IKN #647Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 647, October 18th 2021
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In Today’s Edition, A good week for metals, As for copper…
Fundamental Analysis: Selling Excelsior Mining (MIN.to), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 3q21
production results and general overview.
Stocks to Follow: Argonaut (AR.to), Copper Mountain (CMMC.to), QC Copper & Gold
(QCCU.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Chibougamau Independent Mines (CBG.v, Doré Copper (DCMC.v),
Solaris Resources (SLS.to).
Producer Basket: Overview.
Tiny Dogs: Overview, Precipitate Gold (PRG.v).
Regional Politics: Chile: Election voter intention and the Pandora Papers, Mexico: Resource
nationalism is more heat than light, Sell Ecuador and its Lame Duck President, Some calls on
regional risk.
Market Watching: Tracking the Buy Peru call, Orezone (ORE.v) adds the first ten percent,
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): Concerned Shareholder update.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
I plan to sell my shares in Excelsior Mining (MIN.to) in the coming week. It matters not whether
my heart is heavy, a sale is a sale. See today’s main Fundies section for the details.
In Today’s Edition
 We are very copper today. We have thoughts on why Mr. Shearing was so wrong about
copper last week (and what it means for us), then we consider the immediate future for
the metal and how it’s less important than the intermediate. Goldman Sachs was right
all along, copper is going much higher, and The IKN Weekly was right to coat-tail the
vampire and its Squid Game.
 We also consider two copper names in today’s main Fundamentals section, first the
upcoming conference call from Excelsior Mining (MIN.to) this week gives both reason
and opportunity to exit this trade without ruffling the feathers of the upstanding Steve
Twyerould (too much).
 Also in today’s Fundies, we consider a company that’s subject of frequently requests
and inquiries from you, the esteemed subscriber. With the arrival of its 3q21 production
numbers last week and a potential buying window right now, we run the numbers on
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) and think about Chilean droughts, too.
 As for Regional Politics, we pay special attention to the turmoil caused by the Pandora
Papers in two of South America’s most popular jurisdictions for mining investment,
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Ecuador and Chile. One will fare better, one worse.
A good week for metals
Last week’s intro, with its talk of “target-rich environments” that franked The IKN Weekly’s
“fully bullish credentials” along with other pompous nonsense, came with inordinately lucky
timing: Just hours after the Weekly was sent gold sniffed the air, moved notch higher, then let
fly with a move that saw it return to U$1,800/oz by Thursday lunchtime. So yes, lucky timing
but hardly the first time we’ve banged the table about the washed-out sentiment in gold that
was just waiting for the right catalyst. The metals responded to the miners so all fun to
Thursday, then the US macro news Friday saw another dump in gold, but…
…once again, PM miners showed clear resilience to negative gold trading (and copper decided it
didn’t care at all).
We’d already noted the promising out-performance of the PM miners against gold in the week
leading up to the edition, last week the market finally trigger bullion. It took one of the oldest
equations in the financial book, monetary inflation into an expanding economy, it will tke more
than one day’ data on Friday to argue gold down now.
We’re in for a rise in the price of gold in US Dollar terms, but the same long-term neutrality
arguments for owning gold apply now a to when the metal’s price stagnates. The objective of
its ownership is to hold something that maintains its value over time against other asset
classes, not merely currencies. Hence the old adage about an ounce of gold buying you a good
suit and pair of fine shoes at any point of time since The Renaissance, but there are times when
gold’s near term is more enjoyable than others. That’s what is on-deck now, so we again note
the same practical attitude taken last week; Talk Biden, Trump, Powell, Yellen, Lagarde, Bitcoin,
and the New World Order somewhere else, this isn’t about the finer political or economic
debate on the whys and wherefores of inflation. This is The IKN Weekly, we see inflation and
take it as read, now let’s make money. Set aside long-term “Dollar Debasement” diatribe and
cerebral onanism, instead consider price moves of gold in US Dollar terms and for that, we
2

watch the US inflation rate versus US bonds yields. As long as inflation outstrips interest
rates, we will remain a benign environment for gold ownership with people who usually keep
their capital in USD moving at least some of that to bullion. Until such time, PM miners of all
types are buys.
And as for copper…
…just buy it. See The Copper Basket for more, however the next section is also pure copper
with a look at two juniors we have followed over the long-term.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Selling Excelsior Mining (MIN.to)
This has not been an easy decision and it’s one that’s as much to do with the fact I am retail,
and not an institutional investor playing with larger money on a grander timescale. Therefore,
here up front I want to state for the record that I have every respect for Steve Twyerould and
his team at Excelsior Mining (MIN.to) and indeed, expect them to come good on their plan at
Gunnison and turn the project into a success. The problem is the opportunity cost of holding
dead money in the copper sector at the beginning of what looks like the next leg up in copper’s
bullish 2021 when there are many other places my money tied up in MIN.to could go.
In IKN 642 dated September 12th 2021, the main Fundamental Analysis note was entitled
“Excelsior Mining (MIN.to) changes plan” and considered the news out of the company that
week. Five weeks ago, MIN told us that continued delays to the ramp-up of the Gunnison ISL
copper project in Arizona USA would mean a change of plan, hence the prosaic title of my
analysis. In the end, I decided to remain a holder of Excelsior Mining (MIN.to) in IKN642 but it
was a close-run thing, the note wrapped up this way:
“I’m going to give MIN a few weeks to see if its price responds to a willing market. At
that point, and before Canadian tax loss selling season gets going in earnest, I’ll make
another proactive hold/sell decision. Until then I’m holding, but the jury is out.”
It’s now five weeks on, we’re in the middle of October and about to enter the umbra of Tax
Loss Selling season so, with the company making a significant marketing announcement last
week (1), there’s no more avoiding this call and today is the day. We’re going to stick with last
week’s NR as our basis for today’s argument, as the NR announced a webinar from the
company coming up in three days’ time and here’s the blurb:
“…Stephen Twyerould President & CEO, and Robert Winton SVP and General Manager, will be
presenting during a live-video webinar with a Q&A on Wednesday, October 20th at 11am
(Eastern Daylight Time). The event will be hosted by Amvest Capital.”
The NR then gives us the unofficial agenda for the talk:
Topics to be covered during the webinar presentation will include:
1. Operations
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Gunnison Copper Mine - calcite remedy and implementation for full well-field
commissioning
Johnson Camp Mine (JCM) open pit restart plans
Strong and Harris project PEA and development plans
Other exploration assets
2. Corporate
Corporate strategy to finance JCM Pit restart and build Gunnison Copper Mine raffinate
neutralization plant
Nebari loan
Marketing
Seven specific subjects and, while we have to wait until Wednesday for details and any
potential surprises, we can use MINs list frame what to expect on Wednesday. We take the
subjects one by one:
 Gunnison ISL project: The company’s mention of “calcite remedy and implementation
for full well-field commissioning” suggests we’re going to hear the continuation of MIN’s
efforts to de-bottleneck the ISL recovery process.
 Johnson Camp Mine (JCM) open pit restart plans: Now clearly an active part of near-
term plans, MIN has already outlined how JCM and its easily sourced copper provides a
stop-gap to production while the Gunnison ISL glitches are ironed out
 Strong and Harris project PEA and development plans: MIN also spoke about outlaying
projects on its concession land in September and while MIN has them as separate
items, we can add “Other exploration assets” to this category. Mentioned by both
company and IKN642 in September, they certainly provide organic growth potential to
MIN but they’re not top of the near-term re-organization of priorities and are unlikely to
give us a share price catalyst in 2021.
 Corporate strategy to finance JCM Pit restart and build Gunnison Copper Mine raffinate
neutralization plant. Of all the agenda points of next week’s webinar, this is the most
important. This line item presented nothing new to us, compared to the MIN
announcement of early September.
At the October 20th webinar, we expect MIN to announce that its first test well is now
working, the move to the second five-spot zone at the ISL has been successful and that
the company is now clearing the second zone in the same way as the first, via water
flushing (and raffinates?). That will sound good, but it means MIN will need time to
repeat the process across all its well pattern before putting Gunnison into commercial
production. In IKN642 dated September 12th, we framed like this:
“If MIN gets Gunnison working at a test level, then gets
its debt refinanced, then we allow them an extra year,
this is a winner!”
…it doesn’t sound so attractive, even before we debate on
whether the company will have to eventually raise more capital
to get out of 2022. You want a year? In a bull market for
copper? I’d certainly think twice before buying into that story for
the first time, and as that’s tantamount to the classic “Hold Or
Sell” question we holders must consider, it’s not a good sign.”
Back in IKN642 we were already considering the extra time this would entail on the
MIN story and thoughts of selling (and possibly buying back later) were in the cards.
That’s now the best course of action, as while stop-gap production to bring in cash flow
from the JCM pit is welcome, it not why we bought the stock.
 Nebari loan: On this, there can only be neutral or bad news and it’s almost certain to be
neutral. Due to the delays in bringing Gunnison on line MIN is bound to want to
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refinance their current loan facility with natural resources lender Nebari. We see no
reason why Nebari would refuse such business and therefore, expect the refi that bring
liquidity to the MIN balance sheet. In the unlikely event The Money doesn’t refi, the
optic would be a clear negative.
 Marketing: Hopefully they do a lot and starting from now, because to date MIN hasn’t
done a great job in investor outreach and market awareness. That’s not a massive
criticism, by the way, MIN is a victim of its own circumstances and the company has
had limited its options to get the word out in the last couple. From now on, they have
fewer excuses.
Those are the agenda items for Wednesday and the one that matter most is the timing of
getting Gunnison running and moving toward its mooted Stage 1 objective of 25m lbs/year,
because it’s simply not going to happen in 2021 or 2022. And it’s this point, the opportunity
cost of holding a losing trade for another 12 month before it gets its operations on course, that
is the decider.
Discussion and conclusion
There comes a time when personal goodwill and support for a project meets the hard reality of
capitalism. I wish CEO Twyerould every success at Gunnison and certainly hope to get the
chance to buy back in as the stock climbs higher, perhaps in a rocket move next year as the ISL
starts firing on all cylinders. I’m also 100% sure that MIN will retain all the institutional support
it requires at debt and equity level to fulfil on its plans, as such the stock price isn’t dropping
any further. Indeed, a minor risk of selling this week is getting IKN labelled a bottom-ticker but
hey, big deal. That said, we know that next week’s announcements and webinar will draw
attention to MIN (i.e. the marketing has begun), but the chances of anything radically different
to the scenario outlined by the company in September are low. We’re sure to see the plans
fleshed out and detail for each stage of the new timeline provided, but we’re still talking about
adding a year to the process starting now.
As such, we’re set for a liquidity event in which MIN should attract new interest and buyers,
particularly if it frames well as a turnaround story with strong backers in a bull copper market.
It is, therefore, a good time for me to exit without causing price pressure. This is no longer a
retail trade and I simply cannot leave this cash in my portfolio as dead money while other
copper stocks run higher. Being small retail is normally a handicap against the big house
investor groups, but at least we enjoy entry/exit flexibility, instos etc don’t have such an easy
time in selling a position and buying it back later. We can do that and it’s the final piece in
today’s decision to sell my shares in Excelsior Mining (MIN.to). I can find a better place
for the proceeds by taking a loss and moving on, but always in the hope of a return to MIN
next year. The true bottom line is that I made a bad trade on a good company.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 3q21 production results and general overview
On Tuesday October 12th, the junior copper producer Amerigo Resources filed it 3q21
production numbers (2) and the ten day chart gives the market’s impression of the numbers:
Production was good and the timing was impeccable, luck seeing ARG releasing it data into a
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fast-rising copper price. As a result, the C$1.51 share price this weekend gives a new market
cap of C$274.m (U$22m approx) and it’s our job to consider whether ARG’s new circumstances
justify its new value. We begin at the beginning, with the 3q21 top-line production results from
the company and this chart:
ARG: Production breakdown by source, per qtr
6
92.01
404.5
687.9
7.5
695.9
30.6
109.8
903.5
231.9
625.5
309.11
256.5
747.31
587.4
114.8
395.4
322.8
121.5
301.11
589.4
61.11
75.4
717.5
131.5
13.6
66.6
8
86.6
82.9
71.7
74.8
30.7
16.7
73.7
73.7
26.8
26
24
22
20
18
16
14 12 10
8
6
4
2
0
71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3
Mlb Cu
Slag processing
Cauquenes tailings
Fresh tailings
source: company filings
Along with 0.34m lbs molybdenum, ARG produced a total of 15.99m lbs copper from its two
sources (fresh tailings and Cauquenes tailing production), while deliveries came in at 16.9m lbs
total. We assume ARG sells 16.9m lbs copper and its minor moly credits, with an average
received price for the copper of U$4.23/lb for the quarter. That gives these estimates charts:
Our estimate is for U$71m in gross copper value and a total for expected top line revenues of
U$50.15m, similar to the financial results we saw in 2q21.
ARG: Charges to gross Cu value
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
61q1 61q3 71q1 71q3 81q1 81q3 91q1 91q3 02q1 02q3 12q1 tse12q3
ARG: Gross Cu value vs Total revs, per qtr
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
U$m
Transport
smelting/refining
DET royalties
source: company filings, IKN ests
The main charges to the gross metal value of copper come from the royalties ARG owes to its
big neighbour and supplier of fresh tailings, the massive Codelco El Teniente (DET) mine just
next door. Then smelting/refining and transport is paid and, once the moly credit are backed in,
this explains the approximate $20m difference between the gross metal value of copper
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3
U$m
ARG: Average Cu price for MVC
5
4.44 4.50
4.5 4.08 4.23
4
3.52
3. 3 5 2.652.59 3.003.103.093.16 2.852.772.92 2.672.622.76 2.61 3.04
2.5 2.35
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
source: company filings, IKN ests
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3 tse12q4
U$/lb Cu
source: Company data/IKN ests

produced by ARG and the top-line revenues number. On that subject, with the basic production
numbers in and the cash cost pre-announced (C1 U$1.62/lb) we can estimate the quarter’s
financials. The reality will be known on November 3rd when ARG reports its quarter, this is what
the model comes up with. To the right is the same gross profit information on its own chart, for
easier viewing:
ARG operating costs are mostly fixed in nature and while we can expect some cost creep (as
we’ve seen in other places), there’s nothing untoward:
ARG.to: Costs breakdown
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
7
71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3
U$m
other
G&A+roy
COGS
source: company data, IKN ests
We can do the bottom line to operations by considering this overall margins chart:
ARG.to: Gross, operating and net profits, per qtr
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3
ARG.to: Quarterly Earnings overview
60
55
50
45
40
35 30 25
20 15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
U$m
Gross profit
op profit
Net Income
source: ARG data
ARG is now a stable and reliable profit-making entity and is about to file a 3q21 report that will
be strikingly similar to the last one. Now ARG is on an even keel, its process and cash flow are
nigh-on automatic, only the spot price of copper will truly affect it top line revenues while its
processing remains at these comfortable levels. There is room for production growth and we
know the recently completed upgrade built the capacity for 22mlbs/qtr copper production,
however we don’t expect ARG to expand toward that until 2023. In short ARG has become the
nice little cash cow it always promised to be and to underscore, here’s how the EPS stacks up
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
ARG.to: Gross profit
revenues
COGS
Gross profit
264.8 461.5
97.5
549.3 970.01 279.1
201.6-
900.1 425.3
139.8- 593.0-
389.8 927.51 878.81 721.91 02
22
20
18
16
14
12 10 8 6
4 2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3
source: company data, IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim

(note in USD, for CAD these days, consider ARG capable of 7c/qtr) (below right).
Moving to the balance sheet and while doing so,
applause for CEO Aurora Davidson and how she
has turned this company around. For sure, CEO
Davidson’s arrival coincided with better copper
prices, but ARG now has a far better debt book
and liabilities position, liquidity is no longer an
issue and the way in which the company is
collecting cash means it will have new and varied
options at its disposal to add value to shares. If
one also considers the financial mess and liquidity
suck she inherited from ex-CEO Henderson (now
screwing Great Panther (GPR.to) (GPL) in the
same ignorant way), I have nothing but admiration for the financial strength now on show at
ARG.
We add IKN Proprietary Model Estimates (a.k.a. best guesses) for 3q21 to each chart and begin
with assets:
ARG.to: Total Assets
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
8
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
fixed
other current
Inventory
Trade/Rec
cash&eq
This company is adding value to itself after two years of failure. While fixed asset values are
rising a bit (good) the size compared to the rest of ARG suffocates the visual above, so here’s
the same dataset for currents only:
ARG.to: Current assets
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
ARG.to: Earning per share, per qtr
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
-0.02
-0.04
-0.06
other current
Inventory
Trade/Rec
cash&eq
Cash is flying higher and, according to last week’s NR, cash and restricted is now $71m. As CEO
Davidson’s excellent refi deal includes holding far less cash as restricted on its books, liquidity
has improved further.
As for liabilities, nothing much has changed. ARG continues to pay down its secured debt at
around $10m per year and does so comfortably, the result showing as decreasing Long Term
liabilities:
71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3
U$
source: company filings, IKN ests

ARG.to: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
9
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liab
current liab
Current liabilities are up slightly but it’s no biggie, ARG could address that by a clear-out of
trade payables using treasury, if required. With that, we get to the most impressive chart of the
ARG suite:
ARG.to: Working capital
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3
U$m
source company filings
The transformation of working capital in 2021 cannot be understated; this was the company
that stayed perennially underwater and
ARG.to: Shares Out
dependent on the good graces of banks and 190
lenders. Suddenly and for the first time since 185
the expansion project was announced, ARG
180
has plenty of liquidity and can now start
investing its capital on discretionary projects, 175
thereby adding value.
170
165
The final balance sheet chart shows how
shares out have hardly budged, a few minor 160
additions have the number now at 181.79m.
On this score ARG has always been well-run
(founder/chair Zeitler is a smart business brain
and will not dilute you out).
Discussion and conclusion
At this point, we cut short the argument to explain the two reasons why I am not buying
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to). Even though ARG is now a steady-state producer of Chile’s
number one product during a highly profitable period for the metal. Its costs are predictable
and leave impressive operating margin at $4.00/lb+ copper and at this weekend’s C$1.51, runs
a forward price/earnings of 5.4X that will likely drop as long as copper consolidates at over
U$4.50/lb. Its minable supply is for all intents and purposes indefinite and under CEO Davidson,
ARG is now financially disciplined (for the first time?). Flattering intro done, now for the two
things that stop me from buying ARG shares:
1) Copper Mountain (CMMC.to) is cheaper. When ARG is 5.4X P/E CMMC is 3.8X, it gives
better leverage at the current price deck, its growth pipeline is unbeatable, its financials
71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3
source: company filings, IKN ests
serahs
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snoillim

are good enough to expand organically and become three times the company in ten
years. I cannot buy ARG because I would wonder why I wasn’t buying CMMC with the
same money.
2) The drought. See below.
We are now in the 13th consecutive year of drought in this Central region of Chile, which has
been through other sustained drought periods before (this comment has zero politics; party,
climate or otherwise) but it’s now being considered endemic. That means a whole different way
of thinking about water in the Central Chile region, not just for mining and frankly, ARG was
built for other weather conditions. It is dependent on its own water supply for production and
also somewhat at the mercy of its big neighbour El Teniente (DET), which as we saw not so
long ago will cut water supply to tailings (and ARG) if required.
We are now in October and the main rainy season is now over. It’s good to report the main
September rains showed, which helped water tables across the region. But with data now
compiled fears are growing that they won’t have enough water to make it round the next
seasonal cycle. However, they weren’t as strong as required and while ARG has made recent
announcements to the effect that it has enough water supply, the latest from El Teniente is
more concerning (3) (4). According to an internal report compiled by El Teniente that made it
into hands of journalists, accumulated snow volume (i.e. how they measure precipitation at
altitude), the 344cm of snowfall in 2021 including September is 27% below the average for the
last seven years. We now quote the newspaper report quoting the DET report:
“In this scenario, they warn that despite the last round of rainfall “it cannot in any way
be assured that the water supply El Teniente require to sustain its 2022 production
plan”. The drought has forced the State-run company to reinforce its water use training,
look for water savings and top leaks, for example in tailings dams or filter tanks. “We
are in a better position thanks to the last rainfalls of September, but in no way can we
think that we have enough supply for next year.”
In other words, if the lighter rainfalls around the turn of the year don’t show DET has a problem
that will manifest sooner, rather than later in 2022. That means ARG has one, too.
I may be over blowing the threat of drought to ARG in 2022 and we do know that it 4q21 won’t
be affected. However, this is now a long-term problem and those drag on company share prices
due to the higher risk multiple one must pay. In any case, up in BC the Copper Mountain mine
has all the water it needs and then some. Amerigo is a great little company doing all the right
things, but preferences win out.
Stocks to Follow
We had 12 out of 15 portfolio moves in the right direction and eight of them big winners, which
means I get to report that the sub-standard performance of the Stocks to Follow list we
mentioned last week was left in the dust. In its place, a strong rebound in most portfolio stocks
and importantly, plenty of big percentage wins from the strongest-weighted stocks. There were
two losers on the week (QCCU.v, MENE.v) and one other was unchanged (ALDE.v), which mean
12 winners from 15 and that is a good thing, as are the double figure percentage movers
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to up 23.7%), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v up 20.8%), Trilogy Metals (TMQ up
20.1%), Minera Alamos (MAI.v up 15.7%), Minera IRL (MIRL.cse up 12.5%), Argonaut Gold
(AR.to up 12.1%), Altiplano Metals (APN.v up 10.3%) and Aurelius (AUL.v up 10.2%).
We currently have 15 open positions, our self-imposed limit. Nine of our open stocks are in
positive territory since inception/to the personal cost average, six are in the red and we’re
moving back to a better balance in the portfolio.
10

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.59 181.0% $1.14 tgt Aug'20, #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.64 -22.9% $1.30 tgt set Jul21, building now
Recommended stocks (In order of preference)
Copper Mountain CMMC.to STR BUY C$3.42 18-Jun-21 C$3.76 9.9% Top value Cu play, overweight
Argonaut Gold AR.to STR BUY C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$3.06 3.1% Veyr cheap on Magino promise
Trilogy Metals TMQ STR BUY U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$2.15 16.8% Cu for 2021, going well
QC Copper &Gold QCCU.v STR BUY C$0.26 25-Apr-21 C$0.385 48.1% already a double. Easy hold
Strategic Metals SMD.v BUY C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.315 -25.0% Canadian land bet/Value trap?
Excelsior Mining MIN.to BUY C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.50 -46.3% Delayed, great value if it works
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.68 16-May-21 C$0.60 -11.8% Promo begins Q4
Altiplano Metals QCCU.v BUY C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.32 3.2% Cheap entry, about to re-rate
Royal Road Min. RYR.v BUY C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.28 80.6% Model paying off in Nica
Great Bear Res GBR.v BUY C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$16.26 2.7% Binary M&A trade, wait for print
Aurelius Min. AUL.v hold/sell? C$0.75 28-Jun-20 C$0.27 -64.0% has until its 43-101 to improve
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.09 -53.8% CEO change will move stock
Long-term non-mining hold
Mene Inc. MENE.v LT Hold C$0.68 6-Dec-20 C$0.87 42.6% LT bet, added again July'21
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Mining NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Resources ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
2015 to 2020 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered stocks but not many, frankly. This notes section tends to
be more interesting when the market is dropping.
Argonaut Gold (AR.to): This continues to be extremely cheap, even after the 12.1%
rebound last week. The bet place to add gold exposure for a 4q21 move.
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to): Here’s a link to the (5) webcast for the Copper Mountain
conference call, Monday, November 1st at 7:30am PT in which senior management will discuss
the CMMC 3q21 results (that they plan to release that same morning). Last week’s move is just
for starters, CMMC can’t stay this low much longer with copper where it is.
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): One of only two losers on the week, QCCU dropped by three
cents in a bull market for copper and we don’t care, it was another excellent performance by
this breakout company. After speaking this weekend with CEO Stewart, this desk can reveal
that between the upsized flow-through financing, the successful block sale of Baselode (FIND.v)
shares (enjoying their own mega run) and warrants due to be made fully paid-up shares, QCCU
will have raised around C$18m and the CEO says that’s enough for the time being. He’s shelved
the other planned financing (the pre-book filled to around $10m) and will not raise any more
capital this year, treasury is now enough to cover plans. This news alone should be enough to
11

get the stock past 50c next week.
The Copper Basket
After forty-one weeks of 2021, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 35.80% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.08 107.53 1462.41 13.60 123.7%
2 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 1.81 207.5 780.20 3.76 107.7%
3 Oroco Res OCO.v 1.85 186.96 545.92 2.92 57.8%
4 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.25 87.737 385.17 4.39 35.1%
5 Western Copper WRN.to 1.57 135.798 300.11 2.21 40.8%
6 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.80 181.79 274.50 1.51 88.8%
7 Excelsior Min. MIN.to 1.12 273.585 136.79 0.50 -55.4%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.07 101.85 103.89 1.02 -4.7%
9 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.115 438.56 89.90 0.205 78.3%
10 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.455 125.24 75.14 0.60 31.9%
11 Doré Copper DCMC.v 1.00 53.304 47.44 0.89 -11.0%
12 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.45 68.281 39.60 0.58 28.9%
13 Chakana Cop PERU.v 0.60 111.41 37.88 0.34 -43.3%
14 Chibougamau CBG.v 0.165 53.077 12.21 0.23 39.4%
15 US Copper USCU.v 0.105 87.53 10.94 0.125 19.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 35.80%
What a difference a week makes. Thirteen of 60% The Copper Basket 2021, weekly evolution
our 15 Copper Basket stocks rose and the 55%
50%
other two were UNCH (CCCM.v, ALDE.v), a 45%
rare week indeed when there are zero losers 40%
35%
out of 15 and an indication of the strength of 30%
last week’s move. As for names, we’re not 25%
20%
doing the long list but even by limiting to
15%
stocks that returned a double figure 10%
5%
percentage win, we’re still at seven:
0%
 Copper Mountain(CMMC.to) up 23.7%
 Oroco Resources (OCO.v) up 21.7%
 Western Copper (WRN.to) up 17.6%
 Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) up 17.1%
 Marimaca Copper (MARI.to) up 16.5%
 US Copper & Gold (USCU.v) up 13.6%
 Regulus Resources (REG.v) up 13.3%
All good stuff and all driven by full-on breakout in copper prices:
12
ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3tco ht01 ht71
source: IKN calcs

You’ve probably read a whole bunch of wire reports about the breakout move in copper last
week, hopefully enough of them mentioned the tightness in SHFE stocks to remind who has
been banging on this table for what seems like forever. Unlike a certain Mr. Neil Shearing of
Capital Economics, who made the open blog last week (6) after timing his bearish copper
presentation to the LME Copper Week audience almost to perfection. Here’s how the post went:
“…Neil Shearing, chief economist of Capital Economics, who on Monday warned us all
that prices for copper were dropping and 2022 demand weakness in China would
cause an extended price plateau. To quote the man, “In the short-term we’re facing
demand weakening and prices falling in the copper sector.”
Painfully bad timing, but it gets a mention here because there’s a serious point to make.
Shearing’s argument was reasonable up to a point, he saw a near-term demand lag building
that would cause a glut into 2022, before copper demand picked up and went into the oft-
predicted supply shortage as for 2023. As economic models go that’s fine, but what he failed to
grasp is that copper is a fungible material, traded on world markets and its price os not a
reflection of now, rather a result of speculation on the future. Or put it another way: If very
deep-pocketed traders see a large short position growing on December 2021 futures and are
powerful enough to take control of the market from now until copper demand picks up, they
can keep rolling their contracts over at higher price and cause near-term shorts no end of pain
and suffering.
Copper did not go up last week on December 2021 end-user demand, under today’s market
major influence is more likely the 2024 end user. That’s what Neil Shearing misses and why his
bearish copper call isn’t just wrong this week, but will remain wrong for the rest of the year.
Hopefully he learns from his mistakes.
Now for the weekly update on world copper inventory levels, with data from Chile’s Cochilco:
 World copper stocks made a significant drop (again), but this time it got a lot of market
attention. The total in the three official systems took dropped by 26,285 metric tonnes
(mt) to close the week at 274,269mt, with all three houses pointing in the same
direction.
 A new low for Shanghai SHFE, which dropped 8,394mt to finish the week at 41,668mt.
The charts below will tell you more, but we’re as uber-tight as last weekend.
 For the second week running, the LME copper pit made trade headlines. To begin,
stocks dropped by 17,850mt to close the week at 181,400mt, but that’s only half the
story as those, moved up 54kmt to 167,120mt. If this number drops hard before
November, with a further copper spike and Bloomie/CNBC headlines to go with it, don’t
say you weren’t warned.
 The Comex made another tiny move, this down it was down by 41 metric tonnes to
close at 51,226mt.
Here’s the Shanghai-only inventories chart:
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
13
31'13ceD ht9 ht81 ht72 ht5tco ht41 dn22 dr3yam ht21 ht02 ht92 ht7bef ht71 ht62 ht4peS ht31 ht92 ht9 ht81 ht72 ht5von ht41 ht52 ht01 ht91 ht82 ht6naJ ht71 ht62 ht4gua ht31 dn22 202ts1ram ht01 ht91 ht72 0202ht6ced ht41 ht52 1202ht4luj ht21
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco

We’re back at record lows, while the segmented chart shows the widening gap between stocks
in any normal year and SHFE stocks today:
MT Cu SHFE copper inventory levels, 2021
300000
280000
260000
240000
220000
200000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000 2021
80000 2020
60000 2019
40000
2018
20000
0
1718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142
source: Cochilco data
Normally as Q4 kicks off, we get a brief period of stock renewal and consolidation in the
inventories system, as middlemen brace for the key end-year purchasing period and work out
their strategies. That shows in the above lines but 2021 is different, over 100,000 tonnes of
copper that would normally be in SHFE warehouses simply is not there.
It’s a far more nuanced subject (they always are), but the quick three-liner on cancelled
warrants for commodities contracts, in this case copper, ostensibly gauge the amount of copper
about to leave the warehouses. However, the cancelled warrant mechanism is also used by
traders and brokerage houses to spoof demand, as a seat may take out a long position on a
large amount of copper and then roll over the open position and leave the physical in the
copper in the warehouse indefinitely. With that in mind, we note that at the start of October,
LME had 217,175mt of copper in its warehouses, with 102,975mt of the total under cancelled
warrant. Today, LME inventory has dropped by 36kmt to 181,400mt, but the total under
cancelled warrant has risen markedly, to 167,250mt. That’s 92.2% of total inventory and
smacks of speculative bull move. My best guess is there’s a short squeeze brewing around the
December copper contracts, but that’s just me.
Now for notes on some basket stocks, starting with the two considered last week:
Chibougamau Independent Mines (CBG.v) and Doré Copper (DCMC.v): Along with
QCCU, the trio of stocks we could consider “Chibougamau Camp Plays” failed to follow through
on the week before last:
CBG did okay, but small volumes and no change of trading range. DCMC flat-lined after its news
pop of the week before and QCCU had a great week in every aspect except finishing share
price. So they moved for different reasons, but it’s also fair to say the concept of a new mining
camp hasn’t taken off investment public perceptions, not yet at least.
Overall, QCCU is providing a lead but it’s going to need real money entering other stocks to
create “ChibouCamp” As yet, CBG and DCMC haven’t taken off for the same reasons outlined in
The Tiny Dogs today (below).
14

Solaris Resources (SLS.to): This may turn out to be the exception that proves Ecuador’s
rule, my nagging suspicion that Chinese money
drives all the trading and share upside would
mean the company didn’t have so much to
worry about under a newly unstable political
scenario and potential change of government.
Then again, it’s very expensive:
It also announced another 1km assay of
excellent copper grade last week, even that
couldn’t help its under-performance to COPX
though very heavy trading (not the auto-trade
patterns mentioned in recent editions). Take
profits, people.
The Producer Basket
After forty-one weeks of 2021, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 10.71% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out Mkt Cap (U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 59.89 805 45.91 57.03 -4.8%
2 Barrick GOLD 22.78 1778.04 34.00 19.12 -16.1%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 70.51 244.187 14.02 57.43 -18.6%
4 Kirkland Lake KL 41.27 267.056 12.28 45.98 11.4%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 7.34 1261.07 7.71 6.11 -16.8%
6 Endeavour Min EDV.to 29.62 252.568 6.63 31.52 6.4%
7 Pan American PAAS 34.71 210.262 5.29 25.17 -27.5%
8 B2Gold BTG 5.60 1051.697 4.15 3.95 -29.5%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 8.75 392.739 3.17 8.08 -7.7%
10 Pretium Res PVG 11.48 187.833 2.07 11.00 -4.2%
Prices in U$ except EDV.to (share price in CAD$ and mkt cap in approx USD) Port. avg -10.71%
The producer basket trails the GDX by less than one percent, the closest we’ve been to our
benchmark and annual challenge line since February and, considering we were over 6% in the
hole in July, there’s a reasonable chance of putting the year in the win column (unlike 2020):
The 2021 Producer Basket: Percentage difference between
GDX benchmark and basket (negative = IKN basket ahead)
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
As for the week, when GDX launches by 6.03% on the week and GDXJ by 6.89%, you’d expect
the results to be positive and indeed, all ten of our basket stocks were weekly winners. Most of
the improvements congregate around the 4% to 6% frame, with the least-best on the week
15
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t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3tcO ht01 ht71
The 2021 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
20%
comparative to GDX control
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
source: IKN calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq/TSX data
ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3tcO ht01 ht71
gdx control
source: Google, IKN Calcs

being Barrick (GOLD up 3.2%) and the out-performers Alamos (AGI up 9.0%), B2Gold (BTG up
8.2%) and Kinross (KGC up 7.8%). For what it’s worth, Kirkland Lake (KL up 6.04%) matched
the GDX blow-for-blow and the two finished just one hundredth of a percent apart on the week.
The AEM/KL deal continues as the momentum behind our suddenly out-performing sector.
No stock notes this week, after three weeks of AEM/KL drama I’m bored of trying to have an
opinion that counts on the big caps.
The Tiny Dogs
After forty-one weeks of 2021, the Tiny Dogs show a gain of 1.31% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Antler Gold ANTL.v 0.205 66.365 10.95 0.165 -19.5%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.045 163.975 8.20 0.05 11.1%
Constantine Met CEM.v 0.17 45.4 15.21 0.335 97.1%
Contact Gold C.v 0.115 240.757 13.24 0.055 -52.2%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.22 40 4.80 0.12 -45.5%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.045 230.79 16.16 0.07 55.6%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.240 106.241 10.09 0.095 -60.4%
QC Copper QCCU.v 0.315 105 40.43 0.385 22.2%
Red Pine Expl RPX.v 0.400 95.806 50.78 0.53 32.5%
Warrior Gold WAR.v 0.090 91.818 5.97 0.065 -27.8%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 1.31%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
Despite big upmoves in mining stocks last week, the Tiny Dogs basket average dropped slightly
due to four losers (ANTL.v, CEM.v, QCCU.v,
RPX.v) and three UNCH stocks (BAY.v, GDP.v, 20% Tiny Dogs, 2021 weekly tracker
WAR.v), with just three winners (C.v up 10.0%, 16%
MTU.v up 16.7%, PRG.v up 18.8%) and not even 12%
the large percentage moves in all those winners 8%
could save the overall average. Its performance 4%
remains in the green 2021 YTD, but only just. 0%
-4%
This overall drop and under-performance may -8%
surprise, but as market phenomena go isn’t as -12%
rare as you may think. The signal isn’t a great
one either, as a big move in the sector produces
FOMO from cash stuck in small, illiquid and often
underwater trades. When large cap pop and tinycaps drop, it shows investors throwing in the
towel and moving cash from one stock ticker to another (quite likely one of those that has
16
ts1
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t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3tcO ht01 ht71
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

moved higher). While this is recommendable at a personal portfolio level (“cut the losers, let
the winners run”) seeing it happen across the board is an indication that there’s less new
money entering the junior mining sector. Instead of some hosepipe of cash coming top-down
from GDX/J to feed us all, a decent slug of trades last week were fuelled by money that’s
already inside the sector and merely looking for a new home
Also, as the year draws to a close, Canadian investors of all sizes begin to consider tax loss
sales on their portfolio and as this is exploreco speculation, rare is a year without at least a
couple of chunky losers. In other words, it’s that time of year when the rich get richer and the
poor get poorer, investors dump losers and re-deploy the remnant cash in new trades or
winning positions. It will take sustained new money in the sector to inflate these, the tiniest cap
stocks and one or two weeks of GDX improvement isn’t enough.
Precipitate Gold (PRG.v): A sharp +18.8% move last week, spurred by the new on October
12th (7) that PRG was (we quote)…“pleased to announce it has secured exclusive rights to
acquire a 100% interest in three mineral exploration
licenses totalling 2,500 hectares making up the Ace Gold
Project (the "Ace Project" or the "Project") located at the
northern end of the Exploits Subzone (Dunnage Tectonic
Zone) of north-central Newfoundland, Canada.”
This marks the second property for the company in the
zone and the real start of PRG’s pivot away from DR and
to the hot Newfoundland region. The share price moved
up all right but perhaps a better look I the six month
chart (right), which shows the pop didn’t come with that
much volume. There are plenty of bombed-out holders of
this stock, which could depress the stock price as they look for the Tax Loss exit between now
and the end of the year (recall PRG traded 25c and above until February). One to watch in
2022, perhaps.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Chile: Election voter intention and the Pandora Papers
The story was unfolding this time last weekend while your author put IKN646 together and we
made a small mention to President Sebastian Piñera’s mounting problems around the Pandora
Papers leak. However, this weekend a note is obligatory, as the affair looks set to bring down
Chile’s President in disgrace. Reuters starts us off with the straight journalism take (8):
SANTIAGO, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Chilean opposition lawmakers launched impeachment
proceedings against President Sebastian Pinera on Wednesday over possible irregularities in the
sale of a mining company, after new details emerged about the deal in the Pandora Papers leak.
The move comes after Chile's public prosecutor said this month it would open an investigation
into possible bribery-related corruption charges as well as tax violations related to the sale.
There’s more of the story on that link, but let’s get to the point:
 In 2010, Piñera was involved in the consortium that sold the contentious Dominga
mine. It so happens the buyer is a personal friend of Piñera’s.
 One of the terms of the contract was that the final payment would be made once the
project had received its environmental permits
 This happened under the Piñera government, while at the same time a nearby mine
project had it permits denied for reasons that should have affected the Dominga
project’s permit as well.
17

 The transaction took place via offshore accounts in the British Virgin Isles and was only
discovered with the Pandora Papers leaks.
There’s more than that, but you get the idea and though President Piñera has made his public
denials and claims of innocence, he is truly in it this time. The scandal got full views on
Wednesday when opposition congress member and long-established figure of the “Bachelet
Left”, Jaime Naranjo filed the official impeachment papers against Sebastian Piñera and at the
presser, flanked by politicians of all parties left and right in Chile, laid heavy rhetoric on his
President. We quote (translated) (9):
“There are two causes for this constitutional accusation: For openly infringing the
Constitution in relation to the principal of probity, and for seriously compromising the
honour of the nation.”
That last charge is serious beans in Chile and we can expect the impeachment bill to make swift
passage through the lower house. The upper Senate may find reason to delay matters and
allow the 2021 Presidential election to go ahead before pointing the spotlight on Piñera, but the
mysteries are more around timing than doubts of his innocence or guilt. Piñera is in trouble, no
matter what happens to the Presidency in 2021 or 2022. The scandal is also having an effect on
voter intention for the Presidential election, now just six weeks away. Last week saw a raft of
surveys from pollsters Cadem, Criteria, Tú Influyes and Pulso Ciudadano in Chile (it has a more
sophisticated political arena than most LatAm countries) and the polls all pointed to the same
dynamic. We’ll stick with Chile’s flagship pollster, Plaza Publica/CADEM, for the visual (10):
That’s a busy graphic, but shows the recent poll results in order of time (left to right) for each
of the main candidates with the latest poll on the right. We have:
 Gabriel Boric (left wing) on 21 points and almost certainly in the round two run-off
 José Kast (right) on 18 points. Kast is a hard right-winger who has risen sharply in the
polls recently at the expense of the Piñera party candidate, Sichel. As for what “hard
right” means, in Chile it’s “fan of General Pinochet”.
 Yasna Provoste (centre left) on 13 points. The Michelle Bachelet dauphine is
fighting Kast for second place and the key run-off spot.
 Sebastian Sichel on 10 points. Sichel is the Piñera party choice and has suffered
from the fall-out as his boss’s government limps to a close.
This weekend also saw the first live TV debate between the main candidates and Gabriel Boric
retained his front-runner status with a competent display (by all accounts). With the radical
right Kast now likely to make the second place for the run-off, Boric is now red hot favourite to
be Chile’s next President and pull the country back left.
18

Mexico: Resource nationalism is more heat than light
Last week, Mexico’s AMLO again put the mining industry on the defensive as a law project was
proposed to stop concessions of “strategic minerals” from being awarded in the country. The
proposal is centred is unlikely to pass, but caused a ruckus because the focus is the hot new
metal for the green revolution, lithium. Here’s Reuters (11):
“The proposed legislation, which could still be amended and would need a two-thirds majority in
Congress, says the government will no longer award concessions to mine lithium “and other
strategic minerals” needed for the country’s energy transition. It does not provide a list of the
minerals nor what it plans as an alternative to concessions.”
Overall, this isn’t one to be overly concerned about. We move to Gustavo Álvarez, mining
commentator for the regional newspaper El Sol de Hermosillo and often used as a touchstone
for Mexico mining industry opinion on matters (he’s smart, knows his sector, pro-mining and
anti-AMLO), who quietly (12) pointed out the Red Herring nature of lithium in Mexico; There
are only eight Li concessions in the whole country and only one of them is active (Bacanora,
recently funded by Chinese capitals). The project-stage Li companies in Mexico are sub-
standard compared to peers in the hot South America lithium destinations (Chile, Argentina,
Bolivia etc), which suggests the legislation will need to cover more than lithium if Mexico wants
to tax itself into the green energy argument. Other strategic minerals may sound like legislation
for new lines such as rare earths (REEs) or vanadium, the industry is concerned that AMLO is
about to take a leaf out of Chile’s congressional book and include copper under the heading of
strategic minerals.
It’s perfectly possible that copper gets included in the mix, even more possible that AMLO
opens his mouth on the idea and talks up law reforms focused on resource nationalism.
However, neither should be taken too seriously at this stage and in any case, the legislative
passage would be at least a year.
Sell Ecuador and its Lame Duck President
Even by the standards of the Mini Basket Case company, the reversal of fortunes seen by new
President Guillermo Lasso in the last couple of weeks has been remarkable. We reported the
end of his honeymoon period last weekend, since then his problems have multiplied on a daily
basis. Long story short, President, Lasso is up to his neck in financial revelations coming from
the massive Pandora Papers leak and, perhaps (and only perhaps) Sebastian Piñera of Chile
aside, is the worst-affected governor in the LatAm region. So far, at least.
Not because Piñera is facing lesser charges; Far from it, the man is deeply in a doo-doo but as
his administration is ending just a few months, less institutional damage gets done to Chile (and
any new government will bring its own momentum into 2022). The issue here is that Lasso is
only months into his administration, one that promised to fight the Correa/Moreno governments
corruption and sleaze. Instead, with the President directly lined to 14 offshore accounts, he’s
the image of the Lame Duck President who will be too busy fighting a suddenly hostile
Congress and Public Opinion to get anything done.
But we first focus on an article published in The Economist last week (13), as it tried to be the
“thought leader” for opinion on Lasso and his government. Laughably biased, it couldn’t have
been cosier with Lasso if it had been written by his publicist, with TE offered an “exclusive, sit-
down interview” with the President inside the Presidential Palace. Under the title of “Guillermo
Lasso’s Battle Against Populism” (I kid you not) and once the scene was set, here’s how the
note presents Lasso’s problems:
But the past fortnight has been difficult. A fight among gangs inside a prison ended
with 119 inmates dead. The board of the National Assembly sent back without debate
Mr Lasso’s key initiative, a bill to raise taxes and loosen restrictions on labour. And
then the president was named as the controller of a number of offshore companies in a
global trove of documents dubbed the Pandora Papers.
Last week Mr Lasso sat down with Bello in the unassuming presidential palace in the
whitewashed colonial heart of Quito. He was unabashed by the setbacks to his plans.
“I presented myself as I am and the Ecuadorean people voted for me,” he said. “They
19

realised that we needed a change and that we couldn’t continue with this totalitarian,
populist model that has impoverished Ecuadorean citizens.”
Simply wonderful. As prone to typos myself, I’d better point out that “realised” is spelled that
way in Perfidious Albion. But more fun is to learn Lasso’s “fortnight has been “difficult” but he
was “unabashed by setbacks” so hey…no biggie and all part of the rough and tumble. If you
read The Economist last week you’d have come away with the impression that the new guy in
Ecuador had hit few bumps in the road due to one of those prison riots they get over there
from time to time. Then some sort of political agenda setback and a fight with Congress, and
then being connected with big Pandora Papers thing. Whereas in fact…
 The prison riot is better called a systemic collapse, with many institutions under the
de facto control of well-funded “Mexico Style” narco gangs (to use a crude analogy).
 An extremely serious multi-prison riot with over 120 inmates dead, many
decapitated. The riots continues to this weekend and with four prisoners committed
suicide last week in another highly publicized case.
 As for the “political setback”, that was the wholesale and abrupt rejection of Lasso’s
centrepiece reform and economic stimulus legislation. The Bill was already
contentious inside Ecuador’s minority-controlled Congress and nobody was sure
whether it would pass, but the flaring up of the Pandora Papers saw Congress use
the opportunity to vote down his Bill, virtually sight unseen and before any debate.
The way in which different and normally warring political factions joined to reject
Lasso’s reform Bill wholesale gives an idea of the severity of the problem.
So scrub The Economist’s image of minor misdoings from your mind, Guillermo Lasso is in
serious political and legal problems- The direct cause are revelations in the so-called Pandora
Papers, the massive leak of information connects Guillermo Lasso directly to 14 offshore
companies and/or accounts and let us state this part in bold type and underlined so that it fully
understood, the ownership of offshore accounts or un-named offshore companies is illegal in
Ecuador. Leave the morality questions out, leave the mysteries about why the accounts were
held or what they were used for, in Ecuador the simple ownership is a crime and every
financially sophisticated Ecuadorian knows this. They also know that if you are caught using an
offshore you’re immediately in serious trouble and that applies to the President of the country
(who should know better).
In Ecuador late 2021, Lasso’s strongest opposition is the Rafael Correa-led party and Araujo
affiliations that Lasso beat in this years Presidential. Unsurprisingly, they have led the calls to
investigate the veracity of the Pandora Papers information and, if found to be true, begin
indictment proceedings against President Lasso. So when the prison riots wrested control of
crime from the hands of the President and made him look weak, he blamed the opposition for
inciting the riots. And when the Nebot, Correa and Indigenous groups in Parliament got
together to reject his centrepiece law bill last week, Lasso stripped away any pretence and
(quite hilariously, to be honest) reverted to the South America Presidential typecast. He accused
this loose group of opposition figures of plotting a coup-d’etat against him and against
democracy itself, which he called a “Triple Conspiracy”. In a TV interview planned to address
the country’s “general instability” (rather than talk about Pandora Papers), Lasso showed some
jaw-dropping political naïveté (translation quoted) (14):
“The conspiracy starts with Correa, continues with Nebot and along it comes Iza, who
the the three interested parties in causing a coup d’etat to democracy.”
The three in Lasso’s crosshairs are ex-President Rafael Correa and his party (natch), then right
wing businessman and politico Jaime Nebot and his party (and Congressional bloc) as well as
indigenous leader Leonidas Iza the new leader of indigenous umbrella group CONAIE
(Confederación de Nacionalidades Indígenas del Ecuador) and force behind the parliamentary
Pachakutik Party. Lasso’s “Triple Conspiracy” accusations were greeted with hoots of derision
and scorn by all, so instead of quoting the classic LatAm politicos for comment we look to the
20

third member of Lasso’s imaginary conspiracy: Since Yaku Pérez stepped away from CONAIE,
Leonidas Iza has returned to its limelight so we’ll leave it to him to make sense of Lasso’s triple
trouble accusations (15) (translated):
“President Guillermo Lasso is panicking, he’s trying to govern from speculation, he’s
avoiding the accusations from the Pandora Papers and is looking for scapegoats, due
to his incapacity to solve (our) economic problems.”
Iza went on to remind Ecuador that Lasso relied on his support to win the Presidency against
Andres Araujo and even thanked Iza for his true support at the time, wondered why he’d
changed his tune so quickly, then finished this way:
“Lasso says there are mafias or a triumvirate conspiring against him. This is false,
that’s just a smokescreen. The President is trying to create ghosts and boogiemen, the
problem is that he cannot answer the accusations made against him for the Pandora
Papers.”
Quite right, Mr. Iza and make no mistake, readers of The IKN Weekly, the Pandora Papers may
have already dropped off your news cycle up North but they will have serious repercussions in
South (Latin?) America. Chile’s Piñera is in serious trouble, but that fades next to the lame duck
Lasso, his panic showing when he stated he hadn’t used an offshore since 2017 (i.e. the
constitutional reform). That mean by implication that he did before 217…and that’s still a crime!
And here is the reason behind Lasso’s sharp drop in popularity, he cam in on an anti-corruption
ticket and within months, has been caught red-handed doing the same type of shady backhand
dealings and cover-ups as all the others. His image is in ruins and the best you can expect from
the Lasso government from now is a Dead Duck (not even lame) that clings onto the
Presidential Palace for four years and gets nothing done, á la Moreno. There are plenty of
worse scenarios than that, too; at the other end of the scale he could be kicked out on
impeachment charges in weeks, with all the political turmoil that would imply.
This has practical implications for us, fellow mining stock investors and I am fully aware of my
Cassandra status on this subject: I’ve watched from the sidelines while stocks such as Solaris
have shot higher and all or political reasons, my view being that The Mini Basket Case Country
is an accident waiting to happen. Well folks, it’s happening now so do yourself a favour and
hear me this once time on Ecuador. Sell it, as the widespread opposition to anything proposed
by Lasso will stop any meaningful reform or advances and that includes the mining industry; all
those widely trumpeted improvements will not happen and come the end of Lasso’s presidency,
be it in weeks or years, the only thing he’d have done for the sector is to have brought the
country back into CIADI/ICSID, because he got to sign that into law before this scandal broke.
Some calls on Regional Risk
Quite the theme at the moment, so let’s take a few lines and nail a few colours to the wall.
Rounding off today’s Regional Politics sections is this, an op-ed and thoughts on the current
risk/reward of buying into the mining sectors of four main South America countries.
Sell Ecuador: Basically, see above. My blanket “Avoid Ecuador” call makes me a bad trader
of the country’s mining companies, as the missed opportunities of the last 24 months show.
Smarter traders of Ecuador miners ignore the risk, hold through the noise and only sell when
something serious happens, something that immediately changes the country’s direction. That
was last week, sell the place and go find somewhere less risky for your mining money.
Buy Peru: With the worst now behind it (unless Pedro Castillo decides otherwise), Peru is a
prime example of a regional jurisdictions with overly discounted political risk. Yes, you’re
going to get plenty of political noise and anyone with a Right wing agenda will have plenty of
meat on their bone; it will be a Left wing government trying (and mostly failing) to push its
preferred laws through a hostile Congress. But the people at FreePort get it already, as do
those at Gold Fields (GFI) and their C-suite comments of “we can live in that environment” are
the ones you want from level-headed career miners.
Buy Chile: Its heightened political risk is for other reasons, with the election and what it
21

means to the Constitutional Assembly, plus the Piñera scandal now unfolding, making thing
volatile in the country. Both these things will pass and Chile will remain LatAm’s #1 mining
jurisdiction and this is a buying window. Mining stocks with Chilean exposure are being unduly
discounted (especially precious metals stocks, with zero new laws or royalties coming), prices
are cheaper than they should be and Chile offers great value today. It’s that simple.
…and yes, Buy Argentina: First, this:
I hate myself for loving you
Can't break free from the things that you do
I wanna walk but I run back to you
That's why I hate myself for loving you
(Joan Jett & the Blackhearts, 1988)
With that off my chest, the reasoning: Under Alberto Fernandez you have the national and
most of the regional leaders under the same party roof, that’s a big step forward and allows
reform and advancement of mining where the regional governors are pro-mining already.
That’s to say, be choosy and stay with the provinces with proven pro-mining track records:
San Juan, Santa Cruz, Jujuy, Salta and perhaps one or two others, depending on the situation.
But no Mendoza, no Chubut, no Rio Negro and nowhere that holds weekly marches against
the extractive industries. With that said, be clear that Argentina i now serious about growing it
mining industry and offers a pro-active and positive ballpark in which to go mining in the
provinces of choice. We have a poster-child appearing in the shape of Filo Mining /Josemaria
in San Juan, which under the control of deep-pocketed owners with friendly relationships at all
political levels in Argentina. Yes indeed, forget the mess the Lundins have in Guatemala, they
are working their true magic in Argentina. And on the political side, with a groundbreaking
project in the bag Mining Secretary Alberto Hensel gets the momentum he is looking for and,
suddenly, Ecuador is out of fashion. The mining world is about to go through one of its
periodic love affairs with Argentina and I think there’s real reason for it this time, even though
the traps are always there. This is the real Basket Case Country, anything can happen and
often does but for the time being, choose your region with care and Argentina is a buy.
With apologies to both Colombia and Bolivia, those are the four South American mining
countries that matter to capitalist mining sector investors and right now, this desk sees plenty
of value on offer from the continent. Except Ecuador.
Market Watching
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): Concerned Shareholder update
On Thursday, MIRL held a meeting of the Board of Directors, with part of the agenda the
preliminary findings of the audit into the activities of Diego Benavides. He did not have a
pleasant meeting, I am happy to say. However, it would be incorrect to speculate on the
findings of the audit committee until they have submitted their official findings.
In the meantime, while we reflect that the CV’s of the three people usurping executive positions
are wholly inadequate, we should also remind the company that it’s not merely the fact of their
presence, but the motive behind it, that is the cause of so much consternation. The real motive
of Diego Benavides in hiring his friends was to fake competence and fill the head office with a
make-believe team that would see him keep his job when up for election at the AGM. AS the
truth is being revealed about Steve Ngatai, Susan Gabbie and Pedro Valdez, we should also
seek the truth from CEO Benavides, or at least get on record his reasons for hiring these wastes
of time and space. The sooner he is out of our lives the better, Fellow CS.
Tracking the Buy Peru call
After making a solid “Sell Peru” call in February on the back of rising political risk, we then
made the precipitous return and “Buy Peru” call in IN634 dated July 18th. Hindsight tells us the
call was early (and then some) but the events of October, including the key event when
President Pedro Castillo fired his heard Left wing Prime Minister Guido Bellido and replaced him
22

with the “orthodox Left” politician Mirtha Vasquez, has changed the tone once and for all:
As for the non-mining ticker mentioned last weekend as a leveraged way to play the Peru
macro rebound, Banco Credicorp (BAP), owners of Peru’s biggest privately owned bank (Banco
de Credito BCP), did indeed do better than the index average and is up close to 20% since the
news of Guido Bellido’s sacking hit:
However, the BAP performance was out-stripped by the stock we passed on last week,
Buenaventura (BVN) as seen with the blue squiggly line above. Finally, the combination of three
factors, 1) political relief 2) the rally in metals prices and particularly copper and 3) the
weakness we saw in the US Dollar last week made the Peruvian Sol (PN) one of the world’s top
performing currencies last week:
Whoosh.
Orezone (ORE.v) adds the first ten percent
In “Orezone (ORE.v): From cheap to compelling” last week, we highlighted the value on offer
from a virtual One Loonie share price. In the previous two to three week, with gold weak and
Q3 closing, ORE had picked up at least one and maybe a handful of larger insto-sized sellers
and the stock price had suffered as a result. All good, but while closing out last week’s note I
created a rod for my own back by writing, “…as stated six weeks ago I’d much prefer to leave
the first 10% of the move to somebody else and buy Orezone once it has gained momentum”,
because the stock price chart now looks like this:
23

A nice rebound, up 13c to $C$1.14 and on the type of volume surge you’d want if a big seller
ha jut been cleaned out. For sure last week’s move was without a single penny of my money,
but it now brings my scenario into play. Time to buy the second 10% move?
I won’t lie, I’m looking for an excuse not to buy ORE this weekend and they are wearing thin.
However, the reduced volume on Thursday and Friday isn’t what you’d want with prices this
low, there’s still doubt about market appetite for the stock. Also, the big seller may not have
finished and finally, thanks to the way Minera Alamos and Rio2 ran last week I didn’t feel so
bad about missing out on this pop, to date. Still high on the shopping list.
Conclusion
IKN647 is done, we end with a couple of brief bullet points:
 Be long copper, be long gold, we are in the right market for our sector and a long as
the world grows via the liberal use of Whatever It Takes, they go higher still.
 Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) is a great company that has done a sterling job of turning
itself around and making the most of the copper bull. It’s still cheap compared to its
earnings potential, too. Therefore buy Copper Mountain, as it’s even cheaper.
 I hope to return to Excelsior Mining (MIN.to), but this small retail player can’t afford
another year of dead money in this stock. A heavy heart.
 Tomorrow we have the Mine And Money conference, which has gone online this year
and should be well attended via computer screens, at least. See you there 
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best, Mark
24

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/excelsior-mining-to-present-a-live-video-webinar-to-highlight-updates-to-the-
gunnison-copper-project-johnson-camp-mine-and-exploration-properties-867644106.html
(2) http://www.amerigoresources.com/_resources/news/nr_2021_10_12.pdf
(3) https://www.rumbominero.com/peru/noticias/internacionales/la-actividad-minera-en-chile-corre-peligro-por-la-sequia/
(4)
https://www.litoralpress.cl/sitio/Prensa_Texto?LPKey=KT3RGGLSSHIWNPWJNROTYKRFMPUJLBV6IWNKRWPA2X7
QOQ47I6546T2T5H7L3PG42EJZGGUDFFPCQ
(5) https://produceredition.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1501080&tp_key=fd3437f8d3
(6) https://iknnews.com/the-best-speech-from-lmes-copper-week/
(7) https://www.precipitategold.com/news/2021/precipitate-secures-option-to-acquire-100-of-ace-gold-project-in-
northern-newfoundland-canada
(8) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/chiles-pinera-faces-impeachment-bid-after-pandora-papers-leak-2021-10-
13/
(9) https://www.pagina12.com.ar/374853-chile-el-candidato-de-pinera-cae-en-los-sondeos-el-izquierdi
(10) https://www.lapoliticaonline.com.ar/nota/137073-segun-una-nueva-encuesta-la-ultraderecha-desplaza-al-
oficialismo-y-se-mete-en-la-segunda-vuelta-en-chile/
(11) https://www.mining.com/web/mexico-eyes-strategic-minerals-copper-limits-in-mining-reform/
(12) https://www.elsoldehermosillo.com.mx/analisis/conversatorios-mineros-bmw-vw-y-la-pila-del-bienestar-
7333247.html
(13) https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2021/10/14/guillermo-lassos-battle-against-populism-in-ecuador
(14) https://www.lapoliticaonline.com.ar/nota/137126-asediado-por-los-pandora-papers-lasso-denuncia-una-triple-
conspiracion-para-derrocarlo/
(15) https://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/politica/leonidas-iza-lasso-denuncias-culpables.html
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
25

Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
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Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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