IKN #615Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 615, March 7th 2021
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, It’s (virtual) PDAC week, Janet Yellen takes over.
Fundamental Analysis: The New Gold (NGD) valuation model under new market
circumstances, And a more complete addendum on Wesdome Gold (WDO.to)
Stocks to Follow: Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Copper Mountain (CMMC.to), Minera IRL (MIRL.cse),
Trilogy Metals (TMQ), Aurelius Minerals (AUL.v), Mene Inc (MENE.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Oroco Resources (OCO.v), Chakana Copper (PERU.v), Amerigo
Resources (ARG.to)
Producer Basket: Overview.
Tiny Dogs: Overview, Contact Gold (C.v).
Regional Politics: Brazil: Covid-19 accelerating again, Peru: The field begins to narrow,
Ecuador Presidential election update, Argentina: Chubut and Navidad back on deck.
Market Watching: Regarding Excelsior Mining’s (MIN.to) share price underperformance, The
Peru market tracker ETF (EPU) is an alternative play on the country, Red Pine Exploration
Redux (RPX.v), Final thoughts on the price of silver and futures trading.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
“
In today’s edition
 I hope today’s intro hangs together okay, not being an expert on the matters at hand
means it’s clearer in my head than it may look on the page. In essence, we’re at a
crossroads in the market and portfolio success or failure depends on getting the macro
call on gold (and other metals) right. This house contends that inflation isn’t going to
rear its head in The USA and even if it does, the Fed will be able to fake its
disappearance. As such, the recent rise in bond yields doesn’t have much more in the
tank and that’s good news for the gold price, we can start to repair the price damage
from the U$1,700/oz line.
 The political situations in Ecuador and Peru, revolving around their respective
presidential elections, continue to get close coverage in Regional Politics. Both countries
are sells.
 We consider New Gold (NGD) under the new lower gold price and still like the stock a
lot. There’s also a more complete piece on why I’m tracking Wesdome (WDO.to) closely
and it’s now starting to look cheap.
 Other things, too.
It’s (virtual) PDAC week
First, the necessary links and here’s the register landing page (1). One more click from there
1

will show you standard all access is C$700, then the standard “expo connect” (popular among
investors) is C$490. There are discounts and particularly good ones for students and over 65s
but frankly, if I hadn’t been comped an entry*, I would think hard about paying that amount for
something I’m going to be doing next week anyway (i.e. staring at a screen learning about
mining companies). What also catches the attention is how PDAC 2021 only gets two country
sponsorship days, namely Canada (natch) and Peru (2). Nothing from Ecuador, Argentina,
Colombia or any of the other regular State-level sponsors and what’s more, Peru may have
opened its own can of worms by being available for extensive questioning at a very delicate
moment in its political year (more Peru politics below).
However, one thing we can guarantee is news. Tomorrow “PDAC Monday” is one of the high
traffic NR days of the year, with plenty of explorecos and juniors holding back a piece of good
news for the event. That explains the lack of newsflow this week, it also explains why we get
inundated tomorrow morning. PDAC also marks something of an anniversary, the beginning of
the real financial mess caused by Covid-19 and the pandemic’s hold over the world (you may
recall as I do the geologist who caught Covid-19 at PDAC and then spent nearly two weeks in
an ICU o a ventilator; knowing what we know now, he was lucky). However, this year’s Virtual
PDAC is also likely to come with a weird reverse curse, as its normal job of marking the high
point in mining stocks has been changed and this year, Virtual PDAC is marking the bottom.
*Accepted from a CEO at a junior that I do not own or cover, any changes on that I’ll tell you. Basically, they had a
spare in their package, I said yes. Bite me.
Janet Yellen takes over
We last mentioned Janet Yellen on these pages when she headed up the Federal Reserve,
these days she’s US Treasury Secretary in the Biden administration and she hasn’t changed her
tune on the best way to get her country’s economy moving again. Here are some headlines and
snippets from last week (3) (4) (5) (6):
“Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says Congress needs to 'go big' for relief package”
“Janet Yellen says higher Treasury yields signal recovery, not inflation”
"I don't see that the markets are expecting inflation to rise above the 2% inflation
objective that the Fed has as an average inflation rate over the longer run,"
“I remember back in 2007, the debt-to-G.D.P. ratio before the financial crisis was 35
percent. And now it’s around 100,” she said.
A more important measure, for her, is the cost of debt. “Just look, for example, at
interest payments on the debt as a share of G.D.P. Currently that’s under 2 percent,”
she said. “And it’s no higher than it was in 2007. So, I think we have more fiscal space
than we used to because of the interest rate environment. And I think we should be
using it now to address an emergency.”
“Labor Department data showed employers added 379,000 net jobs in February, more
than forecast. That dropped the U.S. unemployment rate to 6.2%.
“Although 379,000 jobs sounds like a lot, at that pace it would take us more than two
years to get to full employment," Yellen said. The “real" unemployment rate, after
factoring in 4 million who dropped out of the labor force after losing their jobs, was
more like 10%, she said.”
All those from last week, except for the “I remember back in 2007, the debt-to-G.D.P. ratio…”
comment which dates from February 23rrd and an excellent interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin
(which is too good not to mention). What we saw last week was Janet moved in to jawbone the
stimulus debate and turn the market to the admin’s favour. Those chosen to offer the range of
Yellen’s current influence. It’s wide and what’s more, she seems to be enjoying her new and
more political role. However, the main news is that Janet Wants Us To Go Big. She has her
target for success out of the recession and it’s not GDP growth or tempering inflation, it’s
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dropping an unemployment rate that she places at a quasi 10%. It’s about making sure the
“corners of suffering” in America (she said that to Congress) get their full stimulus cheque, it’s
also about being aware of inflation but confident that genie can be kept in the bottle. In Janet
Yellen’s Treasury, everything is already on the direct path to Goldilocks.
We’ll come back to that in a moment, first let’s catch up with the Gold/TIPS10 chart as per last
weekend. As you can see on the right, since we last spoke on the chart it’s been the
continuation of higher yields and a lower gold price.
In order to put that into context, here below is the ten year chart of the TIPS10 yield but
instead of laying gold against it (see IKN614 last week for that chart), you have the squiggly
line for the thirty year breakeven inflation rate, which works like a moving average for inflation.
It shows the quick run up from the Covid crash lows, but so far at least we’re not in a highly
inflationary backdrop, more evidence if needed that the recent market change has been to
normalize, rather than to ignite inflation.
Those more bearish than I will point to the steep nature of the recent run and may speculate its
continuance, I have no problem with that and agree we should watch this data set carefully for
signs of an over-heating economy. But that doesn’t change the now and until proven otherwise,
this is rate normalization and not a zoom into the inflationary stratosphere. As such, its negative
influence on gold and the mining companies will be limited and, thanks to Janet Go Big Yellen,
might even have ended on Friday.
The GLD Inventory/Price indicator stays strong
Our GLD charts also suggest a “reverse curse of PDAC” this year, there are details to like in the
way the world’s largest gold ETF (by a distance) and preferred vehicle for gold trading for large
funds and institutions has been moving. But before ploughing on, I’ve taken a couple of mails
from newer subbers asking on the significance of this ratio chart. Fair enough and well worth a
re-visit, as there are new lessons from the long-view chart:
3

8.40 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, five years
8.20
8.00
7.80
7.60
7.40
7.20
7.00
6.80
6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80
5.60
5.40
4
61/4/1 61/71/2 61/13/3 61/21/5 61/42/6 61/8/8 61/02/9 61/1/11 1/41/21 71/03/1 71/41/3 71/62/4 71/8/6 71/12/7 71/1/9 1/61/01 1/82/11 81/11/1 81/62/2 81/01/4 81/22/5 81/5/7 81/61/8 81/82/9 81/9/11 1/42/21 91/7/2 91/22/3 91/6/5 91/81/6 91/13/7 91/21/9 1/42/01 91/6/21 02/22/1 02/5/3 02/71/4 02/1/6 02/41/7 02/52/8 02/7/01 2/81/11 12/4/1 12/71/2
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
Please be clear, this is a working theory and not set in stone. However, as with the better
working theories that tend to stand the test of time, our little working theory is simple: We
posit that as instos etc use GLD as their entry/exit for gold bullion, these trades will move on
large transactions (e.g. they have the right of physical redemption from GLD and use it) and the
ratio fluctuates in time to the price of gold, it gives us a handle on the appetite for gold bullion
among the serious New York players. The ratio is geared so that…
At 6.0 (or below), insto sentiment toward holding gold is in the dumpster
At 7.0 (or above), insto sentiment toward holding gold is strongly positive
In the last five years we’ve seen three periods of “six or below”, the first was the tail end of the
long bear market for PMs before things changed in early 2016. The other two are more recent,
first just before the gold turned again in mid-2019 and set off on its recent run. Then second,
just before and around last year’s Covid crash, this the most interesting one of all as gold was
being bought up by the market before the crash hit. That was against the “normal” reasons for
a ratio sag, as the phenomenon saw instos liquidating anything they had to cover crash
redemptions, then having to play catch-up with the gold price as the rest of the world bid the
metal up in the post-crash scenario. However, the ratio’s logic held firm and it’s one of the
reasons why I’ve come to appreciate its insights and feature it regularly in the intro. As for
actionable thoughts for today, let’s focus on the last year and a bit:
7.40 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2020 to date
7.30
7.20
7.10
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
6.20
6.10
6.00
5.90
5.80
2/1 21/1 22/1 1/2 11/2 12/2 2/3 21/3 22/3 1/4 11/4 12/4 1/5 11/5 12/5 13/5 01/6 02/6 03/6 01/7 02/7 03/7 9/8 91/8 92/8 8/9 81/9 82/9 8/01 81/01 82/01 7/11 71/11 72/11 7/21 71/21 72/21 6/1 61/1 62/1 5/2 51/2 52/2
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
We see the popular period, which took a mid-year wobble but stayed over 7.0X from June to
December 2020. The dump from that coincides with the first major flush of the gold price, we
also see it in the drop in absolute tonnages held by GLD in the 4q20 period (chart below).
However, what we haven’t seen is continued weakness in our ratio in 2021, despite the stiff
drop in GLD bullion tonnages.

1300 GLD gold holdings, 2020 to date (metric tonnes)
1275
1250
1225
1200
1175
1150
1125
1100
1075
1050
1025
1000
975
950
925
900
875
850
825
800
5
02/1/2 02/1/21 02/1/22 02/2/1 02/2/11 02/2/12 02/3/2 02/3/21 02/3/22 02/4/1 02/4/11 02/4/12 02/5/1 02/5/11 02/5/12 02/5/13 02/6/01 02/6/02 02/6/03 02/7/01 02/7/02 02/7/03 02/8/9 02/8/91 02/8/92 02/9/8 02/9/81 02/9/82 02/01/8 02/01/81 02/01/82 02/11/7 02/11/71 02/11/72 02/21/7 02/21/71 02/21/72 12/1/6 12/1/61 12/1/62 12/2/5 12/2/51 12/2/52
mt
source: SPDR GLD data
For a better handle on that, let’s get granular with the 2021 YTD data alone:
GLD gold holdings, 2020 to date (metric tonnes)
1240
1220
1200
1180
1160
1140
1120
1100
1080
1060
1040
1020
1000
We reiterate that this model is simple. For one thing, it has to be because I’m not a macro
expert and the moment you start getting into the issues we’re covering today, you’re up against
heavyweight economists and RockStarFinPro people who spend endless hours on the subject
and make sure everybody else knows their opinions, too. Therefore, either by cowardice or
necessity I need to keep this fixed on our central subject; gold and how its movements affect
the price of (junior) mining companies. The idea is to glean, curate, get a best-fit idea of where
the US economy is headed in the near term (and if we dare, a bit of medium-term) and move
back to talking rocks and metals. For example, I’m interested in the views of Ben Hunt (Epsilon
Theory, et al) on the way the Fed is “bound to miss inflation”, his work is always solid and has
granular data to back it up (7). Still, I also agree that if inflation does start to rear its ugly head
the Fed has any number of ways not just to tackle it or control it, but ignore it completely and if
that means Main St. gets shafted for the benefit of Wall St., that’s hardly a novel story either.
We could continue (and all mails on this subject are most welcome), but at some point The IKN
Weekly will stick to its knitting and not pretend mastery of macro. Therefore, the way forward
is to curate, find the most relevant and actionable information and run with that until proven
otherwise. Today, that is not the ranting or frustrated PM permabulls who refuse to cannot
understand why “the herd” isn’t buying precious metals hand over fist. I’ll go with El-Erian, who
has correctly identified the balancing act Jerome Powell has before him. I’ll go with Jerome
Powell, who jawboned the way he did for a reason (and FWIW, I think it was to get a bit of
steam out the market and “normalize rates” without having to move away from quasi-ZIRP). I’ll
go with Janet Yellen, who has picked up the “GO BIG” baton and is running hard with it. It’s
also impossible to believe that she and Powell are not concerting, so seeing her boost sentiment
Friday after Powell’s deflationary pinprick has another element to it, as well.
To wrap up, let’s try to put it more simply and make a few clear calls. I think we’re now at the
02/21/13 12/1/2 12/1/4 12/1/6 12/1/8 12/1/01 12/1/21 12/1/41 12/1/61 12/1/81 12/1/02 12/1/22 12/1/42 12/1/62 12/1/82 12/1/03 12/2/1 12/2/3 12/2/5 12/2/7 12/2/9 12/2/11 12/2/31 12/2/51 12/2/71 12/2/91 12/2/12 12/2/32 12/2/52 12/2/72 12/3/1 12/3/3 12/3/5
mt 7.00 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2021 YTD
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
6.20
source: SPDR GLD data
6.10
6.00
13/21 2/1 4/1 6/1 8/1 01/1 21/1 41/1 61/1 81/1 02/1 22/1 42/1 62/1 82/1 03/1 1/2 3/2 5/2 7/2 9/2 11/2 31/2 51/2 71/2 91/2 12/2 32/2 52/2 72/2 1/3 3/3 5/3
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs

bottom for the gold price slump, because the US Yields will not continue to climb until there’s
clear evidence of inflation, rather than mostly talk. Gold should rebound, meanwhile copper will
be able to do its own thing and go back to responding to its tight market, all the talk about
imminent inflation will kind of die down as gold climbs back to U$1,800/oz. Then at some point
in the medium-term future we’ll find out who is right and who is wrong about inflation but by
then, our mining stocks should have run well anyway. Or if you prefer, if you decide my to-
simplistic model is incorrect and know the detail why, but then other circumstances come along
or take control and my gold call is right for the wrong reasons, I can live with that as well .
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
The New Gold (NGD) valuation model under new market circumstances
Subject of a recent review in IKN613, when we looked at its 4q20 and year-end financials and
liked what we saw, since then New Gold (NGD) has
not been going in the direction required and I’d like
to address that today. We illustrate with the simple
2021 YTD chart for the stock and no matter how
much its fundies and 2021 guidance might appeal,
there’s no escaping a gold price sell-off and NGD
has suffered, like most others in its peer group.
This brings us to our subject; With the house 2021
forecasts largely based on Gold moving through
U$1,900/oz and to U$2,000/oz later this year, gold
at U$1,700/oz means there are plenty of price
forecasts that look optimistic compared to spot. As
for The IKN Weekly, our large PM producer on the
list is first to mind as it is most directly affected by the present day prices. Therefore, today sets
out to show how NGD the stock looks under different and lower gold prices and hopefully show
the reason why I’m still fully bullish on this stock even after its recent price rout.
In essence, the job is to tweak the model and to do that, I’ve assumed NGD guidance for 2021
along with the modest assumptions the last time we looked at the stock in IKN613 (that won’t
rock anyone’s boat, have a look if you want). I’ve also assumed that the unfortunate recent
accident at NGD’s New Afton unit and subsequent temporary mine closure at New Afton will not
affect FY21 production or sales; there’s enough flexibility on grade, throughput and sequencing
at that mine to allow them to make up any lost pounds and ounces. We then run the modelled
production through five price decks, the gold price from U$1,600/oz to U$2,000 in increments
of a hundred, then partnering each gold price in the deck is a copper price that tries to reflect
the changing market and relation of the two metals. A table of results:
New Gold (NGD): FY21 model revenues by metal type (U$m)
price deck U$1,600/oz U$1,700/oz U$1,800/oz U$1,900/oz U$2,000/oz
Au prod (oz) 288,000 288,000 288,000 288,000 288,000
U$/oz 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000
Au revs (U$m) 460.8 518.4 547.2 547.2 576.0
Cu prod (Mlbs) 68 68 68 68 68
U$/lb 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00
Cu revs (U$m) 204.0 238.0 272.0 306.0 340.0
Gross revs (U$m) 664.8 727.6 790.4 853.2 916.0
Net sales (U$m) 576.2 630.7 685.1 739.6 794.0
Sources: NGD data, IKN calcs and ests
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A straightforward valuations table seen on many occasions here. From the chart, I prefer to
move forward and consider the price deck with U$1,800/oz gold and U$4.00/lb copper (cannot
see U$1,700/oz lasting long), but we continue to use all options in our model income statement
for FY21:
New Gold (NGD): FY21 model income statement (U$m)
U$1,600/oz U$1,700/oz U$1,800/oz U$1,900/oz U$2,000/oz
Sales (U$m) 576.2 630.7 685.1 739.6 794.0
Cash COGS 230.4 236.2 239.0 241.9 244.8
Depreciation 51.8 51.8 51.8 51.8 51.8
G&A 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0
fin. Costs 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0
NSR 8.8 9.6 10.4 11.3 12.1
Op income 255.2 303.1 353.8 404.5 455.3
Exploration 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
worker part. 9.9 11.8 13.9 15.9 17.9
Eff. Tax 64.3 76.7 89.9 103.0 116.2
Net income 174.0 207.5 243.0 278.6 314.1
Shares 680.3 680.3 680.3 680.3 680.3
EPS 0.26 0.31 0.36 0.41 0.46
Capex 6 6 6 6 6
FCF 0.34 0.39 0.44 0.49 0.55
Sources: NGD data, IKN estimates
At my preferred U$1,800/oz gold price deck, NGD isn’t making as much as in the previous
model but it’s still an EPS of 36c/share now the gold hedge is off. Here’s how that translates
into a price target:
Sales & earnings model U$/oz Au prices Target price & valuation data for NGD based on
USD $1.6k/oz $1.7k/oz $1.8k/oz $1.9k $2.0k/oz FY21 company production guidance
SalesU$m 576.2 630.7 685.1 739.6 794.0 12-month target $2.86 based on 8x earnings on
Upside to target 79% FY21 & U$1,800/oz Au
EPS 0.26 0.31 0.36 0.41 0.46 Mkt cap (CAD$m) $1,088 Enterprise value $2,302
FCF 0.34 0.39 0.44 0.49 0.55 P/sales ($1.6k/oz) 1.59 EV/sales ($1.6k/oz) 3.36
P/E ($1.6k/oz) 6.3 EV/EBITDA ($1.6k/oz) 7.5
P/E ($1.8k/oz) 4.5 EV/EBITDA ($1.8k/oz) 5.7
P/E ($1.9k) 3.9 EV/EBITDA ($1.9k) 5.0
That fits in fine with the current house target of U$2.80, scheduled for the third quarter of
2021. It’s also the low end of the type of Price/Earnings (PE) multiple we should expect from a
gold stock, as NGD doesn’t have a great reserve life for Rainy River (as yet) and the debt pile
may have improved greatly, but it’s still holding financial debt which also provide drag. This
next table allows the adjustments for the other gold prices considered today, as well as two
more optimistic P/E ranges:
NGD price sensitivity (680.3m shares out)
price deck PE 8x PE 10x PE 12x
U$1,600/oz $2.05 $2.56 $3.07
U$1,700/oz $2.44 $3.05 $3.66
U$1,800/oz $2.86 $3.57 $4.29
U$1,900/oz $3.28 $4.10 $4.91
U$2,000/oz $3.69 $4.62 $5.54
source: NGD data, IKN calcs and ests
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One thing that’s different in the above table, compared to most other sensitivity tables on
companies we run on these pages, is that all the above prices are feasible and could potentially
happen. There aren’t any theory-only combinations and indeed, if gold runs as I think it will run
to U$2,000/oz this year under the right circumstances a $5.54 NGD wouldn’t surprise me at all.
Equally, if gold remains in the dumpster as the world accelerates out of the recession on
inflation that threatens to run out of control then it may end the year as low as U$2.00.
But hey, even that gives you 25% on your money this weekend.
The point should be made by now, the selling we saw last week brought many stocks down
from overbought highs, but it also threw several proverbial babies out with the bathwater. NGD
is one of them, its recent rough patch of news
not helping as it tries to re-gain momentum.
That I believe will happen with the 1q21
production and sales results, the moment when
the market finally realizes what a cash cow NGD
has turned into under CEO Adams. If you are like
me and think the gold rebound back to
U$1,800/oz and beyond is best chased by small
and medium sized producers with cash flow and
profits, look no further for the excellent leverage
NGD also brings to the table. The model works at
lower prices and today’s stock can justify even
lower gold and still be profitable. Meanwhile,
upside potential is very strong as NGD moves
through the gears in 2021, as long as gold accompanies NGD could double or triple again.
And a more complete addendum on Wesdome Gold (WDO.to)
I’ve done the “oh yeah, still watching WDO thanks goodbye!” one too many times in recent
weeks, a little justification is in order. While on the subject and further to the comparatives this
desk watches between the two stocks (e.g. IKN613), please find some of the WDO charts and
tables to demonstrate why, even this weekend, I’m still on the side of New Gold (NGD) and
prefer the exposure it gives me to the medium-sized producer sector. Again, we consider WDO
in light of its recent sell-off because this weekend’s C$8.21 looks booth cheap and tempting as
long as gold hold its ground.
Much in the way of NGD, here’s forecast guidance which assumes a steady state 12 months
from the time Kiena is online and the company is running at 200,000 oz gold per year. In the
case of WDO the price assumptions are more straightforward, as apart from very minor silver
credits this is a gold producer. We then use our previous forecasts and do all the calculations in
US Dollars, applying them to the same five gold prices (no copper):
8

Wesdome Gold: Condensed income statement (U$m)
U$1,600/oz U$1,700/oz U$1,800/oz U$1,900/oz U$2,000/oz
Sales (U$m) 277.4 294.7 312.0 329.4 346.7
Cash COGS 120.0 124.0 126.0 128.0 130.0
Depreciation 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0
G&A 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
fin. Costs 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
NSR 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.3
Op income 125.2 138.2 153.3 168.4 183.4
Exploration 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
worker part. 3.8 4.2 4.7 5.2 5.6
Eff. Tax 22.9 25.4 28.3 31.2 34.2
Net income 91.5 101.6 113.3 125.0 136.6
Shares 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0
EPS 0.65 0.73 0.81 0.89 0.98
Capex 6 6 6 6 6
FCF 0.81 0.88 0.97 1.05 1.13
Sources: WDO.to data, IKN estimates
Though we never know what a company is going to do with its generated cash until it does
something, at this point we assume WDO to be a steady state producer and worthy of a target
price based squarely on net earnings projections. Also its corporate nature of low debt with long
life assets means it can and does command better PE multiples to NGD, its range starting at
12X (where NGD leaves off) and can move to 16X when there’s real appetite for the stock.
Therefore, awarding WDO a 12X PE to its expected earnings on average U$1,800/oz gold in
2021 gives us this target:
Sales & earnings model U$/oz Au prices Target price & valuation data for WDO.to based on
USD $1.6k/oz $1.7k/oz $1.8k/oz $1.9k $2.0k/oz 200k/annum model year economics
Sales (U$m) 277.4 294.7 312.0 329.4 346.7 12-month target $12.14 based on 12x earnings on 200k
Upside to target 48% prod year & U$1,800/oz Au
EPS 0.65 0.73 0.81 0.89 0.98 Mkt cap (CAD$m) $1,149 Enterprise value $1,069
FCF 0.81 0.88 0.97 1.05 1.13 P/sales ($1.6k/oz) 3.68 EV/sales ($1.6k/oz) 3.43
P/E ($1.6k/oz) 12.6 EV/EBITDA ($1.6k/oz) 7.6
P/E ($1.8k/oz) 10.1 EV/EBITDA ($1.8k/oz) 6.3
P/E ($1.9k) 9.2 EV/EBITDA ($1.9k) 5.8
That’s where we are today, a market in which gold rebounds from its current oversold
U$1,700/oz but makes no further progress in the year, while WDO execute as expected. At
48% it’s certainly an attractive return, but the 79% offered by NGD in what I believe to be
easier circumstances to achieve its that much more appealing. This comes from the numbers
but it also comes from common sense, as NGD is still a debt-laden company and with a lot to
prove if it wants to make its main asset a long-life mine, while WDO is now a low cash cost gold
producer with (in practical terms) no debt and delivering on all plans. NGD is going to offer me
more leverage and that is what I want from my intermediate goldie, it also gives a distinct
advantage as the price of gold rises.
At NGD, the extreme case on the sensitivity table gave a U$5.54 price target (+246%) but in
the case of WDO, even in the extreme circumstance of a 16X P/E and U$2,000/oz gold WDO.to
“only” rises to C$19.14 on the house model. That’s still a 133% gain and a pretty penny from
this weekend’s C$8.21, no holder of WDO would walk away unhappy from such a price move.
My point concerns context and today, there’s not enough to tempt me away from NGD and into
WDO.to. As well as being a more expensive stock, WDO also has a lot of assumed success
9

baked into the development and commissioning phase at Kiena, which the market now assumes
will begin mid-2021 and begin to pour gold by the end of the year. CEO Middlemiss & Co are
world class mine builders and operators and we’re not putting that end of the company in doubt
for a second, but this is mining and very few plans plan survive contact with the enemy that
should give at least some pause.
But it doesn’t have to be a straight swap, the option to own both exists and I’ve been giving
serious thought again this weekend to buying back into WDO. It’s a top performing company
that ticks all the boxes for happy ownership in this sector, it’s now at a significant discount to its
2020 or even 2021 highs and on a personal level, it’s exactly the type of company I like to
sponsor with my money, good people doing mining right and creating wealth for all
stakeholders. Amen. Portfolio diversification also brings some advantage, though again
personally the risk I take in holding NGD is countered by other parts of the overall portfolio,
that’s not just a see-saw or binary situation between two stocks. I digress. Ultimately this is a
marketplace and it’s all about price and there is a number (with a 7-handle, FWIW) that would
bring me forward as a buyer of WDO. Either that or perhaps in the medium-term future, if the
market rebounds and WDO lags its relative value then becomes too good to ignore but today
and for my money (literally), we’re not at that moment. Your money, circumstances and risk
appetite may think differently and if you do and you hold WDO, I wish you only the best of all
success because chances are that if WDO moves up strongly, so does New Gold. Just that I
think NGD will move more .
A final chart: You don’t get the 12 month comparative (because NGD wins by a mile), but the
last five days of NGD, WDO.to and GDXJ as control shows precious little between the three
lines.
We await WDO’s annuals, post-close on March 10th with the ConfCall the next day, Thursday
March 11th (webcast link here (8)). There will surely be differences between the IKN model for
Wesdome’s Q4, if they are enough to change the call on the stock you will hear about it first.
Stocks to Follow
Most of the 14 positions left open after our recent sales went down last week, with just two of
the list winners on the week (TMQ, TORO.v) and two others unchanged (SMD.v, AUL.v). That
means ten losers, but as there’s now a rebound baked into the juniors the action wasn’t a
worry. The only double figure percentage losers last week were Mene Inc (MENE.v down 15.6%
and not a mining company) and Excelsior (MIN.to down 12.5% and out of fashion on thin
volume). All the others gave minor losses well inside trading ranges and in general, stocks on
our list are showing good downside resistance to the field. Buying quality helps.
10

With the bigger mining stocks rebounding on Friday afternoon, we can expect the knock-on into
the Tier 2 and junior sectors in the days ahead.
With the thinning out of companies last weekend and the sale of KUYA, NOM and ECU, we are
down to 14 open positions on the Stock to Follow list, one below our maximum. Six of our
stocks are in the green, eight are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.50 152.4% New $1.14 tgt Aug'20 #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.74 -3.6% $1.58 tgt, bot again Nov'20
Recommended stocks (In order of preference)
Copper Mountain CMMC.to STR BUY C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$2.98 125.0% Added Dec'20, trade for FY21
Trilogy Metals TMQ STR BUY U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$2.23 16.8% Added Dec'20, Cu for 2021
Strategic Metals SMD.v STR BUY C$0.40 31-Jan-21 C$0.38 -5.0% Asset $ trade, proj generator
New Gold NGD STR BUY U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$1.60 113.2% 3q20 tgt $2.80
Excelsior Mining MIN.to STR BUY C$0.98 10-Mar-19 C$0.82 -4.1% Added again Dec'20, Cu'21
Royal Road Min. RYR.v BUY C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.37 145.2% Model paying off in Nica
Great Bear Res GBR.v BUY C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$13.98 -10.0% M&A major tgt, added IKN590
Orezone ORE.v BUY C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$0.94 26.6% M&A window or re-rate later
Aurelius Res AUL.v spec buy C$0.075 28-Jun-20 C$0.045 -40.0% 1st assays promising, spec buy
Pucara Gold TORO.v hold C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.27 -59.2% Strike One
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.14 -25.6% hold until further news
Long-term non-mining hold
Mene Inc. MENE.v LT Hold C$0.65 6-Dec-20 C$0.54 -1.5% LT bet on jockey&horse,will add
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Mining NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -50.3% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 16.3% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 41.0% Cut Peru exposure
2015 to 2020 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for some notes on covered stocks:
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to): Thursday was no
fun at all and the stock at the centre of my screen
that day was CMMC, as I didn’t even expect it to
go under $3.00 again. Copper’s dumpage
therefore got me going over (and over) on the
long case and while I didn’t buy, sometimes
keeping one’s hands well away from the controls
is the best option. Friday was a far more pleasant
and the way in which CMMC led the juniors and
mid-tiers into the rebound confirmed its high
visibility level. It didn’t make it back over $3.00 by
week’s end, that should get solved quickly
enough. At $4.00/lb copper, CMMC should be a lot
higher than this.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): I met up with CEO Alex Black for a coffee on Friday afternoon and we
talked almost pure politics (Peru, Chile, other), but along the way he was at pains to mention
the financing for Fenix is on track and they expect the process to close smoothly. We might not
11

get a formal note to the public market before the end of this month, but only for legal/logistics
type reasons (Covid-19 slows things down, period). No details, but the company apparently has
more than one option on the table for a major part of the raise, therefore they are making sure
they pick and go with the right one. Previously, the schedule was “done by end Q1, an
announcement by April”. The altered timeline would have me estimating “done by April, an
announcement April or May” but the most important point needs the most underscoring: RIO.v
will raise all the money it needs to build Fenix (and then do it).
Bottom line: We await official word of the financing and state of play as regards permitting and
project green-lighting. Those will re-rate the company (and permanent this time), at which
point the company can start to add real value. Fully confident of success, the right team doing
the right project in the right country, Top Pick.
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): MIRL filed its month to CSE and the news is the low amount of gold
shipped from Corihuarmi:
MIRL: 2019/20 Corihuarmi gold prod & shipments, per month
12
9681 7051 3751 7902 7322 0731 6291 6662 3281 7412 0091 9581 4181 5261 6571 1602 4931 5641 5122 3102 9141 3122 0342 9871 3312
899
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500 1000
500
0
91naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 02naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 12naj bef
Oz Au
contained oz
shipments
source: CSE
That 998 oz is the worst month since forever, but the company was quick to point out that the
“second February gold pour” happens on March 6th. This makes it the first gold pour in March
and only one shipment from the mine in Feb, which means we should look for a bumper March
to bring the whole quarter up to guidance. The other things that are a little late are those extra
contained ounces are that were put on pad in 4q20, they should be showing as extra
production by now. The March monthly activities report will reveal more, but that’s not until
after Easter. It’s not a big cause for concern and these heap-leachers are allowed to have a low
production month, nut not two or three. In the meanwhile, the radio silence for stakeholders
continues. Any similarity between 2021’s “We can’t say much, now Haywood is our financial
advisor” and 2017/8/9/2020’s “We can’t say much, now the COFIDE arbitration is underway” is
of course purely coincidental.
Trilogy Metals (TMQ): One of only two risers on the week for the list, TMQ did better than
the others basically because it got all its selling out the way the week before .

Aurelius Minerals (AUL.v): Here’s an example of “hard market to please”, Aurelius came out
with a positive NR and more good drill hits from Aureus East on Monday March 1st (9),
arguably the best to date and pushing the company along the line of its proof of concept. The
headline cut was 9.6m at 14.0 g/t Au, which included 0.7m at 182.4 g/t Au, exactly the type of
return CEO Mark Ashcroft was looking for from this saddle zone exploration. They have
vectored in on the sweet spot and it’s grading up to best expectations. Check out the VG photos
on that link, here we’ll steal just one graphic, it gives the best visual feel of what AUL achieved
last week in its NR:
And what say the CEO?
“…we have laterally expanded the width of the Zone 9 high-grade gold zone. A fan of
six drill holes has encountered the zone where it was projected to occur. This zone is
approximately 65m below the existing underground infrastructure and we have
significantly increased its width, length, and thickness. The drill results demonstrated
the presence of veins with a homogenous distribution of coarse gold mineralization;
this greatly helps in our understanding of the overall mineralization patterns and
geometry of the deposit."
Indeed, this hit must have made them feel very good about the project and its future and if this
had been an NR in July 2020, you wouldn’t have
seen the share price for dust. Instead, the
market rewarded it with a half cent blip that
didn’t even last two days. We are in an illiquid
exploreco that’s getting no traction in a thin and
suddenly nervous market, however same
exploreco is returning exactly the type of
exploration results you hoped for when getting
on board. The answer to this is simple; we hold,
as the market cannot ignore many other results
like that of last week before it reacts. Others may
have the right combination of risk tolerance,
spare cash and patience to pick a few more up at
this level, I’m not one of them but what I do
know is that selling now is the worst call of all.
Mene Inc (MENE.v): I may buy a few of these next week and average down. If so, it would
be a modest purchase at or around this current discounted 54c level, no way do I pay up. The
strategy around this stock is long-term and I’m on the record as wanting to add slowly along
the way. With cash back as a meaningful part of my portfolio, I could spare a small amount if
13

the price is right. As for company news, don’t expect much, MENE is still in its quiet pre-annuals
period and that still has a while to go.
The Copper Basket
After nine weeks of 2021, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 20.30% to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.08 104.67 711.76 6.80 11.8%
2 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 1.81 207.5 618.35 2.98 64.6%
3 Oroco Res OCO.v 1.85 185.11 338.75 1.83 -1.1%
4 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.25 64.358 265.15 4.12 26.8%
5 Western Copper WRN.to 1.57 135.6 231.88 1.71 8.9%
6 Excelsior Min. MIN.to 1.12 239.063 196.03 0.82 -26.8%
7 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.80 180.77 186.19 1.03 28.8%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.07 101.85 121.20 1.19 11.2%
9 Chakana Cop PERU.v 0.60 117.2 59.77 0.51 -15.0%
10 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.455 93.64 57.12 0.61 34.1%
11 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.115 375.17 52.52 0.14 21.7%
12 Doré Copper DCMC.v 1.00 40.938 34.39 0.84 -16.0%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.45 66.7 29.35 0.44 -2.2%
14 Crown Mining CWM.v 0.105 87.53 24.51 0.28 166.7%
15 Chibougamau CBG.v 0.165 46.695 7.00 0.15 -9.1%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 20.30%
A simple week to analyze, copper is only
The Copper Basket 2021, weekly evolution
U$9,000/tonne and the copper miners are
35%
therefore worthless. Now for the details,
30%
starting with our 15 basket components
25%
that saw just two winners and they were
20%
both good percentages as well, Amerigo
15%
(ARG.to up 15.7%) and Aldebaran (ALDE.v
10%
up 8.9%) beating down strong market
headwinds. One other stock was 5%
unchanged on the week (CWM.v) which 0%
leaves 12 losers and you don’t need those
listed one-by one. I’ll also state that no
fewer than eight of them lost between 10%
and 19% on the week, so the tide was strong going out and (nearly) all boats dropped.
The chart this week is the dailies, if it were the hourlies it would be easier to see how Thursday
14
ts1
naJ
ht01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram
source: IKN calcs

was the big down day (-2.7% in 24 hours) as the bond yield surge and dollar strength worked
their magic here, as well. Friday rebounded well and the cash market landed copper at almost
exactly U$9,000/tonne at the close, with plenty of bargain hunters with buying appetite. Also as
per the gold space, the larger producers rebounded first and fastest on Friday and by the time
it was the turn of many junior exploreco, the market had shut for the weekend. We can
therefore expect a good rebound in these stocks when the market opens for business
tomorrow, we may also see a boost to the spot price between now and then.
Your curated market report this week applauds a desk analyst as, on Tuesday March 2nd while
copper moved back up through U$4.20/lb, Commerzbank analyst Daniel Briesemann made a
good near-term call (10)
“Sentiment is still very bullish out there,” said Commerzbank analyst Daniel
Briesemann. But the rally is running ahead of fundamentals and copper will
end the year lower, he added.
Two days later, you could have bought the same contract at U$3.85 and at all prices under
U$4.00/lb while Jerome Powell spooked the market. We can argue about his end-2021 call
later. Instead let us move to the regular weekly world copper inventories section:
 We saw another increase in world aggregate inventories last week, though the 18,311
metric tonnes (mt) added was a more modest total and brings with it another hint of
supply drought. The total of the three systems comes to 305,594mt this weekend, still
drum-tight compared to previous years.
 At the SHFE, another 15,067mt was added to stocks but that’s much smaller than the
post-New Year dumps of 30k per week. This weekend’s total is 163,025mt and while in
the right direction, we need to see more lumpy stocks arrive before any thoughts of
supply drought can be rested.
 The LME saw another small add, up 2,800mt as the copper action passed it by and
stayed in Shanghai (the desk running that billion dollar Cu long must have had an
interesting Thursday). The message is the same as last weekend, the new total of
79,025mt is still near historic lows and the signal from LME is of copper’s extreme
tightness.
 At the Comex, stocks rose for the second week running and added a small 444mt,
reaching 63,544mt this weekend.
Here is the Shanghai-only inventories chart, the direction away from the stocks low is still the
right one, the doubt is now about momentum. Another big stock arrival would do it good, what
we’ve seen so far is akin to the TIPS10 yield normalization , it will need more in the tank to
make a difference.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
15
31'13ceD ht9 ht81 ht72 ht5tco ht41 dn22 5102
dr3yam
ht21 ht02 ht92 ht7bef ht71 ht62 ht4peS ht31 ht92 ht9 ht81 ht72 7102
ht5von
ht41 ht52 ht01 ht91 ht82 9102
ht6naJ
ht71 ht62 ht4gua ht31 dn22 0202ts1ram ht01 ht91 ht72 0202ht6ced ht41
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco

Now for notes on some of our basket companies:
Oroco Resources (OCO.v): Totally unfair to pick on
OCO, what with over half the basket components
down double figures last week, but I’m going to do it
anyway. We noted a couple of editions ago the
sudden surge and opined that the rest of the copper
exploreco market had just about caught up to this
stock and its big 2020 run. That allowed it to move
away from UNCH for the year for the first time, but
last week’s bond and inflation fun nipped its run in the
bud and we are back to square one.
Chakana Copper (PERU.v): Here’s the thing with PERU.v:
The time span on this chart isn’t cherry-picked; beginning after the Covid crash and then
overbought rebound had washed though, we choose this to separate PERU from that market
turmoil and also because it marks the period when the company has been drilling its program at
the Soledad project. In the period covered, PERU.v has given us no fewer than nine drill result
NRs, it has also started to pay for fundamental analysis coverage (I’m in the wrong
game…sigh…), raised well over $10m in working cap and added drill rigs to its ongoing
program. For sure, underperformance isn’t limited to PERU.v and we could point to plenty
others, including my own holdings such as MIN.to. However, MIN isn’t trying to gain the world’s
eye with multiple NRs and constant marketing noise. Not yet, anyway.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): The only stock to really buck the trend last week, ARG’s ten
day chart looks like this (right) because it was chosen as
a newsletter pick by one of the higher traffic letters. So
be it and I wish them all fortune, as long as it rains in
Chile they should do okay but the company has thrown
too many curveballs in recent times to trust too deeply.
Certainly a speculative buy option on copper but certainly
not a riskless proposition, it’s very easy to pass and
prefer Copper Mountain (CMMC.to).
PS: That Friday close looks fakey, it wouldn’t shock to
see it back under the Loonie line.
The Producer Basket
After nine weeks of 2021, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 13.66% to level stakes.
16

company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out Mkt Cap (U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 59.89 803.36 45.58 56.74 -5.3%
2 Barrick GOLD 22.78 1779.04 35.30 19.84 -12.9%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 70.51 242.99 13.89 57.17 -18.9%
4 Kirkland Lake KL 41.27 272.984 9.34 34.22 -17.1%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 7.34 1260 8.25 6.55 -10.8%
6 Pan American PAAS 34.71 210.17 6.48 30.85 -11.1%
7 Endeavour Min EDV.to 29.62 246.2 5.06 24.65 -16.8%
8 B2Gold BTG 5.60 1064 4.79 4.50 -19.6%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 8.75 392.73 3.02 7.68 -12.2%
10 Pretium Res PVG 11.48 187.254 1.89 10.11 -11.9%
Prices in U$ except EDV.to (share price in CAD$ and mkt cap in approx USD) Port. avg -13.66%
A better week for the larger producers, which finally managed to shrug off the gold price
weakness and stage their pre-emptive rebound. We got eight winners (NEM, GOLD, AEM, KL,
KGC, EDV.to, BTG, AGI) and two losers (PAAS, PVG) from our ten with the best up from Alamos
(AGI up 8.2% on a rebound from the previous week) and Barrick (GOLD up 6.4%, again
indicative of new money coming into the sector). The worst performer was Pan American (PAAS
down 6.6%) as that followed silver rather than the equities market. Our basket did better than
the GDX benchmark and the gap is down to 1.89%, though still well underwater.
The 2021 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and 4%
comparative to GDX control
0%
-4%
-8%
-12%
-16%
-20%
There are secondary reasons for this regular weekly segment, but the main idea behind The
Producer Basket is to provide constant reference to our sector of focus, i.e. the junior mining
companies and this week’s signal is a prime example of why we bother. The way in which the
market (Dow etc), PM miners (GDX) and our basket (even better than GDX) rallied last week is
suggestive of a sector that’s got too cheap and is ready to be bought. We would want to see
money coming in top-down via the usual inlets (GDX, then the Tier 1s such as NEM and GOLD
and that’s what we saw. Here’s a list:
Gold (GLD proxy): Down 1.67% on the week
Juniors (GDXJ proxy): Down 0.3% on the week
PM Miners (GDX proxy): Up 2.15% on the week
IKN Weekly Producer Basket (selected producers): Up 2.72% on the week
That’s what you’d want to see if the market decided on Friday that gold miners are a good idea,
this money won’t move directly into our focus sector, instead it needs to rotate in after making
a difference in the Top Tier of companies.
17
ts1
naJ
ht01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram
The 2021 Producer Basket: Percentage difference between
GDX benchmark and basket (negative = IKN basket ahead)
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
basket 1.5%
gdx control
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
source: Google, IKN Calcs
ts1
naJ
ht01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram
source: IKN calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq/TSX data

To add a splash of colour to this week’s edition, instead of comparing everything to the single
line of GDX here’s a two-day, one minute interval chart of GLD (green) compared to nine of our
ten Producer Basket stocks (all except for Pan American (PAAS), which followed silver down).
This desk posits that Friday was a doubly good day for gold, firstly because of morning reversal
in sentiment for the whole sector, then the way the market regained appetite for producer
equities, even as gold backed off. This chart bears witness to 2.5% and 3% intraday moves,
from negative to positive, in some hefty market cap companies and it was certainly refreshing
to see the gold mining stocks enjoy the full effect of that broad market rebound.
No company notes today, nor the StreamerWatch chart which showed little change from last
week, with SAND and FNV tracking GDX and Metalls (MTA.v) continuing to be slaughtered.
The Tiny Dogs
After nine weeks of 2021, the Tiny Dogs show a gain of 8.18% to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Antler Gold ANTL.v 0.205 61.348 9.82 0.16 -22.0%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.045 163.975 7.38 0.045 0.0%
Constantine Met CEM.v 0.17 45.4 10.22 0.225 32.4%
Contact Gold C.v 0.115 240.757 25.28 0.105 -8.7%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.22 40 7.00 0.175 -20.5%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.045 230.79 18.46 0.08 77.8%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.240 106.241 18.06 0.17 -29.2%
QC Copper QCCU.v 0.315 105 23.63 0.225 -28.6%
Red Pine Expl RPX.v 0.040 477.22 33.41 0.07 75.0%
Warrior Gold WAR.v 0.090 91.818 8.72 0.095 5.6%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 8.18%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least that’s the plan.
18

 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
We saw six losers (ANTL.v, BAY.v, C.v, PRG.v, QCCU.v, RPX.v), four winners (CEM.v, GDP.v,
MTU.v, WAR.v) and plenty of volatility in the tiny end of the miners’ market last week. The
biggest losers were Red Pine (RPX.v down
22.2%) and Aston Bay (BAY.v down 18.2%) as 20% Tiny Dogs, 2021 weekly tracker
the gas came out of those recent movers, to the 18%
16%
upside Constantine (CEM.v) continues to quietly
14%
add market cap value. We comment on Red Pine 12%
and its movements over the last eight trading 10%
8%
days in ‘Market Watching’, below.
6%
4%
2%
Contact Gold (C.v): After due deliberation,
0%
here’s the plan with Contact Gold (C.v). I think
this is one of the more likely explorecos to follow
and eventually buy for a win, but not before it’s
done drilling Green Springs to its satisfaction
(these are geologists after all, no way could they “leave value undiscovered” and sell early). As
the latest corporate presentation states the next drill program kicks off this month and lasts for
the quarter, we should have plenty of newsflow before the drills move over to the less
interesting Pony Creek (results have made it that way). However, there’s still no timeline to a
43-101 compliant resource or even (God forbid) a PEA or first-pass economics study. It’s not
until then that the big shareholder, Waterton, has a chance of getting this asset out from the
hands of the geologists so until C.v schedules and then delivers a resource at Green Springs, it’s
going to be watching brief only. This may mean I miss the cheapest prices, which I also suspect
are around this 10c level today, but this stock is never going to be investment grade and all we
require is to buy lower and sell higher.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It is possible that in the
future I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, but at the moment both my opinion and my wallet are strictly
neutral.
Regional politics
Brazil: Covid-19 accelerating again
19
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source: IKN calcs, TSX data

Through 2020, these pages had special level of Covid-19 contempt ready for Jair Bolsonaro,
President of Brazil and health criminal who spent all of last year hindering, rather than helping,
his country’s efforts to control the spread of the virus. From “it’s just a little cold” to “we’re all
going to get it anyway” and “People die all the die, so what?” to refusing to wear a mask even
when Covid-19 positive himself, defunding the health service and facilitating access to jungle
regions where indigenous tribes (presumably less well equipped to deal with a corona type
virus) were sitting ducks, he built a goodly list of disgusting behaviour “in the name of
freedom”.
Here in 2021 and despite the arrival of vaccines in the country, things are once again
deteriorating in Brazil and this time, it matter to us all. This week, a study group in Brazil made
up of all the peer-approved and qualified tech, science and stats people presented its findings
of the current situation regarding Covid-19 in the country (11). They were bleak, with the main
headline how without immediate implementation of serious new measures to combat the virus,
the daily death toll may reach 3,000 per day soon (Brazil population 214m, compare to USA and
331m). The team says the latest surge in cases is due to a “perfect storm” of new virus
variants, the collapse of the hospitals system and the failure of the population to maintain social
distancing through the Christmas, New Year, the main Southern Hemisphere vacation period
and finally the Carnival celebrations.
This desk also predicted another grim and emerging reality about Brazil early, that its dominant
geographical and population position in South America means that sooner or later it will infect
its neighbours. This was noted by the WHO last week, who stated in one of their daily pressers
(12) that the health crisis in Brazil affects all Latin America. Here’s the money line from the
presser (translated):
“If Brazil doesn’t take this seriously, it will affect all its neighbours and further afield, so
this isn’t just about Brazil, I believe it touches all Latin America. The Brazilian
government has to take this very, very seriously.”
Personally, I’m wondering how the title “Covid Pariah Continent” would go down with the
tourist boards of Colombia, Peru, Argentina, Uruguay etc
Peru: The field begins to narrow
It’s still difficult to make confident calls in a fast-changing Presidential campaign where the
number of undecided voters clouds the field and any opinion poll result, but the field has now
narrowed to four (perhaps five) candidates and a key piece of the puzzle was decided last week
when Peru’s authorities decided to allow back in the candidates George Forsyth and Rafael
López Aliaga on appeal, both those now make their respective tickets. There have been a few
second-level polls during the week from pollsters that tend to skew results toward the people
paying them, but no new serious polls so therefore, as the contenders are bunched so close,
let’s present them this time in order of the political spectrum, from right to left.
Right wing: Rafael López Aliaga. More than Urrestí, he is the candidate who has taken the
“Peru’s Trump” mantle. His politics are hard right wing and “RLA” Uses the tested formula for
right wing populism. He is a successful businessman (mainly hotelery), he is “Anti-politically
correct” and unafraid of “upsetting people” with “straight talk”. He runs on a free market
economy ticket and will take the hardest of lines against violent criminals, corrupt politicos etc.
He even has a multi-million dollar debt with the Peruvian taxman hanging over his business
affairs, which makes him a even closer match. Trumpian in a way, a closer match is Jair
Bolsonaro of Brazil because RLA also mixes hard line religion into his politics. With this approach
and he’s gained the momentum and a second-level poll this weekend put him in front of the
pack at 10.8% (13). His is the candidacy behind which the Lima establishment has gathered,
which means he now has a strong chance of making the second round run-off. He has money
for the campaign and a hard line message that goes down well with urban male voters.
20

Centre-Right: George Forsyth. the early frontrunner has lost all momentum and is back in the
pack, his job is to turn around a failing campaign fast and grab voter attention. Forsyth needs
his momentum back quickly, but with the campaign now gravitating to the extreme ends of the
political spectrum, one has to wonder whether this first-time candidate has the political chops
to fight what will be a dirty and negative final four weeks of campaigning. He’s not out of it and
his original intention numbers show he’s capable of attracting voters, but he’s now only a
possible for Round Two instead of a probable.
Centre: Nobody. Notably absent is any leading candidate from the centre, the populist
messages from the hard left and hard right have won out.
Centre-left: Yonhy Lescano, though as we have explained before his Left wing is socially
conservative and is not a progressive movement. He is either leader or second in all recent
polls, but not by much (the field of serious candidates starts at 12% and runs to 8%) and it’s
notable that at 12% or thereabouts, he’s now harvested the voters that went for this same
party in 2016. This suggests he has a hard ceiling of voter intention to overcome and that may
have been on his mind this weekend, when he told Peru’s main news radio station (14) that “If
necessary, I will make alliances with (other political) parties that are constructive…have projects
and serious proposals.” This was clearly a wink and a nod toward the other candidate on the
left wing, Verónika Mendoza, as Lescano’s “conservative left wing” niche isn’t going to be
enough to capture all the left votes.
Left wing: Verónika Mendoza. We have written about “Vero” quite extensively and her position
as a threat to Peru exposed investments was made clear last week, as was her position toward
mining companies when she stated while on a visit to the locality that if made President, while
understanding what type of legal problems SCCO would bring upon the country she said she
would cancel the Tia Maria concession (and got wild applause for saying so). She has been
campaigning mostly in her South Peru stronghold, but the last days have seen an uptick in
activity of her party in Lima and environs, as well as a social media push.
And that’s the likely field, we are now down to four possible in the view of this desk. There is
time for another outside to come forward and of those, Hernando de Soto is still a dark horse
that could get momentum (especially if RLA slips up). You may note that I didn’t include Keiko
Fujimori (populist right wing) as one of the reduced field, even though she too is polling the
same numbers. That’s because of her anti-vote and the slim chance she makes any progress in
the polls. Also true for Cesar Acuña (right wing) and Julio Guzmán (centre), all now look like
also-rans as the campaign enters its final weeks.
Ecuador Presidential election update
The importance of the Peru Presidential election is beginning to dawn on the regional mining
industry and it’s going to take preference as the lead political story from now until April 11th,
but we need to keep a close eye on what’s going on in Ecuador.
 The election second round is beginning to look easier to call, Andrés Arauz is now hot
favourite to become the next President. Lasso has work to do to make up the difference
in all polls, Yaku Pérez will watch from the sidelines.
 While Guillermo Lasso is “in talks” with election springer and 4th place finisher Xavier
Hervas and may manage to obtain a voter alliance, his chances of reaching agreement
with the real kingmaker, Yaku Pérez, are now remote. Without a broad band coalition,
his right wing stance is not going to win enough votes and in the specific case of Pérez,
without party direction the likely second choice of many Pachakutik voters will be for
Andrés Arauz who didn’t lose time at the start of his run-off campaign in offering a
suite of financial benefits and loan programs for Ecuador’s agro sector.
 Also unsurprising, Arauz has moved to the centre for round two and is now trying to
put as much distance between himself and his mentor, Rafael Correa, as possible. In
21

rough terms, the now polemic Correa is a vote winner for 1/3rd of Ecuador and a vote
loser for 2/3rds, therefore Arauz’s job is to convince enough of the negatives that he
isn’t under his thumb (he is, but this is politics).
 Meanwhile, Yaku Pérez has continued with his voter fraud protests and while there’s
now even more evidence the field was tilted against him, it’s also clear that he was
neatly railroaded out the way in order that Round Two would move ahead on schedule
(and with “normal politicians” as candidates). The reply to date has been constant
peaceful protests, with some road blocks in the party’s stronghold areas. He is
intelligent, careful and rarely overplays his hand. His legal battle against mining
companies in Azuay and Cuenca taught him the patience and use the mechanisms at
hand, rather than force issues on terms that authorities subsequently ignore. In other
words, he’s already playing the long game and unworried that Lasso won’t be the next
President of Ecuador.
More on Yaku Pérez: We should also remember the Cuenca referendum vote that was worded
to protect five local rivers, but whose objective was to stop mining activity from happening in
the region. As an aside, it’s notable how Yaku Pérez tried on several occasions to get a
referendum question wording past Ecuador’s courtrooms and electoral bodies before finally
finding a way (he is persistent, but the reason to mention the vote is that the question was
passed with 80.9% of the vote and is now legally binding. There’s plenty of talk (among the
Ecuador and mining chattering classes) as to how applicable that referendum finding is, but this
misses the point entirely. That referendum result is now unbreakable local law in the eyes of
the locals, it will now be impossible for any mining company to move into Cuenca and attempt
to operate without significant popular grievances against it. The minor level roadblocks set up in
the Pachakutik controlled areas are a taster of what is to come, this is no longer about a simple
election result, Ecuador will be ungovernable from its seat of power and even there, the
Pachakutik congressional bloc size means they are a significant political force for the first time
ever.
Pérez is moving forward with his vote fraud claims, but it’s not going to bear fruits before the
next government or change the round two make up (or result). He is more about shoring up his
new and significant support by largely ignoring the comings and goings of the Round Two
campaign. “Why should I back any candidate, when I should be in round two and they backing
me?” is his argument, which is coherent enough. Meanwhile, the Pachakutik party resistance to
the Round One result is mostly via legal avenues, but core supporters are now running
regimented roadblocks in the South of the country (with pass times to allow some traffic
through. More important for Pachakutik/CONAIE than any passage to round two of not, the
party is already setting up social resistance and will make governability between difficult and
impossible for any national government (especially one that tries to impose itself).
The other part of Yaku Pérez’s life that needs mentioning is the split between CONAIE (the
main indigenous umbrella group, made up of indigenous pressure groups of all types from all
parts of the country and with its own leadership committee) and Pachakutik (the CONAIE
political party, now led by him). Rivalry and jealousy among the ranks of CONAIE concerning
the rise of Yaku Pérez means a significant fraction of CONAIE voters, particularly from the
North, are likely to join with Arauz in Round two. There is and will always be plenty of Place
Intrigue around CONAIE. As for the re-count, when the eventual extremely watered-down
version of just 31 ballot boxes was done it improved the vote count of Yaku Pérez by 612 votes
and as the man pointed out himself, that result repeated over the 27,000 ballot boxes
previously identified with count discrepancies would put him into the run-off easily (14).
The bottom line: Andrés Arauz is now hot favourite to be next President of Ecuador and while
those exposed to the mining sector there may celebrate the fact, they should be careful for
what they wish for. This election resolved little and raised more serious questions about the
future of the formal mining industry in the country, the pro and contra sides now set on
collision course. Avoid exposure to mining in this country like the plague.
22

Argentina: Chubut and Navidad back on deck
The last time we looked, Chubut’s provincial government under Governor Arcioni tried to push
through the so-called Zonification law project that would allow the Pan American Silver (PAAS)
Navidad project to go ahead. In the end the attempt was abandoned, as Arcioni realized he
didn’t have the requisite 14 of 27 votes in parliament, but the issue is about to come up again
this month. This report in local media ADNSur (8)
https://www.adnsur.com.ar/chubut/sociedad/el-gps-en-modo--recalculando---la-mineria-hizo-explotar-todos-los-bloques-
en-la-legislatura-y-el-ano-empezo-con-un-nuevo-rompecabezas-_a6042b357fe058b41af173004
dissects the political upheavals in Chubut’s parliament caused by the “zonification” project for
the Chubut Meseta region, the scandals and the way the votes have gone to date and also
plenty of background to the players and the wider context of mining politics in the province.
This article goes into the weeds, so working Spanish language is not all you’ll need to follow its
arguments (Google Translate won’t be enough) but the final paragraph sums up the situation
as stands today. Here’s my translation of the narrative as we pick it up with the failed
extraordinary session of February 2021, that was pulled because Governor Arcioni realized he
didn’t have enough votes.
“…the result was another failure to put forward the project, which has left everything in
suspense for two weeks from now, when (Chubut parliament’s) scheduled ordinary
sessions will re-start after the summer recess. The Zonification Project has official
backing and it’s only left to see whether it is included in parliament’s Order of the Day.
If the government believes its majority is still in doubt, it won’t risk the vote and the
potential death of the law project. It will be another inflection point, with the reactivation
of strong protests from those in society against the law project. The question is how
much more time this issue without resolution continues to shadow the government
agenda, blocking the passage of other issues that are crucial for the progress of State
policies.”
The local reporter on the case knows his patch and understands the long game of attrition
being played at parliamentary level. At some point, the Zonification project becomes too much
of a burden for Governor Arcioni, who will then drop it in order to “get other things done” and
remove a vote loser from his CV before it’s too late. Bottom line: Chubut, Arcioni and President
Fernández are going to try again on Navidad in the next two or three weeks, but if it doesn’t
pass this time Navidad goes back on ice and that’s bad news not just for PAAS, but for the
example the green-lighting of this project would give to the rest of the country and the outside
world. As mentioned previously, it’s now dawned on Argentina’s environmentalist movement
that this issue Gordian Knot qualities, being in a province with a current ban on mining and a
big-ticket project, all the water-versus-jobs debate is laid out in this case. For Argentina’s
Mining Secretary Alberto Hensel, Navidad would provide the catalyst for plenty of other projects
to go ahead and the national government needs a win on its national federal mining policy
drive.
Market Watching
Regarding Excelsior Mining’s (MIN.to) share price underperformance
Rather than cramp this in the Stocks to Follow notes section, it gets more space to develop the
argument here. Two things:
 Copper has been great in 2021
 Excelsior Mining (MIN.to) shares have not
Both simple, both true and now for a comparative price chart;
23

Matching MIN against the main copper producer ETF (COPX) for the last six months shows the
moment when MIN started to play catch-up in November 2020 on release of the “our well is
working” NR. From there and for perhaps three months the lines matched each other, then
came February and the obvious bifurcation. Though there was some divergence on slightly
improved volume coming into February (around that Crux Investor hit piece full of rubbish), the
chart makes it plain that MIN.to’s financing process has been a major drag on the share price.
We therefore need to re-cap on the financing process which started on February 10th when MIN
announced (15) a bought deal to sell 21.1m units (unit = one share plus a whole warrant at
$1.25 that’s good to August 22nd 2022) at C$0.95 apiece to raise C$20m. That was almost
immediately bumped up to 29m units and by the time it had closed just 12 days later, “…the
Company issued a total of 33,350,000 Units at a price of C$0.95 per Unit for gross proceeds of
C$31,682,500.” In other words, a popular listing and well attended by instos, but at the same
time the “normal” type of shorts were placed on the issue while the process went through.
Those, plus the hefty discount to open market that 95c represented at the time, sank the stock.
However, MIN also suffered a case of bad timing because by pulling the trigger, it missed the
big upsurge in copper stock interest as the metal ran hard and above U$4.00/lb. That brings us
to today, with spot copper over
U$9,000/tonne and MIN dragged down
even further last week by the broad
market winds. There’s also a new aspect
to take into account, as trading in the
newly minted warrants has started.
Traded volume in these warrants has also
been good, with a daily average of over
250k and 155k traded on Friday and, as
there are 33.5m of these papers with an 18 month time limit on the strike price, this channel
may prove a popular one for trading the stock in the next few months. And with the market
mechanisms considered, we arrive at the point to make.
The bottom line is that MIN.to is still an exceptionally cheap stock and a great way to get
longer-term exposure on copper at a deep discount. The trading we’ve seen so far this year
does not reflect on the company itself, it’s been all market stuff to date and most of that
dragged on equity. But near-term market effects wear off and when they do, MIN will be sitting
pretty with a well that works, a SX/EW that works and a treasury full of cash. I’m not in this
stock for the trade effects, this is a drop dead fundies bargain and when those fundamentals
show in production, we’ll get our long overdue re-rate. MIN has suffered from bad timing and
such things are transitory compared to the copper they will extract.
The Peru market tracker ETF (EPU) is an alternative play on the country
Designed to mimic the country’s main IGBVL index on the Lima stock market, here’s the five
year chart of New York traded EPU:
24

As the BVL has plenty of mining and related industry stocks on its list, you’d expect it to do well
in a positive metals environment so in the long-term, I am bullish on EPU’s prospects. This brief
segment today is more about the near-term and as this second chart shows, Friday saw
somebody who was keen to get rid of at least some of their Peru exposure via EPU.
Red Pine Exploration Redux (RPX.v): Another that requires a little more space than in its
usual segment, Red Pine (RPX.v) had something of a 15 minutes of fame with weekly coverage
last week, first the Flash Update on the Tuesday of its game-changing news, then main feature
event in IKN614. Here’s a ten day chart:
The ramp to 9c was fast and last weekend I said so, but that doesn’t suddenly negate what
CEO Yarie and his team has managed to achieve in this corporate turnaround. They have full
control of the asset and like it so much that they’ve brought in a big name chair and the CEO
has dropped all other projects. The deal financing will close fully and easily, so seeing the stock
trade back at 6c and even 5.5c for a while last week only goes to show how this strange
subsector can throw out bargains when you least expect. Seeing a few speculators leave and
take profits on Monday was logical and understandable, the rest of the week was an object
lesson in how liquidity is important and there are always a segment of the investment
25

community who will take any old price if you prod them enough.
Final thoughts on the price of silver and futures trading
Further to the piece at this time last week (which also made it to the blog by request and was
the most popular post of the week), here’s the last six months of the Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR):
There’s very little in that chart to suggest a weak silver price in the near future. There is the
recent selling compared to gold that pushed the GSR back up to 67X, but it’s difficult to hang a
bear call on such flimsy evidence after nearly six months of silver over gold.
Though many on the outside of the newsletter may doubt it (and let them), in fact I’m not
bearish on silver’s prospects in 2021. Quite the opposite, the macro has come right for the
metal and the combination of demand and dollar should push the price higher in the medium-
term. However, don’t confuse the prospects of the metal itself to the insane trading antics being
heaped on silver’s shoulders by fools with more money than sense. Here’s another chart to help
clear up the differences:
Put spot copper (HG00), gold (GC00 instead of the normal GLD proxy) and silver (SI00 instead
of the normal SLV proxy) together on a two year chart and stare at it for a while, you’ll see how
silver’s Jekyll and Hyde characteristics come out; Sometimes when it suits, silver likes to be a
precious metal (2q20 and 3q20). Other times it gets a double whammy from being both
precious and base metal (3q20), while in other periods it ignores gold and acts like a base
metal. All when it best suits, silver gets to have its cake and eat it but as any student of the
market knows, equal and opposite forces will also eventually apply. The above illustrates a
strongly bullish period for silver but even here, we can recognize in technical form the
fundamental arguments laid out last week, how the return market for silver bullion and its lack
26

of appeal for Central Banks (c’est vous) cause the volatility.
Ultimately, the silver subsector doesn’t attract my investment money because a) the underlying
metal will always be volatile b) I can get the same upside leverage from base metals companies
and c) by the silver a silver run has started, the stocks are already wildly expensive and there’s
always more value to be found in the copper sector. Silver may be loved by some as a solution
to the problem, a way of covering both base and precious metals markets. Not for me, instead
it falls between two stools, the gold and copper sectors will always make more appeal.
Conclusion
IKN615 is done, we end with bullet points:
 At U$1.60, New Gold (NGD) will be a great way of playing the upcoming gold rebound,
even if it doesn’t have much impetus (to begin with) and only gets us back to
U$1,800/oz. Plenty of fundamental backbone to the price today.
 Sell Peru and sell Ecuador. In the case of the former, the uncertainty is the issue, in the
case of the latter once you’ve sold never go back.
 Copper and gold are still great investments for 2021.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.pdac.ca/convention/registration
(2) https://www.pdac.ca/convention/programming/International-Stage
(3) https://nbcmontana.com/news/coronavirus/treasury-secretary-janet-yellen-says-congress-needs-to-go-big-for-relief-
package
(4) https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/janet-yellen-says-higher-treasury-yields-signal-recovery-
not-inflation/articleshow/81361276.cms?
(5) https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/23/business/dealbook/janet-yellen-dealbook.html
(6) https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/janet-yellen-plays-down-inflation-fears-amid-surge-in-us-govt-
bond-yields-11614990300053.html
27

(7) https://www.epsilontheory.com/a-change-in-the-water/
(8) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wesdome-announce-2020-fourth-quarter-123000280.html
(9) https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/2058-tsx-venture/aul/94210-aurelius-
minerals-extends-new-high-grade-gold-zones-at-aureus-east-gold-project-drills-9-6m-at-14-0-g-t-gold-including-0-7m-
at-182-4-g-t-gold.html
(10) https://www.reuters.com/article/global-metals/metals-coppers-rally-may-be-back-on-as-prices-steady-above-9000-
idUSL2N2L00W5
(11) https://www.lanacion.com.ar/el-mundo/brasil-al-limite-estiman-que-puede-llegar-a-haber-3000-muertos-diarios-si-
no-se-toman-medidas-nid05032021/
(12) https://www.msn.com/es-pe/noticias/mundo/oms-sobre-crisis-sanitaria-en-brasil-afectar%c3%a1-a-toda-
am%c3%a9rica-latina/ar-BB1ejf4r?ocid=msedgdhp
(13) https://www.encuestas.com.pe/encuesta-presidencial-idice-05marzo-2021/
(14) https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-2021-yonhy-lescano-si-es-que-se-requiere-voy-a-hacer-alianzas-con-
partidos-que-construyan-noticia-1324559?ref=rpp
(15) https://ecuadortoday.media/2021/03/01/opinion-612/
(16) https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/02/10/2173577/0/en/Excelsior-Mining-Announces-C-20-Million-
Bought-Deal-Financing.html
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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