IKN #624Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 624, May 9th 2021
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, Too cute by half, Too cute by half part deux.
Fundamental Analysis: A strategy call on silver, The copper strategy, redux, A heads up on
McEwen Mining (MUX).
Stocks to Follow: Excelsior Mining (MIN.to), QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), Strategic Metals
(SMD.v), MENE Inc (MENE.v), Trilogy Metals (TMQ), Aurelius Minerals (AUL.v), Cartier
Resources (ECR.v), Orezone (ORE.v), Minera IRL (MIRL.cse).
Copper Basket: Overview, The Peru copper stocks (REG.v, PERU.v, CCCM.v, ECU.v), US
Copper & Gold (USCU.v).
Producer Basket: Overview.
Tiny Dogs: Overview, Aston Bay Holdings (BAY.v), Antler Gold (ANTL.v).
Regional Politics: Argentina update, Dominican Republic update, Chile’s royalty false polemic,
Peru election update, Colombia update.
Market Watching: The Roxgold (ROXG.to) side bet opened, New Gold 1q21 financials,
Excelsior Mining (MIN.to) 1q21 financials.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
“
In today’s edition
 Today’s main fundies section begins with “A strategy call on silver”, which is bullish,
too. However, it’s brief for a reason because the main thrust of both last week and this
week’s edition is to underscore the opportunity that copper presents in 2021.
 Copper blasted higher last week, gold and silver too, the world taking its cue from a
suddenly weakened USD. That goes against the house change in emphasis toward base
metals and copper stocks, it’s also why we don’t make rushed decisions on stocks such
as New Gold (NGD), which put in a good quarter. See ‘Market Watching’ for that, as
well as the post-mortem in the intro section.
 After spending too much time on Peru alone in the last few weeks, Regional Politics
gets back to regional coverage and gets up to speed on Argentina, Dom Rep and the
latest hot button issue out of the region, the Chilean royalty law project.
 Plenty of further copper coverage in its own dedicated section, as well. Yes, I’m trying
to tell you to be long copper in 2021.
 Finally, the small note in the fundies section on MUX is deadly serious. No decision
today but you’ll hear about the MUX Conference Call in IKN625, next weekend.
Too cute by half
Last’s week’s main note, “We are now in a secular bull market for copper” made the house
position crystal clear, by title alone. We are bullish copper, that’s not likely to change anytime
1

soon and for that reason, we take extra time out this week in the main Fundies section to cover
queries and update on personal trade positions.
But don’t expect me to get cute on you today. Last week’s note calling copper into a long-term
bull market (rather than expecting a cyclical high this year) also came with trade strategy
thoughts, one of those being that copper the metal may be due a rest in its upward climb. A
quote from last weekend, with copper having traded the U$4.50 range all week, which summed
up the call:
If my guess is right and copper needs time to breach U$4.50/lb, the opportunity to
buy back into the small-medium sized copper operator sector should reappear, with
CMMC.to likely high on my personal shopping list (you may prefer CS.to, ARG.to,
ATY.v to name but three peers). In other words, yes, I’m setting myself up for
embarrassment and failure by getting too cute with the market because, if copper
blows through U$4.50/lb at its next attempt and never looks back, CMMC will be a lot
higher before I can buy it back.
However, I maintain the most powerful part of the gain in CMMC is now behind us and
even if a continued vertical-style bull market, buying the smallcap and tinycap end of
the market is a sound strategy for smaller-sized money.
Great in theory, but “the reality is other”:
The U$4.50 line was blown apart by money (see today’s Copper Basket for a closer look, it
really was a classic breakout and secondary fundies say it has all the legs you’d want). It’s fair
to say the sale of Copper Mountain (CMMC.to) as a result of the strategy decision was a
mistake, on the other hand I wouldn’t have added to other positions without funds (for more on
that see today’s Fundies section), but my circumstances are not yours and there are seventy
reasons why “sell CMMC” was a bad call: I sold at $4.18, it’s a $4.88 stock this weekend.
Too cute by half part deux
And then there was this, on the gold market. Our set-up is to assume a few things over the
longer-term (e.g. the rest of 2021) here’s the pay dirt on that:
If the US Fed can control the US Dollar against other major world
currencies*, gold will not move significantly higher in this upcoming phase of
the market.
Further to this, one mailer critiqued with simple shot on Monday morning, “Take the over on
sentiment!” Point being, it doesn’t matter in the near-term whether the Fed’s plans to control
inflation or not work. My error was to discount sentiment, last week saw the Inflation Narrative
blossom and grow and indeed, my mailer was right. We might not have “inflation all around”,
as one of the many articles I read last week was entitled, but we sure have inflation talk filling I
any gaps it leaves. Another episode to remind me of a personal weakness in my investment
2

armoury: Hype is not necessarily a negative factor and should even be welcomed in the early
stages of a story.
With an extra week of knowledge about gold now on board, some more thoughts. To begin,
our GLD tracking charts are becoming more bullish by the week. Here is the chart of GLD
inventories 2021 YTD and while it’s not an easy spot, to the right shows the first significant net
inflow for the ETF for weeks, stocks up 8.11 tonnes on the week, nearly six of those on Friday:
GLD gold holdings, 2021 YTD (metric tonnes)
1200
1180
1160
1140
1120
1100
1080
1060
1040
1020
1000
3
02/21/13 12/1/5 12/1/01 12/1/51 12/1/02 12/1/52 12/1/03 12/2/4 12/2/9 12/2/41 12/2/91 12/2/42 12/3/1 12/3/6 12/3/11 12/3/61 12/3/12 12/3/62 12/3/13 12/4/5 12/4/01 12/4/51 12/4/02 12/4/52 12/4/03 12/5/5
mt
source: SPDR GLD data
Here’s the thing; We see Wall Street still lagging in gold ownership. Our Inventory/Price ratio
dipped under 6.0X last week, that happens when sentiment for gold on Wall St is in the
dumpster. Yes, gold got bought up last week and sharply on Friday, but GLD wasn’t leading the
trading. Assuming further price appreciation for gold, those instos who use GLD for their
primary PM exposure will surely buy back in. Above the chart is 2021 YTD only, but this chart
covers five years to remind you that gold springs after a 6.0X landing. Start of 2016, mid-2019,
then last year’s Covid-19 kick and now we have a fourth in place.
8.50 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2016 to date
8.25
8.00
7.75
7.50
7.25
7.00
6.75
6.50
6.25
6.00
5.75
5.50
61/4/1 61/61/3 61/62/5 61/8/8 61/81/01 61/92/21 71/41/3 71/42/5 71/4/8 71/61/01 71/72/21 81/21/3 81/22/5 81/2/8 81/21/01 81/42/21 91/8/3 91/02/5 91/13/7 91/01/01 91/02/21 02/5/3 02/51/5 02/82/7 02/7/01 02/71/21 12/3/3
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
So, with new interest and buyers, it took one short week to throw shade on my “gold
underperform” call. It looks dumb all right,
but the real reason is this (right). The USD
was already weakening from Wednesday,
with new claims numbers suggesting a poor
Jobs number for Friday and indeed it was so.
Therein lies the weakness in any plan
involving gold; you are always at the behest
of the US Dollar. Therefore, near-term gold
has broken through the U$1,800/oz line and
seems set to run. That’s why I don’t make
snap portfolio decisions on stocks such as
New Gold (NGD, see ‘Market Watching’
below), though it still remains to be seen
other the Fed has truly lost control of
inflation, the dollar and the economy in
general. The most likely scenario still seems to be real inflation that the beancounters manage
to massage away.

With my two errors now in plain sight and the cause identified (USD weakness), a suitably
chastened author revisit last week’s piece to make sure the wheat isn’t lost for the chaff,
because copper and the companies dependent on it are set to be important parts of any
successful mining portfolio this year.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
A strategy call on silver
Thank you for the feedback from last week’s strategy note on copper. With gold mentioned in
the note, several (EDIT: well, three) readers asked for a better opinion on silver. Fair point and
after my well-documented leeriness toward the metal (that, I might add, has largely played out
as expected) a clear statement is required, so on the back of last week’s note, Yes, I am also
bullish on silver’s prospects from here. Logic demands it so, as market sentiment swings toward
the combination of factors which provide silver its leverage edge:
 Greater demand from end users: We’re not seeing it yet (silver futures remained in
normal contango), but economic recovery means higher use of raw materials, and with
China and The USA leading the upswing any arguments this desk had against higher
silver demand from “the green revolution” are weaker by the month.
 Greater demand from speculators: For sure, there’s an upswing in retail interest in
silver as an investment and speculation vehicle and with industry ready to compete
more for physical, we seem to be entering one of those periods when silver out-
performs gold thanks to its double leverage.
There you have it, officially bullish on silver, but don’t expect IKN to sign up for #silverqueeze2
or the next campaign to “break silver”. Copper juniors are still the better bet at this time for
speculative upside, while exposure to gold stocks will continue for their established role in the
portfolio (e.g. immediately swapping out for silver stocks would change the risk balance), but it
means I’m no longer overlooking the junior silver stocks “just because”. There aren’t many
value propositions out there, but given the right opportunity expect The IKN Weekly to go back
long in silver stocks this year (with a preference for early stage juniors or developer stories).
The copper strategy, redux
Today’s intro has set the scene somewhat for this, an update of last week’s main note, “We are
now in a secular bull market for copper”. The strategy is laid out, today we clarify and update
on the practical side only, i.e. the trade decisions arising. Quoting IKN623) the plan is to “…look
for opportunities in early-stage copper explorecos in safe jurisdictions.” We then went further,
breaking down the statement into four categories:
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 Early-stage: Cheap entry points in companies with undervalued land assets.
 Copper: Preferable, thanks to its unique position as China’s most required import metal
(after iron ore) and its novel role in the EV and battery revolutions.
 Explorecos: Using less money on riskier trades, retaining treasury cash.
 Safe Jurisdictions: Peru is providing real-time lessons to the market as to why
We can argue that holding treasury cash wasn’t so smart as CMMC shot into the stratosphere,
but the plan isn’t set up to cater for a single week’s worth of market action either and , for the
time being, I’m happy with the overall strategy. And once again, a reminder that there are four
markers the target trade, but there’s no need to have all four for a trade (swap Zn for Cu, swap
exploreco for small producer, etc).
We then got practical last week and another list, this time of trades around the decision to
concentrate more on copper this year. Here’s that quicklist, this time with comments added and
update to reflect this weekend:
 The sale of Copper Mountain (CMMC.to). WRONG. Copper busted out of the U$4.50/lb
like a knife through butter* and CMMC ran over 16% last week. Bad move.
 The purchase and then addition to QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v). Good move.
 The addition to Strategic Metals (SMD.v). Last week it didn’t move, but in a sustained
metals bull run land assets give the best leverage of all as long as the corporate
structure lends itself to rewarding equities. SMD passes both with flying colours.
 The addition to Excelsior Mining (MIN.to). Up on the week, but that means nothing until
MIN shows the production improvement it has guided as we move through 2021.
 More cash in treasury now. WRONG. Directly connected to the sale of Copper Mountain
(CMMC.to, see above) of course. In mitigation, the proposal to move cash to the riskier
end of the copper curve is the right one (I believe) for we retail grunts at the moment,
so the additions to QCCU, MIN and SMD from the proceeds of CMMC wouldn’t have
happened otherwise (also FWIW, the small ROXG.to ‘side bet’ trade would have been
less likely for the same practical reason). That’s fine as strategy, but there’s no avoiding
the fact that waiting at least one more week would have worked a lot better.
 Finally, if the “plan works too well and gold flat-lines 2021”, last week I wrote that I’d
entertain a potential sale of New Gold (NGD) before it reaches target. However, also
from last week “…happy to leave room to be wrong” and that’s now more likely. See
below in Market Watching, but NGD is once again in that sweet spot and set-up to rally
fast and farthest. I’ll have to look somewhere else to lighten gold exposure, if required.
Next week, real analysis returns to this section.
*Turkish. Hence the expression ‘As greedy as a pig’.
A heads up on McEwen Mining (MUX)
Tomorrow Monday morning, one of the industry’s biggest name laggard companies holds its
1q21 Conference Call (1). What’s interesting about it is that we already have the 1q21 financials
at hand, as McEwen Mining (MUX) quietly filed them to SEDAR on Friday evening.
Your author’s opinion on MUX has been clear for a long time; a failing company with serious
financial difficulties, due mostly to over-optimistic production forecasts from its mines, but also
to costly purchases (e.g. Blck Fox) and significant cost/time overruns on capex projects (e.g.
Gold Bar). MUX has been a piñata stock on the bog for many years and quite right too, its
5

performance has never matched the hype around it and its “chief owner”, Rob McEwen.
However, that might be have changed and I have to admit, the thought of doing what few
people have done and make a handsome profit from a MUX trade is tempting.
Personal reveries aside, there’s reason to like MUX in these numbers. There’s not much t be
impressed about with the operating quarter…
…with MUX returning a gross loss of almost U$5m and an operating loss of over $15m.
However, MUX was notably aggressive with exploration spending in the quarter, product of the
flow-through placements in the quarter. That is going to continue at a clip and it’s one of the
subjects to look out for in tomorrow’s ConfCall, but seeing G&A still over 42m isn’t so good.
Indeed the MUX quarter was poor, but the reason it caught my eye on Friday is this:
That’s a lot better. MUX has raised cash and managed to keep it and, along with minor help
from receivables and inventories, its current assets improved by over U$27m to bring some
long-awaited stability to the balance sheet. It now needs to return operations to profitability (of
6

course), but the decision to raise this way is a departure from previous MUX corporate stance
and is surely the work of new CFO Anna Ladd-Kruger, as she re-structures the MUX sheets.
The cost has been in share dilution, up over 59m from a year ago at 459.188m shares out
(March 31st). But it’s also been the right decision to move burden to equity, as even without a
profitable quarter the 24 month chart shows MUX recovering once again from recent sub-
Greenback trading. And we note MUX is underwater over the two year period of this chart,
neither gold’s 2020 run nor the Covid-19 crash-and-rally enough to get it back, all while the
main GDX benchmark rallied a cool 81%.
Bottom line: The first thing you require from a turnaround mining stock is a bad mining
company. The second thing you want is a change of course, signals that the company is
tackling its issues and willing to come clean about its reality. We saw it in New Gold (NGD) in
2019 and 2020 under Renaud Adams, there are signs of it happening here at MUX in 2021.
Thanks to equity sales, MUX has ploughed through a (pre-announced) poor operational quarter
and despite taking a $15m loss, its balance sheet is in better shape now than at the end of
2020. However, we’re not jumping the gun, not least because this company is going to be
under the command of Rob McEwen whatever happens and his track record at MUX is poor. It
will take him stepping back and staying back for a real management turnaround to take hold,
so there is more risk here than there was at NGD under CEO Adams. I’m going into tomorrows
ConfCall with as clear a mind as possible, but will be looking for any clue to the current state of
operations at all assets, plus any plans to reawaken the market to Los Azules. If warranted, we
will go into further depth on MUX next weekend.
Stocks to Follow
The see-saw market for PMs continues, with the negative week for mining stocks reported in
IKN623 now a strongly bullish rallying market, just one week later. We get the bad news out
the way and there were two losers (ECR.v, AUL.v) and three UNCH stocks (SMD.v, RYR.v,
MIRL.cse) from our list of 15, which means ten winners so we give you the cream only;
Orezone (ORE.v up 14.7%), QC Copper (QCCU.v up 11.9%) and New Gold (NGD up 11.4%)
heading up a big field, most of them showing strong Friday rally moves.
We currently have 15 open positions in this section, our self-imposed limit. Eight trades are in
the green, seven are in the red, most of the larger sized investments are doing well, most of
the risky stuff isn’t.
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company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.70 233.3% New $1.14 tgt Aug'20 #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.80 -3.6% $1.58 tgt, bot again Nov'20
Recommended stocks (In order of preference)
Trilogy Metals TMQ STR BUY U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$2.38 29.3% Added Dec'20, Cu for 2021
Strategic Metals SMD.v STR BUY C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.46 15.0% Asset $ trade, proj generator
New Gold NGD STR BUY U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$1.75 130.3% tgt $2.80 end '21
Excelsior Mining MIN.to STR BUY C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.85 -8.6% Delayed, but still great value
QC Copper &Gold QCCU.v BUY C$0.205 25-Apr-21 C$0.235 14.6% New Cu exploreco
Royal Road Min. RYR.v BUY C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.35 125.8% Model paying off in Nica
Wolfden Res. WLF.v BUY C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.305 1.7% near-term Zn trade
Great Bear Res GBR.v BUY C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$14.97 -7.5% Binary M&A trade, wait for print
Cartier Resources ECR.v hold C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.285 -10.9% Binary M&A trade, wait for print
Orezone ORE.v BUY C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.14 44.3% Binary M&A trade, wait for print
Aurelius Res AUL.v ADDING C$0.75 28-Jun-20 C$0.60 -20.0% Adding a few, 3rd time, risky
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.09 -53.8% CEO change will move stock
Long-term non-mining hold
Mene Inc. MENE.v LT Hold C$0.62 6-Dec-20 C$0.56 -9.7% LT bet on jockey&horse,will add
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Mining NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
2015 to 2020 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered stocks:
Excelsior Mining (MIN.to): ADDED. Up on the week, but the ten day chart is the better
gauge of current sentiment:
Still quiet, despite this record run in copper. See today’s ‘Market Watching’ section for more on
MIN and a look at its financials.
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): ADDED. As per last week’s intention, QCCU is now up to a
what I’d call a decent speculative level in my overall portfolio. This trade is now set, and we
should expect ongoing drill results from now to August, with the next NR likely this very week.
8

Strategic Metals (SMD.v): ADDED. Also as per IKN623, SMD was easy to buy at 46c and I
didn’t need to average up by too much. Now set fair as a position and no plans to add further.
MENE Inc (MENE.v): ADDED. In a busy week of trading (four moves might not be much for
you), I also added a few here, the cost average dropping slightly. I’m not being particularly
scientific about these small additions, with the last two almost an afterthought while making
other rounds of planned trades. It’s not a mining company and, until it really takes off,
coverage of MENE.v will be soft. Once it does, however, you may end up remembering The IKN
Weekly less for is mining picks, more for the money it made you in the online retail sector.
FWIW, I received feedback from CEO Sebag on last week’s note. Among his thoughts (all
proper and nothing insider) I’m comfortable about sharing this part with a wider audience, it’s
on-topic about financials and indicates better times to come:
“…at this point the Dec 2020 results are antiquated and the Q1 2021 results should be more
instructive. The restructuring of the debt really transforms the balance sheet and economic
calculations going forward. Q1 was stronger than we expected (as I mentioned in the NR) and
pre-sales are starting to creep up to 10-15% of total sales. 2021 should be a good year for Mene
with $30 million+ in total sales.”
For context, here are quarterly sales to date:
MENE:v: Revenues and gross profit, per qtr
7.11
5.42 5.16
4.65
3.51 3.22 3.44
2.73 2.46 1.99
1.39 1.04
9
71.0 32.0 12.0
89.0 86.0 06.0 00.1
04.1
10.1 29.0
85.1 96.1
C$m
8.0
revenues
7.0
gross profit
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1q18 2q18 3q18 4q18 1q19 2q19 3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20
source: company filings
Once MENE is free cash flow positive, its equity will fly. Be on before then.
Trilogy Metals (TMQ): Underperforming. TMQ is multi-metal but its economics and therefore
share price are driven firmly by copper.
It’s going to improve in the current market
circumstances, but at the same time TMQ
is ultimately a binary play. We are long
because South 32 is long, S32 will
eventually buy out the TMQ 50% and we
await the deal, it’s that simple but it also
means any near-term speculation is up
against the timing of a board decision
somewhere in Australia.
If you, like me, are holding TMQ and not
happy with its performance through this
phase of the copper bull run, the solution
is to trade other, more responsive vehicles
to near-term price movements (e.g. the
producers/the small producers, hence COPX and CMMC in the chart, right) and recall the trade
set-up here is less about copper, more about M&A. The pay-off will happen, but the buyout
scenario means trade profits do not arrive incrementally, they arrive all at once. Or sell your
TMQ and put that money to work in another place, but I wouldn’t recommend that, this is a
high quality junior story.

Aurelius Minerals (AUL.v): The stock is rolled back, the first placement tranche is closed as
per the Friday NR (2), next week sees the final tranche close as well. All good, AUL can now get
on with drilling and reporting assay results. Therefore an assuming next week closes as
expected, here’s the new share count:
 Shares out: 37,367,039
 Warrants: 8,232,693
 Options: 1,414,420
 Broker’s Warrants: 928,196
 FD total: 47,952,348
With this weekend’s 60c share price, AUL is a C$22.42m market capper with C$6m in working
cap to do everything it wants to do at a prospective looking UG target, one that has started to
return strong gold assays (plus other nice surprises, that recent floor discovery of grade, for
example), with a real bonus at its nearby open pit target. In a rising gold environment, you get
a lot of stock and potential leverage for a small price at AUL, your 6c entry would make me feel
jealous.
Cartier Resources (ECR.v): Friday saw ECR file its Chimo 43-101 to SEDAR, I’m going to
keep the critique short and sweet today because the reason to be long this stock isn’t its
marketing buffoonery round Chimo. The hack on the 43-101 technical report is via its resource
count chart, here:
That’s how ECR got to over 2m oz gold in all categories and sure enough, it doesn’t take long to
find evidence of the resource count stretch, starting at the weakest-looking link. While the cut-
off is 2.0 g/t at its other resource zones (North, South), ECR and its 43-101 compilers have
used a 1.5 g/t Au cut-off for its main Central zone and its approx 70% of overall resource. At
first sight, low for an UG operation so here’s the math: First we get into one currency (CAD)
and the ECR U$1,612/oz price assumption becomes CAD$2,160/oz at the ECR assumed
exchange rate (1:1.34). With a 100% mining assumption and 90% recovery assumption for the
gold at mill, the math goes like this:
1.5 x ((C$2,160 / 31.1) x 0.9) = CAD$93.76
In other words, get all the costs in for under C$94 and the project economics work. So let’s see,
here is the list of costs as per the ECR 43-101, all numbers for Central zone:
 Mining cost $50.75/t
 Definition drilling $3/t
 Transport cost of $9.80/t;
 Environment cost of $0.75/t
 Processing cost of $17/t
 G&A of $12/t.
Grand total: CAD$93.30, apparently we’re good. However, it really doesn’t take much to start
poking holes into this PEA assumption, aside the costs numbers that are up for debate around
Val D’Or during a mining boom. A simple adjustment for forex reality shows the lack of margin,
10

as ECR can assume any number it wants but the current CAD/USD forex ratio is much shorter,
at around 1:1.21. according to the math, that makes the ECR gold price assumption
CAD$1,950/oz, some C$210/oz lower than the figures used in this technical report. As just that
move to reality brings the cut-off economics lower, each tonne of rock at the cut now worth
CAD$84.64, it calls into question the low 1.5 g/t cut and overall, the 2m oz claimed by ECR.
Now, for sure you can defend ECR at Chimo by pointing to another part of reality, gold is
currently CAD$2,220/oz at market. But that will prop costs as well as revenues, adding cost
creep on the economic model for the same reason. Once again, the image remains of a
company that stretched for 2m as a headline number. The one thing this desk certainly can
agree with from the ECR 43-101 is the final note under its resource table, which states the
following:
“The cut-off grades should be re-evaluated in light of future prevailing market
conditions (metal prices, exchange rate, mining cost, etc.)”
Yes, indeed.
Orezone (ORE.v): Aside from Roxgold itself (see Market Watching, below), the other obvious
place to expect a bounce on the news of its
buyout was here, Orezone (ORE.v) moving up
the shopping list of the world’s midcap
producers. In fact ORE took until Thursday and
Friday to move, but on doing so jumped
straight back into the buyout price zone:
We’ve been here before, with the house
scenario of an approx C$1.50 buyout price for
ORE.v and speculative runs that end 20% or so
before that, taking into account the buyout
premium any buyer of the company (not just a
few of its shares) would need to pay. ORE
continues to be a binary trade for the Weekly
and a very easy hold, though for sure I’d like the M&A action sooner rather than later.
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): At least it continues to prove it can run an operating mine well. The
April production numbers were filed to CSE on Wednesday, here’s the updated tracking chart:
11

MIRL: 2019/20 Corihuarmi gold prod & shipments, per month
12
9681 7051 3751 7902 7322 0731 6291 6662 3281 7412 0091 9581 4181 5261 6571 1602 4931 5641 5122 3102 9141 3122 0342 9871 3312
899
4472
5322
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500 1000
500
0
91naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 02naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 12naj bef ram rpa
Oz Au
contained oz
shipments
source: CSE
That’s 2,235 oz shipped last month, making 8,110 oz in the first four months of 2021 and
ahead of guidance. Of all the problems MIRL has, at least near-term liquidity isn’t one of them.
The Copper Basket
After eighteen weeks of 2021, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 39.65% to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.08 104.67 1195.33 11.42 87.8%
2 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 1.81 207.5 989.78 4.77 163.5%
3 Oroco Res OCO.v 1.85 185.11 536.82 2.90 56.8%
4 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.25 64.358 321.79 5.00 53.8%
5 Western Copper WRN.to 1.57 135.6 279.34 2.06 31.2%
6 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.80 180.77 260.31 1.44 80.0%
7 Excelsior Min. MIN.to 1.12 273.585 232.55 0.85 -24.1%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.07 101.85 83.52 0.82 -23.4%
9 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.115 375.17 58.15 0.155 34.8%
10 Chakana Cop PERU.v 0.60 117.2 51.57 0.44 -26.7%
11 Doré Copper DCMC.v 1.00 40.938 48.31 1.18 18.0%
12 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.455 93.64 44.48 0.475 4.4%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.45 66.7 25.35 0.38 -15.6%
14 US Copper USCU.v 0.105 87.53 23.63 0.27 157.1%
15 Chibougamau CBG.v 0.165 46.695 7.47 0.16 -3.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 39.65%
Another impeccable week for the copper sector and our basket average leapt higher, just
fractions shy of 10% and tracking chart we noted last week (below) broke out on cue. No
naming the eleven winners, instead we applaud those returning double figure percentage wins:
 US Copper & Gold (USCU.v) up 20.0%
 Copper Mountain (CMMC.to) up 16.3%
 Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to) up 15.7%
 Solaris Resources (SLS.to) up 14.8%
 Regulus Resources (REG.v) up 10.8% The Copper Basket 2021, weekly evolution
50%
45%
A cheer for one and all. There were four 40%
losers on the week (MARI.to, PERU.v, ALDE.v, 35%
30%
CBG.v), the biggest loser Chakana (PERU.v
25%
down 10.2%), bouncing around a wide 20%
trading range. 15%
10%
5%
0%
ts1
naJ
ht01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yam ht9
source: IKN calcs

On Saturday morning, I spent a few minutes on some re-reading of The IKN Weekly (a rarity),
specifically recent issues of The Copper Basket section. What caught the eye was the resolute
bull stance as I did plenty of pushing back against plenty of (what was then quite common)
bearish market sentiment on copper during March and April 2021 editions. The culmination was
in the continued extended coverage of copper and in IKN620 dated April 11th this prediction:
With that in mind, here’s the house prediction: We are sitting in the middle of April,
come the end of May, with SHFE dropping like a stone, its inventory levels will finally
make a few column inches as the previously bearish market maevens try to explain the
price run in copper. We are seeing a market-moving dynamic prepare itself in real-
time, the sharp drop in SHFE inventories as from May is inevitable and will grab sector
headlines. When it happens, spare a thought for IKN620 and remember how it began,
under the cover of bearish blather from experts.
Once again, IKN got its timing wrong. Shoot me
now. That weekend, copper was sitting at just
over U$4.00/lb but as it happens, couldn’t wait for
the end of May and has shot forward in no
uncertain style. The market talk is of a new
impulse from Chinese retail money, latching on to
the trend. As usual with metals chatter, there will
be some grain of truth but the most likely sources
of cash are the usual suspects, The red-hot red
metal is suddenly fashionable to a tee with The
Players, as seen in the rapid climb in open
interest. Here we see 172k OI, already 2.5X the
seasonal average for near-dated futures contracts.
Further out, Comex has open interest growing
down the line, for example the 30k already open on its Dec’21 contract. Here’s a closer look at
the last five days of trading:
This Perfect Storm is running again. On the week, we had a plethora of connected and semi-
connected data, all pushing copper higher:
 US Dollar down on its unemployment numbers (see intro)
 Market in backwardation, as reported last week and remaining that way
 On macro supply, Chile announced copper production for March 2021 down 1.2%,
compared to the same month of last year. Considering to which month we are
comparing (and that as from April, all 2021 production data make automatic bullish
headlines), that news went down well for bulls. Main culprit is La Escondida, the world’s
biggest copper mine saw its production drop by 13.8% compared to March 20202.
 As for demand, last week’s clue was Chinese data on finished copper imports (refined,
anode or copper products) and pointed in the same direction as just about everything
else out of the country recently. April imports are up 5.1% YoY, while the first four
13

months of 2021 that include most of the Covid-19 interruptions are up by 9.8% (Data
from Cochilco (3).
Add all those to the already-bullish supply/demand mix in play and the result is in those charts,
above. From the list, a second look at the backwardation curve (as per last week) brings insight
into the staying-power of last week’s move:
COMEX Copper contracts, at Friday close
4.80
4.75
4.70
4.65
4.60
4.55
4.50
4.45
4.40
4.35
14
hsaC yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 22naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 32naj
U$/lb
Apr 30 May.7
source: COMEX
While the cash price dipped in late Friday trading, the real action was already embedded and
copper, as from the May number, remains in the same clear backwardation (pink line) we
reported last weekend (blue line), the only change being the higher price deck.
We move to our regular weekly copper inventories coverage, bullish data again:
 Three weeks makes a trend, overall world copper inventories aggregate dropped
another 9,332 metric tonnes (mt) (-2.3%) to close the week at 394,623mt.
 The SHFE saw an inflow, slightly surprising as in the last few weeks it’s shown every
sign of topping out. We saw 8,603mt (+4.3%) added, bringing the total this Friday to
208,473mt. A few more comments below, along with the dedicated SHFE chart.
 The LME didn’t mess around, its message for the market was loud and clear. The
17,000mt off stocks this weekend all came from either its European or its New Orleans
depots, they all look paper-only in nature. We noted Cancelled Warrants last week at
48.4% and ready to help inventories drop, sure enough they are now down to 41.1%
of open.
 At the COMEX, the small 935mt inventory drop last week won’t change the world, but
does put The Americas in line with Asia and Europe sentiment. Its copper stocks this
weekend total 59,425mt.
Here is the Shanghai-only inventories chart, and that slight surprise we’re up 8k and over the
200k line again. Would this be a
normal year, you’d shrug it off. Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
This is 2021 and with copper prices 400000
racing higher fast, SHFE 350000
inventories become a new 300000
bellwether on any speculative top 250000
forming in the metal. So the theory 200000
goes, at some point buyers will 150000
baulk at the new prices and leave
100000
contracts to deliver to last resort
50000
warehouses, so this week’s combo
0
of rising copper spot and rising
SHFE copper inventories is
nominally bearish. The signal is
ht5naj ht61 ht52 dr3gua ht21 ts12 5102
ts1ram
ht01 ht91 ht72 ht6ced ht41 ht42 6102
dr3luJ
ht11 ht72 ht5beF ht61 ht52 7102
dr3pes
ht21 ts12 8102
ts1rpa
ht71 ht62 8102
ht4von
9102
ht31naj
ht42 9102
dn2nuj
ht11 ht02 ht92 ht8 ht71 0202ht62luj ht4tco 0202ht31ced ts12 1202dn2yam
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco

one of many and you don’t jump in and suddenly go bearish copper on weak evidence, it does
however remind us that copper won’t go up indefinitely.
The Peru copper stocks (REG.v, PERU.v, CCCM.v, ECU.v): Last week we noted that the
Peru group had stopped falling. This weekend…
…it’s somewhat disparate, but both REG,v and CCCM.v kept pace with the rally in copper stocks
(COPX proxy). That PERU.v fell further doesn’t raise an eyebrow, but Element 29 (ECU.v) is the
one stock I’d buy today if I were more optimistic about Peru’s political outcome next month.
Very cheap compared to peers and with two real exploreco properties of worth, unlike C3 and
its Hochschild cast-offs.
US Copper & Gold (USCU.v): A little Shakespeare:
“Tis but thy name that is my enemy;
Thou art thyself, though not a Montague.
What’s Montague? …O, be some other name!
What’s in a name? that which we call a rose
By any other name would smell as sweet;
So Romeo would, were he not Romeo call’d,
Retain that dear perfection which he owes
Without that title.”
Juliet was in love, we’re in junior mining stocks and on this two month chart, note the dates
which Crown Mining became US Copper & Gold, then the date it applied for OTC listing.
This stock has the look of a pump in waiting.
The Producer Basket
After eighteen weeks of 2021, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 0.34% to level stakes.
15

company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out Mkt Cap (U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 59.89 803.36 54.09 67.33 12.4%
2 Barrick GOLD 22.78 1779.04 42.55 23.92 5.0%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 70.51 242.99 16.81 69.17 -1.9%
4 Kirkland Lake KL 41.27 272.984 11.15 40.85 -1.0%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 7.34 1260 9.75 7.74 5.4%
6 Pan American PAAS 34.71 210.17 7.35 34.99 0.8%
7 Endeavour Min EDV.to 29.62 246.2 5.47 26.68 -9.9%
8 B2Gold BTG 5.60 1064 5.52 5.19 -7.3%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 8.75 392.73 3.44 8.76 0.1%
10 Pretium Res PVG 11.48 187.254 2.14 11.45 -0.3%
Prices in U$ except EDV.to (share price in CAD$ and mkt cap in approx USD) Port. avg 0.34%
Back in the green. Last week’s move in gold was leveraged through the big mining
companies, the result basket average that rallies
over 8% and all ten components firmly in the
14% 2021 Producer Basket components, week on week
green. Instead of a list of words this week, a
12%
visual on that (right). Barrick (GOLD) out-
10%
performed as the market liked its 1q21 earnings
and guidance. Then came the pack, all those rising 8%
by 10% under the direct influence of the Top 6%
Down money coming in via GDX (and its friends).
4%
The only outlier was NEM, though the world’s
2%
biggest gold player has had a better 2021 than its
0%
rivals and is allowed a week off while they catch
up a little. All that means there are four
companies back positive for 2021 YTD and the
average has also crawled above zero as it marked
pace with the GDX benchmark. In this section, green ink > red ink.
There’s a lot going on in other sections at the moment, so notes on basket companies have
been thin on the ground recently. This is in essence a tracking device, which allows
comparative o our real focus of junior miners, but at some point we’ll have more to comment
on these larger caps.
The Tiny Dogs
After eighteen weeks of 2021, the Tiny Dogs show a gain of 14.98% to level stakes.
16
DLOG LK MEA SAAP CGK IGA GVP MEN GTB ot.VDE
source: IKN data
The 2021 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and 10%
comparative to GDX control
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
ts1
naJ
ht71 ts13 ht41 ht82 ht41 ht82 ht11 ht52 ht9
The 2021 Producer Basket: Percentage difference between
GDX benchmark and basket (negative = IKN basket ahead)
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
basket 1.0%
gdx control 0.5%
0.0%
source: Google, IKN Calcs
ts1
naJ
ht71 ts13 ht41 ht82 ht41 ht82 ht11 ht52 ht9
source: IKN calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq/TSX data

company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Antler Gold ANTL.v 0.205 61.348 9.51 0.155 -24.4%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.045 163.975 7.38 0.045 0.0%
Constantine Met CEM.v 0.17 45.4 13.62 0.30 76.5%
Contact Gold C.v 0.115 240.757 24.08 0.10 -13.0%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.22 40 5.60 0.14 -36.4%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.045 230.79 23.08 0.10 122.2%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.240 106.241 18.06 0.17 -29.2%
QC Copper QCCU.v 0.315 105 24.68 0.235 -25.4%
Red Pine Expl RPX.v 0.400 95.806 70.90 0.74 85.0%
Warrior Gold WAR.v 0.090 91.818 7.80 0.085 -5.6%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 14.98%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
A bright week for the list, with 5% added to the average. The losers were ANTL.v (see below)
and GDP.v, the UNCH stock was MTU.v, the
other seven winners with the biggest
Tiny Dogs, 2021 weekly tracker
20%
percentage moves from Warrior Gold (WAR.v
18%
up 21.4%), Aston Bay (BAY.v up 12.5%) and 16%
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v up 11.9%). 14%
12%
Overall and with volume question marks, the 10%
Tiny Dogs managed to join the party last week 8%
6%
and that’s a good sign for the sector. Follow-
4%
through required. 2%
0%
Aston Bay (BAY.v): The reason BAY.v made
the Tiny Dogs list this year was as much for
the potential of the Storm Copper/Seal zinc
base metals projects in Nunavut Canada, as its hunt for gold in VA USA. On Monday, BAY
announced the closing of an optioning deal with American West, a private company funded by
Australian capitals, which (and we quote) (4), “…now has an option to earn an 80% interest in
Aston Bay’s 100% owned property located on western Somerset Island, Nunavut which hosts
the high-grade Storm Copper Project and the high-grade Seal Zinc by spending a minimum of
$10 million on qualifying exploration expenditures over a period of up to nine years. With Storm
and Seal now farmed out, BAY can benefit from the free carry while advancing its own project.
Not the outcome I’d looked for, but still positive and the stock moved up on the week as a
result
Antler Gold (ANTL.v): On Monday morning ANTL announced (5) assay results from the
Central C1 zone of its Erongo project in Namibia. Despite CEO Whittaker telling us they were
“…very encouraged with these initial drill results”, the fact is that of nine RC holes sank, only
one hit mineralizatio and eight were dusters. The company has higher hopes of the nearby C2
zone, but last week was a swing and a miss and the stock lost ground all week on low volumes.
17
ts1
naJ
ht71 ts13 ht41 ht82 ht41 ht82 ht11 ht52 ht9
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It is possible that in the
future I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, but at the moment both my opinion and my wallet are strictly
neutral.
Regional politics
Argentina update
There are currently three main areas of social conflict in Argentina. They are significant too, but
that alone may point to a better future for other areas of the country.
First up Catamarca and the Agua Rica project (Yamana et al), which once again has the local
town of Andalgalá militant against the project. With Alumbrera now essentially shut after over
two decades of production, the company wants to move forward with its second Agua Rica
project. This has been controversial for as long as it has existed, not just in these modern ESG
times. With a big capex ticket, difficult metallurgy and a location that potentially affects local
water sources, we’ve seen a recent upsurge in protest marches in the region against the mine,
violent clashes included, making it as hot a ticket as possible for the national government to
approve.
In Chubut, the mining industry has one less headache to worry about. Last week, the “Popular
Initiative” (law project from the collection of petition signatures) that would ban all mining in all
the province came to the floor of Chubut’s parliament and was defeated, 13 to 12 (2
abstentions). This is an example of how Governor Arcioni will only present those bills that he
knows he will win, which is why the other law project to try and get the Meseta region
“Zonificated”* and allow the Pan American Silver (PAAS) Navidad project to go ahead hasn’t
seen any light of day during the current legislature.
Finally, anti-mining groups are starting to oppose projects in San Juan, which is arguably the
best place to go exploring and/or mining in the entire country. The main argument is
environmental, with projects in the line of fire including Lama (GOLD/Chinese JV) and
Josemaria (JOSE.v) as they “…violate the environmental rights of the Province, also affecting
the glaciers in the Rioja region of the Cordillera…” (to translate some of the anti-mining stuff I
get to read). It’s San Juan that could provide a positive turning point for Argentina mining. To
date, the national government of Alberto Fernández (and that of Macri before it) has centred its
efforts in trying to get some sort of “National Mining Consensus”, the plan being a list of criteria
for mining that all Provinces could agree upon and adhere to. Increasingly, that’s looking like a
pipedream and the entrenched attitudes of provinces such as Mendoza, Chubut, Rio Negro and
Tierra del Fuego (just to name ones with Andean Cordillera to their western flanks) has stopped
any initiative. But in San Juan, the anti-miners are surely over-playing their hand. Not only is
the industry a big revenue generator for the province, it’s also big for jobs and, with issues such
as the infamous Veladero spills as obvious black marks, its ESG track record is accepted by
locals. Here is where the Fernández government can push back, by moving away from a
national strategy and allowing San Juan to advance unshackled. The rise of Resource
Nationalism over the region means that previously less attractive jurisdictions move up the
rankings (a little). As far as mining goes, San Juan is a great province in a bad country and all
concerned would benefit from a bifurcation, it would certainly look good against what we
expect in the future for Peru.
Dominican Republic update
While The IKN Weekly was focused on Peru (and Ecuador) in April, political risk took a turn for
the worse in Dominican Republic due to protests against Barrick Pueblo Viejo (GOLD 60%/NEM
40%) and its plans to extend tailings facilities around the Pueblo Viejo mine, vital for the
ensuing U$1.3Bn expansion plans for the mine. No matter how well the plan is presented and
even as we filter out the noise from anti-mining activists, these works will indeed impinge on
18

local communities and there’s a real issue to solve.
However, one of the problems is purely political and man-made, as the Abinader government is
faking it with its population and they know it. The official position shows in the utterings of
Minister of Energy and Mines Antonio Almonte. He appeared last week at a specially organized
mining forum giving opinion on the protests against the Barrick plans, as well as the
communities in conflict, the focal community being the town of Yamasá (6) and the dam the
company wants to build across the local River Cuance. His words (translated) (7) (8) include
these examples of tone and message:
“If an environmental and social impact study determines that the proposal of the mining
operation does not comply with the required environmental standards, then the mining
company will not operate.”
Read “It will. They will”. Also:
“In the case of Cuance and Barrick, there’s a problem and the diffculty is that of the
company and the compiling of its Environmental Impact Study (EIA), and I believe we
have to respect the dialogue in the heart of the community, and dialogue means there
are sectors of the community that oppose (the project) and others that don’t. This
means we have to pay attention to both sides, the majority and the minority.”
Locals are under no illusions about the depth of consultation expected, so they proactively
protest. As mining in general and the Pueblo Viejo mine in particular are too valuable for Dom
Rep’s future under Abinader, its government needs to get a better grip on the social situation
and so far, they’re only adding fans to the flames. In these cases, Realpolitik is required, the
required extension to Dom Rep’s biggest tax revenue provider is not the place to start
philosophical Lebensraum debates, this capex project is going to happen, Abinader and his
people would be better suited to talking compensation packages for affected locals than
sophistries about eventual permitting.
Finally, yes, all this time Precipitate Gold (PRG.v) has been on my mind but the way it’s been
trading suggests there’s no need to make any quick decisions.
Chile’s royalty false polemic
Let us set aside the fact the The IKN Weekly has been covering this issue as it came up toward
passage through the lower house of Chile’s parliament, but from those previous notes (see IKN
Weekly Regional Politics issue passim) let’s rescue the main silver lining, that the original 3% to
10% sliding scale of royalties was altered for a flat 3% number. But a commentary is needed
here, I was impressed in the way the business and mining worlds reacted to the news out of
Chile last week was as if the debate had happened out the blue.
By the time the commission proceedings (through April) and the debate (last week) was done,
the Lower House had passed a law project that requires a new 3% royalty with the terms,
specifically on sales, that have the sector up in arms. The law project would apply to any
company selling more than 12,000 tonnes of copper or 50,000 tonnes of lithium, small miners
thereby excluded. The project now passes to the Senate and while the politics then get murky,
there’s a decent chance it passes as stands. There have been rumours of all sorts of pacts
between opposition politicos and the Ministry of Energy and Mining, or moves to take the
project to the Supreme Court as unconstitutional, but even if Chile’s Upper House follows
through on this bout of resource nationalism, it’s all bound to be vetoed at Presidential level by
Piñera. That delays things for so long, perhaps 2021 and perhaps not, but the upcoming
election is almost certainly to vote in a Left wing Presidency as from 2022 and from that
moment, the Presidential Decree signature is a snap.
As for reaction from the mining industry, “up in arms” does the job well. This desk could choose
from dozens of English or Spanish language reports, op-eds and interviews out of the country in
the last four days, all pushing the same line that this royalty will “Kill The Chile Mining
Industry”. From the wide choice, two Spanish language examples (translated), with the first (9)
19

quoting local star economist Ricardo Lagos (intelligent, respected and very saltwater) who this
weekend said, “The royalty approved by the Chamber is not viable for Chilean mining”,
considers Chilean miners pay State burden at standard world levels already and that (quote) “If
a law such as this is eventually passed, it will obviously shut down a significant part of the
mining sector.” That’s an easy call, any theoretical textbook will tell you that and Lagos knows a
safe statement to defend when he sees one. Meanwhile Cristián Sandoval, president of the
“Pampa Norte” arm of BHP in Chile that combines the Spence and Cerro Colorado mines, gives
a typical example of the other main line of criticism being used this weekend in Chilean mining
circles in the title of this note (10), “Our margins simply are not that which the legislators
imagine”. The argument has merit of course, with Sandoval explaining that if this royalty
happens the Cerro Colorado mine “would not be viable” and the recently completed expansion
of Spence wouldn’t have happened if the project had already been law. Here’s a quote:
“BHP complies completely with the law, with transparency and responsibility.
Compared with other mining jurisdictions, Chile is a country with a high tax burden.
Investments compete with each other at a world level, we can’t deny reality. Raising
taxes disproportionately, such as the approval (of the royalty project) in the (Lower)
Chamber, makes us less competitive and that’s a fact.”
Well put, but the penury argument is difficult when copper is doing what it’s doing at the
moment. It’s one thing for a company to plead its economic model, quite another for a
politician to hear that the average AISC for a pound of copper in large mine Chile is U$1.45,
then look at a price chart for the metal. Margins, indeed.
The fact remains, South American economies have been hit hard by Covid-19 and its
consequences, they have literally lost a lot of money, reserves, GDP, GDP-Debt Ratio, measure
it as you will but the region is impoverished. There is no way these countries will watch private
mining companies enjoy a full-scale economic bonanza on their soil without them paying a
share to their respective States in the future. Resource Nationalism is here and not going away,
the fact Chile ranks high on the list of world level mining friendly countries and is also first to
pull the trigger regionally on higher burdens for mining has made extra headlines. But that’s all,
Chile is the first of many and frankly, if it’s kept at just 3% by the time 2022 comes and goes,
Chilean mining companies will think they’ve got a good deal compared to others. Peru, for
example. This is a false polemic, because a) the royalty won’t happen in reality until the next
government 2) it won’t be anywhere near as burdensome under the new copper price deck and
3) once the rest of the world has taken its turn, Chile will be back at the top of the league table
for risk perception in mining.
Peru election update
As far as market reaction goes, it’s all about the polls in Peru and we’ve seen the market
improve…
…thanks to polls in the month of May that have consistently show the race getting tighter.
Here’s a list of the polls for round two so far, including one for IEP today that will provide more
cheer for Keiko:
20

Tabulating the polls in Peru
date Pedro Keiko difference pollster
18 apr 42.0% 31.0% 11.0% Ipsos
22 apr 41.0% 26.0% 15.0% Datum
25 apr 41.3% 24.8% 16.5% Idice
25 apr 41.5% 21.5% 20.0% IEP
25 apr 35.5% 34.0% 1.5% CPI
29 apr 44.0% 34.0% 10.0% Datum
2.may 43.0% 34.0% 9.0% Ipsos
2.may 37.6% 34.5% 3.1% CIT
7.may 41.0% 36.0% 5.0% Datum
9.may 36.2% 30.0% 6.2% IEP
source: encuestas.com.pe
You may recall, it was the IEP survey of April 25th that threw the largest bucket of cold water
over Peru sentiment, so seeing that pollster cut
50%
Pedro Castillo’s lead from 20% to 6.2% will warm Peru: Run-off polling evolution
45%
things up again. According to IEP, Keiko has
40%
improved due to a majority of undecided voters
35%
opting for her, plus around 5% of voters switching
opinions and now saying they’ll vote for Keiko, 30%
rather than Castillo. This chart (right) shows the 25%
above table in squiggly line form, there was April 20%
and then there is May. 15%
10%
In campaign news, the most significant events have
been the previous debate, which boosted Keiko,
plus the decision of the two candidates to meet for
a second debate in the days to come, this time in the Santa Monica prison for women where
Keiko was detained last year (and will likely spend plenty of time in the future if she doesn’t win
this election). However, the Peru Libre camp will want last week to be its low point, now that it
has formalized its pact with the other left wing parties. Lefty Verónika Mendoza signed on last
week and that brings in a large team of “technicals”, the type of left wing academic that
sustains policy with argument. Their strategy will be to assure people that Castillo isn’t the
threat to democracy that their opponents are making him out to be and they have four weeks
to make that message stick.
As for a call on the tightening race, there’s enough in the substance to believe this isn’t just a
media campaign to skew the election away from “the Commies”. However Castillo is still leading
and we know his support is going to be undercounted by any normal data collection method for
polling, so the companies are all using their own algos and proprietary stats methods to make
the adjustments. Which means yes, there’s little doubt the “Keiko Surge” is real, but it’s not as
powerful or enthusiastic as the numbers make out. Keiko has more of a chance this weekend,
we know that because the lead is tightening but its still a substantial lead and reflects Lima’s
decision more than the country. In this desk’s view, a Keiko Round Two win is still unlikely and
we should prepare for the worst in Peru, not hope for the best.
Colombia update
The major news out of Colombia in the last seven days is around the protests against the
Duque government’s tax reform plans, which started rowdily then quickly descended into
outright violence and pitched battles between violent groups and police officers. Injuries and
arrests are now counted in the hundreds and there are conflicting reports on the numbers of
dead, but those of protesters are in the dozens and at least one police officer was killed. The
good news (if there is any) is that these protests are currently confined to Bogotá, with a few of
the other main cities joining in but without the heightened conflict to date. This means our type
21
rpa
81
rpa
22
rpa
52
rpa
52
rpa
52
rpa
92
yam.2 yam.2 yam.7 yam.9
Pedro
Keiko
source: encuestas.com.pe

of investment and exposure to the country is less affected, so the call is to be hard-nosed about
the violent images out of the country, any price weakness due to political turmoil in Colombia
rarely last for long.
Market Watching
The Roxgold (ROXG.to) side bet opened
As per the decision in this section last week, I’m now long ROXG.to with the “side bet” trade
small, near-term and predicated around value from the Fortuna (FVI.to) (FSM) buyout offer. I
said I’d pay up to $2.10 and got in easily at $2.07, which means we’re on the right side of the
trade this weekend. Here’s ROXG mapped against FSM, showing there’s no spec premium
showing yet.
The downside risk is basically the gold price on this near-term bet, while upside risk can benefit
from market applause, a sweetener from FSM or an interloper, willing to pay more for ROXG
and $40m to Fortuna. Not impossible, plus if gold now takes off we’ll earn speculative leverage
and if so, it should show in the continuation of the above chart.
New Gold 1q21 financials
Our largest PM producer holding on the list, New Gold (NGD) filed its 1q21 last week and to put
all links in one place, here’s a chronological order of recent events and milestones added to a
2021 YTD chart:
On the above, I also took the liberty of adding the date of the issue in which we looked at the
NGD 1q21 production numbers, IKN622 dated April 25th, one week late and not my finest hour,
but we make it up to you today with good news because the NGD quarter came in just fine,
with solid guidance too. That’s the preamble done, now for some numbers starting with a recap
of production and sales, via these charts that we last saw in IKN622:
22

NGD: Gold production vs Sales, Oz per qtr
23
41006 60106 12647 58407 19167 41657 25869 65048 91108 00109 86958 45948 99029 99768 94676 95527 51576 92596 72156 26616 61208 49867 69038 69088 70586 12356 00078 00078 00078 00078 00098 00098
130000
120000
Total Au prod
110000
Total Au sales
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000 40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1q18 2q18 3q18 4q18 1q19 2q19 3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21
source: NGD filings, IKN calcs
Gold chart above, copper chart below; We’ve gone over the miss and the New Afton issues,
there is nothing in these soft production and sales numbers that wasn’t known beforehand.
NGD: New Afton copper production and sales, per qtr
2.22 3.12 4.02 6.91 7.12 5.02 8.02 7.91 5.91 2.02 6.12 3.81 1.02 6.02 3.81 3.71 5.81 7.71 9.61 3.51 2.81 5.71 5.81 5.71 8.31 3.31 81 71 81 71 81 71
Mlb Cu
24 Cu prod
22 Cu sales
20
18
16
14
12 10 8
6
4
2
0
1q182q183q184q181q192q193q194q191q202q203q204q201q212q213q214q21
source: NGD filings, IKN ests
Scene set, time for earnings and we begin with the overview chart:
NGD: Quarterly Earnings Overview
9.761
9.68 2.16 8.91
1.551
1.58 6.35 4.61
4.861
7.49 4.16 3.21
2.931
2.501
4.46 4.03-
3.241
7.98 25 6.0
5.821
2.66 6.04 7.12
7.371
7.68
7.94
3.73
9.891
3.79
8.05 8.05
9.461
9.39
1.54
9.52
522
001 25
37
242
001 35
98
250
225
200
175
150
125
100 75
50 25
0
-25
-50
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 tse12q2 tse12q3
$m
revenues
op-ex
deprec/deplet
Mine Op Earnings
source: company filings
In order that you don’t have to flick back to IKN622 to see how our estimates for the quarter
survived reality, here’s a list:
 Revenues at $164.9m came in $5m better than the house estimate. Close enough.
 Op-ex at $93.9m was also a slight improvement on our house guess of $95m. Also
close enough
 DD&A was U$45.1m, compared to our U$51m estimate. Mine was at best an educated
guess on this, tough to call with the New Afton disruption in the quarter.

 G&A at $5.3m was $1.3m higher than expected, an item to keep an eye on in future
quarters.
 Once the small line items are done, the NGD operating earnings of $19.6m was a clear
improvement on the house estimate of $8m.
Overall, we modelled NGD fairly accurately in IKN622 and the better than expected operating
profit is more a product of your author’s
preferred conservatism. We knew coming into
this filing that NGD had a broken quarter, but
they made the most of a bad lot and returned
an acceptable net profit, to boot (right). That’s
a 2.2c net EPS, not enough to justify its
current stock price but more than enough to
keep the company running over a soft quarter.
The market likes that the gold hedge is now
history and 2021 is free of liens, that boosted
margins and everyone knows it. Instead, we
draw your attention to finance cost at NGD, a
below-the-line item that’s been hobbling the
company for years:
NGD: BTL finance cost, per qtr
35
29.8
30
25 21.5
20 16.7 17.8 17.5 17.1 15.3 16.5 16.5 14.3 13.5 14
15
9.4 9.5
10
5
0
24
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 tse12q2
NGD: Net Earnings
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
U$m
source: company filings
The $9.4m result shows improvement over YoY and dramatic improvement over the last two
quarters, during the time NGD re-engineered its corporate debt and financial profile. Those
strategy moves come at a cost (want to refi? Pay a lawyer) but go no further, the FY21 line
item set to be half that of last year.
The NGD conference call that morning was a straightforward event (11), with the company
walking through the numbers, then confirming via several different explanations on both New
Afton and Rainy River that 2021 guidance is on track, production is going well and due to the
previously announced improvement in grades as the year progresses at Rainy River, the
production plan to come in 2021 back end heavy is on track. More interestingly, CEO Renaud
Adams guided to “significant reductions in our costs”, something that would stand NGD out
from the crowd in 2021 as the year rolls out. The only other interesting bit of the CC was when
CEO Adams was justifying the recent strategic purchases of Harte Gold, Talisker and Angus. For
that, I’m going to quote the man directly:
Our 14.9% in Harte is really an opportunity to invest in a good grade underground mine
in Canada. It's a unique opportunity for New Gold, given the team's strong skill set
toward underground mines, including in that part of Canada. We like the new
management in place that has been recently joined the company, significant under-
explored land package, more than 1 million ounces of gold resources at over 10 grams
a tonne and the potential to expand to over 100,000 ounces of production a year.
With regard to our 14.9% in Talisker, this is a significant land package in the
neighbourhood of the New Afton mine that we own in B.C. Their experience to explore,
opportunity to leverage from a historic goal mine and prospective land package and
also potential for multimillion ounces resources.
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

With regards to our 9.9% in Angus, which was really a smaller investment for New
Gold, this is a prospective land package in Noranda mining camp, experience explorer
with this very strong track record of value creation in Canada. So we're very pleased
with the landscape and the strategic and minority investment we've been capable to
put together over the last quarter.
Those comments are in-line with the house call on these purchases, particularly that of HRT.to:
New Gold has made a smart early move and put its marker on HRT, if the company can now
execute on its new plans and leave 2021 in better shape, HRT can turn into an eventual logical
bolt-on for New Gold.
We wrap up with the 10 day, one minute chart of NGD against the standard industry
benchmark GDX. The reaction on Thursday
morning was strong, positive and beat the street,
its gains confirmed in good trading on Friday.
However, even after those two days NGD is
lagging GDX by 18% in 2021 YTD, that’s the type
of catch-up we can get from NGD if as we expect,
its soft Q1 was an anomaly. This time last year,
NGD was my conviction “turnaround story” for
2020. That came to pass, but the financial re-
workings and Q1’s soft production took its toll and
NGD has given back a lot since 3q20. However,
the fundamentals of the case are still on track and
all the company needs is a change of market
sentiment, that comes from delivering on guidance. All NGD needs to do to improve its stock
price is to deliver on the 2021 mine plan, under Renaud Adams I bet it does and will hold my
shares with the house U$2.80 target confirmed, representing an attractive 60% upside to this
weekend’s U$1.75.
Excelsior Mining (MIN.to) 1q21 financials (in US Dollars unless stated)
Friday evening saw our under-performing copper trade, Excelsior Mining (MIN.to), file its 1q21
financials and MD&A to SEDAR. This company should have been in production by now, but the
combo of Covid-19 plus glitches in the start-up phase of operations at its Gunnison In Situ
Leaching/Recovery (ISL/ISR) mine in South AZ, USA, mean production to date has been limited
and is certainly non-commercial. To that end, we’re still getting its quarterly reports as an
exploration/developer company and as such, they don’t reflect much on the future at MIN and
why we are long in the first place. This makes the coverage job easier today, as MIN has
passed financial muster previously and has been in continuation mode since then, there’s less
need to go deep on the company’s financials. Instead, we can whip through the important
basics, note any changes for the better or worse in its outlook, and move on. Before diving in, a
quick reminder that MIN.to may be a Canadian listed company, but due to geography and
practicality reports in US Dollars. Good for me.
We begin with the sheet that really matters, balance items for the asset column coming in very
much as expected:
MIN.to: Assets
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
25
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1
$m
fixed
other current
cash
source: company filings

Cash at $33m was the main change on the quarter, that’s all about the placement run by MIN.
In fact cash&eq as at end March’21 is some $2m higher than my estimate, not a bad thing.
Fixed asset carry rose by $2m on work done, aside from that all is quiet. We move to liabilities
and resulting working capital, as seen below:
MIN.to: Liabilities breakdown, per qtr 160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Current liabilities have risen by $15m and long-term dropped by that a mount as the $!5m loan
taken from Nebari became due and was booted forward by a year, as per the term of the deal.
The clock is now ticking on this loan and while it shouldn’t affect cash flows in the meantime,
the company will surely be aiming for enough revenue in its 2021 pre-production phase to pay
it off. The main lump in long-terms is the derivate on the copper stream held by Triple Flag,
that’s not going away for a long time, then again going concerns issues are also zero.
The situation is made plain in Working Capital, MIN has taken on debt but, with over $31m in
cash and $25m in clear working cap even after the $15m loan is taken into account, MIN has
the liquidity required to get to commercial production.
As for operations, they remain discrete and under the pre-commercial production accountancy
norms, so the house-generated charts are still next to useless and give no regard to the future
of the company. All that’s required at this late stage in MIN’s “exploreco numbers” is a
monitoring of the P+L, so here’s a direct copypaste with a couple of thoughts underneath:
26
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1
source: company filings
srallod
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snoillim
50 MIN.to: Working Capital per qtr
45
40
LT liabs 35
current liabs 30
25
20
15
10
5
0
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1
source company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim

This snapshot P+L offers insight:
 MIN annoyingly doesn’t sub-total expenses. Call me a nit-picker, but I want financial
people and analysts to feel completely at home when they discover this company for
the first time, that includes making their financials user-friendly.
 Expense in the quarter totalled $1.856m, which compares to $1.234m for the same
period of 2020. Here’s one issue, MIN has by necessity beefed up its office in order to
move into production, but the delay in cash flow now means higher burn rate.
 However, share-based compensation is taking part of that load and we like that, 2021
is all about getting to positive free cash flow (FCF+) while retaining treasury cash.
 In Other Items, we note that MIN applied for, got and benefited from US Covid-19
relief program in 2020. Fair enough and I have zero issues over any numerical fallout
from a company covering its back this time last year, we al remember the uncertainty
in the air.
 The only real below-the-line item of note is the derivatives adjustment, this quarter
removing $2.158m from the MIN bottom line. Most important of all, this is a non-cash
adjustment and we don’t care much at this pre-production stage. To explain the loss,
that comes from the way MIN accounts for the copper stream it holds with Triple Flag.
If you want to read up on the mechanism…
…but in a nutshell, you have an original copper asset value, you have the difference in
the value of that copper as market prices change, you have a discount rate on the loan.
As copper goes up, so does the value of the stream you hold with your counterparty,
therefore at some point down the line the producer owes more to the customer. In the
case of 1q21, we know copper launched higher and that move has caused an
approximate 3% increase in the forward pricing of copper (under this contract). Then
an adjustment for the discount rate and the calculation is done, $2.158m. No biggie.
Summing up, the MIN balance sheet is in order with plenty of cash and in 1q21, they controlled
costs as well as they could, but the higher corporate burn rate is something we need to factor
in. Final chart today, that of shares out confirmed at 274,419,834 as at March 31st:
MIN.to: Shares Out
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
27
61q1 61q2 61q3 61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1
source: company filings/IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim
The recent top-up came at 95c and was fully sponsored by big name holders in this for the
long-term. Also, remember how it started as a C$20m raising, was extended twice and ended
up at C$31.7m (12), a popular event. As we noted in our last focus notes on MIN in IKN615
and IKN616 (March 2021), bigger money than us is aware of the delays and technical issues
they need to work through, but we happy to pay 95c for those units when copper spot stood at
$3.60/lb. Three months down the line from that placement, MIN is an 81c stock and spot

copper is U$4.74/lb, a new all-time record. This means that either this stock, company and
project are irretrievably broken, or the market is pricing this story badly. As long as companies
with access to MIN’s data room such as Triple Flag are willing to go along with the story, I see
no reason why we should assume the former. What’s more, CEO Steve Twyerould hasn’t simply
been available to answer questions, queries on the process and the glitches they are going
through during commissioning, he’s been exemplary in being out there, proactive and going
through the whole process via detailed public technical presentations (13). The failure risk is
not zero but the market is way too suspicious of MIN’s problems to date, an opinion often
fuelled by so-called industry experts who simply do not have access to either the required
information, or the brain cells to process it if they have. This is not a “gypsum clogs everything
forever amen” situation, no matter what the wonderful world of social media might tell you to
the contrary.
The negative is in the MD&A.
We get straight to the point: In the 2020 Year-End MD&A, Excelsior told us this about is
anticipated timeline to the first stage of 25m lbs Cu/annum production:
“The Company anticipates achieving the nameplate production rate of 25
million pounds per annum later in 2021.”
Short and unsweet. In the 1q21 MD&A they give more, including an extended timeline. Here’s
the whole section, for your discernment, with the equivalent sentence to the above bold-typed:
The Company has previously disclosed the various issues that have been
identified in during the ramp-up phase of initial production. Certain issues
have been resolved (as detailed in the accompanying MD&A) but a variety of
issues still need to be worked through, such as how to minimize the impact of
carbon-dioxide on fluid flows and how best to maximize flow rates in general.
The reduced flow rates are slowing ramp-up to name plate productions of 25
million pounds per annum. The Company believes this is a finite problem;
however, in an effort to speed up the removal of the effects of carbon-dioxide
or reduce its impact, the Company is undertaking a number of wellfield
optimization programs. These are occurring in conjunction with daily
operations, with the expectation that name plate production will now be
reached in the first half of 2022. To the end of the first quarter of 2021, total
Copper production has reached 185,000 lbs. This low total production number
is due to certain factors including reduced flow rates and the wellfield
operating at a reduced capacity in March 2021 as certain wellfield optimization
initiatives were being tested. Additional wellfield optimization initiatives are
being planned or considered. Many of these may initially be disruptive to
production ramp-up due to the installation and/or testing of equipment or the
application of the initiative. While Management is focused on mitigating the
impact of these initiatives on ramp-up, they may contribute to further
extension of the production ramp-up period.
That is a company being a lot more cautious with its language. It’s also, of course, why the
stock is at 85c and not double the price this weekend, the market still considers MIN to be at
risk of total technical failure and is pricing it accordingly. With this filing, MIN has handed itself
another three quarters of time, Not a good optic, but equally it’s backward-looking and isn’t
going to come as a surprise to the market as a delay of this sort has been priced in ever since
the recent placement closed. Any price weakness tomorrow on the back of this 1q21 is
temporary, the reality is that nothing has changed at MIN since CEO Twyerould sat down for his
long technical talk a month ago.
Bottom Line: I added to my MIN last week, part of the decision to get more exposure to the
risk end of the copper market. The numbers filed by MIN confirm my decision to be long, the
annoyance of the extended commissioning and ramp-up phase a minor negative that doesn’t tip
the balance. The quarterly numbers are in-line, the outlook for commercial production stretched
28

to end 2q22 maximum, but assuming reasonable ramp-up curve MIN will not need any more
money to get to FCF+. Happy holder, the end.
Conclusion
IKN624 is done, we end with bullet points:
 The copper call for 2021 is in place and working, but the decision to fund my trades by
selling Copper Mountain (CMMC.to) wasn’t so good. Today it’s forest for the trees, don’t
get hung up on my personal trades during this copper secular bull run. There will be a
thousand ways to make a profit from copper this year, I offer but a few.
 Gold’s run was good to see as well, but we shouldn’t be under the illusion of new
demand quite yet and last week’s pop was monetary, all about USD weakness.
 Peru’s polls are moving in the right direction, but there will have to be a greater shift
before Pedro Castillo’s frontrunner status is under threat. Also, be careful what you
hope for because at the other end of this election is Keiko Fujimori.
 In company news, New Gold put in a correct quarter and can now play catch-up to the
market, while Excelsior is going to need patience, but these days just considering its
asset value for all that in-situ copper makes it cheap.
 A week with hardly a mention of our Top Pick stocks. So be it.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best, Mark
29

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1)
https://event.on24.com/eventRegistration/EventLobbyServlet?target=reg20.jsp&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.mcew
enmining.com%2F&eventid=3082266&sessionid=1&key=913742C4F6945BAA9039EE61980F124A&regTag=&V2=fals
e&sourcepage=register
(2) https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/83328,
(3)
https://www.cochilco.cl/Paginas/Estudios/Mercados%20de%20metales%20e%20insumos%20estrat%C3%A9gicos/Infor
mes-Semanales-2015.aspx
(4) https://astonbayholdings.com/news/aston-bay-announces-closing-of-the-option-agreement-with-american-west-
metals/
(5) https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/82684/Antler-Gold-Drills-Multiple-Shallow-Intercepts-of-Gold-Silver-and-
Copper-on-Central-Erongo-Project-Central-Namibia-and-Provides-Exploration-Update
(6) https://listindiario.com/la-republica/2021/04/29/668224/barrick-denuncia-personas-que-iban-a-participar-en-dialogo-
fueron-agredidas-por-manifestantes
(7) https://www.bnamericas.com/es/noticias/ministro-de-r-dominicana-reafirma-compromiso-con-mineria-responsable
(8) https://www.diariolibre.com/portada/ministro-de-energia-hay-que-respetar-derechos-de-las-partes-en-conflicto-entre-
barrick-y-comunitarios-de-yamasa-ED26072125
(9) https://www.cooperativa.cl/noticias/economia/sectores-productivos/mineria/economista-el-royalty-aprobado-en-la-
camara-no-es-viable-para-la/2021-05-08/090422.html
(10) https://www.latercera.com/pulso/noticia/cristian-sandoval-nuestros-margenes-sencillamente-no-son-los-que-los-
legisladores-piensan/6RJK2WLUOVGSRBDT64LBA6APTU/
(11) https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/05/06/new-gold-ngd-q1-2021-earnings-call-transcript/
(12) https://www.excelsiormining.com/news/news-2021/xcelsioriningnnounceslosingofoughtealinancing20210222
(13) https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC04WLcN4UOmbuLz7C0ef1nA
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
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Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
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Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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