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The IKN Weekly
Week 612, February 14th 2021
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, A Monday for families and Presidents, Gold may be in for a
consolidation period.
Fundamental Analysis: Reviewing the four house copper positions.
Stocks to Follow: Fiore Gold (F.v), Element 29 (ECU.v): Strategic Metals (SMD.v): Minera IRL
(MIRL.cse): Royal Road (RYR.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, C3 Metals (CCCM.v), Solaris (SLS.to).
Producer Basket: Overview, Agnico (AEM), Newmont (NEM), StreamerWatch.
Tiny Dogs: Overview, Contact Gold (C.v), Antler Gold (ANTL.v).
Regional Politics: The Ecuador election and second round scenarios, Ecuador: Cuenca votes
against mining, Tracking Chile and Peru Covid-19 cases (week five), Takeaways from the
Mexico Mining Forum 2021, Chile: Codelco invests, Peru Presidential election: Two months to
go and an IPSOS poll.
Market Watching: Dominican Republic: Minister Almonte curbs enthusiasm, Vizsla Silver
(VZLA.v) insiders cash out.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
“
In today’s edition
 We do two main things today, the first one is copper. As well as the ongoing coverage
of The Copper Basket, this week’s main fundies section goes over our four open copper
trades and considers them in the light of present evidence.
 Mining is now directly in the line of fire in Ecuador. Today’s other main event is to
attempt to map the madness around the Ecuador Presidential election, its ongoing
uncertainty and map the possible outcomes. That’s in Regional Politics and there aren’t
many good scenarios for mining inside the mess, either.
 Other things as well, there are always other things.
A Monday for families and Presidents
A reminder that tomorrow Monday 15th February is a market holiday in both The USA
(President’s Day/Washington’s Birthday) and in Canada (Family Day), with all markets closed.
Gold may be in for a consolidation period
Further thoughts on the long-dated charts of GLD inventories and its derivative inventory/price
ratio, those two charts we use to gauge insto appetite for gold. We start here:
1

GLD gold holdings, 2016 to 2021 (metric tonnes)
1400
1350
1300
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
2
61/4/1 61/61/3 61/62/5 61/8/8 61/81/01 61/92/21 71/41/3 71/42/5 71/4/8 71/61/01 71/72/21 81/21/3 81/22/5 81/2/8 81/21/01 81/42/21 91/8/3 91/02/5 91/13/7 91/01/01 91/02/21 02/5/3 02/51/5 02/82/7 02/7/01 02/71/21
mt
source: SPDR GLD data
Trying to keep the visual uncluttered, the two arrows to the left represent the period in
2015/2016 when GLD holdings moved up around 350 metric tonnes (mt), the lowest low
coming between Christmas and New Year. We peaked at around 980mt, then an adjustment of
around 150mt and an extended period in which GLD holdings did very little. The second set of
arrows to the right depicts our more recent gold inventory run-up, the addition to the peak at
1,278mt around 404mt. Since then we’ve come off 136mt, which also reminds me of how the
mania phase in early to mid-2016 left holdings at GLD.
There are other things in common too, such as the way both periods of higher inventories
ended with a US Presidential election. However, the inventory/price ratio shows much less
interest at the moment, the peak and fall in 2017 were further and faster.
8.40 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2016 to 2021
8.20
8.00
7.80
7.60
7.40
7.20
7.00
6.80
6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80
5.60
61/4/1 61/71/2 61/13/3 61/21/5 61/42/6 61/8/8 61/02/9 61/1/11 1/41/21 71/03/1 71/41/3 71/62/4 71/8/6 71/12/7 71/1/9 1/61/01 1/82/11 81/11/1 81/62/2 81/01/4 81/22/5 81/5/7 81/61/8 81/82/9 81/9/11 1/42/21 91/7/2 91/22/3 91/6/5 91/81/6 91/13/7 91/21/9 1/42/01 91/6/21 02/22/1 02/5/3 02/71/4 02/1/6 02/41/7 02/52/8 02/7/01 2/81/11 12/4/1
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
The recipe for gold price inertia is beginning to form, with a rebounding GDP, improvements in
workforce and new growth opportunities and with the vaccine, we hope an end to the Covid-19
induced gloom and predictions of The New Roaring Twenties. Those negative for gold are
countered, at least for the time being, by the weak dollar, set about by loose monetary policy in
order to stimulate the economy. As such, the house theory paints a period much like 2017 to
mid-2019, when gold trod water while people did other, more exciting things with their money
than park it in the safe haven. That would also imply we are back to something like normal with
our macro-economic signals, so if the above works we also get the signal to leave; under a
rising GDP in 2022+, once the Fed starts jawboning rate raises, gold’s game will be up.
That’s the end of the gold commentary for the week, we dedicate the rest of IKN612 to a more
exciting metal.

Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Reviewing the four house copper positions
Now the metal is running hard, copper companies large and small are in fashion and here at
The IKN Weekly, we’ve brazenly jumped on the bandwagon by adding Copper Mountain and
more recently Element 29 (ECU.v) to our portfolio mix. Both those trades have started well, but
the relative underperformance (to date) of the two longer-held investment positions, Trilogy
(TMQ) and Excelsior (MIN.to), have not been as impressive recently. With all that in mind and
as preview to the main reporting season (e.g. CMMC next week), this week’s fundies section
reviews our four current copper positions. The main event is a close look at the frustrating stop-
start-stop events around Excelsior (MIN.to), but there’s actionable angles at all our stocks this
weekend. Without further ado
Excelsior Mining (MIN.to): The positives around a negative financing
Time to catch up with Excelsior Mining (MIN.to) and make a renewed call on the stock, taking
into account recent developments and, of course, the news of its financing as announced last
week (1). The best way to begin is to quote some NR, we highlight the pay dirt:
“…it has entered into an agreement with Scotiabank and PI Financial Corp. as joint
bookrunners and underwriters (the “Underwriters”), pursuant to which the Underwriters
have agreed to buy on a bought deal basis 21,100,000 units (the “Units”) of the
Company, at a price of C$0.95 per Unit for gross proceeds of approximately C$20
million (the “Offering”). Each Unit consists of one common share (each a “Common
Share”) and one warrant (each a “Warrant”). Each Warrant is exercisable to acquire a
Common Share (each a “Warrant Share”) at an exercise price of C$1.25 for a period
of 18 months from the closing of the Offering.”
The bought deal announced by MIN.to last week came out the blue and was the classic bucket
of iced-cold water on its share price move:
For better context of those recent moves, the 12 month chart (below) shows the recent phases
of price movements well enough first that long
period in 2020 when copper moved and it didn’t,
second the chase up to $1.10 or so, then the
recent weakness brought about by that error-
strewn Crux Investor piece. MIN had just climbed
back from that when this financing hit, the optics
are horrible. As were the terms, on first
consideration at least. A bought deal at 95c is
one thing, but attaching what now looks like
almost 30m warrants at strike of C$1.25 makes
an immediate wall for share price upside. What’s
more, the terms of the deal mean we are surely
going to get instos blowing out their shares at
the first opportunity and clipping the warrant, so
there will be near-term selling pressure against
even the C$1.00 line. Ugh, it was time to catch up with the company and get their input.
3

Company CEO Twyerould was unavailable with legitimate personal matters to attend to (I have
a call slated with him this week), instead this weekend I spoke with company IR JJ Jennex, who
had been briefed by the CEO and had solid answers for all queries at hand. You get bullet
points on what transpired.
 First the scenario, we knew the MIN treasury was beginning to look thin due to the
extended commissioning period. What we now know is that as at last weekend MIN
held C$12m at bank, was burning at C$1.5m to C$1.7m per month and that will only
increase as Gunnison gets into gear. From the phone call, we can now infer that MIN
expects to increase production thru Q1 and Q2, with a revised commercial production
announcement planned for the start 3q21. That would be a reasonable timeline, but it
also happens that at the board’s own reckoning, treasury will be down to C$5m before
the operation goes free cash flow positive and that is simply too tight for their taste.
 FWIW we now know MIN was in discussions with another group up to last week on
terms of a financing, so the board was already actively looking to raise cash. At that
point on Tuesday, an unsolicited offer came from the now book runners of this deal to
the MIN board and please note, the brokers were smart in avoiding contact with
management and went straight to the board. The board, with insto holder Greenstone
as quasi-helm, is the type that will take the easy solution at a cost. The brokerages
made a smart pitch to the right people and got a result from their fishing expedition,
MIN announced the deal and all momentum that had built in the stock was immediately
killed.
 How successful? Originally slated for C$20m, MIN has received offers for C$50m of
sales and with the overallotment fully taken and Greenstone exercising top-up rights,
MIN now expects gross proceeds of C$28m. As for the take-up, once it became clear it
was going to close in minutes, preference was given to the retail sector as the strategy
is also to float the warrant and make them tradable. This is an excellent idea, as it will
allow those who want to cash out to do so, thereby moving the overhang into tighter
hands and reduce its effect.
 We also spoke briefly about the Crux Investor hit piece (that swears it wasn’t) and VP
IR Jennex confirmed they had no prior contact with Crux Investor or Matt Gordon prior
to the report being published and if they had, they would have been able to correct the
litany of basic errors as well as the reality of corporate strategy, rather than somebody
else’s imagined one.
 Which brings up the other major subject of conversation and the heart of all matters,
an operations update and regarding the slow ramp-up of Gunnison, VP IR Jennex was
fair and straight about the way MIN hasn’t delivered as yet, even taking into account
the Covid-10 disruption of last year. But his mitigation and defence was also sound and
he noted two disparate factors, first the reasonably close neighbour Florence Copper
has now got through its test period on the five spot pattern they used and the test
program, wrapped up last November, provided the data for the strong PFS and then
the debt raising by Taseko to fund its project. However, Florence on its more simple 5
spot pattern took nine months to work through its glitches and get its well running to
specification, the same type of general test-return-test-improve-test cycle that MIN is
going through. Second, they have never hidden the fact that optimisation is time-
consuming and the “iron out the glitches” period would take up to a year, because the
well field has a typical test cycle time of around two weeks (i.e. make an adjustment
and the results show fully two weeks later). These things literally take time and Covid-
19 added more time with its own delays.
 And here’s the rub, as all signs are now pointing to a company that’s over its hump of
technical issues and in the “ironing out glitches” phase it should have enjoyed this time
last year. We can expect milestone announcements from MIN in the next six months,
4

the first will be the announcement that all the Phase One well field is operational and
breakthrough has been achieved at all pump heads. The should happen around the
turn of 1q21 (week either side and at that point, Gunnison should be good for 2mlbs
copper production per month (with the SW/EX plant ramping up to plan). That
milestone should also come with an updated schedule on how MIN expects Gunnison
production to increase and any changes to the expansion plans. Finally, the one we’ve
waited too long for should be at the turn of 2q21, MIN is looking to announce its mine
cash flow positive by then. That’s a schedule all right, one that if they keep successfully
should see the stock price banging up to our newly supposed $1.25 price ceiling on that
warrant overhang quickly. From there, we can make a more informed decision on the
future of this trade.
The bottom line to MIN today: The financing announced last week was another ex maple of
how retail gets hosed by bigger money. It’s one of the risks for the small fry investor who takes
a longer-term position in a stock, MN last week was a classic case of big money talking more
loudly than small money. The big money bought itself a great deal, current holders were diluted
and yes, we are allowed to complain to the company about that because their only defences
against accusations of failure of fiduciary duty are telling us about the long-term benefits.
However, three things:
1) I didn’t comment about this deal on the blog for good reason, as once my annoyance
level had dropped it’s clear there’s still a lot of meat left on the bone for a retail holder
of MIN. There’s still enough room for excellent profits, as long as the company executes
in 2021.
2) Regarding that, initial noises are good and the worst of the “glitchy phase” at Gunnison
is apparently behind us. With announcements on full Phase 1 wellhead break-though,
then commercial production in the pipeline, the naysayers will finally have to shut up.
3) This financing pleases big money and fills treasury to comfort levels, both those things
are strong positives for the year ahead.
We all hated this deal and rightly so, but once the mechanism had been explained to me, it also
reminded of the smart way certain brokerages will act by offering well-timed, lowball but useful
financings to companies at opportune moments. Bypassing the officer suite and going to the
boardroom was the right move and I cannot help but admire the way these deals become
“offers you cannot refuse”. The call on MIN is to hold through or add if you’re feeling bold, but
where we are today has all the look and feel of a bottom, one carved out by smart brokeraging
but a bottom all the same. As for that $1.25 overhang, that’s a bridge we can cross when we
come to it as by then, an open warrants market may have taken the problem away.
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to): Hold through earnings!
Our main copper producer play, Copper Mountain, reports its 4q20 and 2020 annual financials
this coming week on February 16th. The preview and webcast link from this NR (2) and, as you
might expect, we’ll have a better view of its 2021 outlook this time next weekend when we go
deep on its quarter. Today, the job is to make sure you hold tight through earnings, we begin
with a comparative price chart:
5

CMMC impressed both this desk and the market with its 4q20 production and 2021 guidance
NR, but since then the stock has failed to make any meaningful extra ground. It popped to over
$2.50 the week its new and deeply experienced chair, Ed Dowling, but when copper moved
back to test the U$3.50/lb line CMMC couldn’t hold those gains. In effect, new buyer of CMMC
can get in at same-or-better prices than around its production price hike, even with copper now
making new highs and on its way to U$4.00/lb. Aside the improvement in CMMC operations and
the new strength we see in its financials, the reason to like CMMC is its leverage to copper and
we expect that to continue.
We’ve already seen the effect of the leverage to
copper’s rising price at CMMC, this operating profit
chart (right) taken directly from our analysis in
IKN607 dated January 10th 2021 and reflecting how
just one year ago, CMMC couldn’t turn an operating profit. Since then things have got into gear and on
Tuesday, we’ll know how close the IKN forecast of
C$44m in operating profit comes as well as forward
guidance for 2021. Information on whether CMMC
can execute on our expectations of producing 22m
lbs copper per quarter, then 25m lbs as from 4q20,
then any updated information on expected costs
(opex and capex) are the other main items I will be
looking for on the call.
However, today is the day to hold through on CMMC because none of the recent price hike is in
the share price yet. There are several different ways to slice and dice the data, perhaps the
simplest is to consider that at 22m lbs production per quarter, every 10c added to the price of a
pound of copper adds C$2.6m to top line revenues.
CMMC.to: Revenues
6
649.77 402.48 27.06 941.37 78.68 441.56 307.26 347.37 465.94 980.19 299.49 211
120
110
100
90
80
70
60 50 40
30
20
10
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 tse02q4
CMMC.to: Operating profit
$m
source: company filings
With an extra 20c/lb to add to copper forecasts, CMMC already implies a near 5% bonus on
forward revenues and it’s not a stretch to imagine CMMC returning a $120m gross revenies
quarter even before the planned production jhike in 4q21 and beyond. More importantly, as
there very little in the way of extra cost friction associated with the windfall revenue the boost
to operating profits is 10% and above.
In IKN607, we presented the copper price leverage argument by giving our baseline target
(CMMC is a C$3.80 stock at U$3.50/lb copper, representing an upside of 59.7% to this
weekend’s share price), then offered one simple hack on price upside:
U$3.50/lb copper = C$3.80 price target for CMMC
U$3.75/lb copper = C$3.92 price target for CMMC
U$4.00/lb copper = C$4.05 price target for CMMC
U$4.25/lb copper = C$4.17 price target for CMMC
Here’s another way, with 25c increments and projections for FY21 revenues for copper only
0.81-
8.82 3.93 0.44 0.64 0.34 0.14 0.74
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
02q1 02q2 02q3 tse02q4 tse12q1 tse12q2 tse12q3 tse12q4
source: company data, IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim

(gold adds around 17% to 18% to revenues, then a point also comes from silver) at different
prices, plus that raw top line number in Canadian Dollars per share:
CMMC.to: Price sensitivity to copper
Cu spot (U$/lb) FY21 Cu revs (U$m) in C$/share
3.00 273 1.64
3.25 296 1.78
3.50 319 1.92
3.75 341 2.05
4.00 364 2.19
4.25 387 2.33
4.50 410 2.47
source: CMMC filings, IKN calcs
With the typical gross margins of a base metals operation, it was not a coincidence to see a
C$1.92/share result at U$3.50/lb Cu, that being half the current IKN target price. We also see
the way top line revenues get poured on to CMMC at higher prices, to take but one example of
a price I firmly believe we’ll see in the near future, U$4.00/lb copper adds U$45m or
C$0.27/share and the cash flow projection would out-strip our previous ballpark target of
C$4.05 for CMMC shares at that average copper price.
As stated, several ways to demonstrate roughly the same thing, that at its current sub-C$500m
market cap CMMC is a real bargain. The argument in IKN607 was how CMMC is coming good at
just the right time to enjoy the copper bull run, that hasn’t changed a jot in the weeks since
then and the only real change is the confirmation that copper has plenty of legs left in its price
run. We will take a good look at the quarter and make any necessary adjustments to the model
next weekend in IKN613.
Element 29 (ECU.v) catching peers fast
Aside from the longer-term reasons to own ECU.v,
our haste last week in calling buy and getting on was
fully justified by what happened to the stock next
(see right). I am not sure, but that is certainly the
pattern of a stock reco and with no extra volume
through Canada and ECU opening its new German
ticker last week, without having paid much attention
to the tape last week it’s safe to say the re-rating to
peers has begun and the money was likely European.
Here’s that brief comparative table from last week,
suitably updated:
company ticker pps Shares out Market Cap
Regulus Res. REG.v 1.06 101.85 107.96
Chakana Cop PERU.v 0.52 117.2 60.94
C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.15 375.17 56.28
Element 29 ECU.v 0.59 66.7 39.35
ECU.v still has plenty to do to catch PERU.v and CCCM.v, though we should note that both
those already have financings under their belts as public entities. If ECU doesn’t go to market
and top up, we’d expect this run to get to at least 80c in order to get to reasonable parity with
the other companies doing the same checklist of exploration (exploreco drilling flagship for
copper in Peru). If it gets there we will have to talk more about their properties, including the
promising Elida and more on the Flor de Cobre project in South Peru too, (which on closer
inspection is better than I originally thought). That’s because, as noted last week, an 80c price
7

would give me the type of 50% gain in a brief period I want for a quick flip sale.
Trilogy Metals (TMQ) (TMQ.to): Time to play catch-up
TMQ had a good week last week, as seen here at market where it did lots of volume on the
NYSE ticker while out-performing copper benchmark ETF COPX:
That’s because this time, not only did it bring positive news to market but it finally got some
traction, as well. Last things first and while any filing of financials is important, the TMQ quarter
as filed Friday (3) contained no big surprises and its only direct financial obligation this year is a
$5.3m budget that is easily covered by its $1.1m in cash. Meanwhile the Ambler 50/50 JV fully
funded and paying for virtually everything, which brings us to the real market mover out of
TMQ on Thursday. Here’s how the NR (4) starts:
February 11, 2021 - Vancouver, British Columbia – Trilogy Metals Inc. (TSX/NYSE
American: TMQ) (“Trilogy” or the “Company”) has provided approval for Ambler Metals
LLC (“Ambler Metals”), the joint venture operating company equally owned by Trilogy
and South32 Limited (ASX, LSE, JSE: S32; ADR: SOUHY) (“South32”), to enter into
an Ambler Access Development Agreement with the Alaska Industrial Development
and Export Authority (“AIDEA”).
This was greeted warmly by the market, and rightly so. In one fell swoop we have a formal
right-of-way agreement from government, a budget commitment for the all-important road, a
co-operative deal to develop it between the two parties, a limit date for a build decision (2024)
and action on the major bottleneck to success and price re-rating. TMQ stock reacted well last
week, but it’s not always so. It doesn’t march to the same beat as other most Canadian copper
explorecos or developers, that connected to the way it was built around New York money and
of how NYSE does around 10x the volume of its dot
tee oh counterpart. Seeing TMQ take off on long-
overdue volume is seeing the New York cash
starting to move back in and, with all ducks now
moving into line, it’s not going to be a difficult sell
among NY instos and desks.
Let’s be clear, a re-rate in this under-performer is
long over due, as seen by pulling the timeline out
on the previous chart to 12 months (right). New
York City will like the catch-up angle to this story,
too. Expect this to move quickly as the world
realizes how smart South 32 was to buy 50% at
2020 prices and sees it’s only a matter of time
before it takes the other 50%.
8

Stocks to Follow
We first address the fact that, with the addition of Element 29 (ECU.v) last week, the list is back
up to 17 open positions, which is not good after getting it back to its nominal 15 and saying it
would stay there. The reason? To quote Wilde, I can resist anything except temptation and we
are now in a target-rich environment. Getting longer copper at the right time means I
bend/break my own rules a little (and FWIW there’s no more personal wriggle room, any
further personal purchase must be funded a sale) and so be it. We may stay at 17 open
positions for a while, however there are a couple of potential sales in the offing which depend
on near-term market conditions and their own news flow. We shall see.
Now for the week and, of the 17 open positions, seven were week-over-week winners (MAI.v,
CMMC.to, TMQ, SMD.v, RYR.v, ECU.v, MENE.v), two were unchanged (AUL.v, TORO.v) and
eight were losers (RIO.v, NOM.cse, NGD, MIN.to, GBR.v, ORE.v, KUYA.cse, MIRL.cse). However
it was a positive week for the paper value of the personal port, as despite that 4c shaved off
RIO.v in lacklustre trading, the big upmoves in Trilogy (TMQ up 12.4%) Royal Road (RYR.v up
28.3%) and Element 29 (ECU.v up 31.1%) made a difference. Biggest loser was MIRL.cse,
down 10.0%.
Next up, please note that along with ECU’s arrival and the perfect storm around copper at
present, I’ve jigged the order of preference for the main list of recommended stocks. Speaking
plainly, I currently think CMMC, TMQ, NOM and SMD are the best near-term opportunities on
the list, this near-term opinion does not detract an inch from the best long-term investment
ideas at the top of the table.
With the addition of ECU.v to our list we now have 17 open positions, two over our self-
imposed maximum. Hmmmm. Of the 17, nine are in the green and eight in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.60 185.7% New $1.14 tgt Aug'20 #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.77 -7.2% $1.58 tgt, bot again Nov'20
Recommended stocks (In order of preference)
Copper Mountain CMMC.to STR BUY C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$2.38 70.0% Added Dec'20, trade for FY21
Trilogy Metals TMQ STR BUY U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$2.36 28.3% Added Dec'20, Cu for 2021
Norsemont Mining NOM.cse STR BUY C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.86 -44.5% bot 3x for 2021 run
Strategic Metals SMD.v STR BUY C$0.40 31-Jan-21 C$0.42 5.0% Asset $ trade, proj generator
New Gold NGD BUY U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$1.77 132.9% 3q20 tgt $2.80
Excelsior Mining MIN.to BUY C$0.98 10-Mar-19 C$0.95 -3.1% Added again Dec'20, Cu'21
Royal Road Min. RYR.v BUY C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.385 148.4% Model paying off in Nica
Element 29 Res ECU.v BUY C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.59 20.4% new Cu exploreco trade
Great Bear Res GBR.v BUY C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$14.95 -5.6% M&A major tgt, added IKN590
Orezone ORE.v BUY C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$0.98 24.1% M&A window or re-rate later
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse hold C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.15 29.5% new Peru Ag jr, may take profit
Aurelius Res AUL.v spec buy C$0.075 28-Jun-20 C$0.05 -33.3% 1st assays promising, spec buy
Pucara Gold TORO.v spec buy C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.29 -55.4% Strike One
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.135 -30.8% hold until further news
Long-term non-mining hold
Mene Inc. MENE.v LT Hold C$0.65 6-Dec-20 C$0.63 -3.1% LT bet on jockey&horse,will add
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.25 27.6% still closing, should go to 1.40
2015 to 2020 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
9

Now for some notes on covered stocks:
Fiore Gold (F.v) sales update: It looks horrid to have those XX there, so I’ve priced the sale
at my minor sale of the other day $1.25. This may still see adjustment, plenty more to sell once
F.v gets its mojo back and I still expect an out at $1.40 or above.
Element 29 (ECU.v): Position opened. A line or two to make official the new position, as
per the plan from IKN611 last weekend. However, as noted above we got a slice of dumb luck
with the timing and bought just before marketing money pushed the stock up. All good.
Strategic Metals (SMD.v): First up, I was unjust toward SMD last week, indirectly giving it a
“highest risk of all” label aside plays such as AUL or TORO. Second up, another great deal as it
swaps land for 19.9% of an exploreco. This time it’s Honey Badger (TUF.v), a failed junior to
date which has just seen new management take over and its new direction into silver revealed.
Meanwhile, the beauty of the SMD business model is on show, as it takes just a few of its land
assets, unloved and unrewarded by the market for year, and swaps them for a minority position
in its fifth public company. This is mini-M&A, fuelled by a team’s brains trust and eye for good
exploration terrain instead of dollars. In trading, SMD moved up on the news to 42c and it could
go a lot higher if its asset suite gets even a fraction of the same reward as the projects chosen
by TUF. We also saw drill results out of partner company Rokmaster that were better than the
market allowed, SMD will be a font of news all year it seems.
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): While it’s not the reason to either own this stock (Ollachea) or be
annoyed at the company (Corihuarmi is run well, but Corporate vision and mission is a proven
joke), its small Corihuarmi operation gave us its January 2021 production numbers and that’s a
decent excuse to update this tracking chart:
MIRL: 2019/20 Corihuarmi gold prod & shipments, per month
10
9681 7051 3751 7902 7322 0731 6291 6662 3281 7412 0091 9581 4181 5261 6571 1602 4931 5641 5122 3102 9141 3122 0342 9871
3312
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500 1000
500
0
91naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 02naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 12naj
Oz Au
contained oz
shipments
source: CSE
Good shipment numbers, but it’s notable how pad ounces have dropped from the high built in
4q20. It has the look of an internal decision, it also coincides with the traditional January
vacation period in Peru and in the environment we have at the moment, doing the employees
summer break periods wholesale is a smart move. Expect pad ounces to build back up by
quarter’s end.
Said it before and will say it again, Corihuarmi is enough to keep the company afloat, no more.
If we consider its basic cash generation ability as 6,000 oz Au per quarter at an AISC of
U$1,200/oz, agreed that the company can do more with the approximate U$4m/qtr cash flow
than it could with the $2m flows of 2019 and 2020, but it’s still not enough to move Ollachea
forward organically or make any meaningful dent in the debt load
Royal Road (RYR.v): A good week, good volume and an eye-catching percentage move on
the back of the initial drill results from its Caribe target in Nicaragua, but RYR is still finding it
hard to break above 40c and move on. With a double-plus in the hand, it may be time to sell
and move on while the company gets to bask in its success. The second part of “buy low sell
high” is always the most difficult.

The Copper Basket
After six weeks of 2021, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 10.46% to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.08 104.67 640.58 6.12 0.7%
2 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 1.81 207.5 493.85 2.38 31.5%
3 Oroco Res OCO.v 1.85 185.11 327.64 1.77 -4.3%
4 Western Copper WRN.to 1.57 135.6 231.88 1.71 8.9%
5 Excelsior Min. MIN.to 1.12 239.063 227.11 0.95 -15.2%
6 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.25 64.358 220.75 3.43 5.5%
7 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.80 180.77 150.04 0.83 3.7%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.07 101.85 107.96 1.06 -0.9%
9 Chakana Cop PERU.v 0.60 117.2 60.94 0.52 -13.3%
10 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.115 375.17 56.28 0.15 30.4%
11 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.455 93.64 51.50 0.55 20.9%
12 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.45 66.7 39.35 0.59 31.1%
13 Doré Copper DCMC.v 1.00 40.938 33.98 0.83 -17.0%
14 Crown Mining CWM.v 0.105 87.53 16.63 0.19 81.0%
15 Chibougamau CBG.v 0.165 46.695 7.24 0.155 -6.1%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 10.46%
Week six brings the debut of our Copper The Copper Basket 2021, weekly evolution
Basket tracking chart for the year, coming at
12%
a nice time for the basket and a decent move
10%
on the week for the metal and the miners.
8%
The week saw losers as well as winners, with 6%
five stocks dropping (SLS.to, OCO.v, MIN.to, 4%
MARI.to, DCMC.v) and one other unchanged 2%
(PERU.v). That means nine winners and 0%
among them, the best of the gains were in Jan 1st Jan10th 17th 24th 31st feb7th 14th
the smaller cap stocks such Element 29
source: IKN calcs
(ECU.v up 31.1%) and Crown Mining (CWM.v
up 22.6%), though Amerigo (ARG.to up
12.1%) and old stalwart Western (WRN.to up 11.0%) also did well.
The reason for the bullish week is simplicity itself:
The Chinese New Year celebrations have now started and while those markets will be very quiet
11

this week and quiet the next, copper didn’t wait for the post-holiday demand forecasts before
moving higher. Straight out of the playbook as mapped out in IKN610 last week, copper is now
enjoying its perfect storm of weaker US Dollar, continued high demand in its major market,
supply concerns and now, a speculative market grabbing on to the move and sending
speculative shorts packing. Copper is going higher and as we have commented in previous
editions, rare indeed are the price moves for the metal that go above U$3.50/lb and fail before
U$4.00/lb. With all fundamentals in its favour, it would take a large market shock to stop
copper’s run mid-stream.
In this week’s “But don’t take my word for it” curated commentary on copper this was
impossible to resist (5). Under the prosaic title “Copper hovers near eight-year high as Chinese
holiday starts”, we receive words of whizz dumb from our anal yst du jour:
Many analysts forecast a multi-year bull run as demand outpaces supply, though
Gianclaudio Torlizzi, a partner at consultant T-Commodity, said the market may be
getting ahead of itself.
“The more the price moves up in the very short term the bigger the fall will be in the
second half of this year,” he said. “The $7,000 level will be retested. If it goes to
$9,000, that will be a good opportunity to short.”
It’s never too difficult to find the thoughts of chocolate fireguard anal ysts, we in this space
usually see them attached to gold and silver price predictions. In this case and copper,
considering his trading range translated to between U$3.17/lb and U$4.08/lb and that his
considered opinion that “if it goes up more it will go down more later” is based solidly in the
truth, one has to wonder just how actionable such advice might be. We move to the regular
weekly world copper inventories section:
 World aggregate inventories rose last week, the total up 5,062 metric tonnes (mt) and
not a moment too soon for the sector. This weekend the aggregate is 213,987mt.
 The main news is around the SHFE, which saw a second vital addition in the last week
before CNY closedown and added 9,983mt (+14.5%). Along with the week before, that
12kmt added in the first two weeks of February and the bottom signal we required, we
now wait to see how quickly tonnages re-stock in the post-holiday period. Make no
mistake, supply remains extremely tight.
 The LME lost 1,850mt and dropped back to a total of 74,700mt in stock this weekend.
Extremely tight and cancelled warrant percentages are rising again, implying new
drawdowns to come.
 A significant move in Comex stocks, which are now seeing their own drawdown (North
American demand improvement??). Stocks dropped down 3,071mt and closed at
60,716mt, the Comex warehouses have lost around 10% of their copper holdings since
November.
Here is the Shanghai-only inventories, we finally get the little hook on the far right of the
squiggly line that puts in the much-needed bottom.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
12
31'13ceD ht9 ht81 ht72 ht5tco ht41 dn22 5102
dr3yam
ht21 ht02 ht92 ht7bef ht71 ht62 ht4peS ht31 ht92 ht9 ht81 ht72 7102
ht5von
ht41 ht52 ht01 ht91 ht82 9102
ht6naJ
ht71 ht62 ht4gua ht31 dn22 0202ts1ram ht01 ht91 ht72 0202ht6ced ht41
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco

Now for notes on some of our basket companies:
C3 Metals (CCCM.v): This newcomer copper stock with its project in Peru announced the first
closing of its private placement (6) and announced the second tranche is scheduled closed by
February 28th. In the words of the company, “Upon closing of the Offering, an aggregate of
52,960,779 Shares will be issued for gross proceeds of $7,414,509, including the exercise of the
Agents' (as hereinafter defined) over allotment option.” No bad for a property cast off by
Hochschild, the officers now have their lifestyle cheques guaranteed. Indeed, the Agent terms
are worthy of some consideration:
“…the Company has agreed to: (i) pay a cash commission and a corporate finance fee in the
aggregate amount of $518,466; and (ii) issue a total of 3,706,900 non-transferrable broker
warrants (the "Broker Warrants"). Each Broker Warrant shall entitle the holder thereof to purchase
one Share at an exercise price of $0.14 per Share until the date that is four (4) months and one
(1) day from the closing date of the Offering.”
Easy money for the book runners (Eight Capital, Canaccord, Haywood) and now, our new
exploreco has been accepted into the bosom of the Canadian brokerages. The payment is a fat
and easy commission, the result is continued buoyancy and coverage of the stock. It’s how the
game is played and the people at C3 know that well, what they now need is exploration results
to justify the early price lift (and that won’t be so easy).
Solaris (SLS.to): Our only representative with exposure to Ecuador, let’s mark it at around
C$6.00 when Ecuador’s political troubles began to come to the surface. It’s also just after its
recent upgrade to the TSX main board and ATH, but it would be too cynical to point at those
data points as its run would have to come to a stop at some point. What matters now is the
passage from now until April 11th and the second round run-off, please see “Regional Politics”
for thoughts on that. Here, we’ll take Six Loonies as our 2021 political risk benchmark on SLS.
Here’s a paragraph of Mea Culpa on this missed trade as, wet sails full from the run in copper,
SLS has gone from IPO to half billion US Dollar market cap in six months and that’s no mean
achievement. It’s also a point of personal bemusement, which means it’s also a weak point in
my investment armour as, far too often, this desk assumes the market will assume a far greater
risk premium for explorecos in “the difficult countries”, an assumption shown wrong when the
market turns fully bullish. Recognizing a weak point is one thing and fixing it is another, but at
least you the reader should me aware of this long-term and annoying foible, if only to give you
another good excuse to ignore my point of view .
The Producer Basket
After six weeks of 2021, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 5.35% to level stakes.
13

company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out Mkt Cap (U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 59.89 803.36 47.35 58.94 -1.6%
2 Barrick GOLD 22.78 1779.04 39.41 22.15 -2.8%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 70.51 242.99 16.20 66.68 -5.4%
4 Kirkland Lake KL 41.27 272.984 10.44 38.25 -7.3%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 7.34 1260 9.30 7.38 0.5%
6 Pan American PAAS 34.71 210.17 7.00 33.33 -4.0%
7 Endeavour Min EDV.to 29.62 246.2 5.42 26.43 -10.8%
8 B2Gold BTG 5.60 1064 5.36 5.04 -10.0%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 8.75 392.73 3.20 8.15 -6.9%
10 Pretium Res PVG 11.48 187.254 2.04 10.87 -5.3%
Prices in U$ except EDV.to (share price in CAD$ and mkt cap in approx USD) Port. avg -5.35%
A mixed bag, tendency lower. We saw three week-over-week winners from our ten charges
(KGC, PAAS, AGI) and one was unchanged to the penny (BTG) and before closing the sentence,
note they are Tier 2 and lower end market cap. That leaves six losers (NEM, GOLD, AEM, KL,
EDV.to, PVG). Biggest upper was PAAS (+4.0%), biggest downers were EDV (-6.4%) and AEM
(-6.1%).
The 2021 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and The 2021 Producer Basket: Percentage difference between
10% comparative to GDX control GDX benchmark and basket (negative = IKN basket ahead)
8% basket 3.5%
6% gdx control 3.0%
4%
2% 2.5%
0% 2.0%
-2%
1.5%
-4%
-6% 1.0%
-8%
0.5%
-10%
0.0%
Jan 1st Jan10th 17th 24th 31st feb7th 14th
Jan 1st Jan10th 17th 24th 31st feb7th 14th
source: Google, IKN Calcs source: IKN calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq/TSX data
Agnico Eagle (AEM): Always one of the first up to report their quarter, AEM dropped on its
4q20 and year-end filing. Friday was the first time AEM has been under U$68 since the Covid-
19 Crash recovery, apart from the short, sector-wide trough that came after the US election.
The market didn’t like costs, which came in higher than expected. It also drew breath on the
news that along with partner Yamana, AEM has approved the U$1.7Bn budget for the Odyssey
UG extension project to their Canadian Malartic asset, which will employ up to 500 people
during construction phase to 2028 and then, according the plan, supply feed until 2039. The
IRR at U$1,550/oz gold is 17.5%, which is reasonable and the type of number you’d expect a
board to green-light under the current favourable circumstances.
14

Newmont (NEM): Thursday Feb 18th brings us the 4q20 numbers from NEM, with a webcast
here (7) that is required viewing for any PM mining analyst this year, no matter what size of
company they normally cover. Guided production for FY20 is 6.0m oz attributable gold (with
about 1m oz of AuEq in other metals) and last week, we got the preview when NEM announced
its end year reserve total. Here’s a table:
NEM AU prod and reserves
year Reserves Attr.Prod
2015 71.1 4.584
2016 68.5 5.172
2017 68.5 5.266
2018 65.4 5.101
2019 95.7 6.291
2020 94 6.0 (est)
source: NEM filings
Notable how the NEM numbers have grown in recent years. Please also reflect on the classic
line used by junior/exploreco investors that “the majors must keep reserves high, therefore
they must buy”. That, as we see here, is not a high-priority item for NEM, an inconvenient fact
that junior pumpers prefer to ignore, now that the data goes against their argument.
StreamerWatch: Our ongoing eye on the
royalty/streamer plays in 2021, as this desk believes the
sub-sector will underperform:
Of our three on the watchlist, the big FNV continues to
hold its own against the GDX benchmark. Not so for the
smaller market cappers, as SAND failed to impress with
its FT20 numbers last week and up’n’coming Metalla
(MTA.v) has finally hit a valuation wall.
The Tiny Dogs
After six weeks of 2021, the Tiny Dogs show a gain of 7.57% to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Antler Gold ANTL.v 0.205 61.348 10.12 0.165 -19.5%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.045 163.975 8.20 0.05 11.1%
Constantine Met CEM.v 0.17 45.4 10.44 0.23 35.3%
Contact Gold C.v 0.115 240.757 26.48 0.11 -4.3%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.22 40 7.60 0.19 -13.6%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.045 230.79 18.46 0.08 77.8%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.240 106.241 24.97 0.235 -2.1%
QC Copper QCCU.v 0.315 105 24.15 0.23 -27.0%
Red Pine Expl RPX.v 0.040 477.22 21.47 0.045 12.5%
Warrior Gold WAR.v 0.090 91.818 8.72 0.095 5.6%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 7.57%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
15

size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
A positive a week for our ten components, with
five stocks up and the overall average adding 10% Tiny Dogs, 2021 weekly tracker
nicely thanks to bigger wins from Constantine 9%
8%
(CEM.v up 24.3%), Red Pine (RPX.v up 12.5%),
7%
QC Copper (QCCU.v up 12.2%) and Aston Bay
6%
(BAY.v up 11.1%). Those were more than 5%
enough to absorb the four losers, including the 4%
3%
big drop in Antler Gold (ANTL.v down 17.5%)
2%
and smaller one on Contact Gold (C.v down
1%
8.3%). The UNCH was GDP.v. And as the other 0%
sections get one, this is going to have its first full Jan 1st Jan10th 17th 24th 31st feb7th 14th
year in 2021, here’s the first week of the tracking source: IKN calcs, TSX data
visual aid for Tiny Dogs. The only thing I read
into the pattern so far is that, unlike other sub-sectors, it has remained nicely positive in the
first weeks of 2021.
Contact Gold (C.v): We’ve been paying more attention
to C.v recently as Green Springs has become flagship and
location for all work in the first half of the year (Pony
Creek gets attention later), so we at least register the
new assays released by the company on Tuesday (8),
which include two good holes from four at the Alpha
Zone target. The highlighted hole on the map, that of
39m of 1.45 g/t gold, includes 2.09 g/t gold over
21.34m, with mineralization starting 26m from the collar.
Those are the hits you want when building an open pit
resource and the next hole to look out for is the one that
potentially connected mineralization between the Alpha
and Bravo zones. If that returns a wide intercept of the
same material, the inference on resource number will be
substantial.
C.v dropped on the news last week, but odn’t read too
much into that, it’s a weird market. However, its lack of
traction my continue until we have a better handle on
exactly what C.v has at Green Springs, which makes any
quasi-maiden resource from C.v a significant catalyst.
Antler Gold (ANTL.v): No news, behind the 17.5%
drop last week, but as the company started a limited,
3,500m RC drill campaign at the beginning of December
at its new exploration target, we should have those
results soon. Therefore jungle drums are not great.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It is possible that in the
future I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, but at the moment both my opinion and my wallet are strictly
neutral.
16

Regional politics
The Ecuador election and second round scenarios
Your political junkie author didn’t need the impeachment hearings in The USA, as Ecuador
provided all the drama you’d ever need, right here in South America. A lot of water has flowed
under the bridge of Ecuadorian politics since last weekend, when we tracked the tight vote as
far as possible before sending the edition later than normal. The tight fight for second and the
crucial place in the run-off with Andrés Arauz still isn’t resolved and isn’t likely to be for another
two weeks, a hand re-count now mandated (8) in many regions due to the closeness of the
vote as well as some evidence of vote tally issues biased against Yaku Pérez (9). The president
of Ecuador’s voting body CNE, one Diana Atamaint, said on Saturday that the process will
involve the hand counting of around six million ballots and estimated it would take around 15
days for a result in the main region of contention, Guayas, with other regions coming in more
quickly. If so, we will have a definitive result to Round One at the end of this month, which will
allow March and the first 11 days of April for the run-off campaign.
The events are also closely tied to the near-term future of mining in Ecuador, which makes the
political events to come in the country tradable and actionable. Our job is to sift through the
mess left by last weekend’s surprise election results and map out the threats it now poses to
Ecuador’s “nascent mining industry” a well-worn cliché. We begin by reviewing IKN611 and,
among the lines written about the possible passage of Yaku Pérez to the second round run-off
was this:
“Let’s state it plainly, the Yaku Pérez second round entry is a nightmare scenario for mining.”
At that point Yaku Pérez held a slight lead in the count. This weekend,, with just 0.16% of
ballot papers left to be processed (i.e. votes cast on foreign soils that are mailed into the
country later) the preliminary result stands as such:
 Andrés Arauz: 32.71%
 Guillermo Lasso: 19.74%
 Yaku Pérez: 19.38%
 Xavier Hervas: 15.69%
Brief notes on those numbers:
 Arauz enjoyed a dose of winner’s syndrome, with undecided voters moving to him in
the last days.
 Early favourite to win the election, Guillermo Lasso severely under-performed and faded
badly on the run in to the vote, his lunch eaten on either side by Yaku Pérez and the
surprising Xavier Hervas.
 Even though Yaku Pérez may have just failed to get that 2nd spot (still undecided), we
shouldn’t underestimate his achievement of almost pulling off a massive upset, as well
as scoring Pachakutik their biggest electoral victory ever. His political capital has
increased enormously and henceforth, he is a serious player on the national scene.
 The other big winner and surprise from last week was Xavier Hervas, who came from
nowhere after impressing in the TV debates and was just a couple of weeks’ worth of
momentum away from catching Lasso himself.
With the recount underway, we can therefore state that Yaku Pérez still has a chance of
entering the second round. We therefore need to consider the two most likely scenarios:
1) A run-off between Andrés Arauz and Yaku Pérez: This is now possible but unlikely, there may
be vote tally problems but it’s going to be difficult to eat Lasso’s near 33,000 vote advantage.
However, with so many twists and turns already we should make room for this potential second
round and if Pérez is there, it will truly be a nightmare for mining companies. His image is now
“the one who can beat Correa” and he’d more easily gather the “anyone but Arauz/Correa”
voters around him. In short, he’d start favourite.
17

2) A run-off between Andrés Arauz and Guillermo Lasso: This is now the most probable
outcome, even though it will take until the end of the month to reach it. Chances are that the
votes have not been stuffed to the extent required and the pre-election forecast of a run-off
between Arauz and Lasso now happens, but if so it now happens under markedly changed
circumstances due to the support garnered by the 3rd placed and 4th placed candidates and
Lasso’s weakened position. Guillermo Lasso leaves the first round vote a weakened candidate
as on one side he fractured votes away to the impressive campaign of Yaku Pérez, then almost
as important for what is going to happen, the late challenge from new rising star Xavier Hervas
took many votes away from the establishment candidate. Ecuador spoke clearly to Guillermo
Lasso via the back pocket too, as around him it voted up three nominally left wing candidates in
the first four places around him. True, those left wingers run of different platforms…
 Andrés Arauz: Left wing “Citizen’s Revolution Part 2” and plans to return to the Correa
agenda. 32%
 Yaku Pérez: Left wing ecology, but practical and orthodox in many aspects of fiscal and
monetary policy 20%
 Xavier Hervas: Left wing but business and enterprise friendly. Similarly to Lasso, a
native of Guayaquil and a successful businessman. Unlike Lasso, a new face and
offering plenty of social programming in his political manifesto, he’s best pigeonholed
as centre-left. 16%
…but between them they still cover 68% of the votes cast last weekend and Guillermo Lasso is
no naïve politico, he knows that in order to stop Arauz from picking up the 19% or so of votes
he needs, he has to get nearly all the votes that went to Hervas and Pérez on his side.
Lasso will move to the centre in order to win round two, but he has a clear roadmap on how to
do that. This is where the so-called “Anti-Vote” comes into play, as before the first round polls
put the number of people who said they would not vote for Andrés Arauz “under any
circumstances” was 70%, compared to around 60% for those trying to join him in round two. If
we consider that the national vote is mandatory and on this occasion gathered 81% of valid
votes, we can discount the 19% from the “anti-vote” totals. This dataset points us to the major
issue Arauz has in Round Two, his pathway to the extra 19% he needs to become President-
Elect is more difficult than the 30% or so Lasso needs. This beside the previous data point, that
if Yaku Pérez squeaks second place he’s considered favourite by all Ecuador political
commentators to have an easier pathway to 51% than either Lasso or Arauz.
But back to the most likely round two and, once he saw the tight count going his way,
Guillermo Lasso started making “second round noises” on Feb 10th, chief among them this (10)
“As an obligation with all the people of Ecuador, I want to say that I have no
problem including proposals from wide sectors of citizens who voted for other
candidates.”
Lasso knows he must strike coalition deals with Yaku Pérez and
Xavier Hervas to stand a chance of winning. In some respects that
will suit him, as he’ll be able to hang his political beliefs and
ideologies in the closet for a while and go along with more left
wing policies in certain areas. To give an idea of the issue, here’s a
map that estimates the make-up of the next Congress’s majority
seats by political party. In Coastal Ecuador, Arauz has a tight hold
on power. Hervas and Lasso hold sway in their home states, then
the rural and jungle zones of Amazon basin Ecuador are under
Pachakutik’s control. In other words, the country is ungovernable
without agreements and Lasso will not be able to rule by edict
from Quito. And while on the subject, though our early projection
18

that Pachakutik would hold the largest number of seat in the next parliament didn’t stand up to
the later vote count, the split of the next parliament looks like this:
Pachakutik’s 26 projected seats is still the second block and in order for any business to get
done in the next five years, alliances and coalitions must happen with Yaku Pérez and with
Xavier Hervas too, though getting two successful businessmen-cum-politicos on the same page
will likely be easier (and Hervas is far more anti-Correa/Arauz than he is anti-Lasso). We should
therefore pay attention to Hervas’s party manifesto, as among other matters he wants to
suspend the controversial ITT Yasuni oil and gas development contract, suspend mining
activities near water sources and…wait for it…ban all open pit metallic mining activity in the
country (11).
Before the vote, we wondered whether Yaku Pérez would make the frame as a Kingmaker in
round two, always while underscoring how anytime he gets his hands close to the controls of
law or government is bad news for the mining industry. As it happened it was almost even
worse, Pérez seems to have just failed to make it to round but even if we now assume he is
squeezed out of the run-off by Lasso and “The Rules”, we still have Pérez the Super Kingmaker.
He can exact policy changes from Lasso in exchange for his support in round two, Lasso is
willing to do that and the candidate will also need to appease Hervas at the same time. Lasso’s
issue won’t be simply winning the election but having a governable Ecuador afterwards, without
“the jungle” on his side he has no leverage to the Arauz coastal bloc. To illustrate, note that
when protests started getting hot and the indigenous voters supporting Pérez threatened to
descend on Quito and protest, his words were, “I told them, We don’t want conflict, we don’t
want to breach the peace, we don’t want violence”, implying “We might not want it, but if
there’s no other choice later…” (12). The Cuenca referendum (see below) now takes on more
importance, as here is a referendum vote that went 80% 20% and is a resolution supported by
both the people Lasso needs on his side by April 11th.
The bottom line is that the political map has moved enormously in Ecuador in the last seven
days. Sworn enemies are now potential alliance partners, Andrés Arauz’s initial big lead looks
under threat in round two, Yaku Pérez became a major force, Xavier Hervas arrived on the
scene, Guillermo Lasso will have to ditch the neoliberal and move left in order to beat the
Correa dauphin. Mining is not likely to come out well from all this, so you can even forget my
own biogs of the candidates from before the election because Guillermo Lasso may turn into
bad news for the industry before this election is done. As for exposure to this mess, do your
portfolio a favour and drop your Ecuador mining stocks as soon as possible. Even if the best-
case result for mining shows and Arauz wins in round two, the worst that happens is you buy
19

back your position. Meantime, by closing Ecuador exposure you remove several potential stock
killing events from your life and that is always a good idea.
Ecuador: Cuenca votes against mining
This one was easier to predict (13). The referendum question that ran concurrently with the
rest of the Ecuador election in the Cuenca region that asked for the protection of specific local
rivers against mining activity (the back door to its real intentions of closing down all mining in
the region) passed in the way we imaged, with 80.9% approval. The reaction of pro-mining
groups has been to question the scope of the referendum question and state that it doesn’t
apply to projects with concessions that are already underway, a spin on the reality. In fact, it is
now virtually impossible to get past the fact that Cuenca has legal reason to refuse any permit
application that arrives at any time in the future from any mining company that might affect
those five rivers, as long as the respective authority in the local government doesn’t want to
emit said permit. This what Ecuador’s Chamber of Mining fear most, not that future concessions
won’t be granted in Cuenca, but that the vote is a powerful weapon for an anti-mining
government authority. Also, as the wording now has legal precedent the question can be used
(and will be used, be 100% sure on that) by other regions that want to run a referendum on
mining activity in their regions.
Tracking Chile and Peru Covid-19 cases (week five)
Week five in what we trust will be a temporary series, with Covid-19 in Chile and Peru as its
agenda and any affect the virus in those countries might have on the price of copper as its
focus. Via four charts we keep a close eye on potential supply disruption of copper in the
world’s two biggest copper producer countries into an already tight world market. To keep it
standard, we’ll use the charts at the well-regarded Worldometers site for the ongoing track (14)
and each chart also comes with its seven day moving average. Commentary below:
Chile: The chart for new daily infections:
Chile: The chart for daily fatalities:
Peru: The chart for new daily infections:
20

Peru: The chart for daily fatalities:
In Chile, its vaccination program is quickly turning into a outright success. Chile had advantages
coming to the table such as International currency reserves that matter and a country
geography (long and thin) with a largely coastal population that is more easily serviced by
vaccine logistics. However, Chile was also smart, it moved to open early negotiations with
several pharma companies and their vaccines (Russia, China, Pfizer, Astra etc) and secured
contracts quickly, including the first rush order that arrived for Front Line Medical workers
before 2020 had finished. Cut to February 2021 and Chile has over 1.5m of its 19m population
vaccinated, the program continues to roll out, all frontline and vulnerable workers and everyone
over 73 have been covered and along with a surge in testing done alongside the vaccinations,
the country is getting to grips with its Covid-19 issues. All excellent news for Chile, for South
America (others will now follow a winning pattern) and for copper supply in 2021, as supply
crimps from the world’s number one copper producer and exporter are now less likely.
In Peru: We therefore move to the situation in the world’s number two copper producer and
exporter and the symbolic news that, due to a 300% rise in the demand for medicinal oxygen in
Peru, the government of Chile has this weekend offered to help its neighbour with 40 metric
tonnes of oxygen per day. Tone set, read on:
Peru is running over 8,000 new infections per day, which severely under-reports reality. It’s
now seeing an average death toll of over 200 per day, a better yardstick to gauge the level of
the second wave outbreak (get sick and better alone, but you cannot hide a death from your
friends, family or employer) and deaths are running 3X those of Chile this weekend. Peru also
had a bizarre Covid-19 story break that requires comment here, as it caused the resignation of
the current Health Minister. It began midweek when a local TV chatshow host and polemicist
revealed that ex-President Martín Vizcarra was vaccinated against Covid-19 in October. Once
ex-Prez Vizcarra confirmed that he had indeed taken part in the Sinopharm vaccine test
program last year, criticism rained down on him and his cabinet team for exposing the Head of
State to unnecessary risk (quite right, too, Vizcarra’s decision to get the vaccination was
irresponsible to the point of mad). Current Health Minister Pilar Mazetti had been doing a good
job under impossible circumstances, but when the worst parliament in South America got hold
of the item against the ex-President they hate, they went on the attack and blamed her for
Vizcarra’s vaccination even though she had nothing to do with the decision and had no
21

knowledge Vizcarra had joined the test program. Mazetti, weary from several skirmishes already
with the elected idiots, decided enough was enough and resigned even while Peru’s second
700,000 batch of Sinopharm vaccine was flying across the Pacific. Then another twist this
weekend, when the people who organized the Sinopharm test program in Peru in October
stated that ex-President Vizcarra was not one of the 12,000 volunteers in the Chinese vaccine
test program. The weirdness is likely to continue until we find out where he got his dosage from
(more than a few hints of favouritism and pulling strings on show, pulling Vizcarra’s flame of
popularity even lower).
In more serious Peru news, to give a better idea of the macro Friday saw the Central Bank
(BCRP) announce it expected to revise its 2021 GDP forecast lower. Current estimates are -
11.5% for 2020, then +11.5% for this year and a mirror image rebound, which from a simple
smell-test seemed optimistic. However, Second Wave is now an obvious disruption and the
current lockdown was extended to nobody’s surprise last, the 15 days of February restriction
now covering all 28 (and more measures are likely). Here’s a quote from the BCRP report: “The
large increase in cases we have seen in the last weeks certainly imply a revision of the GDP
growth projection for this year”, quote/unquote Adrián Armas, head of the Central Bank studies
group. By way of reply, the Central Bank is moving ahead with plans to offer cheap credit lines
to indebted Peruvian companies in their “Reactivate Peru” plan, with U$15.8Bn recently raised
in bonds offerings earmarked along with the interim and eventually the new government as
from mid-year). Also last week, to nobody’s surprise the BCRP kept base lending rates at the
current historic low of 0.25%.
Bottom line: We will continue with this Chile/Peru monitor on Covid-19’s effect on copper supply
for a few more weeks, despite the clear improvement in Chile’s lot. Peru’s situation is still
volatile and the country continues to be vulnerable to a widespread surge. Its 14 day
quarantine was extended to 28 last week to nobody’s surprise, with some zones entering the
highest level of lockdown for the first time. One look at the streets is enough to know Peruvians
are not adhering to the lockdown closely, also it won’t come as a shock to hear that the poorest
socioeconomic zones are where government lockdown directives are most often ignored. With
contracts for 47m doses of vaccines set to arrive in 2021, the widespread vaccination campaign
cannot start too soon in Peru.
Takeaways from the Mexico Mining Forum 2021
Last week’s Mexico Mining Forum 2021 came and went, your author tuned in for the main
segments and a couple of specific presentations, here come five thoughts arising from personal
experience and reading third party reports on the virtual event.
 It was a pay-for event, but it was easy to find a complimentary entry just by asking
around (IR desks, friends in low places, etc). With “virtual conference season” nearly
upon us, many events timed before, during and after PDAC (March 8th onward), those
of you being offered tickets for events at dollar prices may want to ask around as well.
 Regarding content, the Secretary of the Economy (FinMin) Tatiana Clouthier, as
minister directly in charge of mining since the AMLO government dissolved the
dedicated sub-secretary, congratulated the mining industry on its ongoing efforts by
throwing a few statistical flowers, and then whacked them for not paying enough taxes.
She also told them they had to look after “the big house” better, i.e. the environment
and planet. Her speech went down like a lead balloon.
 The head of Mexico’s Chamber of Mining CAMIMEX spent his time complaining that
mining companies paid too much tax. He also warned on government initiatives that
would severely increase the costs of doing mining in Mexico, with specific mention of
the law project to restrict 3rd party sub-contracting of workforces, the law project to
change how royalties are levied on mining companies, and also the AMLO electricity
sector reform plans, which were unveiled early this month and have been widely
criticized by all sides (not just mining or even industry).
22

Above all, anyone who paid to watch the private sector bickering with the public sector would
feel as thought they wasted their money on this forum, the most notable takeaway is the
distance between the government and mining’s private sector. There’s not much open warfare
between the two side yet, but thoughts did return to the ongoing spat we highlighted last week
between First Majestic and the State over its tax obligations. A few months of “no news is good
news” would suit Mexico’s mining companies, a new burst of resource nationalism in the air is
always in the cards with AMLO.
Chile: Codelco invests
We are all Keynesian now and around the world, governments are rolling out plans to stimulate
local economies via public level civil works. In Chile, part of the move runs through State owned
Codelco which last week unveiled its latest expansion contract for a major asset (15). Spanish
civil works and energy company Acciona was announced the winner of the U$200m contract for
the underground expansion at Chuquicamata, a 3.5 year works that will employ up to 1,000
workers during construction phase.
Peru Presidential election: Two months to go and an IPSOS poll
This Sunday morning February 14th, Peru’s standard bearer pollster IPSOS published its latest
voter intention poll for the April 11th Presidential election. Here are the main numbers:
 George Forsyth 11%
 Yonhy Lescano 10%
 Keiko Fujimori 8%
 Verónika Mendoza 8 %
 Daniel Urresti 7%
 Hernando de Soto 4%,
 Julio Guzmán 4%
 César Acuña 3%
 Rafael López 3%
 Daniel Salaverry 3%
Notes:
 The upstart candidate from Lima, George Forsyth, had a bad week, mainly because his
candidacy has been thrown out by the Peru electoral body for misrepresenting his
income in previous years in his application for candidacy. He has the right to appeal but
it’s now 50/50 at best that he get on the ballot at all, this is the same route the Peru
authorities used to throw out the 2016 early frontrunner, Julio Guzmán. His voter
intention has dropped hard, too, from a previous IPSOS poll’s 17% to today’s 11%,
with the main loss in support from young voters who got enthusiastic about seeing
somebody their own age, but have started to walk away.
 The surprise in this weekend’s poll is Yonhy (pronounced ‘Johnny’) Lescano, a career
politico who has been making a slow but steady climb in the polls. His arrival in second
place is more commentary of the dearth of quality in the field, Peruvians are already
starting to look for “the least worst”. A Lescano win would be a sad commentary on
Peru’s political outlook, not least for the lingering sex scandals around the man from a
few years ago.
 Then come the field, with Keiko Fujimori tied for 3rd but in a separate part of the IPSOS
survey, it becomes clear how bad her chances are as, if she got to the second round,
she would be beaten by all other candidates and has a ceiling vote of just 23%.
 Verónika Mendoza must have enjoyed the news that George Forsyth was barred from
running, her 2016 campaign was notable for the late surge in popularity she enjoyed in
the Lim/Callao conurbation and to date, she has been concentrating on securing
provincial votes. Also true for the right wing populist Lima candidate Daniel Urrestí and
the name best known by people outside Peru, the economist Hernando de Soto (who
23

has failed to gain traction so far, but also has that “least worst” look about him).
The bottom line: Less than two months to go and the Peru presidential election is fracturing
into tiny pieces, that’s evident to anyone with a semblance of math in their head, seeing a
“frontrunner” for a key South American presidential election (for mining and the region) is
testament to the shaky ground. We are going to get an intense fight between the candidates
for the top two places and a lot now depends on whether Forsyth’s appeal is successful. Even
after Lescano’s rise it would be a shock to see him get to round two, meanwhile the field seems
to be opening well for the left wing Veronika Mendoza. With two months to go, it’s impossible
to call the likely top two, let alone the eventual winner, but I am now a little concerned that
Mendoza may cause a temporary shock to Peru exposed companies. This isn’t actionable yet,
but it’s one to watch closely in the next two months.
Market Watching
Dominican Republic: Minister Almonte curbs enthusiasm
The combination of factors now mixed into the Dominican Republic mining sector, rather than a
wholesale dismantling of the long case of GoldQuest (GQC.v), is the motive behind this note
which is aimed more at general strategy than specific stock picking. We begin with the case of
Dom Rep’s most advanced exploreco and as the chart suggests GQC is one of those “tendency
toward volatility” stocks, the five year chart
showing how the project went cold through lack
of permitting, then dormant through and after
the Covid Crash, finally waking up in July last
year when the Luis Abinader campaign became
his government (August). Luis Abinader is pro
USA, his government is pro-business and makes
all the right noises on its macro economy for
Western appetites, Barrick (GOLD) has already
got it deal on permitting around Pueblo Viejo in
exchange for the forward payments it made last
year. In brief, it was not a surprise to see his
government start full-court push on mining to
start the New Year, the initiative was centred
around a visit and renewed close government interest in the Romero project owned by
GoldQuest (GQC.v). That got the share price moving again from the 25c-20c range back to the
35c-40c range (without busting to the upside).
At the time, GQC made the most of the visit in its marketing and mining’s social media echo
chamber soon had GQC on the cusp of production, permits all-but awarded already. Meanwhile
this desk winced, because the ongoing social issues around Romero weren’t about to disappear
with a new government. A little of the colder reality began to manifest last week when Dom
Rep’s Minister of Energy and Mining, Antonio Almonte, appeared on a TV interview show to
explain further about the government’s position (16). His stance was he (translated)
“…recognized a problem exists in that many communities around mining zones haven’t been
sufficiently remunerated in any direct way”. The government was now working to guarantee
those communities benefit direct from the wealth generation of mining operations.
In so many words, he went to Romero and on talking with the locals, heard that they would not
give any sort of social license to the project under current circumstances and is now looking for
ways to get them to yes. But the basic issue at GQC’s project is not money, it’s geography and
the two rivers that run below the mine project site which provide much of the region’s drinking
water. Agreed that an improved financial compensation package may help, but the issue goes
deeper and Almonte knows it, as in the interview he also “…assured (questioners) that the
government also has to take into consideration the reactions and positions of social groups and
communities located around the mining companies. He said that mining in most countries has
24

fundamentals both in favour and against the activity, but in all cases dialogue should be the
way to find solutions.”
To sell mining and create real growth, Dom Rep “needs a win” in the sector and it doesn’t have
many advanced projects from which to find one. GQC at Romero is by far the most advanced,
but then its Neita (Unigold, refractory) and then we’re back to Precipitate Gold (PRG.v) in its JV
or at its 100% owned Portón project. It was unsurprising to see the quick promote by the
Abinader government on Romero and, while the site visit and rhetoric may have caused a stock
price lift, the interaction also provided the national government with perspective on the real
problems they need solve before any mining takes place. It wouldn’t surprise this desk to see
Dom Rep cooling slightly on Romero so, if PRG can return something significant at Portón, it
could provide the country with a more acceptable champion for its next mine.
Vizsla Silver (VZLA.v) insiders cash out
One of the nastiest pumps of the last year, Vizlsa Resources (VZLA.v) last week changed its
name to Vizsla Silver (17) and caused much merriment among market watchers while doing so.
But while that was going we got a more important signal, as CEO Michael Konnert and VP
Exploration Charles Funk decided they wanted to own dollars instead of shares of their own
company:
 On February 4th VZLA VP Exploration Charles Funk cashed in 400,000 options at 17c,
325,000 options at 69c and 150,000 options at 79c. He added another 301,600 fully
paid up shares he already owned and sold them all at an average price of C$1.6157.
His outlay to exercise the derivates was C$410,750, his gross proceeds from the sale
C$1.901m
 On February 4th VZLA President, CEO and director, Michael Konnert, exercised 550,000
warrants priced at 17c. Then on the 5th he sold 529,000 shares for gross proceeds of
C$2.111m. As the exercising cost C$93,500 and he’ll have a few costs on top, the plan
seems to have been to walk away with C$2m net profit.
Even if this were a normal company with reasonable exploration goals and potential, that type
of wholesale cashing out would be a yellow flag. At a company like VZLA, dedicated to
aggressively promoting a silver project in Mexico with marginal economics, the colour is red.
Conclusion
IKN612 is done, we end with bullet points:
 Be long copper. As for our four idea, they all look good this weekend, as even the
unpleasantly dilutive financing at Excelsior can’t take enough value away from the
trade. Copper Mountain’s quarter is up Tuesday and we expect great things, while both
TMQ and ECU.v are now re-rating for their own reasons.
 Avoid Ecuador. The mini Basket Case has out-done itself this time and the mining
industry now has the look of a convenient piñata, whoever get to round two can whack
away in order to bat Arauz.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Mark
25

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/02/10/2173577/0/en/Excelsior-Mining-Announces-C-20-Million-
Bought-Deal-Financing.html
(2) https://www.cumtn.com/investors/press-releases/2021/copper-mountain-mining-fourth-quarter-and-full-yea-2119/
(3) https://trilogymetals.com/news/2021/trilogy-metals-reports-fiscal-2020-year-end-results
(4) https://trilogymetals.com/news/2021/trilogy-approves-entering-into-development-funding-agreement-with-the-alaska-
industrial-development-and-export-authority
(5) https://www.reuters.com/article/global-metals-idUSL1N2KH0YD
(6) https://secureservercdn.net/166.62.107.20/l1z.0c1.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/C3-Metals-First-
Tranche-Closing-Press-Release-February-12-2021-final.pdf
(7) https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/2944657/AAD3A8F20AE863E13FB8D8C1DBA5EECD
(8) https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ecuador-election-
idUSKBN2AD00N?taid=6027605df3d3490001c4456c&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=t
rueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
(9) https://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/cne-votos-recuento-provincias-ecuador.html
(10) https://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/lasso-perez-disputa-segunda-vuelta.html
(11) https://www.primicias.ec/noticias/politica/presidenciables-inversion-privada-sectores-estrategicos/
(12) https://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/revision-actas-inconsistencias-guayas-balotaje.html
(13) https://www.primicias.ec/noticias/economia/mineria-cuenca-plebiscito-ecuador-alcance/
(14) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/peru/
(15) https://www.eleconomista.es/empresas-finanzas/noticias/11046229/02/21/Acciona-gana-un-contrato-minero-de-
165-millones-en-Chile.html
(16) https://www.eldinero.com.do/136646/almonte-gobierno-apoya-explotacion-minera-que-beneficie-comunidades/
(17) https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/2643-tsx-venture/vzla/92760-vizsla-
resources-to-change-its-name-to-vizsla-silver-corp.html
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
26

Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
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Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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