IKN #619Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 619, April 4th 2021
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, The song remains the same.
Fundamental Analysis: Analysis and commentary on Minera IRL (MIRL.cse).
Stocks to Follow: Cartier Resources (ECR.v), Copper Mountain (CMMC.to), Strategic Metals
(SMD.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Q1 review, Crown Mining (CWM.v), Regulus Resources (REG.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Q1 review.
Tiny Dogs: Overview, Constantine Metal Resources (CEM.v).
Regional Politics: A LatAm Covid-19 update, Peru: A final Peru Presidential election campaign
update, A call on next weekend’s Ecuador run-off vote, Nexa leads the home office future of
Brazil and Peru, Mexico: AMLO continues his attacks on mining companies.
Market Watching: Harte Gold (HRT.to) redux, Thoughts arising from the failed floating of
Alliant Gold, Anticipated 1q21 production numbers.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
“
In today’s edition
 Plenty of review charts this week, we look at the relative performances of stocks during
the now-closed first quarter of 2021 (my how time flies). Find them all over, with The
Copper Basket in particular full of visuals this edition. Also, we look forward to the
upcoming busy period of the corporate calendar, in which 4q20 results, and 1q21
production results will mix together and create plenty for a fundies guy to chew upon.
Market Watching marks your cards with some of the operators I will be watching
closely, with a view to a potential trade or two.
 It’s never an exact fit, but by luck or judgement the market has been moving according
to the house playbook. We’ve had the gold dip under U$1,700/oz on those fiendish T10
yields, we have the gold rebound as the world decides it still likes gold, we even have
the type of near-term outperformance to silver that gold does when there’s fear in the
air. Today’s intro.
 Lots today on the most annoying and boring company covered by this publication,
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse). It’s the whole of today’s main Fundies section but the
information comes in two parts, first we consider the 4q20 and annual numbers as filed
by the company last week, which is important in context as there have been several
changes to the company books as well as a chunky operating profit out of Corihuarmi.
After that, we cover the real news.
 We’re on the cusp of two important regional elections, Peru and Ecuador both showing
the same type of Left Shift seen in other parts of the Americas. Ecuador’s round two is
easiest to call, but Peru’s round one election next Sunday is both uncertain and critical
1

for mining, nationally and regionally. That’s the main feature in Regional Politics this
week, along with coverage of the unsettling rise in Covid-19 cases across LatAm.
The song remains the same
No lengthy intro required this weekend. While anticipated, we had that strange moment on
Friday when the US BLS published its March Jobs report into a closed market. The consensus
headline rate of 6.0% was anticipated by the market, but the +916k non-farm payroll jobs
created was well ahead of expectations and as a bonus, the previous two months were also
revised upward by an aggregate of 156k. That means a positive open likely for US equities
futures [edit: sure enough, overnight Sunday Dow futures are up over 200 points] and gold will
likely come under pressure [edit yes, but not much: only $3/oz lower in overnight Asia so far, a
decent performance in my opinion].
Through March and the first days of April, the house scenario for gold has played out fairly
closely: First up, gold did indeed revisit sub-U$1,700/oz levels on renewed hikes in US Treasury
yields. Then gold added more sparkle to recent house guesses by rallying despite the continued
yield raises (we closed at 1.71% again), which was the next phase of our playbook. Word
seems to be out, this really isn’t the same as 2013 and the market is undergoing a process of
normalization, not signalling massive inflation down the line. We even got a positive signal from
GLD, its bullion holdings increasing Friday by a cool 10.2 metric tonnes as stock returned to its
vaults. Notably, the Friday close of 1043.03 metric tonnes was exactly the same as that on
March 26th, which suggests fund(s) playing games with larger chunks of gold but finally
deciding that it’s best to hold.
GLD gold holdings, 2021 to date (metric tonnes)
1200
1180
1160
1140
1120
1100
1080
1060
1040
1020
1000
2
12/1/4 12/1/8 12/1/21 12/1/61 12/1/02 12/1/42 12/1/82 12/2/1 12/2/5 12/2/9 12/2/31 12/2/71 12/2/12 12/2/52 12/3/1 12/3/5 12/3/9 12/3/31 12/3/71 12/3/12 12/3/52 12/3/92 12/4/2
mt
source: SPDR GLD data
However, the inventory/price ratio is still giving off a largely negative signal, its downward trend
intact. That has to change course before daily gold moves offer trading gains for speculators.
7.50 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2020 & 2021 YTD
7.40
7.30
7.20
7.10
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
6.20
6.10
6.00
5.90
5.80
13/21 51/1 03/1 41/2 92/2 51/3 03/3 41/4 92/4 41/5 92/5 31/6 82/6 31/7 82/7 21/8 72/8 11/9 62/9 11/01 62/01 01/11 52/11 01/21 52/21 9/1 42/1 8/2 32/2 01/3 52/3
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
The bottom line to last week: As you were. The IKN Weekly playbook seems on course and,
while exact timing of the turn points is always an issue (another way of saying impossible), if
things continue to plan we should see a consolidation in gold at current levels before the
longer-term effects of Biden’s massive dollar drop take effect. That’s when we start moving
toward our U$2,000/oz target for the year and I won’t mind waiting a few weeks for that.

Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Getting up to date on Minera IRL (MIRL.cse)
There are two subjects that need covering around our distressed gold junior trade Minera IRL
(MIRL.cse) this weekend. First we take a close look at the company’s 4q20 and 2020 year-end
financials, as the company has used the year-end financials to accommodate the COFIDE
arbitration decision and current financial agreements between the two parties onto its
financials. Second, we cover the need-to-know about the corporate changes mentioned,
mooted, rumoured or what-have-you at the company.
Minera IRL 4q20 and year-end financials review
First the substantive news, the company’s filing of its 4q20 and year end financials. As we
already knew production and the estimated top line revenues, the operational side of MIRL was
far more predictable than the way they would file their year-end balance sheet, so here we go
with the main changes. We begin with assets:
IRL: Assets
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
3
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4
$m
cash other current fixed
source: IRL filings
Not much change in the assets visual, and the extra $5m or so added to the 4q20 aggregate
wouldn’t normally attract my attention but this time, with the big changes in balance sheet
recognition this quarter, there are small items that point to a case of accountancy massaging.
MIRL added $5.468m in fixed mine asset value due to “…terminations and changes in the terms
of lease contracts”, presumably connected to the change in operators this year at Corihuarmi.
Which is okay, but a number that large for a change of operator on an asset that’s already long
in the tooth and provokes a “oh yeah, says your accountant” reaction. However, that’s picking
hairs and the real changes this quarter are in liabilities. MIRL recognizes the $34m won in the
arbitration, subtracts monies owed plus interest accrued and the liabilities chart does this:
140 IRL: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT debt
current debt
That’s a change, all right. All-but $20.254m gets booted to the long-term, however we need to
recall that will go back to the near-term ledger by
IRL: Working Capital per qtr
the end of 2021 if nothing changes. The net of the 40
tribunal award comes off, another couple of small 20
adjustments count for another $2m or so (normal 0
day-to-day working company matters) and the -20
result is just over $25m off total liabilities. That’s -40
-60
-80
-100
-120
51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

presumably good for 2021 liquidity matters, but working capital still has to dig its way out from
the negative (above right). We again stress, Corihuarmi is a good operation and a net positive
to the company, but it’s too small to affect overall valuations meaningfully. This quarter in that
above working cap chart, you even see that in the balance sheet. Corihuarmi helps, but even
after a wholesale corporate financial re-working the debt overpowers its benefits and leaves
MIRL in a negative working capital position. As for the longer-term equity, the unchanged
231.15m shares out and improved balance sheet means the company now claims a book value
of 34c per share:
IRL: book value per share
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
4
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4
U$
source: IRL filings, IKN calcs
You can argue the toss about the input variables but within an order of deviation, these days
that’s a fair representation of the realistic prize on offer at MIRL and correct execution of a
workable plan can bring that value out of the balance sheet and into the share price. Today we
sit at less than 50% of that BV/share, the upside potential is clear.
Over at the P+L, the interesting information is still around the minor end of MIRL, its
Corihuarmi operations. We’ve mentioned the
IRL: Revenues per qtr
strategic importance of the mine so many times
that you hardly need hear again how cash flow
from Corihuarmi is small, has kept the company
afloat, but isn’t a price driver and never will be.
Therefore, a couple of charts to note that
operations were nicely profitable, the house
estimate on 4q20 revenues of U$11.8m missing
by U$65,000. On-site COGS were in-line, admin
was slightly above its usual level. After $107k of
exploration charges (presumably the mine life
expansion efforts at Corihuarmi), the operational
margin of $3.66m is also solid, more than
enough to pay the office bills but not enough to pay down Cofide.
The final chart today isn’t particularly actionable, but net profits chart offers a vivid illustration
of how crazy it is Below The Line on the MIRL P+L. The effects of the small but vital positive
239.6 612.7 331.7 856.7 924.6 833.7 133.9 656.8 782.8 562.8
566.01
568.11
14
12
10
8
6 4
2
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4
$m
source: company filings
IRL: COGS and admin costs per qtr
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4
$m Minera IRL: Operating Income
Admin
COGS
source: company filings
59.0
55.1
70.0- 41.0-
80.0 70.0 11.0
81.0-
04.0
13.1
05.0
72.1
59.0 88.0
3.66
07.0-
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4
U$m
source: company filings

free cash flow from Corihuarmi are minor compared to the major debt mess at Ollachea.
IRL: Net earnings, per qtr
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
5
71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4
$m
source: company financials/IKN ests
Finally, a note of interest that Rio Tinto no longer holds 23.1% of company shares, having
vended 4% to local company C.I.E.M.S.A. Presumably, getting RTZ under the 20% threshold
makes any change of control easier.
The bottom line: MIRL’s operational quarter at Corihuarmi was good and as from this report, its
balance sheet better reflects its obligations with Cofide now the tribunal and negotiations are
done. MIRL is still working capital negative and that’s an immediate issue, then further down
the line that long-term financial debt becomes near-term as from October 2021, so the near-
term relief isn’t the big thing, what matters is the size of the overall obligation.
Information and opinion on potential executive changes at MIRL
Now for the second part to today’s coverage on MIRL. On Wednesday March 24th at 11:21pm
local time, I received an unsolicited mail from Minera IRL CEO Diego Benavides from his
corporate mail account. It was almost certainly his delayed response to the note in the previous
weekend’s edition of the IKN Weekly, IKN617, in which I had a good old rant about not being
the person to attempt any sort of negotiation or deal with the current MIRL team. I replied to
the mail (as it happens, I was wide-awake and the desk), then followed a multiple exchange of
short mails between he and I. Many of those mails are superfluous to the issue at hand and
also contain personal information, so while I would be willing to share in any eventual formal or
legal environment you don’t get all the exchange. However, at 00:28 Thursday March 25th (i.e.
one hour and seven minutes after the first, unsolicited mail) the following, slightly polished for
the sake of grammar only but exactly the same message, arrived from CEO Benavides:
I find myself with Haywood for the finance conditions to change the board and input
two Canadians change management etc it’s basically coming back to Daryl Hodges, so
this info which is confidential will make you happy. You won’t have me for long in the
company.
That mail finished with:
You know Mark you are making me a favor it’s time to go.
And to make sure the message got over, in a follow-up mail received at 00:39 (i.e. 11 minutes
later), this:
Mark
Ok I’m a stupid CEO but not for long I’m leaving
If three clear statements in two separate mails are not enough, I cam assure there was more
than enough in other parts of the mail exchange to underscore this news and I was left in no
doubt of the impending departure of CEO Benavides. Next, please note the date of last
Thursday and please note the content of last weekend’s IKN618, published three days after
that, in which I played dumb about the above information. Yes, I noted that there was talk of
two new directors, but instead of telegraphing the real market-moving news, I decided to lie by
omission. I apologise for the deception, but offer the mitigation that good intentions were
behind it. With the annuals about to be filed (indeed they were filed on Tuesday March 30th in

good order), the announcement of a change at the top also had its natural and logical window,
therefore I gave the company the necessary space to make their announcement. Instead, we
got radio silence in the annuals as filed (see Market Watching), no mention of any executive
change in the accompanying NR (8) and then, as noted in the comments section of the blog
last week by a trusted source*, CEO Benavides proceeded to deny any talk of leaving the
company and said he was at the helm for the Ollachea build-out.
This is madness. To begin, what is the CEO of a public company doing feeding very material
non-public information to a third party (AGAIN!) in this way? Second, why was this clear and
company-changing news not announced to the market last week, because they are covering it
up or because it is not true? If the former, it needs to be uncovered immediately for the sake of
the company and its share price. It’s now clear to anyone with an inkling of a business brain
that a company led by this CEO, a company incidentally without a COO or VP Exploration, will
not attract the necessary capital to build Ollachea. As noted in previous editions, CEO Benavides
and his scenario of financing once the Cofide issue was settled, with parties champing at the bit
to move forward, was a tissue of lies that saw him through to the end of 2020. Reality is now
with us. But if the latter, if CEO Benavides fed me a bunch of non-public material lies, it’s only a
step and a hop to formally accuse the CEO of a public listed company of using illegal methods
in order to influence its share price. I wonder how CEO Benavides would feel if, instead of
resignation, he is fired with cause and the $1.5m or so earmarked for the golden parachute
goes to better use? A the very least, he has a long record of being profligate with non-public
material information when it suits him, something any eventual proxy slate would surely note.
Minera IRL cannot wait any longer on the whims of a failed CEO, the luxury of indefinite
timelines has disappeared once and for all, the current CEO either doesn’t see that clear truth,
or he is being wilfully obtuse in order to cash a few more of those juicy monthly salary cheques.
Either way, either it moves to revitalize now or the share price is decimated. We the retail
shareholder have a straightforward agenda, buy low/sell high, and as we get closer to the
September 2022 payment deadline every extra month will shave real cash dollar value from the
price the company can command for its asset. This is no longer an abstract issue, or one that
allows debate over strategy or the best way to run a mining company, this is direct dollars and
cents. In stark black-and-white, if CEO Benavides leaves now and a replacement announced the
MIRL.cse share price will go up. If he stays, the share price will go down and it will continue to
go down until it is at zero dollars and zero cents. Which would you prefer, fellow shareholder?
Personally, CEO Benavides’ assumption that the news of his departure would “make me happy”
is not a simple call: MIRL is a complicated story and for just one example, his failure as a CEO
is my own failure as an analyst to recognize the weaknesses inherent in the company. As an
analyst and letter writer I’m not proud of the MIRL coverage, but as a shareholder the answer
is much easier: Yes, he has to go and he has to go immediately, because I want to sell high.
*Known to your author, a reliable source and fellow MIRL holder, I vouchsafe his word no matter the circumstances.
Stocks to Follow
A good week for the sector and a positive one for our Stocks to Follow list as well, thanks to the
seven winners (MAI.v, CMMC.to, TMQ, SMD.v, RYR.v, ECR.v, ORE.v) and their undoubted
power over the four losers (NGD, MIN.to, GBR.v, TORO.v), with three other stocks remaining
unchanged on the week (RIO.v, AUL.v, MIRL.cse). However, there were no big winners or
losers among the list, the price moves generally modest.
A small change to the presentation of our list this weekend; In order to highlight that three of
the Stocks to Follow, namely GBR.v, ECR.v and ORE.v, are essentially binary trades on M&A and
we hold these stocks in order to benefit from their sale, I’ve shaded them in a different blue
and made their notes the same. The exit strategy of any junior trade will always include the
6

potential of being bought out, but here it is major reason and as such, the dynamic of the
trades is different from others that require closer vigilance.
We currently have 15 open positions on the Stock to Follow list, our self-imposed maximum.
Seven of our stocks are in the green, one is unchanged since inception, seven are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.65 209.5% New $1.14 tgt Aug'20 #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.74 -10.8% $1.58 tgt, bot again Nov'20
Recommended stocks (In order of preference)
Copper Mountain CMMC.to STR BUY C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$3.04 117.1% Added Dec'20, trade for FY21
Trilogy Metals TMQ STR BUY U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$2.18 18.5% Added Dec'20, Cu for 2021
Strategic Metals SMD.v STR BUY C$0.40 31-Jan-21 C$0.45 12.5% Asset $ trade, proj generator
New Gold NGD STR BUY U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$1.63 114.5% 3q20 tgt $2.80
Excelsior Mining MIN.to STR BUY C$0.98 10-Mar-19 C$0.76 -22.4% Delayed, but still great value
Royal Road Min. RYR.v BUY C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.39 151.6% Model paying off in Nica
Great Bear Res GBR.v BUY C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$15.50 -2.1% Binary M&A trade, wait for print
Cartier Resources ECR.v BUY C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.32 0.0% Binary M&A trade, wait for print
Orezone ORE.v BUY C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$0.96 21.5% Binary M&A trade, wait for print
Aurelius Res AUL.v spec buy C$0.075 28-Jun-20 C$0.045 -40.0% Drillbit good, mkt bad. Spec buy
Pucara Gold TORO.v hold C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.28 -56.9% Strike One
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.14 -28.2% Corp news upcoming
Long-term non-mining hold
Mene Inc. MENE.v LT Hold C$0.65 6-Dec-20 C$0.55 -15.4% LT bet on jockey&horse,will add
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Mining NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
2015 to 2020 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on moves in a selection of covered stocks over the shortened trading week:
Cartier Resources (ECR.v): After a couple of viewings of the half hour Crux Investor video
interview with ECR CEO Cloutier, published last week and on this recommended link below (1),
the reason I’m ill at ease with this new trade
crystallized. The central issue is its marketing and
the line used in the video dovetails with the attitude
we saw in ECR’s recent resource update.
To remind readers, last weekend I had a toys-out-
of-pram moment over ECR as they stretched hard
in order to get a 43-101 compliant resource of over
2m oz Au onto the books. In order to do so, the
company relied heavily on a massive increase in its
gold price baseline assumption, up U$312/oz since
the last resource estimate and only around $100/oz
lower than today’s spot for the metal. This in turn
allowed the resource modellers to lower the cut-off
to 2.0 g/t Au et le voilá, a resource count that’s of more use marketing to retail shareholders
than it will be in any serious negotiation with prospective buyers.
7

This week, while watching CEO Cloutier sell his company’s argument the Crux Investor video,
the penny dropped. To be clear, I am long ECR because of its “serious company” attitude, the
way it makes the most of every treasury dollar, the straightforward and attractive plan of
proving up ounces of gold in a great address and then flipping them to the right buyer. That
serious image took a knock when ECR decided to go the promo route on its recent update,
stretching for 2m oz looks illogical and for retail consumption only. However, it fits right in with
the performance seen in the Cruz video last week, while I wasn’t looking ECR has morphed into
a please-them-all exploreco, doing the same as every other mediocre company and their
mediocre deposits. It showed most tellingly when exit strategies were tabled, as CEO Cloutier is
now trying to make out a serious option would be for ECR to build and operate Chimo itself!
Please, how many other tall tales are in the pipeline? This weak line gets used by them all and,
as I pointed out to CEO Cloutier in a mail this weekend, the average retail investor can smell
the BS and will be put off by companies that run with the hares and the hounds. He replied
with his corporate defence and he is welcome to his opinion, but the baseline doesn’t change:
Why is ECR so keen on impressing retail with stretched resource estimates and samo samo
marketing techniques, when retail isn’t its audience in the first place? ECR shouldn’t even be on
the airwaves, it should be talking to he real mining people with the real money. If ECR were
marketing Chimo to a larger operator or buyer, then fine. But that’s not happening, instead CEO
Cloutier is trying to convince retail he is marketing Chimo to a large operator or buyer. The
difference is enormous and if it goes on for an extended length of time, the implications are
suspicious. And as for that corporate messaging…
 Enough already with “PEAs on steroids”. Enough of the BS designed purely for retail,
such as the final words of CEO Cloutier on the video, almost an afterthought as the
show wrapped up, “We are significantly undervalued compared to our in-situ ounces”.
All these things mean nothing to a major mining company with access to the ECR data
room.
 Enough of telling an audience that doesn’t know any better than the Chimo inferred
ounces “can be moved into indicated easily”, somehow implying they are equally as
valuable. CEO Cloutier doesn’t mention that he’s not drilling because proving up vein
systems is expensive and he’d prefer the buyer do that. He doesn’t mention that the
buyer knows that too and will not have to pay anywhere near as much for the inferred
ounces….somebody will drill those veins out eventually and that drilling costs money,
QED.
 Enough of the multiple forward scenarios, it’s simply dishonest. The reason we’re all
here is to see ECR sell Chimo and move to its next project, if it cannot execute on the
main plan immediately it doesn’t have to sell the asset, before you know it the company
has two 2m oz resources…then three. The fact is, the ECR strategy at Chimo is now
largely played out, they have their valuable asset for sale, it’s time for the company to
say as much, move its day-to-day activities to its next project and not fret if days pass
before the offers for Chimo arrive. The only exit strategy that makes sense is to sell
Chimo to a larger mining company, the end.
However, it’s not all bad at ECR and I’m a holder of this stock despite the poor display it has
put on in the last few weeks. This table came as part of the initiation report on ECR in IKN617
dated March 21st. The company now says it has 2m oz and that happens to be the blue sky
upside assumption made three weekends ago, so if you prefer to go with those numbers that’s
fine by me. Personally, I’m sticking with the 1.7m oz gold column, as I’m sure the first thing
any prospective buyer of the asset will do is to push back on ECR’s bloated assumption, accuse
them of reaching the same way this desk does, then ask them to start the talks around a more
serious number.
8

ECR at Chimo: In-situ valuation per share
in-situ All categories resource count (Moz Au)
gold C$/oz 1.183 1.7 2
20 0.11 0.16 0.19
25 0.14 0.20 0.23
30 0.16 0.24 0.28
35 0.19 0.28 0.32
40 0.22 0.31 0.37
50 0.27 0.39 0.46
60 0.33 0.47 0.56
70 0.38 0.55 0.65
80 0.44 0.63 0.74
90 0.49 0.71 0.83
100 0.55 0.79 0.93
source: ECR data, IKN calcs
As for the in-situ value assumption of between C$60/oz and C$80/oz for the eventual sale of
Chimo, I’ve received pushback on that before and I’ll likely continue to do so, as the optimistic
end of the commentariat (e.g. the ones ECR pays with shareholder money) occasionally insist
on higher numbers, C$100 and above. That may be so, but when you are running economics
on U$1,612/oz gold and a 2g cut, you are suddenly including tonnes that won’t leave much for
their eventual owner if they’ve pre-paid over C$100/oz for those ounces. Instead and taking
into account the way ECR share price falls off every time it gets to the mid-30s, a more modest
target seems in order. The IKN assumption that the eventual buyer of Chimo pays between
C$60/oz and C$80/oz for the acquisition gives a current valuation of between 47c and 63c on
the stock which, let’s underscore, does not take into account any value from the corporate
structure, the other land assets at ECR (Fenton, Benoit, etc) or its brains trust.
You don’t need a perfect result to make a great profit on this trade. Phase out hyperbolic talk
and Utopian internal valuations, get real and consider what an established mining company will
pay for a medium-sized, high cash cost gold deposit just outside of Val D’Or. Under the IKN real
world case, with a sale based on a lower number of ounces that are robust enough
economically, the math still points to between +50% and +100% from here just for Chimo
alone and if that’s not enough for you, you’re probably wasting your time by paying for this
publication: Set-ups like these are the lifeblood of exploreco speculation, what’s missing is the
company officers to wake up, take themselves and their company seriously again, cut the
sequin throwing nonsense and knock on a few doors of companies with excess treasury burning
holes in pockets.
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to): The strong fundamentals news out of CMMC last week was
given less due than it deserved. One of the longest-standing thorns on the side of CMMC is its
USD denominated debt which, while friendly and held by their partners, weighs heavily on the
balance sheet and siphons plenty of cash away through financial servicing. On Tuesday 30th
CMMC announced (2) the pricing of a U$250m bond at 8% annual interest which, when the
company adds its own U$10m will retire the current debt held at subsidiary level. This will allow
CMMC to access 100% of the cash flow from its operations until the new U$260m loan is paid
off, at which point earnings revert to their current 75/25 split.
The cash flow is a major benefit of this corpfin re-work, but also there are attractive details
such as the way the refi boots its current main 2023 maturity to April 2026. The terms of the
previous loan were back-end heavy and meant 40% of repayments were due in the last two
years of the loan. Indeed this had already started to weigh on the company’s balance, the line
item of C$79.559 up nearly C$20m in the calendar year 2020. The preliminary IKN estimate is
for that line item to drop to C$48m once the refi is closed, likely Q2.
9

As for market reaction last week…
…CMMC rallied a little on Tuesday and the news, but not by much as seen by laying CMMC.to
next to COPX. This news was worth more than that reaction, as it strengthens an already
improving balance sheet while at the same time, guarantees funding for CMMC’s upcoming
aggressive exploration and development campaign. That will be a novelty from this company
and the market has yet to grasp how much of catalyst it could be. On the subject, also
recommended reading, this link (3) takes you to the latest corporate presentation that does a
good job in outlining the company’s expansion and development plans for Copper Mountain,
Ingerbelle and Eva. A significant part of the alignment in CMMC that caused me to buy the
stock in the first place, CMMC has organic growth projects and organic cash flow to use on
them, all at the right time in the metals cycle. Going higher.
Strategic Metals (SMD.v): This trade has started well, we’re in at the platform price as seen
in this chart and in the last few days, SMD is
showing signs of breaking out of the hard
resistance and moving back from whence it came
in 3q20. The plan to back the land-owning
central hub SMD, with its spokes in many
strategic level investment in JV partner
explorecos, means we get a lot of Canada land
asset value exposure against a tightly held share
structure, that’s the right recipe for quick gains in
a sectorwide re-rate.
SMD is due to file its annuals this week (or next
10

at worst), those will make interesting reading, as will the ongoing development of the asset
components once the Q1 results come out in May.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): MAI gave us an update on progress at Santana as it prepares for to
turn on the machine this quarter, the NR (4) coming with a couple of convincing photos. Yes,
they have indeed built a heap leach mine operation and no, it was not some kind of
smokescreen. As a result MAI moved higher, but there are clearly profit-takers out there as well
and the route to 70c+ in 2021 is proving tougher than it was in 2020. For that, we’ll need the
real re-rating news of a working and FCF+ Santana as the MAI team turns its mine building
attention to Asset Two. That’s also why I’m now sweating these penny moves, this company’s
share price is going a lot higher.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): I am not privy to extra information, but I am quite sure the current share
price inertia is connected to the upcoming financing announcement for Fenix. That Q! has gone
and we’re now into Q2 means RIO.v is late on this news sensu stricto, but it’s common
knowledge in mine financing circles that the deal (or deals) are at hand, the closure a matter of
legal beagle time and not potential deal-breaking issues. We cut slack, we allow the company
time to get the deal done right, we annoy fellow shareholders with a request for just a little
more patience. Ommm.
The Copper Basket
After thirteen weeks of 2021, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 18.29% to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.08 104.67 989.13 9.45 55.4%
2 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 1.81 207.5 630.80 3.04 68.0%
3 Oroco Res OCO.v 1.85 185.11 357.26 1.93 4.3%
4 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.25 64.358 276.74 4.30 32.3%
5 Western Copper WRN.to 1.57 135.6 218.32 1.61 2.5%
6 Excelsior Min. MIN.to 1.12 273.585 207.92 0.76 -32.1%
7 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.80 180.77 164.50 0.91 13.8%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.07 101.85 101.85 1.00 -6.5%
9 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.115 375.17 63.78 0.17 47.8%
10 Chakana Cop PERU.v 0.60 117.2 62.12 0.53 -11.7%
11 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.455 93.64 44.01 0.47 3.3%
12 Doré Copper DCMC.v 1.00 40.938 40.94 1.00 0.0%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.45 66.7 28.68 0.43 -4.4%
14 Crown Mining CWM.v 0.105 92.551 18.82 0.215 104.8%
15 Chibougamau CBG.v 0.165 46.695 7.47 0.16 -3.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 18.29%
Despite the relative numerical balance of seven winners (SLS.to, CMMC.to, OCO.v, ARG.to,
PERU.v, DCMC.v, CWM.v) to six losers
(MIN.to, WRN.to, MARI.to, REG.v, ALDE.v, The Copper Basket 2021, weekly evolution
35%
ECU.v) and two unchanged stocks on the
30%
week (CCCM.v, CBG.v), the basket average
managed a 1%+ gain on the week. Overall a 25%
week of small fluctuations, with nearly all 20%
stocks moving up or down by 3% at most, 15%
the only real exceptions being the loss in 10%
Regulus (REG.v down 7.4%) and the win in 5%
Solaris (SLS.to up 13.6%). 0%
It’s also the end of the first quarter of 2021
11
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source: IKN calcs

(my how time flies) so the quarterly comparative chart for the year makes its debut today:
The 2021 Copper Basket components after 13 weeks
12
%8.401
%0.86
%4.55
%8.74
%3.23
%8.31
%3.4 %3.3 %5.2 %0.0 %0.3- %4.4- %5.6-
%7.11- %1.23-
150%
125%
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
-25%
-50%
v.MWC ot.CMMC ot.SLS v.MCCC ot.IRAM ot.GRA v.OCO v.EDLA ot.NRW v.CMCD v.GBC v.UCE v.GER v.UREP ot.NIM
source: TSX, IKN calcs
Plenty of heroes, only one real villain. Even though The IKN Weekly paid it scant attention in
Q1, Crown (CWM.v) takes the crown with a chart that looks like this compared to the main
copper ETF (COPX) and a price that was even higher at the start of this month. Well done
indeed and as the company had news out last week, a little more on CWM in the notes below.
Then come a gaggle of solid winners, including the house pick Copper Mountain (CMMC.to, glad
to say) and the non-stop winning lottery ticket that is Solaris (SLS.to). Then, after the good
winners come the ‘Basically Unchanged’, from Oroco to Regulus. None of those companies’
CEOs would be happy about their price performance in 2021 to date if you asked them, a few
percentage points here or there do not matter.
Finally, Chakana (PERU.v) is on the very threshold
of bad, while your author’s other investment from
the Copper Basket this year is full-scale ugly
(MIN.to), but we are confident that will improve.
Switching gears and moving to copper macro,
some end-Q1 thoughts on the major price driver
of this sector and the simple YTD spot copper
chart (right) has become a storyboard for its Q1.
The surge was already in play and spilled in to the
first weeks of the year, then calm came to the
perfect storm as both price and traded volumes
dropped. However, the U$4.00/lb line has held
well recently (or perhaps just 2% above at U$4.08/lb, the more important U$9,000/tonne
psychological line for industry players) and again last week we saw buyers move in as soon as
copper wore a three handle. On that subject, another price chart:
Like many other people (just check the volume surges), I’ve been paying extra attention to
copper’s futures markets this year as copper becomes a central focus of the New Green
Economic Recovery™. An example today in this chart, the near-dated copper futures contract
(May’21) against one of the longer-dated contracts that has started to trade with more volume,

December 2021 (HGZ21). Trading has only started to become liquid in the longer-dated
contract, but the last week showed enough to back confident that the visual effect, that of a
market paying spot prices for December copper, is a fair reflection of demand. Copper hit a
perfect storm for a while and we said as much at the time. Today feels like the eye of the
storm, but a less intense backdrop doesn’t mean it’s not bullish.
As for the week’s curated industry comment, we move to the bear side argument and this
report (5) that includes this expert comment:
“There are concerns about China deleveraging; that seems to be uppermost in a lot of
people’s minds. How much more tightening is there to come? And the Chinese
economy seems to be slowing anyway,” said independent consultant Robin Bhar.
Data on Thursday showed China’s March factory activity among small, private firms
expanded at the slowest pace in almost a year, contrasting with another survey on
Wednesday that showed stronger activity among large and state-owned
manufacturers.
“Copper inventories are rising on the LME and it seems that demand for the time being
has come off the boil, which is a bit concerning because we’re going into the
seasonally strong part of the year,” Bhar said.
* Also weighing on copper was news that Chilean state copper giant Codelco clinched
a deal with workers at its Radomiro Tomic mine after they accepted a new contract
offer, defusing worries about a potential strike.
The reporter is stretching. First consider the Radomiro Tomic development, as to begin that
mine is only 5% of Codelco’s overall output and the chances even that supply would be drained
meaningfully by an extended stoppage were close to zero (recall, even La Escondida out for a
month makes for more heat than light). Second, Robin Bhar is indeed an independent
consultant and industry expert, his knowledge of the copper market is excellent and I’ve read
plenty of his articles over the years (he was a big brokerage analyst at several large banks in
the past), but recently he’s been constantly bearish and wrong. Seeing Bhar get a day in the
sun after months of poor forecasts is its own contrary clue.
It’s the end of another month, we dial up the long-term copper inventory charts for your
consideration:
Copper inventories, per month, 2012 to date
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
13
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram
Mt Cu source: Cochilco
Comex
Shanghai
LME
Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram
LME Shanghai Comex source: Cochilco

Ostensibly, Bhar’s opinion that there’s more inventory landing in world warehouses is true.
However, there’s a lot of market normalization being mistaken for bearishness at the moment
and here we have another example. It’s not just the way the world latched on to the 10 year
yield curve and screamed the end of the gold bull, copper’s world provides this example. A
timely one too, as in the last week or so bears have been confounded as gold ignored its
newest biggest danger and rallied, no matter what US Treasurys did. Something akin to that
here, with copper inventories certainly up from the January and February lows, but one look at
the above long-term chart discounts any serious talk of true sector excess. Mr. Bhar, get your
history books out.
We move to our regular weekly copper inventories section, which continues to present a highly
bullish scenario whether you like the idea or not.
 Aggregate copper inventories in the world’s three official systems rose by 19,477mt last
week, the total at 396,939mt this weekend. The same as last weekend, that might look
bearish to the casual onlooker but when the seasonal timing is factored in, it’s very
bullish.
 The SHFE was closed, its total remaining at 188,359 this weekend. This closed spring
week usually marks the end of the copper re-stocking period, so seeing SHFE remain
under 200k is a warning sign for future supply crimps.
 At the LME, action was very similar to the week before. The LME warehouse total rose
by 19,975mt to reach 143,775mt, but again the only real tonnage received was at its
Rotterdam warehouses (18,550mt). This has the fingerprints of financial people palying
their market games, not of true end-user demand.
 Comex stocks lost a modest 498mt, its total this weekend 64,805mt. No biggie.
Here is the Shanghai-only inventories chart, how anyone can think the inventories situation in
China is bearish is beyond my ken.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
14
31'13ceD ht9 ht81 ht72 ht5tco ht41 dn22 5102
dr3yam
ht21 ht02 ht92 ht7bef ht71 ht62 ht4peS ht31 ht92 ht9 ht81 ht72 7102
ht5von
ht41 ht52 ht01 ht91 ht82 9102
ht6naJ
ht71 ht62 ht4gua ht31 dn22 0202ts1ram ht01 ht91 ht72 0202ht6ced ht41
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
To reinforce that, here’s an update of the
chart I used a couple of weeks ago now that mt Cu Change in SHFE Cu stocks Q1 2019, 2020, 2021
400000
the quarter is in and SHFE stocks have likely
peaked. That is a big difference in the total 350000
2019
copper at SHFE for the same period of three 300000 2020
years, the way in which 2021 accumulated 250000 2021
was also muted. 200000
150000
Now for notes on a couple of our basket
100000
companies:
50000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
source: SHFE, Cochilco

Crown Mining (CWM.v): As promised above, a little coverage on CWM this week to reduce
the shame of not having talked about the stock as it zoomed during Q1. The NR out of CWM
last Thursday March 29th (6) announced the smooth passage of all votes at its AGM, and also
announced a name change, to “US Copper Corp”, which may be pretentious at this stage in its
corporate development, but at least it’s snappy (and may even help the sale). That process
should take a few weeks, expect an update.
Meanwhile, with the AGM done the CWM re-work of board and management is now complete
and they can get on with developing their Light’s Creek project in Plumas County CA USA. A big
project area of a reported 15 square miles, CWM is concentrating its efforts on three main
targets, namely the Superior and Engels old mines that worked between 1915 and 1930, then
the Moonlight deposit discovered later on and located nearby. Together, they normally refer to
the project as “Moonlight-Superior”. To date, the company hasn’t done much this year aside
raise half a million in funds and then waves its arms
in a couple of NRs, but that should change in May
when its budgeted seven hole drill program takes
place. That puts us on a assay NR timeline of
perhaps June, but more likely July for a potential
market catalyst assay NR (the holes aren’t long, but
the queues at the assays labs are).
Bottom line: The Q1 big winner without doing much,
we’ll get to hear more about CWM as the name
change and then the drill assays happen in the next
couple of months. Crown made the Copper Basket
list this year on the suggestion of a subscriber and it
was an easy one to add, small and with an intriguing little copper project with a good address.
Now, show time approaches and it’s one I’ll watch with interest.
Regulus Resources (REG.v): The news last week that REG would have to wait until at least
after the first round of the Peru Presidential election before it could start drilling at AntaKori was
predicted almost to the letter by this publication, what remains to be seen is exactly when REG
can get on-site and stay there with the drills turning. As for the share price reaction…
…sure enough, back down to the $1.00 line. Obviously, the groups that took over the trading
and marketing of REG last year not only wasted a ton of corporate G&A, but they are
committed to defend the Loonie line at REG. This presents an obvious trade set-up for those so
inclined, but this desk would also warn in the next breath about the dangers of picking up
pennies in front of road-rollers.
The Producer Basket
After thirteen weeks of 2021, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 11.33% to level stakes.
15

company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out Mkt Cap (U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 59.89 803.36 48.51 60.39 0.8%
2 Barrick GOLD 22.78 1779.04 35.65 20.04 -12.0%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 70.51 242.99 14.24 58.61 -16.9%
4 Kirkland Lake KL 41.27 272.984 9.44 34.58 -16.2%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 7.34 1260 8.61 6.83 -6.9%
6 Pan American PAAS 34.71 210.17 6.53 31.05 -10.5%
7 Endeavour Min EDV.to 29.62 246.2 5.29 25.79 -12.9%
8 B2Gold BTG 5.60 1064 4.66 4.38 -21.8%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 8.75 392.73 3.13 7.98 -8.8%
10 Pretium Res PVG 11.48 187.254 1.98 10.56 -8.0%
Prices in U$ except EDV.to (share price in CAD$ and mkt cap in approx USD) Port. avg -11.33%
Our Producer Basket registered a modest gain last week, with a mixed bag of four losers (NEM,
AEM, BTG, PVG) outweighed by six winners (GOLD, KL, KGC, PAAS, EDV.to, AGI). However, all
were slight moves on the week, the worst loss 3.95% at B2Gold, the best win 3.78% at
Endeavour. The overall effects were small and even GDX’s +0.72% performance on the week
was enough to out-perform our ten (B2Gold the issue).
The 2021 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and 4%
comparative to GDX control
0%
-4%
-8%
-12%
-16%
-20%
It’s the end of the first quarter, so as in the Copper Basket above you get the quarterly
comparative performance chart of our ten valiant basket components for 2021:
The 2021 Producer Basket components after 13 weeks
10%
source: NYSE/TSX, IKN calcs
5%
0.8%
0%
-5%
-10% -6.9% -8.0% -8.8%
-10.5%
-15% -12.0%-12.9%
-20%
-16.2%-16.9%
-25% -21.8%
NEM KGC PVG AGI PAAS GOLDEDV.to KL AEM BTG
The brutal, honest truth, no way did I expect to see only one of ten stocks green at end 1q21.
The current house “this is the time to be bullish” call is either off on its timing (likely) or plain
wrong, but there’s no escaping how it certainly does not fit with that chart. Three months is a
reasonable sample, I was too bullish on gold in 1q21. As for the basket stocks, well done NEM
as it consolidates at the top of the pile but even that performance is nothing to write home
about, the others range from mediocre to plain bad. It’s slightly unfair to point fingers, but this
desk views AEM, KL and GOLD as particularly disappointing
16
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The 2021 Producer Basket: Percentage difference between
GDX benchmark and basket (negative = IKN basket ahead)
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
basket 1.5%
gdx control
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
source: Google, IKN Calcs
ts1
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ht01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa
source: IKN calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq/TSX data

The Tiny Dogs
After thirteen weeks of 2021, the Tiny Dogs show a gain of 13.96% to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Antler Gold ANTL.v 0.205 61.348 12.88 0.21 2.4%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.045 163.975 8.20 0.05 11.1%
Constantine Met CEM.v 0.17 45.4 12.71 0.28 64.7%
Contact Gold C.v 0.115 240.757 24.08 0.100 -13.0%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.22 40 7.00 0.175 -20.5%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.045 230.79 18.46 0.08 77.8%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.240 106.241 19.12 0.18 -25.0%
QC Copper QCCU.v 0.315 105 18.90 0.18 -42.9%
Red Pine Expl RPX.v 0.400 95.341 70.55 0.74 85.0%
Warrior Gold WAR.v 0.090 91.818 8.26 0.09 0.0%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 13.97%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The basket average lost precisely 3.17% on the
Tiny Dogs, 2021 weekly tracker
20%
week, the drop fuelled by five losers (C.v,
18%
MTU.v, QCCU.v, RPX.v, WAR.v) beating out four 16%
winners (ANTL.v, CEM.v, GDP.v, MTU.v), with 14%
12%
just one stock unchanged on the week (BAY.v). 10%
8%
6%
Constantine Metal Resources (CEM.v): Up
4%
nearly 22% on the week on the back of real 2%
news, the announcement (7) CEM has agreed a 0%
U$8.8m exploration budget for its Palmer
zinc/polymetal project in Southern coastal
Alaska, USA with its 50/50 partner, Japan’s
Dowa. With its gold assets now in a separate company (Highgold (HIGH.v), CEM gets to focus
on its flagship and with last year a near washout the program includes 6,000m of drilling that
should make headlines. However, instead of putting up its end of the budget CEM has elected
to dilute its ownership from the current 50.04% to “no less than 44%”:
A budget of US $8.8 million for the 2021 work program has been approved by the
Constantine Mining LLC Joint Venture, (“CMJV”) including plans for 6,000 meters of
drilling. Dowa Metals & Mining Alaska Ltd. has committed to fund the entire 2021 work
program which will result in dilution of Constantine’s CMJV interest. Dilution is pro-
rated according to expenditures and Constantine’s interest in the CMJV will be diluted
to no less than 44%. Constantine will remain as operator of the Project to oversee the
2021 work program.
This is bad news for CEM, as missing the funding window of 2020 and having to give up asset
ownership instead of funding its exploration from treasury is not the way shareholder get to
17
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source: IKN calcs, TSX data

benefit from discovery of re-rate upside. All the same, the market applauded the news and this
happened to the stock, (that looks like two new shareholders for the register to me)
However, context is required and as CEM has been a disappointing stock for many year, it will
need more than a three day rally to put the chart below back on course:
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It is possible that in the
future I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, but at the moment both my opinion and my wallet are strictly
neutral.
Regional politics
A LatAm Covid-19 update
I wish it weren’t so. The plan for 2021 was to quietly reduce coverage of the Covid-19 virus and
its effects in Latin America as the year got older, but here we are in month four and the virus is
back at making crisis-level front pages in several regional countries. As those coincide with
mining FDI countries, we get today’s return to the subject.
Brazil: The first thing to note is how Brazil’s own scientific community advise to ignore the
daily infections data, it’s an unreliable database an severely undercounts cases. Grimly, “deaths
are the only way” of keeping tabs of the now uncontrollable spread of the disease. So, here’s
that Worldometers chart of deaths as per yesterday Saturday:
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Daily totals of between 3,000 and 4,000 are suddenly the new horror normal, and there are
level-headed forecasts of 100,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Brazil in April 2021 alone.
Chile: A nasty surprise for everyone. Chile, the country with by far the best vaccine rollout in
the region, has been hit by a new wave of infections and last week ordered a strict two week
lockdown over around 80% of the country, including the capital and main population centre,
Santiago.
However and notably, Chile is going the same route as Peru (and many others) and has
expressly stated it will not close its industry down this time. That means copper, so aside the
potential for logistics bottlenecks the world’s number one producer country should keep
churning out the tonnes.
Peru: Sadly predicted by this desk, Peru this weekend announced March 2021 was its worst
ever month for infections and on the same day, announced a new record 294 deaths in a single
day. ICU units up and down the country are full, doctors are making “that arbitrage” decision
more frequently at provincial hospitals that are collapsing under the strain again. And all this
before Easter Weekend just finished (a happy one to you all) and next weekend’s mass cluster
event and accident waiting to happen, the Presidential and congressional elections.
To date, we haven’t expected Peru’s mining industry to be significantly affected by a wave of
Covid-19 infections in 2021. That may be changing, the chances of another strict and
nationwide lockdown are increasing by the day.
Mexico: Last week, Mexico came clean about its undercounting of Covid-19 related deaths and
added a cool 92,000 to the tally in one day, bringing the total number of Covid.19 related
deaths to 294,000. That’s not so far behind Brazil’s official total and with a third less population,
which tells two truths:
 Brazil’s horror death toll still undercounts reality.
 Mexico is another example of how Covid-9 + political populism kills. There’s no
coincidence in the way the three American countries led by hard-line populist leaders as
Covid-19 struck, namely the Brazil of Bolsonaro, the USA of Trump and the Mexico of
AMLO, have suffered far more than their neighbours and far more than was ever
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needed. Mo matter whether left or right, those governments and leaders who turn their
back on scientific advice have seen their countries pay a heavy price in excess and
unnecessary deaths and, sure enough, their under-performance compared to
neighbouring countries is now exacting a political toll. More on Mexico’ politics and how
an increasingly unpleasant AMLO is using mining to deflect from his government woes
in Regional Politics, below.
Nowhere more so than Brazil, where Jair Bolsonaro has started making international headlines
by firing his military leaders, moves last week that smack of a prelude to some sort of power
grab. As the events of November, December and then January 6th played out in The USA, with
the White House of the losing candidate (and soon to be ex-President) using its Big Lie to exert
increasing amounts of pressure on The USA’s Institutional apparati in order to rig the vote and
steal the election from its own people, it occurred how the same type of play in an
institutionally weaker LatAm country would have much more chance of success. Countries with
weak laws and constitutions and filled with corrupt officials from top to bottom are rip for such
abuse, one of the reasons The USA resisted the machinations of Trump with relative ease. US
politics may be a swamp and ugly to you, but it doesn’t suffer the ugly side of politics the way a
Brazil does, so seeing an increasingly cornered Jair Bolsonaro beginning to use a different but
equivalent Brazilian avenue of politic manoeuvres as Trump tried in The US, in Brazil’s case
some sort move toward a planned military coup and takeover of government, is more than
enough to send a chill down the spine.
Peru: A final Peru Presidential election campaign update
Today Sunday sees the last set of opinion polls allowed before the first round election, next
Sunday April 11th, which also brings the full Congressional election and the change of all 130
members (we certainly hope). There are other polls out today, but we feature the two
considered most reliable by the country, plus another of reputable standard. And for the record,
my job is made easier by the well-run aggregating website “Encuestas Peru” (8) from which the
charts are shame-facedly stolen.
Peru’s flagship pollster, IPSOS, leads the headlines today with this poll commissioned by Peru’s
newspaper of record La Republica (right wing) with this visual headline:
Next up, IEP has a good reputation and published this poll, commissioned by Peru’s other major
daily newspaper, the centrist La Republica:
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Finally, the IDICE pollster has been taking more regular snapshots of the developing campaign
than other houses, its final poll looks like this:
Taking the three polls as a whole, the major themes appear:
 The contest is very tight and predicting which two go to the ballotage is for gamblers,
not for seasoned political watchers.
 The late surge from economist and intellectual Hernando de Soto, who has moved
through to become a real contender for one of the two key run-off spots.
 The continued climb of Verónika Mendoza, who is the most obvious danger to all
mining and wider FDI bets on the country in the next five years.
 The continued top spot taken by Yonhy Lescano, who is now most likely to make it
through to round two.
 The decline and fall of Rafael López Aliaga, who has turned Perú off with his Trumpian
antics and has looked suspiciously drunk on the campaign trail on more than one
occasion. His debate performance was one of the worst of all candidates, too.
 Seeing Keiko Fujimori in top spot in one of the polls is likely misleading, the repeat call
from this desk regards her hard ceiling of support. She has the highest “anti-vote” of all
candidates and there’s little chance of momentum from undecided voters.
Opinion polls conclusion:: It cannot be stressed enough, this election is impossible to call. The
game in Peru this Easter weekend is to make your call on round two, with political
commentators large and small now placing their bets on who makes it into the run-off, their
forecasts given with varying degrees of certainty. For what it’s worth, anyone making any type
of 100% confident prediction in this election is likely a liar at heart, but there are probables and
possibles so I will offer my tentative scenario too. First up, Yonhy Lescano is a probable to
make it to round two. Others can call it a lock, I will desist from going that far but his vote
support has solidified and he’s now probably 3% to 5% over the field. If Lescano’s Peru-special-
brew of social conservatism and leftist political policies makes it to round two, then a right wing
candidate is probable to join him in the run-off. That would mean the late-surging Hernando de
Soto, or George Forsyth or the seemingly fading Rafael López Aliaga. However, Verónika
Mendoza may again put the cat among the pigeons. She performed well during her leg of last
week’s three-day live TV debate event between the candidates, and while it’s less likely to see
two left-leaning tickets make round two, any late weakness in Lescano’s vote would be to the
advantage of “Vero”.
We’re now in the quiet week before the vote, with no campaigning allowed, politically biased
editorials in newspapers frowned upon and then no alcohol allowed served or sold over the
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election weekend. All something of an anachronism in 2021, as Peru gets drunk at home next
weekend after getting a big delivery from its online marketplace service having read all the
campaign and op-ed material they could ever want via their preferred social media (normally
and in local phonetics that’s Feibu, Wazap, InHaGa and Tuiteh). Also, rules permit polls
commissioned by private foreign companies and even before the world moved online, those last
minute polls always somehow leaked out to Peru as well. Expect a mountain of online last-
minute polls between this Sunday and next, half of them false.
As for next weekend, the likelihood for another chaotic election with a contested result in The
Americas is sky-high. Aside the close nature of the race and the number of undecided voters
that could easily tip the balance one way or another, there’s the little matter of Peru’s voting
system, which demands a “table” of randomly selected voters to staff and collate all votes made
by the locality assigned to them (batches of up to 2000 voters, depending on the location).
With the lack of vaccines and the renewed rise of Covid-19 infections in Peru, there’s much
trepidation among those chosen this year. The government-level fear is that if too many people
decide not to “perform their civic duty” and instead decide to pay the fine (around U$70), they
will not be able to open the voting tables until later in the day (or at all), thereby severely affect
the democratic process (and leaving it open to attack from any losing candidate, of course).
The Covid-19 system also demands that to avoid conglomerations, certain groups of voters
must arrive at certain hours of the day so those assigned an early hour may find themselves
first in a long wait, then causing a backlog that clogs the rest of the day. There’s no way we get
a definitive result on the night of Sunday, as the field is so tightly grouped and Peru’s socio-
economics also play with its geography. That’s a mouthful of words to say that all the
candidates, particularly the left wing and hard right wing populist candidates, have their
enclaves of strong support dotted up and down the country, often in remote locations. Those
take time to collate into the official results and in this race, every vote will count.
The bottom line: Probably Lescano, with possibly De Soto (as Peru voters loves a late surger),
but the potential of the nightmare scenario of Verónika Mendoza in round two is alive and her
quiet rise in the polls cannot be ignored. However and be clear, I wouldn’t bat an eyelid if none
of those three names make Round Two, all real forecasts are off until the second round . In any
case, the best trade set-ups and scenarios only happen in the run-off and, given the right
opportunities, we run those next weekend. Much depends on who makes the second round, but
if our tentative Lescano/De Soto scenario prospers, Peru is a buy again.
A call on next weekend’s Ecuador run-off vote
Next Sunday April 11th is the day Ecuador gets its next President and the current one, Lenin
Moreno, must b quietly quaking in his boots. The dauphin of his erstwhile political colleague
and now sworn enemy, Rafael Correa, is seven points ahead in three of the four major polls out
last week (with the only other one being the dubious and always, Lasso-skewed CEDATOS,
which has Lasso in an improbable 3% lead.
Next weekend, expect Andrés Arauz to be declared the winner and President-elect. In making
this call, this desk defies recent evidence and boldly predicts that least one election in the
current Americas cycle will go off without a hitch and with its predicted result. Not true for
Bolivia, Argentina, The USA, Ecuador Pt1, and I shudder to think how next week goes for Peru,
but true for Ecuador on April 11th.
Nexa leads the home office future of Brazil and Peru
In a first certainly for South American mining and likely further afield, Brazil’s big polymetals
miner Nexa (NEXA) (NEXA.to) last week announced (9) its office staff in São Paulo and Belo
Horizonte Brazil, as well as Lima Peru, would have the option to work from home on a
permanent basis even after the pandemic has run its course. Employees like the idea ,with 83%
saying they prefer “an intensive remote work policy” and the company likes it, as they’ve done
their New Age fuzzy math and decided that the move saves 250 tonnes of CO2 from going into
the atmosphere (and they’ll want their tax credit accordingly, of course). Employees adopting
the scheme get help in setting up a home office (e.g. ergonomic seating) and the company
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sharing the cost of the household internet connection. Meanwhile, the company is re-equipping
its physical offices to accommodate a total staff roster now expected to attend the physical
office two days per week, on a per capita average basis.
Mexico: AMLO continues his attacks on mining companies
Following on from coverage of last and other weeks, here’s an example wire report on the
Wednesday press conference given by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) (10),
while hosting Bolivian President Luis Arce on a State visit:
"We are analysing the possibility of having a bigger participation in the exploitation of
lithium," Lopez Obrador told reporters, noting that "too many" mining concessions had
been handed out before he took power at the end of 2018.
This, he said, had occurred "not to produce gold, silver, copper or lithium, but basically,
though it may sound incredible, to speculate."
That’s a calm EngLang bizwire report, the Mexican pro-AMLO press corps decided to report that
event is far more strident terms. Suffice to say, President AMLO has not desisted in using
mining companies in Mexico as a piñata but this time, pushback and reactions didn’t take long,
as the gloves are now off and Mexico’s mining industry has left the “be quiet and it might go
away” strategy long behind. For example the always assertive pro-mining op-ed in El Sol de
Hermosillo (11), which voices the Camimex line well and in this case, pointed to how ignorant
AMLO is about the whole issue. El Sol noted AMLO’s own words during the infamous presser on
the 120 million hectares of concessions granted to mining companies, “Let’s hope they
recuperate all that surface area.” Mexico’s mining concessions are of course all subterranean
and hold no surface rights whatsoever but as we know to society’s general cost, facts are of
secondary importance to a loud-mouthed populist. El Sol finished its blistering op-ed (for those
with Spanish language abilities, well worth a read) in style:
“…the mining industry is being and will continue to be attacked by the President,
because in today’s Mexico under AMLO one attacks, one criticizes and defames
instead of working for the development of the country.”
You can denigrate AMLO in many ways, some of them absolutely just in the view of this desk,
but you cannot call him stupid. He may be naïve about how mining concessions work, but he’s
a whipsmart, old-school political animal and a survivor in the world of LatAm politics, he didn’t
reach the top of his slippery pole by sheer luck. Therefore, make no mistake about the ugly
strategy AMLO has decided to use, he is deliberately using his country’s mining industry as a
political piñata in order to deflect attention away from the results abysmal of his government’s
Covid-9 strategy (and it’s a stretch to call it even that). AMLO is deliberately shooing away
Foreign Direct Investment in his country’s mining industry and creating a toxic environment for
all mining companies, but Canadian mining companies are his carefully chosen targets. He is
doing this and causing long-term damage to one of his country’s most important primary
industry sectors near-term political advantage. No matter how well or badly Canada’s mining
companies in Mexico have behaved over the years*, there’s no way they deserve a public
flogging from a defensive, lefty President who has taken the issue and twisted it into a cynical,
media-powered sideshow to divert attention from his own shortcomings. All in all, a disgusting
display.
*Mis dos centavitos, guey: They behave generally very well, but there are a few repeat bad actors. The industry shares
at least some responsibility for not self-governing and weeding them out, but that’s another story for another day. With
rare exceptions, Canadian mining companies do not deserve the treatment they are getting from AMLO..
Market Watching
Harte Gold (HRT.to) redux
After the note in IKN618 last weekend on this potential turnaround operator in which the
decision was to wait and watch in 2021 even after the recent corporate re-working, your author
was of course interested to see whether the market agreed (we all have our own pet neuroses,
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I don’t mind admitting mine):
HRT is 3% down over the two week period that includes the deal announcement and the
interest. It’s UNCH compared to GDXJ. It saw volume drop back substantially last week as
investors took a better look at the deal and saw less immediate return. In other words, the
market agrees with the house call and while it’s certainly a stock to keep on the radar (e.g. Q1
production numbers soon), other make more appeal for the moment.
Thoughts arising from the failed floating of Alliant Gold
The news last week that their deal to sell the Ana Paula project in Guerrero State, Mexico to the
nominally private concern AP Mining (for $30m cash, plus shares and an NSR) makes official a
deal that was a dead man walking ever since the AP Mining financial backers, Pinehurst Capital
II (PINH.p, a Canadian capital pool company), pulled out on March 10th. Here’s AR.to’s CEO,
Pete Dougherty (12):
"Our current growth strategy is focused around the Magino project and secondarily
around the Cerro del Gallo project. We felt we had entered into a win-win agreement
on the sale of Ana Paula whereby we could bring some value forward and also
maintain upside to the project through an equity ownership and royalty. Unfortunately,
the acquiring company was not able to fulfill its obligations and after extending the
agreement once already, we feel we are better off pursuing other options for Ana Paula
at this time. We believe Ana Paula has the ability to be a foundational asset in time and
are excited about having exposure to the project. We expect to be in a position to
publish an update pre-feasibility study for the Ana Paula project during the second
quarter of 2021, which we feel will demonstrate a relatively low capital cost, low
operating cost, high-grade open pit project with future underground potential."
In other words, It’s still up for sale.
AP Mining is (or perhaps was) Bruce Bragagnolo, who has followed the Ana Paula project
through several companies over the years like a lost dog. This time, his plan was to spin it into
his own junior, call it Alliant Gold and develop it into a mine (or something). For this, AP Mining
approached Argonaut and AR.to was all-too happy to do a deal and get the über-high political
risk Ana Paula off their books. However, that was September and when the hot market started
to cool, the problems began. First we had all sides agreeing on January 4th to an extension of
the deal window in order to satisfy terms, then the news early March which was caused by the
most direct of reasons: they couldn’t raise enough money. Not only has gold’s market sparkle
worn off, but the newsflow out of Mexico mining does not align with FDI and it’s no surprise
that previously soft-offered capital decide to pull out.
The bonanza times of 2q20 and 3q20, when any old company or private mine could get
financed to listing, are now history. However, the window gets tighter for harder sell stories
such as Ana Paula (not just the politics, the rock has refractory issues) which is something to
keep in mind. Financiers are getting cold feet over ESG, that is not good news for the LatAm
mining and developer sector. As an example, the aforementioned Pinehurst Capital II (PINH.p)
is still keen to go public. Since walking away from AP Mining and Ana Paula, it has turned its
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attention to SMBI, a private concern with the Silver Bullet mine in Arizona USA (13). That deal
looks as though it will happen, but even here PINH has asked for and received an extra month
from the vendors in order to raise the capital and close the deal (now set to close April 30th).
Even the hot combo of silver + AZ USA is finding it tough to raise a few million in the pool
market.
To wrap up, this is not the only example of new exploreco failing to get their dream listing on
the back of their speculative project as the market cools. For example, thoughts turn to
Mantaro Silver, the hastily thrown-together junior that wanted to list on the TSXV and raise
cash for its silver project in Centrail Peru (that have “best sold to a gringo while the market is
hot” written all over them). Their poor execution of the prospectus and offering stage meant
the company’s plans hit big delays at the wrong time; now as they re-start the IPO process
(14), the market is a lot tougher and it’s telling that the original CEO (looking for an easy
payola) has now pulled out.
Anticipated 1q21 production numbers
The real mining world, i.e. the one that exists no matter which way the world moves their stock
prices, has arrived at an important moment in this current cycle. Operating mining companies
are about to start telling us about their 1q21 performances, starting with the normal spate of
production NRs and following with the 1q21 financials, to mid-May, that will sort the wheat
from the chaff on the key 2021 issue of cost creep/cost control.
First up it’s the optional production report (some companies prefer to announce all data with
their financials these days) and as usual there will be plenty to choose from. Each to their own
of course, but this short piece today exists to outline the companies high up on my personal
watching list. They aren’t the same as the normal industry watcher who cares most about
Barrick, Newmont and the other big companies, here eyes fix on the focus sector and for
potential trade windows. That means smaller producers, it also means our primary objective is
to identify out/under-performers and act accordingly. Therefore and in no particular order
(aside SAND at the top), eight producers that have my eye into 1q21 production report season:
Sandstorm Gold (SAND): The sales number at SAND comes early in the season and you may
even know them if you read these words on Monday morning. While not owning or covering
SAND at the moment, as its sale figure is made up by mostly gold(silver) sales in mostly The
Americas it gives a reasonable proxy on how mines up and down the continent have been
delivering. SAND has exposure to Santa Elena, Relief Canyon, Cerro Moro, Fruta del Norte,
Aurizona and other mines of interest (e.g. in Africa, Houndé and Karma).
Fiore Gold (F.v): There’s a growing feeling in the back of my mind that I may have made a
mistake in selling Fiore Gold (F.v) when I did, but in order to make a more informed decision
I’ll need this 1q21. Not just the upcoming production numbers in this case however, as its
case rests largely on keeping a lid on costs while ramping back to the levels of production we
know that Pan can offer. Therefore in this case any pre-announcement numbers of
production, sales or top line revenues in April are half the story and I’m not going to make a
new buy/hold/sell decision until May.
Wesdome Gold (WDO.to): The reason to watch is for potential weakness, as the company has
guided to over 100k this year but that allows for back-end bias. If the market sees a low
number on a negative day, we could get our bargain entry point after all. Usefully, WDO also
normally provides preliminary sales data in ounces and Canadian Dollars.
Pan American Silver (PAAS): Again not a covered or owned at this desk (aside from the
Producer Basket), again as being quite literally a pan-American mining company of silver and
gold it provides a bellwether in many key jurisdictions, from Argentina and Peru to Mexico, US
and Canada.
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to): First and foremost, because I own some shares and they have
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been running well. Also, CMMC in recent quarters has been hitting the straps and reporting
increasingly impressive quarters, we’ll want that to continue as the company embarks on its
2021 production growth plans and then operations expansions, further down the line. An
example of how Q1 will provide big clues for the medium-term future of companies.
Pretium Resources (PVG): This company has always had large questions marks hanging over
its head. Quite right too, this started as an idea that raised hundreds of millions of dollars and
finished as quite a different operation, but despite morphing of VOK to its lower grading,
higher throughput machine of today the company has also made a lot of money from its
ounces. Even after the head grade dilution compared to the Feasibility Study, they are still
high grade tonnes and we’re now in 2021, with a company being open and more honest
about its long-term future (now that all the capex is in the past). What PVG needs is
operational regularity and to show potential yet still-sceptical buyers that it can churn out
forecast ounces at forecast costs. If they do that in Q1, expect the talk of M&A to start around
this name once again (for the 8th of 10th time). If they do the same in 2q21 and 3q21, the talk
will be loud.
Harte Gold (HRT.to): Subject of last week’s main note, the top line production number will
likely determine cash cost as well, as the fixed cost element of this mine is high. I’ll make no
further decision on HRT for a while, but all information gladly gathered as there’s every
chance this develops into a trade.
New Gold (NGD): The stock I own most affected by its production results, in its bad years (the
ones chronicled on the blog) you’d see the price zoom on the production number, only to sag
when the financial reality of the company was made known later. Special focus on Rainy River
grade, throughput and recovery levels, in a perfect world the impression I want to come away
with is a mine running on rails.
Those and others of course, that’s not an exclusive list but it does cover the stocks at the
centre of the house Q1 radar.
Conclusion
IKN619 is done, we end with bullet points:
 Real, meaningful changes at Minera IRL are now less “sooner the better” and more
“soon or never”, the share price needs the support of a change in CEO but instead,
we’re getting the same diet of obfuscation and deception as ever. The publishing of its
annuals leaves no real impediment
 Gold has performed well recently, a consolidation at current levels would be welcome
before it moves higher on longer-term influences. Gold does not live or die on T10
yields alone.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Mark
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Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBAKY_bEmH8
(2) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/copper-mountain-announces-pricing-us-120000088.html
(3) https://www.cumtn.com/site/assets/files/4380/cmmc_investor_presentation_april_2021_2.pdf
(4) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/minera-alamos-selects-mining-contractor-110000809.html
(5) https://www.reuters.com/article/global-metals-idUSL1N2LU0L4
(6) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crown-mining-announces-agm-results-200000722.html
(7) https://www.constantinemetals.com/news/2021/constantine-announces-us-8.8-million-budget-for-2021-palmer-
copper-zinc-silver-gold-project-southeast-alaska/
(8) https://www.encuestas.com.pe/
(9) https://pressperu.com/nexa-comunica-modalidad-de-teletrabajo-permanente-para-todos-sus-colaboradores/
(10) https://www.miningweekly.com/article/mexico-eyes-bigger-role-in-lithium-industry-sees-speculation-in-mining-
concessions-2021-03-25
(11) https://www.elsoldehermosillo.com.mx/analisis/conversatorios-mineros-el-confeti-y-el-terco-6542053.html
(12) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/argonaut-gold-strengthens-management-team-110000047.html
(13) https://www.silverbulletmines.com/
(14) https://mailchi.mp/ecec7875aadb/mantaro-silver-march-29
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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