IKN #597Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 597, November 1st 2020
Contents
This Week: In today’s edition, Gold will see us through November.
Fundamental Analysis: Sandstorm Gold Royalties (SAND) (SSL.to) 3q20.
Stocks to Follow: Norsemont Mining (NOM.cse), Pucara Gold (TORO.v), Royal Road Minerals
(RYR.v), Cartier Resources (ECR.v), Tinka Resources (TK.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Copper Mountain (CMMC.to), Capstone Mining (CS.to), Doré
Copper (DCMC.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Newmont (NEM), Alamos Gold (AGI).
Tiny Dogs: Overview, Contact Gold (C.v).
Regional Politics: Ecuador: Lundin Gold (LUG.to) CSR fail, Ecuador: Voter intention for a
three horse race, Colombia: President Duque is surviving the pandemic, Bolivia: History is
written by the victors, Peru promotes its Prior Consultancy of communities, 2020/2021 is now
officially a La Niña weather season, South American drilling companies forecast a strong 2021.
Market Watching: Kuya Silver (KUYA.cse) redux.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
“
In today’s edition
 Though it will come as no surprise to longer-term readers, this bullet point at the top of
today’s edition states I am not a buyer or seller of anything next week. As usual its
“Watch Only” mode during key elections and this one is no exception, but as today’s
intro tries to point out that’s not out of fear or trepidation. When gold is your financial
cornerstone it’s hard to worry too much.
 I did not expect Sandstorm Gold (SAND) (SSL.to) to become interesting this quickly.
Still not a buyer today, but today’s main Fundies section sets out the bull case at this
price deck.
 Norsemont Mining (NOM.cse) continued to drop in price last week, which caused a
flurry of mails. Please see the notes section of ‘Stocks to Follow’ for your pep talk
 Regional Politics tends to be bad news for mining, Ecuador tends to be particularly bad,
and even previous model CSR company Lundin Gold (LUG.to) has screwed up this time.
Add in the government’s heavy-handed response and the upcoming election, the result
is a mining sector that seems intent on throwing gasoline onto fires.
Gold will see us through November
The Witching Hour is behind us, greetings from an All Saints Sunday and the first day of
November, 2020. We’ve already seen a lot in 2020 and as this desk brilliantly managed to
predict a few of the events, we begin with a quick recap of times past. Not everything was
successfully predicted of course, your author missed the arrival of Covid-19 and its market
crash like most others, then came a rebound and recovery that morphed into a broad market
1

rally that smashed no end of records; so yes, I got that wrong too. I then proceeded to get
industrial metals and copper totally wrong, missing that rally when I should have rotated at
least some cash out of PMs and into BMs.
In other words, three of the three main events and trends of 2020 were totally missed by this
desk. What’s more, in the case of copper that mistake continues to this day, so much for the
brilliant guru stock genius. Admittedly I did buy PM stocks at a good time in May, sold a few of
them well in August then waited until October before deploying most the cash. Even that chain
of events was by no means perfect, as I sold at the start of August and missed most of the best
prices a couple of weeks later. Recent purchases would also have been better at the end of
October instead of the start, but I’m not going to beat myself up too much and know for a plain
fact that the first ten months of 2020 have been good for the portfolio, because even somebody
as determined to snatch defeat from the jaw of victory as I couldn’t mess up 2020 too much
and that’s all thanks to gold. In the end I only needed to get one big question right, own gold,
and all errors are forgiven.
Which brings us to what we might expect for the last two months, as this strange year draws to
a close. We keep the narrative as non-political as possible, but with just days to go before the
U.S. Presidential election we must consider the major influence on all things priced everywhere
in US Dollars. To begin, the S&P500 does not drop 5.6% the week before a U.S. Presidential
election “on virus concerns” alone, what we also saw was a market adjusting to a likely Biden
win but with plenty of uncertainty still in the
air. This ten day chart of gold (GLD proxy)
versus the S&P500 shows both lower; equities
through nerves and bullion due to the recent
buying of The US Dollar (USD index up from
93 to 94 last week). All these moves are
indicative of a market drawing its breath and
waiting for news.
A lot is being made of the “Silent Trump Vote”
this weekend and as it’s the potential joker in
the pack, let’s consider its potential to spring
the surprise. For what it’s worth, after totally
misunderstanding 2016 I made a point of
finding out more about why the pollsters got it so wrong and the Silent Trump Vote makes a lot
of sense. We know that the political right wing attracts some nasty ideologies that sit further
right but, and to a person, Trump supporters I’ve talked to are normal, decent and law-abiding
humans. If there is a common thread it’s a desire for the status quo and a disdain for a more
permissive society, which may or may not be your life choices but are perfectly valid
preferences. That both parties play on their fears and desires is quite another story (check out
recent history, democratic governments do not halt permissiveness/progress), but there’s rarely
anything nefarious about the citizen who votes to keep things the way they are. They will reject
out of hand the so-called patriotism of “Proud Boys”, so as it’s natural not to want to be
counted in with extremists the Silent Trump Vote grows. We combine the pollster misses in
2016, the Silent Trump Vote and the way that, when push comes to shove, most people vote
their party line and conclude that next week is going to be very noisy, but we can apply a
general framework and tentatively handicap the week in US politics as it may affect our sector
of focus:
 A Trump win (accepted by all sides): Good for broad markets, bad for gold. This is now
the surprise result, so if Trump pulls off the re-election the rally will be a neck-breaker.
The playbook is November 2016, the market reaction will be to liquidate any risk-off
position and buy equities.
 A Biden win (accepted by all sides): Somewhat negative for broad markets, not
necessarily good for gold. The move started in earnest last week and US equities will
2

drop further if the assumption is confirmed, but it won’t be one for the record books
and next to what we’ve seen in 2020, a footnote. I am pencilling in Dow 25,000 /
S&P500 3,000, levels last seen in June while the recovery was still in two-steps-
forward-one-step-back mode. As for gold, we may see some price appreciation if the
dollar takes a hit, but I’m not expecting much. Gold will eventually react to a Democrat
administration and I expect it higher on loose monetary policy, but at this point there’s
too much uncertainty on how Deep/Keynesian/Lefty (choose your preferred title) the
change of course will be.
The bottom line: I’m not expecting a great week for mining stocks, at best the election is a
neutral for our sector. In the case of a Biden victory, gold may do its Safe Haven routine, but
there would be no shock in that result and the action will be elsewhere. If broad market
equities complete their adjustment to the downside, miners won’t escape and I’d expect the
near-term effects to be a wash. In the possible event of a Trump win, the near-term scenario
sees gold sold off and spiking down temporarily, perhaps until early 2021. As for the rest of the
year, I’d tentatively suggest that mining companies will have stronger influences on their stock
prices than the outcome, the 21st century has shown time and again that geopoliticals have a
limited effect on the price of gold, what matters is the money. Other alternatives that do not
include a clean Biden or Trump victory don’t get mention on these pages, but whoever gets to
be President next term The USA and therefore the world still has to get through the recession
caused by Covid-19. Stimulus packages are now running out and the accelerating spread in the
Northern Hemisphere (no matter whether your country locks down or not) has made that
certainty even worse. Finally, it is sad to
have to put “accepted by all sides” in
parenthesis while talking about a US
Presidential election, as The USA now seems
to think itself the only nation in the world to
suffer the “Least Worst” election choice at
the ballot box. The most this desk can hope
from The USA for the rest of 2020 for is a
smooth continuation (of the current admin)
or transition (to a new one), that may be a
lot to ask.
But hey, let’s forget all the above because
this is what really matters, right:
There is still no sign of instos giving up on
gold and though I tried hard to worry about
the U$20/oz price drop of last week I cannot
help but feel relaxed about financials
prospects for 2021 when gold continues to
trade this constructively. As our GLD
inventory tracker charts indicate, large instos
agree with this desk on gold:
GLD gold holdings, 2020 to date (metric tonnes)
1400
1350
1300
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
3
02/1/2 02/1/21 02/1/22 02/2/1 02/2/11 02/2/12 02/3/2 02/3/21 02/3/22 02/4/1 02/4/11 02/4/12 02/5/1 02/5/11 02/5/12 02/5/13 02/6/01 02/6/02 02/6/03 02/7/01 02/7/02 02/7/03 02/8/9 02/8/91 02/8/92 02/9/8 02/9/81 02/9/82 02/01/8 02/01/81 02/01/82
7.60 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2020 to date
mt
7.40
7.20
7.00
6.80
6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
source: SPDR GLD data 5.80
5.60
2/1 21/1 22/1 1/2 11/2 12/2 2/3 21/3 22/3 1/4 11/4 12/4 1/5 11/5 12/5 13/5 01/6 02/6 03/6 01/7 02/7 03/7 9/8 91/8 92/8 8/9 81/9 82/9 8/01 81/01 82/01
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs

Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Sandstorm Gold (SAND) (SSL.to) 3q20 financials
'C'est la vie,' say the old folks
You never can tell, Chuck Berry, 1964
This desk opened and downloaded the contents of the 3q20 financials out of Sandstorm Gold
Royalties (SAND) (SSL.to), post-close on Thursday 29th October (1), without expecting to be
particularly interested in the numbers. Not only is SAND not a current open position, but it’s
also one of the more defensive ways of playing the precious metals market and to date, 2020
fortunes have favoured the brave. However, my interest perked up with the numbers crunched,
then on hearing the ConfCall Friday morning (transcript here (2)), there was plenty of confirm
this desk’s reconsidered opinion that SAND is a viable trade again. By way of background (for
those new here or otherwise), SAND is a known entity to The IKN Weekly and was a “slow but
steady” performer for The IKN Weekly over the years. The large SAND position bought in
stages during 2016 at U$3.73 average got
cut in half in 2018, when selling half for a
modest profit during a portfolio rebalance.
The other half rode to February 2020 and a
pleasant U$7.20 exit, just before Covid-19
hit the world (I did a portfolio re-balance, it
didn’t turn out well). Most recently SAND
was one of the stocks I reached for post-
crash, as we went long precious metals and
rode the gold price run, buying back in May
this year for $7.76 and selling in the August
profit-taking for a handy 20% in three
months. However, even though it’s done
this since then (price chart right)there was
no house plan on returning to the stock
before the company’s Q3 came out. That has changed and SAND looks interesting again for
four main reasons:
 Known Covid-19 effects are now behind SAND, sales should improve going forward
 Today’s SAND is rock-solid financially
 A reported lack of opportunity for meaningful growth opportunities
 A price window offering a fundamentally cheap entry point
First we bring company financials up to date to
shows why 3q20 was a better quarter than the SAND: AuEq sales per qtr
market thought (SAND lost around 3% against
GDX/J on Friday). We begin with three
straightforward charts that demonstrate the
effect of Covid-19 on SAND. This overall sales
chart (right) shows the 12,068 oz AuEq sold by
SAND in 3q20 was some improvement on Q2,
but not much and the company suffered from
knock-on effects on production lags at several
assets. However, they expect them to unwind
as from this quarter and, on consideration of
Conference Call comments from David Awram,
the chart also guides on a track back to the previous 16k/qtr levels (Awram was also clear they
didn’t expect to approach 20k/qtr rates before any new transaction). What saved the quarter
for SAND was the gold price (below) they managed an AuEq avg received price of U$1,928/oz.
As you can see from the estimates for the next three quarters, we’re not supposing much more
than that for the time being and our estimates put gold on U$2,000/oz by 2q21.
4
58641 56441 41341 05141 17041 00461 98271 00161 39331
02901 86021
00041 00051 00061
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000 8000
6000
4000
2000
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 tse02q4 tse12q1 tse12q2
AuEq Oz
source: company filings

SAND: Realized average Gold Eq sales price/oz
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
5
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 tse02q4 tse12q1 tse12q2
U$/oz AuEq
source: SAND filings
Putting those together gives us a top line revenue of U$23,267m, comprised of U$14.187m of
Au(Eq) sales and U$9.008m of royalty revenues. That corner of SAND has been boosted by the
start of NSR cheques from the Lundin Gold (LUG.to) Fruta de Norte mine.
Sandstorm (SAND) (SSL.to): Revenues per quarter
8985
27531
2615
17731
3256
66701 32521
1455
72621
0505
34461
0628
81571
1896
41071
9996
33341
0516
08521
0809
78141
30000
27500
25000
22500
20000
17500
15000
12500
10000
7500
5000
2500
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3
U$k
Royalty revs
Au Sales
source: SSL filings
By breaking down revenues by asset, we get a better picture of SAND’s main income streams:
U$m SAND: Breakdown of sales and royalty revenues (U$m)
30
27.5 Relief Canyon
25 FDN
22.5 Other
Yamana Ag
20
Santa Elena
17.5
Ming
15 Karma
12.5 Houndé
10 Diavik
7.5 Chapada
5 BracemacMcLeod
Black Fox
2.5
Bach. Lake
0
Aurizona
1q18 2q18 3q18 4q18 1q19 2q19 3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20
source: company filings
In fact, this next chart focuses on the last few quarters and shows how SAND has become more
dependent on fewer producing assets:
U$m SAND: Revenues from The Big 7 streams
20
18
16 Relief Canyon
14 Yamana Ag
12
Santa Elena
10
Karma
8
Houndé
6
Chapada
4
Aurizona
2
0
1q18 2q18 3q18 4q18 1q19 2q19 3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20
source: SAND filings

These are “The Big Seven” at SAND, with
Relief Canyon now coming on line and
Aurizona moving into full scale
production. The Yamana stream from
Cerro Moro was a big miss in Q3 but that
was expected, the company had flagged
it was getting Q2’s limited production as
Q3 revenue on several occasions and
nobody was surprised. If we consider the
percentage make-up of the Big Seven to
total revenues at SAND, I am cheating a
bit by including 2019 quarters when a
couple weren’t already on line, but the
point is at the right hand side of the
chart; When the Yamana silver stream is back at full tilt, SAND will again see over 80% of its
revenues from just seven assets.
We move to the financials, with the overview chart up first.
SAND: Operations overview
32.0
28.5
25.8 26.6
24.0 23.3
21.3
18.7
10.0 9.1 8.6 8.3 7.7 9.0 9.0
5.0 5.0 4.2 2.8 3.1 3.5 4.0 4.0
6
8.01
9.9 6.8
5.21
5.51
0.91
8.0 6.7
1.51
SAND: Percentage of total revenue from Top 7 assets
U$m
35 total revenues prod costs depletion gross profit
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20est 1q21est 2q21est
Source: SAND filings
Thanks to the high gold price all was not lost at SAND. Total revenues of U$23.267m saw
production costs of U$3.108m, then depletion at a reduced U$7.707m for gross profit of
U$12.452. However, what catches the eye is to the right because, by nothing more than
assuming SAND moves back to its previous 16k oz AuEq sales levels and factoring in gold at
U$1,900/oz and then U$2,000/oz in 2q21,
we get significant improvements in
revenues and gross margins.
What matters more than its GAAP
numbers and their need to DD&A the
assets of third parties is this chart, its cash
generation capacity. Even with its reduces
sales ounces SAND almost returned a
record amount of cash to treasury last
quarter, we expect that to go higher still.
This chart jives with CEO Nolan Watson’s
comments during the conference call that
by early 2021, they would have over half
a billion dollars worth of war chest in order to do business. Between end 3q20 cash ($75m),
assets available for sale ($70m) and its credit facilities (mainly the revolver, total U$300m) they
only need another $55m to get there, that should happen during 2q21. Which brings us to
another point made by CEO Watson during the ConfCall, one is important for the context to
come. In previous quarterly ConfCalls he had been bullish about potential dealflow, but this
quarter things have obviously cooled. Here’s the main comment:
“Although we are still working on a number of transactions, it’s is clear that for
%4.65
%9.26
%9.35
%5.36
%2.55
%0.46 %7.36 %9.07
%6.67
%4.38
%4.77
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1q18 2q18 3q18 4q18 1q19 2q19 3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20
source: SAND filings
SAND: Cash generation capacity
867.31 600.31 731.21 933.11 79.21 386.41
878.81
343.61 160.51 759.31
403.81
1.32 5.42 82
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 tse02q4 tse12q1 tse12q2
$m
source: company data, IKN calcs

larger deals, the motivation to complete stream deals buyer counterparties
has decreased on average. As always, our team is working hard behind the
scenes to find intelligent and attractive acquisitions and we will continue to
endeavour to do so, however we will not rush ourselves into acquisitions to
grow for the sake of growing.”
In other words, miners don’t need to cap their blue sky when gold is at $2,000/oz. SAND and
other streamers have seen appetite for deals with them decrease, because the size of company
that moves their dial doesn’t need their upfront capital at the moment. What that has done is
change the balance sheet complexion significantly at SAND. You don’t see that too easily with
the main assets and liabilities charts, due to the overall size of the fixed asset pile and the fact
that SAND has got its debt position back to zero once again:
Where you see it is in cash and equivalents at a new company record U$74.529m
SAND: Cash treasury per qtr
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
7
51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
Therefore, when we consider that SAND sales are recovering and the record gold prices mean
record profits are all-but guaranteed, but the company is also signaling a lack of deal flow and
cash collection, the result looks something like this on the working capital chart:
SAND: Working Capital per qtr
200
180
160
140.0
140
117.0
120
97.0
100
78.5
80
60 57.0 50.3
38.8
40 23.8 20.4 31.9 21.421.7 29.1 22.725.624.321.3
20
1.8 0.3 2.6
13.9 6.810.8
0
51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 tse02q4 tse12q1 tse12q2
source company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
800 SAND: Assets
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
I’ve gone long on the last two charts, back as far as 2105, to show just how different the
51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3
$m fixed SAND: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr other current
100
cash+ST 90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
source: SAND filings
51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT debt
current debt

upcoming phase of SAND’s corporate life is set to be. The indications from SAND were clear
enough, the lack of meaningful deals means they will be prudent, and prudent means collecting
cash. What this does, of course, is to make
SAND that much more attractive as an M&A
target. This chart shows SAND’s calculated
P/Sales for 3q20 at 17.3X, but the price drop
since September 30th means its implied
P/Sales today is 13.4X. And if, as we
suppose, sales and profits only increase at
SAND over the next three quarters, that ratio
drops to 11.2X as long as its share price
doesn’t move. This is why the company is
cheap right now, the price drop bears no
relation to the upcoming revenues
improvement.
Another small piece may also have fallen into place regarding the share count. We had the
recent warrant exercise in April 2020 (that brought in over $50m in gross proceeds) and since
then, options exercising has competed with the company’s share buyback policy. However, as
of this quarter, when 2m warrants priced at $4 will become whole (or disappear forever), CEO
Watson pointed out in the ConfCall that it will be the first time SAND has been warrant-free.
SAND: Shares Out
NB: please note cut-down Y-axis
8
182.69 184.06 184.45 183.75 180.88 178.89 177.64 175.32 177.23 174.21 190.80 191.07 193.20
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 tse02q4
source: company filings/IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim
26 SAND: Annualized price/sales ratio, per qtr
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
Meanwhile, the royalty/streamer sector has hardly covered itself with glory in 2020, as this
chart shows. True Wheaton Precious Metals
(WPM) has done better than the rest, the
different kicking in when silver starting moving
and complemented the WPM asset book.
Meanwhile Franco-Nevada (FNV) has been
“market perform” at best while the other two
on the chart, RGLD and SAND, are
underperformers. Those are the performance
figures of a sector that could do with
consolidation.
Discussion and conclusion
Sandstorm Gold Royalties (SAND) (SSL.to) faces a corporate problem; below it in market cap
size, new smaller royalty/streamer companies are doing deals that don’t interest SAND much,
as they don’t move its dial these days. Meanwhile and above it in the market cap table, the big
players are taking all the deals that are interesting due to their superior access to cheap capital.
SAND’s solution is to collect cash and build a war chest, but that also makes the company
vulnerable to predators who would see plenty of value in its stock today. Consider this chart of
41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 tse02q4 tse12q1 tse12q2
source: company filings, IKN data

relative Price Sales and how Franco-Nevada commands a multiple that’s always in the 20s. Also,
consider the table shows the SAND backward number, not today’s implicit 13.4X.
The M&A theory revolves around FNV, as it
P/Sales ratios for FNV, WPM, SAND
could pay almost literally double today’s share
price for SAND and it would still be accretive 30
to its balance sheet. As a target, SANd 28
26
becomes particularly attractive as it collects
24 FNV
cash and reduces its EV, plus it comes with no 22 WPM
debt and a $300m credit facility, untouched 20 SAND
18
and ready to use. What’s more, the current
16
revenues mix at SAND means an aggressive 14
company could keep the Big Seven producing 12
10
assets and start selling off the non-core
3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20
holdings, be they producing or not. Along with
“other”, SAND holds hundreds of earlier stage source: company financials
royalties that could be monetized by an
eventual buyer, the new crop of smaller royaltycos are hungry for such deals.
And all this without mentioning Hod Maden! Once again we leave word of SAND’s most exciting
asset of all to last, but this time it gets more than three lines. During the ConfCall, CEO Watson
confirmed that the production day one had been pushed out to 2023, mainly due to Covid-19
and long-lead time order fulfillment. However, the Feasibility Study for Hod Maden is still on
track for next year, guidance now “first quarter of 2021 or Q2 at the latest”. That will be a big
moment for the company and a de-risking moment that will surely add value to the company.
To date Hod Maden hasn’t pushed the share price much but it surely will, now three years from
doubling gold production organically. The FS should add some value and if we assume Hod
Maden doubles SAND’s overall production schedule, every 10% of its NAV added along the road
to production would add around should add U$125m, or U$0.65 per share. An incremental re-
rate is the most likely effect on Hod Maden over the next three years and that should start in
2021 …it’s certainly overdue.
The other chart that stands out in today’s review of SAND’s Q3 is Price/Sales, which has shown
several peaks along the way but is now in a trough. That’s the right time to buy, as without any
other influence aside the expected return to previous sales levels and a gold price only
modestly higher, SAND moves back to a 15X P/sales without breaking sweat. That would be a
U$10 price target and +35% from this weekend’s cheap looking entry point. As for the potential
of SAND becoming an M&A target, it is technically possible but for the time being, the thought
exercise that shows it to be at a deep discount to peers is more important. In theory, an
aggressive FNV could indeed pay up to own the company, then pick and choose from its best
performing assets while selling the rest. However, if SAND does rests on its laurels and does
little more than collect cash for the next year or so, it
will leave itself open to approaches from the likes of
FNV. After its recent price drop, SAND’s fundies
numbers tell you without much doubt that it’s
oversold. It is understandable that it would do so on a
weak-looking Q2, but those backward-looking
numbers bear little relation to the reality of a
company with improving revenues and plenty of
organic growth news flow coming up.
As for this desk’s trade plans for Sandstorm, those are
straightforward enough: I’m not a buyer of anything
this week, but once the election dust has settled
SAND is a possible buy for the backbone it brings to a precious metals portfolio. Last week’s
selling capped a weak period for the company and we now have it back at buyable levels.
Depending on what happens in the day ahead, I may act on that soon but for the moment, the
9

surprisingly interesting SAND back is on watching brief and the purchase radar.
Stocks to Follow
Just one of our 15 open positions returned a week-over-week gain (MIRL.cse) and two others
unchanged (ORE.v, TK.v), which means 12
losers. However, only one was a double
figure loss (ECR.v down 10.0%) and while
there were solid hits taken by Fiore (F.v
down 8.0%), Trilogy (TMQ down 7.7%) New
Gold (NGD down 7.7%), overall the portfolio
continues to show resilience against the
market median. This three month chart
(right) notes both GDX and GDXJ down
around 10% in the period, whereas the
worst of our four largest positions is UNCH,
then two others are up 10% and New Gold
(NGD) has out-performed in some style in
the last quarter.
Until Tinka Resources leaves as planned, we have 15 open positions which is our self-imposed
maximum for the portfolio. Eight are in the green since inception, two are unchanged since
inception, five are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.68 223.8% New $1.14 tgt Aug'20 #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.81 22-Apr-18 C$0.81 0.0% $1.58 tgt, accum now
Recommended stocks (In order of preference)
New Gold NGD STR BUY U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.03 167.1% re-upped tgt $2.80
Fiore Gold F.v STR BUY C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.50 53.1% $2.00 target, small growth PM
Great Bear Res GBR.v STR BUY C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$15.98 0.1% M&A major tgt, added IKN590
Norsemont Mining NOM.cse STR BUY C$1.61 6-Sep-20 C$1.18 -26.7% New large position, Q4 buy time
Trilogy Metals TMQ BUY U$1.78 15-Sep-19 U$1.56 -12.4% Permit received. Holding thru
Excelsior Mining MIN.to BUY C$0.95 10-Mar-19 C$0.63 -33.7% delayed re-rate, we hold thru
Royal Road Min. RYR.v spec buy C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.335 116.1% Good progress in Nica
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.195 0.0% 25c first tgt on Cofide deal
Cartier Resources ECR.v spec buy C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.225 45.2% Au spec, will sell Chimo
Pucara Gold TORO.v wait to buy C$0.80 4-Oct-20 C$0.72 -10.0% Will add at under 65c
Orezone ORE.v BUY C$0.77 21-Jun-20 C$0.87 13.0% Bot as China M&A tgt
Aurelius Res AUL.v spec buy C$0.075 28-Jun-20 C$0.08 6.7% small spec drillplay
Tinka Res TK.v SELLING C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.17 -12.8% SELL ON NOV'20 DRILL NR
Short positions
no current short positions
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
10

Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for some notes on our covered stocks:
Norsemont Mining (NOM.cse): The volatility continues in NOM, so therefore today we are
going to focus on the volatility in NOM. I have received and read your mails and I know it’s not
pleasant, but sometimes it’s part of the ride, ladies and gents. It’s time for a pep-talk, one that
applies to those new or new-ish to the sector, but also relevant to the old hands as we need a
reminder every so often. I’m going to pick on reader “W” unfairly, as he was one of the mails
that got a reply. He included this line:
"However, a drop of that magnitude in such a short period is highly unusual, and I
would appreciate your thoughts."
That is true for company stocks, true for indices, true for ETFs, but it’s not true for the junior
mining sector and never will be. It is part of life in this sector, its potential for out-sized gains
comes with a cost, there are a thousand ways of losing your money and half of those are out of
your control (aside the buy/sell button). I can’t remember his exact quote, but to paraphrase
Rick Rule if you haven’t had half of a new position handed back to you in a junior within a
month of buying it, you haven’t been in the mining sector very long. I am forced to correct
reader W, as a drop of this magnitude in such a short period of time is in fact highly usual. Not
pleasant and certainly not something we need to stomach, but I know it’s going to happen to
me again at some point in some other
company stock. Sorry in advance for that
pick, too.
To illustrate what can and cannot happen to
a junior trade, let’s do a little laundry list of
factors affecting NOM since I’ve been in the
stock and according to feedback received: I
was aware of the Chile referendum vote, but
as it has scant effect on its mining industry it
didn’t get mentioned as it has nothing at to
do with the NOM price action. However some
things do affect its price, e.g. I would not
presume to advise CEO Levy on his
marketing, but even though I don’t like that he used the Vancouver pay-to-play brigade I was
aware of it. I went in eyes-wide open, but I do not have control over the short strategy of a
European fund and, it turns out the risk of using pay-to-play was greater than imagined. Next, I
11

didn’t know gold would trade under U$1,900/oz this week, nor that the nervousness would
trigger cascade selling. However, the number of relative newcomers into this stock means it
was more likely, so again I was probably too hasty in pulling the trigger on my additions.
We could continue, blow-by-blow of errors and fortunate moments, but you’ve worked out the
main point already; I am relaxed about this poor start to my trade in NOM. Be it a company or
living person, nobody likes to take a hit on their NAV and 30% or 50% down in weeks is
tangible to any portfolio, but it is part of the territory and as I know the reasons for my
purchases are fundamentally sound (right people, right metal, right asset, right country), I will
take the rough passage. The last couple of days of trading in NOM were more constructive but
I’m not going to sugar-coat it for you either, the above chart could take another down leg
without upsetting a single technical analyst.
Pucara Gold (TORO.v): I didn’t make the mooted “sub 65c” addition, as last week was
watching mode and wary of falling knives, but the action in TORO on Wednesday morning,
during which it dropped to 61c on volume before rallying back to the 70c line, looks like the
moment when those running the stock price step in and say “Enough”. There’s still no reason to
pay up on this stock, even with the news Wednesday that it has a drill turning on Lourdes (3).
Calling out the shady way in which this stock began its trading career has been vindicated so
far. The way in which TORO.v collected its wholly owned assets isn’t going to go away and, in
order to make considered opinions, we investors need as much DD as possible. Next up, it’s
difficult to find a more obvious case of a company being hyped and pumped into its IPO, as
stated three weeks ago in IKN594: “…the way in which less sophisticated investors were
steered into this stock when others are immediately cashing out doesn’t merely state too much
risk, it screams it out loud from rooftops.” Ultimately, we buy junior mining explorecos because
of the potential for drill results that can add a zero to company market caps in an instant. We
also know that the sector has a reputation for attracting the morally challenged (let’s say). In
TORO.v, we have an acid test, so what do you want from a junior mining advisory service? A
person who tells you to buy a stock because it just cannot possibly lose, or a person who looks
into the background of the people involved, is unafraid to shine light on the less salubrious
parts of the company, but after the DD has finished is still willing to trade the company (and
gets you in at better prices)? You may prefer a third option, you may want a publisher that
automatically dismisses out of hand any mining company management team or board of
directors that shows signs of caring far more about their own financial well-being than that of
their shareholders. If that’s your preference, you shouldn’t even be looking at this sector.
Royal Road Minerals (RYR.v): I really like the way this company goes about its business. In
its monthly newsletter that hit my inbox today Sunday November 1st (4) RYR got us up to speed
on what it has achieved in Colombia, including photos of a fortuitous land slip caused by heavy
rains that has exposed more of the mineralization at its Guintar target. Here’s an extract from
the letter:
Here in Colombia we have spent a solid two weeks making detailed observations and
collecting new geological information from the Guintar-Niverengo-Margaritas (GNM)
12

gold project in Antioquia. The outcome of this work has been very positive, identifying
new and exciting drilling targets. Further drill holes will be located by the end of this
week with a view to commencing a follow up drill program as soon as possible.
By the end of this week three reconnaissance exploration teams will be deployed on
regional work aimed at prioritising and rationalising the extensive ground holdings we
have in Northern Colombia. Regional exploration work is also kicking off in Nicaraguas
Golden Triangle commencing with an auger soil sampling program at a new skarn gold
project located 50 km to the southwest of Luna Roja known as Yuoya.
The main attraction of owning RYR is its ability to go into zones that other, larger companies
consider too dangerous but find geologically attractive, such as the Golden Triangle areas of
Nicaragua where it works effectively with partner Mineros S.A. Mineros is also one of its
Colombia regional sponsors, but rest assured that all the majors are watching to see whether in
particular the border zone on the Colombia side of Ecuador can be made safe and unlocked, as
RYR has first call on some of the most prospective target on the continent there. RYR is a proxy
for large companies to go exploring in tough zones, which means it will continue to enjoy
strong backing. With 260m shares out and a market cap of C$87.1m, you get a lot of company
for a small price at RYR.
Cartier Resources (ECR.v): The personal impression of ECR stock is a price under pressure
for three reasons: Firstly the current market negativity/nerves, second that it’s now clear to one
and all there’s not buyer for Chimu this year. Last but not least, we still have the impression
that even after the uptick in sector interest and activity ECR is “Agnico’s B_tch”, there’s not
enough competitive tension. This scenario leaves the investor holding as the speculator leaves
the room, which is okay by me (I suppose). ECR still has a strong catalyst to offer the market
this year, we expect a resource update that should get Chimu to around 1.8m oz gold and
moves it further toward its goal of a 2m oz resource size. With economic studies and more
drilling, 2021 will be the year to sell.
Tinka Resources (TK.v): TK has been trading softly into its expected news window, one that
should start this month of November with drill results. We await to see what the assays give us
and, perhaps more pertinently, how TK decides to present itself. If it tries to pump the silver
angle and gets momentum, there may be a reasonable out in this stock after all.
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): So much for the big drum roll last week, the NR from MIRL on
Thursday October 29th was a damp squib (5):
LIMA, Peru, Oct. 29, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Minera IRL Limited ("Minera IRL"
or the "Company") (BVL: MIRL) (CSE: MIRL) announces that the Board of Directors of
Corporación Financiera de Desarrollo (“COFIDE”) has today deferred approval of the
proposed settlement agreement with the Company. At COFIDE’s request, the parties
have agreed to extend the MOU until November 7, 2020. The Company expects that
the COFIDE Board will revisit approval of the settlement agreement within that period.
The basic terms of the proposed agreement with COFIDE provide for three years to
repay the Bridge Loan and the future accrued interest, the amount of principal to be
repaid after crediting the amounts due to the Company pursuant to the Arbitration
Award, an agreement on the amount of past interest due and, finally, the voluntary
dismissal of COFIDE’s application for annulment of the Arbitration Award.
In so many words, come back in ten days’ time. This is of course annoying and I said as much
on the blog that day (6) but it’s also noteworthy how many of you are willing to cut MIRL some
slack. You do have a point and if it really only needs ten days, then fine. In the end we even
had a winning week from the stock, not many juniors can say that. Therefore I too will cut
MIRL some slack and give them the time to November 7th…it’s not as if there’s much choice for
a man who wants to hold his shares and vote them in December, anyway.
13

The Copper Basket
After 44 weeks of 2020, The Copper Basket shows a 30.24% gain to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Capstone Min CS.to 0.76 399.598 667.33 1.67 119.7%
2 Imperial Metals III.to 2.06 128.49 389.32 3.03 47.1%
3 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 3.38 138.905 291.70 2.10 -37.9%
4 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 0.71 191.3 216.17 1.13 59.2%
8 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 1.625 64.358 212.38 3.30 103.1%
5 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.45 181.52 210.56 1.16 157.8%
6 Western Copper WRN.to 1.07 107.586 160.30 1.49 39.3%
7 Excelsior Min. MIN.to 1.00 238.658 150.35 0.63 -37.0%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.28 101.85 121.20 1.19 -7.0%
10 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.59 180.169 93.69 0.52 -11.9%
11 Atico Mining ATY.v 0.31 119.023 47.61 0.40 29.0%
12 Chakana Cop PERU.v 0.245 93.2 43.34 0.465 89.8%
13 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.47 77.636 26.40 0.34 -27.7%
14 Doré Copper DCMC.v 1.25 31.798 21.30 0.67 -46.4%
15 Chibougamau CBG.v 0.17 46.695 6.07 0.13 -23.5%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 30.24%
A big down week for The 60% The Copper Basket 2020, weekly evolution
50%
Copper Basket, with nearly 40%
10% shaved from the overall 30%
20%
basket average and, unusually, 10%
all 15 stocks down on the 0%
-10%
week. No mercy was shown by
-20%
Mr. Market, with the biggest -30%
-40%
losers of the 15 coming from
-50%
Chakana Copper (PERU.v down -60%
17.0%), Regulus Resources
(REG.v down 16.2%), Doré
Copper (DCMC.v down 10.7%)
and Chibougamau (CBG.v down 10.3%). Plenty of other drops between 5% and 10%.
A look at the hourlies chart for copper-the-metal (below left) shows bearish trading action all
week, with every attempted rally met with selling. However, the dailies chart (below right) has
a healthier message, with a wider message that copper’s pricing got ahead of itself in the near-
term. This fits with talk of a temporary, near-term supply bottleneck reported in China due to
14
ts13ceD ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 ts1ram ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5rpa ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yam ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7nuj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5luj ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2gua ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6pes ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4tco ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1von
source: IKN calcs

smelters bringing forward their maintenance downtime. Demand continues to be good in Asia-
Pacific, supply isn’t as glitchy as people make it out to be, we’ve seen a near-term top.
It’s the end of another month and the long-term copper inventory tracking charts show the
long-term scenario of copper demand:
Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
15
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes
LME Shanghai Comex source: Cochilco
LME is back as the Daddy and the price discovery mechanism, while SHFE stocks have dwindled
slightly over the month but are still largely in line with a normal year.
Copper inventories, per month, 2012 to date
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes
Mt Cu source: Cochilco
Comex
Shanghai
LME
If we isolate the LME data since 2015 and present it separately (below), the trend toward
holding lower stocks is clear. The trough in inventories we saw over the summer as supply was
interrupted was deep, but since then the recovery has been in-line with previous seasons and if
trends continue, we should see LME back up at 250,000mt. It’s around then we’ll have our next
inflexion point, lower-lows and lower-highs now five years and counting.
LME copper stocks, 2015 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes
source: LME data
reppoc
sennot
cirtem
That’s the long-term trends covered, now our regular weekly look at copper inventory data:
 The world aggregate copper stocks number dropped sharply last week, down 23,415
metric tonnes (mt) (-5.8%) to drag the total under the 400k line, we stand at

383,314mt this weekend.
 The main move was at the SHFE, where 15,869mt (-10.2%) of metal came off stock to
reduce the total to 139,657mt. Though potentially bullish, the drawdown is likely
connected to a temporary lull in copper supply as Chinese smelters went offline for
maintenance.
 At the LME, we also saw a drop of 9.000mt of copper from stocks which come in at
171,300,t this weekend.
 Comex stocks added 1,434mt and stand at 72,357mt this weekend. Nothing much
doing here.
Here’s the Shanghai-only inventories chart, where the 150k line was broken to the dowonside
but that’s what happens in November and then December.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, Dec'16 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
16
6102
dr3naj
ts13 ht82 ht72 ht42 dn22 ht91 ht71 ht41 ht11 ht9 ht6voN ht11 ht8 ht5beF 7102
ht5raM
dn2rpA ht03 ht82 ht52 dr32 ht02 ht71 ht51 ht21 ht01 8102
ht7naj
ht4bef 8102
ht4ram
8102
ts1rpa
ht92 dr3nuj 8102
ts1yluj
ht92 ht62 dr32 ts12tco ht81 ht61 ht31naj ht01 ht01 9102
ht7rpa
ht5yam 9102
dn2nuj
ht03 ht82 102ht52pes dn22 ht02 9102ht71von ht51 0202ht21naj ht9 ht8 ht5rpa 0202dr3yam ht13 ht82 0202ht62luj dr32 ht02 ht81
Mt Cu
source: Cochilco
Now for a couple of notes on basket component stocks:
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to): A heads-up ladies and gents, CMMC reports its quarter
tomorrow Monday November 2nd before the open, with its ConfCAll 7:30am PST (join the
webcast here (7). CMMC has traded like a champ through the copper rebound and last week
saw strong late Friday buyers move the stock up 9.7% on volume, which means somebody
somewhere wanted to be long going into this set of financials. I also like this part of the
biography of new board appointment Peter Sullivan, also announced last week (8):
Mr. Sullivan also has extensive work experience in corporate finance and investment
banking, particularly focused on debt and equity financings, project finance structuring
and mergers and acquisitions.
Not necessarily for the M&A mention, but for
the fact the main financial stumbling block at
CMMC has always been its USD debt, which has
caused forex problems for CMMC’s results over
the years, what with it being a Canadian
company domiciled in Canada and reporting in
Canadian Dollars. With operations now running
nicely and brownfields exploration showing
good resource upside, I will spend time on
CMMC and this set of financials this week.
Capstone Mining (CS.to): I’m also looking
for better from CMMC than Capstone (CS.to), a
company that had my eye in anticipation but eventually didn’t deliver much and was rightly
marked down on the day. Consider these three lines my “I pass” message on CS.

Doré Copper (DCMC.v) and Chibougamau (CBG.v): Both down over 10% last week, but
ironically both in a region that may have just benefited from new legislation, as the Quebec
government last week unveiled its new Quebec Inc mining initiative, this time its project
offering financial support for “battery metals” mining companies. The interesting thing with the
Quebec list is that, unlike just about every other government in the world, it includes copper on
its list of metals it will sponsor. How far this helps the near-term stock prices of Quebec juniors
is up for debate, but this is prima facie good news for DCMC, CBG and other companies
exploring for copper and base metals in Quebec.
The Producer Basket
After 44 weeks of 2020, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 34.27% to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out Mkt Cap (Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 43.45 819.84 51.52 62.84 44.6%
2 Barrick GOLD 18.59 1779.04 47.55 26.73 43.8%
3 Franco-Nevada FNV 103.30 188.6 25.75 136.55 32.2%
4 Agnico Eagle AEM 61.61 238.985 18.95 79.29 28.7%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.74 1253.5 9.99 7.97 68.1%
6 Royal Gold RGLD 122.25 65.375 7.77 118.81 -2.8%
7 Pan American PAAS 23.69 209.61 6.67 31.80 34.2%
8 B2Gold BTG 4.01 1025.75 6.61 6.44 60.6%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 6.02 391.19 3.58 9.15 52.0%
10 Buenaventura BVN 15.10 254.19 3.12 12.27 -18.7%
Prices in U$, NYSE/NASDAQ tickers Portfolio avg 34.27%
In a week marked by sector-wide selling, our Basket list did well and lost a lot less than the
GDX benchmark. That thanks to owning three stocks that fought the gold headwinds and
managed to return a weekly win, so applause for Alamos Gold (AGI up 8.9%), Newmont (NEM
up 3.9%) and Agnico (AEM up 0.1%). Of the seven losers, the biggest drop was taken by
Special K (KGC down 7.4%). The week was marked by company-specific rallies on earnings
beats, Yamana (not featured here) another to have bucked the trend with NEM and AGI and for
the same reasons. We consider our two biggest weekly winners below, but thoughts also turn
to Barrick (GOKD) as they are about to report this week, November 5th. As NEM and GOLD are
joined at the hip these days (Carlin Trend, Pueblo Viejo) keep an eye out for potential record
numbers out of Bristow’s gig too.
The 2020 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
60%
comparative to GDX control
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
Newmont (NEM): Here is another company is in cash collection mode, but on a much grander
scale than SAND. Results included an eye-popping $1.3Bn in free cash flow, a treasury position
that improved $1.02Bn to reach $4.828Bn at quarter end Compare that to working capital,
which also improved but by at $651m, 2/3rds of the rate of cash. They improved the quarterly
17
ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 ts1ram ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5rpa ht21 ht91 ht62 r3yam ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7nuj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5luj ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2gua ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6pes ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4tco ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1von
The 2020 Producer Basket: Percentage difference between
GDX benchmark and basket (negative = IKN basket ahead)
2.0%
1.0%
basket
0.0%
gdx control
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
-6.0%
-7.0% source: Google, IKN calcs
-8.0%
ts13ceD ht5naJ ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 ts1ram ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5rpa ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yam ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7nuj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5luj ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2gua ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6pes ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4tco ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1von
source: IKN calc, NYSE/Nasdaq data

dividend by for the second time this year, too. NEM is in a hurry to build cash, it must have
plans for it at some point.
Alamos Gold (AGI): Anything NEM did on Friday, AGI did better on Thursday. Alamos
reported a blowout quarter (9), record free cash flow, record EPS (17c) and their main assets,
Island and Mulatos, coming out of the Covid-19 performance dip strongly. When CEO
McCluskey reported on the conference call that since end quarter the company had paid down
its financial obligations and was now debt free, the rally pushed on and AGI added a cool 13%
on the day. This week’s winning stock, hands down.
The Tiny Dogs
Here are our ten and after thirty-four weeks, the average is up by 35.81%:
company ticker price 16/2/20 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Aston Bay BAY.v 0.065 136.26 5.45 0.04 -38.5%
2 Chakana Copper PERU.v 0.175 93.2 43.34 0.465 165.7%
3 Constantine Met CEM.v 0.19 45.35 8.62 0.19 0.0%
4 Contact Gold C.v 0.175 84.472 11.83 0.14 -20.0%
5 Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.065 230.79 11.54 0.05 -23.1%
6 Salazar Res* SRL.v 0.18 126.55 36.70 0.29 61.1%
7 Radius Gold RDU.v 0.235 86.94 24.34 0.28 19.1%
8 Red Pine Expl RPX.v 0.035 477.22 19.09 0.04 14.3%
9 Warrior Gold WAR.v 0.055 68.2 7.16 0.105 90.9%
10 Wolfden Res WLF.v 0.13 129.532 25.26 0.195 50.0%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV (*SRL price from May 2nd) basket avg 35.81%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list that represents what’s going on in the
whole sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two case I’ve stretched the window a little
and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
18

 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The Tiny Dogs took a big hit last week, the basket average down over 14% with just three
stocks unchanged (CEM.v, MTU.v, RPX.v) to stop the rot. The other seven were losers,
including the big droppers Warrior Gold (WAR.v down 19.2%), Chakana Copper (PERU.v down
17.0%), Contact Gold (C.v down 15.2%) and Salazar (SRL.v down 12.1%). There was little
escape from the carnage at the tinycap level, the dry asks making for heavy losses for anyone
needing to sell.
Contact Gold (C.v): I’m slightly late to this, but hindsight also allows useful context. Three
weeks ago in IKN594 dated October 11th, we ended a brief comment on Contact Gold (C.v) with
these words:
“…it’s notable how at some point in 2020 Green Springs became C.v’s flagship
and Pony Creek got quietly shuffled down the pack. Considering the amount
of drill time, money and effort that went into Pony Creek, the least
shareholders deserve would be an explanation of this quiet revisionism.”
Lo and behold, two Thursdays ago on October 22nd as part of an update on Green Springs
activity, we learn this (10):
“Drilling at Green Springs has been very productive so far. Due to the timing and focus
on the Green Springs program, the Pony Creek drill program has been pushed to 2021
to avoid working at higher elevations late in the year where weather could be become
a limiting factor to drilling productivity.”
Confirmed, it’s all about Green Springs now. Pony Creek, over which I was flown, is being
shuffled out the back and its fate now depends on neighbour Gold Standard Ventures (GSV)
being able to deliver an attractive mine model for Railroad. All the same, the above corporate
comment means “March minimum” for any C.v activity at Pony Creek, what was once the
flagship asset. Meanwhile, Green Springs to date has seen some good results, but there’s still a
long way to go before we know whether it will interest near neighbour Fiore Gold (F.v) or other
potential buyer. In this market, “no compelling reason to own” becomes visual:
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It is possible that in the
future I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, but at the moment both my opinion and my wallet are strictly
neutral.
Regional politics
Ecuador: Lundin Gold (LUG.to) CSR fail
If you only had Lundin Gold (LUG.to) and the government of Ecuador as your sources for the
19

following story, you’d probably think that on October 15th or 17th, a road bridge over a local
river collapsed in the Zamora Chinchipe region of Ecuador. Then Lundin Gold, a mining
company close by, says it will help repair the bridge but two two weeks later and for some
unknown reason, Ecuador’s government announces (11) that some 40 people are illegally
blockading the company gates for the last 11 days and orders them to disperse. However, IKN
has pother sources and this weekend, demands that something be done against Lundin Gold
(LUG.to) at Fruta del Norte (FDN) due to the recent bridge collapse reached national level. In
this op-ed (12), published in a national daily and seized upon by every anti-mining politician
and pressure group you can imagine, locals in the Zamora Chinchipe region around FDN
demanded that a State of Emergency be declared for the road connecting to the region due to
firstly to the bridge collapse, but also to its poor state of maintenance and repair seen in many
other places (the op-ed names bridges in seven different locations that require emergency
repairs, “and others”).
As for the facts, on October 15th the bridge at the “Los Encuentros” community collapsed
(photo and report (13)). It was one week after a 4.1mag quake hit the zone, but locals are in
no doubt as to the reason, as trucks from the FDN mine have over-used the bridge for many
years. The op-ed states the anger felt against the mine in clear but calm terms, then points out
there are already enough potential charges to be laid against Lundin Gold (LUG.to) at Fruta del
Norte to see the company see its mining licence suspended. For sure, under the Lenín Moreno
government that’s unlikely to happen but it points to both the poor optics and timing of LUG’s
bridge issues; Up to now, LUG has enjoyed an optimum level CSR profile thanks mostly to its
proactive community work during development, but it’s clear they have dropped the ball; This
report on the event (12) noting that the cause of the bridge collapse was the repeated use of
the infrastructure by trucks out of Fruta del Norte and that (translated), “…for years the
population has demanded, via road blocks and marches, that a new bridge be built…”. There is
no doubt in any local mind who is to blame for the collapse that has left 19 communities
without road links and within 48 hours, LUG management and executives had told local
authorities they would fix and install a new bridge on their own coin, as tacit an admission as
you would ever need. However, it’s the long-term neglect of roads that had obviously
deteriorated which concerns this author the most, all at a time when campaign groups ramping
into a Presidential election want all ammunition possible against the industry in Ecuador.
Ecuador: Voter intention for a three horse race
On that subject, a new voter intention survey out of reasonably reliable pollster CEDATOS last
week (14) puts the race like this:
That was 2,600 people in 24 urban and rural zones on October 16th. Ecuador’s election is
already down to a three horse race, with Guillermo Lasso now in clear pole position but without
the numbers to avoid a second round run-off. Andrés Arauz (Rafa Correa’s dauphin) has lost a
couple of percentage points, while Yaku Pérez has gained a couple. However, all candidates will
be looking to the right of that charts, there’s still around a third of votes up for grabs in a
20

country where the vote is obligatory (e.g. still time to change “spoil ballot” intention for an
active vote).
The potential surprise package is still Yaku Pérez, who will take cheer from being given a
double figure voter intention number by CEDATOS for the first time, in four previous polls from
this company he was between 5.5% and 9.6%. However, a good campaign will be more
important to his Pachakutik party than whether the candidate scores second or third place, they
are positioning as the “viable alternative power” in Ecuador and will have plenty of
congressional seats to parlay that position. With the Cuenca anti-mining vote on December 13th
almost guaranteed to bring momentum, your author’s list of reasons to avoid exposure to
Ecuador got even longer this week.
Colombia: President Duque is surviving the pandemic
The bi-annual “Polimétrica” survey run in Colombia by respected pollster “Cifras y Conceptos”
are important temperature checks of the country’s political calendar. In April 2020, with Covid-
19’s effects starting to show in the region and governments taking necessary actions, President
Iván Duque scored a positive image of 43%, versus negative of 57%. In the firm’s October
update, published last week, Duque’s numbers have worsened and he now scores a positive
image of 37% and negative 63%.
However, insider “positive image” are those who are indifferent about politics, so for a better
gauge of his true favourability we note that his best “I agree with his policy on….” score,
covering a range of political issues, was 15%. What we are left with is an unpopular President
who will govern without any type of true institutional crisis and see out his term easily, most
likely doing unpopular things along the way (15). Many Heads of State are likely to be jealous.
Bolivia: History is written by the victors
It didn’t take long for the MAS Party to start exacting its revenge on the interim government of
Jeanine Añez, who they accuse of legitimizing a Coup, persecuting fellow MAS party members
and hanging on to power for over a year and committing no end of acts of corruption while at
the helm. Their first target is ex-Interim President (a mouthful) Añez herself, with the outgoing
parliament finally receiving a Human Rights report on the riots and disturbances of last year.
The report was deliberately held back because of its content, highly critical toward the interim
government, accusing it of deliberate over-use of force. With MAS now back in de facto power,
the now defeated government can do nothing to stop parliament from laying criminal charges
and here’s Al Jazeera (16) to explain:
Bolivia’s outgoing parliament approved a motion recommending that ex-interim president Jeanine
Anez and her ministers face justice for responsibility over last year’s unrest which left around 30
people dead.
The Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, meeting in joint session, approved on Thursday a
parliamentary report on the “massacres of Senkata, Sacaba and Yapacani, which recommends a
judgment of responsibility against Jeanine Anez for genocide and other offenses”, according to
the Senate’s Twitter account.
For what it’s worth and laying party politics aside, there plenty of vengeance hype in Bolivia
today. We’ve seen the death by beating of a prominent union leader and MAS supporter, we
have seen politicians subject to physical attacks (tomatoes and eggs so far, can get worse
quickly). The abuses of power laid out in this report may not quite reach the accusations of
genocide being leveled against Añez and Bolivia’s interim government, however there are
obviously criminal charges to answer and whoever ordered them, the abuses of power are both
ugly and obvious. Easy to avoid the country as an investment destination, that will not change
in the near or medium-term, as from today consider it as one less place to worry about.
Peru promotes its Prior Consultancy of communities
Perhaps Peru’s new and effective Mining Minister, Luis Miguel Incháustegui, got fed up with
having to read yet another headline out of Southern Copper (SCCO) telling the world they were
still looking to build Tia Maria as soon as possible.
21

Last week Peru started something of a charm offensive on mine permitting, pushing back
against any image of problematic community relations with mining companies. In this interview
(17) we hear that there re current 15 mining projects, including two under construction, that
have gone through and passed the so-called Prior Consultancy hearings that are required to
give social licence to any large civil works project (these include Minera IRL at Ollachea, of
course).
That’s not a bad list and while your author’s eye can pick out from the detailed list those
projects that are many years from getting any green light (e.g. Barrick’s Misha), they do make a
solid case for the prior consultancy process. MINEM also points out that its recent rule changes
mean the process must now be expedited in a shorter period of time. A final big new plus for
mining companies in Peru is the re-adoption of the “administrative silence” rules, which mean
that once a permit application is made, the government must complete its decision in a
maximum time limit, else the permit is granted automatically. It’s not by chance that a whole
bunch of juniors are suddenly drilling in Peru.
2020/2021 is now officially a La Niña weather season
Following on from the “Heavy rains predicted for South Peru” note of last weekend, on
Thursday 29th the World Meteorological Organization (18) made the next 12 months an official
season for La Niña, with their current expectations of effects being “moderate to severe” (which
covers just about everything). For the record, they call a 90% probability that sea temperatures
remain above the La Niña trigger levels until year end, with a 55% chance those temperatures
continue to the end of March 2021. The last “severe” La Niña was the 2010/2011 season and in
a severely affected season, Central America and Caribbean sees higher levels of hurricane
activity. This fits with the tropical storm now aiming in the general direction of Nicaragua and
due to make landfall next week. Meanwhile, Nothern South America (to Peru approx) can see
intense rainfall, while the Southern Cone (Chile Argentina etc) has droughts. All these things
make tracking of this year’s weather phenomenon and important focus for this publication,
expect updates in the weeks ahead
South American drilling companies forecast a strong 2021
This desk has heard talk on a couple of recent occasions on how South American drilling
company order books are filling for 2021 season. Last week brought a published report on the
hearsay, with drill company “Rock Drill Contratistas Civiles y Mineros” of Peru (a name known to
several readers) offering a potential explanation. In the words of Herbert Vilcapoma, owner
Rock Drill (19), “Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, (producer) mining companies are currently
drilling at 20% capacity. Therefore, the 80% they are not drilling will need to be drilled next
year, which will generate a lot of demand.” To date Rock Drill has always been a third party
exploration drill contractor, but has now created a division to cater for operating mines and it’s
this new arm that’s filling the order books, rather than exploration companies. The inference is
that Third Party labs shouldn’t be as inundated in the upcoming season (most operating mines
run in-house labs for active assets), but getting hold of a drill rig may become more difficult and
expensive for exploreco.
Market Watching
Kuya Silver (KUYA.cse) redux
As it’s not going to make the ‘Stocks to Follow’ notes before any initial purchase, the follow-up
work on last week’s NOBS report will have to go here. This time last weekend KUYA was a
C$1.25 stock, today it’s a $1.19 stock but along the way, on Friday it dropped as low as C$1.09.
22

The better news is that seemed to trigger a bargain hunter, as half the 160k volume that day
was a buyer stepping in at C$1.10. We shall see if that holds, as silver is the obvious main
influence on KUYA and your guess is as good as mine on the price of silver this time next
weekend, let alone year-end. However and tentatively, the weakness in silver last week was in
line with the house bear theory due to the recession. Not in a hurry to own silver exposure, but
KUYA.cse is still high on the 2021 shopping list.
Conclusion
IKN597 is done, we end with bullet points:
 Sandstorm Gold (SAND) (SSl.to) isn’t the only royalty/streamer to have been hit by the
Covid-19 downturn, but its newly defensive corporate outlook makes it a bargain at
these levels. We’re at the price point where a RGLD or FNV need look no further for
their next growth leg up, SAND would offer the acquirer a rock solid balance sheet and
performing assets at much lower multiples than the major royaltycos, making the
acquisition automatically accretive even after baking in a buyout premium to AND’s
current U$7.40 share price. The purchaser of SAND not only gets zero debt, but would
also inherit an untapped term loan facility the cash treasury increases so EV drops.
 See you on the other side of the US election. Whoever loses or wins, it’s not the end of
the world and getting Covid-19 under control in The USA will more important than the
name of the President under whose watch it happens. Man-made science will eventually
beat a natural virus, because humans beings are the most efficient evolution this planet
has produced to date. Still early days, mind you.
 It’s one thing to start liking copper’s chances again, another to find a suitable vehicle.
Capstone (CS.to) flattered to deceive once more, but Copper Mountain (CMMC.to) has
had my eye as a newly reliable operator and its recent exploration results were
promising, too. CMMC reports tomorrow AM and has my day planned around it.
 Managed to get through a whole edition without featuring Top Picks or mentioning
much about any of the largest house positions. Or Covid-19. Must be an election week.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good hand-washing fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Mark
23

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sandstorm-gold-royalties-announces-2020-203000444.html
(2) https://finance.yahoo.com/m/dc961f54-0c6f-30f7-8351-98f868fdc909/sandstorm-gold-sand-q3-2020.html
(3) https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/pucara-gold-commences-drilling-at-lourdes-gold-project-834710602.html
(4) https://mailchi.mp/298d4119a09e/royal-road-minerals-investor-newsletter-november?e=aefb041a80
https://www.royalroadminerals.com/news/2020/royal-road-minerals-announces-drilling-results-provides-exploration-
update-for-its-guint%c3%a4r-niverengo-project-colombia/
(5) https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/10/29/2117137/0/en/COFIDE-Update.html
(6) https://iknnews.com/the-ceo-of-minera-irl-mirl-cse-is-on-u500000-cash-per-year/
(7) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/copper-mountain-mining-third-quarter-133000747.html
(8) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/copper-mountain-appoints-peter-sullivan-130000663.html
(9) https://produceredition.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1379598&tp_key=9549f68559
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alamos-gold-reports-third-quarter-210000822.html
(10) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/contact-gold-provides-exploration-green-113000446.html
(11) https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2020/11/01/ingreso-a-mina-de-oro-de-canadiense-lundin-gold-en-
ecuador-bloqueado-desde-hace-14-dias/
(12) https://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/2020/10/17/nota/8017225/cae-puente-sobre-rio-zamora-zamora-chinchipe
(13) https://cronica.com.ec/2020/10/31/puentes-de-zamora-chinchipe-destruidos-por-exceso-de-tonelaje/
(14) https://primeraplanaec.wordpress.com/2020/10/28/lasso-lidera-la-intencion-de-voto-segun-encuesta-de-cedatos/
(15) https://www.eltiempo.com/politica/gobierno/asi-esta-la-imagen-de-duque-segun-encuesta-de-cifras-y-conceptos-
545851
(16) https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/30/bolivia-parliament-recommends-charges-against-jeanine-anez
(17) https://gestion.pe/economia/minem-hay-15-proyectos-mineros-en-los-que-ya-se-aprobo-la-consulta-previa-noticia/
(18) https://news.un.org/es/story/2020/10/1483212
(19) https://iimp.org.pe/actualidad-minera/rock-drill-proyecta-un-buen-ano-2021-para-los-proveedores-de-la-
exploracion-minera
24

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
25

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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