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The IKN Weekly
Week 638, August 22nd 2021
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Gold does its
job, House conviction.
Fundamental Analysis: A less brief opinion on New Gold (NGD).
Stocks to Follow: Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Argonaut Gold (AR.to).
Copper Basket: Overview.
Producer Basket: Overview, Pretium Redux (PVG).
Tiny Dogs: Overview, Precipitate Gold (PRG.v).
Regional Politics: Peru this coming week.
Market Watching: Tracking the Buy Peru call, A chart revision on Kuya Silver (KUYA.cse),
Precipitate Gold (PRG.v): A corporate pivot trade, Harte Gold (HRT.to): An eye on the side bet,
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): Concerned Shareholders (1).
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
“
In Today’s Edition
 The Minera IRL (MIRL.cse) situation offers a clear opportunity for shareholder to make
money. With the premise that something is better than nothing, this week’s main event
is in ‘Market Watching’.
 Today’s fundies report on New Gold (NGD) is a sleeper prompted by reader feedback.
Yes, I should have paid more attention to its 2q21 numbers and yes, it was lucky I
didn’t. This stock is now trading at a deep discount and doesn’t deserve to be down this
far, NGD is way oversold and will surely rebound.
 Setting MIRL aside, it’s not all bad in today’s Market Watching: Precipitate Gold (PRG.v)
last week announced a corporate re-working, news that got lost as the wide market
rushed for the door. The type of announcement that could have doubled the stock this
time last year, we also return to my love/hate relationship with Kuya Silver (KUYA.cse)
as the selling makes that look more attractive today as well.
 The Conviction List is best as an intro piece.
The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium
Thursday to Saturday this week is Jackson Hole, one of The USA’s (and therefore the world’s)
main macroeconomic events of the calendar year and a date that, along with US Labor Day up
soon, marks “the end of summer” in the Northern hemisphere financial world. The cliché of
suited-up bankers making their final summer copter flight from The Hamptons may be
stretching the image a little too far these days, but, we do know the world “gets serious”
around this moment and for our focus sector, the next two months (three maximum) are also
the classic financing window” of the year, when companies go to market, explain their recent
1

successes and ask for more money to go and do more successful things. Hopefully a few of our
positions do just that and we then get to sell them at a profit, but first some lines on last
week’s carnage.
Gold does its job
After the week we just experienced, on top of the previous drudgery of August, there’s a long
list of phrases you don’t need to hear from a mining newsletter writer. Those hackneyed calls
and pep talks to “Keep the faith!” and “Not long now!”, with assurances the corrupt and
imaginary world financial system is on the brink of collapse may provide encouragement the
first few times, but at some point they just get annoying.
Which means I now get to annoy you: While most of the rest of The IKN Weekly sticks to
mining stocks, the intro considers the underlying metal and the above chart is well worth your
consideration It may seem as though there’s no bottom to it all, but when gold bullion remains
that solid the mining stocks can only go down by so much before they bounce back. The same
from our GLD derivative charts…
7.40 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2018 to date
7.20
7.00
6.80
6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80
5.60
…that underscore the sentiment washout in gold bullion. However, the sellers her are doing so
for reasons opposite to the traditional, they liquidate bullion in order to cover margin. So yes, it
was a horrid week and I’m not going to sugarcoat that, just look at the red ink below for more.
But the lack of wholesale panic was also evident;
it will take more than Delta and Afghanistan to
upset the Fed’s plans. Indeed, the way the US
Dollar soaked up the Fear Trade was textbook
and even gives The USA some leeway on interest
rates now. The Fed jumped at that chance last
week too, quickly getting in the point that they
may start tapering sooner rather than later.
2
2/1/8102 11/2/8102 32/3/8102 2/5/8102 11/6/8102 12/7/8102 03/8/8102 9/01/8102 81/11/8102 82/21/8102 6/2/9102 81/3/9102 72/4/9102 6/6/9102 61/7/9102 52/8/9102 4/01/9102 31/11/9102 32/21/9102 1/2/0202 21/3/0202 12/4/0202 13/5/0202 01/7/0202 91/8/0202 82/9/0202 7/11/0202 71/21/0202 62/1/1202 7/3/1202 61/4/1202 62/5/1202 5/7/1202 41/8/1202
GLD gold holdings, 2018 to date (metric tonnes)
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700 Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
600
500
81/1/1 81/3/1 81/5/1 81/7/1 81/9/1 81/11/1 91/1/1 91/3/1 91/5/1 91/7/1 91/9/1 91/11/1 02/1/1 02/3/1 02/5/1 02/7/1 02/9/1 02/11/1 12/1/1 12/3/1 12/5/1 12/7/1
mt
source: SPDR GLD data

Bottom line: As unpleasant as last week’s Afghan/Delta driven selling was, it wasn’t panic. The
USD performed, gold played safe haven and by the end of the week the trade was already
reversing (see Dr Copper for more).
House conviction
This desk gets a regular and understandable query from subscribers, one that revolves around
personal sentiment of open trades. It’s one thing to open and build a position, quite another to
sit back when finished and watch it develop. That’s the period in which attitudes can change, to
the point where the owner of shares (e.g. me) will consider perhaps selling earlier than
expected if the plan isn’t working, or maybe adding more if the trade is going well. For sure, it’s
also the idea behind the “sentiment” column of the Stocks to Follow list where a word or two to
give a feel of how I consider the present-day of an open trade, but it’s admittedly a basic
indicator. Fact is, the regularity of mails from subscribers asking me about current convictions
levels in stock XYZ or ABC tells me something; I’m not doing my job right. Hence this note
today and at the moment The IKN Weekly is running 17 open positions, each with different
sizes and performance up to date. That’s one thing, but what we’re about today is getting a
present-day take so what follows is a list, top-to-bottom, of how I’m feeling about he stocks I
own. I’m even going to colour-code it:
 Minera Alamos (MAI.v)
 Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v)
 Argonaut Gold (AR.to)
 Copper Mountain (CMMC.to)
 Mene Inc (MENE.v)
 QC Copper (QCCU.v)
 Aldebaran Res (ALDE.v)
The above are all high conviction trades at the moment. They are in order too, I am keenest of
all on the prospects of the Top Picks Minera Alamos and Rio2 Ltd. Then come Argonaut and
Copper Mountain, both high conviction trades for the same reason; their value proposition of
earnings vs market cap are outstanding. Following them and high up the list comes Mene
(MENE.v), which doesn’t get the coverage it deserves because it’s not a company that produces
gold, instead it uses it. We round out with QC Copper (QCCU.v) and Aldebaran (ALDE.v), which
I like at the moment because they are on the cusp of their own news catalysts. Now for the
second level:
 Trilogy Metals (TMQ)
 Amarillo Gold (AGC.v)
 Royal Road (RYR.v)
Today, late August 2021, the above three are lower priority until further notice. RYR continues
on its successful business plan and is very easy to hold. Trilogy is a binary trade that needs
South 32 to make its move and buy it out, then Amarillo is set to deliver financing news in the
next two months. Up to recently AGC was higher conviction, but the recent share price
weakness has chipped away at that slightly. The devil will be in the details of the cash raise to
build Mara Rosa. We move to companies being held until further notice, with conviction on hold
until they deliver on plans:
 Strategic Metals (SMD.v)
 Great Bear (GBR.v)
 Excelsior (MIN.to)
What SMD, GBR and MIN have in common is a lack of momentum and stories that are “on
hold” for their own reasons. More information is needed for SMD and MIN, while GBR is another
binary trade on the eventual buyout. There’s nothing wrong with the above companies, the
issue is more a lack of momentum in a negative market atmosphere. They get patience from
me, but no more cash. The final group below gets coloured in red:
3

 Wolfden (WLF.v)
 Aurelius (AUL.v)
 Cartier (ECR.v)
 Minera IRL (MIRL.cse)
With 17 open positions on a list built for 15, I haven’t made any secret about wanting to dump
a few of the losing and/or bad trades and the first three above, WLF, AUL and ECR, fit the bill
to a tee. The policy decision to hold through August now looks to have been a mistake on my
part, but I will stick it out as planned until the end of the month and Labor Day. However, the
first three on the list have been on warnings for a while and nobody should be surprised if I
decide to “raise a little cash” next month. Rounding out, Minera IRL (MIRL.cse) comes in its
own category of “Constant Long-Term Nightmare”, but that’s another story so see ‘Market
Watching’ below for the latest there.
Bottom line: Today’s list has 17 names and of those, there are seven that I’d urge you to own
at the current price deck. But aside from the last four stocks, painted in red and all on the
selling block, I’m not throwing shade on the other companies (AGC, GBR, MIN, TMQ, etc) and
their chances of providing wins are still intact. Timing and momentum seem to be against them
at the moment, but those are not trade killers under normal circumstances and allowing them
patience is the right strategy.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
A less brief opinion on New Gold (NGD)
“Against ill chances men are ever merry,
But heaviness foreruns the good event.”
Henry IV Pt2, Act4, Sc2, ll 81-82
Preamble: Today’s note comes with a confession; there was indeed a plan to look more
closely at New Gold last week but, with the fast developing story at Minera IRL (MIRL.cse) and
more obvious interest in the open trade at Argonaut Gold (AR.to) took my time and come
Sunday evening, all I had left was “A brief opinion on New Gold (NGD)”. My mistake was made
apparent to me as well, with readers AP, DT and DC all mailing in with variations on the same
message; they’d a view on the NGD numbers. Therefore as NGD’s stock price continued to drop
last week I began to pay more attention and today’s note is to make amends for my laziness.
It’s also a lucky mistake, as the selling I mentioned last weekend in IKN638 was only the
beginning of the dump:
GDX dropped 6% last week, NGD dropped 13% and its dump is now 30%. That may provide a
cheap entry point if, as we suspect, the selling seen last week lacks logic.
2q21 results and guidance: We start with the easy part to this quarter, as NGD had already
4

reported good production numbers and we knew they’d make good money. With 68,184 oz
gold and 16.9m lbs copper sold, sales closely matched production and the average received
gold price was good too, at U$1,817/oz (the hedge now all gone). Here are three of our sales
tracker charts with Q2 updated, but there’s now differences in the quarters to come:
OzAu NGD: Quarterly gold production
110000
100000 Gold NA
90000
Gold RR
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21
source: NGD filings, IKN ests
NGD: New Afton copper production and sales, per qtr
5
2.22 3.12 4.02 6.91 7.12 5.02 8.02 7.91 5.91 2.02 6.12 3.81 1.02 6.02 3.81 3.71 5.81 7.71 9.61 3.51 2.81 5.71 5.81 5.71 8.31 3.31 2.81 9.61 81 71 81 71
Mlb Cu
24 Cu prod
22 Cu sales
20
18
16
14
12 10 8
6
4
2
0
1q182q183q184q181q192q193q194q191q202q203q204q201q212q213q214q21
source: NGD filings, IKN ests
NGD: Gold production vs Sales, Oz per qtr
41006 60106 12647 58407 19167 41657 25869 65048 91108 00109 86958 45948 99029 99768 94676 95527 51576 92596 72156 26616 61208 49867 69038 69088 70586 12356 15296 62407 00058 00058 00079 00079
130000
120000
Total Au prod
110000
Total Au sales
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000 40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1q18 2q18 3q18 4q18 1q19 2q19 3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21
source: NGD filings, IKN calcs
The major problem in NGD’s Q2 wasn’t the past but the future, the company now stating it may
miss guidance due to a grade reconciliation problem at Rainy River. Here’s the extended quote
from the 2q21 MD&A with your author adding bold type:
At Rainy River in the second half of the year, the mine returns to higher-grade areas of
the pit (433, HS and ODM zones). However, in July 2021, production was primarily from
the eastern area of the ODM zone (“East Lobe”) and realized gold grade from this area
was below the expected gold grade in this period. East Lobe represents approximately
50% of planned production for the second half of 2021. If realized gold grade
continues to track below expected gold grade, it would negatively impact the
amount of ounces we expect to produce in the second half of 2021. The extent of
the impact is not yet known but there is a risk that Rainy River may not achieve the
lower end of its gold equivalent1 production guidance range of 275,000 to 295,000

ounces or the high end of its all-in sustaining costs guidance range of $1,125 per
gold eq. ounce to $1,225 per gold eq. ounce. Management continues to assess the
extent and impact of the lower gold grade from East Lobe, including additional reverse
circulation drilling, and intend to provide updated information when available. The
remaining high-grade areas that are planned to be mined during the second half of 2021,
reconcile well with the resource block model, consistent with historical results.
This was also the major talking point of the 2q21 conference call, though interesting there was
only one analyst on the call asking questions, Anita Soni of CIBC. That alone might help explain
why the stock tanked hard. The 2q21 Conference Call (transcript here (1)) provided more
information with CEO Renaud Adams at the mike. Please take time to read all his words
carefully, but I have bold-typed one section for those that skim:
So the East Lobe represent approximately 50% of the planned productions for the
second half of 2021. So if the realized gold grade continue to track below the expected
gold grade, it will negatively impact the amount of ounces we expect to produce in the
second half of 2021. So the extent of the impact is not yet known, but there is a risk
that Rainy River may not achieve the lower end of its gold equivalent production
guidance range of 275,000 to 295,000 ounces, or the high end of its all-in sustaining
costs guiding range of $1,125 to $1,225 per gold equivalent ounce. So I'm now turning
to the Slide 10.
We appreciate that the situation of July is very recent. But I would like to provide some
additional comments at this disclosure. So let me start by giving a bit of the
background here. So the resources at Rainy are categorized in three groups: the high,
medium and low grade, they're called the HGO, MGO and LGO.
So the combination of the HGO and MGO form what we would call the direct feed to
the mill, while the LGO is stockpiled for future use. So in other word, the combination of
the HGO/MGO is really what you're targeting to feed the mill at a 27,000 tonnes a day,
while the LGO are stockpiled for future blend where the underground as we move and
transition to the underground. So the reconciliation of the HGO/MGO is really what
drive the performance of the mine. So as you could see on the table, historically, the
mine has reconciled extremely well with the HGO and the MGO.
In the last three years, as you could see, we have successfully mined and delivered on
a neutral to positive reconciliation to total ounces when it compares with the resource
model. So with that in mind, the planned 2021 production was done using the reserve
of December 2020, which was based on, of course, the resource and the fate and the
reconciliation. So as mentioned, the East Lobe represents about 50% of the tonnes to
be mined in the second half. So as we initiate the second half of the year at a higher-
grade plant and that the production was primarily from the East Lobe and that
represents the 50% in H2, so of course, this situation was highlighted.
So the situation of July 2021 is very early stage. There is still quite a bit of work
to be done. I'd like to mention that the East Lobe represents approximately only
15%, 1-5, 15% of the remaining open pit of HGO/MGO post 2021. So we're not
talking about something of the 50% range in the remaining life of mine. But this
represents a significant portion of the H2, and therefore, the situation is taking,
obviously, extremely seriously. So it is really early stage to predict the behavior
of the East Lobe in the future months to come. We've been in a situation very
similar in the past. So not because we have reconciled on an early basis
extremely well in the last three years, that every zone every day, every month,
every moment was perfect.
So we've been in a situation before where we've seen similar situations where we had
some reconciliation on a sporadic basis. But again, because of the importance of the
East Lobe in the second half, this was highlighted in a very early stage. So I'd like as
well to notice that the RC drilling was incorporated to our strategy in 2020 and fully
incorporated into our operational strategy in 2021. So I'd like to mention as well that
the RC drilling that took place below the 433 and ODM earlier this year has confirmed
the sources as planned, but RC drilling program for the East Lobe was not yet
completed and will be advanced as we advance over time over the next week.
So we'll keep you informed as the information comes to us. And there is some potential
modification of the mine plan as well, if needed, to mitigate a portion of the 2021
6

impact. But again, early stage and more analysis required as we advance in time.
I don’t know about you, but the impression I got from Renaud Adams during that CC is the one
I always get from him: Never the CEO for
extravagance or grand claims, instead he’s the one
who aims you low and then out-performs. There
seems to be a lot of caution built into NGD’s
announcement of grade issues at East Lobe and, as
the conference call presentation slide 10 points out
in the top righ, it’s not the first time Rainy River has
played up. The solution previously has been to up
tonnages and produce the same amount of ounces,
which worked at the mine but did no favours to an
NGD laden with debt. These days, with debt under
control and no hedging on the gold, NGD can afford
to raise operating costs per ounce if required.
Financial results: The other apparent negative
from the NGD 2q21 was its bottom line, a net loss
of U$15.8m caused by “…adjustments related to
unrealized adjustments on our Rainy River stream,
mark-to-market and the free cash flow royalty at New Afton.” These mainly non-cash
adjustments relate to the growth of then mines and the size of sureties needed to cover them
but only really affect the bottom line. In fact, NGD had a good Q2 and here’s the main overview
chart to prove it. Top line revenues of $198.2m beat our forecast by $4m or so, op-ex was in
line, DD&A slightly higher than expected. As a result, mine operating earnings came in at a new
recent record of U$51.8m.
NGD: Quarterly Earnings Overview
7
4.861
7.49
4.16 3.21
2.931
2.501
4.46
4.03-
3.241
7.98
25 6.0
5.821
2.66
6.04
7.12
7.371
7.68
7.94
3.73
9.891
3.79
8.05
8.05
9.461
9.39
1.54
9.52
2.891
2.59
2.15 8.15
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
-25
-50
91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2
$m
revenues
op-ex
deprec/deplet
Mine Op Earnings
source: company filings
That is the effect of the gold hedges coming off, indeed a look at the cash flow data show just
how much money NGD generated last quarter:
NGD: Cash generated from operations, per qtr
1.15 36
3.47
2.05
1.19
9.74 3.15 8.25
1.19
6.99
3.35
3.011
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2
U$m
source: company filings

That above chart does not speak of operational problems at NGD. With mine operating earnings
at 6c/share, it’s amusing to think this Tier 2 operating and profitable mining company with a
run rate of over 300k oz per year is currently trading at 4.5X Op EPS.
NGD: Operating earnings per share
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
-0.02
-0.04
-0.06
-0.08
8
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2
cents
source: company financials/IKNcalcs
But it’s only when we factor our forecasts for the next two quarters that the trade potential at
NGD shows up. Our model takes the same
cautious route as CEO Adams, adjusting
gold production lower and AISC higher but
even so, NGD is still set to make a lot of
money during the back half of this year.
The chart right shows our adjusted gold
production forecast for Rainy River this year
and even if the East Lobe grade fails to
meet resource expectation, there’s no
reason to expect a massive production hit.
Instead, we guide 70k oz this quarter and
80k oz in 4q21, which would get NGD to an
estimated total of 261,000oz for Rainy River
in 2021, some 14k off original guidance.
Then if we assume current gold prices and a global U$1,300/oz AISC for the ounces…
NGD: Quarterly Earnings Overview
4.861
7.49
4.16 3.21
2.931 2.501
4.46
4.03-
3.241 7.98
25 6.0
5.821
2.66 6.04
7.12
7.371
7.68
7.94
3.73
9.891
3.79
8.05
8.05
9.461
9.39
1.54 9.52
2.891
2.59
2.15 8.15
712
011
55
25
242
521 55
26
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75 50
25
0
-25
-50
91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3 tse12q4
NGD: Rainy River gold production
$m
revenues
op-ex
deprec/deplet
Mine Op Earnings
source: company filings
…this company still makes plenty of money. Mine Operating Earnings would still come in at
U$114m over the six months to 2022 and it is that, rather than any cosmetic bottom line net
earnings result, that will drive this growth story into 2022. Yes, we agree costs are set to rise..
51915 60115 33694 12246 43766 31565 36155 00007
00008
OzAu
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000 30000
20000
10000
0
4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21
source: NGD filings, IKN ests

NGD: op-ex
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
9
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3 tse12q4
$m
Source: company filings, IKN ests
…but NGD is now unhedged on its gold and AISC will only remain high as long as capex works
continue. Free cash flow is strong and what’s more, thanks to the recent debt refinancing its
previously typical $15m/qtr servicings are down to less than U$9m/qtr.
Additionally, we believe its cash flow and treasury to be sufficient to cover obligations and move
NGD into 2022. One of the company’s main objectives at the start of 2021 was to complete its
capex build-out at Rainy River and as at end 2q21, NGS reported consolidated spend on
sustaining capital at U$49.2m and growth capital spend of U$33.2m, a total of U$82.4m. By
checking back, the NGD 2020 MD&A year-end outlook budgeted total for these capital items at
the start of the year at between U$220m and U$305m, which means that to keep up with the
budget NGD needs to invest at least U$140m in its assets during 2h21. We know NGD has cut
back on the speed of its budget spend, but we should still expect the company to make the
bottom end of the range, which allows us to move to the company balance sheet and make
estimates on how its positive cash flow will offset capital spend in the next two quarters.
Balance sheet items: The easy one is liabilities, as now NGD has its refi in place the books
are going to be regular. There is the non-cash upward adjustment on closure costs and the
stream obligation added this quarter, it’s minor next to the whole.
NGD: Liabilities
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3 tse12q4
U$m other LT liabilities
LT debt
current liabilities
source: company filings
What matters to this growth story is assets, which need to keep growing. We witness the
money going into its capital works here as cash is changed to fixed asset, but while that
process continues we need to keep a close eye on liquidity:
NGD: Assets
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3 tse12q4
U$m fixed
other current
cash & eq
source: company filings

These charts provide the results of the trade-off. Previously we had no worries about the
liquidity levels expected in 3q21 and 4q21, so we need to see how the newly projected lower
production and higher costs sit with capex obligations. By assuming operations as per the
model (above) then a capex spend totalling U$140m for the next two quarters, the model gives
this for cash treasury and working capital:
We now forecast cash at end 2021 at around U$80m, then working capital at $170m and of
those two, working cap is the most important
because NGD is not short of liquidity. Thanks to
its currently undrawn U$350m revolving loan
facility the company is not facing any sort of
cash crunch and once the East Lobe mining
conditions are better understood, there’s every
reason to expect them to guide a reasonable
production number for 2022. So before arriving
at the most important chart in today’s analysis,
we check in on shares out and find them all-but
unchanged, at 680.8m
Since biting its bullet and making the necessary
impairments on its Rainy River capex, book value at NGD has remained reasonably steady and
more affected by the addition of non-cash liabilities than operation issues. As at 2q21 it stands
at U$818.8m, or U$1.20 pr share.
NGD: Book value
10
3.959 4.929 3.398 5.759 3.169 8.839 7.738 5.648 3.948 5.048 8.818 048 078
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3 tse12q4
NGD: Working Capital per qtr
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
U$m
source: company filings, NYSE data
That means this:
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3 tse12q4
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
NGD: Cash treasury per qtr
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3 tse12q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
800 NGD: Shares Out
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim

2.2 NGD: Price/Book ratio
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
11
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 WON
source: company data, NYSE, IKN calcs
People, this is crazy. We watched in 2020 as NGD became the turnaround trade of the year and
got itself out the penalty box. It did so by executing on its plan, improving the company debt
position and balance sheet and extinguishing hedge obligations on its gold. With 1.0X the
classic benchmark for the dysfunctional company, NGD moved higher and by the end of the
year could command the type of price/book reaction more typical in its sector.
In one fell swoop, the market has removed all that advantage! If you were to believe that
chart, NGD hasn’t done anything to improve its situation, is still swamped with debt, still has
hundreds of millions to spend to get its mine right. The selling we saw last week was surely
stoked by the wider bearish view of PM miners, but it was still clearly overdone and NGD
doesn’t deserve to be this low. Far from dysfunctional these days, it has the strength to take a
weak quarter of financials and shrug it off. Liquidity is good, free cash flow is good, and aside
the grade issues at East Lobe, operations are on track.
NGD’s P/Bv should not be under 1.0X and the above chart is the real canary in the coalmine,
demonstrating the selling of the last two weeks isn’t just overdone, but way overdone. Even a
reasonably modest 1.2X P/Bv aims us to a significant trading win, as it represents an upside of
40.2% to this weekend’s U$1.07 share price. That’s a modest target too, an NGD that rebounds
from acute overselling and finds a new and reasonable level to value its fundies.
Discussion and conclusion: There’s an obvious trade win potential here at NGD, the selling
that was already overdone last weekend accelerating over the week. This weekend’s U$1.07 is
an obvious bargain, as despite the tighter look to financials in the next two quarters NGD has
everything it needs to execute on corporate plans. This is not a dysfunctional company, the
price/book indicates severe overselling and even a reasonable return to a more modest
valuation will float the share price back to U$1.50 sooner rather than later. I’m not going to
trade this as currently, I cannot look past Argonaut Gold (AR.to), but the opportunity at NGD is
obvious. The market wasn’t paying attention, only one analyst was on the call (Anita Soni at
CIBC) and with nobody to lead, a nervous
herd made for the door. NGD is now very
cheap and the risk is to the upside, consider
this an active fliptrade opportunity in the days
and weeks to come. We leave you with the
five year price chart for the stock, a reminder
that even when this company was a truly
horrendous financial and operational mess, it
got a better valuation than the lean and
financially robust NGD of today.
This is way too cheap.

Stocks to Follow
A combination of Afghanistan, Covid-Delta and Taper Tantrums was too much for an already
beleaguered mining sector and as a result, we may have finally got our sentiment washout day
behind us. GDX dropped 6.0%, GDXJ by 7.4% and we didn’t escape the carnage, either. A full
14 of our 17 open positions lost ground last week, with just Argonaut (AR.to) and Mene
(MENE.v) bucking the trend as winners, then the “special case” Minera IRL unchanged at 8c
since last weekend. This desk, however, claims to have missed to worst of the losses thanks to
Top Picks that lost just a penny or two. The biggest hits came at QC Copper (QCCU.v down
16.7%) and Copper Mountain (CMMC.to down 16.2%) but even here, the clue is in the
corporate title. Copper’s decent rebound since Thursday should see those rebound next week
and I cannot but help but feel “glass half full” about the current market, from precious to base
metals the miners look fundamentally cheap.
We remain at 17 open positions, two over our self-imposed limit for a couple of weeks longer.
This portfolio will be pruned to size by the end of September. With just five of them in the
green, you’d think I’d be thoroughly ashamed by now.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.56 166.7% $1.14 tgt Aug'20, #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.60 -27.7% $1.30 tgt on capex raise, Jul21
Recommended stocks (In order of preference)
Copper Mountain CMMC.to STR BUY C$3.51 18-Jun-21 C$2.95 -16.0% reaffirmed buy on strong Q2
Argonaut Gold AR.to STR BUY C$2.92 25-Jun-21 C$2.99 2.4% All right signs, avging up
Trilogy Metals TMQ BUY U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.87 1.6% Cu for 2021, going well
Amarillo Gold AGC.v BUY C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.265 -14.5% add at 30c/32c, capex NR soon
Strategic Metals SMD.v hold C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.295 -29.8% Canadian land bet/Value trap?
Excelsior Mining MIN.to BUY C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.56 -39.8% Delayed, but still great value
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v BUY C$0.68 16-May-21 C$0.57 16.2% Bet on big copper, pol risk ok
QC Copper &Gold QCCU.v BUY C$0.205 25-Apr-21 C$0.15 -26.8% Cu Jr, fast-tracking resource
Royal Road Min. RYR.v BUY C$0.155 17-Mar-19 0.26 67.7% Model paying off in Nica
Wolfden Res. WLF.v hold/sell? C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.18 -40.0% Zn trade needs to move soon
Great Bear Res GBR.v BUY C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$13.44 -15.1% Binary M&A trade, wait for print
Cartier Resources ECR.v hold/sell? C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.23 -28.1% Thinking of selling
Aurelius Min. AUL.v hold/sell? C$0.75 28-Jun-20 C$0.33 -56.0% has until its 43-101 to improve
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.08 -59.0% CEO change will move stock
Long-term non-mining hold
Mene Inc. MENE.v LT Hold C$0.68 6-Dec-20 C$0.85 25.0% LT bet, added again July'21
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Mining NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
2015 to 2020 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on just one or two of our covered stocks. Newsflow will improve with
12

momentum, as it always does:
Argonaut Gold (AR.to): The relative strength of AR was most impressive against the
headwinds of last week:
However and to my continued bemusement, this stock is still trading under C$3.00 and even
after its drop, NGD does not offer the same value as Argonaut this weekend.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): I’ve booked time with an increasingly busy CEO next week, who is on the
cusp of both building a mine and marketing it more seriously to the world. Post Labor Day
September will include n edition in which we get fully up to date on Rio2 Ltd.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Analysis of our other Top Pick trade, Minera Alamos (MAI,v) is
scheduled for next weekend. The company is set to post its 2q21 financials on Friday, that
should come with key forward guidance on Santana production and development at its other
projects. With the build period now ending, this desk will pay closer attention to its Top Pick
(and biggest personal position) going forward. Time to make me some money, Mr. Ramshaw.
The Copper Basket
After thirty-three weeks of 2021, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 20.59% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.08 107.53 1223.69 11.38 87.2%
2 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 1.81 207.5 612.13 2.95 63.0%
3 Oroco Res OCO.v 1.85 186.96 482.36 2.58 39.5%
4 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.25 87.737 342.17 3.90 20.0%
5 Western Copper WRN.to 1.57 135.798 272.95 2.01 28.0%
6 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.80 181.79 221.78 1.22 52.5%
7 Excelsior Min. MIN.to 1.12 273.585 153.21 0.56 -50.0%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.07 101.85 78.42 0.77 -28.0%
9 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.455 125.24 71.39 0.57 25.3%
10 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.115 438.56 67.98 0.155 34.8%
11 Doré Copper DCMC.v 1.00 53.304 42.11 0.79 -21.0%
12 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.45 68.281 37.55 0.55 22.2%
13 Chakana Cop PERU.v 0.60 111.41 36.77 0.33 -45.0%
14 US Copper USCU.v 0.105 87.53 12.69 0.145 38.1%
15 Chibougamau CBG.v 0.165 53.077 12.47 0.235 42.4%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 20.59%
A washout. Last week wasn’t the worst for The Copper Basket in 2021, but the 8.6% it lost was
across the board and symptomatic of a market giving up on copper trades wholesale. We had
13

zero week-over-week winner and just one stock remained unchanged (CBG.v), which means 14
losing stocks out of 15. Those losses were
mostly tidal in nature and inside trading 70% The Copper Basket 2021, weekly evolution
ranges, but there were big drops from the 60%
larger and widely traded Copper Mountain 50%
(CMMC.to down 16.2%), Solaris (SLS.to
40%
down 15.0%), Oroco (OCO.v down 8.8%)
30%
and Western (WRN.to down 7.8%). As they
20%
happen to be what pass for hot stocks in
this sub-sector, the message is once again 10%
that of nervous money running away (and 0%
buying some gold bullion, perhaps).
A different chart for copper-the-metal this
week, we lay down the spot price (HG00) against the main copper producers’ ETF (COPX) and
see how the metal found buyers long before miners; spot copper bottomed on Thursday
morning, while copper stocks were still being sold down at the close Friday.
Macro news was dominated by China and a perceived slow down in its economic recovery.
Whether true, false, caused by climate change or Delta Variant, the July 2021 industrial
production reading of +6.4% was bad news for a market expecting 8.3%. Equally, retails sales
missed by a full 3% (+8.5%) and, surprise surprise, China immediately blamed the rise in world
commodity prices for its sagging data. Here’s how Reuters put it (2):
The contract hit its lowest in over four months on Wednesday, as weak economic data from top
consumer China, rising coronavirus cases globally and expectations U.S. Federal Reserve
officials will reduce bond buying hurt metals.
Meanwhile, the always readable Andy Home (3) has got over his scrap metal issues and is back
in the bullish camp on copper. Here he finds agreement with The Vampire Squid (as do I):
Goldman Sachs, which is firmly in the bull commodities camp, suggests that while
Chinese demand has got copper to where it is, struggling supply will provide the next
lift in price.
The tension between macro negativity and micro positivity is “particularly acute for
copper”, given a structurally challenged supply chain, the bank argues. (“A bumpy road
higher”, Aug. 16, 2021)
Copper dropped on geopoliticals last week, they will blow over. Now our regular weekly
segment on world copper inventories, data supplied by Chile’s Cochilco:
 World aggregate copper stocks added 9,738 metric tonnes (mt) last week, with LME
adding more than SHFE took away. This weekend’s total is 380,411mt.
 SHFE saw more unseasonal draw downs, with 7,457mt leaving already empty
warehouses and brining the aggregate total to 85,575mt. Last week I mentioned that
14
ts1
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t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22
source: IKN calcs

some warehouses may literally run out of physical stock by end December, in fact some
of the most popular and best located houses are reportedly already dry of copper.
 The LME added 15,800mt, with copper coming of warrant in Holland and Germany. This
weekend this total stands at 251,450mt and China is trying to convince the world that
this number is more important than the SHFE empty shelves.
 At the Comex, a reasonable 1,395mt addition puts total stocks at 43,386mt.
Here’s the Shanghai-only inventories chart:
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
15
31'13ceD ht9 ht81 ht72 ht5tco ht41 dn22 5102
dr3yam
ht21 ht02 ht92 ht7bef ht71 ht62 ht4peS ht31 ht92 ht9 ht81 ht72 7102
ht5von
ht41 ht52 ht01 ht91 ht82 9102
ht6naJ
ht71 ht62 ht4gua ht31 dn22 0202ts1ram ht01 ht91 ht72 0202ht6ced ht41 ht52 1202ht4luj
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
The tighness of that chart may be obscured by the dip late last year, as it’s the timing that is of
most concern. SHFE stocks do bottom out regularly and rebound, but this time the bottom is at
least two more months away. I see no reason to pick on any single basket stock this weekend.
The Producer Basket
After thirty-three weeks of 2021, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 17.73% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out Mkt Cap (U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 59.89 805 45.36 56.35 -5.9%
2 Barrick GOLD 22.78 1778.04 34.19 19.23 -15.6%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 70.51 244.187 13.70 56.12 -20.4%
4 Kirkland Lake KL 41.27 267.056 10.10 37.83 -8.3%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 7.34 1261.07 7.20 5.71 -22.2%
6 Endeavour Min EDV.to 29.62 252.568 5.90 28.02 -5.4%
7 Pan American PAAS 34.71 210.262 5.03 23.93 -31.1%
8 B2Gold BTG 5.60 1051.697 3.86 3.67 -34.5%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 8.75 392.739 2.86 7.28 -16.8%
10 Pretium Res PVG 11.48 187.833 1.79 9.51 -17.2%
Prices in U$ except EDV.to (share price in CAD$ and mkt cap in approx USD) Port. avg -17.73%
Please feel free to add “He Held Through August 2021” to my litany of trading and strategy
errors when investing in mining stocks. The Black
Swan was Afghanistan and the uniform way in which
our ten Producer Basket stocks dropped was once
again indicative of the plug being pulled on GDX/J by
the larger insto money. All ten of our charges lost
ground, but most of them dropped by the same “tide
going out” 4% to 6%. The outliers were biggest loser
Pan American Silver (PAAS down 9.7%) and least

worst Pretium (PVG down 3.5%). Here’s a chart to remind us of the dynamic of last week’s Fear
Trade, the Afghanistan collapse setting off a chain of geopolitical events that affected most
sectors in the way they normally do. For our sector that means gold got support while gold
stocks were sold down. As for our basket average, we did less worse than the GDX benchmark
(which dropped 6.0% on the week), that means the gap is down to 3.38% and down by half.
Hope springs eternal.
The 2021 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and 20%
comparative to GDX control
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
Pretium Resources (PVG): Much like Argonaut Gold (AR.to) last week (see ‘Market
Watching’), Pretium did justice to our bullish analysis of its 2q21 numbers by showing relative
strength to peers, its 3.45% drop on the week was the least worst of our ten. A nice way of
saying that you lost money, but not quite as much as your friends’ stocks did .
Two good weeks for Pretium, with first a good earnings quarter and last week holding onto the
gains in the teeth of a very rough market.
The Tiny Dogs
After thirty-three weeks of 2021, the Tiny Dogs show a gain of 4.62% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Antler Gold ANTL.v 0.205 61.348 5.83 0.095 -53.7%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.045 163.975 7.38 0.045 0.0%
Constantine Met CEM.v 0.17 45.4 25.42 0.56 229.4%
Contact Gold C.v 0.115 240.757 18.06 0.075 -34.8%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.22 40 6.00 0.15 -31.8%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.045 230.79 16.16 0.07 55.6%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.240 106.241 9.56 0.09 -62.5%
QC Copper QCCU.v 0.315 105 15.75 0.15 -52.4%
Red Pine Expl RPX.v 0.400 95.806 41.20 0.43 7.5%
Warrior Gold WAR.v 0.090 91.818 7.35 0.08 -11.1%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 4.62%
16
ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22
The 2021 Producer Basket: Percentage difference between
GDX benchmark and basket (negative = IKN basket ahead) 8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
basket 1.0%
gdx control 0.0%
source: Google, IKN Calcs ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22
source: IKN calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq/TSX data

This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are
down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too 20% Tiny Dogs, 2021 weekly tracker
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have 16%
teams or people with good peer reputations. 12%
8%
4%
There were just two losers from out ten Tiny Dog
0%
stocks, but as the included the biggest mover in
QC Copper (QCCU.v down 16.7%) it was enough -4%
to make the overall average negative. Four of -8%
the stocks were unchanged (BAY.v, C.v, MTU.v, -12%
WAR.v) and the other four were small winners
(ANTL.v, CEM.v, GDP.v, PRG.v).
Precipitate Gold (PRG.v): Please find in ‘Market Watching’ below a longer strategy note on
PRG, which takes into account the news last week that it is moving operations to
Newfoundland, Canada. Here we take a look at just the share price action…
…and PRG longs must feel frustrated with this market, at another moment in the cycle the
Tuesday action to 12c would have been the beginning of a rally rather than the end of it. As it
happens, PRG managed to add just 0.5c on the week despite this company-changing news,
which is why it’s getting more column inches in Market Watching.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It is possible that in the
future I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, but at the moment both my opinion and my wallet are strictly
neutral.
Regional politics
Peru this coming week
With Peru’s bizarre political battle now on hold until August 26th, I’m taking a week off from all
regional politics today. Instead a reminder of what we can expect when PCM Bellido appears
before Congress to ratify his cabinet. He will be voted down and therefore forced to resign, it’s
17
ts1
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t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

at that point we’ll find out which way Pedro Castillo jumps.
 He goes for another hard Left wing radical, the battle begins in earnest
 He goes for a moderate or compromise Prime Minister, calmer waters arrive early
I’d like to think he’s smart enough to want to keep his job and if so, he must choose the latter.
Expect a full report next weekend, as this key political choice will show us what to expect from
Peru in the near and medium-term future. This weekend it’s been all the Minera IRL and that’s
more than enough Peru for anyone.
Market Watching
Tracking the Buy Peru call
We’re keeping an eye on this and so far, my call to buy back Peru has been plain wrong. The
country didn’t escape the EM selling last week, either:
No need to dwell on this chart today, it will appear next weekend and I’ll continue to track my
bad call with the greatest of interest, as long as it’s merely too early.
A chart revision on Kuya Silver (KUYA.cse)
This stock keeps cropping up in editions of the Weekly because of its potential for a fliptrade
win. The main recent Kuya Silver (KUYA.cse) note was in IKN632, the main event Fundies
piece dated July 4th, “Kuya Silver (KUYA.cse): Your officially sanctioned IKN summer silver
trade”. At that point we we interested and followed the stock for two or three more weeks in
the ‘Market Watching section but without buying or pulling the trigger. More recent coverage
has been to the negative side and still mno re-purchase made, but after the slide in silver last
week, today’s is more optimistic. We are about three comparative price charts today, with KUYA
mapped over different time periods next to sector benchmark ETF for silver stocks, SIL.
Beginning with the longview…
…KUYA IPO’d in October last year and went on a classic exploreco round trip. However, in
18

KUYA’s case we also have that clear moment when people walked away, the start of May when
the company announced its incursion into Canadian exploration and ran the dilutive bought
deal. So after a year the company is basically back to square one, now we cut to more recent
times and this two month chart, which takes in the current period of interest:
KUYA has shown volatility to peers on a couple of occasions this summer, both those moves
coming at the end of the months (which could be coincidence). Even when sat next to the
volatile silver sector, KUYA shows high beta to market and that chart, while interesting for
traders, smacks of a stock that requires a strong stomach. Finally, we get up to date with the
last ten days of KUYA trading:
The selling in the silver sector last week was not limited to KUYA, but once again we saw extra
volatility from this junior and in particular, elevated volumes during the selling last week. This
jives with the impression gained from the (nearly) 12 month chart at the top of this note, that
moment when the patient, longer-term holder throws in the towel after riding the entirety of
the annoying round trip.
Bottom line: Last week looks like a sentiment washout, which makes KUYA an attractive
speculation vehicle for the weeks ahead as long as you agree with these three statements:
 KUYA is financially solid, active at its projects, marketing and NRs post-Labor Day
 KUYA provides extra trade potential due to its volatility
 Silver the metal is oversold and will now rebound
I am not going to buy KUYA in the week to come, because I only agree with two out of those
three statements. Silver bullion is the black box and over both long-term and near-term, your
author prefers owning gold to silver. However, you have the right to disagree with me on that
and if you do the entry price at KUYA is good this weekend. The round-trip is done, sentiment
washout has either just happened or is happening and with Labor Day upon us, it’s reasonable
to assume more market noise from a stock that uses the marketing channels.
Precipitate Gold (PRG.v): A corporate pivot trade
We may need to reassess Precipitate Gold (PRG.v), the Dom Rep exploreco that most interests
this desk before the rest of the market does. PRG has been focused on Dom Rep for many
years and betting on success from its wholly-owned and JV projects, but last week things
19

changed.
We begin with a little recent history and the last information received on Ponton, its 100%
owned project that was reportedly stopped from drilling by protesters in May. PRG told us about
it on May 13th in this NR (4), and if you want to read the relevant passage it’s here, but…
At the Company’s 100% owned Ponton Project, drilling remains on hold as the Company
continues to address certain local community concerns related to mineral exploration and mining.
Concurrently, the country is in the midst of a broader national dialogue on facilitating the potential
growth of the mineral resource sector while ensuring responsible environmental practices and
meaningful community engagement. The Company continues to monitor the situation and will
advise on the status of future work at such time as more clarity is attained.
..it says “nothing happening until further notice” and we’ve had no further notice. As for the
Pueblo Grande JV project with Barrick (GOLD), adjacent to the Pueblo Viejo mine, as mentioned
at the time in Tiny Dogs, they got dusters. PRG Pres/CEO Jeffrey Wilson put on the required
brave face and noted the JV would now explore other areas of the large land package:
"Although results from Barrick's first phase of drilling did not return significant
mineralization, this initial phase of work only focused on a small fraction of the Pueblo
Grande project, immediately west of Barrick's mining pits. Barrick's continued
exploration within additional areas of the project speaks to Pueblo Grande's
prospectivity and ongoing exploration potential. We're pleased to see Barrick furthering
its exploration efforts toward zones where significant near-surface gold and silver
mineralization have been reported in historic drill assays.”
That, along with knowing the way JV operator Barrick works, means baseline geological work
and exploration to zero in on drill targets that may be budgeted by Pueblo Viejo’s Geology
department for the 2022 season and even then, PRG has no advanced reporting rights and
(ostensibly at least) finds out results at the same time as us, from Barrick.
Pueblo Grande JV is the potential box of surprises that it has always been. However, timelines
now have to re-set to zero and nobody should hold their breath for price catalyst from this end
of PRG. We agree it still has the potential for a massive win for the company on just one drill
hole, particularly from the current price deck, but in late 2021 the screams of “dead money”
drown out potential.
As such, it was no surprise to read this on August 17th (5):
Precipitate Secures Rights to Acquire 100% of Motherlode Gold
Project in Newfoundland, Canada and Reports Board Changes
As for the proposed board changes, that’s not as dramatic as the title might suggest. Let’s start
by saying this as diplomatically as possible, considering Aside his undoubted geology skills,
Quinton Hennigh has developed impeccable business timing skills and has moved up the
corporate ladder just as the Novo Resources (NVO.to) story faces the cruel reality of financials.
Part of Hennigh’s life-reorganization is to resign from a raft of boards and that includes PRG,
where he has now left the chair. The apparent abandonment of PRG is therefore a minor
concern, the more pressing issue is the company’s decision to pivot to Newfoundland. It makes
sense, as PRG is one of those companies with plenty of geological know-how on board and also
plenty of marketing connections, willing to use the pay-to-play world of Vancouver promo to
further its cause (with Eric Coffin being very close to this and other Dom Rep explorecos). It
also makes sense because Newfoundland is suddenly hot and Dom Rep most definitely is not.
After one year of government, the Abinader admin has been long on promises and very short
on action to improve the lot of mining exploration and development in the country, with the
overriding social factor being protests against the presence of the industry. PRG’s patience has
run out, they are going somewhere else and frankly, who can blame them? Up to and including
last week, anti-mining protesters were doing their thing outside the Presidential Palace against
the proposed tailings dam enlargement at Barrick Pueblo Viejo (6), the law reforms promised in
August and then re-promised in November have disappeared in Congressional committee.
This makes the company newly interesting as a speculative trade. It’s not tough to work out the
20

plan, they are going to raise money on the back of the new Newfie projects and then drill them,
hoping to become the next New Found Gold (NFG.to). They will be able to lean on their
undoubted geological expertise, but PRG won’t be shy about using “high traffic channels” to get
the word of its pivot out, either. And the cod’s tongues are better in St. John’s than Santo
Domingo, of course.
These trades are about predicting corporate moves as a company re-works its structure. That’s
not an easy one, risk abounds in timing, or how they decide to fund the new structure. I’ve
bored you all with this chart before as well, the ten year daily of PRG that shows how it
manages to return to the same re-set line, time after time, then spike higher on renewed
speculative interest. There’s nothing particularly dirty going on here, just a company and a
team that knows how to survive in the exploreco space.
Harte Gold (HRT.to): An eye on the side bet
A brief update note on this near-term “side bet” that won’t make the main Stocks to Follow list,
HRT has seen volume and interest in the story tail off in August. That makes sense, HRT has
until end September for a deal with interested parties and there won’t be much noise until then.
At 6.5c this weekend (my entry price), it’s a moot point for me whether it decided to spring
from a 6.5c baseline or from 8c, as I’m not buying any more and it will remain a small trade.
But for others, a buy at 8c and a sale at 10c would net you a 25% pre-commish profit, but
that’s more like 50% if you manage to buy at 6.5c and sell at the same price.
This is a flip trade, it’s speculation on a good outcome to the refi talks, it’s risky, it’s small and it
won’t be able to net the profits that are potentially on offer at a re-worked Minera IRL. On that
subject…
21

Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): Concerned Shareholders (1)
As this may become a series, a suitable title. In last week’s note, “Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): Why
Diego Benavides must go”, (also published on the blog (7)), we outlined the reasons to replace
leadership at Minera IRL. In the post “Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): The way forward for
shareholders” (8) posted a day later, I asked for those wishing to become part of a Concerned
Shareholder (CS) effort and pledge their shares. This Sunday afternoon in this update post (9) I
announced that over 50 people had already written in, pledging over 25m votes. A most
impressive start and as some of you know, I answered most of the mails with messages along
the lines of “let’s make your shares worth 30c” (apologies if I didn’t reply to yours, they tend to
come in flurries). That brings us up to date with all (I hope), now for contents of today’s note:
 This weekend I arranged a meeting with MIRL, which happens tomorrow
 An outline the value to be had from taking back control of MIRL
 Regarding the formation of the Concerned Shareholder committee
 Personal matters
Final part of the preamble: Please note that today’s note will make the open blog on Monday or
Tuesday as this only works by being as transparent as possible. In a normal situation where a
board’s direction is contested, opposing camps will try to retain as much information in order to
gain strategic advantage. Not here, the last thing we need to do is go down exactly the same
rabbit hole as the people running this company (and those who came before), therefore the
way forward is to explain, publish and make clear to everyone, friends and enemies alike, what
we want to do and how we are looking to do it. We begin.
A meeting with MIRL tomorrow
This weekend I can report some progress; I’ve managed to arrange a meeting with an official
representative of Minera IRL (not CEO Benavides). The meeting happens tomorrow Monday at
which they will hear my questions and, hopefully, provide answers. I will go into the meeting
with an open mind and with relevant questions prepared. However, the plan is not to leave
empty-handed and as such, will request a gesture of good will from CEO Diego Benavides,
something that would allow us to engage him further and consider his plans for MIRL with more
seriousness. There is little to debate about the true circumstances of the appointments of Susan
Gabbie, Steve Ngatai and Pedro Valdez to executive positions of MIRL, but even if we go with
the pretence, they are still woefully unqualified and inexperienced for their assigned roles. No
matter the circumstances or whose friend or family connection, they should not be in charge of
this company or project and their presence is a waste of time and money. I will therefore ask
CEO Benavides to request the resignations of Susan Gabbie, Steve Ngatai and Pedro Valdez
from the company, effective immediately.
If he accedes to the suggestion, CEO Benavides would make the right tacit admission and do
himself a lot of good. For sure he won’t like the idea, but from our side of the fence an
admission of fault is long overdue. He needs to say or do something proactive, so if he truly has
a vision for Ollachea and MIRL’s future, it would allow dissenting shareholders (i.e. us) to take it
more seriously. Be clear, the high dollar salaries paid to Susan Gabbie, Steve Ngatai and Pedro
Valdez represent a lesser damage; the major issue is the certain failure of future company
strategy run by people who would slow the company down even further because, to use
something normally figurative, the people recently hired by MIRL literally do not know what
they are talking about. If the resignations of Susan Gabbie, Steve Ngatai and Pedro Valdez are
forthcoming, there would be reasonable cause for the CS group to engage CEO Benavides on
other matters before reaching the ultimate recourse of a proxy slate.
Bottom line: Getting a formal meeting with a person from Minera IRL is a step forward. At the
meeting, I will air shareholder grievances, listen to their replies and report back. I will also go
into the meeting with an open mind and allow the company its defence, but CEO Benavides
needs to understand some cold realities if he wants to remain in charge. His representative will
go back to CEO Benavides with the message that his unqualified, inexperienced close personal
friends must submit their resignations and in their place, we require competent mining
executives. I will, of course, write a brief report on the outcome of my meeting with the MIRL
22

official and send it to subscribers in a Flash update, tomorrow Monday evening.
Outlining the value
The target number in my replies to shareholders this week is not a pie-in-the-sky number or
some unrealistic target. In fact the contrary, because I base the case on the simplest of
scenarios. By assuming a value based on plain vanilla break-up and disposal, any other
opportunity adds value. And there are plenty of other way, as one large holder of MIRL shares
and a CS commented to me in a subsequent mail;
Actually, either 30 cents, or put in charge a committed, aligned, competent
management team. Have no problem with 10-15m stock options at a reasonable strike
price ($0.15?) with vesting conditions.
Indeed he is right. Our CS process cannot be simply about kicking out a bad apple, if we cannot
offer a viable and attractive alternative AGM/SGM the company will go back to square one. This
is why I suggested the scenario of Voluntary Bankruptcy Protection (VBP) last week. This
standard business mechanism then brings in a competent third party (The Receiver), who then
value its assets under different scenarios and trade-offs, considering offers made by others on
the assets. However VBP comes with “The B Word” so a word about that as well: Conceptually
at least, the move to put MIRL under Chapter11 (or equivalent of the US moniker) would freeze
the public company but not stop the company from doings things; Corihuarmi will mines,
profits are made, chauffeurs carry Diego Benavides to lunches etc. It would be a financials
“Pause” button, allowing the CS to make better decisions for its longer-term.
There is certainly value there, waiting to be realized. As outlined last week there are three
avenues of monetary value, so this weekend let’s sketch out a ballpark valuation as seen from
this desk: Your three MIRL assets are:
 Ollachea
 Corihuarmi
 Office and potential financial recoveries
Ollachea: We begin with the flagship As for Ollachea, what Minera IRL has today is 100% of
the project. However, it has to pay back a sum of around U$80m dollars and has a time limit
with which to do that, else lose the project completely. At that point Cofide gets its asset and
eventually the State vends it to a third party.
In effect, MIRL has a time-dated option on its own project; It pays $80m to Cofide, it gets its
$250m project back. If it doesn’t it won’t and so, with plenty of time
still left on the option, the option on Ollachea is worth money. As for
the prize, we can cut and slice Ollachea all sorts of ways and I too
agree its exploration and resource upside potential is tremendous,
but MIRL also gave us a recent (and very delayed) 43-101 compliant
resource number in the PEA update so it’s only fair to go with those:
At a 7% discount (generous) and U$1,600/oz gold (not a real
baseline price, but it’s okay I suppose) we get an after-tax NPV of U$189m, with the true value
probably somewhere between that and the pre-tax calculation. Again ni ballpark terms, if
Minera IRL realizes 50% of the NPV in the eventual sale of Ollachea, that means U$125m for
the company. Therefore and under normal circumstances, we can say MIRL has an option on
U$125m worth of assets, all it needs to do is pay U$80m, then sell the same day to the
developer at market price. MIRL nets U$45m, or CAD$0.23/share, we go home happy.
Realistically and once everyone is paid, a sales process unhindered by Diego Benavides could
realize around U$35m of value from Ollachea, selling it to a third party now and allowing it to
move on construction. MIRL would sell its option to the third party who gets about building its
mine. As U$40m represents a little over CAD$0.21 per share (231.15m s/o) this strategy would
likely provide immediate value. Such a deal would remove the welter burden of financial debt
23

from the company books, once and for all allowing the Corihuarmi cash flow to remain in
treasury. I’d agree that under the circumstances MIRL might not get all its normal market price,
but even a sale that nets MIRL U$30m and cleans the liabilities sheet puts 15c of equity value
onto shares.
Corihuarmi: At least four years of life left, makes 5k oz gold/qtr at U$1,200/oz AISC, all day.
The chances of longer life are a certainty, even at remnant production levels, because closure
costs start to loom large. A negative is the Peru law is likely to change on this matter soon, so
an eye on developments required.
Once again an official receiver makes sense, so let’s play at Receiver and try to put a value on
this moving target. Closure costs are something to keep in mind but aside that, it would surely
be of interest to a company like Kuya Silver (KUYA.cse), just down the road at Bethania, to pay
a reasonable amount for four years of guaranteed production and the opportunity to extend the
life of this mature mine even longer, as long as gold prices allow the low grade material to run.
At an AISC typically at U$1,200/oz there’s room for that to go higher and still make U$400/oz
from 5,000/oz of gold per quarter, that cash flow now free from any interest servicing on the
Cofide debt. Mine Operating Income of U$2 per quarter isn’t much, but it pays for the office at
MIRL with room to spare.
We also have a contemporary resource number for Corihuarmi, the recent resource update
(signed off by a staff member of Mining Plus because MIRL has nobody qualified to do so itself)
reporting an M+I resource of 13.8 million tonnes grading 0.21 g/t Au. That doesn’t sound like
much of a grade, but with mine site infrastructure bought and paid for years ago there’s not
much friction to operations at the mine. It also represents just over 93,000 oz gold, so if they
continue to extract that at current tonnages and we see production drop to the 5,000
oz/quarter level, there is already a minimum of four years of useful and profitable life at the
mine at an average grade of 0.21. Not bad for a mine that Daryl Hodges wanted to close down
in 2018 (and award a $10m contract to friendly third parties to do so).
In fact and on reflection, it’s interesting to reflect on how efficiently Corihuarmi has produced in
the last five years. It is notable how Diego Benavides can make things work when the result is
immediate cash flow that lands in the centre of the wholly-owned Kuri Kullu subsidiary.
However, work on the non-cash generating Ollachea project has been woefully lacking and
nothing ever seems to happen. But we digress: To wrap up and ball-parking a ticket price for
this asset, I see no reason why a Kuya Silver or similarly ambitious small juniors wouldn’t pay
U$20m for an unencumbered Corihuarmi, or around 10c Canadian per share.
Office and financial recovery: First we’re bound to see G&A drop significantly with the exit
of Diego Benavides, if only for the executive salary roster. After that, it will be up to the
Receiver to decide whether there is cause to seek recovery of payments to any previous third
parties. Peru law allows liquidation of assets to repay ill-gotten gains and at this point, I want to
underscore that even though our cause to remove CEO Benavides should be based on his own
clear and documented ethics and rules violations, there’s a potential for significant extra gains
for shareholders from a MIRL under VBP
Which brings up the subject of my blog post last week, as the real significance probably passed
you all by. The act of publishing my IKN638 note on the open blog is sure to have sent MIRL
into a tizzy, because from that moment the accusations are in the public realm. Under Peruvian
law, Diego Benavides now has the right to press defamation charges against me, no matter
whether my accusations are true or false. Indeed, this use of pre-emptive criminal charges is
often used in Peru as a threat or a weapon to try to shut down dissenting voices. Journalists get
remanded into preventative prison under this law, so it begs the question as to why he hasn’t
moved to do that yet. Maybe he simply hasn’t got the papers ready, but its also possible that to
do so and to prosecute me successfully, he’d be required to provide evidence of what really
goes on inside Kuri Kullu at any trial. For what it’s worth (and again, without trying to dramatize
the situation) I’m going into this with eyes wide open as to the scope of the potential legal
24

attacks, aware that I’m up against an expert in Peruvian law who has been through a very
similar situation in 2016. He knows the legal field and may know which levers to pull to stifle
any investigation and entrench himself even further. Again, I’m being very diplomatic with my
language here, ladies and gentlemen readers.
Wrapping up, CS thoughts, some personal thoughts
That’s about it for today, but a final subject needs airing and it would be remiss of me not to go
there. We have already seen how MIRL has tried to weaponize private exchanges, taking
messages wrote by me to people from previous personal relationships, then spinning them for
their ends. As it’s unlikely they’ll feel any pangs of morality about that and may be planning to
do so again, I suggest, though certainly do not insist, that I exclude myself from the formal
Concerned Shareholders list. For what it’s worth, my place could be taken by my father, who is
also a long-term shareholder of a modest position. He bought his while the stock was still on
the AIM and knowing my 84 year old dad (sharp, active, still drives his own car around, does
part-time work for fun and a successful businessman while I was a growing lad), he’d enjoy
kicking up a bit of a fuss against this scoundrel Benavides.
Be clear I am not trying to duck responsibility in the slightest; far from it, you have and will
have my full attention on this pressing matter that looks to return value to long-suffering
shareholders. I’ll represent people, publish stuff, go to meetings, talk strategy, available on
Zoom, reveal as much about the wrongdoings at the company to as wide an audience as
possible, etc, you’d also have my dad to give me a clip round the ear. However, when it comes
to the formal complaint we will require as much focus as possible, less opportunity for others to
muddy the waters. Even as a general principle, companies defending against CS actions will
look for ways to undermine their opponents’ message and calling into question credentials of CS
committee members is common. Without wanting to go into the details of my past life, memory
has faded of the mails or social media or whatever messages I have exchanged with them but
of one thing we can be sure: They could put together something that would make Cardinal
Richlieu proud*. Let me also state for the record that we’re not talking anything illegal or
immoral; Far from it, my inconvenience would be the embarrassment of seeing one’s past life
dredged over for the entertainment of others. Nothing new, nothing I couldn’t survive, but Ad-
Hom attacks on me may influence other shareholder votes if I were part of the official CS.
For example the fate of unknown large blocks of votes so let’s close with a word about Rio
Tinto (RTZ), who as many of you have noted are holders of 45m shares of Minera IRL
(MIRL.cse). That’s just under 20% of the company and obviously an important bloc with the
potential to decide any AGM, SGM or EGM one way or the other, so we need to consider what
might happen and how RTZ may vote. Under normal conditions, the default position of any
large company with a strategic position in any junior is not to get involved with its politics. This
certainly is the case with RTZ, they have been officially neutral at all MIRL AGM votes in recent
years and never vote their bloc. They’d probably like things to stay that way too, as this desk
now understands RTZ will not actively vote for a slate headed by Diego Benavides under any
circumstance, but they’d prefer to stay out of this and remain neutral. That allows them a
measure of ignorance as defence, therefore it’s in our best interest to make sure Rio Tinto
understands that rumours and off-record talk they may-or-may-not have heard about MIRL
over the years are now solidifying and likely to come to light. We the CS could explain to RTZ
they have what may be their final opportunity to be on the right side of what might expand into
a nasty case of corporate corruption in Peru. If RTZ were to back the CS position, they may
save themselves bad publicity later. Which reminds me, ironically at some point the new broom
of Left wing politics in Peru may even help RTZ come to the right decision.
In conclusion, please be clear as clear about the motives of this desk. As we need to be about
their motives for hiring Susan Gabbie, Steve Ngatai and Pedro Valdez to executive positions of
MIRL, please also understand the motives of Mark Turner as he investigates and reports on the
company. It is not a personal grudge, I’ve interacted with plenty of unpleasant C-suiters over
the years and they-and-theirs don’t haunt my life. Nor is this some grand theoretical fight for
justice, boldly led by a self-styled internet warrior with delusions of grandeur. No folks, this is
25

about the money. Be clear, we can change an illiquid share currently worth 8c to a 30c asset,
at which point we receive offers. This is about the money and I wouldn’t even be pestering
you with MIRL or mentioning my private world even a little, if it weren’t for the baseline
purpose of The IKN Weekly:
Junior miners. Buy low. Sell high.
We’ve been identifying trades for over 12 years and here’s another: At 8c we can make good
coin here, in the same way a company de-bottlenecks its operations and improves, so we
debottleneck this company and watch the share price go up. Of course, I am the first to
agree that knowing what I know about this company helps, but better understanding of an
issue is hardly a crime. There is a clear liability at Minera IRL and his name is Diego Benavides,
his overreach has allowed us to move for his dismissal with cause and, if the board refuses, we
vote them out as well. At that point and with the clear liability removed, we can seek the asset
value that we all know is there and claim it for ourselves because this is not vengeance, it is all
about the money. If it weren’t, this desk would not have received 50 mails pledging support
in the last 72 hours, with share pledges already over 25m. That is over 10% of the total shares
out, an amazing response and a humbling one too, because you out there also understand it’s
all about the money. To remain on-subject, CEO Benavides needs to understand that the
sorry state of MIRL is due to his failed leadership, a series of errors and misjudgements have
brought us to CS status and not merely the latest example of his personal largesse with the
property of others. He’s also a flagrant liar and liars should not run mining companies, yes
indeed, that is another very good reason to get rid of him. And once gone, we get to discover
the true extent of the “consultancy payments” and so forth that his nearest and dearest have
been enjoying and there may be more besides. We shareholders are simply better off without
him and, due to his latest crass executive error of hiring close friends in a Potemkin Village-style
attempt to ensure survival, we get to do just that simply and efficiently. There’s a reason for
the underlined and bold-typed phrases above, fellow shareholder.
*Some interesting history on the infamous Richlieu’s equally macabre “Give me six lines..” quote (10):
“…il trouveroit les moyens de lai faire son proces selon les manieres meme du cardinal, qui, a ce que j'ai oui
conter a ses amis, avoit accoutume de dire qu'avec deux lignes de l'ecriture d'un homme on pouvoit faire le
proces au plus innocent, parce qu'on pouvoit sur cette matiere ajuster si bien les affaires, que facilement on y
pouvoit faire trouver ce qu'on voudroit.”
“…he would find the means to prosecute him according to the methods of the cardinal himself, who, as I have
heard his friends tell, was in the habit of saying that with two lines of a man's handwriting, an accusation could be
made against the most innocent, because the business can be interpreted in such a way, that one can easily find
what one wishes.”
Conclusion
IKN639 is done, we end with bullet points:
 CEO Benavides has done nothing For Minera IRL and with no changes at the top, our
shares are destined for zero. We do not have to settle for that, instead and as a group,
we can add real monetary value to our shares. But first tomorrow and a real meeting,
as he may be willing to see reason. Expect a Flash Update tomorrow evening.
 New Gold (NGD) didn’t have a great quarter, neither did it guide well, but it shouldn’t
be this cheap. The overselling will be followed by a rebound.
 As we approach the September financing window there are no end of trade ideas at low
prices, as much to do with an awful August as the popularity of mining stocks.
However, the way gold, the dollar and the other safety valve devices traded means the
geopolitical road bumps will pass, as they always do.
 I have held through the Dog Days of August, which turned out to be the wrong
decision. However, as the idea was to grit teeth and expect better things from
September and onward it would be madness to sell after a Black Swan event. Even a
26

plan going badly is a plan, after all. Gritting my teeth for another week.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/08/11/new-gold-ngd-q2-2021-earnings-call-transcript/
(2) https://www.reuters.com/article/global-metals-idUSL1N2PR0C9
(3) https://www.reuters.com/article/us-metals-copper-ahome-idUSKBN2FH1LZ
(4) https://www.precipitategold.com/news/2021/precipitate-provides-drilling-update-from-pueblo-grande-and-ponton-
projects-dominican-republic
(5) https://www.precipitategold.com/news/2021/precipitate-secures-rights-to-acquire-100-of-motherlode-gold-project-in-
newfoundland-canada-and-reports-board-changes
(6) https://aimdigital.com.ar/nacionales/denuncian-contaminacin-de-acuferos-por-la-barrick.htm
(7) https://iknnews.com/minera-irl-mirl-cse-why-diego-benavides-must-go-from-ikn638/
(8) https://iknnews.com/minera-irl-mirl-cse-the-way-forward-for-shareholders/
(9) https://iknnews.com/minera-irl-mirl-cse-concerned-shareholder-update/
(10) https://history.stackexchange.com/questions/23785/what-did-richelieu-mean-by-his-six-lines-quote
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
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Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
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Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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