4 The IKN Weekly, issue 397 — Dec 25, 2016
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The IKN Weekly
Week 397, December 25th 2016
Contents
This Week: Christmas schedule revised, Signs of life in the miners.
Fundamental Analysis: Next week.
Stocks to Follow: Overview, Starcore Intl (SAM.to), Rye Patch Gold (RPM.v), Sandstorm Gold
(SAND) (SSL.to), Cordoba Minerals (CDB.v), Atico Mining (ATY.v), Excellon Resources (EXN.to),
Continental Gold (CNL.to), Regulus Resources (REG.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Revelo Resources (RVL.v).
Low Cost Producer Basket: Overview, New Gold (NGD).
Regional Politics: Regional Reivew next week.
Market Watching: A comment on Arizona Minerals (AZ.to), Yamana and Brio Gold: A potential
short.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Christmas schedule revised
The way in which Christmas Day and New Year’s Day fall on Sundays had me trimming back
this and the next edition too, according to last weekend’s message at least, but after a word of
advice from a Market Professional and second thoughts personally I’ve changed the schedules
of today’s IKN397 and next week’s IKN398 somewhat. It occurred to me that rather than
having two thinnish editions, it’s better to keep today’s to a bare minimum and put all the
content into next week’s (new basket components, “What I’d Buy Now”, Regional Risk Review).
• For one thing, it makes for a better read next weekend instead of two disappointing
missives in a row.
• For another thing, I doubt many people will care about this Christmas weekend edition
anyway and you all have better things to dp.
• For a third and last, the last week of the business year is always a quiet one, whereas
the first week of the new year is back to business and real work.
Therefore, today’s edition really is bare bones only, marking the week with very little comment
or analysis, then moving on to next week’s IKN398 which will be a correct and decently sized
read. The only thing apart from the numbers are a few words on covered stocks where
necessary, I’d ask for my money back if I were you.
Signs of life in the miners
Gold prices basically trod water last week, with GLD down 0.1% and the market set on thin
trading around the U$1,130/oz level. So it was good to see some modest positivity filter into the
precious metals mining sector with GDX up 1.7% and GDXJ up 0.9% (as long as we include the
small dividends they paid out on Monday 19th). It wasn’t much to get hot and sweaty about, it
was quiet last week and promises to be the same in the days before 2017 as well, but it was
clear evidence that the miners had become oversold and all it took was for gold to flatten out in
order to see value traders move in.
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Stocks to Follow
Smallish movements on low volumes was the order of the week and by the end, it was a mixed
bag of results on pure numerical terms with seven stocks up (SAND, CDB.v, SAM.to, EXN.to,
ATY.v, RPM.v, CNL.to), seven stocks down (BTO.to REG.v, TK.v, WDO.to, RRI.v, R.to, LRA.v)
and one unchanged (FCV.v). The only exceptions were the two double figure percentage
winners Starcore (SAM.to up 20.9%) and Rye Patch (RPM.v up 13.6%), plus the biggest loser
Riverside (RRI.v down 12.1%).
We currently have 15 open positions on the ‘Stocks to Follow’ list, our self-imposed maximum
number at any given time. Eight of the positions are in the green, seven in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
B2Gold BTO.to STR buy C$2.11 12-sep-14 C$2.86 35.5% tgt $5.30 IKN375, good Q3
Regulus Res REG.v hold C$0.64 06-apr-15 C$1.19 85.9% LT exploreco top pick
Long positions (in current order of preference)
Sandstorm Gold SAND STR buy U$3.80 17-apr-16 U$3.48 -8.4% $7 tgt IKN378, v cheap again
Tinka Res TK.v buy C$0.195 19-apr-16 C$0.21 7.7% Under-radar Zn.
Wesdome Gold WDO.to hold C$1.72 22-may-16 C$2.08 20.9% Will sell at $2.88
Cordoba Min. CDB.v STR buy C$0.73 15-sep-16 C$0.70 -4.1% $1.50 tgt sub 70c great price
Starcore Intl SAM.to part sell C$0.61 10-jan-15 C$0.55 -9.8% ex-Top Pick, reducing position
Excellon Res EXN.to spec buy C$1.71 09-oct-16 C$1.77 3.5% Hit by Ag sell-off, $3.13 tgt
Atico Mining ATY.v STR buy C$0.51 24-jul-16 C$0.75 47.1% New tgt $1.10, Cu play
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v STR buy C$0.32 02-sep-16 C$0.25 -21.9% 75c tgt, strong value
Riverside Res RRI.v buy C$0.39 27-jun-16 C$0.40 2.6% Added IKN380, 60c tgt
Continental Gold CNL.to STR buy C$2.68 22-may-16 C$3.69 37.7% $4.80 tgt, hold thru 1q17
Red Eagle Min. R.to buy C$0.71 13-dec-16 C$0.66 -7.0% New long, small starter
Lara Expl. LRA.v hold C$1.15 08-apr-12 C$0.87 -25.2% solid biz model
Focus Ventures FCV.v hold C$0.23 01-jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% needs JV deal
Short positions
None at present
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 closed positions in appendices below
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Now for notes on just a few of the current basket stocks, there really wasn’t much going on.
Starcore Intl (SAM.to): Reduced from Top Pick. It was a good rebound week for SAM, up
over 20% from the extremely oversold numbers recently seen. The move came with a
reasonably amount of volume (in SAM terms anyway) with the 162k traded on Thursday
pointing to somebody else who has seen value. Or maybe SAM is about to tell us that it’s closed
that real estate deal and somebody got wind of the news first, we shall see.
Regarding my personal decision to drop SAM from Top Pick and reduce my holdings, I’ll take
this paragraph to answer in public a few mails received duting the course of the week. As yet I
haven’t sold a single share, as noted last weekend I reall am in no hurry to dump and it was
patently obvious that its previous 45c-or-so price was way too low. I’d consider beginning to
lighten at these current prices, but I’m not going to hit any buttons until the New Year. And to
be clear, I still like SAM as a trade because if I didn’t I wouldn’t merely be reducing exposure,
I’d be selling it all. My issue is that it’s no longer Top Pick material, it’s a speculative shot at a
big win now rather than a solid investment-like opportunity (we can debate whether there’s any
real difference between a speculation and an investment in this sector another day, you’ve
probably got my point so forgive any semantics).
Rye Patch Gold (RPM.v), Sandstorm Gold (SAND), Cordoba Minerals (CDB.v), Atico
Mining (ATY.v), B2Gold (BTO.to): I’m happy to say that after picking out these four as
being very oversold last weekend and lumping them together, they all put in gains. Particularly
pleasing to see CDB and ATY shrug off the softening copper price and showing their chops.
Excellon Resources (EXN.to): EXN did well to consolidate its sharp gains of the week before
and then extend them, its performance franking my opinion that this stock is the best value
thing in the whole silver space. We got news from EXN too, Tuesday bringing a NR with two
separate subjects (1). Firstly EXN now has two more on its board of directors and they’re strong
names too (check out the biogs yourself). Secondly, we got news on how the pump installation
is going and to confirm the jungledrums of last weekend’s edition, EXN said that the pumps
were being installed but it’s not going as quickly as they’d like (for acceptable reasons) so the
timeline is now aiming to get it all 100% done by the end of next quarter. The IKN model on
this up to now was to expect some improvement in production for 4q16, then the real change
up coming in 1q17. I still don’t think that’s far off, but once the 4q16 production numbers are in
(should be mid-January) I’ll be looking to make cash flow adjustments and I’m guessing right
now that my original model will need to get set back by half a quarter or so. I’m not worried
about this development and would much prefer EXN to take this key production upgrade project
slowly but surely, but the combo of later production upgrade and today’s lower silver prices
almost certainly mean my current model is now optimistic for 1q17 and 2q17.
In trading, as noted on the blog (2) we now know mor about that big block buyer of the week
before. It was Factor Advisors, the shop behind the Pure Funds ETF (SILJ) which build 5X into
its position, presumably as it re-weights the ETF holdings. Above is the Bloomie screenshot as
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featured in the blog post.
Continental Gold (CNL.to): After reading my site visit report last week Ari Sussman quickly
got in touch, said he’d like to talk and was I available during the week. I immediately replied
saying that yes I was. He hasn’t been in touch since. Fair enough. In trading CNL did well
enough and saw decent volumes too, but all without blasting back over the $4 level where it
really should be by now.
Regulus Resources (REG.v): Down 8c on the week on thin volumes, REG is suffering from
market apathy and there’s nothing wrong with the company internally. News should start
flowing from the company soon though, as 1q17 sees the drilling program at Antakori kicking
off. As it’s going to be a rolling program of several stages, regular newsflow all through 2017
should put this name onto more people’s radars.
The Copper Basket
After fifty-one weeks of 2016, The Copper Basket shows a 115.52% gain to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/16 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Ivanhoe Mines IVN.to 0.61 778.96 1869.50 2.40 293.4%
2 HudBay Min. HBM.to 5.31 235.23 1773.63 7.54 42.0%
3 Capstone Min. CS.to 0.44 382.04 450.81 1.18 168.2%
4 Reservoir Min. RMC.v 4.08 48.69 449.41 9.23 126.2%
5 NGEx Resources NGQ.to 0.65 205.06 246.07 1.20 84.6%
6 Western Copper WRN.to 0.38 94.19 149.76 1.59 318.4%
7 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 0.445 118.8 104.54 0.88 97.8%
8 Atico Mining ATY.v 0.28 97.59 73.19 0.75 167.9%
9 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 0.395 104.33 64.68 0.62 57.0%
10 Nevada Copper NCU.to 0.66 80.5 61.18 0.76 15.2%
11 Cordoba Min. CDB.v 0.16 86.86 60.80 0.70 337.5%
12 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.205 173.61 59.03 0.34 65.9%
13 Copper Fox CUU.v 0.125 417.64 54.29 0.13 4.0%
14 Hot Chili Ltd HCH.ax 0.09 445.723 14.71 0.033 -63.3%
15 Revelo Res. RVL.v 0.055 128.486 8.35 0.065 18.2%
NB: HCH.ax priced in AUD$, rest CAD$ Portfolio avg 115.52%
A mixed bag in the copper space last week too, with the smaller names generally doing better
than the bigger ones and propping up the
overall basket percentage gains. There The Copper Basket 2016, weekly evolution
140%
were five winners on the week (NCU.to,
120%
TMQ.to, WRN.to, ATY.v, CDB.v), four
100%
unchanged stocks (RMC.v, NGQ.to, CUU.v,
80%
ARG.to) and six losers (HBM.to, IVN.to,
60%
CS.to, CMMC.to, HCH.ax, RVL.v), but the
40%
weight of the winners managed to get the 20%
overall basket up a point. Of the bigger 0%
moves, up was Western Copper & Gold -20%
(WRN.to up 13.6%) and down was Revelo
Resources (RVL.v down 18.8%), though the
7.9% lost by HudBay is worthy of an extra
line as that one has fallen sharply from its big rush up move earlier in the month.
This time last week I wrote that, “I now fully expect to see sub-U$2.50/lb as the market digests
the sudden oversupply data” and that prediction mere hours to fulfill, Monday seeing the big
drop and the rest of last week seeing copper trading at-or-below U$2.50/lb. Spot closed at
U$2.47 Friday and that’s a number which looks far more sustainable. We may get some near-
4
dr3naj ht71 ts13 ht41 ht82 ht31 ht72 ht01 ht42 ht8 dn22 ht5nuj ht91 dr3luj ht71 ts13 ht41 ht82 ht11 ht52 ht9 dr32 ht6von ht72 ht11 ht52
source: IKN calcs
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term weakness, but the worst of it all is now behind us.
Now for the regular weekly copper warehouse inventory bullets:
• Overall world copper inventory levels moved up again, not quite as impressively as last
week’s 100k+ change but enough to confirm the new trend. Stocks rose by 20,895
metric tonnes (mt) (+4.0%) in the three official systems combined to close Friday at
545,882mt.
• However, the SHFE Shanghai warehouse inventory saw a drop in holdings of 9,649mt (-
6.7%) to 134,377mt. The SHFE taking a breather before the real fun begins in January.
• At the LME inventories made another big move, rising this time by 27,750mt (+9.0%)
to finish at 334,825mt. The pattern is now in.
• Comex stocks rose again and are adding a little faster now, this time up 2,794mt
(+3.8%) to close Friday at 76,680mt. This is the highest stock level at Comex for a
long time.
Here’s the regular Shanghai-only chart and stocks are now girding their loins for the big
inventory entries that come in January and February. I doubt we’ll see a peak as high as the
one last year, but 200k quickly and 300k eventually are very logical.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014-2016
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
5
ht5naj ht61 ht03 ht11 dn22 dr3gua ht41 ht62 ht7ced ht81 ts1ram ht21 ht42 ht5luj ht61 ht72 ht8 ht02 ts13 ht31 ht42 ht5nuJ ht71 ht82 ht9 ht72
Mt Cu
source: Cochilco
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Now for notes on a couple of the basket component stocks:
Revelo Resources (RVL.v): Although I’m not going to tip my hand this weekend and reveal
the names of the new Copper Basket (or Producer Basket) make-up, I will say that Revelo
Resources is one that will stay as part of this list next year. This despite an overall poor
performance from the stock and a share price that has remained low. If copper does put on a
spurt in 2017, I think RVL is just the type of stock that could offer excellent potential gains
thanks to its large land package in Chile.
The Low Cost Producer Basket
After 51 weeks of 2016, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 50.04% to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/16 Shares out Mkt Cap (Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 17.98 530.595 17.22 32.46 80.5%
2 Barrick ABX 7.38 1165.33 16.96 14.55 97.2%
3 Goldcorp GG 11.56 832.381 10.49 12.60 9.0%
4 Franco Nevada FNV 45.75 178.01 10.31 57.90 26.6%
5 Agnico Eagle AEM 26.28 223.475 8.68 38.86 47.9%
6 Ang/Ashanti AU 7.10 405.27 4.00 9.88 39.2%
7 Buenaventura BVN 4.28 254.19 2.64 10.40 143.0%
8 Detour Gold DGC.to 14.41 174.06 2.78 16.00 11.0%
9 New Gold NGD 2.32 512.8 1.62 3.16 36.2%
10 Sibanye Gold SBGL 6.09 228.71 1.53 6.69 9.9%
Prices in U$/NYSE tickers, except DGC.to (CAD$) Portfolio avg 50.04%
New Gold was the only loser among the ten, down 4.2% on the news of the loss of its COO.
The other nine rose, but moves were moderate in quiet Chirstmas week trading and the best
upper, Agnico Eagle, only managed 4.2%. Still it was enough to get our basket average back
over 50% for the year and put in a slight gain against the GDX benchmark.
At the top of the pile, Newmont looks like finishing the year as the world’s biggest publicly
traded precious metals company (note verbal gymnstics to avoid including BHP, Zijin etc) but
Barrick is still in with a shot on a good percentage week. And check out Franco Nevada, now
nipping at the heels of the erstwhile market-champ Goldcorp.
The Low Cost Producer Basket: Weekly performance
200% and comparative to GDX control
180%
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
New Gold (NGD): When you’re in the latter stages of a critical built-out at a major project and
your COO abruptly leaves the company with no reason given, it doesn’t matter how you pretty
up the news release, it’s going to go down like a lead balloon. Frankly I wonder why companies
go to all the trouble to dress news in the way NGD did last week...
TORONTO, Dec. 19, 2016 /PRNewswire/ - New Gold Inc. ("New Gold") (NGD) (NYSE
6
dr3naj ht71 ts13 ht41 ht82 ht31 ht72 ht01 ht42 ht8 dn22 ht5nuj ht91 dr3luj ht71 ts13 ht41 ht82 ht11 ht52 ht9 dr32 ht6von ht72 ht11 ht52
Low Cost Basket: Percentage difference between
basket and GDX control, 2016
5%
0% basket
gdx control -5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
source: Google, IKN calcs -35%
-40%
ht01 ht42 ht7bef ts12 ht6 ht02 dr3rpa ht71 s1yam ht51 ht92 ht21 ht62 ht01 ht42 ht7gua ts12 t4peS ht81 dn2tco ht61 ht03 ht31 ht4ced ht81
source: ikn calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq data
,
MKT:NGD) is pleased to announce that Hannes Portmann has been named President
of New Gold. Randall Oliphant will continue in his role of Executive Chairman and
Brian Penny will continue as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
David Schummer, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, is leaving
New Gold and Raymond Threlkeld, currently a member of the company's Board of
Directors, will become Interim Chief Operating Officer.
...trying to bury the obvious major event under a pile of secondary information and platitudes,
it just makes it look even worse for my
money. And as noted on the blog when
the news hit (8) the person taking over
from COO Schummer is Raymond
Threlkeld, the person who did the deal to
bring Rainy River into NGD in the first
place (way back when it was a U$650m
build-out and not the U$1Bn+ capex
project blowout of today.
NGD was a bit unlucky with timing too,
announcing the COO departure on
Monday evening and opening into the
softest day of the week Tuesday morning.
Some buyers turned up Wednesday but
the damage was already done and the
Christmas week apathy didn’t allow for any further rally.
Regional politics
Regional review next week
Nothing this week, next week we’ll do the big quarterly review.
Market Watching
A comment on Arizona Minerals (AZ.to)
Just about the only fun story as the year
winds down is Arizona Minerals (AZ.to), the
hotpot zinc exploreco company that has
flown higher than just about anything but
after the manganese exposé by Global
Mining Observer, has had its wings
somewhat clipped.
Now I’m not an expert on smelter matters
and won’t try to be, so I’m not going to
comment on whether the Mn content will
be a real issue. But what I do possess is a
fairly well-tuned Bullshit Detector, so when
a company on December 9th says (4), the
way AZ.to did, that...
“There’s a bit of manganese in it, but it’s not an issue. If anything, this is a positive.”
...(with “it” being the Taylor zinc orebody) and then, after having sustained criticism levelled at
the stock and seeing its share price drop significantly, less than two week later say (5)...
“We do know there's a problem, you know about certain amounts in zinc concentrates,
7
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so we're working on our metallurgical test work at (place name) to see what can be
done”
...there’s an issue somewhere. Perhaps the problem is innocent and perhaps there’s something
more nefarious but ultimately AZ.to is just like any other junior miner, it only has a story to sell
and if it cannot do that successfully its share price goes down. Therefore a logical bus can be
driven between the statements from the company just because it comes under a bit of publicity
pressure, there’s something wrong with the corporate message. If only for the mixed messages
from the company, it has deserved its share price punishment.
Yamana and Brio Gold: A potential short
There wasn’t much in the way of a market to watch last week but a few words are necessary
on the spin-out (term used loosely) of Brio Gold by Yamana. We know this was the third
attempt by YRI CEO Marrone to rid the parent company of the collection of marginal assets
lumped into its Brio subsidiary and as the final take-up of shares came to 15% (6), instead of
the 53.7% TRI wanted to sell, it’s also fair to say that although the spin-out was rammed
through it was still an unpopular issue. It comes down to price, of course. The plain fact is that
the market considered the $3.25 ask on Brio to be too high and by simple definition, come the
time that Brio starts trading it’s a clear candidate for shorting from this quasi-IPO level (if you
get the chance).
Conclusion
IKN397 is done, we end with bullet points:
• Very little for this Christmas day. Expcet a full-sizd issue next weekend as we wrap up
the year and set out the stall for 2017.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Regulus Resources (REG.v)
and B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen. Namaste.
Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) http://incakolanews.blogspot.pe/2016/12/at-least-we-now-know-big-buyer-of.html
(2) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/excellon-strengthens-board-appointments-120000768.html
(3) http://incakolanews.blogspot.pe/2016/12/new-gold-ngd-more-trouble-for-rainy.html
(4) http://www.globalminingobserver.com/378655
(5) http://incakolanews.blogspot.pe/2016/12/arizona-mining-azto-heres-what-he-said.html
(6) http://incakolanews.blogspot.pe/2016/12/yamana-gold-yrito-auy-and-brio-gold.html
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2014
Closed in 2014 closed close price
Fortuna Silver FVI.to jan'14 C$2.80 23-dec-13 C$3.19 13.9% small ST trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to jan'14 C$2.06 07-jun-13 C$2.30 11.7% trading position finally closed
Network Expl. NET.v feb'14 C$0.01 22-jul-12 C$0.005 -50.0% position closed, did nothing
Tahoe Resources TAHO feb'14 U$13.10 08-apr-13 U$21.72 -65.8% short closed due to reality
Darwin Res DAR.v mar'14 C$0.10 14-jul-12 C$0.045 -55.0% tiny risk play dropped
B2Gold BTO.to mar'14 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.35 9.1% closed to free up capital
Pretium Res PVG mar'14 U$5.38 22-nov-13 U$6.50 -20.8% short closed as port longer
Gold Res Corp GORO may'14 U$5.07 26-jan-14 U$4.12 16.7% took profit
Bear Creek Min BCM.v may'14 C$1.63 23-mar-14 C$2.05 25.8% Took profit, sm near-term win
Eco Oro Min. EOM.to aug'14 C$0.48 22-sep-13 C$0.26 -45.8% sold small loser to make room
True Gold TGM.v sep'14 C$0.395 02-feb-14 C$0.41 3.8% M&A won't happen, sold
Santacruz Silver SCZ.v sep'14 C$1.04 26-jan-14 C$0.86 -17.3% silver/M&A spec, rel. small
Timmins Gold TGD nov'14 U$1.38 09-apr-14 U$0.99 -28.3% failed trade, sell, raise cash
Kinross Gold KGC nov'14 U$2.90 20-oct-14 U$2.15 -25.9% V small trade, didn't work, chau
Salazar Res SRL.v hold C$0.28 02-mar-14 C$0.145 -48.2% lost China sponsor
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2013
Closed in 2013 closed close price
USA Graphite USGT feb'13 U$0.93 08-jan-13 U$0.17 81.7% short tgt made/trade closed
Lachlan Star LSA.to feb'13 C$1.50 30-sep-12 C$0.95 -36.7% sold to reduce port risk
United Silver USC.to mar'13 C$0.21 28-oct-12 C$0.095 -54.8% small Ag sector trade, failed
Aurcana Corp AUN.v apr'13 C$1.07 11-nov-12 C$0.55 -48.6% closed on poor YE results
Gold Res Corp GORO apr'13 U$14.11 25-jan-13 U$9.38 33.5% short tgt made/trade closed
Marlin Gold MLN.v apr'13 C$0.075 10-feb-13 C$0.065 -13.3% closed trade
Bear Creek BCM.v may'13 C$2.58 01-apr-13 C$2.40 -7.0% near-term, time ran out
Lupaka Gold LPK.to may'13 C$1.12 23-oct-11 C$0.32 -71.4% towel thrown in
Tahoe Resources TAHO may'13 U$18.62 08-apr-13 U$14.70 21.1% took profit on ST short
OceanaGold OGC.to jun'13 C$3.03 16-sep-12 C$1.18 -61.1% sold on gold drop
IMPACT Silver IPT.v jun'13 C$1.14 13-jan-13 C$0.62 -45.6% sold on silver drop
Duran Ventures DRV.v jun'13 C$0.045 10-may-13 C$0.025 -44.4% ST trade never worked
Plata Latina PLA.v jun'13 C$0.79 10-apr-12 C$0.13 -83.5% closed
Bellhaven BHV.v jun'13 C$0.065 03-jun-13 C$0.12 84.6% closed ST trade
B2Gold BTO.to aug'13 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.44 12.1% sold 1/2 to raise cash
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Colossus Min. CSI.to aug'13 C$0.72 24-jul-13 C$0.79 9.7% closed thru nerves on future
Pretium Res PVG.to aug'13 C$8.20 11-jun-13 C$10.14 23.7% closed to raise cash
Bear Creek BCM.v sep'13 C$2.06 30-may-13 C$2.20 6.8% sold on pol risk decision
MAG Silver MVG oct'13 U$7.00 12-sep-13 U$5.62 19.6% near-term short
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'13 U$9.52 03-may-13 U$4.98 47.7% short tgt made, covered
AQM Copper AQM.v oct'13 C$0.31 16-oct-11 C$0.125 -59.7% closed failed trade
First Majestic AG nov'13 U$11.51 07-nov-13 U$10.50 8.8% v near term short, closed
Fortuna Silver FSM nov'13 U$4.00 07-nov-13 U$3.68 8.0% v near term short, closed
Primero PPP nov'13 U$5.70 07-nov-13 U$5.75 -0.9% v near term short, closed
Starcore Intl SAM.to nov'13 C$0.235 08-sep-13 C$0.17 -27.7% ST trade didn't work, sm loss
B2Gold BTO.to dec'13 C$2.22 28-nov-12 C$2.16 -2.7% closed ST trade to raise cash
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2012
Closed in 2012 closed close PPS
Soltoro SOL.v jan'12 C$0.87 07-nov-11 C$0.94 8.0% cash moved to BCM.v
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to feb'12 C$0.84 13-oct-10 C$0.98 16.7% trade closed on ELG.v offer
Minefinders MFN feb'12 U$11.68 17-nov-11 U$14.80 26.7% target made, trade closed
Iron Creek IRN.v mar'12 C$0.58 26-sep-10 C$0.31 -46.6% time up on small bad trade
U.S. Silver USA.to apr'12 C$2.18 15-mar-12 C$1.86 -14.7% ST trade no good, cut loss
Augusta Res. AZC.to may'12 C$3.10 29-jan-12 C$2.07 -33.2% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Bellhaven BHV.v may'12 C$0.50 22-sep-10 C$0.28 -44.0% new mgmt not impressive
Zincore Metals ZNC.to may'12 C$0.325 29-jul-11 C$0.17 -47.7% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Soltoro SOL.v may'12 C$0.70 18-mar-11 C$0.41 -41.4% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
U.S. Silver USA.to aug'12 C$1.78 27-jul-12 C$1.36 -23.6% fail ST trade close pre split
Estrella Gold EST.v aug'12 C$0.91 27-mar-11 C$0.14 -84.6% Closed on port realignment
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'12 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.32 397.2% sell call $6.17/ Mar25
Strait Minerals SRD.v oct'12 C$0.125 09-dec-11 C$0.12 -4.0% closing coverage til FY13
Sunward Res SWD.to oct'12 C$1.47 13-mar-11 C$1.21 -17.7% sold, took loss
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'12 U$21.47 09-sep-12 U$17.40 19.0% Short trade closed
Yellowhead Min. YMI.to nov'12 C$1.00 01-apr-12 C$0.63 -37.0% sold, took loss
Primero Mining PPP nov'12 U$7.26 07-oct-12 U$6.73 7.3% Short trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v nov'12 C$3.38 07-nov-11 C$3.72 10.1% Took small profit
Vena Resources VEM.to dec'12 C$0.70 31-may-09 C$0.18 -74.3% Failed trade (caps F)
Galway Res GWY.v dec'12 C$2.19 24-nov-12 C$2.30 5.0% closed good ST arb trade
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2011
Closed in 2011 closed close PPS
Sunward Res SWD.v jan'11 C$1.05 21-nov-10 C$1.63 55.2% target made, trade closed
Serengeti Res SIR.v mar'11 C$0.245 05-dec-10 C$0.285 16.3% sold pre-tgt, ST trade fail
Fronteer Gold FRG apr'11 U$2.37 03-may-09 U$15.24 543.0% buyout, trade closed
Minefinders MFN apr'11 U$9.09 07-nov-10 U$16.89 85.8% target made, trade closed
Metalline Min. MMG may'11 U$1.04 26-jan-11 U$0.89 -14.4% exit, resource disappointed
Peregrine Met PGM.to jul'11 C$0.87 06-mar-11 C$2.60 198.9% buyout offer, closed
Dynasty Metals DMM.to jul'11 C$4.20 03-may-09 C$2.85 -32.1% Sold. Fail. Move on.
Aura Silver AUU.v aug'11 C$0.22 13-oct-10 C$0.16 -36.4% Bad pick. Take loss
U.S. Silver USA.v aug'11 C$0.52 26-jan-11 C$0.71 36.5% closed to make room
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'11 C$2.80 12-may-11 C$4.27 52.5% target made, trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v sep'11 C$3.80 27-may-11 C$4.17 9.7% macro sell call victim
Minefinders MFN sep'11 U$14.70 10-aug-11 U$15.15 3.1% macro sell call victim
Great Panther GPR.to sep'11 C$3.03 22-aug-11 C$2.64 -12.9% macro sell call victim
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'11 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.36 400.9% sold 20%, macro sell call
Focus Ventures FCV.v nov'11 C$0.40 20-apr-10 C$0.20 -50.0% cut losses, bad trade
Regulus Res. REG.v dec'11 C$1.17 14-aug-11 C$0.52 -55.6% cut on news of poor 43-101
2009 and 2010 closed positions in appendices below
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2010
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Closed in 2010 closed close PPS
B2Gold Corp BTO.to Jan'10 C$0.88 08-nov-09 C$1.49 68.2% target made, trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v Jan'10 C$0.18 23-aug-09 C$0.40 122.2% target made, trade closed
MAG Silver MVG mar'10 U$5.60 23-nov-09 U$7.28 30.0% closed in pdac week
Riverside Res RRI.v mar'10 C$0.435 20-sep-09 C$0.60 37.9% closed in pdac week
Amarillo Gold AGC.v mar'10 C$0.81 31-may-09 C$0.70 -13.6% closed in pdac week
B2Gold Corp BTO.to apr'10 C$1.24 18-feb-10 C$1.50 21.0% target made, trade closed
Lumina Copper LCC.v apr'10 C$0.84 14-jun-09 C$1.55 51.2% total position now sold
Troy Resources TRY.to may'10 C$1.10 03-may-09 C$2.25 104.5% sold on negative results
AuEx Ventures XAU.to may'10 C$2.51 24-may-09 C$3.38 34.7% trade closed
Nevada Copper NCU.to jun'10 C$3.27 14-mar-10 C$2.03 -37.9% need to lower Cu exposure
Carpathian Gold CPN.to jun'10 C$0.39 14-mar-10 C$0.35 -10.3% too exposed to cap raising
Amerix PM Corp APM.v jun'10 C$0.065 08-nov-09 C$0.05 -23.1% victim of macro bear
Antares Minerals ANM.v jun'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$2.10 47.9% sold half
Vena Resources VEM.to jun'10 C$0.37 31-may-09 C$0.23 -37.8% sold half
Minera Andes MAI.to sep'10 C$0.75 28-jul-10 C$0.95 26.7% ST trade closed
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to sep'10 C$0.52 01-aug-10 C$0.75 44.2% target made, trade closed
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'10 C$1.45 25-may-10 C$2.01 34.5% target made, trade closed
Blue Sky Uran BSK.v oct'10 C$0.41 19-may-10 C$0.22 -46.3% v small v bad trade closed
Dia Bras Expl DIB.v oct'10 C$0.14 30-aug-09 C$0.35 150.0% target made, trade closed
S. Amer. Silver SAC.to nov'10 C$1.38 24-oct-10 C$1.60 -15.9% loss on short, small fail
Ventana Gold VEN.to nov'10 C$7.92 27-jun-10 C$13.51 70.6% trade closed on buyout
Lumina Copper LCC.v nov'10 C$1.42 11-aug-10 C$3.65 157.0% trade closed
Antares Minerals ANM.v dec'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$8.40 491.5% trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.v dec'10 C$0.69 23-mar-10 C$2.16 213.0% trade closed
Coro Mining COP.to dec'10 C$0.585 03-oct-10 C$1.24 112.0% target made, trade closed
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2009
Closed positions closed closing PPS
Cardero Res CDY/CDU.to May'09 U$1.20 03-May-09 U$0.87 -27.5% sold on negative news
Eastmain Res. ER.to May'09 C$1.04 06-May-09 C$1.315 26.4% trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v May'09 C$0.165 03-May-09 C$0.235 42.4% trade closed
Latin Amer Min. LAT.v May'09 C$0.12 03-May-09 C$0.158 29.2% trade closed
Aquiline Res. AQI.to July'09 C$2.03 16-Jun-09 C$1.68 -17.2% took loss, bad timing
Chariot Resources CHD.to Aug'09 C$0.20 12-Jul-09 C$0.415 107.5% trade closed
Castle Gold CSG.v Sep'09 C$0.64 02-Aug-09 C$0.60 -6.3% ST trade didn't work out
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to Sep'09 C$2.30 12-May-09 C$4.50 95.7% profit taken
Los Andes Copper LA.v Sep'09 C$0.09 21-Jun-09 C$0.09 0% trade closed
Pediment Gold PEZ.to Oct'09 C$0.80 09-Aug-09 C$1.00 25.0% trade closed
Minera Andes MAI.to Oct'09 C$0.68 03-May-09 C$0.71 4.4% too much bad news
Dynasty Metals DMM.to Nov'09 C$4.18 03-May-09 C$6.01 43.8% half sold
Rusoro Mining RML.v Nov'09 C$0.55 03-May-09 C$0.57 3.6% underperformed
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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