IKN #618Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 618, March 28th 2021
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, The week ahead, The week gone, A quiet blog.
Fundamental Analysis: A fundamental report on Harte Gold (HRT.to).
Stocks to Follow: Cartier Resources (ECR.v), Minera IRL (MIRL.cse) Minera Alamos (MAI.v),
New Gold (NGD).
Copper Basket: Overview, C3 Metals (CCCM.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Kirkland Lake (KL).
Tiny Dogs: Overview, Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v).
Regional Politics: Peru Presidential election update, Brazil Covid-19 update, Mexico: AMLO
versus the mining companies, Chile and the royalty on mining, Ecuador Presidential election
update.
Market Watching: Excelsior Mining (MIN.to) Q4 and 2021 year-end financials, The Norsemont
Mining (NOM.cse) story changes again, Those Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) drill assays.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
“
In today’s edition
 Today’s main even is a report on Harte Gold (HRT.to), with less emphasis on its well-
trodden asset and development story at Sugar Zone, more about the recent corporate
financial moves that are designed to get this faltering company back on track. We
crunch numbers, we have opinions, today’s main Fundies section.
 Last weekend these pages were calling bunkum on the rising bearish narrative in
copper. The metal promptly dropped further and even broke under the psychologically
important U$4.00/lb level on Thursday, prompting calls of “broken chart” from people
who cannot find Shanghai on a map. The rebound on Friday must have surprised them,
in The Copper Basket we note the way inventories are flagging the real story in China.
 If you are looking for good news from any of the LatAm region’s major mining
jurisdictions, do not read Regional Politics this week as the rise of Resource Nationalism
is now keenly felt in Chile, Peru and Mexico. Not only that, but in Mexico its President
AMLO has decided to wrap himself in his flag and use the mining industry as his latest
piñata.
 There’s been some sort of corporate movement at Minera IRL (MIRL.cse) and not befor
time, too. However, we need the full story and not half-measures so the way forward
will be to await word from the company (and any other actors) before coming to any
new trade decision. The official stance is Do Not Sell Your Shares and if that changes
you’ll get a Flash Update during the week, but next weekend will certainly have more
on the company (assuming it releases news). In today’s Stocks to Follow notes.
1

The week ahead
With this year’s Semana Santa falling relatively early in the calendar, it’s safe to say that a lot
has happened since the last one but all the same, it’s Easter week again and along with
religious festivities of all types (it’s Passover as well, among other matters), we pay attention to
the opening hours of the major markets for the days to come:
 USA Markets (NYSE etc): Closes Friday April 2nd, re-opens Monday April 5th.
 Canada Markets (TSX etc): Closes Friday April 2nd, re-opens Monday April 5th.
 UK Markets (LSE etc): Closes Friday April 2nd, re-opens Tuesday April 6th (i.e.
closed Monday 5th as well).
Also for your calendar, Wednesday marks the end of the 2021 Q1 period and volatile quarters
cause more window dressing for stocks (not just mining), then finally Friday we get the US BLS
jobs report into a closed market that can react next Monday, if it wants. Calculated Risk (1) has
the current consensus at +565,000 NFP jobs added and a headline unemployment rate that
drops to 6.0%.
The week gone
“Those whom the gods wish to destroy, they first make mad.”
Greek mythology regarding Cassandra
At least we were mentally prepared for gold price weakness, but last week’s drop in gold a)
really wasn’t that bad b) and saw a faster
rebound than I for one expected. This chart of
GLD versus SLV does the proxy on gold and
silver trading over the last ten days, and we see
any murmur in gold immediately bought back.
Not the same story in silver, which first followed
the broad markets lower and then failed to rally
with them later week.
One of the lines used in the constant and inane
market promotion of silver online in this modern
world is that the metal is “leveraged to gold”. At
least we agree on one matter. However, the
buyers supporting gold are not working Wall St.
Bullion stocks at the ETF dropped by another
15.16 metric tonnes (mt) to finish at 1,036.62mt this weekend and you have to go back to April
21st 2020 to find its vaults emptier than that.
GLD gold holdings, 2020/2021 to date (metric tonnes)
1400
1350
1300
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
2
91/21/13 02/1/02 02/2/9 02/2/92 02/3/02 02/4/9 02/4/92 02/5/91 02/6/8 02/6/82 02/7/81 02/8/7 02/8/72 02/9/61 02/01/6 02/01/62 02/11/51 02/21/5 02/21/52 12/1/41 12/2/3 12/2/32 12/3/51
mt
source: SPDR GLD data

7.50 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2020 & 2021 YTD
7.40
7.30
7.20
7.10
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
6.20
6.10
6.00
5.90
5.80
3
13/21 51/1 03/1 41/2 92/2 51/3 03/3 41/4 92/4 41/5 92/5 31/6 82/6 31/7 82/7 21/8 72/8 11/9 62/9 11/01 62/01 01/11 52/11 01/21 52/21 9/1 42/1 8/2 32/2 01/3 52/3
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
Our inventory/price ratio stock is flashing the same “negative on Wall St” signal hard now, the
drop to 6.39X on Friday confirming its move away from the nominally neutral 6.5X. In plain
English, it means large financial entities are liquidating their bullion. That’s not necessarily a
death sentence for the price of gold, but until the financial world re-aligns with the arguments
to own gold and starts net purchasing again gold gets its headwind. However, it’s scant solace
for mining equity traders, as last week was harder on the miners than the metal and the riskier
the company, the bigger the problem as witnessed by the 0.64% week-over week drop in the
main gold bullion ETF (GLD), the respective drops of 3.3% and 5.5% in the miner ETFs GDX
and GDXJ.
The bottom line to last week: It’s one thing to predict a temporary soft period, another to
experience it and at moments like last week are those when you wonder why you don’t try to
trade more aggressively around such market moments. The continued selling of bullion from
Wall St is understandable but also an issue, but overall it was a half-hearted attack and come
Friday a rebound was already in play. Gold came under pressure but rebounded quickly and I’ll
be happy if the house “sub-1.7k gold” call continues to be wrong, however it will need GLD to
revert its current inventory tendencies to push gold meaningfully higher; without that indicator,
appetite in the western world remains low.
A quiet blog
The inquiry mails are greatly appreciated, but also unnecessary. FWIW I agree that the blog
has been quiet in the last week or so , but it’s also likely to stay quiet (in post frequency at
least) for another week or two. Nothing is untoward, simply a couple of legal, decent and
productive non-mining matters taking your author’s time. The IKN Weekly remains unaffected
and normal open blog service will be resumed as soon as (etc).
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
A fundamentals report on Harte Gold (HRT.to)
The news earlier this month, that New Gold (NGD) has taken a 14.9% strategic investment
position in Harte Gold (HRT) by buying 154.9m shares for C$24.8m, perked HRT’s stock price
and also interest in the company, as did last week’s 4q20 financials which showed the company
squeezing out a net profit from the period (though cash flow is still firmly negative). As a result,
HRT has come up on a lot of people’s radars as a potential turnaround story and interesting
investment option for the year ahead, mine most definitely included.

Therefore, today we take a closer look at HRT and while we make mention of its chequered
past and exploration upside potential for the future, the main job is to crunch the numbers on
the company and see whether there’s a trade in the offing for we retail. We begin with a look at
the corporate structure:
Shares out: 1039.87m
Options: 42.794m
Warrants: 98.081m
RSUs/DSUs: 18.327
Fully diluted shares: 1,199.07m
Current share price: C$0.17
Market Cap: C$176.78m
Approx cash per S/O: 2c
All prices are in Canadian States Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.80=CAD$1
Overview
One of the classic modern mining tales of woe goes like this: The small junior develops its gold
mine project and raises capital to build the mine. While relying mainly on equity financing in its
development stage, for the capex it takes debt on board by going to bankers, instos and
assorted financing houses. All seems fine and the build-out happens, but when operations
begin there are enough teething problems to set the company back into financial problems. At
that point, another set of problems arise inside the company or, on the outside, markets take
an unfavourable turn and something like this happens to your company stock:
Harte Gold (HRT.to) is hardly the first junior to have made a mess of the transition from
exploreco/developer to producer, neither is it the only junior operator in the history of mining to
have swamped itself in unmanageable debt. However, at least operationally it seems to have
got itself back on track and with the financial deals done on top of the company last week, HRT
may have legitimate claims as a “2021 Turnaround Stock” and a company that can run the
same type of corporate clean-up that we’ve seen in other places under high gold prices (e.g.
NGD itself). As these turnaround-type stories have been good to The IKN Weekly over the years
(NGD, F.v, GPL recently, or for an earlier example SAND in 2017/2018 comes to mind), the
financial re-working at HRT gained this desk’s attention.
Some good news is that HRT is a well-covered stock in the Canadian mining sector and several
brokerages have formal coverage and their own opinions. That’s good for you the investor to
get different viewpoints. Also good are for the latest corporate presentations (2) and note that
word in plural, as HRT usefully has published two PDFs in the last week, one to outline the
financial re-workings and another to cover the Q4 results and 2021 guidance. As usual, the
information presented in corporate presentations comes after a good polishing, all the same
there is plenty of hard data in the recent HRT PDFs and they are highly recommended reading
for anyone interested in this trade.
This report is not going to concentrate on its past failings under previous management, neither
will it dwell on any of the personalities involved in the company or try to assassinate said
4

characters. However, background is required to know where we got today so we join the story
in early 2019 with the capex spent and the mine now apparently ramping toward commercial
production. However, along with lower than expected production in 4q18 and 1q19 the
company announced in April 2019 that (3)“…(a)dvanced discussions are underway with Appian
and Sprott (ottonote: its lenders at the time, Sprott is now paid down) to refinance existing
facilities with existing and/or potential new lenders, the Company expects a conclusion to be
reached on these discussions by the end of April.” That was the moment the market realized
something was wrong and by the time the 1q19 results were known, the financial blow-up was
already getting IKN blog posts.
We move to August 2019 and CEO Stephen Roman resigns suddenly. Appian takes over, its
board nominee setting up a committee to find a new CEO and CFO (4). Then in October 2019
HRT announced (5) two new board members, including Joe Conway who would later be moved
to company Chair. As a personal aside, this desk can only hope Conway learned from the
financial mess he made of Primero Mining (ex-P.to). I remember his participation at a Round
Table fireside chat event, during which he sneered in the most arrogant manner at the CEOs of
other juniors for the way they handle their companies’ financial affairs, about two years before
his company’s financials collapsed around his ears. Next up November 2019 and new CEO Sam
Coetzer arrives (along with a new COO) (6) CEO Coetzer arrived with a clear brief; After doing a
similar turnaround job at Golden Star, his was the rescue mission. Then came 2020, HRT added
a CFO in February (7) but then (of course) everything changed again. The Covid-19 pandemic
and global woes also hit HRT and in September 2020 we got to read about (8) “…the
appointment of Frazer Bourchier as President, CEO and Director of the Board of Directors,
effective September 21, 2020. Mr. Bourchier will replace Sam Coetzer, who is stepping down
from the position of President and CEO, for personal reasons.” They also announced the
departure of the COO that day, as Covid-9 restrictions were making his life (home USA, work
Canada) impossible. I understand that Coetzer did indeed leave his executive role on the best
of terms and the personal situation is genuine. He is still a board member and the new CEO
continues to heap praise on the Job Coetzer did, with his role to continue and develop the
turnaround.
Which brings us to today, as the last six months have been relatively drama-free for HRT. They
have mined two quarters at a mine site profit and the last two weeks have seen the changes in
its financial structure (see IKN617) and then last week’s year-end financial report. Which means
this note on the company can get on with the real job, as from now.
The Sugar Zone property
HRT’s flagship asset is the Sugar Zone concession and mine in Northern Ontario. The
concession covers a massive 35km of prospective Archean Greenstone (the really old rocks in
which Canada often finds metals) and roughly in the centre of the holding, its Sugar Zone Mine.
This is currently an 800tpd operation and has been in production for over two years.
I chose this map from the HRT website to cover a deliberately brief overview, because it
highlights one of several discoveries and/or targets HRT has developed on its property, aside
5

for its mine. There are more to the North and whle cutting this short, it’s important to
emphasize that one of the chief attractions for NGD and its recent strategic investment must
surely be the exploration upside held at the company. However, the reason HRT operates today
is its Sugar Zone mine and here’s its mineral endowment as per the latest update:
Sugar Zone contains just over 1.6m oz gold in all categories, with almost half that total in the
high confident probable mineral reserve category. There are two main reserve zones, Sugar
Zone and Middle (with others likely in the near future). Therefore, even with no further
resource discovery, HT has plenty of mine life at its current 60k annual production run rate or
even its future 100k designs. With that, we cut what could be a long section on HRT’s mine
short so if you want more, there’s plenty more on the mine at the company website (or in other
fundies reports on the company). We are doing financials today, people.
Production history and 2021 guidance
We move to consider the production at Sugar Zone and here’s the skinny: Its 2018 and 2019
were disasters of its own making, its 2020 was a disaster imposed upon it, but HRT’s recent Q4
production total of 10,835 oz gold was a big step in the right direction. However, it’s going to
take another couple of big step-ups, plus an error-free 2021 if its going to make its own
guidance, set last week at 60,000 to 65,000 oz gold in 2021.
Now the details. Along with the headline guidance, HRT told us it plans to get its mill to 800tpd
during Q1 and keep it running at that rate for the rest of the year, while processing average
7.7g/t Au rock. Therefore, it’s going to take an impressive expansion in mineral throughput…
HRT: Average daily mill throughput, per qtr
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
6
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 tse12q1 tse12q2 tse12q3 tse12q4
tpd
source: Company filings
…then this type of consistent head grade, over 7.0 g/t all 2021 and at the planned 7.7 g/t for
most of it…
HRT: Mill head grade (g/t Au)
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 tse12q1 tse12q2 tse12q3 tse12q4
g/t Au
source: company filings, IKN ests

…then recoveries that maintain their current high 93% to 95% levels (our model assumes a flat
94% per quarter) to produce this type of quarterly result:
HRT: Gold oz produced, per qtr
7
6745
4577
9606
7357 7108
0
8126
53801
75031
22361 75761 75761
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 tse12q1 tse12q2 tse12q3 tse12q4
Oz Au/qtr
source: company filings, IKN ests
We cut HRT some slack in the current quarter via throughput and grade, pitching production at
just over 13,000 oz gold, a midpoint between where they were in 2020 and where they need to
be in order to make guidance. However, from that point they need to run 800tpd and 7.7g to
produce over 16,000 oz per quarter, with our calculated 2021 total above coming to 62,892 oz
gold, roughly the midpoint of their guidance. I’m not saying they cannot do it, in fact the
company on its conference call was the epitome of confidence about its targets for 2021. What
I am saying is that they seem to be pitching too close to perfection for my liking, for example is
very difficult to imagine an annual production beat of over 65k oz without a major factor
changing.
Financials overview
Less ounces, more dollars and as the subject is HRT, with one of the first financial charts to
consider is this one:
HRT.to: Shares Out
8.034 1.444 8.454 6.894 8.945 3.275 4.675 4.185 7.995 2.006 6.406 9.356 0.776 0.776
2.648 0.368 6.478
9.9301
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400 300
200
100
0
61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 tse12q1
source: company filings/IKN ests
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HRT is guilty of the crime of dilution, previous management profligate with the issuance of
shares and happy to accept cash for new issuances at what seems like the drop of a hat. While
highlighting its woes in a series of posts on the open blog in 2019 and early 2020, I nicknamed
HRT “The New Metanor” for the way it was selling shares and in this post from February 2020
(9), noted the ‘Lake Superior Dilution Strategy” of its $27m financing which ballooned the count
to 842m. Since then it has only got worse, the latest corporate re-working has come with its
own slug of equity, HRT now has a cool 1.04 billion (with a B) shares out and would probably
feel more at home on the Australian stock exchange. However, note the new share total means
Appian’s previously purchased 206.716m shares now cover 19.9% of the new total, from a
previous 24.4% control position. Appian is probably happy about that, as would be any
potential suitor for the company…such as NGD, for example.
We move on. Next up we check recent financial results, starting with the simple check on mine
revenues versus mine costs:

HRT.to: Operations overview
8
1.8
5.01 3.21
1.9
9.41 1.51 5.41
0.21
7.51
1.11
7.3 7.2
2.21
0.7
0.22
3.21
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4
CAD$m
revenues Prod. costs
source: company filings/IKN ests
We know 2019 was awful, we know 2020 was bashed on the head, so seeing that gross margin
for 4q20 is a sight for sore eyes at HRT. Sadly, those production costs are not the only
expenses at HRT, as this next chart shows. The above “Prod. Costs” make up less than half of a
pile that reached over C$30m in 4q20, including an unreasonably heavy G&A and the ongoing
Care & Maintenance charges (which should be one-time).
HRT.to: Costs overview
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4
CAD$m
Prod. costs depletion
Royalty/Sales Exp Care&Maint
G&A Expl & Eval
|
Source: HRT.to filings, IKN ests
But that’s not all, folks! Once you have an Operating Earnings number, next we go Below The
Line and the financial expenses at HRT are eye-watering for the size of company.
C$m HRT: Financial Expenses, per quarter
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
source: Company filings
-15
1q18 2q18 3q18 4q18 1q19 2q19 3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20
They include effects on its hedge program and debt servicing and while the Q4 period gets a
non-cash return, the typical net drag on the
HRT.to: Net Earnings
company has been between C$10m and C$15m 5 1.7
per quarter. This is the major clue as to why 0
HRT needed to run its corporate refi this -5
month, that level of financing burden is simply -10 -7.1
unsustainable. It’s the main cause of this -15 -11.2 -11.6 -10.6 -11.8
-13.4
(right). We remind readers that HRT declared -20 -15.2 -16.1
commercial production on January 1st, 2019, so -25 -22.9
any losses before that date are understandable. -30 -25.9
But since then we’ve had eight straight quarters -35 -29.8
-40
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4
source: company filings
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of financial losses (including 4q20 which returned a net profit on accountancy magic, not on
cash in treasury) and what’s more, the quarter in which the company closed down production
completely looks par for the course!
Time to switch gear and move to balance sheet items, where the previous damage wrought on
the company shows up most clearly. However, as stated above we’re not dwelling on deep past
errors, the task at hand is to see how HRT is managing to turn its financial issues around. The
assets breakdown chart is one of the most innocuous of the whole set, perhaps cash looks a
little low but the ratio of items in that chart and its general asset value growth in the last few
periods are what we’d want to see.
HRT: Assets breakdown, per qtr
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
9
71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 tse12q1
C$m
fixed
other current
cash
source: company filings, IKN ests
That’s because HRT’s issues aren’t in the assets ledger. We know they have built a mine, the
problem is how much it cost. Liabilities look like this:
HRT.to: Liabilities breakdown per qtr
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 tse12q1
source: company filings
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LT liab
current liab
The good news is that the debt pile is set to drop for the second quarter in succession, the bad
news is everything else and for a breakdown of main part of that welter burden, here’s a
screenshot of the relevant filings note:
The $10.7m in leases isn’t much of an issue. The rest…ouch, with that $26.427m outstanding
as per this year. Clearly HRT was not in the position to pay it and something had to be done.
Hence the BNP refi and the NGD strategic investment. Here’s working capital and cash treasury,
both charts ugly as sin. The constant negative working capital speaks for itself, this is a
company drowning in debt after all. Meanwhile, the jagged shape of the cash treasury visual is
indicative of a company that raises cash, only to see it swallowed by financials. So it raises
cash, only to see it swallowed by financials. So it raises cash…

10 HRT.to: Working Capital per qtr
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
-90
-100
-110
The gold hedge
Alongside its financial debt pile, HRT’s other main liability is its gold hedge program so we need
to discuss where the company stands with that before being able to model its financials
reasonably. When HRT raised its main debt financing with BNP, part of the deal involved
hedging just over 79,000 ounces of gold in a collar between U$1,310/oz and U$1,399/oz, with
deliveries coming over the years to 2023. As at end 2020, the liability on the hedge has been
reduced to 62,435 oz, but the upper limit on the main hedge and the gold price action since
then means HRT has created a monster liability for itself. For example, in FY 2020 alone, even
after making cash settlements on hedges to the tune of $7.8m and reducing the liability by
delivery, HRT’s burden changed from $19.3m at end 2019 to $41.6m as at today!
HRT struggled to cover its hedge in 2020, but there is now relief as first the price of gold is
down since the end of the last quarter and that will allow HRT to book relief on its hedge. Next,
the financial deals done with BNP and NGD in the last two weeks mean HRT has gained
breathing space on its hedges; it no longer faces a cash crunch and share price liquidation and
as long as things go to plan at the mine, will be able to deliver the ounces (the schedules calls
for around 23k oz delivered in 2021 and 2022, then HRT is over the hump and only has 11k in
2023, plus 5k or so in 2024). In so many words, the hedge is still big and a problem, but the
refi means it won’t be an existential threat to the company in 2021.
A financial model on HRT
Therefore, with the hedge burden understood (and not heavy enough to sink the company just
yet), we can run an easier financial model on HRT and its prospects in 2021, by subtracting the
hedge effect from topline revenues over the course of the theoretical year. We assume the
following, as well as the normal criteria for our mining models:
 HRT delivers on its 2021 guidance by producing a midpoint 63,000 oz gold
 HRT also delivers on 2021 with a mine cash cost of U$800/oz, the low end of its
guidance of U$800 to U$850/oz this year
 We then round the hedge liability for 2021 to 23,000 oz, with the hedge collar upper
limit set at U$1,399/oz, as per the contract (In effect, under our simplified model HRT
gets U$1,399/oz for 23,000oz Au, then spot for the other 40,000oz Au)
 Depreciation in line with recent quarters
 TC/RC at 12%, in line with regional miners (e.g. WDO at Eagle)
 G&A at $2m per quarter, slightly cheaper than the recent average and without any one-
time costs (as in 4q20).
 Financial costs of $13.3m over the year, as estimated by the company (total of $10m
liability to cover under the refi with BNP, plus its March 31st $3.3m payment to make).
We then apply those criteria to five different gold prices for 2021, from a stress-testing
U$1,500/oz to a blue-sky U$2,000/oz, the house preference U$1,800/oz highlighted in sky blue.
We also keep the model simple (K.I.S.S.) by staying in US Dollars throughout, as the revenue,
hedge and debt are all in that currency. We convert HRT CAD filed costs pro-rata at 0.8/1:
10
71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 tse12q1
source company filings/IKN ests
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HRT.to: Cash treasury per qtr
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 tse12q1
source: company filings/IKN ests
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Harte Gold: Condensed income statement (U$m)
U$1,500/oz U$1,700/oz U$1,800/oz U$1,900/oz U$2,000/oz
Sales (U$m) 50.8 53.7 55.2 56.7 58.2
Cash COGS 50.4 50.4 50.4 50.4 50.4
Depreciation 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5
G&A 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
fin. Costs 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3
Op income (30.4) (27.4) (25.9) (24.4) (22.9)
Exploration 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4
sundry (1.1) (1.0) (1.0) (0.9) (0.9)
Eff. Tax (6.7) (6.2) (5.9) (5.6) (5.3)
Net income (26.9) (24.6) (23.5) (22.3) (21.2)
Sources: HRT.to data, IKN estimates
The first thing to notice is how the hedge kills the top line: at U$1,800/oz HRT is missing out on
over $9.2 of the raw revenue. Next, even when we use the HRT low end assumption of mine
cash costs for the year, U$800/oz, cash COGS eats nearly all the HRT topline. While
depreciation isn’t a cash drain, G&A and those heavy financial costs are not going away so
there’s another $20m gone from 2021. “Sundries” is a catch-all to keep the model simple (you
will have to forgive me, but I promise the adjustment works), then even with an assumed tax
break that covers its budgeted C$5m in exploration expenses in 2021, the bottom line isn’t
pleasant. The inescapable fact is that HRT will make a loss this year, not even a U$2k gold price
saves its 2021 and let’s underscore, we’re cherry-picking the better numbers from the company
guidance and assuming it hits all milestones, even after its previous poor showing before the
pandemic hit. We have to take a faltering performer on trust and even then, it will return an
operating and net loss for the quarters of 2021.
Therefore, what is the reason to like this company? That is made clear by the company itself
and its expansion plans, as per the technical report filed at the beginning of this month (see
SEDAR for your copy, it’s one of those 43-101s that reads easily for the lay person). The raw
numbers on the expansion, such as…
 Mill throughput expansion to 1,200tpd, supported by sustainable mining to feed at that
level.
 Annual gold production increases from its 65k bracket to the eye-catching 100k
bracket, with planned sustainable production of just under 100k to 2027
 Post-tax NPV (using a 5% discount, which for a change is perfectly reasonable under
the circumstances)
 An overall low cost expansion, with $21m budgeted as full cost to grow to 1q23. This
reflects in the strong post-tax IRR of 89%.
…are all strong and make for a more promising future. Set this next to its 35km of very
prospective land that already has targets generated and new discoveries made and HRT’s
longer-term future looks brighter than its present
Discussion and conclusion
We could continue, the message should be clear by now. By coming to its recent agreement
with its creditors (BNP, Appian), patient shareholders (Appian) and now getting New Gold
(NGD) to pay C$24.8m for 14.9% of the company, HRT has bought itself time but not much.
The cash now at bank gets HRT to the end of the year at best, after which they are going to
need to raise again to cover their dues in 2022 and beyond. Those include costs of mining rock
of course, but also heavy gold hedge liabilities and debt re-payments, booted forward for a
while but not forgotten. All this while wanting to expand their mine to 1,200tpd after running
their mine at a regular 800tpd all 2021, with head grades hitting the mark every quarter. It all
points to the same conclusion, that 2021 and not 2020 is the key turnaround year for HRT and
11

until it has shown its old and patient backers (BNP, Appian) and its new sponsors it can deliver,
the shares are likely to remain in the penalty box.
That’s not to say NGD hasn’t made a smart acquisition here; quite the contrary, for a relatively
modest outlay, it gets to own 15% of a company that could become a great success and
eventually NGD’s next acquisition. However, it’s in no hurry to do so; Renaud Adams can now
fold his arms, sit back and watch HRT move on its plans: if they don’t work and the company
dies under debt, NGD still owns 15% of voting right and could probably pick the asset up at a
song, while if HRT has a great 2021, there will be a queue of financiers willing to sponsor this
story to 1,200tpd. New Gold isn’t about to move on the 85% it doesn’t own, it has bought a lot
of strategic time. Note again one of the terms of the agreement, that allows NGD to have a
board member (i.e. full knowledge of the company) as from the 2022 AGM. New Gold doesn’t
want a director before that because it doesn’t want one before that.
As for BNP, they get U$13.3m of love from their loan this year, but by agreeing to boot the
main payments forward into 2022 and 2023 give time for the company to shine operationally
and attract enough investment capital to cover their financial liability. And as for Appian, they
have now squared off a difficult position and put the ball back into the company’s court. They’ll
now carry a 19.9% position forward, be of no hindrance to suitors and, if their price is right,
provide a large block of shares to secure the eventual M&A deal. As for that 19.9%, be in no
doubt that NGD’s incursion was agreed in detail by all parties in advance. If you want a math
clue about NGD’s (and Appian’s) true longer-term plans, look no further.
However, for us the retail investor there’s less opportunity for a trade here in 2021. Even if HRT
hits its objectives, it’s going to leave behind a trial of net losses while juniors all around it report
healthy and even excellent profits. Harte Gold (HRT.to) needs to show NGD and its financial
backers that it can deliver, but they have longer time schedules in mind and for us, the minnow
retail, a far smarter plan will be to wait out until HRT shows its plan is working and then get on
later, perhaps early next year when the final funds for its expansion arrive. The company’s new
backers and refinanced debt package make it more attractive, but it still has a long way to go
to prove itself and notably, we’ve assumed it makes losses and gets to the end of 2021 on a
near-perfect execution of a forward guidance that assumes big throughput and grade
improvements, to boot. A lot can still go wrong at HRT, but that’s less of a concern for NGD as
they have their interest in the asset, not the company. On the other hand, if we retail buy in
tomorrow we get to feel the full force of any results underperformance.
Harte Gold (HRT.to) has made great strides recently, but still has a long way to go to escape its
debt pile. If it puts in a strong 2021 and then attracts enough second stage sponsorship to
bring its expansion 100% online and relieve some of its debt, it may be a great buy in 2022.
However, the likelihood of further losses this year mean it’s one that’s best watched from the
sidelines for the moment.
Stocks to Follow
A losing week for the sector and our portfolio, though it would have been a lot worse if the
market had closed for the week on Thursday. Of the 15 open positions, four made gains last
week (MAI.v, SMD.v, ECR.v, MIRL.cse) of you include last weekend’s price for Cartier Resources
(ECR.v) before I owned it. With no UNCH stocks last week that leaves eleven losers, but
notably there were no big losses taken anywhere. Long story short, the relief rally on Friday
made a bad week into a bearable week.
With the addition of Cartier Resources (ECR.v), we are back up to 15 open positions on the
Stock to Follow list, our self-imposed maximum. Seven of our stocks are in the green, one is
unchanged since inception, six are in the red.
12

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.63 200.0% New $1.14 tgt Aug'20 #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.74 -10.8% $1.58 tgt, bot again Nov'20
Recommended stocks (In order of preference)
Copper Mountain CMMC.to STR BUY C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$2.97 112.1% Added Dec'20, trade for FY21
Trilogy Metals TMQ STR BUY U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$2.16 17.4% Added Dec'20, Cu for 2021
Strategic Metals SMD.v STR BUY C$0.40 31-Jan-21 C$0.42 5.0% Asset $ trade, proj generator
New Gold NGD STR BUY U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$1.64 115.8% 3q20 tgt $2.80
Excelsior Mining MIN.to STR BUY C$0.98 10-Mar-19 C$0.77 -21.4% Delayed, but still great value
Royal Road Min. RYR.v BUY C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.36 132.3% Model paying off in Nica
Great Bear Res GBR.v BUY C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$15.91 0.5% M&A major tgt, added IKN590
Cartier Resources ECR.v BUY C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.315 -1.6% Return to Canada land trade
Orezone ORE.v BUY C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$0.93 17.7% M&A now or re-rate later
Aurelius Res AUL.v spec buy C$0.075 28-Jun-20 C$0.045 -40.0% Drillbit good, mkt bad. Spec buy
Pucara Gold TORO.v hold C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.285 -56.2% Strike One
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.14 -28.2% Corp news upcoming
Long-term non-mining hold
Mene Inc. MENE.v LT Hold C$0.65 6-Dec-20 C$0.56 -13.8% LT bet on jockey&horse,will add
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Mining NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
2015 to 2020 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for some notes on covered stocks:
Cartier Resources (ECR.v): Position opened. I bought a few on Monday and paid 32c,
then regretted it. Is it possible to be annoyed with a CEO and their corporate strategy just 24
hours after buying your new position? Tuesday pre-bell, ECR announced (10) the somewhat
delayed resource update for its flagship Chimo property, outside of Val D’Or. The headline read
“Cartier Increases Gold Resources at Mine Chimo Property to 684,000 oz Indicated and to
1,358,000 oz Inferred”, we then learned in bullet points underneath that the indicated resource
graded an average of 3.21 g/t gold, while the inferred graded 2.77 g/t Au. All good so far and
by that time, anyone with access to a pocket calculator knew ECR had “over 2m ounces of gold
under 43-101 resource. But then came the wrinkle, as ECR then told us it used a gold price
assumption of U$1,612/oz and a cut-off of 2.0 g/t. That’s a big change from the previous
assumptions of U$1,300/oz gold and a 2.5 g/t cut-off and puts this resource update under
suspicion; in short, they massaged the numbers to get above two million ounces.
Here’s the map of Chimo as presented in last week’s NR, the red zones holding Indicated
ounces and the blue zones the Inferred. The main Central zone in the centre of the slide, that’s
where (493k+963k=) 1.456m oz Au of the total is located. Then to the top left the North zone
and its (139k+178k=) 317,000 oz Au below that the newer South zone and its (52k+217k=)
269k oz gold.
13

Put them all together and you have 684,000 oz of indicated gold resource and 1.358m oz of
inferred gold resource, a grand total of 2.042m oz gold.
I’ve never really understood why mining explorecos have to reach in this way, but in this case
it’s particularly annoying, partly because I’d paid 32c the previous day and knew the pop to 35c
wouldn’t hold (not on this news). But mostly because ECR shouldn’t be trying to throw sequins
at the retail audience in the first place! If as they insist, the exit strategy is a sale of Chimo,
they will not be selling to retail brains who get impressed by imaginary milestones. Instead,
ECR will be selling to a (probably larger and operating) mining company with people who care
about cut-offs that leave plenty of room for wings in the price of gold. Ladies and gents,
assuming U$1,612/oz gold when the metal is hardly trading $100 above the price is nobody’s
idea of a conservative benchmark. Last weekend in the re-opening note on ECR, I indeed
mentioned there was room to raise the gold price assumption from its present U$1,300/oz in
order to improve cut-off and eventual contained ounces…but not like that! ECR can shift the
blame on to the 43-101 compilers if they want (to think we were born yesterday), but using
that gold price assumption is a stunt you pull on retail, not on purchasers of mining assets for
eventual operation. What was the point of
massaging the figures in order to get the final
total over 2m oz, if it wasn’t for running a flashy
show on the market? It was depressing to see
ECR get such a chance to make a positive
impression and fall between two stools, the
market reacted accordingly by allowing stock
news chasers to bid it up, then slamming doors on
their greedy fingers.
We finished at 31.5c, which is nobody’s idea of a
disaster but the wasted opportunity to add real
equity value is still annoying. It would be good to
get a few more straight-line comparatives for ECR
to its previous resource update, as it’s also now clear they are vending the property on the back
of this resource. Ultimately, last week was a minor hiccup and the reason to own ECR remains
intact; they will sell Chimo and after that, they’ll have lots of Canadian land that is set to
improve in financial value even before they develop their targets. However, I expect initial talks
on the sale of Chimo will be based on 1.7m oz or 1.8m oz of gold, rather than 2m.
14

Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): First and foremost, be clear that I’m aware of a few matters in the
near-term pipeline but it’s also highly likely I don’t know about other key matters. Without
knowing everything that’s about to go down, there’s no way of making a reasonable and
informed decision therefore whatever happens next week do not sell your shares.
Now for the well-sourced gossip: Haywood took up the Minera IRL/Ollachea account in January
and last week brought their conclusions to the company. Sources explain that MIRL has agreed
to add two new directors to the board, of Haywood’s choosing, in order to start a corporate
shake-up and attract financing for Ollachea. This is a very significant turn of events, as MIRL
has effectively acceded temporary executive control of the company to Haywood until the new
board is comprised (and when it is, it will be to their liking) This means Haywood must surely
have Rio Tinto and its block of vote onside for its plans, too. Therefore, control of the company
is about to move to Canada and though without any confirmation at hand, it’s an easy call to
say Diego Benavides wouldn’t be able to stay on as CEO under such circumstances. There may
well be a role in the structure for him, but times seem to be finally changing at the company.
Expect news on this in the days ahead (as early as tomorrow, because MIRL is aware I am
aware of at least some of their corporate changes and would publish on them today). As noted
in the first lines of this short note, the devil may be in the details and it’s to early to get
optimistic until we know the full story, but at face value we may be on the brink of breaking the
logjam in this stock. If news demands, you’ll get a Flash Update during the week on MIRL and if
not, expect a breakdown of any developments in IKN519, next Sunday. Final finally, it was
notable that after my short and somewhat cryptic blog post on MIRL Thursday afternoon, TD
Sec ring-fenced the stock trading early next morning at 14c, passing over a couple of 50k wash
trades to make it clear to one and all where they had decided the stock would finish the week.
Brokerages don’t react to blog posts with real money just because they are bored at the end of
a week, there’s something brewing all right and more than one desk knows about it.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Why that big, 10+% upmove on volume Friday?
For my taste, it was the simplest and best reason; it got way too cheap.
New Gold (NGD): It’s not just Angus and Harte, last week NGD continued its spending spree
by making a third strategic investment in a junior. This time it’s Talisker (TSK.to) and once
again NGD is taking a 14.9% interest (11), spending just over $17m on the shares. The main
attraction of TSK is its Bralorne project in Northern Vancouver. As for the proce action last week
NGD was hit with the rest of them, just didn’t bounce quite as much on Friday. Expect it to
catch up next week
The Copper Basket
After twelve weeks of 2021, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 17.20% to level stakes.
15

company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.08 104.67 870.85 8.32 36.8%
2 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 1.81 207.5 616.28 2.97 64.1%
3 Oroco Res OCO.v 1.85 185.11 348.01 1.88 1.6%
4 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.25 64.358 294.76 4.58 40.9%
5 Western Copper WRN.to 1.57 135.6 223.74 1.65 5.1%
6 Excelsior Min. MIN.to 1.12 273.585 210.66 0.77 -31.3%
7 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.80 180.77 160.89 0.89 11.3%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.07 101.85 110.00 1.08 0.9%
9 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.115 375.17 63.78 0.17 47.8%
10 Chakana Cop PERU.v 0.60 117.2 59.77 0.51 -15.0%
11 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.455 93.64 44.95 0.48 5.5%
12 Doré Copper DCMC.v 1.00 40.938 40.12 0.98 -2.0%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.45 66.7 30.02 0.45 0.0%
14 Crown Mining CWM.v 0.105 87.53 17.94 0.205 95.2%
15 Chibougamau CBG.v 0.165 46.695 7.47 0.16 -3.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 17.20%
It was a negative week for the copper sector and that reflects in our Copper Basket aimed
toward copper explorecos and small
producers. There were only three winners
The Copper Basket 2021, weekly evolution
among our list of 15 companies (CCCM.v, 35%
DCMC.v, CWM.v) and another remained 30%
unchanged on the week (CBG.v), which 25%
means eleven losers so you don’t get that list. 20%
However, there was only one double figure
15%
percentage loser (Regulus down 10.7%),
10%
Friday’s trading saw a low of stocks come off
5%
their lows and come the weekend, our
0%
average had lost a little over two percent on
the week instead of six or seven.
The weakness in stocks was caused by
weakness in the price of copper. Surprise. However, copper price moves look technical in
nature, buyers moved in once the quant selling triggered at the $4.00 line was done with, now
U$9,000/tonne is providing new upside resistance (where there was once recently a floor).
Also, after hearing for weeks from bearish technical analysts that copper may be overstretched
at U$4.00/lb or above, the way copper rebounded sharply at that price line suggests the
speculative attacks are to the downside and the trend higher remains unbroken (even if the two
16
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ht01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82
source: IKN calcs

technical barriers come from using imperial and metric). Indeed, this longer-term copper chart
makes last week’s sudden sell-off look a bit silly.
As for a market comment, there’s more on this subject below in Regional Politics, but resource
nationalism has now come to town with developing nations that host large copper mines all
over the world wondering how they will be able to re-build their economies after the virus hit,
then looking at the massive profits being made by the companies that own these holes in the
ground. Here’s one paragraph from this (12):
On Wednesday, Chile’s lower house approved a proposed royalty on copper in a move the
industry says risks thwarting investment. On the same day, Bloomberg reported that the front-
runner in Peru’s presidential race will push for a tougher stance against mining companies to
ensure more of the revenue generated by vast mineral wealth stays in state coffers. Hours earlier,
the head of Zambia’s state-owned mining investments company was quoted as saying he wants a
bigger slice of the revenues from copper operations.
In other news the notes to Cochilco’s weekly market report, source of our regular copper
inventory numbers (13), contained an interesting snippet of industry info. Due to current tight
supply and uncertainty on how the rest of the year will shape up, China’s CSPT entity, charged
with agreeing prices for its industry, is unusually reticent in setting a floor price for copper
TC/RC charges for the second half of 2021. The implication is of a country preparing itself for
the type of supply squeeze this desk forecast around U$1/lb ago.
We move to our regular weekly copper inventories section, which continues to present facts
that copper bears do not like:
 Aggregate copper inventories in the world’s three official systems rose again last week,
this time up 20,776 metric tonnes (mt) and totalling 377,462mt this weekend. Normally
you’d think that bearish, but the timing on the annual cycle says otherwise.
 The SHFE added, but only a tiny 987 metric tonnes when it should be adding 10k or
15k to stocks. This is bullish, it also leaves SHFE stocks at 188,359 this weekend.
 The LME was the only place that received serious tonnage, up by 18,850mt to reach
123,800mt this weekend, nearly all that copper landing at its warehouses in Rotterdam
(17.3k mt). A slight relief for the tightest of copper markets, but we repeat last weeks
message that anything under 200k is tight for LME, it’s still under that line.
 Another modest addition to Comex stocks, up 939mt and closing the week at 65,303mt.
Of virtual zero consequence to the market.
Here is the Shanghai-only inventories chart, the visual making the dilemma clear:
17

Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
18
31'13ceD ht9 ht81 ht72 ht5tco ht41 dn22 5102
dr3yam
ht21 ht02 ht92 ht7bef ht71 ht62 ht4peS ht31 ht92 ht9 ht81 ht72 7102
ht5von
ht41 ht52 ht01 ht91 ht82 9102
ht6naJ
ht71 ht62 ht4gua ht31 dn22 0202ts1ram ht01 ht91 ht72 0202ht6ced ht41
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
This is the warehouse system which typically accepts 200,000 to 300,000 metric tonnes of extra
inventory during the post-Chinese New Year spike, but in 2021 it hasn’t even managed to add
100k. Not only that, but inventories started at a very low level and if they can’t break 200k
meaningfully before the inevitable reversal and drop, alarm bells will sound even more loudly.
Now for notes on just one of our basket companies (a slow news week):
C3 Metals (CCCM.v): The biggest winner on the list by a long way last week, CCCM.v got
back all the losses of the week before and added gains. This may be presaging news, as the
company started drilling its phase one at Jasperoide five weeks ago and, as the first holes are
likely to be not too deep and also twins of historic holes and as close to guaranteed successful
as drilling for “discovery copper” comes, if they can rush assay we may get results soon.
And that could be the price move of last week, because there’s little doubt this highly
promotional copper junior will milk its first assays for all they are worth and marketing them
hard (assuming they get the type of long 1.0% copper intercept that Hochschild got before
them, around ten years ago). To that end, I’d like you to consider the CCCM.v incentive options
award of last week (14) in light of the options awarded by our Top Pick Minera Alamos (MAI.v)
a couple of weeks ago. Back then, the established and successful MAI.v took flack for emitting
7.2m shares at a premium to market (72c). Here we have a brand new company handing itself
9m options, the options are already in-the-money and 4.3m of them vest immediately. How
that is supposed to be an incentive to greater things is beyond me. This is cheap payola and
exactly the sort of corporate trick you’d expect from the shady duo of Maher and Kimberly Ann,
aided and abetted by Peru’s ace lawyer Fernando Pickmann.
Toronto, Ontario--(Newsfile Corp. - March 26, 2021) - C3 Metals Inc. (TSXV: CCCM)
(the "Company") announces that it has granted in accordance with the Company's
stock option plan an aggregate of 9,000,000 options to purchase common shares of
the Company to directors, officers, employees and consultants. All of the options
granted are exercisable at $0.15 for a period of five years, with 4,300,000 options
vesting immediately and 4,700,000 options vesting 12 months from the date of the
grant.
You may get a trade out of this, however I’d prefer to think that all IKN Weekly subscribers stay
away from this type of obvious set-up. The sole objective of this company is to mine paper, not
metal and if you want a reasonable copper exploreco in Peru. Element 29 (ECU.v) makes a lot
more appeal.
The Producer Basket
After twelve weeks of 2021, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 11.69% to level stakes.

company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out Mkt Cap (U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 59.89 803.36 49.41 61.50 2.7%
2 Barrick GOLD 22.78 1779.04 35.58 20.00 -12.2%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 70.51 242.99 14.30 58.86 -16.5%
4 Kirkland Lake KL 41.27 272.984 9.12 33.42 -19.0%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 7.34 1260 8.47 6.72 -8.4%
6 Pan American PAAS 34.71 210.17 6.46 30.76 -11.4%
7 Endeavour Min EDV.to 29.62 246.2 5.10 24.85 -16.1%
8 B2Gold BTG 5.60 1064 4.85 4.56 -18.6%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 8.75 392.73 3.11 7.93 -9.4%
10 Pretium Res PVG 11.48 187.254 1.98 10.57 -7.9%
Prices in U$ except EDV.to (share price in CAD$ and mkt cap in approx USD) Port. avg -11.69%
All ten of our component stocks were losers on the week, from the minor 0.7% dent taken by
Newmont (NEM) to the more substantial 7.7% hit taken by Pan American Silver (PAAS) as silver
under-performed gold. With GLD down 0.64% on the week, GDX down 3.3% and GDXJ down
5.5%, the headwinds were strong.
The 2021 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and 4%
comparative to GDX control
0%
-4%
-8%
-12%
-16%
-20%
We continue to lag the GDX benchmark by the same 2% to 3% gap that grew at the start of
the year and hasn’t threatened to close (as yet…still plenty of time to beat the street in 2021).
Kirkland Lake (KL): Worth a look at the two year chart of KL against GDX:
Market darlings tend not to stay that way forever, KL is now UNCH over 112 weeks and
significantly underperforming peers.
19
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ht01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82
The 2021 Producer Basket: Percentage difference between
GDX benchmark and basket (negative = IKN basket ahead)
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
basket 1.5%
gdx control
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
source: Google, IKN Calcs
ts1
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ht01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82
source: IKN calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq/TSX data

The Tiny Dogs
After twelve weeks of 2021, the Tiny Dogs show a gain of 12.62% to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Antler Gold ANTL.v 0.205 61.348 12.27 0.20 -2.4%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.045 163.975 8.20 0.05 11.1%
Constantine Met CEM.v 0.17 45.4 10.44 0.23 35.3%
Contact Gold C.v 0.115 240.757 26.48 0.110 -4.3%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.22 40 5.60 0.14 -36.4%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.045 230.79 20.77 0.090 100.0%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.240 106.241 16.47 0.155 -35.4%
QC Copper QCCU.v 0.315 105 19.95 0.19 -39.7%
Red Pine Expl RPX.v 0.400 95.341 73.41 0.77 92.5%
Warrior Gold WAR.v 0.090 91.818 8.72 0.10 5.6%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 12.62%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
A reflection of their larger cousins, the Tiny Dogs were neutral-to-negative last week with just
one stock, Warrior Gold (WAR.v up 5.6%),
managing a weekly win. There were four other 20% Tiny Dogs, 2021 weekly tracker
UNCH stocks (BAY.v, CEM.v, C.v, MTU.v) and 18%
16%
then five losers, with Precipitate (PRG.v) living up 14%
to its name as the fastest to drop, down 18.4%. 12%
10%
8%
In the year or so of this new-ish section of The 6%
IKN Weekly, we’ve seen that it offers its most 4%
2%
useful signal when volumes are good and money 0%
has managed to flow/rotate down to the lower
strata of the mining world. That ‘s not the case
at the moment, volumes have dried up again and
that’s not a good sign, these stocks run wide
bid/asks and can change value by 20% or more just on one dedicated seller.
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v): A volatile start
for New Red Pine, with a 39% trading range
between the low at the completion of the rollback
(61c) and the high last Monday (85c), but you
didn’t need to get those Utopian numbers to trade
the stock for 2x 20% gains in the last two weeks (if
you are good enough, that is. I’m not).
The corporate re-working is done and the company
announced (15) the financing connected with the
20
ts1
naJ
ht01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

re-work closed in good order, raising gross proceeds of just over C$20m and allowing RPX to
close on the terms of the deal. We also now have a solid number for the new and rolled-back
share count, RPX now having 95,341,254 shares outstanding (the financing success means the
count ballooned away from my previous 85m guesstimate). So with just one quarter of 2021
done, a member of the stock group with a market cap of $20m maximum is worth over C$73m.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It is possible that in the
future I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, but at the moment both my opinion and my wallet are strictly
neutral.
Regional politics
Peru Presidential election update
The main opinion poll out this weekend was commissioned by Peru’s centre-left national daily
La Republica from reasonable pollster IEP. However, IEP and La Republica favour the Left more
than other polls, plus the methodology was unsolicited cellphone calls (cheaper and faster
polling, but can give false results), so a pinch of salt required. Here’s the screenshot from
today’s paper (16):
The bad news is seeing Verónika Mendoza move up to third place, the rest adds mystery to the
drama. The tendency from the last IEP survey two weeks ago is probably the most useful
information, with nominal frontrunner Yonhy Lescano losing ground and the pack closing
behind him. If we discount Keiko Fujimori (who polls with the pack but won’t move above 8%),
there are five people looking for the two run-off places and it’s going to be very tight, as we
even have Hernando de Soto moving up (he’s getting support from the Socio-econmic A group,
taking votes away from Rafael López Aliaga) There are still 27% of voters who are either
undecided or say they will “vote white” (spoil ballot) and as that percentage always drops on
election day, any of the top five will still fancy their chances of making the second round.
Inside the above battle, there are also sub-fights among the lefties and it’s no surprise to see
Veronika Mendoza’s gain closely match Lescano’s drop. To date Lescano, managed to gain the
centre left and left wing vote, doing particularly well in large provincial conurbations such as
Arequipa. Lescano’s momentum was to Verónika Mendoza’s detriment, but since her showing in
last week’s election has managed to translate that into some momentum at the right time. You
may recall, at the start of this close coverage election series that a late surge by Mendoza was
this desk’s #1 fear and now, there’s signs of it coming to pass.
21

Meanwhile to the right (and again, we exclude Keiko Fujimori from any serious reckoning for
round two), Rafael López Aliaga (very right wing), Hernando de Soto (orthodox economist right
wing) and George Forsyth (centre-right) are duking it out on the other side of the ballot. This
doesn’t stop the potential of left vs left or right vs right in the run-off, but it does make a
ballotage that is split down ideological lines more likely. This election is still very difficult to call,
but Peru moving toward a more traditional Left vs Right second round allows a little more
certainty so I’m going to stick my neck out and make a tentative call for a run-off between
Yonhy Lescano versus George Forsyth. Mine isn’t the only opinion of course, for example local
journalist rock star Cesar Hildebrandt calls the run-off between Lescano and López Aliaga.
Certainly, the joker in the 2021 pack is Rafael López Aliaga and his Trumpian style. His
campaign has ploughed over any controversy, spending money hard on a coordinated
internet/social media campaign on an unsubtle message: Vote for him and he’ll promise you
anything and everything. Apparently, there will be Covid-19 clinics for one and all by the end of
the year and full employment in Peru in five years’ time, water supply for all houses, internet
for all houses, free school meals (and the list goes on). The message is effective; its blatant
populism goes down well with rank and file, while the people who run the country are happy
and free to do what they want.
In other Peru news, these next two weekends threaten to be Covid-19 infection catalysts with
first Easter Week and Easter Sunday (and while the churches are officially closed, it’s all-but
impossible to stop crowds gathering) and the Presidential election just one week later (its
closing ceremonies and crowd events their own hotspots). Regarding vote day, in order to
mitigate any infection issues, voters have been issued not just with a location to vote but also a
time bracket (which is bound to add to confusion), there’s also a latent threat of the vote day
becoming chaotic, as the system in Peru demands people on the electoral register are chosen at
random to staff the voting tables. With the prospect of being breathed upon by hundreds of
your fellow citizens over a 12 hour period, the government has already moved to make the
“civic duty” more attractive by adding a S/120 (U$35) payment as well as PPE gear for the day
but there’s a chance that not enough people turn up to staff the vote tables and, as a result,
people don’t get to vote.
The bottom line: The advice remains in place to avoid Peru exposure through this election.
There are potential upside catalysts, for example if neither Lescano nor Mendoza made the
round two run-off Peru’s equities and bonds markets would move higher immediately. However,
there are more risks to the downside than to the up, plus there will be plenty opportunities to
trade the news once the final two candidates are known.
Brazil Covid-19 update
Peru may get for a new round of Covid-19 problems once its election process is over, in Brazil
the Covid-19 nightmare is here, now and getting worse by the day. On Friday, Brazil announced
a record 3,650 deaths from the virus, then Saturday 3,358 deaths and those columns look
ominous on the Worldometers chart (17):
…plus a new infections rate that is closing in on 100,000 people per day.
22

For context, consider the development of the mortality chart for The USA, a country with a
populations approximately 50% larger than that of Brazil:
According to the US CDC yesterday Saturday, 19.4% of the US adult population is now fully
vaccinated and 35.4% of the adult population has had at least one dose of vaccine.
Mexico: AMLO versus the mining companies
The rise of Resource Nationalism under Mexico’s current President Andrés Manuel López
Obrador, aka AMLO, was a confident prediction on these pages at the time of his election, it’s
now in sharp relief. The duo of President AMLO and his friend, Senator and union leader Napito
(see issues passim), have slowly tightened their grip, now with issues coming to a head the
country’s President hasn’t batted an eyelid as he turns problems faced by Canada’s miners into
political footballs and useful distractions.
The two main issues today are electricity and tax. Regarding electricity, a new law reform
currently stuck under legal appeal would mean (in effect and to cut a long story short) the
Mexico’s State electricity generation company (CNE) gets to jump the queue for electricity
supply to any given customer. For an example from our sector of focus, it would be able to
intercede in a energy supply deal between a private power company and a mining company,
forcing the miner to buy and pay for the National produced energy no matter what cost
difference. Unsurprisingly, the mining sector is up in arms about this change and while it’s still
under appeal, they have time to lobby it away, so a long list of companies headed by country
big names Fresnillo, and Newmont (Peñasquito) along with the mining chambers of commerce
have been doing just that (18). Most interestingly, one of the main legal argument being used
by the mining collective over this quasi-nationalization of energy supply is to use the Green
Energy riposte, stating that their corporate objectives run against the purchase of energy
produced by the type of old-fashioned generators under State control. For example the words
of NEM’s Tom Palmer, “While we advance toward a zero carbon footprint, we’re going to have
to depend on energy from renewable sources. There are governments in some jurisdictions
where we operate that subsidize State (power) companies that do not generate electricity
efficiently, and stop renewables from coming online.”
Next up it’s the tax question, which in its latest iteration began as the spat between First
Majestic (AG) and the Mexico tax office, but has now expanded to feature the President and his
cohorts in primetime attacks on the companies and include general corporate behaviour of all
23

Canadian mining companies in Mexico. Last week AMLO upped the ante against the miners by
wheeling in one of his ministers to his regular daily press briefing. This minister went about
attacking both First Majestic (AG) (FR.to) for “not paying its taxes” and Americas Gold & Silver
(USAS) for refusing to come to agreement with its striking workforce. Then AMLO joined in on
this live TV attack:
“Ask the Secretary of Foreign Relations to speak with the government of Canada, to
expalin the situation and that it should not in any way be understood as a treta or even
a warning. However, if the rule of law is not respected the government can revoke
concessions from the company. There wouldn’t be a lack of other companies that want
to comply with the law to run the mining operations”
By the time that “not a threat, not a warning, pretty promise” statement from AMLO had made
it to the TV versions of pro-government media, it was things like this (20):
Even if you don’t speak Spanish or didn’t know the word “da” is third person of the verb “to
give”, it’s not a tough one to translate. Other pro-AMLO media channels have fallen into line as
expected, targeting foreign and specifically Canadian mining companies for a general audience.
For example this report, “The Scandalous Case of the Foreign Miners”, written for one of the
left wing pro-government media outlets by a reporter that doesn’t know what they are talking
about when it comes to mining (21). However, that didn’t stop another slice of anti-mining
rhetoric hit the eyeballs of the AMLO faithful up and down the country. The man has a new
piñata and the way he’s fanning dog-whistle nationalism harks back to his apparent friend,
POTUS45 when he was in office. Cynical populism is as bad on the left as it is on the right,
when the intention is to spread division it shows its worst aspect. There are even reports of
executives of First Majestic (FR.to) AG) getting their bank accounts frozen by Mexican
authorities (19), qualified as bullyboy tactics by the Mexican Chamber of Mining. In response,
USAS for one said (22) it had been subject to “extortion and organized crime”, was being forced
to accept a union under the control of Napito, and described the San Rafael mine in Cosala as
the victim of an illegal blockade, hardly the talk of a company on the brink of coming to a
friendly agreement. As for First Majestic, the next day it said it had been in a meeting with the
Mexican government that afternoon, but didn’t add many details.
The thing about this First Majestic/Mexico tax issue over San Dimas, in which Mexico’s tax office
insists FR.to owes the country U$500m in unpaid taxes, is that it’s hardly new. Back in 2011
then-owner Primero (ex-P.to) was well aware of the issue, Here’s BN Americas interviewing
Primero’s VP IR at the time, Tamara Brown (currently CEO of Superior Gold (SGI.v)) (23):
Silver Wheaton entered into the original agreement with Goldcorp in 2004 to purchase
100% of production until 2029 in exchange for an upfront payment of Cdn$46mn in
cash, 108mn Silver Wheaton common shares and US$3.90/oz (plus 1% inflation).
When Primero acquired San Dimas the agreement was renegotiated and it will now
sell the first 3.5Moz plus 50% of the rest of output each year at US$4.04/oz (plus 1%
inflation) until 2014. From 2015 until the end of the mine life Primero will sell the first
6Moz plus 50% of the rest produced each year at US$4.20/oz (plus 1% inflation).
Primero can sell the remainder produced each year at spot prices, increasing revenues
and reducing cash costs. "We renegotiated so that we now effectively get about a
24

quarter of the silver from the mine," Brown said. However, under the agreement
Primero must pay tax on all sales at the spot price. "We do feel there is an argument
that because we didn't receive an upfront payment from Silver Wheaton, like every
other company, we should be taxed at realized prices," Brown said.
Brown goes on to talk about getting expert legal opinion and obviously they decided the
company wasn’t liable, but ten years on the Mexican government still disagrees (and the basic
legal tenet that when you buy a company, you purchase all its assets and liabilities whether
known or unknown means that I tend to agree with Mexico).
Chile and the royalty on mining
Chile’s lower house of Congress caused an almighty ruckus in both the nation’s government and
mining sector last week. In a planned, semi-stealth move, opposition resurrected an old law
project dated from 2018 that would impose a 3% royalty of copper and lithium extraction in
Chile and promptly passed it (24), getting 91 lower house lawmakers to support the law the
introduce an “ad valorem tax” (i.e. royalty) on copper and lithium production above certain
specified production levels (36 voted against, 15 abstained). They also voted to increase the
royalty on copper production and a windfall tax on the metal, that would mean all monies
above U$4.50/lb go to the Chilean State. With this vote, the law project passed a major hurdle
and should eventually be voted by the country’s Senate, though first it goes back to committee
stage o April 14th (at which point we will get more anti-mining headline out of Chile). Here’s a
link (25) and here’s a quote from it:
In a country that accounts for more than a quarter of the world’s mined copper,
opposition lawmakers want to introduce a 3% tax on copper and lithium produced by
companies such as BHP Group and Albemarle Corp. to fund development projects,
responding to the rising social and environmental standards of investors and supply
chains.
“It’s part of what our country needs -- greater economic and social justice and an end
to privileges that big companies have had,” Christian Democrat Deputy Ivan Flores
said.
This was a largely political move that won’t come to any extra charge on Chilean metals an
mining in 2021 because a) it’s being opposed at Senate level b) the committee that allowed the
project onto the floor after three years is being questioned for its own legality and c) even if it
passed the Senate in a very watered-down form, there’s no way Piñera signs that one.
Therefore, we are not going to get an extra 3% royalty on copper, lithium or any other type of
metals* production. YET. Last week was a shot across the bows, a taste of the resource
nationalism Chile’s mining industry is going to “enjoy” after the Presidential election at the end
of this year. Indeed, by the time the left wing had washed and rinsed their talking point in
public, we also heard from their academic mentors who insist the country’s copper industry
could support another 10% of State burden. Their line of thinking is “they are making a 40%
margin, they are not going to run away if they are making 30%.”
*I read with amusement a Spanish language report on Plateau Uranium (PLU.v) in which its Country Manager Ulisses
Solis said the company’s Macusani lithium project only required a non-metallic mining permit. There’s man who needs
to check the periodic table of elements.
Ecuador Presidential election update
On April 11th, Peru gets its round one Presidential election vote and Ecuador gets its round two,
when we find out who replaces Lenín Moreno in the big job. Two opinion polls last week from
Clima Social (March 23rd) and Perfiles de Opinion (March 27th) both give Andrés Arauz an
approximate seven point advantage over his run-off rival, Guillermo Lasso. The return of Rafael
Correa is at hand and Ecuador remains set on course for chaos.
25

Market Watching
Excelsior Mining (MIN.to) Q4 and 2021 year-end financials
Friday evening post-close our faltering copper play Excelsior Mining (MIN.to) filed its 4q20 and
year-end financials. The timing of MIN.to’s numbers, coming after its recent corporate update
and placement that fund the company through to commercial production, means that unless
there was something unduly or unexpectedly negative in the year-end results or corporate
outlook, the news is all baked in. Therefore you may be glad to know today’s note on MIN.to is
brief, using just five of the Usual Suspect tracking charts, because after due number crunching
there’s nothing untoward in MIN’s backward-looking financials and we can now look forward to
the future and commercial production at Gunnison.
These five are enough to show what’s going on, starting with assets and liabilities, with the
main action in assets not at the confirmed 4q20 columns, rather our 1q21 estimates that
include the effects of the recently closed financing. The pop in cash is clear…
MIN.to: Assets
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
…and as liabilities remain largely unchanged the effect is on the near-term only.
Cash treasury and working capital are very
similar charts at MIN, we clearly see how
funds were running thin at the end of
2020 and how the recent financing brings
cash up the level MIN seems to find most
comfortable. As for the share count, that’s
now here but unlikely to move up much
further until Stage 2 (or 3) is financed.
Bottom line: We may be in the clutch of
glitches during its start-up period, but
MIN’s financials couldn’t be more
26
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 tse12q1
$m MIN.to: Debt Breakdown per qtr 160
fixed 140
other current 120
cash
100
80
60
40
20
0
source: company filings
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 tse12q1
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs
50 MIN.to: Working Capital per qtr
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 tse12q1
source company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
MIN.to: Cash treasury per qtr
50
45 40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 tse12q1
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
MIN.to: Shares Out
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
61q1 61q2 61q3 61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 tse12q1
source: company filings/IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim

straightforward. Everything in line, we continue to hold.
The Norsemont Mining (NOM.cse) story changes again
A necessary revisit to a recent failed trade, as even though I’m late commenting on this March
15th NR (26), it’s preyed on my mind enough since IKN616 for this short note. The main
problem is found buried at the end of the NR, in the CEO comment:
“We are pleased to back in the field at Choquelimpie and look forward to rapidly moving the
project forward with a plan for additional drilling, subject to permitting, and delivering a NI 43-101
compliant resource, in the second half of the year.
There is nothing “rapid” about that, as previous NOM promised a 43-101 resource update by
the end of March. A buyer on several occasions and then a recent seller at painful 70c, I now
count myself thankful to have bitten the bullet when I did, as that NR of March 15th would
have been more than enough to hit the sell button.
All junior explorecos, 100% of them without exception, only have one thing to sell. If that story
is good and turns out to be true, then they will be able to sell the story successfully, but if the
narrative suddenly changes, watch out! The discerning investor can and will allow leeway to a
junior and its transitory problems, but at NOM this latest delay and change of story is hardly the
first and indicative of deeper woes.
Those Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) drill assays
By popular request, a word on the drill results out of Wesdome (WDO.to) last week that caused
a rightful shift in the stock’s recent fortunes. However, be prepared because I’m also going to
be cruel and unfair about the company’s trade potential. On Monday WDO came out with this
NR (27) that carried this header…
Wesdome Discovers New High Grade Zone in Footwall of the Kiena Deep A
Zone Including 34.1 g/t Gold Over 18.0 Metres Core Length
…included drill highlight lines of this type…
 Highlights of the recent drilling are listed below and summarized in Table 1.
 Hole 6742W2: 11.9 g/t Au over 22.0 m core length (11.9 g/t Au cut)
 Hole 6742W6: 59.7 g/t Au over 5.9 m core length (28.9 g/t Au cut)
 Hole 6742W6: 34.2 g/t Au over 18.0 m core length (16.7 g/t Au cut)
… (those assays using a 90 g/t topcut) and moved the stock this way:
Let’s not pick hairs too much, this is impressive. The word “footwall” is used all over the place
(including the title) for good reason, WDO tells us that now they have turned drill attention
away from resource definition (to get the mine up and running) and to resource
expansion/exploration drilling, they will be able to target more of zones they expect to contain
this type of mineralization. And with those four lines, your author glosses over a technical
subject that would be of more interest if it weren’t for a couple of factors:
27

 WDO is run by reliable, trustworthy executives. We don’t need to know exactly how
their improved knowledge of Kiena geology has improved drill vectoring, nor the precise
relationship between the deposit’s hanging and foot wall mineralization; they say they
will be able to deliver more ounces (and notably, they talk of more vertical ounces
which makes them economically robust) and I for one believe them. In the words of
CEO Middlemiss from the CEO comment section of last week’s NR, “Obviously, this
footwall zone will be one of the zones of focus for the continuing drilling.” Natch.
 Nothing last week changed the reason to overlook WDO for the time being. As pointed
out in the recent note on WDO (IKN616), the reason I’m not a buyer today is as much
to do with market timing anything else and the issue isn’t the long-term production
schedule at Kiena, nor the fact they will be able to extend mine life a long way out from
the current plan. The problem is that a few months ago, WDO said they’d get 15k to
25k gold from the mine in 2020 and then WDO would be a 200k gold miner in 2022.
Now, with its slower ram-up schedule from the mine, there’s plenty of distance
between us and any quarterly result that justifies a $14 or $16 share price.
Bottom line: Great drill numbers, Duncan, but I still prefer NGD.
Conclusion
IKN618 is done, we end with bullet points:
 Harte Gold (HRT.to) is a smart purchase of NGD, but I won’t be following Renaud
Adams in yet; the company still has a lot to price and that big hedge to work off, until
such time its shares are likely to lag and other stocks make more appeal.
 A lot of fuss made over copper’s transient sag last week, a lot of people seem to be
entrenched on the wrong side of the trade. Be clear, copper is going higher.
 A long edition. I’m of to bed.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/03/schedule-for-week-of-march-28-2021.html
(2) https://www.hartegold.com/investors/investor-presentation/
(3) https://www.hartegold.com/news/harte-gold-provides-corporate-and-operations-update/
(4) https://www.hartegold.com/news/harte-gold-accelerates-plan-to-bolster-management-and-provides-financing-
update/
(5) https://www.hartegold.com/news/harte-gold-announces-board-appointments/
(6) https://www.hartegold.com/news/harte-gold-announces-appointments-of-ceo-and-coo/
(7) https://www.hartegold.com/news/harte-gold-announces-executive-management-changes/
28

(8) https://www.hartegold.com/news/harte-gold-announces-changes-to-senior-management-and-board/
(9) https://iknnews.com/harte-gold-hrt-to-goes-for-the-lake-superior-share-dilution-strategy/
(10) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/copper-boom-catching-eye-poverty-000000768.html
(11) https://www.mining.com/new-gold-takes-14-9-stake-in-talisker/
(12) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-25/copper-boom-is-catching-the-eye-of-poverty-fighting-
politicians
(13)
https://www.cochilco.cl/Paginas/Estudios/Mercados%20de%20metales%20e%20insumos%20estrat%C3%A9gicos/Infor
mes-Semanales-2015.aspx
(14) https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/1399-tsx-venture/cccm/95983-c3-metals-
announces-grant-of-options.html
(15) https://redpineexp.com/red-pine-completes-financing-to-consolidate-wawa-gold-project/
(16) https://larepublica.pe/elecciones/2021/03/28/encuesta-iep-lescano-pierde-impulso-y-hay-pugna-por-la-segunda-
vuelta-pltc/
(17) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/brazil/
(18) https://www.bnamericas.com/es/noticias/mineria-reacciona-en-contra-de-reforma-electrica-de-mexico
(19) https://www.elcontribuyente.mx/2021/03/mineras-canadienses-acusan-acciones-agresivas-por-parte-del-sat/
(20) https://www.milenio.com/politica/amlo-mineras-respetan-ley-revocara-concesion
(21) http://www.siempre.mx/2021/03/el-escandaloso-caso-de-las-mineras-extranjeras/
(22) https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-canada-mining/canadian-miner-meets-mexican-officials-over-labor-
dispute-idUSKBN2BG263
(23) https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/primero-evaluating-ways-to-mitigate-tax-impact-of-san-dimas-silver-stream-
agreement
(24) https://www.cooperativa.cl/noticias/economia/sectores-productivos/mineria/proyecto-de-royalty-minero-dio-un-
primer-gran-paso-en-el-congreso/2021-03-24/145655.html
(25) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-24/mining-royalty-proposal-clears-key-hurdle-in-top-copper-
country
(26) https://webfiles.thecse.com/20210315_SCMVilacolloUpdate.pdf?T.Ao62oum8jwvOUwxv9TlI.HXGfMTOof
(27) https://www.wesdome.com/news/press-releases/index.php?content_id=400
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
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Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
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Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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