IKN #603Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 603, December 13th 2020
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, Reiterating last week’s Strong Buy call from a better frame of
mind, Week two (of three) for Basket Case ideas, Final reminder on the 2021 fundraiser for
David Bhadreshwar.
Fundamental Analysis: Considering Fiore Gold (F.v) risk/opportunity.
Stocks to Follow: Mene Inc (MENE.v), Excelsior Mining (MIN.to), Trilogy Metals (TMQ),
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to), Royal Road Minerals (RYR.v), New Gold (NGD), Minera IRL
(MIRL.cse), Great Bear Resources (GBR.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Oroco Resources (OCO.v), Chibougamau Independent Mines Inc.
(CBG.v), Capstone Mining (CS.to).
Producer Basket: Overview.
Tiny Dogs: Overview.
Regional Politics: Your brief Covid-19 regional update, EY and “Ten Risks for Mining in 2021”,
Chile plans copper refinery investment, Colombia rolls out a smart pro-mining plan, Argentina:
The Chubut vote is delayed (and law project modified), Ecuador: Alvaro Noboa muddies the
field, Peru: Early voter intention for the 2021 Presidential election.
Market Watching: Mantaro Silver raises its QT, Chesapeake Gold (CGK.v) tries to rouse a
monster.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
“
In today’s edition
 There are repeated messages in today’s intro: We repeat our Strong Buy view of
today’s macro for mining companies. We again call for your ideas and thoughts for the
baskets. We offer a second and final nudge for the fundraiser for David Bhadreshwar
and his logistically impressive church that has helped many people in Peru, often thanks
to you the readership of The IKN Weekly.
 Fiore Gold (F.v) has been lagging recently, and lagging peers is either a warning or an
opportunity. Today’s main fundies section does some numbering and points us to the
latter, this stock is still cheap at gold prices U$42/oz below the Friday PM fix.
 The most intriguing news of the week in the wonderful world of junior mining, we
consider Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v) in light of the change at the top and what that
change is bringing (or wants to bring). What it is and what it all might (or not) mean in
today’s ‘Market Watching’.
 The copper space took a breather last week, as although spot prices finished at the
impressive U$3.50/lb line we saw profit-taking in several copper-related spheres.
Today’s Copper Basket argues that we’re nowhere near finished on that run and “buy
the dips” is the mantra until further notice.
1

 Regional Politics is also a reminder of how, when it comes to the LatAm mining sector,
Chile is number one and it’s not even close for second.
Reiterating last week’s Strong Buy call from a better frame of mind
My timing is off once again, the “STRONG BUY” intro piece of IKN602 last Sunday met by a
week of profit-taking. Annoying yes, but of little importance as the strategy is not about picking
the exact day of the lows, we are positioning for the strength in metals in 2021. The metals
market continues in the eye of a near-perfect storm for prices, the US Dollar may show near-
term strength against the GBP/Euro for their trade talk reasons but that doesn’t mean it has
suddenly stopped racing to the bottom itself.
What we did see, however, was more insto weakness in GLD than I anticipated last week:
7.60 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2020 to date
7.40
7.20
7.00
6.80
6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80
5.60
2
2/1 21/1 22/1 1/2 11/2 12/2 2/3 21/3 22/3 1/4 11/4 12/4 1/5 11/5 12/5 13/5 01/6 02/6 03/6 01/7 02/7 03/7 9/8 91/8 92/8 8/9 81/9 82/9 8/01 81/01 82/01 7/11 71/11 72/11 7/21
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
GLD gold holdings, 2020 to date (metric tonnes)
1300
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
02/1/2 02/1/21 02/1/22 02/2/1 02/2/11 02/2/12 02/3/2 02/3/21 02/3/22 02/4/1 02/4/11 02/4/12 02/5/1 02/5/11 02/5/12 02/5/13 02/6/01 02/6/02 02/6/03 02/7/01 02/7/02 02/7/03 02/8/9 02/8/91 02/8/92 02/9/8 02/9/81 02/9/82 02/01/8 02/01/81 02/01/82 02/11/7 02/11/71 02/11/72
mt
source: SPDR GLD data
I’m annoyed at myself for falling into the ego trap of trying to predict the next seven days when
it hardly matters to the underlying investment strategy. Done it too often in recent intros, e.g.
my words of IKN602 last weekend, “Expect to see GLD holdings increase this time next
weekend, and the ratio number back over 7X”. A world too cocky for the precious metals
market and a little public auto-flagellation is the least I deserve. My focus has been off kilter,
what matters is the substance not the style, the direction and not any exact time of arrival.
Gold has made a healthy consolidation move and buyers are buying the 18 handle even as
broad markets soar higher. When the world’s best insurance policy against financial turmoil also
supports higher mining equity prices, these notoriously volatile stocks suddenly become prime
buy and hold opportunities. As the bull market develops, it won’t just be people like me with a
default 12-month vision toward investments that start looking further out and the bigger wins
that come from a dose of HODL (to borrow from the crypto guys).
Week two (of three) for Basket Case ideas
The annual request for basket stock ideas began last week, you’ll see it next weekend in
IKN605 as well. Your author meekly requests suggestions for the 2021 versions of The Copper
Basket, Producer Basket and The Tiny Dogs baskets. My long list has already seen new
suggestions from the floor, including two that are better than my ideas and that will be

included. But it’s not too late and we’re still open for suggestions, so here are the criteria
repeated from last week:
 For The Copper Basket: We look for a group of 15 stocks that as a whole represent the
junior copper mining world. The maximum market cap is $1Bn, but preferably I like
them a lot lower to better reflect our sector of interest. We welcome tinycaps, as a
cross section is required. As we’re not trying to beat the street and want a faithful
reflection of the sector, always happy to include bad copper companies or dog stocks if
they bring something to the table.
 For The Producer Basket: There is no upper limit in market cap size, but we do require
a minimum market cap of U$2Bn. For this list, I’m looking for suggestions for precious
metals producers that will out-perform in 2020, because a minor game is also to try
and beat the GDX benchmark on the year.
 For The Tiny Dogs: The main criterion is a maximum market cp of $20m, as we want to
reflect the market of the smallest companies. However, at this level of market cap there
are many broken stocks and dead companies with projects going nowhere; They are
not interesting, as although we cannot expect operational or managerial perfection at
this level, the company still needs to “have a pulse” and be a reasonable trade or
speculative alternative.
With luck, I’ll get to change between three and five companies on each list, so if your candidate
stocks are better than mine, fell free to drop me a line. Thanks in advance.
Final reminder on the 2021 fundraiser for David Bhadreshwar
Thank you to all who contributed to the fundraiser as featured in IKN602, last weekend. As
noted in the piece last time, the objectives are less about emergency supplies this year and
more about making a festive holiday season for people who have had a tough 2020, as such
the plans are more modest and the good news is that due to your kind donations, David has
nearly covered everything in his plans. If you’d like to help cover the last cash gap, details on
how to contribute are in the intro to last week’s edition, IKN602. No need to beg too hard and
put the contact details in front of you today and all contributions to this great cause (that sees
all the money getting to the people that matter), even small amounts, are most welcome.
Thank you in anticipation.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Considering Fiore Gold (F.v) risk/opportunity
This desk has also noticed the recent underperformance in Fiore Gold (F.v):
3

After an excellent run and out-performance in 2020, part of which we managed to grab along
the way, our small and impressively run gold producer Fiore Gold (F.v) has suddenly gone out
of fashion. In the last ten days F.v is down against bullion, only keeping pace with the much
larger GDX benchmark and that is my idea of under-performance in this environment. A small,
debt-free, expanding and profitable gold miner is exactly the right package and should out-
perform the metal, instead we can dial back the market-perform-at-best look around F.v for a
quarter and this weekend, the stock is over 20% down on its mid-September peaks.
The last time we looked carefully at CEO Tim Warman’s charge was in IKN596 dated October
25th, the edition in which we considered the latest production numbers out of Fiore and
reiterated our liking for the stock. Gold grade has remained steady and recent pre-strip work
should help maintain the level, while this open pit heap-leacher is now “running on rails” in the
way we like them. Here are a couple of the charts in IKN596 that help underscore our firm
belief that on the production side, Fiore Gold has turned into a reliable operator that is
executing to plan in fine style:
That day, we reiterated our $2.00 price target and confidence in the stock, but since then it’s
19c down. The final mini-slide of last week made up my mind, it was time to revisit the F.v
model and get a better handle on its current price performance. For that, we consider the
current state of play at F.v and what we can expect from it in 2021 operationally, much along
the lines of our normal way but today and with Fiore, extra attention goes on its leverage to
gold price. We begin with gold production and sales, here we’re K.I.S.S. with just sales and our
first assumption is F.v produces 50,000 oz gold in the calendar year to come. Here are gold
sales per quarter, including the blanket assumption of 12,500 oz/qtr from Pan going forward.
F.v: Gold sales, per quarter
4
8383
7646
3768 48501 4698 4479 73701 40511 9009 3909 62021 16721 55421 00521 00521 00521 00521 00521
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
71_pes 71_ced 81_ram 81_nuj 81_pes 81_ced 91_ram 91_nuj 91_pes 91_ced 02_ram 02_nuj 02_pes tse02_ced tse12_ram tse12_nuj tse12_pes tse12_ced
F.v: Gold ore grade mined
Oz Au
source: company filings
This year F.v kept to its 45k to 48k guidance for calendar year 2020, even though the first three
calendar quarters all came in over 12k. The caution in a Covid-19 environment is
understandable, but for FY21 and with the crusher circuit now installed and fully operational,
there’s less reason to pitch as low. As F.v currently runs its mine op at 14,000tpd, the straight
math indicates 50,000 oz production is clearly achievable (at 0.5 g/t Au, a modest recovery rate
is all you need).
That’s one side of the basic ops model, the other is costs and at F.v, recent results also
04.0 04.0 04.0 44.0 05.0 05.0 74.0 44.0 04.0 74.0 05.0 05.0 74.0
0.55
0.50
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30 0.25 0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
71_pes 71_ced 81_ram 81_nuj 81_pes 81_ced 91_ram 91_nuj 91_pes 91_ced 02_ram 02_nuj 02_pes
g/t Au F.v: Tonnages mined
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0 1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
source: company filings
71_pes 71_ced 81_ram 81_nuj 81_pes 81_ced 91_ram 91_nuj 91_pes 91_ced 02_ram 02_nuj 02_pes
mt/qtr waste mined
ore mined
source: company filings

demonstrate predictability. We’ve been guided for a spike in mine site costs in the last quarter
due mostly to non-recurring costs (e.g. the
pre-strip), however we need to admit the
near-inevitable cost creep on visual display.
We add in house estimates for the
September 2020 quarter (Fiore’s year-end)
and make reasonable upward adjustment for
today’s updated 12 month model (see
below), erring to the conservative side as is
our normal wont.
However, let’s not overplay the cost creep,
F.v is profitable as the last two years amply
demonstrate (chart also from IKN596).
F.v: Earnings
5
880.0
467.0
599.1
364.0
8.0-
985.0
988.2
631.5
4.4
F.v: Costs breakdown
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
$m
10
9 Income from mine ops
8 pre-tax earnings
7 net earnings
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2 source: F filings
sep_18 dec_18 mar_19 jun_19 sep-19 dec-19 mar_20 jun_20sep_20est
The question is “how profitable”? To date the company has exceeded expectations and that’s
allowed faster capital spend at Gold Rock, as the company aims its profits toward organic
growth. That is of course one of the principal reasons this investor/author came on board, the
formula of investment into the project pipeline is one of the most effective for the retail
shareholder (we’ve seen it work at Wesdome, Fiore is on the way, next up Minera Alamos). A
better line on what we can expect in FY21 is what is required, starting here:
Fiore Gold at Pan: Projected 2021 revs and MOI (U$m)
Gold (U$/oz) $1,500 $1,800 $2,000 $2,200
Prod. gold (Oz) 50,024 50,024 50,024 50,024
U$/oz $1,500 $1,800 $2,000 $2,200
gold revs (U$m) $75.04 $90.04 $100.05 $110.05
Op costs $44.00 $44.00 $44.00 $44.00
other $33.31 $36.07 $37.91 $39.75
Op. income -$2.27 $9.98 $18.14 $26.30
Sources: F data, IKN calcs and estimates
We begin by assuming our 50k annual production at Pan (the model spits out 50,024 oz, so I
went with it instead of manually adjusting; twenty-four ounces of gold isn’t very much right up
to the moment it’s in your hand). The other lines in this chart offer the different gold prices,
assumed costs and comes to an estimate for operating income. Before continuing, the house
model splits operating costs and “other” in a different way to that of F.v in its filings, which is
why you have two large-sized cost items (e.g. we put G&A and DD&A in “other”, at F.v it goes
in Mine Op Costs). It works out the same, either way. Here’s our condensed income statement
model for the four different gold prices:
71_nuj 71_pes 71_ced 81_ram 81_nuj 81_pes 81_ced 91_ram 91_nuj 91-pes 91-ced 02_ram 02_nuj tse02_pes
$m
deplet/amort
royalties
prod. costs
source: company filings,IKN ests

Fiore Gold at Pan: Condensed Income statement model (U$m)
Gold price/oz $1,500 $1,800 $2,000 $2,200
Sales (U$m) 75.0 90.0 100.0 110.1
COGS 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0
TC/RC 11.3 13.5 15.0 16.5
DD&A 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
SGA 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
NSR/Royalties 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.7
Op income (2.3) 10.0 18.1 26.3
Tax (0.6) 2.8 5.1 7.4
Net income (1.6) 7.2 13.1 18.9
Shares out 98 98 98 98
EPS -0.02 0.07 0.13 0.19
Sust. Capex 1 1 1 1
FCF 0.08 0.17 0.22 0.28
Sources: F.v data, IKN calcs & estimates
At our preferred U$2,000/oz price model for 2021, the Pan mine provides U$18.1m of operating
income. That’s the number that matters more than bottom line net profits, as the company will
invest rather than bank its cash flow.
However, before we continue toward a price target, the above results table is interesting for
more than one reason. What also stands out is the U$1,500/oz base case price assumption,
because we’re now in a different place costs-wise than we were a year or two ago and at
U$1,500/oz gold, Fiore no longer makes a profit on its operations. Here is an explanation for
the recent price weakness, as Fiore’s current period of market-performer-at-best dates back to
when gold failed to hold $2k. Unlike others, Fiore’s breakeven gold numbers is relatively high
and that is our double-edged sword, we should pay more attention to what happens to Fiore at
other gold prices for 2021
Returning for one moment to the standard model and our preferred U$2,000/oz price deck for
gold in 2021. With other main non-cash items backed out, the above 22c/share cash flow from
the mine allows a target price box like this:
Sales and earnings Target price & valuation data for F.v based on
Year 1.5kAu 1.8kAu 2.0kAu 2.2kAu year 2021 and U$2,000/oz gold
Sales (U$m) 64 77 85 94 12-month target $2.16 based on 8x FCF
Sales growth 20% 11% 10% Upside to target 50% and house forex (1.2/1)
EPS -0.02 0.07 0.13 0.19 Mkt cap (CAD$m) $141 Enterprise value $153
FCF 0.08 0.17 0.22 0.28 P/sales (1.5k Au) 1.84 EV/sales (1.5k Au) 2.00
P/E (1.5k Au) -86.4 EV/EBITDA (1.5k Au) 26.8
P/E (1.8k Au) 19.7 EV/EBITDA (1.8k Au) 8.5
P/E (2.0k Au) 10.8 EV/EBITDA (2.0k Au) 5.9
In this update, please note I have dropped the free cash flow (FCF) multiple from the previous
10Z to 8X, as after consideration, that better reflects how the market is currently pricing the
stock. The fact that’s way too low is another story and one likely to change next year, but for
pricing and target purposes it’s more realistic. All the same, it generates a price target of
C$2.16, representing a 12 month upside of 50% to this weekend’s C$1.44.
As for the variants mentioned above, after due consideration I put this chart together:
6

C$ Fiore Gold (F.v): Target Price variances on gold price and FCF
5.00
multiple awards
4.50
4.10
4.00
3.89
8x 3.67
3.50 10x 3.46 3.42
3.24 3.24
3.00 12x 3.02 3.06
2.81 2.88
2.50 2.59 2.52 2.70
2.38 2.34 $2.16 2.30
2.16 2.16
2.00 1.73 1.94 1.80 $1.98 1.73 1.87 2.02
1.50 1.51 1.44 1.62 1.44 1.58
1.26 1.30
1.00 1.08 1.01 1.15
0.90 0.87
0.50
0.00
1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
source: F.v data,IKN calcs and ests Gold Price (U$/oz)
Fairly straightforward data dump, you have the following:
 An X-axis of average gold price, from U$1,500/oz to U$2,200/oz
 A Y-axis of Fiore Gold (F.v) 12 month price targets
 Three extrapolations of price targets, using respective 8X, 10X and 12X multiples to
annual company free cash flow from Pan
If we consider chart details, the model generates a price target of C$1.44 using U$1,750/oz
gold and an 8X multiple to earnings. That fits with what we see today, a stock at that exact
same price and a low multiple awarded by the market. Logically therefore, a U$2,000/oz gold
price would move F.v up along the red line to our target value of $2.16.
Alternatively, as I believe Fiore is still being undervalued by this market, a higher multiple is
enough to move the stock target to C$1.98 with gold as low as U$1,800/oz. Between these two
price target lay the most likely variables that will price Fiore this year, but one lesson we can
take away is that gold’s recent bottoming out really suits this stock. Here’s data of the above
chart in table form: The U$50/oz increments in gold price are granular enough in my opinion,
the lower and upper limits good for purpose.
F.v target price variables tabled (C$)
Gold Free Cash Flow Multiple
U$/oz 8x 10x 12x
1500 0.72 0.90 1.08
1550 0.87 1.08 1.30
1600 1.01 1.26 1.51
1650 1.15 1.44 1.73
1700 1.30 1.62 1.94
1750 1.44 1.80 2.16
1800 1.58 $1.98 2.38
1850 1.73 2.16 2.59
1900 1.87 2.34 2.81
1950 2.02 2.52 3.02
2000 $2.16 2.70 3.24
2050 2.30 2.88 3.46
2100 2.45 3.06 3.67
2150 2.59 3.24 3.89
2200 2.74 3.42 4.10
source: IKN calcs from F.v data
7

This helps explains why I am happy to stay at the current $2.00 price target at present. If
things go to plan, gold rises in price and F.v is awarded a better multiple, but only one of those
needs to happen to get Fiore Gold’s price to $2.00 (or above).
Gold stays at U$1,800? Fiore’s continued delivery and growth will give it a 10X soon enough.
The market refuses to award the mining sector? Gold only needs to continue its course and
Fiore goes to $2.00 on its own.
However, the hint is obvious as to the upside still left in this stock. There is the C$2.70 result
box that combines the stated house forecast of U$2,000/oz gold by mid-2021, plus the 10X
multiple Fiore deserves as Pan continues to deliver and Gold Rock starts to grow and take more
of a leading role. Until a target is pinged there’s no need to revisit too carefully, but once F.v
reaches C$2.00 there start point for any target upgrade is clear.
The bottom line to Fiore Gold (F.v) today is that the recent softness in gold has created a
buying opportunity. Yes indeed, that classic newsletter writer’s cliché line which sits along side
“liked it at $1.60? You’ll love it at $1.40!” but in this case please don’t roll your eyes, the cliché
fits too closely to ignore. Assuming Pan’s strong and steady state production continues as per,
even with reasonable cost creep Fiore’s model exudes strength at gold prices of U$1,800/oz
and North. There’s even enough free cash flow to keep F.v’s share price around $1.00 equity
price if gold drops to U$1,500/oz, the price we paid for our shares, though the way operating
profits disappear at that level also tell you that leverage is also an issue and indeed, the main
double-edged sword at the company. Today’s F.v is undervalued on its fundamentals at $1.44
and therefore a buy, but it’s real attraction is the fast upside it can deliver at the current gold
price deck. At U$1,800/oz, Fiore Gold shares are in the sweet spot for Beta and should react
first and faster than peers if gold continues its recovery toward the U$1,900/oz line in the days
and weeks to come. In this approximate two hundred dollar per ounce window for gold, Fiore is
a prime speculative for traders of all types, as well as an investment holding for the likes of me.
With downside protected (by the theoretical model at least) until U$1,500/oz, there’s plenty of
backbone to the F.v share price this weekend and we don’t even need surprises to the upside,
simple and correct execution at current prices sends this stock higher.
Stocks to Follow
On the week, GDXJ dropped by 1.1%, GDX by 0.7% and our list of 16 names saw just five
winners (MAI.v, NGD, MIN.to, TORO.v, MENE.v) and eleven losers (not listing them all), but it
wasn’t as bad as that. Most of the losers were small and only one passed the 10% barrier
(RYR.v down 12.9%). Meanwhile to the upside MENE.v started its formal coverage at the
Weekly in positive style (MENE.v up 18.0%) and for my money, the 6.9% recovery seen in NGD
into such headwinds was also healthy action.
As you will no doubt notice, there is a cosmetic change to the table as from this week. The
shorts positioning section has been redundant for a long time, therefore I take the opportunity
to use its space for the new trade in Mene Inc (MENE.v) which gets clearly labelled as “non-
mining” in order to annoy as few people as possible. TBH I’m still somewhat uncomfortable
about covering what is essentially a retail stock in The IKN Weekly, but the opportunity this
company affords is too compelling to ignore. Below is the proposed solution, feedback
welcomed because you may have a better idea.
We now have 16 open positions in the Stocks to Follow list and until we sell another it’s staying
like that, even though we are one over the normal limit. Eleven are in the green, two are UNCH
on their cost averages, three are in the red.
8

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.67 219.0% New $1.14 tgt Aug'20 #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.85 2.4% $1.58 tgt, bot again Nov'20
Recommended stocks (In order of preference)
Fiore Gold F.v STR BUY C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.44 46.9% $2.00 target, small growth PM
New Gold NGD STR BUY U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.16 184.2% 3q20 tgt $2.80 confirmed
Norsemont Mining NOM.cse STR BUY C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.95 -38.7% Add 3rd time, for 2021 run
Great Bear Res GBR.v STR BUY C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$16.23 2.5% M&A major tgt, added IKN590
Trilogy Metals TMQ STR BUY U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.84 0.0% Added Dec'20, Cu for 2021
Excelsior Mining MIN.to STR BUY C$0.98 10-Mar-19 C$1.06 8.2% Added again Dec'20, Cu'21
Copper Mountain CMMC.to STR BUY C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$1.54 10.0% Added Dec'20, trade for FY21
Royal Road Min. RYR.v spec buy C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.27 74.2% Good progress in Nica
Orezone ORE.v BUY C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$0.89 12.7% Now in news period, trade buy
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse spec buy C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.01 21.1% new Peru Ag jr w/good plan
Aurelius Res AUL.v spec buy C$0.075 28-Jun-20 C$0.055 -26.7% 1st assays promising, spec buy
Pucara Gold TORO.v wait to add C$0.80 4-Oct-20 C$0.80 0.0% Will add at under 65c
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.16 -17.9% hold until further news
Long-term non-mining hold
Mene Inc. MENE.v LT Hold C$0.65 6-Dec-20 C$0.72 10.8% LT bet on jockey&horse.Will add
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for some notes on our covered stocks:
Mene Inc (MENE.v): Position opened. It would have been silly not to have bought at least
an opening position, which is what happened. I didn’t buy many, because MENE has butted in
9

on my original funds deployment plans for December by returning its turn-the-corner quarter
earlier than expected. So most of last week’s purchases were copper coloured, there will be
plenty of time to add to this position over the months ahead. It was also encouraging to see the
stock trade steadily higher all week, even though it means I pay up slightly.
The reception last week was positive too, up 18.0% on good buying action.
This YTD chart is included as it shows the difference in action and reaction compared to Q2.
Back then there was a big anticipatory move higher and plenty of buyers, enough that IIROC
asked MENE.v to publish a NR of the “…is not aware of any material, undisclosed corporate
developments and has no material change…” variety. Then came the 2q20 numbers at the
peak, then the re-trace as reality didn’t live up to expectation that quarter. But now check out
the 3q20 reporting period, this time the publication caused buyers rather than sellers.
I’d suspect the larger buyers of August haven’t abandoned the trade since then and if so, they
are also tight hands as MENE moves back into the 70s price zone.
Excelsior Mining (MIN.to), Trilogy Metals (TMQ), Copper Mountain (CMMC.to):
POSITIONS ADDED: Not totally as planned as I paid up then watched the profit-take happen
around me, but short-termism aside the additions happened and this weekend leave me
wondering whether I added too many (stocks drop next week) or too few (stocks rise next
week).
 Regarding Excelsior (MIN.to), the stock was bid up nearly all week and traded very
nicely compared to most copper juniors. Good to see it break a Loonie, but the real
longer-term resistance levels are slightly higher.
 Regarding Copper Mountain (CMMC.to), we finally saw profit-taking in the stock after
several weeks of non-stop accumulation. That’s fine by me, profits are meant to be
taken, though I could have saved myself 5% or so on the cost of last week’s addition
by being a little more patient. So be it.
 Regarding Trilogy Metals (TMQ): A longer piece, below
A good and informative webinar from the TMQ team on Wednesday December 9th, presented
by CEO Giardini (recording here (1) and worth your time). TMQ went through the need-to-know
on the company and its most advanced Ambler project for those new to the story, then later in
the show got to the messaging. When we got to the expected/proposed timelines for TMQ, CEO
Giardini said the current approximate 30 month track to final permitting (road, enviro, build
permits, everything) is a real world 36 months (after witnessing how the consultation periods in
the first stages have gone), so they think 2027 to 2028 is a “doable” track to first production at
Ambler.
10

However, the real message from Giardini’s presentation was the way Ambler Metals (50% TMQ,
50% S32) is now looking to the long-term future and all the talk of timelines and specific
promises to be producing at a certain date are not the company’s top priority, and it shows.
When analysts on the call pressed him on a timeline to production (they need that cookie-cutter
reply), Giardini guided them in a new direction, the way TMQ considers itself and all
stakeholders, rather than the interests of equity holders. They include the NANA indigenous
committee, South 32, the people directly involved in the road permitting track, and others, TMQ
is now carefully positioning itself as the “evolving fixed asset play”, in much the same way
stable mate company, NovaGold (NG), manages to retain a massive market valuation in the
gold sphere without ever getting to a build or production decision. Due to this, we heard plenty
about the 2021 exploration campaign set to drill some of the other high priority targets
generated over its extended concession area, as well as its plans to unlock value at the high-
grade Bornite property, its second most advanced (and the reason South32 got interested in
the first place).
TMQ is an investment predicted on three arguments: Firstly, it is going to add value to an
exciting project with a clear run to production. Second, it’s an area play and both partners are
looking to the long-term and the potential for a multi-generational mining camp. Third and
finally, it’s a buyout play as we know South32 will not take it to production in JV, at some point
they will move to buy out their exploreco partner. However, this apparent steady and unexciting
model for 2021 won’t stop TMQ from being its normal self and the stock can move hard and
fast when volume shows up. As my bad market timing is well-documented the solution is
straightforward: I hold until the action happens.
Royal Road Minerals Ltd. (RYR.v): This time last year I wrote up and published on my site
visit to RYR in Nicaragua (IKN551 dated
December 12th, available on request), I
therefore indulge in a 12 month price chart:
On the day of my report, RYR was a 26.5c
stock and this weekend, it’s a 27c stock after
taking a bit of a hit at market on the week. All
the same, even 10% up over 12 months
would be mediocre price progress for a mining
company in 2020 and RYR has been a bit of a
disappointment to date. For a while during the
Full Bull Gold run RYR traded above 40c and
looked a reasonable entry point at 35c, the
drop since mid-November took away all that.
The company has drilled and found some success to date, Luna Roja and Caribe in Nica both
showing the type of results the team wanted, but there hasn’t been a big market mover from
the company either in the Triangulo Minero de Nicaragua, nor in the highly prospective South
Colombia concession lands which will take time and careful CSR to unlock. My two cents is that
this lack of a Slam-Dunk over the year is the reason we have sellers now and if so, the sales are
limited and won’t go on for much longer.
This is one of the high-risk, pure exploreco options in the current portfolio, the ones where you
buy the strategy rather than the next drill target. Despite its mediocre 2020 I’m a fan of RYR
and the way it does business, its “proxy to the majors in tough zones” positioning means it will
get funded indefinitely.
New Gold (NGD): After a soft November, NGD has added 20% in the last two weeks and is
back to the highs of October.
11

The reason is structural and we again see how NGD is courting its most important audience,
rather than us retail grunts these days. Although I should have mentioned it last week and
didn’t here it is:
Toronto, Ontario (November 23, 2020) – New Gold Inc. (“New Gold” or the “Company”) (TSX and
NYSE American: NGD) today announced that, pursuant to the terms of the indenture governing
its 6.375% Senior Notes due 2025 (the “2025 Notes”), it has issued a notice of redemption to
redeem $200 million aggregate principal amount of the outstanding 2025 Notes on December 23,
2020. The redemption of the 2025 Notes will be funded with cash on hand.
NGD once again informed the Wall St. instos that it is committed to improving its balance sheet
as quickly as possible. As we know NGD is being quietly shopped as an M&A target, this makes
a lot of sense as no major company wants to buy debt with cash in 2020.
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): This coming week sees the AGM vote. From snippets and anecdotes
picked up, I know some MIRL shareholders have delivered a bit of a “protest vote” with their
shares (e.g. refusing to vote up the auditors) so the result may turn out to be somewhat
anomalous, however it’s highly unlikely any motion is voted down and CEO Benavides’s job is
not under threat. Something he knows all too well, having entrenched himself in the company
by using the NR timing on the COFIDE negotiation “progress” to his best advantage. Whether
deliberate or accidental, it is the way it is.
To be clear and reiterate the house position, I am a reluctant holder of MIRL stock. The lack of
backroom progress made by the company on other fronts during the legal and then negotiation
process with COFIDE sticks out like a sore thumb these days, any company that truly had
financiers “waiting in the wings” (as we were told for years) would have announced a proactive
decision by now and would be ready to go build a mine in early 2021 (we remind readers, all
major permits awarded and local community fully on-side). CEO Benavides has deceived his
shareholders, but as my expectations of him are now low, the company can provide immediate
and significant upside by surprising us in the future. Either changing CEO or the current CEO
announcing a financing package would be enough, I’d take either.
Great Bear Resources (GBR.v): When GBR “halted pending news”, your author the relative
newcomer in the stock was more excited than its long-termers. Once the news was released
(2)…
“Great Bear Drills 510 m Step-Down, Doubles Hinge Zone Depth with 15.18
g/t Gold Over 4.90 m from 1,190.00 m Downhole”
…I was reminded by wiser heads that (and I quote person MM) “…drill results under halt cave
it.” The news was indeed positive and the CEO quote has the main reason: “Our second deep
drill hole at Dixie has more than doubled the depth of the Hinge zone to over 850 vertical
metres. The deep intercept demonstrates the significant expansion potential of the Dixie
Project at depth.” However, it was also an assumption largely baked into most models and
mere confirmation of an assumption doesn’t move the market under normal circumstances.
12

GBR these days is a big company plaything and not a retail vehicle; the share price action has
the signs of insto positional shorting, the type used by large money to keep a price under
control until the day of the buyout. In this trade I’ll also need to apply patience, my original
plan to buy before a buyout having gone asunder when the Full Bull Gold run came to its end.
Instead, GBR is going to sit in the portfolio and if it doesn’t do much until the day of the M&A
announcement, I won’t fret.
The Copper Basket
After 50 weeks of 2020, The Copper Basket shows a 65.23% gain to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Capstone Min CS.to 0.76 399.598 831.16 2.08 173.7%
2 Imperial Metals III.to 2.06 128.49 517.81 4.03 95.6%
3 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.45 181.52 341.26 1.88 317.8%
4 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 3.38 138.905 329.20 2.37 -29.9%
5 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 0.71 191.3 294.60 1.54 116.9%
6 Excelsior Min. MIN.to 1.00 238.658 252.98 1.06 6.0%
7 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 1.625 64.358 210.45 3.27 101.2%
8 Western Copper WRN.to 1.07 107.586 172.14 1.60 60.7%
9 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.59 180.169 145.94 0.81 37.3%
10 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.28 101.85 101.85 1.00 -21.9%
11 Atico Mining ATY.v 0.31 119.023 65.46 0.55 77.4%
12 Chakana Cop PERU.v 0.245 93.2 45.20 0.485 98.0%
13 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.47 77.636 31.05 0.40 -14.9%
14 Doré Copper DCMC.v 1.25 31.798 26.39 0.83 -33.6%
15 Chibougamau CBG.v 0.17 46.695 7.47 0.16 -5.9%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 65.23%
The Copper Basket average dropped a couple of points last week as profit-takers did their
thing. The final count saw five winners (CS.to,
MIN.to, WRN.to, DCMC.v, CBG.v), no 80% The Copper Basket 2020, weekly evolution
unchanged stocks and ten week-over-week 70%
60%
losers (TMQ.to, III.to, CMMC.to, REG.v, 50%
40%
MARI.to, ARG.to, OCO.v, ALDE.v, ATY.v, 30%
20%
PERU.v). The biggest winners were 10%
Chibougamau (CBG.v up 10.4%) and 0%
-10%
Capstone (CS.to up 10.1%), the biggest -20%
-30%
losers were Chakana (PERU.v down 14.9%) -40%
-50%
and Trilogy (TMQ.to down 8.1%). Not sure if
-60%
this visual helps or hinders, but it has survived
the edit and its semi-randomly chosen
examples from the our Copper Basket, are set
against the main copper producers’ ETF
(COPX) to attempt to illustrate this was profit-
taking, more than a sudden shift in sentiment
away from the metal.
As for copper the metal, it ignored the equities
and kept being bought up. This hourlies chart
(from new house source barcharts, as previous
preferred site for futures charts “inside futures”
is sundowning) shows the week’s trend in the
most active futures contract, plus the Thursday
spike that spooked the market on the downside.
13
ts13ceD ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 ts1ram ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5rpa ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yam ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7nuj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5luj ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2gua ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6pes ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4tco ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1von ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6ced ht31
source: IKN calcs

The longer-dated chart (below) is more interesting. History has a simple lesson, when copper
spikes to U$3.50/lb it does not stop at U$3.50/lb. The tightness of the physical market (see the
inventories section below) is conducive to the type of spikes we’ve seen copper display in the
past. This metal can add or subtract 50c/lb in a week and it’s worth remembering that, as to
date the bull run in copper has been steady, the only acceleration coming after the $3.00/lb line
was breached:
As for this weeks’ curated wire comment on the sector, a longer excerpt from this Reuters note
(3) for reasons below:
LONDON, Dec 9 (Reuters) - Copper and other industrial metals rose on Wednesday as optimism
over the rollout of coronavirus vaccines bolstered expectations for a rebound in global economic
growth and metals demand.
Britain on Tuesday began a vaccination campaign, while Johnson & Johnson said it could obtain
late-stage trial results of a COVID-19 vaccine it is developing earlier than expected and Pfizer Inc
cleared another regulatory hurdle on its jab.
The news overpowered fears about rising infections as many nations scramble to quell another
round of new cases.
Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.7% at $7,749 a tonne at 1710 GMT,
close to the $7,800 touched on Monday, its highest since March 2013.
Prices in recent weeks have also been supported by strength in the Chinese economy, which
accounts for more than half of global metals demand.
INVENTORIES: In warehouses registered with the LME, total copper stocks have fallen 20%
since mid-October to 149,575 tonnes. Stocks in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures
Exchange are near their lowest since 2014. MCUSTX-TOTALCU-STX-SGH
Copper rising on Covid-19 vaccines = copper rising on 2021 demand from China, a demand that
the market is clearly having problems in covering. This comes at the same time as reports (4)
Codelco is raising its premium to traders in several markets. We move to our regular look at
copper inventories, data from Cochilco:
 World copper stocks continued their aggregate drop, though trading was anything but
14

quiet. Stocks dropped by 19,525 metric tonnes (mt) to close the week on the 300k line,
at 300,937mt.
 The big move came at the SHFE, a highly significant 15,691mt (16.1%) to stand this
weekend at 82,092mt. Last week we wrote about emergency levels of stock, that
sentiment should be doubled by what went on in SHFE last week. The phrase “scraping
the bottom of the barrel” comes to mind and the signal could not be more obvious;
China wants more copper. The typical purchasing cycle of the Asia market means
warehouse stocks reach lows around Christmas time, before rebounding into the
Occidental and then Chinese New Year. With SHFE getting tight, there’s a real sense of
“how low can it go?” now before stocks rebound.
 at the LME, the same direction lower, just not as dramatic as the SHFE move. Stocks
dropped on the week by 3,350mt, finishing at 146,325mt. Once again, let’s underscore
how historically low that number is, too.
 Comex makes it three out of three for the second week, the small 484mt drop meaning
stocks stand at 72,520mt this weekend.
The Shanghai-only inventories chart says “How Low Can You Go?” and the last two years have
seen the very bottom in the first week of January.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, Dec'16 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
15
ht72 ht42 ts12 ht02 ht71 ht51 ht21 ht01 ht7guA ht4peS dn2tcO ht03 ht4ceD 7102ts1naJ ht92 ht62 ht62 dr32 ts12 ht81 ht61 ht31 ht01 ht8 ht5von dr3ced ts13 ht82 ht52 ht52 dn22 ht72 ht42 dn22 ht91 ht61 ht41 ht11 ht9 ht6naJ 9102
dr3bef
dr3ram ts13 ht82 ht62 dr32 ts12 ht81 ht51 ht31 ht01 ht8 0202ht5naj 0202dn2bef 0202ts1ram ht92 ht62 ht42 ts12 ht91 ht61 ht31 ht11 ht8 0202ht6ced
Mt Cu
source: Cochilco
Now for notes on some of our basket stocks:
Oroco Resources (OCO.v): Last week OCO moved to fill its treasury by announcing a
placement (5), here’s how the NR began:
VANCOUVER, Canada — (December 9, 2020) Oroco Resource Corp. (TSX-V: OCO)
(“Oroco” or “the Company”) is pleased to announce that it has closed a non-brokered
private placement of 12,900,000 units at a price of $1.20 per unit (each, a “Unit”), for
gross proceeds of $15,480,000 (the “Financing”). Each Unit consists of one common
share and one-half of one common share purchase warrant. Each whole share
purchase warrant will be exercisable into one additional common share of Oroco for a
period of 24 months from closing at a price of $1.60 per share.
Nobody will blame this company for cashing in on its popularity. Even more impressively, the
open market applauded the closed-before-
announced deal by happily trading the
shares at $1.88, which means that any
previous holder allowed in on this deal could
swap out their holding for an immediate 50%
profit and pick up an ITM half warrant, too.
Ladies and gents, I’ve willingly eaten my
crow on OCO, but this company is too
expensive for what it is and the stage of

development at which we find ourselves. I understand the outcropping nature of the
mineralization helps greatly with op-ex, but this…
…has to improve significantly in size to support a market cap now edging on C$400m once the
placement shares are distributed. Also impressive is this:
In consideration for assistance in arranging the private placement, the Company is paying finder’s
fees of $50,000 and 40,000 finder’s fee warrants to RFC Ambrian Limited; 38,400 Units and
10,000 finder’s fee warrants to Longford Capital Corp.; and 70,000 finder’s fee warrants to
Mariusz Skonieczny. Each finder’s fee warrant will entitle the holder to purchase one common
share of the Company for a period of 24 months from closing at a price of $1.20 per share. All
shares and finder’s fee warrants issued in relation to these finder’s fees are subject to a hold
period expiring April 9, 2021.
There’s a long tradition of mine owners who also run coinage mints, the two are historically
complementary. The mindset of for example, Hieronymus Schlick and his 16th century
Joachimsthaler, the coin that eventually gave us the word “dollar”. At OCO, we see Craig Dalziel
continuing the tradition, as he apparently thinks he has the right to print money.
Chibougamau Independent Mines Inc. (CBG.v): CBG confirmed the house impression of
its trade set-up potential last week when announcing (6) a $1m flow-through placement priced
at 17c, along with a small $50k financing to sell just over 350k shares to a director (my bet is
on Dave Lotan).The latter is for the annual audit and to keep the lights on, the former should
see the company through the 12 months to come once closed.
The trade set-up in this stock is now as simple as it is obvious. A position in CBG in 2021 is a
trade on increased interest in the copper sector and increased interest in this corner of Canada.
Chibougamau has started to attract interest as an alternative mining camp zone for Quebec and
the province will view any plan to improve its poor copper production profile with kind eyes. A
position in CBG won’t be an exciting one, area plays don’t tend to be. If you believe exploreco
target assets are about to revalue, CBG is a live alternative for your smaller cash.
Capstone Mining (CS.to): The biggest news in the copper space last week also has
ramifications for the royalty/streamer sector and is another arrow that points to the Royaltycos
underperformance going forward. Friday pre-open, CS announced (7) it had agreed a streaming
deal on its silver production from its Cozamin mine with Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM).
Terms are straightforward, with Capstone getting a U$150m upfront payment, the 10% of spot
for the 50% of its silver production to 10m oz.
From that point, WPM gets 33% of metal
produced on the same terms. As current mine
life plus extensions get us roughly to 20m oz
silver in estimated future production, the value of
the deal is in the main terms. In short, WPM is
betting on silver because at current spot prices,
this is poor deal for the streaming company to
earn $75m over a decade for double outlay. The
market agreed, with Capstone flying on both the
deal terms and the implication of a First Right of
Refusal between the two companies for any
funding deal for the Santo Domingo project in
Chile (copper/iron ore, the iron would be
attractive to somebody). As this five day chart shows, WPM got no relief from the dip earlier in
16

the week, the market nonplussed by its end of the terms.
The first thing to state is that after considering buying CS instead of CMMc a few weeks ago, I
may have made the wrong decision. This is an excellent deal for Capstone, the accompanying
corporate presentation underscoring its firm commitment to using this financial operation to
strengthen its financial status. CS was keen to underscore its prudent attitude towards funding
and debt, acknowledging its recent underperformance and doing a rather overdue mea culpa
on several aspects of its operations (all now solved, they wouldn’t talk about them otherwise).
But that’s me and my cynicism, CS delivered market-moving news last week and showed who
has the upper hand in current funding negotiations.
Which brings us to the other side of the coin, as this is another signal that the streamer/royalty
sector may have had its best days already. We’re in a new financial environment and the
streaming/royalty players now have to compete with low cost capital coming into the sector
from other places, willing to deal. Not only that, but I’ve heard from several companies in
recent months that, paraphrasing, have put the phone down on the up-and-coming new round
of start-up royalty/streamer companies on hearing what they would offer and on what terms.
The deal offers are poor, the type that juniors may reach for during cycle lows but not today
when there are options on the table for the best projects. In sum, the royalty/streamer sector
looks ripe for disruption, they are trying and failing to get the type of margin they need on new
deals to impress shareholders and when they look for more, mining companies look elsewhere.
WPM may have done this deal as a quasi loss-leader, in order to be at the front of the queue
for Santo Domingo. Either way, this is nobody’s idea of a win-win.
The Producer Basket
After 50 weeks of 2020, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 23.43% to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out Mkt Cap (Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 43.45 819.84 48.28 58.89 35.5%
2 Barrick GOLD 18.59 1779.04 40.74 22.90 23.2%
3 Franco-Nevada FNV 103.30 188.6 24.75 131.21 27.0%
4 Agnico Eagle AEM 61.61 238.985 16.77 70.16 13.9%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.74 1253.5 9.03 7.20 51.9%
6 Royal Gold RGLD 122.25 65.375 7.14 109.26 -10.6%
7 Pan American PAAS 23.69 209.61 6.22 29.66 25.2%
8 B2Gold BTG 4.01 1025.75 5.66 5.52 37.7%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 6.02 391.19 3.50 8.95 48.7%
10 Buenaventura BVN 15.10 254.19 3.14 12.37 -18.1%
Prices in U$, NYSE/NASDAQ tickers Portfolio avg 23.43%
A mixed bag of a week, with five losers (NEM, GOLD, RGLD, PAAS, BTG) making the difference
as the basket average lost three-quarters of a point. Kinross (KGC) was unchanged, which
means here were four week-over-week winners (FNV, AGI, BVN, AGI) and that’s not a bad
haul. There were no big movers in either direction.
The 2020 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
60%
comparative to GDX control
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
17 ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 ts1ram ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5rpa ht21 ht91 ht62 r3yam ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7nuj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5luj ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2gua ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6pes ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4tco ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1von ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6ced ht31
The 2020 Producer Basket: Percentage difference between
GDX benchmark and basket (negative = IKN basket ahead)
2.0%
1.0%
basket
0.0%
gdx control
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
-6.0%
-7.0% source: Google, IKN calcs
-8.0%
ts13ceD ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 ts1ram ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5rpa ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yam ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7nuj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5luj ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2gua ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6pes ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4tco ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1von ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6ced ht31
source: IKN calc, NYSE/Nasdaq data

We’re 3.68% up on the GDX benchmark with two weeks to go, it would take a profit warning or
an unexpected and poorly received M&A announcement to ruin it now.
No big commentary on the large miner sector this weekend, they are moving as expected and
as a group. In a slight aside (and while it’s on my mind), we dropped soft coverage of Kirkland
Lake (KL) mid-year after using the stock as an alternative haven for cash that was later
deployed to our sector of focus once again. We were lucky at the time and made a few %
difference while “storing” the cash there”, but alongside the minor trade, we’d been covering KL
because of its benchmark potential and how it had under-performed in 2020 to that point. We
therefore return today, just before the end of the year and note the US listed stock at U$41.04
this weekend, down 6.9% in 2020 year-to-date.
The Tiny Dogs
Here are our ten and after forty weeks, the average is up by 35.92%:
company ticker price 16/2/20 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 136.26 6.13 0.045 -30.8%
2 Chakana Copper PERU.v 0.175 93.2 45.20 0.485 177.1%
3 Constantine Met CEM.v 0.19 45.35 8.39 0.185 -2.6%
4 Contact Gold C.v 0.175 84.472 9.71 0.115 -34.3%
5 Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.065 230.79 10.39 0.045 -30.8%
6 Salazar Res* SRL.v 0.18 126.55 37.97 0.30 66.7%
7 Radius Gold RDU.v 0.235 86.94 25.65 0.295 25.5%
8 Red Pine Expl RPX.v 0.035 477.22 21.47 0.045 28.6%
9 Warrior Gold WAR.v 0.055 68.2 6.14 0.09 63.6%
10 Wolfden Res WLF.v 0.13 129.532 27.85 0.215 65.4%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV (*SRL price from May 2nd) basket avg 35.92%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list that represents what’s going on in the
whole sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The basket dropped by 3.4% last week, as the percentage size of the four losers (PERU.v,
MTU.v, SRL.v, WAR.v) outweighed the five winners (BAY.v, CEM.v, C.v, RDU.v, RPX.v), with
only Wolfden (WLF.v) remaining unchanged. The sub-sector continues with its weak signal and
there’s only so much I want to say about interesting but imperfect stocks such as WLF, BAY or
C.v…I don’t want to give a false impression, the acid test at this publication is purchase.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It is possible that in the
future I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, but at the moment both my opinion and my wallet are strictly
neutral.
18

Regional politics
Your brief Covid-19 regional update
It’s not going to be long, you have enough on your plate as it is. No matter whether left or right
wing, there’s now little doubt those populist
governments that pooh-pooh basic medical
advice on masks, distancing and hygiene
based on solid science and clear statistical
evidence are having a bad second wave.
Mexico is looking at a second wave that is
launching off the first, the winter spike is now
ominous and akin to its Northern neighbour
and AMLO’s lax attitude toward the virus has
finally annoyed his most ardent supporters.
His presidency to date has been one that the
newspapers and political mostly despise and
even more so as his support has held among
the working class. Those newspaper op-ed
writers feel they are finally making inroads.
In the South, the region’s prime example of
populism paying a heavy bill is the biggest
Brazil, whose President Bolsonaro has been on
a criminally negligent path all year but is now
being called out for it at high tables. Bolsonaro
has scored a massive vaccine own-goal by
betting all his chips on the Oxford AstraZeneca
vaccine, not only refusing other vaccine offers
from different countries but also openly
ridiculing that of the Chinese offer. Now that
the Oxford AstraZeneca has gone back for
further trials to improve its efficacy, Brazil is
left with a gap of months before any country-
sized consignment of vaccines might arrive.
At this point I get to let somebody else do the translations of local reaction for a change (8)
“…the Folha de São Paulo slammed Bolsonaro’s “homicidal negligence”, claiming
Brazilians had been “abandoned by the government” and condemned to “watch in
distress” as vaccination began elsewhere.
“Bolsonaro’s killer stupidity over the coronavirus pandemic has crossed every single
line. It’s time for him to abandon this criminal recklessness and at least pretend to have
the ability and maturity to lead a nation of 212 million at such a dramatic moment in its
collective history. Enough tomfoolery with the vaccine!” it declared.
The Estado de São Paulo lambasted Bolsonaro’s “lethal incompetence”, writing: “We
know neither how many vaccines the federal government will have, nor when. There
are signs there will be a shortage of needles. And the [health] ministry resists
negotiating viable options, such as CoronaVac … for blatantly political motives.”
“There isn’t a single aspect of the handling of this crisis that hasn’t been contaminated
by the obscurantism, neglect, incompetence or dishonesty of the president or his
puppet in the health ministry,” it added.
Far more than any President or Head of State in any Northern hemisphere country you might
care to mention, there’s a clear line of “re-election or jail” about Jair Bolsonaro now.
EY and “Ten Risks for Mining in 2021”
Wednesday is quickly becoming wholesale webinar day at this desk. Also, it’s not the first week
that the best of the half dozen seen was in the Spanish language and this week we report to
19

you on the EY (what they now call Ernst and Young) Chile office conference, which unveiled its
annual report entitled “10 Risks and Opportunities for Mining” (9) 2021 version. Here’s the
overview slide from the presentation (#1 is the most important, #10 least), your translation is
below:
10: Innovation
9: Data digitalization
8: Volatility
7: Workforce
6: Availability of capital
5: Geopolitics
4: Decarbonization/environmental agenda
3: Productivity and rising costs
2: High impact risks (in light of Covid-19)
1: Social Licencing
Unsurprisingly, the top risk identified by the study of over 250 companies across LatAm is CSR.
The EY report quantified this in several ways, including that “63% of communities expect too
much from an agreement with a mining company” (10). The shocks produced by Covid-19 have
sharpened the executive mind toward Fat Tail risks, which make the number two spot. Also
unsurprising, “productivity and rising costs” is on the minds of mining C-suites; We know rising
prices for metals is no free lunch and the task is to maintain as much raw margin as possible.
Chile plans copper refinery investment
Another high quality Chilean online learning experience came Thursday, in the seminary
(translated) “New Smelting Capacity for Chile” organized by industry leaders CESCO and with a
title like that, it was impossible not to tune in. Featuring national heavy hitter mining names
including sub-secretary of mining (Mining Minister Veep), analysts at CRU and CESCO and
Chilean members of Senate (11).
The main message was left to the director of CESCO (his conference), Iván Valenzuela, who
first underscored Chile’s need for new smelting capacity, above all in copper, refuted the sub-
sector reputation as a loss-maker, then went about outlining the country’s plans to do so. His
words translated:
“When we started to study the subject, the first reaction of many was surprise; they
thought “the sector is dead, it’s not attractive, an anachronism.” The assumption that
smelting is not profitable comes from some companies that have been clearly run
badly. Our interest is in separating out factors because we believe that although the
smelting business is challenging, it can be profitable and a keystone for sustainable
mining in the future (for Chile).”
20

Valenzuela then moved on to outline the CESCO technical proposal to build new smelting
facilities in Chile. The proposed investment is U$1.5Bn, which would provide a smelter capacity
of 1.5mt Cu per annum at a cash cost of U$0.17/lb Cu and an internal IRR of 13%. These
figures based on a smelter that enjoys geographical advantages and can easily accept locally
produced concentrate. If adopted by Chile, the plant could be in production as early as 2027.
More of his words translated:
“The installation of a latest generation smelter would allow the capture of 99% of S02
emissions, plus a 71% saving on greenhouse gas effects by not transporting
concentrates to China. It would also be a great technological improvement, allowing us
to treat complex minerals and recover valuable by-products as well as improving the
image of the mining industry, a critical factor to reach social licencing. It will stop Chile
from being pushed by the market into a “point of no return” in the copper value chain.”
Unlike other countries, in Chile this type of economic initiative doesn’t tend to stay at committee
level, we will follow the progress of this plan to add real value to the world’s biggest copper in
2021.
Colombia rolls out a smart pro-mining plan
Somebody in Colombia’s Ministry of Energy and Mining has come up with a smart plan. In
regions of the country authorized to receive mining State mining royalties (i.e. the regions
where the mining takes place) Colombia’s MINEM has launched the “Investment Projects for the
Promotion of Mining 2020” (Borat-like literal translations are good), to which the Duque
government has earmarked 35Bn pesos (U$102m) for local governments and entities with
projects for the royalties gathered during the last financial year. The plan offers three options,
with two aimed at smaller, artisanal-type miners who will be able to form better and more
profitable co-operatives under the scheme (Royal Road may be a beneficiary).
The main line offered to local authorities and municipalities (quote) (12) “corresponds to the
attention of the mining community via Centres of Mining Development, with a maximum project
budget of U$15m, that permits the mining sector needs and those of the actors in the related
chain of value be satisfied.” Delights of formal Castilian Spanish aside, that’s an invitation from
the national government to any municipality with a project that needs funding, the only pre-
requisite being the acceptance of mining activity in the zone. To put it diplomatically, there’s
nothing that LatAm local mayors and related authorities like more than access to a piggy bank
of this type so expect this to be popular.
Argentina: The Chubut vote is delayed (and law project modified)
No surprises in the parliament of Chubut last week. The week in Mining Law modification went
largely as expected in the province, with Governor Arcioni deciding not to push the vote to
decide whether the “Zonification” plan becomes law because he wasn’t sure about winning it (if
you care enough, there are 27 voting seats in the Chubut parliament, Arcioni thought he had
14, then on Wednesday at least two of the congress members expressed doubts about voting
his way). Therefore the debate and possible vote has been set back to December 22nd, which is
also the last day of parliament for Chubut in 2020. The most likely scenario now is a further
delay until after the Southern hemisphere summer recess, but if the governor manages to
convince enough of congress in the next two weeks, they may end up voting that day (13).
In other news, as part of the process to make the “Zonification” more acceptable, this week two
of the four zones set to be “zonified” in the central Meseta region have been dropped from the
plan. The planned zones cordoned off for mining are now down to two, though we should note
they totally contain the area of interest for Navidad. There have also been plenty of pro-mining
and anti-mining protests in the province and mining is top of the political agenda at the
moment, not normally good for an industry that prefers the “no news is good news” route.
Ecuador: Alvaro Noboa muddies the field
In the last weeks the candidate originally disqualified from running, the perma-politico right-
wing multi-millionaire businessman Alvaro Noboa, has been pushing his case for reinstatement
21

into the election and this weekend the Ecuador Electoral body is set to make its decision. If
Noboa is allowed to run (which now looks likely, but not certain) he will split the Guillermo
Lasso vote and make Andrés Arauz (Rafael Correa’s dauphin) a near-certainty to make round
two. There’s suddenly a lot at stake in the courtrooms and much will hang on the current
government’s preference for next leader (cutting a long story short, current President Lenin
Moreno doesn’t want to go to jail, he’ll therefore pick the candidate that tells him he won’t).
Meanwhile, the upcoming referendum in the Cuenca region and the opposition and protests
against mining activity in Ecuador are beginning to show in the world’s business press. Here’s
Reuters last week (14) in a note entitled “Strife with indigenous groups could derail Ecuador's
drive to be a mining power”, and here’s a short extract:
“Mining Deputy Minister Cesar Vasquez told Reuters in a recent interview that Ecuador is
prepared to adjust timeframes so concessions do not expire due to social conflicts. Still, he
acknowledged that community resistance was dampening investor enthusiasm.
“There are people who are opposed to mining activity and they are going to (oppose it) with or
without the law,” he said. “The state will always act within the law to defend the interests of the
country.”
Peru: Early voter intention for the 2021 Presidential election
With four months to go and one of those the national summer vacation period, the 2021
Peruvian Presidential election is now at hand and campaigning is getting into gear. This
weekend, pollster IEP published (15) what’s probably the first realistic look at the early field.
Here’s a chart:
Peru Presdential Poll: IEP survey
25% (Dec 1-8, MoE +/-2.8%) 22.4%
20%
14.7%
15%
9.1% 9.1%
10% 7.9%
6.3%
4.5% 4.1% 5.1% 5.3%
5% 3.1% 2.9%
2.0% 1.8% 1.7%
0%
22
htysroF namzuG azodneM iromijuF ítserrU onacseL otoS
eD
yrrevlaS alamuH añucA arevilO rehto ATO
enoN
wonk
t'noD
tollab
liopS
source: La Republica
George Forsyth (ex-professional footballer, new-ish to politics, mayor of a borough in Lima,
looking to capture the youth/change vote) continues to lead in the early polling, but is down
eight points and polls at 14.7%. Then come the other four with realistic chances, the classic left
wing Veronika Mendoza, leader of the centre-right Morado party Julio Guzmán, the populist
Keiko Fujimori with the strong “Fuji Base” in the lower socioeconomic classes, then hard right
wing Daniel Urrestí. However, the most important information now is to the right of that chart:
In much the same way as Ecuador, this country with obligatory vote is seeing its population
reject or abstain from participation, often due to disgust at results or samo samo proposals. To
underscore this, the above survey obliged participants to choose a candidate and even under
instructions, 29% didn’t want to. When offered a free choice on the vote, no fewer than 63% of
Peruvians asked said they wouldn’t choose any of them.
The bottom line is that this election is up for grabs and FWIW, here’s a quick personal opinion
on the early field: Forsyth has a good chance if he can show himself to be 1) free of the “old
school” of chummy corrupt Peru politics and 2) with enough gravitas to attract the non-youth
vote. Otherwise Julio Guzmán is well positioned in these early stages, with a new party machine
that has national reach and has been gearing up five years for this campaign. Other candidates,
such as Keiko Fujimori and Veronika Mendoza, complicate the election by being possible
winners or runners-up in the round one vote, meaning they could get one of the places in the
two-candidate run-off despite having very little chance of ultimate success (e.g. Keiko is now a

polemic figure in the country, with hardcore “Fuji” support but also 63% of voters saying they
will never vote for her under any circumstances). The dark horse is Daniel Urrestí, who has
positioned as the Trump of Peru with hard-line right wing populism. As for those on the outside
looking in, the business world will frown upon the candidacy of Veronika Mendoza, the others
won’t worry them too much.
Market Watching
Mantaro Silver raises its QT
A few weeks ago we ran a couple of blog posts on the still private company Mantaro Silver (16)
(17). The first noted the poor optics of the person chosen as Peru director, the second when
company CEO Chris Wilson phoned round Lima the next day, trying to find out the basics on
one of his nominated directors because he’d just appeared on my blog . That is the kind of
corporate communications cock-up that happens when a geology team meets the Vancouver’s
machine and “all that corporate stuff” is conveniently taken out of their hands.
Anyway, today is not to rake old coals, rather to inform and Mantaro last week closed on its 35c
Qualifying Transaction (18) to raise gross proceeds of C$5.3m. This means is listing is
imminent, so as the company has the promotion and marketing wunderkinds of both Vancouver
and Toronto on board expect a heavy promotion out the gate.
Chesapeake Gold (CGK.v) tries to rouse a monster
The most intriguing junior news of the week came on December 11th in this NR (19)
announcing significant changes at Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v). In effect, the share and asset
purchase deal ends with CKG buying a private company Alderley Gold, co-owned by Alan
Pangbourne and Mr. Pangbourne becoming CEO of the company (replacing Randy Reifel).
The reasons behind this are certainly connected with a line in the first paragraph of the NR,
when Alderley is described as “…a private company whose assets include certain sulphide
leaching technology held under license.” That’s because CKG is the owner of Metates, a large
and undeveloped gold project in Mexico that’s often called by the company itself “the largest
permitted gold project in the world”. The reason Metates has been permitted and waiting for
capex that has never arrived is that the deposit and eventual mine is complicated.
In the days ahead, as CKG is rolled out as a new hot trade potential, you are sure to hear that
it has 18m oz of gold (plus good silver and zinc kickers) on many occasions. That 18m is solid
M+I as well, forming the backbone to two 43-101 compliant Pre-Feasibility Studies (PFS) on
Metates to show its economic potential. However, there are other factors aside those 18m oz of
gold you need before getting a better picture. First that size and here’s the P+P reserve, as
from the 2016 PFS:
That’s enough to feed a mine plan that runs to 30 years on the known ore, then assumes 31+
and further activity. In so many words Metates is a monster, with the reserve coming to 1.110
billion ore tons at 0.516 g/t gold, 14.2 g/t silver, and 0.164% zinc. Those imply contained metal
amounts of 18.3m oz Au, 501.6m oz Ag and 4.0Bn lbs Zn. A lot of metal, however the prima
facie advantages soon hit the problems that have stopped the mine from becoming a reality to
23

date. Although somewhat related to one another, here are the four main issues
 Capex: The 2013 PFS gave a $3.8Bn capex bill. In 2016 that became a “low entry” of
$1.9Bn, followed by $1.6Bn of stage two capex for a total of U$3.5Bn. This is a project
for the deepest of pockets.
 Grade and recovery: Metates has a high capex bill because it’s a high-tonnage bulk
mining project. Low grade projects need to be predictable in order to work, Metates
hasn’t shown that and getting the level of recoveries it requires on a regular basis has
stumped all to date. That’s mostly due to the next reason…
 Carbon: …, as the mineralization contains organic carbon that causes the so called
“preg-robbing” effect on recoveries (the gold is liberated by the normal process, only to
be “stolen” again by the carbon in the system and recoveries drop). In the case of
Metates, they have found lab solutions to the preg-rob phenomenon but the process
isn’t cheap.
 Sulphur: Finally, Metates also comes with a high sulphur content (mostly pyrite), which
means environmental law limits stop any large upping of throughputs.
Those are the four big ones at the infamous Metates, but new CEO Pangbourne apparently
believes the prop tech he is bringing is the key to unlock the project. It may be true too, as
Alan Pangbourne’s CV stands next to anyone’s, here’s a paste out of his TMAC directorship
biography:
Alan Pangbourne was most recently the President and Chief Executive Officer and a director of
Guyana Goldfields where he successfully negotiated the sale of the company for a 427%
premium. Mr. Pangbourne has over 35 years of diversified management and senior operational
experience with resource industry expertise in operations, engineering, and major project
development, along with a successful history of company turnarounds and successful mergers
and acquisitions. Mr. Pangbourne was recently the Chief Operating Officer at SSR Mining Inc.
Previously, he was Senior Vice President Projects and Senior Vice President Operations at SSR
Mining Inc, and prior to that, Vice President Projects, South America, at Kinross Gold Corporation.
Before this, he held a number of senior roles over 15 years at BHP Billiton Ltd., including
President and Chief Operating Officer of Nickel Americas which included Cerro Matoso, Colombia
and project development in Guatemala and Cuba. He was also the Projects Director for BHPB's
Uranium Division, which includes the Olympic Dam Expansion, and Project Manager for BHPB's
Spence copper project in Chile. Mr. Pangbourne holds a BappSc in Extractive Metallurgy and
Graduate Diploma in Mineral Processing from WA School of Mines, Kalgoorlie. He also recently
completed the Directors Education Program - ICD at the University of Toronto.
All that and the likely reason he has been chosen to come on board, his success at Guyana
Goldfields has given him kudos with Eric Sprott and others at the top table. His interest in
Metates may be new, it may be long-standing and he knows his prop tech is the right fit
already. But he has the brains to move it forward and the company will get plenty of radar once
it wakes up so whether by long-term
planning or lucky timing, Pangbourne has
earned the right to fail.
As for the prize, unlocking 18m oz gold and
make a mine (or more likely sell it to the
Chinese) from a long-term failure would be a
massive feather in anyone’s cap but it won’t
be easy. To begin, he is hardly the first PhD
brain to put to task over Metates, so far to
no avail and for a feel for that, the 2016 43-
101 is best. It’s a big document and not for
wholesale quoting today, instead consider
just a couple of the sensitivities charts
included in the 43-101 (below). This shows
sensitivity on a range of factors to NPV (5%
24

discount) and two lines stand out; first the clear opportunity, as this 43-101 was based on
U$1,250/oz gold (dark blue) and shows large improvements at +20%, while today we are
almost +50%. The other is the threat, as the
steepness of the recoveries line (light blue)
gives real pause for thought. Even a small
change in recovery levels from the plans
would cut quickly into financials, which means
any innovations brought to the table have to
work all the time. The second chart below is
our visual hack on capital payback (starter-
plus second stage, approx U$3.8Bn budget).
Once again, note how only a small drop-off in
projected recoveries would do serious financial
damage to the company and extend the
payoff period into infinity; this is the price you
pay for modelling low grade resources.
All those result in a difficult project. To re-cap,
the combo of low grade mineral, problematic
metallurgy and high ticket capex gave it a base case IRR of just 7.7% the last time it reported
economics to market, in 2016:
Summing up, expect to hear a lot more about CKG with this managerial switch. The company
has plenty of cash at bank to move quickly (C$34m as at September 30th) and a tight share
structure, with 55.407m shares out before the new deal closes. This weekends C$5.52 share
price gives it a market cap of C$305.9m (or U$14/oz
gold in-situ, ignoring all silver or zinc), so there’s
plenty of potential asset re-rating if the new CEO
can find the way forward.
His task will be to show Metates can be reliably
mined, rather than profitably mined. At U$1,800/oz
gold the economics should work better than before,
even after four years of cost inflation. If he can do
so, the ultimate objective would likely be to find a
Chinese buyer and as Pangbourne has recently done
that once at Guyana Goldfields (to my own surprise,
an M&A scenario I got totally wrong), there’s no
reason why he couldn’t do so again. I be in observation mode only for the time being on CKG,
however I’m expecting increased interest in the stock in the days ahead.
25

Conclusion
IKN603 is done, we end with bullet points:
 I’m going to limit my coverage of MENE.v to Stocks to Follow, plus overviews of any
financial quarters in the Market Watching section. As impressive an opportunity as it is,
I have pushed the window as far as possible for a mining newsletter.
 Copper is set to go higher, position accordingly.
 Fiore Gold’s (F.v) operational reliability allows us to hang reasonable 2021 target
parameters on the stock, instead of the usual conservative all the way. Even so, I am
holding myself back by not upping its price target to $2.70 today. I prefer to take out
the current target first, but the math is clear and in a $2k gold environment, F.v won’t
even need an operating Gold Rock to get there.
 Minera IRL’s AGM is up and a measure of the drain of this stock on the psyche this year
is that I honestly don’t care what happens at the meeting. However, we will report back
next week on the pertinent details.
 My final and sincere thanks to all of you who have kindly donated to David
Bhadreshwar in 2020, your kindness helped people in real need earlier this year, now
you have put smiles on their faces at Christmas. I am in your debt.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good hand-washing fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1)
https://register.gotowebinar.com/recording/viewRecording/11907022593614352/1175147444183005968/renrutkram@g
mail.com?registrantKey=8464707226137119502&type=ATTENDEEEMAILRECORDINGLINK
(2) https://www.greatbearresources.ca/news/great-bear-drills-510-m-step-down-doubles-hinge-zone-depth-with-15.18-g-
t-gold-over-4.90-m-from-1-190.00-m-downhole/
(3) https://www.reuters.com/article/global-metals/metals-copper-rises-on-vaccine-optimism-and-faltering-dollar-
idUSL1N2IP0KY
(4) https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3965917/Codelco-raises-US-copper-premium-for-traders-premium-for-most-
end-users-flat-for-2021-supply-sources.html
(5) https://orocoresourcecorp.com/2211-2/
(6) https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/12/08/2141623/0/en/Chibougamau-Independent-Mines-
Announces-1-Million-Flow-Through-Financing.html
(7) https://capstonemining.com/news/news-details/2020/Capstone-Announces-150-Million-Streaming-Agreement-with-
Wheaton-Precious-Metals-for-50-of-Silver-at-Cozamin/default.aspx
(8) https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/13/brazil-bolsonaro-branded-homicidally-negligent-over-vaccine-
26

planning
(9) https://envivo.eychile.cl/
(10) https://www.nuevamineria.com/revista/estudio-ey-destaca-la-licencia-para-operar-y-la-pandemia-como-los-
mayores-riesgos-para-la-mineria-mundial/
(11) https://www.reporteminero.cl/noticia/noticias/2020/12/seminario-de-cesco-abordo-la-capacidad-de-fundicion-y-
refineria-en-chile
(12) https://www.elnuevosiglo.com.co/articulos/12-13-2020-abren-convocatoria-para-mineria-con-35-mil-millones-de-
regalias-0
(13) https://www.adnsur.com.ar/policiales---judiciales/mineria-en-chubut--el-proyecto-de-zonificacion-no-sera-tratado-
manana-y-la-legislatura-prorrogara-el-periodo-de-sesiones-ordinarias_a5fd0f0341ff12e43bc97ea03
(14) https://www.reuters.com/article/ecuador-mining/focus-strife-with-indigenous-groups-could-derail-ecuadors-drive-to-
be-a-mining-power-idUSL1N2HW171
(15) https://larepublica.pe/elecciones/2020/12/13/cae-george-forsyth-y-cuatro-disputan-segundo-lugar-pltc/
(16) https://iknnews.com/p-t-barnum-phd-has-out-done-himself-this-time/
(17) https://iknnews.com/to-highlight-the-joke-that-is-mantaro-silver/
(18) https://www.prnewswire.com/news/mantaro-silver-corp./
(19) https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/12/11/2144078/0/en/Acquisition-of-Common-Shares-of-
Chesapeake-Gold-Corp.html
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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