IKN #393Premium

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The IKN Weekly
Week 393, November 27th 2016
Contents
This Week: Trade heads up, In today’s issue, After two weeks away, I know nothing, Back to
Medellín with CNL.
Fundamental Analysis: Colombia Gold Symposium notes and thoughts, the Cordoba Minerals
(CDB.v) site visit, the Red Eagle (R.to) site visit.
Stocks to Follow: Overview, Avino Silver & Gold (ASM) (ASM.v), Excellon Resources (EXN.to),
Wesdome Gold (WDO.to), Atico Mining (ATY.v), Tinka Resources (TK.v), Starcore Intl (SAM.to),
Riverside Resources (RRI.v), Lara Exploration (LRA.v), Continental Gold (CNL.to), Rye Patch
Gold (RPM.v), Sandstorm Gold (SAND) (SSL.to), B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG).
Copper Basket: Overview, Capstone Mining (CS.to), HudBay (HBM.to) (HBM), Amerigo
Resources (ARG.to), Copper Mountain (CUM.to), Nevada Copper (NCU.to), Copper Fox (CUU.v).
Low Cost Producer Basket: Overview.
Regional Politics: Next week
Market Watching: Atico Mining 3q16 financials and target price update, Why Angel Gold
(ANG.v), Eco Oro (EOM.to) and Continental Gold (CNL.to) Ross Beaty rumour, Minera IRL: Last
chance to vote (probably), Why I’m selling Avino Silver (ASM).
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads up
After the announcement of its horrid bought deal, I’m selling my position in Avino Silver & Gold
(ASM) (ASM.v) this week, taking the loss and moving on. See ‘Market Watching’ for details.
In today’s issue
• Two site visit reports, as your author hit the whistle-stop Colombia pairing of Cordoba
Minerals (CDB.v) and Red Eagle Mining (R.to) during his jaunt in Colombia. Plus
reflections on the excellent Colombia Gold Symposium in Medellín.
• We run the numbers on Atico Mining (ATY.v) and find there’s more than meets the eye
to the apparently slack 3q16 financials. A price target upgrade today.
• If you like them risky, my idea of a Colombia diamond in the rough is Angel Gold
(ANG.v), it’s got location and brainpower. If fortune adds some treasury, luck and a
better gold price this one could really reward those with high risk tolerance.
• Copper names continue to power ahead. Well, all except my picks anyway.
After two weeks away
As noted in the cringeing excuse mail of last week, in the end and after consideration The IKN
Weekly took a week off last week and today at last, IKN393 shows up. A couple of comments
needed. The first is to say that to make things simple the tracking tables and other week-over-
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week stuff we normally is simply going to jump two weeks, true for all parts of the Weekly.
[e.g. in the last edition of The IKN Weekly, IKN392 dated November 13th, GDX was at U$20.92.
Last weekend (Nov 20th) it was at U$21.05. This weekend it’s U$20.61. Today’s edition we
ignores last weekend’s price and calculates change as 31c ($20.92 minus $20.61), or -1.5%]
In effect I’m ignoring last weekend, pretending its numbers didn’t happen. Second, thank you
so much for all the reply mails, I was expecting at least some subscription cancelations, in fact
there were none and all the messages were supportive of the deferral. Greatly appreciated.
I know nothing
I need to get off my chest that I’m extremely annoyed and disappointed with my current
reading of the market, particularly since the post-Trump win but the failures and bad calls stem
back to before that. Reasonable macro calls such as the ones on zinc and copper recently are
all well and good but abjectly failing to capitalize on them defeats the object of this publication.
• Over the last three weeks my three preferred copper plays, Regulus Cordoba and Atico,
have done little else but tread water. But HudBay is up over 60%, just for one example.
• Yes I’ve managed to call zinc the metal correctly, but what use is that if I play the call
by investing in a zinc stock (Tinka) that hasn’t budged an inch in months?
• It’s one thing to begin to suspect a ‘value trap’ problem in a preferred position, quite
another to look impotently on while Starcore dissolves away nearly all its 2016 gains.
This is the worst of the lot, a Top Pick call too!
And even the macro calls have been dubious! It’s so easy to say, as I did in IKN392 two weeks
ago, that, “I see no reason for the precious metals market or the mining sector as a whole to
fear a Trump presidency, in fact he’s probably PM-positive over time”, because time is a cruel
master in the market and “yeah well you just wait!” the weakest of excuses from the charlatan
anal yst. The plain fact is that I called gold wrong in November and though I did expect
volatility I didn’t expect it to drop under U$1,200/oz, where we are this weekend. And as a
matter of fact on the back of the misjudgement of gold I moved into silver at the wrong time
(Excellon and Avino) and have paid a quick and painful price on those two, as well.
I know calling the markets isn’t easy, if it were there would be marginal gains for all rather than
massive gains for some. I know it’s impossible to call it right all the time, in fact getting six out
of ten over time would suit me just fine. I’ll also mitigate this weekend’s auto-flagellant
tendencies by saying that I still think “we’ve seen overbuying (copper) and overselling (gold)
that will calm and reajust”, to quote IKN392 again, but that still dosn’t help much with timing.
All that said, I am bitterly disappointed with my current reading of the market, the conditions
and quick change have caught me off-balance, I’m not doing a good job at the moment and I’d
encourage you to consider, in a sober and measured way, whether it’s worth paying me for this
service if things don’t get any better.
Back to Medellín with CNL
Just in case you don’t catch the message in ‘Stocks to Follow’ below, I’ve been invited on
another very interesting site visit and will be in Medellín Colombia for the second time in less
than a month between December 12th and 15th, this time visiting the Continental Gold (CNL.to)
Buriticá project as well as the town. The good news here is that the visit falls on a Monday to
Thursday, there will be no disruption of the normal Weekly schedule either end.
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Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Colombia Gold Symposium notes and thoughts
It seems like a long time ago, it wasn’t. Tuesday 15th and Wednesday 16th November saw my
attendance at the inaugural Colombia Gold Symposium, organized by Paul Harris of The
Colombia Gold Letter (1). The dedicated website for the conference is www.colombiagold.co
and is also on link (2) below. It was a excellent conference, two days of useful and on-topic
talks from a variety of speakers with viewpoints from all sides of the mining industry in
Colombia (and beyond), from companies working the country, to lawyers who explained inner
workings of the permitting and legal fields in Colombia, to social and community experts with
insights on the issues faced by companies on a day-to-day basis, plus a couple of speeches by
government officials who laid out the State’s view on several subjects (not least the trappy
subject of permitting). All those and more and it’s going to be plain impossible to fit two days
and the two dozen plus presentations into The IKN Weekly, so what I’m going to do is point to
some of my personal highlight talks and mainly keep ourselves on-topic for the Weekly by
highlighting more of the presentations given by the mining companies. I’m not going to draw a
line between day one and day two either, as the presentations were consistently strong from
start to finish.
The introduction speech was given by Paul Harris himself, who didn’t shirk from some of the
issues faced by Colombia’s mining industry and pointed to some of the negative factors it needs
to address. I like that, it set the scene nicely for the rest of the conference and the experts in
each field who could tackle their specialised subject and could offer potential solutions if they so
desired. He also talked about the near-closed Colombia Peace Deal (now signed and closed as
per two days ago) and the role that mining will be able to play in the new Colombia. His phrase,
“The villain of the Marxist ideology, you guys, Foreign Direct Investment”, summed up the
opportunities assuming the peace deal sticks, with more of the country’s surface area opening
up to real development. On the positives, Harris said there was no reason Colombia mining
couldn’t mirror the regionwide success story that is Colombia banking. Re. Minig he said that
though the future is for a wider Colombia, as things stand the best place to go the centre of the
nascent success story is the Antioquia region and the Middle Cauca belt, where we were sitting.
The conference keynote speech came next, delivered by Joe Mazumdar of Exploration Insights
who had obviously done a lot of homework on
the country. I was expecting a variation on his
presentation given recently in Zurich, London
and Vancouver, I was wrong because
Mazumdar packed his presentation with data
and opinion that was very Colombia-centric.
Mazumdar touched on a lot of subjects,
including relative political risk of Colombia to
other LatAm states, problems that have come
along such as AngloGold and its “First Mover
Disadvantage” (good phrase), the absolute
importance in the eyes of the world of the
FARC/Government peace deal (style beats
substance sometimes) and the way Colombia
scores well in the world league tables of doing
business in general, but its mining industry
comes way behind that image. But if there was
one takeaway from his keynote speech it was the most straightforward point of all, that first
and foremost to go mining and/or exporing you have to be in a prospective place geologically.
Political risk can change over time but rocks don’t and to quote the man, “Colombia is a
geologist’s paradise”. He also did the Bart Simpson joke, which was cool.
Then came a selection of speeches on the legal and permitting side of the Colombia mining
scene delivered by mostly Colombians and mostly in Spanish (but for those of you thinking of
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attending next years event, simultaneous Spanish/English and English/Spanish translation was
available for the full two days, an excellent bonus) and from a range of government officials
and lawyers. The government guys were plain vanilla and the lawyers were boring in that
special way that only laywers can be, but it was still a worthwhile experience to sit through
because it raised a red flag of insight on doing business in Colombia; There were exceptions of
course, but the legal brigade come across as high-handed and seem to consider themselves the
central essential of anything you do if you want to go mining in their country, screw the rocks
etc (yes, they had that “we’re doing you a favour by allowing you to invest” feel about them
too). So far so normal for an insular profession I suppose, but the bit that really concerned me
was how they’d wear hard right politics on their sleeves and seem to consider any person, town
or region that opposes mining as obviously Commie bedwetter FARC-apologists. People, if I’m
going to pay (through the nose, by the looks of their suits) for legal advice in a country I don’t
want it to come with an extra dose of bias confirmation that could get me into trouble further
down the line, I want it to be as even-handed and objective as possible.
The Red Eagle Mining (R.to) presentation was given by company COO and chief mine builder,
Bob Bell. As of today Red Eagle is Colombia’s
first real FDI-driven mining success story with
the company moving from exploration to capital
raising to build decision to first pour in less than
three years and I’ll tell you what, Bell wasn’t shy
about his company’s achievements. One thing
that stood out was the quote, “”We’re not
looking anywhere else”, R.to is going to parlay
on its expertise in Colombia and that’s a smart
thing. Oveall it was good prep material for the
site visit later on and gave insight into the
company’s attitude towards country and
stakeholders in general but I have to admit, at
the time on Tuesday I thought it was a bit too
triumphalist, it put me a little on my guard for
the Friday site visit (pride coming before falls,
etc). However it turns out that Mr. Bell has every
right to sing from the rooftops about R.to,
they’ve put together a fine machine and a real growth story. More on R.to below.
The Continental Gold and Atico presentations came and went, they were pretty generalist, but
the talk by Nick Winer of AngloGold
was a great one. When you think
AngloGold in Colombia you tend to
think La Colosa, or perhaps even
Gramalote, but Winer talked about the
Chaquiro copper porphyry discovery
previously known as Quebradona
(which is now the region play name,
Chaquiro is a third of Quebradona
district) and went into the fascinating
timeline of events that changed the
discovery from promising to world class
as, over literally years, the geol team
chased down and finally found the
high-grading core of the mineralization.
It’s now a serious sized porphyry with
604mt of resource grading 0.65%
copper, 0.32 g/t gold and silver and moly kickers. That’s 8.9Bn lbs copper and 6.1m oz gold in
grades that work. A real case study of how patience (and deep pockets) pays off in exploration.
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Past your author’s eye went CB Gold (more on that one in the Red Eagle NOBS report next
week) Cordoba Minerals (see below for the full story, the presentation by VP Exploration Chris
Grainger touched on the main points for a generalist audience), Royal Road (Hector Vargas
obviously has some wonderful and very prospective concessions in the South of Colombia,
political risk and access is still a
thorny issue there though). Then
came what was for me the surprise
package of the juniors at the
conference, Angel Gold (ANG.v)
with the talk given jointly by
company President/CEO Stella Frias
and VP Expl James Stephenson. I’m
going to save space here and leave
the thoughts for ‘Market Watching’
below, but at least here’s a shot of
VP Expl Stephenson, mike in hand,
explaining the plan at their handful
of projects.
Just two more featured talks, which
is unfair on many others because
the quality of so many presentations was high, but
space must be left for Jason Ward, Country Manager
for Australia’s SolGold (SOLG.ax) and his 25 minutes
on one of the current hotpot projects in the mining
world, the Cascabel project in Ecuador 85% owned by
SolGold (15% Cornerstone Capital (CGP.v)) and
returning massive intercepts of porphyry copper/gold
mineralization described to me as GeoPorn by many a
geologist. Ward went into some of the stats behind
the exploration to date, such as the $35m spent in just
3½ years on exploration alone and the new record
SOLG set for drill depth by a man-portable rig, they’ve
made it down 2km. But the stat that really grabs the
attention is that the current drill target and the subject
of all drilling to date is just one of 14 porphyry targets
on the wider property. Now sponsored by Newcrest
and with BHP sniffing around as well, SoldGold has a
big story to tell. Just a pity it’s in Ecuador...
The final presentation featured here was the penultimate of the whole two days and came from
Don East of Stracon (part of Graña y Montero), a Peruvian domiciled company and world leader
in many aspects of civil works, including of course mine building (they’ve recently built Red
Eagle’s San Ramón mine and Guyana Gold Fields’ Aurora mine to name two, the list goes on
and on). But Mr. East’s talk wasn’t about the nuts and bolts of mining, it was entitled “Social
License: Striving For A Win-Win” and stood out among the other talks on the social and
community aspects of the mining industry for several reasons.
• East admitted at the very start of his speech that he’s not a qualified sociologist or
suchlike (his hatful of academic qualifications are in other fields). His is the practical
view and comes from many years of observations on what works and what doesn’t
work in community relations and social licensing issues. It was richer than the normal
academia-type presentations as a result (they tend to be variations on a theme).
• As I watched East, it suddenly occurred to me that just about every other presentation
at the conference on the community/social (CSR) side of mining had concentrated on
the problems faced and what was going wrong. Mr. East’s thrust was far more positive
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and offered up solutions, not problems.
• He was clear on the main point, that the single biggest challenge faced by the mining
industry today is to get the social licence right. I agree, not just because we have a
whole bunch of examples as to how communities and regions have stopped major
mining projects in their tracks, but also because even though it’s higher up in any
company’s consideration these days the CSR issue is stil not given the importance it
deserves in corporate decisions.
• The best example of this came when he talked (and this from experience of watching
the process inside many companies for many years) on how the company timeline on
any given project will often ignore the needs and desires of the community around it. It
was one of those rare moments of insight that are so good you go “Hey, why hasn’t
anyone else said that before?”, so obvious it seems in hindsight.
• As an example, consider the typical decent mining company with a decent project on its
decent hands. Now for sure it’s going about its job in the right way so it has a good
team working CSR and keeping locals informed and engaged, but at corporate level the
timeline tends to be different because a mining company is behest to the market. To
condense the argument, consider the typical development track of a deposit from initial
drilling, to first 43-101 compliant resource, to PEA, then PFS, then FS, then construction
decision, capex raise, build-out and finally operation. That’s the type of development
track expected by the market, all in good time order, and that’s what the mining
company will try to deliver in order to remain popular with backers and keep its share
price buoyant. However, the community around your project might not (indeed often
doesn’t) work on such a strict time schedule and may need more time than our
wonderful capitalist system is willing to give to it. And so develops friction that can
move to flashpoint status where real permitting and access problems begin.
• Don East’s point, and it’s a great point, is that CSR rarely gets space inside the timeline
of a mining company plans and the truth is, if the community timeline doesn’t fit with
your PEA (cid:1) PFE (cid:1) FS(cid:1) Build (cid:1) Operation timeline than it’s not the community
timeline that’s wrong, it’s your timeline that’s wrong. Does that sound simple to you?
Yes it does to me and that’s why it’s such a great point, Mr. East has identified a blind
spot in the way miners go about developing their projects and even the most well-
meaning of companies with good records on CSR can fall down on this.
As for solutions East offered many (and if you want to know more his presentation as all others
will be on the Colombia Gold Symposium website (2) very soon, either that or get in touch with
him) but the main one is that of vision, encapsulated by his phrase “Get the community to see
the future”. That’s not as easy as it sounds, first you have to get to know them well and get
ideas about their hopes, fears etc. But once a rapport has been created, framing a project as
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part (not all, just part) of a better future for their offspring will bring a new and most valuable
stakeholder onto the mining company’s side, the very people who will then defend the company
against “the antis” of this world. This process cannot be rushed says East, but if done right it
becomes the single most powerful shield against industry detractors. Best talk of the two days.
Wrapping up the Colombia Gold Symposium
I’ve selected a few highlights, unfair on others that have slipped by without a mention. The
Colombia Gold Symposium was a pleasure to attend, well organized with
top notch facilities and plenty of people in attendance (Paul Harris told
me that he’d aimed for 100 registers, he got 200). What set it apart from
most other conferences of its type was the sheer amount of useful and
on-topic information from every angle of the industry, advice and views
from lawyers as well as miners, from government officials in the mining
ministry to risk managers on the future of the post-conflict Colombia. Not
only that, but the city of Medellín was a wonderful surprise with great
infrastructure and cultural life (including the Botero museum at which I
spend a very happy Saturday morning...that stretched into the afternoon
it was so good). It’s going to happen around the same time next year so
if you’re interested in making it in 2017, you’re bound to meet me there
and have a great and informative time. I’ll sign off by personally thanking
Paul Harris for the two days, I know how much effort he put into making
it work and it all paid off, he has a resounding success and we have a
new date on the mining conference circuit. And seriously, do the fantastic
Botero museum there, outstanding collection.
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Cordoba Minerals (CDB.v) site visit
In normal IKN site visit style, here follows a narrative of the visit to the Cordoba Minerals San
Matías project that took place on Thursday November 17th, observations and insights scattered
between 20 of the 350 or so photos I took that day (I’d love these things to be longer but it’s
not practical).
05:15am alarm call, coffee, eggs, 6am meet-up, airport and a
40 minute hop in a light aircraft for great views to the hustle
and bustle of El Pindo Airport. That’s
the main entrance. In fact it’s the only
entrance.
From there our party (and there were
plenty, all fresh from the Colombia
Gold Symposium that closed the
evening before) hopped into a fleet of
4x4s and we drove another hour and a
half, stopping along the way to note
views such as the next photo below,
the Cerro Matoso nickel mine, now 36
years old and counting and reserves
for many years to come run by
South32. It was also interesting to see
in the far distance new electiricity
infrastructure being put in by a
Chinese consortium (though I’m not
giving you that photo, it was a dot on
the horizon) which speaks well for future industrial and mining
development for the region.
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On we went, passing as we did locals going about their everyday
lives.
Until San Matías finally came into view. As CDB tells the world at
every opportunity we’re not in the Andean highlands here, this is
only a couple of hundred metres above sea level and we’re firmly
inside the Northern hemisphere tropics, too. That means green, lots
and lots of green, this is very fertile soil but we should also note that
around the San Matías property agricultural activity is minimal (the
plains to the South and East are the place to be for easy farming). It
was also hot and humid, even with the cloud cover of most of the
day. When the clouds dispersed that changed to very hot and
humid. The photo below shows the view as we did the final couple
of kilometres, the ridge being the main Alacran project target inside
the much bigger San Matías concession. We also see one of the
artisanal mines on site and the relationship between the established
community of informal miners and the company was one of the
things I was most keen to witness.
Here’s a shot of the main artisanal mine and though there’s not much to see of real workings,
it’s clear from the ground disturbance that there’s been a lot of mining going on over the years
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here.
Here’s our happy party looking up at the dirt mess above, taking in the scene and making
notes. In the middle of us all stands Chris Grainger (and stands tall, it was nice not to be the
tallest person on a South America site visit for once), VP Exploration for CDB.v doing what
geologists do best...arm waving.
In fact he was explaining about dip angles and doing a useful job of it, as the general
green/topsoil cover at Alacran and the wider San Matías property means that the parts
uncovered by artisanal operations give us a chance to appreciate the underlying geological
structures. The photo below of the right side of the main pit shows how the edge of the village
sits next to the workings. The population is established, a packed down dirt road runs through
the main housing strip, there are shops, a church, etc. As we looked up, a small group of
people, mainly wives and children of miners, looked down on us with friendly amusement while
two of the community social representatives working for CDB walked up and greeted them (and
presumably explained what all these gringos were doing on their patch that day). There’s
obviously a positive working relationship between the two sides and that’s nothing but good.
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There is a smaller grouping of houses to the left of the main pit too and here are those in the
photo below, along with the main tailings run-offs (which are a mess, CDB is doing some clean-
up work there already but it’s the type of larger problem that only gets fully fixed when a big
formal mine takes its place). But the interesting part of this shot is in the red square, that’s one
of the three drill rigs currently working Alacran (the other two had been man-carried up onto
the ridge and we didn’t visit). That photo alone is a strong endorsement of community relations
as nobody really wants a drill droning next to their sleeping quarters for days on end. VP Expl
Grainger said that the final agreement was a “yes, but get it done as quickly as possible please”
from the locals but even so, it’s the type of agreement impossible to achieve from people who
don’t want you there. CDB has done its community relations the right way, that’s clear.
We reach the main Alacran coreshack, which is a basic camp but with all the right things and
plenty of correct storage space for the core. They knew we were coming, so the employees had
laid out a couple of the representative holes for inspection (the geols in the group only
complaining that there wasn’t enough time on the tour to see it all, the rest of us happy with
the cold drinks on offer). I had a chance to chat with one of the employees (while nobody else
was watching) and can vouch for the team spirit there, the local guys are more than happy to
be working for a formal company and are particularly happy about things such as the
healthcare plans covering their families.
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The company geols take over and we get a briefing on developments and the core they’d laid
out (chosen as being representative, rather than the best on offer). That’s your author’s finger
on the sections map, pointing to the hole we were about to examine. They were thorough and
covered a lot of the exploration program via a whole bunch of maps, ready and waiting for the
purpose.
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In particular there was a lot of talk from the CDB geols (and a lot of questions from the geols in
our group) on the HPX Typhoon IP technology and survey results (HPX claims that Typhoon
runs harder/better/faster/stronger than the normal IP technology) and above we see one of the
generated maps from Typhoon (several others are available on the company website (3)).
One of the things I’d already understood clearly about CDB was that its main project target,
Alacran, was just one of several generated by the company at San Matías, but an advantage of
being on site was to get a real flavor of both the scale and the number of “real live” targets
there were, including Montiel West/Montiel East situated Northeast of Alacran, Buenos
Aires/Caño Pepo Southeast and others besides. Nine major targets in all.
So to the core, but before we do so I get to pass on a bit of hot gossip about the upcoming drill
assay results. One of the geols let slip (and another confirmed) that the most recent round of
drilling hit core with visible gold. We’ll surely hear more about this when the batch of assays are
back from the labs and the NR comes out (should be with us soon) but getting VG from a
porphyry interception is a rare thing indeed. Now for sure the objective for CDB and HPX at
Alacran is to put together a big open-pittable copper/gold deposit, it’s not after high grading
specific areas, but finding VG in a porphyry is testament to the strength of the system that
drove Alacran into existence and
is a strong positive signal for the
future.
Of the 50 or so core pics (from
previously assayed core with
known results, nothing from the
upcoming batch) I’ve chosen just
two photos. The idea here is to
show the real-deal mineralization
on offer and the first photo does
that nicely (see red box). That
metre section assayed at 0.84%
copper and 1.89 g/t gold,
nowhere near the best in the
box but the visual show was
typical.
This second shot of a different part of the same drill hole
(right) was far less pretty, but the numbers of 7% copper
and 4 g/t gold get your eyes popping out at the sheets, not
the rocks. Be in no doubt, this is a strongly mineralized
system.
The benefit of the week in Colombia was to get a two day
symposium and two site visits packed into just four days.
The downer was that time on the visits was limited and it
was soon time to move on to our next stop, the outlying
second camp set up by HPX/CDB to service the Montiel East
and Montiel West targets. This is a new camp, the main
building you see in the photo below was still under
construction in August (so says Joe Mazumdar of
Exploration Insights who was on his second visit) and
coreshack space was still under construction for the tens of
thousands of metres to come.
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We got to see core that was still under assay,
so no specific metals grades available but as
this example left shows (Mazumdar’s hand in
shot, yes folks he’s married) we’re again talking
about a strongly mineralized zone.
Again due to cover the Montiel targets are almost 100% blind, but there is a place where we
can see the state of the porphyry and that was at another, separate artisanal mine working a
few (hot and sticky) minutes’ walk from the camp. Again the relationship between company and
local miners was good enough to give a group of total strangers free access to their place of
livelihood, we like that.
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On the way over we get to walk up the rise and get a feel for just how verdant it all is. This is
looking East-Southeast and across towards Cerro Matoso in the far distance.
Here’s a shot of the artisanal pit, which is basically
exposed porpyhry with the miners extracting from the
higher grading zones. Again it’s testament to the
strength of mineralization at San Matías that informal
miners can make a long-term living by what boils down
to “processing porphyry”. This is the rock of the very
large open pit mining operation, the mineral that
normally requires economies of scale and billions of
dollars of capex. Here they’re making a living running
two or three tonnes per day through a rudimentary
diesel-driven mill.
And with that the tour started to wrap up. Back to camp
two, some lunch, load up the vehicles, back to the
airstrip and into Medellín before the local service small
airport closes its doors at 6pm. Hotel and a beer.
Observations and conclusions
I’ll say this here and I’ll repeat it in the Red Eagle (R.to)
site visit write-up as well; it’s a real luxury to be able to
get in two site visits to two separate companies in just
two days, but the obvious sacrifice is that time is limited
on both. The CDB visit was very useful and worthwhile
but by its nature only gave a taster of what the
company is doing. However, there are a handful of
things that occur after visiting, here we go with those:
I really like the way Cordoba has laid the groundwork of
strong community relations. The whole region is pro-
mining, a lot of employment and salary wealth comes from the coal and nickel mines nearby
and we were told about the time the anti-mining NGOs came to town, only to get run out by
the population who actively like the mining industry around their area. In the exact San Matías
location, locals have welcomed the company and the relationship with artisanal mining groups
is so good that they let CDB drill inside their township. That’s no small thing to witness up
close. Employees at the coreshacks told me how they used to have to carry guns around,
everywhere they went, in order to keep the local paramilitary groups in check (they tend to be
the far right illegals, rather than the more famous far left groups such as the FARC-EP or the
ELN). Yes the paramilitaries still exist in the region, but they’re now more in line with control
groups, making sure the locals are being treated correctly. And yes it’s a rudimentary and still
somewhat of a Wild West place but the atmosphere is conducive to good, serious and formal
development. In short, it fulfilled my expectations and more besides. Pass with fying colours.
San Matías is BIG. Maps and charts are good, a vision of the scale is a whole different ball
game and Friedland is obviously after not just a big fish in the clearly exciting Alacran, but a
world-class catch from the wider San Matías. We know from his escapades in places like
Mongolia and DRC that he doesn’t do things by half and his interest clearly isn’t just about
proving up a few billion pounds at Alacran. HPX is going for it here and there’s a lot to discover.
While on the visit I also picked up on some of the wider plans that HPX has. Friedland is not
only new to Colombia but new to the whole LatAm-Carib region and from what was gathered,
HPX is now getting warmer on expanding throughout the whole zone, Tijuana to Patagonia. I
have no special information on this, but connecting the dots isn’t so difficult and it’s at least
logical to note the way in which Friedland has taken over a large chunk of CDB already, it
suggests that he may have chosen his vehicle.
14

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And dovetailing with that is the way in which development has happened so far at San Matías
under the current JV agreement. We know that HPX now owns 51% of San Matías and that
goes to 65% with the eventual publication of a Pre-Feas. We know that Friedland owns a large
portion of CDB already, almost the total maximum he can before he hits his 45% standstill
agreement ceiling. Put those pieces together and if we assume the current deal goes to PFS
stage and Friedland buys every share he can, he’ll get to own 80.75% of the property.
BUT! At that point, Cordoba/HPX won’t have a PFS on the Big Fish prize, that of San Matías
(which Friedland is clearly gunning for) but only on Alacran. That’s no bad thing and I’m pretty
darned sure the Alacran PFS alone will impress the market, but we need to recall that Alacran is
only one of many targets at the concession and the Montiel East/West new camp maks it plain
as the nose on your face that the JV wants to expand and get bigger.
Does it make sense for CDB to have to start funding its own corner on 13 other targets, just
because the current deal says so? Once the PFS is filed Cordoba Minerals will have to fund its
end of future development on a pro-rata basis and I doubt that would be a problem for CDB
and there are already queues of potential investors who’d like a piece of the pie, but it would be
a pain and theoretically means Friedland starts to get diluted out of his total position, on the
CDB side at least. When you add in the raison d’etre of HPX the company, the small and highly
flexible private entity that goes around the world looking for TheNextBigThing and it would
make more sense for a new deal to happen. Then consider Friedland’s new interest in
LatAm/Carib, then his high level of control over CDB already, it all points in one direction.
I think CDB is going to become something a lot bigger than just San Matías and it wouldn’t
surprise me to hear at some time in the middle-distance future about a deal that spins the
whole CDB/HPX caboodle into CDB, has Friedland as a majority controller and then sets about
building the next regionwide arm of his empire. As things stand the deal between CDB and HPX
is a good one, it’s worked very well but it’s not difficult to see how in time it could become
restrictive to both sides. It’s not a foregone conclusion, it’s simply a train of logical thought from
your author, but it’s all I need to affirm my holding in CDB at this time because if there’s even a
chance that, by luck or othewise, I’m in on the ground floor of the next big Robert Friedland
company, I’m going to hold on to my shares for dear life. So let the vagaries of the day-to-day
and week-over-week market do what they will to this stock, Cordoba Minerals is a long-term
keeper and could turn into a ticket to a much bigger and more lucrative game. So good, in fact,
that I’m considering swapping out Starcore and making this a Top Pick on the list.
Red Eagle Mining (R.to) site visit
The last long narrative of IKN393 (I’m boring you now, aren’t I?). Up, shower, meet Paul Harris
for a coffee, turn up at the meet point at 07:58am for the 8am bus to the relief of tour
organizer Patrick Balit, VP Corp Dev of Red Eagle Mining (R.to) and
as it turns out, a thoroughly decent and nice guy who treated us all
very well. This time it was a bus all the way as the R.to San Ramón
mine isn’t so far away from the city, it took around 2½ hours and no
need for the scenery shots this time, done them in the first
travelogue.
On arrival we were immediately sat down in the conference room and
company COO Bob Bell (right) took us and his team by the scruff of
the neck. Mr. Bell comes with a no-nonsense reputation and a long
track record of successful minebuilding and operations and my stars
it shows. To say I was impressed with him is an understatement,
even with company Chairman and CEO Ian Slater on the tour there
was no doubt at all who was in charge at the mine. There then
followed the most efficient of corporate presentations, starting with
Community Social Responsibility (CSR) (or as Bell prefers
“Community Social Commitments” as responsibility is just too wishy-washy for his taste) and
15

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the team that gave a comprehensive overview
of what they do. As soon as they’d finished we
were onto the next area of the operation, the
Environmental Management presentation
given by area chief Raul Mejia, this slide below
one of the many in his presentation that
explains what R.to has done to mitigate its
environmental footprint:
Bam-bam, all
the info, ten
minutes and slick, these guys were under Bell’s orders to be
sharp and informative. Next came the Mine Department and
Alejandro
Galvez (a
Peruvian and
one of the
few foreign
nationals
working at
the mine). A
lot of emphasis on workplace safety too,
exemplified by this slide (right) on the use of
the Neil George Five Point Safety System,
which was invented by the eponymous
George in Canada in the 1940’s but isn’t so
easy to find in use in South America (R.to is
probably the only mine in Colombia using it).
As Colombia has one of the worst mine
fatality rates in the world (behind China) and
the worst by far in South America, it’s good to see it in operation.
The presentations kept coming thick and fast, next was an overview of the processing facility by
section boss Gordon Hubbard that was a useful
primer before we saw the real thing. As well as this
overview slide of the plant, we were walked
through the flowchart and pointed to some of the
major details, such as the leaching tanks system (7
tanks, 72 hours per tank) and the trade-off that the
finer grind they use brings to recoveries (they get it
down to a very fine 15 microns that bumps up
recoveries by around 4% according to the model
and so far at least, in the ramping-up phase results
are matching theory), but the main takeaway here
was to note that there was nothing particularly
custom or special about the RD.to San Ramon
facility; this is a reasonably standard technology
facility that’s seen build costs kept down because it
can use off-the-peg equipment.
The final show in this quickfire and efficient induction was from VP Exploration Jeff Toohey
(pictured below) who talked us through what we know about the orebody to date, its
exploration potential and, most interesting of all, the district exploration potential on the larger
concession already owned by RD.to. We know that the current reserve at San Ramon is
405,000 oz proven and probable (P+P) at an average grade of 5.2g/t gold. That’s what the
16

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current mine plan and eight year mine life is based upon, but it soon became very clear just
how much exploration potential there is at the mine. Toohey
explained that although constrained to the West, the San Ramon
orebody is open to the East along strike and as they’ve very
recently managed to secure more concession ground from
AngloGold, that strike could continue much further East than on
his oveview map. San Ramon is also open at depth and once the
underground mining is fully underway and levels development
happens, in normal mine plan methods, they’ll start testing at
depth to see how many more levels they can add. Separately the
company has generated two prospective targets nearby to the
West, called Rojo and Cañada Rica. These are the ones RD.to is
looking to in order to bump up total tonnages and potentially
start moving plant procesing rates up from the current installed
1,000tpd, through 1,400tpd (without much change to hardware)
and eventually to a potential doubling of capacity to 2,000tpd. As
things are, RD.to is limited on tonnage capacity by the logistics of
the San Ramon mine, it’s not possible to feed 2,000tpd from just
one place. But if and when they have two operations the
doubling of plant capacity is said to be straightforward with a
modest price tag of around U$22m ($12m for new bolt-on equipment for the plant, $10m to
open up a new mine face to the West). This last section of the introduction presentation by
Toohey was the one that most appealed. It’s clear R.to has a lot of resource upside potential
and on several fronts, too. Added in the talk of positive grade reconciliation at the current
working faces and I understood why the company is now very confident about leaving the
presently normally quoted 50,000 oz per year production rate far behind, and more quickly than
the market expects.
It took less than an hour to get a full overview of all aspects of the mine operation, efficient
and impressive stuff, but it was time to go see the real thing. They put us on a bus, trundled us
down and then over a hill, took us to a strategic viewpoint and here below is just one of the
photos I took. They even managed to program it for when the sun was shining:
17

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There are outlying, non-essential spots in the facility which are still under construction (e.g. see
bottom right of photo), but these are
details. Esthetically it looks a picture,
all freshly painted in colour-code and
shiny metal. To the left is the tailings
process facility, centre the grizzly that
takes the feed from the mine for its
first crush, centre right the main
processing facilty and the backdrop of
the bolted embankment (47° angle
with 30m bolts that have
strengthened the wall from a 1.1 ratio
to a 1.8 that will withstand any major
seismic event) adds to the visual
impression (as well as helping to hide
the facility from neighbours, never a bad thing).
The one thing that doesn’t fit into the picture above
gets a showing in this second shot, the main
tailings facility and dam wall. RD.to is using a dry
stack tailings system with water content taken
down to 14% or 15% when running at full tilt
(when we were there they were commissioning the
second tailings processor and it was running for
only its second day, with moisture levels already
down to 17%).
Time to go down and take a close look. Workplace
practices wonk that I am, I liked the emphasis on
safety at literally every turn (this photo right one of
18

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a dozen I could bore you with). We then gathered at the bottom of the big machine, listened to
main man Bell tell us to behave correctly (we all did)...
...and climbed up to the top of the big machine. Although still in commissioning phase
everything at the processing facility was working and in operation, we got the guided tour of
vat-to-vat by Gordon Hubbard, we pointed at the INCA cyanide destruction circuit, we gawked
at the motors going round and round. We were children on a big fairground ride, it was fun.
19

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In fact for logistical reasons we did the tour just about back to front, starting at the leach vats,
moving back along the conveyor system and finally ending up underground watching the rock
get taken from the stopes. The only jink was the separate tailing processing facility and all the
time we were under the watchful eye of the mine’s Alpha Male, Mr. Robert Bell.
Before making our way underground we watched as the tailing press did its thing...
It was time for the underground tour and, as usual, it was much easier to experience the U/G
ops than it was to take a decent photo. Here we see mine superintendent Paul Brown (poached
from Continental Gold because he got
bored waiting for Buriticá to start...some
people are just born to mine) telling us
where we were going and what we’d see.
There was plenty of activity and although
tonnages aren’t yet up to the projected
stage one run rate or 1,000tpd, I as told
that ramp-up was going better than
planned for this early stage and the mine
is on course to declare commercial
production in 1q17 and almost certainly
sooner rather than later in the quarter (I
pushed hard and got a “we’re aiming for
January”, but if they don’t make it that
quickly none of us should worry).
The U/G boss hog Brown then took us right up to the face of one of the working stopes and
20

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here’s the gold-bearing ore (photo left). It doesn’t look like much in fact, light grey,
crumbly/friable and with a fairly high moisture content. All the same there’s gold in there. To
the right is the only photo of about 35 I took of the mechanized extraction operations going
ahead (it really isn’t easy taking a photo underground with all that brightness contrast...well,
not for a photography dumbo such as I, at least).
And that just about wrapped up the tour. Bus
back to the gate office, lunch served and we
all chatted happily for a while as the rain,
which had held off all day, finally hit. We got
lucky with the weather too. And to cap it all
off, on getting back from the mine we got off
the bus and were greeted with this sight, a
rainbow that dipped down right to the mine facility we’d just visited. Jokes about Leprechauns
with pots of gold ensued and I asked CEO Ian Slater just how much it had cost him to lay on
that kind of special visual effect for his guests.
21

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On bus, hit road, hit Friday Medellín traffic, crawl into city centre. Ten onto a bar where Red
Eagle invited us all to a couple of glasses of red wine and pizza. Nothing else happened. At all.
Observations and conclusions
It’s a real luxury to be able to get in two site visits to two separate companies in just two days,
but the obvious sacrifice is that time is limited on both. There, told you I’d say it again, but I
was genuinely impressed as to the amount of show we got through on the RD.to tour. The
presentations were slick and quick and although we did have to hurry a little once at the facility,
we saw everything there was to see (apart from the gold room, can’t blame them for that) and
had the chance to point a camera at the important sights.
To wrap up quickly with general impressions, the overriding one of R.to at San Ramón is that of
professionals at work; This is a serious mine, built to the highest standards (by Graña y
Montero/Stracon of Peru) and although not the biggest operation it deserves its status as a
showpiece for the formal mining industry in Colombia. Red Eagle has done an outstanding job
of work to get the project from blueprints to first gold pour in less than three years, no matter
whether the share price was or is expensive (we’ll go into that next week). And Bob Bell better
be on a good bonus structure, I don’t want him leaving anytime soon.
Next week, a NOBS report on Red Eagle
After all the narrative today it’s too much to start whacking you over the head with numbers,
they’re just going to get lost. What’s more, as noted in the mailer last week the state of this
market means that there really isn’t any rush to buy into a new position. So take a breather and
get ready for a full and detailed NOBS report on Red Eagle Mining (R.to) next weekend in which
I lay out just why I got my initial assessment of the company wrong earlier in the year and how
I now think it’s a cheap stock with a strong longer-term future in store. As for a price target,
I’ve done a lot of modelling on the stock and think it’s now pretty close. As long as you allow
for any minor tweaks I might make between now and next weekend (which include of course
finding big dumbo mistakes if I’ve made any) I’ll tell you now that at U$1,200/oz gold I’m
slating a 12 month price target of C$1.15 and at U$1,300/oz gold it’s as high as C$1.50 (gets
leverage from the debt on the balance sheet). Needless to say, I’m not a buyer until the NOBS
report is published. Until next weekend.
Stocks to Follow
Our timescale is two weeks and not one. During that time, just two of the open positions on the
‘Stocks to Follow’ list have returned gains (WDO.to, CNL.to) and another has remained
unchanged (RRI.v). All others are negative and that’s not good, but if we consider the awful
state of market sentiment towards our favoured sub-sector at least it’s based in the macro. In
fact there are only three positions that are really irksome and two of those are the silver plays
Avino (ASM down 29.5%) and Excellon (EXN.to, 14.6%), the latter hit by the drop in its
underlying metal the much the same way as nearly every other silver play and the former
getting that and a double-whammy of an optically-awful bought deal placement.
The other big loser was far more of a concern to me, as seeing a Top Pick such as Starcore fail
to pick up even the slightest hint of a floor or a defensive bid was blood-chilling. The last time I
felt such a hole in the pit of my stomach was this time last year when B2Gold was in complete
freefall and I nearly made the gross error of selling into the bottom of that one (and no joke, I
really was close).
We currently have 15 open positions on the ‘Stocks to Follow’ list, our self-imposed maximum
number at any given time. Eight stocks are in the green and seven are in the red. Same count
as a fortnight ago.
22

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company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
B2Gold BTO.to STR buy C$2.11 12-sep-14 C$3.15 49.3% tgt $5.30 IKN375, good Q3
Regulus Res REG.v hold C$0.64 06-apr-15 C$1.30 103.1% LT exploreco top pick
Starcore Intl SAM.to STR buy C$0.61 10-jan-15 C$0.455 -25.4% $1.04 tgt, very poor Nov'16
Long positions (in current order of preference)
Sandstorm Gold SAND STR buy U$3.80 17-apr-16 U$3.67 -3.4% $7 tgt IKN378, cheap
Tinka Res TK.v buy C$0.195 19-apr-16 C$0.205 5.1% Under-radar Zn, annoying
Wesdome Gold WDO.to selling C$1.72 22-may-16 C$2.48 44.2% Will sell at $2.88
Cordoba Min. CDB.v buy C$0.73 15-sep-16 C$0.77 2.7% $1.50 tgt added IKN392
Excellon Res EXN.to buy C$1.71 09-oct-16 C$1.35 -21.1% Hit by Ag sell-off, $3.13 tgt
Atico Mining ATY.v buy C$0.51 24-jul-16 C$0.80 56.9% New target $1.36, Cu play
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v buy C$0.32 02-sep-16 C$0.25 -21.9% 75c tgt, added IKN388
Avino G & S ASM selling U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.35 -32.5% Abandon ship! Bad bot deal
Riverside Res RRI.v buy C$0.39 27-jun-16 C$0.46 17.9% Added IKN380, 60c tgt
Continental Gold CNL.to buy C$2.68 22-may-16 C$3.67 36.9% permit 4q16/1q17, $4.80 tgt
Lara Expl. LRA.v hold C$1.15 08-apr-12 C$1.03 -10.4% solid biz model
Focus Ventures FCV.v spec buy C$0.23 01-jul-12 C$0.06 -73.9% refi news good
Short positions
None at present
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 closed positions in appendices below
Now for some notes on current basket stocks:
Avino Silver & Gold (ASM) (ASM.v): Selling. Sometimes you just get caught out but my
stars, when it happens it’s annoying. I need a bit more space to explain fully the reasoning
behind this 180° turn and sell decision so please see the segment in ‘Market Watching’ below
for more. But yes, it’s about that optically awful bought deal announcement that came from
ASM on Monday evening. My only silver lining (geddit?) is that I didn’t get to buy my second
piece of ASM before it happened, so the percentage loss on this failed trade will be ugly but the
financial hit isn’t so bad.
Excellon Silver (EXN.to): EXN has been whacked hard by the silver sell-off and though my
timing has been pathetic in moving gingerly into a couple of silver plays just before the swoon,
23

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it’s at least understandable given the metal selling. EXN did get good news on its legal battle
recently (4) with a small portion of locals when the judges ruled that an effective neutral result,
something that suits EXN very well.
We await the start of its production upgrde on the back of the newly installed pumping system,
that should be kicking in right now and we should get the first concrete results of that in the
end 4q16 production numbers of early January (unless of course EXN toots its own horn before
then).
Wesdome Gold (WDO.to): Still selling at $2.88. This one has held up better than most, in
fact. We got the latest round of drilling results from Kiena deep and without being knockout
numbers, there was more than enough to confirm that WDO has hit upon a very promising
discovery at its old mine and there’s alue to be added by drilling it out and eventually moving it
towards production. Aside from that, WDO continues to make me regret that I didn’t sell when
it hit target earlier this month.
Atico Mining (ATY.v): We check out the 3q16 financials in ‘Market Watching’ below, even
though they’re now 11 days old (5) and I’m a bit late to them. The news that came with the
financials that ATY had re-negotiated its debt position with Trafigura was mildly positive as well
(they didn’t give much away, they get more financial flexibility and Trafi only really wants the
off-take anyway). This week also saw ATY announce (6) they’re on the track of a new massive
sulphide lens at El Roble (the geological theory of VMS deposits such as this one states that
there should be quite a few in the same vicinity) so that was reasonably positive stuff too. All of
which makes the fact that this profitable and well-run copper producer hasn’t benefitted in the
last couple of weeks from the surge in copper companies all the more frustrating.
Tinka Resources (TK.v): If you’ve have told me, way back when zinc spot price was
U$0.85/lb and Tinka was a 20c to 22c stock, that with Zn over U$1.20/lb this company’s share
price would be unchanged I would have either laughed in your face or, if I believed you, sold
my TK position immediately. With the placement now closed successfully and permits in hand to
drill there’s no reason for this to still be lagging but here we are, watching mediocrities such as
Trevali fly high while I’m stuck in here. I’ve done you all a disservice by preferring this Zn play
over just about any other.
Starcore (SAM.to): Still no news on the quarterly production numbers at SAM.to, which will
become a little disconcerting if we don’t get the NR in the week to come. What’s far more
disconcerting is the way this stock has been dumped in merciless fashion by the market, it can’t
seem to catch a bid to save its life and what’s more, the dumpage has been on the thinnest of
volumes. At least that fact (no big sellers) helps allay any potential worries about the upcoming
production report. Still, this type of market action sits in the pit of my stomach, it’s a physical
nausea on occasion because I know it shines a light on one of my weakest points as an
investor, that of the Value Trap, a phrase used re. SAM.to just two editions ago in IKN391,
November 6th. Back then SAM.to was a 65c stock too....my stars I hate this.
So is SAM.to a buy at these levels? Well yes, in fact it is if your brave enough but I’m feeling
rather more cowardly than usual this weekend and have enough of these shares already.
Fundamentally-speaking it’s in good financial shape, the mine will benefit from the cheapening
of the Mexican Peso to the US Dollar, the booting forward of debt repayment to the point when
it’s covered by the proceeds of the real estate deal helps matters, with steel, coking coal and
copper having made moves we can even hold out hope for a pop in moly. The main and
obvious downside is its lack of liquidity, only fools such as I seem to care about this type of
second tier stock (again, the Value Trap problem) and when things go dry, the type of beating
SAM has taken these last three weeks isn’t a rarity, unfortunately.
Riverside Resources (RRI.v): RRI has shown resistance and strength at this news 50c-or-
about level, which is no bad thing. Cheaper than LRA on a prospect generator like-for-like level
and with exploration activity and drilling on its properties, we should get decent newsflow soon.
24

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Lara Exploration (LRA.v): LRA hasn’t managed to bounce back from the idiot Byron King’s
dumpage call on the stock three weeks ago. Not yet anyway. No reason to abandon this stock
at a low price just because a knownothing sells it.
Continental Gold (CNL.to): Up 40c from two weeks ago, CNL is the only stock to have
registered a big gain (+12.2%) since the last edition of the Weekly. I got to have long talks
with a specific members of the wider CNL team while in Colombia and it was more than
interesting to get their views. I can say that on some subjects they think as I do, i.e. the key
environmental permit will be awarded either in December this year or in 1q17 (i.e. on the
current timeline track) and they think the stock will re-rate nicely on that news. Please also see
the Ross Beaty rumour around CNL (and EOM), in ‘Market Watching’ below.
Also, as mentioned in today’s intro I’ve been invited on the site visit set for December 12th to
15th, with the main visit day to Buriticá on December 13th (which may mean I get chance to
sneak back to the Botero Museum on the afternoon of the 14th...we’ll see). The trip will be led
by Ari Sussman and from what I’ve picked up, Ari wants to be friends with me. Oh that’s nice.
Rye Patch Gold (RPM.v): Of all the names on the list, this is the one that says “I’m really
cheap here”, as we’re on the cusp of new production at Florida Canyon and the numbers show
the thing will work even at this gold price. On the other hand, it’s a stock that might come in for
tax loss selling in the next two to three weeks (some are going to be easier targets than other
this year). Really easy to hold.
Sandstorm Gold (SAND): Actually, come to think of it that comment on RPM applies almost
as much here, too. SAND under $4 just looks so cheap.
B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG): I’m pretty depressed about the whole market scene these last two
weeks, if it weren’t for the solidity of Top Pick and largest position B2Gold I’d be desperate.
Down just two cents since IKN392, B2 has done a great job of resistance. Also, check out the
BNN interview that The Clive gave to Andrew Bell (7), with plenty of soothing words on
Masbate and good feel future for Fekola.
The Copper Basket
After forty-seven weeks of 2016, The Copper Basket shows a 118.90% gain to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/16 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 HudBay Min. HBM.to 5.31 235.23 2234.69 9.50 78.9%
2 Ivanhoe Mines IVN.to 0.61 778.96 1908.45 2.45 301.6%
3 Reservoir Min. RMC.v 4.08 48.69 449.41 9.23 126.2%
4 Capstone Min. CS.to 0.44 382.04 401.14 1.05 138.6%
5 NGEx Resources NGQ.to 0.65 205.06 256.33 1.25 92.3%
6 Western Copper WRN.to 0.38 94.19 111.14 1.18 210.5%
7 Copper Mtn CUM.to 0.445 118.8 103.36 0.87 95.5%
8 Atico Mining ATY.v 0.28 97.59 77.10 0.79 182.1%
9 Trilogy Metals TMQ.to 0.395 104.33 73.03 0.70 77.2%
10 Cordoba Min. CDB.v 0.16 86.86 65.15 0.75 368.8%
11 Nevada Copper NCU.to 0.66 80.5 64.40 0.80 21.2%
12 Copper Fox CUU.v 0.125 417.64 56.38 0.135 8.0%
13 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.205 173.61 55.56 0.32 56.1%
14 Hot Chili Ltd HCH.ax 0.09 445.723 17.83 0.040 -55.6%
15 Revelo Res. RVL.v 0.055 128.486 12.85 0.100 81.8%
NB: HCH.ax priced in AUD$, rest CAD$ Portfolio avg 118.90%
25

,
Over the two weeks of the sample, our copper basket rose by a further 11.84% and the
rebound was confirmed to the taste of anyone.
The producer stocks, the leveraged plays (to The Copper Basket 2016, weekly evolution
120%
debt) and the highly liquid traders vehicles were
100%
the main beneficiaries, if you put those angles
80%
together it explains the big jumps in Copper
60%
Mountain (CUM.to up 27.9%), Amerigo (ARG.to
40%
up 23.1%), HudBay (HBM.to up 22.6%) and
20%
Capstone (CS.to up 19.3%). All of which shows
how out of touch your author is with the new 0%
dynamics of this market. -20%
What we saw in copper pit trading action was a
quick consolidation, then a move late last week
to threaten the recent spike high top. This daily chart is
the most eye-catching timescale and shows the way
copper has come alive with a market now factoring in
big infrastructure demand off the Trump victory. That
and the driver of the new upmove, Chinese retail
speculators. Here’s Reuters on (8) that...
Chinese investors whose rush into copper hauled it
to 16-month highs this month say infrastructure
spending and government reforms will keep the
metal well supported this year and into 2017.
Copper surged more than 11 percent in a week in
early November - its biggest weekly jump in six years
- fueled partly by new investment from small
investors, according to brokers and traders at last
week's Cesco copper conference in Shanghai.
...and if you get the words “speculative casino bubble”
floating past your eyes on reading that kind of thing
you are not alone, kind reader.
Now for the regular weekly copper warehouse inventory bullets, though this time we take two
weeks ago as our benchmark:
• Overall world copper inventory levels rose over our two week period by a small amount,
just 1,095 metric tonnes (mt) (+0.2%) added to finish at 449,023mt. However as you’ll
see below, inside the big number there was some significant shifts inside the
warehousing systems.
• SHFE stocks in Shanghai rose sharply over out two week sample period, up 31,512mt
(+28.0%) to finish at 144,063mt and move away from the 100k band in strong style.
However, there’s less of a bearish signal here than meets the eye as the next bullet will
show (and there’s little doubt that the world trading pits have easily ignored inventory
levels these last weeks).
• Over at the LME, stocks dropped over the two weeks by 33,650mt (-12.4%) finish the
week at 237,200mt. That makes a full month of copper stocks seemingly making arb
moves away from the LME and into the SHFE system, one gain largely cancelling out
the other loss.
• Comex stocks continue to rise above it all and add tonnages. Over out two wek,s they
moved up 3,233mt (+4.9%) to close this Friday at 68,855mt.
Here below the regular Shanghai-only chart, showing that sharp reversal from the same place it
bounced in 2015. Last year the warehouse then went on a arb bonanza and sucked the LME
26
dr3naj ht71 ts13 ht41 ht82 ht31 ht72 ht01 ht42 ht8 dn22 ht5nuj ht91 dr3luj ht71 ts13 ht41 ht82 ht11 ht52 ht9 dr32 ht6von ht72
source: IKN calcs

,
stocks dry, so the question now arising is whether, like Minera IRL, it’s deja vu all over again.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014-2016
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
27
ht5naj ht61 ht03 ht11 dn22 dr3gua ht41 ht62 ht7ced ht81 ts1ram ht21 ht42 ht5luj ht61 ht72 ht8 ht02 ts13 ht31 ht42 ht5nuJ ht71 ht82 ht9 ht72
Mt Cu
source: Cochilco
Now for notes on a couple of the basket component stocks:
Capstone Mining (CS.to), HudBay (HBM.to) (HBM), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to),
Copper Mountain (CUM.to), Nevada Copper (NCU.to), Copper Fox (CUU.v): To prove
that I’m a bad analyst, these are the ones noted in the last edition two weeks ago and I warned
you off them all (well, in fact I said that they aren’t the type of vehicles for me). Since then
CUM.to is up 27.9%, ARG is up 23.1%, HBM is up 22.6%, CS is up 19.3%, NCU.to is up 5.3%
and only Copper Fox is a small loser, down 1c.
Saying that “I don’t like these stocks” and trotting out pre-packaged subjective reasons that
have all the logic in the world but fail to point the IKN Weekly readership to easy gains is a total
fail on my part. I apologise.
The Low Cost Producer Basket
After 47 weeks of 2016, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 59.15% to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/16 Shares out Mkt Cap (Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Barrick ABX 7.38 1165.33 17.15 14.72 99.5%
2 Newmont NEM 17.98 530.595 16.83 31.71 76.4%
3 Goldcorp GG 11.56 832.381 10.90 13.09 13.2%
4 Franco Nevada FNV 45.75 178.01 10.08 56.64 23.8%
5 Agnico Eagle AEM 26.28 223.475 9.11 40.77 55.1%
6 Ang/Ashanti AU 7.10 405.27 4.41 10.89 53.4%
7 Buenaventura BVN 4.28 254.19 2.80 11.01 157.2%
8 Detour Gold DGC.to 14.41 174.06 2.86 16.42 13.9%
9 Sibanye Gold SBGL 6.09 228.71 1.99 8.70 42.9%
10 New Gold NGD 2.32 512.8 1.86 3.62 56.0%
Prices in U$/NYSE tickers, except DGC.to (CAD$) Portfolio avg 59.15%
The waterfall selling seems to be coming to an end in the Tier One stocks at least, with GG,
ABX, FNV all down less than 1% and Newmont even managing to return a two week gain of
12c (the only one of our ten to do so). Further down the market cap size things were rougher
(BVN down 8.4% over two weeks, SBGL down 7.8% over two weeks) and another one that still
hasn’t managed to get any traction is Detour Gold (DGC.to down 4.3% over to weeks), the
stock that was hardest hit before and during the rough stuff (mainly due to its own guidance
downgrades).
As for the GDX benchmark, all the gain from having “The South Africans” in the list early in the
year is melting faster than the Greenland permafrost*. We’re now less than 10% ahead, the

,
worst it’s been since January!
The Low Cost Producer Basket: Weekly performance
200% and comparative to GDX control
180%
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
Regional politics
Will return next week
Market Watching
Atico Mining 3q16 financials and target price update
As noted in ‘Stocks to Follow’ above, on Wednesday November 16th Atico Mining reported its
3q16 financials (9), as well as telling the world it had come to a refi deal with Trafigura that
would make re-payment of its debt easier to handle (something that’s mildly positive, but not a
massive big deal in my opinion). We take a look at the numbers, note the big differences
between our forecasts and the reality, then add the new higher copper price into our model and
come up with the revised target price I’ve
been promising for the last four weeks.
First let’s point out that the IKN Weekly
estimates for 3q16 missed by a mile. For just
one example we’d previously estimated sales
of 7.5m lbs copper at an average net received
price of U$2.05/lb, then sales of 4,500 oz gold
at an average net received price of U$600.
The reality was different, as copper sales were
4.978mlbs at an average net received price of
U$2.06/lb and gold sales came in at 3,371 at a
U$536 average.
So what went wrong? Why were my sales
numbers so much higher than the ATY
results? The answer is found in the
inventories data. Here right is the estimates
for inventory levels I used in my previous
pieces on ATY and as you can see, the assumption was that the backlog in sales
(which showed up right here) would get
moved out during 3q16 and things would get
back to normal.
That chart right was then, this chart below is now:
28
dr3naj ht71 ts13 ht41 ht82 ht31 ht72 ht01 ht42 ht8 dn22 ht5nuj ht91 dr3luj ht71 ts13 ht41 ht82 ht11 ht52 ht9 dr32 ht6von
Low Cost Basket: Percentage difference between
basket and GDX control, 2016
5%
0% basket
gdx control -5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
source: Google, IKN calcs -35%
-40%
ht01 ht42 ht7bef ts12 ht6 ht02 dr3rpa ht71 s1yam ht51 ht92 ht21 ht62 ht01 ht42 ht7gua ts12 t4peS ht81 dn2tco ht61 ht03 ht31
source: ikn calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq data
ATY: Copper production and sales, per quarter
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 tse61q4 tse71q1
Mlbs Cu
payable copper Mlbs
copper sold Mlbs
ATY.v: Inventory
10
9
8
2.5
7
6
5 1.9 2.3 1.6
4 1.2 2.2
3 1.8 2.5 6.2 2.5
1 2 0 1 . . 9 8 3.5 3.6 3.6 4.4 1 0 . . 7 8 2.6 1 0 . . 7 9 3.0 1.6 2.0
0
31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 61q1 61q2 tse61q3
$m
other
Metals Conc
source: company filings

,
ATY.v: Inventory
10
9
8
7 2.5 2.9
6
5 1.9 2.3 1.6
4 1.2 2.2
3 1.8 2.5 6.2 5.7 2.5
1 2 1 0 . . 8 9 3.5 3.6 3.6 4.4 0 1 . . 8 7 2.6 0 1 . . 9 7 3.0 1.6 2.0
0
29
31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 tse61q4
$m
other
Metals Conc
source: company filings
As you can see, the 3q16 metals concentrates inventory level hardly budged at all, dropping
just $0.436m to finish at $5.739m, rather than my $2.0m assumption. That’s because, as
explained by ATY in its filings, the knock-on effects of the national transport strike were still
stopping the excess from being shipped and sold. When it comes to revenues my previous
guesstimate of $18.1m was therefore way out too (though at least I got within a penny of the
right copper price). Instead ATY in 3q16 booked revenues of $11.489m and as that lower
number flowed through the rest of the results sheet, we ended up with just a small mine
operating income of $1.874m instead of the bonanza $7.2 I’d assumed by selling the excess.
ATY.v: Operations overview
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 tse61q4 tse71q1
$m
revenues total cost of sales Income from mine ops
source: ATY filings, IKN ests
Which in turn saw BTL numbers and net profits come in flat:
ATY.v: Earnings
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 tse61q4 tse71q1
$m
Income from mine ops
pre-tax earnings
net earnings
source: ATY filings, IKN ests
But as you can also see from those above charts, all is far from lost. In fact luck has played into
the hands of ATY because instead of selling its excess backlog inventory at $2.05/lb in 3q16, it
can now sell it at $2.50/lb in 4q16 thanks to the sudden spring in the copper market. And in
fact ATY stated in both its NR and MD&A that the transport bottleneck was now clearing and
things are back to normal. Therefore, instead of 3q16 I’m now assuming the bumper quarter
comes this time, 4q16 and ajustments are made through the model for that. After that, I’ve
now added in projections for 1q17 because one of the things we need to do today is adjust the
price target on ATY (below). No point in basing things on the one-off 4q16, we need to get an

,
idea of what ATY can achieve under the new
copper price and at constant production, so ATY.v: Income from Mine Operations
10
that’s where the 1q17 estimates come in. To 9
underscore that, here’s the mine op income data 8 7
separated into its own chart. Thanks to the 6
5
better sales from the backlog and better copper
4
prices, we’re now expecting a bumper $9.3m this 3
quarter, but of more long-term interest is the 2
1
strong $5.5m in 1q17 that assumes 4.5m lbs 0
copper sold at $2.60/lb (the rest made up by the -1
-2
gold sales). That’s the kind of earning power we
can base reasonable new target prices upon.
Over at the balance sheet, things are fine. Rather
than add in the fixed assets and liabilities, these charts concentrate on currents and the liquidity
position at ATY because that’s always been the issue (whether they can pay back Trafi etc).
This cash and inventories chart shows how we expect inventories to drop and cash to rise this
quarter coming, then the working capital position is expected to really improve and get plenty
of breathing space next quarter and in those to come, thanks to the refi deal that pushes back
some of the repayments.
So rather than lull you gently to sleep with another dozen charts I’m going to get to the heart
of the matter.
• We know 3q16 sales were lower than expected, therefore profits were too. But that just
means 4q16 sales will be out-sized and we get our bumper quarter this time.
• We know the copper price is much better and we know ATY is running at its new
throughput rate nicely.
• Our previous target price was all about a lower copper price. Now we’re over U$2.60/lb
the time has come to adjust our thinking and aim higher.
The main job is to use the previous template but adjust for the surge in the copper price, plus
the newly bulish atmosphere around the copper
mining sector. Of course there have to be
guesses thrown in and as already seen, I’m
going to assume a steady state quarter of 1q17
that produces 4.5m lbs payable copper and sells
them all at U$2.60/lb. Tough to know from
where we are today, but at least that discounts
the boost ATY will get from the 4q16 extra sales
and gives us an idea of what it can do on a
sustainable level. And here right is the chart
generated from the part of the spreadsheet that
most interests me on earnings:
30
41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 tse61q4 tse71q1
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
ATY.v: Cash & inventory
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 tse61q4
7 ATY.v: Working Capital per qtr
$m
6
inventory 5
cash 4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
source: ATY filings, IKN ests
41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 tse61q4
source company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
0.10 ATY.v: Op.Earnings per share, per qtr
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00
-0.01 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 tse61q4 tse71q1
source: company filings, IKN ests

,
Operating earnings should finally get their bumper quarter in Q4 as the excess inventory is sold,
but the 5.7c/share projected for 1q17 under the above assumptions is strong in itself. It’s a
straight line forward operating earnings of 22.8c/annum and from there, the job is to guess a
reasonable new multiple to earnings that ATY can get from the market. Rather than use higher
multiples on net earnings, the Trafigura repayments mean that bottom lines may get skewed
from time to time so I’m going to plump for a lower 6X ratio on mine operating earnings. Under
a newly bullish market scene for copper names, I think that’s very gettable for ATY.
With that as our new benchmark, the new target price moves to C$1.36 (previously
90c), representing a 70% upside from this weekend’s 80c.
Atico Mining’s 3q16 didn’t sparkle, but under the circumstances that’s not surprising. With its
new repayment schedule with lenders Trafigura and the much better copper prices we’re now
enjoying, any doubts of a liquidity problem at the company should now be put to bed even by
the most cynical of observers. ATY is in great shape for 2017 and I can see it going a lot higher
once the wider market cottons on to that fact.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Why Angel Gold (ANG.v)
In the Sunday evening cover letter to defer this edition of The IKN Weekly last week, one of the
small snippets at the bottom mentioned that I was impressed with Angel Gold (ANG.v) during
the Colombia Gold Symposium and think it’s a potential vehicle for those of you out there who
like them high risk (and I mean that folks, it’s getting repeated here for a good reason). Here
are the exact words from last week’s mail:
“Those of you who are more risk-tolerant should take a look at Angel Gold
(ANG.v), the surprise package of the conference. I'll talk more about this one
next weekend, too.”
Just a quick line, I tried to keep it low-key and not cause any sort of kerfuffle. And the result?
Oh dear. People, that’s too much too soon, calm your jets and hear me out.
Share structure is important here: First we need to talk about the share structure at ANG.
At present here’s the count to two significant figures:
• Shares out: 49.29m
• Warrants: 20.31m
• Options: 4.89m
• Fully Diluted: 74.49m
One thing to like about the share structure is that around 27% of shares out are held by
31

,
management and insiders. The main holders are CEO Stella Frias and director Thomas Wharton.
That’s good skin in the game.
At ANG.v’s Friday closing price of 11.5c, that gives the company a current market cap of
CAD$5.67m. In other words this is a tinycap and if you look on the books it doesn’t have much
cash to play with either (as at end June just under $0.5m in cash and working cap at zero), but
ANG is going to change things if the contents of its October 12th news release are anything to
go by (10). Here’s how that starts:
Vancouver, British Columbia – Angel Gold Corp. (the “Company”) (TSX-V:ANG) is
pleased to announce a non-brokered private placement raising gross proceeds of up to
$2,500,000 through the issuance of up to 31,250,000 units at a price of $0.08 per unit.
Those 8c units give you a share plus a half warrant at a 16c strike (two year shelf life). Yes,
ANG is raising via a placement and from what I was told at the Colombia Gold Symposium by
CEO Frias, there’s still room for new takers of the placement. But if we assume for a moment
that the placement fully fills, the new pro-forma share count would look like this:
• Pro-forma shares out: 80.54m
• Pro-forma warrants: 35.94m
• Options: 4.89m
• Pro-forma fully Diluted: 121.37m
The pro-forma market cap would be 9.26m which is a jump higher from today of course but
ANG would have the type of cash for a year or 18 months worth of exploration on board and be
able to do things. Swings and roundabouts.
Going back to the current share count and the 20.31m warrants: They are priced at either 10c
or 16c, so there’s a weight of overhang there that may stop the stock price from moving higher
quickly. Added to that, there is an acceleration clause on a nearly 7.6m tranche of the warrants
whch says that if the shares close at above 12c for five consecutive days, they’re called in 20
days afterwards. That’s another reason why 12c may become a tough line to break for the
stock, unless it gets a boost from news or from outside market factors and if you look at the
2016 year-to-date price chart of ANG.v, that certainly seems to be the case:
However there is a bright side to all this: If ANG can break through these levels of resistance,
first 12c and then eventually 16c being the most obvious, it really could start to move higher
and get into a virtuous circle situation. Overhangs aren’t easy to bust, but they do bust on
occasion and when they do those people who were willing to risk at the lower prices find
themselves sitting on a big percentage win in a short time. Double-edged swords, oh yes.
Projects are important here, too: So much for the corporate structure at ANG, the meat on
32

,
the plate is what they have by way of assets. The company is focused on Colombia and has
thre separate asset packages in the country, namely Heliconia, El Pino West and El Porvenir. Of
the three, ANG has made it abundantly clear that its flagship is the El Porvenir project which
you can read more about on this link (11) if you so desire but the TL:DR on El Porvenir is that
it’s a big, 59.5km2 package under 100% acquirement agreement from Colombia’s biggest
formal mining company, Mineros S.A. that’s located just 5km from the Gran Colombia Gold
(GCM.to) Segovia operations in the town of that name. Because El Porvenir is big, ANG splits it
up into four different exploration zones that offer different attractions. I’m not going into all
that here today, rather I encourage you to check out that link and perhaps download the 43-
101 compliant technical report published on the project, available on that very same page.
What I will do in this overview, however, is paste out a small segment of the script:
“El Porvenir is at an early exploration stage and Angel Gold is working diligently to
understand the styles and controls of mineralization and ultimately to advance the
economic potential of the property.”
Be in no doubt, ladies and gentlemen, ANG at El Porvenir is an early stage proposition and as
explained both by company literature and by VP Exploration James Stephenson during his
presentation and The Colombia Gold Symposium, there are still a couple of stages to go before
ANG starts its projected 2,000m exploratory drill program on what it thinks are its most exciting
targets.
And people are important here, too: After the ANG presentation, I sat down with CEO
Stella Frias and we talked first about ANG and their projects, but the conversation then ranged
off into her thoughts about Segovia, how to treat local communities correctly and her past
history in the mining business which is extensive, she was part of the successes at KM88 in
Venezuela (when that country was still playable) and the Ventana Gold mega-success when it
was sold to Eike Batista for a veritabl hatful of money. I was most impressed about her
community relations experience and it’s clear she goes about the business of exploration in the
right way. The type of chat that turns a possible cheap buy into a probable one.
The bottom line to Angel Gold (ANG.v): First and foremost it must be repeated and
repeated very clearly: This is a trade idea for those of you with a high risk tolerance. Period.
What we have in ANG is an opportunity that I think stacks up like this:
• Good people running a tightly run company
• A very cheap share price
• A large land package in Colombia, a place they know how to work efficiently
• Inside that land package, some very prospective looking targets
However it’s not the perfect stock either:
• Potential headwind from warrant overhang
• Cash at very low levels and the current placement is needed to get them moving
• Still early stage exploration
The way I see the opportunity here, above all, is as a play on a newly bullish gold market. If
(and I know what kind of “IF” I’m serving up here) gold starts moving up again and the sector
begins to catch bids, ANG with its large land holding is the type of very cheap stock that can
start going up in multiples, especially if it can crack its 12c and 16c warrants ceilings.
And finally, because of the current financing situation at ANG this isn’t an opportunity confined
to the smaller pennycrapper player either. The IKN Weekly caters to a whole range of investors
and pockets and in some cases, I’ll get flak from what we can call “the deeper-pocketed among
you” because I’ll start going on about some or other company that only needs 200k shares to
trade at 10c for it to start flying, there’s no way in for larger risk cash. Well folks, this time
there is. The terms of the current private placement (8c per unit compared with the 11.5c finish
33

,
Friday, half warrant to boot) look very reasonable, therefore if you’re an accredited investor
looking to bolt on some risk at a low point in the market, ANG.v may fit your bill. The
placement’s been open for a month and a bit so that probably means there’s a decent chunk
still available. I’ll leave the rest up to you, I’m not their salesman.
Minera IRL: Last chance to vote tomorrow (probably)
As those of you who follow the story have probably seen, I’ve been quite (ahem...cough) active
on the subject of Minera IRL in the last few days on the open blog. There’s nothing much to
add here to the position or editorial line, I hope it’s been made plain by now, so no big piece to
waste space in this already over-long Weekly. I will say just two things:
1) Assuming there is no adjournment (see 2), tomorrow Monday 28th is your last chance to vote
if you haven’t done so (or altered your vote) aleady. Here’s the proxy make-up sheet from the
main post of last week (8) as a reminder, it would be greatly appreciated if you voted this way
and helped save the company from the clutches of Derrick Weyrauch and company.
2) The board of directors of Minera IRL are meeting tomorrow Monday to decide whether to
postpone the AGM. If they do, they will have a maximum of two weeks to re-schedule (it must
take place within one calendar year of the last AGM or EGM and if memory serves, that is
December 14th latest date). If they decide to postpone it means only one thing, that they know
they’re losing the AGM vote and will desperately try to save their hides with some sort of Hail
Mary play in the two extra weeks, potentially releasing the now overdue drilling results from
Ollachea and spin-marketing with those, potentially trying to convince Rio Tinto to vote actively,
potentially attacking yours truly personally. Maybe even because they want to get an extra
month’s salary and find reasons to draw a few extra fat consultancy fees before getting booted
out. So at this point I recognize that there’s a chance that the AGM is delayed for a couple of
weeks, we’ll find out tomorrow. If it happens, just add it onto the pile of self-serving and
corporately expensive decisions this board has made, but it would also be the strongest signal
possible that they are losing and we are winning.
34

,
Eco Oro and Continental Gold Ross Beaty rumour
No, they’re not in merger or buyout talks. Word reaches this desk that the big buyer of both
Eco Oro shares and Continental Gold warrants on Friday was Ross Beaty. We’re unlikely to hear
about the CNL warrants’ new owner unless he decides to broadcast the fact (which would mean
he’s finished buying of course), but the EOM.to purchase is big enough to come under
regulatory rules and if that’s confirmed in the next few days it would be the third time Beaty
has stepped into the California/Vetas/Paramo fray. He won bigtime by betting on Ventana Gold
and then selling to Eike Batista, he then lost big (but not as big as the Ventana win) by betting
on the fortunes of CB Gold, only to see that one wither and die in the gold bear market.
For me the most interesting part of the rumour is the CNL purchase of course, bring
shareholder there and a visitor to the site soon. I’m definitely not going to get involved with the
sordid company that is Eco Oro. Do with this information what you will.
Why I’m selling Avino Silver & Gold (ASM) (ASM.v)
No me excuso de nada, y sobre todo no excuso este lenguaje,
es la hora del Chacal, de los chacales y de sus obedientes:
los mando a todos a la reputa madre que los parió
y digo lo que vivo y lo que siento y lo que sufro y lo que espero.
Julio Cortázar, Policrítica en la hora de los chacales, 1971
Excuse the double negative, but the underlying reason of the decision to sell this stock is not
unconnected to my current opinion of the board of directors of Minera IRL. Having just run the
numbers on ASM and its 3q16 results in the last edition, IKN392, I was happy enough about the
way this second-string silver position was developing and had planned to add a few shares to
my small opener position once back from the travels. As a reminder, here’s how I finished off
the ASM piece in IKMN392:
As things stand today it’s a small position and though my cash reserves are by no
means unlimited, I have earmarked a few shekels to make this foot in the door slightly
larger (leg in the door?). With this quarter, Avino Silver & Gold (ASM) (ASM.v) has
earned its place on the IKN Weekly ‘Stocks to Follow’ list and though I’m unlikely to
get the chance to add any next week (definitely don’t like opening online accounts on
hotel wi-fi) I will add modestly once travels are done (and hopefully that nice Mr.
Market gives me the chance to average down when I do, too). I’m not putting a price
target on this stock today though, that can wait and as its price movements are highly
leveraged to movements in the price of silver, putting a target today is a bit like
predicting bullion price. A solid little silver producer, good quarter.
So what has changed? The answer is the news ASM brought to market on Monday November
21st (12) which started this way:
VANCOUVER , Nov. 21, 2016 /CNW/ - Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (ASM: TSX.V,
ASM: NYSE–MKT: ASM; "Avino" or the "Company") announces it has entered into an
underwriting agreement dated November 21, 2016 (the "Underwriting Agreement") with
Cantor Fitzgerald Canada Corporation, as sole bookrunner, and Rodman & Renshaw,
a unit of H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC, as lead manager, and certain co-managers
(collectively, the "Underwriters"), to purchase, on a bought deal basis, 6,370,000 units
of the Company (the "Units") at the price of US$1.57 per Unit (the "Issue Price") for
aggregate gross proceeds of approximately US$10 million (the "Offering") in Canada
and the United States of America.
In the bought deal, one unit is a share plus a half warrant with a $2.00 strike and a three year
life. It’s due to close tomorrow Monday November 28th. ASM says the money is earmarked for
development at its Avino mine, the Bralorne development property and for the mining
company’s favourite catch-all, “general working capital purposes”. And it’s the worst bought
deal I’ve seen in a long time, I fail to see the logic in raising this cash at such a discounted price
and to compound the misery, ASM has decided to run this at a moment when the silver market
was experiencing a trough of weakness. The result of the announcement was predictability
35

,
itself...
...and not only do we note that the share price dived like a gannet after mackerel on Tuesday
morning to way under the U$1.57 nominal price of the deal (though the half warrant is worth
something I suppose) but also note the weakness on Monday. Somebody knew and was acting
on the information, that’s not good at all.
So why the sudden volte face at The IKN Weekly and why dump the stock just one edition after
saying that I would add at lower prices (and lucky for me, I didn’t get the chance to do that
before the deal was announced)? The overriding reason is that I simply do not understand why
ASM’s management would want to raise U$10m in cash right now, aside from the poor market
timing (which could just be unlucky I suppose) they are not in any sort of cash straits as shown
very clearly by the 3q16 anal ysis in IKN392. I’ll just stick one of the charts used then here as a
reminder, cash & inventory, but working cap at over $21m is also in fine shape and the
company is operating profitably too. Bottom line is that they don’t need the money, so why
raise at a heavy discount?
ASM: Cash & inventory
25
20
15
10
5
0
Next let’s consider the evolution of the share count. Up to end 3q16 I was okay about its
position but assuming this bought deal closes without the over-allotment, it would put the new
share count at ASM to 51.6m. That’s 14.3m shares more than at the end of 2015 and would
mean ASM has increased its share count by 38.3% in the course of 2016 (and if the over-
allotment gets taken up those stats become even worse). That’s too much, that smells of
paper-printer modus operandi and sets a precedent for the future.
ASM has no NEED for a new cash injection, so why run a placement and what’s more, why a
bought deal? The only logical explanation I can come to is that ASM tipped its hat to the old
Vancouver adage, “When they offer you money take it” and the deal syndicate came forward
with an offer that they agreed to. In other words, cash greed and at this point in the cycle,
that’s not in the interests of current shareholders. You only have to look at that price chart
36
41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3
$m 55 ASM: Shares Out
50
cash 45
inventory 40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Source: ATY filings
31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 tse61q4
source: company filings, est 4q16
serahs
fo
snoillim

,
again to work that out.
For me, this is an occasion when I’ve just made the mistake of reading the company’s financial
position, finding value and acting upon it, only to be screwed by (another) bunch of self-servers
at management level. I do not understand this deal and when I don’t understand something I
prefer not to get involved. It may turn out that I’m selling into the bottom (in fact it’s even
probable) and the percentage hit for a position taken only recently is no fun at all, but due to
the fact that 1) in real cash terms it’s not that much, I’m only losing on my foot-in-the-door
purchase and 2) there’s no way I can place any trust in this management team in the future
after this kind of trick, I’m gong to cauterize, sell and walk away.
Finally, you the reader of The IKN Weekly may be annoyed with me for doing this sudden 180°
turn on ASM. For example, in IKN392 I stated clearly that I’d be happy if I had the chance to
buy more at a lower price and that’s just what this is. Therefore I am obliged to remind people
that the way The IKN Weekly works is what I’ve always called the least worst method, it’s
“what I am doing with my money”. That’s all, I’ve always stated that it’s not the perfect solution
and although I fully believe it to be the best and most transparent way of going about things, it
does have its weaknesses and they show up at times like these. I make no apology for
changing my mind, I do not trade your money, you are welcome to take my opinions into
account when making your trade decisions, you’re welcome to ignore them, you’re welcome to
unsubscribe at any point and stop sending me your own hard-earned money. This publication is
not and never will be one of those soft-soap hand-holding touchy-feely things that is all the love
and support all of the time. This is capitalism.
Conclusion
IKN393 is done, we end with bullet points:
• The Colombia trip was excellent and a real learning experience on many levels.
Cordoba Minerals (CDB.v) seems to be transforming itself into something larger and
more important, Red Eagle (R.to) has put together a top class mining operation and to
cap it all, the mining world has a new regular conference to consider in 2017, as The
Colombia Gold Symposium will have to find a bigger hall next year. Paul Harris is a real
star and anyone wanting to know how the country ticks should subscribe to his letter,
he really know his adoptive country’s mining scene back to front.
• Atico Mining (ATY.v) hasn’t moved much yet on the back of this latest copper price
impulse, but it will. Set fair for 2017.
• Saying that, I am really annoyed about the poor way I’ve called the market recently,
particularly in November where I’ve just read all the tea leaves badly. Add in the bad
stock picks in the right zones (things like TK snatch defeat from the jaws of victory)
plus a bit of unluck in Avino (which gets a cheery goodbye wave this week) and it’s all a
bit of a downer.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Regulus (REG.v), B2Gold
(BTG) (BTO.to) and Starcore Intl (SAM.to). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen. Namaste.
Mark
37

,
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) http://incakolanews.blogspot.pe/2016/09/ikn-recommends-colombia-gold-letter.html
(2) www.colombiagold.co
(3) http://www.cordobaminerals.com/s/San_Matias.asp?ReportID=612036&_Type=San-Matias&_Title=Maps
(4) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/excellon-announces-resolution-action-ejido-143000911.html
(5) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/atico-reports-consolidated-financial-results-212607926.html
(6) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/atico-mining-discovers-massive-sulfide-134500893.html
(7) http://incakolanews.blogspot.pe/2016/11/the-clive-does-bnn.html
(8) http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-cesco-funds-idUSKBN13G0B6
(9) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/atico-reports-consolidated-financial-results-211148020.html
(10) http://www.angelgoldcorp.com/2016/10/12/angel-gold-announces-private-placement-financing-2/
(11) http://www.angelgoldcorp.com/projects/el-porvenir-project/
(12) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/avino-announces-bought-deal-offering-213900302.html
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
38

,
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2014
Closed in 2014 closed close price
Fortuna Silver FVI.to jan'14 C$2.80 23-dec-13 C$3.19 13.9% small ST trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to jan'14 C$2.06 07-jun-13 C$2.30 11.7% trading position finally closed
Network Expl. NET.v feb'14 C$0.01 22-jul-12 C$0.005 -50.0% position closed, did nothing
Tahoe Resources TAHO feb'14 U$13.10 08-apr-13 U$21.72 -65.8% short closed due to reality
Darwin Res DAR.v mar'14 C$0.10 14-jul-12 C$0.045 -55.0% tiny risk play dropped
B2Gold BTO.to mar'14 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.35 9.1% closed to free up capital
Pretium Res PVG mar'14 U$5.38 22-nov-13 U$6.50 -20.8% short closed as port longer
Gold Res Corp GORO may'14 U$5.07 26-jan-14 U$4.12 16.7% took profit
Bear Creek Min BCM.v may'14 C$1.63 23-mar-14 C$2.05 25.8% Took profit, sm near-term win
Eco Oro Min. EOM.to aug'14 C$0.48 22-sep-13 C$0.26 -45.8% sold small loser to make room
True Gold TGM.v sep'14 C$0.395 02-feb-14 C$0.41 3.8% M&A won't happen, sold
Santacruz Silver SCZ.v sep'14 C$1.04 26-jan-14 C$0.86 -17.3% silver/M&A spec, rel. small
Timmins Gold TGD nov'14 U$1.38 09-apr-14 U$0.99 -28.3% failed trade, sell, raise cash
Kinross Gold KGC nov'14 U$2.90 20-oct-14 U$2.15 -25.9% V small trade, didn't work, chau
Salazar Res SRL.v hold C$0.28 02-mar-14 C$0.145 -48.2% lost China sponsor
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2013
Closed in 2013 closed close price
USA Graphite USGT feb'13 U$0.93 08-jan-13 U$0.17 81.7% short tgt made/trade closed
Lachlan Star LSA.to feb'13 C$1.50 30-sep-12 C$0.95 -36.7% sold to reduce port risk
United Silver USC.to mar'13 C$0.21 28-oct-12 C$0.095 -54.8% small Ag sector trade, failed
Aurcana Corp AUN.v apr'13 C$1.07 11-nov-12 C$0.55 -48.6% closed on poor YE results
Gold Res Corp GORO apr'13 U$14.11 25-jan-13 U$9.38 33.5% short tgt made/trade closed
Marlin Gold MLN.v apr'13 C$0.075 10-feb-13 C$0.065 -13.3% closed trade
Bear Creek BCM.v may'13 C$2.58 01-apr-13 C$2.40 -7.0% near-term, time ran out
Lupaka Gold LPK.to may'13 C$1.12 23-oct-11 C$0.32 -71.4% towel thrown in
Tahoe Resources TAHO may'13 U$18.62 08-apr-13 U$14.70 21.1% took profit on ST short
OceanaGold OGC.to jun'13 C$3.03 16-sep-12 C$1.18 -61.1% sold on gold drop
IMPACT Silver IPT.v jun'13 C$1.14 13-jan-13 C$0.62 -45.6% sold on silver drop
Duran Ventures DRV.v jun'13 C$0.045 10-may-13 C$0.025 -44.4% ST trade never worked
Plata Latina PLA.v jun'13 C$0.79 10-apr-12 C$0.13 -83.5% closed
Bellhaven BHV.v jun'13 C$0.065 03-jun-13 C$0.12 84.6% closed ST trade
B2Gold BTO.to aug'13 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.44 12.1% sold 1/2 to raise cash
Colossus Min. CSI.to aug'13 C$0.72 24-jul-13 C$0.79 9.7% closed thru nerves on future
Pretium Res PVG.to aug'13 C$8.20 11-jun-13 C$10.14 23.7% closed to raise cash
Bear Creek BCM.v sep'13 C$2.06 30-may-13 C$2.20 6.8% sold on pol risk decision
MAG Silver MVG oct'13 U$7.00 12-sep-13 U$5.62 19.6% near-term short
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'13 U$9.52 03-may-13 U$4.98 47.7% short tgt made, covered
AQM Copper AQM.v oct'13 C$0.31 16-oct-11 C$0.125 -59.7% closed failed trade
First Majestic AG nov'13 U$11.51 07-nov-13 U$10.50 8.8% v near term short, closed
Fortuna Silver FSM nov'13 U$4.00 07-nov-13 U$3.68 8.0% v near term short, closed
Primero PPP nov'13 U$5.70 07-nov-13 U$5.75 -0.9% v near term short, closed
Starcore Intl SAM.to nov'13 C$0.235 08-sep-13 C$0.17 -27.7% ST trade didn't work, sm loss
B2Gold BTO.to dec'13 C$2.22 28-nov-12 C$2.16 -2.7% closed ST trade to raise cash
39

,
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2012
Closed in 2012 closed close PPS
Soltoro SOL.v jan'12 C$0.87 07-nov-11 C$0.94 8.0% cash moved to BCM.v
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to feb'12 C$0.84 13-oct-10 C$0.98 16.7% trade closed on ELG.v offer
Minefinders MFN feb'12 U$11.68 17-nov-11 U$14.80 26.7% target made, trade closed
Iron Creek IRN.v mar'12 C$0.58 26-sep-10 C$0.31 -46.6% time up on small bad trade
U.S. Silver USA.to apr'12 C$2.18 15-mar-12 C$1.86 -14.7% ST trade no good, cut loss
Augusta Res. AZC.to may'12 C$3.10 29-jan-12 C$2.07 -33.2% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Bellhaven BHV.v may'12 C$0.50 22-sep-10 C$0.28 -44.0% new mgmt not impressive
Zincore Metals ZNC.to may'12 C$0.325 29-jul-11 C$0.17 -47.7% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Soltoro SOL.v may'12 C$0.70 18-mar-11 C$0.41 -41.4% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
U.S. Silver USA.to aug'12 C$1.78 27-jul-12 C$1.36 -23.6% fail ST trade close pre split
Estrella Gold EST.v aug'12 C$0.91 27-mar-11 C$0.14 -84.6% Closed on port realignment
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'12 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.32 397.2% sell call $6.17/ Mar25
Strait Minerals SRD.v oct'12 C$0.125 09-dec-11 C$0.12 -4.0% closing coverage til FY13
Sunward Res SWD.to oct'12 C$1.47 13-mar-11 C$1.21 -17.7% sold, took loss
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'12 U$21.47 09-sep-12 U$17.40 19.0% Short trade closed
Yellowhead Min. YMI.to nov'12 C$1.00 01-apr-12 C$0.63 -37.0% sold, took loss
Primero Mining PPP nov'12 U$7.26 07-oct-12 U$6.73 7.3% Short trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v nov'12 C$3.38 07-nov-11 C$3.72 10.1% Took small profit
Vena Resources VEM.to dec'12 C$0.70 31-may-09 C$0.18 -74.3% Failed trade (caps F)
Galway Res GWY.v dec'12 C$2.19 24-nov-12 C$2.30 5.0% closed good ST arb trade
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2011
Closed in 2011 closed close PPS
Sunward Res SWD.v jan'11 C$1.05 21-nov-10 C$1.63 55.2% target made, trade closed
Serengeti Res SIR.v mar'11 C$0.245 05-dec-10 C$0.285 16.3% sold pre-tgt, ST trade fail
Fronteer Gold FRG apr'11 U$2.37 03-may-09 U$15.24 543.0% buyout, trade closed
Minefinders MFN apr'11 U$9.09 07-nov-10 U$16.89 85.8% target made, trade closed
Metalline Min. MMG may'11 U$1.04 26-jan-11 U$0.89 -14.4% exit, resource disappointed
Peregrine Met PGM.to jul'11 C$0.87 06-mar-11 C$2.60 198.9% buyout offer, closed
Dynasty Metals DMM.to jul'11 C$4.20 03-may-09 C$2.85 -32.1% Sold. Fail. Move on.
Aura Silver AUU.v aug'11 C$0.22 13-oct-10 C$0.16 -36.4% Bad pick. Take loss
U.S. Silver USA.v aug'11 C$0.52 26-jan-11 C$0.71 36.5% closed to make room
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'11 C$2.80 12-may-11 C$4.27 52.5% target made, trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v sep'11 C$3.80 27-may-11 C$4.17 9.7% macro sell call victim
Minefinders MFN sep'11 U$14.70 10-aug-11 U$15.15 3.1% macro sell call victim
Great Panther GPR.to sep'11 C$3.03 22-aug-11 C$2.64 -12.9% macro sell call victim
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'11 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.36 400.9% sold 20%, macro sell call
Focus Ventures FCV.v nov'11 C$0.40 20-apr-10 C$0.20 -50.0% cut losses, bad trade
Regulus Res. REG.v dec'11 C$1.17 14-aug-11 C$0.52 -55.6% cut on news of poor 43-101
2009 and 2010 closed positions in appendices below
40

,
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2010
Closed in 2010 closed close PPS
B2Gold Corp BTO.to Jan'10 C$0.88 08-nov-09 C$1.49 68.2% target made, trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v Jan'10 C$0.18 23-aug-09 C$0.40 122.2% target made, trade closed
MAG Silver MVG mar'10 U$5.60 23-nov-09 U$7.28 30.0% closed in pdac week
Riverside Res RRI.v mar'10 C$0.435 20-sep-09 C$0.60 37.9% closed in pdac week
Amarillo Gold AGC.v mar'10 C$0.81 31-may-09 C$0.70 -13.6% closed in pdac week
B2Gold Corp BTO.to apr'10 C$1.24 18-feb-10 C$1.50 21.0% target made, trade closed
Lumina Copper LCC.v apr'10 C$0.84 14-jun-09 C$1.55 51.2% total position now sold
Troy Resources TRY.to may'10 C$1.10 03-may-09 C$2.25 104.5% sold on negative results
AuEx Ventures XAU.to may'10 C$2.51 24-may-09 C$3.38 34.7% trade closed
Nevada Copper NCU.to jun'10 C$3.27 14-mar-10 C$2.03 -37.9% need to lower Cu exposure
Carpathian Gold CPN.to jun'10 C$0.39 14-mar-10 C$0.35 -10.3% too exposed to cap raising
Amerix PM Corp APM.v jun'10 C$0.065 08-nov-09 C$0.05 -23.1% victim of macro bear
Antares Minerals ANM.v jun'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$2.10 47.9% sold half
Vena Resources VEM.to jun'10 C$0.37 31-may-09 C$0.23 -37.8% sold half
Minera Andes MAI.to sep'10 C$0.75 28-jul-10 C$0.95 26.7% ST trade closed
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to sep'10 C$0.52 01-aug-10 C$0.75 44.2% target made, trade closed
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'10 C$1.45 25-may-10 C$2.01 34.5% target made, trade closed
Blue Sky Uran BSK.v oct'10 C$0.41 19-may-10 C$0.22 -46.3% v small v bad trade closed
Dia Bras Expl DIB.v oct'10 C$0.14 30-aug-09 C$0.35 150.0% target made, trade closed
S. Amer. Silver SAC.to nov'10 C$1.38 24-oct-10 C$1.60 -15.9% loss on short, small fail
Ventana Gold VEN.to nov'10 C$7.92 27-jun-10 C$13.51 70.6% trade closed on buyout
Lumina Copper LCC.v nov'10 C$1.42 11-aug-10 C$3.65 157.0% trade closed
Antares Minerals ANM.v dec'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$8.40 491.5% trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.v dec'10 C$0.69 23-mar-10 C$2.16 213.0% trade closed
Coro Mining COP.to dec'10 C$0.585 03-oct-10 C$1.24 112.0% target made, trade closed
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2009
Closed positions closed closing PPS
Cardero Res CDY/CDU.to May'09 U$1.20 03-May-09 U$0.87 -27.5% sold on negative news
Eastmain Res. ER.to May'09 C$1.04 06-May-09 C$1.315 26.4% trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v May'09 C$0.165 03-May-09 C$0.235 42.4% trade closed
Latin Amer Min. LAT.v May'09 C$0.12 03-May-09 C$0.158 29.2% trade closed
Aquiline Res. AQI.to July'09 C$2.03 16-Jun-09 C$1.68 -17.2% took loss, bad timing
Chariot Resources CHD.to Aug'09 C$0.20 12-Jul-09 C$0.415 107.5% trade closed
Castle Gold CSG.v Sep'09 C$0.64 02-Aug-09 C$0.60 -6.3% ST trade didn't work out
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to Sep'09 C$2.30 12-May-09 C$4.50 95.7% profit taken
Los Andes Copper LA.v Sep'09 C$0.09 21-Jun-09 C$0.09 0% trade closed
Pediment Gold PEZ.to Oct'09 C$0.80 09-Aug-09 C$1.00 25.0% trade closed
Minera Andes MAI.to Oct'09 C$0.68 03-May-09 C$0.71 4.4% too much bad news
Dynasty Metals DMM.to Nov'09 C$4.18 03-May-09 C$6.01 43.8% half sold
Rusoro Mining RML.v Nov'09 C$0.55 03-May-09 C$0.57 3.6% underperformed
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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