6 The IKN Weekly, issue 645 — Oct 04, 2021
The IKN Weekly
Week 645, October 3rd 2021
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, Deferring an op-ed on “When Top Picks Go Stale”, US BLS Jobs
report and a silver chart.
Fundamental Analysis: Updating the QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v) analysis.
Stocks to Follow: Altiplano Metals (APN.v): Copper Mountain (CMMC.to): Minera IRL
(MIRL.cse): Aurelius (AUL.v): Argonaut Gold (AR.to), Mene Inc (MENE.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Solaris (SLS.to), Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to).
Producer Basket: Overview, Kirkland Lake (KL) Agnico Eagle (AEM) and others.
Tiny Dogs: Overview, Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v).
Regional Politics: Peru: The political climate calms further.
Market Watching: Tracking the Buy Peru call, Harte Gold (HRT.to): An eye on the side bet,
Norsemont Mining (NOM.cse) loses a director, Aldebaran (ALDE.v) begins its promo (and we
look for an exit), Enter Josemaria Resources (JOSE.v), The Minera IRL (MIRL.cse) internal audit.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
Those readers expecting more insight on the Kirkland Lake (KL) deal may leave this
edition disappointed. There are some thoughts in the Producer Basket section, but the
advent of the deal on Tuesday was also a momentum-killer. Scoop delivered, I’m back
to a normal junior mining guy.
Instead, today’s main event is a second week of QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v) as
enough has happened in just seven days to warrant an update and I will bang on the
table about this stock, as there’s still a winning trade over the near-term available. It’s
also a review edition, with the end of Q3 being our look back at performances in The
Copper Basket and The Producer Basket.
The world tries to suppress the price of copper, it just keeps on bouncing back. All the
jawbone in the world cannot disguise the supply drought in Asia, neither will the energy
price spike change 2022 and 2023 demand.
Today’s “Regional Politics” section begins with these words: “In order to lighten the
political load a little, for the time being your author is going to limit the Regional Politics
section to a single focus country.” A change to the Weekly, as limiting to one (or
perhaps two) countries per week will allow time to cover mining related matters, as
well as the general political backdrop.
Sometimes, it takes a wake-up call to see the obvious, in this case I am wondering why
I don’t own Josemaria Resources (JOSE.v) yet. See two pieces in today’s Market
Watching for more.
1
Deferring an op-ed on “When Top Picks Go Stale”
As Reader CV knows, this week’s intro was set to cover as subject that’s been itching at me for
a few weeks, regarding the Top Picks Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) and Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and how
they’ve been largely ignored in recent editions. It would have made it to today’s intro, save for
the fact that I’ve developed an awful case of writer’s block on the note and cannot seem to
finish it, or even get the argument right. Therefore, consider it a work in progress coming next
weekend.
US BLS Jobs report and a silver chart
The lack of creative juices means today’s intro section is thin, we keep things to a reminder that
next Friday has the US BLS Employment Report for September, which according to Calculated
Risk is currently forecast to return +460k NFP jobs added, and the headline unemployment rate
to drop to 5.1%. As usual, one of the main catalysts of the month. Finally, and rather than
anything gold-related in the intro (for once), the chart of the silver price is either opportunity or
threat, depending on your point of view:
Your author is not normally a silver proponent, but as the current market nerves are overblown,
geopolitics have been shown time and again not to affect markets, and likelihood of the world
economy being allowed to slip into recession is zero, the chances are that its current U$22/oz
floor level holds . This weekend is one of the few times when your author has actively
considered trading silver. [EDIT: Early overnight Asia trading has moved silver sharply higher]
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Updating the QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v) analysis
‘This bud of love by summer’s ripening breath,
May prove a beauteous flower when next we meet’
(Romeo and Juliet – Act 2, Scene 1)
Money never sleeps, they say. We’ve seen our small speculation on copper in Quebec, QC
Copper & Gold (QCCU.v) get a favourable reception from the market on the back of its Maiden
Resource Estimate (MRE) two weeks ago, which continued last week as the market continued
to trade the name with volume (and volatility):
2
The dump Wednesday caught people unawares, your author included, as it coincided with
QCCU filing its financials. However and ultimately, we have to make way for people taking
profits and even if you weren’t an owner before the September MRE, you could have been in at
23c and out with a quick and substantial win in a week. I am all for profit-takers, the more the
merrier and particularly when they se the stock get bought back up immediately afterward.
However, we’ve also seen a couple of news items over the last week that change the
fundamentals of the company, so we today address the differences between the QCCU reported
in the main note of IKN644 last weekend and the QCCU of today.
They begin with fe de errata: Last weekend’s note suffered from another Mark Lapse in editing,
as a couple of lines of the script from the previous weekend’s edition were left in the note.
Therefore and show both error and correction, this is how the QCCU note began last weekend
with my lapse now highlighted in italics:
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v) is small, exploration-stage mining company developing assets in
Canada, with a focus on Quebec. Its flagship asset is the with limited, non-commercial production
at one asset and plans to move others into production. Most of its projects are located in Chile,
with one in Nicaragua. Current share structure is as follows:
This is what is should have said:
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v) is small, exploration-stage mining company developing
assets in Canada, with a focus on Quebec. Its flagship asset is the Opemiska project in
Quebec, Canada. Current share structure is as follows:
To round out fe errata, several readers pointed out that the town is called Chapais, not
Chibougamau and thanks for bearing with me. Moving on, we have two real items to cover:
1) The filing of QCCU’s financial quarter
2) The news from QCCU related company Baselode (FIND.v) last week
The financials: First job is to update the financials, with QCCU filng its 3q21 period (to end
July, its financial year ending October 31st) last week. We do that via he usual suspect charts
and FWIW there are several changes to last weekend’s estimates, mostly related to the timing
of financings and also QCCU’s expanded plans for 2022.
We begin with assets, that dropped in line with QCCU.v: Assets, per qtr
20
expectations as 1) QCCU expenses its
18
development of Opemiska and 2) it carries its 16
substantial and now valuable shares in Baselode 14
12
(FIND.v) on the equity method, which mean we
10
don’t get wild fluctuations in value reported (e.g. 8
if they did it end month mark-to-market, the grey 6
4
columns would estimate a lot higher). We’re
2
expecting QCCU.v to go to market and finance to 0
the level it desires for 2022, what’s more, once
the details are known you should expect it to be
well-received and certainly not a drag on
Canadian trading. That extra cash should hit
treasury by end 1q22 and after that, the company
will set about burning it via the drillbit again.
As for the liabilities table, that quick peak and drop
looks more dramatic than it is. QCCU paid down a
small accruing near-term position that (check Y-
axis) didn’t reach CAD$2m. In fact, liabilities
continue to be run in an optimum manner and
QCCU’s chart is the type we’d like from every
exploreco. More important is cash and liquidity and,
3
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2
$m
fixed
other current
cash
source: company filings/IKN ests
QCCU.v: Liabilities, per qtr
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2
source: company filings/est
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs
as near-term liabilities are back to being tiny, just the working cap chart will suffice:
QCCU.v: Working Capital per qtr
4
343.0 417.0 306.0 603.1 864.1
571.6
108.4
196.2
7.2
1.01
9.6
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2
source company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
On checking with CEO Stewart about a week ago, he confirmed his cash position as “just under
$3m” so my 4q21 guesstimate isn’t going to be wrong by much. However, the significant
changes begin in 2022 and the above chart now reflects two points:
We expect QCCU to raise more cash. There’s also the potential bonus of monetizing a
portion of FIND.v shares and raising even more, but that is not reflected in the above.
We expect QCCU to be more aggressive in 2022 and in turn, raise its cash burn
significantly
These significant changes in the model since last week comes from the combination of further
conversation with CEO Stewart, as well as taking into account the new information and insight
offered on the company in recent media channels. On that, please see the latest corporate
presentation (1) and then I’d then recommend you visit the Crux Investor Q&A with CEO
Stewart (2), but best of the bunch is the video linked to the open blog last week (3), done in-
house by QCU/Ore Group. In it, VP Exploration Beaudry and CEO Stewart discuss what they
have achieved to date at Opemiska and how the project will be developed from here. Anyone
into winning trades should watch that YouTube. As a result, projections for expenses and
company burn for the quarters to come have changed significantly. We see the effects in the
balance sheet chats above, but to highlight the changes here’s the QCCU expenses breakdown
chart from last weekend:
THAT WAS THEN…
QCCU.v: Expenses breakdown
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2
C$m
other
Prof fees
cons/mgmt fees
Exploration exp
source: company filings
The above is defunct and superseded by the following:
…BUT THIS IS NOW:
QCCU.v: Expenses breakdown
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2
C$m
other
Prof fees
cons/mgmt fees
Exploration exp
source: company filings
Same applies to overall corporate losses, which we expect to accelerate as QCCU expands and
adds both officer and office staff. CEO Stewart was frank about both the cost creep and how
they will ignore it and plough ahead, with Opemiska the flagship getting more drill metres
assigned and development started at its other assets. Quite right too, they’d be foolish to waste
this newfound momentum and to sketch that out, here’s how basic, bottom-line losses model
out at this financially straightforward company:
APN.v: Quarterly net loss
6 5.5
5
5
3.856 4
4
3 2.126 2.53
2
1 0.108 0.464 0.318
0
-1 -0.33
5
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2
$m
source: company filings
As for shares out, the house model is sticking with its forecast of reaching 180m shares out by
the end of next year. Here’s some more detail on how we get there:
QCCU.v: Shares out (m)
4.93 4.93 4.35 4.35 7.85 8.07
9.701 7.311 2.711 2.711 0.041 0.051 0.061 0.081
200
180
160
140
120
100 80
60
40
20
0
91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
source: company filings, IKN ests
In this case, the house estimate is just that, a best guess, so hopefully my errors cancel
themselves out. It’s based on the 1) an upcoming financing (on good terms to current
shareholders, I hasten to add), then 2) 2022 share payments as QCCU makes its optioning
payments 3) continued derivates being made whole (options and warrants, potentially adding
over C$5m to treasury). Finally, I’m now assuming 4) third financing to raise more cash, not too
large, perhaps mid-2022 and 10m shares, at a higher share price than today. No special insight,
merely best guesses on how QCCU and CEO Stewart will play his financial strategy. He certainly
has plenty of choices at his disposal.
To wrap up last week’s RegFs from QCCU, there were no great surprises in the numbers and
that’s good, but we now forecast a more aggressive company spending at a higher rate than in
its formative year. As for the MD&A, again no surprises though I’d like to share one segment of
its script with fellow/prospective longs of QCCU. While we heard a lot of the same in the recent
in-house video talk linked above, getting the information via a formal document is always good:
Next Steps: Ongoing Drilling to Expand Opemiska Mineral Resource & Explore
New Targets
Beyond the current Opemiska Mineral Resource, the Company notes considerable
potential to add additional Mineral Resources in the immediate vicinity of the
conceptual open pit. Earlier work on the project by RPA Inc. in 2014 highlighted an
exploration target at depth at Perry that spanned a range between 3 and 11 million
tonnes at an average grade of 1.5% to 2.5% copper. To estimate this Mineral
Resource QC Copper and Gold has digitized all the underground workings and veins
down to the bottom of the historical Perry Mine.
To the east of the Perry Pit, there has been some underground mining on the deep
extensions of the K Veins, however, none of the excavations reached surface even
though the veins themselves do outcrop. Drilling by QC Copper and Gold confirmed
the presence of veins and disseminated material near the surface. Based on results
obtained, the Company anticipates that with further drilling, additional Mineral
Resources may be outlined in some satellite pits.
Further east, in the vicinity of the historical Cooke and Robitaille mines, the mineralized
zones are aligned with the Beaver Lake Fault Zone which occupies the hinge zone of
the Beaver Lake Fold structure, a conjugate fold to the Springer anticlinal synform.
This structural corridor has been drilled extensively by Falconbridge but only for high-
grade underground-mineable veins. Sampling was sporadic to capture the high-grade
veins and little or no sampling was done between veins although in many cases, the
historical logs describe lower-grade mineralization that could be economic in an open
pit mining scenario. A significant amount of drilling is required to test the entire corridor,
which is approximately 500 metres wide and 3.5 kilometres in length with strong
indications that mineralization occurs on both sides of the Gwillim Fault.
Bottom line to QCCU financials: We know QCCU has delayed its move to PEA for at least
two quarters for a good reason; already at over 100m metric tonnes, the drillers have the
lowest of low-hanging fruit that will add significant extra tonnage at likely higher grade, with
the continued added bonus of converting “waste” into “ore” in the block model and improving
strip rate of the eventual mine. In other words, a no-brainer to keep drilling until at least those
low-hanging fruit make it to the first-pass PEA. With last week’s set of numbers, plus extra
information and some best-guesses, the house model is now a better reflection of QCCU in
2022 (and beyond…at least I hope so). The good news; QCCU is gaining momentum into next
year, with a solid expansion plan in place. However the good news doesn’t stop here today as
last week brought another bonus to QCCU.
The Baselode Energy (FIND.v) news: Hardly kicking and screaming about it, but I am
being dragged into the world of the uranium bulls by QCCU.v and its large share position in
spinout company Baselode Energy (FIND.v), which brought news to market last week. First it
closed the final portion of its recent placement, then with coffers full for next year immediately
reported (quoting Wednesday’s headline) (4), “…16.2 Metres of Elevated Radioactivity in First
Drill Program on the Hook Uranium Project…” located in the Athabasca Basin. The NR goes on
to quote radioactivity returns and here are those bullet points, sandwiched between officer
comments (go see the whole NR for those):
The radioactive interval averages 642 cps and includes multiple intersections of >1,000
cps;
an average of 3,900 cps over 0.5 m at 138.8 m, which also includes a 0.1 m interval of
12,500 cps,
an average of 2,000 cps over 0.9 m at 142.0 m, and
2,200 cps over 0.2 m at 147.2 m.
One of the advantages of high-grade uranium
exploration is the quick and reasonably accurate
proxy to assay results from radioactivity counters, so
the market caught on quickly (right). Pleasing for
those new owners and great news for QCCU.v of
course, owners of 17,857,143 shares of FIND.v.
These are sister companies under the same “Ore
Group” roof, so it wouldn’t have been a surprise to
hear reticence from QCU CEO Stewart to monetise
them, but he’s already on record as saying he’d be
willing to sell a chunk at the right price. At this
weekend’s C$0.80, that’s C$14.29m in theoretical
cash value and if just $5m of those shares find a new home (in a block deal?) it would be a
great cash benefit at the right time.
Reviewing QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): Last week to next, we considered a company that
had just reported a strong MRE, with good grade, at an understood deposit. Here are just two
visuals from IKN644 by way of reminder, with the resource…
6
…at 82% M+I with an average grade an excellent multiple of the economic cut-off. We also
know there’s at least three years of high-grade starter pit resource (e.g. the crown pillar)…
…and with the upcoming an expanded drill program, QCCU s looking to add even more high-
grading, economically robust tonnes. If today’s is 102mmt of total resource under 43-101
compliance, two more quarters of drilling are bound to add 20% more rock at better grade and
once again, IKN leaves the rank optimism to others; 120mmt at better grade in two quarters’
time is a given and any surprises to the upside (and underlined for a reason). As a result, a
total resource of 2m lbs copper (not equivalent) is now a reasonable, conservative number for
the eventual PEA parameters.
To that, we add its valuable asset in FIND.v shares, now worth over C$14m, and the clear path
for financing and expanding operations next year in order to capitalize on its MRE and the
resulting momentum.
As for catalysts, there are plenty but central will be the upcoming 2022 program. Expect it to be
considerably expanded (I’m looking for 75k metres planned), it will continue to define and
expand Opemiska through its initial PEA, but QCCU is also after bigger fish and will now expand
its drill program to outlaying exploration targets. Again good, we get to test the company
theory of “the next Malartic/Detour/Whoever” sooner, rather than later. Testing theories with
the drillbit is what serious juniors do.
To close today’s update on last week’s bullish opinion on QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), we
consider the share price this weekend. Impressively, even after two straight weeks of strong
gains this company is still under-valued for what it has at this It’s 117.2m shares out will not
last and a more realistic market cap this weekend uses its fully diluted 166.7m share total, but
even then QCCU still has a market cap of just CAD$60.01m (U$48m at the house 0.8/1 forex).
This compares to the market caps of these stocks in the current Copper Basket:
7
C3 Metals (CCCM.v): C$100.9m
Regulus Resources (REG.v): C$88.6m
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v): C$87.7m
The heavily promoted CCCM doesn’t even have a 43-101 compliant resource. The other two do,
but both are looking to considerably alter them as they drill and expand their target. That QCCU
is doing the same and looking in elephant country for its own giant deposit puts it on a par with
these three. However, QCCU brings manifold advantages to the table:
Its recently filed MRE, which will form the basis of a PEA in 2022
A fully financed 2022 budget, assuming the 167m fully diluted number
Around C$14m of FIND.v shares up its sleeve, of which we can reasonably expect
QCCU to cash in $5m and help fund its programs
The story has been largely under the radar to date. Unlike the heavily promoted names
that crop up constantly in Webinars and paid-for video segments, up to now QCCU
hasn’t jump on the promo bandwagon, its only third party stuff a couple of video
segments with Crux Investor. As a result, it’s a name that has flown under the radar of
those used to being fed their DD on social media. FWIW, as the market plays catch-up
to the Opemiska story, we can expect QCCU to be more promotional and active in the
future and even hire a 3rd party IR group to do the heavy lifting.
Located in a place that welcomes mining!
Indeed, that final point cannot be understated; QCCU has found the right project in the right
place at the right time (though a view of the latest corporate video will give an idea of how long
the team has been working to achieve this apparent overnight success). Would you rather your
exploreco be in South America today, or in a town in Canada with national and provincial
government support for expansion project? A place that has meetings to demand that mining
begin as soon as possible, rather than to run it out of town? The flipside to resource
nationalism is increasing ambivalence toward “outsiders”, QCCU’s CSR task is a whole lot easier
than the one faced in any South American country today.
In QCCU you get all that at a discount, rather than a premium, to peers. For our calculations,
we assume 167.7m fully diluted share out as our total. This, as a proxy on QCCU fully funding
its 2022 budget and plans, means its 36c share price this weekend could rise another 40% and
still remain competitively priced to established sector peers. That would put a share price target
of a little over 50c, which correlates to the rough and mooted 50c of last weekend. With the
way QCCU has traded in the last two weeks, its lack of market friction (little evidence of any
short position built against it yet) and the strength of buying as copper rebounded last week, I
see no reason why this recent run should stop. Last week the 50c mentioned target was more
an afterthought, this weekend it comes with plenty of backbone and the final words of today’s
note are the real reason for today’s main
Fundies section. It’s uncommon for one
company to be featured in detail two weeks
running, a deliberate decision to make sure the
message is delivered: It doesn’t matter if you
take a long-term or near-term view of QC
Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), neither is the fact
that we’ve seen it rally from 19c to 36c. It’s not
stopping here and I expect it to continue higher
in the days to come, with 50c a reasonable
near-term target to bring it into line with sector
peers. With that number, we can talk again.
8
Stocks to Follow
A midweek slump, followed by a good rebound on Friday but a net-negative week for miners.
This is IKN645 but I could have started the IKN644 noted with those words, last week was
uncannily similar. This time, the benchmarks GDX and GDXJ were down 2.94% and 3.83%
respectively. With luck, the market won’t wait until next Friday to buy these stocks this week-
The net negative hit our portfolio, with eight losers (MAI.v, RIO.v, CMMC.to, AR.to, SMD.v,
MIN.to, APN.v, AUL.v, MENE.v) including biggest loser Aurelius (AUL.v down 14.5%) and
Excelsior (MIN.to down 10.2%). To the upside, there were a decent seven winners (TMQ,
QCCU.v, ALDE.v, RYR.v, GBR.v, MIRL.cse), including double digit moves from QC Copper
(QCCU.v up 24.1%), Minera IRL (MIRL.cse up 18.8%) and Aldebaran (ALDE.v up 16.7%). If it
weren’t for the weakness in both Top Picks, it would have been a winning week.
With the addition of APN.v to the list, we now have 15 open positions, our self-imposed limit.
Five of our open stocks are in the green, which is just as pathetic as last week.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.52 147.6% $1.14 tgt Aug'20, #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.55 -33.7% $1.30 tgt on capex raise, Jul21
Recommended stocks (In order of preference)
Copper Mountain CMMC.to STR BUY C$3.42 18-Jun-21 C$2.89 -15.5% Top value Cu play, overweight
Argonaut Gold AR.to STR BUY C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.74 -7.1% All right signs, added more
Trilogy Metals TMQ STR BUY U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.81 -1.6% Cu for 2021, going well
QC Copper &Gold QCCU.v STR BUY C$0.26 25-Apr-21 C$0.36 38.5% Opemiska MRE good
Strategic Metals SMD.v BUY C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.29 -31.0% Canadian land bet/Value trap?
Excelsior Mining MIN.to BUY C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.50 -46.2% Delayed, great value if it works
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.68 16-May-21 C$0.70 2.9% Promo begins Q4
Altiplano Metals QCCU.v BUY C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Cheap entry, about to re-rate
Royal Road Min. RYR.v BUY C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.285 83.9% Model paying off in Nica
Great Bear Res GBR.v BUY C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$13.70 -13.5% Binary M&A trade, wait for print
Aurelius Min. AUL.v hold/sell? C$0.75 28-Jun-20 C$0.265 -64.7% has until its 43-101 to improve
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.095 -51.3% CEO change will move stock
Long-term non-mining hold
Mene Inc. MENE.v LT Hold C$0.68 6-Dec-20 C$0.83 22.1% LT bet, added again July'21
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Mining NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Resources ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
2015 to 2020 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on a couple of our covered stocks:
9
Altiplano Metals (APN.v): Down a penny on the week, APN is red on the list and was
generally available at 30c. That’s fine so, as there’s a little portfolio width left, I may take the
opportunity to add if we see sub-30c again, if only to have a pleasantly rounded 30c cost
average.
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to): The market continues to hate on CMMC, one of the stocks
that’s always been at the leading edge of Canadian desks’ copper trading. Volatility comes with
the territory and, having added at sub-$3 levels, it’s time for me to hunker down with a full
position (and ignore further temptation…portfolio management and all that). CMMC continues
to represent outstanding fundamental value compared to its free cash flow at any copper price
above U$4.00/lb. As far as number-crunchers like me are concerned, this company at this price
is as close to a no-brainer as you ever get in junior mining.
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): The two chunky purchases on Wednesday that moved MIRL back up
to 9.5c both came from House 33, and as that’s the one MIRL insiders use to buy stock, I’d
expect it was them again. Good, more buyers than sellers suits us and I repeat, our ultimate
aim is to get the stock price higher.
Aurelius (AUL.v): On the subject of “broken stocks”,
this:
This does not augur well for the upcoming 43-101 and
then 2022 plans and AUL stock continued to sink
without trace last week, with modest sellers who didn’t
want to carry the position into Q4 enough to cave the
price. Not good, also this is now an obvious piñata at
Canadian Tax Loss Selling Season (with several instos
on board) but I will give AUL until its resource. Feel free
to call me stupid on that.
Argonaut Gold (AR.to): We noted a new negative divergence to the market in AR I IKN644
last weekend, that trend continued this week and AR lost another 2-5% approx to the GDXJ:
I’ve added a couple of red rings to the chart, because that’s what a large seller looks like. It’s
yet another reminder of the mindset and frustration felt at the early stages of the successful
trade in Wesdome a few years ago; this set-up is a clear reminder, as is the way the stock
refuses to rebound and continues to rumble around at lows.
Mene (MENE.v): For a moment, the stock looked like
getting away last week. The fact that it didn’t, plus the
way it dropped back to a clearly managed 85c price
level, gives last week the look of money not used to the
Venture Exchange way of life wading in with a fat
finger. The door is open to modest trades at 80c to 85c,
10
but at some point MENE will begin to attract different sized traders.
Once again, I feel obliged to warn all readers of the potential nightmare situation: I continue to
suspect the best trade from The IKN Weekly in the last five years may turn out to be this, a
precious metals retailer rather than producer. MENE has first foot advantage in a growing online
market and, with the business now financially stable, its disruptive presence will only grow
among the giants of retail jewelry.
The Copper Basket
After thirty-nine weeks of 2021, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 22.64% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.08 107.53 1308.64 12.17 100.2%
2 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 1.81 207.5 599.68 2.89 59.7%
3 Oroco Res OCO.v 1.85 186.96 456.18 2.44 31.9%
4 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.25 87.737 329.01 3.75 15.4%
5 Western Copper WRN.to 1.57 135.798 251.23 1.85 17.8%
6 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.80 181.79 230.87 1.27 58.8%
7 Excelsior Min. MIN.to 1.12 273.585 132.69 0.485 -56.7%
8 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.115 438.56 100.87 0.23 100.0%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.07 101.85 88.61 0.87 -18.7%
10 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.455 125.24 87.67 0.70 53.8%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.45 68.281 38.24 0.56 24.4%
12 Doré Copper DCMC.v 1.00 53.304 37.85 0.71 -29.0%
13 Chakana Cop PERU.v 0.60 111.41 33.42 0.30 -50.0%
14 Chibougamau CBG.v 0.165 53.077 11.15 0.21 27.3%
15 US Copper USCU.v 0.105 87.53 9.63 0.11 4.8%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 22.64%
Our basket average managed a rebound of 60% The Copper Basket 2021, weekly evolution
55%
around 2% last week, fuelled by the count
50%
of eight winners (SLS.to, OCO.v, ARG.to, 45%
40%
CCCM.v, ALDE.v, DCMC.v, ECU.v, USCU.v)
35%
against six losers (CMMC.to, MIN.to, 30%
25%
WRN.to, MARI.to, PERU.v, CBG.v) with just
20%
one UNCH on the week (REG.v). It was also 15%
a volatile week, with big moves in both 10%
5%
directions as Q3 came to a close. We got 0%
three double figure percentage upmoves
from Aldebaran (ALDE.v up 16.7%), US
Copper (USCU.v up 15.8%), Solaris (SLS.to
up 11.1%), those were enough to outweigh
the three big losers Chakana Copper (PERU.v down 15.5%), Excelsior (MIN.to down 10.2%),
Western (WRN.to down 9.8%). Overall, the action was choppy and a continuation of month of
September, with the companies behest to the metal behest to the markets behest to world-level
government decisions.
It’s the end of the third quarter of 2021 and below, please find our comparative quarterly
tracking chart of Copper Basket components. Q3 saw few stocks making any improvement,
most treading water on the positions established in the first half of the year, a few stocks
dumping. Still Number One but by just 0.2% is Solaris (SLS.to) and a thought on the
mechanical way it trades, below- Then comes C3 Metals (CCCM.v) which started its promo
machine just before the end of Q3. The nature of its main target means it knows exactly where
to drill to get a flashy assay in this first period of exploration and Vancouver will happily sell that
11
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t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3tco
source: IKN calcs
sizzle, no matter whether there’s a steak to eat afterward.
The 2021 Copper Basket components after 39 weeks
12
%2.001 %0.001
%7.95 %8.85 %8.35
%9.13 %3.72 %4.42
%8.71 %4.51
%8.4
%7.81- %0.92- %0.05- %7.65-
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
ot.SLS v.MCCC ot.CMMC ot.GRA v.EDLA v.OCO v.GBC v.UCE ot.NRW ot.IRAM v.UCSU v.GER v.CMCD v.UREP ot.NIM
source: TSX, IKN calcs
Behind the best come a gaggle of stocks in the +25% to +60% range, but inside them we see
several stocks that have come off their best numbers and the drops in 3q21 from Copper
Mountain (CMMC.to), Oroco (OCO.v), Chibougamau (CBG.v) and Western (WRN.to) would be
substantial headwinds against any portfolio holding the names (personally, CMMC). A special
mention for the drop seen by US Copper (USCU.v), which was a double-plus during 1q21 but
has faded to UNCH on the year; this stock was included specifically because it had the look of a
Canadian exchange P+D special, it’s good to have caught one in this representative basket.
As for the red ink, aside the volatile DCMC not much has really changed since the end of Q2.
Your author’s long-suffering reco Excelsior Mining (MIN.to) continues as Tail End Charlie of the
group and on a personal level, the jury is still out regarding the continuation of this trade.
Excelsior has until the end of this year to show itself at least on-track for its revised growth and
ramping plan.
And that was Q3 for The Copper Basket, we now come back up to date with the curated wire
content and the metal’s week was dominated by the latest example of ChinaFears! and this
Reuters note (5) captures everything you need (well, needed) to know in its first three short
paragraphs:
LONDON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Copper prices fell for a second day on Wednesday as a
power supply crisis gripped China, the largest metals consumer, shutting factories and
casting doubt on the outlook for demand.
Chinese shares fell and the yuan weakened, while Goldman Sachs and Nomura
revised down projections for China’s economic growth this year.
Outside China, doubts were emerging about the global recovery as central banks
prepared to reduce stimulus and the U.S. government risked tipping into a funding
crisis.
Sure enough, right on cue copper then did its Asia overnight slump on Thursday, but as this
one month chart of the metal shows, it’s resilience at the U$4/lb line (more specifically
U$9,000/tonne, or U$4.082/lb) continues to impress. In so many words, that excellent, three-
point Reuters report was another example of how reading it on the wires means it’s already
baked in. And to throw in a pun…
…please ignore the Cheech and Chong, what matters more in that chart above is the higher low
on Friday, which came about as bargain hunters were quick to act and the reason, we repeat
until blue in the face, is the lack of physical copper available in Asia. For that, we do our weekly
update on inventories, data from Chile’s Cochilco and the SHFE:
To nobody’s surprise, copper warehouse stocks continue to deplete, but the 6,816
metric tonnes (mt) dropped on aggregate was more modest than the last two weeks.
Total tonnages for the three official world systems closed Friday at 311,926mt.
At the Shanghai SHFE, inventories dropped a small 1,104mt to close at 43,525mt and
we’re not at the point where end-users are being turned away from the majority of
“last resort” warehouses. Friday’s total is another new record.
The LME also dropped last week, with 9,725mt leaving its Asian warehouses and
9,000mt in total, to close at 217,175mt.
The Comex saw a significant add, without which the world aggregate would have been
worse. Some 3,288mt landed in Comex North American warehouses, bringing this
weekend’s total to 51,226mt.
Here’s the Shanghai-only inventories chart:
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
13
31'13ceD ht9 ht81 ht72 ht5tco ht41 dn22 dr3yam ht21 ht02 ht92 ht7bef ht71 ht62 ht4peS ht31 ht92 ht9 ht81 ht72 ht5von ht41 ht52 ht01 ht91 ht82 ht6naJ ht71 ht62 ht4gua ht31 dn22 202ts1ram ht01 ht91 ht72 0202ht6ced ht41 ht52 1202ht4luj ht21
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
The week-by-week breakdown gets re-focused to the last two months:
MT Cu SHFE copper inventory levels, Jul-Sep 2018/19/20/21
200000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000 2021
2020
40000
2019
20000 2018
0
32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
source: Cochilco data
The gap is yawning and I’ve made the point in a succession of editions, all we have today is the
continuation. Regarding copper inventories, a coupe of mails have arrived recently asking why
The IKN Weekly doesn’t account for China’s “dark stock” of copper, reported on the mainland
as a non-official inventory source for many years. It’s often given tonnages that rise and fall,
according to close industry watchers who do their best to report an accurate number on a
difficult, black-box dataset, with a view to better understanding the supply/demand dynamics of
the world’s biggest consumer.
The short answer as to why we ignore that data isn’t hard to work out after that intro; the data
are notoriously unreliable. However, it’s also apparent for the long-term watcher that the official
inventory numbers are a sufficiently good proxy in themselves to provide the indications we
look for from inventory numbers. After all, any small sample of a larger market is only going to
be indicative, therefore even if we include the Chinese Dark Stock, there’s no guarantee it
predicts the moves in the real world more accurately. While on the other hand, the introduction
of a non-official dataset lowers overall data quality and potentially brings in more room for
greater error.
Now for notes on two basket stocks:
Solaris Resources (SLS.to): My obsession with SLS continues, not least because I passed on
it and its share price has proved me wrong nearly every week, for two years and counting:
Thing is, it trades so weirdly! Those volume spikes you see on this chart aren’t just for the last
couple of weeks, the SLS share price gets constantly set early morning in the same way, just
after the open, one trade flurry and the day is done. I cannot get away from the feeling that
SLS’s fate is sealed and some Chinese entity is merely waiting for the right date and price.
Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to): On Wednesday September 27th, WRN announced this
(6):
VANCOUVER, B.C. Western Copper and Gold Corporation (“Western” or the
“Company”) (TSX: WRN; NYSE American: WRN) is pleased to announce the
appointment of Shena Shaw as Vice President, Environmental and Community Affairs,
effective October 1, 2021. Ms. Shaw will be responsible for leading the environmental,
permitting and community relations efforts for Western Copper and Gold and its wholly
owned Casino Copper-Gold Deposit in Yukon, Canada (the “Casino Project”).
Good and positive news, of course, but nobody’s idea of a price catalyst. Indeed, it may have
underscored the long-term nature of the
Casino project (and that’s putting it mildly,
we’ve watched babies grow to adulthood
around it). This 10 day chart of WRN
against the copper producer ETF (COPX)
shows how WRN may have had some
unlucky timing in announcing something on
a day copper dumps, but afterward there
was zero appetite to buy back:
With real world mining now happening
“down the road” at Keno Hill (Alexco), there
is better reason to consider Casino as a
stand-alone project. However, it’s difficult
to see how this happens without serious
activity at Coffee and for that, WRN is somewhat at the mercy of the budget decisions inside
14
major mining companies, as well as the upcoming
rounds of CSR (which surely also consider Casino
as more than merely a stand-alone). Personally
I’ve never hated the stock, on the other hand
there’s never been a good reason to own it. That
may change in 2022 and, for what it’s worth,
strong proponents of this stock reading these
words are welcome to mail in to explain which
catalyst(s) I am missing, because we also know
from the very long-term chart that WRN is best
bought when most hated.
The Producer Basket
After thirty-nine weeks of 2021, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 19.68% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out Mkt Cap (U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 59.89 805 43.12 53.56 -10.6%
2 Barrick GOLD 22.78 1778.04 31.99 17.99 -21.0%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 70.51 244.187 12.45 50.99 -27.7%
4 Kirkland Lake KL 41.27 267.056 10.94 40.97 -0.7%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 7.34 1261.07 6.71 5.32 -27.5%
6 Endeavour Min EDV.to 29.62 252.568 6.08 28.89 -2.5%
7 Pan American PAAS 34.71 210.262 4.87 23.18 -33.2%
8 B2Gold BTG 5.60 1051.697 3.57 3.39 -39.5%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 8.75 392.739 2.80 7.14 -18.4%
10 Pretium Res PVG 11.48 187.833 1.82 9.67 -15.8%
Prices in U$ except EDV.to (share price in CAD$ and mkt cap in approx USD) Port. avg -19.68%
We cover the KL events below, first the basic numbering stuff and our result, a drop of 0.45%
with four winners (AEM, KGC, PVG, AGI) and six losers (NEM, GOLD, KL, PAAS, EDV.to, BTG),
was again an improvement on the GDX benchmark. The gap down to 1.11% and there’s a
quarter to go, hope springs eternal:
The 2021 Producer Basket: Percentage difference between
GDX benchmark and basket (negative = IKN basket ahead)
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
And once the dust had settled all weekly moves were modest in nature, the best being Pretium
(PVG up 2.9%) and the worst Kirkland (KL down 3.8%).
Now for the Q3 review and as usual, here’s the snapshot of performance of the basket
components to date this year, in chart form:
15
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t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3tcO
The 2021 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and 20%
comparative to GDX control
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
source: IKN calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq/TSX data
ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3tcO
basket
gdx control
source: Google, IKN Calcs
The 2021 Producer Basket components after 39 weeks
10%
-0.7% -2.5%
0%
-10%
-10.6%
-20% -15.8%
-18.4%
-21.0%
-30%
-27.5%-27.7%
-33.2%
-40%
-39.5%
-50%
16
LK ot.VDE MEN GVP IGA DLOG CGK MEA SAAP GTB
source: NYSE/TSX, IKN calcs
It makes for quite the sobering image: All ten of our stocks are now underwater for the year,
even the recently bought (okay, under offer) Kirkland Lake (KL). Still, the chart also shows how
KL and Endeavour Mining (EDV.to) have been the clear winners of 3q21, the only ones to have
improved on their stock prices at the end of 2q21.
Aside those, the least worst in Q3 was Pretium (PVG), which deteriorated by just 0.3% during
Q3. Which leaves the rest and, without exception, the PM stocks in our basket have had an
awful third quarter. The percentage drops of the remaining seven were uniform, indicative of
the way GDX and its top-down money flows through the biggest PM funds and bends
component companies out of shape. It is the way of
our PM market at the moment, with Wall St. deciding
what price multiple is best suited to what it classes
as a cyclical. The numbers range from -12.3% drop
in Q3 for Barrick , to -16.4% for Newmont, the
average drop around 15%. As for the main driver of
those losses, this GDX/GLD chart gives the scene
(right). The fate of PM majors isn’t that easy and we
can’t just blame a 2% drop in bullion, we all know
this. However and taking into consideration the
market backdrop, the constant jawbone in Q3 and
the way the Fed has managed what it insists is a
near-term bump in inflation, that gap screams of an
oversold sector as we move into the last quarter of the year.
Kirkland Lake (KL) and Agnico (AEM) (and others)
The week in PMs was dominated by Agnico Eagle (AEM), Kirkland Lake (KL) and their “merger
of equals”, which already has KL shareholders demanding a sweetener to be treated even more
equally. A check on the comparative price charts of the two stocks gives clues as to why:
While AEM and KL hid behind “we’ve been talking for two years” malarkey, we now know KL
was in-play all summer. We also know Barrick (GOLD) walked away from the deal and,
according to Bristow himself the reason was the basic one; too expensive. Finally, we know
Newcrest was close to winning the deal, so it seems at some point between IKN publication and
Tuesday morning, KL and Tony Makuch was convinced by AEM and Sean Boyd of the longer-
term benefits of a politically correct Canadian “merger of equals”, instead of taking whatever
extra market premium were on offer from the Australians. Result? The deal was universally
greeted as being a good deal for Sean Boyd, not so great for Tony Makuch (who gets his CoC
bonus and becomes CEO of New AEM, lucky old him) and the calls for a sweetener are certainly
valid, as it doesn’t take Sherlock Holmes to work out that NCM was probably offering more in
cash terms.
Will we get a counter-offer? There is the potential for a sweetener and KL shareholders will
always want more if they can get it, but the lack of arb shown on the deal shows that instos are
ready to vote it up (no matter how hard done by smallfry might feel). Since last weekend this
desk has heard several unconfirmed anecdotes on the process, including a credible version that
places Sibanye as the first-mover against KL. As early as August, SBGL sent a letter of intent to
offer KL to its board. If this gossip then continues to be correct, it explains how KL and Barrick
(GOLD) were until recently under exclusivity: First SBGL moved, that triggered KL into looking
for a White Knight and Bristow was there, willing to talk. However, we also know Bristow and
Barrick walked away over the final price tag, once again reflected in the price chart above.
My personal call? The AEM/KL deal happens, perhaps with a small cash sweetener but not
enough to get me interested in owning the stock. It was, however, an anticlimactic end to what
may have been more of a sector catalyst than it is. We wish New AEM well and begin to
consider whether it would entertain a sae of Fosterville to Newcrest.
The Tiny Dogs
After thirty-nine weeks of 2021, the Tiny Dogs show a loss of 3.21% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Antler Gold ANTL.v 0.205 61.348 9.20 0.15 -26.8%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.045 163.975 6.56 0.04 -11.1%
Constantine Met CEM.v 0.17 45.4 16.80 0.37 117.6%
Contact Gold C.v 0.115 240.757 13.24 0.055 -52.2%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.22 40 4.20 0.105 -52.3%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.045 230.79 13.85 0.06 33.3%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.240 106.241 8.50 0.08 -66.7%
QC Copper QCCU.v 0.315 105 37.80 0.36 14.3%
Red Pine Expl RPX.v 0.400 95.806 55.57 0.58 45.0%
Warrior Gold WAR.v 0.090 91.818 5.51 0.06 -33.3%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg -3.21%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
17
Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The basket average lost a couple of points and stayed resolutely underwater, the action as Q3
closed spit into four winners (ANTL.v, CEM.v,
QCCU.v, RPX.v), five losers (BAY.v, C.v, MTU.v, 20% Tiny Dogs, 2021 weekly tracker
PRG.v, WAR.v) and one unchanged stock 16%
(GDP.v). There were two big percentage moves 12%
in polar opposite directions, with Manitou (MTU.v 8%
down 25.0%) and QCCU Copper (QCU.v up 4%
24.1%) virtually cancelling each other out as far 0%
as our basket is concerned. -4%
-8%
And with that, the quarter ends for the Tiny -12%
Dogs. There’s no comparative chart here, instead
a simple look at the above table shows four lines
in the green and six red from our ten charges. In
my opinion at least, that continues to represent a fair reflection of 2021 in the smallest of
stocks, which in turn sets me a challenge to repeat the result in the 2022 make-up of sub-$20m
cappers. As one may expect from a disparate group, there’s plenty of difference between the
winners and the losers, with Constantine (CEM.v up 117.6%) standing out as the most recent
winner, but other early-year flyers such as Manitou (MTU.v), Golden Pursuit (GDP.v) and Antler
(ANTL.v) coming down to earth with a bump. Meanwhile, the percentage in this year’s “broken
stocks” include Contact (C.v) and Warrior (WAR.v).
Notes on just one of our covered stocks this weekend, but at least it’s an interesting one:
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v): My interest in this stock is well-established, we finally got
what the market wanted this year with its corporate re-organization (which capitalized the
company and brought 100% ownership of Wawa), however we were also right to watch all the
moves from the sidelines:
RPX now offers potential, in the right geographical location too. Those who wanted out of the
new structure exited over the summer and, since late August approx, its new drilling program
has landed some decent headline intersections. Importantly, those two now combine to provide
a share price coming off the insto-induced selling low. RPX now has three rigs running and can
provide newsflow over the winter months at a time when projects even further North have to
hunker down. Likeable, and watch the volume if you’re looking to flip.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It is possible that in the
future I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, but at the moment both my opinion and my wallet are strictly
neutral.
18
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t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3tcO
source: IKN calcs, TSX data
Regional politics
Peru: The political climate calms further
In order to lighten the political load a little, for the time being your author is going to limit the
Regional Politics section to a single focus country. Last week was Argentina and by doing Peru
today, it gets our over-repeated story of 2021 out the way and the main issues are now on the
table. Last week saw the country begin to find a new political normal, with the bickering now at
a lower level than kicking out the President. Then this weekend brought strongly positive
financial news, so both of those covered now:
The financial fillip first, that came after markets closed this weekend when Peru’s executive
ratified Julio Velarde as President of Peru’s Central Bank (BCRP), a post he’s occupied since
2006 and now gets another five years. His re-appointment has been in the balance ever since
Castillo won the election (as reported on several occasions at the time on these pages) and this
is unadulterated good news for Peru. Good for financial and business confidence, good for the
Peruvian Sol, above all it’s the indication the outside world has wanted that Castillo would be
true to his word about not interfering with the monetary controls, so expect Peru-related
financial issues to rally tomorrow Monday. The good news also came with three nominations for
director roles inside the BCRP and those are now five, with the positions up for debate in
Congress. But Velarde is there and the rest is noise, it doesn’t even matter if the other seats are
given to lefties or righties.
Meanwhile on the political scene, President Pedro Castillo has decided he likes being President
and is ready to say and do the right things to keep his government intact. There's an air of
Peter Sellers in the movie "Being There" growing around the man, he has a near-savant way of
avoiding political trouble by saying or doing straightforward things at just the right time. For
example, either by luck or judgment his decision to make hard Left winger Guido Bellido his
PCM has served as a lightning rod. Nobody expected Bellido to survive congressional
confirmation but since doing so, he’s attracted all the flak and kept the (still furious) hard right
wing from attacking the President directly. Instead, out Being There President managed to pick
Bellido, a personal who attracts controversy on a daily basis. Bellido is a distasteful character
who has already created uproar with his views and opinions, such as several blatantly sexist
remarks and an attitude toward women that would have looked dated 50 years ago. As a result,
he’s become the preferred target for that other group of unpleasant people in opposition. This
has allowed Being There Castillo to move quietly toward the political centre, as these days he's
all about "co-operation with private industry". Castillo somehow chanced upon his Bad Cop
Bellido, who throws media soundbites out regarding expropriations and nationalizations, leaving
the President in peace. It’s all rather uncanny, if you’ve ever seen the movie.
And we can now confidently report that expropriations and nationalizations simply are not going
to happen, no matter what other sabres are rattled by PCM Bellido or Perú Libre head Vladimir
Cerrón. Instead the Castillo government has moved on a case-by-case basis for better "Social
Profitability" (its new buzzword), with cases including the re-negotiation with Las Bambas. At
this point, it has to be said that the new government has surpassed my expectations. Mining
Minister Ivan Merino is no friend of the mining companies and they know it (e.g his wife heads
up a hard left anti-mining NGO), but he has been fair with them at the same time, case in point
Las Bambas. Yes, the PL party can now use blockades as a political weapon, but they are also
open to deals and the result has been to bring back to the table the project to solve all
transport problems, that of a rail connection to Las Bambas instead if the current roadways.
We’ll end today with this small case example and by way of a potted history, in the final
construction phase of Las Bambas, its new owner MMG didn't want to add the extra capex to a
project that had already ballooned to around U$4bn over budget. Plans for a slurry pipe, then
the rail line were quietly dropped, instead the friendly government office gave EIA approval to
upward of 150 heavy trucks per day to carry concentrate past small villages on dirt track roads.
As we now know, chaos ensued and the protests from locals have been constant since the mine
opened. But this time, instead of vague promises of asphalting roads, it seems the Castillo
19
government under Ivan Merino's charge is getting China to pay for its "Mining Corridor
Railroad". This would be a precedent for the type of social win-win this Castillo government is
looking for, which would bring benefit to locals and a better corporate image for MMG/Las
Bambas (and not before time) in exchange for required and welcome FDI. More resolutions of
this type will improve the Castillo government’s image.
Market Watching
Tracking the Buy Peru call
Despite the calmer political atmosphere, the main ETC index tracker for the BVL index (EPU,
has so far failed to show signs of revival:
This may change with this weekend’s news (7) that Julio Velarde has been confirmed as Central
Bank head and will stay in the role for the next five years. The announcement came after
market close Friday and will calm the nerves of forex and bonds markets. Last week the Peru
Sol hit a new maximum against the USD, with uncertainty in the air and the close of Q3:
That S/4.13 close may turn out to be a bargain, at least in the near-term, thanks to the Velarde
news.
Harte Gold (HRT.to): An eye on the side bet
Not a great result from our small side bet last week, as the deadline for agreement between
Harte Gold (HRT.to) and its main creditor
BHPP came and went with only this news to
show (8), which booted the forbearance
agreement forward one more month and gave
HRT and those around it, including New Gold
(NGD) of course, another month to come to
an agreement. Not a good result after the two
month wait and unsurprisingly, the stock sold
off:
20
However, this party no longer goes on forever. A reminder that on August 3rd Appian delivered
its notice of default to all parties, including to senior credit holder BHPP. The rules state all
parties then have 135 days, after which Appian can act unilaterally on bankruptcy proceedings.
That means this goes no further than December 14th 2021, so one way or another we will get
resolution at that point. This personal side bet will remain open until then, but there won’t be
the same type of weekly HRT coverage in October or November, at least until we get real news.
Norsemont Mining (NOM.cse) loses a director
On his arrival at Norsemont Mining (NOM.cse) in June 2020, William (Bill) Koutsouras got the
following blurb:
“Bill Koutsouras is a dynamic leader and entrepreneur with extensive mining industry experience
and in-depth knowledge of the capital markets,” commented Al Larmour, CEO of Norsemont. “His
exceptional track record of financing and transforming mining companies will be very valuable to
the Company as it continues to grow and develop. We are very pleased to welcome Bill to the
Board and look forward to working with him.”
He was also awarded 250,000 options at the going market price at the time, $1.94. However,
on Friday October 1st at 9:12pm, we learned this:
A NR placed on SEDAR late on a Friday evening, with no NR published on the website this
weekend. Although we sold at a loss many months ago and cauterized this bad trade, it’s worth
mentioning NOM today in case there are any doubts. This marks the end of NOM as even a
speculative vehicle on Choquelimpie, as not only the substance of the news but its style (late
Friday, plus “moves to advisory board” in the title instead of the real news) shines all the light
one needs on this company’s prospects.
Aldebaran (ALDE.v) begins its promo (and we look for an exit)
It’s difficult to state “Right On Time”, but seeing Aldebaran (ALDE.v) start its 2021 promotional
campaign last week is a close and pleasing fit to the trade plan we are running here. However,
on contacting ALDE IR this weekend to inquire on a minor data point, this desk was quickly
reminded of this company’s weaknesses:
1) The amateurish nature of this company’s management, particularly in IR has not
changed. This does not bode well for the upcoming marketing campaign.
2) They are planning to finance via a share sale soon.
The process began last week with the ALDE NR (9)
announcing upcoming activity. This is the one that
sets the ball rolling on promotional activities and
marketing, and the announcement brought a technical
rebound in price, back to the recent 70c-or-so ceiling
12 month (chart right). With drilling set to begin
November and a reconfigured resource estimate in the
first part of 2022, ALDE has set out a strategy to
retain market interest and the above chart also
represents a clear breakout opportunity, blue sky
beyond. All that is good and indeed, it’s why I bought
my position in ALDE this year, however an incident
21
last week was more than enough to remind of the risk of exposing cash to this team, at least
over a longer-term period.
Once again, I find myself reporting what others will consider another “throw toys out of pram”
moment, similar in effect to the rejection and issues aired regarding Regulus Resources (REG.v)
and my decision to sell out in 2020. What’s less amusing is that at REG, time proved me
absolutely correct about the lax management and poor IR (we haven’t had a NR REG since
before the second round of voting in the Peru election) and my “toy throwing” presaged the
issued that plague the company to this day.
Now we move to the present day and last week at ALDE and here’s the thing: I know these
people do not like me, a statement that certainly goes for John Black, Kevin Heather and Laura
Brangwin in IR. It’s also true for their cousin-companies, loosely described as The Regulus
Guys, including Chakana Copper (PERU.v)’s David Kelley, the whole Candente Copper team and
others beside. But today’s note isn’t about pals and friends, rather professional standards as on
Friday, I had the pleasure of being deliberately ghosted in a mail exchange with Laura
Brangwin. Not only did she refuse to answer a simple, straightforward and non-confidential
question regarding Aldebaran but she did so using modern internet’s passive insult, the
ghosting. When this was pointed out to her superiors, i.e. that a shareholder and professional
analyst had been ghosted by their IR department, I also received no reply from them.
In other words, on Friday I discovered that at least John Black, Kevin Heather and Laura
Brangwin still hold enough personal grudge to be unable to perform their basic professional
duties. This is no small point, as the root cause of this incident is the same that has caused so
many problems over the years at The Regulus Companies.
Let’s start with the obvious, I know how annoying I can be. Your author is no shrinking violet
when it comes to airing grievances or defending his name and it’s even worse when proven
right later. Which brings in the classic judge, the consideration of recent share price action
and the well-documented errors and ball-drops at these companies, as well as mediocre share
price action, hardly give these people a strong platform to push back against the likes of me.
Let’s also note the annoying shift this group has made in its media presence, away from the
standard channels of communication. These days, independent analysts with difficult questions
are dropped in favour of friendly social media channels, with third parties reporting long
conversations with CEOs (for which there’s liability if the information turns out to be wrong). As
from this weekend, we can now add the active blocking of independent analysts by Regulus
Group as its standard IR practices. This is hardly the attitude toward IR, media or general CSR
we want from a company moving forward in a place as politically sensitive as Argentina. We’ve
seen how its CSR failure cost REG in Cajamarca (still zero metres drilled this year), are we
supposed to entrust our money with the same people in The Basket Case Country as well?
https://aldebaranresources.com/news-releases/2021/aldebaran-announces-commencement-of-2021-
2022-exploration-program-at-altar/
https://aldebaranresources.com/site/assets/files/5765/aldebaran_resources_corporate_presentation_sep_
30_2021.pdf
Having been up-close and personal with the Regulus Group team, once the corporate decision
to ghost became apparent, I knew the decision had come from Kevin Heather. Undoubtedly one
of the best geologists I’ve ever met, his ego is also well established, as his ability to hold a
grudge to the point where it ruins professional relationships inside his companies. Seemingly
unrelated issues have the same root cause, such as the way talented geologists quietly leave
and are replaced by students. It shows in his Argentine political opinion, which starts and
finishes with personal opinions of Cristina Kirchner. As for ghosting me, that’s just fun. A small
company is always a reflection of its management. In this case, ALDE is being run by
unprofessional people who, if unbecoming with me, must tke the same off-hand attitude with
22
other shareholders as they bring justified criticisms to bear on the company. How many other
people have been rubbed up the wrong way by this patent lack of IR and media
professionalism? Once again, I point readers to the share price performance and ask, what
have you done for us lately, ALDE?
Enter Josemaria Resources (JOSE.v)
With its market cap of just under $400m and one of the most advanced copper porphyry
projects on the while Andean Cordillera, North to South, JOSE.v is already a fix for The IKN
Weekly Copper Basket in 2022. But somewhat ironically, as ALDE chases analysts away with a
kindergarten-level corporate attitude toward its IR and marketing, a professional team moving
forward at its advanced stage copper project, right next door in San Juan, and on being
rebuffed by ALDE last week I began to wonder just why I wasn’t in Josemaria Resources
(JOSE.v), instead of trading ALDE as proxy. Here’s a brief outline:
Along with sister company Filo Mining (FIL.v), JOSE.v is the centre of activity in San Juan today
and mentioned constantly by national and local government officials as part of the future of the
copper industry in the country. One that has a defined, multi-billion pound resource with robust
economics and, most important of all, the financial backers who will certainly fund it into
production and allow shareholders to benefit from the type of multi-bagger win we always seek
in the exploreco world. It’s also a serious resource:
Those 6.7Bn lbs copper come with an important gold kicker, its low grade making it a high
capex open pit project. Its permitting track expects major EIA and construction permits in early
2022, which would start the ball rolling on full development and make Josemaria the first mine
in this new San Juan high altitude camp.
Being minority shareholders of small explorecos at this stage of development can sometimes be
trappy, they can be starved out by bigger concerns competing for control of the project, but
that’s not an issue with JOSE. The Lundin Estate holding companies hold 31% of shares out
alone, the Chair has over 7m shares and as the Lundin Group’s equity position in JOSE will
provide the biggest percentage win of its total position in the company, they aren’t about t
dilute themselves (or us) out too heavily. Meanwhile, in mining circles it goes without saying
that the board and families behind the Josemaria project are ones that will have no problem in
raising the capex required. Their terms will favour Lundin people over little people, that also
goes without saying but we, the retail minnow, are assured of fair passage within the accepted
rules of the game. All that is a long-winded way of saying “coat-tail Lukas and win”. With the
change and clear improvement in political atmosphere in Argentina toward mining, plus a
Mining Secretary in Alberto Hensel looking for his big policy win and pushing San Juan hard to
get it, now is the time to do just that.
23
As my trades stand today, it’s the right moment to hold on to the ALDE shares and see if the
price can bust through the 70c ceiling and into blue sky. If that happened, the temptation
would be great to take profits in ALDE and move the cash to a company less likely to upset
people on a regular basis, be they shareholders analysts of government officials.
The Minera IRL (MIRL.cse) internal audit
A brief update, that I will also publish to the SI notice board presently: I’ve exchanged with a
couple of fellow shareholders with insight into the legal aspects of this battle, the consensus is
clear that we should indeed allow the internal audit currently underway at MIRL to run its
course. Three matters arising:
Shareholder pressure on the directors to start this audit worked. We should continue to
pressure them to investigate our principal bone of contention, the CVs of the three new
executives hired by MIRL. We an do this by mailing in to the appropriate people.
As they will surely establish the three are unqualified, we should also pressure the
committee to inquire to CEO Benavides regarding his motives for their appointments.
This would lead them to the Haywood connection and how he decided to fake a C-suite
to appease them, else continue to be effectively un-marketable as a company or
project.
However, we cannot let this audit go on forever and we have no indication as to how
long the committee will take to report back. AGM materials need consideration soon, so
I believe we are in our rights to ask the committee for an estimated date for their
report and findings. After that, we will be in a position to act if necessary.
Finally, I’ve received a couple of mails that doubt whether we have either the votes or the
required momentum to oust CEO Benavides in December. The answer to both is a resounding
“yes”, however it’s also understandable that most MIRL shareholders prefer to remain passive
and just vote their votes on the day. We are in something of a quiet phase, only because the
ball is in the court of the company. No matter how reluctant it was to come to the table and
pay attention to our demands, no matter how “pally” the make-up of its audit committee, it is
only correct to give the board of directors due opportunity to fulfil its fiduciary requirements
toward shareholders.
Conclusion
IKN645 is done, we end with a couple of brief bullet points:
We insist on QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), there is more near-term upside to enjoy.
Copper is going higher in 4q21, make sure you are positioned.
Overall, Q3 was a quarter to forget for the mining industry, let’s hope the AEM/KL deal
24
brings a better Q4.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://qccopper.com/site/assets/files/2670/3qc_copper_investor_presentation_2021_09_19.pdf
(2) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4R4mfBAD4c
(3) https://iknnews.com/qc-copper-gold-qccu-v-charles-beaudry-on-opemiska/
(4) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/baselode-annouces-uranium-discovery-drills-100000343.html
(5) https://www.reuters.com/article/global-metals-idUSL1N2QV0XC
(6) https://www.westerncopperandgold.com/news-and-resources/news-release/western-copper-and-gold-announces-
appointment-of-vp-environmental-community-affairs/
(7) https://gestion.pe/economia/confirmado-julio-velarde-seguira-al-frente-del-bcr-por-cinco-anos-mas-noticia/
(8) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/harte-gold-announces-amendment-forbearance-000000135.html
(9) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aldebaran-announces-commencement-2021-2022-110000880.html
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
25
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
26
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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