2 The IKN Weekly, issue 602 — Dec 06, 2020
The IKN Weekly
Week 602, December 6th 2020
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In today’s edition, The annual call for Basket Cases, “STRONG
BUY”, The IKN fundraiser for David Bhadreshwar.
Fundamental Analysis: MENE Inc (MENE.v): Bet the jockey and the horse.
Stocks to Follow: Excelsior Mining (MIN.to), Trilogy Metals (TMQ), Copper Mountain
(CMMC.to), Tinka Resources (TK.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), New Gold (NGD), Minera IRL
(MIRL.cse), Aurelius Resources (AUL.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Oroco Resources (OCO.v), Doré Copper (DCMC.v), Chibougamau
Independent Mines Inc. (CBG.v), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Regulus Resources (REG.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Buenaventura (BVN).
Tiny Dogs: Overview, Manitou Gold (MTU.v), Wolfden Resources (WLF.v).
Regional Politics: The copper price rescues Chile, Chile: The success of the new insurance
law for mining, Argentina: Chubut may vote on mining (but likely not), Argentina: Inflation
continues rampant, Peru: Using Quellaveco to market mining, Ecuador: Cuenca’s anti-mining
referendum moves to election day.
Market Watching: Golden Minerals (AUMN) (AUMN.to) and an interesting drill NR, Aston Bay
(BAY.v) update, Episode fifty-nine of “What I’d Buy Now”.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
“
Trade heads-up
From the funds raised last week, two things:
I am adding to my copper exposure and look to add to my positions in MIN.to, TMQ
and CMMC.to (in that order of preference) this week.
I am buying Mene Inc (MENE.v) as a long-term trade. As the trade and objective is very
different to the normal at The IKN Weekly with the planned holding time years, rather
than months or quarters, the position can be a slow build. I am looking for a starter
position in the days to come.
In today’s edition
I know it’s not going to be welcomed by all, this is a publication on junior mining
companies and going off-topic is rightly frowned upon. However, The IKN Weekly is
also about “buy low sell high” and in Mene Inc (MENE.v), the trade is compelling.
Opportunities to back a jockey and horse to this extent seldom show, it would be
remiss not to cover this company and bring it to the attention of readership. Today’s
main Fundies section.
The copper junior space has moved into melt-up mode, today’s Copper Basket provides
the commentary. I am adding to held positions but even if your ambitions are merely to
cover your Christmas expenses in style, now is the time to get longer the copper junior
1
space.
But it’s not just copper, as the mining sector as a whole is now moving back into
financial fashion. Gold found its bottom, the Dems make no bones about their plans for
the US Dollar
It’s also Advent, the first week of December is upon us and holiday season traditions
demand that I ask you for ideas. I humble ask your ideas for companies to be includes
next year’s Copper Basket, Producer Basket and Tiny Dogs basket. That’s in today’s
intro, also (and as threatened last week) we feature the blurb from my friend David and
what he’s up to over Christmas in Peru. If you have a dollar to spare on that, he will
appreciate it.
“STRONG BUY”
By deliberate decision, today’s intro is a pared down script with less flowery prose, more direct
information. You may note that the column used to indicate personal near-term sentiment in
the ‘Stocks to Follow’ list has no fewer than 10 of the 15 open positions as STRONG BUY this
weekend, including nine of the top nine holdings by personal preference and/or weighting. That
change to the positive, plus this short opener to draw attention to it, is to underscore my
unalloyed bullishness toward this rapidly improving market for metals and metals’ miners.
The planets Jupiter and Saturn are coming into some sort of alignment this month of
December, the stars are also aligning for our sector of focus and the type of move we enjoyed
mid-year may be in the cards again. We know that last week, issues that normally oppose one
another all made good gains:
Gold and its stocks up 3.5% , the S&P500 and copper spot up almost 2%, these are big moves
and the reason is clear: The USD weakness of
last week marks the beginning of reality about
the state of the US economy. This publication is
guilty of calling false starts to the gold and
mining bull since Biden won the election. The
main disruptor to date has been vaccine
newsflow, plus the way in which the broad
market continues to melt up means less people
looking to find better alternatives for their
money. So I’m going to risk being the boy who
cried wolf once again and opine that last week
was indeed that key turn point, the best
evidence being USD weakness as the moment
when financial hopes were met by reality. Now,
broad markets and gold (stocks) are rising
together because or that reality; there are a lot
2
of dollars out there:
As for our GLD tracker charts, they flash a negative signal this week but they are a lagging
GLD gold holdings, 2020 to date (metric tonnes)
1300
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
indicator. The turn point in sector fortunes sees funds still on selling programs while nimbler
traders buy back in. Expect to see GLD holdings increase this time next weekend, and the ratio
number back over 7X. It is time to be bullish.
The annual call for Basket Cases
It’s that time of year again, when we put out the call for suggestions for our Copper Basket,
Producer Basket and now also the Tiny Dogs baskets for the year to come. I already have a
long list in mind for all three and as usual, some-not-all of the companies on each list will be
swapped out for others. Also as usual, I’m appreciative of suggestions from the floor because
every year sees better suggestions than I can come up with alone.
As the three baskets are somewhat different in make-up, here’s a reminder of what type of
company I’m looking for in each:
For The Copper Basket: We look for a group of 15 stocks that as a whole represent the
junior copper mining world. The maximum market cap is $1Bn, but preferably I like
3
02/1/2 02/1/21 02/1/22 02/2/1 02/2/11 02/2/12 02/3/2 02/3/21 02/3/22 02/4/1 02/4/11 02/4/12 02/5/1 02/5/11 02/5/12 02/5/13 02/6/01 02/6/02 02/6/03 02/7/01 02/7/02 02/7/03 02/8/9 02/8/91 02/8/92 02/9/8 02/9/81 02/9/82 02/01/8 02/01/81 02/01/82 02/11/7 02/11/71 02/11/72
mt 7.60 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2020 to date
7.40
7.20
7.00
6.80
6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80 source: SPDR GLD data
5.60
2/1 21/1 22/1 1/2 11/2 12/2 2/3 21/3 22/3 1/4 11/4 12/4 1/5 11/5 12/5 13/5 01/6 02/6 03/6 01/7 02/7 03/7 9/8 91/8 92/8 8/9 81/9 82/9 8/01 81/01 82/01 7/11 71/11 72/11
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
them a lot lower to better reflect our sector of interest. We welcome tinycaps, as a
cross section is required. As we’re not trying to beat the street and want a faithful
reflection of the sector, always happy to include bad copper companies or dog stocks if
they bring something to the table.
For The Producer Basket: There is no upper limit in market cap size, but we do require
a minimum market cap of U$2Bn. For this list, I’m looking for suggestions for precious
metals producers that will out-perform in 2020, because a minor game is also to try
and beat the GDX benchmark on the year.
For The Tiny Dogs: The main criterion is a maximum market cp of $20m, as we want to
reflect the market of the smallest companies. However, at this level of market cap there
are many broken stocks and dead companies with projects going nowhere; They are
not interesting, as although we cannot expect operational or managerial perfection at
this level, the company still needs to “have a pulse” and be a reasonable trade or
speculative alternative.
With luck, I’ll get to change between three and five companies on each list, so if your candidate
stocks are better than mine, fell free to drop me a line. Thanks in advance.
The IKN fundraiser for David Bhadreshwar
As most of you will recall, earlier this year we ran a fund raiser for my friend, the Pastor David
Bhadreshwar, and his church here in Peru. As well as being enormously successful (we were
looking to raise couple of thousand to cover some food parcels and help a few people in a tight
spot, David now me the total was over U$40,000), at the time I also threatened you all with a
Christmas fundraiser and now, after last week’s gentle nudge, here we are.
However, this is going to be different and we certainly do not expect to raise as much money as
before. To begin, my sincere thanks for all your donations earlier this year because it was
something of an emergency and there were, quite literally, people going hungry. The good
news is that Peru isn’t in the same situation now, it’s starting to recover and while there are
uncountable cases of poverty, at least we are not in the situation of plain emergency as there is
work happening and wages being earned now. This makes the December fundraiser different
and as such, we (David and I) have agreed on the following:
Funds raised will go to help making families happy at Christmas, not merely basic
needs. For example, part of the money raised will go towards several “chocolatadas”, a
tradition in Peru where people get together and shares hot chocolate and paneton
(sweet bread) over the period. The objective of a chocolatada is to put smiles on the
faces of people, not to save them from hunger.
Funds raised go to a food parcel, with basic needs in there but also some Christmas
goodies.
Funds raised also go to buy standard schools materials that families need to buy in
Peru, and also a 2021 wall calendar with Bible verse.
Therefore be clear, ladies and gentlemen readers of The IKN Weekly: Unlike earlier this year
when all monies were spent on secular activities, this time a portion will be spent on Christian
matters. I (we) want to be fully transparent and respect all views, but in turn I (we) must
recognize David is a Christian missionary….hey, it’s his job. And that’s the end of the pitch, if
you would like to donate, contact David via this mail address (I take no part):
davidnaomijessjack@gmail.com
As explained back in IKN583, that is David, his wonderful wife Naomi, their eldest Jess, then
Jack and the address existed before Katy was born; David and I have watched each others kids
4
grow up together. He’ll answer anything you want to know about the church, its status and
affiliations, the work they do and the places they cover. As for donations, he has a US dollar
bank account number if required but I’m not putting that in a report, he can provide details. An
easier and quicker way to donate is via PayPal and his PayPal address is also that mail
address…
davidnaomijessjack@gmail.com
…but you can also use his AT address on PayPal
@DavidBhadreshwar
There are other methods of getting money to him, he knows those. I personally remain strictly
separate from the money side, but I’m happy to help/advise/answer queries if required. Finally,
to accompany today’s fundraiser, I asked the nicest person I have ever met for “Half a page of
A4 and two or three photos”. David sent over half a page of A4 and fourteen photos and it’s
impossible to edit, so here you are:
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
"May you make a hard dart at the darkness with whatever light you bring,
reflecting, like the moon, a light far brighter than your own." S. D. Smith
Food and aid distribution costs someone, somewhere. I am amazed by the
logistical achievement of supplying so much, and in large measure owing to
IKN subscribers.
Locally. Each Thursday my wife and her team prepare and distribute
generous packs to the vulnerable. We are preparing resources for children not
in any kind of supervised education.
In Lima. Six communal kitchens (each @50 people) have been regularly
supplied, as have hundreds of food bags to folk whose income generating
ability has been decimated.
Beyond Lima. Using trusted partners (occasionally delivering it ourselves!)
food and encouragement has made it to Arequipa, Tacna, Pucallpa, Huacho,
San Lorenzo de Quinti.
Has it made a difference? Two recent experiences: The first was visiting a
couple sent to help a pastor and a church in Tacna (2 hour flight away). I
heard many happy and tearful testimonies of food arriving when people had
nothing. Aurelio was key to distributing food to the destitute. He’s a builder
and the quarantine meant 4+ months with no income. I enjoyed a delicious
meal prepared in his new clay oven - it was sobering to learn my friend and
his wife needed to scour the garbage for firewood during the lockdown.
The second was a series of “Thankyou” videos I received yesterday from
parents of children connected to a school nearby. We know the teacher, and
she identified families most at risk. To hear each story was quite something.
Christmas campaign. We have contacts all over Peru to distribute over 1200
food and Christmas parcels (foodstuffs/ seasonal food goodies/ 2021 Bible
verse wall calendar/ exercise books and pencils).
Thank you, and may you have a very happy Christmas season.
For you know the grace of our Lord Jesus Christ, that though he was rich, yet
for your sake he became poor, so that you by his poverty might become rich.
2 Corinthians 8:9 ESV
5
6
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
MENE Inc (MENE.v): Bet the jockey and the horse (in CAD$ unless specified)
Last week, the online retailer of 24 karat gold jewelry we have quietly followed for a couple of
years, Mene Inc (MENE.v) and I am not putting the Aramaic accent over the vowel, filed its
3q20 financial results (1). They were a significant improvement we’ve seen on anything so far
from this company and as a result, today’s main fundies section isn’t going to be on a mining
company, is it not an extended table-bang on copper, nor is it on the prospects for gold.
Instead we look at a company that for the last three years has been buying gold, adding
jewelry value and selling it to its final retail owner. We last looked at MENE.v in IKN579 dated
June 28th 2020, a brief note in ‘Market Watching’ that registered the annual results just filed by
the company. On that day and with sales still not reaching the level required for breakeven, we
summed up the quarter by stating in IKN579 things like, “So far MENE is still a great idea that
isn’t working, the problem is lack of scale.” Or, “Easy to pass on MENE until further notice.” It
so happens that “further notice” is today, because Q3 likely marks the period at which MENE
stopped being a great idea and started becoming a great business.
Today’s note on MENE is a two-parter:
1) We look at the horse. That’s a number crunch on the MENE.v 3q20 financials as we
consider their ramifications.
2) We look at the jockey. An investment in MENE is an investment in Roy Sebag and for
my money, he’s a fantastic bet.
The horse: We begin with the company’s Q3 and why it makes pleasant reading. Here’s the
first piece of the puzzle and Q3 sales came to C$5.423m, a new quarterly record. Tellingly, it
beat the MENE 4q19 sales number of C$5.157m by the right amount, indicating that Q2’s drop
was all Covid-19:
MENE:v: Revenues and gross profit, per qtr
5.42
5.16
4.65
3.51 3.44
3.22
2.73
2.46
1.99
1.39
1.04
7
71.0 32.0 12.0
89.0
86.0 06.0
00.1
04.1
10.1 29.0
85.1
C$m
6.0
5.5 revenues
5.0 gross profit
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1q18 2q18 3q18 4q18 1q19 2q19 3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20
source: company filings
We include gross profit in this chart, which from the beginning has shown profit. The MENE
definition of gross profit is revenues minus raw COGS, once that is subtracted we then see
another round of operating expenses before we arrive at a more realistic figure for the MEN E
day-to-day. Here, the two costs are aggregated:
MENE.v: Costs breakdown
8
976.1868.0 424.1361.1
998.1
777.1
757.1
725.2
255.2
450.2
38.1
159.1
867.1
465.2
997.2
557.3
127.1
441.4
582.1
125.2
133.1
548.3
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3
$m
COGS operating exp
source: company filings,IKN ests
At this point, we can subtract both costs and arrive at Operating Income. The result is this:
MENE.v: Operating income, per qtr
C$m
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
1q18 2q18 3q18 4q18 1q19 2q19 3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20
source: company filings
MENE.v turned an operational profit for the first time ever last quarter. As this next chart
shows, net revenue was still a slight loss but getting to a positive bottom line is now only a
matter of time and correct execution.
MENE.v: Net revenue, per qtr
C$m
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
-3
-3.5
-4
1q18 2q18 3q18 4q18 1q19 2q19 3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20
source: company filings
The key to the recent improvement has been as much the company’s cost cutting measures as
the extra sales. Regarding sales, this straight line of Kilos sold shows the Q3 improvement
clearly.
MENE: Precious metals sales in Kg, per qtr
60 53 56
50
50 44
39
40
30
20
10
0
3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20
source: MENE, IKN ests
)tP
ronim
htiw(
uA
gK
As for costs, the main reductions have come from its advertising budget and G&A, we will now
spend time on both. Back when they started, MENE would regularly spend 750k or 800k on
their online advertising campaigns. This chart takes in the back end of 2018, then shows how
MENE has cut its advertising spend while improving sales.
MENE.v: Advertising expenses, per qtr
C$m
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
3q18 4q18 1q19 2q19 3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20
source: company filings
They’ve clearly got better at this. Check the MD&A and you will learn that “…(t)he large
reduction in advertising and promotion expense year over year is due a reduction in
expenditure on online marketing”, and that these days advertising costs “…consist of fees
incurred in online marketing campaigns, gifts of jewelry and issuance of promotional gift
vouchers.” Gone is the bludgeon method of advertising (Google?), MENE has zeroed in on the
personal approval it gets from customers (that 65% repeat business number is most
impressive) and is using a smarter campaign of personal sales and high-level influencers. Not
for nothing is supermodel and fashion business mover/shaker Anja Rubik on the board of
directors, plus deep connections with the Picasso family allows MENE to market itself to an
exclusive, high-end audience. This is happening behind the scenes, adding effective word-of-
mouth viral advertising and “Keeping Up With The Joneses” peer pressure to mix centred on a
high quality, high ticket price range of products that appeal to HNW individuals. Proof of that is
the MENE reported 65% return rate for customers, the stuff that successful retail businesses
are founded upon.
Moving to G&A cost savings, Covid-19 has surprised MENE by revealing it doesn’t need to have
its people constantly traveling to be a successful business. In Q3, G&A costs dropped by 62%
compared to the same period in 2019 and so far this year, the total G&A bill of C$339,750 is
down by 46% compared to the first three quarters of 2019. Most of the savings are in travel
costs and if there ever were a company that made good use of Zoom, it’s this one. Here are
four lines from the MD&A, a sober commentary on seismic shifts in business due to the
pandemic.
General and administrative – General and administrative expenditures consist of cost relating to
operating the corporate office such as rent, office supplies, insurance, travel costs, and
subscriptions to various services. The decrease of $148 thousand or 62% compared to Q3 2019
is primarily due to lower travel expenses caused by travel restrictions imposed by COVID-19
Sales are up, costs are lower and we can now expect MENE to go cash flow positive, and
strongly so, in 4q20. That’s the easiest of predictions, as FCF almost made it to positive in Q3
and the only block being the U$4.265m of inventory added. The nature of the MENE sales cycle
is around the Holiday Season, with the
MENE: Inventories per qtr Supplies
Christmas period providing nearly 40% of C$m Finished Goods
18 Work in Prog
precious metals jewelry sales in the USA,
16 Raw Mat.
according to the US DoT. In the run-up, the
14
company must invest in the metal it requires 12
to sell extra units. Here we see quarterly 10
8
fluctuations in inventory and that MENE had
6
already converted plenty of that 24k gold (and
4
platinum) into finished product by September 2
30th, ready for shipping. 0
4q18 1q19 2q19 3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20
9 source: company filings
MENE is one of the lucky ones in the Covid-19 lottery, a company in the right place at the right
time with a 100% online sales system. It has seized the change in retail habits with both hands
and its model is proving to work, but the milestone of reaching operating profit has been
achieved, rather than handed to the company. Serendipity in timing perhaps, but this small
tracker showing “negative free cash flow going positive”
this quarter is a better commentary on the business plan
at MENE, they’ve been working toward this moment and
it perhaps came one quarter earlier than expected. But
that’s all.
At this point in the company’s development, balance
sheet items are not particularly instructive. Assets have
found equilibrium at around C$35m, liabilities have crept
up very slight in recent quarters and now total
C$21.284m.
This leaves equity (a reasonable proxy to working capital) at C$12.197m.
22 MENE.v: Equity per qtr
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
10
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3
source company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
MENE: % gap to FCF+, per qtr
70
60 59.2
50 46.2 46.0
40 40.7
35.0 30 25.7 29.0
20
18.1
10 12.1 9.6
0
-4.8 -10
The only outstanding issue in balance sheet items is the $10m debt payable on March 8th 2021.
This is half of a $20m loan made to the company on easy terms (3% annual interest, plus some
warrants which recently lapsed unexercised), with the first $10m paid back in March this year.
MENE needs to come up with the cash and is likely to be able to do so, however the loan is
clearly easily altered (they have already deferred payments once) and there will be no surprise
to see either all or part of the outstanding amount booted forward another year. With $12m in
equity and $10m to pay back, at first sight the books may look tight but MENE is also going to
get its best quarter for profits between now and then. Add in the relaxed nature of the creditor,
there is nothing to stop MENE on this count.
Finally on balance items, MENE has 244.609m shares out, its total having crept up a by a
couple of million of the last two years from the normal style of small derivate blocks being
exercised. In essence its share count is stable. That puts the market cap at C$154.1m, around
U$123m at house forex (0.8 to 1). Please recall that some 137m of shares are the freely trading
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3
%
source: IKN calcs from MENE data
MENE.v: Assets, per qtr
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3
MENE.v: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
$m 40
cash inventories ST Inv other 35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
source: company filings, IKN ests
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
note payable
other liab
borrowings
Class B, while 106m (and change) are the Class A voting shares, held tightly and mostly by
company founder and CEO, Roy Sebag.
The Jockey: We now move to the second or our two parts and consider the central figure at
MENE.v, Roy Sebag. Already a rich man, first due to successful market investments and then
participation in (what is now) Goldmoney Inc, head of MENE.v inc and principle shareholder Roy
Sebag has clearly set his ambitions on becoming very rich, not just rich and he has chosen
MENE.v as his vehicle.: Not by chance does CEO Sebag own not just the majority of shares, but
his are mostly Class A weighted voting shares that mean his decisions at MENE.v are and
always will be final. For example, any aggressor wanting to buy out MENE before Sebag’s time
or price will get short shrift, this company is structured the way the Benavides family structures
BVN and control is undisputed.
I have interacted with CEO Sebag on and off over the last decade or so (ever since he nailed a
great trade and we talked over his reasoning) and have watched his progress quietly from the
sidelines. He first came up on my radar from his interest in the mining sector, but that seems to
have been transitory (I cannot blame him, no reason to hang around entrenched people) and,
to cut a long story short, is now one of the most impressive new young business figures to have
appeared anywhere. In my dealings with him he has always been honest and sincere, never
afraid to talk over weak points or issues in his companies. He is promotional but not in a
dishonest way. For example, when he tells me that the “establishment” of jewelry retail (e.g.
Tiffany, LVMH etc) has told him to his face they don’t like MENE on the scene (i.e. they feel
threatened), it’s credible.
His financial brain is second to none, something Roy Sebag demonstrated to my satisfaction
when taking a short position in Tesla during the TESLAQ stock battle period. We talked the
trade at the time and it doesn’t even matter that he picked the wrong side and that Elon Musk
got through his tight financial moment, telling was the way in which Sebag understood the
yawning debt trap and understood the math that would have swamped any normal company.
We could speak in financial shorthand and at times, I needed to concentrate and check
numbers to keep up with him. I also believe Sebag will achieve his goal of becoming very rich,
his probable destiny includes membership of the world Billionaires Club and in MENE.v, he is
offering us an opportunity to get rich (though perhaps not quite as) alongside him. Now is the
chance to take a long-term position because it gives an opportunity to buy equity in his person,
not just his company.
This is because we should leave 2020 sales, growth and financial results aside for one moment
and consider what I believe to be the longer-term strategy of Sebag. Creating a brand is tricky,
creating a high-end luxury brand even more difficult but with repeat orders and word-of-mouth
advertising, MENE had already made it to first base. Now, it’s at second because it is now a
profitable entity and can sustain itself. We have a company selling luxury, high ticket price
goods to high-end, exclusive audience. It’s doing so by word of mouth and it’s connected with
the right type of wealthy and influential sponsors, which MENE now recognizes as its most cost-
effective advertising method. In future quarters, when the advertising budget ramps up again
toward U$750k per quarter, they will be duplicating and tripling channels they use today, not
going back to less effective methods. This is MENE.v today, the opportunity to invest in the
small company that has started to eat the lunch of big companies, has proven its model and is
set to grow faster in the next years. First base is to sell, get repeat orders, show a gross margin
on operations. Second base is financial stability for the company and that is now assured. From
here sales grow, but the vital element is the building of a luxury brand that in itself could be
worth untold millions of dollars. Set aside the sales in Q3, even my predictions in Q4, consider
the goodwill asset value that comes from the word “Tiffany”, a company that won’t be able to
buy MENE out because one of the brightest new stars in the business scene controls his
company and will not sell out. It made an operating profit for the first time ever last quarter, its
business model surprising to the upside thanks to Covid-19. Also consider how consumer
barriers to buying expensive items online have fallen like bowling pins in 2020 which increases
the number of potential real customers for MENE, not just those who browse the web but fear
11
putting credit card numbers into it or receiving goods that are “not the same as the photo”.
MENE.v’s impressive 65% repeat business rises in importance at this point, it means people are
getting what they ordered and they like the product. It means the brand around “Mene” is built
faster and worth more. Sebag is more intelligent than me, a better businessman than me,
better looking than me and younger than me. Luckily we have different life ambitions, else I
may be jealous . In short, he checks all the boxes in what you want as the next business
magnate.
Conclusion
Once upon a two years ago, I asked CEO Sebag why he had structured the public corporation
the way he had, with his tight control of voting via the Class shares. He answered that after
being involved in Goldmoney and watching how control can be wrested from one person to
another, as Mene was is best ever idea he was making sure he would keep it. I took note. Not
long after that, the soft coverage started in 2018 because…
1) If Roy Sebag’s obvious ambition is to become very rich
2) He is a very intelligent and successful businessman already
3) He considers this is best ever idea
4) He is determined to remain in control of his best idea
…it means he considers this his vehicle to he ranks of the super rich, the 0.1%. I believe he has
every chance in doing that and in buying shares in MENE today, we get to ride coattail on
Sebag while he does all the hard work. To this point I’ve kept watching brief on MENE/Sebag,
first its business model had to deliver and get to self-sustainable, then be ready to deliver
increasing profits as business expands without the need for extra debt or equity dilution. In a
combination of 2020 luck and timing, plus continued tweaking of the company model until it
reaches the point of best bang-per-buck (prime example advertising), MENE has arrived at that
point. It went public in November 2018, which means this two year chart covers all we need to
know about the stock price action:
Once it had settled down, MENE became a 60c stock, fluctuating to 50c and 70c. In all that
time there were still several serious question marks above MENE, it was leaking cash all
through while tweaking the model and pushing for the growth needed to break even. This is
the cherry on the cake because, that where we find ourselves today, the opportunity to buy
into the de-risked company that merely needs to execute on its model to succeed for the same
price as when I was the doubting onlooker.
It feels as though I have accidentally stumbled across this opportunity. It’s not the sector of
interest for this publication, the link is tenuous (we look for gold miners, it is a gold seller) and
for those with the memory, what’s more I only picked up on the stock and started talking about
it in early to mid 2018 because of 1) the interminable inertia in the price of gold that continued
until mid year when the market finally woke up, and 2) my appreciation for Roy Sebag. Earlier
this year it was all-but dropped from soft coverage here at the Weekly, so this report today is
also an opportunity to draw the line under previous opinions about MENE held here at The IKN
Weekly. Expect a headline-making Q4 sales figure from MENE.v it is in the perfect storm
12
position. That will give us our first net profit and while it’s unlikely to be able to deliver bottom
line green ever quarter of 2021, in 12 months’ time analysts will be considering pricing its 20X
to $20m future earnings. This is not a natural resources company with a finite resource and
heavy DD&A line items to contend with, it is a refreshing change for this author to cover (what
is almost a normal balance sheet . And this is the type on multiple that MENE could easily
demand in one year’s time, it checks the boxes as a fast growing, profit-making, online, luxury
item and its even a budding brand with its own corporate value. The blue sky upside is
illustrated by the recent acquisition of Tiffany (TIF) by LVMH for around U$15.5Bn. We wouldn’t
need that sort of run in the next five years of MENE, though…just 10% of that would be
enough. I am a buyer of MENE in the days to come and I expect to add to the position and hold
shares in the company for years to come. This is my opportunity to get in on the ground floor
with one of the potential stars of the future business firmament and with the company now
financially stable, the odds are stacked in our favour. I am a buyer next week and as for
coverage of the stock, I will probably add a new line to the ‘Stocks to Follow’ to separate it from
other recos. MENE Inc is different to our normal focus, but that makes it no less compelling.
Stocks to Follow
Of the 16 stocks open this time last week, we saw nine winners (RIO.v, F.v, NGD, TMQ,
CMMC.to, RYR.v, AUL.v, TORO.v, TK.v), one stock unchanged (KUYA.cse) and six losers (MAI.v,
NOM.cse, GBR.v, MIN.to, ORE.v, MIRL.cse), which isn’t a good win/lose ratio when the
benchmarks to our sector such as GDX (up 3.16%) or GDXJ (up 4.05%) were in bullish mode.
To the bright side, all the big moves were to the upside such as Trilogy (TMQ up 13.6%), Royal
Road (RYR.v up 12.7%), New Gold (NGD up 10.4%) and two or three other decent 8% or 9%
movers.
With the sale of Tinka Resources (TK.v) we are left with 15 open positions in our list, we are
back to our self-imposed maximum and that is a good thing. Eleven are in the green and four
are in the red, that’s a better ratio than last week’s near-term result.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.66 214.3% New $1.14 tgt Aug'20 #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.86 3.6% $1.58 tgt, bot again Nov'20
Recommended stocks (In order of preference)
Fiore Gold F.v STR BUY C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.49 52.0% $2.00 target, small growth PM
New Gold NGD STR BUY U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.02 165.8% 3q20 tgt $2.80 confirmed
Norsemont Mining NOM.cse STR BUY C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.96 -38.1% Add 3rd time, for 2021 run
Great Bear Res GBR.v STR BUY C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$16.67 5.3% M&A major tgt, added IKN590
Trilogy Metals TMQ STR BUY U$1.78 15-Sep-19 U$2.00 12.4% Permit received. Holding thru
Excelsior Mining MIN.to STR BUY C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.99 6.5% added Nov'20, catch-up Cu play
Copper Mountain CMMC.to STR BUY C$1.34 22-Nov-20 C$1.63 21.6% New Cu trade, momentum
Royal Road Min. RYR.v BUY C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.31 100.0% Good progress in Nica
Orezone ORE.v STR BUY C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$0.91 15.2% Now in news period, trade buy
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse spec buy C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.15 29.5% new Peru Ag jr w/good plan
Aurelius Res AUL.v spec buy C$0.075 28-Jun-20 C$0.06 -20.0% 1st assays promising, spec buy
Pucara Gold TORO.v wait to add C$0.80 4-Oct-20 C$0.77 -3.8% Will add at under 65c
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.16 -17.9% hold until further news
Short positions
no current short positions
13
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for some notes on our covered stocks:
Excelsior Mining (MIN.to), Trilogy Metals (TMQ), Copper Mountain (CMMC.to):
ADDING: As noted above and in The Copper Basket today, I plan to use most of the funds
raised from the sale of TK and add to my currently open positions in copper companies. PS:
Trilogy has a webinar scheduled for Wednesday December 9th at 4:05pm, free registry for the
event on this link (2).
Tinka Resources (TK.v): POSITION CLOSED: For what it’s worth, my final closing average
was closer to 20c than 19.5c, but there’s no way I can keep looking at a blob of green next to
this trade in the long-term records. After all this time, to claim a victory would be Pyrrhic at
best, devious more like. So we closed out TK on receipt of its first drill results of the season as
planned and for the first time in many years, Tinka Resources is not my problem.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): This time last year, in IKN550 dated December 8th, The IKN Weekly
ran its main event on Top Pick Minera Alamos (MAI.v) in light of new information received. It
was a 24c stock at the time and in the piece, we upped the 12 month target to 62c. A pity they
aren’t all this easy, but please be clear MAI
isn’t about to stop now and the stock is still a
Top Pick for its future prospects, not out of
simple habit or due to its past performance.
New Gold (NGD): NGD took more of a
beating than most of its peers in the recent
sector retracement, so it was good to see it
spring hard as the market turned, a sign of
corporate health.
14
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): First a comment about trading in MIRL as on the week, the market
was fair judge. The liquidity we noted last week the CSE trading has allowed those who want to
make adjustments (buy or sell) to do so, inside a loose-ish but reasonable trading range. For
example, if you absolutely wanted out you could have sold yours at 14.5c and 15c all week, at
that price the market is telling us the risk/reward works (until further notice) and there’s
enough public interest to make it work. And seeing healthy bid/ask in the stock for most of the
week was a positive.
Now for news; It sounds conceited and is not meant to be, but I can’t shake the feeling The
IKN Weekly is now the tail that wags the MIRL dog. This week, the development on deck is how
CEO Benavides has decided that a 43-101 is now what they need with all urgency. To that
effect, he is apparently (the word always required these days for MIRL) hiring a team to take
the current data Ollachea and bring it up to 43-101 standard. This will allow the company to
publish an updated 43-101 as quickly as possible and we understand the team will be led by
Mining Plus, a good thing as that company knows the project backwards and designed the
current mine plan. That plan wasn’t to 43-101 because Mining Plus wasn’t mandated for one,
but the work they did was to their usual high standard (the Lima office of MP has a high
reputation locally), there’s enough data to move forward either with no new drilling or with a
limited amount required, and QA/QC at MIRL was always to standard, so no potential
bottleneck there either. If they moved to produce a 43-101 with no new drilling it could happen
quickly, but more likely is a limited drill program and if so, it would mean we get a 43-101 mid-
2021 (and certainly not in Q1). Let’s not meditate too long on what might have been different
had MIRL moved to produce a 43-101 resource update before December 2020. Finally, a
reminder that this week is your last opportunity to vote on the insults they call AGM resolutions.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): I met up with Top Pick RIO.v CEO Alex Black for a coffee this week and we
talked about Peruvian politics more than anything, but I can confirm he is fully confident that
the upcoming financing for the Fenix project will be successful and please all stakeholders. He’s
also lost a few kilos over the last few weeks and looks fit and healthy, no small thing for the
year ahead. Considering the small team nature of our sector, many other CEOs in the mining
industry would be wise to consider their personal health more carefully.
Aurelius Resources (AUL.v): The similarities between Aurelius Resources (AUL.v) and Great
Bear Resources (GBR.v), another current open position, are why I’m happy to take a shot at
this high risk pennycrapper:
Exploreco working Canada
Currently drilling gold prospect
Funded until 2022
Now for sure the pay grades are different: Great Bear planned around 110,000m of diamond
drilling for 2020 and (last time of checking) five rigs were turning on site and a couple expected
to join the program over the winter months. Also. those rigs are also mostly focused on
delineation rather than discovery, as GBR moves toward its maiden resource for Dixie in 2021.
Finally, current GBR treasury is IKN estimated at C$41m, so the whole exercise is on a greater
scale and on a prospect that’s already shown its world-class potential. AUL gives us potential
exposure to the skyrocket moves that happen when a small exploreco hits pay dirt. Trade
decisions are essentially risk management decision and it’s always a play-off between high risk
and high reward at the very small end of our sector. In this one, the current chare price, the
stocked treasury and the drill program which is set to continue into 2021 give asymmetric
reward chances, which is why I am here.
The Copper Basket
After 49 weeks of 2020, The Copper Basket shows a 68.87% gain to level stakes.
15
company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Capstone Min CS.to 0.76 399.598 755.24 1.89 148.7%
2 Imperial Metals III.to 2.06 128.49 567.93 4.42 114.6%
3 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 3.38 138.905 358.37 2.58 -23.7%
4 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.45 181.52 343.07 1.89 320.0%
5 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 0.71 191.3 311.82 1.63 129.6%
6 Excelsior Min. MIN.to 1.00 238.658 236.27 0.99 -1.0%
7 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 1.625 64.358 223.97 3.48 114.2%
8 Western Copper WRN.to 1.07 107.586 172.14 1.60 49.5%
9 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.59 180.169 153.14 0.85 44.1%
10 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.28 101.85 111.02 1.09 -14.8%
11 Atico Mining ATY.v 0.31 119.023 66.65 0.56 80.6%
12 Chakana Cop PERU.v 0.245 93.2 53.12 0.57 132.7%
13 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.47 77.636 33.77 0.435 -7.4%
14 Doré Copper DCMC.v 1.25 31.798 24.17 0.76 -39.2%
15 Chibougamau CBG.v 0.17 46.695 6.77 0.145 -14.7%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 68.87%
Copper was all the rage last week and the juniors powered higher, up over 12.5% as the
speculative end of the spectrum was bought up. We did see a couple of losers, namely
Capstone (CS.to) and Excelsior (MIN.to), but they get some slack as they have both been on
big recent runs. The other 13 stocks were all winners and plenty of big percentage differences
to report as well, starting with Oroco Resources (OCO.v up 34.0%) and continuing with
Aldebaran (ALDE.v up 31.8%), Imperial (III.to up 28.1%), Chakana (PERU.v up 17.5%),
Regulus (REG.v up 13.5%), Amerigo (ARG.to up 10.4%) and Trilogy (TMQ.to up 9.8%). Big
moves that were powered by the big motor:
Late November and its $3.20/lb and $3.30/lb prices are history, last week copper pinged the
U$3.50/lb line and set off a new round of buying in anything with the word in its corporate title.
As the next two charts set out to illustrate, this is not about to stop and our weekly tracker of
The Copper Basket shows the breakout to new highs:
16
80% The Copper Basket 2020, weekly evolution
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
17
ts13ceD ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 ts1ram ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5rpa ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yam ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7nuj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5luj ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2gua ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6pes ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4tco ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1von ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6ced
source: IKN calcs
Last week this desk waxed lyrical on a 50% index move in one year, this weekend that is now
68% and under that light, we consider the historical performance of annual Copper Baskets:
Copper Basket Annual Performances, 2012 to date
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40% source: IKN
-60%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020*
The last three weeks have seen the junior copper space accelerate (i.e. I got on just in time,
phew) and we have moved away from the “2017 scenario” for copper juniors, it’s not just a
minor rally. We are now in the 2016 scenario, copper spot prices have melted up from U$3 to
U$3.50/lb in no time and all these stocks are going to get bought up. Three months ago, the
market was conducive to copper and I didn’t see it. That was my mistake, which found some
repair with the decision to add/buy to copper exposure recently when conducive became
“obvious”. We are now moving even better, away from obvious and into a perfect storm for the
metal. The powerful combination of China demand, future supply shortfall concerns, a weak
dollar and a future in which the “green economy” concept is gaining ground fast, copper fits the
bill in today’s market. As for playing our perfect storm, the best house idea for you is to buy
copper exposure. That is really all I have, the most basic sentence possible, because any of the
usual suspect stocks you choose are going to run and plenty of the tinycappers, too. My
personal choice at this point is to enhance currently open positions in the three main copper
trades currently running, the reasons are simple and potted here:
Excelsior (MIN.to): Tremendous deep value now we know the ISL works and the
gypsum is not an issue. I added recently and brought the cost average down a few
pennies, no issue at all to raise it by a couple. Anything at or around a Loonie is a
fundamental analyst’s idea of a gift-wrapped Christmas present.
Trilogy (TMQ): Sold down by instos recently, TMQ has always been a volatile trade and
needs volume to turn around. It got that last week, expect it to run as fast back up as
it recently did down.
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to): The recent new position has started well and run, which
means I will be paying up. I will do so gladly, CMMC has broken out and at current
copper prices, is suddenly a cash flow monster.
I am fully comfortable about the fundamentals of all three companies, it’s an easy and painless
decision to use them once again as the vehicle for copper. Similarly, your preferred copper
trade is likely to serve you equally as well. We move to our regular look at copper inventories,
data from Cochilco:
World copper stocks continued to drop in quieter holiday week trading, down 10,429
metric tonnes (mt) (-3.2%) to 317,706mt today.
At the SHFE, some 3,852mt (-4.0%) left stock, leaving 92,912mt this weekend. Already
at emergency low levels, there are still plenty of buyers willing to take control of
inventory reserves at these prices. As bullish signals from inventory data go, this one is
as strong as it gets and suggests more price speculation to come the week ahead.
Same story at the LME, stocks down a slight 1,100mt (-7.0%) to close Friday at
149,675mt.
And Comex makes it three out of three, another small adjustment lower here, down
787mt (-1.1%) to close the week at 73,233mt Cu.
The Shanghai-only inventories chart sees stocks stay under 100k for the third week running and
if history is our guide, the three weeks between now and Christmas are likely to draw stocks
down further.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, Dec'16 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
18
ht72 ht42 ts12 ht02 ht71 ht51 ht21 ht01 ht7guA ht4peS dn2tcO ht03 ht4ceD 7102ts1naJ ht92 ht62 ht62 dr32 ts12 ht81 ht61 ht31 ht01 ht8 ht5von dr3ced ts13 ht82 ht52 ht52 dn22 ht72 ht42 dn22 ht91 ht61 ht41 ht11 ht9 ht6naJ 9102
dr3bef
dr3ram ts13 ht82 ht62 dr32 ts12 ht81 ht51 ht31 ht01 ht8 0202ht5naj 0202dn2bef 0202ts1ram ht92 ht62 ht42 ts12 ht91 ht61 ht31 ht11 ht8 0202ht6ced
Mt Cu
source: Cochilco
Now for notes on some of our basket stocks:
Oroco Resources (OCO.v): The one I need to keep writing about in order to remind all of
how wrong, wrong, wrong I was on copper. About half way up OCO.v rise to being a tenbagger
(and if it isn’t it’s close), I haughtily and stupidly dismissed this stock as overpriced on heavy
marketing aimed at the sector naïve. The reality? I was the greenhorn and didn’t spot until late
that the world of promotion has changed, the shrill sounds of people banging on tables has
become standard practice.
OCO had another stellar week without my money on board and has become a mini leader in the
copper exploreco world. It isn’t the stock for me and I still say its market cap is way ahead of
its current status, but only by getting a few other picks right do I get away with ignoring this
trade in 2020. Not my finest moment.
Doré Copper (DCMC.v): Suddenly on everyone’s lips, DCMC has turned on the marketing
engine and has picked up sell-side coverage with Paradigm opening on them with a Spec Buy
rating and $1.60 target. Paradigm view DCMC as an opportunity to buy into a near-term
producer, I see an even nearer-term round of financing about to happen so until that is out the
way, those of you looking to buy the best momentum copper plays should look elsewhere.
It is at the right price to speculate, however. DCMC comes with plenty of industry names on
board (Ernie Mast will surely be happier in Canada than Constancia) and is bound to pick up
radar. However, my idea of a regional play...
Chibougamau Independent Mines Inc. (CBG.v): …is more this one, CBG has good, early
stage copper mineralization to explore and a
large land package. With DCNC and others
moving in the Chibougamau locality now, there’s
some camp momentum building too. Good for
areas plays such as CBG, also good for a Quebec
that wants to (re)build a copper mining industry
in the area.
While I add to my current copper positions in
TMQ, MIN.to and CMMC.to this week, the place
I’d consider adding a new copper stock would be
at the very high risk end, in companies such as
CBG with tiny market caps and the potential to
see land asset re-rating take the stock higher
without lifting a finger.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): ARG continues its surge, as even a company as badly run as
this makes money when, after all its unnecessary operating and financial drag, it needs a grand
total of U$2.50/lb to produce a pound of copper and can sell it the very next day for $3.50/lb.
Regulus Resources (REG.v): REG got a decent rebound from its negative news and action of
the week before, the copper price managing to raise the boat. In the note “Regulus Resources
(REG.v) and Einstein’s theory of madness” in IKN582, dated July 19th, we featured
correspondence from REG CEO Black which outlined company strategy for the rest of the year.
Here is the excerpt:
“In summary, this will be our approach going forward:
1) Improve our outreach to potential new investors, particularly influential high net-
worth investors that have large retail followings or institutional investors that are willing
to purchase on the open market and now have inflow of funds to allow them to do so.
2) Get the news flow reactivated on the project. Drilling will recommence in late August
or early September and we believe this will be a key catalyst to draw interest to
Regulus as we get back to work and put the first holes into then promising targets to
the north.”
The initial share price move we saw after that mail, boosted along the way by the news that
drilling was underway again, closely matches the above strategy. This also indicates who has
been selling recently, which is not good. As I think REG is hiding its principle corporate
weakness from the market (this a company that insisted it would talk about any perceived
weaknesses in order to relieve them), until such time as we know BVN’s true plans this is not a
good way to play the copper boom, the fat tail risk is too great.
19
The Producer Basket
After 49 weeks of 2020, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 24.10% to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out Mkt Cap (Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 43.45 819.84 48.73 59.44 36.8%
2 Barrick GOLD 18.59 1779.04 41.74 23.46 26.2%
3 Franco-Nevada FNV 103.30 188.6 24.63 130.57 26.4%
4 Agnico Eagle AEM 61.61 238.985 16.50 69.06 12.1%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.74 1253.5 9.03 7.20 51.9%
6 Royal Gold RGLD 122.25 65.375 7.21 110.27 -9.8%
7 Pan American PAAS 23.69 209.61 6.41 30.58 29.1%
8 B2Gold BTG 4.01 1025.75 5.92 5.77 43.9%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 6.02 391.19 3.42 8.74 45.2%
10 Buenaventura BVN 15.10 254.19 3.04 11.97 -20.7%
Prices in U$, NYSE/NASDAQ tickers Portfolio avg 24.10%
It wasn’t all one-way traffic, with last week’s stalwart defensive FNV a loser and other defensive
plays such as Royal Gold (RGLD up 0.27% week-over-week) underperforming peers. No matter,
it was an excellent rebound week for the basket and the bonus prize is to stretch our lead over
the GDX benchmark to 3.51%. But it’s still looking as though we’re a wash on the year, at
around 5% the lead would start to become enough gap to matter in real terms. Not before.
The 2020 Producer Basket: Percentage difference between
GDX benchmark and basket (negative = IKN basket ahead)
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
-6.0%
-7.0%
-8.0%
20
ts13ceD ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 ts1ram ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5rpa ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yam ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7nuj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5luj ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2gua ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6pes ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4tco ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1von ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6ced
source: IKN calc, NYSE/Nasdaq data
One thing that sticks out about the above tracker chart, how the only periods in which our list
was under versus GDX were at the points of highest volatility, namely 1) the first weeks of the
year 2) the Covid-19 crash period and 3) the top of the Full Bull Gold run. Aside from those
periods, our little list has quietly out-traded the GDX even with BVN on board.
The 2020 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
60%
comparative to GDX control
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
21
ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 ts1ram ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5rpa ht21 ht91 ht62 r3yam ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7nuj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5luj ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2gua ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6pes ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4tco ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1von ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6ced
basket
gdx control
source: Google, IKN calcs
Buenaventura (BVN): This week BVN heard (3) it had lost its appeal in the Peru courts
against a tax bill presented to it by the Peruvian tax office for the years 2007 and 2008. BVN
must pay S/1.567Bn Soles (approx U$435m) and has asked that it may be paid over the next
six years in monthly or quarterly quotas. Also this week, BVN shares rose 10.1% on strong
volume and of our list, easily the best price performance of the week. It’s fair to say that the
tax bill news didn’t shock the market.
The Tiny Dogs
Here are our ten and after thirty-nine weeks, the average is up by 39.26%:
Company ticker price 16/2/20 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 136.26 5.45 0.04 -38.5%
2 Chakana Copper PERU.v 0.175 93.2 53.12 0.57 225.1%
3 Constantine Met CEM.v 0.19 45.35 8.16 0.18 -5.3%
4 Contact Gold C.v 0.175 84.472 8.45 0.10 -42.9%
5 Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.065 230.79 11.54 0.050 -23.1%
6 Salazar Res* SRL.v 0.18 126.55 39.86 0.315 75.0%
7 Radius Gold RDU.v 0.235 86.94 22.60 0.26 10.6%
8 Red Pine Expl RPX.v 0.035 477.22 19.09 0.04 14.3%
9 Warrior Gold WAR.v 0.055 68.2 6.48 0.095 72.7%
10 Wolfden Res WLF.v 0.13 129.532 27.85 0.215 65.4%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV (*SRL price from May 2nd) basket avg 39.26%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list that represents what’s going on in the
whole sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks.
Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
A welcome relief rally week for the tinycap stocks as well, as witnessed by the 7.1%
improvement in our Tiny Dogs basket average on the week. There were three losers (C.v,
SRL.v, RDU.v) and two stocks were unchanged (BAY.v, RPX.v) which leaves five winners
(PERU.v, CEM.v, MTU.v, WAR.v, WLF.v) and of those, the best moves came from Chakana
Copper (PERU.v up 17.5%) and Wolfden Resources (WLF.v up 13.2%), coincidentally the two
noted stocks from last weekend.
Manitou Gold (MTU.v): Last mentioned in this segment four weeks ago when the current
drilling started, this company could fit the bill if you are looking to run spec trades on drill holes
this month. The 12 month chart indicates how MTU has swung and missed at a couple of drill
programs already this year but they are now
back at the well, undeterred. The C$4.2m,
fully funded drill program at MTU’s Goldreau
target (near Wawa ON) kicked off one month
ago (4) and as the program includes many
(relatively short holes (150m or less) we
shouldn’t be too far from the first assays and
results NR, especially if they hit good rock
(as good news travels on the express train).
There are no guarantees of success and if
you are not aware of the high risk and the
high reward scenario that is buying drill plays
in timing windows, you shouldn’t be reading
these words. With results likely to start
flowing soon and running through to the end
of 1q21, you are betting that a U$10m tiny dog hits some nice mineral but the downside at 5c
and 6c is limited (to maybe half your money), while the potential upside is the reason we buy
these tinycappers.
Wolfden Resources (WLF.v): Featured in a short blurb for the third week running, the ten
day chart of the stock shows the fractured nature of trading in the stock. After doing little or
nothing early week, one buyer at 20c on Wednesday was enough to set the tone and Friday
saw a few buyers add in, but it’s evidently fragile price action and if one buyer can move the
stock 20% up, so can one seller in the other direction.
I only have disparate pro/con thoughts over WLF: The cynic in me calls WLF, “A decent spec
trade on zinc, if that’s something you really want in your life.” Totally unfair, but it puts the
juxtaposition in the spotlight and the way we need to value it as a going concern on its project
value at reasonable baseline Zn prices, but in the meanwhile its stock market rises and falls as
a speculative leverage to the metal. While the company will represent it is willing to take the
project through to production, the only real exit is a buyout and the potential number of
purchasers is limited, which in turn limits the eventual buyout price to NAV. Still, there’s no
denying that if zinc really zooms from here, this could provide sector-leading leverage.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It is possible that in the
future I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, but at the moment both my opinion and my wallet are strictly
neutral.
Regional politics
The copper price rescues Chile
Trade figures out this week for the month of November show Chile managing to record a Year-
over-Year increase in exports of 1.3%, compared to November 2019. This is almost entirely due
to the 1.4% increase in metals exports, which covered 54.3% of all exports from the country.
Inside that number is the true extent on which Chile leans on copper, as that single metal
provides 87% of all metals export dollars. As for destinations, you will be unsurprised to learn
Chile’s major export markets in November 2020 were China (36.3% of all dispatches), The USA
(14.2%) and Japan (8.8%).The result is the strongest regional currency:
22
In 2020, the Chilean Peso has lost just 1.5% against the USD and since the Covid-9 crash, has
strengthened against the world reserve currency by 14%. Compare that to the YTD
performances of similar large metals export states such as Peru and its Sol (PEN down 8.5% vs.
USD) or Brazil and its Real (BRL down 30% vs. USD).
Chile: The success of the new insurance law for mining
We have followed this development off and on here on these pages, not least because of our
Top Pick stock Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) as it has been a proponent of the initiative and expects to take
advantage of it next year. After four months of the new Chilean laws that allows mining
companies to take out an insurance policy to cover closure costs, instead of tying up a large
amount of valuable capital in escrow, Chile’s mining minister and dog food brand Baldo
Prokurica last week commented (5) that “Policies of Insurance Guarantee as instrument to
comply with Closure Plans” have seen a take up of around U$430m. According to the data
supplied, 26 companies have used the new system, including 22 medium-scale mines and/or
projects covering around U$173m, plus four large-scale works with policies that now total
U$257m, the 26 deals coming through two Chilean domiciled insurance companies. Señor
Prokurica said the following on the news (translated):
“This law has borne fruit more quickly than we imagined. There is a lot of interest in
the formula because is liberates debt capacity, above all in medium-scale mining,
which generates better cash flow and is going to produce more knock-on effects in the
near-term.”
Argentina: Chubut may vote on mining (but likely not)
Thursday will be a big day in the regional parliament of Chubut, as the mining law project that
seeks “zonification” of the province of Chubut and thereby allow mining in a small part of it (the
bit with Pan American Silver’s Navidad project) may get its debate and vote.
As in “may”. There is much politicking going on in Chubut this week and most of it revolves
around the 27 members of parliament, who are being lobbied hard by both sides of the
argument. As things stand today (6), there are three ways in which the week ahead may go for
the mining law project in Chubut:
1) The vote goes ahead on Thursday. This would be a risky move by the pro-mining
contingent, as word from the province is that neither side is confident of victory. If the
law project is voted down, it would be (literally) years before Chubut would be able to
try a similar initiative.
2) The vote is delayed until next year. This is the safest method and gives time for
Governor Arcioni and his pro-mining camp to reinforce their arguments. However, the
national executive is pushing for resolution and does not want to wait until perhaps
mid-2021 for resolution.
3) A 20 day suspension of the debate. As things stand, this looks like the most likely
option to happen in the week ahead and will likely be decided by parliamentary
committee on Wednesday.
23
It’s not possible to make a confident prediction on a weekend for a vote on Thursday in
Argentina, but the likelihood is for the third option and the whole process being booted to
around end-year. On the other hand, if there’s positive movement for the project, expect
Governor Arcioni to move the debate to the vote on Thursday. To remind readers, this is the
best chance PAAS has had to get Navidad built.
Argentina: Inflation continues rampant
All the rage as a criticism when Cristina was President, the reason the outside world stopped
talking about Argentina’s sky-high inflation rates is that the “market friendly*” Macri
government promised and failed miserably to get it under control. From promising single digit
inflation once austerity measures had taken effect, Macri left an annual inflation rate of 53.8%
in his last year of office, 2019. As the North didn’t want to criticize their man too much, the
talking point was quietly dropped. This year in 2020 it has stayed dropped too, with the first
year of the Alberto Government getting the deflationary silver lining from the Covid-19
pandemic and local economists now forecasting this year to close at an inflation rate of
between 36.4% and 36.7, still eye-wateringly high but at last its in the right direction.
However, 2021 will be different in two ways: First, all indications are that inflation accelerates
again in Argentina. The Argentina Central Bank’s monthly survey of 42 economists (7) focused
on this question this month and the median range of forecasts is between 48.9% and 50.0%.
Which is where our interest as FDI and stock speculators is piqued, as the currency controls set
in the country will make doing business there evermore expensive under this high inflationary
environment. This weekend the official exchange rate is U$1 = 81.7 Argentine Pesos. The same
42 economists forecast rate is forecast to drop to 83 by the end of the year, then an average
forecast of P$126.5 for the end of 2021. If business could freely access that rate it would be
fine but as we now know, the strict currency controls placed on the USD in Argentina is a more
accurate representation of the real forex rate in which a business needs to operate in order to
survive. This gives rise to alternative exchange rates and the leading one is the quasi-official
(though strictly speaking illegal) “Dolar Blue”. Here’s a chart on that:
After the currency controls were slammed on, the Dolar Blue would trade at 125 to the USD.
Since then the nervy spikes you can see and a little recent calm has returned, but the rate is
still bid/150 ask/153 to the USD, or 20% deflation for the street dollar in six months. This
results in charts of mining companies such as this one:
Cash costs at Minera Santa Cruz, Argentina/qtr
(HOC 51%, MUX 49%)
1700
1600
Cash cost/oz
1500
1400 AISC
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
4q18 1q19 2q19 3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20
24
The 51% Hochschild (HOC.L), 49% McEwen Mining (MUX) Minera Santa Cruz gold/silver
operation in the eponymous Province of South Argentina is a good yardstick, its remote
distance makes for a high proportion of fixed or predictable operating costs. The more useful
line of the two is the on-site costs, which are up 55.3% in the eight quarters of that chart.
Peru: Using Quellaveco to market mining
Smart thinking somewhere in the new government structure has the national media presented
with pro-mining data, which then becomes this story (8) on how the new Anglo Quellaveco
project has already spent S/43m (U$12m) on goods and services from local suppliers as the
build-out of the mine begins. The data supplied to the reporter also notes that 362 of the
suppliers have done deals worth at least U$10,000 and a similar number of smaller businesses
have become suppliers to Quellaveco, with the average contract of those at U$6,200 approx. In
this way, government and company demonstrate to the general public how the project benefits
all strata of the country and sets up some healthy envy from other population centres with their
own projects that need moving forward.
Ecuador: Cuenca’s anti-mining referendum moves to election day
Ultimately logic prevailed and Ecuador’s CNE election body has moved the Cuenca referendum
vote from next Sunday, December 13th , to the same day as the upcoming Presidential election,
February 7th 2021. The binding referendum vote in the province uses the potential pollution of
five local rivers as the entry point to a vote to ban mining in the region. If (in fact “when”)
voted up, the law will not be retroactive and currently held concessions remain in good
standing, but the anti-mining message sent will be loud and clear, not only to the local area but
to other communities and pressure groups opposing mining projects in Ecuador (most of the
popular Ecuador-exposed juniors plenty of organized opposition that the companies never seem
to get round to talking about).
However, the date move means Pachakutik party candidate has lost one of his potential
catalysts in the current campaign, which is now beginning to take better shape and has the
three main candidates issuing their first electoral promises. For example, front runner Guillermo
Lasso told us on Friday that despite everything he has said about privatizations and his hard
neoliberal economic stance, he will happily keep Ecuador’s natural gas subsidy in place as well
as the current emergency social relief, all without raising another penny on taxes.
As for polling, the latest CEDATOS poll (nationally well known, likely biased to the right wing
and pro-Lasso) has Lasso on 23% intention, Andrés Arauz on 13% and Yaku Pérez on 10.7%.
However, the main datapoint is still the 40%+ of Ecuadorians who have not made up their
mind or will spoil their ballot.
Market Watching
Golden Minerals (AUMN) (AUMN.to) and an interesting drill NR
On Thursday December 3rd, Golden Minerals (AUMN) published this NR (9) that began in this
way:
GOLDEN, Colo., Dec. 03, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Golden Minerals Company (NYSE
American and TSX: AUMN) (“Golden Minerals”, “Golden” or “the Company”) is pleased to
announce it has completed a 3,400-meter, 15-hole drill campaign at its Yoquivo gold-silver
district-scale property in Chihuahua, Mexico.
AUMN is a ratty company that has never looked attractive as a trade vehicle for this desk, but
the nature of this NR suggests a possible trade set-up in the New Year. Not a stock to buy
before 2021, not least because there’s no reason to chase the recent price pop and pay up…
25
…the NR catches the eye because AUMN is announcing its completion. We have not heard the
name Yoquivo in any NR from the company since 2018, suddenly a completed short drill
program. This is the M.O. of those junior companies that drill their properties first, then if there
is something interesting they will announce and if not, we here in the outside world never get
to hear about it. AUMN is a serial offender on this score, so seeing it announce 15 completed
holes and 3,400m means they have found something interesting. The timing on the assay
results won’t be easy, but we’re not going to get anything else until the New Year so AUMN is a
potential early trade for January. Card marked, we move on.
Aston Bay (BAY.v) update
Further to last week’s feature on Aston Bay (BAY.v), a polite reminder not to throw your money
down the toilet. The one month chart of BAY (below left) shows the move to 4.5c on Monday
after doing business of around 4m shares, only to close the week back at 4c and UNCH.
It gets more painful when we focus on the last five days’ worth of trading (above right) and
notice the stock stayed above 4c all week bar the last trades, with spikes to 5c along the way.
That means people were paying up to 25% above the odds for shares in BAY last week, when
there was little reason to do so. Perhaps the large Monday buyer(s) were justified in paying the
extra half cent, but that’s all.
BAY.v is on my high risk/reward radar and, given the right circumstances, there’s every chance
of a trade in the near or mid-term. But come the day, I won’t be paying up out of impatience.
Episode fifty-nine of “What I’d Buy Now”
The Zombie you refuse to kill is back for another spin. First, the standard intro copy-pasted
from the previous incarnation and adjusted to bring it up to date, regulars just skip this bit. We
first dial in on the results of our picks and weightings in IKN598 and then we move to the new
choices for the next four weeks. For those just joining us here come the rules:
The feature conveys “what I like now” in my own portfolio considering the state of the market, the company particulars
and their shares prices right here and now. It has been, is and forever will be more of a thought experiment than a
26
map of how I’m trading the market (because I tend not to day-trade very much). The rules are these:
1) You give me $50,000. We assume flat forex during the time period.
2) You tell me I have to invest every dollar in currently open IKN Weekly stock picks.
3) I’m allowed to allot different dollar amounts to different stocks, from zero on up.
4) I base my decisions, choices and dollar amounts on what I think today about the company, the stock price
and the current underlying micro and macro fundamentals.
5) You know that I like all the stocks because you know I already own them, we both understand these answers
are about how I feel today about the open stock positions for the next four weeks, no more and no less.
We’ve had fifty-eight periods so far, with the segment starting as an experiment back in IKN369
and becoming a regular habit in four week segments. The latest was between IKN598 and
IKN602, here’s what happened:
Mark spends $50,000 in IKN598 Mark's $50k in IKN602
company ticker current PPS amount I'd invest today PPS today position value
Norsemont Min NOM.cse $1.46 8000 $0.96 5260
Minera IRL MIRL.cse $0.18 6000 $0.16 5333
Excelsior Mining MIN.to $0.63 6000 $0.99 9429
New Gold NGD $1.97 6000 $2.02 6152
Rio2 Ltd RIO.v $0.93 4000 $0.86 3699
Aurelius AUL.v $0.08 4000 $0.06 3000
Fiore Gold F.v $1.62 3000 $1.49 2759
Orezone ORE.v $0.93 3000 $0.91 2935
Trilogy Metals TMQ $1.72 3000 $2.00 3488
Great Bear Res GBR.v $16.56 3000 $16.67 3020
Minera Alamos MAI.v $0.78 2000 $0.66 1692
Royal Road Min RYR.v $0.405 1000 $0.31 765
Pucara Gold TORO.v $0.81 1000 $0.77 951
Total $50,000 NEW TOTAL--> $48,485
In IKN598 the call was to leave the top two in place, shave some from Minera IRL and add to
Excelsior, then spread at least a little to the other stocks. The call to re-weight toward MIN.to
and lighten MIRL.cse was the only thing I got right, but even that could bridge the gaping hole
made by the continued selling in Norsemont Mining (NOM.cse). So even though week 4/4 was
the best of the period, it wasn’t enough and the decision to remain hopeful about the bottom in
NOM killed any chances. Before moving on, it’s interesting to note that there must be a few
people having an unhappy experience with Minera Alamos (MAI.v), as unlike the vast majority
of its shareholders there must be a few people in at a 78c cost average. As that Friday four
weeks ago marked the near-term top and as MAI.v didn’t break out from its recent range, in
theory at least there are 15% bagholders in my Top Pick stock this weekend. A sobering
thought.
And now we move on, from the failure and desolation of episode fifty-eight to the wonderful,
magnificent and unassailable future of profit and great wealth that will come from today’s
episode, fifty-nine. Note below:
Mark spends $50,000 in IKN602
company ticker current PPS amount I'd invest today
Norsemont Min NOM.cse $0.96 7000
Trilogy Metals TMQ $2.00 6000
Excelsior Mining MIN.to $0.99 6000
Fiore Gold F.v $1.49 6000
Copper Mountain CMMC.to $1.63 5000
New Gold NGD $2.02 4000
Minera Alamos MAI.v $0.66 3000
Aurelius AUL.v $0.06 3000
Rio2 Ltd RIO.v $0.86 2000
Orezone ORE.v $0.91 2000
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse $2.15 2000
Great Bear Res GBR.v $16.67 2000
Minera IRL MIRL.cse $0.16 1000
Royal Road Min RYR.v $0.31 1000
Pucara Gold TORO.v $0.77 0
Total 50,000
27
Keeping the faith with Norsemont (NOM..cse) even though it’s had a rough start. There
is too much fundamental strength in Choquelimpie to ignore and the company is about
to start its awareness roll-out with new appointments to talk up.
The main change this month is the rise of copper on the board, with three of the top
five weightings being Cu-focused companies including newcomer CMMC.
Fiore Gold (F.v) gets extra weight to its line too. Of all the gold producers, this is the
one that has me scratching my head about its recent sell-off. A cash flow monster at
this market cap.
Kuya Silver (KUYA.cse) is the other debutant in this edition, but it starts at a lower
weighting than Copper Mountain mostly because it’s not moved from the $2.15 number
in weeks.
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse) drops from Number Two in the list to the bottom of the
weightings.
That’s it for this WIBN, we return to this regular feature in IKN606. As always, the message at
the end on how you shouldn’t take this section too seriously, it’s not a “Top Pick series”, all it
does is map personal near-term feel on trades that nearly always have a 12 month minimum
timeline. It’s a thought exercise more than anything else, a personal gauge of sentiment among
stocks I hold.
Conclusion
IKN602 is done, we end with bullet points:
Copper is in a perfect storm, it’s is a clear buy and the juniors provide its leverage. I
will add to my three open positions. However, copper is only one issue set to rise as
2020 becomes 2021 and the US Dollar’s weakness permeates through. Gold will benefit
and the two house Top Picks are still two gold mining developer plays. It’s not as if
copper is everything
Roy Sebag is not a mancrush, he is the opportunity to ride the coattails of an up and
coming success. MENE.v is his main vehicle, the window of opportunity to buy at these
prices will not stay around in 2021.
Minera IRL is still a burden. I still hold.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good hand-washing fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.mene.com/world-of-mene/investor-relations/mene-inc-reports-first-operating-income-and-record-
revenue-for-third-quarter-2020
(2) https://gestion.pe/economia/empresas/buenaventura-solicita-fraccionamiento-de-6-anos-para-pagar-deuda-
tributaria-por-s-1567-millones-noticia/
(3) https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/11907022593614352?source=MC
(4) https://www.manitougold.com/news/news-releases/manitou-gold-commences-drilling-at-its-100-owned-goudreau-
project
(5) https://mineriaenlinea.com/2020/12/ley-impulsada-por-el-ministro-prokurica-ha-permitido-a-las-mineras-contratar-
seguros-por-us430-millones-en-chile/
28
(6) https://www.lanacion.com.ar/economia/nuevas-proyecciones-cuanto-llegaran-dolar-inflacion-este-nid2530206
(7) https://www.adnsur.com.ar/politica/los-diputados-de-chubut-ante-la-zonificacion-minera--como-se-plantea-la-
votacion-y-hasta-donde-influye-alberto-fernandez_a5fcab19faf663060167945bf
(8) https://larepublica.pe/economia/2020/12/03/quellaveco-realizo-compras-a-proveedores-locales-por-43-millones-de-
dolares/
(9) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/golden-minerals-completes-drill-program-115000310.html
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
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Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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