IKN #625Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 625, May 16th 2021
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In today’s edition, A brief intro.
Fundamental Analysis: Buying Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v).
Stocks to Follow: Excelsior Mining (MIN.to), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), QC Copper & Gold
(QCCU.v), Orezone (ORE.v), Trilogy Metals (TMQ), Aurelius Minerals (AUL.v), Great Bear
(GBR.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, The Peru copper stocks, C3 Metals (CCCM.v), Chibougamau
(CBG.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Pan American Silver (PAAS).
Tiny Dogs: Overview, Contact Gold (C.v).
Regional Politics: A Covid-19 update for Brazil Peru and Mexico, Peru election update,
Colombia update, Ecuador: Pachakutik takes the Congress presidency, The Chile royalty update.
Market Watching: Deferring on McEwen Mining (MUX), An eye on the Roxgold (ROXG.to)
side bet, Minera IRL (MIRL.cse) 1q21 financials, Revisiting the Copper Mountain price chart.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
“
Trade heads-up
I am a buyer of Aldebaran Resources (ALDE,v) in the days ahead. See today’s main
Fundamentals section for full details.
In today’s edition
 Today’s main event considers the coming together of several circumstances that have
made Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v) and obvious speculative trade on copper.
 We’re still all about copper, with the metal trading strongly despite its price correction
and more signs that it’s the time to rotate into the smaller stocks.
 Peru’s election looks tighter according to the polls, don’t believe the hype.
 We’re also trying to keep it concise today, less theory and strategy, more about trades
to make money.
A brief intro
We are brief and straight to the point: I’m a GLD gold holdings, 2021 YTD (metric tonnes)
1200
copper bull, I’m now bullish silver and when 1180
it comes to the main event, after the 1160
1140
embarrassment of IKN623 I’m constructive
1120
on gold and no longer trying to get cute and 1100
call each move. Nothing changed in the 1080
1060
macro last week to cause alarm or change
1040
plans. Therefore just a wrap of our fetish 1020
1000
1 02/21/13 12/1/5 12/1/01 12/1/51 12/1/02 12/1/52 12/1/03 12/2/4 12/2/9 12/2/41 12/2/91 12/2/42 12/3/1 12/3/6 12/3/11 12/3/61 12/3/12 12/3/62 12/3/13 12/4/5 12/4/01 12/4/51 12/4/02 12/4/52 12/4/03 12/5/5 12/5/01
mt
source: SPDR GLD data

charts for GLD, three tonnes added to inventories to bring the total back to 1028.15mt and
away from the 1,000 line. Inventories continue their bottoming out process and as for our
inventory/price ratio, Wall St. is at sentiment washout level for gold and the reversal is due.
8.50 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2016 to date
8.25
8.00
7.75
7.50
7.25
7.00
6.75
6.50
6.25
6.00
5.75
5.50
2
61/4/1 61/61/3 61/62/5 61/8/8 61/81/01 61/92/21 71/41/3 71/42/5 71/4/8 71/61/01 71/72/21 81/21/3 81/22/5 81/2/8 81/21/01 81/42/21 91/8/3 91/02/5 91/13/7 91/01/01 91/02/21 02/5/3 02/51/5 02/82/7 02/7/01 02/71/21 12/3/3 12/11/5
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
Sentiment is clear, we know gold has more buyers than sellers at the moment (look at the
chart), but we also know those buyers are not the classic US financial insto that uses GLD to
enter. When Wall St buying again, GLD inventories will return with a vengeance as a bullish
price factor Or so the theory goes, so far the bottoming-out process has been slow-moving and
improvements show more clearly on a monthly basis:
GLD Holdings at end month, August 2020 to date
5.1521 9.8621 7.7521
8.4911 7.0711 5.7511
5.3901
5.7301
7101
4.8201
1300
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
02'guA pes tco von 02'ceD 12'naJ bef ram rpa *yam
NB: cut down Y axis source: SPDR *to date
dlog
sennot
cirtem
Today’s intro is brief, the edition is on-point too, with less theory and strategy and more on a
clear trade set-up in copper that has appeared in the last few days. We begin.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Buying Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v)
Today’s main event is an unusual report, we attempt to show that Aldebaran Resources
(ALDE.v) is the right company at the right time to take advantage of the secular bull market for
copper. Though obviously about ALDE and its main Altar project, the buy thesis rests less on
the company and more about the way circumstances around it have changed to make it a buy.
We examine the series of events that have brought the ducks into line at ALDE, which started
with the rise in copper but has grown into a long list. To that, we add the reason to buy next
week the game-changer that’s set to make San Juan the next best place to go mining.
The Game-Changer
We begin our buy thesis on Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v) not with the company, but with the
news out of the Lundin Group’s exploreco Filo Mining (FIL.v), exploring the Filo del Sol property
in San Juan, Argentina. The Filo hole is a game-changer indeed (1) and in passing, after having
to read years of superfluous hype and NR adjective overloads, this desk appreciated the
understated language of its title:

Filo Mining Reports 858m at 1.80% CuEq; Discovers New
High-Grade Feeder Zone at Filo del Sol
The numbers speak for themselves. This table from the NR of “the hole of the year” made the
blog, the red circles show the goods:
Regarding language, FIL President/CEO Jamie Beck must have enjoyed collecting his words for
the CEO comment. We had “game-changer”, “one of the best holes drilled globally this year”,
“the long-sought feeder zone”, “vast size potential”, “exceptional grades” and that “…Filo del
Sol will turn out to be one of the most important copper-gold-silver discoveries in recent years.”
There’s no reason to disagree and the company
deserves its place in the sun this weekend, here’s
a price chart to show the new star.
However, FIL is not resting on its laurels and we
like that, this company has serious cash to throw
at a world class project. The dynamic shows
when FIL talked its plans for the rest of 2021.
With winter now closing in and drilling season
over, the game-changer hole means FIL CEO
Beck tells of their plans for, “continuous, year-
round activities leading to our most ambitious
field program ever”. We will have the winter high
country break, but as from the thaw, that FIL
hole has broken the exploreco cycle. Corporate budgets are suddenly aggressive, which sits
nicely alongside the several recent comments out of Argentina’s Secretary of Mining (i.e. the
minister) Alberto Hensel, who has been talking up Josemaria (rather than Filo del Sol, probably
a simple confusion) in talks and interviews recently as the next big mine for San Juan. In fact
and to segue into the next key subject coming into line for ALDE, we might add that the best
way to make sure Argentina permits and builds a massive porphyry copper mine is to say they
have “the next La Escondida” or something “even bigger and better than Chile”. That old rivalry
will be enough. But before that, we return to the significance of the FIL hole last week and this
desk could not agree more with CEO Beck, he surely has a game-changer on his hands.
However, it’s not just for FIL and the Lundin Group, as this hole happily coincides with an
upcoming change in mining policy at both regional and national level. This desk firmly believes
the FIL hole doesn’t just change the fortunes of the company, but also provides the spark
needed to dynamize mining exploration in San Juan. For that, read on.
An overview of mining political risk in San Juan, Argentina
Please put down the Fraser Institute risk league table, which naively splits the country up into
its mining provinces and then pretends they are little countries. They make San Juan Argentina
3

one of the best places in the world (not just LatAm) to go mining, always worth a small laugh
as thoughts of the difference between Argentina and Val D’Or, or Kalgoorlie or Sonora cross my
mind. On the other hand San Juan has earned its reputation as a good destination for mining
dollars and particularly at the moment, the province actively looking to expand its industry and
create jobs in these difficult Covidian times. Since the governorship of PJ stalwart José Luis
Gioja (2003 to 2015) San Juan has been one of the best, if not the best, provinces to go mining
in Argentina and that atmosphere has not changed under the stewardship of his successor and
dauphin, Sergio Uñac, now into his second term.
San Juan has mines, jobs and wealth created from the industry, with these days much of the
province’s budget funded by its share of revenues from Veladero, Gualcamayo and Casposo,
among others. However, it lost its way on the exploration side after the first wave of mines
were built and now has a big gap for the next mine, supposedly Josemaria which in itself could
take years. The problems were purely political, take for example this 2010 interview with the
then-mining minister for the province. With Veladero and Gualcamayo in production and the
next mine, Casposo (ex-Troy Resources) about to open, he was asked for the next projects in
the province and answered “Pachón, Los Azules and Altar” (2), then going into details on each
one and talking them up (e.g. Altar was more “medium-term” than the others, back was world
class in size and scope). Here we are eleven years on: Glencore did everything in its power not
to fund Pachón and leave it as a deposit, McEwen Mining (MUX) has been too busy failing at
gold to develop copper at Los Azules. Meanwhile Altar went through its own corporate
upheaval, bought by Stillwater at the very top of the market (the CEO “was resigned” as a
consequence later) and then ignored, before getting new life at ALDE.v. Therefore, despite
being “miner friendly” San Juan has made little progress in the last decade, but that is
connected with a national policy that’s now changing. Under Macri and now under Alberto
Fernández, the goal was always to create a National Federal mining policy that covers all
provinces. However, with so many provinces now anti-mining that plan is apparently being
changed for one which allows provinces more autonomy and presents them as separate from
the bad places. This change of policy tack by Argentina’s Secretary of Mining, Alberto Hensel, is
very welcome and dovetails with what’s going on in San Juan today.
The revelation of San Juan mining plans
And here is the thing; San Juan is about to become Alberto Hensel’s poster child, as not only
will he move heaven and earth to get “The Next La Escondida Is Argentine” built at Filo de Sol,
but he also has the province auctioning new
concessions and welcoming new explorecos. The
last time San Juan tried to auction concessions, it
was 2019 and it got one taker. This time, the
province’s IPEEM body, in charge of the
upcoming tender of seven concessions in the
province, expects plenty of interest and world
class mining companies bidding against each
other. This map (3) of the seven sites shows the
much anticipated JM I and JM II concessions,
next to Josemaria Resources and Filo Mining, as
well as two concessions to the South of Los
Azules. Another length to the South is Altar, a
relatively close 50km as the crow flies
In San Juan today, we have several ducks
coming into line for mining. The copper price
drives all, after that we have a national
government changing a failed mining policy and
a province about to make an aggressively pro-
mining statement. With the Alberto Fernández
national executive also on-side this makes San
Juan a reasonable bet, though before we
4

continue let us be clear that as a standalone, San Juan is a good place for mining. As for the
wider country, Argentina isn’t, but parts of Argentina such as San Juan are now beginning to
look attractive compared to the uptick in risk in other LatAm states. The Chile mining royalty
issue may throw some temporary shade on its most important mining neighbour too, but more
important is the absolute availability of porphyry-style targets, which are mostly kept away from
foreign companies. The other countries for big porphyries are getting politically tougher by the
quarter (Peru, Ecuador, Southwest Colombia*). Argentina’s own Federal system doesn’t help
matters; the right of each province to adopt its own constitution means provinces get a lot of
say in how they live and means disdain for mining in Chubut, Rio Negro, Mendoza, Neuquen
and even where mines operate, such as Catamarca and Salta in the North, opposition puts paid
to projects. If you are going mining in Argentina, the places to go are either Santa Cruz in the
South, or San Juan in the approximate centre of the country that shares a long, high-altitude
border with Chile. On the other side of the frontier, we know Chile has moved forward strongly
with its mining industry in the 21st century and now has large and very large mines, mostly
based around the copper porphyry principle.
Therefore, with San Juan not only friendly at a local level but becoming relatively more
attractive on a national and international level, there’s enough to mitigate my reticence about
exposing to the country but let’s not hide them either; Simply having both leading national and
regional politicos, leaders and parties 100% in-line on the question of mining and its
development does not suddenly make San Juan a slam dunk. Not only does the province have
its own enviro/Greenpeace lobby, but the world-headline making spills at the Barrick Veladero
operation a few years ago did the industry zero favours (often the case, the cover-up did more
damage than the incident) and the Sanjuanino public, while majority pro-mining, is also keenly
aware of the issues on both sides. The other major issue is the so-called “Glacier Law” in
Argentina has and will continue to be a thorn in the side of high Andean projects. It was source
for much of the protests against Barrick’s Pascua Lama, with the Lama side also in San Juan. An
example of the political power that supersedes administrations in Argentina, so just calling San
Juan province “miner friendly” with “no permitting issues” and “no treehuggers” may do you
and your bank account a disservice. All this aside from the macro factors that affect the country
on a regular basis, such as sudden increases in taxes and burdens, import/export restrictions,
restrictions on forex and foreign currency movement, endemic cost inflation in Pesos, etc.
Argentina will always be risky, in mid-2021 it’s sufficiently mitigated by the positive factors and
our advantage is flexibility. Be sure there will be manifold issues for the company to surmount
in the future; nine water procurement, accusations of environmental disruption, bilateral
diplomacy, business relations, the list goes on all on top of the standard political risk of Basket
Case country where changes happen fast and frequently. However, we as retail have
advantages, in this case we can enter and leave the Basket Case country more nimbly than the
big money needed to buy, develop and operate a world class porphyry copper mine in the high
Andes. The job of the Lundins and Mr Beck may be to invest U$3Bn and build a mine over
years, mine is simply to buy low and sell high and could happen in weeks.
An overview of Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v)
It’s taken this long to get to the target of our trade, Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v), as the
major duck to get in line is less the company and more the political backdrop. However, we
now do a brief overview to remind of the company. Aldebaran (ALDE.v) was formed by a three-
cornered combination deal in 2018. Ostensibly a spin-out of Regulus Resources (REG.v), REG
added its Argentina assets at the time (Rio Grande, plus some early stage gold assets) and the
brains trust of John Black, Kevin Heather, Mark Wayne and others from their core team, its
regular financial backer Route One (of SF USA) added cash and the owner of Altar at that time,
Sibanye-Stillwater (SBSW), put in the right for ALDE to earn up to 80% of the asset. However,
those of us around at the time also know the spin-out process was problematic, taking from
early summer until November to get listing approval from the BCSC. Once it eventually opened
for trading, action was a one-way street (and even then, US investors of REG receiving spin-out
shares found it very difficult to get them registered correctly, and the company didn’t help
much). On a personal level, that REG was monetizing its Argentina assets was enough reason
5

for me to eventually sell my shares, though at a much lower price than I expected.
That was then and this is now, the dust has settled on ALDE shares and these days, the
company share structure is still dominated by major backer Route One, with 47.6% of shares
out and SBSW and its 19.9% strategic position. Management and directors hold over 6%,
having recently participated in the financing. Regarding management, the news here is good
despite my own personal run-ins with the people involved over their mis-management of
Regulus Resources (REG.v). Here the job and company is much simpler, there’s no community
risk to speak of (you wouldn’t want be up there for more than 24 hours without specialist
equipment) and San Juan has the bureaucracy for mining companies. At ALDE, this team can
get on with doing the things they are good at, i.e. geology, and not fail at CSR or macro
political risk calls. Al the main players have skin in the game and the recent top-ups show they
are confident of success.
An overview of the financials at ALDE finds no red flags and a small company run in the tight
style of Antares and early Regulus. In these charts we file the latest reported quarter (to
December 31st), plus a best guess of the situation now, half way through 2q21, now the
placement is closed. A simple and clean balance sheet, with treasury topped up by shares when
depleted in classic style. Liabilities are tiny (check the Y-axis) and of no concern at all.
ALDE.v: Assets per qtr
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
The working cap chart is enough for a basic gauge of typical cash burn and the underlying
number is small, around $1m per quarter when not drilling. We also see the recent placement,
which started at $5m and was upsized to finish at $9.3m, ALDE getting its timing right.
The share count is up to 124.3m after the recent placement. With this weekend’s C$0.495
share price, that makes ALDE C$61.52m market capper and less than a tenth the price of Filo
Mining (FIL.v) now we know more about its high sulphidation feeder hit.
The Altar project
Not so long ago, ALDE’s up to 80% owned Altar was totally out of fashion and low down on
anyone’s list of copper projects to buy, your author very much included (I sold the spin-out
6
81.ced 91.ram ey91.nuj 91.pes 91.ced 02.ram ey02.nuj 02.pes 02.ced WON
C$m fixed ALDE.v: Liabilities per qtr
other current 1.0
cash 0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
source: company filings
81.ced 91.ram ey91.nuj 91.pes 91.ced 02.ram ey02.nuj 02.pes 02.ced WON
source: company filings, IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT debt
current debt
ALDE.v: Working Capital per qtr
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
81.ced 91.ram ey91.nuj 91.pes 91.ced 02.ram ey02.nuj 02.pes 02.ced WON
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
ALDE.v: Shares outstanding
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
91.ram ey91.nuj 91.pes 91.ced 02.ram ey02.nuj 02.pes 02.ced WON
source: company filings, IKN ests

shares received). Now for sure “At four dollar copper they all make sense”, but in a secular bull
market for copper that will keep prices high for many years, what you want is size. We may go
back to lower copper prices later in the cycle, but the only as an integral part of this larger,
structural bull market. The days of U$1.50/lb copper are gone forever, simply because that
price doesn’t even cover op-ex now, while $2.00 and $2.50/lb are likely confined to history, too.
Until such a technological replacement is found for the metal (decades, minimum) demand for
copper will cause both its cost and its price to increase.
Altar has size at low grade, as you can see in its latest corporate presentation on this link (4),
dated April 2021 (likely to be updated in the next few days to incorporate the new financial
data). Also, find here (5) the recently delivered 43-101 technical report, from which we get the
current resource snapshot:
Already at over 11Bn lbs Cu M+I, plus plenty of gold and silver credits, Altar is big. Its low
grade aspect used to be an impediment at these days it doesn’t get more than a shrug of the
shoulders. Agreed “Filo would be nicer”, but the future of copper mining is in low grade
deposits, particularly ones with large bulk potential and a suite of operational factors that would
keep costs low.
Altar also has location, as seen here on the only other slide I will steal from the corporate
presentation.
The other point to make about Altar is that ALDE believes they’ve hardly scratched the surface
at the project. The absolute size of the mineralized area means they have a wealth of targets
7

on site and they expect to improve on size, as well as improve baseline project economics by
concentrating work on high grade “starter pit” areas. Once again I will defer to the company’s
own promotional literature available at its website, because aside from establishing the veracity
of Altar, this report is unusual in that it’s not predicated directly on the company, instead, ALDE
has remained constant while the world around it changed, and changed to such an extent as to
make the stock an obvious buy.
Discussion and conclusion
Ultimately, the story of Aldebaran and Altar is that of ducks coming into line:
Duck One: The new high copper prices are here to stay, which means low grade, high
tonnage, high Andean is back in high fashion.
Duck Two: The Argentina national government moves from pan-national to pro-provincial
mining policies.
Duck Three: San Juan moves to take full advantage and will promote its miner-friendly
credentials
Duck Four: Other LatAm regions worsening political risk for mining, improving the relative
aspect of San Juan
Duck Five: ALDE has done its legwork, filed a baseline 43-101 technical report and is now
drilling and exploring its project, with newsflow soon.
Then last week a final duck came into line, the catalyst that woke this desk up to the trade
opportunity. The Filo Del Sol hole is set to give Argentine mining the political momentum of
project that won’t be stopped, “The World’s Biggest Mine Is Argentine” is all it would take for
Buenos Aires to stop worrying about glaciers so much. The game-changer hole reported by Filo
Mining (FIL.v) last week will open not only that project, but the whole province to a new round
of investment capital. ALDE, by fortune or otherwise, now finds itself in prime position to
benefit. We could of course avoid the speculative angle and go straight for the motherlode, buy
FIL.v and be done. That’s fair enough, but the speculative potential of buying over 11Bn lbs of
copper at less than 0.5c/lb in the same region LatAm’s next big copper mine is far more
attractive. As the FIL news sank in and it became clear that mine was going to happen, it
became clear that the better bet was San Juan province and all mining companies who work
there. Therefore the envisaged trade is on ALDE and I plan to buy this coming week and add
the stock to the open ‘Stocks to Follow’ list, as from next weekend. We should have drill results
in due course, then if this team uses its standard pattern we get a marketing push 3q21, then
drilling and more results as from 4q21 and into 2022. This allows a full year of window for the
trade, which won’t set formal price target as yet.
8

Stocks to Follow
A risk-off week that saw the market sell mining stocks then buy them back later, the pattern
illustrated five day chart of GDX vs GDXJ, with the
larger caps losing less through Thursday, then
recovering equally as sharply as the smaller caps.
The result is a positive week for the sector thanks to
gold and late buying, but juniors were left behind
and as a result, the house portfolio saw no fewer
than nine losers, including both Top Picks Minera
Alamos (MAI.v) and Rio2 (RIO.v) plus the big drops
in QC Copper (QCCU.v down 12.8%) and Excelsior
(MIN.to down 25.9%). There was one UNCH stock
(AUL.v), which leaves five winners (TMQ, NGD,
ORE.v, MIRL.cse, MENE.v) that were headed by the
12.6% improvement in Trilogy Metals (TMQ) as that
stock played a welcome game of catch-up to its copper peers.
We currently have 15 open positions on our list, the house maximum that gets broken
shamelessly next week by opening on Aldebaran (ALDE.v).
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.65 209.5% New $1.14 tgt Aug'20 #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.79 -4.8% $1.58 tgt, bot again Nov'20
Recommended stocks (In order of preference)
Trilogy Metals TMQ STR BUY U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$2.68 45.7% Added Dec'20, Cu for 2021
Strategic Metals SMD.v STR BUY C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.445 6.0% Asset $ trade, proj generator
New Gold NGD STR BUY U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$1.83 140.8% tgt $2.80 end '21
Excelsior Mining MIN.to STR BUY C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.63 -32.3% Delayed, but still great value
QC Copper &Gold QCCU.v BUY C$0.205 25-Apr-21 C$0.205 0.0% New Cu exploreco
Royal Road Min. RYR.v BUY C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.34 119.4% Model paying off in Nica
Wolfden Res. WLF.v BUY C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.295 -1.7% near-term Zn trade
Great Bear Res GBR.v BUY C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$14.34 -9.4% Binary M&A trade, wait for print
Cartier Resources ECR.v hold C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.27 -15.6% Binary M&A trade, wait for print
Orezone Gold ORE.v BUY C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.22 54.4% Binary M&A trade, wait for print
Aurelius Min. AUL.v spec buy C$0.75 28-Jun-20 C$0.60 -20.0% added 3 times, risky
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.095 -51.2% CEO change will move stock
Long-term non-mining hold
Mene Inc. MENE.v LT Hold C$0.62 6-Dec-20 C$0.57 -8.1% LT bet on jockey&horse,will add
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Mining NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
2015 to 2020 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered stocks:
Excelsior Mining (MIN.to): This is not going to plan:
9

We write it up, we assure all is well, it drops another 13% I a week. Not good at all, so Friday
morning saw MIN address the price weakness via this NR (6). It didn’t do much else than
remind readers of the updated plan for 2021, though we do note the amount of recovered
copper has popped from 185,000 lbs to 230,000 lbs,
nowhere near commercial of course, but a step in the
right direction. Then this tweet last week from
company chair Mark Morabito shows C-suite is hearing
the complaints as well, but its contents leave
something to be desired (7):
To begin, I agree with Morabito’s above statement.
However his critics are right, the message sounds a
little strained and the optics are not good for a chair
willing to talk up the shares but leave the actual
buying to others. A 50k block purchase would have
impressed me more than a Tweet, but we remind
readers that Morabito is little more than a figurehead
at the company and that one of main backer
Greenstone’s stipulations when coming on board was
that he didn’t have any or much executive control. I
suspect he is as frustrated as the rest of us with the
delays in commissioning, getting flak but somewhat
hamstrung in what he can do, therefore that tweet.
But the end, it’s all notes in the margin. The market
has taken to hating on MIN just because, sellers are
now begetting sellers and the stock sold off sharply
on a medium sized insto position that would not be an
issue for other companies or at other times. Copper
name or not, MJN is not generating bids and when the seller came, it ran the stops.
The continued selling just days after my “All Is Well” note of last week brought mails and
feedback, though notably more “is this a buy opportunity” type queries than complaints. Not an
easy question to answer for somebody else’s back pocket, so here’s how I put it to reader DS
when he asked:
If were 28 years old again with enough time to go to zero and make it over if
needed, I could tell the world what it wants to hear: Go all-in, HODL, get
zealous on social media. But I'm not.
The bottom line: The brutal reality is that you must hold if you believe CEO Twyerould fixes the
MIN glitches and sell if you do not. I hold, as the company makes a better and more compelling
case than its detractors.
10

Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Noting that company President Doug Ramshaw had been active
buying shares of his company on the open market again last week (52,500 on the week. That
makes 82.5k on the month and adds to the 55k he bought March and the figurehead at MAI
has been very busy eating his own cooking, recently. So have Invesco, by the way, the large
investment house with U$13.9Bn has a small natural resources fund that has been buying MAI
stock relentlessly for six months, all open market, to build its current position of around 11m
shares. They must be pleased with the entry price.
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): We got the first assay NR out of QCCU last week, the headline
numbers coming in largely as expected. The market doesn’t seem to understand the
significance of those long, low-grading intercepts as yet and that does not surprise me. That’s
likely to continue, right up to the moment the company files a 43-101. In trading, the stock
went back to my cost average.
Orezone (ORE.v): On the face of it, ORE had
a great week but that late swoosh higher
didn’t come on massive volume (242k traded
Friday) and we’ve seen this stock attempt and
fail to break this level on previous occasions.
Personally a moot point, this trade remains
binary and I’ll hold until ORE finds its buyer
(or doubles on the re-rate into production,
less likely but possible)
Trilogy Metals (TMQ): In the CEO’s May
2021 letter to shareholders, CEO Giardini
confirmed the start of the 2021 drill season,
marked the program at 14,600m and todl us
to expect news later in the year on results, which means TMQ is back to its normal annual cycle
and has put Covid-19 behind. The letter also confirmed the Ambler Metals JV was on track to
file its Notice of Intent with the US Army Corp of Engineers 2H21, a milestone moment that
starts the ball rolling on the permitting process for the main construction and operation permits.
In trading, TMQ woke up a little on volume. Last weekend, it looked particularly cheap next to
peers, this weekend it’s merely cheaper.
Aurelius Minerals (AUL.v): I don’t know why AUL didn’t announce the closing of Tranche
Two of its placement, but assuming it closes in the days ahead there won’t be an issue. In
trading the stock drifted as we await news, no buying interest until we have a catalyst.
Great Bear (GBR.v): You won’t see me plugging many of the “news about upcoming news”
NRs that junior mining companies like to as fillers, but there are exceptions. On Monday GBR
announced (8) a webinar to detail “...recent progress in the Company's ongoing fully-funded
drill program at its 100% owned Dixie property in the Red Lake district of Ontario.” The webinar
is live, there will a Q&A session afterward and happens Monday, June 7th at 11:00 am PDT /
2:00 pm EDT. The link to the conference is on the NR and it’s a date that any long needs in
their calendar.
The Copper Basket
After nineteen weeks of 2021, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 38.55% to level stakes.
11

company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.08 107.53 1147.35 10.67 75.5%
2 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 1.81 207.5 921.30 4.44 145.3%
3 Oroco Res OCO.v 1.85 186.96 622.58 3.33 80.0%
4 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.25 87.737 424.65 4.84 48.9%
5 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.80 181.79 281.77 1.55 93.8%
6 Western Copper WRN.to 1.57 135.798 270.24 1.99 26.8%
7 Excelsior Min. MIN.to 1.12 273.585 172.36 0.63 -43.8%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.07 101.85 81.48 0.80 -25.2%
9 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.455 125.24 62.62 0.50 9.9%
10 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.115 438.56 61.40 0.14 34.8%
11 Doré Copper DCMC.v 1.00 53.304 54.90 1.03 3.0%
12 Chakana Cop PERU.v 0.60 111.41 46.79 0.42 -30.0%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.45 68.281 27.31 0.40 -11.1%
14 US Copper USCU.v 0.105 87.53 21.88 0.25 138.1%
15 Chibougamau CBG.v 0.165 53.077 12.74 0.24 45.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 38.55%
The Copper Basket took a step back from its
The Copper Basket 2021, weekly evolution
recent record run, but with two big winners 50%
to leaven the blows, the basket average lost 45%
40%
just one percentage point on the week. A big
35%
ten were losers (SLS.to, CMMC.to, WRN.to,
30%
MIN.to, MARI.to, REG.v, PERU.v, CCCM.v, 25%
DCMC.v, USCU.v) but five made it to the win 20%
15%
column (OCO.v, ARG.to, ALDE.v, ECU.v,
10%
CBG.v) and two were big winners, namely 5%
the 24.8% put on by Oroco Resources 0%
(OCO.v) and the 50.0% week-over-week
gain in Chibougamau (CBG.v), as that stock’s
land potential finally twigged with a wider
audience. The move in our basket minnow alone added 3% to the overall average.
As for the losers, the biggest was also the most painful, Excelsior Mining (MIN.to) down 25.9%
on the week, that from an already discounted price at which I’d been a happy recent buyer. Not
so happy now, but as seen in other places, the only change around this continued selling is its
depth, as company circumstances have not changed. There were several other bigger losers in
the list, but the only other double figure loss came from Doré Copper (DCMC.v down 12.7%).
“I want it all, I want it all, I want it all, And I want it now”: Freddie Mercury
The world demanding five dollar copper for the next ten years became frustrated last week, we
finally found the top:
12
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ht01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yam ht9 ht61
source: IKN calcs

However, there’s nothing in that chart to shake a copper bull, the metal found its near-term
blow-off top and then settled into high volume trading to find the new floor. That looks as
though it was successfully tested late week around the U$4.60/lb line and the breakout of the
week before has held nicely. Which is what this desk expected, there was and still is serious
volume behind copper now, it’s become an A-List trade. Less Freddie Mercury and more
Hannibal Lecter, all good things to those who wait.
A closer look at trading shows pressure coming off, however. Three weeks ago I cobbled
together a chart to demonstrate the strong backwardation in copper at that time, last week it
repeated, so for a third and most likely final time for our ad-hoc dataset, this week’s chart
shows a difference of between 1.5c and 2c lifted taken from the 2021 backwardation of longer-
dated contracts over the week:
COMEX Copper contracts, at Friday close
4.80
4.78
4.76
4.74
4.72
4.70
4.68
4.66
4.64
4.62
4.60
13
yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 22naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced
U$/lb
May.7
May.14
source: COMEX
The tapering in the 2021 contracts is clear, with copper now basically flat and the
backwardation pressure largely lifted, unless you need the metal now and will pay cash.
In macro news, two from China. The first is moot, rather than a positive or negative but we
need to start considering the potential for China to dump on the copper market. These days, as
China’s economy becomes more sophisticated it gets easier to control successfully by central
planners. For example, China’s Central Bank new loans in April came to 1.47Billion Yuan, which
is 85% lower than the same, Covid-influenced month of last year when the world was in
“whatever it takes” mode”. The TSF measure of overall outstanding credit in China is seeing
reduced growth, at 2020 YE the raw number stood at 284.83 Trillion Yuan. That was up 13.3%
YoY, but the rhythm is now dropping, with TSF up 12.3% YoY in March and last week’s reading,
11.7% in April. China is tightening its internal purse strings, obviously as keen to avoid a sharp
inflation spike as anywhere else. This is going to take the edge off growth numbers in the
medium-term, the most explosive part of the pandemic recovery is now obviously behind us.
The second is more interesting, as last week Chinese metals researchers Antaike announced
that a group of 15 Chinese smelters had come to an agreement to lower concentrate purchases
by 8.8% this year. Ostensibly to comply with new environmental regulations, the move is seen
by the market as an attempt to prop their own flagging TC/RC rates as the market thirsts
copper at any cost. If nothing else, another signal China is watching the copper price carefully.
We move to our regular weekly copper inventories coverage, bullish data again:
 The nascent trend breaks and, against the grain, world copper inventories aggregate
rose last week by 13,931 metric tonnes (mt) (+3.5%) to close the week back over the
400k line, at 408,394mt.
 The main anomaly was at the SHFE, a new and seasonally-late inflow of 20,706mt last
week (+9.9%) saw total inventories close Friday to 2229,179mt. Only one week ago,
this desk was calling the end of the re-stock period, so with this thrown in my face
there’s re-thinking to do. See below.

 Meanwhile at the LME it was business more as usual, another 5,475mt coming off
stocks, most of that from the famously “sticky” New Orleans depot that, due to location
and demand, has a Roach Motel reputation for stocks. In fact, the 4,650mt delivered
out last week was over half the stocks it has left, its total already down 80% this year.
The LME total closed at 121,250mt, very tight.
 At the COMEX, another small inventory drop of 1,300mt, taking stocks down to
57,965mt. Tight in The USA, too.
Here is the Shanghai-only inventories chart, and a visual of that surprise addition
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
14
ht5naj ht61 ht52 dr3gua ht21 ts12 5102
ts1ram
ht01 ht91 ht72 ht6ced ht41 ht42 6102
dr3luJ
ht11 ht72 ht5beF ht61 ht52 7102
dr3pes
ht21 ts12 8102
ts1rpa
ht71 ht62 8102
ht4von
9102
ht31naj
ht42 9102
dn2nuj
ht11 ht02 ht92 ht8 ht71 0202ht62luj ht4tco 0202ht31ced ts12 1202dn2yam
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
Could this be the start of that rumoured drop of China’s strategic reserve onto the market? It
wouldn’t show with deliveries to SHFE or LME, more a sudden lack of appetite from regular
end-users who suddenly find another willing supplier. Now for some notes on a few basket
stocks:
The Peru copper stocks (REG.v, PERU.v, CCCM.v, ECU.v): We’re now far enough out
from the shock Round One result to consider the YTD chart of this little group. On doing so, we
note another negative week for the group aside ECU.v, which added 2c. But more interesting is
the stock that has bucked the annual trend:
C3 Metals (CCCM.v): Let’s applaud the promotion and marketing in C3 Metals (CCCM.v),
they’ve somehow managed to avoid gravity and keep track of the COPX benchmark despite its
tough location. This is another minor miracle of Vancouver and probably connected with this,
the C$6.3m financing that closed on January 25th, some 112 days ago. As we are just nine days
from the magic 121 days and drill results are due from the first round of its 2021 program at
some point in the near future, your author gets the feeling this stock is about to wake up.
We’re expecting good results from the first round of assays, this is the type of company that
deliberately twins old known holes in order to guarantee a headline. As it also pays for
Vancouver marketing and coverage, there will also be noise. Overall, C3 Metals is an excellent

example of the type of company and people the Canadian mining industry should ban and jail,
that they do nothing illegal is beside the point, the moral repugnance would be enough to
create laws in any self-respecting country.
Chibougamau (CBG.v): From the start, the idea of including this tinycap was to watch how
land prices for copper assets might benefit a trade. Last week the dam broke and the world
woke up to the size of CBG’s package, as well as its local land influence, compared to its tiny
market cap.
The Producer Basket
After nineteen weeks of 2021, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 0.05% to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out Mkt Cap (U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 59.89 805 56.95 70.75 18.1%
2 Barrick GOLD 22.78 1778.04 42.71 24.02 5.4%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 70.51 244.187 17.27 70.72 0.3%
4 Kirkland Lake KL 41.27 267.056 11.07 41.47 0.5%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 7.34 1261.07 9.81 7.78 6.0%
6 Pan American PAAS 34.71 210.262 6.51 30.95 -10.8%
7 Endeavour Min EDV.to 29.62 252.568 5.80 27.55 -7.0%
8 B2Gold BTG 5.60 1051.697 5.36 5.10 -8.9%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 8.75 392.739 3.42 8.70 -0.6%
10 Pretium Res PVG 11.48 187.833 2.10 11.19 -2.5%
Prices in U$ except EDV.to (share price in CAD$ and mkt cap in approx USD) Port. avg 0.05%
We stayed in the green by the thinnest of margins, but the damage done by having equal
weighted stocks when the large caps are in fashion continues. We’re now 5% behind the GDX
benchmark for 2021, testament to the nervous atmosphere for mining stocks other than the
biggest of the big, where cash flow and dividends rule. The performance of our ten stocks was
highly indicative of last week’s market, with the rich getting richer and the poor…well, richer as
well but not so much. Five of our six winners on the week are the biggest five market cappers,
NEM GOLD AEM KL and KGC joined by EDV.to. The losers were PAAS on its poor earnings (see
below), plus the tier 2 sixed BTG, PVG and AGI, all of which reported in-line earnings. In other
words it was the week to hold large caps and that also shows in our above table, the split of
green ink and red ink almost too perfect.
Our tracking charts show the resulting mess; GDX rose due to its higher weighting of Tier 1
stocks, we dropped thanks to the weight of the PAAS drop. This isn’t going to be my year
against the market, it seems.
The 2021 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and 10%
comparative to GDX control
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
Pan American Silver (PAAS): Among the several 1q21 numbers filed last week, the 1q21
miss from PAAS and subsequent sharp price drop is the most interesting of the week. It also
15
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The 2021 Producer Basket: Percentage difference between
GDX benchmark and basket (negative = IKN basket ahead)
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0% basket
gdx control 1.0%
0.0%
source: Google, IKN Calcs
ts1
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ht01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yam ht9 ht61
source: IKN calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq/TSX data

caught my eye as a newly minted silver bull, of course. There’s enough in this report to
continue to like PAAS at its new price deck and the declaration of the 7c dividend would have
helped calm the longer-term holders. Yes, Q1 was a clear miss with lower production and
thinner gross margins than normal and yes, 2021 guidance was dropped for silver (not for
gold), but the explanation of “workplace shortfalls” at La Colorada/Dolores in Mexico and at
Manantial Espejo in Argentina due to Covid-19 related matters at least fits the backdrop of both
countries’ virus issues. It also shows a corporate mistake, that Canada was too optimistic about
the effect of Covid-19 on its mine assets in LatAm, but while a mistake it’s “errare humanum
est” and not evidence of bad direction. As a result, silver-only guidance is down 2m oz for 2021
with the top end at 22m oz pure Ag (no gold or other metals in equivalents, they are
considered separately).
However, a look further into the numbers sees a company in good financial shape. Examples of
good but latent things include inventories, which rose by over U$52m on the quarter. Some
$21m of that is due to back-ups on the heap leach production, but another $17.5m is
concentrate inventory and that’s basically treasury-in-waiting. And debt or no debt the balance
sheet is fine. As for the Q1 results themselves, PAAS did itself no favours with a headline net
loss of U$7.562m. Unsurprising that its mines are profitable at these silver levels, margins are
good and PAAS reported earnings from ops of U$73.296m (35c/share). That’s a forward 22X on
operations and obviously expensive, but we already know the issue and hopefully, Covid-19 will
not affect day-to-day business life as much in the future. The reasons that turned op profit into
loss are the tax bill paid (U$37.977m) and the derivative loss on metals carried by PAAS
(U$39.033m), which has most effect in quarters where we see big price changes. The debt pile
comes with the show at PAAS, the corporate
strategy has always been to raise capital via debt
or shares that come with specific hedge
requirements to satisfy backers. Those ticket items
big, but they are part of life and don’t affect every
quarter as badly (something of the “kitchen sink”
about this one).
PAAS gets flak for its CSR image, the Escobal
situation and also Chubut and Navidad are going
nowhere, but those negatives were baked into the
price a long time ago and not even the bad news
out of Chubut will affect the price. Before last
week, PAAS shares were the epitome of Market Perform and in lockstep with silver ETF, SIL. It’s
now under that line, but this quarter was an aberration rather than a disaster and for those so
inclined, a good entry point assuming silver stays in range.
The Tiny Dogs
After nineteen weeks of 2021, the Tiny Dogs show a gain of 8.24% to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Antler Gold ANTL.v 0.205 61.348 9.20 0.15 -26.8%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.045 163.975 8.20 0.05 11.1%
Constantine Met CEM.v 0.17 45.4 12.03 0.265 55.9%
Contact Gold C.v 0.115 240.757 21.67 0.09 -21.7%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.22 40 5.40 0.135 38.6%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.045 230.79 21.93 0.095 111.1%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.240 106.241 15.94 0.15 -37.5%
QC Copper QCCU.v 0.315 105 21.53 0.205 -34.9%
Red Pine Expl RPX.v 0.400 95.806 67.06 0.70 75.0%
Warrior Gold WAR.v 0.090 91.818 7.35 0.08 -11.1%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 8.24%
16

This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
We’ve noted the out-performance of the big cap miners and the relative under-performance of
the mid-caps and juniors on the week. It’s not
going to come as much surprise, therefore, to Tiny Dogs, 2021 weekly tracker
20%
note the smallest companies of the lot were the 18%
worst performers. Our Tiny Dogs list continues to 16%
14%
do a decent job of indicating the space, with its 12%
nine losers on the week and just one winner, the 10%
8%
11.1% added by Aston Bay (BAY.v).
6%
4%
However, the losers were all modest and inside 2%
0%
trading ranges and the 12.8% lost by QCCU.v
was the worst of the damage. There’s no rush
for the door going on, it was just another quiet
week on thin volumes.
Contact Gold (C.v): C.v sent out its AGM/SGM material, including its change of domicile
instructions, so no surprise to see this:
When a company gives no reason to buy and plenty of reasons to sell, it is what happens.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It is possible that in the
future I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, but at the moment both my opinion and my wallet are strictly
neutral.
Regional politics
A Covid-19 update for Brazil, Peru and Mexico
The region is in some sort of transition phase as regards Covid-19. With abundant evidence
17
ts1
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ht71 ts13 ht41 ht82 ht41 ht82 ht11 ht52 ht9
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

coming in from the North that widespread vaccination programs work (above all, death rates)
and even a local example of what can go right and wrong with a regional program thanks to
the swift start and then mistakes made by Chile, the continent is in a strange transition period,
waiting its turn in the vaccination queues but also watching (and occasionally emulating the
new habits they see from the North, people going maskless in Peru because that’s what they
are doing on Miami Beach. I shrug. Today we focus in on three mining countries and their
different moments against the virus. First stop is the continent’s dirty neighbour Brazil, where
infections are still running at a dizzying rate:
Worse since we last featured this occasional series, but you’re unlikely to be surprised after the
world headlines Brazil and India have been making in the last couple of weeks. A formal
process of investigation against Jair Bolsonaro and his government’s response to Covid-19 has
begun and all that is likely to play into the hands of Lula da Silva, now clear frontrunner for
next year’s Presidential election.
But there is good news. It’s relative-only, because 2,000+ deaths per day is still a crazily high
number, but the chart below is a fair reflection of the improvement in the death rate since
Brazil started to roll out its vaccination program. With eldest getting their shots first, the good
news should now keep coming.
Not the same story in Peru to date, its slow crawl vaccination program only now getting to the
70+ age range. As a result, death rates have stayed high compared to places like Brazil.
18

Peru’s election process has made for more crowds and infections as well. The difference
between Peru and Brazil today shows the economic effects of Covid-19. Brazil will get back to
speed quicker, as people fear less home infections that might kill an old member of the family,
now vaccinated. In other words, we’re seeing a better correlation between economic recovery
and the death rates, rather than the infection rates.
Meanwhile in Mexico, the country’s stats have fallen victim to the populist curse. No matter
whether left or right, the crude attempts by governments large and small to massage their
figures in order to look good (style over substance, or perhaps life style over real death) are
evident. Russia, Brazil, The USA and Mexico are classics and this chart showing the smooth and
rapid decline of Covid-19 infections in the country is so far removed from reality that it serves
as a different kind of visual aid.
When Covid-19’s history is written AMLO won’t go down as badly as Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, but
his admin’s shameful response to the pandemic has cost thousands of lives that needn’t have
been lost. Populism.
Ecuador: Pachakutik takes the Congress presidency
Yesterday Saturday saw a key moment in Ecuador, when new member of Congress Guadalupe
Llori of the indigenous Pachakutik party was voted up as President of the assembly for the next
two years with 71 votes out of 135. Tellingly, she was jailed for environmental activism during
the Correa administration (9). She was supported by President-elect Guillermo Lasso’s CREO
party and the loose alliance means CREO and Pachakutik worked together in order to defeat the
Correa/Arauz UNES party bloc. Anyone who thinks Ecuador is suddenly welcoming toward
mining just because Yaku Pérez was squeezed out of the second round vote is going to have
some lessons to learn in 2021.
Meanwhile, this profile piece (10) on Ecuador’s new environmental leader published by
Associated Press in Spanish last week (it may exist in English, couldn’t find it for free) makes for
interesting reading, as it focuses on Yaku Pérez’s “Third Way” credentials as he makes a point
of criticizing left and right wing governments around him: Some of his translated words:
Peru regarding Pedro Castillo: “If you are going to implement a Marxist model, don’t blame
Marx. He was a theorist, a philosopher, a first-rate economist but for his time”.
Peru regarding Keiko Fujimori: “She’s an extremist, Peru gives me great sadness (at the
moment).”
Colombia: “The Colombian people are no Langer afraid and have taken to the streets, but
the forces of the State were so powerful that it shocked me….it’s supremely painful to see
the death and bloodshed continue.”
Bolivia, regarding new left wing President Luis Arce: “Sadly, he’s going to continue with
extractive economics, the exploitation of lithium in communities, in places such as the
Uyuni salt flats.”
19

Venezuela: “So many Venezuelans have left the country for Colombia, Ecuador, Peru,
scattered everywhere. (Nicolas Maduro) is re-elected falsely and that makes him a
dictator.”
The USA: “The presence of Joe Biden is a good sign. He’s a democrat with common sense
and so far, it’s right to applaud what he’s done (against Covid-19). But “Empire is Empire”,
at some point The USA will show its imperial nature.”
It’s not going to be easy to pigeonhole Yaku and his newly powerful Pachakutik congressional
party in the years to come, aside from the basic fact that he wants all metals mining banned in
the country.
Peru election update
Two opinion polls to report plus some commentary this week,
though with three weeks to go it’s only hardcore political junkies
(EDIT: Guilty as charged) who need pages on Peru’s election.
First up the polls, starting with pollster Datum (traditionally right
wing leaning) which announced this on Frida (right):
Datum calls it 44% for Pedro Castillo and 41% for Keiko
Fujimori, with this graphic from a large circulation daily also
showing the regional breakdown as well as 15% who will either
leave their ballot paper un-marked, or spoil it. Second, another
poll from busy company IEP for the centre-left national La
Republica today Sunday, which snapshots like this (below) (11):
IEP has basically no change on
the week, which would mean
Castillo wins as this poll covers
all margins of error. Finally also today Sunday, Peru’s flagship pollster IPSOS published their
most complete voter intention survey to date, which included real simulation of voting (which
has been shown to reduce the number of undecided or spoiled ballot decisions. Here’s the front
page of Peru’s newspaper of record, El Comercio today:
20

As for commentary, it’s clear the race is tightening and the tendency is for most “undecided” to
move to the Keiko camp. Here in the capital Lima, the wholesale distaste of the prospect of
voting for Keiko Fujimori is akin to the year in which France voted Jacques Chirac for his final
term, ahead of Jean Marie Le Pen, but the capital has clearly decided its “least worst” and all
polls reflect that. However, from the start we’ve seen polls undercounting the regional influence
and, unfortunately, this election is a bit of a throwback in that it’s not gong to be decided
online, or via social media declarations. The majority of Peruvians live in rural zones, they are
not being picked up on surveys and they are the cause of the massive round one shock. It’s
worth remembering that even the last minute polls for round one that caught the late surge in
Castillo’s popularity undercounted his final 19% total by between five and nine points.
The bottom line: In IKN622 dated April 25th, the weekend of the first detailed IEP survey that
reacted to the round one result by putting put Castillo 20 points ahead, your author
underscored the way that poll had thrown iced-cold water over Lima and stated clearly, “Be like
Lima today: No more dreams of comebacks, no false hopes. Castillo wins this, period.” Sinc the,
there’s been a wave of hope about Peru as polls tighten, but you will forgive me if I ignore that
and continue to assume the worst for June 5th. Aside from the fact that the prospect of five
years of a Keiko government would fill this desk with dread and the outside world has no idea
of the can of worms it would open, let’s just say it’s not a “least worst” with much appeal for
the average Peruvian. Instead, we’re now at the point where plenty of people have listened to
the political debate and have decided to toe the establishment line and “save democracy by not
voting for the Communist”. In other words, the Keiko strategy is working but that might change
in the next three weeks. Today Sunday, the whore Left only starts its “broad front coalition”
campaign part of that is surely telling people the right wing is just scaring them- Polls may
change again, but one thing all polls indicate is how we are now hard up against the “Never
Keiko” voters, those who have sworn on all holy books that they would never vote for a
Fujimori again. They have eroded down from 70% to around 50%, but recent polls all have her
anti-vote stuck there, while Castillo’s revolves around 36%. But poll numbers or not, this desk
still cannot see Castillo losing and then the bad things begin.
Finally, I’m keenly aware that an eventual Keiko win would cause a major rally in all things
Peruvian (stocks, bonds, currency etc) as an immediate reaction, no matter how well or badly
things go afterward. For that reason we pay attention, but for the moment its risk is too great
to the downside and there’s way too much uncertainty, even for a contrarian bet. The more risk
tolerant among you may note that bonds would be a decent bet whoever wins, as this
weekend’s news is Kurt Burneo is heading the economics team. He is left wing but reasonably
orthodox, Peru wouldn’t suddenly renege on the world markets under such a pick, the choice of
Burneo another indication that the way forward will be via the raising of State burdens on
mining, rather than any sort of appropriation policy. All part of Castillo’s near-certain shift
toward the centre as the campaign reaches its climax. However and equally, the Peruvian Sol
(PEC) will also weaken whoever wins, as the next administration will inherit a country that has
added substantially to its sovereign debt while raiding its own International Reserves in order to
get through the Covid-19 pandemic. Throw in a sudden retreat of FDI if Castillo gets in and the
picture is not great for Peru gong forward. Avoid.
Colombia update
The protests and near-riot conditions have calmed somewhat, but protests continue in Colombia
over the Duque tax law initiative that claimed the lives of 42 people, have left 90 people
missing and over 1,000 injured. Duque’s decision to heed his own strike ad-hoc committee,
withdraw the tax reform bill and now offer financial benefits to rank and file Colombians (e.g.
school registry is now free, normally a big annual cost) shows how far he over-played his hand
and how weak he looks today. In the words of one protester in the city of Calí, “He messed
with the people who have nothing to lose.” (12). As for mining, as expected the largely urban
protests have had little effect on daily operations.
The Chile royalty update
Despite rumours of a potential quick passage to the law project through the second upper
21

house in Chile, the Senate didn’t debate the law it now has on its hands and the debating and
lobbying continues. However, the mining companies seem to have accepted that burdens will
rise and their efforts are more on the amounts involved. For the pay dirt quote we turn to Diego
Hernández, one of Chile’s mining oligarch stalwarts and currently president of the “Sociedad
Nacional de Minería (Sonami)”, which will need no translating. He said last week (translated)
(13):
“….this is a Project that hasn’t been well thought out. They haven’t done the
calculations well and it will have to be modified, in order to try and capture a little
more (State revenue) while prices are high, but when they drop it cannot bankrupt
companies that have high costs. That is what would happen with the law at the
moment, that would happen.”
It’s also an issue that will likely get Chile’s Congress dragging its feet all through 2021, leaving
the decisions to the next government. We reiterate our opinion, this is a false polemic.
Market Watching
Deferring on McEwen Mining (MUX)
You may accuse me of being cute or a tease, which I will deny, but at least understand your
point of view. After spending the first part of the week on the McEwen Mining (MUX) financials,
then dropping them as the significance of the Filo Mining (FIL.v) hole became apparent, then
revisiting them for some time this weekend and adding DD, I’ve decided to put another week
into them before forming an opinion. Around Saturday afternoon I realized that I didn’t know
enough and as there doesn’t seem to be any urgency to get long MUX, after nearly a decade of
tracking the stock I’m going to allow myself another seven days before publishing.
Therefore and annoyingly, The IKN Weekly remains enigmatic on MUX for one more edition on
the stock and its trade potential. However, it traded well enough last week and got through the
Monday open and Conference Call on its mediocre 1q21 largely unscathed. MUX sold off end
week, then again so did my gold stocks and there was no real harm done to any of them. As a
potential MUX long, I was looking for more negativity from the market last week but did not get
it, therefore adding another week’s worth of trading information will probably help the decision
as well. Until IKN626.
An eye on the Roxgold (ROXG.to) side bet
The ten-day chart (right) and a few lines are enough to cover this small and near-term trade,
so far a wash. The chart tells us that jungle drums on a possible third party move are between
muted and non-existent, also notable is how ROXG drops more sharply than peers on down
days (eg Thursday) and bounces less, indicative of retail looking for reasons to sell sooner,
rather than later.
22

The bonus prize if it comes is likely to be Chinese cash, so we’re unlikely to pick up rumours
from the usual channels or suspects, anyway. The deal is getting plenty of pushback from both
sets of shareholders, however, which lessens the prospects of FVI sweetening the deal but
raises the chances of third party aggression. I’m happy to hold onto these ROXG shares as
stands, still plenty of time before resolution and, if gold and silver run further, the cash will be a
winner whatever.
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse) 1q21 financials
Just befote the close on Friday (with the NR
post-close, the way opaque companies hat like to
hide things work), Minera IRL (MIRL.cse) filed its
1q21 financials and MD&A. We update our
charts, check the numbers and point to anything
of note in the next few paragraphs in visuals:
We begin with operations, which saw Corihuarmi
turning another useful profit on the back of its
steady-as-you-go gold production and the higher
gold price deck. Pre-announced sales meant our
house estimate $10.5m was out by just $128k.
Cost creep is now evident here as well, miners
large and small feeling the pinch. COGS rose, G&A
was at its normal level and would be less if it
weren’t for that exorbitant CEO salary.
But the rise in on-site costs is of concern, the
$7.59m of 1q21 a new high that was not caused
by out-sized production. As a result, mine
operating earnings were $1.737m, slightly lower
than expectations but nothing drastic.
Minera IRL: Operating Income
23
13.1
05.0
72.1
59.0 88.0
66.3
47.1
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1
IRL: Revenues per qtr
U$m
source: company filings
239.6 612.7 331.7 856.7 924.6 833.7 133.9 656.8 782.8 562.8
566.01
568.11
873.01
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1
$m
source: company filings
IRL: COGS and admin costs per qtr
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1
$m
Admin Exp
COGS
source: company filings

At the balance sheet, we have our second quarter of more realistic assets and liabilities. the
asset carry of Ollachea still dwarves all other line items, while cash at $2.878m is enough to
keep operations liquid without it being comfortable.
IRL: Assets 220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Working cap is down to negative $8.6m and a similar read to that of 4q20, but only because
the $70m bridge loan is in the long-term column
Once again, it’s current liabilities and the bridge loan debt that looms largest over MIRL and as
my views on that and the CEO have been made crystal clear in the last few weeks, no need to
repeat on the pain.
Bottom line: The evident cost creep is the main takeaway from the MIRL 1q21, apart from that
nothing much has changed and its modest profit won’t move the dial when set against the
corporate re-working required at the company. On that subject, the embedded liability of the
company continues to cut his monthly salary cheques and that is the real stumbling block for
MIRL, as no financier is going to step forward and commit cash to a company under his
stewardship. Until there’s a change at the top, MIRL will continue to descend toward its due
date with Cofide and the loss of its asset.
Revisiting the Copper Mountain price chart
Though it’s always pleasant to revisit a winning trade, the reason for this short note today isn’t
to preen or toot the trumpet.
24
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1
$m 140 IRL: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
cash other current fixed 130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
source: IRL filings
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT debt
current debt
IRL: Cash treasury per qtr
85.1
451.4 502.4
672.3 43.2 988.2 907.2 992.2 528.1 746.1 234.2 197.2 498.2 804.2 384.2 239.2 878.2
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2 1.5 1
0.5
0
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
IRL: Working Capital per qtr
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60 -80
-100
-120
51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

The decision to sell came in IKN622 dated April 25th. The decision was based on the view that
the best of the move was over, my subsequent sale was into strong buying that week at an
average of $4.18. From there we can see how I missed the best prices and somebody even
paid five, but the last week was downhill for CMMC. his weekend’s $4.44 close is close enough
to my out to say that, overall, the sell call on CMMC was right and for the right reasons.
Let’s back that up with this comparative chart, in
which we expand to six months to take in (just
about) the full extent of our CMC trade, then add in
COPX benchmark and the other major mid-cap
winner of the season, Capstone Mining (CS.to)
(right). The way in which CS.to has pulled back
from highs in the same way at the same time also
suggests we’ve reached a plateau of equity prices
for the midcap producers. Of course they can and
will all go higher if copper moves above U$5.00/lb,
but if not the alpha has likely disappeared from this
sub-sector. All that is a long-winded way of
confirming that, as a small retail investor looking for
market edge, the right place now is among the small copper explorecos.
Conclusion
IKN625 is done, we end with two brief bullet points:
 Our move to the exploreco end of the copper market continues, as we purchase
Aldebaran (ALDE.v) to take advantage of the congruence of positives around the stock.
 Peru’s polls are not going to get my vote, sadly Castillo is still hot favourite.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best, Mark
25

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/filo-mining-reports-858m-at-1-80-cueq-discovers-new-high-grade-feeder-
zone-at-filo-del-sol-882143075.html
(2) https://revistavial.com/en-san-juan-la-mineria-es-una-politica-de-estado-26310/
(3) https://www.diariodecuyo.com.ar/economia/En-la-primera-quincena-de-junio-quieren-llamar-a-licitacion-de-7-areas-
mineras-20210515-0078.html
(4) https://aldebaranresources.com/investors/corporate-presentation/
(5) https://aldebaranresources.com/site/assets/files/5714/aldebaran_resources_-_investor_deck_april_2021.pdf
(6) https://www.excelsiormining.com/news/news-2021/xcelsioriningrovidesommentaryonradingctivityan20210514
(7) https://twitter.com/mjmorabito/status/1392854321469952008
(8) https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/great-bear-to-host-a-webinar-on-monday-june-7-at-1100am-pdt-200pm-
edt-to-provide-a-company-update-on-the-dixie-project-drill-program-301287351.html
(9) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ecuador-indigenous-party-wins-national-assembly-presidency-backed-by-
lasso-2021-05-16/
(10) https://pulsoslp.com.mx/mundo/el-candidato-indigena-que-movio-la-mesa-electoral-en-ecuador/1304544
(11) https://larepublica.pe/elecciones/2021/05/16/encuesta-iep-pedro-castillo-sigue-liderando-y-crecimiento-de-keiko-
fujimori-se-estanca-pltc/
(12) https://colombia.as.com/colombia/2021/05/16/actualidad/1621170794_719732.html
(13) https://www.duna.cl/podcasts/diego-hernandez-y-el-royalty-minero-este-es-un-proyecto-que-no-ha-sido-bien-
pensado-no-han-hecho-bien-los-calculos/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
26

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
27

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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