IKN #598Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 598, November 8th 2020
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In today’s edition, Covid-19 is bad for your wealth, Gold will see
us through November.
Fundamental Analysis: Time to be bullish (buying KUYA.cse, RIO.v, NOM.cse ORE.v), New
Gold (NGD) 3q20 financials.
Stocks to Follow: Kuya Silver (KUYA.case), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Norsemont Mining (NOM.cse),
Orezone Gold Corp, Cartier Resources (ECR.v), Excelsior Mining (MIN.to), Minera Alamos
(MAI.v), Tinka Resources (TK.v), Minera IRL (MIRL.cse).
Copper Basket: Overview, Regulus Resources (REG.v), Copper Mountain (CMMC.to).
Producer Basket: Overview, Newmont (NEM) vs Barrick (GOLD), Buenaventura (BVN).
Tiny Dogs: Overview, Manitou Gold (MTU.v).
Regional Politics: The Strategic Plan for the Development of Argentine Mining begins, Chile
H1 production costs drop sharply due to Covid-19, Peru tries to “vacate” its President again,
Hurricane Eta: Extensive damage in Central America, Bolivia: Luis Arce dodges the dynamite
and is sworn in.
Market Watching: Episode fifty-eight of “What I’d Buy Now”.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
“
Trade heads-up
In light of the market reception to the news of a Biden win, which sets up a double tailwind for
gold and triple for the stocks, in the coming week I plan the following purchases:
 Buying Kuya Silver (KUYA.cse)
 Adding to Top Pick Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v)
 Adding to Norsemont Mining (NOM.to) (again)
 Adding to Orezone Gold Corp (ORE.v)
See today’s main Fundies section for the reasons.
In today’s edition
 As noted above, some significant buys planned for the week ahead and we consider the
whys and wherefores in today’s main Fundamentals section.
 Also in today’s main fundies section, aftera 3q20 report that induced some selling, we
need to explain why New Gold (NGD) still good for the IKN target price of U$2.80.
Forget the cash flow, this is all about the assets.
 They are generally too big in market cap terms for a juniors publication to follow on an
active level, but the Producers Basket today has a quick show on Buenaventura, which
1

looks particularly good value at the moment. Its Q3 results were better than many
people thought. There’s also a thought about Manitou (MTU.v) as a spec trade in ‘Tiny
Dogs’ this week, even bullish spec prospects on Regulus (REG.v) and Copper Mountain
(CMMC.to) in The Copper Basket, but the real story is that we are suddenly in a target-
rich environment. Fire at will.
 The main ‘Regional Politics’ news on mining last week came out of Argentina, we
consider its Strategic Plan initiative and for a change, it’s a government plan on mining
that might have a shot.
Covid-19 is bad for your wealth
And your health. Despite the newly bullish view for PM stocks, you’re getting a word of warning
about how the current political theatre is far from harmless, we as investors need to be wary of
the potential for a double-dip market crash. No matter whether you are pleased with or
resigned to the fact that Joe Biden is President-elect of The United States of America, any
extended petulance shown by current President Trump is no mere sideshow and the longer it
goes on, the worse things will get for The USA as it battles a sharp rise of Covid-19 cases in the
last two weeks with many regions now reporting uncontrolled community spreading. We may
see a lower eventual death toll than the first flush earlier this year, now the virus is better
understood and there are several treatment alternatives, but we know deaths will increase and
the healthcare system of the country is going to be tested to unnecessary limits. This without
mentioning the worrisome rise in cases now seen in Canada, but at least they have a
government concentrating on the problem.
Sticking to The USA, as the current admin has done more to fan the flames in recent weeks
than quell them we need to look elsewhere, and Biden is reported to be launching his Pandemic
Task Force tomorrow Monday. Indeed, his transition website is already up (1) and lists four
main policy points in order; Covid-19, economic recovery, racial equality, climate change so feel
free to enjoy the other items that list another day. Today is for the urgent matter, Biden has 72
days before he can implement anything at full national level of coordination and for any change
in direction in the fight against Covid-19 to be effective, there needs to be at least some co-
operation from the current administration, at the very least a tacit agreement to sign off on key
matters. If Trump cannot even concede defeat to his opponent, it’s a tough call to imagine such
co-operation and as such, it’s on the outgoing admin to do something and fast about the spread
of Covid-19. That does not augur well and even those with better grace than I and able to give
Trump time to get over his denial (his ego size is not a secret), may have to consider the point
at which denial becomes wilful obstruction. How much death is too much death, America?
Long and short of the matter: If The USA doesn’t get its Covid-19 problem under control and
soon, the recession that started in March and has been papered over by US Dollars is only
going to get longer and deeper. Please consider across Europe this weekend, as lockdowns and
travel restrictions great and small. For example, The UK this weekend is into the first days of its
four week ‘circuit breaker’ lockdown which may be advertised about saving lives, but be in no
doubt, it’s the economy stupid. The British stats people have done their math; their four week
lockdown will cost The UK dearly but it’s cheaper than the alternative and every Northern
industrialized nation, large or small, is going to have to make their call based on their
circumstances. In the case of The USA, look no further for the cause of future double dips or
deepening troughs in the Dow, the Dollar or even silver (there, I said it). And let us be clear,
stimulus programs may have papered the cracks to now but this is not a V-shaped recovery.
We are in a world recession, if The USA goes full-scale health crisis it makes a bad thing worse.
Gold is seeing us through November
With the downside risk pointed out, we get to the bullish side of today’s edition. Gold’s action
last week was good without being great and we rather drifted into the Friday close, not the
voracious appetite that would signal a return to Full Bull. Not making any calls on gold though,
more pleasing was last weekend’s call not to trade around the U.S. election as I would have
made expensive mistakes (note to self: stick to knitting). As for precious metals stocks, we have
2

a market that got used to a Dem Pres faster than I thought it would. The GOP controlled
Senate now has a Georgian asterisk next to it, but the market approved of the power and Biden
is considered a known entity. Overall, the week as theoretically mapped out on these pages
was further evidence that I’m nobody’s trader but once again, own gold and all errors are
forgiven:
Your author’s call that a Biden victory wouldn’t necessarily be bad for gold was left in the dust,
with a $50/oz re-rate Friday. However, it was nothing to do with sudden demand for the Safe
Haven and all to do with this:
The US Dollar tracked lower on the news, a predictable result of a Democrat Party victory. On
this, market consensus on the week ahead* is for more USD, positive for all metals including
the monetary one. As for our GLD tracking charts, they sound a small warning toward the end
of the week:
3

GLD gold holdings, 2020 to date (metric tonnes)
1400
1350
1300
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
4
02/1/2 02/1/21 02/1/22 02/2/1 02/2/11 02/2/12 02/3/2 02/3/21 02/3/22 02/4/1 02/4/11 02/4/12 02/5/1 02/5/11 02/5/12 02/5/13 02/6/01 02/6/02 02/6/03 02/7/01 02/7/02 02/7/03 02/8/9 02/8/91 02/8/92 02/9/8 02/9/81 02/9/82 02/01/8 02/01/81 02/01/82
mt
source: SPDR GLD data
7.60 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2020 to date
7.40
7.20
7.00
6.80
6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80
5.60
2/1 21/1 22/1 1/2 11/2 12/2 2/3 21/3 22/3 1/4 11/4 12/4 1/5 11/5 12/5 13/5 01/6 02/6 03/6 01/7 02/7 03/7 9/8 91/8 92/8 8/9 81/9 82/9 8/01 81/01 82/01
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
While overall holdings at the insto’s front door for gold, i.e. the major bullion ETF ticker GLD,
rose slightly to 1,260.3mt, the gold price ran faster which dropped the Inventory/Price ratio
down under the 7X line for the first time since September. This may simply be Wall St. types
being too busy with equities to consider a gold trade and I’m not reading too much into two
days’ worth of soft trading after a major election. OTOH, we would like to see that line rebound
in the days ahead. The price adjustment due to the change in USD has to be confirmed by
interest in gold, else it’ll get walked back.
Your gold demand caveat is now in place. Your Covid-19 health warning in The USA caveat is
now in place. Time to be bullish.
*Goldman Sachs published a paper Thursday evening, by Friday morning and everyone else was pretending they’d
already come to the same conclusion. Much talk about a stronger Yuan in the future.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Time to be bullish
The market reaction to the Biden win has been clear, the USD was dumped toward its recent
floor levels and I’d expect that 92 to come under pressure this week. Meanwhile, Mr. Market is
also factoring in the message of required co-operation from Biden to a(n ostensibly at least until
Georgia’s governor races are finally settled at some point in the distant future) G.O.P. controlled
Senate, plus the public works and infrastructure re-build plans that will require both funding
and then the commodities with which to build things. I honestly could not think of a more
bullish combination of tailwinds for precious metals stocks of all stripes and, if you are in my
position, it is time to get longer this market. Here come a few words on the three main metals
being considered today, by way of further explanation of this new near-term bullish stance:
I am bullish gold: That’s nothing new of course, but this is near-term too as there’s every
reason to expect a new leg up. My current baseline of ‘$2k gold by mid 2021’ may turn out to

be too conservative as the market turns gold as a valid alternative to a declining dollar, in
normal and standard fashion. This is why I’m adding to RIO.v, NOM.cse and ORE.v.
I am bullish on silver, in the near-term at least. My reservations about silver as a trade
vehicle have dissipated, to the point where I’m now near-term bullish on the metal. Is this a
180° turnaround? It may seem like it from the outside, in fact the change of position is due to
my main concern being lifted. The triple tailwind coming for the precious metals sector means
that, for the near-term at least, we going to have renewed appetite for silver as an
investment/trading vehicle from larger instos. That means SLV trading with volume again and…
…Thursday was the first time SLV traded over 50m units since the waterfall sell-off in mid-
September. Friday was also good at 32m without being great, but this desk expects the penny
to drop and more volume move into SLV when trading resumes next week (Edit Sunday
evening: Silver has kicked higher by around 1.1% in early overnight trading, so far this is
panning out). As we’ve shown by gauging silver market supply and demand dynamics on more
than one occasion, upside to silver depends on out-sized investment or speculator appeal.
Those are the moments when the metal shoots higher and all arrows point to it doing just that
in the weeks to come.
The bottom line is, I’d be dumb to remain bearish silver in such a market scenario. When the
upcoming silver move runs out of steam let’s talk again, but as from today consider me bullish
silver in the near term. This is why I am buying Kuya Silver (KUYA.cse) in the week ahead.
I still have my reservations on copper. We’ve seen a decent anticipatory move already,
and while the weak dollar helps everything in dollar terms, the main customer for copper these
days does its business in one of the currencies most likely to strengthen hard against the USD.
China’s influence on copper is the reason why, for the moment at least, I prefer to concentrate
my efforts on the precious metals.
The trades: As such I plan to deploy most but not all of the capital left in reserve (as noted in
previous editions) on four trades. All precious metals, all junior developers, but also all known
entities to these pages. Notes below:
 Buying Kuya Silver (KUYA.cse): This is the easiest, I simply refer you to IKN 596
dated October 25th, two editions ago. The legwork on why KUYA stands out as a silver
trade potential is in the NOBS report of that day, there’s a lot to like about the company
and the way it’s going about its business, I’m not getting the cheapest prices but
frankly, that’s my fault.
 Adding to Top Pick Rio Alto (RIO.v): Although a big position, RIO.v is still buyable
at under a Loonie in 2020, its share price keeps hitting a wall around now and dropping
back to the 80c to 83c level. As such I won’t be buying this one first thing tomorrow
morning, it tends to drift lower during the trading day and there’s opportunity to poach
5

cheap shares. Adding these in small dosages during the week will keep me out of
trouble, but more seriously we are now coming into a more active period for the
company, on development and financing fronts. Now is the time to position and with a
potential entry point that doesn’t affect my cost average. Much.
 Adding to Norsemont Mining (NOM.cse): Consider this trade as separate to the
main one, which is already large. I plan on buying shares to flip back to the market as
momentum is back in NOM and if there are shorts left to cover, this could become
interesting very quickly. Just as stomach-churning sharp drops are part of the normal,
I’ve lost count of the number of shares I’ve owned that have sprung 50% or more in
one week, or have doubled in a month. If NOM runs, I will sell and take profits on this
trading portion alone, this trade does not affect my long-term NOM investment, as seen
in Stocks to Follow to date.
 Adding to Orezone Gold Corp (ORE.v) Inc: This one requires a little explanation. It
may be serendipity, as we finally get news out of Orezone (ORE.v) last week after 12
weeks of corporate silence. Last week’s NR, dated November 4th (2), is the first since
August 11th (12 weeks). The final short form base shelf prospectus is to raise up to
C$150m and will complete the list as seen in the company’s latest corporate
presentation:
Later in same presentation, ORE lays out its upcoming catalysts:
In other words, as gold moves higher we are going from zero pieces of significant news
to three, with particularly the second and third bound to cause a re-rating in the stock
price and according to the timeline, all in 2020. As for the construction plans, be clear
that unlike many other juniors that headfake or represent that they will take their
project to construction, Pady and his team are deadly serious and are not entertaining
any talk or thoughts of takeovers. We like that a lot. We bought ORE.v as cheap
leverage during the Full Bull gold run and, due to its relative success plus potential,
held onto when others such as GPR or JAG were sold for their useful trading profits. Its
fallow news period is now over and the market reacted well to news of the shelf
financing. I’m adding here to complement the other trades and add extra, near-term
leverage but unlike NOM above, this addition becomes part of the current trade. If the
moment comes to sell, higher or lower, I’ll sell them all at once.
6

The bottom line: The market is now highly conducive to precious metals stock trades and I
will act accordingly, adding to three positions and opening a new position in Kuya Silver as from
this week. That means 16 stocks on the list until Tinka leaves, but as that will be very soon I
beg your forgiveness.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
New Gold (NGD) 3q20 financials
In IKN595 dated October 18th, we took a close look at the 3q20 production numbers from the
Turnaround Story of the Year (a label that others, including the company is now using) New
Gold (NGD). At the time of the production NR dated October 13th (3), we approved of the
numbers and looked forward to the company reporting its quarter. That happened on Thursday,
November 5th, which means we also had a full day of trading Friday to greet the news
No sugarcoat, NGD underperformed over Q3 earnings season. Up to last Wednesday and with
leverage understood, NGD was following the trend of the sector (GDX proxy), but the
combination of the NGD financials, the increasing levels of certainty around the USA election
count and the subsequent rally in gold saw NGD zag South when the rest of the sector zigged
North. In so many words, the market was not wowed by this desk’s choice for midcap gold
exposure and that needs addressing today. Here comes the numbercrunch:
We begin with operations and the quickest of nods toward the production data we ran in
IKN595:
NGD: Gold production vs Sales, Oz per qtr
Nothing new in those, simple repeats of the charts in IKN595, look in that edition for details.
Here’s where the money starts with the earnings overview:
7
41006 60106 12647 58407 19167 41657 25869 65048 91108 00109 86958 45948 99029 99768 94676 95527 51576 92596 72156 26616 61208 49867
NGD: New Afton copper production and sales, per qtr
110000
100000 Total Au prod
90000 Total Au sales
80000
70000
60000
50000 40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1q18 2q18 3q18 4q18 1q19 2q19 3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20
source: NGD filings, IKN calcs
2.22 3.12 4.02 6.91 7.12 5.02 8.02 7.91 5.91 2.02 6.12 3.81 1.02 6.02 3.81 3.71 5.81 7.71 9.61 3.51 2.81 5.71
Mlb Cu
24
Cu prod 22
Cu sales 20
18
16
14
12 10 8
6
4
2
0
1q18 2q18 3q18 4q18 1q19 2q19 3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20
source: NGD filings, IKN ests

NGD: Quarterly Earnings Overview
8
9.761
9.68 2.16 8.91
1.551
1.58 6.35 4.61
4.861
7.49 4.16 3.21
2.931
2.501
4.46 4.03-
3.241
7.98 25
6.0
5.821
2.66 6.04 7.12
7.371
7.68
7.94
3.73
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50 25
0
-25
-50
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3
$m
revenues
op-ex
deprec/deplet
Mine Op Earnings
source: company filings
Topline revenues of U$173.7m compared to the IKN estimate of U$175m. All good.
 Costs at $86.7m were U$10.7m higher than the house model. It was always going to
be difficult estimating this number as the company ramps back up under new and more
expensive Covid-19 operating conditions. Bottom line: Guessed wrong.
 DD&A at U$49.7m was U$7.7m higher than the IKN model. What this shows above all
is the quick return to full operations after the Covid-19 hit, the house model adjusted to
the downside too much.
 Miner Operating Earnings at U$37.3m was therefore around $20m lower than the
house model, for the combo of higher costs and higher depletion/depreciation.
Effects on costs came with three major NGD: Finance cost, per qtr
25
headwinds: The ramp back up toward full 21.5
production, the extra cost of operating in our 20 16.7 17.8 17.5 17.1 16.5 16.5
new normal, plus any costs from the large 15.3
15 14.3 13.5 14
scale financial re-structuring that’s been going
on. The two former influences added to costs, 10
as for the latter we saw financials take a one-
5
time extra of around $7m due to transaction
costs on the re-structuring. 0
We can expect finance costs to drop back
under U$14m as from this coming quarter,
meanwhile the above extra cost was mostly cancelled out by a non-cash $7.5m credit
generated from the sale of Blackwater. Once minor items were done, operating earnings came
in at $17.7m, or just over 4c/share:
NGD: Operating earnings per share
cents
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00
-0.01
-0.02
-0.03
-0.04
-0.05
-0.06
1q19 2q19 3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20
source: company financials/IKNcalcs
However, that’s already too far into the weeds to see the main point about NGD’s quarter,
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3
U$m
source: company filings

which we will do via a stop at the statement of cash flows:
NGD: Cash generated from operations, per qtr
9
1.15 36
3.47
2.05
1.19
9.74 3.15 8.25
2.29
U$m
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
3q18 4q18 1q19 2q19 3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20
source: company filings
In the IKN595 production and earning preview our guesstimate for the 3q20 cash generated
was U$116m, which means the guess was out by U$23.8m. That’s a lot but a miss of that size
isn’t likely to happen again, so I’m cutting myself some slack for a quarter as several key line
items were bent out of by Covid-19 concerns, operations re-ramping and the finish of corporate
financials re-vamp. The same excuses don’t work for 4q20, though.
For what it’s worth, a closer look at the NGD 3q20 statement of cash flows shows one-time
items that just about cancel each other out and the $92.2m isn’t an accountant’s fantasy,
there’s real substance and at an average received price for gold that will jump around U$300/oz
as from 1q21 when the financial hedging comes off. The only comparable quarter is 3q19, but
that was more of an accountancy construct as in 3q19, NGD’s bloated and expensive financial
corporate structure sucked away gross margins. There are several ways to illustrate the
improvement, let’s go with the blunt weapon: One year ago, $91.1m in cash generated from
operations became a U$24.7m loss. In 3q20 it’s a U$15.7m net profit and $40m that stays
inside NGD instead of going other places. As these long-dated charts shows, NGD has made
consistent (though modest) operating profits year in, year out. It’s the net number that hurts.
NGD: Mine Op. Earnings
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
Assets and liabilities next up, these
overview charts include house projections for the next four quarters as, so far at least, the
market hasn’t woken up to just how much free cash flow NGD is likely to throw off at current
gold prices. Our model expects NGD to organically add around U$250m in net asset value
(NAV) to end 3q21:
31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3
$m NGD: Net Earnings 200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500
-600
-700
-800
-900
source: company filings, IKN ests
31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
NGD: Assets per qtr
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 tse02q4 tse12q1 tse12q2 tse12q3
$m fixed NGD: Liabilities
2200
other current
2000 cash & eq
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
source: company filings
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 tse02q4 tse12q1 tse12q2 tse12q3
U$m other LT liabilities
LT debt
current liabilities
source: company filings

We expect them to be able to collect cash, as well as pay for the final stages of the capex build-
outs at RR and NA, which we assume piles up in treasury:
While long-term debt, the place where we’ll see the obligations drawn down, lose over $100m
NGD: LT debt, per qtr
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
10
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 tse02q4 tse12q1 tse12q2 tse12q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
The results show where they most matter. For
the first time since forever (barring 3q19 when
they raised capital), NGD added to its book value
last quarter. With profitable operations and a
fixed balance sheet, that will continue as seen
here (right). Finally, after all the above, we get
to the two most important charts of today’s anal
ysis of NGD. Because NGD has now turned the
corner, expect it to collect cash and then collect
it quickly next year. Meanwhile it adds asset
value by exploration and optimization at NA and
RR, the result is a projected BV/share of $1.69:
NGD: Book value per share, per quarter
66.1 16.1 55.1 24.1 24.1 93.1 42.1 52.1 53.1 84.1 85.1 96.1
2.20
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 tse02q4 tse12q1 tse12q2 tse12q3
NGD: Cash treasury per qtr
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
U$m
source: company filings
71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 tse02q4 tse12q1 tse12q2 tse12q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
NGD: Working Capital per qtr
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 tse02q4 tse12q1 tse12q2 tse12q3
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
NGD: Book value
3.959 4.929 3.398 5.759 3.169 8.839 7.738 5.648 019 0001
0701 0411
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 tse02q4 tse12q1 tse12q2 tse12q3
U$m
source: company filings, NYSE data

As New Gold is now out of the penalty box and being given the type of valuation afforded to
correctly run companies, this shows in its P/Bv:
2.2 NGD: Price/Book ratio
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
11
21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 WON
source: company data, NYSE, IKN calcs
Nowhere else shows the 2020 turnaround better than this chart, but the latest data also
suggest a tailing off of the improvement. That is to be expected and our U$2.80 target as
stands doesn’t ask the Earth, that U$1.69 book value per share would only need a 1.65X
multiple to get NGD shares trading at U$2.80.
Discussion and conclusion
For the sake of brevity, I’m going to use a small short-cut in today’s report. Here we step back
and consider a different aspect of NGD’s operations, rather than its financials, that are now
showing promise using a slide from the webcast presentation from last week (4). There’s
another corporate-style presentation up on the main page (5) as well and while any NGD long
should digest the whole presentation you get just one:
Now that the corporate turnaround is largely complete, NGD is at a new stage in its corporate
life and CEO Adams was keen to transmit that point throughout the CC. That will reflect not
only in its operations and results, but also the way its stock price performs and that, above all
else, is what I’d like fellow longs in NGD to take away after reading this update report on the
company. No false modesty, but unlike many others NGD is a company I’ve called well over the

years, first staying well away while its poor financials nearly broke the company and then
catching the right turn point to enjoy most of the recovery. That was admittedly aided by the
Full Bull gold run which supercharged all wins in the PM sector but fundamentally speaking,
NGD under Renaud Adams has executed on all the things it had under its control. Coincidentally
or otherwise, NGD is now at its next point of inflexion and its stock price behaviour is likely to
change as a result. In much the same way Wesdome (WDO.to) shares earlier enjoyed first an
expansive then a more mature growth phase, so to NGD now. The company has made its
intentions clear, from now it optimizes what it has and that is music to my fundamental ears, as
stock price appreciation in established operations is all about the book value. We can
summarize NGD’s plans along two broad paths:
1) Adding reserve/resource and mine life to both Rainy River and New Afton. This via
two methods, first by spending cash on drilling and quasi-brownfields exploration but with the
Price/Book now healthily over 1.0X this is excellent news and can add share price value quickly
to any company. Your ballpark example: If you manage to drill and discover new gold ounces at
a total exploration cost of U$75/oz. As the totality of Rainy River is carried at around U$500/oz
incl FY20 DDA, with ounces carried at U$150/oz, our simple model adds $4m NAV for every
million spent on exploration just on the ounces. . These are the circumstances under which VP
Explorations get U$30m annual budgets after having previously survived on $2m/qtr and have
great years.
A second and more immediate way NGD is set to add reserve/resources life is by moving the
goalposts, but it’s all fair and square so be prepared for a price pop early next year when it
publishes these numbers. NGD made it clear its current U$1,275/oz gold price resource cut-off
is too low, particularly at the open pit Rainy River where a move up to U$1,400/oz or even
U$1,500/oz gold would turn a lot of waste into ore. RR started the year with just over 1.9m oz
M+I, come the updated resource report that could go a lot higher. The other benefit of a higher
gold price assumption is that as the grade cut-off drops, it makes the job of mining at RR easier
and op-ex drops when the COO doesn’t need to be as selective.
2) Increase and optimize production: With standard gold price caveats, in the most direct
sense more gold produced means better top line revenues. Then economies of scale, along with
the optimization programs outlined by NGD in its Q3 earnings literature, are all about improved
margins. When you operate at strong margins, there’s more Free Cash Flow (FCF) and it’s at
that point we should worry too much about what happens to the money (as long as it’s normal
biz, of course) because a) paying your taxes improves your balance sheet, spending money on
sustaining capex improves your balance sheet, sending the money to treasury improves your
balance sheet. As Rainy River has recently returned to 2021 production levels and New Afton
benefit in from its earlier capex injection, there’s every reason to believe 2021 sees NGD guide
higher production.
We’ve run the numbers on the effects of what we expect to be better gold production…
OzAu NGD: Quarterly gold production
140000
130000
120000 Gold NA
110000
100000 Gold RR
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21
source: NGD filings, IKN ests
…at first U$1,900/oz and then U$2,000/oz as from 2q21, there are plenty of charts already
available but perhaps this one, with a net of all operations as its four-quarter objective, shows
12

the story best. From today’s working capital of U$400.3m to an IKN-forecast U$535m as at end
3q21, NGD would add U$134.7m (20c per share) to its NAV. The combination of 1) NGD
operating at strong profits and 2) NGD optimizing and adding value to its assets under 3) the
gold price environment we predict brings this company to the IKN Weekly share price target of
U$2.80 from this point. Less exciting I know, so if you want excitement think about how you
normally spend profits.
At 676.024m shares out and this weekend’s U$1.97 ticket, NGD has a market cap of U$1.332Bn
and that looks cheap to me. The key is to understand that unless it becomes an M&A target, it’s
going to take the year we prefer as timescale for price targets. Just as turnaround phase has
finished, so has explosive growth phase and as such, it’s your call on what to do with your
money. Personally I hold, as there is plenty of corporate strength to get to U$2.80 (+ 40%
from here) in 2021 and NGD will remain as a Stock to Follow until circumstances change.
However, your investment stripes and requirements are often different and anyone who takes
money off the table isn’t going to hear a single word of pushback from The IKN Weekly.
Stocks to Follow
A good week for the portfolio, thanks to eleven winners (not listing them) next to two losers
(NGD, MIRL.cse), with two other stocks remaining unchanged on the week (MIN.to, AUL.v).
There were plenty of big winners in the list as well, so in percentage gain order it’s Norsemont
(NOM.cse up 23.7%), Cartier (ECR.v up 22.2%), Top Pick Rio2 (RIO.v up 14.8%), Top Pick
Minera Alamos (MAI.v up 14.7%), Pucara Gold (TORO.v up 12.5%), Trilogy (TMQ up 10.3) and
just for good measure, let’s add Orezone (ORE.v up 9.2%). Getting those big moves out of the
biggest positions (except NGD) made for strong paper profits in the portfolio, it’s tough as an
investor to complain about the reaction to the election, especially as I didn’t expect a gold move
on a Biden win. Note to self: Stick to knitting.
Until Tinka Resources leaves as planned, we have 15 open positions and that’s our self-imposed
maximum barring the occasions when I can make up a good excuse. Ten are in the green, five
are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.78 271.4% New $1.14 tgt Aug'20 #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.81 22-Apr-18 C$0.93 14.8% $1.58 tgt, accum now
Recommended stocks (In order of preference)
Fiore Gold F.v STR BUY C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.62 65.3% $2.00 target, small growth PM
New Gold NGD BUY U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$1.97 159.2% re-upped tgt $2.80
Norsemont Mining NOM.cse STR BUY C$1.61 6-Sep-20 C$1.46 -9.3% New large position, Q4 buy
Great Bear Res GBR.v STR BUY C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$16.56 4.6% M&A major tgt, added IKN590
Trilogy Metals TMQ BUY U$1.78 15-Set-19 U$1.72 -3.4% Permit received. Holding thru
Excelsior Mining MIN.to BUY C$0.95 10-Mar-19 C$0.63 -33.7% delayed re-rate, we hold thru
Royal Road Min. RYR.v spec buy C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.405 161.3% Good progress in Nica
Orezone ORE.v BUY C$0.77 21-Jun-20 C$0.95 23.4% Now in news period, trade buy
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.18 -7.7% 25c first tgt on Cofide deal
Cartier Resources ECR.v Hold/Sell? C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.275 77.4% out of time
Aurelius Res AUL.v spec buy C$0.075 28-Jun-20 C$0.08 6.7% small spec drillplay
Pucara Gold TORO.v wait to add C$0.80 4-Oct-20 C$0.81 1.3% Will add at under 65c
Tinka Res TK.v SELLING C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.175 -10.3% SELL ON NOV'20 DRILL NR
Short positions
13

no current short positions
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for some notes on our covered stocks:
Kuya Silver (KUYA.case), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Norsemont Mining (NOM.cse), Orezone
Gold Corp (ORE.v): BUYING/ADDING. A quick official line, see above for more.
Cartier Resources (ECR.v): THINKING ABOUT SELLING: First address my persistent
typo: Once again last week, I twice wrote “Chimu” instead of “Chimo” as the name of the main
ECR asset. For what it’s worth, “Chimu” is the name of one of the regional scale geological
structures in Peru and I get confused easily. As for the rest, part of the review of positions this
week brought my eye back, time and again, to the relatively poor performance of ECR since its
first flush move. With several other purchases planned, including a new position in KUYA, this is
the one that I’d probably sell to make way for the next name once TK has disappeared.
Excelsior Mining (MIN.to): This Tuesday November 10th is the MIN AGM, which means we’re
about to end the news drought from the company. So far at least, these pages have played the
“patience” card and, having also been a poor caller of copper related matters this year, your
author decided several weeks ago to let MIN the time it requires to work on its project start-up
and reconfigure in these Covidian times. Notably, the company is being conservative and
prudent too, having only awarded 3% of the possible 10% incentive options during its financial
year, that’s what transparent teams do to align with other stakeholders, but I’d expect them to
use a few this week. On the subject of the AGM, as from now patience takes a back seat and
we require more information, data and guidance on what to expect from MIN in what’s left of
2020 and 2021. The potential value from any re-rate could make this a rocket ship to own, as
on paper the Gunnison ISL asset will run strong margins at U$3.00/lb gold. That’s only potential
though, MIN now has to deliver on its promises.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Our Top Pick and your author’s biggest position closed at new ATHs
on Friday, which is good. This may be in anticipation of the (quasi-maiden) resource expected
14

on the new Cerro de Oro property, as according to Doug Ramshaw it should be out in the next
few days. That means this week, as MAI rarely leaves its audience hanging. Wish they were all
this easy.
Tinka Resources (TK.v): We should get drill assays this month. The selling window then
opens. Glad they aren’t all like this one.
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): With the latest timer clock on MIRL now out, under normal
circumstances we should get news pre-bell tomorrow morning on the agreement with Cofide.
With luck, we’ll be able to run the overdue update on MIRL next weekend (but it won’t be all
the Weekly, far too boring otherwise).
The Copper Basket
After 45 weeks of 2020, The Copper Basket shows a 41.67% gain to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Capstone Min CS.to 0.76 399.598 735.26 1.84 142.1%
2 Imperial Metals III.to 2.06 128.49 393.18 3.06 48.5%
3 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 3.38 138.905 309.76 2.23 -34.0%
4 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.45 181.52 246.87 1.36 202.2%
8 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 0.71 191.3 242.95 1.27 78.9%
5 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 1.625 64.358 218.17 3.39 108.6%
6 Western Copper WRN.to 1.07 107.586 151.70 1.41 31.8%
7 Excelsior Min. MIN.to 1.00 238.658 150.35 0.63 -37.0%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.28 101.85 141.57 1.39 8.6%
10 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.59 180.169 95.49 0.53 -10.2%
11 Chakana Cop PERU.v 0.245 93.2 50.33 0.54 120.4%
12 Atico Mining ATY.v 0.31 119.023 49.99 0.42 35.5%
13 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.47 77.636 34.94 0.45 -4.3%
14 Doré Copper DCMC.v 1.25 31.798 21.62 0.68 -45.6%
15 Chibougamau CBG.v 0.17 46.695 6.30 0.135 -20.6%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 41.67%
Copper joined the party last week, our
60% The Copper Basket 2020, weekly evolution
average springing hard to above 40% for 50%
40%
the second time this year. Only one loser
30%
(WRN.to) and one UNCH (MIN.to), the 20%
10%
rest were up with the best moves from
0%
Aldebaran (ALDE.v up 32.3%), Oroco -10%
-20%
(OCO.v up 17.2%), Regulus (REG.v up
-30%
16.8%), Chakana (PERU.v 16.1%) in what -40%
was close to mirror image action to the -50%
-60%
week before.
This was driven by the return of the
copper rally. Better than gold, copper’s
November 4th fluctuations show the type of indecision that hung in the air but once things
began to resolve in a way that markets like (to now), copper set fair and enjoyed a strong 24
hour rally Friday, starting in Asia and finishing at the closing bell. Bulls could not have asked for
much more and by Friday, talk of how copper was lower on a Biden victory had been largely
erased from the internet (saw plenty Wednesday, found just this one today Sunday (6)). The
new bullish line being that Dems like big govt, the Biden plan will promote public infrastructure
works, they need commodities. Whatever, I’ll take it, how that stops the recession in the US
15
ts13ceD ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 ts1ram ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5rpa ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yam ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7nuj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5luj ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2gua ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6pes ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4tco ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1von ht8
source: IKN calcs

winter is yet to be seen but I suppose even a 77 year old deserves a few days of honeymoon.
Time for the regular check on copper inventory data, data from Chile’s reliable except for
copper price forecasts Cochilco:
 World copper stocks dropped a modest 6,143 metric tonnes (-1.6%), a quiet week but
enough to keep the trend lower intact. This weekend’s grand total is 377,339mt.
 The most interesting move came from the SHFE, which again dropped away from the
150k line by losing 8,336mt (-6.0%) to close the week at 131,321mt. That’s enough to
keep the market with half an eye on potential supply shortages and helped support
copper’s good week at market.
 At the LME, a small 1,150mt increase in stocks, which saw total stocks close at
172,450mt.
 Finally, another 1,043mt are added to Comex stocks, the total 73,568mt. Another week,
nothing doing.
The Shanghai-only inventories chart shows that dip. Unlike conjecture over the US market for
copper, China seems as voracious as ever, see below for the excerpt of this (7):
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, Dec'16 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
16
6102
dr3naj
ts13 ht82 ht72 ht42 dn22 ht91 ht71 ht41 ht11 ht9 ht6voN ht11 ht8 ht5beF 7102
ht5raM
dn2rpA ht03 ht82 ht52 dr32 ht02 ht71 ht51 ht21 ht01 8102
ht7naj
ht4bef 8102
ht4ram
8102
ts1rpa
ht92 dr3nuj 8102
ts1yluj
ht92 ht62 dr32 ts12tco ht81 ht61 ht31naj ht01 ht01 9102
ht7rpa
ht5yam 9102
dn2nuj
ht03 ht82 102ht52pes dn22 ht02 9102ht71von ht51 0202ht21naj ht9 ht8 ht5rpa 0202dr3yam ht13 ht82 0202ht62luj dr32 ht02 ht81
Mt Cu
source: Cochilco
Arrivals of unwrought copper and copper products stood at 618,108 tonnes last month,
the General Administration of Customs said. That was down 14.4% from 722,450
tonnes in September, which was the second-highest monthly level on record, but up
43.4% from 431,000 tonnes a year earlier.

Imports in January-October reached 5.61 million tonnes, up 41.4% year-on-year and
beating the previous record for China’s annual purchases of 5.297 million tonnes in
2018 with two months still to go.
Now for a couple of notes on basket component stocks:
Regulus Resources (REG.v): During one of the virtual conference circuit shows last week
(they all start melding into one after a while), REG said they expected to get assays from two
holes to market before Christmas. That’s good, so we can now give it a reasonable, 50/50
chance of happening (and if not, it happens
January 2021). As such, REG represents decent
risk/reward value on the upcoming drill results
and the rally we saw last week was far from
misplaced.
The company knows there’s a lot riding on the
first hole of this program, as such I’d expect
them to choose one of their prime targets and as
AntaKori has rarely failed to deliver so far,
likelihood is for a successful hole and the ensuing
price pop. Be clear that Regulus, under its
various and expensive G&A strategies (this is not
the lean and mean Antares, one wonders why)
will garner a lot more market radar on receipt of
a big winning drill assay and new shares out and warrants overhangs or not, we’ve seen how it
can run under promo now. Buying this at $1.40 today and selling it above $2.00 before the end
of the year/January is a reasonable speculative game plan at this point. Though not one for me,
it’s another example of the target-rich environment in which we now find ourselves. Then
comes 2021 and further drilling (likely good) and corporate things (the jury is out) but let’s
keep those later, today is more about highlighting REG as a potential near-term fliptrade for
those who care enough.
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to): On the subject of the jury being out:
After its in-line quarter out Tuesday, CMMC was set to be today’s main focus until New Gold
(NGD) took preference. That because, as stupid as I may sound while staring at a stock price
that’s lost its reverse gear since the crash, I am undecided on CMMC due to the thoughts that
the copper bull run has come to an end. For the moment, sticking to gold (and my knitting).
The Producer Basket
After 45 weeks of 2020, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 46.29% to level stakes.
17

company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out Mkt Cap (Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 43.45 819.84 55.86 68.14 56.8%
2 Barrick GOLD 18.59 1779.04 51.36 28.87 55.3%
3 Franco-Nevada FNV 103.30 188.6 28.42 150.70 45.9%
4 Agnico Eagle AEM 61.61 238.985 20.11 84.16 36.6%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.74 1253.5 10.96 8.74 84.4%
6 Royal Gold RGLD 122.25 65.375 8.25 126.17 3.2%
7 Pan American PAAS 23.69 209.61 7.74 36.93 55.9%
8 B2Gold BTG 4.01 1025.75 7.13 6.95 73.3%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 6.02 391.19 3.92 10.02 66.4%
10 Buenaventura BVN 15.10 254.19 3.26 12.84 -15.0%
Prices in U$, NYSE/NASDAQ tickers Portfolio avg 46.29%
We expected good scores from this sector in a week where GDX rises by 10.48%, GDXJ by
12.08% and gold (GLD proxy) by 3.97%. Sure enough, all ten were winners and plenty of big
moves, too. Pan American Silver (PAAS up 16.9%) got a double boost from strong earnings and
a fast silver price move. Franco-Nevada (FNV up 10.4%) also pleased the market with strong
earnings, then came Special K (KGC up 9.7%), not a U$10Bn+ market capper (so help us all).
But despite those moves, we still couldn’t match the improvement the GDX benchmark and lost
around 1.4% of our lead.
The 2020 Producer Basket: Percentage difference between
GDX benchmark and basket (negative = IKN basket ahead)
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
-6.0%
-7.0%
-8.0%
Newmont (NEM) vs Barrick (GOLD): Not much doubt who won the Q3 earnings period to
retain the Top dog award…
…so to be fair to GOLD, I’ve included the GDX line in the above chart Barrick is also out-
performing over earnings season. However, NEM two Fridays ago beat out Barrick’s good-but-
not-great quarter out Friday morning, one which saw some weakness as there was slightly too
much optimism baked in at that point. However, the theme of Tier 1 and 2 companies building
18
ts13ceD ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 ts1ram ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5rpa ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yam ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7nuj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5luj ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2gua ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6pes ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4tco ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1von ht8
The 2020 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
60%
comparative to GDX control
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
source: IKN calc, NYSE/Nasdaq data -30%
-40%
ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 ts1ram ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5rpa ht21 ht91 ht62 r3yam ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7nuj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5luj ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2gua ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6pes ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4tco ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1von ht8
basket
gdx control
source: Google, IKN calcs

cash and/or strengthening balance sheets continues. They don’t seem to be in a hurry to
replace those reserve ounces, no matter how insistent the market gets.
Buenaventura (BVN): If you want a value mid-cap goldie, look no further. BVN was stymied
this year by Covid-19, which hit it harder than most with its pure-Peru production profile.
However, it is also been working through a period of relatively low cash levels and with a
balance sheet in dire need of repair. Here are three charts of the balance sheet currents to
outline today’s BVN:
U$m BVN: Current assets breakdown
700
inventories
600 Trade receivables
cash
98.0
500 108.7
115.1
118.7
400
287.7 185.7
300 168.7 174.7
200
264.8
100 210.0 221.6 195.5
0
4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20
source: company filings
Assets saw a big move up in cash in Q3, the main changer and $69.3m up. Meanwhile at
liabilities, the work done in Q2 to reduce debt servicing levels continued in Q3; BVN has freed
up around U$30m per quarter, in that line item alone:
U$m BVN: Current liabilities breakdown BVN: Working capital position
600 other current debt
fin oblig
500 133.4 Trade payables
129.3
400
153.2
134.9
300 265.7
260.8
200 151.1 141.5
100
166.2 134.2 103.6 137.0
0
4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20
source: company filings
In 3q20, BVN returned a net profit of $27.37m. And while working capital moved up by just
over $21m, the BVN treasury made greater strides and added over U$69m. That’s a notable
move toward cash collection and a clear
change of course from the Victor Gobitz years,
where liquidity was put to use in the company
“De-Bottlenecking” program he ran at nearly
all the company assets. Instead, the
beancounter and Benavides lackey now CEO
has moved to strengthen the balance sheet
and while overall debt is still high at $1.1Bn,
near-term obligations have dropped
substantially over the last six months. This is
the time to buy BVN, it’s generally a sector
laggard due to its share structure (the
Benavides family holds tight control via the
Class A voting shares), but it plays catch-up to
market peers and as a dividend payer, will be
more popular now that cash flow is strongly positive again.
19
459.843
834.092 183.082 605.103
U$m
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20
source: company filings

The Tiny Dogs
Here are our ten and after thirty-five weeks, the average is up by 47.65%:
company ticker price 16/2/20 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 136.26 6.13 0.045 -30.8%
2 Chakana Copper PERU.v 0.175 93.2 50.33 0.54 208.6%
3 Constantine Met CEM.v 0.19 45.35 8.16 0.18 -5.3%
4 Contact Gold C.v 0.175 84.472 12.67 0.15 -14.3%
5 Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.065 230.79 12.69 0.055 -15.4%
6 Salazar Res* SRL.v 0.18 126.55 43.03 0.34 88.9%
7 Radius Gold RDU.v 0.235 86.94 26.08 0.30 27.7%
8 Red Pine Expl RPX.v 0.035 477.22 19.09 0.04 14.3%
9 Warrior Gold WAR.v 0.055 68.2 8.18 0.12 118.2%
10 Wolfden Res WLF.v 0.13 129.532 25.91 0.20 53.8%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV (*SRL price from May 2nd) basket avg 47.65%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list that represents what’s going on in the
whole sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two case I’ve stretched the window a little
and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The basket average improved by 12 points and balanced the 14% drop of the previous week.
There was one loser (CEM.v) and one UNCH stock (RPX.v), which means eight winners and
strong gains from plenty, top prize to Salazar (SRL.v up 17.3%) and the week offers a lesson in
holding through nasty dips in juniors.
Manitou Gold (MTU.v): Manitou announced the start of its next phase of drilling at the 100%
owned Goldreau property where it is now cold
(8) and popped 10% (half a cent) on some
modest buying action Friday. To date in 2020
MTU has shown little, this chart is fairly typical of
the exploreco that keeps swinging and missing.
However, if we trim off the spikes, that’s a 5c to
7c trading range to play with and I’ve seen
worse proposed trades than a quick 40% (pre
commish). The real reason to own stocks like
MTU is their discovery potential and there’s only
one way to test that correctly, to this end the
5,000m program that concentrates on shallow
targets should provide plenty of newsflow in the
next two quarters. With large player sponsorship
to go exploring in its patch (Alamos and O3), there are worse tinycap lottery tickets than this
one in a strong gold market.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It is possible that in the
future I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, but at the moment both my opinion and my wallet are strictly
neutral.
20

Regional politics
The Strategic Plan for the Development of Argentine Mining begins
Thursday was a big day for mining in Basket Case Country, as Minister of Production and
number two power in the Alberto Fernández government, Matías Kulfas, along with Mining
Secretary and main force behind the initiative Alberto Hensel, unveiled the “Strategic Plan for
the Development of Argentine Mining” (9). The plan involves setting up 20 different working
groups by 2021 (they have one month to present their plans to the government, another to get
set up). These working groups will then run for six months, at the end of which they get
together, form consensus and present a law project for a new mining law. If you believe these
people and please do not, we will have new statute as early as 2022.
Frankly, how long over schedule those working group boondoggles go and then what happens
after the working groups report on a national level isn’t so important, what is important is the
opportunity for all sides to debate formally. This will allow provincial progress more quickly and
along with national level politicos, big name provincial politicians were alos on the presentation.
For example Mariano Arcioni, governor of Chubut, who brought a full team of experts and was
the first to speak, who thanked the national bigwigs for the opportunity to develop their minng
industry and continued by calling the Strategic Plan for the Development of Argentine Mining
“…a project that Argentina deserves.”
While the scope of the mining debate is national, it was no coincidence that Arcioni was first to
speak last week. During the last attempt during the Macri government to improve the mining
law in Argentina, Chubut’s then governor de Narvaez was staunchly anti-mining. The rub is that
Arcioni was his second in command and also anti-mining when he took over, but that position
has shifted and in no small measure due to the biggest mining project on the near-term books
in the country. The immediate reaction from Arcioni’s Chubut province and its large and well-
organized anti-mining organizations (plural) was marches and protests in the main population
centres who have watched Arcioni move toward the pro-mining position, but this was the first
time he made an express announcement of support. However, as those people live to the East
(e.g. Trelew in this report (10), Rawson, Puerto Madryn), South (Comodoro Rivadavia) and
West (Esquel), it’s one thing to say “No is No” in your own habitat, another to stop Chubut
province from allowing mining in its central Meseta region, location of the Pan American Silver
(PAAS) Navidad project and the real reason for all the fuss. The object of the debate, the goal
Arcioni is looking for, is to get to the point where the anti-miners are satisfied with the Western
Cordillera region being off-limits to mining, while getting a referendum on allowing mining in
only the central Meseta region.
There are already more measured pro and contra mining voices getting air time in Chubut and
that is good. For example, the mayor of one of the towns in the Central Meseta region of the
province (11) (12), Leonardo Bowman of Telsen, understands the concerns and even agrees
that area such as the West of the Chubut should not see mining. He then makes the sober case
for permitting mining in the sparsely populated and desolate Meseta region, ending with a call
on the national executive to start the debate as soon as possible. However, it’s not going to be
a calm debate and reactions, such as an “escrache” on Friday of a local politician (13) who
came out in favour of Arcioni’s position (mass protests round a public figure’s house, an ugly
and usually left wing intimidation tactic in Argentina) and as this is the Basket Case Country,
that can boil over into worse. Take for example, this report of the riots in Mendoza in December
2019 (14) (less than a year ago) than made the new governor do a 180° U-Turn on allowing
the use of toxic chemicals in mining in the province (photos in the report show “riot” is the
correct word). Governments in Argentina at both national and provincial level will have to step
lightly and make sure they are promoting reasonable debate at all times through this six month
process, else face similar.
All that said, it’s still fair to say that this Fernández government initiative is Pan American
Silver’s best opportunity ever to get Navidad green-lighted. Rather ironic, considering that just a
couple of years ago Ross Beaty was cozying up to ex-President Mauricio Macri in publicly staged
21

encounters in the Presidential Palace. He of the dubious business morals doesn’t want the
meeting with either Alberto or Cristina at the Palace this time, perhaps he’s worked out he
needs to be friendlier at the provincial, rather than the national level. We await the photo-op
with Arcioni.
Chile H1 production costs drop sharply due to Covid-19
Copper miners made serious coin in Chile in 2q20. This week Cochilco reported (15) in the first
six months of 2020, C1 costs for copper production in Chile dropped to a national average of
U$1.21/lb, down 24c (16.6%) from the same period in 2019. Clearly, Covid-19 lockdown
measures were the overriding factor but these manifested into cheaper costs thanks to a
weaker Chilean Peso (CLP) and lower prices for major ticket items such as sulphuric acid* and
diesel fuel. However, as the chart below shows that CLP weakness did not parlay into the
second half of this year and, with companies now having to implement several extra layers of
protocol in order to get back up to 100% production, this is likely to be a blip.
*The Covid-19 lottery has made some locations acid dry, such as SW USA where Excelsior (MIN.to) waits on regular
supply to resume, to here in Chile where excess supply due to export trade closures saw prices drop sharply.
Peru tries to “vacate” its President again
A non-mining piece.
We start by comparing the good performance seen by the CLP against the USD (above) to that
of the Peruvian Sol (PEN), which has dropped sharply for a couple of reasons:
1) Peru has borrowed heavily to public-spend its way out of the recession in true
Keynesian style. Whoever wins next year’s Presidential election is being handed a
balance of payments deficit that will require quick work, as the PEN devaluation is
already being baked in.
2) The country’s populist Congress has taken over the Covid-19 debate and voted to allow
Peruvians access to some of their private pension funds, as held by the “AFP” pension
funds (in some cases near 100% access). As a result, Peruvians are withdrawing the
Dollar savings they were accruing toward their retirement and spending them, affecting
banking liquidity and International Reserves at the same time that export Dollars have
22

been crimped. The result is seen above and PEN has slid even as the USD has
weakened against the major world currencies.
What’s even worse, instead of trying to work together this self-interested Congress is trying to
close down the executive branch and stop it from doing any work. Tomorrow Monday, President
Martín Vizcarra will again appear before Peru’s Congress to explain his side of the story
regarding ongoing and expanding corruption accusations being leveled against him. Last week,
Peru’s Congress voted to admit the resolution the “vacate” the Presidency and after Vizcarra
gives evidence there will be a vote. Local commentators consider its objective, aside from
throwing out the President, is to delay the April 2021 Presidential and Congressional elections
for its own ends and legislate without a Head of State (as would be its constitutional right at
that point, I am led to believe by the experts). There are certainly a large enough collection of
radicals holding seats to at least mount a challenge to the current democratic order, but reality
of Peru’s Congress also includes its extreme corruption, something Vizcarra has made great
progress against during his inherited mandate. Therefore, their reply has been to dig up dirt on
the President and present them as open-and-shut case of corruption (which isn’t so difficult
after all, Vizcarra was a Peruvian politico for decades, they all have at least a couple of small
skeletons in their cupboards).
What we are left with is some sort of limbo, which suits the most corrupt members of Congress
now under active investigation, as nothing moves forward. Vizcarra is required to defend
himself and, tomorrow, I expect he will be able to show enough to at least sow doubt and stop
enough members of congress from voting against him. But the corruption accusation, be they
true or false, are now likely to dog him through to the end of his mandate. Where the North
might have a Dead Duck, Peru now has its own Pato Muerto and any real legislation or
definition on a the ongoing corruption investigations (plural) is unlikely before the campaign
cycle begins and we end with a new President in July 2021. At least Peru has brought its Covid-
19 numbers down to an average of 2,500 per day (10k at peak), we wait to see if a vaccine
arrives before any second wave arrives (winter’s timing may favour the Southern hemisphere).
Hurricane Eta: Extensive damage in Central America
For want of another word, it’s good IKN mentioned the potential for inclement weather
affecting the region last week in “2020/2021 is now officially a La Niña weather season”. We
saw a big hit taken by the Eastern seaboard of Central America last week, with damage from
the Cat4 Hurricane Eta reported from Mexico to Colombia. However worst hit was Nicaragua
and Guatemala, specifically their East coastal zones that include one area known to this author
and these pages, the Triangulo Minero in Nicaragua. This report from one of Nicaragua’s State
news media (16) includes the photo seen above (foreign visitors are sometimes blocked from
this website, a cookie cleanse sorts the problem if you want to read more). This (17) from
foreign correspondents lists the early death tolls in several countries, with a total of 60 which
will unfortunately rise.
As for anecdotals, your author contacted the CSR team at Royal Road (RYR.v) this weekend, as
that company works the zone at some of its projects (e.g. Luna Roja). There’s widespread
damage, many places are worthy of the word “devastation”. The top priority will be food and
shelter, as no end of houses have been badly damaged and much of the current harvest is
totally lost, either destroyed or still underwater. The RYR team has transformed into aid
workers and are covering the needs of around 200 families (approx 1,000 mouths) who have
lost their livelihoods. On checking in with CEO Coughlin this weekend, he says that between
RYR, its partner Mineros S.A. (the big employer in the town of Bonanza) and other mining
companies (eg CDB.v), they have their immediate rural communities covered.
Bolivia: Luis Arce dodges the dynamite and is sworn in
Today Sunday South American leaders gathered in La Paz Bolivia for the transfer of the
Presidency from Interim Jeanine Añez (under investigation, not present) to new President Luis
Arce. Among those present were King Felipe VI of Spain (it may be a throwback, but it’s a
strong positive in S.Am diplomacy circles and adds real gravitas to the investiture), Alberto
23

Fernández of Argentina (left wing) and Iván Duque of Colombia (right wing) to give an idea of
the socially acceptable level of the occasion.
Bottom line: Bolivia had a good day and President Arce pushed hard on the “difficult period
resolved peacefully” line he has used since winning the vote. However, like other countries in
The Americas he has plenty of work to do to heal the country and its divisions, an example
happening on Friday when somebody, presumably opposition, threw and exploded a stick of
dynamite in the door of the party offices where President-Elect Luis Arce was staying overnight,
before travelling to La Paz (18). Meanwhile, 3rd placed contender in the election and leader of
the right wing political groups of Santa Cruz East lowland Bolivia, Luis Camacho, said yesterday
Saturday that his people will continue will civil disturbance tactics and that (translated (19))
“what we did last year, we’re going to do again”, an allusion to the movement that brought
down Evo Morales after the 2019 round one election and its statistically dubious result. Bolivia
lives in Interesting Times, however for the mining investor or speculator its problems make our
job easier as we simply avoid all exposure. As good at mining as Bolivians are, there’s no
reason to assume there’s a undiluted capitalist opportunity under President Arce of the hard
Left wing MAS party in the next five years.
Market Watching
Episode fifty-eight of “What I’d Buy Now”
Another four weeks, another edition of this bookstop. First, the standard intro copy-pasted from
the previous incarnation and adjusted to bring it up to date, regulars just skip this bit. We first
dial in on the results of our picks and weightings in IKN594 and then we move to the new
choices for the next four weeks. For those just joining us here come the rules:
The feature conveys “what I like now” in my own portfolio considering the state of the market, the company particulars
and their shares prices right here and now. It has been, is and forever will be more of a thought experiment than a
map of how I’m trading the market (because I tend not to day-trade very much). The rules are these:
1) You give me $50,000. We assume flat forex during the time period.
2) You tell me I have to invest every dollar in currently open IKN Weekly stock picks.
3) I’m allowed to allot different dollar amounts to different stocks, from zero on up.
4) I base my decisions, choices and dollar amounts on what I think today about the company, the stock price
and the current underlying micro and macro fundamentals.
5) You know that I like all the stocks because you know I already own them, we both understand these answers
are about how I feel today about the open stock positions for the next four weeks, no more and no less.
We’ve had fifty-seven periods so far, with the segment starting as an experiment back in
IKN369 and becoming a regular habit in four week segments. The latest was between IKN594
and IKN598, here’s what happened:
Mark spends $50,000 in IKN594 Mark's $50k in IKN598
company ticker current PPS amount I'd invest today PPS today position value
Norsemont Min NOM.cse $1.65 8000 $1.46 7079
Minera IRL MIRL.cse $0.18 8000 $0.18 8000
Cartier Resources ECR.v $0.24 5000 $0.275 5729
Aurelius AUL.v $0.085 4000 $0.08 3765
Orezone ORE.v $0.96 4000 $0.93 3875
Great Bear Res GBR.v $16.00 4000 $16.56 4140
Trilogy Metals TMQ $1.80 3000 $1.72 2867
Fiore Gold F.v $1.58 3000 $1.62 3076
Excelsior Mining MIN.to $0.67 3000 $0.63 2821
Rio2 Ltd RIO.v $0.85 3000 $0.93 3282
Minera Alamos MAI.v $0.70 2000 $0.78 2229
Royal Road Min RYR.v $0.365 1000 $0.405 1110
New Gold NGD $2.09 1000 $1.97 943
Pucara Gold TORO.v $0.79 1000 $0.81 1025
Total $50,000 NEW TOTAL--> $49,940
With just a day to go the list was in bad shape, then the Friday rally came and he basket came
24

agonizingly close to breaking even, just $60 short on four weeks. So be it, we move to the next
period and here are the picks, with notes below:
Mark spends $50,000 in IKN598
company ticker current PPS amount I'd invest today
Norsemont Min NOM.cse $1.46 8000
Minera IRL MIRL.cse $0.18 6000
Excelsior Mining MIN.to $0.63 6000
New Gold NGD $1.97 6000
Rio2 Ltd RIO.v $0.93 4000
Aurelius AUL.v $0.08 4000
Fiore Gold F.v $1.62 3000
Orezone ORE.v $0.93 3000
Trilogy Metals TMQ $1.72 3000
Great Bear Res GBR.v $16.56 3000
Minera Alamos MAI.v $0.78 2000
Royal Road Min RYR.v $0.405 1000
Pucara Gold TORO.v $0.81 1000
Total 50000
The Top Two stay in place, but MIRL gets a couple of thousand shaved off in order that
Excelsior benefit. New Gold under $200 is cheap at lower gold prices, apart from that I’ve
spread the love. Cartier and Tinka are not on the list as they may not be here for the next
edition.
That’s it for this WIBN, we return to this regular feature in IKN602. As always, the message at
the end on how you shouldn’t take this section too seriously, it’s not a “Top Pick series”, all it
does is map personal near-term feel on trades that nearly always have a 12 month minimum
timeline. It’s a thought exercise more than anything else, a personal gauge of sentiment among
stocks I hold.
Conclusion
IKN598 is done, we end with bullet points:
 Time to be bullish. Others may choose steadier picks such as last week’s Sandstorm
(SAND), today the plan is to add risk and enjoy a gold pop with plenty of leverage on
board.
 New Gold (NGD) is no longer the out-performer. It is a clear hold, however.
 Next week should bring definition on Minera IRL and that should feature next weekend,
unless a more urgent Flash update is required as well.
 Go silver!
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good hand-washing fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Mark
25

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://buildbackbetter.com/priorities/
(2) https://www.orezone.com/en/news/press-releases/orezone-files-final-base-shelf-prospectus/
(3) https://www.newgold.com/investors/news-releases/news-details/2020/New-Gold-Reports-Third-Quarter-
Operational-Results/default.aspx
(4) https://s2.q4cdn.com/351510513/files/doc_presentations/2020/11/11-05-2020-Q3-2020-Earnings-Webcast.pdf
(5) https://newgold.com/investors/events-and-presentations/presentations-events-and-webcasts/corporate-
presentations/default.aspx
(6) https://www.miningweekly.com/article/gold-gains-copper-slips-with-biden-expected-to-clinch-victory-2020-11-05
(7) https://www.reuters.com/article/china-economy-trade-copper/update-1-china-copper-imports-rise-43-4-y-y-in-oct-set-
annual-peak-in-just-10-months-idUSL1N2HT080
(8) https://www.manitougold.com/news/news-releases/manitou-gold-commences-drilling-at-its-100-owned-goudreau-
project
(9) https://econojournal.com.ar/2020/11/arcioni-hablo-de-la-oportunidad-historica-que-tiene-chubut-de-avanzar-con-el-
desarrollo-minero-en-la-meseta/
(10) https://diariojornada.com.ar/287243/provincia/una_marcha_en_contra_de_la_mineria_en_el_centro_de_trelew/
(11)
https://www.diariojornada.com.ar/287308/provincia/telsen_bowman_expectante_de_que_el_poder_ejecutivo_tome_una
_decision_sobre_la_mineria_en_la_meseta/
(12) https://www.elchubut.com.ar/nota/2020-11-6-11-28-0-bowman-expreso-la-expectativa-de-que-el-poder-ejecutivo-
tome-una-decision-sobre-la-mineria-en-la-meseta
(13) https://www.lateclapatagonia.com.ar/55210-diputados-de-todos-marcan-distancia-con-nacin-y-con-arc
(14) https://www.efe.com/efe/america/economia/provincia-argentina-deroga-ley-de-reforma-minera-tras-las-protestas-
populares/20000011-4140517
(15) https://mineriaenlinea.com/2020/11/costos-de-produccion-de-cobre-en-chile-se-desplomaron-en-el-primer-
semestre/
(16) https://www.el19digital.com/articulos/ver/titulo:109328-nicaragua-envia-abrazo-solidario-a-pueblos-y-gobiernos-
centroamericanos-
(17) https://www.dw.com/es/eta-sigue-causando-estragos-en-centroam%C3%A9rica-y-ya-deja-18-muertos/a-55514223
(18) https://www.nodal.am/2020/11/bolivia-atentado-contra-luis-arce-a-tres-dias-de-asumir-la-presidencia/
(19) https://www.nodal.am/2020/11/bolivia-luis-fernando-camacho-promotor-del-golpe-de-estado-lo-que-hicimos-el-ano-
pasado-lo-vamos-a-volver-a-hacer-ahora/
26

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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