IKN #347Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 347, January 3rd 2016
Contents
This Week: Today’s bare bones edition.
Fundamental Analysis: The 2016 Low Cost Producer Basket.
Stocks to Follow: Overview, Minera IRL (MIRL.L) (IRL.to), Starcore Intl (SAM.to), B2Gold
(BTG) (BTO.to), McEwen Mining (MUX), Phoscan (FOS.to), Focus Ventures (FCV.v).
Copper Basket: The new Copper Basket marks prices.
Low Cost Producer Basket: Overview, The new Low Cost Producer Basket.
Regional Politics: Regional Risk Review.
Market Watching: The Crusades.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Today’s bare bones edition
As explained in IKN345, today’s edition is bare bones in several of the normal categories, with
main efforts placed on 1) the new composition of the Low Cost Producer Basket and the
Regional Risk Review. I’m not going pad things out with a bunch of price charts, either.
The full IKN Weekly coverage which you’ve learned to hate and bores you stiff returns next
weekend, so enjoy the short issue while it lasts. And Happy New Year to you all.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Deferred.
Stocks to Follow
Of our 13 open positions on the ‘Stocks to Follow’ list, a full six made gains on the shortened
and calm Christmas/New Year gap week (FOS.to, ATM.v, LRA.v, DNA.to, TGM.v, FCV.v), one
remained unchanged (SSP.v) and six showed a weekly loss (BTO.to, LSG.to, TGZ.to, MUX,
SAM.to, REG.v). The two double figure percentage changes were both losers via Starcore
(SAM.to down 14.8%) and Regulus (REG.v down 14.6%).
The whole week was governed by two overriding influences: First the general improvement of
stocks that had been sold down in the main tax-loss selling season, second the negative action
of the gold producer stocks that were weighed down by the metal’s weakness in the last week
of the year. That’s about all she wrote, trading was light all round and there’s not too much we
can read into things.
With the removal (temporary or otherwise) of Minera IRL from the ‘Stocks to Follow’ coverage
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(see below) there are now 13 open positions in the list, two below our self-imposed 15 name
maximum. Three trades are in the green, one is unchanged, nine are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICK
B2Gold BTO.to buy C$2.17 12-sep-14 C$1.40 -35.5% Top Pick, 4q15 prod key
Metals Producers (in current order of preference)
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to STR buy C$1.07 07-apr-15 C$1.12 4.7% M&A tgt 1.50 tgt
Teranga Gold TGZ.to STR buy C$0.55 15-feb-15 C$0.49 -10.9% V cheap sub-60c but no momo
McEwen Mining MUX hold U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.06 -2.8% Santa Rally
Starcore Intl SAM.to spec buy C$0.48 10-jan-15 C$0.26 -45.8% 4-for-1 rollback, tgt to review
Land Grab Stocks (in current order of preference)
Phoscan Chem FOS.to hold/sell C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.28 -1.8% Under offer, may sell
Sandspring Res SSP.v hold C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.145 -28.2% Risky small play, 30c tgt
Atacama Pacific ATM.v hold C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.155 -18.4% Spec buy, cheap adv proj
Lara Expl. LRA.v hold C$1.15 08-apr-12 C$0.25 -78.3% solid biz model, LT hold
Other Recommended Stocks (in current order of preference)
Dalradian Res DNA.to STR buy C$0.64 27-oct-13 C$0.79 23.4% New tgt 95c to $1 Sep 20
True Gold TGM.v spec buy C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.235 30.6% 25c to 30c sell price tgt
Focus Ventures FCV.v hold C$0.23 01-jul-12 C$0.115 -50.0% tgt 50c, phosphate great value
Regulus Res REG.v hold C$0.30 06-apr-15 C$0.205 -31.7% Comm. Rels slow progress
Closed in 2016 closed close price
none as yet
2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 closed positions in appendices below
Now for some notes on current basket stocks.
Minera IRL (IRL.to) (MIRL.l: Dropped from ‘Stocks to Follow list. One of the things that
a break from it all brings is a sense of perspective. It wasn’t until my short rum-punch-and-
novels vacation was over and I’d I sat down to begin the Weekly that it occurred to me, but
when it did it was obvious.
Until trading is resumed in Minera IRL (IRL.to) (MIRL.L) it’s being dropped from the ‘Stocks to
Follow’ list, quite simply because there’s nothing to follow in the stock. The story of the
company is a different matter and we’ll keep close tabs on that in other sections of the Weekly
(e.g. ‘Market Watching’ as necessary), but until there’s trading it’s not going to be on the list
any longer. Hopefully it will be reinstated, and sooner rather than later, but the 2015 debacle in
this stock shows there’s no point holding out for a logical conclusion on an obvious timeline
when the Team Hodges scum are still running their dirty deeds and tricks on us.
Starcore Intl (SAM.to): Target price under revision. Another piece of common sense that
occurred to me this weekend (post-break perspective helped again) is that the 76c target price
on Starcore is way overdue a revision, if only for the fact that this weekend’s 26c price means
it’s currently aiming at a near 200% upside (192.3% to be precise). Like is as I do as a value
(trap) proposition, we need to be realistic, note that we’re in a fully bearish market for our
sector until further notice and admit the chances of a rally to those levels is vanishingly small.
Therefore I’m going to run a few new parameters on the model this week coming and adjust
the price target to something more reasonable and attainable in the medium-term. But however
much the target is cut, I want to make plain that I’m not a seller of SAM.to and will hold
through on this position. By the way, it’s an obvious buy for those of you fishing for real deep
asset value that can ride out the indefinite doldrums but that’s not for me at this point; SAM
isn’t liquid to trade, I hold enough as it is, I want opportunity for spare cash at the moment
rather than yet another buy-hold-wait-suffer trade.
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B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to): Another disappointing week for BTO, the third on the trot and for a
few moments last week the US listing BTG dipped under U$1.00 per share (the shadow of the
ordeal Rob McEwen is going through starts to loom over our Top Pick).
The omens for the critical 4q15 production report aren’t strong, it has to be said. I’m expecting
it to hit in perhaps week three of this month (BTO is one of the slower ones among the juniors
to report its preliminary production numbers ) and from there decisions shall be made.
McEwen Mining (MUX): Rob McEwen managed to get his stock to the end of 2015 above
U$1 with a run of wholly manipulated trading that that nonetheless strengthens his case against
the de-listing review running against the stock by the NYSE people. So be it, but what we really
need to care about is a decent quarter’s worth of production from the company’s operations.
MUX normally announces its preliminary production numbers fairly early (or when given a
chance to do so by its HOC JV partner at San José) so we may get something from MUX, even
perhaps El Gallo 1 stand-alone figures, as early as next week.
Phoscan Chemicals (FOS.to): The soft limit date of January 10th for a sale (take small loss or
repa tiny win) is next weekend, let’s see how it trades next week. Truly, I’ve lost interest in this
one, thanks to yet another management team that’s managed to snatch defeat from the jaws
of victory.
Focus Ventures (FCV.v): Focus gave us the good news (or perhaps the relief news) on
Wednesday December 30th (1) that it had taken delivery of the Pre-Feas study and had
delivered it to the necessary people before the December 31st deadline, thereby avoiding a
hefty $500k penalty. We mortals will find out its contents as soon as the company has sifted
and arranged the numbers for NR-type consumption and I suppose we’ll get the full document
once the 45 days are up on SEDAR.
The Copper Basket
After zero weeks of 2016, The Copper Basket is unchanged to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/16 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 HudBay Min. HBM.to 0.35 235.23 1249.07 5.31 0.0%
2 Ivanhoe Mines IVN.to 0.61 778.96 475.17 0.61 0.0%
3 Reservoir Min. RMC.v 4.08 48.46 197.72 4.08 0.0%
4 Capstone Min. CS.to 0.44 382.04 168.10 0.44 0.0%
5 NGEx Resources NGQ.to 0.65 187.71 122.01 0.65 0.0%
6 Copper Mtn CUM.to 0.445 118.8 52.87 0.445 0.0%
7 Copper Fox CUU.v 0.125 417.64 52.21 0.125 0.0%
8 Nevada Copper NCU.to 0.66 80.5 53.13 0.66 0.0%
9 NovaCopper NCQ.to 0.395 104.33 41.21 0.395 0.0%
10 Hot Chili Ltd HCH.ax 0.09 420.12 37.81 0.09 0.0%
11 Western Copper WRN.to 0.38 94.19 35.79 0.38 0.0%
12 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.205 173.61 35.59 0.205 0.0%
13 Atico Mining ATY.v 0.28 97.59 27.33 0.28 0.0%
14 Cordoba Min. CDB.v 0.16 79.45 12.71 0.16 0.0%
15 Revelo Res. RVL.v 0.055 99.19 5.46 0.055 0.0%
NB: HCH.ax priced in AUD$, rest CAD$ Portfolio avg 0.00%
The new Copper Basket now has its 1/1/16 prices set as seen above. As expected, trading was
light last week and there weren’t any big changes to the list (no changes in the market cap
league table order, for example.
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Nothing much to add here, bare bones holiday coverage though I will add a small stop-press
and note that Brent Cook (nobody’s fool) bought a small chunk of our newly added basket stock
Ivanhoe Mines (IVN.to) on the last day of trading last week in what seems to be framed as a
near-term trade. He sees plenty of fundamental value in this stock at current levels, as do I.
The Low Cost Producer Basket
After zero weeks 2015 Low Cost Producer Basket is unchanged to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/16 Shares out Mkt Cap (Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Goldcorp GG 11.56 830.22 9.60 11.56 0.0%
2 Newmont NEM 17.98 529.12 9.51 17.98 0.0%
3 Barrick ABX 7.38 1164.67 8.60 7.38 0.0%
4 Franco Nevada FNV 45.75 157.07 7.19 45.75 0.0%
5 Agnico Eagle AEM 26.28 217.67 5.72 26.28 0.0%
6 Ang/Ashanti AU 7.10 405.27 2.88 7.10 0.0%
7 Detour Gold DGC.to 14.41 170.85 2.46 14.41 0.0%
8 Sibanye Gold SBGL 6.09 228.71 1.39 6.09 0.0%
9 New Gold NGD 2.32 509.16 1.18 2.32 0.0%
10 Buenaventura BVN 4.28 254.19 1.09 4.28 0.0%
Prices in U$/NYSE tickers, except DGC.to (CAD$) Portfolio avg 0.00%
The idea this year is to try and pick a list of ten names that won’t just track the GDX benchmark
like last year. I’m not looking for some mega-alpha against the GDX and in the end it’s a case of
trying to pick out the components that are part of the ETF but (in my view at least) have a
chance of being in the upper half of performers. With that said it also needs to be
representative of the type of company that can still make money in this lower gold price
environment and that, in our new modern world, means choosing stocks that can get their
costs under control.
That’s the blah-blah intro, now for the ten stocks for 2016. Six are survivors from last year and
I’ll add a line to their names to say why they’re still part of the basket. The other four (in
market cap order AngloGold Ashanti (AU), Detour Gold (DGC.to), Sibanye Gold (SBGL) and New
Gold (NGD)) get a little more attention today in order to explain their inclusion. Not so much
though, it’s going to stay bare bones today and there’s plenty of time to go into more detail
about the relative strengths and weaknesses of each stock.
1) Goldcorp (GG): Still the world’s biggest freely traded gold mining company by market cap
(a mouthful that’s necessary in order to frame its position accurately), but not by much. GG is a
necessary part of the mix not only due to its size but also because it truly is a low cost producer
of gold. GG had a tough year last year and will be looking to do better under the soon-to-be
new CEO David Garofalo.
2) Newmont (NEM): Among the Tier 1 gold producers, NEM did better than just about any of
them last year and saw a share price drop of under 10%. NEM’s been outperforming on bottom
line profit returns and that’s helped a lot by its relatively light liabilities position that doesn’t
take much away from the operating profits. NEM tends to pick “safe” jurisdictions in which to
own mines and work.
3) Barrick Gold (ABX): The third of the Big Three names, ABX had a tough time of it in 2015
but along the way CEO Thornton managed to execute on the asset disposal strategy put in
place in 2014 to lower the company’s welter debt burden. That’s set to continue in 2016 and as
we’ve mused in a couple of recent pieces, there’s the potential of ABX having “secret weapons”
that can come to the fore in the year ahead, mostly in the shape of organic growth projects.
ABX couldn’t seem to catch a break last year but it’s being well managed financially these days
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and unless gold really goes South and stays there, the worst of the structural heavy lifting is
probably behind the company now. I’m not in a hurry to own any of the Big Three, but ABX is
intruiging and it’s the one I’d most likely own.
4) Franco Nevada (FNV): Conception by Lassonde, construction by Harquail and 2015 was
the year in which the precious metals mining community fell over itself in order to praise the
genius of the Streaming/Royalty model for the sector that was really started in this company.
Even so, FNV stock was a small loss-maker in 2015 so we shouldn’t get too carried away. A
“miner” between inverted commas, FNV (and its ilk) are exercises in accountancy and careful
financial planning more than any digging or refining. I don’t own and I’m in no hurry to either,
because I see no reason to prefer this type of “safe” PM stock to owning bullion. But that’s just
me. As low cost as they come, a deserving member of the list.
5) Agnico Eagle (AEM): Arguably the most successful of the established mining names in
2015, AEM has done well in building out its mine developments and is now positioned as a fully
fledged Tier 1 name and low cost producer. The only name on our list to have returned a profit
on its share price.
6) AngloGold Ashanti (AU): The first of the new names for 2016. The travails and woes at
AngloGold Ashanti (we’re going to track it via the NYSE “AU” ticker, but main listings in Joburg
or London are there for you too) were well documented in 2015 and it’s had to do some serious
chopping of both assets and workforce in the last few months in order to try and turn its ship
around and lighten a heavy debt position. I’m including AU in the 2016 first for its size (it used
to be much bigger but a $2-and-bits-billion market cap is a different sub-sector that requires
coverage), for its interesting forex exposure to the US Dollar (SBGL gets the nod for that reason
too) and also because it’s probably a little further behind Barrick in its necessary turnaround of
liabilities. In this respect, AU represents a type of “leverage to ABX” and my interest is to see
whether it will be able to outperform the bigger company, because if it can it will point to a
improving macro scenario for all PMs. For sure a lot will depend on the gold price for the pair
relationship, but the beta is the thing here.
7) Detour Gold (DGC.to): Canada’s great hope and Last Man Standing among Toronto’s
most hyped gold stocks in the last couple of years, I personally wouldn’t touch the thing (keep
looking at that financial debt) but there’s no knocking success and DGC’s share price
performance in 2015, up around 33%, was nothing short of remarkable. The reasons to like the
stock are its obvious position as a takeover target for one (or more than one) of the big names,
its mine plan execution and its development upside at Detour Lake. The downside, aside from
the big financial liabilities on its books, is its One Trick Pony status with virtually all its net worth
tied up in one operation. The Canada brokerage world has seen so many of its potential
darlings falter and die but in DGC (and arguably the now bought-out Osisko) we have a success
story to follow in the year ahead.
8) Sibanye Gold (SBGL): Being outside of the normal focus of The IKN Weekly, I don’t think
I’ve ever mentioned this company before on these pages but it’s one I’ve watched on a casual
basis since its inception a couple of years ago (spun out of Gold Fields (GFI) as it was) and
when it came to thinking about new names for this year’s basket, it immediately appealed. At
first I thought of running with GFI itself but after consideration SBGL brings several advantages
to the table over its mothership company. First it’s a big producer (around 1.6m oz Au/annum),
next it’s got a relatively clean balance sheet position (hey I always like those), then it’s also an
interesting forex play thanks to its mines all being in South Africa and having recently seen the
SA Rand dump heavily against the dollar, finally because it’s not such a pure gold play any
longer after its approx $250m acquisition of PGM company Aquarius in October 2015. That
could provide the leverage that could help our basket beat the street (though as we all know,
leverage is a double-edged sword). Well run (its head honcho picked up a “best mining CEO”
award at Mines & Money in London recently) and with a long-term view, SGBL is my slightly-
left-field pick for the year (replacing PAAS, for what it’s worth).
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9) New Gold (NGD): There won’t be many raised eyebrows among regular reader about the
inclusion of New Gold (NGD) in this year’s list, as you know I like this stock’s upside potential
from current levels and even traded it last year for that rarest of jewels, a profit in the second
half of the year. I like the way NGD has gone about positioning itself for expansion at the Rainy
River project and has raised all the money it’s going to need to do so. Project economics may
look a bit thin on the 43-101 numbers but I’d bet dollars to donuts that its cost profile has
dropped significantly since then (both capex and opex) so as long as it can keep to the build-
out schedule, NGD is a real live growth opportunity at (what looks like to me) the bottom of the
market.
10) Buenaventura (BVN): BVN was beaten up like few others last year and I watched in
wonderment as it went first under U$5 and then U$4, multi-decade lows for the stock. Its
operations are in fair shape but the combo of the now ageing Yanacocha (43.5% owner) and
the heavy debt position (spot the recurring theme in the gold mining world) has the market
worried about its future as a company. It should be, BVN’s unique situation as a tightly
controlled “family” company (the Peruvian Benavides clan, headed by company head Roque
Benavides, holds the all-important Class A shares that shape the company’s fate) and access to
future funding (be in no doubt folks) means it’s not going away no matter what the debt rating
agencies might have you believe. In a ten company flat-rate participation basket that’s looking
to outperform the GDX in 2016, BVN is an obvious one to include for the speculative value it
could bring if and when this long-haul bear for PMs reaches a turning point.
Conclusion: There you have it, one week later than originally planned (which gave me chance
to cogitate a little more and decide on SGBL over a couple of others, for what it’s worth) but
we’re now set for 2016 and able to track the bigger end of the gold sector via our basket. Some
of the choices are more speculative than others, because as well as the size differences that are
obvious from the market cap column, I’m adding risk every time I include a company with less
healthy balance sheet (e.g. ABX, DGC.to, AU, arguably BVN and NGD). Others are there
because they’re truly representative of the sector in which we swim (GG, NEM, ABX again) and
a few are there because they may be able to provide an edge (SBGL, DGC.to again, AEM). You
might also note that the silver exposure (no more PAAS, no more SLW) has been cut right
down too, as I’m still a firm believer that gold stocks are the ones that will perform best even if
the silver metal price does better than gold during the next 12 months.
Regional politics
Regional Risk Review
It’s quarter-end and time for the review of regional political risk for junior mining. This is the
11th edition of the revised format, the latest having come in IKN347. The standard reminder of
how the categories are considered with their score out of ten: The 6 categories are:
a) National Government Miner Friendly: The country on its national stance towards
mining activity.
b) Community/Social Miner Friendly: The overall attitude of locals towards mining,
either in specific zones or in country regions.
c) Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Friendly: The openness towards FDI and the
safeguards it gives to foreign capital looking for a home.
d) Mining Culture: Countries or regions with generational traditions in mining are easier
places in which to operate than those which have little previous exposure to formal
mining operations.
e) Geopolitical Optics: The way in which the outside world sees this country, an
important factor, no matter if the perception be right or wrong.
f) Internal/National Political Stability: A gauge of how stable the place is politically.
We concentrate on nine countries with the potential to host companies, rather than try to offer
a comprehensive LatAm-wide view that takes in countries with little or no appeal for investment
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or speculation in juniors. However the mix of names has changed slightly since the last edition
with the exit of Guatemala and the introduction of Guyana to the main focus group. Here’s this
quarter’s table, below the country-specific notes.
December 2015 Latin American Country Risk For Foreign Mining Companies
Nat. Govt Community/Social Geopolitical Internal Nat.
Country FDI Friendly Mining Culture Total
Miner Friendly Miner Friendly Optics Political Stability
LatAm countries under active consideration for junior mining project location
Chile 9 7 8 10 7 8 49
Peru 9 5 9 9 6 6 44
Mexico 8 6 7 9 6 6 42
Nicaragua 8 5 7 7 6 6 39
Guyana 8 7 7 6 6 5 39
Brazil 7 5 7 8 5 6 38
Argentina 8 6 6 6 6 6 38
Dom Rep 8 5 7 5 5 8 38
Colombia 6 4 8 6 7 6 37
Potentially relevant LatAm countries for junior mining
Panama 6 5 9 4 8 6 38
Ecuador 7 5 5 4 8 7 36
Guatemala 7 4 4 5 3 4 27
Countries of little or no interest for junior mining exposure
Bolivia 4 6 2 9 6 9 36
Uruguay 5 5 7 3 6 7 33
Paraguay 7 5 6 3 4 6 31
Honduras 7 3 4 5 3 3 25
Costa Rica 1 1 5 1 6 7 21
Haiti 6 3 4 1 3 4 21
El Salvador 1 1 4 1 6 4 17
Venezuela 1 5 1 3 1 2 13
source: The IKN Weekly house estimates
Overview
In IKN347 I mentioned that I wasn’t happy with the results that the scoring system was giving
and was thinking about a re-jigging of the system. In the end and after playing around with a
few ideas, I’ve come to the conclusion that the system being used isn’t all that bad but what I
needed to do was to make a clear distinction between jurisdictions that hold true potential for
an investments (particularly in these bearish times) and those in which it simply adds an extra
and unnecessary layer of risk without much reward if you decide to place cash in a company
exposed to a country. Examples of that include:
• Bolivia, a country with a long tradition of mining activity and plenty of “mining culture”,
but not a place in which to expose capitalist-type junior mining cash.
• Guatemala, in which we can even highlight the specific example of Tahoe Resources
(TAHO) (THO.to). Escobal is undoubtedly a great mining operation and asset, being
one of the very few (near) pure silver mines that can run profitably at today’s price
deck, but the risk of being exposed to a country in which anything can happen (and at
this time of presidential transfer the risk is heightened further) dos not compensate for
a reward that can be obtained just as well from other silver/precious metals companies
operating in far safer and FDI-friendlier places. The risk of a Black Swan event must be
taken into consideration.
• Ecuador, which has been trying to make all the right noises about attracting mining
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investment for many years and is currently going through another phase of pro-mining
marketing at a governmental level. The cycle has come around plenty of times, but
with a country that’s delivered far less than it’s promised for coming on a decade
confidence cannot be word-driven, it has to be results-driven.
And I could continue. The point I want to make is that you cannot (or better said I cannot)
convey the miner-friendliness of LatAm states just out of a set of numbers and there has to be
a presupposed “this is a possible” statement about the country in question before it can be
considered a potential destination for your/my investment cash.
So after all that wordiness, we get to the point I want to make(cid:1)(cid:1)(cid:1)(cid:1): I’ve decided not to
change the points system but from now on, I’m going to concentrate efforts and commentary
on the nine countries inside the LatAm region that can be considered either serious places to
invest or speculate of are at least interesting and can offer out-sized reward to their potential
risk. Those are the nine countries featured in the coloured section of the table above (Chile to
Colombia). Then there are still three others that I’d consider “potential” and they’ll get the odd
mention or two along the way, but until they change significantly they’ll be watching brief only.
Finally, the uninteresting countries will remain on the table above but there’s little point in
continuing coverage until something big happens to change paradigms in any of them
(including the higher-scoring Bolivia for the reasons outlined above).
No more “Red for Danger”: But back to the main nine and as per the table, it’s easy to note
that there are three countries that are rated higher than the others. The three “serious mining
countries” of LatAm are (in order) Chile, Peru and Mexico. Even though it’s important to stress
that none of them are perfect and you need to be very aware of micro-regional factors inside
the countries (e.g. both Peru and Mexico have their own “no-go” regions for mining activity),
they’re the three places where the stars are aligned when it comes to cultural, political and
industrial acceptance of the mining industry and due to that they get the “green for go”
background. Then come the other six, all under the “orange for warning” colour and vying for
contention as places you can reasonably consider for your investment buck. However I’ve now
dropped the “red for danger” colour as of this edition, because we can now assume that the
countries considered off-limits to mining are the ones in the grey categories below. In other
words, all those nine are at least in with a chance of providing a good place for a bet on junior
mining company.
Preamble and explanations done, here come a few words on the nine main regions and a
couple on one other. I’m not doing great depth this edition though, more global coverage and
year-end reflections (plus the vestiges of vacation laziness don’t help). Onwards.
Chile: Internal National Political Stability up 1 point
In the last quarter of 2015 there was bloodletting in the mining workforce (even the near-
untouchable Codelco white collar sector saw wholesale pinkslipping), a growing government
corruption scandal around SQM and the lithium sector (there’s money to be had) and a lot of
introspection from leading players on how to confront the lower price deck for copper. All these
things were long overdue in Chile and what’s notable is how the institutional politics of the
country haven’t been affected, which points to Chile’s greatest strength and advantage over
just about anywhere else in LatAm. President Bachelet’s approval ratings are at lows but the
government doesn’t suddenly grind to a halt due to its effects.
We’re now seeing fruits of the industry re-think in Chile, such as lower costs and a new batch of
support programs for the industry including power cost subsidies and a new minimum price for
copper sales for small mining companies (U$2.38/lb if they sell the to State-run Enami),
designed to keep the sector afloat. As a result, we add a point back to Chile’s score and once
again underscore its Best Of Breed category in the region when mining is the subject.
Peru: Geopolitical Optics up 1 point
Always a tough one to gauge on a simple countrywide points score, because Peru’s micro-
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regional aspect makes one area hate mining while another will welcome the activity with open
arms. But overall the country deserves an extra point added because it’s quietly made progress
on key projects such as Las Bambas and the Cerro Verde expansion, as well as seeing
institutional changes such as a new one-stop bureaucratic process for permitting that has seen
permits start to be awarded more quickly, the type of thing that the industry grumbles about
until it goes away and then you hear nothing.
As noted in a couple of recent editions of The IKN Weekly, unlike many other countries we see
no big risk factor to add for the upcoming Presidential elections this year (round one April) as
all the main candidates read from the same pro-mining hymn sheet.
Mexico: Unchanged
I toyed with the idea of docking Mexico a point due to its reluctance to lessen the state burdens
on mining, the policy which has seen a new later of mine-gate royalties added at a bad point in
the cycle. The Mexico mining industry is up in arms about its onerous effect, but so far the
politicos haven’t done anything to relax the tax regime.
But overall I’m good about keeping the score where it is, because where it matters Mexico
allows its industry to get on and do the things it wants and needs to do. I’m also cautiously
optimistic about the Torex Gold (TXG.to) Guerrero risk re-rating, as the company has got to
first pour without any new incident of the type we saw last February.
Nicaragua: Unchanged
The quiet achiever, Nica continues on its “no news is good news” trajectory. We did see
protests and the denial of permits to the B2Gold El Pavon project in the North of the country
(Daniel Ortega’s wife active in the permit denial process), which was more serious than the
worker-related strike at the El Limon mine operation in October (also B2Gold), but the
circumstances of the El Pavon setback look location specific and extremely unlikely to be a new
trend of national anti-mine policy or government sentiment.
Guyana: Mining Culture down 1 point
Now part of the main list, thanks to the giant strides made in recent quarters and the successful
opening and ramping of the GUY.to Aurora mine operation. Guyana has shown itself to be keen
on promoting its formal mining industry and its desire to attract more FDI. However I am
bringing the overall country score down by one point because on due reflection I think I pushed
its mining culture score too far too quickly. Yes it has plenty of people who earn their food by
mining for gold, but the sector is still overwhelmingly artisan/informal/illegal and there’s a long
way to go before that body of people get to the stage where they’re ready for salary paycheck
type mine work.
Brazil: FDI Friendly down 1 point
That macro-political damage is baked into the Brazil score as of the last edition, we know that
the Petrobras corruption scandal has long arms and we know that there’s a long and rumbling
scandal scenario facing the Dilma government that may even end up with the President herself
eventually being impeached (though the timeline makes that look manageable in real terms).
So no changes due to any of that, but a point gets docked this edition for the Samarco Factor.
The tailings dams failure in November has firstly shed a very negative light on mega-mining in
the country and secondly has awoken the judiciary system in no uncertain terms, not a good
thing for any size of company in this most litigious of South American countries. The net effect
is to reduce Brazil’s attractiveness for future FDI and that’s why Brazil has fallen even further,
away from the green zone of solidly friendly countries in which is previously dwelt.
Argentina: FDI Friendly up 2 points, Geopolitical Optics up 2 points, Internal
National Political Stability down 1 point
Mauricio Macri won the election (my forecast going up in smoke, I remind you all for the last
time), a new neoliberal-based economic plan is in place and as we’ve noted in the past couple
of editions of The IKN Weekly, the people who run the mining industry there are happy with
9

what they see. All that’s good and as a result Argentina gets a net-three point re-rating on its
score, the highest by far of any LatAm state this quarter.
Two points get added to “FDI friendly”, mainly for the big and concrete change that’s taken
(taking) place, the quick move to relax currency controls. What that brings to mining is a
double bonus effect, first of cheaper labour costs in US Dollar terms (the official forex rate has
moved from roughly 10 Pesos to the Dollar to roughly 13) and secondly the potential for freer
access to the local financial markets, both in imports and exports. Another two points gets
added to the country score from “Geopolitical Optics”, as first the world considers Argentina as
suddenly “cheap” and second the general approval from the business world that it’s falling into
line and adopting more orthodox macroeconomic policies. Fair enough, and I’m sure Paul
Singer has a few bottles of very expensive champagne on ice, too.
But one point is lost from the “internal national political stability” score due to the “be careful
what you wish for” theory.
Dominican Republic: National Government Miner Friendly up 1 point.
Danilo Medina’s government continues to impress with its strongly pro-mining message and
now that Barrick Pueblo Viejo is established as one of the main sources of tax revenue in this
small and developing economy, it wants to see more projects moving forwards. This very pro-
mine message is tempered somewhat by significant anti-mining voices, such as the Catholic
church and its vocal/financial support of anti-mining groups. But overall the message is a good
one and those looking to tinycappers such as GoldQuest to make their 2016 shouldn’t be too
concerned about a sudden community backlash.
Colombia: Internal National Political Stability up 1 point
The last candidate country on the lost, Colombia (like Peru) is always a very difficult one to sum
up with a simple country-wide score but in this edition the pros outweigh the cons. We’ve seen
a significant permitting event happen when the AU/BTO Gramalote project received a major
environmental impact permit that will allow it to develop up to a construction decision. We’ve
also heard positive noises from the Continental Gold (CNL.to) sophists about a permitting track
that should be completed by the end of the first half of 2016, though with those guys seeing is
always believing (personal opinion: trust as far as you can throw).
On the national political front, the big risk issue continues to be the peace negotiations with the
FARC-EP terrorists and we’ve seen some biggish breakthroughs made in that long and slow
process. It’s obvious that President Santos wants a lasting deal as a legacy and if it comes off,
larger swathes of Colombia would be in-play as reasonable places to go mine exploring.
Potentially relevant countries
Ecuador: Community/Social Miner Friendly up one point, Internal National Political
Stability down 1 point
Ecuador, though off the main list, remains an interesting case study so a few words today. Back
in the Review of IKN320 (two episodes ago, end 2q15) I wrapped up the Ecuador commentary
with this:
“Consider that if LUG.to can't make a go of Fruta del Norte (and by that the
real test is return a share price win, we retailers have only that to gauge
with), nothing will work.”
We’re now in the period in which Lundin Gold (LUG.to) is supposed to come to its State burden
deal with the government of Ecuador and then move to raise its cash and build a mine. So far
we’ve heard from the government that the deal is close at hand (“December or January”), and
from the company which expects to announce something “in the first quarter of 2016”. Fair
enough, but this is a deal that needs to happen (and as mentioned recently, once it’s done we’ll
be able to get a better idea of what LUG is worth as a free-trading stock when it tries to raise
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its cash). In other news, the government gave us the big fanfare on the “start of Mirador” two
weeks ago, which was in effect the awarding of the environmental permit rather than the start
of construction. Local opposition to this project has always been strong (admittedly so has its
support, but that’s not what we’re about here) so it will be interesting to see how well it
manages to run its build-out phase. Ecuador is among the “potentially interesting” trio for a
reason, because it’s precisely that. But the emphasis must remain on “potentially” for the time
being.
Market Watching
I wasn’t watching the market screen much last week, infinite preference was given to my Kindle
screen and “The Crusades: The Authoritative History of the War for the Holy Land” by Thomas
Asbridge (8), which is a wonderful read and cannot be recommended too highly.
In other words, ‘Market Watching’ returns next weekend.
Conclusion
IKN347 is done, we end with a few bullet points:
• I wish you all a happy and prosperous new year. Let’s risk it all by putting some
investment thesis in hope and hoping that the year to come works better for the mining
sector than last year. Or the year before. Or (sigh) the year before that.
• Given a flat gold price, I’d expect a rebound next week from some of the more heavily
kicked names. With luck those will include BTO as its performance continues to be a
source of concern.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Otto
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/focus-delivers-bayovar-12-prefeasibility-133000820.html
(2) http://www.amazon.com/Crusades-Authoritative-History-Holy-Land-
ebook/dp/B003C2SP6E/ref=la_B001K8I21K_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1451848865&sr=1-1
11

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dic-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-ene-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-abr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-abr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-ago-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-abr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-ago-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2014
Closed in 2014 closed close price
Fortuna Silver FVI.to jan'14 C$2.80 23-dic-13 C$3.19 13.9% small ST trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to jan'14 C$2.06 07-jun-13 C$2.30 11.7% trading position finally closed
Network Expl. NET.v feb'14 C$0.01 22-jul-12 C$0.005 -50.0% position closed, did nothing
Tahoe Resources TAHO feb'14 U$13.10 08-abr-13 U$21.72 -65.8% short closed due to reality
Darwin Res DAR.v mar'14 C$0.10 14-jul-12 C$0.045 -55.0% tiny risk play dropped
B2Gold BTO.to mar'14 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.35 9.1% closed to free up capital
Pretium Res PVG mar'14 U$5.38 22-nov-13 U$6.50 -20.8% short closed as port longer
Gold Res Corp GORO may'14 U$5.07 26-ene-14 U$4.12 16.7% took profit
Bear Creek Min BCM.v may'14 C$1.63 23-mar-14 C$2.05 25.8% Took profit, sm near-term win
Eco Oro Min. EOM.to aug'14 C$0.48 22-sep-13 C$0.26 -45.8% sold small loser to make room
True Gold TGM.v sep'14 C$0.395 02-feb-14 C$0.41 3.8% M&A won't happen, sold
Santacruz Silver SCZ.v sep'14 C$1.04 26-ene-14 C$0.86 -17.3% silver/M&A spec, rel. small
Timmins Gold TGD nov'14 U$1.38 09-abr-14 U$0.99 -28.3% failed trade, sell, raise cash
Kinross Gold KGC nov'14 U$2.90 20-oct-14 U$2.15 -25.9% V small trade, didn't work, chau
Salazar Res SRL.v hold C$0.28 02-mar-14 C$0.145 -48.2% lost China sponsor
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2013
Closed in 2013 closed close price
USA Graphite USGT feb'13 U$0.93 08-ene-13 U$0.17 81.7% short tgt made/trade closed
Lachlan Star LSA.to feb'13 C$1.50 30-sep-12 C$0.95 -36.7% sold to reduce port risk
United Silver USC.to mar'13 C$0.21 28-oct-12 C$0.095 -54.8% small Ag sector trade, failed
Aurcana Corp AUN.v apr'13 C$1.07 11-nov-12 C$0.55 -48.6% closed on poor YE results
Gold Res Corp GORO apr'13 U$14.11 25-ene-13 U$9.38 33.5% short tgt made/trade closed
Marlin Gold MLN.v apr'13 C$0.075 10-feb-13 C$0.065 -13.3% closed trade
Bear Creek BCM.v may'13 C$2.58 01-abr-13 C$2.40 -7.0% near-term, time ran out
Lupaka Gold LPK.to may'13 C$1.12 23-oct-11 C$0.32 -71.4% towel thrown in
Tahoe Resources TAHO may'13 U$18.62 08-abr-13 U$14.70 21.1% took profit on ST short
OceanaGold OGC.to jun'13 C$3.03 16-sep-12 C$1.18 -61.1% sold on gold drop
IMPACT Silver IPT.v jun'13 C$1.14 13-ene-13 C$0.62 -45.6% sold on silver drop
Duran Ventures DRV.v jun'13 C$0.045 10-may-13 C$0.025 -44.4% ST trade never worked
Plata Latina PLA.v jun'13 C$0.79 10-abr-12 C$0.13 -83.5% closed
Bellhaven BHV.v jun'13 C$0.065 03-jun-13 C$0.12 84.6% closed ST trade
B2Gold BTO.to aug'13 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.44 12.1% sold 1/2 to raise cash
Colossus Min. CSI.to aug'13 C$0.72 24-jul-13 C$0.79 9.7% closed thru nerves on future
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Pretium Res PVG.to aug'13 C$8.20 11-jun-13 C$10.14 23.7% closed to raise cash
Bear Creek BCM.v sep'13 C$2.06 30-may-13 C$2.20 6.8% sold on pol risk decision
MAG Silver MVG oct'13 U$7.00 12-sep-13 U$5.62 19.6% near-term short
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'13 U$9.52 03-may-13 U$4.98 47.7% short tgt made, covered
AQM Copper AQM.v oct'13 C$0.31 16-oct-11 C$0.125 -59.7% closed failed trade
First Majestic AG nov'13 U$11.51 07-nov-13 U$10.50 8.8% v near term short, closed
Fortuna Silver FSM nov'13 U$4.00 07-nov-13 U$3.68 8.0% v near term short, closed
Primero PPP nov'13 U$5.70 07-nov-13 U$5.75 -0.9% v near term short, closed
Starcore Intl SAM.to nov'13 C$0.235 08-sep-13 C$0.17 -27.7% ST trade didn't work, sm loss
B2Gold BTO.to dec'13 C$2.22 28-nov-12 C$2.16 -2.7% closed ST trade to raise cash
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2012
Closed in 2012 closed close PPS
Soltoro SOL.v jan'12 C$0.87 07-nov-11 C$0.94 8.0% cash moved to BCM.v
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to feb'12 C$0.84 13-oct-10 C$0.98 16.7% trade closed on ELG.v offer
Minefinders MFN feb'12 U$11.68 17-nov-11 U$14.80 26.7% target made, trade closed
Iron Creek IRN.v mar'12 C$0.58 26-sep-10 C$0.31 -46.6% time up on small bad trade
U.S. Silver USA.to apr'12 C$2.18 15-mar-12 C$1.86 -14.7% ST trade no good, cut loss
Augusta Res. AZC.to may'12 C$3.10 29-jan-12 C$2.07 -33.2% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Bellhaven BHV.v may'12 C$0.50 22-sep-10 C$0.28 -44.0% new mgmt not impressive
Zincore Metals ZNC.to may'12 C$0.325 29-jul-11 C$0.17 -47.7% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Soltoro SOL.v may'12 C$0.70 18-mar-11 C$0.41 -41.4% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
U.S. Silver USA.to aug'12 C$1.78 27-jul-12 C$1.36 -23.6% fail ST trade close pre split
Estrella Gold EST.v aug'12 C$0.91 27-mar-11 C$0.14 -84.6% Closed on port realignment
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'12 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.32 397.2% sell call $6.17/ Mar25
Strait Minerals SRD.v oct'12 C$0.125 09-dec-11 C$0.12 -4.0% closing coverage til FY13
Sunward Res SWD.to oct'12 C$1.47 13-mar-11 C$1.21 -17.7% sold, took loss
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'12 U$21.47 09-sep-12 U$17.40 19.0% Short trade closed
Yellowhead Min. YMI.to nov'12 C$1.00 01-apr-12 C$0.63 -37.0% sold, took loss
Primero Mining PPP nov'12 U$7.26 07-oct-12 U$6.73 7.3% Short trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v nov'12 C$3.38 07-nov-11 C$3.72 10.1% Took small profit
Vena Resources VEM.to dec'12 C$0.70 31-may-09 C$0.18 -74.3% Failed trade (caps F)
Galway Res GWY.v dec'12 C$2.19 24-nov-12 C$2.30 5.0% closed good ST arb trade
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2011
Closed in 2011 closed close PPS
Sunward Res SWD.v jan'11 C$1.05 21-nov-10 C$1.63 55.2% target made, trade closed
Serengeti Res SIR.v mar'11 C$0.245 05-dec-10 C$0.285 16.3% sold pre-tgt, ST trade fail
Fronteer Gold FRG apr'11 U$2.37 03-may-09 U$15.24 543.0% buyout, trade closed
Minefinders MFN apr'11 U$9.09 07-nov-10 U$16.89 85.8% target made, trade closed
Metalline Min. MMG may'11 U$1.04 26-jan-11 U$0.89 -14.4% exit, resource disappointed
Peregrine Met PGM.to jul'11 C$0.87 06-mar-11 C$2.60 198.9% buyout offer, closed
Dynasty Metals DMM.to jul'11 C$4.20 03-may-09 C$2.85 -32.1% Sold. Fail. Move on.
Aura Silver AUU.v aug'11 C$0.22 13-oct-10 C$0.16 -36.4% Bad pick. Take loss
U.S. Silver USA.v aug'11 C$0.52 26-jan-11 C$0.71 36.5% closed to make room
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'11 C$2.80 12-may-11 C$4.27 52.5% target made, trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v sep'11 C$3.80 27-may-11 C$4.17 9.7% macro sell call victim
Minefinders MFN sep'11 U$14.70 10-aug-11 U$15.15 3.1% macro sell call victim
Great Panther GPR.to sep'11 C$3.03 22-aug-11 C$2.64 -12.9% macro sell call victim
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'11 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.36 400.9% sold 20%, macro sell call
Focus Ventures FCV.v nov'11 C$0.40 20-apr-10 C$0.20 -50.0% cut losses, bad trade
Regulus Res. REG.v dec'11 C$1.17 14-aug-11 C$0.52 -55.6% cut on news of poor 43-101
2009 and 2010 closed positions in appendices below
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2010
Closed in 2010 closed close PPS
B2Gold Corp BTO.to Jan'10 C$0.88 08-nov-09 C$1.49 68.2% target made, trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v Jan'10 C$0.18 23-aug-09 C$0.40 122.2% target made, trade closed
MAG Silver MVG mar'10 U$5.60 23-nov-09 U$7.28 30.0% closed in pdac week
Riverside Res RRI.v mar'10 C$0.435 20-sep-09 C$0.60 37.9% closed in pdac week
Amarillo Gold AGC.v mar'10 C$0.81 31-may-09 C$0.70 -13.6% closed in pdac week
B2Gold Corp BTO.to apr'10 C$1.24 18-feb-10 C$1.50 21.0% target made, trade closed
Lumina Copper LCC.v apr'10 C$0.84 14-jun-09 C$1.55 51.2% total position now sold
Troy Resources TRY.to may'10 C$1.10 03-may-09 C$2.25 104.5% sold on negative results
AuEx Ventures XAU.to may'10 C$2.51 24-may-09 C$3.38 34.7% trade closed
Nevada Copper NCU.to jun'10 C$3.27 14-mar-10 C$2.03 -37.9% need to lower Cu exposure
Carpathian Gold CPN.to jun'10 C$0.39 14-mar-10 C$0.35 -10.3% too exposed to cap raising
Amerix PM Corp APM.v jun'10 C$0.065 08-nov-09 C$0.05 -23.1% victim of macro bear
Antares Minerals ANM.v jun'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$2.10 47.9% sold half
Vena Resources VEM.to jun'10 C$0.37 31-may-09 C$0.23 -37.8% sold half
Minera Andes MAI.to sep'10 C$0.75 28-jul-10 C$0.95 26.7% ST trade closed
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to sep'10 C$0.52 01-aug-10 C$0.75 44.2% target made, trade closed
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'10 C$1.45 25-may-10 C$2.01 34.5% target made, trade closed
Blue Sky Uran BSK.v oct'10 C$0.41 19-may-10 C$0.22 -46.3% v small v bad trade closed
Dia Bras Expl DIB.v oct'10 C$0.14 30-aug-09 C$0.35 150.0% target made, trade closed
S. Amer. Silver SAC.to nov'10 C$1.38 24-oct-10 C$1.60 -15.9% loss on short, small fail
Ventana Gold VEN.to nov'10 C$7.92 27-jun-10 C$13.51 70.6% trade closed on buyout
Lumina Copper LCC.v nov'10 C$1.42 11-aug-10 C$3.65 157.0% trade closed
Antares Minerals ANM.v dec'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$8.40 491.5% trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.v dec'10 C$0.69 23-mar-10 C$2.16 213.0% trade closed
Coro Mining COP.to dec'10 C$0.585 03-oct-10 C$1.24 112.0% target made, trade closed
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2009
Closed positions closed closing PPS
Cardero Res CDY/CDU.to May'09 U$1.20 03-May-09 U$0.87 -27.5% sold on negative news
Eastmain Res. ER.to May'09 C$1.04 06-May-09 C$1.315 26.4% trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v May'09 C$0.165 03-May-09 C$0.235 42.4% trade closed
Latin Amer Min. LAT.v May'09 C$0.12 03-May-09 C$0.158 29.2% trade closed
Aquiline Res. AQI.to July'09 C$2.03 16-Jun-09 C$1.68 -17.2% took loss, bad timing
Chariot Resources CHD.to Aug'09 C$0.20 12-Jul-09 C$0.415 107.5% trade closed
Castle Gold CSG.v Sep'09 C$0.64 02-Aug-09 C$0.60 -6.3% ST trade didn't work out
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to Sep'09 C$2.30 12-May-09 C$4.50 95.7% profit taken
Los Andes Copper LA.v Sep'09 C$0.09 21-Jun-09 C$0.09 0% trade closed
Pediment Gold PEZ.to Oct'09 C$0.80 09-Aug-09 C$1.00 25.0% trade closed
Minera Andes MAI.to Oct'09 C$0.68 03-May-09 C$0.71 4.4% too much bad news
Dynasty Metals DMM.to Nov'09 C$4.18 03-May-09 C$6.01 43.8% half sold
Rusoro Mining RML.v Nov'09 C$0.55 03-May-09 C$0.57 3.6% underperformed
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
14