IKN #614Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 614, February 28th 2021
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, Gold and the United States Dollar, BLS jobs.
Fundamental Analysis: Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v) transforms.
Stocks to Follow: Norsemont Mining (NOM.cse), Kuya Silver (KUYA.cse), Element 29
Resources (ECU.v), Fiore Gold (F.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Great Bear
Resources (GBR.v), Minera IRL (MIRL.cse), New Gold (NGD).
Copper Basket: Overview, Marimaca Copper (MARI.to), Regulus Resources (REG.v), Oroco
Resources (OCO.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Kirkland Lake (KL), StreamerWatch.
Tiny Dogs: Overview, Contact Gold (C.v), Manitou Gold (MTU.v).
Regional Politics: Peru Presidential election 2021: The madness begins, Updating the Ecuador
presidential election, Tracking Chile and Peru Covid-19 cases (seventh and final week), Mexico:
No red lights for Covid-19, The “VIP Vaccines” scandals spread across the continent.
Market Watching: Fiore Gold (F.v) 1q21 financials, The price of silver and futures trading.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
“
In today’s edition
 We check out the ongoing mess in Ecuador’s election and watch as the Peruvian
election campaign veers left
 We consider the re-structuring around Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v), subject of our
Flash update on Tuesday (see Appendix 1)
 We consider the big and negative moves in gold, copper and…yes, silver too.
 Other things, too.
Gold and the United States Dollar
To state just once today and for the record, I was right in my call to lower exposure to gold last
weekend. That done, last week reminded us that, no matter how influential it might be on
mining stocks and other metals, the price of gold is behest to the US Dollar. It was also a solid
reminder not to fight the Fed, but that’s getting a little ahead of ourselves.
We’re a month into a Democrat Party presidency and suddenly, after what seems like years
(because it was), the market is worried about inflation again. What a shock. Last week and
using that theme we saw a reversal of fortunes for the US Dollar, a rally off the trend coming
from market voicing increasing concerns about inflation. However, in the backwards world of
the markets inflation doesn’t mean paying more for gold or having a weaker currency, quite the
opposite in fact. To illustrate, we dust off an old friend of a chart that compares the gold price
to the 10 year TIPS rate:
1

The relationship is obvious enough, but our main area of interest is to the right of the chart in
the shaded recession zone (Covid-19 and all that). We know bond yields collapsed last year,
which was conducive to gold buying. However, the increased inflation fears stemming from the
weak dollar and near-ZIRP policies that the Fed says will be around for a long time has seen
bonds rally, reaching a head last week when market interpreted the yield rush as a signal of
returning economic power, recovery and the same pattern we saw in 2013 (when yields rallied
from 1.7% to over 3% and gold collapsed, see chart above)
In other words, the bearish line on inflation fears and gold says that before gold can benefit
from a rising price due to inflation, it has to play second fiddle for a while to its nemesis and
classic cash suck, the bonds market. At some point, real price inflation then lands on Main St
and gold goes up as well, but before it has to go through a period of unpopularity as other
vehicles offer better near-term returns. And that is what I believe the market got wrong last
week; the “taper tantrum” did happen and the market reacted in its knee-jerk way, but even
though the move in bond yields was big, it’s still at too low a rate to be fully attractive as a
alternative to gold. What we saw last week was NOT uncontrollable inflation rearing its ugly
head, if so we’d see yields running to 3% then 4 and 5. Last week was normalization, it was the
dollar coming off zero and returning to offering a modest yield, as the national and international
economies comes out of recession. In other words, nothing to be afraid about until inflation
really shows, so far its pure talk.
As for the near future and how this will play out for gold, the best place to look is not gold. The
bond yield rally and taper tantrum caused more serious selling in the equities market and that is
something the Fed cannot afford to mess with. In order to get money flowing away from USD
devices and back into stocks, the Fed can apply several tools but the most likely is to extend its
bond purchase program. This has proven to be effective in controlling macro money supply
before, they’ll use it again and when they do you’ll hear “don’t fight the Fed” as stocks return to
their upward trajectory. That will be the cue for gold to return to its upward trajectory as yields
level (and perhaps drop back).
BLS Jobs
Some US Jobs reports are more important than others, the one coming up on Friday has the
potential to move markets in either direction. A date for daytraders to keep in the back of the
mind, our touchstone site for US macro, Calculated Risk, reports (1) consensus at +148k NFP
jobs added and an unemployment rate that rises from 6.3% to 6.4%.
2

Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v) transforms (all prices in CAD$ unless stated)
Subject of the Flash update during the week (see Appendix 1), on Tuesday February 23rd Red
Pine Exploration (RPX.v) on Tuesday announced to the market the news it has waited to give
for over five years (2):
Red Pine Exploration Inc. (TSX-V: RPX) (“Red Pine” or the “Company”) is pleased to
announce that it has entered into a definitive securities purchase agreement (the
“Agreement”) with the holders of the partnership interests in Citabar Limited Partnership
(“Citabar”), which will result in Red Pine consolidating a 100% ownership in the Wawa Gold
Project located near Wawa, Ontario (the “Transaction”).
Along with the main news, RPX offered a bullet point list of the major company changes that
happen along with the deal. A good list, we copypaste:
 Red Pine to consolidate 100% ownership in the Wawa Gold Project, which has
historically been subject to fragmented ownership
 Transaction to be completed based on the market-implied read-through value of
Citabar’s interest
 Red Pine to conduct a private placement of subscription receipts for gross proceeds of
a minimum of $11.2 million and a maximum of approximately $15.0 million to fund the
cash consideration for the Transaction and expenses incurred and liabilities assumed
in connection with the Transaction and to fund working capital and general corporate
purposes (pursuant to the terms of the Transaction)
 Pursuant to the terms of the Transaction, Red Pine will also use best efforts to
complete a $5 million flow-through subscription receipt financing to aggressively
explore the consolidated property, which hosts numerous historic mines and untested
targets, in addition to the potential at depth
 In advance of the closing of the Transaction and the financing the Company will
complete a 10:1 share consolidation
 Red Pine will strengthen its Board of Directors with the appointment of Paul Martin as
Chair
The Flash update on Tuesday suggested RPX as a bargain at its pre-halt price as the proposed
restructuring makes the baseline valuations and 4c prices for financing into a quasi-IPO
qualifying transaction. But before anything a very short paragraph of background to provide
necessary context: Citabar is the holding company of the late Barry Sherman, the Canadian
multimillionaire who was unfortunately found murdered along with his wife several years ago.
The Sherman estate has proved to be very complicated, the executors of the estate have been
working on its consolidation ever since. One of the aspects is Red Pine (RPX.v) and its Wawa
project, as it was held 60%/40% with Citabar
for many years. That changed last year with a
slight improvement to the ownership count of
63.31% RPX and 36.69% Citabar in a small
deal, but the fractured ownership continued
and was the major stumbling block for the
development of Wawa. Cut to last week and
the two sides have finally agreed to
consolidate property ownership. This makes
Wawa immediately more interesting and we
saw the reaction in the RPX stock price:
The Flash Update of Tuesday (see Appendix
1) managed to get out just as the stock was
coming off its halt and though I didn’t get any,
I know a couple of you got some 5c stock and several others got in at 6c, so that makes for a
pleasant gain in no time. That also brings us right up to date, so the rest of today’s note is
about considering what RPX is, hat they have and whether there’s a trade here at the new
baseline price, the stock closing at 9c Friday.
3

A financial overview of RPX to date
Before we race into the future of RPX, we cast an eye on its past financials as they provide
insight into the type of company and how its corporate culture works. This overview is brief and
only needs to take in balance sheet items, we begin with assets and liabilities which show the
small ticket nature of the company:
RPX.v: Assets
6
5.5
5 4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
RPX is a classic tinycap exploreco; it raises money by selling shares, it goes exploring and it
comes back and asks for money again. There’s no
capitalization, all work is expensed (as it should
be) and the resulting book value remains small.
The result is a simple corporate structure (we like
simple) with liabilities that only grow when there’s
a non-cash flow-through liability to work down and
a share count that grows fast.
Running the working capital chart as from the
start of the calendar year shows the simplicity of
this company’s finances. They raise enough for a
year, they spend it, they raise again. They’ve also
been running on a shoestring, it’s difficult to get
lower than C$200,000 per month for all-in
expenses at an exploreco that is actually out there
doing things in Canada. This efficient cash burn is
another indication of the recent years at RPX,
stifled by the lack of consolidation in the property,
raising small money in order to advance the
important but oft-overlooked geological baseline
work. The share count (right) goes up in clear jags,
the latest being 4q19 calendar when Alamos Gold
(AGI) led a 5c financing.
And that’s all there really is to know about RPX; a
small, correctly managed company with an
interesting project in Canada, its books are a checklist in what you want from this type of small
structure (aside the inevitable share dilution).
The new RPX structure
With the basic financials in place we now lay out “New RPX”, according to the terms of the deal
as announced on Friday as well as adding our interpretation wherever useful. If those
assumptions turn out to be wrong, we can always change them back. We begin by considering
the share count once the financing is closed and the 10:1 rollback is done with. Here’s a chart:
4
EY_81yluJ 81.tcO 91.naJ 91.rpA EY_91yluJ 91.tcO 02.naJ 02.rpA EY_02yluJ 02.tcO
$m fixed RPX.v: Liabilities per qtr
other current cash 2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
source: company filings
EY_81yluJ 81.tcO 91.naJ 91.rpA EY_91yluJ 91.tcO 02.naJ 02.rpA EY_02yluJ 02.tcO
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs
5 RPX.v: Working Capital per qtr
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
91.naJ 91.rpA EY_91yluJ 91.tcO 02.naJ 02.rpA EY_02yluJ 02.tcO
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
RPX.v: Shares Out
12.492 92.492
21.863 32.963 32.963 32.963
22.774 22.774 22.774 2.774
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
EY_81yluJ 81.tcO 91.naJ 91.rpA EY_91yluJ 91.tcO 02.naJ 02.rpA EY_02yluJ 02.tcO
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim

New RPX.v: Shares Out
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
5
EY_81yluJ 81.tcO 91.naJ 91.rpA EY_91yluJ 91.tcO 02.naJ 02.rpA EY_02yluJ 02.tcO 12.naJ 12.rpA EY_12.yluJ
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim
The 85.3m shares out post-rollback goes to 94.7m in real terms (shown in July column). There
are 95m warrants out, with a strike of 5c, from the December 2019 financing in which Alamos
Gold (AGI) entered the stock (AGI owns 53m of them). They don’t have acceleration clause, but
we should assume that by the end of this year they will be fully paid-up shares (and fwiw it
wouldn’t surprise to see AGI volunteering to make its 53m whole immediately). As AGI and we
quote) “…has indicated its interest in participating in the Offering to maintain its 19.99%
partially diluted interest in the Company”, it means they will need to own 189.3m shares of our
theoretical 947m shares-out total. In other words, AGI is set to take around 83m shares of the
current offering to retain their 19.99%, which is a goodly portion of the expected total sale of
375.674m scrips.
Regarding the financing, we have no doubt it will be fully subscribed to the high end (hence the
375.6m scrip assumption). As for Citabar, though the deal allows for leeway on payment and
RPX can elect to pay 100% of its dues in cash, the most likely route will be to pay the low-end
$8.6m cash and leave around $1.9m to pay in shares, at 4.23c each. That adds 4.5m shares
(4.7% of the pro-rate total) to Citabar’s 2% NSR and we’d expect them to remain as interested,
long-term minority holders considering the legacy of the property with Barry Sherman.
Therefore, between AGI, Citabar and insiders a little over 30% of the float is locked up, leaving
the rest in hands of instos and retail. That wide share base comes with its own issues, but we
can expect reasonable and liquid trading in the RPX now it has come out of the deep freeze,
even with a total share count under 100m.
As for the concurrent funding of RPX, the gross proceeds of $15m puts $14m in the RPX
treasury. To that, we can add the C$0.475m due during this year from the in-the-money 5c
warrants. Then from that, we expect them to pay the minimum $8.575m in cash to Citabar,
leaving RPX with a war chest of around $5.4m to go exploring in 2021 at their newly 100%
owned property. Putting it all together, here’s how we pro-forma New RPX that’s unlikely to be
spot on, but as a ballpark it is close enough to more accurately value New RPX stock on the
back of Wawa.
PF Shares out: 94.7m
Options: 2.2m
Warrants: Zero
Fully diluted shares: 96.9m
Current pro forma share price: C$0.90
PF Market Cap: C$85.2m
Approx cash per S/O: 5c
All prices are in Canadian States Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.80=CAD$1
We now need to consider what we get for U$68.2m or so (at the house forex), starting with its
main player and on that subject, CEO Quentin Yarie has also made his choice and is backing
RPX: Up until recently the head of Honey Badger (TUF.v) and MacDonald Mines (BMK.v, where
RPX officer Mia Boiridy has just gone to be President and CEO), Yarie has dropped his other

obligations and is now 100% focused on RPX at Wawa. A geophysicist by background, his track
record since leaving the salaried mining world has been patchy but without any scandal, he’s
well regarded in the industry (and pleasant and friendly in person).
Now for the resource at Wawa, there is already a 43-101 compliant resource count on two of
the zones so that’s where we go, these tables from the latest corporate presentation dated
February 2021. An advised download for anyone interested in this company, the link is in the
appendix at note (3). Also essential reading is the 2019 43-101 technical report, found here (4).
This table shows the current 43-101 resource for the most advanced target at Wawa, the
Surluga Deposit that includes mine shaft, old workings and plenty of high grade gold. Notes
below:
 Using a gold cut-off of 2.7g/t, RPX reports 601k oz gold in all categories (I can add ‘em
up, they can’t). That’s a sturdy cut-off for a mid-range grading UG deposit and erring to
the cautious.
 It’s worth checking the math on the cut-off, because even before the big move in gold
RPX knew it could lower it to 2.7g/t Au these days and include more gold.
 Notice that RPX assumes a gold price of CAD$1,600/oz (U$1,200) and forex of 1.33CAD
to 1USD), then recoveries of 90%. By that math RPX assumes it will get CAD$46.30 for
each gram of gold it owns in rock. It then assumes a reasonable Op-Ex of C$125/tonne,
comprising of $85/t mining, $25/t milling and $15/t G&A (again, reasonable ball-
parking) and that allows the cut to drop to 2.7g/t.
 Indeed, the price of gold is higher than C$1,600/oz these days . In fact, even after
last week’s drop we are still over CAD$2,200/oz spot, so it’s fair to use a higher base
case gold price these days. By electing a reasonable C$1,900/oz (midpoint of previous
assumption and spot), this they now C$55 per gram ceteris paribus, which in turn
allows RPX to drop the cut-off to 2.27g/t Au and achieve the same financial margins.
We don’t have the line for 2.27 g/t or even 2.25 g/t on the above table, but a best
guess puts another 75,000 oz onto the existing resource simply due to the rise in the
price of gold.
Summing up Surluga, it’s small (so far) but it’s a decent grade, there’s a shaft already sunk
there, they know it mines profitably because profitable mining happened there before. To wrap
up on resource, below please find the minor 43-101 resource for the Minto Mine South Deposit,
the centre of the Minto at the South end of the Wawa property. It’s again indicated and
inferred, it’s small at 25k + 75k =100k oz of gold, it’s more a case of recognizing a working
mine was in this vicinity, its known mineralization was largely mined out and RPX expects to
find other areas of gold mineralization using 21st century geology, technology, brains trust etc.
6

This Minto deposit is a foot in the door or a marker card, what
matters is the brownfields exploration program that RPX is now
cleared and funded to run around the known workings.
That’s the snapshot as stands today, but the attraction of Wawa is
its exploration potential and resource upside, something that can
finally begin in earnest now property ownership is consolidated. To
consider this we start with photos, as your author visited the
Wawa Gold Project back in July 2018 and here are some shots.
We, we were really there, as seen by the entry board (right). Once
arrived and inside, the camp at Wawa Gold is basic but functions
well, a small exploreco’s use of modular tents is normal. However,
what stood out at camp was next to the tents, there was at the
time stacks of historic core that required re-logging and during my
visit, there was plenty of activity among the team of geols on-site.
As for samples, you want VG? Sure, we got VG:
There was plenty of visible gold available to photograph, the photo above one of many I took
and also typical of the mineralization; the gold is typically quartz hosted in veins and similar (to
the eye) to the mined material we saw at the Wesdome (WDO.to) Eagle River mine on the tour
the next day (65km away). It was a wet day at Wawa, but once we were out on the visit
(below) we stopped at most of the major targets along the approx 3km main length from
Surluga to Minto. There are at least four significant, drill ready targets including the ones that
7

RPX mentioned last week, Surluga (to the North of the property) and Minto (to the South), the
field maps being held by the RPX VP Exploration at make for a better visual than just another
copy/paste from the company website (and fwiw the centre is Mia Boiridy, the new President
and CEO of MacDonald Mines (BMK.v).
Below left is another map they showed us, highlighting their main area of focus in red. Those
are my notes in the corner, not theirs. We first stopped at Surluga and looked at a the head of
an old mine shaft as they told us what lay beneath our feet. Then we moved on to the next site
of interest, Jubilee.
Above right is a shot of the Jubilee target (with feet at the top for scale), a few hundred metres
to the South of Surluga where the main shaft sunk by previous operators. Jubilee sticks out a
8

mile due to its outcropping shear zone and over time saw some small historic workings, but
must have frustrated old timers because they didn’t find that much. It’s unusual in that it
outcrops, a real rarity among the Great Lakes precious metals targets. In fact, the extensive
outcropping in one zone of the property that also grades for gold is the likely reason the original
prospectors zeroed in on the locality, back in the day. It made for easier discovery than the
flatland zones all around them. The rest of the property is more classic in its aspect, it’s typical
Canadian scrub.
This photo shows a stop we made between Jubilee and Minto at another target on the
property, this one not a mine and with very little formal drilling or exploration done. Sitting on
the shear trend between Surluga and Minto on the banks of the local lake, it is one of many
sites aside from the current company focus toward the old workings.
Discussion and conclusion
The Flash update of last Tuesday lunchtime was well-timed, we’re not going to see 5c and 6c
prices in this stock again and the near-automatic re-rating on last week’s news is now done.
What remains is a company that is being pro-forma valued at around C$85m and for that
money, there’s competition for the investment community’s money. Take for example a
company well known to these pages, Cartier Resources (ECR.v): At ECR you have a For Sale
asset in Chimo that holds 1.7m oz gold (and the eventual operator will get more than 2moz out
of it, no doubts), has two other projects on the go, runs a tight financial ship, has strong
geological brains trust and is in (roughly) the same neck of the woods. You get all that, plus its
cash treasury, for C$67m market cap this weekend.
Therefore why pay pro-forma C$85m for RPX, with less than a million ounces under 43-101? A
good question, the answer is that RPX is now a new and interesting drill play. You have:
 A “new” gold target in a prime area of Canada, but with 43-101 resource published
 With Alamos as 19.9% strategic partner, funding is no longer an issue
 Multiple targets on a large property surrounded by old workings
 A CEO who has dropped all other jobs to concentrate on RPX and a new chairman
arriving from Detour Gold to bring industry heft.
RPX has been on the back-burner since its fusion with Augustine, it’s certainly not moved much
since my visit. I know that because I’ve followed the fate of this minnow closely since the visit,
my field notes at the time were on its expansion potential and need for a decent strategic
partner to fund a more widespread drill program. It has good grading material, old workings are
the right place to look for new mineral deposits in the 21st century, and now with Alamos Gold
(AGI) on board, it has the big sponsor. All last week was good news, but that won’t disguise the
fact that the buyer of RPX is buying into the high risk/reward of a drill play. ECR today is valued
9

at under C$70m because it’s an understood entity, whereas the market will be willing to pay up
for RPX for the future hope. However, that seems to have happened already with the sudden
near-doubling of the stock and this weekend, the 9c of RPX implies an exploreco that’s
reasonably valued compared. If you bought
some of these last week you’re on the right side
of the trade, but I can’t see it running much
higher without new news (i.e. great drill results)
so the good choices you get to make are either
hold at a great entry price, or sell and take a
quick profit. Meanwhile, management likes their
project and is keen to get going, but that’s hardly
unusual either and until something else happens,
such as a great drill assay, RPX isn’t going to
move up much further. As for my personal call, I
didn’t buy any last week and will wait on the
sidelines for a lower price.
Stocks to Follow
Compared to the 4.98% dump taken by GDX, or the 3.1% lost by gold on the week, the five
winners (RIO.v, CMMC.to, NGD, ORE.v, MENE.v), three unchanged (RYR.v, TORO.v, MIRL.cse)
and six losers (MAI.v, TMQ, SMD.v, MIN.to, GBR.v, AUL.v) from 14 open positions this week is
a least worst result in itself. It included a welcome 11.1% rally in Top Pick Rio2 Ltd (not Rio
Alto) under brisk trading and despite the new market darling metal, copper, being reeled in to
finish all-but UNCH, those base metals stocks also hung in there.
With the thinning out of companies last weekend and the sale of KUYA, NOM and ECU, we are
down to 14 open positions on the Stock to Follow list, one below our maximum. Six of our
stocks are in the green, eight are in the red, the trick is to keep the big losers confined to the
trades with small outlay.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.53 152.4% New $1.14 tgt Aug'20 #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.80 -3.6% $1.58 tgt, bot again Nov'20
Recommended stocks (In order of preference)
Copper Mountain CMMC.to STR BUY C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$3.15 125.0% Added Dec'20, trade for FY21
Trilogy Metals TMQ STR BUY U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$2.15 16.8% Added Dec'20, Cu for 2021
Strategic Metals SMD.v STR BUY C$0.40 31-Jan-21 C$0.38 -5.0% Asset $ trade, proj generator
New Gold NGD BUY U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$1.62 113.2% 3q20 tgt $2.80
Excelsior Mining MIN.to STR BUY C$0.98 10-Mar-19 C$0.94 -4.1% Added again Dec'20, Cu'21
Royal Road Min. RYR.v BUY C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.38 145.2% Model paying off in Nica
Great Bear Res GBR.v BUY C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$14.25 -10.0% M&A major tgt, added IKN590
Orezone ORE.v BUY C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.00 26.6% M&A window or re-rate later
Aurelius Res AUL.v spec buy C$0.075 28-Jun-20 C$0.045 -40.0% 1st assays promising, spec buy
Pucara Gold TORO.v hold C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.265 -59.2% Strike One
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.145 -25.6% hold until further news
Long-term non-mining hold
Mene Inc. MENE.v LT Hold C$0.65 6-Dec-20 C$0.64 -1.5% LT bet on jockey&horse,will add
10

Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Mining NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -50.3% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 16.3% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 41.0% Cut Peru exposure
2015 to 2020 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for some notes on covered stocks:
Norsemont Mining (NOM.cse): POSITION CLOSED. This is the screw-up trade, the one I
bet too heavily on and now take a
substantial realized loss. It’s also the
decision that brought more mailbox than
any other, I do get that, I also get that
NOM delivered on its appointment of a VP
Exploration last week (5), which saw the
stock rally on Wednesday. I sold into that
rally and later that evening, fielded another
mail on my decision to dump NOM (and the
other stocks by replying to reader “E” this
way:
NOM: I used the appointment of
the VPEx today to sell, take loss
and move on. I think there are
better places for my money in the industrial metals now, plus NOM just got
too expensive to hold and I no longer ignore portfolio discipline. I learned the
hard way that trying to appease the public for the sake of a trade call that
goes wrong is a serious mistake. We all lose, I happen to lose publicly, and
the only way to do that is to wear it. I ain't got nothing else for you on that.
Your author has never hidden the fact that the system used by The IKN Weekly, that of the
author running his own money and explaining his own trades, is the least worst, rather than the
best, for a newsletter format because it’s always going to have weak points such as this; for my
personal financial discipline, I drop coverage on a popular listing and people don’t like that. It’s
understandable, it causes unsubscriptions, however the “least worst” system must be respected
and that means it’s going to happen again, don’t know where or when but it will.
Kuya Silver (KUYA.cse): POSITION CLOSED. Selling shares of a silver company the day
before the price of silver dropped away from its unsustainable promo-pumped level was an
enjoyable experience. On the subject, please note that I really did sell all the stocks on the
table above at the average prices you see and feel a little sheepish about presenting what looks
like cherry-picked out prices at the top of each company’s trading range last week. For once I
got lucky with the micro-timing on all sales and the portfolio benefited as a result.
In the case of KUYA, the stock managed to rally again on Friday as CEO David Stein ran one of
those “Ask Me Anything” presentations for the Wall Street Bets people on Reddit and, according
to one source who watched, did an impressive job. However, we also know the company needs
to run a financing at any given moment and unless silver proves me wrong in the meantime,
that is enough to keep a lid on big upmoves.
Element 29 Resources (ECU.v): POSITION CLOSED: Third and final sale (fourth in fact,
see below), ECU is the one I’m most likely to regret selling, but the political risk in Peru
demands less exposure and my choices aside this one are limited.
Fiore Gold (F.v) update. To confirm, this position is now fully closed and I even managed to
sell well here, too. I have no shame.
11

Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): A good week for the stock, apparently powered by the underlying warrants
expiry of around 10.8m warrants dated February 28th 2021 (last Friday) and March 13th 2021
(two weeks to go), the strike price 65c. We understand that all but a very few of the Feb 28th
tranche have been exercised, of the 10.8m have been exercised and there’s every reason to
expect the 2.5m or so March papers to become whole, too. If so, that adds the 10.8m shares
to the count and implies the RIO.v share count at just over 200m, give or take.
RIO.v: Shares out
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
12
71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 tse02q4 tse12q1
M s/o
source: company filings
Trading last week in RIO.v was choppy, Thursday and Friday seeing the stock trade in a wide
range on lumpy volume (the warrants), but it
was also positive and against the grain of the
gold sector. This is good and bodes well for
the state of the construction financing.
On that score, I contacted CEO Alex Black
last week to check in on progress and to
quote the man everything is “on track” and
they have been receiving plenty of strong
interest in potential alternative financing
products, too. Those of you who know Black
understand he’s normally an unflappable
person, but the calm confidence about the
financing coming in as planned was palpable
and noteworthy, too. In the meantime while the construction financing closes the company has
plenty of new treasury to move forward on all plans, thanks to those warrants becoming whole.
The EIA application in Chile is moving forward and I was happy to hear this weekend that the
company is at the “answering observations” stage, when the government comes back with its
queries after considering its initial application and the company answers them to their
satisfaction. We should also get news of the current small scale trial heap leach they have put
together at Fenix using Run of Mine (ROM) material.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): When MAI dropped briefly under 50c last week, the obvious
question sprang to mind; at what price does the temptation to add become too great? One of
those moments when you have to concentrate hard on personal portfolio discipline, rather than
chase the emotion because at 50c, this stock is now at a deep discount to its present-day value,
forget the re-rate that happens when the gold starts to flow.
I received a small flurry of mails on MAI around the same time, so 50c was some sort of
psychological squeeze moment for more than this desk. So to attempt to put a couple of minds
at ease, the Santana construction is moving forward as planned and gold pours end Q2. The
other matter raised more than once was about regional security. For geographical and size
reasons, as well as its planned production schedule (no doré on site) Santana isn’t a prime
target for narco gangs. There’s no way we can say “never”, but I’ve been round this angle
seven ways with the team (including on the site visit, when I bored CEO Koningen to death
because I refused to talk geology or engineering) and they understand how and also where to

work in North Mexico (e.g. security was one of the factors they considered when selling its
asset to Prime Mining). This is an issue that will never totally go away and every so often, it will
come up as a talking point (maybe after an incident at another mine, or the talk of Mexico’s
expensive “Mining Police” last week on the blog.
Great Bear Resources (GBR.v): The news was good from GBR last week, its bought deal
closed (6). Originally set at C$37m, the financing was upsized that same day to C$70m and was
fully taken. However, it took a few days longer than the original expected Feb 18th closing
date, which may have been a(nother) reason for GBR share underperformance.
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): Updating the list of last week, we can now confirm zero news
releases from Minera IRL during February. Eyes down for March.
New Gold (NGD): After the house argument last week that NGD had been oversold and
unjustly whacked through its earnings
week, it was pleasant to see the stock
rally and gain over 7% against strong
sector headwinds. This chart comparing
our stock (black line) to GDX and also the
one that might be the swap-in at some
point, Wesdome (WDO.to), shows how
NGD rallied almost immediately into the
week. Also, we note that while Thursday’s
selling was painful to one and all, Friday’s
continued sell-off was enough to bring the
bargain hunters out. While GDX flatlined
the rest of the day, that chart tells me
money was happy to buy quality M stocks
with strong financials and obvious growth
baked in. For example, WDO and NGD,
The Copper Basket
After eight weeks of 2021, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 29.84% to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.08 104.67 750.48 7.17 17.9%
2 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 1.81 207.5 653.63 3.15 74.0%
3 Oroco Res OCO.v 1.85 185.11 375.77 2.03 9.7%
4 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.25 64.358 305.70 4.75 46.2%
5 Western Copper WRN.to 1.57 135.6 275.27 2.03 29.3%
6 Excelsior Min. MIN.to 1.12 239.063 224.72 0.94 -16.1%
7 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.80 180.77 160.89 0.89 11.3%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.07 101.85 130.37 1.28 19.6%
9 Chakana Cop PERU.v 0.60 117.2 66.80 0.57 -5.0%
10 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.115 375.17 63.78 0.17 47.8%
11 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.455 93.64 52.44 0.56 23.1%
12 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.45 66.7 36.02 0.54 20.0%
13 Doré Copper DCMC.v 1.00 40.938 37.25 0.91 -9.0%
14 Crown Mining CWM.v 0.105 87.53 24.51 0.28 166.7%
15 Chibougamau CBG.v 0.165 46.695 8.64 0.185 12.1%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 29.84%
13

This week is filed under V of Volatile.
Once the dust had settled, our Copper
The Copper Basket 2021, weekly evolution
Basket average managed to return a 35%
slight gain overall, thanks to the positive
30%
effects of eight week-over-week winners
25%
(SLS.v, CMMC.to, OCO.v, MARI.to,
20%
REG.v, CCCM.v, DCMC.v, CBG.v)
15%
overcoming the negatives of six losers
10%
(MIN.to, WRN.to, ARG.to, ALDE.v,
5%
ECU.v, CWM.v), with just one unchanged
0%
on the week (PERU.v). Biggest winner
was Marimaca (MARI.to up 22.1%),
biggest loser was Aldebaran (ALDE.v
down 13.9%), there were no other
double figure losers despite the choppy seas for all. On an in-house note, it was pleasant to see
the performance of this basket closely to that of copper last week, with a real mixed bag of
stocks on a wild ride all week that finishes slightly up. The same as copper the metal, as seen
here:
At some point we were going to get a top in copper, it came with the bonds rally, but the
overbought spike happened at a higher price than this desk anticipated and this weekend is still
cosily above the U$4.00/lb line and perhaps more importantly, above the U$9,000/tonne line,
around the U$4.08/lb level [EDIT Sunday evening; Copper futures quickly added 5c/lb at the
Asia open]. There’s also new talk of “Asian Whales” in the copper space, with a widely reported
rumour that metal commodities desk Shanghai Dalu Futures had taken a U$1Bn long position in
SHFE contracts.
The bottom line: This copper bull run remains fully intact. Copper got caught up in the
deflationary pulse the same as just about anything else priced in dollars. So be it, but the
playbook for the inflation trade isn’t difficult and copper is a medium to long-term winner, if
what the bonds were telling us last week is true. More than precious metals, base and
industrials are the place to be in the first stages of an inflationary environment and copper
leads their charge, the time to own PMs is once the headwinds start showing. The drop in
copper was somewhat overdue anyway and as it came from such a high point, there won’t be
many copper producing companies complaining about the price offered to them this week. As
for the week ahead, I’ll take a flat U$4.10/lb happily (and all through March, for that matter),
but more upside is likely and in this frothy scenario for copper, a revisit to the U$4.30/lb line is
likely. What happens then is for another day (probably).
We move to the regular weekly world copper inventories section:
 World aggregate inventories rose sharply last week, up 38,540 metric tonnes (mt) as
the post-New Year copper stock arrives at SHFE. The total of the three systems comes
to 286,422mt this weekend.
14
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source: IKN calcs

 The action was again at the SHFE, the big and expected influx of stock arriving with the
Chinese Ne Year. A cool 35,170mt of copper hit the warehouses, bringing the total up
to 147,958mt and putting stocks back at the benchmark 150k line again. Supply
remains very tight, but last week brought some relief to worried end users and helped
tip copper from its overbought high.
 The LME added a small 525mt while the SHFE fun was going on, this weekend’s total
76,225mt and still at near-historic lows. Extremely tight though cancelled warrant
percentages dropped a little on the week, there’s less build up of copper leaving the
warehouses.
 At the Comex, stocks rose for the first time in a while, adding 2,845mt to get to
62,239mt this weekend.
Here is the Shanghai-only inventories chart, visualizing the welcome return to the 150k line
after its deep dive.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
15
31'13ceD ht9 ht81 ht72 ht5tco ht41 dn22 5102
dr3yam
ht21 ht02 ht92 ht7bef ht71 ht62 ht4peS ht31 ht92 ht9 ht81 ht72 7102
ht5von
ht41 ht52 ht01 ht91 ht82 9102
ht6naJ
ht71 ht62 ht4gua ht31 dn22 0202ts1ram ht01 ht91 ht72 0202ht6ced ht41
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
Now for notes on some of our basket companies:
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): Unlike many other copper developers, MARI was the gift that
kept on giving last week. Set alight by the move
two Thursdays ago, MARI maintained
momentum and volume last week while the
sector (COPX) proxy faded back.
This on the back of a $30.9m bought deal that
was closed before it opened (7), MARI getting a
valued strategic investor on board. Use of
proceeds is vague, but the stock likely jumped
and kept jumping on the talk of being close to
production (this company has been a very long
story, a timeline to real production is a major
milestone). It is high time I revisited my MARI
model and considered its updated mine plan
against price. This weekend, I feel unequipped to comment on whether $4.75 is justifiable or
not, that isn’t a good for a pseudo anal yst.
Regulus Resources (REG.v): The Buenaventura (BVN) 4q20 financials and conference call
were significant to REG, as its larger partner at AntaKori announced it had commissioned M3 to
run a scoping study on the 60ktpd throughput option for its Tantahuatay/Coimolache Sulfides
project. The viability process is set to last for five years (according to the company), the
ostensible trade-off between the 60ktpd plan which would mean involving REG and its land, or
sticking with the 20ktpd project sat on its own land. Here’s the slide from the 4q20 ConfCall

presentation (8):
, the comments on the conference call added nothing. Coimolache Sulfides is at the back of
BVN’s development pipeline and they have put a five year label on it, more than enough time to
decide what they want to do about their neighbours (9).
Oroco Resources (OCO.v): After my failure to grab hold of the OCO bullet last year, I finally
managed to make a reasonable call on the stock once it had got up around $1.80, the point
where NRs that were just as positive and promo
as the ones which had combined with its social
media campaign to send the stock higher, but
weren’t making any difference. At that point, the
price had finally got too far ahead of itself and
the house call was either to see it drop, or
consolidate until the market caught up.
It would appear the latter is true, last week’s
move in OCO the first sign that the slack has
been fully taken up and the company isn’t as
highly valued to peers as it was a quarter or so
ago. The chart shows 2021 YTD and how spot
copper (HG00) climbed all February, but it took
until the final week to get a reaction out of this company’s stock price.
The Producer Basket
After eight weeks of 2021, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 16.09% to level stakes.
16

company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out Mkt Cap (U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 59.89 803.36 43.69 54.38 -9.2%
2 Barrick GOLD 22.78 1779.04 33.18 18.65 -18.1%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 70.51 242.99 13.82 56.87 -19.3%
4 Kirkland Lake KL 41.27 272.984 8.93 32.73 -20.7%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 7.34 1260 7.85 6.23 -15.1%
6 Pan American PAAS 34.71 210.17 6.94 33.02 -4.9%
7 Endeavour Min EDV.to 29.62 246.2 5.03 24.51 -17.3%
8 B2Gold BTG 5.60 1064 4.65 4.37 -22.0%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 8.75 392.73 2.79 7.10 -18.9%
10 Pretium Res PVG 11.48 187.254 1.82 9.71 -15.4%
Prices in U$ except EDV.to (share price in CAD$ and mkt cap in approx USD) Port. avg -16.09%
We offer the silver linings first. For one, it wasn’t as bad as last week and for another, we had a
week-over-week winner in the shape of Pan American Silver (PAAS), which eked out a 1.6%
gain and is a true silver lining. The others dropped, with the worst shows from Kirkland Lake
(KL down 8.4%) and B2Gold (BTG down 8.2%), the others grouped around the 4% drop.
The tracking charts have little cheer about them, though the basket did manage to eat into the
GDX’s lead a little.
The 2021 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and 4%
comparative to GDX control
0%
-4%
-8%
-12%
-16%
-20%
Kirkland Lake (KL): We all remember the outstanding price journey KL took on the back of
Fosterville and what they found deep there, but KL is now relying on memory for good graces
with its shareholders:
The above chart also takes in the drop of late November 2019, when KL paid U$3.7Bn in paper
for Detour Gold. At U$48 stock before the deal, we can put to bed any doubts on whether KL
was railroaded into a liquidity event for Paulson.
StreamerWatch: Our ongoing eye on the royalty/streamer plays in 2021, as this desk believes
17
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The 2021 Producer Basket: Percentage difference between
GDX benchmark and basket (negative = IKN basket ahead)
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
basket 1.5%
gdx control
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
source: Google, IKN Calcs
ts1
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source: IKN calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq/TSX data

the sub-sector will underperform:
The Tiny Dogs
After eight weeks of 2021, the Tiny Dogs show a gain of 13.57% to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Antler Gold ANTL.v 0.205 61.348 11.04 0.18 -12.2%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.045 163.975 9.02 0.055 22.2%
Constantine Met CEM.v 0.17 45.4 9.08 0.20 17.6%
Contact Gold C.v 0.115 240.757 26.48 0.11 -4.3%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.22 40 6.40 0.16 -27.3%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.045 230.79 17.31 0.075 66.7%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.240 106.241 19.12 0.18 -25.0%
QC Copper QCCU.v 0.315 105 24.15 0.23 -27.0%
Red Pine Expl RPX.v 0.040 477.22 42.95 0.09 125.0%
Warrior Gold WAR.v 0.090 91.818 8.26 0.09 0.0%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 13.57%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
From this place last week:
“When the Tier 1 and Tier 2 stocks drop while the sector dogs wag their tails, watch out.”
That turned out to be true. We saw two of our stocks make gains (BAY.v, RPX.v), including of
course Red Pine (RPX.v up 80.0%) and the company-changing news it had last week. We do
that in another place today, here we come back to look at the seven losers (ANTL.v, CEM.v,
GDP.v, MTU.v, PRG.v, QCCU.v, WAR.v) and one unchanged stock (C.v), with the biggest drops
18

felt by Manitou (MTU.v down 25.0%), Constantine (CEM.v down 16.7%) and Precipitate (PRG.v
down 16.3%). Plenty of big drops, but the
bolster from RPX means the basket average Tiny Dogs, 2021 weekly tracker
20%
doesn’t drop by that much (it would be +3.5% 18%
without it). 16%
14%
12%
Contact Gold (C.v): Another week of treading 10%
8%
water on the back of a deent drill result from
6%
Green Springs, C.v is finding it hard to gather 4%
momentum. That’s Waterton and a large equity 2%
0%
position for you.
Manitou Gold (MTU.v): On Tuesday morning
MTU (10) found a roundabout way of telling
shareholders it had drilled dusters, but was confident the summer exploration program would
generate a whole new set of promising targets at Goudreau. The stock finally broke during the
late week sector drop and couldn’t hold its recent impressive gains.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It is possible that in the
future I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, but at the moment both my opinion and my wallet are strictly
neutral.
Regional politics
Peru Presidential election 2021: The madness begins
Peru is not the politically craziest nation in South America, in fact it comes down the list headed
by Venezuela (another league entirely), Argentina (into its 8th decade of madness) and Ecuador
(the Mini Basket Case). However, there’s no beating Peru at election time because the madness
starts early and keeps coming in waves.
Top crazy this week is Peru’s electoral body throwing out the Presidential election candidates
George Forsyth (the frontrunner) and Rafael Lopez Aliaga (the recent springer in the polls),
both for what are regarded as minor infractions in any manner. Forsyth screwed up on his 2019
income declaration, omitting third party revenues and incorrectly filling out a form on income
that “induces you to error” (in his words). Meanwhile, when López Aliaga told the world that if
he became President he’d donate half the Presidential salary to charity; that was interpreted as
inducement to bribery, believe it or not. Forsyth is appealing this second ruling against him, but
his chances of making the ballot are now fading fast and with Aliaga also out, the field is now
shaping ominously.
The frontrunner, if you want to call somebody with less than 12% of voter intention in a field of
19
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source: IKN calcs, TSX data

eight possible candidates and half the electorate still undecided for whom to vote a
“frontrunner”, is Yohny Lescano (Say Johnny, then the last name rhymes with Meccano). He
has been picking up votes mainly in the South of the country, (he’s from the South, from the
Puno region) but the improvement is on a policy platform that’s prima facie left wing. For
example in the last week he talked of his government plans for the mining industry, which
include changing the law and the Constitution to make the State the sole owner of all metals,
which would mean the government pay the mining companies to mine the metals (at the price
Peru wants to pay) and Peru then gets to export it to the world and aggregate value for the
country. In so many words, a mish-mash of crazy ideas that would sink the country’s economy
in six months (i.e. classic left wing economics), but Lescano is nobody’s progressive woke Lefty,
either. He wins votes from the socially conservative Peruvian society and for a non-mining
example, he beats the other clear Lefty candidate, Verónika Mendoza, for his anti-abortion and
pro-Church positions that go down better in provincial Peru. For another mining example, he
stated last week that both the Conga and Tia Maria projects should be annulled and no more
time wasted on them (that wins votes in Cajamarca and Arequipa, two of the most populous of
Peru’s provinces) (11). Here’s a translation of his words:
“I don’t want to make any more problems or loss of life in Cajamarca. We have to
move forward with different activities in this zone or in others, but continue and insist
that Conga be built seems to me dangerous. Let them go do mining in another place,
where’s there’s no conflict. I prefer to maintain the peace, the agriculture and the
healthy water, because we can have “bread today and hunger tomorrow” (a Spanish
saying). Go to Cerro de Pasco or to other places where people are dying of pollution,
mining isn’t leaving the profits that it should leave. In these conditions, it’s best not to
generate any more problems.”
Certainly populist, but it has bought him some traction and those expecting a smooth transition
from one pro-mining government in Peru to another in 2021 may need to think again, we now
have two left wing candidates who are using the mining sector as a political weapon in the top
two places in the intention polls. With the near-confirmed ouster of George Forsyth and López
Aliaga the field is already down to “Which Least Worst Do They Vote for?” and the streets of
Peru already know this, the line-up is mediocrity writ large and a new voter intention survey,
run by IEP for the centrist/centre-left news paper La Republica this weekend (12), has the race
this way:
 Yohny Lescano: 11.3%
 Verónika Mendoza: 8.9%
 George Forsyth: 8.1% (and now excluded)
 Keiko Fujimori: 8.1% (and with hard vote ceiling)
 Rafael López Aliaga: 7.6% (and now excluded)
 Daniel Urrestí: 4.8%
 Hernando de Soto: 4.2%
 César Acuña: 3.8%
20

 Julio Guzmán: 3.1%
The poll this weekend also has 20% of Peruvians saying they will not vote or spoil their ballot
(voting is obligatory, if you don’t vote you are fined in cash) and another 10% undecided. As I
look down the list to find the counterweight to the “conservative left” of Lescano and the
straight shot left wing Mendoza, there’s very little to get enthusiastic about. What’s more, the
details of today’s survey point to the next Congress as being as fractured as the current one, as
62% of Peruvians expect to vote for one party’s candidate for President, but a completely
different one for its member of Congress. For what that implies, Verónika Mendoza currently
had 8.9% of voter support but her party only gathers 4.0% voter intention. If those figures
become reality, her party doesn’t manage to get over the 5% minimum of votes needed to
have Congressional representation and she gets zero members of Congress, if whe were to
progress to become President. For another example, the highly conservative and religious
hardline FREPAP party has no Presidential candidate, but has 8.5% of voter intention for its
Congress candidates. This is the same voting bloc behind much of the current Congress’s
instability.
The bottom line to today’s update: Peru’s political mess is getting worse and it’s only a matter
of time before the rest of the world notices that the two frontrunners for the election are
pushing policies that are either unfriendly toward mining companies (Lescano) or extremely
unfriendly toward mining companies (Mendoza). Neither of the frontrunners are welcome
among Peru’s ruling classes, but at least Lescano is politically house trained (a member of
Congress of 19 years straight) and has many personal skeletons in his closet (including several
for sexual harassment in the workplace). Those that would control their President can live with
that, what they cannot live with is the classic left wing proposed by Verónika Mendoza. The
right wing will at some point decide on their champion to fight the rabid left, but with Forsyth
and López Aliaga now both excluded (though both are appealing the sentence) the options are
limited and thin gruel indeed.
As for the implications to the mining industry of Peru, everything that happened over the last
seven days only went to underscore and reinforce my decision to lighten exposure to the
country, as per IKN613 last weekend. It’s going to get worse before it gets better, we may even
be headed for a second round where two left wing candidates face off against each other, but
however the next six weeks fall we already know that the Left Shift experienced allover the
continent over the last 18 months has arrived in Peru, all the evidence you need is found in the
top two candidates for next President with just six weeks left before the vote.
Updating the Ecuador presidential election
The week of politics in Ecuador has brought the expected result; fairly or otherwise Yaku Pérez
has been railroaded out of the second round by Ecuador’s institutions and the ballotage will be
contested between Andrés Arauz and Guillermo Lasso. There’s enough evidence to suggest the
election result was steered away from Yaku Pérez*, there’s also plenty of evidence of Official
Blind Eye ever since the preliminary result that squeaked Lasso into the second round was
known, but life just aint fair sometimes and round two will happen without him.
However, things are far from becoming easier in Ecuador. The outcome of the second round is
still important of course, but the fractured vote and fraud allegations have stoked the national
atmosphere and now the indigenous groups loyal to the Pachkutik party have begun protests
and road blocks. Added to this, there is something of a civil war brewing in the
CONAIE/Pachakutik ranks, as the outstanding result garnered by Yaku Pérez has annoyed the
two traditional leaders of the underlying CONAIE indigenous group, Jaime Vargas and Leonidas
Iza. Fearing a loss of power to the fast ascension of Pérez, they have accused him of not
running a smart campaign and did not accompany him on his protest march into Quito on
Monday. There’s no love lost between the sides and Pérez replied (13) that they were working
for Arauz, not the indigenous.
From this point, two narratives begin to appear. The first is on the second round election and, if
21

Lasso cannot reach an alliance with Yake Pérez and Pachakutik his chances of beating Arauz are
small indeed. That still makes Yaku Pérez a kingmaker, but the start of roadblocks in the jungle
zones also marks the start of a civil disobedience campaign that will go on for a lot longer.
Ecuador is en route to becoming ungovernable under either Lasso or Arauz if they cannot reach
some sort of agreement with the indigenous and their newly found political power. Yaku Pérez
may not have got to the run-off, but he has changed the balance of power permanently in
Ecuador and you can be sure he will use his new celebrity to push the ant-mining cause.
* The narrative would drone on otherwise, here we note Ecuador’s election rules state that an official results sheet isn’t
“wrong” unless the count and the result given to the CNE are more than 1% apart. Pachakutik’s argument, and the
reason they handed in over 27,000 different “actas” (results sheets) to the CNE for verification, is they have noticed a
widespread tendency to undercount the Pachakutik party results by a few votes on acts around the country. Nearly all
stay under the 1% lines and are not considered irregular, and in fact, of the 27,000 actas submitted by Pachakutik last
week, only 5,000 or so were allowed for initial review and of those, only 31 found to have contained errors.
Pachakutik/Yaku Pérez claim they have shaved over 200,000 votes from the national total this way, more than enough
to put him in the second round. However, as nearly all the small discrepancies are inside the allowed margin of error all
the CNE need do is follow the rules.
Tracking Chile and Peru Covid-19 cases (seventh and final week)
Week seven and, unless things change dramatically in the next seven days, it will be the last
instalment in what was always planned to be a temporary series, with Covid-19 in Chile and
Peru as its agenda and any affect the virus in those countries might have on the price of copper
as its focus. Via four charts we keep a close eye on potential supply disruption of copper in the
world’s two biggest copper producer countries into an already tight world market. To keep it
standard, we’ll use the charts at the well-regarded Worldometers site for the ongoing track (14)
and each chart also comes with its seven day moving average. Commentary below:
Chile: The chart for new daily infections:
Chile: The chart for daily fatalities:
Peru: The chart for new daily infections:
22

Peru: The chart for daily fatalities:
Chile is the reason to stop this survey, its mining industry is in good shape and will almost
certainly remain that way as its region-leading vaccination program rolls out and Covid-19 cases
start to drop in the country. It’s the biggest copper producer in the world and it will continue to
do what it is good at doing in 2021. I don’t want to sound as though I’m underplaying what is
still a serious social and public health situation, here our focus is specifically copper and we can
expect 2021 supply from Chile as per best case forecasts.
In Peru, despite cases only dropping slightly, and despite there only being less than 300,000
people vaccinated to date, the month-long hard lockdown in its most populated and worst
affected regions stops at midnight tonight. We have already learned that wealthy countries
have far more options than developing nations when facing Covid-19, Peru would lapse back
into serious social problems akin to the periods of hunger felt across the country last year. With
a calendar that does not make for much social distancing coming up (March back to school
period involves a lot of buying in popular markets), then Easter Week, then the April 11th
election, plus the descent in temperatures as from March, plus a vaccination program that
started late and without the basic infrastructure to expand rapidly, the recipe for the third wave
of infections is set fair.
However, Covid-19 cases now centre on poor areas of the cities or the wider country, anywhere
that enjoys extra income can and does keep its cases under control. We see this in the better
hoods of Lima (I’m a lucky boy and live in a nice zone, very few cases of Covid-19 here this
month) and we also see this in larger companies and better run organizations (i.e. not the
government). The smarter mining companies were invested months ago in the things they need
to keep operating (deal with hotels in Lima for periods of quarantine for shift workers, plenty of
PPE, testing, oxygen and on-site dedicated clinic etc) and have taken the second wave largely
in their stride. The other potential weak link, transport and logistics infrastructure, hasn’t
suffered much either this time around and on the whole, Peru’s mining world has managed to
separate itself from the wider health mess in the country.
Therefore, as from next week we’ll revert to any general pan-LatAm comments on Covid-19 and
anything new from Chile or Peru is covered as per any other regional country. For example,
Mexico today with some reasonable good news:
23

Mexico: No red lights for Covid-19
As from this weekend and for the first time since the system was introduced, no region of
Mexico is under the highest “Red Alert” warning on its government’s scale. On Friday evening
its Health Ministry reported 10 regions under Orange Alert, 20 under Yellow Alert and two
under Green. This is a sharp improvement and once again, helps lift the threat to industrial
output (15).
The “VIP Vaccines” scandals spread across the continent
Add Ecuador to the list of countries whose top executives helped themselves to secret
vaccinations while the rest of the world waited. After Peru and Argentina, Ecuador’s Health
Minister Juan Carlos Zevallos resigned for getting himself and his entire family vaccinated, then
offering vaccinations to friends, party colleagues, prominent businesspeople etc.
Also this weekend, we are now getting reports from the first “VIP Vaccine” country about how
China deliberately offered extra doses of its Sinopharm vaccines to Peru’s government executive
and vaccine negotiation teams. Expect that to replicate in other countries as the world begins to
work out how China plans to promote itself to South America and other developing nation
continents in the years to come.
Market Watching
Fiore Gold (F.v) 1q21 financials (in US Dollars unless stated)
Though the personal shares are now sold, there’s every reason to check in on the 1q21
financial results (i.e. their quarter to December 31st 2020, as the F.v financial year runs to
September 30th) as filed by the company last Tuesday, February 23rd (16).
The top reason to look is that the quarter’s mediocre production numbers, as reported January
12th, were the central reason why I decided (after humming and hahing that cost me money) to
sell the position and move on.
We begin with a brief reminder of the production numbers, this chart from IKN608 dated
January 17th should be enough:
F.v: Gold production and sales, per quarter
24
0593 8383
4466 7646
5968 3768 4699 48501 3998 4698 5679 4479 95701 73701 58611 40511 2829 9009 0578 3909 58021 62021 29721 16721 23421 55421 4029 0129 00011 00011 00511 00511 00021 00021 00521 00521
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
71_pes 71_ced 81_ram 81_nuj 81_pes 81_ced 91_ram 91_nuj 91_pes 91_ced 02_ram 02_nuj 02_pes tse02_ced tse12_ram tse12_nuj tse12_pes tse12_ced
Oz Au
source: company filings
As the forecast bars indicate to the right, we’re expecting F.v to bounce back from this
mediocre quarter and the current fiscal quarter should see them back at an 11k oz rhythm (the
company blamed the production miss this quarter on an experiment to leach using only cement,
but found recoveries dropped sharply and soon returned to the previous method of
lime+cement).

F.v: Operations overview
25
0.41
3.01
7.3
2.51
1.21
1.3
6.21
4.01
2.2
1.31
7.01
4.2
0.91
7.31
3.5
0.22
7.31
3.8
9.32
0.31
9.01
2.71
9.9
3.7
4.02
8.31
6.6
9.12
9.41
0.7
0.42
0.51
0.9
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
91_ram 91_nuj 91-pes 91-ced 02_ram 02_nuj 02_pes 02_ced tse12_ram tse12_nuj tse12_pes
$m
revenues
total cost of sales
Income from mine ops
source: F filings, IKN ests
Revenues of $17.209m came in as expected, but total COGS of $9.946m was a big saving
compared to the previous quarters and Yoy, despite cost creep having affected the Nevada
mining scene. The main change is a $1.8m YoY drop in mining costs, which suggests F.v cut
expenses to the bone once they worked out production would be light. The missed production
due to the cement issue made its way onto the inventories ledger too, as the company clearly
believes those ounces are not lost and will come off the pad now that they have reverted to
using lime. But whatever it was, F.v is unlikely to be able to emulate that outlier cost number
through future quarters, cost creep was already noticeable when at full production.
F.v: Inventories
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
81_pes 81_ced 91_ram 91_nuj 91_pes 91_ced 02_ram 02_nuj 02_pes 02_ced
$m
materials/supplies stockpiles
heap leach in circuit finished goods
source: company filings
That addition to inventory comes off its mining costs number, as true cash required to run the
mine last quarter was over $10m and the inventory credits against that. Here’s how the
revenues flowed through the books once mining costs were accounted for:
F.v: Earnings
880.0
467.0
599.1
364.0
8.0-
985.0
988.2
631.5
343.9
694.4
$m
14
Income from mine ops
12
pre-tax earnings
10 net earnings
8
6
4
2
0
-2 source: F filings
sep_18dec_18mar_19jun_19 sep-19 dec-19mar_20jun_20sep_20dec_20
The Mine operating earnings number of $7.263m was $3m better than the house estimate, that
all due to the drop in costs. Net earnings of U$4.496m were $1.5m better than our model, for
the same reasons.

F.v: Assets Breakdown per qtr
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
26
71_pes 71_ced 81_ram 81_nuj 81_pes 81_ced 91_ram 91_nuj 91-pes 91-ced 02_ram 02_nuj 02_pes 02_ced
$m
cash inventories
other current fixed
source: company filings, IKN ests
F.v: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
71_pes 71_ced 81_ram 81_nuj 81_pes 81_ced 91_ram 91_nuj 91-pes 91-ced 02_ram 02_nuj 02_pes 02_ced
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabilities
current liabilities
Working capital dropped slightly to $39.5m, but no worries here and the company is in good
financial shape.
50 F.v: Working Capital per qtr
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
71_pes 71_ced 81_ram 81_nuj 81_pes 81_ced 91_ram 91_nuj 91-pes 91-ced 02_ram 02_nuj 02_pes 02_ced
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
The bottom line to the F.v quarter is that the company beat my expectations thanks to costs
and the company did well to find one-off cost savings, but they won’t be able to maintain the
for more than a quarter. Fiore expects production in 2021 to be back end loaded and reach 44k
to 47k oz for the calendar year, which also implies the next quarter is likely to be lower. With
gold trading lower, it’s not difficult to remain on the outside of F.v for the time being.
The price of silver and futures trading
Are you sure
That we are awake? It seems to me
That yet we sleep, we dream.
A Midsummer Night's Dream Act 4, Sc1
Some thoughts on the way in which silver is being used by market pros to separate you from
your money. Last week’s silver futures expiry got a lot more attention than its usually gets,

mainly due to the continued efforts from the hardcore silver world insisting there is a silver
squeeze to be done and a new and far higher price to set. A continuation from the fleeting time
during which the new WallStreetBets people, fresh from what looked like a resounding victory
against a large legacy short position in GameStop (GME), turned its attention to the big short
held by JP Morgan over the silver market. I’m going to try to be brief, so:
Last week was options expiry week, in which the Silver Squeeze Group (for want of a better
title) promoted the idea of taking delivery of your silver contract (rather than roll it over or
merely close it out). This was also a popular line to among silver traders back in 2010 and
2011, by the way. The idea is straightforward, the theory states that as the JP Morgan (and
other financial entities, but JPM is at the centre) silver short position is much larger than its
metal inventory, all one has to do to get silver to rocket higher is to force the counterparty to
obey the rules and be obliged to deliver so muchphysical silver so that it can’t cover its
obligations from stock. At that point, it will be forced to buy more silver to cover the position,
and the short squeeze begins.
That was the theory, in practice it was like taking a knife to a gunfight.
Back at the start of February and for a couple of days, the open market rattled the control of
silver (the gap up marks the spot). From that point until today, nothing in that charts speaks of
a second loss of control and you will have to excuse the unsavoury expression, but what we
saw last week is an example of what the LME traders colloquially call “Date Rape” (apologies,
but it is what it is, I merely report). Straightforward to understand, in this case the people
wanting to force the dominant silver position into doing something it doesn’t want to do, the
Silver Squeeze Group, announce to colleagues in arms they are going to 1) buy silver through
the futures market by 2) demanding delivery on their futures position at expiry and therefore 3)
making the shorts pay more to cover their position. Supposedly, this pushes the price of silver
ever higher until a technical boundary is broken, at which point the shorts have to scramble for
cover and the price shoots to whatever impressive target has been posited by the silver
proponent.
However, as they say in Spanish “the reality is other” and as you may have witnessed last
week, it doesn’t always work. For one, it may have escaped the attention of the Silver Squeeze
Group, but the instos and dominant players in the silver market can also read English and often
spend time online. They will know the trade set-up being promoted by the Silver Squeeze
Group revolves around the “technically critical” U$28/oz line, so what did they do? Why, they
ran the price to U$28/oz! Once they have as many in as possible, down we go and instead of
the large short having to scramble to cover, it’s now the smaller longs who have to decide
whether they really, REALLY want to pay U$28/oz for the silver they bought or whether they
should pay plenty under U$27/oz for a similar ounce of silver (simply from a different
counterparty). This also puts paid to the longer-term theory that the big naughty short won’t
27

like having to pay continually to keep the short in position at every rollover. Instead, the legacy
short has just creamed a dollar per ounce off all those who were daft enough to oppose it.
Please don’t misunderstand I’m not saying the potential to squeeze out the silver short exists; it
does, which is why the concept at least had my attention for a couple of days at the very start
when WallStreetBets turned its attention and newly gained firepower on the silver space.
However it takes real financial firepower on a par with the dominant position and what we saw
last week wasn’t that. Last week was silverbugs flapping their lips and trying to get OPM to do
th dirty work for them. Last week was the knife to the gunfight or perhaps more accurately, it
was a futile attempt to disrupt the major trade positions by concentrating efforts on a second-
level listing, PSLV, which Van Eck, Comex and JP Morgan could ignore easily while they
bounced SLV and spot silver around so yes, ladies and gentlemen, the silver market is
manipulated. Of course it is, but the manipulation isn’t on some grand, Bildeberg scale or part
of The Great World Plan. Their manipulation scalps trading wins form other traders, the abstract
financial games that are played away from the real market for the metal. And for sure, JP
Morgan et al move the price of silver around at certain moments, but only when it suits them
and at fulcrum points in the market, e.g. options expiry. However, those insistent that silver
should be trading at a higher (or even much higher) price deck would do well also to step away
from the abstract of the futures market and consider the real price driver for the metal. Like
anything else, the long-term price of silver is set by the supply from mines/other against the
demand from clients and, as over half of the ounces supplied to the market are taken by
industry and consumed, maybe we should look there.
Pertaining to this, a personal limit was passed this week when Sprott USA ran a webcast
entitled “Silver Fundamentals Shine Bright”. A nice snappy title, plus they brought in three of
their crack team to present the webcast and its 31 page slideshow (download PDF here (17)),
but the content was about either a small amount on TA and the chart pricing of silver (hardly
fundies), then the larger part on current and expected silver demand. In other words, a
supposedly reputable brokerage managed to spend 31 slides on their best takes for demand,
but not a single moment on silver supply! Not only is that lapse of them, but it’s self-defeating
as there’s no way you can make a reasonable forecast on the third of three variables if you
have only studied one of the others. Therefore, and in the spirit of starting the ball rolling on a
more complete conversation on silver that better explains its price movements, we offer a few
talking points on silver supply:
 As two thirds of the world’s mine supply of silver comes as a by-product of other metal
mining (and very typically these days from the large porphyry and/or skarn copper
mines dotted around the world), supply is going to happen whatever the ticket price of
silver might be. No matter whether the silver is sold by the company on mining or is
already under a stream, the cost of production of most of the ounces produced in the
world is basically zero and the ounces will get sold no matter what the spot price.
 The main customer for silver is industry. Industry wants lower input prices, always.
Therefore, industry knows that there’s no point in paying up when silver starts running
hard. Why pay an exorbitant margin to a producer for something that cost most of
silver’s producers next to nothing?
 Industry also understands that as supply is constant and regular (they will sell those
very cheaply produced ounces at $10, $15 or $20), the only times prices rise sharply is
when there is investment/speculative interest in the metal. At those times supply is
taken away by people buying coins, bars and so forth, the result would please Adam
Smith and his theories (the price goes up).
 The problem is that as soon as the price stops going up (because industry backs off),
there’s no other customer for silver other than retail. Le banque central, c’est vous. This
is a fundamental difference between gold and silver, the amount of gold taken away
from the market every year is higher than that of silver. Once industry and jewelry are
28

satisfied, gold has two other clients; the investor and the Central Bank, and only the
investor is likely to return his gold to market and they make up a small percentage of
gold owners (a generally estimated 10%). The others, the CBers, are the greatest
stackers of them all who will buy large amounts of gold and then hold it indefinitely.
That is not the case with silver, as the only reason a price bubble forms in the metal
(excess speculative demand disrupting an otherwise regular supply and demand) is
when speculators start stacking. Central Banks are not going to retire a large
percentage of physical silver from the market every year In effect silver speculators are
silver’s Central Bank (Le banque central, c’est vous), they are 30% instead of gold’s
10% and only other place silver has to be stacked and get off-market but, obviously,
these are far weaker hands than the reserve holders of entire countries.
 Is industry prepared to pay more for silver? Quite likely yes, it tends to be a minor cost
input in most of its manufacturing uses. But that’s a different question to whether
industry wants to pay higher prices, that’s always “no” whatever the subject. When the
price of gold stalls or falls Central Banks don’t liquidate to take profits but when the
same happens to silver, its speculators will ramp up short-term supply quickly by
dumping their positions.
 You, the speculator, are the reason silver is so volatile compared to gold. When
speculators fall in love with silver it goes up because new excess demand pushes it up,
when they cool on the metal’s prospects it goes down because that excess demand
now becomes excess supply. Silver’s major suppliers know that (the porphyry mines
that sell their metal at any price), the middlemen know this (JP Morgan has played and
won at silver for 13 years and counting), and the majority of end user demand knows
this too (industry, that doesn’t want to pay too much for its input cost). It’s time you
knew this too, it will help you stop dreaming dreams about the metal.
Bottom line: At a casino, the house wins. Although the comparison is hackneyed, some parts of
the stock market truly are casinos and the silver market is one of them. As Warren Buffett
correctly calls gambling “a tax on stupidity”, we can equally apply the phrase to taking on the
dominant position in any commodity, silver or otherwise, unless you bring the same or greater
amount of financial weaponry to the table. Last week it was silver and retail suckers were
shorn, date raped at U$28/oz by promoters who told them the story they wanted to hear
(“….telling you…$28…it’s the tipping point…”) and then made to pay up by a market that
immediately took a dollar from each and every one of them and then said they had three days
to pay….or roll over at a loss (). The Silver Squeeze Group will also claim last week as a great
victory and the days ahead will surely be filled with stories of protagonists receiving their
physical silver bars. They’ll tell you the squeeze is now on and next expiry will be even more
painful for the short counterparties, but my question is to wonder how many “victories” the
valiant longs are willing to take when they start with $28 and finish with $26.50 worth of metal?
And as for the current highly promotional atmosphere for all things silver, seeing a brokerage
(they want to sell you silver company shares, dontchaknow) ignore silver supply completely as
it teaches newbies about “the fundamentals of silver” should not be construed as a green flag
for the sector and rising interest in the metal (Sprott USA doesn’t tell half a story by pure
chance, they are now distributing).
Conclusion
IKN613 is done, we end with bullet points:
 Sell Peru. Do it before the rush. True for Ecuador, too.
 Last week’s drop in metals prices is more hot air than substance, rates are too low to
get gold selling off any further.
29

 Copper is still in its perfect storm, be long.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/02/schedule-for-week-of-february-28-2021.html
(2) https://redpineexp.com/red-pine-to-acquire-remaining-interest-in-wawa-gold-project-announces-financing-and-share-
consolidation/
(3) https://redpineexp.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/RPX-Powerpoint-Feb-2021.pdf
(4) https://redpineexp.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/WAWA_GOLD_43101_190716.pdf
(5) https://www.thenewswire.com/press-releases/1AJ6FNO44-norsemont-appoints-john-currie-as-vice-president-of-
exploration.html
(6) https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/great-bear-closes-oversubscribed-bought-deal-private-placement-raising-
gross-proceeds-of-c-70-million-now-funded-through-2022-with-over-c-100-million-in-cash-841896722.html
(7) https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/marimaca-announces-c-30-9-million-non-brokered-private-placement-
853660540.html
(8) https://www.buenaventura.com/assets/uploads/presentaciones/2021/e7b7bacf13ccaf28f17ffc8bdc21f868.pdf
(9) https://seekingalpha.com/article/4409664-compania-de-minas-buenaventura-saa-bvn-ceo-leandro-garcia-on-q4-
2020-results-earnings-call
(10) https://www.manitougold.com/news/news-releases/manitou-gold-provides-exploration-update-on-its-100-owned-
goudreau-project
(11) https://noticiasser.pe/yonhy-lescano-asegura-que-proyecto-minero-conga-no-se-ejecutara-en-caso
(12) https://larepublica.pe/elecciones/2021/02/28/yonhy-lescano-sube-al-primer-lugar-seguido-de-veronika-mendoza-
pltc/?ref=lre
(13) https://www.primicias.ec/noticias/lo-ultimo/yaku-perez-minimiza-criticas-iza-vargas-
(14) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/chile/
(15) https://www.animalpolitico.com/2021/02/disminuye-riesgo-semaforo-covid-estados/
(16) https://fioregold.com/fiore-gold-announces-fiscal-q1-2021-results/
(17)
https://elink.clickdimensions.com/c/6/?T=ODQ0Mjg2ODc%3AMDItYjIxMDU3LTU5YTg1YzM5MWI4MTQyM2RiOWQwN
2MyMzEzOWU3MTg1%3AcmVucnV0a3JhbUB5YWhvby5jby51aw%3AbGVhZC1hY2RlYzVkNTJhZjllYTExYTgxNTAwM
GQzYTBjOTRhNi03Y2FjOTVhMGYyYjA0NzY0ODUyNWIxNzE4NGNkMDljMw%3AZmFsc2U%3AMw%3A%3AaHR0cH
M6Ly9zcHJvdHQuY29tL21lZGlhLzI5NjAvd2ViY2FzdC1zaWx2ZXItZnVuZGFtZW50YWxzLXNoaW5lLWJyaWdodC5wZ
GY_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT13ZWJjYXN0JnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPXdlYmNhc3Qtc2lsdmVyL
WZ1bmRhbWVudGFscy1zaGluZS1icmlnaHQmX2NsZGVlPWNtVnVjblYwYTNKaGJVQjVZV2h2Ynk1amJ5NTFhdyUzZ
CUzZCZyZWNpcGllbnRpZD1sZWFkLWFjZGVjNWQ1MmFmOWVhMTFhODE1MDAwZDNhMGM5NGE2LTdjYWM5N
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Appendix 1: Flash update date Tuesday February 23rd
Good Tuesday afternoon, lunchtime with two and a half hours to go in the trading day.
The news from Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v) an hour ago came under trading halt.
https://redpineexp.com/red-pine-exploration-clarifies-disclosure-in-certain-news-releases-2/
Expect the stock to rocket when the halt comes off. Three strategy bullet points:
 RPX has come to an agreement to consolidate 100% ownership of its Wawa project.
 Ex head of Detour Gold, Paul Martin, has joined as chair. CEO Quinton Yarie has recently disposed of his
other officer/executive positions at other companies to focus on RPX.
 RPX has announced a financing at its current 4c price to fund the transaction and first stages of its new
development period.
The Wawa project has been held back for years by its fractured ownership, the deal closes that problem but the NR
today also launches RPX into action immediately as a renovated company. Its placement will be extremely popular, as
it's akin to seeding an IPO as RPX transforms. With the planned 10: share rollback, we will end with a company with
around 85m shares out, they cannot be priced as cheaply as 40c (i.e. today's 4c financing rolled back) and any price
offered this afternoon is likely cheap, too.
If you can get some at a price close to the 4c and 5c it has traded recently, they will pay you well later. However, I'm not
making a formal call on the stock today, instead RPX will be a feature company in IKN614 this weekend, you get a
formal decision then.
Best, Mark
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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