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The IKN Weekly
Week 623, May 2nd 2021
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In today’s edition, Bill Maher needs to learn about money, Copper
> Gold.
Fundamental Analysis: We are now in a secular bull market for copper.
Stocks to Follow: Pucara Gold (TORO.v), Copper Mountain (CMMC.to),Excelsior Mining
(MIN.to), QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), Strategic Metals (SMD.v), Trilogy Metals (TMQ),
Orezone (ORE.v), Aurelius Minerals (AUL.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, The Peru copper stocks (REG.v, PERU.v, CCCM.v, ECU.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Endeavour Mining (EDV.to).
Tiny Dogs: Overview, Contact Gold (C.v), Antler Gold (ANTL.v).
Regional Politics: Overview, A Peru update.
Market Watching: Opening a “side bet” trade on Roxgold (ROXG.to), Sandstorm Gold (SAND)
(SSL.to) 1q21 financials, Wolfden Resources (WLF.v) 2020 YE and 4q20 financials, Novo
Resources (NVO.to) PEA and financials, Mene Inc (MENE.v) 4q20 and annual financials (in CAD
unless stated).
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
“
Trade heads-up
Despite there being no new trades planned for the Stocks to Follow list, please note that in
today’s Fundamentals note, we outline our plan to add to three of our current holdings, namely
QCCU, SMD and MIN. Also, today’s Market Watching section features the plan to run one of the
occasional “side bet” trades on Roxgold (ROXG.to), tracked in ‘Market Watching’ only. Details
below.
In today’s edition
 Today’s main event is a strategy note on copper, in which we explain our growing belief
that the metal has indeed moved into a supercycle pricing pattern and, as posited by
Goldman Sachs two weeks ago, is set to stay high for an extended period of time. We
also go into strategy implications and my personal ways of playing the expected long-
term copper price boom, suffice to say it’s bullish.
 After last week’s flurry of two sales (CMMC, TORO) and a purchase (QCCU), there are
trades planned in both the Fundies section, and a Side Bet trade in Market Watching.
 Also in Market Watching, we do a bunch of financials from both covered and interesting
companies. For me, the highlight is Mene Inc (MENE.v) and though I try not to hype it
too much, this company in FY21 is on the verge of becoming a major success story.
 This Regional Politics section has Peru updates and details, but overall content is lighter
for a change.
1

Bill Maher needs to learn about money
After an evening of plugging numbers into Excels on Friday, your author kicked back for an
hour by watching a handful of YouTube entertainment segments, including a couple from Bill
Maher and the latest edition of his Real Time show. For what it’s worth I like Maher because
you know where you are with him; he’s funny and quick, wears his Calif-Lib credentials on his
sleeve, but lays into dubious Dems with as much relish as any target on the GOP side. However
this weekend he swung and missed, as in one moment he’s railing against Dogecoin because
it’s “money made up out of thin air”, next he’s praising President Biden for his U$1.9Bn or 3.8
or four (I am honestly losing count, even after reading up on the issue this weekend) stimulus
package to get America back working again, or something.
Where’s the stimulus money coming from, Bill? You think it existed in a box, waiting?
Now I have the hard money advocates in this audience onside, we now lose them again
because Bill is correct on both counts (just not for the reasons he thinks). Yes, Dogecoin is a
joke, but if Bill realized how subversive Dogecoin could be he’d warm to it, as it grabs the
attention of freedom-obsessed fools who want to bring down the government. And yes Bill, I
think the Biden-led plan to get America way out of the rut by spending dollars on itself is a
good, solid and economically orthodox Keynesian plan. The zeroes at the end the numbers
make the mind boggle, but they’re required for an economy that size if your political decision is
to be audacious. We’re all Keynesians now, but to close off the original point, the only real
difference between a joke crypto currency connected with enigmatically smiling dogs and the
most powerful currency on the planet is that the USD is backed up by laws and statutes, while
Dogecoin doesn’t have an army of people with guns and bombs to insist it is real. Apart from
that, same thing.
Copper > Gold
Enough silliness, enough Bill Maher, enough soft intro. We move to the real subject and the Fed
plans to rescue its nation and the world by using Modern Mone(tar)y Theory, or MMT. I’m not
going to pretend the rigorous math expertise required to understand MMT, or how Jay and his
Fed will implement that famous range of tools they have in their famous toolbox. However, the
practical read on whether or not their efforts are successful is easier and well within the remit
of The Weekly, for that we watch the US Dollar and its interaction between Fed and market in
the months to come (with a little politics thrown in for good measure, I suppose). With on the
one hand, a $4Tn project to fund and, on the other, the job of keeping the USD from
weakening against its comparative basket, we can conceptually understand the Fed’s position
as opening the sluices in a controlled manner. They will use their preferred checks and balances
(e.g. jawbone, FOMC, supply tweakings) to keep the dollar from moving much in either
direction as The USA accelerates out of its Covid-19 trough. With expansion comes the impulses
for rates and currencies to strengthen, thereby allowing more leeway for Keynesian-type
injections into the market, which counters the upward pressures on USD and everything stays
steady in Goldilocks Land.
2

Or so the theory goes, but here in May 2021 we can say that if Jay Powell, Janet Yellen, Joe
Biden and whoever else you want to blame are successful in their stimulus strategy, the current
inflation impulse we’re seeing in commodities of all sorts will pass and the US Dollar index
(DXY) flatlines roughly where we are today, 92X. Which means this for gold:
If the US Fed can control the US Dollar against other major world currencies*,
gold will not move significantly higher in this upcoming phase of the market.
Separated out and underlined for a reason. We should not assume their success, as the USD
will require constant monitoring in 2021 for signs that the Fed MMT strategy is on-target. If
MMT blows up and the USD starts to depreciate gold will surely move up swiftly and at that
point, the current house forecast for gold to U$2,000/oz by end 2021 becomes reality. However
(and by now you’ve realized), these days I’m not so sure about gold’s bright future this year.
With the world’s most powerful financial agency aligning its policy to try to stop the USD from
moving very much in either direction, plus gold’s inherent inverse relationship to USD, the set-
up is for a gold failure in which precious metals underperform compared to the industrial metal
complex. Those of us who remember the drudgery of watching other metal-related stocks
improve during the mid 2010’s while gold and other PM plays remained firmly rooted to the
spot, bar those six happy months of 2016, will know the opportunity cost of holding a whole
suite of UNCH stocks in one’s portfolio. This is the risk we want to avoid in 2021.
If the Fed plan works, it should manifest in our small corner of the market with strong market
moves for industrial metals. Precious metals may also move up, but due to them losing favour
as a financial safe haven instrument, they still under-perform BMs. The attraction of gold’s safe
haven diminishes as an economy revs up and the financial world takes its funds out of safe
storage to use in the eternal chase for yield. We’ve seen how GLD bullion inventories have
dropped as The USA recovers, and our Inventory/Price ratio indicates sentiment for gold on
Wall St. is back in the dumpster (below). Sentiment will eventually revert (because it always
does), but the timing is going to be difficult as we’re at the behest of a monetary policy that’s
only just rolling out now, it’s going to take a few months to know whether it works.
8.50 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2016 to date
8.25
8.00
7.75
7.50
7.25
7.00
6.75
6.50
6.25
6.00
5.75
5.50
*The Euro and the Yuan, basically. Afterward we acknowledge Yen, GBP and can throw the CHF in there if you want,
but no rupees, rubles or anything South of the equator, thank you.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
We are now in a secular bull market for copper
Today’s main Fundies note is a strategy piece, rather than a full-on number crunch. Also, as
there are number of bases to cover, before taking another step we turn to Investopia for a
definition of the financial term, “secular market”:
3
61/4/1 61/61/3 61/62/5 61/8/8 61/81/01 61/92/21 71/41/3 71/42/5 71/4/8 71/61/01 71/72/21 81/21/3 81/22/5 81/2/8 81/21/01 81/42/21 91/8/3 91/02/5 91/13/7 91/01/01 91/02/21 02/5/3 02/51/5 02/82/7 02/7/01 02/71/21 12/3/3
GLD gold holdings, 2016 to date (metric tonnes)
1400
1300 Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
61/4/1 61/61/3 61/62/5 61/8/8 61/81/01 61/92/21 71/41/3 71/42/5 71/4/8 71/61/01 71/72/21 81/21/3 81/22/5 81/2/8 81/21/01 81/42/21 91/8/3 91/02/5 91/13/7 91/01/01 91/02/21 02/5/3 02/51/5 02/82/7 02/7/01 02/71/21 12/3/3
mt
source: SPDR GLD data

A secular market is a market that is driven by forces that could be in place for many
years, causing the price of a particular investment or asset class to rise or fall over a
long period. In a secular bull market, positive conditions such as low-interest rates and
strong corporate earnings push stock prices higher.
This publication contends we now have one for copper. Up to this point, the house assumption
has been that of a copper price that flourishes and stays at highly profitable levels for a period
of time, but eventually respects its normal price cycle. Instead, evidence of the so-called
“supercycle” has built to the point where we now join the uber-bullish, those who agree copper
is going higher still and will then stay there, in dollar terms. Today’s note aims to cover these:
 Provide evidence to back up the case for copper’s new and long-term secular bull
market, the Supercycle other market observers still deny.
 Argue that for 2021, industrial metals plays are preferable to precious metals plays.
 Consider near-term and long-term influences on copper price.
 As a consequence, lay out my proposed trades.
And that’s the preamble done.
This year’s spring fashion headliner: Inflation
Last week inundated us with information that “The World’s Consumer Is Back”, and not just via
partisan words from one side of USA’s political spectrum. We note US GDP expanded 6.4%, its
Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence reading for April came in at 121.7 (109.0 in March)
and President Biden made a speech in which he didn’t just threaten to open the spending
sluices, but promised to do so with suh panache, he even had the GOP Party failing to disagree
with him. Yes, those Covid-19 vaccines are working. Yes, optimism has broken out, yes America
is ready for its Roaring Twenties and in the mood to party.
Which means the world of suits and ties is now scaring us with talk of inflation. We’ve had
Warren Buffett telling us about it in Omaha this weekend, we have politicians talking it up, the
market is watching the costs items like a hawk and we have Americas-produced lumber making
the type of price move that adds tens of thousands to the price of a house build (1):
“The surge in lumber prices in the past year has added $35,872 to the price of an
average new single-family home and $12,966 to the market value of an average new
multifamily home, according to the NAHB.”
Yes indeed, top billing on the May’21 Wall Of Worry is inflation and while comparisons to
Venezuela are premature, the Bloomie note “Deepest Backwardation Since ‘07 Shows World
Short on Commodities” dated April (2), gives us background on the cross-sector pop in primary
commodities:
“For an idea of exactly how strong the fundamentals are for commodities such as
metals, agriculture and oil today, consider this: These markets are now showing the
steepest backwardation in more than 14 years.”
And get this eye-catcher of a chart, from the same article:
Also, as Bloomberg’s reporters are under contractual remit to produce “market moving reports”,
4

they don’t spare the rhetoric:
“…urgent demand has flipped about half of major commodity markets tracked
by the Bloomberg Commodity Index including oil, natural gas, copper,
soybeans into backwardation.”
Notice that the word “urgent” is superfluous in that sentence (the cash market implies it), but
you are to walk away with a message instilled. No matter that the same “normalization”
narrative, with which The IKN Weekly successfully predict the top in yields (and therefore the
bottom in gold), still fits perfectly into the visual of that chart. Instead, the more exciting
inflation narrative is back and, as a result, the usual rounds of hardcore goldbugs predicting
precious metals much higher.
That fits a standard narrative too, “death of dollar”, the fear, the rush into gold bullion and
silver coins (above all, silver coins ), so be prepared to read instructions from your preferred
Twitter Guru soon, but sadly the reality of PM markets last week doesn’t fit with Hayek. We
begin with silver, where Comex spot closed at U$25.88/oz and provides our benchmark for its
futures settlements prices. The most popular near-dated traded COMEX contract is now July’21
(SIN21), which closed U$25.86/oz Friday. Further out, the December’21 (SIZ21) contact closed
at U$25.94/oz and the July’22 contract (SIN22) at U$26.04/oz. In other words, spot silver is
either flat to the near-dated futures for the metal, or is in normal contango with long-dated
contracts. The relative flatness of the line suggests some demand pressure, but there’s no
backwardation evident as yet. A similar story in gold, with COMEX cash closing at
U$1,768.28/oz on Friday, then the most active forward contract for June 2021 (GCM21) at
U$1,768.6/oz, virtually the same. The second most traded contract today is August’21 (GCQ21),
which closed at U$1,769.8/oz and further out, you can buy your ounce of gold for December
delivery at U$1,773.6/oz, showing normal contango.
In other words neither silver nor gold are included in “…about half of major commodity markets
identified by Bloomberg and others as being in backwardation this weekend.” We return to the
subject in a moment, but first what of industrial metals and their curve? For that the benchmark
is straightforward, step forward Doctor Copper PhD:
COMEX Copper contracts, at Friday close
4.50
4.49
4.48
4.47
4.46
4.45
4.44
4.43
4.42
4.41
4.40
4.39
4.38
5
hsaC yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 22naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 32naj
U$/lb
source: COMEX
The copper futures curve shows classic backwardation, cash premium has spiked and the
plateau of pricing through the rump of 2021 indicates further supply worries in the medium-
term. It’s one of the “in demand” commodities, loved by China and cited by Bloomie.
Thoughts on copper in the near term
The blog post “East against West over copper” during the week (3) noted an increase in passive
opposition to copper’s price direction. It also referenced a well-written op-ed from the Reuters
metals desk, this time from Clyde Russell, that brings light on the spread between the standard
world copper contracts (normally via the LME) and the new INE futures contracts denominated
in Yuan, plus what the relationship might mean (4). Here’s a relevant except (but check the
whole note out, good grist for the mill):

In November the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) launched bonded copper
futures, yuan-denominated contracts open to international investors with delivery into warehouses
prior to the application of customs duties and taxes.
These contracts are different to the existing Shanghai Futures Exchange derivatives, which
include the cost of duties and taxes and are mainly aimed at the domestic copper market.
The INE futures are therefore more closely aligned with the LME contract, and price differences
between the two would normally be a result of variances between the strength of Chinese and
global demand.
Since inception, the INE three-month contract has largely traded at a premium to its LME
counterpart, reflecting stronger Chinese demand for copper.
For example at the end of last year the INE contract, converted into U.S. dollars, was $152.77 a
tonne above the LME equivalent, and at the start of this month the premium was $81.96.
However, it has recently reversed to trade at a discount to the LME benchmark, ending at the
equivalent of $9,684.78 a tonne on Monday, a discount of $66.22 to the LME close of $9,751.
Interesting of course, this desk is always looking for this type of ratio tell. Time to check it out,
so here’s the page (5) for the SHFE/INE
copper contract and to pick an obvious
benchmark, its most liquid near-term
futures contract closed at a USD-
adjusted U$9,930.65/mt (this graphic
generated on-site, right). That compares
to the LME Friday close (6) for its three-
month contract of U$9,939.5/mt. In
other words, INE is still trading at a
slight discount this weekend but the big
U$66/mt arbitrage has all-but dried up.
For another, consider Friday US trading
and the selling we saw into the close. By
the time the USA had shut for the
weekend, its equivalent most liquid near-term contract had closed at U$4.456/lb. The SHFE
equivalent is $4.5044/lb and 3.5c higher, but the real comparative would be the price range in
the equivalent trading area overnight Friday. That was all-but the same as the INE close
Further to that Reuters note, IKN reports its effects are already dimming. That would suggest
healthier demand for copper than the market was signalling earlier in the week, but equally the
type of demand we saw during the Perfect Storm price rise period has disappeared, and the
INE contract is finding its new relationship with the wider world market.
With this, we circle back to the other point in last week’s blog post, that the price of copper is
suddenly hitting a roof at U$4.50/lb and there are people trying to knock it down from that
level, too. In the Copper Basket section of IKN622 last weekend, we noted the growing talk
among Chilean copper people that China was moving to oppose the metal’s bull run. There’s
both history of Chinese opposition, and means to execute. Again this fits, we are at all-time
high levels for copper and any new impulse higher will mean headlines about records being set
for the “Green Revolution Metal” on a daily basis. So pull down the most basic of charts, long-
6

term spot in US Dollars, if an extremely bullish run in the metal is going to stall for a while, it’s
going to stall here.
Copper and longer-term prices
But don’t expect this $4.50/lb ceiling to last forever. We have gone over the price drivers for
the metal on umpteen occasions and, as stated above, have fallen into line and agree in broad
stroke terms with both Goldman Sachs and the Friday copper panel on the upcoming effects of
the EV/Battery revolution on copper demand (and therefore price).
Instead today, a different line of evidence. As we expect copper prices are set to improve faster
than gold, it means the Copper/Gold Ratio is about to break out from long-term resistance:
In fact, our “beat the MMT” argument relies on this ratio breaking out. That might seem a
rather Technical and “charty” argument from these pages, but when we consider the longer-
term backdrop to the Copper/Gold Ratio, it becomes more apparent that we aren’t just
expecting a spike higher any longer:
7

The key point here is to note a sea change in the relationship, as even as late as 2011, long
AFTER the GFC, copper was still trading in its long-term range to gold. We now know how Fed
policy stomped on gold and commodity prices back then, but (and yeah, let’s say it) this time
really is different. Concerted global stimuli have been a sequence of “Whatever It Takes” policy
moves to dig us out form the virus recession, of which Biden’s next whopper will only be the
latest. The surge in demand for raw materials across the board tells no lies, the market mix has
swung back in favour of industrial commodities in USD terms.
At this point a slight interjection and another recommendation for the webcast featured on the
blog this weekend (7) in which three junior copper CEOs, Alistair Ross of Rockcliff, Brian Booth
of E29 and Leif Nilsson of Surge talk (and to quote myself), “…copper, the EV revolution, future
tech, Covid and all things related to the future demand of the metal on Friday morning.” You
don’t have to swallow every aspect of their bullish argument in order to come away with more
reasons to buy/add to the copper stock of personal preference, either. Quality food for thought.
Discussion and plan of action
The objective of today’s strategy note was to argue and present evidence that, while macro
price inflation may or may not be in our future, in USD terms commodities inflation is real and it
is now. We then go on to argue that due to the Fed’s plans that will focus on the keeping the
USD stable against world economies, industrial metals are a better bet than precious metals at
this present time. We then zeroed in on copper, although the above statements on base metals
apply equally to zinc (Zn) and our recently opened small trade in Wolfden (WLF.v). Regarding
the near-term for copper, we’re probably ahead of ourselves in price at the moment and, while
wholesale price weakness isn’t in the cards, there’s enough about the way it’s traded to suspect
that we’re going to go through a consolidation period. The INE premium has disappeared and
the Backwardation of the market is driven by spot price speculation. China, as the world’s major
end-user, will oppose bullish speculation moves.
However, longer-term we expect the U$4.50/lb line to be broached and left behind, as near-
term price speculation cannot hide the new, long-term secular bull market for copper that has
emerged out of Covid-19. The well-read Goldman Sachs report of last month put the metal
firmly in the world financial spotlight and rightly so, its projections are reasonable and its
conclusions highly bullish for the metal, when the team around Jeff Currie project copper to
U$15,000/tonne, I have no problem at all in believing it. As a consequence, house strategy for
the foreseeable future is to look for opportunities in early-stage copper explorecos in safe
jurisdictions. That would be an optimum mix of four main criteria, let’s break that sentence
down:
 Early-stage: I’m looking for cheap entry points in companies with undervalued land
assets. In the medium-term, producers (e.g. CMMC will be back on the menu).
 Copper: Preferable, thanks to its unique position as China’s most required import metal
(after iron ore) and its novel role in the EV and battery revolutions. However, zinc (e.g.
Wolfden), tin, lead, alu or other base metals can work as well, depending on the case.
 Explorecos: To underscore, at this point I prefer to invest less money on riskier trades,
retaining treasury cash for opportunities on any pullback in copper.
 Safe Jurisdictions: After the events in South America recently, this should now be clear.
All regions and jurisdictions are going to raise burdens on mining companies, what
matters is by how much and how friendly the deal is toward the industry.
With that, we offer our new plan of action. In fact, the plan has been in action for some time,
today note is more of a crystallization point. You may remember how it took a while for the
penny to drop on these pages but, in early November, your author saw the light and went
bullish on copper in time to catch The Perfect Storm price period. That was late 2020, not for
nothing has The IKN Weekly opened four new base metals trades so far in 2021 (SMD.v, ECU.v,
8

WLF.v, QCCU.v) but just one PM trade (Cartier (ECR.v) and it’s lagged to date as well).
The plan is already rolling out, with the recent sale of Copper Mountain (CMMC.to) on the back
of its excellent quarter, as reported Monday morning (see Market Watching, below). This funds
treasury, plus the purchases of QCCU.v and the additions to SMD.v and MIN.to planned for the
next few days. With these, we’re moving further out on the risk curve but also protecting
against any near-term weakness in the price of copper. If my guess is right and copper needs
time to breach U$4.50/lb, the opportunity to buy back into the small-medium sized copper
operator sector should reappear, with CMMC.to likely high on my personal shopping list (you
may prefer CS.to, ARG.to, ATY.v to name but three peers). In other words, yes, I’m setting
myself up for embarrassment and failure by getting too cute with the market because, if copper
blows through U$4.50/lb at its next attempt and never looks back, CMMC will be a lot higher
before I can buy it back. However, I maintain the most powerful part of the gain in CMMC is
now behind us and even if a continued vertical-style bull market, buying the smallcap and
tinycap end of the market is a sound strategy for smaller-sized money.
To summarize the plan, a quicklist of moves to date and for the week ahead:
 The sale of Copper Mountain (CMMC.to) last week, as best of the run is done.
 The purchase of QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v) last week, right metal in the right
jurisdiction.
 The addition of QCCU,v, planned for this week. I see no reason to procrastinate and
prefer to get this trade up from its current small size before its newsflow begins.
 The addition to Strategic Metals (SMD.v) planned for this week. While not strictly
copper, SMD’s appeal lays in the sheer amount of prospective land assets on its books,
coupled with smart JVs with friendly partner companies. As fixed assets re-rate, I get to
enjoy the fruits of buying value.
 The addition to Excelsior Mining (MIN.to) planned for this week. With a round of copper
purchases in the offing, it is only right to add some to this holding while prices are low.
The success of the company is dependent on the ISL field working without glitches and
we expect the company to deliver.
 However, our revised strategy also requires cash in treasury, the proceeds from the
sale of CMMC larger than the aggregate of the above small moves. If, as we believe
copper takes its time to push through the current price level, we will have funds for
opportunities in producer copper stocks as bargains appear.
 Finally, in the case that our plan works too well and gold flatlines 2021, the most likely
portfolio adjustment would be an eventual sale of New Gold (NGD) before it reaches
target. I’m happy to leave room to be wrong and there will be no quick decision.
That’s enough strategy for one day.
Stocks to Follow
It was a negative week for the mining sector, better base metals prices weren’t enough to pull
the sector higher, while the precious metals were slightly lower. The benchmark ETFs for PM
miners (GDX down 4.63% week-over-week), juniors (GDXJ down 4.52% WoW) and gold bullion
(GLD down 0.44% WoW) are a fair illustration of the negativity, let’s add in the silver bullion
ETF this week and its 1.2% drop. All the same direction.
As a result, our Stocks to Follow portfolio took its hit as well. The main damage was at the top,
with Top Picks Minera Alamos (MAI.v down 9.7%) and Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v down 10.8%) both
9

taking large hits. They are two of the eight losers on the week (MAI.v, RIO.v, TMQ, NGD,
RYR.v, WLF.v, ECR.v, MENE.v), plus there were two unchanged stocks (ORE.v, MIRL.cse). This
leaves five winners (SMD.v, MIN.to, QCCU.v, GBR.v, AUL.v) and, while the smaller holdings
weren’t enough to cover the losses in the larger holdings on the week, the percentage move
from QC Copper (QCCU.v up 31.3%) adds a cosmetic sheen.
With the two sales and single addition last week, we are back at 15 open positions and our self-
imposed limit. Seven open stocks are in the green, eight are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.65 209.5% New $1.14 tgt Aug'20 #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.74 -10.8% $1.58 tgt, bot again Nov'20
Recommended stocks (In order of preference)
Trilogy Metals TMQ STR BUY U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$2.26 22.8% Added Dec'20, Cu for 2021
Strategic Metals SMD.v STR BUY C$0.40 31-Jan-21 C$0.46 15.0% Asset $ trade, proj generator
New Gold NGD STR BUY U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$1.66 118.4% tgt $2.80 end '21
Excelsior Mining MIN.to STR BUY C$0.98 10-Mar-19 C$0.81 -17.3% Delayed, but still great value
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v BUY C$0.19 25-Apr-21 C$0.21 10.5% New Cu exploreco
Royal Road Min. RYR.v BUY C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.35 125.8% Model paying off in Nica
Wolfden Res. WLF.v BUY C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.28 -6.7% near-term Zn trade
Great Bear Res GBR.v BUY C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$14.64 -7.5% Binary M&A trade, wait for print
Cartier Resources ECR.v hold C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.29 -9.4% Binary M&A trade, wait for print
Orezone ORE.v BUY C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$0.95 20.3% Binary M&A trade, wait for print
Aurelius Res AUL.v spec buy C$0.075 28-Jun-20 C$0.065 -13.3% added on further drill hits Apr'21
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.09 -53.8% CEO change will move stock
Long-term non-mining hold
Mene Inc. MENE.v LT Hold C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.55 -12.7% LT bet on jockey&horse,will add
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Mining NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
2015 to 2020 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on a some of our covered stocks:
Pucara Gold (TORO.v): Position closed. As per the plan and gone at 26c.
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to): Position closed. I had the strong sensation of selling too
early at $4.18 on Monday morning. That turned out to be the case and the midweek spikes on
bulish copper sentiment meant I left some soft money on the table (and missed on scoring an
official 200%+ winner), but no biggie in the end. Position closed, nice print, cash position is
healthy again.
Excelsior Mining (MIN.to), QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), Strategic Metals (SMD.v):
ADDING: As per today’s Fundies note (above, a quick line to confirm that I plan to add to all
three of these I the week to come, extending my portfolio exposure to small copper explorecos.
In the case of SMD, we can of course argue as to which metal is prevalent in its suite of land
10

assets and at the moment, it’s likely gold. However, the land asset re-rating argument works as
well if not better with this stock and its exposure to partners via equity gives more leverage
potential.
In the case of MIN, it becomes stupid to ignore this low price while adding copper exposure
elsewhere. We’re still exposed to the development risk, but the market has that overblown and
CEO Twyerould has been clear in his explanations recently. Adding and averaging down.
In the case of QCCU, we also need to acknowledge last week’s opening trades that got in
before it shot higher (and I even got some 18c). That will be at or above 20c by this time next
week, as I won’t mind paying up. We should have drill news flow soon, CEO Stewart telling me
last week that it’s difficult to second-guess precisely on the assay lab backlog, but past history
and current sentiment aims us for a one to two week delay before the next news arrives. In
other words, this week or next most likely for news.
Trilogy Metals (TMQ): The news late last week that TMQ had, after consultations with
shareholders, cut its proposed incentive options plan from 3.5m to 1.5m units shows a couple
of things:
1) It’s nice to have a larger shareholder looking out for the interests of retail. Also, no
matter what C-suites might say to the contrary, all shareholders’ opinions are not equal
and if you have umpteen millions of shares, it matters.
2) South32 is considering carefully who is and is not deserving of reward come the
buyout.
Extremely easy to hold this stock, copper and a binary buyout play at the same time.
Orezone (ORE.v): The stock that jumped to mind on news of the FSM/ROXG deal (see Market
watching), ORE just moved one step further up the shopping list.
Aurelius Minerals (AUL.v): It was almost funny to see this trade at 5.5c on Friday, proof if
any were needed that sellers sell for their own reasons. Eventually AUL bounced back and
closed at 7c
The Copper Basket
After seventeen weeks of 2021, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 29.97% to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.08 104.67 1041.47 9.95 63.7%
2 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 1.81 207.5 850.75 4.10 126.5%
3 Oroco Res OCO.v 1.85 185.11 497.95 2.69 45.4%
4 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.25 64.358 350.75 5.45 67.7%
5 Western Copper WRN.to 1.57 135.6 241.37 1.78 13.4%
6 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.80 180.77 224.15 1.24 55.0%
7 Excelsior Min. MIN.to 1.12 273.585 221.60 0.81 -27.7%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.07 101.85 75.37 0.74 -30.8%
9 Chakana Cop PERU.v 0.60 117.2 57.43 0.490 -18.3%
10 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.115 375.17 56.28 0.15 30.4%
11 Doré Copper DCMC.v 1.00 40.938 47.49 1.16 16.0%
12 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.455 93.64 46.82 0.50 9.9%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.45 66.7 24.35 0.365 -18.9%
14 US Copper USCU.v 0.105 87.53 19.69 0.225 114.3%
15 Chibougamau CBG.v 0.165 46.695 7.94 0.17 3.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 29.97%
11

A brief comment at the start of last week’s Copper Basket section now looks good. On noting
copper spot prices back to new highs but our junior basket lagging, the catch-up was due:
“We have some ground to make up and it’s not just the events in Peru that have held
the basket back. If copper continues North this coming week, another rush up may be
in the cards as money returns to the exploreco end of copper.
Below is the result, the smallcap end of the copper world did indeed play catch-up to its larger
siblings on the week, the above chart now resembling the 2021 copper spot chart more closely.
The Copper Basket 2021, weekly evolution
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
12
ts1
naJ
ht01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yam
source: IKN calcs
With copper again strong and blasting over U$4.50/lb for the first time in a long time, the
catch-up happened on cue.
We’re not covering the same ground here as in today’s main strategy note in the Fundies
section, instead this Reuters note from earlier in the week (8) which starts as follows:
LONDON, April 27 (Reuters) - Copper prices climbed on Tuesday towards the record
above $10,000 a tonne seen a decade ago as worries about supply disruptions in Chile
due to strikes and robust demand reinforced expectations of shortages this year.
Bullish enough for you? Well in fact, Reuters lost no time in making the bear case known to the
reader, the note offering a source expressing doubt on the price run. They also offered this
snippet…
“…ED&F Man Capital Markets analyst Edward Meir said another reason behind copper
price strength may be elections in Peru, the world’s no. 2 copper producer, where the
presidential front-runner has proposed nationalising mining.”
…which only shows how little Edward Meir understands about Communism or about Peru.
There are other ways of making sure a company makes its quotas, other than it making a profit
or rewarding its directors with fat bonuses. Jailing them, for example.
It’s the end of another month, we bring up out long-term copper inventory tracker charts:

Copper inventories, per month, 2012 to date
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
13
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram
Mt Cu source: Cochilco
Comex
Shanghai
LME
The world would normally see net inflows to warehouses during April, this time we trod water
at a low level. The split of stocks among the three official world systems (below) agrees:
Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram
LME Shanghai Comex source: Cochilco
A month that provided many questions and few answers about the future of copper supply,
hence the nervous market and speculation. We move from the long-term to the regular weekly
copper inventories coverage, the bullish data still flowing:
 For the second week running, all three official systems lost inventory and the overall
copper inventories aggregate dropped by 14,886 metric tonnes (mt) (-3.4%) to close
the week at 404,0759mt.
 The SHFE has done adding and the small, 2,567mt drop on the week was enough to
pull the total back under the 200k line, we closed Friday at 199,870mt.
 Also for the second consecutive week, the biggest drop as at the LME, with 12,025mt (-
7.7%) leaving stocks (mostly Italy) and with cancelled warrants still covering 48.4% of
physical stocks, tendency again to the downside. This weekend’s total is 143,725mt
 The COMEX saw its stocks lose 294mt, this weekend’s total 60,480mt.
Here is the Shanghai-only inventories chart, the top now formed and there’s no need to repeat
here the message found all over this weekend’s edition. Copper supply isn’t just a financial or
market matter any longer, it threatens to become as geopolitical as oil.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
ht5naj ht61 ht52 dr3gua ht21 ts12 5102
ts1ram
ht01 ht91 ht72 ht6ced ht41 ht42 6102
dr3luJ
ht11 ht72 ht5beF ht61 ht52 7102
dr3pes
ht21 ts12 8102
ts1rpa
ht71 ht62 8102
ht4von
9102
ht31naj
ht42 9102
dn2nuj
ht11 ht02 ht92 ht8 ht71 0202ht62luj ht4tco 0202ht31ced ts12 1202dn2yam
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco

The Peru copper stocks (REG.v, PERU.v, CCCM.v, ECU.v): The effect of comparing our
four Peru exposed copper juniors to the main copper producer ETF (COPX), makes for a overly-
busy visual, the lines of the more thinly traded explorecos jumpy and the visual lacks elegance,
but it makes its point.
Within reason and trading ranges, the market
stopped discounting Peru-exposed copper
juniors last week, considering that the bulk of
the recent surprise downside is now baked in.
That’s fair and I have nothing against the
market marking these new prices. None of
these stocks are suddenly worth zero just
because a certain Pedro Castillo has arrived on
the scene and, while we can argue about the
percentage of discount to apply, there has to
be a baseline somewhere. The market says
here and as its decision doesn’t affect me
anyway (as there is no way I expose further
to the upcoming madness in Peru), that’s fine. Avoid Peru.
The Producer Basket
After seventeen weeks of 2021, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 8.03% to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out Mkt Cap (U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 59.89 803.36 50.14 62.41 4.2%
2 Barrick GOLD 22.78 1779.04 37.93 21.32 -6.4%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 70.51 242.99 15.27 62.84 -10.9%
4 Kirkland Lake KL 41.27 272.984 10.12 37.07 -10.2%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 7.34 1260 8.87 7.04 -4.1%
6 Pan American PAAS 34.71 210.17 6.69 31.82 -8.3%
7 Endeavour Min EDV.to 29.62 246.2 5.25 25.59 -13.6%
8 B2Gold BTG 5.60 1064 5.14 4.83 -13.8%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 8.75 392.73 3.14 7.99 -8.7%
10 Pretium Res PVG 11.48 187.254 1.96 10.49 -8.6%
Prices in U$ except EDV.to (share price in CAD$ and mkt cap in approx USD) Port. avg -8.03%
While bullion proxy GLD lost a modest 0.44% on the week, the producing precious metals
miners had a worse time of it. ETFs GDX dropped 4.63%, GDXJ 4.52% and our basket went the
same way, with all ten stocks week-over-week losers. Seeing speculative cash head for the door
on the first excuse like this isn’t a good look for the rest of the year, the size of the sell-offs also
disconcerting with “least worst” Kirkland Lake (KL) down 3.7%, most large producers down
between 4% and 5% and Endeavour taking a big hit (EDV.to down 10.2%). Our tracking charts
show how GDX managed to come up for air just two weeks, meanwhile our more volatile mix
with smaller sized producers and less defensiveness from royalty/streamers continues to lag the
benchmark.
The 2021 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and 4%
comparative to GDX control
0%
-4%
-8%
-12%
-16%
-20%
14
ts1
naJ
ht01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yam
The 2021 Producer Basket: Percentage difference between
GDX benchmark and basket (negative = IKN basket ahead)
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
basket 2.0%
gdx control 1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
source: Google, IKN Calcs
ts1
naJ
ht01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yam
source: IKN calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq/TSX data

Endeavour Mining (EDV.to): In the week Fortuna (FSM) announced its approx C$1Bn
friendly deal to buy Roxgold (ROXG.to), it was telling to see EDV underperform even the soft
level of the GDX:
The market may be baking in a run at ROXG by EDV, which would be both feasible and in-line
with its corporate strategy. There may be a trade here, but below is the better thought and my
decision to speculate with a long on ROXG next week.
The Tiny Dogs
After seventeen weeks of 2021, the Tiny Dogs show a gain of 10.18% to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Antler Gold ANTL.v 0.205 61.348 10.43 0.17 -17.1%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.045 163.975 6.56 0.04 -11.1%
Constantine Met CEM.v 0.17 45.4 12.26 0.27 58.8%
Contact Gold C.v 0.115 240.757 22.87 0.095 -17.4%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.22 40 6.40 0.16 -27.3%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.045 230.79 23.08 0.10 122.2%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.240 106.241 17.00 0.16 -33.3%
QC Copper QCCU.v 0.315 105 22.05 0.21 -33.3%
Red Pine Expl RPX.v 0.400 95.806 69.94 0.73 82.5%
Warrior Gold WAR.v 0.090 91.818 6.43 0.07 -22.2%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 10.18%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything
else. Tiny Dogs, 2021 weekly tracker
20%
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. 18%
This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, 16%
as we want news and potential catalysts from 14%
companies with projects that can work. 12%
 Decent management if possible. When you are 10%
down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too 8%
6%
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have
4%
teams or people with good peer reputations.
2%
0%
15
ts1
naJ
ht71 ts13 ht41 ht82 ht41 ht82 ht11 ht52
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

Overall, there was little change to the basket average on the week, with six losers (ANTL.v, C.v,
MTU.v, PRG.v, RPX.v), one UNCH (BAY.v) and three winners (CEM.v, GDP.v, QCCU.v). The big
moves in GDP.v (+18.5%) an QCCU.v (up 31.3%) were enough to keep the basket average in
double figures. Now for some notes on two of our covered stocks.
Contact Gold (C.v): The only unexpected part of the drop last week is that it came so quickly,
as we’d already identified in IKN622 last weekend that the news that Contact Gold (C.v) is
redomiciling to BC Canada would drag heavily on its share price. The five day price chart shows
sellers dominating:
It is set to be a chronic drag on the stock price, not a one-and-one negative. But the disdain is
showing immediately and on further consideration, it’s easy to see why. People are offered a
tax penalty to hold and a likely tax benefit for a loss sale and one less thing to worry about at
the end of 2021. It’s a no-brainer, and so ends another chapter in business manners for an
exploreco run by geologists.
Antler Gold (ANTL.v): Along with dozens of other TSXV explorecos, ANTL filed its 2020 year-
end and 4q20 financials last week (the Friday 30th deadline making Thursday and Friday
evenings the big datadump days on SEDAR). ANTL’s numbers had no surprises, but I’d like to
take a few column inches this week to note the “raw material” image at ANTL presently:
Here’s the P+L, in which we see ANTL basically shut up shop last year and spent enough to kep
the lights on at HQ:
That share-based compensation is over 50% of the annual net loss shows the penny-pinching.
Over at the balance sheet, we get this:
16

ANTL ran a small financing in 2020, adding just under 15m shares to the count and leaving the
year with cash in the treasury and no debt of real consideration (there are no long-term
liabilities, that 161k is everything). This is what a company’s books look like when their strategy
was to write-off 2020 as a bad job. ANTL has its exploration assets in Namibia, not an easy
logistical jump under Covid-19 and it’s notable they
are only now beginning to staff up for the 2021
season. Overall, ANTL’s call on 2020 is valid and
we’re left with a corporate structure that’s clean
and ready to leverage value if (repeat IF) they find
something of value. By the look of its 24 month
price chart (right) current shareholders of ANTL
would have likely got in on that volume surge one
year ago and now feel frustrated about FY20 (was
that a newsletter pump? I do not know), but those
of us on the sidelines looking in can approve now
that the financial prudence is on display.
I’ve seen worse balance sheets than this one. For
example Novo Resources (NVO.to), see below for a reminder on how management decisions on
mining projects affect share prices.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It is possible that in the
future I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, but at the moment both my opinion and my wallet are strictly
neutral.
Regional politics
Overview
I’m giving myself the week off. The Regional Politics section of The IKN Weekly has been an
outsized part of many editions recently, what with Covid-19 continuing to accelerate in the
region, the election in Ecuador, the election in Peru and the overall trend toward resource
nationalism policies in many states. Coverage will continue, but for one week only we’re going
to reduce Regional Politics to notes on the ongoing mess in Peru and I get a break from all the
17

drudge. Too much politics is bad for the brain.
Peru round-up
The round two election campaign was marked by two events, firstly a DATUM poll which put
the gap between Pedro Castillo and Keiko Fujimori at 10 points, down from 20 in its first run-off
reading. The reliability of polls leading up to round two will come into question. Also in Peru,
yesterday Saturday saw the two candidates put on a debate in the town square in Chota,
Cajamarca (home town of Pedro Castillo). The two used the occasion to launch insults at each
other and populist proposals for the country, with Bloomberg’s money-based view of Castillo’s
performance on Saturday clear from the title, “Peru Leftist Candidate Pledges to Seize Foreign
Company Profits” (9). The note repeats Castillo’s announcement to review contracts with all
transnational companies, his 70/30 line about profits from mining, and how he’ll raise
investment in education to 10% of GDP, among other measures. Regarding this, Keiko also
used the debate to announce a range of populist initiatives, promising 3,000 schools and
hospitals built along with the interestingly named “Oxygen Bond”, a payment to any household
who has lost someone to Covid-19.
The “debate” was more heat than light and, while all and sundry say Keiko won it (because
she’s a better orator and more experienced politico, normal), anything mentioned on social
media misses the point. Castillo understands his audience is not Lima or the Twitterati, his
simple and clear messaging is aimed at those who get their news from radio and TV in the
provinces of the country. “If you are poor, you will get free things and the rich will pay.” It’s
simple, direct and it’s working.
Bottom line: Nothing changed last week and all talk of a Keiko comeback is wishful thinking.
Barring unforeseen circumstances, Pedro Castillo wins on June 5th.
Peru stocks since IKN613
While on the subject, we step back and review the effect Peru’s political woes have had on its
public traded companies. This chart offers a selection, with miners prominent (of course) but
BAP bank is there, along with the Peru stock market ETF track, EPU:
Since February 13th and our initial call to sell exposure to Peru, stocks are off typically between
10% and 30%. To me, that indicates there’s more downside potential and that the market has
not priced in what a Communist executive would mean to the country.
China and Peru
A subject that’s come up in several conversations with subscribers and blog readers recently is
China’s potential future in Peru, mostly regarding its metals and mining industry, but more
general influences too. The connection is an obvious one, as China already has a major
footprint in Peru through several has major copper operations (Las Bambas, Toromocho,
Marcona etc), plus Peru has many advanced stage copper projects and a geological endowment
18

for the metal that’s the envy of the world. China’s voracious appetite for copper will only get
stronger as the decades go on and its a history of careful, long-term Central Planning of the
economy tells us they won’t leave supply to chance (or the dollar market). Having seen Ecuador
go against their man Arauz last month, China would certain want to connect with any eventual
Castillo government in Peru. The brand of social conservatism and hard left policies proposed
by the PL Party and Castillo fit hand-in-glove with Chinese ideology. And China has the cash
Peru needs, desperately. Not only would the country be interested in more asset purchases
behind a nominal policy to expand bilateral trade, but by some weird coincidence this week saw
reports appear in the “Never Keiko” end of Peru’s press about a potential Chinese aid offers,
including the construction in Lima of rapid build field hospitals, the type put together in Wuhan
in mere days at the start of the main crisis.
Market Watching
Opening a “side bet” trade on Roxgold (ROXG.to)
The main M&A news on the week even got a mention on the blog, as Fortuna Silver’s (FSM)
(FVI.to) move to buy West Africa gold producer Roxgold (ROXG.to) (10) caused a substantial
drop in FVI shares, wiping out most of the buyout bonus ROXG holders may have expected:
Some weakness was to be expected, but the depth of the drop on the news is more about the
relatively weak paper FVI brings to the deal. After all, not many interlopers on a West Africa
located gold mine get complaint from current holders that the new company will worsen its
political risk and ESG optics, rather than improve them. It’s also less than a year since FSM
went to market to raise top-up capital to finish the Lindero build-out,. We’re not talking about a
king-sized, Tier 1 or 2 balance sheet. The C$40m break fee dilutes to around 10c/share on the
ROXG count of just under 375m shares out, not insurmountable by any means. Plus with
66.67% of votes needed to carry the deal and lock-ups nowhere near that number, there’s
ample room for a third party (e.g. anything Chinese, or B2Gold, or Endeavour) to move on
ROXG and, with Friday’s C$2.04 close a mile away from the supposed C$2.73 ticket price on
this all-paper deal, there’s room too. The obvious call here is to buy ROXG, its potential upside
coming from three places:
 Disappointment in the deal arrangement saw sellers appear, that brief period
of overselling is likely done with.
 If ROXG holders reject the deal, they get the 15% lost to the drag on FVI.
 With ROXG now potentially in play and gold assets in demand, Chinese money
may move ROXG higher quickly.
As speculations on M&A go, this one has low downside risk and three reasons for upside, with
one of them potentially providing a big win. I plan to buy a few ROXG.to next week, as long as
there’s a good value entry point on offer tomorrow morning, as close to C$2.00 as possible.
Quantifiably, by taking the ROXG buyout ticket price of C$2.73 as our benchmark, buying ROXG
19

for up to C$2.20 provides a 25% arb and enough width for the risk. That’s too expensive for my
retail gut, however, and C$2.10 will be my limit.
Bottom line: Fortuna’s buyout of Roxgold saw a deep sell-off in the aggressor and, as a result,
buyout premium in ROXG was wiped out. However as this desk believes the main cause is FVI’s
own weak paper rather than market conditions, there are reasonable grounds for a speculative
flip trade in ROXG:
 If ROXG doesn’t get 66 2/3rd of the votes, the deal lapses and with value now revealed,
ROXG will pop from this weekend’s price.
 FVI may feel compelled to sweeten the deal, in light of market reaction. ROXG goes
higher.
 We have had ample evidence of predatory Chinese capitals looking for gold assets, this
deal comes in West Africa, their idea of a future backyard. Add in B2Gold (eat or be
eaten) and the ever-aggressive EDV.to in the region and the price drop of the pro-
forma complex has left plenty of room for a third party.
Downside risks exist (of course), aside the gold price the main one being the deal moving
ahead without raising further eyebrows. However, price-wise there seems little downside from
this point, upside risk is both more obvious and stronger. Therefore, with the serendipity of
fresh cash in the personal treasury I am a buyer of ROXG.to next week. This is a near-term
fliptrade, we are not concerned with the medium-term of the companies in question, its going
to be a small-ish trade to boot. Due to that, this is going to be one of the occasional “side bet”
trades we run exclusively in the ‘Market Watching’ section of The IKN Weekly, not a more
formal trade that gets added to the ‘Stocks to Follow’ list and goes under close coverage. With
this trade, I’m looking for a decent win in a short period of time, no more or less, and wil
happily take profits on whatever reason shows. By buying ROXG next week, I play the
percentages around an M&A situation and give myself a three in four chance of coming out with
a profit. To close, a two year comparative chart of the two companies plus a final thought.
Sandstorm Gold (SAND) (SSL.to) 1q21 financials
The cycle never stops and, while explorecos filed their 2020 year-end financials after the long
early-year grace period for small companies, the larger and quicker-reporting Sandstorm Gold
Royalties (SAND) (SSL.to) was already a quarter ahead, filing its 1q21 financials on Thursday
evening April 29th. Though we don’t currently own or cover SAND, it’s an interesting company
to examine as its global footprint and revenues from streams/royalty deals from many points on
the globe give a useful snapshot of activity in the sector, and at other companies.
First we cover the company itself and, overall, its results were in-line with expectations (the
best reason of several as to why I’m not buying back in for the moment). The operations
overview chart is the best hack on the quarter, with pre-announced U$31.0m earnings, higher
20

costs, higher DD&A and a gross profit of U$15.725m, all good.
SAND: Operations overview
31.0
29.7
25.8
24.0 23.3
21.5 21.3
17.3 17.5 18.2 18.7
21
5.3 5.6 3.7 1.4 9.6 4.6 4.3 0.8 8.6 9.4
8.01
8.5 0.5
0.01 8.01
0.5 1.9
9.9
2.4 6.8 6.8 8.2 3.8 6.7 1.3 7.7
5.21
9.3 5.8
2.71
4.5
9.9
7.51
U$m
35 total revenues prod costs depletion gross profit
30
25
20
15
10 5
0
3q18 4q18 1q19 2q19 3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21
Source: SAND filings
Both internal and depletion costs taken by SAND imply cost creep in partner companies across
the board, however that non-cash item doesn’t affect the inflow of cash to SAND’s treasury:
SAND: Cash generation capacity
867.31 600.31 731.21 933.11 79.21 386.41
878.81
343.61 160.51 759.31
403.81
223.32 662.32
25
20
15
10
5
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1
$m
source: company data, IKN calcs
As for the production breakdown at SAND, that provides some insight on other company
performances. This chart gives sales breakdown in US Dollar terms of its component streams
and royalties:
U$m SAND: Breakdown of sales and royalty revenues (U$m)
35
32.5 Relief Canyon
30 FDN
27.5 Other
25 Yamana Ag
22.5 Santa Elena
20 Ming
17.5 Karma
15 Houndé
12.5 Diavik
10 Chapada
7.5
BracemacMcLeod
5
Black Fox
2.5
Bach. Lake
0
Aurizona
1q18 2q18 3q18 4q18 1q19 2q19 3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21
source: company filings
This one is a portion of the above dataset, which helps the eye by stripping out the minor lines
and offering “The Big Seven” at SAND:

U$m SAND: Revenues from The Big 7 streams
26
24
22
20 Relief Canyon
18 Yamana Ag
16
Santa Elena
14
12 Karma
10
Houndé
8
6 Chapada
4
Aurizona
2
0
1q18 2q18 3q18 4q18 1q19 2q19 3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21
source: SAND filings
The importance of Yamana’s Cerro Moro silver stream to SAND is now apparent, U$8.6m of the
total for the quarter, as is the Chapada copper stream (ex-AUY) which came in at U$4.6m.
That’s a full U$2m above expectations thanks to the rise and rise in the price of the metal.
Aurizona has continued to ramp correctly for Equinox, however First Majestic’s Santa Elena
continues to underperform. Finally, Americas Gold & Silver (USAS) is not this desk’s idea of a
smart investment at the best of times, there we continue to see Relief Canyon lagging on
payments to SAND compared with the plan.
The bottom line to the SAND quarter: In line. A closer look provides evidence that cost creep is
moving across the sector, but the spike in copper more than makes up for that. However,
before leaving we’d like to draw your attention to the major problem now facing SAND:
120 SAND: Working Capital per qtr 117.0
110
98.0
100
90
78.5 80
70
60 57.0
50.3
50
38.8
40 31.9 29.1
30 23.8 20.4 21.421.7 22.725.624.321.3
20 13.9 10.8
10 1.8 0.3 2.6 6.8
0
22
51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1
source company filings
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They can’t find anything to do with their money The joke would be “It’s got so bad, they are
even letting Nolan Watson buy more Entrée Gold”, but SAND needs either to Do Something
with its rapidly growing cash pile, or consider distributing via dividend.
Wolfden Resources (WLF.v) 2020 YE and 4q20 financials
One of the many TSXV companies to report its annuals last week, we take a page or two to
cover the basics at Wolfden Resources (WLF.v) as it’s now an open position on the ‘Stocks to
Follow’ list, as well as a member of out
Tiny Dogs. However, as backward-looking
WLF.v: Expenses breakdown
financials are not why we are invested in a 2.4
2.2
small Zn exploreco, our job is to provide a 2
concise check-up rather than a deep dive, 1.8
1.6
assuming everything is in order. 1.4
1.2
1
Indeed, the 4q20 numbers were very 0.8
much as expected. Here’s how WLF spent 0.6
0.4
its cash in the quarter, this is a low- 0.2
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4
C$m
other exp
share based pay G&A
Expl & Eval
source: company filings

maintenance company that sips at its treasury while inactive.
The above is the only chart from the P+L suite and enough to give the correct impression of
WLF’s modest quarter, if we move to the balance sheet there’s better insight o the company by
adding in the proceeds of WLF’s recent financing, as well as making a few simple assumptions
on current costs:
WLF.v: Assets
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
With liabilities at negligible levels and shares out now 151.1m, WLF is a clean and known entity
going into the Northern summer news season. That the stock sold off slightly on Friday on the
back of the filing is neither here nor there, Wolfden passes muster as our speculative vehicle for
a near-term zinc trade. Zinc land asset prices can only ignore the moves in zinc spot prices for
so long.
Chart courtesy of Kitco
23
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 tse12q1
$m WLF.v: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
1.2
1.1
fixed 1
other current 0.9 cash 0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
source: company filings
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 tse12q1
source: company filings
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LT liabs
current liabs
10 WLF.v: Working Capital per qtr
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 tse12q1
source company filings/IKN ests
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WLF.v: Shares Out 200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 tse12q1
source: company filings/IKN ests
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Novo Resources (NVO.to) PEA and financials
“See, men and women of Troy, come and see, look on Hector if,
while he was still alive, you would rejoice when he came back
from war, for he was a great joy to all our city and its people.”
At Cassandra's shout, no man or woman was left unaffected.
Last week saw the long-awaited filing of the PEA for Novo Resources (NVO.to) Beaton Creek
project in Australia, now moving into production and producing its first gold. It’s a long one,
with 180 pages once the credits and glossary are done, but the framework of the project is
summed up in this table from the report:
WE’re not going to dwell on the way NVO has gone from Wits 2.0 to a 6.5 year mine life project
to recover under 700,000 ounces of gold, we’re also going to gloss over the AISC that, around
U$1,000/oz is much higher than those “lowest quartile” dreams that helped this blatant
promotion reach its heights at the time. There’s a lot to say about the PEA, including the
reasonable parameters taken by the third party compiler and their sensitivities assumptions
(right) are fine. Instead, we consider its absolute size, because U$250m simply isn’t enough to
carry a company with nearly double that as its market cap.
Ultimately, NVO’s problem isn’t gold, it’s dollars. For that we need to consider the company’s
latest balance sheet, filed one month ago:
24

There isn’t much to like about that page but to its credit, NVO holds 15m shares of market
hotpot New Found Gold (NFG) and company Chair, President, founder and once-CEO Quinton
Hennigh is now part of the New Found board. As those are now worth over C$100m, the above
$15.091m “Investment in Associate” has C$85m to add as per this weekend and that’s excellent
news for NVO, because they’re going to need the money.
The problems start in the liabilities, expanded in 2020 as NVO moved to build out its project.
That’s normal, a developer raises its capex and part of that is financial debt, but it’s the major
U$35m credit facility that’s of most concern. The max U$60m facility was offered by “Resource
Lending Corp. and Sprott Private Resource Lending II (Collector), LP”, in other words Sprott.
NVO was entitled to a first draw of U$35m and took all of it. The other U$25m would then be
available in stages assuming a pre-feas study were delivered on NVO’s project. What’s notable
about this credit facility is the cost, it’s eye-watering. First NVO paid this for its U$35m:
On September 8, 2020, the Company drew down the initial USD $35,000,000 tranche,
subject to an “original issue discount” of 12.286% of the initial advance, which
represents interest paid in advance, and less transaction costs, for net cash proceeds
of USD $30,509,000 ($39,932,000).
In other words, out the gate they returned nearly U$4.5m to Sprott. Then there’s the service
cost of the loan, as seen in this note from NVO’s annuals:
The effective interest rate on the first tranche is approximately 19% per annum, and
the Company has paid USD $1,006,250 ($1,281,000) of interest payable in cash as at
December 31, 2020. Interest has been expensed as an operating cost through profit
and loss.
Nineteen percent. Those payments are gong to continue too, NVO has $1m to find per quarter
to cover Sprott alone. But that’s not all, as part of the financing included a share sale to Sprott
and we quote:
On September 9, 2020, in conjunction with the Credit Facility, Sprott subscribed for
1,453,624 units (the “Sprott Units”) at a price of $3.25 per Sprott Unit for gross
proceeds of $4,997,000 (approximately USD $3,600,000) (the “Sprott Private
Placement”). Each Sprott Unit is comprised of one Share and one-half of one
25

transferable Share purchase warrant (each a “Sprott Warrant”), with each whole Sprott
Warrant entitling Sprott to acquire one Share at a price of $4.40 until September 9,
2023. The Sprott Units and their underlying securities are subject to a statutory four-
month hold period expiring on January 10, 2021.
Here’s how NVO.to has traded in 2021 YTD. You may believe in coincidences, I do not:
If Sprott clipped their warrants at an average of C$3, that’s another C$4.3m back from the
overall deal. Summing up so far, in 3q20 Sprott committed to NVO around U$39m in loan and
placement money. From that, Sprott has already recouped around U$9.5m in share sales, fees
and, thanks to a 19% effective rate, interest payments that will continue to pay Sprott around
U$1m per quarter until loan maturity. You’d surely think that is great business and as a loaner
of money, want more of the same. Therefore it’s strange to see Sprott now getting cold feet
(11):
“…Novo has renegotiated the second tranche of the Facility to total US$15 million
(subject to a lender’s 2% cash discount), inclusive of the US$5 million mentioned
above, available to be drawn until September 30, 2021, at Novo’s discretion. The
remaining US$10 million available under the renegotiated second tranche is subject to
the satisfaction by Novo, or waiver by Sprott, of certain…”
Instead of U$25m, Sprott lent NVO U$5m with another U$10m available assuming certain
milestones are met (i.e. they make money), all that at the same usury terms. We agree that
Sprott had no obligation to go to U$60m unless it was given a pre-feas and NVO delivered a
PEA, so it has valid contractual reasons to step back. However, it’s clear NVO needed the
money and wanted more, so the reticence of the financier that knows this company best is
another red flag. At this point, we also remind readers how NVO management swore to all and
sundry before the ramp into production that it wouldn’t even need to tap the other U$25m
before the mine was profitable, instead it has limped to the end of 1q21. We also know NVO
needed more money, because less than a week after being refused by Sprott, the company
announced this (12):
Novo Announces C$22 Million Private Placement Led by Clarus Securities and Stifel GMP
The C$2.55 units are made up of a share and a half warrant with a $3.00 strike over three
years. I don’t know how many financial red flags you need, I passed my minimum a long time
ago on this stock, including making previous warning on corporate oversight about a company
that has the same non-financial company founder as Chair and President (and for much of its
early years, its CEO).
With a pro-forma 240.7m shares out and this weekend’s C$2.31, NVO is a C$556m market cap
with a lot of potential downside. I’m fully aware of the polemic and controversial nature of this
stock and the story around it, but we’ve seen time and again in this sector how good assets are
ruined by bad managers and NVO is another example of the dangers of letting an exploreco run
by geologists go into debt with financiers. In this case, a 19% interest loan with heavy fees is
the type of loan you take at the last moment, to get the mine up and running and then pay it
down and off. That’s clearly not the situation here, about ten minutes with the PEA shows that
26

grades run through the mill to date cannot possibly be economic and until it’s paid off (the
placement? If so, extremely improvised), this loan will be a welter burden around the neck of
NVO. No matter what your opinion of Beaton’s Creek the project may be, this company has
been hobbled badly by financial decisions and is best avoided, at least until it’s on a stable a
financial footing. By its 1q21 and 2q21 financials we should know whether it runs or fails.
Mene Inc (MENE.v) 4q20 and annual financials (in CAD unless stated)
Our non-mining PM stock, Mene Inc. (MENE.v), also reported its 4q20 and year-end financials
on Friday afternoon. However, unlike most of flotsam and jetsam level companies that wait
until the last day to dump their data MENE reported a strong quarter and looks ready to
become a true profit-making entity as of this year. True to my word, this non-mining stock isn’t
going to take up a lot of space at The IKN
Weekly while MENE is still in its early stages,
we’re still largely monitoring its progress via
a small opening position plus one addition,
with a plan to add slowly from time to time.
But we will spend some time on the annuals
today for the basic financial pointers and to
show the progress made by the company in
2020.
We begin we revenues, which were pre-
announced by CEO Roy Sebag back in
January so came as no surprise.
Then come costs, which at MENE have two major components, COGS (i.e. the raw materials
and costs thereof) and “operating expenses”, which include (breath in) advertising and
promotion, personnel related expenses, professional fees, distribution centre & processing,
stock-based compensation, G&A, forex gain/loss, technology & development costs, other selling
expenses, depreciation and amortization (breathe out):
MENE.v: Costs breakdown
27
868.0 361.1
777.1 725.2 450.2 159.1 465.2
557.3 441.4
125.2
548.3
914.5
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4
MENE: Revenues per qtr
8 7.11
7
6 5.157 5.423
4.654
5
4 3.51 3.218 3.439
2.733 3 2.457
1.986
2 1.039 1.393
1
0
$m
COGS operating exp
source: company filings,IKN ests
As a result of the split, MENE claims a gross profit of $1.691m on the quarter, but we ignore
that and go to the reality hat subtracts both the above:
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4
C$m
source: company filings
1 MENE.v: Operating income, per qtr
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4
C$m
source: company filings

MENE made an operating loss of $0.222m on the quarter, which is more than acceptable. Even
better when one realizes the company stocked in-progress and finished good inventory at the
same time:
MENE: Inventories per qtr
C$m
18 Supplies
Finished Goods
16
Work in Prog
14 Raw Mat.
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
4q18 1q19 2q19 3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20
source: company filings
We’re looking for this to improve costs in the coming quarter, 1q21. Over at the balance sheet,
we can add reasonable estimations for the upcoming 1q21 period, as we take into account the
debt-for-equity payback deal recently announced by the company:
MENE.v: Assets, per qtr
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
28
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 tse12q1
$m cash inventories ST Inv other
source: company filings, IKN ests
By assuming a break even cash flows quarter, the $5m payment and shares settled for the
previously outstanding borrowings (from an early strategic investor, so applause due), cash
drops to a low-looking $5m but that’s not likely to cause a cash crunch. Meanwhile, the benefits
to liabilities are clear:
MENE.v: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
The result is an immediate improvement in company equity (liquidity) and, assuming sales
growth continues its path in 2021, that willbe enough to get to full net profitability without the
need for further rounds of investment. With an IKN calculated current count of 254.63m shares
outstanding and a share price of C$0.55 this weekend, the window is now open for anyone
interested to buy MENE while still valued at C$140m, because once it posts green bottom lines
that market cap is history. Its passage to operational profitability now looks assured and its
recent corporate financial moves are the type made by a company confident of its future.
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 tse12q1
source: company filings/IKN ests
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22 MENE.v: Equity per qtr
20
note payable 18
other liab 16 borrowings
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 tse12q1
source company filings/IKN ests
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As I put it to a fellow small owner of MENE this weekend, with a market cap of U$112m, no
debt to speak of, established online retail sales platform and sales growing on track, when do
you add? When it returns a $1m quarterly net profit? When it gets to C$2m per quarter? What
Price/Earnings level would satisfy you, because a smarter move would be to buy now and let
the inevitable drop in P/E ratios at MENE come to you. Expect me to continue adding
occasionally to this position throughout 2020.
Conclusion
IKN623 is done, we end with bullet points:
 Today’s edition is a long-winded way of saying “Be long copper”, let’s just hope the
message gets through, there’s going to be a lot of money made in this sub-sector.
 A speculative trade on Roxgold (ROXG.to) can pay off in a couple of ways, but the
reason to try this gamble is the likelihood of a third party moving in.
 Peru hasn’t changed in a week, nor will it by next week. It’s been nice to leave the
political machinations and Covid Death stories to one side for an edition.
 I hope I’m wrong about gold, but for the moment will not fight the Fed.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best, Mark
29

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/30/soaring-lumber-prices-add-36000-to-the-cost-of-a-new-home.html
(2) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-30/deepest-backwardation-since-07-shows-world-short-on-
commodities
(3) https://iknnews.com/east-against-west-over-copper/
(4) https://www.reuters.com/article/column-russell-copper-china/column-china-copper-price-flip-to-discount-vs-lme-
raises-red-flag-amid-rally-russell-idUSL1N2MK05A
(5) http://www.shfe.com.cn/en/products/bc/
(6) https://www.lme.com/en-GB/Metals/Non-ferrous/Copper#tabIndex=0
(7) https://iknnews.com/a-good-copper-webinar/
(8) https://www.reuters.com/article/global-metals/metals-copper-climbs-towards-record-as-market-frets-about-supply-
idUSL1N2MK0I4
(9) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-01/peru-leftist-candidate-pledges-to-seize-foreign-company-
profits
(10) https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2021/04/26/2216692/0/en/Fortuna-and-Roxgold-Agree-to-
Business-Combination-Creating-a-Low-Cost-Intermediate-Global-Precious-Metals-Producer.html
(11) https://www.novoresources.com/news-media/news/display/index.php?content_id=450
(12) https://www.novoresources.com/news-media/news/display/index.php?content_id=451
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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