6) The IKN Weekly, issue 643 — Sep 20, 2021
The IKN Weekly
Week 643, September 19th 2021
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In Today’s Edition, FOMC on deck, Five years of gold and silver in
a chart, an X-axis rant, The GLD charts and gold as a safe haven.
Fundamental Analysis: Buying Altiplano Metals (APN.v).
Stocks to Follow: Copper Mountain (CMMC.to), Altiplano Metals (APN.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), QC
Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), Argonaut Gold (AR.to), Excelsior Mining (MIN.to), Aurelius (AUL.v),
Aldebaran (ALDE.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, C3 Metals (CCCM.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Kirkland Lake (KL), Alamos Gold (AGI), Pretium Resources (PVG).
Tiny Dogs: Overview, Constantine (CEM.v).
Regional Politics: Pedro Castillo at CELAC.
Market Watching: Tracking the Buy Peru call, Harte Gold (HRT.to): An eye on the side bet,
Another thought on New Gold (NGD), Minera IRL concerned shareholders update.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
“
Trade heads-up
To make sure there’s no doubts, here at the top of the edition are the two trades I plan for the
week ahead:
Buying Altiplano Metals (APN.v)
Adding to Copper Mountain (CMMC.to)
Copper is the place to be in 4q21, details below.
In Today’s Copper Edition
We are full Dr. Copper in this edition, as this desk urges its esteemed readership to get
long on the red metals. Last week we stated, “Own Copper Stocks”, but actions speak
louder than words, so today’s main Fundies section features the tremendous value
offered by Altiplano Metals (APN.v), a small company with growth plans now moving
into gear. With the share price hit by copper weakness and temporary political noise
out of Chile, the window of opportunity for deeply discounted shares is open.
More copper trading, as we also take the opportunity to add to Copper Mountain
(CMMC.to) at the current price deck, positioning for a bullish Q4 in copper. Also, please
see this weekend’s Copper Basket section for the main reason why we should all be
bullish on its prospects: China is running out.
Away from the red metal, gold and particularly silver had a hard time of it last week as
the market priced in Fed taper talk. Today’s intro mentions silver for the first time in a
long time, as it sits at a likely inflection point. No lower, please.
1
A final one on Peru politics this week, as it needs underscoring that the likelihood of a
leftist revolution is fading fast. With the dust settling and the new executive
government showing no stomach for an ideological fight, the country will soon be back
in favour among investors. President Castillo isn’t going to let the Red in the back door
and said as much at CELAC, last week. Regional politics.
FOMC on deck
This week’s main macro event is the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting, with the
communiqué lunchtime Wednesday and rather than pretend expertise, here’s Goldman Sachs
with their call on what to expect (1):
The FOMC is likely to provide the promised “advance notice” that tapering is coming at
its September meeting, paving the way to announce the start of tapering at its
November meeting. Specifically, we expect the September FOMC statement to say
something along the lines of, “The Committee expects to begin reducing the pace of its
asset purchases relatively soon, provided that the economy evolves broadly as
anticipated.”
If it goes like that, theory goes that confidence in the USD will improve, though Bill McBride and
his peers think its effects were baked in last week. However, after the hit we saw in gold, it’s
fair to assume that if Fed backs off from indicating the taper the rebound will be fast and
furious and Denver Gold Show saw several speakers openly opposing the GS position and
saying the Fed will not taper this year (or ever again).
Though hardly easy for gold and others, last week’s metals price action was headlined by silver
and the way it broke South. The result was a significant move in the Gold/Silver ratio, which got
as low as 62X earlier this year:
What the gold/silver ratio is telling us today reminds this desk of the message carried by a
previous treatise on silver a year ago. That was the tongue-in-cheek “Red Dog Stick” theory on
silver, which appeared in IKN592 September and found its way back to the blog last week (via
a reader prompt (2)). Facetious perhaps, but the piece makes a point and the final paragraph
wrapped it up:
The bottom line: Red Dog Stick can be anything. It can be charting or historic trading
ratios or musings on the contents of the Earth’s crust. It can even be the secret plans
of Deep State to monetize silver and turn it into the accepted coinage for the next
generation currency, coming to you soon from Davos. My point is quieter and isn’t
touted as much by those who want you to spend money on things they like (a.k.a.
analysts): The price of silver goes down in a recession.
That was a year ago, since then we’ve seen silver try to flourish and fail at least a couple of
2
times, all on the back of The USA, it’s highly expansive Covid-19 monetary policy and the
ensuing economic recovery. In other words, calling silver lower due to recession in IKN592 was
wrong, but recent events are suggesting that fail wasn’t due to the logic, but timing. The above
chart shows the point of silver’s rocket move in September (for the record, the “SLV” label is at
the point my bear call on silver collapsed). We’re now back at the price point as last year, the
first time silver has revisited U$23/oz this year.
A X-axis rant
A drive-by rant about the cherry-picking of X-axis timelines and limits. Every hard money
advocate knows how those that would mock us all as rabid goldbugs love to choose a specific
time span, be it five or 10 or 20 years, or pre/post dotcom bust etc in order to prove that gold
is a bad investment. Cherry-picking of timelines is not limited to gold bears, writers highlighting
stocks are also guilty and while nobody who’s ever put a chart in front of a wider audience (e.g.
me) can claim complete and permanent objectivity, there are limits to draw.
The key is to be representative for the subject at hand, or perhaps one can stretch things and
stray to the advantageous, but even that would be a world of difference from outright
deceptive choices seen with some frequency these days.
However, no bad actors get named today, instead the above chart for gold and silver is the
example: before selecting that visual, I checked other reasonable lapses from two to ten years.
While all showed the same pattern, particularly the play between GLD and SLV on the right, I
eventually went for the five year lapse because it clearly shows silver dropping away from the
GLD line. It’s representative of the situation today, while those of you who disagree with the
IKN Weekly working theory on gold* might accuse me of picking one chart over another for a
small visual advantage, you’d be pressed to find something deceptive going on.
* ”We will revolve around U$1,800/oz gold while the Fed uses MMT.” Correct since Biden got in
and zero reason to change the call on last week’s mild chop.
The GLD charts and gold as a safe haven
Silver is a trade, not an asset class like its bigger brother. Any lower and silver may find itself
racing back to a 100X ratio with gold, as the
GLD gold holdings, 2020 to date (metric tonnes)
monetary metal is now showing resilience and
1400
its safe haven attributes. Or regular GLD 1350
1300
tracker charts do the job, with inventories 1250
going no lower and sticking at the 1,000 metric 1200
1150
tonne level. 1100
1050
1000
The result is the ratio chart (near-term below 950
900
left, long-term below right) once again 850
signalling a reversal of fortunes for gold, 800
bouncing off the 6X line. That signal didn’t
follow through in June this year, however, and
the summer Doldrums took over.
3
02/1/1 02/2/1 02/3/1 02/4/1 02/5/1 02/6/1 02/7/1 02/8/1 02/9/1 02/01/1 02/11/1 02/21/1 12/1/1 12/2/1 12/3/1 12/4/1 12/5/1 12/6/1 12/7/1 12/8/1 12/9/1
mt
source: SPDR GLD data
7.60 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2021 to date
7.40
7.20
7.00
6.80
6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80
5.60
2/1/0202 1/2/0202 2/3/0202 1/4/0202 1/5/0202 13/5/0202 03/6/0202 03/7/0202 92/8/0202 82/9/0202 82/01/0202 72/11/0202 72/21/0202 62/1/1202 52/2/1202 72/3/1202 62/4/1202 62/5/1202 52/6/1202 52/7/1202 42/8/1202
8.20 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2016 to date
8.00
7.80
7.60
7.40
7.20
7.00
6.80
6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs 5.80
5.60
61/4/1 61/61/3 61/62/5 61/8/8 61/81/01 61/92/21 71/41/3 71/42/5 71/4/8 71/61/01 71/72/21 81/21/3 81/22/5 81/2/8 81/21/01 81/42/21 91/8/3 91/02/5 91/13/7 91/01/01 91/02/21 02/5/3 02/51/5 02/82/7 02/7/01 02/71/21 12/3/3 12/11/5 12/22/7
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
What the longer-term chart tells us, however, is that gold’s ratio will rebound at some point and
with ownership sentiment among Wall St in the dumpster, there is fuel for momentum in the
metal. Enough introduction with silver and gold musings, We move to the main fundies section
and some real work on the industrial metal set to move higher, copper.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Today we look at Altiplano Metals (APN.v), with a view to buying the stock next week.
Altiplano Metals (Canada: APN.v) is small, exploration-stage mining company with limited, non-
commercial production at one asset and plans to move others into production. Most of its
projects are located in Chile, with one in Nicaragua. Current share structure is as follows:
Shares out: 113.37m
Options: 9.661m
Warrants: 16.144m
Fully diluted shares: 139.172m
Current share price: C$0.30
Market Cap: C$34.01m
Approx cash per S/O: C$0.03
All prices are in US Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.80=CAD$1
Preamble: The object of today’s main event is to convince you of a few things:
Altiplano Metals (APN.v) is a tightly-run and well-managed junior mining company
It has a suite of interesting projects and is cashed up for near-term development
Thanks to the imminent start of its El Peñon processing facility, APN is about to
transform financially, but the market has largely ignored its progress.
As a result, this weekend APN is at an excellent entry price and I am a buyer of the
stock in the week ahead
A good company: We begin with the first point, by considering first the management team and
then the financials overview of APN, usual suspect charts at the ready. Altiplano Metals (APN.v)
is a relatively straightforward story, one that runs under the radar of most market participants
due to a (deliberately) low corporate profile. Part of the Metals Group of companies, until
recently Discovery Group, its main man is APN Chairman, successful geologist and junior mining
executive John Williamson who these days doesn’t dilute his efforts. Instead, he uses the
“group” style of sister companies under his control and has executive and/or control positions in
several other companies (the biog here (3) will suitably impress). Along with Williamson APN
gets several of the team who work in other Metals Group companies and notably, they come
with skin in the game. This from the latest Information Circular, which may slightly
underestimate their current holdings:
All good to see at the director’s level. The President/CEO, Alastair McIntyre, isn’t on the board
but has steered the company well to date. He comes from the financial side of mining, has
decades of deep corporate experience and a CV that stacked with the right roles at the right
places. Notably, he’s also on the board of Vox Royalty (VOX.v), the small royaltyco that caught
my eye at Beaver Creek as one of the smartest strategies on display that week. He currently
4
owns 872,650 shares of APN, a bunch of incentive options and that number is okay I suppose,
but should be higher. As seen in the table above
and the chart right, that 113.368m shares out has
recently climbed after a couple of required
financings. Also, the low exercise prices on the
derivates (40c is max) means we should expect
the fully paid-up share count to dilute toward 140m shares through 2022 (this chart sketches
2q22, it’s more likely end year). That’s one thing,
but C$7m in gross proceeds to treasury as the
warrants and options become whole is serious
money for a company this size.
I would have no problem at 140m S/O.
Financials overview: From the share count chart we segue into our balance sheet charts in
order to demonstrate APN’s financial health. Assets show incremental gains as new projects are
added and subsequently developed, normal style.
APN.v: Assets, per qtr
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
5
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2
APN.v: Shares Out
$m
fixed
other current
cash
source: company filings
Liabilities are tiny and need no more than a couple
of lines of script. There’s a long-term promissory
note with no due date as the only item of minor
note, that’s obviously friendly internal debt and isn’t
likely to disappear until the company is financially
very comfortable. Zero worries.
We move back to assets and note the newly-
padded cash position (below left, separated out)
and resulting strong working capital position (below
right):
470.66 470.66 488.76 488.76 488.76 712.67 762.67 762.67
593.29 16.501 73.311 411 021 031 041
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2
source: company filings/IKN ests
serahs
fo snoillim
APN.v: Liabilities, per qtr
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs
5 APN.v: Working Capital per qtr
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2
source company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
APN.v: Cash treasury per qtr
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
Two P+L charts to show the simple nature of its books:
APN.v: Expenses breakdown
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-0.1
6
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2
C$m
other exp
Prof fees
G&A
Mgmt fees
source: company filings
With a single exceptional quarter, the background burn of around C$200k per month in the first
six months of this year is testament to a tightly-run company that’s been ticking over, waiting
for the time to expand operations. With the advent of the two new permits, particularly the one
last week, we now get a more active APN
moving to complete on its plans to have
APN.v: Quarterly net loss
multiple revenue generating assets by the 1 0.953
end of the year. As a result, its operating 0.9
and net results charts are typical of the 0.8
small junior, with minor losses booked per 0.7 0.583
0.6
quarter. I’ll sample just one of these, the 0.5 0.393
bottom line net losses (right) and be done. 0.4 0.257 0.276 0.294
0.3
0.161
0.2 0.082 0.108 0.108
A limited selection of charts, but enough for
0.1
our bottom line on APN financials; this 0
company is run in exemplary fashion and
has brought itself to a key development
phase fully cashed up and, no liabilities of
note. The corporate structure sips cash and while the share count has moved up recently, as
long as it tops out at out expected 139m while the company delivers on its plans, there’s no
issue. However, this isn’t the last time we mention APN financials today, because the key to the
trade is what the company has been doing at its flagship Farellon mine in Chile. Before that,
let’s consider APN’s suite of assets:
Company projects: The corporate strategy at
APN is to grow by (and let’s quote the company
bumph) “acquiring and developing a portfolio of
near term, cash-flowing assets and exploration
projects of significant scale in copper, gold and
silver.” They operate mostly in Chile and around
the La Serena region of the country. North of
Santiago. The visual (right) is from the latest
corporate presentation, which I won’t sample
too much and anyone interested in this trade
should get their own copy (found here (4)). Not
shown on this map, APN also comes with an
exploration-stage project in Nicaragua, Central
America. In rough order of importance, APN
currently owns the following:
Farellon, its producing copper/gold mine. It’s the flagship and the reason to buy today,
see below for more.
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2
$m
source: company filings
The Rosario/Laura expansion project, both in close proximity to its Farellon workings
(les than 1km). Though the company separates them from Farellon, they are better
understood as the expansion projects of the same Farellon operation. We expect these
assets to develop and add feed tonnes to APN’s new mill in the near future.
The Maria Luisa expansion project, located approximately 130km North of the
company’s Farellon complex in the North of the same region. Here APN is looking to
repeat its development of Farellon, having secured a similar, high-grading copper/gold
structure. The permit news announced this week means APN has its next project once
Farellon is running, though we need to take into account the U$2m in option payments
due on the asset before it becomes wholly owned. For the mid-term, once Farellon
provides proof of concept.
The Pastillas exploration-stage project in Chile, recently acquired and announced on
August 19th (5) the acquisition of the Pastillas project, a large concession that includes a
past-producing gold mine and plenty early-stage exploration upside. It won’t be their
frontline projects, but it shows a company considering a longer-term pipeline of
opportunities as well as executing on their corporate mandate. Since the Pastillas
acquisition, APN confirmed they were still looking to add more projects to the company,
including the potential for another producing asset before the end of 2021. As the
company has repeated that message via several channels we should take it seriously
and any eventual solid news would likely be its own price catalyst.
The San Pedro exploration-stage project in Nicaragua. This is something of an anomaly
in the suite of assets and while APN is always eager to talk up its prospects, the real
reason to like this company is its Chilean assets and operations. We don’t assign any
value to San Pedro at this point, one day there’s potential value there as a spin-out or
non-core sale to others.
Focus on Farellon: While we are certainly interested in the Maria Luisa development project
some 100 miles North, as well as the newly acquired Pastillas in Chile and the Nicaraguan arm
too, the reason to like APN is Farellon, its flagship asset currently producing at a reduced scale.
From now we focus our efforts here and helpfully, APN last month published a short YouTube
video explainer of the Farellon mine and deposit (6) incorporating its immediate growth plans (a
sum total of 170 views since its publication, including me three times). In it you’ll learn that,
while only producing at a reduced rate until now, Farellon has generated positive cash flow for
the company every quarter since 2018 by selling its mined material to Chile’s State mining firm,
Enami, at its toll milling facility. Those non-commercial production sales have contributed to
development so far, but all is about to change as starting 2022, the mine gets its own
processing facility to sell not only copper concentrate, but eventually an iron conc which could
add another third to top line revenues.
Farellon is the reason for our interest and today’s report, an importance underscored by its
place in APN’s longer-term strategy of project scalability. If APN gets Farellon right, they are in
a zone of low-hanging fruit (map above) to repeat the same winning formula with their own
Maria Luisa project to the North, as well as other potential in the region. And as long as we
assume copper at a price that allows APN.v to net at least U$3.50/lb from its concentrate sales,
Farellon will be throwing off the free cash flow to organically develop two or three of these
small operations at once.
To date and as noted above, APN has been in small-scale production at Farellon. This chart
covers a few bases, as it points us toward the type of production increase we expect in 2022
and beyond, but it also shows recent results:
7
APN: Farellon tonnages mined, sold, plus forecast into 2022/23
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
8
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1 *** rtq
32YF
source: company filings, IKN ests
retrauq/sennot
cirtem
mined tonnes
sold/processed tonnes
To date, APN has slowly increased tonnes mined towards it nameplate objective of 5,000
tonnes per month. Indeed and not shown above, the latest data from the company shows the
last two months mining at 4,000 tonnes, a considerable improvement. As 2011 becomes 2022
we expect that to move to 5,000 tonnes and stay there, as from 2022 APN gets its own
processing facility
El Peñon transforms the mine and the company: On September 1st the company
announced (7) the final permit award NR for its El Peñon processing facility, located 15km from
the Farellon mine and built to process its feed at a rate of 5,000 tonnes per day. The El Peñon
build out is now permitted, fully funded and won’t take long before it’s running, the company
expects to be producing concentrate by the end of 2021. It’s big news for APN and the share
price reacted for a while, but events outside of its control have dampened investor appetite
again.
In order to get a handle on the magnitude of this next growth step, let’s first consider what it
has been producing to date. In effect non-commercial production, APN has so far mined and
sold its mineral development material to the Enami toll mill, 150km South, and received cash
payment. It’s small stuff to date, so get a handle on that cash from Farellon we use one of the
company’s own presentation charts, ripped from its PDF:
A useful chart that packs in a lot of information, we see that a recent typical quarterly top line
from Farellon has been around the U$500k
mark, with costs kept low and the resulting
free cash flow from operations. A second
APN chart (right) shows tonnages mined per
quarter, along with a guide to average head
grade. That has dropped steadily, but is
anticipated to begin climbing again toward
the 1.72% historical average.
Summing up so far, we have a small mining operation sending between 3,000 and 4,000 tonnes
per month to a local toll miller, who pays cash. This stage of APN’s growth story has provided
useful cash and has covered C$3.5m of the company’s recent C$4.8m in capex and investment
works, but when El Peñon switches on it comes with several major benefits:
On production, APN will now be able (and willing) to move up to the planned 5,000
tonnes per month run rate
On revenues, the company is no longer selling mined ore to a toll miller and getting
short shift per pound of copper.
On costs, APM literature claims El Peñon will reduce processing costs by 33% and
trucking costs by 75%.
Then comes immediate extra revenue, as once up and running APN will a separate iron
ore recovery circuit (magnetized system), adding a second saleable conc to the mix.
Details on those. This table shows what we can expect from APN at Farellon when El Peñon
comes online:
APN: Avg received U$/lb Cu
period U$ revs Cu Lbs sold Avg/lb
1q20 0.321 188670 1.70
2q20 0.478 310255 1.54
3q20 0.827 460385 1.80
4q20 0.579 322130 1.80
1q21 0.544 277520 1.96
2q21 0.599 220660 2.71
****** ***** ***** *****
1q22est 1.176 350000 3.36
1q23est* 1.575 450000 3.50
*1q23 in CuEq source: APN data, IKN ests
The first section shows the sales results from the last six quarters, as well as the quantity of
copper sold (in mineral form). This gives us an average received price per Lb Cu and it’s clear
APN has been leaving plenty on the table. Cut to the second section and our model quarters,
“first 1q22est” that assumes APN isn’t at 5k tpm yet, but will be soon. As for received price, we
understand that any middleman will take its slice and base our U$3.36/lb guesstimate on 20%
TC/RC. Even so, a received copper price in the mid $3s is still an improvement on selling to a
toll miller and as a result, top line revenues move higher. They continue higher when the
mooted iron ore circuit comes online, which we model in “1q23est” above
The above table comes from the GAAP compliant statement of cash flows and the numbers are
slightly different to those announced as monthly top line revenue in APN’s non-compliant
material, but they are close enough. Also, we convert from USD (table above) to CAD (chart
below) at the house standard 1.2X:
APN: Exploration recoveries (i.e Farellon revenues proxy), per qtr
9
04.0
36.0 18.0 88.0 55.0 55.0 56.0 47.0
14.1
98.1
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1 *** rtq
32YF
C$m
source: company filings, IKN ests
Once the processing plant comes online in 1q22, the difference to top line revenues will be
enormous. As for mining costs, using the company’ own guidance of…
Mining Cost: U$26/tonne
Transport: U$5/tonne
Processing: U$17/tonne
…once El Peñon is operational, the model 5,000 tonne month would indicate operating costs of
U$240,000m, no more than 20% higher than the current mine site operational cost. Even
before the iron circuit is commissioned and switched on, APN at El Peñon will have gone from a
junior slowly fracturing cash to one collecting treasury. Assuming a reasonable ramp into
production for this small and technologically simple plant, APN will have at least $1m in free
cash flow per quarter, enough to go to its next mine and repeat the growth process.
Discussion and conclusion
We’ve done plenty of numbers in this note, so to wrap up we’ll move to price charts instead,
starting with this ten-day variety, which takes in the decline from the price bump caused by the
El Peñon permit award
It also takes in last week’s action, including the Thursday news from APN on its Maria Luisa
permit award (8):
As the rant in the intro points out, timing is a thing and APN, in its recent NRs at least, has
suffered from unlucky timing. So far in 2021 it has executed largely according to plan and as
the longer-term chart (below) shows, there was plenty of optimism being bought into the stock
at the start of 2021. Despite delivering, APN has seen its share price hit by the larger negatives
of the headwinds in copper prices, Chile’s perceived deterioration in political risk and the
general malaise we’ve all suffered though in the mining sector this year (if not in all held stocks,
at least some). We noted this last week in our main Regional Politics rant and it doesn’t only
apply to Rio2 Ltd; APN and other Chilean exposed stocks have been unjustly hit by the incorrect
perception in Chile and effects show up in the longer-term charts:
10
APN had its discovery rush-up, then went through the classic fallow period we see on the
Lassonde curve pattern for mining companies, before the last year saw it continue the classic
curve by improving into its development and growth period. All was going according to plan
until very recently, the sentiment change is clear and while APN has tried to re-gain
momentum, even the last few weeks of development news on several fronts has failed to move
the stock. A serious mining company run the right way, APN has moved expeditiously to obtain
the permits required, all inside the (still working and efficient) Chilean system. The NR on
September 1st announcing full permits for El Peñon processing facility has this from CEO Alastair
McIntyre: “…goal is to produce the first concentrate at El Peñón in 2021 and I will be pleased to
provide regular updates on this progress.” Once again, it’s less important they makes or miss
the showcase date by a week or three, more important that its fully budgeted and financed
facility gets turned on for 2022. The resulting product, a concentrate that APN sells to market,
with later a second credit conc from iron ore, compares to the current situation of toll milling
with Chilean State run Enami and the numbers above speak for themselves.
The combined plan at El Peñon/Farellon turns APN into a cash flow positive, organic growth
story as from now, its first stage of toll-funded growth now ending. At this weekend’s C$0.30,
Altiplano Metals (APN,v) is a C$34m market cap company and even if we assume all warrants
and options become whole, that still doesn’t move above C$42m. Even if APN didn’t enjoy a
healthy treasury and the advantages of operating in South America’s best mining jurisdiction, its
market cap would justified on its exploration-stage assets alone. Instead, APN now has a small
but significant mining operation that, given the modest expansion as from next quarter, will
earn the company at least $1m per quarter. That’s all the cash it will need for its next project,
be it the permitted Maria Luisa or some other, as APN has stated plans to repeat its Farellon
model in the region.
A new entrant to APN today is getting unbeatable value, thanks to combined factors that won’t
last very long. Nervousness in the mining space and in copper speculation, plus the
misunderstood backdrop of Chilean political risk, have seen the share price sell off at the exact
time APN brought its company-changing news to market. Unlucky for them and present holders
perhaps, but a chance too good to miss for those on the outside. The conjunction of headwinds
on APN will not last, not even to the moment El Peñon is switched on and once the world
understands Chile isn’t about to go Commie its risk premium will go back to normal. At that
point, expect people to pay double the price for these shares, as even a market cap that
doubles to around U$70m Fully Diluted will look cheap compared to the near-term organic
growth. I am a buyer of Altiplano Metals (APN.v) in the days ahead and as from next weekend,
the company will be one of our main Stocks to Follow. There’s no formal price target at this
time, but frankly I’d be disappointed if this weren’t a double by the end of next year.
11
Stocks to Follow
Our portfolio of junior mining companies reacted the way it always does when there’s a serious
chop on the price of gold. Market valuations of our low-priced and low volume stocks take the
stairway up and the elevator down, as such they get especially hard hit and take a while longer
to recover. It’s telling that below in “Producer Basket” we saw four winners from ten, as the
more liquid traded large caps recovered quickly on Friday while here, we have just two winners
(AR.to, MIRL.cse) and three UNCH stocks (SMD.v, MIN.to, AUL.v) from 15 open positions to
report. Not listing the ten losers, rather let’s note the biggest drops in Aldebaran (ALDE.v down
11.3%), Royal Road (RYR.v down 8.8%), Copper Mountain (CMMC.to down 7.9%) and keep
moving on. For those who care (you shouldn’t
much), please note the slight final price adjustment
in Carter Resources (ECR.v) as I sold my last during
the week and my exit average by half a cent. In
mitigation on those recent sales, here’s the ten day
chart of Amarillo Gold (AGC.v) (right). It tells me
that I was right to sell when I did, even before that
nasty Friday drop.
We currently have 14 open positions, one under our
self-imposed limit and I’m immediately tempted to
add. Such is life, but ultimately, I am a speculator
on junior mining stocks and right now, they are
very cheap. Just four of our open stocks are in the
green, which is pathetic and a long way from the “Up we go as long as copper continues to
rally!” spiel at this point last weekend.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.58 176.2% $1.14 tgt Aug'20, #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.59 -28.9% $1.30 tgt on capex raise, Jul21
Recommended stocks (In order of preference)
Copper Mountain CMMC.to ADDING C$3.51 18-Jun-21 C$3.03 -13.7% Top value Cu play, adding again
Argonaut Gold AR.to STR BUY C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$3.09 4.7% All right signs, added more
Trilogy Metals TMQ BUY U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.92 4.3% Cu for 2021, going well
Strategic Metals SMD.v hold C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.32 -23.8% Canadian land bet/Value trap?
Excelsior Mining MIN.to hold C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.55 -40.9% Delayed, great value if it works
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.68 16-May-21 C$0.55 -19.1% Bet on big copper, pol risk ok
QC Copper &Gold QCCU.v BUY C$0.205 25-Apr-21 C$0.18 -12.2% Cu Jr, fast-tracking resource
Royal Road Min. RYR.v BUY C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.26 67.7% Model paying off in Nica
Great Bear Res GBR.v BUY C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$13.20 -16.6% Binary M&A trade, wait for print
Aurelius Min. AUL.v hold/sell? C$0.75 28-Jun-20 C$0.335 -55.3% has until its 43-101 to improve
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.105 -46.2% CEO change will move stock
Long-term non-mining hold
Mene Inc. MENE.v LT Hold C$0.68 6-Dec-20 C$0.76 11.8% LT bet, added again July'21
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Mining NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
12
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Resources ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
2015 to 2020 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on a couple of our covered stocks:
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to): ADDING: After last weekend’s IKN Weekly bullish rah-rah on
CMMC, split into a couple of component parts, the stock duly dumps 8.8%. Fair enough I
suppose, Copper Mountain may have changed dramatically in the past year or so and become a
financially solid, near-guaranteed fountain of cash flow into the indefinite future, but the market
hasn’t caught onto its foundational changes as yet. When it does, CMC will move from its
current role of traders’ preferred flip on the metal to something commanding the type of P/E it
deserves. So fundamentally cheap it makes my teeth itch, at these prices we’re at 4X earnings
for a cash flow monster with organic growth baked in.
That would normally be the end of another table-banging session on this stock, but not today
because C$3.00 is the price I can no longer ignore on this stock. We’ve done all the numbers
on this stock and it’s time to get positioned now, before its bright future unfolds (and the
market decides copper must indeed be priced higher). The decision to buy Altiplano Metals
(APN.v, see today’s main fundies section above) also helped, as it highlighted the value on offer
in buying into the copper space now. Expect the IKN Weekly cost average for CMMC under
C$3.50 next weekend, with a rough personal target of $3.45 to $3.47 once the buying is done.
Altiplano Metals (APN.v): BUYING. A brief line for officialdoms sake (or something), please
see today’s main fundies section for more.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): By the same token and while highlighting the new APN trade, I want to
underscore that if it weren’t for the size of my long position in RIO.v* I’d be adding/buying here
as well. It’s a Top Pick, it’s very cheap, it is being irrationally discounted for political risk
reasons. Buy some, own some, at this price you cannot go wrong as long as gold doesn’t go
out of fashion.
*Also true for the other Top Pick, Minera Alamos (MAI.v)
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): Down, but largely due to the broader market ebb, QCCU is
now set fair to deliver the Maiden Resource Estimate (MRE) for its Opemiska project, QC CA.
The delay of approximately one month likely ends this week, but even if they make us wait one
more edition and take the final week of September, I’m good about the small delay on what
was always a sharp schedule.
In the main fundies section of IKN622 dated April 25th, we outlined the rationale behind buying
into this story, so rather than write my own words again here’s the briefing on the MRE and
how the ballpark looked to my eyes:
No reason to change the above in the vespers of the announcement. However, the recent
13
success with the drill bit in the Saddle Zone means we may get a surprise. Either way, my
“50mt baseline, 75mt would be good” scenario is enough to justify not only the investment
today, but plenty of price upside. So far at least this story is under most radars, but with their
own resource in-hand and then a PEA, QCCU gets the attention of a wider audience. Expect a
full analysis when the numbers show.
EDIT: Rather than change the above, a note to say that this desk heard on Sunday afternoon
hat the MRE will indeed come out tomorrow Monday morning. No special insight on its contents
however, we await the data.
Argonaut Gold (AR.to): AR continues to show sector-leading divergence to peers, this chart
highlighting how it is now even beating out the poster-child and blueprint for our current open
AR trade, house favourite Wesdome Gold (WDO.to). Here’s the 12 month chart of the two
stocks stacked against GDX, the visual speaks more eloquently of the accumulative pattern in
both stocks than I ever could.
However look to the right and there are clear signs our new trade is now getting the better of
its more advanced cousin, also with one of its major assets located in the upcoming Great
Lakes Ontario camp.
Excelsior Mining (MIN.to): Last week’s negative conclusion to the note on MIN noted how
I’d give the stock “…a few weeks to see if its price responds to a willing market.” That’s not one
but two conditions to fulfil, this chart shows the problem:
We see the last ten days, with the dump on the MIN news two Thursdays ago. Excelsior
managed to finish UNCH on the week and that isn’t bad, but the non-reaction to the broader
selling late week wasn’t so good and certainly not my idea of “a willing market” for the
Gunnison story. CEO Steve Twyerould told your author the company would be ramping up its
investor awareness and IR, that cannot come too soon.
14
Aurelius (AUL.v): No NR and a holding pattern out of AUL at this low price. With real news of
resources on the table will come a proactive decision.
Aldebaran (ALDE.v): I’ve changed ALDE from “Buy to “Spec Buy” on the table above as a
way of noting that the current 60c-ish level is the place for buyers. Until they ramp up their
marketing campaign, that is. Those inside this company know the date on which the name
Aldebaran starts blaring from social media channel and trades up on higher volume, normally
once preceding a positive NR that then feeds momentum. I don’t know that date, so I hold.
The Copper Basket
After thirty-seven weeks of 2021, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 25.98% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.08 107.53 1414.02 13.15 116.3%
2 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 1.81 207.5 628.73 3.03 67.4%
3 Oroco Res OCO.v 1.85 186.96 461.79 2.47 33.5%
4 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.25 87.737 333.40 3.80 16.9%
5 Western Copper WRN.to 1.57 135.798 285.18 2.10 33.8%
6 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.80 181.79 230.87 1.27 58.8%
7 Excelsior Min. MIN.to 1.12 273.585 150.47 0.55 -50.9%
8 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.115 438.56 96.48 0.22 91.3%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.07 101.85 92.68 0.91 -15.0%
10 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.455 125.24 68.88 0.55 20.9%
11 Doré Copper DCMC.v 1.00 53.304 41.58 0.78 -22.0%
12 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.45 68.281 40.29 0.59 31.1%
13 Chakana Cop PERU.v 0.60 111.41 38.99 0.35 -41.7%
14 US Copper USCU.v 0.105 87.53 10.94 0.125 19.0%
15 Chibougamau CBG.v 0.165 53.077 11.41 0.215 30.3%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 25.98%
One of those weeks when the copper market 60% The Copper Basket 2021, weekly evolution
huffs, puffs and closes Friday all-but 55%
50%
unchanged. It was also a volatile and mixed 45%
bag inside our Copper Basket, with the seven 40%
35%
winners (SLS.to, WRN.to, ARG.to, REG.v, 30%
CCCM.v, ECU.v, CBG.v) including a big week- 25%
20%
over-week (WoW) movers in C3 Metals
15%
(CCCM.v up 22.2%). Meanwhile the six 10%
5%
losers (CMMC.to, OCO.v, MARI.to, ALDE.v,
0%
DCMC.v, USCU.v) include the chopped-up
Doré Copper (DCMC.v down 13.3%),
Aldebaran (ALDE.v down 11.3%) and US
Copper (USCU.v down 10.7%). Two UNCH
stocks (MIN.to, PERU.v) make up the weight.
This week’s copper price chart (below) covers the near-term, its message loud and clear. Last
weekend, copper was sitting pretty after a technical breakout and raft of real world reasons to
suppose metal demand was still out-stripping supply. We put it like this, a mere seven days
ago:
“Chinese buyers who were apparently refusing to pay up had a sudden change of
heart, we saw the highest prices of the Northern summer on the back of the clear
15
ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91
source: IKN calcs
inflationary impulse.”
My mistake? Forgetting that China is the world’s customer for copper and that customers
prefers paying low prices. Or if you like, I forgot the narrative driving copper and all base
metals prices is Asian, not European or North American. Data say China’s macro is under
pressure, the stress point shows in the aluminium sector. Many headlines in trade papers last
week about Alu supply crimps to end users in China now forecast, due to power generation
issues in the country that have seen the politburo cut supply to its (extremely) power-hungry
alu smelters. Last week also saw bearish news flow out of China for copper, with its August
2021 industrial production growth up by 5.3%, a miss compared to forecasts and the 6.4% of
July 2021. Just afterward, another dataset from China’s Caixin wholesale buyers, the proxy for
Producer Confidence in the country and the reading came in badly at 46.7 for August. That
compared to 54.9 in July and anything below 50 indicates recession. All very convenient for a
country that is trying to keep input prices low and the jawbone did indeed suppressed metals
prices, as did the news on Thursday morning (you see the overnight reaction in the chart
above) that China’s State Planning body (9) “planned to release more metals” from its reserves
to "overcome mismatches between supply and demand". They went as far as to say that
copper, aluminium and zinc prices were still “artificially high”. A check on punctuation:
For “Planned to release more metals”, please read “A small sword of Damocles,
we’re trying to threaten a stockpile release without doing it”
For “Overcome mismatches between supply and demand”, please read “not enough
copper in China for the demand we have today”
For “Artificially high”, please read “Artificially low”.
Modern history has taught us that it’s easy to dismiss “ChinaFear!” on metals demand, the
narrative permanent Boy Cry Wolf. Be weary about the world’s largest country by population for
other reasons, but don’t think for a second that its voracious appetite for raw materials (and in
our case copper) is about to drop.
Talk of a weak future in China sounds a little odd once you look at the numbers end-users are
generating. It’s time for the weekly update on world inventory data, Chile’s Cochilco provides
the numbers and the main SHFE website (10) makes sure they’re right:
The same story as recent weeks, real copper data ignores all the jawbone and tells the
truth about this tight market. Total copper tonnages for the three official world systems
dropped 10,210 metric tonnes (mt) last week, with this weekend’s total is 332,489mt.
The sound of China threatening to dump more strategic reserve of the market did not
stop the drying of SHFE copper inventories, with another 7,497mt Cu leaving stock last
week. Friday’s close saw total stocks at 54,341mt and every day is a new record now.
16
The LME added to the suck, another 2,750mt copper lost from stocks and the geo-
location of those inventory numbers need a mention: Asian warehouses lost 8,350mt,
European warehouses added 5,600mt. By the close Friday, LME stocks stood at
231,200mt.
The Comex added another small 456mt, to close the week at 46,948mt. Perhaps in the
medium-term future and 2022, Comex will regain a little market heft but, until Chinese
copper demand is fully priced in, this dataset will remain inconsequential.
Here’s the Shanghai-only inventories chart, anyone looking at that chart and ignoring the nea-
term market noise will back copper in Q4.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
17
31'13ceD ht9 ht81 ht72 ht5tco ht41 dn22 5102
dr3yam
ht21 ht02 ht92 ht7bef ht71 ht62 ht4peS ht31 ht92 ht9 ht81 ht72 7102
ht5von
ht41 ht52 ht01 ht91 ht82 9102
ht6naJ
ht71 ht62 ht4gua ht31 dn22 0202ts1ram ht01 ht91 ht72 0202ht6ced ht41 ht52 1202ht4luj ht21
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
The new variety of chart on the same dataset, we underscore the differences, particularly that
of 2020. The SHFE September futures contract close out last week and saw plenty of rolling
over to December. Its market continues in backwardation and buyers are still buyng.
MT Cu SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2021 Jun to Sept
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000 2021
2020
50000 2019
2018
0
20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
source: Cochilco data
Now for notes on just one basket stock:
C3 Metals (CCCM.v): This is not a rock play, neither is it an area play or a drill play. It’s not
even a copper or gold play, C3 Metals (CCCM.v) is a trade on the people behind it and, as such,
it’s one this desk will never buy. Also, the ownership history of CCCM’s flagship property,
Jasperoide, is more important than the 235m of 0.67% Cu and 0.34 g/t gold it announced on
September 8th (11). Previously held by Hochschild (HOC.L) and drilled by them around a decade
ago, it was a short campaign that returned decent results without ever giving its owners (at the
time) reason to carry it any further. But HOC isn’t stupid, they don’t lapse on concessions even
if thy aren’t mines in the making.
Cut to last year and the sudden rush to find exploration lands in South America, HOC got the
call from C3 Metals (from Fernando Pickmann, representing Brian Maher and Kimberly Ann) as
they searched for a prospective project upon which to run an exploreco. HOC offers Jasperoide
(et al) at the same time that a whole bunch of larger land holders in Peru are doing the same
thing for other juniors. It was the top of the Peru land market last year, and the seller (HOC)
got rid of its llama pasture to the buyer (CCCM) at the best price it could have fetched over the
last ten years. Here in 2021, Jasperoide is
always going to give the type of flashy, first-
pass drill result hat a TSXV junior needs
(they could twin those early holes, after all)
and there will likely be more to come of the
same style. As for the price action, this ten
day chart tells us the promo pump is now on
(and working).
People wonder why I don’t buy these stocks.
If you’re one of them, you shouldn’t be
paying to read The IKN Weekly as it’s not the
publication that fits your investment style. C3
Metals (CCCM.v) is a classic example of a
company built specifically to sell sizzle to
Vancouver, a stock with no other ambition than to make its controllers rich. A standard principle
of speculative investing in juniors is to be first to spot the fatal flaw in any story, in this way
(and when it works right) the speculator hold the stories that promise and deliver long-term
success (e.g. MAI.v, RIO.v) while letting others drop (e.g. ORE, NGD) before others see the
problem. However, there are a whole bunch of stocks that have their fatal flaw in plain sight
even before one considers the company and its projects and this is one of them. A company
with these directors, buying a long-fallow concession from a large miner with zero interest in its
own project despite hearing for a decade that its own country wants and needs more porphyry
deposits to be developed. One that got flashy hits a decade ago, but was dropped by a serious
geology team, is now a flagship project of the people who brought you PPX Mining.
Bottom line: If you can see the fatal flaw in a company in the first five minutes of your DD, the
rest is noise. This is a stock for media channels that accept money from junior miners and
funnily enough, this paid-for slot (12) with Canada’s Financial Post. Specifically, one Jim Gordon
of Market One Minute, who spoke to CCCM President and CEO Kevin Tomlinson in July this
year. It’s a video slot, but it’s interesting to read the video transcript below:
And HOC didn’t know all that? The retail investor should reflect that one of Peru’s biggest and
18
longest-established mining companies handed over Jasperoide despite all those things, rather
than because of them.
The Producer Basket
After thirty-seven weeks of 2021, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 16.99% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out Mkt Cap (U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 59.89 805 44.45 55.22 -7.8%
2 Barrick GOLD 22.78 1778.04 32.64 18.36 -19.4%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 70.51 244.187 13.00 53.23 -24.5%
4 Kirkland Lake KL 41.27 267.056 11.01 41.23 -0.1%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 7.34 1261.07 6.91 5.48 -25.3%
6 Endeavour Min EDV.to 29.62 252.568 6.28 29.86 0.8%
7 Pan American PAAS 34.71 210.262 5.13 24.39 -29.7%
8 B2Gold BTG 5.60 1051.697 3.84 3.65 -34.8%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 8.75 392.739 2.93 7.45 -14.9%
10 Pretium Res PVG 11.48 187.833 1.85 9.85 -14.2%
Prices in U$ except EDV.to (share price in CAD$ and mkt cap in approx USD) Port. avg -16.99%
With gold dropping the way it did, no surprise to see The Producer Basket down for a third
week in a row, the drop another 1.2% on the week and the overall adjustment for September
(so far) 6.25% in three weeks. However, our basket delivered a small and pleasant surprise,
with four winners from 10:
The 2021 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and 20%
comparative to GDX control
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
thanks to a better showing from the smaller caps. The six losers include the Tier 1 names
(NEM, GOLD, AEM, KGC, PAAS, BTG), the four winners generally more leveraged (KL, EDV.to,
PVG, AGI). Worst of the week was Barrick (GOLD down 5.1%), best of the week Kirkland Lake
(KL up 1.8%). Therefore, while our basket dropped 1.21% it was definitely least worst and the
gap behind benchmark GDX is under 2% for the first time since April.
In a couple of weeks’ time, the edition that wraps up Q3 will run the comparatives and we’ll
have more comment on the recovery but at this point it’s less about market tidal factors, more
about stock-picking; finally, a few of the stocks chosen at the start of the year to out-perform
have started to d just that.
Kirkland Lake (KL), Alamos Gold (AGI) and Pretium Resources (PVG): Again winning
on the week and underscoring the premium the market is now willing to pay for low-cost,
profitable gold mining assets is low risk jurisdictions. It is absolutely not a coincidence that
those three out-performed the market by a distances and all finished positive on the week.
19
ts1
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t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91
The 2021 Producer Basket: Percentage difference between
GDX benchmark and basket (negative = IKN basket ahead) 8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
basket
gdx control 0.0%
source: Google, IKN Calcs ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91
source: IKN calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq/TSX data
The Tiny Dogs
After thirty-seven weeks of 2021, the Tiny Dogs show a loss of 2.76% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Antler Gold ANTL.v 0.205 61.348 7.98 0.13 -36.6%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.045 163.975 6.56 0.04 -11.1%
Constantine Met CEM.v 0.17 45.4 18.39 0.405 138.2%
Contact Gold C.v 0.115 240.757 14.45 0.06 -47.8%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.22 40 4.40 0.11 -50.0%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.045 230.79 18.46 0.08 77.8%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.240 106.241 9.56 0.09 -62.5%
QC Copper QCCU.v 0.315 105 18.90 0.18 -42.9%
Red Pine Expl RPX.v 0.400 95.806 51.74 0.54 35.0%
Warrior Gold WAR.v 0.090 91.818 5.97 0.065 -27.8%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg -2.76%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The Tiny Dogs list slips into the negative,
dragged down by generalized selling in tinycap 20% Tiny Dogs, 2021 weekly tracker
stocks on low volumes. There were no winners, 16%
two UNCH stocks (ANTL.v, MTU.v) and eight 12%
losers, which don’t get listed. Instead the biggest 8%
losers, namely Warrior Gold (WAR.v down 4%
18.8%), Aston Bay (BAY.v down 11.1%) and 0%
Precipitate (PRG.v down 10.0%). -4%
-8%
20
-12%
ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91
source: IKN calcs, TSX data
Warrior Gold (WAR.v): It took two weeks after the close of the recent placement priced at
eight cents for that price to fail properly.
That’s the sound of warrants being clipped by one of the participants. That lack of retail interest
means instos will dictate the price of the stock (unless they hit something, of course).
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It is possible that in the
future I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, but at the moment both my opinion and my wallet are strictly
neutral.
Regional politics
Pedro Castillo at CELAC
Peru’s new President made his first foreign visit as Head of State this week, joining the other
Presidents and assorted dignitaries at the CELAC conference in Mexico (Comunidad de Estados
Latinoamericanos y Caribeños, a group of 33 regional countries that has gained political power
and influence among the Left-leaning countries who see it as a bloc alternative to the USA-
centric OAS). Despite the late and controversial arrival of President Maduro of Venezuela,
Castillo was the main event at the conference if only to see what position he would take on
State-level issues.
The answer was, all reasonably sensible. He underscored Peru and his government’s aim to
eradicate poverty, racism, sexism and other serious barriers to development in LatAm/Carib,
made the right noises about diplomacy, didn’t upset anybody or say anything out of turn. In
other words, about as good as one could have expected from the new President and in-line
with the low-profile image he’s projecting inside Peru, as well. Regarding that, our house call to
“Buy Peru” is now looking better. It will still be a rough political passage, but GDP growth is
picking up again after the political shocks and the apparently Communist government is
showing very little sign of making sweeping changes to way Peru lives and works.
One notable development is the new positioning of Central Bankhead, Julio Velarde, as the
most important person in the country. The “will he/won’t he stay on” debate has developed
with every utterance from the man, who plays his cards carefully and makes sure there’s
enough doubt about him remaining in the post to cause nerves to jangle. The result is that
President Castillo will now say or do most anything to keep Velarde onside and “stop the Dollar
from flying”, as the local vernacular goes.
The result: The country’s situation will improve as long as Velarde stays “in power” and that
allows the establishment plenty of leverage against President Castillo. If he limits his ambitions
to social programs and keeps a low profile nobody will mind much, but the spectre of
“economic collapse if Velarde leaves” now has a Left wing President eager to please and remain
on good terms with the most capitalist of men possible. Such is life in Peru.
21
Market Watching
Tracking the Buy Peru call
It’s still not much more than a faint pulse, but if you look closely enough you see the improving
macro image from Peru. For example, this three month chart of the respective ETFs that track
indices for peer countries Colombia (ICOL), Brazil (EWZ) and Chile (ECH), as well as the almost
unstoppable SP500, of course.
The whipping it took in August on the ratification of the Pedro Castillo government has now
turned to the country’s favour. Instead, Brazil and its ongoing Covid.19 crisis combined fast
rising influence of next year’s Presidential election, still over 12 months away, has turned the
region’s biggest country into our latest piñata.
Harte Gold (HRT.to): An eye on the side bet
It’s here on sufferance, as we’re now unlikely to get resolution before the end of September
and the current deadline (or line in the sand) with its creditors and interested parties. We do
however remind readers that since Appian stepped back from the board, it means we’re going
to get movement on the story one way or the other.
This is a small bet on corporate re-structuring, we expect HRT to get more than remnant value
and though its financial debt is both real and a burden, overall book value is neutral and there’s
value to be had from holding through the deal. These share don’t go to zero, we await to find
out what does happen to them.
Another thought on New Gold (NGD)
This chart shows the last month of trading in New Gold (NGD), which is also the lapse of time
since we looked closely at the stock and decided it
was way oversold (in IKN639):
That call has worked, but it wasn’t going to get
another mention or opportunity to humblebrag until
the last couple of days trading last week, particularly
on Friday when NGD moved up 6.1% on strong
volumes. NGD wasn’t alone in displaying relative
strength last week, we’ve already identified stocks
such as AGI, WDO.to and AR.to doing the same
above. That doesn’t detract from the renewed
popularity in NGD, so recently in the penalty box. This
stock continues to crop up on these pages, more due
to prompting from readership as my own preference for coverage. All mails welcome, of course.
Minera IRL concerned shareholders update
As noted in the latest update to the Concerned Shareholder list and Silicon Investor blog (13),
22
the issues and grave problems at the company boils down to a question of governance. CEO
Benavides has treated the company as his own fiefdom for too long, happily doling out
“consultancy fees” of U$5,000 per month to his sentimental partner and members of his family,
such as his son put into a fake lawyer’s position at Corihuarmi and paid off-books. And while all
these illegal and morally reprehensible acts went on directors turned a blind eye, mostly
because they are all coincidentally “personal friends of Diego Benavides.
It all stinks to high heaven, but it is time to act against members of this board of directors,
starting with its weakest point: Michael Iannacone is the only Canadian director at this
Canadian domiciled company and, therefore an important person for MIRL to have on board.
However, his director’s position at MIRL is as important to Iannacone as he is to the company,
as the corporate biography at his main job makes clear (14) by stating:
“His experience with public companies as a CFO plays an integral role in the
operations of Adventus.”
As a matter of fact, MIRL is his only directorial position at the present time and losing it would
reflect badly on his current position as CFO of Adventus Realty. Iannacone is set to step down
from the board this year but cannot be allowed to leave quietly, as his governance is one of the
major failings at MIRL. Michael Iannacone has lapsed in his fiduciary duty to shareholders. We
can begin with his decision to (probably blindly) sign off on the appointments of Diego
Benavides’ unqualified and inexperienced personal friends for executive roles at the company,
that alone enough to get him into hot water, but now he is also part of the general conspiracy
of silence from the company, the lack of answers to any meaningful question forthcoming as
CEO Benavides tries to cover up his mismanagement. However and unlike the other directors,
Michael Iannacone is approachable via his own mail address:
michael_iannacone@telus.net
Your author believes that if enough Concerned Shareholders decide to mail Michael Iannacone
and, with the utmost respect and good manners, make clear their deep-seated issues with the
current management at Minera IRL, it would go a long way to getting the company to answer
for its acts. As for the subject matter, that’s’ up to you but I’d suggest that the prima facie case
of Gabbie, Valdez and Ngatai should at least get a mention. If you decide to join your author in
mailing Mr. Iannacone, we stress that a respectful and polite tone is required from one and all*.
Conclusion
IKN643 is done, we end with bullet points:
Buying copper exposure going into 4q21 is the winning ticket, buying CMMC at $3.00 is
a great place to start. The overnight weakness in Asia trading is temporary.
The incorrect opinion held by the mining industry toward Chile won’t last long, but
while it does it makes sense to take advantage- Altiplano Metals (APN.v) offers a lot of
asset value and organic growth for a small price
More copper next weekend, as we look forward to the MRE from our small copper spec
play QC Copper (QCCU.v). Don’t fear the taper.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
*except me
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best, Mark
23
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://iknnews.com/silver-a-year-later-red-dog-stick-theory-still-explains-its-price-movements/
(2) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/09/fomc-preview-tapering-advance-notice.html
(3) https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/CA/XTSX/APN/company-people/executive-profile/7932
(4) http://www.apnmetals.com/_resources/presentations/corporate-presentation.pdf?v=0.3
(5) http://www.apnmetals.com/news/altiplano-options-pastillas-gold-copper-exploration-project-in-the-maricunga-belt-of-
chile
(6) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKKZ6U_QjXQ
(7) http://www.apnmetals.com/news/altiplano-receives-approval-to-complete-construction-at-the-el-pen-cu-au-
processing-facility
(8) http://www.apnmetals.com/news/altiplano-obtains-exploitation-permit-at-maria-luisa
(9) https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/metals-shanghai-aluminium-rises-on-supply-fears-state-metal-sale-plan-caps-gain-
2021-09-16
(10) http://www.shfe.com.cn/en/MarketData/dataview.html?paramid=weeklystock
(11) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/c3-metals-intersects-235-metres-110000916.html
(12) https://financialpost.com/business-trends/c3-metals-has-amassed-a-rare-copper-gold-portfolio-in-elephant-country
(13) https://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=33487118
(14) https://www.adventusrealty.com/profile/senior-management
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
24
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
25
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
26