IKN #644Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 644, September 26th 2021
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In Today’s Edition, Kirkland Lake (KL) is in-play and about to be
sold to the highest bidder, Evergrande was edited out.
Fundamental Analysis: The QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v) maiden resource.
Stocks to Follow: Altiplano Metals (APN.v), Copper Mountain (CMMC.to), Minera IRL
(MIRL.cse), Royal Road (RYR.v), Argonaut Gold (AR.to).
Copper Basket: Overview, Solaris (SLS.to), Element 20 (ECU.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Kirkland Lake (KL), Newcrest (NCM), Barrick (GOLD), Agnico
Eagle (AEM), Newmont (NEM).
Tiny Dogs: Overview, Warrior Gold (WAR.v).
Regional Politics: Argentina getting serious about mining.
Market Watching: Minera IRL (MIRL.cse) and an internal audit.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
“
Trade heads-up
I will add to my position in QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v) as from tomorrow, with a view to
building a long-term position.
I have not decided whether to buy any Kirkland Lake (KL) shares on the back of tonight’s
exclusive. A lot depends on the price tomorrow morning and if I do, they will be for a fliptrade
and not major speculative position. Portfolio cash will focus on junior mining, not senior.
In Today’s Edition
 Up to yesterday Saturday, the raison d’être for IKN644 was set to be the QCCU note.
That’s likely to have changed, trumped by information gathered in the last 24 hours
from reliable and separate sources. Kirkland Lake (KL) is up for sale, it nearly went to
Barrick just a few days ago but the deal fell through, now the resumed marketing
process sees Newcrest (NCM) and Agnico (AEM) leading the chase for the prize. See
today’s intro section.
 The Maiden Resource Estimate (MRE) out of our small copper trade, QC Copper & Gold
(QCCU.v), was met by plenty of market love and a big price move. All good so far,
therefore it’s time to get serious on the stock. Today’s main event is a NOBS report on
the stock, which includes a first pass on what they might have by way of a mine and a
reasonable price target for the stock going forward. As a personal aside, it was a
pleasant to write this one.
 Last week we banged on our copper-plated tabletop and declared “China is running
out” of the metal, predicted supply squeezes in Q4 and urged to position in the metal
today. Same story this weekend, all evidence continues to point the same way, see The
1

Copper Basket for more.
Kirkland Lake (KL) is in-play and about to be sold to the highest bidder
The intro to week’s edition expands on the scoop, as published on the blog this Sunday evening
(1), that Kirkland Lake (KL) is running a sales process and is about to be sold to the highest
bidder. Some background, as there are no links or third party reports: This Saturday evening, I
received information from a source that has proven reliable on previous occasions. It was
certainly interesting enough to act, so yesterday evening and this Sunday morning I reached
out, checked the intel with a few well-placed people and quickly discovered that I should have
asked them before. With enough of the original intel corroborated I decided to publish because
the core is rock solid, KL is in-play. No doubts.
We’ll do this in bullet point form, to keep the sequence of events as clear as possible:
 The process is being led by BMO and is something of a second bite at the apple,
because until very recently KL was under exclusivity with Barrick (GOLD) but at the
moment of truth, the deal fell through.
 Regarding that, we now have a clearer picture as to why KL announced its 10.1m oz
reserve improvement to Detour Lake in the days leading to the Denver Show (2). The
process had been under wraps, but we now hear that Barrick and Kirkland Lake were
looking to announce a friendly deal to buy KL at the Denver Show (3), two weeks ago.
 However, when it came to the final price GOLD CEO Bristow insisted on a number KL
CEO Makuch couldn’t accept, too low compared to market. but Bristow wouldn’t budge
(and I do not know why, but maybe he thought KL leaks were pushing up the PPS) and
instead of a deal, KL instead announced the extra 10m oz that would have made
Barrick look like smart buyers once they’d announced it, further down the line. And
Mark Bristow was left to reflect to the assembled masses that “there was still a long
way to go” in sector consolidation.
 That 10.1m oz reserve pop was also the de facto green light for other companies to
enter (re-enter?) the process to buy KL. In retrospect it was obvious; with GOLD’s
exclusivity gone KL lays out its present-day asset value, accepting bids from all sides.
 We understand there are four large players are still in the official bidding process,
namely Newmont (NEM), Agnico (AEM), Newcrest (NCM) and Barrick (GOLD), which is
still interested despite the rebuttal. Of the four, we understand that Newcrest (NCM)
has now emerged as the most likely winning suitor, though stress that nothing has
been decided as yet.
 As well as the intel side of things, NCM would make a suitable and logical purchaser of
Kirkland Lake, here are a four reasons though at this point, we leave the world of
reliable information from trusted third parties and start to add conjecture and logical
probabilities. So read on for fruits of exchanges I’ve had today with “persons close to
the story” (as they say).
 First up, there’s sheer size: There aren’t many companies on the world stage with the
simple market cap to buy (or merger as equal) with Kirkland Lake. NCM, at roughly
U$14Bn is one of them and brings modest superiority to the table against KL’s
U$11.5Bn (approx).
 Secondly, NCM has just moved into Canada with its first-foot purchase of Red Chris
and, while the merits of that deal can be debated, that single asset is surely just the
beginning of NCM’s presence in one of the world’s top mining countries.
 Third point, the Fosterville synergies NCM are obvious and, a Mercator map will suffice.
That KL’s jewel in the crown is located on NCMs home patch makes matters a lot
2

easier. We should also note how KL CEO Tony Makuch has managed the Fosterville well
recently, brining the market down from his previously over-ambitious claims and now
marketing the asset as a highly profitable, regular, longer life asset. Not only that, but
the type of mining at Fosterville is NCM to a tee.
 Finally, the boards of Australian companies are naturally more aggressive, due in part
to character, but also to the regulatory framework of Australian listed companies that s
conducive to activist shareholders at an insto level. NCM is also in its centenary year as
a company, having started operations in 1921. It would be the type of banner deal to
cap its year, it would allow it some distance from other major Australian mining
companies now snapping at its heels for a place at the top table. Even here, at the
high-level corporate level, a deal to buy KL fits and one of my correspondents voiced
something I’ve been thinking for a while; that Aussie miners overpay for assets. There
may be a vicious (virtuous?) circle at boardroom level, with Aussie shareholders
expecting more from their companies, plus execs willing to take one extra risk.
All this certainly does NOT rule out a winning bid from Agnico, or Newmont or even Barrick, but
NCM is currently positioned and has plenty of good reason to move, whetever the eventual
price might be. That wraps up the exclusive, which can be summed up in one simple sentence:
Kirkland Lake (KL) is in-play and is set to go to the highest bidder, with current
favourite among four suitors Australia’s Newcrest (NCM). You heard it here first.
Finally, please see today’s Producer Basket for some chartwork on KL and the other names
involved with this M&A story. New information fits well with the squiggly lines.
Evergrande was edited out
Last weekend saw the rise and rise of the Evergrande crisis, with the Asia markets already
roiling and a bumpy ride expected for the open Monday. At the time, I was busy writing up
IKN643 and aware of the storm, but as some of you noted there was nothing in the edition last
weekend. As things turned out Evergrande on Monday was enough to affect the big market
levers, such as Chinese stock markets and copper spot prices, so perhaps (and only perhaps) I
should have written a word or two. Instead, and a few of you who wrote in already know, I
wrote one paragraph in the intro, but simply thought
it wasn’t on my patch. Asia real estate is not LatAm
mining, I’m opinionated enough as it is, “it’s for
somebody else”.
So I got the sentiment wrong and Monday was full of
the big headlines about Evergrande. Cut to this
weekend, and this (right) is what I got from a simple
Google search of the single word. FWIW, I decided
to make an example of the whole screenshot (rather
than pick a link or two) when seeing that “How China
Plans to Avert…” story from the NYT, listed just two
hours before my search. Nice timing.
My point: We have witnessed how the financial world
1) escaped by the skin of its teeth from the 2008
GFC, then 2) watched how all the lessons it learned
over 12 years were employed to great effect for the
Covid-19 crisis. It’s difficult to get worried about
Evergrande becoming the domino that will crash
world markets. I am not trying to belittle the size and
scope of Evergrande Sep’21, however perspective is
required and the roadmap to avoid full-scale “Asian Flu” or “Tequila Effect” market contagion
(for those of us who remember financial crisis monikers from another age) is clear. Expect me
to miss the next Evergrande Event, too.
3

I’ll leave you with our regular GLD inventory charts, even though I almost edited them out this
weekend:
7.60 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2021 to date
7.40
7.20
7.00
6.80
6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80
5.60
Not that much to report on the two charts, though sentiment did improve last week and bounce
off that 6.0X line again. It always breaks higher eventually, that double bounce may be enough.
And one final chart in today’s intro, to help you keep the eyes on the real prize in this edition,
rather than chasing the latest flash news on big table M&A:
Supply and demand on copper beats the human fear factor, once again. This is your reminder
to go check The Copper Basket, if only for the SHFE warehouse data. Bullish.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
The QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v) Maiden Resource
On the back of the Maiden Resource Estimate for Opemiska last week, we today take a close
look at the promising copper exploreco, QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v) for the first time. So even
though it’s an established name on these pages let’s run a formal description and set out the
share structure:
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v) is small, exploration-stage mining company developing assets in
Canada, with a focus on Quebec. Its flagship asset is the with limited, non-commercial
production at one asset and plans to move others into production. Most of its projects are
located in Chile, with one in Nicaragua. Current share structure is as follows:
4
2/1/0202 1/2/0202 2/3/0202 1/4/0202 1/5/0202 13/5/0202 03/6/0202 03/7/0202 92/8/0202 82/9/0202 82/01/0202 72/11/0202 72/21/0202 62/1/1202 52/2/1202 72/3/1202 62/4/1202 62/5/1202 52/6/1202 52/7/1202 42/8/1202 32/9/1202
GLD gold holdings, 2020 to date (metric tonnes)
1400
1350
1300
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs 900
850
800
02/1/1 02/2/1 02/3/1 02/4/1 02/5/1 02/6/1 02/7/1 02/8/1 02/9/1 02/01/1 02/11/1 02/21/1 12/1/1 12/2/1 12/3/1 12/4/1 12/5/1 12/6/1 12/7/1 12/8/1 12/9/1
mt
source: SPDR GLD data

Shares out: 117.2m
Options: 10.3m
Warrants: 38.9m
Fully diluted shares: 166.7m
Current share price: C$0.29
Market Cap: C$33.98m
Approx cash per S/O: C$0.025
All prices are in US Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.80=CAD$1
NB: All prices in Canadian Dollars unless stated, however for the sake of simplicity we use and specify US Dollars in the
valuation model for Opemiska
Preamble: We have covered QCCU previously, however, so we can set aside of the basic
background on the company, its projects and corporate roster. Instead, today’s note is
designed to be actionable and focused on the main development at QCCU, the Maiden Resource
Estimate (MRE) for Opemiska and what it means for the company. You get five main topics
today
 Notes from my conversation with CEO Stephen Stewart
 Company financials overview, with reasonable ballparks for upcoming quarters
 An overview of the Opemiska Maiden Resource Estimate (MRE)
 Some valuation parameters
 Discussion and conclusion
And to make things neater, here are the links to the latest IKN post on QCCU last week (4) the
company NR from last Monday (5) and the latest corporate presentation (6), bang up to date
and with plenty on the new MRE and all as mentioned below. Let’s get on with it.
Notes from my conversation with CEO Stephen Stewart
On Friday morning, I had the opportunity to quiz CEO Stephen Stewart on the MRE, the
company and several points of interest around the growing QCCU story, so before we lay out
the financial position and run the resource numbers, getting his view on certain corporate and
strategic aspects allows us to make better guesses on its 2022. Subjects during our
conversation on Friday were wide-ranging, I’d like to mention three novel subjects today:
The Baselode Energy (FIND.v) share position: Due to the way the Stewart family “Ore
Group of Companies” re-organized last year, one
of the moves was to split out the assets of what
was then Power One, now called QC Copper &
Gold (QCCU.v) and our focus today. Part of that
was to spin out a uranium exploreco and, long
story short, by selling the Mann property to the
newly formed Baselode Energy (FIND.v). In
return QCCU got 17,857,143 shares of FIND.v
and, with the recent interest in the U sector and
the pop in “spot” prices, here’s how the 12
month chart of FIND looks:
This weekend’s C$0.58 share price values the
QCCU position in FIND at C$10.36m, a lot of
money for a small exploreco (and a lot more
than the $1,5m perceived value of the original deal. It would make sense to change some of
these share into cash and fund company development, so when asked about the plans for this
share bloc (held as a fixed asset via the equity method, the best way and one that avoids wild
fluctuations in asset values), it was good to learn CEO Stewart is open to selling a portion of the
stake in order to raise cash. Though it’s clear QCCU won’t sell them all, even a sale of half its
position would bring the type of cash that makes a real difference to budget plans and avoiding
5

share dilution.
It’s by no means an automatic process, as a suitable buyer is needed for such a block trade, but
knowing QCCU is willing to use its windfall cash from last year’s spin-out is a positive.
An upcoming financing: We should expect QCU to go to market and raise capital before the
end of 2021. However and after talking to CEO Stewart on this, I expect the financing to
happen on favourable terms to present shareholders (and that’s a rare thing to write). In point
of fact, the notice for this year’s AGM also includes details of a EGM matter and we should
expect that to be connected to financing plans. QCCU has an 2022 to fund, the 50k to 75k of
drill metres planned will cost maybe 15% per metre more than in 2021, and getting busy at
Opemiska also means a larger officer’s roster, including a second high-level geologist to work
under VP Ex Beaudry. However, this company has already impressed me with its careful
attitude toward money, as well as thinking outside the box.
Last week’s market action: Aside from the good news delivered by the company on
Monday, a few words about the way QCCU traded last week. One of the attractions of this stock
is its under-the-radar style, the company avoiding the marketing world of social media and “the
conference circuit”. This low-key market presence will now change a confident prediction based
on not just the substance of last week’s price rise, but the style:
The ten-day chart records the impressive surge in traded volume, one that continued all week.
While watching QCCU’s tape last week, the size of trades taken from the ask also speak of
institutions taking a position. Not surprising, as the Canadian brokerage world has largely been
blind-sided by this impressive resource “out of nowhere” and the desks all have to scrap for a
new position. The way QCCU has avoided insto attention also means a low short position, they
will have less ability to play around with the stock price as we move into the financing round.
Company financials overview
In this we run our Usual Suspect charts, adding some reasonable ballparks for upcoming
quarters because we expect QCCU to be a different animal soon. To begin a little back to front,
a look at how we expect the share count to evolve:
QCCU.v: Shares out (m)
6
4.93 4.93 4.35 4.35 7.85 8.07
9.701 7.311 2.711 0.041
0.081
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q43
source: company filings, IKN ests
We’re going to see the count rise in the next few quarters for three main reasons:

 All options and warrants are now in the money, with most exercise limit dates in 2022
(and they start with around 4m warrants coming due in December this year). That’s
dilution to the current count, but it’s also cheap treasury and assuming all are made
whole would represent C$5.1m in cash that QCCU could use on exploration.
 QCCU has staged payments on several of its properties, including Cook Robetaille and
the flagship Opemiska, that include share payments to the vendors.
 The company will go to market in order to raise cash. From the conversations with CEO
Stewart, I’m expecting shareholder-friendly and competitive terms, but all the same an
equity sale will add to shares out.
Today’s share count of 117.2m will go up, not least due to those warrants and options.
Therefore, rather than trying to track every quarter, we assume QCCU leaves 2022 at around
180m shares out until proven otherwise. As for the target price and valuation metrics, I’ve used
a round 200m in the model (below) in order to add one extra layer of conservatism.
Now we have the share count clear and what we expect, here are some balance sheet charts to
indicate the financial effects of the share count and, as we dive in, a couple of quick reminders
about QCCU:
 It financial year ends in October, which means its latest filing is for its 2q21, ended
April 30th. We expect the 3q21 (end July) numbers soon.
 QCCU is a relatively young company, formed from the split-up/spin-out operation of
Power One, last year. In effect, we
have four valid quarters of data, but
the extrapolations to the current two
quarters will be close.
We begin with assets, which we expect to
fluctuate as QCCU brings in cash from financing
activities, be they the selling of their own
shares, or the selling of FIND.v shares. The
company should then continue to expense its
operations and we hope it burns cash more
quickly than in 2021, as drills turn and activity
increases.
As liabilities are tiny and in the optimum style for this stage of company…
QCCU.v: Liabilities, per qtr
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
7
91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2
source: company filings/est
srallod
fo
snoillim
QCCU.v: Assets, per qtr
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
LT liabs
current liabs
… and QCCU expenses its efforts, the treasury position and the working cap chart are all-but
identical in shape and message, so here’s just one of them:
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2
$m
fixed
other current
cash
source: company filings/IKN ests

QCCU.v: Working Capital per qtr
8
343.0 417.0 306.0
603.1 864.1
571.6
108.4
3.3 2.2
1.9
3.6
10
9
8
7
6
5
4 3
2
1
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2
source company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
We expect QCCU to raise capital and move into 2022 fully equipped to accelerate exploration.
As for operational expenses, to date QCCU has
been the epitome of the tightly-run small QCCU.v: Expenses breakdown
5
exploreco:
4
The latest quarter is an indication of a faster 3
cash burn, that will continue. The combo of
2
general cost creep, the expanding drill program
1
and the desire to expand the officer bench
means all line items will see extra soon, and the 0
main “exploration expenses” is dominated by
-1
the money put into Opemiska. Quite right too, I
want to see the company as busy as possible in
the next 12 months as now is the time to add
multiple to shareholder value.
The bottom line: QCCU is a young and financially clean exploreco that’s in position to grow
according to its discovery. The share count will continue to click up, however, so rather than
making your estimates on the current 117.2m shares out, consider the 180m we call for the
end of FY22 or the use of 200m in the valuation model, below.
An overview of the Opemiska Maiden Resource Estimate (MRE)
We now come to the star of the show and the reason QCCU is suddenly hot. A good place to
begin is the table from last week’s NR (8) that details the Opemiska Maiden Resource Estimate
(MRE). Notes below:
There’s plenty to like about those numbers. A major positive is seeing so much of an MRE in
Measured & Indicated (M+I) category (and most in measured category). The deposit and
history of old workings does lend itself to a better geological understanding at this early stage
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2
C$m
other
Prof fees
cons/mgmt fees
Exploration exp
source: company filings

(historic drill core, old mine plans versus production results, etc) but even the QCCU team were
pleasantly surprised by the high level of M+I, according to CEO Stewart.
We also note that the resource is pit optimized, rather than in resting in the world of geological
theory as many MRE using advantageous block modelling. This brings more confidence to the
numbers, and while on bonafides it’s good to see the peer-renowned and reputable P&E Mining
Consultants Inc. as third party compilers, that adds an extra layer of seriousness to Opemiska.
As for the economic criteria, here’s what QCCU says:
“The 0.20% CuEq cut-off grade was derived from the approximate August 2021
Consensus Economics long term forecast Cu and Au prices of US$3.50/lb and
US$1,650/oz, US$ exchange rate of $0.76, 80% Cu process recovery and smelter
payable, mining C$2.25/t, processing C$13/t, G&A $3/t. CuEq% = Cu% + (Au g/t x
0.72) + (Ag g/t x 0.01).
Nobody can complain about them choosing a 0.2% CuEq cut-off, when the total M+I
percentage resource is over 300% higher.
Good to see QCCU using U$3.50/lb for copper, that’s the right number for a junior to pitch its
base case these days and provides the correct air of seriousness to the numbers, without selling
.
itself too short. The U$1,650/oz gold number is reasonable, too
The “80% Cu process recovery and smelter payable” number is too high for my taste. I am
aware that historic Cu recoveries ran at over 90% copper (to 94%), but that was the vein
material rather than adding the low-grade disseminated material. In my ballpark calculation, I
use 90% copper recovery, 70% gold recovery and then a 20% TC/RC adjustment. That final
one may be too sharp, but building comfort into economic models is the way of The IKN
Weekly.
Although the parameters used by QCCU for open (C$2.25/t, processing C$13/t, G&A $3/t) are
reasonable, after considering recent industry-wide cost creep we add between 10% and 20% to
op-ex cost items in the house model (compared to the QCCU numbers). Again, we err to the
side of caution.
As for the details on the MRE, we will have to
wait for the filing of the 43-101 for the nitty-
gritty, but QCCU supplied some maps and data
with last week’s NR including this overview of
the mineralization (right).
Clearly, the Springer zone and its low-hanging
fruit of Crown Pillars and veins with known
dissemination. The next image below (the
QCCU Fig.2 from last week) shows the location
of the projected high-grade starter pits which
(quote/unquote), “…host 10.6 million tonnes
grading 1.26% CuEq, or +45% higher grade
than the overall Mineral Resource.”
9

That data will allow us to get a handle on what a starter pit at Opemiska might be capable of
generating. We crunch the numbers below, here we consider that the main area for starter pit
grades is the Springer side of the deposit. Therefore we can get a decent idea of the grades
that starter pit would run by checking the higher cut-offs in that part of the resource. The NR
has a reasonably detailed table of the resource (for an NR at this MRE stage, at least) and
QCCU reports identifying just under 11m tonnes of higher-grading material.
To get an idea of what those rocks may entail, note the high 1.0% CuEq cut-off level for the
main Springer pit area show 14.87m tonnes (close to QCCU’s preliminary “starter pit” number),
that rock averaging 1.27% Cu and 0.91 g/t Au from the sweet spot of the measured resource
at Springer. They are grades that outline what a 10ktpd starter pit could do in the first three
years of production. They also include well-defined, low-hanging fruit such as the crown pillar
of the previous underground mining operation, so confidence will be high on the resource.
Valuation parameters on QCCU
This section of an IKN fundies report normally goes under the title “valuing XYZ” or “A target
price for ABC”, but today is more cautious. That’s because it’s one thing to run numbers on a
MRE, quite another to see those numbers move through the stages of development largely
intact. QCCU at Opemiska is best understood as a moving target. We have to project maybe
five years out at a mine that may never happen, because if QCCU finds more success with the
drill bit the true value of the company will become its in-situ mineral, rather than the cash flow
from any eventual mine. However, with last week’s MRE we do have enough information to
“build a mine” and even if then company finds nothing else in the future, our model
demonstrates the company is currently valued very cheaply.
We begin by outlining the mine we model at Opemiska. Though the current 81.67 million
metric tonnes (mmt) and 21.35mmt inferred would be enough to feed a 20,000 tonnes per day
(tpd) mine for almost 15 years, we don’t expect QCCU to go that way. Instead, we model a
10,000tpd mine that runs the high-grade Starter Pit material for three years, after which we’d
expect the overall long-term plan to improve as the mine is operated and more is discovered.
This brings us to our first table, whichto the left shows production at 10,000 tpd over the Life of
Mine, using the house guesses of 90% copper recovery and 70% gold recovery.
QCCU at Opemiska: Production at 10,000tpd
throughput case LoM Starter
Avg Cu % grade 0.88% 1.27%
Cu prod Mlbs 61.1 88.1
Avg Au grade (g/t) 0.31 0.91
Au prod oz 24,421 71,688
at $4/lb Cu/$1.7k Au $285.78m $474.39m
source: QCCU data, IKN calcs & estimates
We model our 10,000tpd Opemiska operation to produce 61.1m lbs copper per year, as well as
an average of 24,421oz gold per year over Life of Mine (LoM). However, to the right we have
the numbers generated by the averages of the “starter pit”, including better copper grades and
much better gold grades. The final line item gives some idea of the difference in revenues
possible. On that subject, we now set aside the Utopia of the Starter Pit numbers and base our
model on the LoM averages, plus 90% recovery for copper and 70% for gold. Here’s how our
model revenue table spits out its results at four different price cases:
 Base case: U$3.50/lb copper and U$1,500/oz gold, to reflect a line in the sand
 Current case: U$4.00/lb copper and U$1,700/oz gold, to reflect the low end of reality in
late 2021
 Upper case: U$4.50/lb copper and U$1,800/oz gold, to look optimistically at reality in
late 2021
 Blue Sky case: U$5.00/lb copper and U$2,000/oz gold, because dreams come true
10

The results, only for the LoM average grades
QCCU at Opemiska: Model Year Revenues & Op Income (U$m)
Price case base current upper blue sky
copper Mlbs 61.1 61.1 61.1 61.1
U$/lb 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00
copper revs $213.89 $244.27 $274.80 $305.34
Prod. gold (Oz) 24,421 24,421 24,421 24,421
U$/oz $1,500 $1,700 $1,800 $2,000
total Au rev $36.63 $41.52 $43.96 $48.84
Total mine rev $250.52 $285.78 $318.76 $354.18
TC/RC/other $50.10 $57.16 $63.75 $70.84
Revenues 200.4 228.6 255.0 283.3
Sources: QCCU data, IKN calcs and estimates
We see that although gold provides a kicker, this mine and revenue mix is all about copper.
Also, please note the heavy 20% TC/RC deduction, but even after that and in our lowball
scenario, a year of Opemiska generates U$228.6m at the current price deck. For context, that’s
less than the likely capex bill to build the machine and capital payback happens in months, not
years. Here’s our condensed incomes statement, which continues to show the wide margins:
QCCU at Opemiska: Income statement model year (U$m)
at 200m S/O base current upper blue sky
Sales (U$m) 200.4 228.6 255.0 283.3
Depreciation 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0
SGA+R&D 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
NSR etc 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.8
Op income 108.4 136.3 162.5 190.5
finance exp. 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
"Quebec Inc" 7.9 10.1 12.2 14.4
Tax (23% eff) 20.8 26.7 32.3 38.2
Net income 69.7 89.5 108.0 127.9
Shares out 200 200 200 200
EPS 0.35 0.45 0.54 0.64
Sust. Capex 10 10 10 10
FCF 0.46 0.56 0.65 0.75
Sources: QCCU data, IKN calcs & estimates
I’ve made some admittedly sweeping assumptions. Such as levies on production revenues that
get lumped under “Quebec Inc”. In fact, anything under the “operating income line isn’t
particularly relevant; the cash flow is what matters at this stage. As for a target, it’s a rather
artificial exercise but here’s the box:
Sales and earnings Valuation data for QCCU.v at Opemiska based on
Price case base current upper bluesky Life of Mine model year production
Sales (U$m) 200 229 255 283 preliminary target $1.34 based on 2x FCF
Sales growth 14% 12% 11% Upside to target 361%
EPS 0.35 0.45 0.54 0.64 Mkt cap (CAD$m) $34 Enterprise value $31
FCF 0.46 0.56 0.65 0.75 P/sales (base) 0.15 EV/sales (base) 0.14
P/E (base) 0.8 EV/EBITDA (base) 0.3
P/E (current) 0.6 EV/EBITDA (current) 0.2
P/E (upper) 0.5 EV/EBITDA (upper) 0.2
11

That C$1.34 target (forex 0.8/1) represents over 300% to this weekend’s price, but it’s only the
roughest of guides. It’s better understood as a tell on the ribust economics of Opemiska.
On that subject, we remind that the above is the LoM grades, because when the Starter Pit
economic potential is considered, the numbers are off-scale. Here’s a model of the same
condensed incomes statement for the Opemiska model year running 10ktpd, but this time we
use the 1.27% copper and 0.91 g/t gold grades found in the richest zones, identified by QCCU
for quick payback:
QCCU at Opemiska STARTER PIT: Income for model year (U$m)
at 200m S/O base current upper blue sky
Sales (U$m) 333.0 379.5 420.5 467.2
Depreciation 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0
SGA+R&D 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
NSR etc 3.3 3.8 4.2 4.7
Op income 239.6 285.7 326.3 372.6
finance exp. 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
"Quebec Inc" 18.4 22.1 25.3 29.0
Tax (23% eff) 48.6 58.3 66.9 76.7
Net income 162.7 195.3 224.1 256.8
Shares out 200 200 200 200
EPS 0.81 0.98 1.12 1.28
Sust. Capex 10 10 10 10
FCF 0.92 1.09 1.23 1.39
Sources: QCCU data, IKN calcs & estimates
The “Current Case” operating income jumps to U$285.7m per year for those first three yrars,
which is crazy. I’m not putting a price target or multiple on that as it’s unrepresentative of the
total deposit, but the above table shows what the first three years would return and gives a
clear indication of the strength in the numbers here; capital payback will be quick under any
mine circumstance.
Other discussion points
A great NR from QCCU and it’s good to be on a winner, but now we need to decide about the
future. This time last week, I would have settled happily for a MRE out of Opemiska with a first
pass of 75mmt in all categories, and most of it inferred. Instead, QCCU delivered 102mmt of
mineral, with outstanding mineral grades at a cut-off that makes for highly economic open-pit
mining. An outstanding MRE and the company got the response it deserved from the market,
too, but it also means this company is worth a lot more than the 29c per share it commands
this weekend. Our model shows the deposit would make for an economically robust mine. In
the immediate future, QCCU has plenty to do and will now expand its programs accordingly. We
like the roadmap to financing and exploration for next year and getting aggressive now is the
right decision. All these things are good and make QCCU a strategic speculation on copper, but
before signing off I want to cover a few of the reasons why QCCU today is a lot more than just
an attractive copper/gold resource.
Location: The more I considered this angle, the better it looks. While constrained to one side by
geology and faulting, the only real impediment to growing the size of Opemiska is permitting
(and eventual success) and the changing of current use of land. The town of Chibougamau sits
literally next door and while there are obvious regulatory standards required for a mine in close
proximity to any urban zone, the town is the archetype Canadian mining town that’s looking to
revive its fortunes. Metals prices allow this, but first the town needs “a win” and this project
checks all the boxes. Location, size, and its historic mine status will help the permitting process,
never mind that in all likelihood we will soon see the phenomenon of the whole town and other
explorecos getting behind QCCU at Opemiska, their pathfinder project to turn the town in to a
21st century mining camp.
12

I’m not suggesting a scenario of automatic, fast-track permitting green lights at every stage,
however it has been clear to this desk for some time that the Opemiska project gets
overwhelming support from the right people, i.e. the townsfolk.
Regional Politics: Additional to the main point of its low risk location above, all of Canada knows
about Plan Quebec, Plan Nord and how the conjunction of national, regional and local forces
known collectively as “Quebec Inc” offer a conducive regulatory and taxation backdrop for
budding enterprises. On checking this point in our recent conversation, CEO Stewart noted the
advantages and how, on many levels, “Quebec Inc” makes life easy for QCCU. The royalty
burden from eventual production comes later, but this trade is nearer-sighted and we are not
expecting QCCU to take Opemiska into production, anyway.
Metallurgy: This desk has been made aware that the amateur hour on Twitter hs tried to throw
shade on QCCU by digging up “limited” and “unsatisfactory” studies made in the 1995 to 2000
period by previous owners, Ex-In. My only suggestion on this subject for anyone worried is
“speak with the company”, the exploration history has no real issues. Also and more
importantly, this mine was operated by Falconbridge for over 50 years. Difficult to have too
many fatal flaws with met over that timespan .
FWIW, while we use a 90% Cu recovery assumption, QCCU is confident about getting 92% to
94% recoveries for copper. Separately on met affairs, when the crown pillar zones and high
grading starter-pit zones are eventually mined, there are several locations that grade very
highly for gold and virtually no copper. That would improve our low assumption of 70% gold
recoveries.
Exploration potential: This needs reiteration, as the potential upside is greater than that of any
eventual pit. In our conversations last week, I was encouraged to hear QCCU doesn’t intend on
hanging around with its development and drilling program. Aside from the metres already in the
core shack, the company is looking to add another 7,500m or so before the end of the year and
a 2022 campaign that would be at least 50,000m, probably more. For the record (and I told
CEO Stewart the same) I would like to see as many metres put into Opemiska in 2022 as
possible and, as he mentioned an upper limit of perhaps 75,000m, that’s now a benchmark. I
want to see this company raise money in the near future and move into 2022, cashed up and
with a program that includes out-step and deeper drilling.
Though not many people have paid attention until now, QCCU has always mentioned its
potential as “The next Detour Lake/Malartic in its presentation literature. With the MRE now in
place, QCCU can expand it program to include out-stepping and deeper exploration drilling, as
well as all the work required to define the current resource more accurately.
Conclusion
The size of last week’s MRE from QCCU came as a pleasant surprise and has brought the
company onto the radar as a live copper prospect at the right time. So far at least, this has
been a starter position in a starter stock but the only course of action possible is to add more.
Once again, this fundies report has no formal price target but, also akin to last week and APN,
there’s an obvious double looking at us even before QCCU begins the next phases of its growth
and development. My yardstick is a simple one, the way we have several copper explorecos in
South America valued at between C$50m and C$70m and all out there looking for the next
massive porphyry. Here, in QCCU, you have a company that will be doing all that in 2022 and
beyond as it dreams of Malartic or Detour Lake…but also has a live project on hand to develop
into a low-cost-high margin mine. It’s the best of both worlds and even though the market cap
is up to C$34m this weekend, there’s a lot of room for a pure exploreco to grow in market cap
terms.
We should expect QCCU to go to market and finance before the end of the year, but with its
low radar to date and instos playing catch-up to hold a position, there’s still plenty of early price
move left in the stock and a QCCU pricing perhaps 150m shares out at C$0.50 in early 2022
13

needs no stretch of the imagination. The first stage of this trade has been successful, it’s now
time to parlay into the second stage as QCCU finds its new market cap level. I am a buyer of
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v) in the week ahead and will add to my position at prices
under 30c. The first target is to see the stock at 50c, which would more fairly valued for what
it has today along with its untapped exploration potential.
Stocks to Follow
Despite the happy ending on Friday, it was another net negative week for miners that saw he
GDX down 2.94% week-over-week and the GDXJ down 3.83%. Our portfolio got hit as a result,
with eight losers (MAI.v, CMMC.to, AR.to, TMQ, SMD.v, MIN.to, AUL.v, MIRL.cse) including
biggest loser Minera IRL (MIRL.cse down 23.8%). However we did get a decent eight winners
(RIO.v, QCCU.v, ALDE.v, APN.v, RYR.v, GBR.v, MENE.v), they included double digit wins from
QC Copper (QCCU.v up 61.1%) and Mene Inc (MENE.v up 12.9%).
With the addition of APN.v to the list, we now have 15 open positions, our self-imposed limit.
Just four of our open stocks are in the green, which is just as pathetic as last week.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.54 157.1% $1.14 tgt Aug'20, #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.60 -27.7% $1.30 tgt on capex raise, Jul21
Recommended stocks (In order of preference)
Copper Mountain CMMC.to STR BUY C$3.42 18-Jun-21 C$3.01 -12.0% Top value Cu play, adding again
Argonaut Gold AR.to STR BUY C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.87 -2.7% All right signs, added more
Trilogy Metals TMQ BUY U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.80 -2.2% Cu for 2021, going well
QC Copper &Gold QCCU.v STR BUY C$0.205 25-Apr-21 C$0.29 41.5% Cu Jr, fast-tracking resource
Strategic Metals SMD.v hold C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% Canadian land bet/Value trap?
Excelsior Mining MIN.to hold C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.54 -41.9% Delayed, great value if it works
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.68 16-May-21 C$0.60 -11.8% Bet on big copper, pol risk ok
Altiplano Metals APN.v BUY C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.31 0.0% Cheap entry, about to re-rate
Royal Road Min. RYR.v BUY C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.27 74.2% Model paying off in Nica
Great Bear Res GBR.v BUY C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$13.57 -14.3% Binary M&A trade, wait for print
Aurelius Min. AUL.v hold/sell? C$0.75 28-Jun-20 C$0.31 -58.7% has until its 43-101 to improve
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.08 -59.0% CEO change will move stock
Long-term non-mining hold
Mene Inc. MENE.v LT Hold C$0.68 6-Dec-20 C$0.85 25.0% LT bet, added again July'21
14

Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Mining NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Resources ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
2015 to 2020 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on a couple of our covered stocks:
Altiplano Metals (APN.v): POSITION OPENED I knew I’d have to pay at least 30c, so
waited until Monday went bid30/ask31 and got it
over with. From then APN continued to get buyers
all week, but the final Friday trades brought it back.
That’s all.
It now depends on copper and the bigger market
forces, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see 30c again
in the days ahead. Fight the pennies for the entry
price, but the reason is the window of opportunity
and, as I don’t expect that to last, in this case I’ve
already bought all I want this small trade. Also for
what it’s worth you get a small anecdotal on
feedback, as it included two separate but
remarkably similar mails from subscribers. Both
were from self-described long-term holders of APN, both were in general agreement with the
contents of the note (as first pass coverage goes), both were happy to see me as a buyer.
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to): ADDED and, by blind luck, I even got them at well under the
$3 I expected. The bonus Evergrande entry window also saw me adding a few more than
planned at a better price, as a result the new personal C$3.42 cost average is correct within
half a cent (ex-commissions). And a massive bargain.
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): MIRL rose two weeks ago when the company obliged its new
“executives” (term used loosely) to buy some shares, adding another later of paper to their
Potemkin Village show. MIRL dropped back last week when we discovered these people are not
even capable of putting a month’s worth of their bloated salaries into the stock. For the record,
if insiders want to buy 40m shares at 25c I know where they can find them.
Royal Road (RYR.v): Some good coverage in the Colombian press last week for RYR and its
business sponsorship initiative “Royal Road Accelerator” (3 words that need no translation),
which until September 30th is offering sponsorship for business opportunities in Colombia and
Nicaragua, to the tune of a maximum of U$50,000 per project. This note in Colombia’s main
current affairs magazine Semana (7) typical of coverage (and getting quality mainstream
eyeballs in Colombia), we get the executive director of the RYR program, María Camila
Gutiérrez, explaining that prerequisites for sponsorship include the need to (translate quote),
“…generate social and environmental benefit in the zone of interest” for any project.
Argonaut Gold (AR.to): A negative week from AR.to and the market gave of a different
15

signal, too. For weeks, this desk has extolled the positive divergence in AR and the way it’s
traded against peers, but last week that
reversed:
AR was weaker than GDXJ, not just through the
big dump moment on Thursday morning. A
single week like that doesn’t make a trend, it
may simply be profit-taking after its unusually
good run over the summer.
The Copper Basket
After thirty-eight weeks of 2021, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 20.05% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.08 107.53 1177.45 10.95 80.1%
2 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 1.81 207.5 624.58 3.01 66.3%
3 Oroco Res OCO.v 1.85 186.96 441.23 2.36 27.6%
4 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.25 87.737 333.40 3.80 16.9%
5 Western Copper WRN.to 1.57 135.798 278.39 2.05 30.6%
6 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.80 181.79 223.60 1.23 53.8%
7 Excelsior Min. MIN.to 1.12 273.585 147.74 0.54 -51.8%
8 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.115 438.56 94.29 0.215 87.0%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.07 101.85 88.61 0.87 -18.7%
10 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.455 125.24 75.14 0.60 31.9%
11 Chakana Cop PERU.v 0.60 111.41 39.55 0.355 -40.8%
12 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.45 68.281 37.55 0.55 22.2%
13 Doré Copper DCMC.v 1.00 53.304 35.18 0.66 -34.0%
14 Chibougamau CBG.v 0.165 53.077 12.21 0.23 39.4%
15 US Copper USCU.v 0.105 87.53 8.32 0.095 -9.5%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 20.05%
A sizeable drop in the basket average, 60% The Copper Basket 2021, weekly evolution
down over 5% on the week despite copper 55%
50%
the metal holding its U$4/lb line and 45%
recovering well. There were just three 40%
35%
weekly winners from our 15 component
30%
stocks (PERU.v, ALDE.v, CBG.v) and just 25%
20%
one remained unchanged (MARI.to), which
15%
leaves eleven losers (so not listing them 10%
5%
all). The majority of losses were a couple of
0%
pennies or percentage points with minor
damage done to them after another volatile
week, however the basket average was
dragged down by three heavy losers,
namely US Copper (USCU.v down 24.0%), Solaris Resources (SLS.to down 16.7%) and Doré
Copper (DCMC.v down 15.5%). Of the three, Solaris made the biggest dent in the average.
Copper the metal had one doozey of a week:
16
ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91 ht62
source: IKN calcs

We’ve talked over the Evergrande Effect above, so let’s set that chapter aside and consider a
longer-term angle: Whether Evergrande’s travails truly affect the end-user demand for copper
in China is yet to be seen, that will only show if orders for copper wiring and tubing for houses
drop in its areas of regional dominance, it will take time as well. What the market is telling us is
that no, copper’s overall demand hasn’t gone anywhere and The Good Doctor Copper, PhD and
all, considers the event contained. It’s what Robin Bhar tells us in this curated comment out of
Reuters, too (8):
Evergrande agreed to settle interest payments on a domestic bond on Wednesday, while the
Chinese central bank injected cash into the banking system.
“That heartened markets for the time being and we’re running into some dip buying. Consumers
are probably running short of inventory, so these prices may prompt restocking,” said independent
consultant Robin Bhar.
“I think the consensus is that this is not China’s Lehman moment. When it comes to China,
everyone owns part of the problem and at the end of the day, it’s all part of China PLC. They’re
not going to let it disrupt the economy.”
That means China will need lots of copper. We move to the regular world inventory section,
data from Chile’s Cochilco and the SHFE, in order to find some:
 Another week of significant warehouse depletion, into an already tight market for
copper. Total tonnages for the three official world systems dropped by a large 23,982
metric tonnes (mt), Friday closing at 318,742mt.
 The main action is again at the SHFEm, where copper inventories dropped another
9,712mt. That’s another massive loss in percentage terms, Friday’s total of 44,619mt
another new record and one that made the blog (8).
 There was no arb with the LME either, as 14,625mt left its stocks with Friday’s close at
226,175mt. The two main lumps left warehouses in South Korea and Holland.
 The Comex added another small 355mt, to close the week at 47,938mt. The action is
above.
Here’s the Shanghai-only inventories chart
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
17
31'13ceD ht9 ht81 ht72 ht5tco ht41 dn22 dr3yam ht21 ht02 ht92 ht7bef ht71 ht62 ht4peS ht31 ht92 ht9 ht81 ht72 ht5von ht41 ht52 ht01 ht91 ht82 ht6naJ ht71 ht62 ht4gua ht31 dn22 202ts1ram ht01 ht91 ht72 0202ht6ced ht41 ht52 1202ht4luj ht21
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco

The new variety of chart on the same dataset, we go back to July 11th and count the 12 weeks
between then and now:
MT Cu SHFE copper inventory levels, Jul-Sep 2018/19/20/21
240000
220000
200000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000 2021
60000 2020
40000 2019
20000 2018
0
28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39
source: Cochilco data
Not cherrypicked, as the week of July 4th to 11th was when SHFE’s rapidly dwindling stocks ran
through the annual average and started flashing warning signals. Nearly three months later, the
world is onto how Chinese end users are pulling harder than ever before on warehouse
stockpiles that are supposed to be buoyant in nature and provide a supplier of last resort for
end users. In about four weeks’ time, the “last resort” will be sold out.
Now for notes on two basket stocks:
Solaris Resources (SLS.to): I am the veritable monkey with a typewriter as regard this
stock, having punted on it repeatedly as it climbed
through the dollar values and got it wrong for
around a year and a half:
We mentioned it as looking like a mature trade a
couple of weeks ago, SLS displaying one of the
classic signals when failing to respond positively to
another excellent drill result NR. Since then it’s
down two bucks and the shape of that chart, from
its August peak until now, is what they look like at
the top of the first stage of the Lassonde Curve
(to mention the darned thing twice in two weeks).
Element 29 (ECU.v): No news is good news and I like the recent roaring silence from the
company. Since the unexpected retirement of Brian Booth, announced August 4th along with
the start of the current 4,000m drill program, we’ve heard nothing from ECU.v. No NR, it’s
disappeared off the social media radar, no promotional activity and no updates from the pay-to-
play channels. The company hasn’t even updated its corporate presentation, the current version
dating to July 2021.
All these things are good. Clearly, the business end of ECU
takes precedence at the moment and the company is all
about completing its six hole campaign. As lead times into
Peruvian assay labs have improved a little in the last few
weeks, we are now entering the period in which ECU may
report its first results from the Elida exploration program.
Obviously risky and still very much a drill play, Elida is a
grassroots generated target and offers more potential than
anything C3 Metals can buy off Hochschild. Finally, the YTD
chart versus COPX (right) shows that ECU has had a good
2021 to date, without being a sector star.
18

The Producer Basket
After thirty-eight weeks of 2021, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 19.23% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out Mkt Cap (U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 59.89 805 43.37 53.87 -10.1%
2 Barrick GOLD 22.78 1778.04 32.06 18.03 -20.9%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 70.51 244.187 12.33 50.51 -28.4%
4 Kirkland Lake KL 41.27 267.056 11.37 42.57 3.1%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 7.34 1261.07 6.66 5.28 -28.1%
6 Endeavour Min EDV.to 29.62 252.568 6.20 29.44 -0.6%
7 Pan American PAAS 34.71 210.262 4.93 23.44 -32.5%
8 B2Gold BTG 5.60 1051.697 3.63 3.45 -38.4%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 8.75 392.739 2.80 7.13 -18.5%
10 Pretium Res PVG 11.48 187.833 1.77 9.40 -18.1%
Prices in U$ except EDV.to (share price in CAD$ and mkt cap in approx USD) Port. avg -19.23%
Compared to our Stocks to Follow list that managed to find seven winners among the smallfry,
the bigcap precious metals producers all followed the tide last week. All except for one,
however, the telling 3.25% week-over-week rise in Kirkland Lake (KL) another signal that
“something is up”. The other nine were all losers, however, with the now-standard top-down
drops as GDX rules the show and losses that resemble one another. Biggest loser was B2Gold
(BTG down 5.5%), a stock I fully regret including in the list this year, The Clive under-performs.
With KL one tenth of the basket weighting, we managed to do better than the GDX benchmark
last week and the gap is down to 1.63%. It’s still very much a case of being “the least worst”,
rather than anything positive but, with a quarter and a week to go, we’re back in with a chance
of beating the GDX in 2021.
The 2021 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and 20%
comparative to GDX control
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
Kirkland Lake (KL): IKN636 dated August 1st, we applauded KL’s 2q21 financials and made
sure the message was clear next weekend, in IKN637 dated August 8th. That was a reminder of
the KL numbers and finished “There’s a lot to like
about KL”. Since then it’s been the best
performing bigcap by a distance, so please see
today’s intro for the main information on this
stock as the reasons become apparent. Here
we’re running some charts, and a few thoughts
arising as the KL out-performance has been
going on for weeks, but here we check the near-
term and how KL traded higher in an almost
stubborn way over the last ten days:
Set against GDX, the positive divergence screams
19
ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91 ht62
The 2021 Producer Basket: Percentage difference between
GDX benchmark and basket (negative = IKN basket ahead)
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
basket
gdx control 0.0%
source: Google, IKN Calcs ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91 ht62
source: IKN calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq/TSX data

at us. Particularly notable was last Thursday’s trading, with the bid supported all day while all
around sold off. That chart pattern makes a lot more sense with today’s information in place.
Newcrest (NCM) and Barrick (GOLD): Now consider the two other protagonists to date,
with Barrick and Newcrest following the GDX tightly.
That chart alone provides little clarity, but the next one helps:
Agnico (AEM) and Newmont (NEM): So here are the lines for market leader Newmont
(NEM) and Agnico (AEM), compared to benchmark GDX over the last ten days to show how
these two have performed versus the average:
A market expecting a deal would place shorts on the aggressor as quickly as placing longs on
the target, the above says there’s less market pressure on NEM than AEM, NCM.ax or GOLD,
signalling it less likely to be in the running for the Big Deal. In fact Agnico also makes a lot of
sense as a suitor to KL and while on this, I’m adding a couple of extra words after fielding some
mails on the blog post publication this evening (Sunday 11pm). Regarding NCM as lead, I’m
aware that my intel, though solid, represents a snapshot in time during an M&A processes.
Agnico would be a good fit, it’s also a company that “needs a deal” and ultimately, money talks
(and BS walks) so at any given moment, a new offer can change everything. Bottom line:
Putting Newcrest in the frame does not close the deal, if they eventually get beaten to the deal
by Agnico or any other, you won’t find me weeping about it.
Bottom line: Newcrest fits logically, this desk understands NCM is leading the process, the
charts point show KL as a target and NCM’s price chart acting in the way a suitor for the charms
of KL is supposed to act. We don’t discard the others, however.
The Tiny Dogs
After thirty-eight weeks of 2021, the Tiny Dogs show a loss of 1.04% to level stakes:
20

company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Antler Gold ANTL.v 0.205 61.348 7.98 0.13 -36.6%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.045 163.975 7.38 0.045 0.0%
Constantine Met CEM.v 0.17 45.4 16.34 0.36 111.8%
Contact Gold C.v 0.115 240.757 14.45 0.06 -47.8%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.22 40 4.20 0.105 -52.3%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.045 230.79 18.46 0.08 77.8%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.240 106.241 9.56 0.09 -62.5%
QC Copper QCCU.v 0.315 105 30.45 0.29 -7.9%
Red Pine Expl RPX.v 0.400 95.806 51.74 0.54 35.0%
Warrior Gold WAR.v 0.090 91.818 5.97 0.065 -27.8%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg -1.04%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The basket average gained a point last week, though espite the best efforts of QC Copper it still
couldn’t manage to break back into the green.
There were three winners (BAY.v, QCCU.v,
20% Tiny Dogs, 2021 weekly tracker
RPX.v) and three UNCH stocks (ANTL.v, C.v,
16%
WAR.v) so four companies dragged the average
12%
back down (CEM.v, GDP.v, NTU.v, PRG.v)
8%
including biggest losers Manitou (MTU.v down
4%
12.5%), Constantine (CEM.v down 11.1%) and
0%
Precipitate Gold (PRG.v down 11.1%). Meanwhile
-4%
in the win column, the half cent on Aston Bay
-8%
(BAY.v up 12.5%) accompanied the big winner
-12%
and star of the IKN644 edition, QC Copper &
Gold (QCCU.v up 61.1%).
Warrior Gold (WAR.v): The news that WAR
has hired exploration tech company GoldSpot (SPOT.v) to run its proprietary technology on its
properties has the look of a Hail Mary to me. WAR has found grade, it hasn’t found the vein
widths required to make a discovery potentially economic, so if this tech manages to find the
right spots, then good. It won’t remove the skinny vein assays we’ve had so far (9).
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It is possible that in the
future I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, but at the moment both my opinion and my wallet are strictly
neutral.
21
ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91 ht62
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

Regional politics
Argentina getting serious about mining
The main Chamber of Commerce for mining in Argentina is the CAEM (Cámara Argentina de
Empresarios Mineros (CAEM) and last week (10) they elected a new president, Señor Franco
Mignacco of Exar (lithium). He’s made a good impression, with government-pleasing statements
such as “Argentina is well-positioned to receive investment for large-scale projects in the years
ahead, even more when one considers that neighbouring countries such as Chile and Peru have
some problems with political developments.”
However, CAEM last week also got vociferous against the latest measures from the Argentina
national government designed to improve the mining sector, specifically focusing in on a
subject we identified at the start of the Alberto Fernandez government; that of currency
controls. I won’t bore you with the details (and I just scrubbed a paragraph because it was
becoming unreadable), but the bottom line is that Argentina recently gave mining companies an
exemption on controls to 20% of their export dollars, as long as that cash went into
investment/capex etc.
Which is not enough, says the CAEM, with Salta’s head (and president of First Quantum and
Taca Taca’s Argentina subsidiary) explaining (11) that isn’t enough to guarantee the type of FDI
dollars required for a large project. The sector needs a larger exemption, around 40% and
that’s not likely to happen soon. Meanwhile, the political side of marketing Argentina cotinues in
the hands of Secretary of Mining Alberto Hensel who nailed his colours to the mast last week
during the “San Juan Tierra Minera” conference (12). No shock, his presentation was very pro-
San Juan, but we got another indication of his office’s strategy and here’s an example quote:
“Even though it’s up to us to work in complicated situations, I believe that Argentina, in
the way it happened to us once here in San Juan, is slowly but surely leaving behind
the “Mining Yes / Mining No” dichotomy.”
In other words, he calls on San Juan to continue to lead by example. And, as those examples
include Josemaria, Filo de Sol, Lama, Veladero, Altar and others, they have plenty of cloth to
cut in the most pro-mining of provinces without looking further afield. Alberto Hensel’s national
ministerial mining team also expanded last week, with the appointment of a new vice-secretary
of mining, one Jorge Vega. The newcomer has all suitable qualifications (academaic and in-
field), but the interesting part is that the current under-secretary, Laura Ropolo, is moving to
head up the new national mining plan, PEDMA Plan Estratégico para el Desarrollo Minero
Argentino (PEDMA) (13). That is the sound of the Alberto Fernandez government taking mining
seriously.
Market Watching
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse) and an internal audit
Further to the news that, due to the insistence of shareholders, Minera IRL will now hold an
internal audit, here’s a mail written to shareholder and CS activist and reader “P” by Minera IRL
Chair Gerardo Pérez, yesterday morning:
From: Gerardo Perez <gerardo.perez@irl.com.pe>
Date: September 25, 2021 at 9:58:26 AM EDT
To: P>
Cc: Pedro Valdez <pedro.valdez@irl.com.pe>
Subject: RE: Minera IRL
Dear (….)
I am answering this email on behalf of the Board of Directors and can confirm to you that the
committee will be comprised of board members including our independent director Michael
Iannacone, a certified accountant, Jesus Lema who is a corporate lawyer with over 25 years of
experience and myself.
22

As I explained in my earlier email it will only be if there is evidence that supports allegations that
any further action will be taken, and this includes any necessity to investigate Minera IRL
subsidiaries.
As a requirement of any public company and to ensure the transparency of all our activities, the
Company, including subsidiaries are audited. Peruvian companies are required to submit their
electronic records (Journal entries and General Ledger) to SUNAT the Peruvian tax authority for
auditing purposes every three months and any changes to records would be easily detected and
identified.
Minera IRL S.A. and Minera Kuri Kullu S.A. use the ERP software SAP which does not allow
transactions or records to be deleted, a transaction can be reversed but the history of all
operating data is retained. These controls are in place to ensure the integrity of our financial
information.
Please do not hesitate to be in contact if you have any further questions.
Best regards,
Gerardo Perez
Executive Chairman
Notes on the above:
 Messrs. Lema and Perez and both personal friends of Diego Benavides. In addition,
they would be connected to any financial wrongdoings discovered at the company, at
least due to their omissions and lack of governance. How this committee is considered
in any way at arms length or independent to the complaints, which include the type of
cronyism once again on display in the make-up of this very committee, is beyond me.
 This is a notable phrase: “…it will only be if there is evidence that supports allegations
that any further action will be taken, and this includes any necessity to investigate
Minera IRL subsidiaries.” That legal step-work means that evidence is not put in front of
the faces of these people they will do nothing, i.e. they refuse to investigate mere
verbal allegations. In other words, it’s in the best interest of the Chairman of this
committee not to lift a finger.
 However, the main source of complaint against Diego Benavides is so obvious, even
this biased committee won’t be able to ignore the evidence. Therefore, I ask all CS
members to write into this newly-formed committee, requiring them to make a check of
all references an bona fides on the résumés and CVs of Susan Gabbie, Pedro Valdez
and Steve Ngatai. On doing so, they will undoubtedly discover these people are not fit
for their current executive roles. It would then remain for committee to ask CEO
Benavides as to why he hired his personal friends in the first place…
The advent of this internal audit is welcome, however we need to be clear about the chances of
full transparency coming from this inquiry are between slim and none. The litmus test is the
hiring of Gabbie, Ngatai and Valdez despite a patent lack of know-how and obvious, quid-pro-
quo benefits for both sides; they get high paying jobs, he gets a pretend C-suite to fake his way
through the AGM. If we get them to focus on the most obvious wrongdoing and this committee
still fails to see anything, the message will be clear.
Conclusion
IKN644 is done, we end with bullet points:
 Perhaps the most important part of the Kirkland Lake (KL) news is that there’s a deal
happening, our sector is desperate for some momentum. And yes, Bristow is right
23

about there being too few assets and too many managers.
 The best laid plans of mice and men will often go agly. This Sunday’s plans were upset
by the time taken to gather intel on KL, which is why the last two sections are a little
threadbare. As there’s nothing too time-sensitive and the efforts were for a good cause,
they can wait until next week.
 QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v) returned an outstanding MRE, a real game-changer for the
company. We add more, because we like sponsoring winners.
 Minera IRL has decided to run an internal audit, something they would not have done
voluntarily. Thank you all, we are beginning to see the progress required to add value
to its shares.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://iknnews.com/an-ikn-exclusive-kirkland-lake-kl-is-for-sale-and-about-to-sell/
(2) https://s23.q4cdn.com/685814098/files/doc_news/2021/09/pr-
DetourMineralResourceEstimatesSeptember22021FINALREV2.pdf
(3) https://www.goldforumamericas.com/
(4) https://iknnews.com/ikn644-features-qc-copper-gold-qccu-v/
(5) https://qccopper.com/news/qc-copper-announces-pit-constrained-mineral-resource-estimate-for-the-opemiska-
deposit-81.7m-tonnes-0.88-cueq-of-m-i-mineral/
(6) https://qccopper.com/site/assets/files/2670/3qc_copper_investor_presentation_2021_09_19.pdf
(7) https://www.semana.com/mejor-colombia/articulo/aceleradora-de-oportunidades-royal-road-minerals-impulsa-ideas-
innovadoras-de-emprendedores-en-colombia-y-nicaragua/202100/
(8) https://www.reuters.com/article/global-metals-idUSL1N2QO0MW
(9) https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210921005400/en/Warrior-Gold-Engages-GoldSpot-Discoveries-for-a-
Multi-Parameter-Airborne-Survey
(10) https://eleconomista.com.ar/2021-09-mignacco-caem-argentina-tiene-una-posibilidad-enorme/
(11) https://www.eltribuno.com/salta/nota/2021-9-25-22-19-0-desilusion-en-el-sector-minero-deja-en-suspenso-las-
inversiones
(12) https://www.argentina.gob.ar/noticias/hensel-participo-del-seminario-internacional-san-juan-tierra-minera
(13)
https://panorama-minero.com/sin-categoria/secretaria-de-mineria-de-la-nacion-jorge-vera-reemplaza-a-laura-
ropolo/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=secretaria-de-mineria-de-la-nacion-jorge-vera-reemplaza-
a-laura-ropolo
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
24

Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
25

Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
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Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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