IKN #620Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 620, April 11th 2021
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In today’s edition, Normalization, not inflation.
Fundamental Analysis: A fundamental analysis of Wolfden Resources (WLF.v).
Stocks to Follow: Aurelius Minerals (AUL.v), Mene Inc (MENE.v), Cartier Resources (ECR.v),
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse), Strategic Metals (SMD.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v),
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to).
Copper Basket: Overview, US Copper (USCU.v) is the new name for Crown Mining (CWM.v),
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Kirkland Lake (KL), Pan American Silver (PAAS).
Tiny Dogs: Overview, Manitou Gold (MTU.v).
Regional Politics: Ecuador: Lasso wins (and it wasn’t a surprise), Peru elections: Early
indications of the chaos to come, Mexico: AMLO continues his attacks on mining companies.
Market Watching: Adding to Aurelius Minerals (AUL.v) next week, The 1q21 production watch
list: Two of the eight report.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
“
Trade heads-up
The plan is to buy Wolfden Resources (WLF.v) next week, as well as add a few to the small
starter position in Aurelius (AUL.v) on the back on its continued strong newsflow and cheap
entry price. Heads-up complete.
In today’s edition
 Today’s main event is the NOBS report on Wolfden (WLF.v), which for my taste offer
more of a near-term trade potential than a long-term investment position. Timing is the
key and the zinc market is about to make more noise on supply shortages.
 Up to last week, Aurelius (AUL.v) had been a frustrating little tinycap position, deeply
underwater pricewise but delivering reasonable drill results from its program. Its news
last week finally saw it catch a decent bid and the news was strong too. It may have
turned a corner and I’m adding to this risk/reward tinycap play. That’s in Market
Watching, below.
 Strategic Metals (SMD.v) gets extra space in the Stocks to Follow notes today, it looks
in prime position for a near-term re-rating. One of several potential catalysts would be
enough.
 In Regional Politics, Ecuador is now ungovernable and Peru’s election result is a
nightmare, more reasons to buy North America and not South. In The Producer Basket,
your author joins the legions of KL bashers and in the Copper Basket, we still love
copper and are preparing for the next leg up.
1

Normalization, not inflation
The briefest of intros today, there are better things to write about than the macro every week.
We remind readers that when bonds yields shot up and gold dumped, we opposed the tal of
rampant inflation in the pipeline and the scare-story interpretations, it was the normalization of
the bonds market after its period of Covid-induced depression. Here’s how last weekend’s main
intro note wrapped up:
The IKN Weekly playbook seems on course and, while exact timing of the turn points
is always an issue (another way of saying impossible), if things continue to plan we
should see a consolidation in gold at current levels before the longer-term effects of
Biden’s massive dollar drop take effect. That’s when we start moving toward our
U$2,000/oz target for the year and I won’t mind waiting a few weeks for that.
Another week, we’re still largely on course and what’s more, I may even get the timing wrong.
The gold market had a wholly positive week, with sentiment good even before the buying spark
came along Thursday and pushed it back above U$1,750/oz.
The reason? Well, you never know with gold and others may argue, but last week saw Mr
Market finally made up his mind and decide the Fed is right, there isn’t the type of serious
inflation risk that many are calling (including ironically, the hardcore goldbug world) down the
line. Due to that, the Bonds Vigilantes backed off, yields dropped and bonds were suddenly less
attractive an alternative to gold as they were. Meanwhile and on the other side of the fiscal
equation, with a GOP determined to fight the Biden U$2Tn (with a T) stimulus plan on a battle-
by-battle basis, the novel and less-worse outlook for the US Dollar (USD) brings stability and
guarantees the USD doesn’t go directly to hell in a hand basket (again as goldbugs fully expect;
I agree that owning gold is never a wrong answer, but these guys do seem to want to have
their cake and eat it on the arguments, too). Just because the world’s biggest economy is
waking up again, doesn’t mean it suddenly becomes Venezuela. We continue to expect
consolidation and a relatively stable period for gold, however there’s no problem about that
happening around U$1,750/oz instead of U$1,700/oz. Enough preamble today, there are better
things to write about this week than samo samo US macro.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
A fundamental analysis of Wolfden Resources (WLF.v)
Preamble: Last year, Wolfden Resources (WLF.v) was a member of the Tiny Dogs basket and
over the course of the year, didn’t get much attention from this desk. However, toward the end
of the year in IKN595 there was a short-write-up on the company, which we re-print here:
Wolfden Resources (WLF.v): According to at least one subscriber, I’ve been too slipshod on even
soft coverage of WLF in this sub-sector. On consideration I think he is right and I am wrong so let’s
remedy that at least a little today.
As noted in our soft coverage of last year in IKN595 and 600,the driving force behind WLF are Ron
Little and Don Dudek, two established and successful names in the Canadian economic geology scene.
latest gig and they are two names worth following in the exploreco geology field. Their centre of
attention that I’ve let pass by is the PEA for Pickett Mountain, which came out in September on (and
we quote), “The highest grade undeveloped VMS deposit in America”, those descriptions when
companies feel the need to use a superlative about their asset. For the 10 minute summary, the latest
corporate presentation (5) is dated October 12th and is nice and fresh. The PEA (6) envisages a
machine that runs at 432,000 tonnes per annum (call it 1,200tpd) and as per the company bullet point
highlights at least, it hangs together:
 After-Tax IRR of 37%
 After-Tax NPV8% of US$198 M to Wolfden
 Payback of 2.4 years on 10 year mine life
 AISC of $0.38/lb Zinc
2

 Initial Capex US$148 M including 20% Contingency and $13 M in Closure Costs
 Small Footprint with Net Zero discharge to the water table
 Creates +100 jobs and over US$400 M in estimated revenues to the State
 Very supportive local communities
The bullets are written with rose-tinted specs on, but that’s normal. For example, the initial capex is
$147.4m and there is no need to suggest the contingency may not be used or to imply they “don’t
need the money” for the $13m in closure costs. On the same subject, they do not mention the $70m+
in sustaining capex on a 10 year project and when a short-ish mine life project has sustaining capital
at nearly 50% of the capex, the chances that this PEA has been optimized are higher. And yes, we
need to consider this is a PEA and the economics of this project will never be better than they are in
this document.
WLF today has a market cap of C$26m and that’s the right price for a speculation on zinc price, and
that’s what this company is today. We know zinc juniors spend 95% of their time out of fashion and
5% in it, TK is this publication’s hard lesson on that. However, after spending time on WLF this week I
will admit, it’s a more attractive proposition than Tinka at the moment. I have seen worse than this
company.
On that weekend of IKN595, WLF was a 20c stock and with 129.5m shares out, running a
market cap of just under C$26m. Here’s the situation this weekend, via our standard corporate
structure Top Box:
Shares out: 151.1m
Options: 8.4m
Warrants: 16.5m
Fully diluted shares: 194.5m
Current share price: C$0.28
Market Cap: C$42.3m
Approx cash per S/O: 4.5c
All prices are in Canadian States Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.80=CAD$1
Overview: Last year, WLF did not appeal as an investment and it was watching-brief only.
That has now changed, as markets tend to and WLF offers three strategic advantages:
 Right country: Political risk matters and not only is The USA one of the best political
risks for mining in the world, it is beginning a quest to supply itself and become less
dependent on China.
 Right time: Signals from the zinc market in China are of sudden supply tightness. Zinc
simply isn’t a sexy metal and Zn juniors aren’t an easy sell normally, but every so often
the sub-sector gets fashionable and there’s a window coming up.
 Right company: Backed by two major players and plenty of peer-approved brains on
the board, the fully-cashed-up Wolfden will not lack in coverage as the Northern
summer rolls out.
The contention of this desk is that, with zinc looking bullish and WLF about to move into action
for its 2021 season, it has the combination
that can push the stock higher on speculative
momentum. Now to consider the moving parts
of the trade set-up:
Think Zinc: The news last week that big zinc
supplier Teck had negotiated a 46% drop in
TC/RC prices for its Red Dog concentrate with
main customer Korean Zinc sent ripples
through the market. As usual, all parties were
tight-lipped when approached for official
comment by reporters, but bizwire
3

Fastmarkets scooped that Teck had dropped TC/RC from U$300/tonne to U$159/tonne (1) (2).
The implication is clear, smelters that have so long had whip hand in negotiations with miners
are now paying up to cover thin supply. This is the necessary backdrop for a run in spot and
futures prices for Zn and as the metal has failed on multiple occasions to break U$1.30/lb in
recent months, it needs a new catalyst and may have just found it: tight supply.
So wraps the first part to our buy thesis on WLF today: the zinc macro backdrop is not as easy
to call or as reliable as that of copper (for example), but we may be about to move into one of
its hot periods when the metal becomes fleetingly fashionable. We now move to outline the
attraction WLF has to offer in light of a bullish zinc market.
Company assets
Before focussing on the flagship, we note WLF has other arrows in its quiver this year and
what’s more, it expects them to generate news in 2021. For more than this thumbnail, please
see the website and/or the latest corporate presentation dated April 5th (3), a good place to
start. For our purposes, there are two other assets at the company:
 Big Silver: WLF recently acquired an option to earn up to 100% of this silver/other
metals target in Maine, USA and plans first exploratory drills this summer
 Rice Island/Nickel Island: These are two nickel targets owned by WLF in the Manitoba
region of Canada, the company plans drilling in both this year that may take advantage
of the hot nickel market.
With these, WLF also complies with our desire to hold large land concessions in North America
in 2021. Part of our current investment thesis is how land is ready for a value re-rating that
shows up in junior equity prices and if it does, WLF will also benefit..
Pickett Mountain
As for the flagship asset, that is a zinc/polymetallic deposit also in Maine USA. Deep in the
backwwods of the State, its remote location is accessed by logging tracks only and after several
years of development, currently has this resource count:
Notes:
 This is a polymetallic deposit with the assumption of five payable metals. However, Zinc
is by far the most important of the mix and accounts for over 50% of gross revenues.
This project will live or die on Zn, not on any influence of the by-product metals.
 The current 4.08m tonnes I+I resource total is likely to expand. WLF has already
stepped out and hit mineralization not in the current 43-101 and plans to do more of
the same in its 2021 drill program, starting soon. The company has made no secret of
its assumption there is between 6m and 10m tonnes of total resource sin the identified
lens at Pickett.
 Metals assumptions are reasonable, as are cut-offs. Last year, WLF filed a PEA on
Pickett Mountain (that forms the base of our economic assumptions) and all though the
document, conservative parameters were used instead of the ones some PEA compilers
prefer. Even so, the economics remained robust.
The project passes muster and has been enough to attract and keep Kinross as a strategic
partner, Special K paying twice for shares with the latest turn this year. WLF has cashed up via
4

three separate financing events and as we’re about to see, is ready for action.
Company financials
The overview of the main WLF financials today has two main purposes: Firstly the normal one,
to offer a framework for the company and its trade potential, secondly to show how recent
moves have set WLF up for its 2021 campaign.
We begin with the balance sheet items, and assets that are nearly all cash. In fact fixed assets
aren’t just minimal but tiny, SMD expensing all its work and nary an office building to its name.
WLF.v: Assets
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Liabilities are also tiny, nothing there beyond normal accounting flow and the left scale only just
above $1m. Zero worries. That means treasury is basically working capital, as well as basically
all assets and a fair proxy on the overall book value of SMD. Here are those charts:
That cash position is different, it has been put together via three different raisings and includes
the backing of major JV partner Kinross (KGC).
You have to go back a long way to find WLF
cashed up like this and with the AGM now done
(last week), as from the week ahead the company
will be unfettered by corporate niceties and able
to get on, explore and market itself. Finally, the
share count, which has pressed on in recent
months due to those equity financings.
The only chart from the P+L data of interest is this
one below, which shows how SMD spends its
money. The company keeps a tight rein on
expenditures and most of its efforts are in
exploration and evaluation of properties, as it should be.
5
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 tse02q4 tse12q1
$m WLF.v: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
1.2
1.1
fixed 1
other current 0.9 cash 0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
source: company filings
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 tse02q4 tse12q1
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs
10 WLF.v: Working Capital per qtr
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 tse02q4 tse12q1
source company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
WLF.v: Cash treasury per qtr
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 tse02q4 tse12q1
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
WLF.v: Shares Out 200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 tse02q4 tse12q1
source: company filings/IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim

WLF.v: Expenses breakdown
2.4
2.2
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
6
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3
C$m
other exp
share based pay
G&A
Expl & Eval
source: company filings
And when it comes to the breakdown of those exploration activities, SMD offers the type of
granular information that every company should give. Here’s an example, a table form the 3q20
financials which details how it spent the C$1.013m you see in the above column:
Divided by project and itemed in detail, if only all companies were this transparent.
This year should also bring news on another of WLF’s big price catalysts, as the rezoning permit
track for Pickett Mountains is timetabled to reach decision point soon, in fact a preliminary
decision could come as early as this month. With WLF reporting that local communities are
“very supportive”, water quality is not affected and the small footprint project plans zero net
discharge, the company envisages a straightforward process. This also comes at a time when
The USA may be looking to improve its own strategic primary materials production and wean
itself off Chinese supply (a little), a policy move that would suit WLF.
Valuing WLF
Trying to keep this concise and not write a book. The way forward is via its flagshipship Pickett
Mountain mine, the objective to show the robust economics underscoring the company
financials. We make the following assumptions based on company data and best-guesses to the
conservative side, as always. A list of criteria:
A ten year mine life. WLF states its approx 4m tonne resource has the potential to grow with
exploration to between 6m and 10m tonnes, that on the current located lens only (VMS lenses
often come in groups). That would move our current assumed 10 year mine life out longer
and add value, but that is for somebody else to award.
Total Capex of U$150m, covered by mostly debt financing with some equity sales. It’s very
early in the capex raise process and most likely outcome of all is the mine being developed by
a deeper-pocketed operator, but by going to 200m shares out and assuming debt servicing of
U$20m over the first seven years, we arrive at a logical ballpark scenario.
Grades and recoveries as per the WLF PEA and published data. In the PEA, WLF goes to
lengths to assume conservative economic parameters and we like that a lot, so calculations on
the five payable metals are done as follows:

 Zinc: Mill head grade 8.6%, recovery 88%
 Copper: Mill head grade 1.1%, recovery 77%
 Lead: Mill head grade 3.4%, recovery 77%
 Silver: Mill head grade 79 g/t, recovery 70%
 Gold: mill head grade 0.88 g/t, recovery 77%
Then come a round of assumptions that either adhere to the PEA line or take even more
conservative assumptions
 Mine costs of U$93/tonne, as per the PEA
 Deprecation of $8m per annum. This could alter if, as we suspect, mine life improves
 TC/RC of 20%, we assume a heavy burden on this polymetal produce
 Royalty of 1.35%, as held by Altius
 Corporate tax of 21%
 CAD$1 = U$ 0.80 forex, house standard
 Other minor line items
Finally, we apply four price decks to the mix, based around the price of main product zinc:
 Stress test: We assume Zn U$1.00/lb, Cu U$3.00/lb, Pb U$0.80/lb, Ag
U$15/oz, Au U$1,500/oz
 Base case: We assume Zn U$1.20/lb, Cu U$3.50/lb, Pb U$0.90/lb, Ag
U$20/oz, Au U$1,700/oz
 Upside case: We assume Zn U$1.30/lb, Cu U$4.00/lb, Pb U$1.00/lb, Ag
U$20/oz, Au U$1,800/oz
 Blue sky case: We assume Zn U$1.50/lb, Cu U$4.50/lb, Pb U$1.20/lb, Ag
U$25/oz, Au U$2,000/oz
And after that numbercrunch, this table appears:
WLF.v at Pickett Mt: Annual model revenues by metal type (U$m)
model $1.00/lb Zn $1.20/lb Zn $1.30/lb Zn $1.50/lb Zn
Zn Mlbs 72.1 72.1 72.1 72.1
$/lb. 1.00 1.20 1.30 1.50
Zn revs 72.1 86.5 93.7 108.1
Cu Mlbs 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1
$/lb 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50
Cu revs 24.2 28.2 32.3 36.3
Pb Mlbs 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9
$/lb. 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.20
Pb revs 19.9 22.4 24.9 29.9
Ag Oz 768154 768154 768154 768154
$/oz 15 20 25 30
Ag revs 11.5 15.4 19.2 23.0
Au Oz 9412 9412 9412 9412
$/oz 1500 1700 1800 2000
Ag revs 11.5 15.4 19.2 23.0
Mining revs (U$m) 139.3 167.9 189.3 220.4
TC/RC/Royalty 29.9 35.5 39.4 45.6
Net sales (U$m) 111.9 133.0 147.6 170.6
Source: WLF data, IKN ests
7

The polymetallic nature of Pickett and assumption that all metals are payable mans this is a
more complicated story, but plugging in plenty of conservative parameters and then opting to
use the base case as our preferred model keeps it real. Even after giving 20% of gross to
middlemen, the base case generates U$133m in sales for WLF and this next table shows how
that should work through the P+L:
WLF.v at Pickett Mountain: Income items for model year
At 1,200 tpd thruput $1.00/lb Zn $1.20/lb Zn $1.30/lb Zn $1.50/lb Zn
Sales (U$m) 111.9 133.0 147.6 170.6
Cash COGS 40.2 40.2 40.2 40.2
Depreciation 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
SGA 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3
Op income 57.9 78.7 93.1 115.8
Interest 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
Workers Part. 4.6 6.3 7.4 9.3
Tax 8.3 13.1 16.4 21.6
Net income 25.0 39.3 49.2 64.9
Shares out (m) 200 200 200 200
EPS 0.12 0.20 0.25 0.32
Sust capex -5 -5 -5 -5
FCF/sh 0.14 0.21 0.26 0.34
Source: WLF data, IKN ests
Again, conservative parameters keep it real. Nonetheless, the model provides a operating inome
that covers capex in less than two years and an annual EPS of 20c. When you work a price
target from that, it looks strong:
WLF: Sales and earnings WLF: Target price & valuation data
Zn Price $1.00/lb $1.20/lb $1.30/lb $1.50/lb using four different Zinc basket prices
Sales ($m) 118.9 141.3 156.8 181.3 12-month target $1.08 (on 4x fwd EPS using
Upside to target 285% $1.20/lb Zn case)
EPS 0.149 0.225 0.278 0.361 Mkt cap ($m) $42 Enterprise value $35
Cash flow 0.189 0.265 0.318 0.401 P/sales ($1.00/lb) 0.30 EV/sales ($1.00/lb) 0.25
P/E ($1.00/lb) n/a EV/EBITDA ($1.00/lb) 0.5
P/E ($1.20/lb) 1.2 EV/EBITDA ($1.20/lb) 0.4
P/E ($1.30/lb) 1.0 EV/EBITDA ($1.30/lb) 0.3
cash flow defined simply as EPS + depreciation
The $1.08 highlighted in the chosen target box represents a 285% upside to this weekend’s 28c
and that’s a big difference, though we need to stress that’s based on cash flow of a project that
hasn’t even got its rezoning permit yet. The 4X multiple is a plain guess in other words, but that
fact you could assume a 2X multiple to forward cash flow and still show a near-double from this
weekend’s price is the real story, WLF is cheap no matter how you look at the numbers.
Discusssion and conclusion
There’s plenty of strength in the theoretical economic parameters of WLF at Pickett Mountain,
but that’s not the main reason for the trade decision this weekend because if it were, we’d be
looking long term and trying to get a much of that multi-bagger price target as possible. In fact
that’s not the case, the trade set-up for WLF is near-term:
Zinc the metal is the key, as is the current bullish window and prospects for more price
pressure in the near future over supply concerns. Zinc is fresutrating as an investment medium
but near-term trades can make good percentage wins in short periods of time, as long as the
metal has one of its fashionable periods. If so, getting on board via a stock with the right
8

political and country risk profile and cash to execute on plans is the right mix. I am a buyer of
Wolfden Resources (WLF.v) next week as near to medium-term trade, the set-up envisaged as
three to six months as zinc moves higher and this company brings catalyst news to the market
at the same time. Quiet to date and with its AGM now completed, WLF looks ready to wake up
and with a market cap under $50m, there’s plenty of room to re-rate higher. Wolfden
Resources (WLF.v) will be the 16th open position on the Stocks to Follow list as from next
weekend with no formal price target, but with a view to making an taking a quick profit if
circumstances allow.
Stocks to Follow
A good week to own mining stocks, as broad market interest started to pivot back toward the
gold and defensive stock ownership. The insto moves came as usual via top-down purchases in
ETFS, GDX up a strong 5.18% on the week with its juniors version, GDXJ, up only a little more
(+5.65%). This happens when Tier 1/2 stocks are more attractive than the juniors, when big
money is a net buyer of miners. As always, what matters is the follow-through as, if the rally
continues in the days ahead, we can expect the cash to rotate down through the tiers and
make for gains in our focus sector.
On the subject, our portfolio kept pace with the positive week via eight winners (RIO.v,
CMMC.to, TMQ, NGD, MIN.to, GBR.v, AUL.v, MIRL.cse), five unchanged prices (MAI.v, SMD.v,
ECR.v, TORO.v, MENE.v) and just two stocks that returned a weekly loss (RYR.v, ORE.v). The
biggest moves were all to the upside and the best was Aurelius (AUL.v up 44.4%) as that stock
finally garnered some market traction. That strong display got portfolio backing from New Gold
(NGD up 10.4%), Top Pick Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v up 9.5%) and Copper Mountain (CMMC.to up
8.6%). Notably and unlike previous winning weeks, precious metals stocks and copper stocks
gained ground at the same time.
We currently have 15 open positions on the Stock to Follow list, our self-imposed maximum.
Eight of our stocks are in the green and of those, four are 100%+ up and that’s not bad. Then
one is unchanged since inception and six are in the red, that’s not good.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.65 209.5% New $1.14 tgt Aug'20 #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.81 -2.4% $1.58 tgt, bot again Nov'20
Recommended stocks (In order of preference)
Copper Mountain CMMC.to STR BUY C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$3.30 135.7% Added Dec'20, trade for FY21
Trilogy Metals TMQ STR BUY U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$2.27 23.4% Added Dec'20, Cu for 2021
Strategic Metals SMD.v STR BUY C$0.40 31-Jan-21 C$0.45 12.5% Asset $ trade, proj generator
New Gold NGD STR BUY U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$1.80 136.8% 3q20 tgt $2.80
Excelsior Mining MIN.to STR BUY C$0.98 10-Mar-19 C$0.78 -20.4% Delayed, but still great value
Royal Road Min. RYR.v BUY C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.38 145.2% Model paying off in Nica
Great Bear Res GBR.v BUY C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$16.16 2.1% Binary M&A trade, wait for print
Cartier Resources ECR.v BUY C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.32 0.0% Binary M&A trade, wait for print
Orezone ORE.v BUY C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$0.95 20.3% Binary M&A trade, wait for print
Aurelius Res AUL.v spec buy C$0.075 28-Jun-20 C$0.065 -13.3% Drillbit good, mkt bad. Spec buy
Pucara Gold TORO.v hold C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.28 -56.9% Strike One, has Pasaska
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.145 -25.6% CEO change will move stock
Long-term non-mining hold
9

Mene Inc. MENE.v LT Hold C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.55 -12.7% LT bet on jockey&horse,will add
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Mining NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
2015 to 2020 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on moves in a selection of covered stocks over the shortened trading week:
Aurelius Minerals (AUL.v): ADDING. A quick line to make sure it’s clear, I’m adding to my
small AUL trade next week and making it slightly less small. Please see ‘Market Watching’ for
the main note.
Mene Inc (MENE.v): ADDED. It came to the point where I’d have felt a hypocrite if I didn’t
add aa small slice, what with two other purchases now planned for the week to come. As pre-
warned, the plan is to steadily add to this position at value prices and build it long-term,
without crimping the style of the true focus here at The IKN Weekly. The cost average dropped
a little, with luck the next time I add the same will happen.
MENE like many TSXV stocks is set to announce its annuals in days to come, and on the back of
those we soon get the 1q21 sales and then financial numbers, which will provide big clues to
how close the model is to breakeven. When those 1q21 financials show, we should also see the
corporate structural benefits of the recent deals, with liabilities dropping on the balance sheet
and apparently, cash flow from operations paying for
Cartier Resources (ECR.v): This position is UNCH since opening four weeks ago (IKN616
dated March 21st), despite it opening before ECR’s announcement of an updated resource count
for Chimo, extensive public promotion of the stock by its CEO on all the usual webi-channels,
paid-for coverage in the Vancouver and Toronto newsletter and marketing community, and of
course an improved gold price and a real-deal rally in GDX. Last weekend I made the point that
something is wrong here, the combo of pushy 43-101 and pushy promo does not sit well with a
company trying to sell itself on its real-deal credentials and how the majors take them seriously.
This weekend I underscore it because, after an e-mail exchange with CEO Cloutier, this desk
learns ECR has been paying for this its erroneous corporate marketing. In other words, the way
they want to please everyone and isn’t an internal board decision from geologists who might be
forgiven for not knowing better, this is advice they pay for from outside consultants and third
parties. Ironic to recall how pernickety CEO Cloutier is about drilling costs and getting all the
bang-per-buck he can out of an expensive underground exploration program, but happily
flushes G&A money down the toilet and does so on a regular basis.
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): Here are all the trades in the CSE listing MIRL last week:
10

There were two prices all week, you got to sell at 13c if you desired and you got to buy at
14.5c if you desired, as the last trade was a 72k purchase (which has a whiff of an insider
purchase about it) that’s where we are today. In other words, all momentum has gone. As for
fundies news, we got the March 2021 monthly report from the company (4) and the news from
Corihuarmi was solid, a good month of production and sales. Here’s contained ounces and
monthly shipments, which made a 24 month high of 2,744oz after the lag of February.
MIRL: 2019/20 Corihuarmi gold prod & shipments, per month
11
9681 7051 3751 7902 7322 0731 6291 6662 3281 7412 0091 9581 4181 5261 6571 1602 4931 5641 5122 3102 9141 3122 0342 9871 3312
899
4472
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500 1000
500
0
91naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 02naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 12naj bef ram
Oz Au
contained oz
shipments
source: CSE
That catch-up on the quarter means this for sales:
IRL: Corihuarmi quarterly sales
2225 2165 7895 1326 9494 4075 5146 6095 5915 0294 7465 1386 5785
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000 3000
2000
1000
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1
Oz Au
source: IRL filings
Once we do a bit of math on the average gold price for each of those months, it brings this:
IRL: Revenues per qtr
239.6 612.7 331.7 856.7 924.6 833.7 133.9 656.8 782.8
10.5
562.8
566.01
568.11
14
12
10
8
6 4
2
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 tse12q1
$m
source: company filings
We expect MIRL to report top line revenues of U$10.5m for 1q21 and if cost items remain in-
line with expectations, that indicates an operating
profit of around U$2.8m for the quarter (right). More
Minera IRL: Operating Income
than enough to cover G&A, not enough to pay off its
debt. As you were at MIRL, we await the only piece
of news that will truly move the stock.
The problem today is of inertia, as seen in the traded
volume and as seen in the way MIRL is burying its
head in the sand and denying the obvious. I suppose
in CEO Benavides’ perfect world, he gets to sail to
13.1
05.0
72.1
59.0 88.0
66.3
08.2
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 tse12q1
U$m
source: company filings

the end of this year then hand over the reins to some or other new team. Far better for we the
shareholders is to fire him now and save nine months of his salary, Corihuarmi will get on well
without him and we repeat, there is zero chance of Ollachea moving forward in any meaningful
way until the welter burden of his incompetent and deceitful leadership is removed. Tognetti
may have his own agenda too, with Haywood now in charge they could decide to screw existing
shareholders into the ground in this corporate refi and, the longer it takes for MIRL to announce
the departure of Diego Benavides as CEO, the more likely that we get hosed by a dilutive plan
that greatly favours newcomers. Playing dumb and pretending business as usual merely adds to
growing suspicions current holders are going to get the short end of the stick, therefore selling
before that happens would be the logical step. This company promised transparency last year,
time to make good and tell us the real story because fantasy world is over, once and for all.
Strategic Metals (SMD.v): On opening this position a few weeks ago, one of the repeated
points made in subscriber mail comments was how highly Doug Eaton and the “SMD Family”*
regarded the project held by Rokmaster (RKR.v) at Revel Ridge. Since then we’ve had plenty of
news out of RKR on Revel Ridge that hasn’t parlayed into market traction to date, but there’s
still a lot to like. Here’s the RKR 12 month chart, which shows the sideways motion of RKR since
we got on board, its price range tight between 45c and 50c:
You could go straight for RKR as your trade, of course, as if Revel Ridge delivers your risk
capital is undiluted and will multiply further. However, SMD’s 33.5% of RKR shares gives us
plenty of exposure if it moves through the gears and becomes a live mine prospect (as SMD
CEO Eaton swears blind will happen to anyone who cares to listen, his too has conviction-level
confidence about RKR). Which brings us to a quantification of its third party shareholdings, the
first reason to like SMF today. We’ve run this table before, it is updated accordingly today:
Equity positions and cash held by SMD
Ticker S/O PPS Mkt cap SMD % SMD NAV
RK.v 208.036 0.47 97.78 33.5% 32.76
GGL.v 44.946 0.185 8.32 38.9% 3.23
TUF.v 137.5 0.125 17.19 19.9% 3.83
PRG.v 106.241 0.18 19.12 19.2% 3.67
SNG.v 81.98 0.19 15.58 18.7% 2.91
ATC.v 162.384 0.175 28.42 8.5% 2.42
TG.v 57.887 0.105 6.08 2.6% 0.16
subtotal 48.98
Terra 4.2
Treasury 8.5
Total C$m 61.68
As at this weekend, just its shares in the seven listed public companies are worth C$49m. Add
to that the IKN estimated treasury this weekend (C$8.5m…with which the company could easily
make another strategic incursion) and our estimate on the value of its holding in Terra, the
company developing its “environmentally-friendly, cost-effective alternative to Portland cement”
(and not a pipe-dream, it has attracted development funding).
12

At your preference, please choose either sub-total or total in the above chart and compare it to
SMD.v’s market cap this weekend, of C$50.07m. For that market cap you also get SMD
extensive, wholly-owned concession and exploration holdings, its own exploration on its
preferred target, the brains trust and no debt to speak of. We note RKR is currently over 50%
of the asset value of its strategic partner and that is a risk, but the reason to own such seeder
companies is to have plenty of irons in the fire and the move RKR enjoyed in 2020 on drill
discovery could repeat at any moment for PRG, TUF etc.
SMD comes the spring of 2021 cashed up, that’s a very different corporate beast to the last few
years. As well as being a successful example of the well-established ‘project generator’ model,
this desk likes the twist SMD brings to deals with partners and the way it takes substantial
strategic investor positions in its JV partner companies, instead of the more classic staged
payment method. We now get leverage to exploration success, as seen in RKR and with fortune
and the Rock Gods on our, in some of the other companies in that list above, too. All this
notwithstanding the potential SMD has to return unalloyed success from its wholly-owned
properties and its own exploration campaigns this year.
As for trading, SMD looked for all the world as though it was breaking out last week and
moving up to better reflect its soft NAV, but
profit-takers later in the week pushed it back
down and the stock was UNCH on the week.
So be it, but the Value Investor I am at heart
is banging on the table about SMD’s
comparative undervalue to peers. A lot to
like and plenty of backbone to the share
price at current levels.
We like SMD and the way it does business,
but the reason to own the stock this time
around is to enjoy the equity price rise we
anticipate when Canadian mining land gets
its long-overdue re-rating in value. Re-rates
tend to happen in a rush, so I won’t have
any problem at all in selling and taking quick 50%+ gains if offered by the market, even as
good a company as SMD can be a trade based on current circumstances.
*The satellites are peer geologists, CEOs and company officers at their assorted explorecos, who revolve around the
Sun of Doug Eaton. Mostly up in The GWN, but with SNG and PRG they reach South.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): CEO Ramshaw underscored his conviction in his own company by
buying more shares on the open market last week, impeccable ongoing alignment with the
owners the company.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): I met RIO.v CEO Alex Black for a coffee for an hour along the way last
week, we chatted on matters other than mining (mostly the Peru election, also the sudden and
unexpected passing of a mutual acquaintance). However, I got a few seconds’ worth of
information about his company out of him, hence this note. He didn’t give away any details
because he never does, but said my “Omm” comment at the end of last week’s note on RIO.v
was correct. He is pleased with the progress of the financing and as soon as legal requirements
allow, the company will update and announce on the package. Nothing new there, what’s new
is to understand that even at this late stage of the process (and he was at pains to stress
there’s no type of setback and the process is on-track) there are different ways in which the
totality of the capex package can happen. The company has baked in the potential to choose
and trade-off from a couple of methods to raise the money, which means that while there’s no
delays expected, there are options to consider and the board gets to make preferences on the
final mix of the package.
13

On re-reading that last sentence, it sounds cryptic and it’s not meant to be, but instead of
changing it let’s underscore the basics as I understand them: RIO.v is fully confident of raising
all the capex cash it requires for Fenix. From the outside looking in, all parties are in agreement
and we’re at legal-beagle stage. It might take a few more days, it’s going to happen and we will
get word from the company as soon as their lawyers are down with the idea. What’s more, the
strong impression I got from our on-topic interlude over coffee is a company now choosing
from a “good” or “better” financing package, with the good one finalized and now trying to
improve it with an extra component. Whatever, CEO Black was relaxed and confident on the
subject for sure and far more concerned about the outcome of today’s election in Peru than
anything from Chile or Toronto. Bet you a dollar he’s glad he didn’t set up mine development
shop in Peru for this cycle.
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to): We segue to The Copper Basket by featuring our main copper
trade here. Late week and in good order, CMMC closed its refi as expected and on terms (5). As
noted last week, this deal allows both cash flow for CMMC’s generation projects this year (and
next), as well as decent balance sheet relief. What’s more, service burden drops to an IKN-
assumed C$6.3m per quarter, lightening the load on the quarterly bottom line to boot. With no
instalment payments announced in its NRs, we assume CMMC has booted principle to April
2026 and therefore, its financial burden looks very different. From this…
CMMC: Under previous loan agreement (C$m)
year loan principal paid loan interest paid total
2015 8.406 11.684 20.09
2016 17.416 17.337 34.753
2017 37.361 12.521 49.882
2018 44.074 12.122 56.196
2019 49.344 13.687 63.031
2020 56.299 9.902 66.201
2021 79.6 8 87.6
2022 95 7 102
2023 41 3 44
…to this.
CMMC: Under new loan agreement (C$m)
year loan principal paid loan interest paid total
2015 8.406 11.684 20.09
2016 17.416 17.337 34.753
2017 37.361 12.521 49.882
2018 44.074 12.122 56.196
2019 49.344 13.687 63.031
2020 56.299 9.902 66.201
2021 0 22 22
2022 0 22 22
2023 0 22 22
No prizes for guessing that I want you to focus on the red bold-typed numbers. There’s no such
thing as a free lunch and the bill comes in 2026 of course, CMMC has to be in the position to
either repay its obligation or to be in good credit state to refi on competitive terms. However,
this well-executed refi is a classic move to boot obligations forward and frees up a lot of capital
at CMMC.
The final though on CMMC today is separate and
comes from a conversation with a fellow
shareholder in the week: Be clear I really like this
stock, but also that if and when it dings the target
I’m likely to take at least some profits. We bought
the company just as the perfect storm for copper
was taking hold, there’s still plenty of upside left
but at some point I will be happy to offer that to
the next person. A trade is a trade, after all.
14

The Copper Basket
After fourteen weeks of 2021, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 21.32% to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.08 104.67 946.22 9.04 48.7%
2 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 1.81 207.5 684.75 3.30 82.3%
3 Oroco Res OCO.v 1.85 185.11 372.07 2.01 8.6%
4 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.25 64.358 289.61 4.50 38.5%
5 Western Copper WRN.to 1.57 135.6 214.25 1.58 0.6%
6 Excelsior Min. MIN.to 1.12 273.585 213.40 0.78 -30.4%
7 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.80 180.77 171.73 0.95 18.8%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.07 101.85 99.81 0.98 -8.4%
9 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.115 375.17 63.78 0.17 47.8%
10 Chakana Cop PERU.v 0.60 117.2 60.94 0.52 -13.3%
11 Doré Copper DCMC.v 1.00 40.938 47.90 1.17 17.0%
12 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.455 93.64 46.82 0.50 9.9%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.45 66.7 29.01 0.435 -3.3%
14 US Copper USCU.v 0.105 87.53 18.38 0.21 100.0%
15 Chibougamau CBG.v 0.165 46.695 7.94 0.17 -3.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 21.32%
In a change to recent programming, both The Copper Basket 2021, weekly evolution
precious metals and base metals stocks rose 35%
last week and the industrials were led by 30%
copper. The metal up sharply, the miners 25%
followed suit and our list didn’t miss out on 20%
the fun. Of our 15, nine made week-ovr- 15%
week gains (CMMC.to, OCO.v, MIN.to, 10%
MARI.to, ARG.to, ALDE.v, DCMC.v, ECU.v, 5%
CBG.v) including the biggest wins in Doré
0%
Copper DCMC.v up 17.0%) and Copper
Mountain (CMMC.to up 8.6% and yay to
that). To the downside, five stocks were
losers on the week (SLS.to, WRN.to, REG.v, PERU.v, CWM.v/USCU.v) and one other remained
unchanged (CCCM.v).
The buoyancy was all about copper:
An odd moment this time last weekend, when your author published on the new and
unwelcome Chilean Covid-19 lockdown but noted that it wouldn’t affect the logistics of copper
supply much. Minutes later, copper overnight began trading and shot higher, precisely because
15
ts1
naJ
ht01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11
source: IKN calcs

the market assumed a supply crimp (and I found myself fielding mails at 6am the next
morning). Sure enough, the fact London and its wiser heads was closed for its Easter Bank
Holiday didn’t help the overly bullish Asian sentiment, but once the world had turned to the USA
open the market realized it had overreacted to the news (6). Which left the rest of the week, in
which copper traded nicely between those two imaginary lines, U$4.00/lb to the downside and
U$9,000/t (approx U$4.08/lb) to the upside. The range was tight and speculative bets have
diminished on copper since its big run (SHFE said if copper futures trading is down 30% month-
over-month), but the price deck is holding easily enough.
We move to our regular weekly copper inventories section and that thumping sound you hear in
the background is my fist as it thumps this solid wooden table:
 Another rise in copper inventories levels, the total of the world’s three official systems
rising 16,018 metric tonnes (mt) last week to finish at 420,342mt. The song remains
the same, considering where we are in the copper stock cycle the implications aren’t
just bullish, but scarily so..
 Last week I noted the SHFE was closed, which was a factual error (Cochilco got its
wires mixed up and I didn’t check their numbers), so in fact after rising 10k or so last
week SHFE stocks dropped back by 4,060mt this week to close Friday at 193,568mt.
That means 1) the peak of this year’s re-stock is indeed under the 200k line and 2)
we’re in for a lot of fun in May. See the dedicated SHFE chart below for notes and a
few more thoughts.
 At the LME, the inventory re-stock continues as if on rails, adding another 19,235mt on
the week and reaching a total of 163,100mt. Don’t be fooled by comparing it to the
near-drought of 4q20, it bears repeating a hundred times that anything under 200kmt
on the LME is a tight stock situation.
 Comex stocks did another small move, adding 753mt and closing the week at
63,674mt.
Here is the Shanghai-only inventories chart and, unless something very unusual happens in the
next week or two maximum, we can assume the inventory peak level is in for the year and is
about to drop off in time-honoured style:
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
16
31'13ceD ht9 ht81 ht72 ht5tco ht41 dn22 5102
dr3yam
ht21 ht02 ht92 ht7bef ht71 ht62 ht4peS ht31 ht92 ht9 ht81 ht72 7102
ht5von
ht41 ht52 ht01 ht91 ht82 9102
ht6naJ
ht71 ht62 ht4gua ht31 dn22 0202ts1ram ht01 ht91 ht72 0202ht6ced ht41
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
Woe on the world if I have to read another “industry expert” quoted by the bizwires view a
bearish future on copper based solely on the fact that LME stock levels have improved. For a
start, LME warehouse levels are all about what’s going on in Europe and that’s reflecting the
latest data out of Eurozone. On Friday, German the Industrial Activity reading dropped by a
weaker than expected 1.6%, France’s industrial production off 4.7$ month-over-month as well,
with Covid-19 restrictions at the heart of the matter. It’s no big surprise to see copper stack at
ports under such circumstances, but the forest for the trees, please! Europe uses copper, China
devours it and the way global metals market reports on copper fixate on LME while ignoring

Shanghai SHFE warehouse inventory levels often invalidates their argument. There’s no way the
ongoing ignorance at bizdesks about copper’s true price drivers is mere accident, however.
With that in mind, here’s the house prediction: We are sitting in the middle of April, come the
end of May, with SHFE dropping like a stone, its inventory levels will finally make a few column
inches as the previously bearish market maevens try to explain the price run in copper. We are
seeing a market-moving dynamic prepare itself in real-time, the sharp drop in SHFE inventories
as from May is inevitable and will grab sector headlines. When it happens, spare a thought for
IKNB620 and remember how it began, under the cover of bearish blather from experts. Now for
notes on a couple of our basket companies.
US Copper (USCU.v) is the new name for Crown Mining (CWM.v): As a follow-up to last
week’s opening salvo on CWM.v, last week and to my own surprise (7) the name-change was
expedited and Crown is now US Copper. Here’s the info:
“…that it has completed the change of its name to US Copper Corp. The name change
will take effect when stock markets open to trade on April 8, 2021. The common shares
will trade on the TSX Venture Exchange under the new ticker symbol “USCU”. The
new CUSIP for the Company's common shares is 91735Y107.
“Accordingly, on April 8, 2021, our internet domain name will change to
www.uscoppercorp.com. Visitors to our current website address, and communication
to our current electronic mail addresses, will be redirected to our new site.”
So now you know.
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v): The advantage of having big sponsors comes at moments
like this. ALDE is raising $5m via the sale of 11,111,111 units at 45c apiece, with one unit =
share + ½ warrant with a 70c strike (8).nHowever, most of that is already covered because
ALDE’s (and we quote) “…two largest shareholders, Route One Investment Company LLC
(“ROIC”) and Sibanye Stillwater Limited. (“Sibanye-Stillwater”), have each indicated that they
intend to exercise their rights under their
respective Investment Agreements with the
Company to subscribe for their pro-rata share
of the Offering, with Sibanye-Stillwater’s
subscription being subject to internal approval
procedures. Route One currently owns
approximately 47.58% of the outstanding
shares of the Company and Sibanye owns
approximately 19.90%. Management of the
Company has indicated that they intend to
participate in the Offering as well.” As
management and insiders cover just under
6% of current shares out, if they take a pro-
rata position as well, ALDE has 73% of the
financing covered before the book even opens. Proceeds from the offering will be wasted on
The Basket Case country, unfortunately.
The Producer Basket
After fourteen weeks of 2021, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 5.80% to level stakes.
17

company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out Mkt Cap (U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 59.89 803.36 49.41 61.51 2.7%
2 Barrick GOLD 22.78 1779.04 37.73 21.21 -6.9%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 70.51 242.99 14.77 60.77 -13.8%
4 Kirkland Lake KL 41.27 272.984 10.07 36.88 -10.6%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 7.34 1260 9.34 7.41 1.0%
6 Pan American PAAS 34.71 210.17 7.04 33.52 -3.4%
7 Endeavour Min EDV.to 29.62 246.2 5.69 27.72 -6.4%
8 B2Gold BTG 5.60 1064 5.04 4.74 -15.4%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 8.75 392.73 3.28 8.36 -4.5%
10 Pretium Res PVG 11.48 187.254 2.13 11.40 -0.7%
Prices in U$ except EDV.to (share price in CAD$ and mkt cap in approx USD) Port. avg -5.80%
The rebound week the mining sector required, with the tide moving strongly in our favour and
the Producer Basket average adding over 5½%. We’re still underwater for the year and were
still lagging the GDX benchmark, but in both cases by less than this time last week and that’s
good. As for components, all ten stocks were winners and in the style of a healthy market, the
leverage came from the lower end of the market cap range. Best performers were Kinross (KGC
up 8.5%), B2Gold (BTG up 8.2%), Pretium (PVG up 8.0%), Pan American (PAAS up 8.0%) and
Endeavour (EDV.to up 7.5%), that’s a fast rising tide for the Tier 2 and midcaps.
The 2021 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and 4%
comparative to GDX control
0%
-4%
-8%
-12%
-16%
-20%
Have a second look at the tracking chart to the left, as both lines now have the “coming up for
air” dynamic required for the moment, the false start for gold in February and March as the
world got used to the Biden Presidency. We’re through the honeymoon, the realization is upon
us that This Time Is Not Different and a free-spending Dem administration, be it justified or not
by real-world economic circumstances, is going to open the sluices to the satisfaction of the
Doves. There’s going to be plenty of space for the Hawks to oppose the deliberate weakening
of the USD as policy and, with Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen both preaching from the same
Go-Big-Or-Go-Home stimulus playbook, we begin the Fed’s balancing act as it tried to feed the
world just enough dollars to keep deflation away and inflation’s worst influences from getting
out the bottle. So the world turns.
Kirkland Lake Gold (KL): KL announced its 1q21 production numbers and I’m paying more
attention to this key quarter’s figures at KL, not least because Luis over at High Grade (9) (now
up to 18.5k followers on Twitter I note, good for him), someone who called this stock way
better than this desk during its explosive growth phase, is reportedly back long the stock (along
with his other main position Minera Alamos (MAI.v), about which you’ll get no argument at all
from these pages).
18
ts1
naJ
ht01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11
The 2021 Producer Basket: Percentage difference between
GDX benchmark and basket (negative = IKN basket ahead)
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
basket 1.5%
gdx control
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
source: Google, IKN Calcs
ts1
naJ
ht01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11
source: IKN calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq/TSX data

Kirkland Lake (KL): Production breakdown by mine, per qtr
19
00073 60444 38064 96077 53516 75197 34836 26477 81609 703421 544821 107041 723851
398191
55519
468951
299131
601551
760041
984161
341351
800461
137641
976801
Oz Au
400000
375000
350000 Other 52283
325000 Holt/Taylor 38028
300000 Macassa 41865
275000 50861 47437
Detour Lake
250000 Fosterville
225000 56379
200000
62945
175000
69936 72776 49196
150000
125000 55582
100000 45699 48206 51608 54038 60571 75000 52318 48723 50000 42900
25000
0
3q16 4q16 1q17 2q17 3q17 4q17 1q18 2q18 3q18 4q18 1q19 2q19 3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21
source: company filings
The 300k and bits returned as headline production number at KL was in-line, even though the
company tried to frame it as a significant beat on their own internal plans (to 290k this
quarter). However, the reason for the visual above is not to look forward to the 2021 guidance
but to look back, as the development of KL production numbers now makes clear how pressing
the purchase of Detour Gold was to the company. The five year price chart of KL also
demonstrates (if there were any doubt) that Fosterville has been the major price driver, it’s no
coincidence that U$50 was first touched in 3q19 when the flagship asset’s production growth
seemed unstoppable.
There’s also no hiding the fact that KL’s exploration and development programs at Fosterville
came up short in 2019 and 2020, you need only look at the reserve statement and the
Fosterville P+P reserve grade evolution:
 End 2018: 31.0 g/t Au
 End 2019: 21.8 g/t Au
 End 2020: 15.4 g/t Au
KL this quarter reports that the plan to transition Fosterville to a higher tonnage lower grade
operation in order to preserve mine life is underway as planned. But strip the spin away from its
messaging, as they make it sound like an advantage when in fact it’s a second-choice option
forced on the company because they have failed to find more high grade at depth. KL at U$40-
or-abouts makes very little appeal at the moment, the margins and cash flow will support the
company, but the upside is no longer organic. If I were Makuch, I would use 2021 to collect
cash and build a war chest but for trading purposes, it’s easy to pass o KL this year. Everything
about the company screams “transition year” and they do not suppose share price out-
performance to peers. KL will be fine, but a dozen more attractive companies with better
potential upside come to mind and on this occasion, while thoroughly agreeing on his MAI.v
pick, I’m going to oppose Luis High Grade. KL is a market perform, no more no less, it was
probably an error to return it to the list in 2021.

Pan American Silver (PAAS): An interesting little snippet form your author’s local news (10).
Due to mainly to its retention of La Arena and Shahuindo after buying Tahoe Resources (ex-
TAHO) instead of disbursing the gold assets from the purchase, plus the continued depletion of
what was once LatAm’s biggest gold mine, Newmont’s Yanacocha, PAAS has been Peru’s
biggest gold miner in 2021 to date (and let us be clear, that is not gold equivalent adding in
silver ounces, that is straight gold and no other metal). In January and February of 2021, PAAS
has covered 9.5% of Peru’s total gold production with Yanacocha in second place at 8.8%.
The Tiny Dogs
After fourteen weeks of 2021, the Tiny Dogs show a gain of 12.75% to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Antler Gold ANTL.v 0.205 61.348 12.58 0.205 0.0%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.045 163.975 8.20 0.05 11.1%
Constantine Met CEM.v 0.17 45.4 11.80 0.26 64.7%
Contact Gold C.v 0.115 240.757 25.28 0.105 -13.0%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.22 40 6.60 0.165 -20.5%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.045 230.79 18.46 0.08 77.8%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.240 106.241 19.12 0.18 -25.0%
QC Copper QCCU.v 0.315 105 20.48 0.195 -42.9%
Red Pine Expl RPX.v 0.400 95.341 69.60 0.73 85.0%
Warrior Gold WAR.v 0.090 91.818 8.26 0.09 0.0%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 12.75%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020.
This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, Tiny Dogs, 2021 weekly tracker
20%
as we want news and potential catalysts from
18%
companies with projects that can work. 16%
 Decent management if possible. When you are 14%
down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too 12%
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have 10%
teams or people with good peer reputations. 8%
6%
Sometimes, the signal offered by a dataset is a 4%
2%
non-signal and The Tiny Dogs are an example 0%
this week, with four UNCH stocks, just two risers,
four droppers on the week and a basket average
which lost just over one percent. Not only that,
but none of our ten made a double figure
percentage move in either direction, a rarity in these small and volatile issues. Best upmove
was QC Copper (QCCU.v up 8.3%), worst downer Constantine (CEM.v down 7.1%).
Manitou Gold (MTU.v): Post-close Friday, news that will be welcomed by MTU holders but
may not move the stock as much as they would like in the week to come:
TORONTO, April 09, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Alamos Gold Inc. (TSX:AGI; NYSE:AGI)
(“Alamos” or the “Company”) today announced the purchase of 15,900,000 common shares (the
“Shares") of Manitou Gold Inc. ("Manitou"), representing approximately 2.5% of the outstanding
20
ts1
naJ
ht01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

common shares of Manitou (the “Transaction”), on a partially diluted basis. The Shares are being
acquired by Alamos by way of share purchase agreement with a third party at a price of C$0.08
per Share.
Prior to the closing of the Transaction, the Company had beneficial ownership of, or control and
direction over 42,311,077 common shares and 4,520,000 warrants of Manitou, or 17.44% of its
issued and outstanding common shares on a partially diluted basis (assuming exercise of the
warrants).
Assuming exercise of the warrants, the Company will have the beneficial ownership of, or control
and direction over 62,731,077 common shares or 19.96% of the issued and outstanding shares of
Manitou, on a partially diluted basis, calculated as of the date of the Transaction. The Company
does not own any other securities of Manitou.
Aside AGI’s ongoing sponsorship of this exploreco, it underscores McCluskey’s interest in this
slice of central-ish Canada: AGI has its own presence in the zone at its Young-Davidson mine
(about 50 miles NE of the town of Wawa, as the crow flies), but it also has strategic
investments in MTU and the newly awoken Red Pine (RPX.v). As for the news Friday, that also
means there is a block seller looking to get out and AGI was wiling to mop up as much as it
could to 19.96%. That means there’s likely more shares to come out and may put a damper on
initial enthusiasm. For sure this news is good at a corporate level, but for the share price it’s
likely a wash because what matters at MTU is hitting a nice wide width of strongly grading gold
with a drill hole, no more no less. Drill it, guys.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It is possible that in the
future I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, but at the moment both my opinion and my wallet are strictly
neutral.
Regional politics
Next week we will catch up with more specific mining related issues up and down the LatAm
region, this weekend we get the two big elections out the way, but leaving room for another
warning on the increasingly problematic President of Mexico.
Ecuador: Lasso wins (and it wasn’t a surprise)
A week is a long time in politics and, if the second round election in Ecuador were important
toward the near-term of Ecuador’s mining industry, you would have had a Flash update during
the week. This time last weekend these pages were sure and confident that the Rafael Correa
dauphin, Andrés Arauz, would consolidate nhis approximate seven point lead in the polls and
become the next President of Ecaudor, but in the same way Peru’s political ground shifted
substantially in the week before its election (see below), poll after poll last week saw growing
rejection for the return of Correa to Ecuador and undecided voters opting for Lasso.
Hence, when the result showed this evening (11) that with 97% of fast counting done,
Guillermo Lasso was 52.5% to Andés Arauz’s 47.5%, nobody was surprised. When push came
to shove, the return of the polemic Rafael Correa to the political centre stage was too much to
stomach for the average Ecuadorian and Arauz could only add 15% to his first round total.
Lasso benefitted from a lower anti-vote tendency, as well as the neutrality of third placed
candidate Yaku Pérez who, once he’d backed off from his re-count demands, has begun to
realize how powerful his position has become in the Ecuador political stage.
As for mining stocks, they shouldn’t move much as regional issues and the question of
governability now affect them more. For example, the outcome of the Cuenca referendum vote
is now sinking in and environmental activists are looking to repeat the process in other regions
of Ecuador. Add that to the long list of problems Lasso inherits in his new job.
Peru elections: Early indications of the chaos to come
Re-capping: In IKN613 dated February 21st, we called “sell Peru” on the back of the
deteriorating political backdrop into the upcoming Presidential elections. Since then we’ve
watched the field morph and morph again and last weekend, in our final preview and while
21

laying the backdrop to today’s vote, our main message about the opinion polls was this:
Opinion polls conclusion: It cannot be stressed enough, this election is impossible to call.
Also last week while wrapping up a “probables and possibles” best guess op-ed and picking
Lescano vs De Soto for round two, we made sure context was understood:
“…be clear, I wouldn’t bat an eyelid if none of those three names make Round
Two, all real forecasts are off until the second round.”
Tonight proves that reticence (and quiet nervousness) in spades so to begin, here’s a
screenshot of the less-accurate exit poll survey:
As the night goes on, those numbers will be replaced by the very accurate and official Fast
Count numbers. [EDIT: Early official numbers ratify Pedro Castillo in first place and make Keiko
Fujimori the likely second placed candidate], but the exit poll results already shape round two
into a Worst Case scenario. Here are some things I got right:
 Above all, it would be impossible to call. Oh my, was that one ever right.
 The continent-wide left shift would show in Peru and a dangerous, anti-mining
candidate may reach the run-off.
 A right wing candidate would join them in the run-off.
 I wouldn’t bat an eyelid if I got the names wrong.
Now for things I got wrong and there were plenty of those, but two matter above all:
 First and foremost, I didn’t give Keiko Fujimori a chance. Instead, she’s in the hunt for
the run-off and as her party traditionally polls well in rural zones, will insist all votes are
counted before a winner is declared. Keiko benefitted primarily from the fractured
nature of polling, then a late shift among the hard right away from two of their
candidates, George Forsyth and Rafael López Aliaga.
 Second, Pedro Castillo got hardly a mention on these pages in the weeks leading up to
the election, but all last week he was the talk of Peru. Late poll after late poll reported
a surge for his candidacy, as quasi-frontrunner Lescano faded and left-wing voters
looked for an alternative to Verónika Mendoza (and while others will shy away from the
subject I’ll tell you straight, Peru once again showed its macho tendency and made its
preference for a male candidate clear). The result is worse than the nightmare scenario
these pages envisaged for Mendoza. Make no mistake, this is seriously bad news for
Peru as an outright Communist has just made it to the run-off for next President. He
makes Verónika Mendoza look centrist, his policies include full nationalization of
22

industries (with particular zeal toward mining companies), salaries of directors and
company managers capped to a multiple of the basic wage and a press that should not
be free, instead a press and media “committed to the education of the people”.
For those requiring background on the candidates and their political stances, this AS-COA
English language explainer on the election (12) gets all the basics right and if you scroll to the
bottom, give a potted biography of each player and to their credit, managed to get in a mention
of Pedro Castillo and mention his late rise in the polls. What we are left with is nothing short of
chaos. To begin, expect the count to go on for days and the results contested from all sides.
Along with a likely lockdown, write Peru off for the month of April and come May, we should
have some resolution on the final run-off pairing for the June 6th vote, plus enough time for the
candidates to campaign. Until then, nobody will know what Peru wants, except that enough of
the country wants extreme left wing politics to take over.
Bottom line: I may have got the names wrong, but the big call was correct and that’s what
matters. IKN613 called Peru a sell, today confirms that call and makes the country untouchable
until we have an idea of who is in the run-off. As Keiko has pockets of support in rural
provincial Peru, not only may she benefit from the original exit polls reading above, but she’s
going to make sure the count goes on for days before any result is called, favourable or
otherwise. Meanwhile, Peru’s rejection of politics has seen an all-time anti-vote and the rise of
Pedro Castillo. The left decided to mount its own protest against its ineffectual political class
and go extreme, the result is an unalloyed Communist in the run-off for next Peru President.
What’s worse, polls suggest the only candidate Castillo might actually beat in round two
is…Keiko Fujimori. The set-up is a nightmare, Peru remains a sell until further notice.
UPDATE: With the fast count results and now official results coming in, it looks likely to be
Keiko Fujimori vs Pedro Castillo in the run-off. It will take days to get a real result, but for the
time being work on the assumption Peru is untouchable as a serious FDI destination.
Mexico: AMLO continues his attacks on mining companies
Last week’s note on Mexico and its President’s new animosity toward the mining industry and
particularly Canadian mining companies in his country made its position clear: AMLO is using
the subject as a piñata and spreading FUD and lies in true hard-line populist style, all for near-
term political gain. If you needed another opinion, this desk once again refers to Gustavo
Álvarez at El Sol de Hermosillo as he is still on the subject in his weekly op-ed. Here’s his note
from four days ago (13), and here’s a translation of how the note ends. Before this, Álvarez
explained why AMLO’s accusation that First Majestic (AG) (FR.to) “doesn’t pay its taxes” is a lie
(indeed, FR pays corp tax in Mexico like any other profit-making company), then went on to
outline the real issue and the outstanding court battle over back taxes for the lay audience. No
need to read it all, what matter comes at the end:
“…it (First Majestic) is simply adhering to the law to defend itself from what it considers
unjust and AMLO knows that, but he has already decided that they are his enemies;
they’re foreign, rich, they are his target and he’ll continue attacking them with his
favourite weapon, the lie, which always works to destroy and never to construct.”
Be clear, Álvarez is pro-mining, toes the Mexican Chamber of Mining (Camimex) line closely and
may even think butter doesn’t melt in the collective mouths of First Majestic executives. That’s
his issue, there’s no need to agree on every aspect of this to fully endorse his most important
point, that in the last few weeks AMLO has changed his stance toward mining and is now
actively bad news for the industry. Caveat emptor.
Market Watching
Adding to Aurelius Minerals (AUL.v) next week
At last, traction on drill results. The Tuesday April 6th NR out of AUL (14) is hardly its first set of
promising results from Aurelius East as they zero in on the saddle system we’ve talked about
23

previously. However, they were undoubtedly better and as the week drew to a close, so interest
in AUL’s NR developed as seen in the price chart:
Quite right too, AUL did indeed deliver its best drill results to date, from which they chose “…2
Metres at 132.4 g/t Gold, Including 1m at 264 g/t Gold and 0.5m at 21 g/t Gold Within Existing
Workings” as their headline. However and to reiterate, the overall concept of multiple saddles
of high grading gold is the concept to understand and the visuals AUL offers in every one of its
NRs help that cause. This time around, the company showed this in the NR (dedicated link for a
big copy here (15), details get a bit lost on these PDFed pages):
Another great, multiple-hit hole. We’ve noted in previous coverage how tricky it is to nail the
hole on the exact sweet spot of each saddle, here are multiple, high-grade saddle hits to
choose from and CEO Mark Ashcroft must be pleased as Punch with the team. However and
aside from the successful hits on several saddles, the other distinct feature of this hole was
highlighted in the title. “Within Existing Workings” and then in bullet point notes “Sample is
from rock directly below the floor of the underground drift” means AUL found something
different. Here’s how CEO Ashcroft put it I his comments:
“The opportunities we continue to see at this project are significant, especially when
you consider we have identified high grade material in the floor of the development drift
24

where Pad 2 was set up”
When positioning your rig at the lowest level of a previously mined underground workings in
order to drill a near-vertical 500m+ hole, no way do you expect to find high grade rock where
people thought they’d mined the mineral out. That makes for some intriguing suppositions, as if
AUL found strongly grading rock that was quite literally sitting under the feet of the previous
operators of this mine, it implies the old guys weren’t the most scientific and thorough group of
miners. Conceptually speaking, the AUL drill and overall project targets at Aurelius East have
always been the deeper layers of the saddle, with the reasonable working theory at AUL that as
the upper layers were mined economically, new standards and technology should make any
levels found deeper at least as economic. With last week’s note, they might get more thorough
themselves and consider potential targets laying closer to the end of the old mine workings.
Who knows, suddenly AUL gets to bulk mine a valuable sample and augment treasury
organically? Or maybe there’s a lot more the old miners left behind, not just some more, but
whatever the upper levels eventually offer it’s all gravy and bonus to the main plan.
The bloated and loose share structure at AUL means it’s not going to be the perfect exploreco
vehicle for speculators, but it’s still a good one and with momentum building and word getting
out about a “high grade saddle system in Canada”, if the dreamers want to dream about
Fosterville II they can do so. Expect an equity financing and considering the sponsors of this
stock, that will inevitably bring more warrants. On the other hand, expect any incremental-type
financing to be popular and fill easily, that keeps the stock on the radar.
But be clear, I’m adding to my position in Aurelius Minerals (AUL.v) next week
despite the potential headwinds. These tiny dogs are never going to be free of all fleas and
at the present time, tailwinds are much stronger than headwinds. First up, AUL has managed to
get some all-important market radar and momentum, second up there’s real news in the
pipeline as well. AUL has no fewer than 14 from Aurelius East and waiting to report, five UG
and nine from surface and without holding anyone to ransom over exact dates in 2021 (the labs
are backed up, period, we must all be patient, period), when asked for a best estimate CEO
Ashcrof said “six to eight weeks for all of them”. That’s fair, and means 2q21 gets more news
from the company. He also mentioned that due to the scattershot way they have been getting
data back (holes out of sequence, etc), once they have these last holes in they’ll be able to get
(and give) a better idea of the big picture,. It’s at that point the market may begin to see that
tonnage can grow in these systems, despite their relatively thin high grading sections.
My timing on this addition may turn out to suck (it often does), but it’s a real-world decision.
Even after next week, it will still be a relatively small holding in comparative terms and with
plenty of width to add further, if required. Upcoming placement (or even placements) may also
stymie near-term momentum but for me and my longer-term outlook, that’s a lesser concern
than for someone on a flipper’s agenda. I’ve done preliminary work on its financials and once
the company reports its 1q21, we’ll pay more attention to those as well. For the time being I’m
keeping this trade small and I reserve the right to change my mind, give up on the idea of
owning a seedling as it turns into a mighty redwood, sell and move on. All the same and
without trying to hype the stock too much, what we got from AUL last week was a big step in
the right direction, not only in terms of results but of recognition, too. That’s why I add today.
PS: As from Friday, the company has a brand new corporate presentation up. Well worth a look
and on this link (16).
The 1q21 production watch list: Two of the eight report
As per IKN619 last weekend, there are eight bellwether companies we’re watching through the
1q21 production season and last week they started giving results, both Sandstorm (SAND) and
Harte Gold (HRT.to) reporting to market. We check those below, but before getting there let’s
note the non-news from others to date:
Fiore Gold (F.v) announced its AGM results last week, clearing the deck for newsflow. Adding to
25

my previously voiced doubts that I may have sold too soon here (IKN619), Fiore Gold traded
impressively last week, up 7.7% with particularly sprightly action coming with volume on
Thursday. F.v should report numbers this week, I’ll be watching. Then Wesdome Gold (WDO.to)
and New Gold typically give out their Q1 numbers in the second or third week of April, that’s
now. The friendly bet at this desk is New Gold (NGD) will out-perform Wesdome (WDO.to) in
the immediate future of 2021, here’s a chart of the last two weeks of comparative trading:
Nothing in it, so far I’m wrong for the right reasons. However, note the more volatile and
occasionally speculative nature of NGD, those 5% price pops that come and go while WDO
continues a steadier route. Friendly bet aside, the real message is of two very buyable gold
producers and my preference for one over the other is a moot point. If you own either or both,
you are in the right place. And a final thought on Pretium (PVG), which used to suffer form a
“leaky boat” problem with production announcements, but that seems to have been fixed and
there’s much less pre-news movement in the stock than before. Enough, let’s do the two with
real numbers:
Sandstorm Gold (SAND): As usual the first of peers to report, its sales number coming April
5th (17). Preliminary sales were of 17,400 oz
gold equivalent (right). That’s a new record, SAND: AuEq sales per qtr
just beating the 3q19 total. With this, SAND has
weathered the production dip caused by Covid-
19 and is back to where it expected to be.
In its short NR, SAND also provided some basic
revenue numbers for 1q21, including sales of
U$31.0m and “production costs” (e.g. the
cheques they write to stream partners) of
U$5.4m. Both those numbers are higher than
previous quarters and if we take a stab at the
DDA number, the gross profit for 1q21 is going
to come in close to the previous 4q20:
26
58641 56441 41341 05141 17041 00461 98271 00161 39331 02901 86021 59751 00471
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000 8000
6000
4000
2000
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1
AuEq Oz
source: company filings
SAND: Operations overview
31.0
29.7
25.8
24.0 23.3
21.5 21.3
17.3 17.5 18.2 18.7
5.3 5.6 3.7 1.4 9.6 4.6 4.3 0.8 8.6 9.4
8.01
8.5 0.5
0.01 8.01
0.5 1.9
9.9
2.4 6.8 6.8 8.2 3.8 6.7 1.3 7.7
5.21
9.3 5.8
2.71
4.5 6.8
0.71
U$m
35 total revenues prod costs depletion gross profit
30
25
20
15
10 5
0
3q18 4q18 1q19 2q19 3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20
Source: SAND filings

Finally, SAND announced its updated share count, 194.5m, and renewed its buyback program
again. As Wall St. seems to like those more than dividend policies these days, that wasn’t a
shock either.
220 SAND: Shares Out
210 NB: please note cut-down Y-axis
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
27
71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 tse12q1
source: company filings/IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim
The bottom line is simple, SAND put in the
quarter expected of it: In-line and the market
took its NR on Monday in its stride. However,
SAND may have impressed more people than I
imagined, as Thursday and Friday saw buyers
arrive and a streamer out-performing the
mining average. That goes against my
working theory this year, overall the fair
verdict is how SAND put in a good Q1.
Harte Gold (HRT.to): Moving on quickly (this is overview stuff, not deep), also reporting last
week was Harte Gold (HRT.to) and as I’ve had a focus on this stock for the past weeks (still not
a buy, though), a segment to close off the data. As noted on the blog in passing last week (18),
production came to 11,76 oz Au. That’s a step in the right direction, but still below the
theoretical quarter HRT says it can deliver in 2021
HRT: Gold oz produced, per qtr
6745 4577 9606 7357 7108
0
8126
53801
67711
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1
Oz Au/qtr
source: company filings
Driving the top line production numbers are the triumvirate of mill throughput, head grade and
recovery. We gloss over the HRT recovery percentage chart, as it’s always runs high at 94%
average and one of the advantages of this gold deposit. Here are the throughput and grade
charts:

At its 2020 YE filings, HRT stated it expected the mill would no longer be a bottleneck to
production and would support the planned 800tpd production rate in 2021. In 1q21 that rate
came in at 716tpd and reportedly improving as the quarter went on. Throughput therefore
seems on track to achieve plan, but the grade in Q1 was less impressive. HRT guided for an
average head grade of 7.1 g/t in 2021, therefore seeing 6.1 g/t in this chart is not what we’d
want.
Finally, here’s a guess at most basic of financials for Q1, sales and costs:
HRT.to: Operations overview
28
1.8
5.01 3.21
1.9
9.41 1.51 5.41
0.21
7.51
1.11
7.3 7.2
2.21
0.7
0.22
3.21
5.32
0.21
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 tse12q1
HRT: Mill head grade (g/t Au)
CAD$m
revenues Prod. costs
source: company filings/IKN ests
This assumes a flat CAD$2,000/oz selling price and sells all ounces, we also make a blanket
assumption of no costs surprises. The result is an C$11.5m gross margin in HRT’s favour and
that would be a similar financial result to Q4, after which you may recall how HRT’s financial
obligations and mess of a balance sheet stripped away all the money from the company and
gave it to the bankers. It’s what happens when biz-naïve geologists are offered money by
sharks, it’s why HRT is so cheap today.
Bottom line: HRT delivered the right type of production news, but the market non-reaction was
also the right one. HRT has to impress as a business in 2021, not as a mining operation, this is
not a buy until its financial results show the corporate turnaround they promise. We leave you
with two price charts, the ten day showing the non-reaction to last week’s news and the two
year chart showing what HRT still needs to do to regain its lost ground (Hint: Plenty).
9.4 9.4
6.3
0.5 5.5
0.0
7.5
7.7
1.6
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1
g/t Au HRT: Average daily mill throughput, per qtr
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
source: company filings
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1
tpd
source: Company filings

This also brings to an end the recent close-ish coverage on HRT here at the Weekly, from here
I have it earmarked for revision at quarter-end financials. As laid out in the argument of the
main IKN618 report on the company, there may eventually be a trade in the works but for the
time being I will stay on the sidelines.
Conclusion
IKN620 is done, we end with bullet points:
 I’m a buyer of two stocks next week, starting a position in zinc trade Wolfden (WLF.v)
and adding to the small starter in Aurelius (AUL.v). That’s a lot of activity for me.
 Peru’s preliminary election result tonight is a nightmare, seeing Pedro Castillo at the top
is worse than anything Veronika Mendoza could have done and Keiko in second place is
the worst of all worlds. Sell the country.
 Copper still looks strong.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.reuters.com/article/global-metals/metals-copper-slip-as-inventories-climb-and-china-premiums-dip-
idUSL1N2M00F4
(2) https://mineriaenlinea.com/2021/04/teck-firma-acuerdos-de-referencia-de-zinc-a-159-ton-con-glencore-y-korea-zinc/
(3) https://www.wolfdenresources.com/investors/presentations/
(4) https://webfiles.thecse.com/MIRL-CSE_Form_7-Monthly_Progress_Report-March-
2021.pdf?HB5xhPGfrjPn68h89Ot4L8RZwLFedD4A
(5) https://www.cumtn.com/investors/press-releases/2021/copper-mountain-closes-us-250-million-senior-secur-2677/
(6) https://www.promineria.com/?p=nota&id=14074
(7) crownminingcorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/21.04.06-NR-Name-change-and-ticker-RM-Edit-SD.pdf
(8) https://www.aldebaranresources.com/news-releases/2021/aldebaran-announces-5-million-private-placement/
(9) https://twitter.com/EconomicAlpha
(10) https://larepublica.pe/economia/2021/04/09/pan-american-silver-desplaza-a-yanacocha-como-primer-productor-
de-oro-en-el-peru/
(11) https://elecciones2021.cne.gob.ec/
(12) https://www.as-coa.org/articles/explainer-perus-2021-general-elections
(13) https://www.elsoldehermosillo.com.mx/analisis/conversatorios-mineros-amlo-mentiras-y-first-majestic-6567931.html
(14) https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/79503/Aurelius-Minerals-Drills-Highest-Grade-Interval-to-Date-at-Aureus-
East-Gold-Project-2-Metres-at-132.4-gt-Gold-Including-1m-at-264-gt-Gold-and-0.5m-at-21-gt-Gold-Within-Existing-
Workings
(15) https://orders.newsfilecorp.com/files/7140/79503_5941d53a44799a33_003full.jpg
(16) https://aureliusminerals.com/site/assets/files/2042/2021_04_09_aurelius_corporate_presentation-compressed.pdf
29

(17) https://www.sandstormgold.com/news/press-releases/sandstorm-gold-royalties-announces-record-sales-and-
revenue-in-q1-2021-and-renews-normal-course-issuer-bid
(18) https://iknnews.com/harte-gold-hrt-to-1q21-production/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
30

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
31

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
32