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The IKN Weekly
Week 632, July 4th 2021
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, Happy July 4th to The USA and all, Gold: Your gut against mine.
Fundamental Analysis: Kuya Silver (KUYA.cse) and its potential as summer silver trade.
Stocks to Follow: Argonaut Gold (AR.to), Cartier Resources (ECR.v), Wolfden Resources
(WLF.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Copper Mountain (CMMC.to), Amarillo Gold (AGC.v),
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v), QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), Aurelius Minerals (AUL.v), Mene
Inc (MENE.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, 2q21 review, US Copper (USCU.v), Chibougamau (CBG.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, 2q21 review, StreamerWatch.
Tiny Dogs: Overview, Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v).
Regional Politics: Chile and the royalty debate, Ecuador: Advantage mining companies,
Argentina: San Juan begins to step out, The Latin America Energy Forum 2021 goes metals
mining, This week in Peru, Brazil: Jair Bolsonaro’s ‘Super Impeachment’.
Market Watching: Deferred.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
“
In Today’s Edition
 It’s a review and critique edition of The IKN Weekly. Last week saw 2q21 fiscal close,
we’ve done both selling and buying recently and the market is moving. In light of such,
we take stock of what 2021 has done to date (easier), critique some of our current
open positions (also easy) and forecast the second six months of 2021 (more difficult).
To wit…
 …today’s intro considers the macro market for precious metals and confirms our bullish
stance toward gold, then Stocks to Follow casts a critical eye on more than one under-
performer on the list, Minera Alamos (MAI.v) one of them. Then the Copper Basket
(lots of charts) and Producer Basket (advantage base metals in 1h21) each carry
quarter-end review, plus notes and thoughts in other places as the classic summer
Doldrums period looms large.
 One of those thoughts is today’s main Fundies section, as we re-cast an eye over our
previously successful trade vehicle, Kuya Silver (KUYA.cse). For those of you looking to
trade around silver in the weeks to come, here’s my idea of a decent alternative at a
fair entry point.
 I’ve finally written a Regional Politics section that makes both Peru and Covid-19
secondary-level issues, that felt good.
Happy July 4th to The USA and all
Though you’ll probably not get to these words until the 5th or beyond, I hope you all had a good
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July 4th, US citizens and others. France will of course disagree, but there is no other national
festival that means as much to the rest of the world as today, this desk hopes you managed to
watch a few fireworks and eat something nice.
Gold: Your gut against mine
In the end, gold will make a fool of anyone holding regular opinions on the metal and its price
movements. True also for its acolytes, as those who trade silver, copper, platinum etc also
know to their cost, but gold is the daddy of them all. It is gold and only gold that will makes
total and abject fools of us all. This desk is a gold proponent at heart and strongly bullish in the
period since the Covid-19 pandemic. That, in general terms at least, has been the right side of
the trade and, as macro market conditions continue to favour the monetary metal, there’s still
no need to change stance. However, it still means I get to make wrong calls and choices about
gold on the way up and my opinions are only that, subjective calls. Due to this:
Over the medium-term, let’s say the last two years, gold bulls (me the fool) and bears (them
there fools) have been pontificating about something on a relatively calm and steady course. Of
course, most bragging rights are for bulls and GLD up 25% over two years is a win, but that’s
hardly Earth-shattering market action on display and the general indices have tended to out-
perform. Or this:
That’s ten years, versus the high-flying S&P500 and the US Ten Year Treasury Note, chosen as
it shows how gold works against the big financial levers. Over the long-term, gold is a boring
thing to own and quite right too; difficult to claim a role as an anchor of financial society and
show massive volatility (note to Bitcoin HODLers: one to think about), so that second chart suits
me fine as well. Goldbugs, hard money advocates and suchlike will laud gold for its quality of
independence (“No counterparty!”) but ithat very independence also means it will always be
behest to the movements of other world-level devices. That is the USD first and plenty of other
influences besides, but also means it’s impossible to be make objective assertions. So with
scene you’re your author will now expand with a…
 table-banging evangelization
 data-backed position
 considered opinion
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 educated guess
 gut feel
…and state his case, that gold is going higher in the near-term and last week was a bottom for
the metal. Facetiousness aside, we try to base our argument on as much factual evidence as
possible and there’s plenty of that at the moment. We’ve noted the Fed’s loose monetary policy
in several intro sections, one that suits gold in the long-term but, as the last couple of weeks
have shown, it’s also laid gold wide open to Fed jawbone and now you get my two cents as to
why that might be. The success (or failure) of the current MMT policy being implemented by
the Fed will necessarily show via a currency, the USD, that doesn’t move out of a set range,
while all around it policy remains loose enough to allow growth. In our case the “growth” is in
fact rebound but the case remains the same and JayPowell&Co don’t want a stronger dollar
crimping their style, neither will they allow its collapse against world peer currencies (or gold).
Put another way, MMT demands that the jawbone strategy the Fed has used from the year dot
and became more of an active weapon under Greenspan is now the protagonist tool, its
favoured method of BSsing the world about the future now takes preference over actual market
data and facts. In other words, in our weird post-fact 2021 world Jay Powell’s opinions are the
main driver of the world’s most important financial device. Like Musk and Bitcoin, but bigger.
That’s not such a bad thing either, Fed HeadPowell is a steady hand at the rudder and is more
likely than most to be able to keep the USD under his control (or spell, perhaps more accurate).
The Fed, or the US government* will announce decisions specifically designed to control the
USD as the real economy gears to, the
people in charge will in turn boost or hamper
the financial markets and either directly or
indirectly affect devices like gold or the
dollar. A thought which should warm the
hearts of mining stock traders, here right is
another chart on why. What matters for gold
isn’t the knee-jerk, for example when the
GDX dropped along with gold last week.
What matters is that gold isn’t going any
lower and that stocks are going higher,
because we trade the stocks and not the
metal. If the Fed changes course all bets are
off (of course) but tweaking potential rate
increases for 24 months in the future is
nobody’s idea of that, so while the long-term monetary policy of the Federal Reserve remains
conducive to the price of gold, the near-term the result shouting from that chart is a GDX that’s
going to have an awful lot of trouble going any lower. By the same token, its comparative
trading to GDX indicates the complex is now heavily oversold compared to the market, those
are the vacuums that don’t last long in the algo-world of Wall St.
With that, you are offered a page and a half of data-driven arguments that gold is going higher,
but ultimately all the above is as subjective as a gut feel. But gut feeling also matters and last
week, mine told me we saw a turn point in gold. Don’t expect me to quantify this because it’s
not possible, but the feeling I got on Tuesday was not pleasant, the one where the overselling
has gone too far for your taste. That, combined with the trend reversal midweek and the strong
rally Friday are the right signals, the market needed to get oversold and have a few retailers
throwing I the towel.
Finally, there’s one other back office indicator I’d like to add to the mix this weekend- It’s not
one I like to talk about much, as the signal would defeat itself if it became widely known, but
over time it’s become a quiet little unofficial indicator that has served this desk well and is all
about IKN Weekly subscription numbers. As time goes by and markets ebb and flow, so do
paying customers for this publication. They normal and doesn’t say much, but at certain key
turn points in the market a few things tends to occur to subscriptions: First there’s a period with
a slow drip of un-subscribers, then a burst of several unsubbers all at once, then nothing
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happens of a while before, seemingly out of nowhere and at once, a bunch of new clients show
(always welcome, thank you for joining). That’s what I’ve seen in the last few weeks in a
process that culminated over the last ten days; a flurry of new subscribers and from the looks
of the mail addresses, from people who spend more than two hours a week thinking about the
stock market. Put it all together the way you prefer, personally I can see no further than the
Fed and its loose policy, one that will surely benefit gold. However, getting the turn points is
also fun and profitable, it looks like we have one now. So says my gut, at least.
*Or any other world-level financial entity, for that matter.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Kuya Silver (KUYA.cse): Your officially sanctioned IKN summer silver trade
Friday saw the first day of trading in fiscal 3q21, which means we’re also into the classic
summer Doldrums period for stocks in general, which tends to magnify in our specialist sector
for junior miners. However, there’s always exceptions to the rule and thee are always stock that
give a run for the speculator’s money over the Northern summer period. Kuya Silver (KUYA.cse)
has the look of that type of trade, here in early July 2021. Its share price is off due to (mostly)
a financing and (partly) Peru political risk, but the company now has coffers full and is about to
report a large drill program, just completed at its flagship Bethania silver project in Peru. And
while (TL:DR) I’m not a buyer myself, that’s for my own personal preferences and portfolio
balancing reasons. This looks like a solid spec vehicle in the next three months and here are a
few pages to explain why.
We begin our revisit to KUYA with a look at the way its share price has traded since its IPO in
early October. As noted (rather brashly) on the chart, we managed to grab onto the run at
$1.66 on the way up and sold less than four months later on the house decision to liquidate
exposure to Peru. All fine, then
KUYA managed to ignore the weakness in many other Peru-exposed stocks for a longer then I
expected, but May and particularly June finally saw its price come off. Aside Peru, the main
catalyst for the slide came on news of an equity raise, but before KUYS could go to market it
was obliged to make one of those BCSC-demanded corrections to its filed 43-101 resource
count. It made the company look a little sloppy before raising money, but ultimately it makes
no difference whatsoever if this chart, as featured in the 43-101 correction NR (1)…
4

…is historic or compliant with CIMM. The company filed this 43-101 as a first pass resource
count upon which it would start to build its true resource, the one it believes to be there and
available to the drill bit. Therefore, for our purposes it’s s reasonable baseline upon which we
can expect more tonnage and contained ounces. Perhaps the most important information from
the table is that of silver grade, which has come in at the 15oz and 16oz levels we originally
expected when writing up and entering this stock as a trade. The trade decision was made in
back in IKN598, dated November 8th 2020, the fundies work on the stock covered two weeks
previously in IKN596 dated October (if you’d like a copy, you know my mail address).
The main reason KUYA bucked the trend of the Peru-exposed stocks and held its ground came
March, when he company announced a move into Canada by going JV with First Cobalt on
some of its properties. Firstly, any company that does business with FCO’s Trent Mell is doing
so with one of the most upstanding men in Canadian mining, therefore a feather in the cap for
David Stein and KUYA. That said, the deal looked expensive for such a young company and
along with the extra transaction costs that will show up in the 2q21 financials soon (CEO Stein
dixit), a real cash drain that I didn’t expect when signing on last year.
The KUYA plan is to make Kerr/Silver Kings its number two project and I suppose at some point
they will take advantage of the seasons in the hemispheres to keep drill and development news
coming non-stop, but for the time being CEO Stein assures me that Bethania in Peru will remain
the flagship and main concern. Kerr/Silver Kings ins’t going to be a major price driver in 2021,
so two visuals from the latest KUYA corporate presentation on the project are enough. The map
from slide 17 shows the layout, and how the Kerr property (KUYA can earn in to 100%) and the
larger Silver Kings property (KUYA can earn in to 70%) are located:
Then this insert from the next slide gives an idea of endowment and potential:
Those veins aren’t wide, but then again neither are those at Panuco and VZLA has built a
C$332m market cap company on top of them (to my continued amusement, but that’s another
story). KUYA ran a 3,000m drill program at Kerr and those results should be back from the labs
5

by the end of July, but Bethania is going to beat them to the gun and are more important
There’s clearly plenty of potential at Kerr/Silver Kings, but Bethania and its own upcoming assay
news and consequences are the reason to be interested in KUYA, summer 2021. That’s 36
holes, 5,000m and the NRs start very soon.
We move on and check over the clean and simple financials at KUYA, exactly what you’d expect
from a recently started junior exploreco. There’s not enough comparative data to talk in great
detail about its operational spend, but there are useful insights to be gained from staring at the
balance sheet charts and they start with assets (below left) and liabilities (below right):
KUYA: Assets per qtr
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
To the left, we see the cash raised in the recently closed financing, also how we expect some of
the overall cash burn to be expensed over time, while Bethania exploration and development is
capitalized. As for liabilities, they are small and we expect them to stay that way, an optimum
situation. I left the fast cash burn to these next charts below, they give a better clue to the
medium-term future at KUYA, as both cash treasury and working capital are expected to drain
fast.
On asking CEO David Stein this week on treasury position, I was told to expect as at 2q21 to be
close to the total recently raised. The company has its transaction costs coming out as well as a
higher G&A due to bigger office going forward, all that on top of activities at Bethania.
To the right (above), working capital expectations of this relatively fast cash burn makes the
situation clear. CEO Stein tells this desk the company has enough cash for its normal/planned
activity to last six to nine months. If it mothballs they could move that to 12 months but that’s
highly unlikely, this company is going the aggressive route and will use the capital markets
accordingly.
As for shares out, they are already up to 44.5m shares out and for future calculations, this desk
uses 45m for current numbers and the assumption of 110m shares out once Bethania is funded
and operational, further down the line and not in this chart (right).
6
02q3 02q4 12q1 tse12q2 tse12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1
C$m KUYA: Liabilities per qtr
fixed 5.0
4.5 other current 4.0
cash
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
source: company filings
02q3 02q4 12q1 tse12q2 tse12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1
source: company filings, IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT debt current debt
KUYA: Cash Treasury per qtr
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
02q3 02q4 12q1 tse12q2 tse12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1
source: company filings. IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
KUYA: Working Capital per qtr
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
02q3 02q4 12q1 tse12q2 tse12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

55 KUYA: Shares outstanding
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
7
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 tse12q2 tse12q3
source: company filings, IKN ests
The bottom line to the KUYA financials: They are straightforward and simple, but even at this
early stage KUYA is showing how fast it will run through treasury. That’s is a double-edged
sword of course, but it suggests the company will take an aggressive stance in its upcoming
promotion and marketing.
Reasons to speculate now: In turn, that’s almost certain to be based on the next and most
obvious catalyst, the drill results from Bethania. With a view to resource confirmation as well as
expansion in all directions, KUYA has recently finished putting 36 (thirty-six) holes into its
flagship project. As noted above, results of the 5,000m of core begin to flow in the very near
future. As for what type of price move KUYA could make on good news, first and foremost
revisit the price chat above. With the latest financing now closed, as well as two new officers on
board and options granted to a whole range of insiders and consultants just two weeks ago, the
stock is primed to run. As for how much, the potential offered by Bethania is based on the cash
flow it could generate from a 500tpd mine running 15oz
silver (plus credit metals). I’m not going to re-tread all of
IKN596 and the ballpark work we did on a 500tpd silver
mine at Bethania, please refer to that edition for details.
However, we’ll do a tease via this visual (right) from IKN596
and state for the record that eight months later, I stand by
the model as a reasonable first pass.
However, we do know more now and there are thee major inputs that have to change for a
final target price today (if we were to set one, which I’m loathe to do). For the C$3.70 price
target in IKN596 we used $20/oz silver, assumed KUYA had 80% of Bethania and assumed 60m
shares out. All those numbers are now out of dates, and the heavier than expected dilution only
gets partial reprieve from using a U$25/oz silver price. On the other hand, full ownership of the
asset is a clear positive in both economic and optics and we welcome the news KUYA now owns
all of Bethania. That will add value over the long-term, but we’re not going to change the
multiple afforded to the cash flow model for the time being.
We therefore change just three variables and when we do the following happens to the target
price: All other inputs left unchanged except a) 100% ownership b) U$25/oz silver price
assumption c) shares out to 100m.
Sales & earnings model U$/oz Ag prices Target price & valuation data for KUYA.cse based on
Ag spot (U$) $15/oz $20/oz $25k/oz $30/oz 500 tpd model year economics
Sales (U$m) 48.3 60.1 71.7 85.7 12-month target $3.54 assumes 100% of Bethania
Upside to target 114% and 8x FCF on U$25/oz Ag
EPS 0.06 0.14 0.21 0.30 Mkt cap (CAD$m) $74 Enterprise value $67
FCF 0.20 0.28 0.35 0.44 P/sales ($15/oz) 1.24 EV/sales ($15/oz) 1.11
P/E ($15/oz) 27.2 EV/EBITDA ($15/oz) 3.1
P/E ($20/oz) 12.0 EV/EBITDA ($20/oz) 2.0
P/E ($25k/oz) 7.7 EV/EBITDA ($25k/oz) 1.5

The model’s C$3.54 target price represents upside of 114% to this weekend’s C$1.65. I would
certainly accept the counter-argument that due to KUYA’s longer-term outlook at Bethania we
could cut down that 8X FCF assumption, but is wouldn’t come down by much as silver stocks
tend to command far higher multiples to earnings (and I don’t really understand why, even
after all this time). There’s certainly more than enough slack in this stock price to see KUYA
move back up in to the mid-$2.50s again without much trouble, a good return on the current
drill assays plus momentum at market would be all that it takes.
Today’s KUYA represents solid risk/reward value in the silver space and there really aren’t many
silver stocks to fit that bill. With drill catalyst news coming up and a company that’s sure to
promote hard in order to raise more cash at a non-dilutive price, KUYA fits the bill as a
speculative vehicle in the ever-popular silver exploreco sub-sector. I’m not setting a formal price
target, nor am I a buyer myself, but a move
back to $2.50 on improved volume and
market momentum wouldn’t be at all
surprising, as long as the pending Bethania
drill assays deliver the goods. From this
weekend’s C$1.65, that represent a 51%
upside and enough to whet the appetite of
any silverbug looking to flip a stock. The
wrap-up is a comparative chart, 2021 YTD,
of KUYA next to proxies for silver bullion
(SLV) and sector peers (SIL). That’s
oversold.
Stocks to Follow
Last weekend, we noted how interest in mining stocks rose as the previous week wore on, so at
face value the way the last five trading days went could be the same thing: Monday and
Tuesday soft, Wednesday the hump, then buyers on Thursday and Friday. However and as
expanded upon in this week’s opener, this time the lows felt more definitive and the reaction of
gold and the metals complex to the change in direction of the USD, healthy and correct.
As for the count, the headline is nine winners (AR.to, TMQ, AGC.v, SMD.v, ALDE.v, RYR.v,
WLF.v. GBR.v, MENE.v), one UNCH (MAI.v) and seven losers (RIO.v, CMMC.to, MIN.to, QCCU.v,
ECR.v, AUL.v, MIRL.cse). Most of the moves were small in either direction, the outliers being
Mene Inc (MENE.v up 14.8%) to the upside and Copper Mountain (CMMC.to down 4.7%) to the
downside. Copper names provided most of the losses.
We added Argonaut Gold (AR.to) last week, which balloons the total open positions to 17, two
over the house maximum and something I will address min the near future. Nine of the
seventeen are in the green this weekend, the other eight are in the red.
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company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.66 214.3% $1.14 tgt Aug'20, #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.77 -7.2% $1.58 tgt, finance capex due
Recommended stocks (In order of preference)
Copper Mountain CMMC.to STR BUY C$3.51 18-Jun-21 C$3.64 3.7% re-buy, Q2 earnings catalyst
Argonaut Gold AR.to STR BUY C$2.92 25-Jun-21 C$3.00 2.7% New prod. turnaround pick
Trilogy Metals TMQ BUY U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$2.51 36.4% Cu for 2021, going well
Amarillo Gold AGC.v BUY C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.32 3.2% add now, capex deal soon
Strategic Metals SMD.v BUY C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.39 -7.1% Canadian land asset bet
Excelsior Mining MIN.to STR BUY C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.56 -39.8% Delayed, but still great value
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v BUY C$0.68 16-May-21 C$0.61 10.3% Bet on big copper, pol risk okay
QC Copper &Gold QCCU.v STR BUY C$0.205 25-Apr-21 C$0.18 -12.2% Cu Jr, fast-tracking resource
Royal Road Min. RYR.v BUY C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.305 96.8% Model paying off in Nica
Wolfden Res. WLF.v spec buy C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.305 1.7% Zn trade needs to move soon
Great Bear Res GBR.v BUY C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$15.03 -5.1% Binary M&A trade, wait for print
Cartier Resources ECR.v hold/sell? C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.265 -17.2% Thinking of selling
Aurelius Min. AUL.v spec buy C$0.75 28-Jun-20 C$0.46 -38.7% has until its 43-101 to improve
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.08 -59.0% CEO change will move stock
Long-term non-mining hold
Mene Inc. MENE.v LT Hold C$0.62 6-Dec-20 C$0.70 12.9% LT bet on jockey&horse,will add
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Mining NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
2015 to 2020 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered stocks:
Argonaut Gold (AR.to): POSITION OPENED. Here is your paragraph to make official the
new position in AR.to, as per the main fundies note last weekend, plus a thought on the entry
point: The advantages of buying this company
(long-established in the market, mid-tier,
plenty of trade volume) include how a reco
from small mining newsletter won’t bend the
stock price out of shape. AR did what you
should all do, ignored my bullish talk and
dropped like a stone with them all, as gold
sold off early week:
It traded like just another GDXJ stock and as a
result, I’m happy with my average C$2.92
entry point. The cosmetic satisfaction of
seeing AR close the week with a 3-handle
should continue, too. Expect AR to out-
perform GDXJ in the next six months, or demand your money back.
9

Cartier Resources (ECR.v): Thinking of selling. We had some minor news from ECR last
week, a deal (2) with exploreco Delta Resource, that now options in on ECR’s Dollier property
South of Chibougamau (as that potential camp re-boot gets into gear). The deal is a standard
one and makes sense, ECR farming out deals that it wouldn’t be able to explore itself without
expanding the employee headcount. The deal makes sense but is no market mover, indeed ECR
continued on its negative trend last week.
As well as buying badly at the near-term top, this week’s of dumping ECR mean I now also
stand accused of flip-flopping on a position. Up to recently I’ve been pledging to hold this trade
no matter what until we get a print from Chimo, now I’m not so sure and with that on the table
and admitted, the two reasons nudging me toward selling out early and cutting losses are:
 The disappointing price action, not helped by the Chimo resource over-reach.
 A recent lack of urgency and an air of self-satisfaction at the company over Chimo,
which would be fine if the market shared their opinion.
 The IKN Stocks to Follow portfolio, which at 17 open positions needs trimming soon.
The new trades in Copper Mountain and Argonaut gold make more sense as the
markets turn back to positive for metals and miners, operators should benefit first.
Meanwhile, ECR has lagged and without real new soon, is likely to lag further.
No decision yet. We await drill assay news from Benoist, plus at any time the desired sale of
Chimo as that alone could double this stock from current levels.
Wolfden Resources (WLF.v): The other candidate for cutting from the portfolio, WLF,
continues on its quiet 2021 without moving far from the 30c line. This company deserves time
to deliver it 2021 drill campaign results, so on due consideration after last week’s note I’m
going to leave it on Hold until Labor Day USA, unless of course it decides to run and provide a
window to take decent profits. WLF hasn’t matched the improvement in the price of zinc-the-
metal in 2021, but that’s not unusual as all the stocks have lagged Zn, the market doesn’t credit
ZN producers in the immediate way it does copper (I blame Glencore). The potential catalyst is
a spike in Zn metals prices, rather than gradual change.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): We are now in July 2021 and, back in August 2020 we set raised
the price target on this Top Pick and house #1 idea in August 2020. As that was with a 12
month mindset, it gives a sense of how the stock price development has stalled since the end of
the Covid-19 crash/rebound period. The market changed (of course), as gold found its limit and
settled in to trade at under U$2,000/oz instead of over it. That didn’t help MAI’s price progress,
but the real headwind has been the ever-
expanding timeline to production, as Santana’s
build-out has arguably taken at least two
quarters longer than the company envisaged,
even three if you try to nail down the moment
when the operation goes cash flow positive (and
stays there).
Company president and corporate head Doug
Ramshaw (instead of CEO Koningen, who does
the real work and doesn’t need to talk) has
managed the delay well enough on the PR side
and his interactive way on social media has been
exemplary (other CEOs would do well to learn
from him) and that’s good, for one thing it
means I don’t get as many mails from frustrated long-term owners , but there’s no denying
the time slippage. As we enter 3q21, we are now in “put up or shut up” time with Santana, MAI
has gained the luxury of some extra time so far this year, but there’s a limit to patience when
the company in question is a Top Pick (and carries a fair portion of my net wealth). It also
10

means The IKN Weekly will come out of its fallow period on the stock in the weeks ahead. On a
personal level, I am okay about the delays to date and they have been understandable but it’s
time to own a working and profitable mine, not a developing one.
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to): The way CMMC traded last week…
…confirmed its position as one of the go-to stocks for the Canadian investment community
when the question is copper speculation. That’s the perfect vehicle for this desk at the moment,
a highly profitable copper producer that will run fast on positive copper pricing for the rest of
the year. However, last week was an early reminder of the way we expect this stock (and the
metal) to trade in 2h21, as we should now expect Chinese interventionism in the copper market
via inventory dumps) prices that will not provide a smooth ride higher. Higher yes, but on a
rougher ride.
Anything under $4.00 is cheap for this stock, which means this weekend’s $3.64 is an excellent
bargain. We also have a clear date for the next price catalyst, as CMMC files its 2q21 earnings
and operations results pre-open on Monday July 26th with Conference Call the same morning
(link to CC here (3)).
Amarillo Gold (AGC.v): Trading as expected. The comparative chart with GDXJ shows how
AGC is ignoring the rest of the market and doing it own thing, the price deck now all about the
upcoming financing and the share price will be managed accordingly until then. Don’t expect
this to run yet, that happens on announcement of the capex deal and that should happen
between now and October.
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v): Turn off the retail noise. CEO John Black showed again on
the pay-to-play video channel Crux Investor last week (4) to talk up the Altar project (ALDE has
one Crux video out every month, a sure sign), but personally speaking it’s not a major issue
and the only thing that irks is the money wasted (on this instead of drill core). Both ALDE and
REG continue to follow a marketing strategy that didn’t work at REG and won’t gain the right
audience here, but that’s only to be expected from the mediocrity running IR at both REG and
11

ALDE. However, the boys at REG/ALDE seem to have another viewpoint, so here we are. We
bought this stock for the chart…
….and not the noise. ALDE will run when the people with real money look for deep value in
copper and realize San Juan Argentina is a good place to be. We retail are 100%
inconsequential to the future success or failure of Altar, not even for getting “good market
buzz”. This trade is about the straight numbers and perceived political risk, the rest is noise and
once it runs, we can pick our spot to take profits. Best guess, a major push around Labor Day
as the cliché now seems unavoidable. C’est la vie.
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): The softness in trading
reported last weekend continued, speculative interest in
QCCU seems to dry up at 22c and here we are, back at
18c. Whether that is good or bad depends on whether
you are a buyer or a seller. Those interested in
buying/adding don’t need to pay more than 2oc (i.e.
where I am) before the expected main catalyst at the
company, its maiden 43-101 resource in which we
discover what goes in and what stays out of the open
pit plan at Opemiska.
Aurelius Minerals (AUL.v): Another frustrating week.
I don’t have a massive amount of real money exposure here, so AUL usefully serves as a
humility gauge without hurting the back pocket too much. On entry, I gave the company its
2021 to impress, but if trading doesn’t improve this company will be a tax loss seller for a lot of
people at the end of the year. That means this desk will make a proactive add/hold/sell decision
this quarter.
Mene Inc (MENE.v): It wasn’t the entry of a multimillionaire…
…but somebody new arrived in the stock and the reaction was telling, they needed to pay up. I
would really like everyone on this list to own at least a few MENE shares, as in three or five
years’ time you’ll be kicking yourself otherwise. I fear the best performing pick at a mining
newsletter over may turn out to be an online jewelry retailer.
12

The Copper Basket
After twenty-six weeks of 2021, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 34.25% to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.08 107.53 1265.63 11.77 93.6%
2 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 1.81 207.5 755.30 3.64 101.1%
3 Oroco Res OCO.v 1.85 186.96 615.10 3.29 77.8%
4 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.25 87.737 357.09 4.07 25.2%
5 Western Copper WRN.to 1.57 135.798 353.07 2.60 65.6%
6 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.80 181.79 221.78 1.22 52.5%
7 Excelsior Min. MIN.to 1.12 273.585 153.21 0.56 -50.0%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.07 101.85 78.42 0.77 -28.0%
9 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.455 125.24 76.40 0.61 34.1%
10 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.115 438.56 78.94 0.180 56.5%
11 Doré Copper DCMC.v 1.00 53.304 45.31 0.85 -15.0%
12 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.45 68.281 38.92 0.57 26.7%
13 Chakana Cop PERU.v 0.60 111.41 36.21 0.325 -45.8%
14 US Copper USCU.v 0.105 87.53 61.27 0.70 61.9%
15 Chibougamau CBG.v 0.165 53.077 13.80 0.26 57.6%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 34.25%
The Copper Basket’s week was defined by trading in the metal, China leaning hard on the spot
price early week, the world leaning back later.
The Copper Basket 2021, weekly evolution
By Tuesday morning COPX was down 3% for 70%
the week and a lot of the stocks in the above
60%
list were heavily red, so the final result of
50%
eight losers (SLS.to, CMMC.to, OCO.v, MIN.to,
40%
DCMC.v, ECU.v, USCU.v, CBG.v) and six
30%
winners (WRN.to, MARI.to, ARG.to, PERU.v,
CCCM.v, ALDE.v) wasn’t so bad, Regulus the 20%
only UNCH. The overall basket average 10%
notched back to where it was two weeks ago, 0%
the back-test is complete, time to move
higher.
It was all about copper-the-metal and its trading and to illustrate, I’ve chosen a one month
chart of the current near-dated futures contract and scribbled on it
13
ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj
source: IKN calcs

Expect volatility, expect the jawboning down of copper, expect real end users to keep buying, e
expect market bulls to fight back. The reality of the copper supply deficit over the next three to
five years cannot be denied, therefore the easiest winning position is that of the patient bull.
It’s the end of the second quarter, which means we take a moment to look back at the relative
performance of our 15 basket components for 2021 and here’s the chart:
The 2021 Copper Basket components after 26 weeks
14
%1.101
%6.39
%8.77
%6.56 %9.16
%6.75 %5.65 %5.25
%1.43
%7.62
%2.52
%0.51- %0.82- %8.54- %0.05-
150%
125%
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
-25%
-50%
ot.CMMC ot.SLS v.OCO ot.NRW v.UCSU v.GBC v.MCCC ot.GRA v.EDLA v.UCE ot.IRAM v.CMCD v.GER v.UREP ot.NIM
source: TSX, IKN calcs
As a matter of fact, I own shares in slot number one and slot number fifteen and make of that
what you will. The quarter was typified by strong performances across the board. Copper
Mountain (CMMC.to) gets the top slot so well done there, but plenty of other stocks show big
improvement from the end of Q1 so cheers and applause (in order) for Oroco, Western, Solaris,
Chibougamau and even Amerigo. To the downside, previous fast running Marimaca (MARI
stalled a little, the USCU promo ran out of puff and Doré Copper (DCMC.v) was more concerned
about raising treasury capital than its share price. REG, PERU and MIN, all miserable.
Overall, a fine 2q21 for the copper complex, our chosen stocks giving a fair reflection of how
bullish it is out there for this sub-sector. Please note the difference when you reach the
‘Producer Basket’ section below and the lacklustre performances seen in PM stocks last quarter.
We move on and turn our attention to world copper stocks. First the long-term charts and the
end of another month, here are our normal tracking charts:
Copper inventories, per month, 2012 to date
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam
Mt Cu source: Cochilco
Comex
Shanghai
LME
Put in the format above, the last three months of copper stock moves do not look particularly
dramatic. It’s only when you start looking at previous years and what stocks normally do in Q1
and Q2 every year that the shortage becomes apparent. As for the percentages held around the
world, as per normal the LME returns to top dog after a brief seasonal period below Shanghai’s
SHFE tonnages for copper. Comex has waxed, is now wanes again and is of little interest as a
price driver.

Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
15
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam
LME Shanghai Comex source: Cochilco
To better illustrate the tightness, forget SHFE where we know tonnages are tight and consider
only LME, this dedicated chart putting the recent 90kt dumpage by China into context.
LME copper stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam
source: LME data
reppoc
sennot
cirtem
Unless they add more, and plenty more at that, the excess is set to be absorbed rapidly and
this week’s market data shows the process has already started:
 World copper stocks once again flash bullish, dropping when they should have risen.
The total aggregate on the week is 399,511 metric tonnes (MT), back under the 400k
line after just a week as stocks tighten.
 The SHFE remains the big tell, stocks dropping 11,284 metric tonnes on the week (-
7.3%) to close under the 150k line, at 143,520mt. The fast de-stocking continues, a
few more thoughts on it below with the SHFE chart.
 After the big dump on LME of the previous week it was far quieter stocks-wise, with
just 975mt coming out and a Friday total of 211,950mt. However, Cochilco also reports
cancelled warrants tonnages rising again, which suggests drawdowns soon.
 At the COMEX, another modest drawdown with inventories finishing the week at
45,401mt, down 886mt. The market may be North America and not Asia, but the
market points in the same direction and real end-users are buying real copper from the
world’s market reserves.
Here’s the Shanghai-only inventories chart and the 150k line lasted exactly one week:
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
ht5naj ht61 ht52 dr3gua ht21 ts12 5102
ts1ram
ht01 ht91 ht72 ht6ced ht41 ht42 6102
dr3luJ
ht11 ht72 ht5beF ht61 ht52 7102
dr3pes
ht21 ts12 8102
ts1rpa
ht71 ht62 8102
ht4von
9102
ht31naj
ht42 9102
dn2nuj
ht11 ht02 ht92 ht8 ht71 0202ht62luj ht4tco 0202ht31ced ts12 1202dn2yam
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco

The house bullish view of supply and demand was laid out last weekend, no need to repeat.
Today we note that in a normal annual cycle, SHFE inventories will go into a holding pattern
around the 150k level for some weeks, before the final drawdowns come at the end of the year.
With 2021 being the anomaly it is, this desk is now watching closely for any deviations from the
norm. In practical terms, that means…
1) …if SHFE stocks stay around this level for Q3, neutral.
2) …if SHFE stocks continue to drop toward 100k in Q3, bullish.
I expect the latter and am ready to temper my bullishness if the former shows up.
US Copper (USCU.v) and Chibougamau (CBG.v): The only interesting trading patterns last
week are here, as these tinycaps saw more selling and volatility remains high.
These tinycaps rely on promotion tomoe up fast in the way see on that chart, so seeing them
both act in the same way into the 2q21 close is a salutary reminder on how this junuor
exploreco market works: No matter the story, the excitement, the timing or the reasoning
behind the promo, the exit door is the same.
The Producer Basket
After twenty-six weeks of 2021, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 10.82% to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out Mkt Cap (U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 59.89 805 51.00 63.36 5.8%
2 Barrick GOLD 22.78 1778.04 36.97 20.79 -8.7%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 70.51 244.187 15.06 61.69 -12.5%
4 Kirkland Lake KL 41.27 267.056 10.43 39.04 -5.4%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 7.34 1261.07 8.12 6.44 -12.3%
6 Pan American PAAS 34.71 210.262 6.06 28.84 -16.9%
7 Endeavour Min EDV.to 29.62 252.568 5.79 27.53 -7.1%
8 B2Gold BTG 5.60 1051.697 4.43 4.21 -24.8%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 8.75 392.739 3.07 7.81 -10.7%
10 Pretium Res PVG 11.48 187.833 1.82 9.70 -15.5%
Prices in U$ except EDV.to (share price in CAD$ and mkt cap in approx USD) Port. avg -10.82%
You all saw the huffing and puffing of the market last week, driven by US Dollar expectations,
talk of Delta Variants. Once it was done, hardly anything had changed, with the main gold
bullion ETF (GLD) up 0.5%, the main precious metals miners ETF (GDX) up 6c (six cents) and
the main juniors ETF (GDXJ) up 3c (yes, three cents). In other words, one large wash of a week
and that reflected on our list: Six winners (NEM, KGC, PAAS, EDV.to, PVG, AGI), four losers
(GOLD, AEM, KL, BTG) and not a single one of those ten that moved more than 1.8% from its
16

price last weekend.
As for or ongoing competition against GDX, we gained a couple of tenths against the
benchmark but are still trailing badly as we enter the second half of 2021. Not an impossible
gap to close, but it would need company-specific good news from more than one pick, as well
as a new appetite for mining stocks that sees Tier 2 names play catch-up to NEM and GOLD.
On the subject, it’s the end of 2q21 and time for our comparative performance chart of the ten
producer basket names. Visual first, notes and queries blow:
The 2021 Producer Basket components after 26 weeks
10% 5.8%
5%
-5.4% -7.1% -8.7% -10.7%-12.3%-12.50%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-15.5%
-20% -16.9%
-25%
-24.8%
-30%
17
MEN LK ot.VDE DLOG IGA CGK MEA GVP SAAP GTB
The 2021 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and 20%
comparative to GDX control
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
source: NYSE/TSX, IKN calcs
All Hail Newmont (NM), undisputed king of the ring. Aside the obvious winner in 2021, we
applaud Kirkland Lake (KL), Endeavour (EDV.to), Barrick (GOLD) and Agnico (AEM), all big-
hitter gold producers and all managed to claw back some of the Q1 losses during the last
quarter. Not so Kinross (KGC), Alamos (AGI) and especially Pretium (PVG) and Pan American
(PAAS), hit by both company-specific issues and a market preference for Tier 1 names. At the
rear, I continue to regret including B2Gold in the list and Clive Johnson isn’t earning his bonus
in 2021.
StreamerWatch: A half-year update and the field is now stretching, with the rich getting richer
and the poor getting poorer. To the bright side, this is one of the ingredients you’d require from
a sector that then consolidates, with big names eating small.
ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj
The 2021 Producer Basket: Percentage difference between
GDX benchmark and basket (negative = IKN basket ahead) 8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
basket 1.0%
gdx control 0.0%
source: Google, IKN Calcs ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj
source: IKN calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq/TSX data

The Tiny Dogs
After twenty-six weeks of 2021, the Tiny Dogs show a loss of 5.38% to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Antler Gold ANTL.v 0.205 61.348 7.36 0.12 -41.5%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.045 163.975 7.38 0.045 0.0%
Constantine Met CEM.v 0.17 45.4 11.12 0.245 44.1%
Contact Gold C.v 0.115 240.757 21.67 0.09 -21.7%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.22 40 6.80 0.17 -22.7%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.045 230.79 16.16 0.07 55.6%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.240 106.241 11.69 0.11 -54.2%
QC Copper QCCU.v 0.315 105 18.90 0.18 -42.9%
Red Pine Expl RPX.v 0.400 95.806 51.74 0.54 35.0%
Warrior Gold WAR.v 0.090 91.818 7.80 0.085 -5.6%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg -5.38%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
Another non-even of a week for The Tiny Dogs, with the only move of note the 10c lost by Red
Pine Exploration (RPX.v down 15.6%). RPX was one of four losers (RPX, then MTU.v, PRG.v,
QCCU.v), three other stocks were unchanged (BAY.v, C.v, GDP.v) and the other three winners
(ANTL.v, CEM.v, WAR.v). The biggest was War Eagle, up 13.3%, but that’s only impressive until
you realize it’s a penny.
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v): We return to the theme of RPX trading, perhaps because
there’s little else of interest happening at the other companies presently. The YTD chart…
…is as clear as any other and we can see the corporate financial re-working now coming out of
the stock price. There are two questions to answer for a successful trade in RPX:
1) Where is the current bottom? Considering the markedly improved corporate
circumstances at RPX, with 100% ownership of Wawa and treasury cash to drill, it’s
18

unlikely to so 40c again unless the drill program and results are a total washout. I’d
therefore venture that the near-term bottom in this stock fits the near-term bottom in
the wider precious metals market, currently forming.
2) What will the drill results bring? Wawa has been crying out for a bigger, better-funded
and more systemic drill program, it now gets that. Only time will tell on assay results
and market reaction, this is an exploreco and anything can happen.
In other words, those of you willing to take the risk may want to consider the current sub-60c
price as the right one with which to take a chance. This desks wishes you the best of trading
fortune if you do.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It is possible that in the
future I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, but at the moment both my opinion and my wallet are strictly
neutral.
Regional politics
Chile and the royalty debate
With the debate and potential passage of the Mining Royalty law now scheduled in the
country’s upper house Senate this month, debate on the controversial law is now loud in Chile.
This week we bring you the pro-mining side and this excellent piece (5), published this
weekend in one of Chile’s up-and-coming politically neutral online media sites, El Dinamo.
Written by lawyer Christian Aste, it goes into detail on the mining sector’s current fiscal burden
and how we got to where we are, including that famous “temporary” earthquake relief tax that
miners pay to this day. The article is long, dry and in Spanish, so click through at your own risk
but here’s a short translated excerpt to show the overall tone. In his note, Aste has already
walked us through the situations faced by three model companies in Chile, chosen by size. He
does so in impressive detail before getting to the point:
“If the IEM (the current mining-specific tax burden) is eliminated and we’re left with only
the new Mining Royalty for the three companies, they would pay between 39% and
84% more than they pay today. And the company with the lowest margins would be the
one that pays the most, in Chile the margins are not the 35% that the press incorrectly
believes, which is why the impact will be greater.
The consensus in Chile is that some type of extra tax or royalty is happening, the debate is
what and how it will be levied. With the government and Senate trying hard to find ways of
watering down the new tax, we’re likely to see Chile Senate pass a project that won’t please
anybody, but is diluted enough for Piñera can sign into law.
Ecuador: Advantage mining companies
For a week or two, at least. The Lasso government is already making its pro-mining stance felt
at a national level in Ecuador. On Wednesday (6), the country’s Constitutional Court (CC)
denied the application for the anti-mining referendum question brought to it by the pressure
groups in the Chocó Andino zone (as reported two weeks ago here). The court decided that the
question tabled is outside the controls established by the constitution, a subjective response
and one that will keep the mining companies happy, though the anti-mining groups say they
will keep up the pressure (it’s the 6th time their petition has been denied, apparently).
Meanwhile, Ecuador moved closer to re-joining the World Bank ICSID/CIADI tribunal system,
with Guillermo Lasso’s government last week claiming it didn’t even need to put the issue to
Congress and could sign back on via executive decree. Ecuador left ICSID during the Rafael
Correa years, a move that would deny companies recourse to the ISCID tribunal if disputes
arise (and they will). Expect all Ecuador-exposed mining companies to benefit when Lasso
announces Ecuador’s return to ICSID/CIADI, it will come under the banner of “serious pro-
mining country” and be promoted hard. It doesn’t matter one bit in the long-run, but Lasso isn’t
stupid and will take full advantage of his limited honeymoon period to be as pro-business as
possible. Style beats substance at the moment.
19

Argentina: San Juan begins to step out
This desk predicted national Mining Secretary Alberto Hensel (of San Juan) would make
changes of this sort, also that San Juan province would begin regional marketing of its mining
sector an try to separate from the national image this year. Last week, the process began when
on Thursday, San Juan provincial mining minister Carlos Astudillo headed up a meeting that
included representatives from national and local government as well as the major mining
company players in the region (7) (Casposo, CAPRIMSA, Aldebaran, CARPEM, Minas Argentinas,
CASEMICA, Banco San Juan, Banco Nación, AbraPlata, CAPRESMI, Sable, Glencore Pachón,
Deprominsa, Golden Mining, Unión Industrial Argentina, Minera Piuquenes and Minera Andina
del Sol, among others).
It was the first meeting in a series designed to better promote mining in San Juan, topics
included ESG and an initiative that will allow companies to earn a “Community Citizen”
certificate of responsibility (as long as they meet the standards). Minister Astudillo gives us the
sound bite (translated):
“Together, we can boost development of the province of San Juan. The potential is enormous,
as are the benefits this activity can bring to Argentine society. We will design and plan this
future for all, separated we won’t get there, but if we are together we could advance toward
the San Juan we want.”
The Latin America Energy Forum 2021 goes metals mining
Big as it is, the annual “Latin America Energy Forum” (LEAF) isn’t a conference that normally
comes up on my radar. This year is different, as the headlines were as much about copper and
lithium as they were on the normal top-billing hydrocarbons or alternative energy sources.
Above all, LEAF is an established government/business interface conference and present
(online) were ministers, vice-ministers and government secretaries for energy and mining from
Brazil, Peru, Colombia, Paraguay, Panama, The USA and Chile, alongside director-level suits
from a host of big-name listed companies.
Chile’s sub-secretary of mining, Edgar Blanco, did the honours for his country in a keynote
speech (8) and he made clear Chile’s willingness to be part of the green energy revolution to a
audience suddenly interested in the metals Chile has (and par excellence):
“The energy revolution has pushed the demand curve for copper higher, for example as an
electric Vehicle needs four times the amount of copper compared to a conventional Vehicle. The
same in the development of renewable energies, above all solar and wind, that also require
between three and four times as much copper as conventional energy.”
We can debate that last statement (govt stats, etc), but the general thrust is correct, as is this
from later in his speech:
“Large-scale Chilean mining activity will be required for the boom in clean energy. Firstly, because
the speed of demand growth for non-conventional renewable energies needs our minerals.
Secondly, because our geological endowment allows us to supply them.”
He is exactly right, and also speaking plain truth to an adult audience controlling large budgets.
Yes, Argentina and Bolivia, even Peru, have large scale flats bearing lithium, but Chile is a
long-term established producer (SQM etc), ahead of them all on the development curve and
can scale up more quickly.
This week in Peru
I’m going to keep this week’s segment on Peru brief, a deliberate decision to underscore how
things are beginning to settle down (and I’m bored with headlining the same subject week after
week). For the main point we go with a translation of this report from Argentina (9), the left
wing pro-government TV channel telling Argentines Pedro Castillo is “a step away from the
presidency” of Peru. Biased toward Pedro Castillo, the TV Publica Argentina report goes on to
list several reasons why “….Peruvian media channels habitually aligned with the Fujimori
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movement, such as the newspaper El Comercio, have also apparently withdrawn their
unconditional support for the Fuerza Popular candidate.”
The country is largely resigned to the fact it has Pedro Castillo as its next President, the hard
right wing in Peru has lost the debate, the second round election will be ratified soon and
appeals by Keiko Fujimori and her team are now as shrill as they are ignored. Instead, the new
debate has now moved to what a Castillo government will mean for Peru in the near-term and
most talk is now around a “Constitutional Assembly”, i.e. a formal process in which Peru goes
about changing its constitution. For the model, look no further than Chile which started the
process last year and will probably com to its conclusions in 2022.n Peru will be roughly a year
behind in the process, there will also be plenty of pressure from opposition groups not to
change a single word of the current Constitution, written in the early years of the Alberto
Fujimori government.
Therefore, the major policy issue now emerging is local rather than mining or business-related.
That probably suits mining, but at some point the proposed changes to Peru’s Magna Carta will
affect the sector. That’s an effect for the future, but mining will have a problem in early Agust
when the new government announces its tax changes. We should now expect higher burdes on
miners immediately (not sure how much), plus on top of that a move to impose a windfall tax
(WFT) on sales. That will take more time to get on the books but be clear; from the moment
the proposal is tabled, it’s going to be bad news for operating mining companies in Peru.
Brazil: Jair Bolsonaro’s ‘Super Impeachment’
Not directly mining related, but the political consequences of Jair Bolsonaro’s 2020 (and 2021)
response to the Covid-19 crisis in Brazil is beginning to cause him serious concern. He managed
to publicly laugh off last week’s headline-making announcement from a group of Brazilian
politicians spanning left and right wings that they are bringing multiple impeachment charges
against him. The charges are many and varied, but the big headline-makers are the accusations
(backed with evidence and sworn testimony) that his government and therefore Bolsonaro
himself have been involved with corrupt deals for Covid-19 vaccines. Those are the cause of the
big protest marches in Brazil this weekend and while Bolsonaro’s presidency isn’t in any
immediate danger, pressure is rising fast.
My knowledge of the notoriously murky world of Brasilia governmental and Congressional
politics is scant, however the general Bolsonaro strategy of holding on until the worst of Brazil’s
Covid-19 nightmare is over, then bouncing back in 2022 pre-election on the back of decreased
death rates, economic recovery and populist promises, is not a difficult one to read. The “super-
impeachment” announcement of this week is likely connected to that, as it ensures the issue
will remain in the headlines as 2021 becomes 2022 and the direct battle of Lula vs Jair begins.
Market Watching
Deferred
I am lazy this weekend. Again.
Conclusion
IKN632 is done, we end with bullet points:
 We are past halfway in 2021 and copper has been the better bet so far. However, the
market is now moving toward gold again and last week had my gut telling me the
bottom is in.
 Kuya Silver (KUYA.cse) has dropped in price recently and is back at a C$73m market
cap, almost reasonable for a silver exploreco. With corporate financing and other
headwinds now behind the company and news about to flow from its major 2021 drill
program, here’s a silver spec idea for you.
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 I’m happy with the recent entry points for both Copper Mountain (CMMC.to) and
Argonaut Gold (AR.to), proof positive there is value to be had in this market. Now let’s
see it rebound in style.
 This desk has afforded time and patience to both its Top Pick stocks this year, but it’s
now time both Rio2 (RIO.) and Minera Alamos (MAI.v) deliver their 2021 catalysts. Put
up or shut up, Messrs Black and Ramshaw.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://kuyasilver.com/news/news-2/news-2021/uyailverlarifiesechnicalisclosure20210525150800
(2) https://ressourcescartier.com/press-releases/cartier-signs-agreement-with-delta-to-option-100-of-the-dollier-property/
(3) https://produceredition.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1478739&tp_key=16f12ee090
(4) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lu2DA6ZfK2A
(5) https://www.eldinamo.cl/opinion/2021/07/04/no-nos-equivoquemos-con-el-royalty-minero/
(6) https://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/ecuador/quito-corte-nego-pedido-de-consulta-popular-mineria-choco-andino-
nota/
(7) https://sisanjuan.gob.ar/mineria/2021-07-02/33264-actores-mineros-se-reunieron-para-analizar-el-futuro-de-la-
industria
(8) https://www.elrancaguino.cl/2021/07/03/subsecretario-edgar-blanco-la-revolucion-de-las-energias-ha-disparado-la-
curva-de-demanda-del-cobre/
(9) https://www.tvpublica.com.ar/post/peru-castillo-a-un-paso-de-la-presidencia
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
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Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
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Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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