IKN #358Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 358, March 20th 2016
Contents
This Week: In today’s issue, Watching the wheels, Taking myself literally and confirming a
positive trend.
Fundamental Analysis: B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG) reports its quarter and funds Fekola.
Stocks to Follow: Overview, Nevada Sunrise (NEV.v), B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to), Focus Ventures
(FCV.v), Starcore International (SAM.to).
Copper Basket: Overview, Reservoir Minerals (RMC.v), Hudbay Minerals (HBM.to) (HBM),
Nevada Copper (NCU.to).
Low Cost Producer Basket: Overview.
Regional Politics: Regional Risk Review next week, Peru’s farcical election chapter 85,
Argentina: The bond holdouts deal passes a key hurdle.
Market Watching: Starcore International (SAM.to) 2q16 financial results, Yamana (AUY)
(YRI.to) and Brio Gold; Waiting for Godot, Minera IRL (IRL.to) (MIRL.L): News here “soon”,
Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) (FSM) misses, Silver Range Resources (SNG.v): Cheap stock with an
interesting new direction.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In today’s issue
• B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG) wows the market with its Fekola financing deal and pleases it
with a decent set of financials.
• I’m just too chicken to short HudBay (HBM) right now, but the temptation is now
strong. Copper looks fundamentally weak and if the US Dollar rallies even a little from
the Yellen Sellin’ (apologies, very poor effort there) the stock could go South quickly.
The thing that’s holding me back is knowing just when the turning point comes.
• In other news, I’m still not buying, sitting on the cash pile, still plan to buy cheap(er)
things once gold retraces a bit. Signs of that happening now, but I’m fully aware of my
own bias confirmation foibles and prefer to wait for the data, not hope for the best.
• From out of absolutely nowhere, Silver Range Resources (SNG.v) looks interesting. A
very high risk spec play to bring to your attention.
Watching the wheels
I'm just sitting here doing time
I'm just sitting here watching the wheels go round and round
I really love to watch them roll
John Lennon, 1980
The IKN house position on the very near-term future of the price of gold hasn’t changed; I
think we’re going to see a drop as March draws to a close (and I give myself “early April”
1

leeway on the timing of the call). There
was enough evidence of a struggling gold
price last week, a fatigued bull, with even
the big pop on Fed Wednesday not
reaching the highs of the previous week.
And due to all that, I’m still not biting at
new equity positions, still with my cash on
the sidelines, still waiting for the cheap
prices to appear. Watching the wheels go
round and round, what could possibly go
wrong? ☺
Well, one thing that did go wrong with my
scenario last week was the dollar’s
reaction to the FOMC announcement. I
thought we’d see up, it went down. The way in which the
Fed jawboned away from the hawkish “four rises in 2016”
and went more dovish on us was not surprise, the dollar was
but once you dial out it doesn’t seem to have moved that
much after all and as the week drew to a close, the
Greenback started a quiet but clear rise.
With the broad markets ripping higher, the dollar may
become the one to buy again.
Taking myself literally and confirming a positive trend
In IKN354 dated February 21st (i.e. a month ago), the intro
piece “The Juniors Are Running” was about just why we keep
our eye on the bigboy mining companies via the “Low Cost
Producer Basket” when the focus and objective of The IKN Weekly is the smaller-cap end of the
market, junior producers and explorecos. The prognostics were good at that point, here’s the
second half of that piece again as a reminder:
“...what seems to be happening is that money is indeed rotating out of the
entry level mining stocks that have given them strong gains in a short time
and is now looking for new alpha in (what the market considers to be) riskier
companies further down the mining food chain. That little mouthful can be
summed up with an example, “out of GG, into BTO”.
This is healthy, this is good, this is
what we, the junior speculator, want
to see in a market that’s coming
back to life after years in the
hinterland.”
And to take my off-the-cuff example of
B2Gold against Goldcorp literally, here’s a
chart that runs from that date today, GLD
included as a reference point. Yup for sure
I’m out-size happy about the specific
example of BTO (and for obvious reasons),
but this pattern has shown up in plenty of
other senior-vs-junior (or mid-cap) pairings in the same period, so neither do I claim stock
picking genius. The point I’m making here today in IKN358 is that the developing sector trend
spotted in IKN354 has been confirmed in unmistakable style. This continues to be healthy and
good for the stocks we most care about on these pages.
2

Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG) reports its quarter and funds Fekola
After the close on Wednesday March 16th BTO reported its 4q15 and year-end financials (1) and
that’s the essence of what we’re going to examine today. That and the Fekola financing deal.
It goes without saying that Top Pick B2Gold (BTO) gets a lot of attention on these pages,
especially in 2016 thanks to the bizarre way it traded in January and then the rocket-like
recovery we’ve enjoyed in February and March. Here’s a reminder of the most recent coverage:
• We took a good look at BTO on the back of its 4q15 production results and 2016
guidance in IKN348 and IKN349 back in January. At that time I was thoroughly jacked
off with my biggest position stock, mainly for missing on its production numbers when
they assured they wouldn’t as late as November 2015, but also because of the
relentless selling we were witnessing in the stock (mainly via the US ticker and we now
know somebody at Van Eck must be feeling very very stupid, assuming they haven’t
been fired already). I was strongly considering dropping its reco down from Top Pick
and lightening the large core position.
• We then updated in IKN353 dated February 14th and that was the day I changed my
mind, saw the macro improvement was signalling good things for BTO and changed
back to “gonna hold, it stays Top Pick”. That turned out to be the right decision.
(NB: the above comments do not apply to the wholly separate and successful separate near-
term trade I ran on the US ticker BTG during this period. I underscore that I’m very happy
about the way that one turned out, even though I sold it at U$1.30 and we’re now at U$1.62).
I therefore aim you towards those editions for more background, as today’s isn’t going to be a
full nooks-and-crannies anal ysis on the company. What we need to do today, on the back of
the events of last week that saw a double-dose of material news for BTO, are the following:
1) Update on 2016 production guidance and forecast on cash flows
2) Check out how the 4q15 financials came in
3) Consider how the Fekola financing deal changes matters
4) Revise our price target on the back of the new interest in BTO shares
Unsurprisingly, number four of that list is the most important. Yes it’s been good to be right
about holding onto BTO through January and
then upping the sentiment in February back to
where it was before, but past history makes us
no money in the future. Also, as this
comparative chart of BTG versus the precious
metals miners’ ETF (GDX) shows, the excellent
price performance we’ve enjoyed from our Top
Pick in the last few weeks hasn’t made it into a
2016 sector out-performer, all this effort in
March has only got it back to the sector
average (so far).
So there are things to consider and decide
which means legwork first, starting with a quick
re-cap of the production numbers for 2016 and beyond because there are some small changes.
3

Revising 2016 production outlook and 2017/2018 sales forecasts
With new information at hand, there are two things that need changing. One is minor about the
2016 production model IKN is now running for BTO. The other affects things more and is about
2017 and beyond.
First the 2016 model and in IKN349 we ran a chart like this one below, which showed our
previous assumptions for 2016 (based on guidance from 2015 which was out-dated) and the
new ones after reading the NR of that week. Today we “update the update” after considering
the contents of the financials, the
year-end MD&A and especially the
Oz Au BTO: Latest changes in 2016 production guidance
Conference Call on Thursday (which 600
wasn’t the most enlightening of call,
500
but provided an extra snippet of
165 180
useful information here and there and 400 otjikoto
was ultimately a useful way of masbate
spending one of my Thursday hours). 300 180 limon 180
200 libertad
As you can probably make out, the 55 55
100
only change is a positive one, as I 130 130
now believe that my Masbate forecast 0
of 165k oz in 2016 was too was then is now
conservative and they should make source: IKN ests, BTO ests
180k there. The others stay as-is from
the January piece. The top end of BTO guidance is 550k oz Au for 2016, this new pile puts the
IKN model on 545k, in other words the upper end of the range but still not predicting a beat on
the year. However, there are grounds for a BTO that outperforms in 2016 coming from...
1) The early permitting and bringing into production of the Jabalí satellite zone at the
Libertad mine. I remain leery, they’ve had social problems there and have promised to
get Jabalí going on previous occasions once too often, but if they deliver it will affect
my model to the upside.
2) Otjikoto getting a boost from Wolfshag. Again it’s a high-grade zone and they could get
an out-sized 4q16 from this if it comes online as expected (or a little early) and the
grade of the few tonnes is better than the average (not uncommon for a company to
start feed this way).
3) Limon getting to 60k oz, which would be at the top end of BTO’s guidance and 5k more
than my model. Limón had its worker problems late last year but the incident(s),
triggered by the firing of two particularly troublesome employees, seems to have blown
over. Over time BTO has done a good job at Limón and doesn’t deserve any question
marks on just one incident
On the other hand, I still feel burned about the way BTO guided to 500k in 2015 all year, only
to report production of 493k at the
BTO: gold production by mine
end. On balance I think BTO can be 160000
reasonably expected to put in a 150000
140000
better year, the upper end of its 130000
guidance numbers looks very 120000
110000
attainable and beating the numbers 100000
given looks more than possible. But 90000
80000
there’s no way I can start assuming 70000
60000
that optimistically at this early 50000
stage and after the disappointment 40000
30000
of 2015. As for the quarterly 20000
breakdown of the 2016 number, 10000
0
let’s save a bit of time and use the
mine-breakdown chart to show how
that works according to the model:
4
51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 tse61q1 tse61q2 tse61q3 tse61q4
oz Au Otjikoto prod
Masbate prod
Limon prod
Libertad prod
source: company filings

I’m expecting Q1 to be a decent quarter (but not quite as good as 4q15), Q2 to be the softest
of the year and then better numbers in the second half, as Jabalí (Libertad satellite) comes on
line and then Wolfshag at Otjikoto improves average head grades at the end of the year. That’s
one to remember, because a) don’t be too downhearted mid-year and b) if things go to plan
BTO will be kicking and buzzing at the end of the year, hopefully selling its wares at higher
market prices too.
Now for 2017 and 2018 and here right is the first time we see the effect of the Fekola financing
deal announced Tuesday (2) March 15th.
Up to this point I’ve used a straight
“production forecast” title on previous
versions of this chart to map out the
years in front of BTO, because the
company has always closely matched on
production and sales numbers. But from
today we change the title line word to
“Sales” because the Fekola finance deal
means BTO has pre-sold 43,100 oz per
year of gold from the 2017 band 2018
piles. Now, there are all different ways in
which this pre-sale will affect the
financials (they’re going to amortize and
recognize revenues on a quarterly basis, which sounds sensible and avoids getting into Primero-
type tax problems) but when it comes to straight-up gold sales it’s easier to visualize:
Previously, production/sales forecasts for 2017 and 2018 were 580k oz Au and 840 oz Au
respectively. Now that’s a sales forecast of 536,900 oz for 2017 and 840,000 oz for 2018. The
takeaway from this aspect of the Fekola financing deal is an easy pill to swallow, it takes the
edge off sales for a couple of years for sure but it won’t mean BTO is short on real sales in the
period, either.
As for the cash flows from the 2016 model, I’m going to combine the 4q15 review with the
forecasts for the year ahead in the next section. Here goes.
Financials overview
As noted above I’m not doing every nook and cranny today, there’s just too much otherwise,
here we’re going with the main news starting with the operations review and 2016 forecast as
that dovetails with the previous section (and because balance sheet items are more important).
BTO: operating margins
200 190.0
176.3
180
160 154.9 153.6 155.0
138.1 138.9 136.5 139.3 139.0
140 128.7 129.0 128.0 128.0
120 120.9 122.6 120.3 114.9 122.4 115.6 116.9 116.3 117.8 118.0 120.0
102.0 98.3 99.0 103.5
100 86.9 87.5 91.9
80
62.0
60 48.3
40 34.0 35.7 41.2 36.0 37.1 35.6 35.0
22.0 15.9 18.9 23.3 19.6 22.9 21.2
20
0
5
31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 tse61q1 tse61q2 tse61q3 tse61q4
BTO: sales and IKN forecast sales, per annum
900
796.9
800
700
600 545 536.9
493.265
500
373.4 391.2
400
300
200 144.5 158
108.7
100
0
$m
revenues COGS Op. Rev
source: company filings, IKN ests for 2016
Here’s the operating overview chart and in 4q15 BTO delivered the pre-announced U$139m in
sales and U$11.8m in costs for operating revenue of U$21.2m That was no surprise to anyone.
0102 1102 2102 3102 4102 5102 tse6102 tse7102 tse8102
OzAu
source: BTO data, IKN ests

But as the eye skates the chart and takes in the 2016 forecasts, things start to look a lot better.
The above chart is too busy for my liking, not easy to read. I included it because it gives a good
sweep over four financial years (three past, one future) and the operating revenues column in
particular demonstrates how 2014 and 2015 were the low-performing fallow years and we can
now expect BTO to start moving back up through the gears and generating better cash flow but
it offers more heat than light overall, so to home in on 2015 and 2016 only here’s the exact
same dataset but cut down to eight quarters:
BTO: operating margins
200 190.0
176.3
180
160 153.6 155.0
138.9 136.5 139.3 139.0
140 128.0 128.0
115.6 116.9 116.3 117.8 118.0 120.0
120
100
80
62.0
60 48.3
35.6 35.0
40
23.3 19.6 22.9 21.2
20
0
6
51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 tse61q1 tse61q2 tse61q3 tse61q4
$m
revenues COGS Op. Rev
source: company filings, IKN ests for 2016
Ah, that’s better. The benefits coming to BTO are 1) better gold price and 2) stronger
production numbers, a heady combo that’s set to see cash flow improve mightily over the next
four quarters. The guidance for lower operating cash costs per ounce (high end range
U$595/oz), largely thanks to Otjikoto, helps matters along nicely too. In 4q15 BTO’s average
sales price for gold was U$1,090/oz; in 1q16 we’re modelling at U$1,200/oz and then the next
three quarters at (what I believe to be) a reasonably modest assumption of U$1,250/oz. Add
that to the improving production and suddenly, a U$21.2m operating margin of 4q15 is a
U$62m margin in 4q16.
Once it’s churning out 140,000 ounces a quarter, the math says that every U$50/oz change in
the gold price is a U$7m shift in gross revenues for BTO. That’s up or down of course but as
I’ve used U$1,200/oz for the current quarter and then U$1,250/oz for 2q16 3q16 and 4q16, if
you fancy gold higher by the end of the year the adjustments are straightforward enough. As
for 2017 and 2018 we need to take into account the 13,000 or so ounces pre-sold per quarter,
but even those benefit from higher gold prices and the amortization will be at spot and the
long-term debt will be able to come off that
much quicker in a higher gold price BTO: Operating Revenue per share, per qtr
0.08
environment.
0.07
0.06
But as things stand and assuming the share
0.05
count stays where it is in 2016 (927.3m s/o,
0.04
no equity financing needed any longer) here
0.03
(right) is how the operating revenues would
0.02
translated on a per-share basis: 0.01
0.00
That’s 6.7c/share in 4q16, that’s under 8X
forward ratio on today’s share price, and if
BTG gets to U$2.50 per share its still less
than 10X. I call those perfectly acceptable
ratios for a growth story such as this stock, one where the CEO can get to the end of this year
and say hand on heart that the best is yet to come (from Fekola). And just to cover the base
and repeat myself, with companies such as B2Gold I see no reason to base targets on net
profits, what matters in a company that’s using cash to fund growth is its cash flow situation,
31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 tse61q1 tse61q2 tse61q3 tse61q4
$/share
source: company filings, IKN ests

not how much of that cash flows down to the bottom line.
The biggest risks to my 2016 production model? Those are easy:
• Gold falls back.
• BTO screws up on production again.
Of those two I can handle a reversal in gold more easily than BTO failing to meet guidance
levels this year. Gold is gold, it will do what it will but in 2016 I find myself putting my trust in a
company that annoyed me considerably at the end of last year due to its cavalier attitude
towards transparency and disclosure. BTO showed a basic lack of respect in the way it guided
for 500k with just six weeks to go in the year and not offering any correction or suggestion it
wasn’t going to make that number, then posting 493k. As things stand today and taking into
consideration that it was the first major error from the company (as well as nailing down that
excellent and very shareholder-friendly Fekola financing deal) I’m giving BTO a second chance,
keep my money in the stock and base my new target around what it says it will do this year.
But this is a classic case of “fool me once shame on you fool me twice shame on me” and I’m
leaving myself exposed to the second shot.
Now for the balance sheet BTO: Assets
We start with the assets overview chart and in 3000
the 4q15 column we see a dip from the small 2500
impairment ($108m pre-tax), a combo of
2000
drop in the gold price assumption from
U$1,300/oz this time last year to U$1,250/oz 1500
today, plus a U$32m write down on Gramalote 1000
(U$25m net after tax relief). BTO’s 49% of the
500
Gramalote project in Colombia (AngloGold
0
Ashanti 51%) is now carried at U$41.2m and
at that reasonable level the company may
even be able to find a buyer to take it off their
hands. I’m sure CEO Johnson would quickly
agree to such a deal if offered, too.
But as 2016 rolls out we expect BTO’s asset
value to pop back up, thanks to the Fekola
financing deal which dumps the build-out
money into the balance sheet and is set for
amortization too.
To consider current assets, look over there (cid:2).
This chart is a segment of the one above and
zooms in on current assets only in the last two
years and the forecast for the year ahead. The
model isn’t wasy to accurately call for the
reasons noted below in the working capital
commentary, but on a straight line basis we’re
expecting current assets to have hit their
lowest point now. The combo of the Fekola
financing taking the weight off treasury and
the improving gold price have provided the
turning point.
Now for liabilities and the Fekola financing has
its equal and opposite effect on the numbers
here. Total liabilities at BTO are set to go
above U$900m and that’s a lot, it’s the single
7
21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 tse61q1 tse61q2 tse61q3 tse61q4
$m
fixed
other current
cash&ST
source: company filings, IKN ests for FY15
BTO: Current Assets Only
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 tse61q1 tse61q2 tse61q3 tse61q4
$m
other current
cash&ST
source: company filings, IKN ests for FY16
BTO: Liabilities
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 tse61q1 tse61q2 tse61q3 tse61q4
$m
LT debt
current debt
source: company filings, IKN ests for FY15

main worry for us the equity holders as BTO needs to be able to show it has that pile under
control. The deal on Fekola is fine, that gets paid from gold production and the burden is light
enough, the issue is with the bug chunks of financial debt in the big red columns and
particularly the current $258m in senior notes (maturity October 2018) and the $220 currently
on the revolving loan facility (maturity May 2019). Those make up the worrisome part of its
present U$613m long-term liabilities position. What this means is that for the next year and a
half, BTO has no working capital issues but as from the last quarter of 2017, if it hasn’t added
significantly to its cash pile (or paid down its debt, revolver first I’d suspect) it’s going to come
under scrutiny for its liquidity position. I’d say as investors that the issue a latent one this year,
we’re not going to get much talking down of the stock at the moment, but it is the clear
weakness and if gold doesn’t do what the goldbugs are telling it to do, the pressure will start on
the share price.
Working capital isn’t easy to gauge going forward because BTO could at any time divert cash
away from treasury in order to pay for part
of the Fekola build-out (or pay down parts of BTO: Working capital
250
its liabilities, which wouldn’t be a bad thing
either) but on a steady-state basis and 200
taking into account on the one hand the
decent and improving cash flow under 150
current gold prices and on the other the new 100
2017 pre-paid obligations that will flow
through the current liabilities side, here’s 50
how the model pumps out the chart.
0
At a little over $100m working cap today
liquidity isn’t exactly tight, neither is it
swimming in cash. But as 2016 unfolds that
gets better and we model BTO leaving this year with $139m in working capital.
The share count looks like this, with 927.073m shares out as at 4q15 and there’s no reason why
that number should go up in the quarters to come (unless CEO Johnson decides to pad out
treasury with a smallish raising, but I doubt that now). The Fekola deal means we’re not about
to see another round of big dilution to this paper (for once, the grew the empire that way) and
this is wholly good news for us retailers at the
bottom of the food chain.
Overall the balance sheet at BTO isn’t
wonderful, it’s not bad either (proponents may
want to use the “leverage to gold” argument
at this point, I’ll pass on that particular
buzzphrase of stupidity). The Fekola deal has
slotted in and not added to the burden (as
many suspected it might), but the financial
debt is still there and the revolving loan
facility, with a maximum lend of $350m (or
$450m if circumstances allow) is open for use.
BTO planned to spend U$233m in FY16 on
Fekola, $120m of that will come from the pre-paid gold deal, some may come from the U$81m
Caterpillar plant lease deal though a lot of machinery won’t be pulled into the mine until 2017,
therefore we can expect more drawdown on that revolving loan. This concerns me, I’ll make no
bones about it, though I’m sure it concerns a balance sheet wonk looking two years into the
future more than the market looking two months. Or two weeks. Or two days. Or two hours.
The upshot it that BTO will show higher beta to the movements of gold than its peers, so we
wouldn’t want to see the metal under U$1,100/oz again. Mind you, that goes for just about
every miner.
8
41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 tse61q1 tse61q2 tse61q3 tse61q4
$m
source: company filings, IKN ests for FY15
BTO: Shares outstanding
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 tse61q1 tse61q2 tse61q3 tse61q4
m S/O
source: company filings/IKN ests

Enough trash talk and take a look at this little chart below right, one cooked up to compare
what has happened at BTO since I did that table-
B2Gold: Five week change in price/book ratio
banging exercise in IKN353 and 354. When i saw 1.6
the light on this stock (by comparing it to what 1.4
1.14
had just happened to Kinross) its price/book ratio 1.2
was still languishing at 0.68X, very much in the 1
dysfunctional category. My reasonable near-term 0.8 0.68
0.6
target of U$1.30 (and a near-30% upside) was
0.4
based at the time on BTO managing to get back
0.2
up to a still creaky but better 0.8 or 0.82 ratio.
0
Instead, BTO has blown through all barriers in
Feb 14th March 20th
just five weeks and is back above 1X, with the
source: NYSE, BTO data IKN calcs
market suddenly considering it “functional”.
That’s one helluva rally, folks.
So what has changed? It’s the same company with the same assets after all. Three things have
changed in my view:
1) Gold papers over the cracks, in this company as well as many others. BTO at
U$1,100/oz demonstrated in 4q15 that it was a breakeven entity. At U$1,200/oz and
above it’s a profit-maker. People prefer profit-making companies, I’ve noticed that over
the years.
2) The tide has turned in the sector, the long-shunned PMs are suddenly fashionable, it’s
cool to own bullion, generalists are back buying gold and gold names, this time it’s
different. Et cetera.
3) The Fekola financing deal has lifted a welter burden from the shoulders of this
company. The deal is shareholder-friendly, adds no dilution and its terms of payment
are more than reasonable; it’s like a two year stream instead of a life-of-mine lock-up
and easily payable, too. At the turn of the year it wasn’t just talk of how heavy the
Fekola burden would be, but serious anal ysts asking whether BTO could even afford to
build its mine on the current timeline and whether it would have to put it on ice. That’s
all disappeared, the deal as revealed last Tuesday has received universal applause, the
share has reacted the way a cork held underwater reacts when you let it go.
It’s been a good time to be a holder of this stock (and it’s been a long time since I’ve been able
to say that out loud). Leverage to the right side, oh yeah.
A new price target
Back in IKN254 I cared only about my near-term US Dollar fliptrade in BTG and I stuck a
U$1.30 target based on price/book ratios on the stock. That hit nicely, I took my profit and the
good news is that I was wrong to sell that tranche, because since then the stock’s gone from
strength to strength.
A very nice mistake to make, as I’ve held on to the vast majority of my shares in the long-term
position. But what we now have is a clearly out of date price target. The market and its
sentiment has changed, BTO’s profit-making ability has changed thanks to the new gold price
deck, its future growth plans now look assured and have brought more cheer. Therefore a new
price but my stars, I won’t kid you when I tell you it’s very difficult indeed to make a cool-
headed objective numbers-based call on a stock and a sector that’s suddenly bubbling and full
of subjectively driven market momo and speculative action.
So what to do? I’ve given it three days worth of my braintime and come to these conclusions:
For the time being, I’m going to stick with an asset-based target generation. The main driver of
last week’s good feeling was the clarity on the Fekola deal, that’s all about future asset value
9
oitar
koob/ecirP

rather than present day cash generation, it makes sense to value on that.
As usual aim for a 12 month price target which makes it tough because we’re considering on
what BTO will be at the end of 2018, but sticking a target for the end of 2016. So be it.
Remain conservative. I’m going to pull a number, rabbit-like, from out of my top hat that won’t
appeal to at least a section of you who look for sexy doubles and triples from their bullish
period junior stocks. Fair enough. Sorry people, I’m going to take it slow and steady with my
main and biggest position, I’m a whuss like that remember.
BTO: Book value per share, per qtr
We start with this chart, which shows how the 1.70
book value (i.e. equity, i.e. the classic “total 1.65
1.60
assets minus total liabilities) per share has 1.55
1.50
evolved and how we expect it to develop as 1.45
1.40
Fekola is built out this year and BTO makes
1.35
operating profit on its working assets in the 1.30
1.25
meantime: 1.20
1.15
1.10
Today BTO is worth U$1.42 according to its 1.05
1.00
balance sheet, we project that by the end of
the year it will be worth U$1.56/share.
That’s the easy bit. Now comes the bit where I
try to condense the line of reasoning I have in my head to a table and some script that will
hopefully clarify things and get to the heart of the matter, but if I get it wrong won’t explain
enough and leave the audience scratching its head. Let’s see how bad I am at this explain
game. Here below is a table which shows you where we are today and what I think we can
expect by the end of the year:
B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to): Forecast asset value per share (all US Dollars)
Share price Mkt cap $m BV end 2015 BV end 2016 P/BV end 2015 P/BV end 2016
$1.50 1390.61 $1312 1447 1.06 0.96
$1.62 1501.86 $1312 1447 1.14 1.04
$1.70 1576.02 $1312 1447 1.20 1.09
$1.80 1668.73 $1312 1447 1.27 1.15
$1.90 1761.44 $1312 1447 1.34 1.22
$2.00 1854.15 $1312 1447 1.41 1.28
$2.10 1946.85 $1312 1447 1.48 1.35
$2.20 2039.56 $1312 1447 1.55 1.41
source: IKN estimates from IKN data, BTO data
The two gold-shaded boxes are for the U$1.62 share price, i.e. this weekend’s close, and the
P/BV that implies this weekend of 1.14X (you recall from above, much higher than the 0.68X of
Feb 14th). That’s where we stand today.
The yellow-shaded boxes to the right are what I think we can reasonably expect by he end of
the year. Assuming gold doesn’t dive on us (see risk factors above) we should be able to at
least keep the same Price/Book ratio and more likely improve on it. Then we add in the
expected better book value (aka equity value) we forecast for the end of 2016 of U$1.447Bn.
That combo gives us a range of price targets from U$1.80 to U$2.10 for the BTG ticker.
• U$1.80 is 11.1% higher than this weekend’s closing price of U$1.62. Using a CAD$1 =
U$0.80 forex rate, it implies a CAD$2.25 share price target for BTO.to.
• U$2.10 is 29.6% higher than this weekend’s closing price of U$1.62. Using a CAD$1 =
U$0.80 forex rate, it implies a CAD$2.62 share price target for BTO.to.
10
41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 tse61q1 tse61q2 tse61q3 tse61q4
U$
source: IKN calcs from BTO data, ests

And that’s the range in which I find myself today. And to make it a bit omre confusing or
clearer (feel free to ignore this table) here’s another table generated from the same dataset
which basically sets out the same numbers in a different way. The red box is where we are this
weekend namely:
• Book value per share is U$1.42, according to the 4q15 financials
• The weekend’s share price is U$1.62
• That means the price/book ratio is 1.14X
US Dollar BTO: price/book ratio
BV/share 1.00 1.10 1.14 1.20 1.40 1.50 2.00
1.42 1.42 1.56 1.62 1.70 1.99 2.13 2.84
1.44 1.44 1.58 1.64 1.73 2.02 2.16 2.88
1.46 1.46 1.61 1.66 1.75 2.04 2.19 2.92
1.48 1.48 1.63 1.69 1.78 2.07 2.22 2.96
1.5 1.50 1.65 1.71 1.80 2.10 2.25 3.00
1.52 1.52 1.67 1.73 1.82 2.13 2.28 3.04
1.54 1.54 1.69 1.76 1.85 2.16 2.31 3.08
1.56 1.56 1.72 1.78 1.87 2.18 2.34 3.12
source: BTO data, IKN calcs
Then I’ve shaded an area in yellow as the type of area in which I think BTO can trade in the
next 12 months (gold price and operational execution permitting) with the high price of U$2.19
and the sweet spot central average between U$1.90 or $2.10. For what it’s worth, it also fits
with the 10X op revs/share calculation for end 2016 which implies a CAD$2.50 target and
because of that, I’m going to use CAD$2.50 as my new nominal target.
I’m not totally convinced about my own target here, principally because I don’t think I’m
capable of putting a solid number on the current high-end speculative sentiment in B2Gold and
the junior/mid-cap miner sector in general. What this is, more than anything, is a ‘work in
progress target’ and one that can be refined as the market shows more of its hand. If gold
starts to rise hard into and above 13-handle, all bets are off and BTO will go higher than my
best guess. If gold slips, or if BTO doesn’t deliver on production, or if the market decides it
wants another sector to be the hot one all of a sudden, those things might affect my target to
the downside. Be clear I’m play a range, not a number.
But it’s still a number and I think it’s a conservative one and eminently reachable under today’s
circumstances. I’d agree it’s not an eye-popping-wowser upside and that’s why a) I’m not
adding any more to my BTO at the moment and b) shifting sentiment down to “buy” from the
“strong buy” of the last few weeks. But it’s upside and it’s more than enough to keep BTO at
the top of my list and the IKN Weekly Top Pick. I’m a happy holder of an out-sized position.
Stocks to Follow
Of our six open positions on the ‘Stocks to Follow’ list, two were week-over-week losers (LRA..v
dropped a penny, NEV.v a penny and a half), one was unchanged (FCV.v) and three were
winners. All three were double-figure percentage wins too, with B2Gold (BTO.to up 22.3%),
Starcore International (SAM.to up 14.6%) and Regulus (REG.v up 11.8%) making it an
excellent week for the portfolio. Especially B2, of course.
We’re currently at just six open trades, a very low number set to change soon, nine fewer than
our self-imposed maximum of 15 at any one time. Four positions are in the green, the two
losers are big percentage legacies and will need an awful lot of up to change colour.
11

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICK
B2Gold BTO.to Buy C$2.11 12-sep-14 C$2.14 1.4% New 12month target C$2.50
Metals Producers (in current order of preference)
Starcore Intl SAM.to spec buy C$0.48 10-jan-15 C$0.51 6.3% Rapidly improving profile
Land Grab Stocks (in current order of preference)
Lara Expl. LRA.v Buy/Add C$1.15 08-apr-12 C$0.36 -68.7% solid biz model, waking up
Other Recommended Stocks (in current order of preference)
Focus Ventures FCV.v spec buy C$0.23 01-jul-12 C$0.065 -71.7% Hit hard by PFS news
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v spec buy C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.19 2.7% New Li spec play, small flipper
Regulus Res REG.v hold C$0.30 06-apr-15 C$0.38 26.7% Comm. Rels slow progress
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 closed positions in appendices below
Now for some notes on current basket stocks.
B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG): Lots above on the Fekola financing numbers and the quarterly
financials, here we note the relative performance by BTO to the market and move on. Here’s a
five day chart:
Nice chart. BTO was already reacting well to the Fekola debt package news on Tuesday and
bounced well with the rest of the world on FOMC Wednesday. But Thursday’s action is the
standout for me, with the market buying the financials results and no matter it couldn’t hold
onto the best of the gains that day, BTO has got its mojo back and all of a sudden it’s being
treated the way it used to be treated, as a go-to gold trade instead of a lacklustre under-
performer. This time last weekend my thinking was that as sights had been set down by the
12

market and “hold” was the new sell-side consensus, there was a growing chance of a pleasant
market surprise. BTO delivered on that beautifully, first with the strong Fekola financing news
and then with a set of financials that didn’t have to sparkle in order to impress.
And now, all of a sudden, there’s a blob of green ink on the BTO ‘Top Pick’ line instead of what
seemed like a blob of perma-red. I’ll also remind you of the dark days of January 2016 when
my BTO.to ‘Top Pick’ position (i.e. aside from the separate near-term BTG flip trade that had
been set up be then and is now closed for a nice win) was showing negative 51.2%.
Nevada Sunrise (NEV.v): This lithium wannabe churned out three more NRs last week,
which is part of the typical MO for a pump story. On Tuesday it announced (3) it had secure the
option on another lithium concession, close to (but not in) the hot Clayton Valley Nevada. This
land grabbing is true to form I suppose but doesn’t mean much for the moment. Then on
Wednesday NEV announced (4) that the previously announced $500,000 placement of 2.5m
units at 20c was now 2.8m units at 18c (unit = 1 share plus a half warrant at a 30c strike).
Then on Friday evening it announced (5) that it had closed on the first part of the placement,
just under half sold already at gross proceeds of $204k.
Of the three pieces of news the material one that affected its trading was the drop in the
private placement ticket price to 18c, which saw the shafe drop with it. I shrugged my “oh well”
shrug and reminded myself this is a tiny position without great pretense. I’ll let it run fr a while
longer, but this type of re-pricing action is usually a bad omen and as I don’t have much
spiritual capital in the future of this trade, I may let ift go in the next few weeks. I’ll give the
whole “lithium pump” thing a while longer and it may pay still. But not that long.
Focus Ventures (FCV.v): FCV got some media width in Peru last week when an interview
with company president Davis Cass made local business media (6). Nothing we haven’t heard
before, but I like the way it’s getting the word out locally and I also like the confirmation that
FCV is currently working on a revised mine plan and expects to publish on revisions made to the
year-end pre-feas study in May or June 2016.
A quick 50 word memory jog: FCV needed to get its pre-feas completed by December 31st 2015
else incur a stiff financial penalty from its JV partner with whom it’s optioning in on Bayovar12.
FCV delivered the pre-feas just in time, but the project economics weren’t that great on paper
and the share price got pummelled. What we know is that the rushed completion left plenty of
room to optimize the mine plan and now, with time to consider options, FCV is doing just that
and we can expect a better set of numbers come the day the revised plan is published.
Starcore Intl (SAM.to): We do a quick-ish review of the 2q16 results published by SAM last
week in ‘Market Watching’ below, here a comment on the market action in our small
producer/land grab spec trade and things are suddenly looking very perky in this position. I like
that I’m finally in the green on my cost
average (my stars, when it rains it pours), I
like the way the ask got taken all week but I
particularly liked...yes you’ve guessed it...
the volume traded in SAM, which at over
400,000k for the week isn’t a mass liquidity
event but it’s already up a whole bunch from
the dregs it served nearly all 2015 and a
couple of those days we’re well above 100k
traded. It’s almost a tradeable stock now.
Here¿s a 10 day chart that shows how SAM
started the week at 45c and finished it at
51c, plus the way it traded Friday smacked
of one or two players locking in over the
weekend, so I’d say there’s more to come. Back in IKN354 I made a case for it becoming a
13

CAD$0.65 stock on straight numbers, but without having enough conviction to add to my own
small pile. I’m sticking with that call, it’s a risky thing that could still trade higher. All good.
The Copper Basket
After eleven weeks of 2016, The Copper Basket shows a 34.21% gain to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/16 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 HudBay Min. HBM.to 0.35 235.23 1253.78 5.33 0.4%
2 Ivanhoe Mines IVN.to 0.61 778.96 638.75 0.82 34.4%
3 Reservoir Min. RMC.v 4.08 48.69 314.05 6.45 58.1%
4 Capstone Min. CS.to 0.44 382.04 206.30 0.54 22.7%
5 NGEx Resources NGQ.to 0.65 201.06 140.74 0.70 7.7%
6 Nevada Copper NCU.to 0.66 80.5 74.06 0.92 39.4%
7 Copper Mtn CUM.to 0.445 118.8 73.66 0.62 39.3%
8 Western Copper WRN.to 0.38 94.19 70.64 0.75 97.4%
9 Copper Fox CUU.v 0.125 417.64 68.91 0.165 32.0%
10 NovaCopper NCQ.to 0.395 104.33 48.51 0.465 17.7%
11 Atico Mining ATY.v 0.28 97.59 32.20 0.33 17.9%
12 Cordoba Min. CDB.v 0.16 79.45 31.78 0.40 150.0%
13 Hot Chili Ltd HCH.ax 0.09 420.12 27.73 0.066 -26.7%
14 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.205 173.61 24.31 0.14 -31.7%
15 Revelo Res. RVL.v 0.055 99.19 8.43 0.085 54.5%
NB: HCH.ax priced in AUD$, rest CAD$ Portfolio avg 34.21%
The overall Copper Basket average managed to book another winning week, but it was a
modest one with seven winners (HBM.to,
RMC.v, NCU.to, HCH.ax, WRN.to, ATY.v, 35% The Copper Basket 2016, weekly evolution
RVL.v), three unchanged stocks (CS.to, 30%
25%
ARG.to, CDB.v) and five losers (IVN.to, 20%
NGQ.to, CUM.to, CUU.v, NCQ.to) and the 15%
10%
detail that catches my eye, no double figure
5%
percentage moved registered anywhere 0%
-5%
among the 15 names, up or down.
-10%
-15%
-20%
In copper metals trading, the most liquid
futures contract popped over U$2.30/lb for a
few hours late-week before settling below that
line for the weekend. Here’s the hourly chart
which shows its gradual improvement over the
week and then the advance on the back of the
weakened US Dollar.
Nothing to criticize there, enough cloth for bulls to
make their suit(e) of arguments though other
arguments used by the copper bulls, such as lower
LME inventories and a significantly bigger net long
position for funds on he LME, kind of lose strength
when we’re reminded, gently but firmly, that the
LME isn’t top dog any longer. Example, Reuters in
its Friday wrap-up (7):
"Whilst the dollar weakens and oil rises we are
back to a reflationary environment for
commodities, which to some extent
14
dr3naj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht6 ht31 ht02
source: IKN calcs

overpowers the micro factors," Standard Chartered metals analyst Nicholas Snowdon
said.
Copper also drew support from declining physical stocks in London Metal Exchange
warehouses. Copper in the warehouses stood at 158,275 tonnes, down about 30
percent since late November, though much of the inventory has just moved to
warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
"The critical question for China is how do these demand conditions shift in the second
quarter," said Snowdon. "Clearly there's been a significant build in inventories, which
will act as a buffer to any immediate pick up in demand."
Mr. Snowden has a better view of things than your average suited talking head, I’d vouch.
As for me, I’d flirted with the concept of getting more bullish on copper’s near-term future but I
feel myself increasingly being pulled back into the bearish argument, from whence I came. The
deciding factor is how the underlying copper metals is long on hope, short on data. We get to
hear how February copper imports into China (420k tonnes) were 50% up year-on-year, but
when Glencore’s Glasberg quoted that in his recent conference call he forgot to mention that
the February 2015 import number (280k tonnes) was a spike low and an outlier of a month last
year. He also forgets to mention how 65,000 of those Feb 2016 tonnes went straight into SHFE
warehouses and haven’t come back out again yet. The bullish argument seems to be based
firmly on “China government stimulus coming soon”, which is just another flavour of jam
tomorrow. Meanwhile, the underlying fundies data worsens and people with a lot of knowledge
of this market are calling a top in copper already, two weeks ago the head man at Codelco
Landerreche, today this guy (8)
Top China Copper Trader Says Second-Half Slump Stalks Market
He Jinbi, founder and president of Xi’an Maike Metals International Group...said in
recent interviews.
“Demand for the second half might not be good and we may face some risks from the
global markets,” He said at the Shanghai office of the company he founded in 1993.
Maike has a joint venture, HFZ Capital Management Ltd., with Red Kite Group, one of
the biggest metals hedge funds.
“The property industry in China remains weak, with falling investment and fewer new
projects, so we can can hardly expect big growth even if basic demand remains
stable,” said He. Demand growth of one or two percent for the year would be
“acceptable”, he said. Copper consumption in China grew about 3.9 percent year,
according to commodities researcher CRU Group.
And on the subject of real data, here come the bullet points on our weekly copper warehouse
inventories section, once again with an extra helping of bear from Shanghai:
• Total world copper stocks in the three official warehouse systems once again popped
hard, up by a very big 63,935 metric tonnes (mt) (+11.6%) to finish Friday at
616,791mt and if you’re one of the diehard IKN Weekly subbers who have read every
single word of today’s Copper Basket section to this point, you won’t need a second
guess as to where nearly all that new copper landed.
• Shanghai inventories rocketed again, another massive influx of metal. We finished the
week here at 394,777mt, up by 44,639mt (+12.7%). Stocks have doubled in two
calendar months and we’re long past the point when the “Shanghai always has a spike
up, it’s part of the cycle” people have stopped being so blasé about their public
statements.
• LME stocks dropped again, down 17,700mt (-10.1%) to finish at 158,275mt. The
arbitrage of moving metals from LME to China continues, but it’s by no means enough
to cover all the SHFE surge..
• The Comex recovered all the lost inventory of the week before last and more besides,
15

up a hefty 11,553mt (+22.1%) to finish at 63,739mt..
Here's the Shanghai chart, the visual here is better than any words I can lay down in the bullets
above. It’s true we get a de-stocking period after the re-stocking period every year, but it
involves the removal of perhaps 120,000 tonnes or 150,000 tonnes from April-ish through to
the end of the year. Take 150,000 tonnes away from the stocks added this year and you’d still
be a pre-2016 record highs!
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014-2016
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
16
31'13ceD ht91 ht9 dn2ram dr32 ht31 ht4yam ht52 ht51 ht6yluj ht72 ht71 ht7 ht82 ht91 ht9 ht03 ts12 ht11 ts1bef dn22 ht51 ht5rpa ht62 ht71 ht7nuj ht82 ht91 ht9 ht03 ht02 ht11 ts1von dn22 ht31 dr3naj ht42 ht41 ht6ram
Mt Cu
source: Cochilco
But there’s one thing we know about bulls, they can live in absolute denial indefinitely.
Reservoir Minerals (RMC.v): This desk has picked up a low-ish level but persistent buzz
from a couple of completely separate sources; BHP Billiton (BHP) may be about to partner up
with RMC in order to gain control of the Timok area play and snatch the prize out of the hands
of Lundin Mining (LUN.to).
In other news, late Friday evening RMC filed its annual financials (its year-end is November
30th) and there was nothing out of the ordinary. The cash & short-term investments position
remains a strong $32.3m, no debt, working cap almost exactly the same as the cash number,
$6.8m cash spent on operations in the fiscal year. All good, no alarms, no surprises. There are
now 48.69m shares outstanding, that number having edged up by a couple of hundred
thousand after some options were exercised. No biggie.
Nevada Copper (NCU.to): This made-for-retail dog added 7c on the week, again on low
volumes. Of those seven, 6c was added in the final 15 minutes of Friday trading. I have nothing
further to add.
HudBay (HBM.to): With a final flurry of buying last week (thanks to the Fed) HBM has done
what looked impossible in January and climbed back into the green for 2016. I’m now sorely
tempted short this stock, there’s just too much optimism baked into a company still under
serious financial pressure. It’s liquid enough to short easily (unlike Capstone) and being US
quoted makes the borrow a hundred times easier for a retail grunt such as I. I’m going to try to
convince myself on the numbers again during the week ahead and if I do, it’ll be an anal ysis
for the next edition. As for a clue, here’s the latest balance sheet with the elephant in the room
circled red.

The thing that’s holding me back is wondering just when copper will reverse and drop. Markets
can and often do stay irrational longer than you or I remain solvent.
The Low Cost Producer Basket
After 11 weeks of 2016, the Low Cost Producer Basket shows a gain of 67.42% to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/16 Shares out Mkt Cap (Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Barrick ABX 7.38 1164.67 17.17 14.74 99.7%
2 Newmont NEM 17.98 529.12 14.71 27.80 54.6%
3 Goldcorp GG 11.56 830.22 14.01 16.87 45.9%
4 Franco Nevada FNV 45.75 176.298 11.57 65.64 43.5%
5 Agnico Eagle AEM 26.28 217.67 8.27 37.98 44.5%
6 Ang/Ashanti AU 7.10 405.27 5.50 13.58 91.3%
7 Detour Gold DGC.to 14.41 170.85 3.44 20.12 39.6%
8 Sibanye Gold SBGL 6.09 228.71 3.43 14.99 134.2%
9 New Gold NGD 2.32 509.16 1.97 3.87 66.8%
10 Buenaventura BVN 4.28 254.19 1.55 6.08 42.1%
Prices in U$/NYSE tickers, except DGC.to (CAD$) Portfolio avg 67.42%
At this stage last weekend in IKN357 I reported:
17

• Another strong week for our list
• Nine winners
• Just one loser, the Loonie denominated Detour
This weekend it’s exactly the same; Another good week with another 1.5% added to the gap
between us and our GDX benchmark, once again nine winners, once again the Loonie
demoninated Detour Gold (DGC.to) the sole loser.
The GDX ETF is having a great year, now up by over 50%. We’re 17.2% in front of that
performance thanks to picking star stocks such as Sibanye and Barrick.
The Low Cost Producer Basket: Weekly performance
70% and comparative to GDX control
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
18
dr3naj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht6 ht31 ht02
basket
gdx control
source: Google Finance, IKN calcs
Low Cost Basket: Percentage difference between
basket and GDX control, 2016
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-14%
-16%
-18%
dr3naj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht6 ht31 ht02
source: ikn calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq data
Again no double figure moves from our bunch, with the best performance in percentage terms
from Buenaventura (BVN up 7.2%). Dogs wagging tails, perhaps.
That will do for this week, the basket is a tracker device for the smaller stocks and performing
its task well, you don’t need to see that FNV price chart again or hear about my personal BVN
neuroses.
Regional politics
Regional Risk Review next week
It’s coming around again, the end of another quarter and due up next weekend in IKN359 is
the regular feature, the Regional Risk Review. Writing that one up will keep me out of mischief
during the long Easter weekend.
Peru’s farcical election chapter 85
The latest from the stupidity that’s still trying to pass itself off as a democratic election:
Since Julio Guzmán was thrown out of the election by the JNE/JEE electoral bodies (and César
Acuña, though he was already dead in the water) for minor technical irregularities in his party

and candidature inscription, Keiko Fujimori is still the clear vote intention leader and Pedro
Pablo Kuczynski (PPK) is a clear second place. Five or six points behind PPK come Alfredo
Barnachea (another centre-right candidate) and Veronika Mendoza (a lefty). Alan García
continues to make zero progress in the polls, though his APRA party is now alluding via several
ways that the polls are fixed.
As for the second round run-off, latest forecast polls for that (9) have Keiko with a slight, four
point advantage (43% to 39%) over PPK if he makes second spot, then Keiko has big
advantages over any other candidate. The most likely second round scenario therefore
promises to be a reasonably tight contest, with Keiko currently with a small advantage.
As from Friday (10), poll leader Keiko Fujimori is now under active investigation by the JNE/JE
for the same type of illegal move for which César Acuña was barred, namely giving away
money at a party rally (on February 14th in the Callao district of the greater Lima conurbation).
It’s difficult to know whether the accusations against Keiko will prosper. There’s a video of the
event and plenty of solid evidence that plenty of envelopes containing S/.300 each (U$88) was
given to “winners of a competition”. Her party people have admitted money changed hands at
the meeting where Keiko was present, but defenders say that as she didn’t do the giving it’s
nothing to do with her. Under normal circumstances it’s the type of thing you get your knuckles
rapped about at worst, but these are not normal circumstances; this is the dirtiest and most
underhand, rigged election I’ve witnessed since living in Argentina in the 1990s, anything could
happen and the will of the Peruvian people as a collective is being ignored by the power-
hungry. I’m no fan of Keiko Fujimori and still firmly believe a Fujimori back in power would be a
net negative for the country (especially socially) but it’s up to the people to decide, not a bunch
of judges and lawyers funded by corruption and working for a corrupted system.
Argentina: The bond holdouts deal passes a key hurdle
Last week Argentina’s lower chamber passed the laws and rule changes necessary in order to
do its deal with the bond holdouts/vulture funds. That’s half the legislation, the other half is
slated to happen at the end of this month when the bills go to the upper house Senate.
Assuming they vote for the holdout deal (and it’s highly likely at this point) President Macri will
be able to sign all the papers and make things official early April. At which point Argentina will
be able to say it’s finally out of default in the eyes of the world (though the CFK government
insisted that wasn’t the case anyway).
Market Watching
Starcore International (SAM.to) 2q16 financial results
On the evening of Tuesday March 15th SAM filed (11) its 2q16 financial quarter (which runs to
January 31st on its fiscal calendar) and it was an okay set of numbers; instead of filing my
expected very small net loss it came in
with a very small net profit, mostly SAM.to: Operations overview
10
because of below-the-line financials 9
adjustments, but overall SAM’s series of 8
break-even-or-therebouts of the last 7
6
seven or eight quarters continued just
5
as we’d expected.
4
3
We did this tinystock fairly recently in 2
IKN354 dated Feb 21st so I’m not doing 1
0
a whole bunch today, we can take a
-1
better look at SAM once we have the
next set of production figures (to end
April, they’ll announce mid-May) and
19
31.tco 41.naj 41.rpa 41.yluj 41.tco 51.naj 51.rpa 51.yluj 51.tco 61.naj
$m revenues
COGS
mine op earnings
source: SAM filings, IKN ests

get a call on its ops. Just a few of the usual suspect charts today
The operations overview here, with the Jan.16 columns coming in as expected. I had mine
operating earnings at $0.3m in my model, reality was $0.67m. Close enough.
Working cap came in well, at over $10m. SAM is liquid and that’s good for the purposes of
back-stopping the $4m loan it took out to get the Altiplano toll milling operation started. That’s
due paid back in November so even if the real estate cash doesn’t turn up, SAM isn’t going
bankrupt.
On the subject, it’s worth another
mention that we can add the potential of
the $7m SAM expects to reap from the
sale of its now designated real estate
land (see IKN357 last week) which is
supposed to close within six months.
That would put this company on an
excellent financial footing.
One thing that has changed is the shares
out number, now up to 49.154m after a
shares-for-debt deal saw nearly 4m extra
paper added.
That makes SAM a $25m market cap
company, give or take. For me that still
cheap if you consider:
• $10m in working cap, plus that
$7m bonus prize coming soon,
minus the $4m in to-be-repaid
debt. A virtual EV of $13m.
• Operating and cash flow
positive gold mine
• Plenty of land assets on its
books (eg Creston) that can
revalue in a new bull market.
• The Altiplano toll mill operation,
which potentially adds more cash generating ability.
That’s the kind of wordy narrative of value that gets charted this way by numbers:
SAM.to: share price vs book value/share
(adjusted for Dec'15 reverse split)
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
20
11.yluj 11.tco 21.naj 21.rpa 21.yluj 21.tco 31.naj 31.rpa 31.yluj 31.tco 41.naj 41.rpa 41.yluj 41.tco 51.naj 51.rpa 51.yluj 51.tco 61.naj WON
SAM.to: Working Capital per qtr 14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
pps at qtr end
bv/share
source: company filings, TSX, IKN calcs
The big gap between the value on its books and what the market is telling us this weekend, aka
11.yluj 11.tco 21.naj 21.rpa 21.yluj 21.tco 31.naj 31.rpa 31.yluj 31.tco 41.naj 41.rpa 41.yluj 41.tco 51.naj 51.rpa 51.yluj 51.tco 61.naj
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
SAM.to: Shares Out
50 (adjusted to 4:1 rollback December 2015)
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
41.naj 41.rpa 41.yluj 41.tco 51.naj 51.rpa 51.yluj 51.tco 61.naj
source: company filings/IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim

a 0.4X P/BV. All in all, worth the risk this one. Holding.
Yamana (AUY) (YRI.to) and Brio Gold; Waiting for Godot
Whatever the last-minute glitch might be on the Brio Gold paperwork, we still haven’t got news
from Yamana (YRI.to) (AUY) about its supposed re-boot of the Brio Gold spin-out. This is
somewhat surprising because my source had the deal being announced two weeks ago rather
than not at all, but I can assure you that it’s in the pipeline and can only assume it’s a matter of
time. Or timing.
Minera IRL (IRL.to) (MIRL.L): News here “soon”
I received several mails from those of you anxious (if that’s the word after all this protracted
mess) for comment on Minera IRL on the back of its NR on Friday morning (12) that spoke of
1) production results for Corihuarmi 2) the completed review of closure costs for the Corihuarmi
mine, one of the main outstanding matters that was preventing IRL from filing its financials
quarterlies (which in turn suspended the stock from trading) and 3) the announcement of a
change of auditors. In turn on those three things, then a final comment:
1) The production numbers form Corihuarmi were good, especially if you consider this
heap leach is getting long in the tooth and the Team Hodges blithering idiots would
have closed it down already if they’d had their way (part of their asset stripping plan,
you may recall). It’s not a company maker or breaker, it is useful cash flow that’s
managed to keep the company afloat through these very difficult times.
2) The review of closure costs is an important step.
3) An abrupt change of auditors like this under normal circumstances would be cause for
justifiable nerves in other companies, but in the upside-down world of IRL this is in fact
good news, certainly nothing for us on the outside to be concerned about.
Meanwhile we’re close now to a resolution, a little more time perhaps just the other side of
Easter, and therefore beg your indulgence and patience. It’s not easy for anyone, but I’m fully
confident that IRL, once it has news, will provide good news for us rather than bad. That’s all
I’m going to say for the time being, thanks for your understanding in the meantime.
Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) (FSM) misses
Here’s a ten day chart of Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) versus the silver bullion ETF (SLV) and just by
looking at the squiggly lines it’s easy to see that
FVI reported its quarterly and 2015 year-end
financial results before the open on Tuesday
(13) FVI has company specific good things and
bad things, such as the good production at San
José Mexico which has papered over the cracks
of the rapidly tiring Caylloma mine in Peru.
Production guidance for 2015 at San José was
around 4.3m oz silver (plus the gold and the
other things of course), it delivered an excellent
4.9m oz Ag. Meanwhile, Caylloma guidance at
the start of 2015 was for 2.2m oz silver, it
ended by delivering just 1.7m oz. That’s a big
miss, it’s the main reason for the $25m write-
down taken by FVI in this quarter, guidance for 2016 is much lower (1.2m oz Ag) and for all
intents and purposes Caylloma is now a zinc/lead base metals operation with a silver kicker.
But FVI’s numbers also reflect the point I was making last week; it’s difficult for a silver (or
silver oriented) mining company to make a true profit in these days of 80:1 silver/gold ratios.
Fortuna Silver isn’t a mediocrity either, it’s one of the very best of its sector and goes about the
job of mining well (even if their exploration campaigns have failed to add significant resources
at Caylloma) but that’s reflected in its share price; it’s a damned expensive share to own if
you’re only going to get break-even on the bottom line.
21

Thanks to Janet Yellen & Co and the euphoric pop on the Fed news, FVI saw its steep drop
reverse and nearly got away with its poor financial results, but it couldn’t hold the rebound an
finished down on the week. This share price is simply too expensive and that comment goes for
a lot of silver mining companies right now which are being lumped into the “precious metals
sector” but have a different and more difficult economic cliff to scale than the goldies. I’m still
avoiding all serious silver exposure, I see no reason to prefer these stocks to miners that are
producing gold profitably.
Silver Range Resources (SNG.v): Cheap stock with an interesting new direction
Late Friday evening a news release hit the wires (14) that had much more about it than your
normal post-close junior NR. The company in question is Silver Range Resources (SNG.v) and
the news is that there’s been both a change in the top of management as well as a new
corporate direction and plan, both of which are very welcome changes.
The reason it caught my eye is because the new CEO of SNG.v is Mike Power, who is well
known as one of the top independent geologists in the Great White North and comes with his
own team of experts and contacts, too. He was until recently also known to the world as “Muck
Pile Mike (I don’t think I’m giving away any secrets any more) who ran the excellent blog “The
Muck Pile until closing it very recently in order to take up this opportunity.
Anyone (like me) who was a fan of The Muck Pile knows him as a straight-shooting, honest
voice in the often despicable world of junior mining. Mike Power has the same type of hatred of
Howe St and its pumphouse shenanigans as your author and over time him and I hit it off
professionally and also in exchanged mails on this-or-that thing. Therefore I find it easy to say
the following: Any company run by Mike Power will at the very least, have its shareholders well-
being as one of its main concerns. I’ going to be an exploreco and that’s highly risky all by
itself, but in this case we know that management will be batting on the same team as us retail,
it’s going to be run by a class act.
On hearing of the appointment I shot a mail to CEO Mike Power and he replied quickly (which is
good). Here’s a bullet point summary of what we know and what he told me about his new gig
• Shares out 47.4m, fully diluted 50.51m, share price 7c, market cap CAD$3.32m.
• Cash treasury $1.75m. No debt.
• The current SNG Yukon projects (lead/silver/zinc exploration stage deposits) will go on
hold. A good thing too.
• Chair Doug Eaton is marketing in Europe, looking to raise a little more cash. That
means a bit of dilution, probably, but it will also put the company on a solid though
modest budget footing.
• New CEO Mike Power is looking to add gold projects, with a focus on NWT and/or
Nunavut as geography. He and his team/friends/colleagues have a lot of expertise and
leads in those zones. Epithermals preferred (not Carlin-style things, in his words
“midgets should stick to hills”). Boot-leather inspection of maybe a dozen prospects will
happen during the Northern summer
• This is not going to be a near-term pump/dump vehicle, they’ll be looking to add true
discovery value, so those of you looking for “a vehicle” please move on.
• News flow should start after Easter. They’re going to base the corporate model on the
‘prospect generator’ philosophy, getting other people/companies to buy in and spend
the money on the rocks (I like one of CEO Power’s personal commandments, “Thou
shalt not drill, thou shalt get the other guy to drill”). The overall intention is to expand
22

the portfolio, get good rocks to sell and then sell them hard to the right partners. He
already has projects coming into the structure that he thinks are saleable, which would
start the ball rolling nicely.
Read the NR on that link (14) for more on what
the new structure is bringing into SNG. Overall I
like this news, it strikes me as the right combo
of good people moving into the right space at
the right time. The share price is dirt cheap and
although we may get a round of top-up
financing in the near future, seven cents and
$3.3m for this kind of brains trust is the right
price already, you may just want to buy a few
and file them under “forget for a year”.
Definitely one to follow.
Conclusion
IKN358 is done, we end with bullet points:
• We still like B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to) but there’s going to be a limit to the fast upside run
of the last few days/weeks. Today’s new target, posted at C$2.50 but best thought of
as a range around that number, is more than enough to keep me long this Top Pick
stock but those of you looking for the spec popper may have missed the boat.
• Watch out for Silver Range Resources (SNG.v), as despite having the word ‘silver in its
corporate title is now an interesting new story. Want it simple? If it’s good enough for
Mike Power, it’s good enough for me. Back the jockey, he’s a class act.
• I’m sitting on my cash now, waiting for the buying opportunity. Only time will tell how
stupid I’m being with this near-term strategy, feel free to mock.
• Aside from B2Gold, another I was out of love with at the end of 2015 and beginning of
2016 was Starcore (SAM.to), but in the same way as BTO it’s now a very interesting
and peppy little stock. It’s highly speculative, don’t close your eyes to the risk, but if
things go right here it could go a lot higher.
• Gold exposure beats silver exposure, all day and all night. Fortuna (FVI.to) gave us
another example of that last week. As for copper, I’m now leaning back to bearish, but
too chicken to call short on HudBay (HBM) this weekend. Until next week perhaps...
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Otto
23

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) http://www.b2gold.com/news/display/index.php?news=2035206
(2) http://www.b2gold.com/news/display/index.php?news=2034287
(3) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/nevada-options-atlantis-lithium-property-130000908.html
(4) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/nevada-sunrise-reprices-private-placement-130000840.html
(5) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/nevada-sunrise-closes-first-tranche-214900400.html
(6) http://www.portalminero.com/pages/viewpage.action?pageId=109117460
(7) http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFL3N16Q38B?sp=true
(8) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-17/top-china-copper-trader-says-second-half-slump-stalks-market
(9) http://elcomercio.pe/politica/elecciones/cpi-posibles-escenarios-segunda-vuelta-electoral-noticia-
1887449?ref=nota_politica&ft=mod_interesa&e=titulo
(10) http://elcomercio.pe/politica/elecciones/onpe-abre-proceso-al-partido-keiko-tres-casos-dadivas-noticia-
1887654?flsm=1
(11) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/starcore-reports-q2-2016-results-124500377.html
(12) http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/minera-irl-limited-provides-corporate-update-2107255.htm
(13) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fortuna-reports-consolidated-financial-results-040850552.html
(14) http://www.silverrangeresources.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=743119&_Type=News-
Releases&_Title=Silver-Range-to-Acquire-Gold-Projects-and-Change-Exploration-Focus
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2014
Closed in 2014 closed close price
Fortuna Silver FVI.to jan'14 C$2.80 23-dec-13 C$3.19 13.9% small ST trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to jan'14 C$2.06 07-jun-13 C$2.30 11.7% trading position finally closed
Network Expl. NET.v feb'14 C$0.01 22-jul-12 C$0.005 -50.0% position closed, did nothing
Tahoe Resources TAHO feb'14 U$13.10 08-apr-13 U$21.72 -65.8% short closed due to reality
Darwin Res DAR.v mar'14 C$0.10 14-jul-12 C$0.045 -55.0% tiny risk play dropped
B2Gold BTO.to mar'14 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.35 9.1% closed to free up capital
Pretium Res PVG mar'14 U$5.38 22-nov-13 U$6.50 -20.8% short closed as port longer
24

Gold Res Corp GORO may'14 U$5.07 26-jan-14 U$4.12 16.7% took profit
Bear Creek Min BCM.v may'14 C$1.63 23-mar-14 C$2.05 25.8% Took profit, sm near-term win
Eco Oro Min. EOM.to aug'14 C$0.48 22-sep-13 C$0.26 -45.8% sold small loser to make room
True Gold TGM.v sep'14 C$0.395 02-feb-14 C$0.41 3.8% M&A won't happen, sold
Santacruz Silver SCZ.v sep'14 C$1.04 26-jan-14 C$0.86 -17.3% silver/M&A spec, rel. small
Timmins Gold TGD nov'14 U$1.38 09-apr-14 U$0.99 -28.3% failed trade, sell, raise cash
Kinross Gold KGC nov'14 U$2.90 20-oct-14 U$2.15 -25.9% V small trade, didn't work, chau
Salazar Res SRL.v hold C$0.28 02-mar-14 C$0.145 -48.2% lost China sponsor
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2013
Closed in 2013 closed close price
USA Graphite USGT feb'13 U$0.93 08-jan-13 U$0.17 81.7% short tgt made/trade closed
Lachlan Star LSA.to feb'13 C$1.50 30-sep-12 C$0.95 -36.7% sold to reduce port risk
United Silver USC.to mar'13 C$0.21 28-oct-12 C$0.095 -54.8% small Ag sector trade, failed
Aurcana Corp AUN.v apr'13 C$1.07 11-nov-12 C$0.55 -48.6% closed on poor YE results
Gold Res Corp GORO apr'13 U$14.11 25-jan-13 U$9.38 33.5% short tgt made/trade closed
Marlin Gold MLN.v apr'13 C$0.075 10-feb-13 C$0.065 -13.3% closed trade
Bear Creek BCM.v may'13 C$2.58 01-apr-13 C$2.40 -7.0% near-term, time ran out
Lupaka Gold LPK.to may'13 C$1.12 23-oct-11 C$0.32 -71.4% towel thrown in
Tahoe Resources TAHO may'13 U$18.62 08-apr-13 U$14.70 21.1% took profit on ST short
OceanaGold OGC.to jun'13 C$3.03 16-sep-12 C$1.18 -61.1% sold on gold drop
IMPACT Silver IPT.v jun'13 C$1.14 13-jan-13 C$0.62 -45.6% sold on silver drop
Duran Ventures DRV.v jun'13 C$0.045 10-may-13 C$0.025 -44.4% ST trade never worked
Plata Latina PLA.v jun'13 C$0.79 10-apr-12 C$0.13 -83.5% closed
Bellhaven BHV.v jun'13 C$0.065 03-jun-13 C$0.12 84.6% closed ST trade
B2Gold BTO.to aug'13 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.44 12.1% sold 1/2 to raise cash
Colossus Min. CSI.to aug'13 C$0.72 24-jul-13 C$0.79 9.7% closed thru nerves on future
Pretium Res PVG.to aug'13 C$8.20 11-jun-13 C$10.14 23.7% closed to raise cash
Bear Creek BCM.v sep'13 C$2.06 30-may-13 C$2.20 6.8% sold on pol risk decision
MAG Silver MVG oct'13 U$7.00 12-sep-13 U$5.62 19.6% near-term short
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'13 U$9.52 03-may-13 U$4.98 47.7% short tgt made, covered
AQM Copper AQM.v oct'13 C$0.31 16-oct-11 C$0.125 -59.7% closed failed trade
First Majestic AG nov'13 U$11.51 07-nov-13 U$10.50 8.8% v near term short, closed
Fortuna Silver FSM nov'13 U$4.00 07-nov-13 U$3.68 8.0% v near term short, closed
Primero PPP nov'13 U$5.70 07-nov-13 U$5.75 -0.9% v near term short, closed
Starcore Intl SAM.to nov'13 C$0.235 08-sep-13 C$0.17 -27.7% ST trade didn't work, sm loss
B2Gold BTO.to dec'13 C$2.22 28-nov-12 C$2.16 -2.7% closed ST trade to raise cash
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2012
Closed in 2012 closed close PPS
Soltoro SOL.v jan'12 C$0.87 07-nov-11 C$0.94 8.0% cash moved to BCM.v
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to feb'12 C$0.84 13-oct-10 C$0.98 16.7% trade closed on ELG.v offer
Minefinders MFN feb'12 U$11.68 17-nov-11 U$14.80 26.7% target made, trade closed
Iron Creek IRN.v mar'12 C$0.58 26-sep-10 C$0.31 -46.6% time up on small bad trade
U.S. Silver USA.to apr'12 C$2.18 15-mar-12 C$1.86 -14.7% ST trade no good, cut loss
Augusta Res. AZC.to may'12 C$3.10 29-jan-12 C$2.07 -33.2% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Bellhaven BHV.v may'12 C$0.50 22-sep-10 C$0.28 -44.0% new mgmt not impressive
Zincore Metals ZNC.to may'12 C$0.325 29-jul-11 C$0.17 -47.7% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Soltoro SOL.v may'12 C$0.70 18-mar-11 C$0.41 -41.4% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
U.S. Silver USA.to aug'12 C$1.78 27-jul-12 C$1.36 -23.6% fail ST trade close pre split
Estrella Gold EST.v aug'12 C$0.91 27-mar-11 C$0.14 -84.6% Closed on port realignment
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'12 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.32 397.2% sell call $6.17/ Mar25
Strait Minerals SRD.v oct'12 C$0.125 09-dec-11 C$0.12 -4.0% closing coverage til FY13
Sunward Res SWD.to oct'12 C$1.47 13-mar-11 C$1.21 -17.7% sold, took loss
25

Gold Res Corp GORO oct'12 U$21.47 09-sep-12 U$17.40 19.0% Short trade closed
Yellowhead Min. YMI.to nov'12 C$1.00 01-apr-12 C$0.63 -37.0% sold, took loss
Primero Mining PPP nov'12 U$7.26 07-oct-12 U$6.73 7.3% Short trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v nov'12 C$3.38 07-nov-11 C$3.72 10.1% Took small profit
Vena Resources VEM.to dec'12 C$0.70 31-may-09 C$0.18 -74.3% Failed trade (caps F)
Galway Res GWY.v dec'12 C$2.19 24-nov-12 C$2.30 5.0% closed good ST arb trade
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2011
Closed in 2011 closed close PPS
Sunward Res SWD.v jan'11 C$1.05 21-nov-10 C$1.63 55.2% target made, trade closed
Serengeti Res SIR.v mar'11 C$0.245 05-dec-10 C$0.285 16.3% sold pre-tgt, ST trade fail
Fronteer Gold FRG apr'11 U$2.37 03-may-09 U$15.24 543.0% buyout, trade closed
Minefinders MFN apr'11 U$9.09 07-nov-10 U$16.89 85.8% target made, trade closed
Metalline Min. MMG may'11 U$1.04 26-jan-11 U$0.89 -14.4% exit, resource disappointed
Peregrine Met PGM.to jul'11 C$0.87 06-mar-11 C$2.60 198.9% buyout offer, closed
Dynasty Metals DMM.to jul'11 C$4.20 03-may-09 C$2.85 -32.1% Sold. Fail. Move on.
Aura Silver AUU.v aug'11 C$0.22 13-oct-10 C$0.16 -36.4% Bad pick. Take loss
U.S. Silver USA.v aug'11 C$0.52 26-jan-11 C$0.71 36.5% closed to make room
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'11 C$2.80 12-may-11 C$4.27 52.5% target made, trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v sep'11 C$3.80 27-may-11 C$4.17 9.7% macro sell call victim
Minefinders MFN sep'11 U$14.70 10-aug-11 U$15.15 3.1% macro sell call victim
Great Panther GPR.to sep'11 C$3.03 22-aug-11 C$2.64 -12.9% macro sell call victim
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'11 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.36 400.9% sold 20%, macro sell call
Focus Ventures FCV.v nov'11 C$0.40 20-apr-10 C$0.20 -50.0% cut losses, bad trade
Regulus Res. REG.v dec'11 C$1.17 14-aug-11 C$0.52 -55.6% cut on news of poor 43-101
2009 and 2010 closed positions in appendices below
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2010
Closed in 2010 closed close PPS
B2Gold Corp BTO.to Jan'10 C$0.88 08-nov-09 C$1.49 68.2% target made, trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v Jan'10 C$0.18 23-aug-09 C$0.40 122.2% target made, trade closed
MAG Silver MVG mar'10 U$5.60 23-nov-09 U$7.28 30.0% closed in pdac week
Riverside Res RRI.v mar'10 C$0.435 20-sep-09 C$0.60 37.9% closed in pdac week
Amarillo Gold AGC.v mar'10 C$0.81 31-may-09 C$0.70 -13.6% closed in pdac week
B2Gold Corp BTO.to apr'10 C$1.24 18-feb-10 C$1.50 21.0% target made, trade closed
Lumina Copper LCC.v apr'10 C$0.84 14-jun-09 C$1.55 51.2% total position now sold
Troy Resources TRY.to may'10 C$1.10 03-may-09 C$2.25 104.5% sold on negative results
AuEx Ventures XAU.to may'10 C$2.51 24-may-09 C$3.38 34.7% trade closed
Nevada Copper NCU.to jun'10 C$3.27 14-mar-10 C$2.03 -37.9% need to lower Cu exposure
Carpathian Gold CPN.to jun'10 C$0.39 14-mar-10 C$0.35 -10.3% too exposed to cap raising
Amerix PM Corp APM.v jun'10 C$0.065 08-nov-09 C$0.05 -23.1% victim of macro bear
Antares Minerals ANM.v jun'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$2.10 47.9% sold half
Vena Resources VEM.to jun'10 C$0.37 31-may-09 C$0.23 -37.8% sold half
Minera Andes MAI.to sep'10 C$0.75 28-jul-10 C$0.95 26.7% ST trade closed
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to sep'10 C$0.52 01-aug-10 C$0.75 44.2% target made, trade closed
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'10 C$1.45 25-may-10 C$2.01 34.5% target made, trade closed
Blue Sky Uran BSK.v oct'10 C$0.41 19-may-10 C$0.22 -46.3% v small v bad trade closed
Dia Bras Expl DIB.v oct'10 C$0.14 30-aug-09 C$0.35 150.0% target made, trade closed
S. Amer. Silver SAC.to nov'10 C$1.38 24-oct-10 C$1.60 -15.9% loss on short, small fail
Ventana Gold VEN.to nov'10 C$7.92 27-jun-10 C$13.51 70.6% trade closed on buyout
Lumina Copper LCC.v nov'10 C$1.42 11-aug-10 C$3.65 157.0% trade closed
Antares Minerals ANM.v dec'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$8.40 491.5% trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.v dec'10 C$0.69 23-mar-10 C$2.16 213.0% trade closed
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Coro Mining COP.to dec'10 C$0.585 03-oct-10 C$1.24 112.0% target made, trade closed
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2009
Closed positions closed closing PPS
Cardero Res CDY/CDU.to May'09 U$1.20 03-May-09 U$0.87 -27.5% sold on negative news
Eastmain Res. ER.to May'09 C$1.04 06-May-09 C$1.315 26.4% trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v May'09 C$0.165 03-May-09 C$0.235 42.4% trade closed
Latin Amer Min. LAT.v May'09 C$0.12 03-May-09 C$0.158 29.2% trade closed
Aquiline Res. AQI.to July'09 C$2.03 16-Jun-09 C$1.68 -17.2% took loss, bad timing
Chariot Resources CHD.to Aug'09 C$0.20 12-Jul-09 C$0.415 107.5% trade closed
Castle Gold CSG.v Sep'09 C$0.64 02-Aug-09 C$0.60 -6.3% ST trade didn't work out
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to Sep'09 C$2.30 12-May-09 C$4.50 95.7% profit taken
Los Andes Copper LA.v Sep'09 C$0.09 21-Jun-09 C$0.09 0% trade closed
Pediment Gold PEZ.to Oct'09 C$0.80 09-Aug-09 C$1.00 25.0% trade closed
Minera Andes MAI.to Oct'09 C$0.68 03-May-09 C$0.71 4.4% too much bad news
Dynasty Metals DMM.to Nov'09 C$4.18 03-May-09 C$6.01 43.8% half sold
Rusoro Mining RML.v Nov'09 C$0.55 03-May-09 C$0.57 3.6% underperformed
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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