IKN #599Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 599, November 15th 2020
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In today’s edition, A Covid-19 vaccine, IKN cheerleading silver.
Fundamental Analysis: Revisiting Excelsior Mining (MIN.to), Minera IRL (MIRL.cse) keeps
Ollachea.
Stocks to Follow: Kuya Silver (KUYA.case), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Norsemont Mining (NOM.cse),
Orezone Gold Corp, Cartier Resources (ECR.v), Excelsior Mining (MIN.to), Minera Alamos
(MAI.v), Tinka Resources (TK.v), Minera IRL (MIRL.cse).
Copper Basket: Overview, Imperial Metals (III.to)
Producer Basket: Overview, Buenaventura (BVN).
Tiny Dogs: Overview, Chakana Copper (PERU.v)
Regional Politics: Nicaragua gets a second major hurricane, The Peru political crisis.
Market Watching: Aurelius (AUL.v) shows early promise Mako Mining (MKO.v) places its
warrants, Kirkland Lake and Novo Resources (NVO.v), A Monday addition: Top Pick Minera
Alamos delivers at Cerro de Oro.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
“
Trade heads-up
I plan to add to my position in Excelsior Mining and, presumably, bring my cost average down
slightly. Today’s main Fundamentals section for the details.
In today’s edition
 After a black hole of non-news, the NR out of Excelsior Mining (M IN.to) last week
could not have been more welcome. We consider its implications in today’s main
Fundies section.
 Also in today’s main section, preliminary thoughts on the Minera IRL (MIRL.cse) news
of last week. Sadly, they are only preliminary at this point because the company still
insists on keeping its shareholders in the dark about its plans and projects, quite
shameful in the run-up to its AGM.
 It’s Peru’s turn for a deep political and constitutional crisis, with revolving door
Presidents, protests on the streets and all the trimmings. This edition is being sent on
Monday instead of Sunday due to what’s been happening on the streets beyond this
desk, as such we try to explain the need-to-know for outsiders looking in and get right
up to date in ‘Regional Politics’.
 Gold took the Pfizer vaccine news very well [EDIT Monday, also true for the Moderna
vaccine, 94.5% effective, announced today]
A Covid-19 vaccine
The world moved forward last week, even as President Trump began his 2024 election
1

campaign. His is the strategy of spending four years repeating evidence-free claims and taking
around half of the Republican vote with him, making him the only person who’ll be able to unite
the GOP vote next Election Day. What’s more his plan may even work, either for him or for Don
Jr., nothing surprises any longer in this race to the bottom. However and suddenly, Trump and
his Tweets are no longer driving the market (small sigh of relief) and announcements of
effective vaccines from places other than China or Russia, specifically the Pfizer release Monday
morning, took charge.
Science announced a 90% effective vaccine, Russia replied later in the week it had a 92%
effective vaccine, China says its vaccine is safe and works for practically everybody and gold
was duly whacked, of course. Xiao Fu of PBoC has the standard narrative for us, as told to
Reuters during the week, of how gold went higher due to safe haven buying into the pandemic
and further on the rising cases of Covid-19 into a second wave. With the advent of a vaccine,
there is less appetite for risk-off assets. It sounds neat and fits the numerical evidence,
however…
…if the narrative holds true, why aren’t we back at pre-pandemic prices? Gold took its inevitable
hit but, as the chart indicates, no trend lines broke and buyers soon returned. In short, it was a
good week to buy precious metals things and as that was this desk’s plan in the first place as pr
IKN598, it worked well. Your author didn’t expect such weakness this quickly, on the other
hand and on reflection any mining or precious metals sector investor with a long-term outlook
was going to have to get over the “We Are Cured” moment, it just so happens it was last
Monday. This attitude was franked as the week wore on, gold bullion took the hit well and
bounced back quickly because Xiao Fu’s standard narrative has worn too thin; We are still
awash in money supply, the Trump administration opened the spigot like no other government
even before Covid-19 arrived and once it did its solution was to open it even wider. That
liquidity needs mopping up and until the recession lifts, gold will remain popular in its safe
haven role. As the GLD chart below shows, inventories did indeed drop 26 metric tonnes (mt)
on the week to stand at 1234.32mt this weekend, but that’s a drop in the bucket compared to
2020 gains…
GLD gold holdings, 2020 to date (metric tonnes)
1400
1350
1300
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
2 800
02/1/2 02/1/21 02/1/22 02/2/1 02/2/11 02/2/12 02/3/2 02/3/21 02/3/22 02/4/1 02/4/11 02/4/12 02/5/1 02/5/11 02/5/12 02/5/13 02/6/01 02/6/02 02/6/03 02/7/01 02/7/02 02/7/03 02/8/9 02/8/91 02/8/92 02/9/8 02/9/81 02/9/82 02/01/8 02/01/81 02/01/82 02/11/7
mt
source: SPDR GLD data

…and what’s more, our tell on insto appetite for gold, the GLD Inventory/Price ratio, stayed at
the buoyant 7X line.
7.60 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2020 to date
7.40
7.20
7.00
6.80
6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80
5.60
3
2/1 21/1 22/1 1/2 11/2 12/2 2/3 21/3 22/3 1/4 11/4 12/4 1/5 11/5 12/5 13/5 01/6 02/6 03/6 01/7 02/7 03/7 9/8 91/8 92/8 8/9 81/9 82/9 8/01 81/01 82/01 7/11
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
We may or not see further selling of bullion, but less now depends on the opinions of will of a
President who is not going to stop being himself at any moment soon. Sic transit gloria mundi.
IKN cheerleading silver
This desk is not about to become a hardcore advocate for a return to previous and lower
multiples for the Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR) just
because I picked up some shares in Kuya Silver
(KUYA.cse) last week. To the brighter side,
after a period in which it told us little of
fundamental value (knowing where near-
parabolic spikes to the upside (April) and
waterfall drops to the downside (August) finish
is easy in hindsight) the GSR is back as a
reasonable indicator of the interplay between
the precious and industrial metals sectors.
Today’s 76X it offends nobody, though
silverbugs insist it lower. I will repeat my
position that silver won’t improve against gold
until the world economy is out the other side of
an artificially delayed, but inevitable, recession
and be done. However, if silver trades 76X ,
80X or even 90X with gold at U$2,000/oz I
won’t bat an eyelid about the money invested in KUYA. Company fundamentals matter too,
after all.
It is time to be bullish, my portfolio is now more exposed to precious metals than it was one
week ago. Now for some copper.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Revisiting Excelsior Mining (MIN.to)
The news out of our copper developer investment Excelsior Mining (MIN.to), pre-open Tuesday
10th (1), was close to optimum, what’s more it came as a sight for sore eyes after long months
of scant information out of the company as it de-glitched its Gunnison project. Our job today is
to first consider its news, then revisit the company numbers and adjust for new circumstances
because doubts are now dissipating around this cheap copper play.

We begin with the news, the company’s own bullet point list from the NR does the job of ticking
the boxes:
 The issue of copper precipitates and other precipitates blocking wells has been solved;
the upgrades to the wellfield implemented earlier in the year have proven effective;
 Copper grades in the wells that have been consistently operated are in-line with
expectations;
 These activities have generated sufficient copper in solution to commence operation of
the Solvent Extraction-Electrowinning (SX-EW) production facility, which has been
turned on;
 Copper cathode production is expected to commence within 30 days;
o Staffing levels remain reduced and restricted due to the COVID-19 Pandemic.
Operations have been conducted in a safe manner with only one COVID-19
case at Gunnison reported. In response, successful contact tracing and
isolation measures were implemented without any requirement to shut-down
operations;
 Expansion of activities to surrounding wells is occurring, with a view to ramping-up to
full, nameplate, capacity through 2021; and
 It is expected that additional time will be required during this ramp-up to optimize the
wells and resolve any challenges as they occur.
Regarding the last point, once again there’s no issue, this is CEO Twyerould acting to type and
taking the conservative approach. So before we get to the number crunching, a word of
appreciation is necessary as Twyerould has delivered on Gunnison in much the way he has
always promised. For sure Covid-19 has changed 2020 immeasurably, however even before
that MIN made plain that its first quarters would be potentially glitchy, but all problems were
(pardon the pun) solvable. That has turned out to be the case and overall, MIN has used the
quiet cover of Covid-19 to its advantage. In the words of the CEO:
"We are encouraged by the results of our wellfield optimization program and the team's
ability to identify and resolve issues as they arise. The upgrades to the wellfield have
proven successful; we can easily and efficiently switch back and forth between
injection and recovery for backflushing and flow reversals, and this system has shown
substantial improvement in well efficiency. After only three-months of acid injection, we
have collected enough copper to start initial production; this will allow us to commission
and evaluate SX-EW capabilities. Optimization programs are being rolled out to
additional wells and we are confident that production will be expanded over the coming
months."
All good and to make sure, the 3q20 financials and MD&A, also out last week, included a formal
line on the key potential issue of gypsum build-up and potential mine-killing clogging of the ISL
recovery units:
Results from current testing confirms that several wells have achieved acid
breakthrough, and these wells have operated continuously on recovery mode since
August, 2020 and have shown no signs of precipitates blocking or restriction of
recovery flow.
Covid-19 has changed the order of development at MIN, the company was given lemons and
made lemonade. Previously, the Phase One production stage to get to 25m lbs Cu/annum was
always the proof of concept that would allow the full investment to take place. Due to Covid-19,
MIN has had the time and opportunity to make a small area of the Phase One zone its own
proof of concept. They now know what to do, how to troubleshoot, what the wells require for
optimal performance. Previously, we expected glitchy and potentially patchy production
quarters n the first full year of production, that’s now turning into a smoother ride through to
the main investment being green-lighted.
We can now go back to our original model, one that envisages MIN.to moving Gunnison to
25mlbs per year production in phase one before debt funding (as agreed with backers) and
moving the operation to its full, 125m lbs per annum schedule. However, it’s been a while since
we considered the model and late 2020 is a different place to early 2019. First we catch up with
company fundamentals, which will then help adjust the earnings model for the eventual mine
4

and the current price target.
As for those financials, as MIN.to has mostly been in tick-over mode since we last looked, its
quarterly operations data and P+L charts are neither important nor much of a guide to the
company’s new regime as the ramp to production begins. One example of many, its net loss of
U$10.904m for 3q29 included a U$8,923 hit from the revaluation of its copper stream derivative
liability, which at this point is a non-cash price adjustment that means very little before
production begins. In other words, I only need to bore you with the balance sheet this time and
here are the assets and liabilities overviews:
MIN.to: Assets
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Those have moved forward as imagined: Long-term liabilities rise as the agreed portions of
debt arrive in good order, that adds to the cash treasury on a temporary basis before being
converted into capitalized assets. Those two charts above are case-typical and what we wanted
to see, meanwhile of we focus on liquidity…
…MIN has done a good job of keeping treasury
and working capital intact. With U$18.225m cash
at quarter end and production imminent, there’s
need to assume an extra “Tide Over” financing
round and current house share count
assumptions stay as-per. On that subject, MIN
continues to keep the structure tight, full
approval from this desk. Current exact count is
239,630,082 shares outstanding, with
Greenstone Resources owning 113,928,937
(47.54%) by way of reminder.
Re-valuing Excelsior Mining (MIN.to)
It has been a drag and an exercise in patience to own these shares, but with the news that MIN
has ironed out its glitches and will begin its re-start to production we can revisit our model and
5
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3
$m MIN.to: Debt Breakdown per qtr 120
110
fixed 100
other current 90
cash
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
source: company filings
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs
MIN.to: Cash treasury per qtr
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
50 MIN.to: Working Capital per qtr
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3
source company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
MIN.to: Shares Out
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
61q1 61q2 61q3 61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3
source: company filings/IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim

consider the target price in light of new circumstances. Firstly and while we can now expect the
process to be smoother thanks to MIN’s extended investigation time on a portion of Gunnison,
we first consider the company’s Phase One move to attain annual production of 25m lbs copper
cathode. Main assumptions are:
 Production of 25m lbs in our model year. Natch.
 Mine cash costs of U$1.50/lb, a far higher number than the eventual cash cost
estimates for the working ISL. We go conservative on this point, as there are less
opportunities elsewhere.
 The streaming deal with Triple Flag as stands, which assumes the current terms of
16.5% of production sold to Triple Flag at 25% spot.
 Share count remains at current levels, rounded to 240m
 Interest servicing of $8m annual, which is a guess and matters less (see below)
 We adjust TC/RC to 15% from our previous 10% assumption. Although the finished
product, pure cathode copper sheets, will surely be desirable and low-end TC/RC, this
model builds in more wriggle room and leaves surprises to the upside.
 Other minor items remains as-is.
As you’d expect we then apply those criteria to four copper prices to represent base-case/stress
test levels, through current scenarios and on to blue sky. First a sales number fro the model,
with the conservative parameters above allowing us to use a realistic U$3.00/lb copper price as
our preferred case:
MIN.to at Gunnison: Annual Stage One model revs by metal type (U$m)
model $2.50/lb Cu $2.75/lb Cu $3.00/lb Cu $3.25/lb Cu
Cu Mlbs 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0
$/lb at 100% market 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25
$/lb 25% (triple flag) 0.63 0.69 0.75 0.81
Cu revs (U$m) 54.77 60.24 65.72 71.20
Mining revs (U$m) 54.77 60.24 65.72 71.20
TC/RC 8.21 9.04 9.86 10.68
Total Royalties 3.25 3.25 3.50 3.75
Net sales (U$m) 43.30 47.96 52.36 56.77
Source: MIN data, IKN ests
From that estimated U$52.36m in annual top line revenues, we build a condensed income
statement:
MIN.to at Gunnison: Stage One income items for model year
At 25m lbs Cu prod $2.50/lb Cu $2.75/lb Cu $3.00/lb Cu $3.25/lb Cu
Sales (U$m) 43.3 48.0 52.4 56.8
Cash COGS 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5
Depreciation 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
SGA 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
Op income (8.4) (3.8) 0.4 4.5
Interest 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
Workers Part. (0.7) (0.3) 0.0 0.4
Tax (4.4) (3.2) (2.1) (1.1)
Net income (11.4) (8.3) (5.5) (2.8)
Shares out (m) 240 240 240 240
EPS -0.05 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01
Sust capex -8 -8 -8 -8
FCF/sh -0.06 -0.05 -0.04 -0.02
Source: MIN data, IKN ests
6

Even with costs at an inflated $1.50/lb, MIN still produces operating income and above all, back
out the DD&A because it’s the cash flow that matters in the move to Phase One production in
2021. Nobody will watch the bottom line and the house estimates for interest servicing or tax
are loose and unimportant; MIN has to show positive free cash flow and, when it does, we
move into a different realm.
Our model on 125m lbs copper production is the real reason to like MIN.to today, all the above
is staging post on the way to real company maturity. For this we assume:
 Production of 125m lbs in our model year.
 Mine cash costs of U$0.80/lb. This is 10c/lb higher than our previous model in order to
give op-ex leeway (acid prices, for example).
 The streaming deal with Triple Flag as stands,
 Share count remains at current levels, rounded to 240m
 Interest servicing of $30m annual, also a guess and less important
 We keep TC/RC to 15%, though the case for 10% is more compelling as volumes
increase. Consider this very conservative.
 Other minor items remains as-is.
Using the same copper price decks, we now put charts in yellow to see the difference:
MIN.to at Gunnison: Annual Stage Three model revs by metal type (U$m)
model $2.50/lb Cu $2.75/lb Cu $3.00/lb Cu $3.25/lb Cu
Cu Mlbs 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0
$/lb at 100% market 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25
$/lb 25% (triple flag) 0.63 0.69 0.75 0.81
Cu revs (U$m) 273.83 301.21 328.59 355.98
Mining revs (U$m) 273.83 301.21 328.59 355.98
TC/RC 41.07 45.18 49.29 53.40
Total Royalties 16.25 16.25 17.50 18.75
Net sales (U$m) 216.50 239.78 261.80 283.83
Source: MIN data, IKN ests
MIN at Gunnison is now a cash cow. Here’s the model income statement:
MIN.to at Gunnison: Stage Three income items for model year
At 125m lbs Cu prod $2.50/lb Cu $2.75/lb Cu $3.00/lb Cu $3.25/lb Cu
Sales (U$m) 216.5 239.8 261.8 283.8
Cash COGS 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Depreciation 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0
SGA 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
Op income 69.3 92.5 113.3 134.1
Interest 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Workers Part. 5.5 7.4 9.1 10.7
Tax 9.4 15.4 20.8 26.1
Net income 24.3 39.7 53.5 67.2
Shares out (m) 240 240 240 240
EPS 0.10 0.17 0.22 0.28
Sust capex -8 -8 -8 -8
FCF/sh 0.17 0.24 0.29 0.35
Source: MIN data, IKN ests
Once again, what matters most is the cash flow and seeing an annual U$113.3m from the type
of ISL operation that tends to run on rails for a long time once established makes MIN a
7

valuable company today. Above all, the operating income potential of Gunnison will drive MUN
valuations, but for illustrative purposes only here’s a price target generated at a reasonable 8X
multiple to that cash flow:
Excelsior (MIN.to) model Target price & valuation data for Gunnison
Cu U$/lb $2.50 $2.75 $3.00 $3.25 at 125m lbs/year at U$3.00/lb copper price
Sales ($m) 216.5 239.8 261.8 283.8 12-month target $3.14 (on 8x fwd cash flow)
Upside to target 274%
EPS 0.101 0.165 0.223 0.280 Mkt cap ($m) $200 Enterprise value $182
Cash flow 0.205 0.270 0.327 0.384 P/sales ($2.50) 0.83 EV/sales ($2.50) 0.76
P/E ($2.50) n/a EV/EBITDA ($2.50) 1.9
P/E ($2.75) 5.1 EV/EBITDA ($2.75) 1.5
P/E ($3.00) 3.8 EV/EBITDA ($3.00) 1.3
cash flow defined simply as EPS + depreciation
You may argue that applying 8X to the 125m lbs operation before the 25m lbs operation has
proved itself is too hasty, I would reply that 8X will be low for a machine such as this once in
mature production. But even 4X is C$1.57 and an 87% upside to this weekend’s share price,
the model is robust and can even use U$2.50/lb copper and return a $1.00 price target.
Discussion and conclusion
It’s been annoying to hold this copper exposure and watch it tread water while others have
enjoyed the metal’s price rally, but our turn has arrived. Though cash is now light in the
portfolio, I will add to my MIN.to position this week and average down (Edit Monday afternoon,
hopefully) now that the company has reported operational success at Gunnison. The project
economics have always stood out above other copper juniors and now the company has
reappeared and announced its plans, the catch-up to other copper stocks is inevitable. At that
point, I should finally start to see my money in MIN.to out-perform peers. Adding.
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse) keeps Ollachea
The headline to today’s update on the company and its long-overdue news last week is chosen
deliberately; the only good piece of news we got from the company last week. The NR (2), for
some reason delivered under Halt when a normal, pre-open NR would have sufficed, boils down
to the four bullet points:
 The Company owes COFIDE US$70 million in principal and US$ 31.9 million of accrued
interest (calculated to November 10, 2020) pursuant to the 2015 Bridge Loan.
 COFIDE owes the Company US$34.2 million in principal pursuant to the September
2019 Arbitration Award, plus interest at the rate set by the Central Reserve Bank of
Peru from July 17, 2017 to the date of payment.
 The amounts due will be offset, and the Company will pay the net balance to COFIDE
within 36 months.
 COFIDE will withdraw its legal claim for annulment of the Arbitration Award.
In other words, exactly where we were 14 months ago except for the small fact that MIRL has
to pay all the interest accrued on the bridge loan and that interest has accrued to such a level
8

that it has all-but annulled the company’s tribunal award. This is along way from the deal we
were promised by the company and is a rotten end to a bad negotiation.
However, the deal also confirms that MIRL gets to keep its asset and as that’s the most
valuable prize of all the news was initially cheered by the market. Side from that there’s little
else to cheer and when CEO Benavides tells us these are “truly exciting times” for the company
it’s difficult to answer anything else but “show us”. For some reason, this company must have
thought the contents of last week’s NR would be enough for its shareholders. Apart from
“exciting times” we have been given no information at all about the future plans. MIRL is now
free from the liens of COFIDE and its weird, self-imposed gagging order. It has had years
(literally) to refine its project and we have waited all this time, too.
Where is the plan?
Who are the investors?
Why have we been told nothing so far?
Let us be clear, even after giving him a rude awakening CEO Benavides is quickly reverting to
type and would prefer we knew as little as possible. This is why his job is now under threat and
why we require immediate updates and detailed information on MIRL’s plans for the future.
Silence is no longer acceptable nor excusable, I simply do not understand why we didn’t get a
raft of extra detail from the company last week. Trading halted for the NR, too, it would seem
CEO Benavides requires congratulations for doing nothing.
An attempt at valuing Ollachea
In the meantime, as many of you have requested some sort of fundies framework for the
company going forward, these ages propose the following with the understanding that the
model may change greatly once we have details from MIRL:
 The main change is our assumption of shares out, which moves up to 500m from 231m
shares out today. With the terms of the deal with Cofide, MIRL clearly needs to raise
more capex than before. If we assume MIRL can deliver Ollachea’s first stage for the
approximate U$50m number they were using in 2019 and early 2020, the company
structure needs to raise a total of U$120m (including contingencies). We cover this
assumption by selling 269m shares and taking a U$80m dent facility, on which we pay
U$10m annual. Somebody has to pay for the bad deal with Cofide.
 We run a 1,500tpd mill for 350 days per year
 We run 5g/t average gold through the mill at 91% recoveries. When those two lines are
done, Ollachea produces a little over 76k oz gold per year which is in-line with previous
company estimates.
 We assume a U$650/oz mine cash cost, as Ollachea will be efficient.
 The royalties, minor participations and NSRs on the project, including the Ollchea
community (5%), Peru State (1.5%) and private NSRs (1.5%), 8% worker participation
on EBIT
 DD&A $7m, G&A $6m as estimates
 Other minor items
We then do the normal, running the numbers on four gold prices. As the coloured shading
indicates, your author is going with U$1,900/oz to reflect today’s spot price:
IRL at Ollachea: Model Year Revenues & Op Income (U$m)
Price Deck U$ 1,500 1,800 1,900 2,000
Prod. gold (Oz) 76,809 76,809 76,809 76,809
U$/oz $1,500 $1,800 $1,900 $2,000
Au gross revs $115.21 $138.26 $145.94 $153.62
Sources: IRL data, IKN calcs and estimates
This table shows how much of that top line revenue they should be able to hold onto:
9

IRL at Ollachea: Model Year Income statement items (in U$m)
U$/oz Au 1500 1800 1900 2000
Sales (U$m) 115.2 138.3 145.9 153.6
COGS 49.9 49.9 49.9 49.9
Depreciation 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
SGA 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
Comm. & NSR (6.5%) 6.4 7.6 8.1 8.5
Op income 26.9 44.9 50.9 56.9
Interest 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
Workers Part. 1.4 2.8 3.3 3.7
Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net income 15.6 32.1 37.6 43.1
Shares out 500 500 500 500
EPS 0.03 0.06 0.08 0.09
Sources: IRL data, IKN estimates
At U$1,900/oz gold, operating income of U$50.9m is a strong number. Notably, no problem
with interest servicing at these gold prices. A target price generated:
MIRL Sales and earnings Target price & valuation data for MIRL.cse based on
USD $1,500 $1,800 $1,900 $2,000 U$1,900/oz gold
Sales (U$m) 98 118 124 131 12-month target C$0.54 based on 6x EPS
Sales growth 20% 6% 5% Upside to target 178%
EPS 0.03 0.06 0.08 0.09 Mkt cap (CAD$m) $45 Enterprise value $112
FCF 0.08 0.11 0.12 0.13 P/sales ($1,500) 0.36 EV/sales ($1,500) 0.95
P/E ($1,500) 6.3 EV/EBITDA ($1,500) 3.3
P/E ($1,800) 3.0 EV/EBITDA ($1,800) 2.2
P/E ($1,900) 2.6 EV/EBITDA ($1,900) 1.9
At 6x EPS there’s plenty of room, though we’d be lucky to get to 50c before the big de-risking
event, that of the eventual financing package, is unveiled. The above model is rough framework
only, that cannot be stressed too much and a lot will depend on exactly how MIRL raises the
capex to build Ollachea. However, it runs plenty of conservative parameters and gives an idea
of the prize, as the green-lighting of the project and start of construction would be enough to
see 54c taken out, no need to wait for the mine to start production.
Discussion and conclusion
I was left annoyed and frustrated, once again, by Minera IRL last week. It has confirmed
ownership of its asset but apart from that, CEO Benavides is lapsing into Mushroom Politics
once again. The time for waiting is over, this board and management must provide details of its
forward plans and expectations on financing them as soon as possible. At that point, we will be
able to make an educated decision as we move into the AGM on December 14th.
STOP PRESS: As luck would have it, the evening of Monday November 16th has seen MIRL file
its 3q20 financials. This is good, we get to kill two birds with one stone and start with revenues,
which came in as expected at $10.665m:
IRL: Revenues per qtr
10
239.6 612.7 331.7 856.7 924.6 833.7 133.9 656.8 782.8 562.8
566.01
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3
$m
source: company filings

However, costs came in higher than expected, with COGS $600k over the house model at
$6.661m and admin a big $3.065m. That included one-time charges.
IRL: Admin costs per qtr
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
11
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3
$m
source: company filings
This gives operating income of $0.879m, which does not impress under such high gold prices:
Minera IRL: Operating Income
849.0
945.1
660.0- 441.0-
870.0
507.0-
170.0 501.0
671.0-
4.0
113.1
994.0
372.1
549.0 978.0
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3
U$m
source: company filings
The final net loss number of $1.938m is less of an issue, we know MIRL’s accounts are affected
by the loan obligations. However, the company
IRL: Cash treasury per qtr
didn’t manage to hold on to much of the money
for itself and this show in the only balance sheet
chart that matters today, cash treasury is still thin
at $2.483m. These are the levels we previously
saw MIRL having liquidity issues with and taking
out private loans to tide over unexpected payments.
Overall, not a good quarter. CEO Benavides needs
to provide the market with better news than this
when we hear about the plans for Ollachea.
85.1
451.4 502.4
672.3 43.2 988.2 907.2 992.2 528.1 746.1 234.2 197.2 498.2 804.2 384.2
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2 1.5 1
0.5
0
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

Stocks to Follow
With the addition of Kuya Silver last week, there are now 16 open positions on our list and
somehow or another, five of them returned weekly gains (MIN.to, ORE.v, MIRL.cse, TORO.v,
TK.v), including the big +33.3% move in Excelsior on its good news and the rocketship KUYA,
but that’s brand new. With no stocks unchanged on the week that leaves eleven losers, with
the biggest drop from Norsemont (NOM.cse down 16.4%) which was good because I was
buying. However, the chipper optimism of the above paragraph cannot hide a losing week for
the portfolio. GDX dropped 9.1% and our precious metals stocks were not immune, all major
positions lost ground including Top Picks Minera Alamos (MAI.v down 10.3%) and Rio2 Ltd
(RIO.v down 5.4%), plus all the larger holdings.
Until Tinka Resources leaves as planned, we have 16 open positions which is one above our
normal, self-imposed maximum. Ten are in the green, five are in the red, one is unchanged on
its cost average.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.70 233.3% New $1.14 tgt Aug'20 #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.88 6.0% $1.58 tgt, bot again Nov'20
Recommended stocks (In order of preference)
Fiore Gold F.v STR BUY C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.54 57.1% $2.00 target, small growth PM
New Gold NGD BUY U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$1.85 143.4% 3q20 tgt $2.80 confirmed
Norsemont Mining NOM.cse STR BUY C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$1.22 -21.3% Add 3rd time, for 2021 run
Great Bear Res GBR.v STR BUY C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$16.19 2.3% M&A major tgt, added IKN590
Trilogy Metals TMQ BUY U$1.78 15-Sep-19 U$1.61 -9.6% Permit received. Holding thru
Excelsior Mining MIN.to BUY C$0.95 10-Mar-19 C$0.84 -11.6% delayed re-rate, we hold thru
Royal Road Min. RYR.v spec buy C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.37 138.7% Good progress in Nica
Orezone ORE.v BUY C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$0.96 21.5% Now in news period, trade buy
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.195 0.0% 25c first tgt on Cofide deal
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse spec buy C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.15 29.5% new Peru Ag jr w/good plan
Cartier Resources ECR.v hold/sell? C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.27 74.2% running out of time
Aurelius Res AUL.v spec buy C$0.075 28-Jun-20 C$0.065 -13.3% 1st assays promising, spec buy
Pucara Gold TORO.v wait to add C$0.80 4-Oct-20 C$0.87 8.8% Will add at under 65c
Tinka Res TK.v SELLING C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.185 -5.1% SELL ON NOV'20 DRILL NR
Short positions
no current short positions
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
12

Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for some notes on our covered stocks:
Kuya Silver (KUYA.cse): POSITION OPENED. Here comes the standard brief opening note,
as per the decision in IKJN598 last weekend, I took a starter position before KUYA rocketed
further North on more promo recommends, which of course reminds me of my own words and
the potential regret of not taking a half position three weeks ago at $1.25. Procrastination is a
weak suit, guilty as charged.
Juniors that do well are juniors that respond to the market and KUYA had already heard
complaints that its CSE-only listing was not easy to access for people not using standard
Canadian brokerage channels. The company announced last week its KUYAF ORC ticker was
now more widely available for trading and indeed, this channel is averaging perhaps 10k
volume per day (3). In any case, the (half) trade is now set. The price action has already baked
a lot of assumed success into this company and if it continues to zoom there would be nothing
to stop me from selling this chunk and returning later, once the market calms. Its Peru
exposure may now also become a factor, in short this is a trade I’ll need to watch actively.
Rio 2 Ltd (RIO.v): Added with the cost average slightly raised but no biggie, the new 83c is
right on the now solid support line. For what it’s worth, I caught up with CEO Alex Black on
Friday but we talked Peru and South American politics almost exclusively, with his company
hardly mentioned.
Orezone (ORE.v): Added and what’s more,
managed to do so before ORE became one of
the junior leaders of the late week rebound.
The difference was Wednesday, when a
determined buyer came for around 800k shares
and another reminder of what a single buyer on
the open market can do to these companies.
Norsemont Mining (NOM.cse): Added but
the purchase wasn’t quite as successful, early
week turned out to be more expensive than late
week. However, the cost average dropped (a
little) further as I went to the well one more
time. NOM is now a big position in the portfolio compared to most other stocks, which is a
consequence of it being in the right time to buy.
Royal Road Minerals (RYR.v): News and drill assays from RYR’s Caribe project in
Nicaragua’s hurricane zone. Caribe is the blind target generated by classic boot-leather geology
and this second drill program confirmed disseminated gold mineralization close to surface. RYR
picked out these lines to be the NR highlights (4) we will too:
CB-DDH-006 74 meters at 0.9 grams per tonne gold; and
14 meters at 1.0 grams per tonne gold
CB-DDH-007 12 meters at 1.0 grams per tonne gold (bogged and abandoned above objective)
CB-DDH-009 45 meters at 1.0 grams per tonne gold; and
13

35 meters at 1.1 grams per tonne gold (bogged and abandoned above objective)
CB-DDH-010 42 meters at 1.0 grams per tonne gold
CB-DDH-011 42 meters at 1.0 grams per tonne gold (bogged and abandoned above objective)
RYR’s next planned stage is to run a limited, relatively short hole (and cheap) program to get a
better idea of the total mineralized footprint. As for the previous theory that Caribe is connected
to a large MAG high to the North East of the project, that’s still possible even though the team
now assume it isn’t mineralized. The MAG high may be driving a large regional system, but that
is now theoretical geology for another day. Caribe is not a high priority target at RYR (that’s
Colombia) but is as cost-effective a grassroots discovery as can be imagined and won’t need
much more drilling to get to a maiden resource. It’s easy to forget this is what junior explorecos
run by economic geologists are supposed to do.
The Copper Basket
After 46 weeks of 2020, The Copper Basket shows a 43.50% gain to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Capstone Min CS.to 0.76 399.598 707.29 1.77 132.9%
2 Imperial Metals III.to 2.06 128.49 436.87 3.40 65.0%
3 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 3.38 138.905 293.09 2.11 -37.6%
4 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.45 181.52 254.13 1.40 211.1%
8 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 1.625 64.358 228.47 3.55 118.5%
5 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 0.71 191.3 221.91 1.16 63.4%
6 Excelsior Min. MIN.to 1.00 238.658 200.47 0.84 -16.0%
7 Western Copper WRN.to 1.07 107.586 161.38 1.50 40.2%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.28 101.85 132.41 1.30 1.6%
10 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.59 180.169 91.89 0.51 -13.6%
11 Atico Mining ATY.v 0.31 119.023 55.94 0.47 51.6%
12 Chakana Cop PERU.v 0.245 93.2 50.33 0.54 120.4%
13 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.47 77.636 30.28 0.39 -17.0%
14 Doré Copper DCMC.v 1.25 31.798 19.71 0.62 -50.4%
15 Chibougamau CBG.v 0.17 46.695 6.54 0.14 -17.6%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 43.50%
The pull of lower metals prices early week 60% The Copper Basket 2020, weekly evolution
was cancelled out by a new round of 50%
40%
economic (over) enthusiasm on the back of 30%
the Covid-19 vaccine announcement. Larger 20%
10%
copper producers stocks joined the party, 0%
but the juniors were a mixed bag and our -10%
-20%
basket average only managed a small gain -30%
of around a point. The list was split into -40%
-50%
seven winners (III.to, MIN.to, MARI.to, -60%
WRN.to, OCO.v, ATY.v, CBG.v) and seven
losers (TMQ.to, CS.to, CMMC.to, REG.v,
ARG.to, DCMC.v, ALDE.v), with just
Chakana Copper unchanged on the week.
As for big moves, they tended to be company specific and were led to the upside by Excelsior
(MIN.to up 33.3%) and Atico Mining (ATY.v 11.9%), and Imperial (III.to up 11.1%), to the
downside Aldebaran (ALDE.v down 13.3%) was the only double figure percentage loser.
Copper the metal is back nudging at recent highs on the Pfizer feelgood factor, it’s also worth
noting how world inventory data continue to support the bulls. Also true to a certain extent for
14
ts13ceD ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 ts1ram ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5rpa ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yam ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7nuj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5luj ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2gua ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6pes ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4tco ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1von ht8 ht51
source: IKN calcs

Chilean mine unions, whose workers are set to reject the improved offer from Lundin Mining
this coming Tuesday and stay on strike, which makes one month of a stoppage that has very
little real effect on the macro.
Time for the regular check on copper inventory data, data from Chile’s Cochilco:
 World copper stocks kept their trend lower, this week down 19,360 metric tonnes (mt)
(-5.1%), the total now a thinnish looking 357,979mt.
 Another chunky drop at SHFE, down another 13,372mt (- 10.2%) to close the week at
117,949mt. That’s enough to keep the market with half an eye on potential supply
shortages and helped support copper’s good week at market.
 The LME saw paper-only trades saw 3,250mt leave its New Orleans warehouses, and
3,875mt from its Holland warehouses. With slight adjustments from other places, a
total of 7,250mt left LME inventories and a weekend total of 165,200mt.
 Comex adds another 1,262mt, its total rising to 74,830mt. At some point Comex
becomes a factor in the world total, but to date it is a passive factor.
The Shanghai-only inventories show the drop back toward the 100k line, which is at least
seasonally correct this time. An end-user demand hike from SHFE inventory back-ups be due to
the reported 5.4% YoY drop in Chinese refined copper production, with two major smelters
offline for maintenance at the same time.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, Dec'16 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
15
6102
dr3naj
ts13 ht82 ht72 ht42 dn22 ht91 ht71 ht41 ht11 ht9 ht6voN ht11 ht8 ht5beF 7102
ht5raM
dn2rpA ht03 ht82 ht52 dr32 ht02 ht71 ht51 ht21 ht01 8102
ht7naj
ht4bef 8102
ht4ram
8102
ts1rpa
ht92 dr3nuj 8102
ts1yluj
ht92 ht62 dr32 ts12tco ht81 ht61 ht31naj ht01 ht01 9102
ht7rpa
ht5yam 9102
dn2nuj
ht03 ht82 102ht52pes dn22 ht02 9102ht71von ht51 0202ht21naj ht9 ht8 ht5rpa 0202dr3yam ht13 ht82 0202ht62luj dr32 ht02 ht81 ht51
Mt Cu
source: Cochilco
Now for a couple of notes on just one basket component stock, as according feedback you

don’t want to hear me bitching about REG even when I’m right or whining that Oroco
Resources is overvalued at $250m again. You make a good point about the latter.
Imperial Metals (III.to): Tuesday post-bell saw III post its best earnings quarter for years, a
look at its P+L...
…shows the improvement. First, decent margins on better production now that decent miners
are operating Red Chris. Second, check the way in which the cash flow gets to the bottom line,
the corporate re-structure and clean balance sheet allowing bottom line profits. The market
liked what it saw but, being III, the whisper was already out by the time the earnings were
posted. C-suite like a sieve.
The Producer Basket
After 46 weeks of 2020, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 32.24% to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out Mkt Cap (Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 43.45 819.84 53.87 65.71 51.2%
2 Barrick GOLD 18.59 1779.04 46.02 25.87 39.2%
3 Franco-Nevada FNV 103.30 188.6 25.65 136.02 31.7%
4 Agnico Eagle AEM 61.61 238.985 17.75 74.27 20.5%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.74 1253.5 10.05 8.02 69.2%
6 Royal Gold RGLD 122.25 65.375 7.76 118.69 -2.9%
7 Pan American PAAS 23.69 209.61 6.92 33.02 39.4%
8 B2Gold BTG 4.01 1025.75 6.14 5.99 49.4%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 6.02 391.19 3.52 9.00 49.5%
10 Buenaventura BVN 15.10 254.19 2.89 11.36 -24.8%
Prices in U$, NYSE/NASDAQ tickers Portfolio avg 32.24%
As consolidations after big upmoves go, hardly picture-perfect. The PM market managed to
blow off not just the election hype, but all the improvement since the mid-September bullion
sales that marked the end of the Full Bull period. So back to square one in some ways, with
bullion down 3.28% since last weekend (GLD proxy) and a GDX that dropped 9.08% week-over
week. Even that was better than the performance in our list, all down and biggest losers in
B2Gold (BTG down 13.81%), Agnico (AEM down 11.75%), Buenaventura (BVN down 11.53%),
Pan American (PAAS down 10.59%), Barrick (GOLD down 10.39%), Alamos (AGI down
10.18%), those just the double figure losers. In fact the only relatively modest loser was the
16

3q20 big winner Newmont (NEM down 3.57%), which has managed to pull out a near-$8m
market cap lead on Barrick (GOLD).
Buenaventura (BVN): Political instability in Peru (see below) is affecting risk perception of
The 2020 Producer Basket: Percentage difference between
GDX benchmark and basket (negative = IKN basket ahead)
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
-6.0%
-7.0%
-8.0%
stocks such as Buenaventura (BVN), that’s not
a difficult read from such a chart:
As noted on the blog early week, BVN’s bosses will
be quietly happy about the way government has
now come to a standstill, as though the corruption
investigation certainly does not affect BVN or the
Benavides brothers, it has got close to plenty of
people they know and like. As noted in last night’s
cover mail, I continue to believe this current price
window to be an excellent buying window for the
company, that may become even better with price
weakness on a deeper Peru crisis. Among other
matters, we also got confirmation last week that
its San Gabriel project in South Peru is finally off
the drawing board and moving to construction in
the first half of 2021. As noted in last weekend’s
edition, the new CEO is in behest to the Benavides brothers and will obey orders, collect cash,
line coffers and pay shareholders. An approx $3Bn market capper is normally too large for the
normal IKN Weekly profile, but the value window is tempting.
The Tiny Dogs
Here are our ten and after thirty-six weeks, the average is up by 38.19%:
company ticker price 16/2/20 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 136.26 5.45 0.04 -38.5%
2 Chakana Copper PERU.v 0.175 93.2 50.33 0.54 208.6%
3 Constantine Met CEM.v 0.19 45.35 7.71 0.17 -10.5%
4 Contact Gold C.v 0.175 84.472 11.40 0.135 -22.9%
5 Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.065 230.79 11.54 0.05 -23.1%
6 Salazar Res* SRL.v 0.18 126.55 39.86 0.315 75.0%
7 Radius Gold RDU.v 0.235 86.94 24.34 0.28 19.1%
8 Red Pine Expl RPX.v 0.035 477.22 16.70 0.035 0.0%
9 Warrior Gold WAR.v 0.055 68.2 6.82 0.10 81.2%
10 Wolfden Res WLF.v 0.13 129.532 25.91 0.20 53.8%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV (*SRL price from May 2nd) basket avg 38.19%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list that represents what’s going on in the
17
ts13ceD ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 ts1ram ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5rpa ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yam ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7nuj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5luj ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2gua ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6pes ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4tco ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1von ht8 ht51
The 2020 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
60%
comparative to GDX control
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30% source: IKN calc, NYSE/Nasdaq data
-40%
ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 ts1ram ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5rpa ht21 ht91 ht62 r3yam ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7nuj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5luj ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2gua ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6pes ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4tco ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1von ht8 ht51
basket
gdx control
source: Google, IKN calcs

whole sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two case I’ve stretched the window a little
and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The basket average got whacked hard, much the same as any other mining subsector. Zero
winners and eight losers among the ten, so let’s simply name the two unchanged stocks on the
week, Chakana (PERU.v) and Wolfden (WLF.v), and be done. Worst loser was Warrior Gold
(WAR.v down 16.7%).
Chakana Copper (PERU.v): PERU.v came out with new drill assays from its Soledad project
as it targets the tourmaline breccia pipes and system (5) and, some flashy sub-sections aside,
the results from the Paloma pipes so far is mediocre. For example, the long 80m interval gave
80m of 1.49% CuEq, but as that included 18.05m of 3.17% CuEq it means the other 61m or so
was 1.0% CuEq, which literally will not make the grade for the type of UG mine envisaged here.
However, these are the first three of ten holes already sent to the labs from the Paloma target,
so seven to go and then PERU.v also announced it has now put three holes into the big
Huancarama target, so that is to look forward to and may be the source of a new price pump,
but so far at least the Paloma pipes look sub-standard.
Core Length Au Ag Cu-eq
DDH # From - To (m) (m) g/t g/t Cu % %* Au-eq g/t*
SDH20-140 2.7 5 2.3 4.59 10.8 4.73
and 21 101 80 0.39 30.5 0.97 1.49 2.27
incl 22.95 41 18.05 0.79 82.7 1.95 3.17 4.85
inc 33 41 8 0.73 46.3 4.04 4.91 7.52
SDH20-141 3.6 9 5.4 1.49 4.6 1.55
and 28 70.65 42.65 1.87 84.5 2.15 4.09 6.26
incl 29 34 5 2.66 443.2 0.17 5.7 8.72
incl 48 70.65 22.65 2.81 56.2 3.8 6.12 9.36
SDH20-142 2.3 8 5.7 1.14 8.7 1.25
and 36 103.3 67.3 0.79 41.6 0.66 1.53 2.34
incl 38.3 55 16.7 0.31 120.4 1.17 2.4 3.67
incl 73 88 15 2.61 16.8 0.62 2.47 3.78
What matters is in yellow. The next seven holes will need to be more like hole 141, not 140 or 142.
One of the constant complaints from prospective investor is that “these pipes are thin”, which is
true but PERU.v sees the opportunity to mine several at once, using a single underground
connecting tunnel. However, Huancarama may be something different because it’s by far the
“fattest” target visible at surface and has been begging to be drilled for coming on three years.
Those using PERU as a speculative vehicle should keep a sharp eye out for the results from
Huancarama, they are potential 2020 make/break for the share price. On that subject, the stock
propping at PERU.v these days is so blatant it’s almost amusing:
18

Since PERU.v, ALDE.v and REG.v got the in Vancouver experts, their shares have traded in the
style imagined. However, please be clear that this only works up to the moment that it doesn’t,
all the company can do from this point is work hard and keep the money happy.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It is possible that in the
future I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, but at the moment both my opinion and my wallet are strictly
neutral.
Regional politics
Nicaragua gets a second major hurricane
It seems as though 2020 isn’t done wit us yet, on the back of Hurricane Eta that hit Central
America hard at the start of this month, we now have a strengthening Cat 3 named Iota that is
due to make landfall on the Eastern Central America coastline, roughly on the borer between
Nicaragua and Honduras, around Tuesday evening. For what it’s worth, the hurricane’s
predicted path is very similar to that of Eta’s, which means the storm is targeting the so-called
“Mining Triangle” (triangulo minero) to the North East of Nica, including the town of Bonanza.
The Peru political crisis
Compared to when I wrote last night’s cover mail in the wee small hours (see Appendix 1), the
situation in Peru has improved due mostly to the decision to make Francisco Sagasti, member
of Congress for the Morado Party and respected by all sides, the interim President of Peru (6).
With that move, the power vacuum is covered and the chances of military intervention have
dropped away. A good start, but there’s still a lot of damage that needs to be undone due to
the madness of the preceding week.
The crazy began on Monday when now ex-President Martín Vizcarra appeared before Congress
to answer the calls for his “Vacancy” (by the way, Northern press are reporting it as
“Impeachment”, that’s incorrect and see below for more) as per expected in last weekend’s
note. He put forward his case, answered questions etc. It went largely as expected, with the
President and his legal team using the main thrust that 1) investigations are welcome should
take place, 2) he is innocent of all charges 3) there is nothing so far in this early stage
investigation that warrants the removal of a President 4) let the investigation happen at the end
of his mandate, in a mere nine months’ time. But then as the debate unfolded, it started to
become clear that Vizcarra had walked into an ambush. One political “bancada” (“bench”, =
grouping of like-minded politicos) after another lined up to condemn the President, using the
same flimsy “has to be now” argument time and again. When the vote was called, the only
party to actively vote against the removal of Vizcarra was the new Morado Party (headed by
Presidential candidate and political centrist, Julio Guzmán) and with 105 out of 130 voted
against him, he was gone.
To indulge in a little reportage, I was hardly paying attention to the debate on Monday until a
friend nudged me to say it was all suddenly smelling fishy. Watching the last half hour, plus the
vote and ensuing chaos, was my own salutary reminder of how bare-faced power grabs can be.
This was a near-perfect Coup D’Etat; The right wing took control of the country and
immediately went about trying to close down the threats Vizcarra had posed against many of its
main members, as well as rewarding those who had voted their way. Indeed, the first thing the
Merino government tried to do was oust the Procurator General from his job, as it turns out he
is the person who prosecutes any Constitutional case against the government of the land. As
for the rewards for others, in Peruvian Spanish it’s called La Repartija, the reparting of gifts
from a successful operation (be it political or other=). This time, the attempt at doling out of
booty included:
 Immunity from prosecution for those members of Congress under imminent threat of
arrest due to their involvement in one of several corruption investigations currently
19

underway in Peru.
 The re-opening of private universities in the country. These are extremely profitable
and often run by the richest people in the political world (e.g. Cesar Acuña, head of the
APParty and one of the early frontrunners for the 2021 election in April). However, they
are notoriously lax in standards and under Vizcarra, many of the most predatory were
shut down pending education reform laws. Within 24 hours, the law projects
demanding that their prohibiton be rolled back were presented by the interest groups
power.
 The rollback of the recent change in the law which allows no more re-election of
members of Congress (even when they change parties, which is how many of these
wretches got round the first Vizcarra law change).
 The release of Antauro Humala from prison. The hard right wing UPP Party got a
handful of members into Congress in the last election. Now top of their wishlist is a
Presidential pardon for their leader Antauro Humala, brother of ex-President Ollanta
Humala and leader of an insurrection in South Peru that saw two police officers shot
dead. In jail on a 25 year term, they want their boss out as re-payment.
Aside those a whole range of smaller special interests, from member of congress to member of
congress, all demanding their slice of a rich and corrupt pie. Take for example UPP member of
congress Alexander Lozano, who wasted no time in petitioning the new Head of Congress to
debate his law project (7) to roll back environmental prohibitions on drag mining in Amazon
Basin rivers. Staying with political slush money in the mining world, we had backers asking to
allow mining development in the Tambogrande region of North Peru (8), where the infamous
Majaz, now mostly backed by deep Chinese pockets, has been steadfastly opposed for decades
(literally) by locals. Or the Lima members of Congress who wanted to roll back the new
environmental laws that will stop old buses running urban routes (they get their cut from the
line owners). Those two of a dozen others as the slimeballs came out the woodwork.
All this was closed down by pure people power, but it came as a cost when police defending the
Congress of Corruption shot dead two of the peaceful marchers using 12 gauge lead shot. At
that point political support for the Usurper Merino fell away and after seeing nearly all his
coation cabinet resign and turn their backs on his brutalist tactics, he was forced to resign.
Then came the last 24 hours, which may have seemed calmer to the rest of the world but
inside Peru, there were real fears the army might be called in to take control before Interim
President Sagasti was voted up this afternoon (Congress finally getting a dose of common
sense before it was too late).
What happens now: Firstly, the Constitutional Court (Tribunal Constitucional (TC)) will meet
tomorrow Tuesday and as it has the power to roll back Congress’s measures as unconstitutional
and annul the “Vacancy” process, thereby reinstating Martín Vizcarra as President. This why
Pru’s week is different from an impeachment process and why the English-speaking press do no
favours by using the word to describe what’s going on in Peru. As for the merits of the case
against Vizcarra, as noted last weekend every career Peru politico has skeletons in their
cupboards and is probably guilty of accepting bribes 10 or 15 years ago, but the investigation
against him is still in its early stage and there’s a strong case to make that Congress acted both
hastily and illegally last week. However, a clear word of warning as this interim Presidency is
important, but equally vital is the upcoming Presidential election race with the vote in April next
year. There’s a distinct air of a generational change in Peru and the person to lead it may be
Presidential candidate George Forsyth, ex-professional goalkeeper and current Mayor of one of
the large Lima boroughs. He is now frontrunner for the election, his youthful image untouched
by traditional politics and corruption may make him the right person in the right place at the
right time. Over the long term, a sweeping out of the old guard of corrupt fat cat politicos will
do the country a world of good, but as with all cultural trend change moments, there’s still the
potential for instability in Peru and nobody should assume calm will prevail until April.
20

Market Watching
Aurelius (AUL.v) shows early promise
On the morning of last Tuesday November 10th we got the first set of real and new drill assays
back from our tinycap drill spec Aurelius Resources (AUL.v). The plan is to test at depth, here’s
how the market took the news:
On this occasion, we disagree with the market*. On Tuesday and with the news (9) AUL traded
happily enough UNCH all day, but the market promptly forgot all about this tinycap and its
news and (in the IKN best guess) one person decided to sell a chunky-but-reasonable million
shares on Thursday for their own reasons there was no market at all for the stock. The seller
took any price and AUL limped to the Friday close.
The takeaway: This is no longer June or early August, explorecos still respond to good NRs but
in order to catch fire the news now has to be great, not just good. Ands it happens these AUL
first pass drill numbers at Aureus East and here’s how they presented their holes, your author
adds some black ink:
Hole AE-20-003
Intersected 4.50m @ 6.8 grams per tonne (g/t) gold, from 29.50 to 34.00m
Including 2.35m @ 12.4 g/t gold, from 30.70 to 33.05m
Intersected 5.80m @ 7.4 g/t gold, from 216.20 to 222.00m
Including 0.30m @ 113.5 g/t gold, from 216.70 to 217.00m
Including 0.60m @ 11.1 g/t gold, from 219.90 to 220.50m
Intersected 3.25m @ 6.3 g/t gold, from 271.90 to 275.15m
Including 1.75m @ 10.7 g/t gold, from 273.40 to 275.15m
Intersected 1.85m @ 7.1 g/t gold, from 397.05 to 398.90m
Hole AE-20-002
Intersected 4.80m @ 4.5 g/t gold, from 214.20 to 219.00m
Including 1.00m @ 20.7 g/t gold, from 217.00 to 218.00m
Intersected 0.35m @ 58.3 g/t gold, from 386.35 to 386.70m
AUL found almost exactly what they were looking for, i.e. multiple hits of good grading, wide
metre gold mineralization in separate lengths along one drill hole, plus inside each hit the type
of high grade intersect typical of the geology. What AUL also did in its NR was supply two
simple looking but very smart visuals to help explain what they are trying to do (and therefore,
what they achieved in these first holes)
First this, which gives a stylised visual on what is at Aureus East according to the company:
21

The above image goes some way to explain why AUL CEO Ashcroft called the saddle type
geology at the project “notoriously difficult to drill”, as to hit the optimum angle of attack
required very accurate drill planning and execution, misses are easy. But the above image also
outlines the prize, including the way one hole can return several hit zones which quick add up
into a resource size. The second AUL image takes the idea and adds the recent AUL holes:
It’s not easy to make a 3D concept such as this easily understood, AUL has done a great job
with that visual (and for what it’s worth, I shot a mail on receipt of the NR telling CEO Ashcroft
22

as much; he replied saying the idea started as a conversation and a beermat sketch). It even
underscores the old workings part of AUL’s attraction at Aureus East, we see how those saddles
traced lower underground and how the old miners worked the rock. Last week, our tinycap
managed to show the world that its theory of applying modern exploration techniques to zone
for the first time is the right way forward.
Now AUL needs to repeats hits on the saddles and work up a resource. With 241.1m shares out
and the discounted 6.5c share price this weekend, AUL’s market cap of C$15.7m includes
around $3.5m of working capital, enough to get it well into 2021 and behind several results
NRS before it needs to raise again. The type of market cap that provides real leverage on a
successful drilling campaign, which has started well. Forget the weak finish to its trading, AUL is
even more interesting as a spec tinycap than it was a week ago. Very easy to hold these and
any future NR has the potential to double the stock price from here.
*Hardly the first time
Mako Mining (MKO.v) places its warrants
As from this Monday and 124 days from the closure and emission of the papers, the warrants
sold by Mako Mining (MKO.v) as part of its June/July 2020 financing (gross proceeds C$28.6m)
become tradable. For some technical details, the “...warrants entitle the holders to purchase
35,500,000 shares at a price of $0.60 per share until January 16, 2022.” (10). It will be
interesting to see how 60c paper on MKO with a shelf limit is priced. This has the potential to
be a very high risk/reward vehicle, one that I personally will not touch (with a bargepole) but
may interest the risk-takers among this audience. For the fundies record, until such time as
MKO improves its 43-101 resource count significantly, your author’s opinion is that MKO is
overpriced at 30c.
Kirkland Lake and Novo Resources (NVO.v)
No holding here and not about to start forming a late-stage opinion either, but the knowledge
that Novo Resources (NVO.v) is a popular company among junior investors and speculators is
enough to warrant this short heads-up. On Friday, Kirkland Lake filed news (11) to say that,
“…(b)etween August 13, 2020 and November 12, 2020, the Company disposed of 1,095,900
common shares of Novo”. KL goes on to say that due to warrants it also held expiring
unexercised and this, the company’s holding in NVO has dropped from a grand total 21.25%
(partially diluted basis) to 12.1% (non-diluted). Being a RegF, KL as a 10%+ inside had to give
reason for its sale: “The NVO Shares were sold for investment purposes.” The implication, that
a operating mining company with over $800m at treasury can find better things to do with
minor cash in an exploration junior with an unorthodox development plan, is not a good optic
for NVO.
A Monday addition: Top Pick Minera Alamos delivers at Cerro de Oro
The decision to delay this week’s edition means I get to cheat a bit and write these words as
reaction to the news out of Minera Alamos, this Monday November 16th (12), the NR title tells
us much of what we need to know…
Minera Alamos Reports Mineral Resource Estimate Of
630,000 Ounces Contained Gold
…though this desk does wish MAI President Doug Ramshaw hadn’t capitalized the preposition.
Further down is the resource table:
That 630,000 ounces is based on reasonable criteria, including a U$1,450/oz gold price and a
conservative 70% recovery rate (in previous NRs, MAI has told us that in early stage met
testing they got 70% recoveries in 72 hours). They also lean on MAI’s expertise in the region,
this is a company with a very good handle on how much it costs to move heap leach dirt
23

around in North Mexico, we can be confident that its costs parameters are not fictional. On
consulting company president Ramshaw this morning, he agreed that 70% recoveries, as well
as other criteria such as gold price assumption and the 0.18 g/t cut-off, err to the conservative
(which is exactly the way we like our heap leach modelling).
As for deal cost, we are again reminded of the outstanding business model being repeated by
CEO Darren Koningen; they are leveraging specific regional knowledge and a winning formula
by targeting smaller sized deposits that others sniff at. The cost here, what would be the
equivalent of a “drill discovery cost” at a standard exploreco I suppose, is 4m shares of MAI.v,
U$2.9m in cash (staged payments) and around $300k in costs on the project since picking it up,
including the bill for the third party 43-101. Even at a stretch that is under U$6m, which means
under U$10/oz. That, on a project so similar to others in Koningen’s CV that we can be sure it’s
robustly economic and now the next in line for development, after Santana.
Just to make sure that sinks in, I just outlined a
project that has gone from zero to near-development
ready asset in four months, at under U$10/oz gold.
The capex will be tiny compared to most other gold
mine projects too, most probably funded straight
from Santana cash flow. This company is not my Top
Pick, number one investment idea and largest
personal holding in the sector. It’s also the best
example of why being wrong seven times out of ten
isn’t such a bad thing, as long as it’s the junior
sector.
A simple call supersedes the non-stop stream of IKN
Weekly words and thoughts, so buy MAI.v and RIO.v and do something better with your time.
Conclusion
IKN599 is done, we end with bullet points:
 The “Time to be bullish” message regarding precious metals stocks last weekend may
have looked a little sickly on Monday morning what with the Covid-19 vaccine news,
but the call looks in good shape now.
 Once I have added to Excelsior (MIN.to) this week, I am just about fully bought in this
market. Any further purchases will likely require sales of other shares beforehand.
 On that subject, hopefully Tinka (TK.v) will bring news and a liquidity window soon.
 Peru is calmer this Monday evening, which is a relief but there’s no guarantees it stays
that way.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good hand-washing fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Mark
24

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/excelsior-mining-provides-operations-130000870.html
(2) https://www.minera-irl.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/12-Nov-MIRL-press-release-re-Settlement-with-COFIDE.pdf
(3) https://kuyasilver.com/2020/11/kuya-silver-announces-commencement-of-trading-on-the-otcqb-under-symbol-kuyaf/
(4) https://www.royalroadminerals.com/news/2020/royal-road-reports-positive-follow-up-drilling-results-from-its-caribe-
gold-discovery-nicaragua/
(5) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chakana-announces-high-grade-discovery-113000232.html
(6) https://iknnews.com/peru-has-a-new-interim-president-francisco-sagasti/
(7) http://www.inforegion.pe/279410/retiran-proyecto-de-ley-que-promovia-mineria-artesanal-y-aluvial-en-la-amazonia/
(8) https://larepublica.pe/sociedad/2020/11/13/piura-con-pat-buscarian-reactivar-proyectos-mineros-en-tambogrande-
lrnd/
(9) https://www.aureliusminerals.com/news/2020/aurelius-minerals-discovers-new-mineralized-zones-at-aureus-east-
project-drills-0.30-metres-at-113.5-g-t-gold-within-5.80/
(10) https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/mako-mining-announces-28-4-million-private-placement-of-units-
880416301.html
(11) https://www.kl.gold/news-and-media/press-release-details/2020/Kirkland-Lake-Gold-Files-Early-Warning-
Report/default.aspx
(12) https://www.mineraalamos.com/news/2020/minera-alamos-reports-mineral-resource-estimate-of-630-000-ounces-
contained-gold/
Appendix 1: Cover mailer November 15th re Peru political situation:
Good Monday early morning, As noted on the blog this morning, the ongoing events in Peru this weekend mean I am
going to take an extra 24 hours to finish this week's edition. With apologies, please expect IKN599 tomorrow Monday
evening. As for its main sector content, I expect to add to my position in Excelsior Mining at any sub-90c level now that
its well has passed proof of concept stage, but will not buy until IKN599 is published.
This short update also exists to warn of the heightened political risk in Peru. With the worsening of the political crisis
over the last 48 hours and no immediate end in sight, Peru is now broad sell. The country moves into Monday without a
Head of State or any sort of workable executive, after its Congress once again put self interests first and failed to come
to a consensus agreement on a replacement for the ex-Usurper Merino. This causes a twofold problem:
1) Unlike last week, Peru now has a dangerous power vacuum with nobody at the top of the chain of command to make
key decisions if, for just one example, the current protests get violent and a mob forms (presumably decisions reverted
back to the same ranking police officers who used lead shot in their fellow citizens last week). I do not wish to
scaremonger, but the potential for the country to spiral out of control and see armed forces mobilized is no mere
conjecture or theory. Even if Congress gets its act together today Monday and finds an interim leader, the (student
driven) public opinion will vote the decision in the street and if they disapprove of this already hated Congress's
decisions, tempers may flare again. As for when some sort of resolution may happen, at this point nobody knows. There
could be a new interim President tomorrow, or the current limbo could go on for days until something snaps. The above
may be worst case scenarios, but they are also feasible.
2) The day-to-day business of running Peru has stopped at a critical moment. One example being the Covid-19 crisis
needs a coordinated government and this is the exact opposite. Another is potentially more pressing, as a country
without a government, ministers or Ministries has one calendar month from today to present and pass the 2021 national
budget. The reality of government stopping at this moment is good for nobody.
The consequences of political crises in Peru rarely make a dent in its business life, but this time is different. Expect its
Sol (PEN) currency as well as its USD denominated bonds to come under pressure today Monday when European
trading opens. Equally, the way in which a bad-but-manageable crisis has flared up since market closed Friday means
Peru domiciled equities will also have a hard time tomorrow. Look to local market index tracker ETF "EPU", or banking
group "BAP" for downside potential. As for our focus sector, expect Peru based and US traded Buenaventura (BVN) to
be sold off tomorrow, but this may be a buying opportunity. Working mine operations, particularly those in remote
locations, are one of the least affected business sectors by this purely political crisis and those of you with an eye for a
bargain may want to consider an entry (I am tempted, even though its market cap is too big for a normal IKN Weekly
trade). Regarding juniors, those with positive free cash flow operations also will be okay in the medium-term, as will
those companies with cash and projects to explore and develop. Harder hit will be companies with developed projects
now looking for funding, as the political risk optics are not good if this crisis goes on any longer. Examples include Bear
Creek (BCM.v) at Corani and potentially Minera IRL (MIRL.cse) at Ollachea, though a financing package may (in fact
should) be close to complete by now. No matter whether from the political right or left, the chances of a South American
country attracting FDI drops sharply when it is run by dangerous clowns.
As for my personal position, even if there is knee-jerk selling in companies that don't deserve it I am holding through on
all Peru exposure (these days that's chiefly MIRL and KUYA, with minor TORO.v and TK.v). With the exception of MIRL,
25

which I hold through for other reasons, the others are funded explorecos that will carry on regardless. A medium-term
perspective allows Peru today to be compared to Chile and its revolt this time last year and, as Chile is as attractive as
ever for mining companies, so will Peru be again. However, be clear that Peru exposed stocks of all types are likely to
come under pressure in trading this week.
The IKN Weekly IKN599 will be with you tomorrow evening. Its delay, for logistical reasons, also gives the chance to
watch the fast-moving developments in Peru and perhaps bring better news in a country update tomorrow.
I rudely presume your patience, Best, Mark
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
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Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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