IKN #343Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 343, December 6th 2015
Contents
This Week: Confessions of a yellowbelly.
Fundamental Analysis: Like the market? What to own first.
Stocks to Follow: Overview, B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to), McEwen Mining (MUX), Starcore Intl
(SAM.to), Phoscan Chemicals (FOS.to), Lake Shore Gold (LSG.to), Atacama Pacific (ATM.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Catalyst Copper (CCY.v), NGEx Resources (NGQ.to).
Low Cost Producer Basket: Overview, Goldcorp (GG), Buenaventura (BVN).
Regional Politics: Argentina Santa Cruz: The “mining tax” is voted down, Argentina: The
Macri mining team, Peru: Five candidates do CADE, Moises Naim does CADE, More Peru: Peru’s
forex versus the dollar, Chile: More on the country’s rise in mining unemployment, Ecuador:
Cordova does Mines & Money, Political risk increases for Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to),
Colombia awards an environmental permit to an open-pit project.
Market Watching: Minera IRL update, Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) will lose its Santa Ana
tribunal case, Volcan (VOLCABC1) to increase zinc production in 2016, HudBay Minerals
(HBM.to) (HBM): Garofalo joins Goldcorp (GG), Continental Gold (CNL.to): A day in the life,
Sunridge Gold (SGC.v) update.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Confessions of a yellowbelly
At 1:15pm on Thursday December 3rd I found myself at the front page of Yahoo! Finance and
on seeing this, I took the screenshot you see here (1).
Gold slumps to lows, well fine. On what? On Yellen comments that the US rates are going up?
With the cool gold bling photo? Oh yeah I’ll take the over on this one. As we’ve pointed out on
these pages already the whole Fed’s raising move is already baked into gold like a mince pie at
Christmas so if 1) Yahoo Finance is reporting 2) a spec downmove on gold that is attributed to
3) something that’s already factored into the gold price, it’s tough to think of a better fade.
1

And sure enough, come the in-line jobs numbers the next day gold got tired of going down.
Which is all well and good, but as I’m in glass-half-empty mode as I write these words on
Saturday evening and prefer not to think about the way I’ve held through on long positions that
made good on Friday...
1) I didn’t add to any long position or buy any gold or PM exposure on that “obvious
fade”.
2) I’ve stared at New Gold (NGD.to) (NGD) more times than I care to remember these last
couple of weeks without buying any, only to watch it lead the front rank of springers on
Friday.
3) Lake Shore Gold (LSG) (LSG.to) was a screaming buy at anything under a Loonie, I said
as much last weekend and there was all the time in the world to get more if I’d wanted
to last week. But no.
4) Et cetera.
And that’s because I’m too damned chicken to play my own near-term trade ideas these days,
hunkered down and protecting the unexposed cash left in the port as I am. A braver man than
I would have waded in, I didn’t and missed a couple of juicy trades as a result. I will simply and
meekly remain net long PMs and be done.
Shifting gears slightly in one of these typical intro pot pourris, Friday’s pop or not I’ve again
been witness to a lot of negativity as regards the gold price this week and my best example the
repeated “we’re going under $1k” call from the mouth of a highly regarded mining guy in the
Peruvian sector as we lunched on Wednesday. I’m not so sure and the feeling I picked up last
week is that of tired bears, there seems to be so little reason to be long gold these days that
the trade is already lopsided and the short-squeeze can happen on an excuse. That, I think, is
what we saw on Friday and I’m hoping I’m wrong on that, because if right it will be mean
rebound has short legs. Harrumphing done with, let’s move to practical matters.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Like the market? What to own first
When the market ticks up, one of the subjects I most often field is the “what to own first?”
question. It’s usually based around names on the ‘Stocks to Follow’ list and even though that’s
a portfolio that’s deliberately kept to a maximum number (normally 15) rather than some of the
mega-list ports promoted by some brokerage types or market soothsayers that I could mention,
2

there’s still more than enough on the list to get the, “Yeah but which ONE, Mark?” inquiry.
With this in mind, and to put at least one small something into this week’s ‘Fundies...’ section
(nothing company-specific came to mind at all) here are are updated thoughts on what I think
you should own first (and last), based around but not exclusive to the junior stocks I currently
hold myself via the “Stocks to Follow” list. There are four things I’d most consider today:
1) Three little words: Profitable. Gold. Producer.
Two of the three words you want to see in a prospective investment in mining are easy enough
to sum up. You do not want to own a company that depends on the goodwill of capital market
financiers for their next year’s worth of treasury as those people have no good will, Christmas
season or not. Ho ho ho. But you don’t just want a producer, you want your play to be a
profitable producer because a) producers currently rule explorers and it’s going to stay that way
until a real price recovery sets in for gold, then b) there’s little point in concentrating on the
producer sub-sector then choosing one that’s not cash self-sufficient, because that’s the whole
point of owning one today. Companies that produce and have cash flow are immediately more
attractive than ones exposed to the horrors of needing to go to market, showing their weakness
to the world and begging for cash (at any price? Certainly sir!). Share prices get hammered
both before and after a 2015 financing event, everyone with money wants their cheap financing
(with half/full warrant on top, por supuesto bien sur), the handicap to retail equity traders
looking to buy low and sell high is plain. Your preferred vehicle doesn’t have to be making tons
of money, what it needs to do in these lean times is to show it can continue indefinitely.
But alongside those two, the reco is to go for gold
and gold alone. I’ve been a promoter of owning
gold-exposure over any other metal type for junior
mining companies for quite a while and the
evidence of 2015 shows that’s been the right call
(or if you prefer, the least wrong call because
maybe it would have been better to avoid the whole
mining world and go for time deposits or
something). By comparing the main PM metal to
other traded metals over the last two years,
perspective is gained.
Gold against silver (above right) is a well-worn
story, as even in 2014 the silverbugs were
complaining that 65X and 70X did no justice to the
metal’s future. Now at 75X, rare is the silver (or
mainly silver) play that returns meaningful profits.
TAHO, FVI (I suppose...just) and that’s about it.
Gold’s run against “other precious” (right) has been
even more acute, as noted by the gold vs platinum
ratio chart (right). PGMs aren’t commonly mined in
scalable quantities in my region of preference
anyway (LatAm), plus alternative metals (niobium,
indium, titanium), i.e. metals that aren’t free
fungible commodity vehicles on the world market
that enjoy reasonably transparent price discovery,
tend to come with operating margins that can
disappear at the whim of a big and not easily
understandable market price move. When a project
has fuzzy looking operational fundies, I’m leery to
say the least. I care little of these.
3

As for the industrial metals, Doctor Copper is the key and this chart shows the same sort of
deterioration. An extra factor to add to the
copper space (not perhaps the same as zinc,
lead, tin etc), though one that also applies to
iron ore and alu, is the scale of copper projects.
We’re moving inexorably towards “go big or go
home” in the copper space, small and medium-
sized producers are getting squeezed out by
mega-pit mining operations that run at a much
lower average cash cost and can afford to
accelerate production while others try to cut
corners. This runs against the nature of the
junior and even mid-scale operations such as
HudBay, Capstone and Copper Mountain have
suffered enormously this year.
2) Balance sheet
I’ve banged on about this subject too many times, so it’s not going to be a big segment today.
But it’s still vitally important that your company is in decent balance sheet shape because of
one of the words used in the section above, “indefinitely”. You can have a company with ops
that tick over then fine, but if the balance sheet is in a mess it takes away the indefinite aspect
and makes it as vulnerable as a company making a loss and with little left in the bank (see
GCM.to, TCM.to, CS.to and (dare I say it?) DGC.to). A company that can show strength here is
one that will not attract the vultures and short players, make sure there’s little to be paid back
and a decent liquidity position in your target company before you pull the trigger.
3) Be liquid
I own a range of stocks on the list below, from over a billion market cap to several at less than
ten million. I went into each trade for their own specific reasons and with eyes wide open, plus
the fact I still own them today means I’m at least reaonably comfortable about bieng long each
name. But when it comes to December 2015 and advice on what to own for other people, once
“profitable gold producer” is out the way the next criterium is “got to trade volume”. This isn’t a
market in which you get trapped into a low liquidity position because if the tide goes out
(again) you’ll have to pay through the nose to exit anything that doesn’t have an established
market. Bottom line here is simple: Buy something you can sell easily.
4) May your project offer margin
Although my preference today is towards producers, the better class of explorecos with a
quality project on their books is certainly not out of the question but what you need is good
margin on the project, the type that offers plenty of leeway if the market takes another turn
South. That usually translates as “look for high grade mineralization” when it’s an exploreco or
growth play you’re considering, but it can also mean a cheap op-ex that will let a lower grade
mine operate very cheaply (and look no futher than Rio Alto/Tahoe at La Arena for a great
example of what you can achieve with 0.5 g/t Au rock). This isn’t the time for skinny margins or
large-scale capex projects with barriers to entry that are too high.
So to sum up what I’m looking for today, any trade in junior mining you’re considering needs
to have as many of these things in its favour in order to rise first and fast with any new market
momentum:
• Gold (other metals will move, gold will move first)
• Profitable producer (possible alternative, a high quality (grade?) project owner)
• Good balance sheet (not asking for perfection, but for a minimum worry situation)
4

• Good market volume (that will let you exit if things turn down again)
As for my current stable of stocks in the portfolio below, here’s how I’d rank them, top to
bottom, as at today. This is a “snapshot” view which takes today and its variables as stand into
the calculation, which includes the current price deck.
A: The buyables (NB: In order of preference)
1) Lake Shore Gold
2) B2Gold
3) Teranga Gold
4) McEwen Mining
5) True Gold
6) Dalradian Resources
B: The risky shots
1) Starcore Intl
2) Sandspring Resources
3) Focus Ventures
C: Ones I hold but won’t add to until the market really changes direction
1) Atacama
2) Phoscan
3) Lara
4) Regulus
And yes, as things stand this weekend I’d pick LSG over my own Top Pick, BTO (where if you
remember the jury is still out, even though signals are beginning to go positive). It’s worth
noting that to group A, the buyables, I’d also quickly add names I don’t currently own but have
the itch to, such as New Gold or Buenaventura. I’d be open to suggestions on similar
companies too, but always wary about overpaying for a decent name (e.g. I wouldn’t pay up
for Agnico Eagle or Richmont today, neither has value to peers). And as for group B, I’ve been
playing around with a few names that I’d add given the chance with Almaden up there in the
front row.
Stocks to Follow
When your Top Pick moves by 18.4% on the week, it doesn’t really matter what the others do
because you’ve had a good week. But as B2Gold’s move was followed by gains in all the main
positions except the disappointing Dalradian (DNA down 3c), it was a very good week, not just
a good one. Yes there were weekly losers in the less liquid issues (SSP.v, ATM.v, DNA.to,
REG.v) and a couple of UNCH as well (IRL.to suspended, FCV.v), but the eight winners (BTO.to,
LSG.to, TGZ.to, MUX, SAM.to, FOS.to, LRA.v, TGM.v) include all the gold producers we own and
reco, so no worries.
We currently have 14 open positions in our 'Stocks to Follow' list, one below our self-imposed
15 name maximum. Three trade in the green, one is unchanged since conception, ten are in
the red. And I still suck, I don’t care what Mike thinks. I should have been reco’ing you into
Snapchat or Twitter or Tinder or something, not these damned mining companies.
5

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICK
B2Gold BTO.to STR buy C$2.17 12-sep-14 C$1.67 -23.0% Top Pick, 4q15 shaping v well
Metals Producers (in current order of preference)
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to STR buy C$1.07 07-apr-15 C$1.08 0.1% M&A tgt 1.50 tgt
Teranga Gold TGZ.to STR buy C$0.55 15-feb-15 C$0.52 -5.5% v cheap under under 60c
McEwen Mining MUX buy U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$0.95 -12.8% looking cheap again
Starcore Intl SAM.to buy C$0.12 10-jan-15 C$0.08 -33.3% Also "land grab", tgt 19c
Land Grab Stocks (in current order of preference)
Phoscan Chem FOS.to hold C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.28 0.0% now under offer
Sandspring Res SSP.v spec buy C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.15 -23.7% Risky small play, 30c tgt
Atacama Pacific ATM.v hold C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.145 -23.7% Spec buy, cheap adv proj
Lara Expl. LRA.v hold C$1.15 08-apr-12 C$0.225 -80.4% solid biz model, LT hold
Other Recommended Stocks (in current order of preference)
Dalradian Res DNA.to STR buy C$0.64 27-oct-13 C$0.66 3.1% New tgt 95c to $1 Sep 20
Minera IRL IRL.to Susp. C$0.195 22-jul-12 C$0.075 -61.5% Trading suspended
True Gold TGM.v spec buy C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.245 36.1% 25c to 30c sell price tgt
Focus Ventures FCV.v hold C$0.23 01-jul-12 C$0.12 -47.8% tgt 50c, phosphate great value
Regulus Res REG.v hold C$0.30 06-apr-15 C$0.19 -36.7% Comm. Rels slow progress
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'14 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'14 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'14 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'14 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 closed positions in appendices below
Now for some notes on current basket stocks.
B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to): Yes, thank you. Thank you very much, about bleedin’ time.
6

BTO has always been a volume monster when it makes significant moves and last week was a
welcome return. My timing sucks, I know that too well, I bought into BTO and promoted it to
Top Pick way too early in 2015 because I liked how it was shaping in 3q15 and 4q15. Here we
are in the very last month of the year and its prospects are finally getting love to its share price.
McEwen Mining (MUX): No news from MUX so it just went with the flow, but a good week all
the same as we once again approach the $1 barrier. The theory as posited last weekend is that
with Rob McEwen determined to do anything to avoid NYSE de-listing, including a reverse split
if necessary, the barrier at $1 should now be weaker. We’ll see on that.
Starcore Intl (SAM.to): Up a tad on the week but what SAM didn’t do is of more concern to
me than what it did; it didn’t do much volume. This is the main reason SAM comes well down in
my list of “what to own” above and until the market is looser, it’s a hold only.
Phoscan Chemicals (FOS.to): Not even 24 hours after I wrote these words in IKN342 to end
the comment on FOS...
I just wish the management would do something with its cash pile instead of
just playing the forex market.
...the company finally made its move and announced on Monday (2) that it had come to a deal
with a to-date privately held Canadian O&G play, Petrus Resources, in which the O&G company
reverse mergers into FOS and goes public at a price which implies a 33.5c/share mark on its
cash position. FOS shareholders also receive a spin-out company which contains the assets held
by the current FOS, mainly the Martinson phosphate thing that FOS has already written down,
plus a couple of other early stage land holdings and $0.8m in cash.
I knew nothing about Petrus before the deal and don’t know much now either, but this report
(3) from the Calgary Herald on Monday outlines the deal, gets quotes and gives the rationale of
the O&G company, too. In a nutshell they think we’re at the bottom of the cycle, it’s time to
raise capital, go public and dive into the hydrocarbons space more deeply and this reverse
merger provides an immediate lift on the capital raise they’re looking to make in order to have a
war chest treasury with which to do deals.
On hearing the news, particularly on the 33.5c/share cash mark-up from a private company
which was having its share valuation franked by a concurrent capital raise backed by its main
sponsors, then pencilling in “a penny or
two” for the spinco valuation, I was pretty
happy with the deal and thought 35c was a
reasonable place for the eventual deal
closure price. Therefore when FOS.to
opened at 30c I wasn’t surprised in the
least, but it’s then that the surprises started
and they weren’t pleasant ones, either.
I won’t mince words, I’m a dumbo on O&G
and don’t know the space at all let alone
private companies working Alberta. But
how can this cash deal be priced at 27c and
28c by the market? Is faith in the to-be-
public Petrus discounted by as much as
20% already, just because it’s a bear market? I’m bemused and disappointed by the reaction to
the FOS deal, once again that feeling of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory waves over
me. It’s been one of those years, I suppose.
And so to the call on the position, which is to hold through a while longer. It may be
because of a washout effect and the news, which gave long-suffering holders a liquidity event
7

into which they could dump and take cash. So I see no reason to sell yet and the arb on the
apparent price of FOS, assuming the deal closes correctly, is way to wide to ignore right now.
On the other hand I’m not here to play the oil and gas space and I will sell this small position
soon enough on this news, as long as a reasonable out is given. And for me 28c is nobody’s
idea of a reasonable out under the 35c valuation circumstances, what with the special set in the
near future of January 21st. To much arb, too little time. All very perplexing.
To sum up, this news sounded great, right up to the moment the trading halt came off the
stock and Mr. Market passed its verdict which still has me bemused. Either Stephen Case of
FOS has got it all wrong and failed to find a decent investment for the company’s cash after
(literally) all these years, or the market is severely undervaluing the eventual reverse-merged
company. If it’s the former, why doesn’t FOS simply wind up and distribute from here?
Lake Shore Gold (LSG.to): Last week I rounded off by using “an absolute steal” about LSG at
under a Loonie. Not only did it stay under C$1.00
for three and a half days, but you could have got all
the 95c that your heart desired on Tuesday.
Me being yellowbelly, just watched.
It’s still my idea of the one to own right now (even
taking into account my personal Top Pick of
B2Gold) and that’s after it rushed back up to $1.08
on Friday. Garofalo’s first move at Goldcorp,
perhaps? I certainly can’t se GG wading in to buy
the bigger fish Detour any longer, not in the new
guy’s first year.
Atacama Pacific (ATM.v): After the 16.7% gain of the week before last as reporte din
IKN343 comes the near-equal and opposite 17.1% this week, both up and down on low low
volumes. This stock has no direction as yet and is only reacting to a bid/ask you can drive a
truck through. I place as little import in the drop this weekend as the rise last weekend, until
we have real news ATM will drift.
The Copper Basket
After forty-nine weeks of 2015, The Copper Basket is showing a 41.18% loss to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/15 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Reservoir Min. RMC.v 3.96 47.55 194.48 4.09 3.3%
2 Capstone Min. CS.to 2.03 381.95 137.50 0.36 -82.3%
3 NGEx Resources NGQ.to 1.17 187.71 116.38 0.62 -47.0%
4 Nevada Copper NCU.to 1.65 80.5 53.13 0.66 -60.0%
5 Copper Fox CUU.v 0.135 402.96 50.37 0.125 -7.4%
6 Hot Chili Ltd HCH.ax 0.16 333.11 41.64 0.125 -21.9%
7 Western Copper WRN.to 0.68 93.68 33.26 0.355 -47.8%
8 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.27 173.65 30.39 0.175 -35.2%
9 Panoro Minerals PML.v 0.295 220.64 28.68 0.13 -55.9%
10 NovaCopper NCQ.to 0.58 60.15 27.97 0.465 -19.8%
11 Regulus Res REG.v 0.35 56.39 10.71 0.19 -45.7%
12 Metminco MNC.ax 0.008 2650 10.60 0.004 -50.0%
13 AQM Copper AQM.v 0.06 141 4.94 0.035 -41.7%
14 Catalyst Copper CCY.v 0.305 31.41 4.71 0.15 -50.8%
15 Coro Mining COP.to 0.045 159.37 3.19 0.02 -55.6%
NB: HCH.ax & MNC.ax priced in AUD$, rest CAD$ Portfolio avg -41.18%
8

Another big drop for the basket, down 2.74% despite gold’s good performance and we’re now
down under the 40% barrier for the first time,
5% The Copper Basket 2015, weekly evolution
a woeful performance for 2015. There were
0%
three stocks that made gains (OML.v, WRN.to, -5%
NCQ.to) and another four unchanged on the -10%
-15%
week (MNC.ax, AQM.v, COP.to, CCY.v) which
-20%
means eight were losers (CS.to, NGQ.to, -25%
-30%
RMC.v, NCU.to, CUU.v, ARG.to, HCH.ax,
-35%
REG.v) and in among those were some big -40%
losers, such as NGEx Resources (NGQ.to down -45%
-50%
19.5%), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to down
12.5%), Nevada Copper (NCU.to down
12.0%) and Copper Fox (CUU.v down 10.7%).
As for copper at market, it fiddled around the
$2.10/lb level without marking a new direction or
seriously threatening to go under $2/lb. Therefore
this chart with the dailies is a better visual and shows
the new level of consolidation where we are (or
thereabouts).
As for copper price commentary, I’ll leave that this
week to president of Antofagasta (ANTO.L), Diego
Hernández who on Thursday said the following (4)
during ceremony with Barrick last week as ABX
officially handed over 50% ownership and operator
keys to its Zaldivar operation in Chile to buyer ANTO:
“We are convinced that the demand for
copper will continue to grow in the next few
years, though at a lower rate of growth”.
“Our obligation now is to adjust our operations so that they remain
competitive in the new market reality.”
“The market is at a low price level and will stay that way for a longer period
than experts originally estimated, even longer than 2017”.
And with those words, ANTO CEO Iván Arriagada announced a program at ANTO designed to
shave $400m per year from costs (5). In other words, capital spent on Zaldivar now means lay-
offs at other units. Now for the regular end-month check up on the warehouse stock trends,
using the two standard charts:
The change is both overall and inside the three-cornered system. LME has under 50% of world
9
ht4naj ht81 ts1bef ht51 ts1ram ht51 ht92 ht21 ht62 ht01 ht42 ht7nuj ts12 ht5luj ht91 dn2gua ht61 ht03 ht31 ht72 ht11 ht52 ht8 dn22 ht6ceD
source: IKN calcs
Copper inventories, per month, 2012 to date
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
21.naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 31.naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 41.naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 51.naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von
Mt Cu Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
LME Shanghai Comex 80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
source: Cochilco
21.naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 31.naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 41.naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 51.naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von
LME Shanghai Comex
source: Cochilco

official stocks, which is a rarity. Meanwhile, the Comex number has risen to 14.02% and that’s
as high as it’s been since The IKN Weekly started tracking the inventory numbers in 2012.
That’s interesting.
Now our regular weekly warehouse comment section:
• Last week’s tide change is backed up by this week’s warehouse data, as overall world
copper stocks in the official futures market warehouses dropped by 19,631 metric
tonnes (MT) (-4.0%) to finish the weel at 477,053mt.
• Yet again, the lion’s share of that downmove come from the SHFE. Shanghai stocks
dropped by 14,630mt (-7.8%) to close at 172,522mt and the rumours that did the
rounds last week about the Chinese government being buyers of the slack get a
fundamental boost.
• LME followed suit from last week with its own more modest reduction in stocks, this
week down 5,725mt (-2.4%) to close at 237,625mt. The second week running where
SHFE and LME fall, there’s no sign of the arbitrage witnessed in the Northern autumn.
• Comex rose again, but this time the adjustment was a slight 724mt (+1.1%), rather
than the chunky upmoves we’ve been used to in the past few weeks. Comex
warehouses hold 66,906mt this weekend.
Here's the Shanghai-only Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014/2015
tracker chart, which is the
260000
great visual on the reversal of
240000
stocks. We rushed up to the 220000
200k number by November, 200000
180000
but that wasn’t broken and
160000
will have to wait until 2016 140000
now (probably). 120000
100000
80000
60000
Now for notes on a couple of
basket stocks:
NGEx Resources (NGQ.to): The reversal in NGQ was almost as violent as its surge of the
week before and you have to wonder how the
people who bought in on the news at over 90c are
feeling today.
In fact, everyone who bought the week before last
and held the trade is now underwater, as the
candlestick Year To Date chart demonstrates. The
chances that NGQ is about to announce a
financing are close to 100%, in my book. I repeat
last week’s message: The Filo de Sol NR of a
couple weeks ago was fundamentaly very sound,
but there’s no reason to pile in here yet.
Watching.
Nevada Copper (NCU.to): I’d like to remind you all of the upbeat message on project
financing that NCU gave to the world on September 30th 2015 right here (6). Your author’s
highlights.
10
31'13ceD ht91 ht9 dn2ram dr32 ht31 ht4yam ht52 ht51 ht6yluj ht72 ht71 ht7 ht82 ht91 ht9 ht03 ts12 ht11 ts1bef dn22 ht51 ht5rpa ht62 ht71 ht7nuj ht82 ht91 ht9 ht03 ht02 ht11 ts1von dn22
Mt Cu
source: Cochilco

Now that the major permitting hurdle is behind us, Nevada Copper believes that it is
the appropriate time to re-engage on the financing front. With a consensus that
copper prices are expected to rise over the next three years, we will accelerate
discussions in order to position the Project for a 2018 production start. Financing
discussions may take the form of joint venture partnership; project bank debt with, or
without, associated offtake; EPCM contracts with offtake provisions that bring
associated low-cost Export Credit Agency (ECA) financing; and combinations of the
foregoing. These discussions are currently underway and, as a fully-permitted large
copper project in Nevada, we also have interest from the corporate mining sector.
Since then we’ve had 1) not a word on any financing deal and 2) a share price, which had
already dumped by 50% to 95c from its $1.90+ highs in May/June, doing this (versus GDXJ):
Nothing there that Bonifacio doesn’t deserve. Blame the copper price if you must.
The Low Cost Producer Basket
After 49 weeks, the 2015 Low Cost Producer Basket is showing a 17.09% loss to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/15 Shares out Mkt Cap (Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 18.90 528.08 10.81 20.47 8.3%
2 Goldcorp GG 18.52 830 10.57 12.74 -31.2%
3 Barrick ABX 10.75 1164.67 9.42 8.09 -24.7%
4 Franco Nevada FNV 49.19 156.5 7.96 50.85 3.4%
5 Agnico Eagle AEM 24.89 214.12 6.24 29.12 17.0%
6 Silver Wheaton SLW 20.33 403.75 5.64 13.98 -31.2%
7 Kinross KGC 2.82 1146.2 2.44 2.13 -24.5%
8 Buenaventura BVN 9.56 254.19 1.27 5.01 -47.6%
9 B2Gold BTG 1.62 926.68 1.16 1.25 -22.6%
10 Pan American PAAS 9.20 151.64 1.15 7.59 -17.5%
all prices in U$, using NYSE ticker prices Portfolio avg -17.09%
A face-rip rally for our basket, up 9% from this time last week and all components registered
gains. Top mover was Newmont (NEM), up 17.7% and due to that is now the world’s biggest
freely traded gold mining company, above Goldcorp for the first time in quite a while (though
China’s Zijin is still the biggest in strict terms). In fact there were double figure percentage
gains for all the basket stocks bar Buenaventura (+6.6%) and Franco Nevada (+7.5%) and
even in those two you’re unlikely to get many compliants from longs about the week.
Merry Christmas, so much for tax-loss selling.
11

The Low Cost Producer Basket: Weekly performance
30% and comparative to GDX control
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
12
ts13ceD ht11 ht52 ht8 dr42 ht8 dr32 ht5rpa ht91 dr3yam ht71 ts13 ht41 ht82 ht21 ht62 ht9 dr32 ht6peS ht02 ht4tco ht81 ts1von ht51 ht92
basket
gdx control
source: Google Finance, IKN calcs
Having eight of ten stocks with 10%+ gains helped the basket stretch its lead to 2.17% over
the GDX benchmark, which also did well on the week of course but has weightings to consider.
Low Cost Basket: Percentage difference between
3.0% basket and GDX control, 2014
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
ts13ceD ht11 ht52 ht8 dr42 ht8 dr32 ht5rpa ht91 dr3yam ht71 ts13 ht41 ht82 ht21 ht62 ht9 dr32 ht6peS ht02 ht4tco ht81 ts1von ht51 ht92
|
source: ikn calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq data
Goldcorp (GG): Post-bell Friday, Goldcorp announced changes at the very top of its
organization as Chuck Jeannes announced his retirement as well as his succesor, David
Garofalo of HudBay (HBM). It was therefore ironic to hear Garofalo, in his first press comments
on being announced, saying (to Global Mining Observer (7)) that he was, “honored to be
entrusted with the leadership of the largest gold company in the world”. Because even if we
leave aside Zijin it’s not even the biggest freely traded gold company in the world this weekend,
thanks to the move that Newmont put in.
Maybe Garofalo skipped the company induction course.
Buenaventura (BVN): BVN went up like all the others, but is still crazycheap at U$5 (and a
penny) compared to historic quote prices and is being read badly by a market that thinks a
heavy debt load at BVN means that it’s in real financial trouble like any normal PM miner would
be. It’s not, this is the Benavides dynasty company and it’s not going anywhere.
I continue to marvel at the leverage potential of BVN, with 800k/year gold production selling at
a U$1.3Bn market cap, never min all the extra goodies that come with this stock such as 20%
of Cerro Verde. If gold didn’t just show another temporary spike on Friday and truly puts in a
recovery from today’s levels, BVN is far more likely to offer a straight double on a trade than
any of the bigger names (GG, NEM, ABX, AEM, FNV, you name it).
Regional politics
Argentina Santa Cruz: The “mining tax” is voted down
Back in 2013, the province of Santa Cruz caused a ruckus in its mining sector by creating the
“Impuesto Minero”, or “mining tax, based on charging companies for 1% of the value of their
in-situ mineral reserves per year. Companies such as Goldcorp (Cerro Negro) and Pan American

(Triton) in the region railed agianst the idea, siad it was unconstitutional or impossible to
calculate or just plain and simply unfair. The province meanwhile, under Governor and erstwhile
CFK supporter Daniel Peralta (who has since fallen out with the Kirchnerists) insisted on its
plan, needing the cash to shore up its empty regional coffers. Since that time legal challenges
to the law have blocked any real payments and the mining company lawyers along the way
won several victories, not least when Pan American managed to get a court to agree that it
didn’t have to pay (under the terms of that time) in July 2015.
We therefore cut to last week and what now looks like the final chapter in this surcharge tax
story. During in its last session before dissolving the current provincial administration (the new
one starts on December 10th same as at the national level), the parliament overwhelmingly
voted to annul the ‘mining tax’ (8) and it is now a thing of the past. Good news for mining
companies in Santa Cruz.
Argentina: The Macri mining team
With the inauguration of the new President Macri on December 10th just days away, we now
have the names of the people who will run mining in Argentina. Top job of Minister of Energy
and Mines goes to Juan José Aranguren, an ex-executive of Shell in Argentina who will surely
have more to do with the country’s hydrocarbon policy (Vaca Muerta etc) than hard rock
mining, as Argentina has always been a bigger player in oil anyway.
Meanwhile the job of Secretary of Mining (i.e. Veep Mining and reporting to Araguren) has been
given to Daniel Meilán, a career mining guy and public servant who for a while was sub-
secretary of mining in the 1990’s in the Carlos Menem administration. For a glimpse of the way
Meilán sees mining in Argentina today, this link (9) is to an interview he gave a few months ago
to a Cordoba provincial newspaper and an interesting look at the way he sees the sector, this of
course long before he was picked (to many people’s surprise) as the new main mining man. It
includes quotes such as this on the mining sector under the CFK government and Jorge
Mayoral, the outgoing mining vice-minister:
“We (as a nation) have done so many things badly that to become credible again we
need to demonstrate (credibility). This is the job, first to demonstrate all this and then
go out looking for foreign investors, but with a package of things already done.”
Then this on the anti-mining attitude of some Argentine provinces:
“The issue of being for or against mining is an issue of lack of dialogue. Without
dialogue between parties, the extremist view are favoured. What we need to do is go
back and to national/provincial dialogue. If there are provinces that don’t want mining,
then accept it, but define territories and zones where mining will be prohibited. We
need to get it down an writing (make official) once and for all, we need to go back to
making agreements between the Federal government and the provinces, because the
last ones were many years ago and we need to revalidate them, to redefine the rules.
“What we need to do is to get agreement with the grassroots concerns before we start
calling for investment. The work to do is inside the system.”
All that sounds reasonable enough to me. We wish Meilán good luck (he’ll need it).
Peru: Five candidates do CADE
As noted in last week’s edition, the top five candidates for the 2016 Presidential election ( in no
particular order Alejandro Toledo of the ‘Perú Posible’ party, Alan García of ‘Partido Aprista’,
César Acuña of ‘Alianza para el Progreso’, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski of ‘Peruanos por el Kambio’,
and current poll leader Keiko Fujimori of ‘Fuerza Popular’, normally known as “Fujimorista
Party”) had speaking spots at the Peru Chamber of Commerce (CADE) annual conference in
Paracas last week. All of them spoke on Friday so I dedicated part of my day on the
speechifying. I wish I hadn’t bothered.
Most of the time all they talked about was themselves and how they were cut out to be the
13

next President, rather than talk policies or manifestos. A long way second came real policy
notes, which I found surprising to an audience of Peru’s rich and successful business
community and the people you need to have on your side at this early stage. A potted
summary:
Alejandro Toledo: The deterioration of Toledo is marked, which could be due to his long-
documented drink problem (I get to write these things, other places worried about lawsuits will
only whisper or suggest). He’s turned into a joke, a cardboard cut-out politician who is an
embarrassment to his country. He had his moment in the early 2000s, that time has gone and
so has any credibility he might have had.
César Acuña: Boorish, pompous and a terrible public speaker. Unpresentable in polite society,
he may be a successful businessman, politico and rector of the university he founded (that’s
made him very rich) but he has the charisma of a wet lettuce and is so full of himself he’s
almost as painful to witness as Toledo. Mind you, none of those character weaknesses ever
stopped people from becoming high level politicos in any country. Even though he’s polling
fairly well at the moment I cannot see Acuña mounting a real challenge, plus there are some
dark corners of his personal life that won’t sit well with the public (e.g. history of family violence
and an ex-wife who isn’t afraid of telling the world about it).
Alan García: As usual, world class oratory and a control of an audience that the others who
shared the podium on Friday can only dream about. García is Peru’s only serious politician and
a master of his (dark) art. However, García also managed to use his time to say virtually
nothing of substance in his eloquent manner (another of his strong points). Of the five he came
off best, because only he’s by far the best speaker of them all. Content was light, he’ll be
relying on the APRA party machine to get him up in the polls in 2016.
Pedro Pablo Kuczynski: He went over a few of the manifesto points that have already been
announced, such as his plan to reduce sales tax (IVA) to 15% from the current 18% (a liquidity
thing, which will help money velocity), while offering pre-boxed platitudes such as his thoughts
on mining (translated), “Mining is 50% of Peru’s exports. We must support mining, (but) no in
an irresponsible way. Mining has to be environmentally responsible”, which revealed nothing
new to anybody present or listening in, perfect politikese. The rest of his time was spent
playing up his business background and qualifications. The worse thing was his persistent
cough, which was distracting all through his speech but also returns focus to his health and
whether a man in his mid-80s is in conditions to be President. It’s one of the main points
against PPK among rank and file Peruvians, so any signs of health weakness will be jumped
upon by his detractors. He did himself no favours on the health score last Friday though on the
other hand he got the highest approval rating from those present, a solid 84% thumbs-up for
his speech by the CADE business crowd. That’s to be expected, after all.
Keiko Fujimori: Alberto’s daughter of course, and as such I personally think she’d be negative
for the country and set Peru back in terms of judicial reform and the fight against corruption,
but that’s based more on internal social matters than economy thoughts and I will give her the
credit for being the only one who unveiled real policies and some of her election platform on
Friday instead of going the “Aren’t I wonderful?” onanist route of the other male strutting
candidates. My chief Keiko takeaway was that her economic policies would be hands-on, with a
Finance Ministry that would be proactive to promote growth (i.e. neo-Keynesian style
government intervention in macro matters) rather than the current (in her words) auto-pilot
Economy Ministry.
Summing up the five, the good news is that when it comes to Foreign Policy, Foreign
investment and economic growth, none of the five are far from each other and they can all be
classed as “business friendly” and miner friendly”, they’re all pretty neoliberal with some small
degrees of difference. There’s nothing in these five for those on the outside looking at Peru as
an FDI destination should fear. The bad news is that they’re all mediocre.
14

Moises Naim does CADE
Head of the influential magazine Foreign Policy, the right-wing Venezuelan national Moises
Naim was invited (paid) to address the Peru CADA conference and his main message is
captured by this short report in El Comercio (10) which I’ll translate in full.
During his presentation at CADE, Naim said that micro-regional powers can block national
interests, such as what has happened with the Conga project in Cajamarca, which generates
poverty.
The expert recommended not to use hardline strategies nor have a predeliction to violently
repress protests against (mining) projects.
“It’s a false temptation to go in heavy handed (ottonote: In Spanish “mano dura”, which means
“hard hand” and explains the situation when e.g. police move in with firearms and batons to break
up protests). Porjects whould have national appeal. In which universities, media, the church and
others are involved. These issues won’t be solved by pressure but by democracy”, he said.
In Peru mining represents 14% of GDP and more thsn 60% of totl exports. In copper, it’s the
world’s third largest producer.
This is one of those situations where Peruvians may finally react and the subject gain traction
because instead of being told the obvious by the usual suspect greenies and lefty hand-
wringers, somebody “famous in business” tells them instead. Naim is right, he’s not making any
startling new discovery here, but its the type of discourse that could positively affect the
upcoming election run.
More Peru: Peru’s forex versus the dollar
Here below is a ten year chart of the Peru Sol (PEN) versus the US Dollar (USD) and it’s a good
visual on how the currency pair has rushed back up to the highs last seen in 2006, when Toledo
was President and gold traded around U$600/oz (seems a long time ago). Peru’s Sol is a decent
proxy for the state of other LatAm countries’ currencies against the dollar, as its strength has
been commodity-based, it’s a free floating
currency and has a Central Bank that
normally uses orthodox policies to keep the
transitions smooth (i.e. intervention is on a
short-term level to stop big moves). The
interesting bit is the last few weeks in the
pair, because the move up to this
weekend’s 3.36 versus the US Dollar has
been a spike, but we now have most
national commentators saying that it’s no
flash in the pan and the Sol is likely to keep
moving up, to 3.50 or 3.60, because the
Central Bank doesn’t have much in the way
of ammo left to defend it.
If you check the official figures, the Peru
Central Bank (BCRP) currently counts on U$62Bn in international currency reserves but that
figure is padded out by the number of dollars held in bank accounts by citizens and companies,
which comes to around U$36Bn. In fact the BCRP itself has around U$25Bn in liquid reserves
and because it’s been selling dollars in 2015 to keep the Sol from any sharp deval event, that’s
down from just over U$35Bn at the end of 2014. Put in simple terms, the BCRP is running out
of ammunition. The market is now keenly aware of this (of course) and the Central Bank isn’t
likely to drain its dollar holding down to zero, the result being the acceleration of the deval.
This is good news for mining costs in Peru in dollar terms, of course. Not so great for its
citizenry, who are about to go through a burst of inflation due to the import costs of goods.
Chile: More on the country’s rise in mining unemployment
Following on from last week’s report in IKN342 that 167 of Chile’s 1,100 small copper mining
15

concerns have closed in 2015, this week the country’s official stats office, INE, reported (11)
that total employment in mining in 2015 has dropped by 19,000, or 7.9%, compared to the
same period of 2014. At present some 222,770 people are directly employed by mining,
compared to 241,770 this time last year. All sector commentators expect the layoffs to continue
and say that there isn’t a company out there that hasn’t seen significant layoffs. Even the State
controlled Codelco has rid itself of 4,292 employees.
For a little more context, Chile’s government normally uses a 2.5X factoring for direct to indirect
jobs in mining, i.e. the number of auxiliary jobs that depend on the wealth created by the
mining industry. If we use that thumb-rule number and put the two groups together, we can
estimate that 66,500 jobs have been lost in Chile due to the slowdown in mining. In a country
with a labor force of 7.6m, that works out at 0.9% added to the unemployment stats just this
year by mining layoffs. That’s significant and even more so when you consider that mining jobs
in Chile are traditionally some of the highest paid jobs in the country, especially when compared
on a like-for-like basis to similar level employment opportunities in other sectors.
Ecuador: Cordova does Mines & Money
It was interesting to read that Javier Cordova, Mining Minister for Ecuador, was doing the
rounds at London’s Mines & Money conference last week and talking to the press about the
State burden deal his country expects to close with Lundin Gold (LUG.to) soon (according to
Global Mining Observer (12). The deal is 22% corporate tax plus a 5% royalty), or that
according to this Bloomie report (13) Rio Tinto “is considering investment in Ecuador” on one or
more of the copper project areas coming up for grabs as from January 2016 when the
government tenders new concession areas to the world.
I voiced my...errr...opinion of Señor Cordova on the blog on Thursday (14) when hearing these
multiple messages start coming through, but I’ll expand on that here by saying thar Cordova is
a classic “jam tomorrow” artist who has been promising the world for the Ecuador mining sector
ever since Correa came to power, but so far has delivered very little.
Also, the LUG situation isalready flagged as the company has stated its timeline includes a
finalized deal with the government at end 2015 or early 2016 (by law each mining company in
Ecuador negotiates its own State burden deal). The figures cited by Cordova sound reasonable
too, but we must remember that the’re only part of the whole package and according to the
nation’s constitution, the State must take at least 51% of total gross proceeds.
As for Rio Tinto, it may be true and it may be false, but as it comes at a time when Rio Tinto is
pulling out of copper projects such as La Granja in Cajamarca Peru, the thought of it moving to
pick up space in the sketchy Ecuador jurisdiction doesn’t sit right. Especialy form a man with
Cordova’s track record while pressing flesh at a trade bash. Avoid Ecuador.
Political risk increases for Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to)
Last week we noted the potential for increased political risk for Tahoe Resources at Escobal in
Guatemala and part of the translated report was about Alberto Rotondo, the Peruvian ex-army
man who was contracted by TAHO to run its security campaign and as a result of the violence
as arrested by the government. Here’s an excerpt:
The ex-army officer is currently in prison waiting to stand trial for acts of violence
against community members (in San Rafael Las Flores). Also, according to the CALAS
lawyer, “Since 2012 the company has faced a legal action for environmental damage
caused since the time of its construction and the legal case is about to come before a
judge.”
As luck (?) would have it, it turns out that Señor Rotondo absconded from his house arrest in
Guatemala, an event reported by Mining Watch on December 1st (15). Rotondo made his
escape on November 28th because he didn’t want to face his trial that was due to start in
January. He is now in Peru according to his own defence attorney (16), but here’s how Mining
Watch told it earlier in the week:
16

Guatemala City/Ottawa/Tatamagouche) On Monday, plaintiffs in the criminal case
against Tahoe Resources’ former security manager, Alberto Rotondo, were informed
that he had escaped police custody. Rotondo is accused of having ordered private
security guards to attack peaceful protestors outside the Escobal mine in southeastern
Guatemala on April 27, 2013, wounding seven men.
“This demonstrates that the Guatemalan justice system, especially the National Civil
Police, still suffers from high levels of corruption and influence peddling. The police
failed to implement the judge’s order to ensure constant police supervision of Rotondo,
now turned fugitive,” remarked Rafael Maldonado, Director of the Centre for
Environmental, Social and Legal Action (CALAS).
This could cause a major headache for TAHO, as even though they’re bound to swear blind it
has nothing to do with them the optics are very poor and come at a time when the incoming
President Jimmy Morales may look for his example for a crusade against corruption and sketchy
goings on in the Otto Pérez Molina administration period. Meanwhile, the political risk mounting
in Guatemala for TAHO is being completely ignored by the market and TAHO continues to trade
in the front rank of precious metals plays (and more like an outperforming goldie, rather than a
stock largely dependent on silver for its well-being). IKN reiterates its “avoid” call on this stock,
risk does not justify the potential reward and there are far safer ways of playing the PM space.
Colombia awards an environmental permit to an open-pit project
This went largely undetected by the English language trade press but I think it’s important. Last
week the Gramalote project (51% AngloGold Ashanti, 49% B2Gold) was awarded its
environmental permit to continue work, a permit that will allow Gramalote to move forward with
work on its pre-feasibility study eventually to feasibility stage that AngloGold Ashanti (project
operator) estimates for 2018.
Notably B2 didn’t make a squeak about this event (it doesn’t seem to care much about
Gramalote any more) but it caught my eye because as this local report (17) points out, even
though it’s only a permit to continue exploraiton work rather than a full EIA for a mine
operaiton to come it’s the first time that any environmental impact permit has been awarded to
any open-pit gold mining project in Colombia in decades (and yes, that statement includes La
Colosa). When it comes to the bureaucratic swamp that is the government of Colombia,
anything positive that that happens to promote the mining industry needs to have as much light
as possibe shone on it beacuse if so, they may feel willing to do it all again. Or as Ken
Kluksdahl, Senior VP Projects for AngloGold Ashanti in Colombia, put it (translated), “This is an
important step for the future, which shows us that the Colombian authorities back large and
modern mining projects that comply with the highest social and environmental standards. It
shows the opening of the country to business and that our future in Colombia is advancing, as
we work towards concluding our current pre-feasibility study”. A more obvious hint towards La
Colosa’s future is difficult to imagine.
Market Watching
Minera IRL update
It’s all gone rather quiet at IRL and frankly, I’m good about keeping it that way. But here are a
few things:
1) Unsurprisingly, the board meeting for Minera IRL SA (subsidiary with Diego Benavides as
president) slated for December 3rd was suspended by Team Benavides, as they don’t want
Team Hodges to get their hands on the company assets (certainly not at this late stage). The
Team Benavides NR dated December 2nd and the Team Hodges response dated December 4th
are both linked on this post here (18) which also includes my opinion in visual form.
2) In my personal opinion, I have no doubt that Team Benavides will win this fight. Time will
tell how long Team Hodges manags to spin it out before they are defeated, that’s all.
17

3) I’ve had a few mails about queries about this whole subsidiary thing, so I’m going to add a
few words here. Yes I agree that the company structure is very strange, with a wholly owned
(bar one voite) subsidiary that’s controlled by someone outside of the mothership company.
The weird structure is a throwback to the Courtney Chmaberlain days and worked well at the
time, it’s only when Courtney Chamberlain passed on and the usurpers tried to grab control for
their own means that it became an issue. For what it’s worth, I’ve conversed with Diego
Benavides on this subject and he is fully aware that the company structure will need to change
and become “normal” once this whole soap opera is over. He’s keen to get IRL into a shape
that will be transparent and attractive as an investment vehicle (and I repeat, he has always
denied all charges of corporate wrongdoing and to that end has opened up the books of the
Minera IRL SA subsidiary to the Peru public prosecutor for examination and been given a clean
bill of health by that body, something that Team Hodges “forgets” to tell anyone) and
recognizes things have to change for the better, the system that worked under Courtney
Chamberlain doesn’t work any longer. However and ironically, be in no doubt that without this
weird situation in place, it would have been impossible for Diego Benavides to have stopped
Team Hodges from gaining full control of the company assets many months ago and their plans
to sell off the company at a bargain price to a third party (one day I’ll tell you who that is)
would have gone very smoothly. It’s therefore only the weird, “non-transparent” corporate
structure, the one Team Hodges has railed against all this time and tried to suggest corruption
over, that’s saved the company from their self-serving clutches. Which is why they’ve hated
Diego and his blocking moves so much, of course. They thought he’d roll over and give in, or
take an eays payoff and resignation. They were wrong and because of that, theres still life for
this company’s share price in the future.
4) The new date for the suspended EGM will be announced by Minera IRL Ltd (Team Hodges)
tomorrow Monday December 7th. They’ve been getting pressure from shareholders, their
lawyers and reportedly from the OSC as well, so any and all of you who’ve sent in their
complaints to the OSC need to be aware that your efforts have been rewarded. I don’t know
when they’re going to call the resumption of the suspended EGM, but the agreed limit date is
December 17th. Interestingly, that happens to be Courtney Chamberlain’s birthday.
5) There’s an interesting segment in the Team Hodges news release dated November 27th
2015, (19) the one that reported on the EGM suspension. It goes like this (author highlights):
Shareholders who wish to vote and have not yet submitted a form of proxy may do so
in advance of the adjourned meeting. Shareholders wishing to change their vote
may submit a revised form of proxy in advance of the adjourned meeting. All
such forms of proxy must be submitted so as to be received by the registrar of the
Company, Computershare Investor Services (Jersey) Limited, c/o Computershare
Investor Services PLC, The Pavilions, Bridgewater Road, Bristol, BS99 6ZY, United
Kingdom, by no later than 48 hours prior to the time appointed for the adjourned
meeting.
Now as I’ve mentioned I’m not a lawyer, but on hearing several expert opinions I’ve been led to
believe, and quite firmly, that information is incorrect. Because 1) the EGM was suspended, not
closed and a new one started and 2) as the voting cut-off date for the EGM was November 24th
3) that cut-off date still applies. Team Hodges lawyers may not like the idea (in fact they
definitely won’t like the idea) but there’s a very good case indeed for the fact that nobody can
change their vote any longer. The votes as collected and stored at the cut-off date and time are
the ones that count for the EGM, no matter if the EGM has been continued until mid-December.
That would mean Team Hodges can’t change people’s minds. And they can’t squeeze block
shareholders to change for a win when they only see a loss. Which means they lose or they
lose, assuming of course the extremely likely scenario that Pinto refused to report the vote
because he’d lost and he decided to sulk in a corner instead of being a man. Unsurprising.
Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) will lose its Santa Ana tribunal case
I’m late to this, because the most interesting documents have been on file since October 6th
18

(20) but the case that Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) has brought against the government of Peru
for the suspension and eventual rescinding of its licence for the Santa Ana project should be
required reading for ANYONE involved in the mining sector in Peru or even greater Latin
America be they executives, investors or employees.
There are two matters to consider, with the specific case and legal points of BCM vs Peru the
lesser of the two. For more on that, I direct you to the link above and the file entitled
“Respondent’s Counter-Memorial on the Merits and Memorial on Jurisdiction” dated October 6,
2015, because that’s the one that has the basic information that will blow BCM case out the
water. That may or may not interest you (for me it’s fascinating) but the crux of the argument
(in non-copiable PDFs, which are also long so soundbite extracts aren’t a great idea anyway) is
that according to the laws of Peru, BCM could not acquire Santa Ana because its law states that
foreign companies canot own land within 50km of any border for national security reasons. BCM
has tried to argue against this by quoting the law’s sub-sections, but the killer blow is that Peru
is able to show that BCM was fully aware of this law and tried to get around it by getting a
Peruvian to concession the land (namely an employee of the company) and then getting her to
option it to BCM. This shows both awareness and guilt in avoiding the law. Peru has also
provided very strong evidence to show that the 50km rule (known as Article 71) was the reason
the State suspended the licence, which is something BCM thought until now was retroactive. I
urge you to read more at that link to get the full picture rather than to rely on my potentially
confusing crib notes, but in short BCM is toast.
But the more widespread issue and the one that provides a case study for one and all is the
community relations work done by BCM. If you read only the company’s side of the story, you
get to hear about their hard work in community outreach, the progress made and then how it
all went inexplicably wrong when protests rose up out of nowhere. But when you read the
government state that BCM engaged with only five of the 26 communities in and around Santa
Ana and from there, the troubles that brewed are far more logical.
BCM may have gone in with best intentions, but they didn’t go in with best plans. The
company’s community relations program was half-baked, non-inclusive and managed to annoy
as many people as it won over in the area around the Santa Ana project. BCM has maintained
that the “people who matter” are the villagers closest to the site of the mine and due to that,
they concentrated their efforts on them. But it’s now patently obvious they should have cast
their net wider, the plan they ran wasn’t well considered, it was the source of their own
downfall.
Community relations programs used to be bolt-on extras for mining companies and there are
still companies today that think this way. They need to be roundly avoided when it comes to
investment in juniors that want to see their project become a producing mine. Good community
relations isn’t an optional extra any longer, it’s as important as the resource, as important as
the executive running the show, as important as the financing package. What the BCM case
study shows is that even good intentions towards communities isn’t good enough, the program
has to be smart, professional and one that works for all stakeholders, not just the ones that the
company decides are the stakeholders.
Volcan (VOLCABC1) to increase zinc production in 2016
It’s not just the iron ore market and it’s not just the copper market that has the big producers
shifting up production in the ligh of lower prices, thereby asphyxiating smaller, higher cash cost
competitiors. This wee Peru’s Volcan (VOLCABC1 on the Lima stock exchange) announced (21)
it plans to increase Zn production in 2016 from its approx 280,000 tonnes Zn (pure and
assumed refined Zn and not including other metals, Volcan is a polymetallic producer) annual
prodcution, which makes it the 4th largest zinc producer in the world today. Its official reasoning
is that due to the closure of the Lisheen (Ireland) and Century (Australia) mines there’s a
million tonnes taken away from supply next year (worldwide Zn production is estimated at
13.2m tonnes this year 2015). Its unofficial reason is that it wants to kill companies like Trevali
(TV.to).
19

HudBay Minerals (HBM.to) (HBM): Garofalo joins Goldcorp (GG)
With David Garofalo’s departure to become the new head of Goldcorp (22) HBM is now
considerably weakened. Unless saved by a reversal in copper, I expect it to drop further on
both fundamental and news-driven events in 2016. Hair is a weak choice and will be prone to
attacks until removed.
Continental Gold (CNL.to): A day in the life
This report (23) in the Colombian website “Keinyke” (phonetically “who and what”, the website
being a country version of Vice or Mother Jones) makes for interesting reading about Buriticá,
the town where Continental Gold and its eponymous project is located. Under the header of
“The municipality with the highest rate of accidents in the country”, the precarious life in
Buriticá due to the influx of illegal and informal gold miners is revealed with the centre of the
story the local hospital. There are just four doctors to cover the official population of 7,000, but
that doesn’t include the so-called “floating population” of informal miners, another 7,000 people
who have moved in, have no insurance coverage and seem to spend their days either working
in the informal underground mines, drinking or riding their motorbikes when drunk, hence the
high accident rate (last year 523 road accidents were registered in Buriticá, with the second
highest number for any other municipality in Colombia 192). That and the high rates of carbon
monoxide poisoning cases from their places of work (deaths are common). As for what the
informal miners spend their earnings on, it’s obviously not medical insurance but there’s an
interesting line of how “Pre-Paid Girls” (like telephone cards?) are brought into the town from
Medellín, three hours drive away. Or this section, translated:
“Next to the mines a whole centre of commerce has been created, growing
like a sidewalk of the municipality. There you find basic restaurants where you
can eat “bandeja paisa”* for nine thousand pesos (U$2.80), a pool hal,
houses that seem to float at the edge of the river and two whorehouses. In
one of them, the prostitutes look like beauty queens and can charge up to
100,000 pesos (U$31) for their services.”
According to long-term Buriticá residents the problems started five years ago when the influx of
locals looking to mine gold began. According to company records, Continental Gold listed on the
TSX in 2010. Beats me why CNL might be having environmental impact permitting problems.
Summing up the long-read article at KienyKe is well worth the time of any Spanish language
reader, there’s a lot more information and slice-of-life stuff in the piece. It certianly gives a
different view of the locality than the bucolic idyll we see in the companys corporate
presentations.
Sunridge Gold (SGC.v) update
My side bet on SGC did well last week and finished up 10% at 27.5c. I’m a seller at 30c, so
we’re not that far away. This is now my 2015 “will pay for the turkey” trade.
20

We should get the SGC management circular this week coming that will formalize the special
meeting needed to approve the buyout and distribution plan, the type of de-risk news that the
market should like. Look for that to be filed on SEDAR.
Conclusion
IKN343 is done, we end with a few bullet points:
• Lake Shore Gold (LSG.to) is a kind of quasi-top pick this weekend, as I see it well
positioned if gold is kind to us and consolidates the pop it put in on Friday.
• But whatever happens, Fridays action should be enough for anyone to be able to agree
with the IKN house position of the past few weeks; the Janet hike is baked into gold.
• Minera IRL’s fate will either be sooner or later due to the whims of lawyers, but be clear
that Tema Benavides now holds all the aces.
• The Bear Creek Santa Ana case is more than enough for a social studies university
student’s thesis. A fascinating insight on how a junior miner screws up community
relations, even when it’s “doing its best”.
• B2Gold brought Christmas cheer to your author lats week. Repeat, please.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Otto
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-near-2010-lows-yellen-010330031.html
(2) http://www.phoscan.ca/news.aspx
(3) http://calgaryherald.com/business/energy/oil-price-optimism-fuels-petrus-resources-plan-to-trade-on-public-markets
(4) http://www.americaeconomia.com/negocios-industrias/chilena-antofagasta-minerals-estima-que-demanda-de-cobre-
crecera-menor-ritmo-que
(5) http://www.aminera.com/index.php/component/k2/item/14977-antofagasta-minerals-anuncia-que-reducir%C3%A1-
costos-por-us$400-millones-anuales-al-2016.html
(6) http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/nevada-copper-provides-corporate-and-project-update-tsx-ncu-
2059631.htm#.VgvRgojxwWg.mailto
(7) http://www.globalminingobserver.com/david-garofalo-goldcorp-ceo-148
(8) http://www.aminera.com/index.php/mineria-internacional/item/14992-argentina-la-c%C3%A1mara-de-diputados-de-
santa-cruz-sesion%C3%B3-por-%C3%BAltima-vez-y-derog%C3%B3-el-impuesto-minero.html
(9) http://www.editorialrn.com.ar/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3301:el-pregon-minero-entrevisto-a-
daniel-meilan-ex-secretario-de-mineria&catid=14&Itemid=602
(10) elcomercio.pe/cade/noticias/naim-conflictos-mineros-no-se-resuelven-mano-dura-noticia-1860930
(11) http://www.entornointeligente.com/articulo/7487992/CHILE-Cerca-de-19-mil-puestos-se-han-perdido-en-
mineriacute;a-este-antilde;o-respecto-a-todo-2014-por-baja-en-precio-del-cobre
(12) http://www.globalminingobserver.com/lundin-gold-tax-deal-ecuador-147
21

(13) http://gestion.pe/empresas/rio-tinto-estudia-ofertar-mina-ecuador-2150212
(14) http://incakolanews.blogspot.pe/2015/12/ecuadors-mining-minister-javier-cordova.html
(15) http://www.miningwatch.ca/news/tahoe-resources-former-security-manager-turns-fugitive-0
(16) http://lahora.gt/rotondo-huyo-a-peru-segun-abogado/
(17) http://americaeconomia.com/negocios-industrias/colombia-otorga-licencia-ambiental-proyecto-aurifero-de-
anglogold-y-b2gold
(18) http://incakolanews.blogspot.pe/2015/12/minera-irl-mirll-irlto-ikns-opinion-on.html
(19) http://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=20151127065931M6483
(20) https://icsid.worldbank.org/apps/ICSIDWEB/cases/Pages/casedetail.aspx?CaseNo=ARB/14/21&tab=DOC
(21) http://www.aminera.com/index.php/mineria-internacional/item/14982-minera-volcan-prev%C3%A9-mayor-
producci%C3%B3n-de-zinc-el-pr%C3%B3ximo-a%C3%B1o.html
(22) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/hudbay-announces-ceo-transition-220000864.html
(23) http://www.kienyke.com/historias/buritica-pueblo-con-mas-accidentes-de-colombia/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2014
Closed in 2014 closed close price
Fortuna Silver FVI.to jan'14 C$2.80 23-dic-13 C$3.19 13.9% small ST trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to jan'14 C$2.06 07-jun-13 C$2.30 11.7% trading position finally closed
Network Expl. NET.v feb'14 C$0.01 22-jul-12 C$0.005 -50.0% position closed, did nothing
Tahoe Resources TAHO feb'14 U$13.10 08-abr-13 U$21.72 -65.8% short closed due to reality
Darwin Res DAR.v mar'14 C$0.10 14-jul-12 C$0.045 -55.0% tiny risk play dropped
B2Gold BTO.to mar'14 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.35 9.1% closed to free up capital
Pretium Res PVG mar'14 U$5.38 22-nov-13 U$6.50 -20.8% short closed as port longer
Gold Res Corp GORO may'14 U$5.07 26-ene-14 U$4.12 16.7% took profit
Bear Creek Min BCM.v may'14 C$1.63 23-mar-14 C$2.05 25.8% Took profit, sm near-term win
Eco Oro Min. EOM.to aug'14 C$0.48 22-sep-13 C$0.26 -45.8% sold small loser to make room
True Gold TGM.v sep'14 C$0.395 02-feb-14 C$0.41 3.8% M&A won't happen, sold
Santacruz Silver SCZ.v sep'14 C$1.04 26-ene-14 C$0.86 -17.3% silver/M&A spec, rel. small
Timmins Gold TGD nov'14 U$1.38 09-abr-14 U$0.99 -28.3% failed trade, sell, raise cash
Kinross Gold KGC nov'14 U$2.90 20-oct-14 U$2.15 -25.9% V small trade, didn't work, chau
Salazar Res SRL.v hold C$0.28 02-mar-14 C$0.145 -48.2% lost China sponsor
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2013
Closed in 2013 closed close price
USA Graphite USGT feb'13 U$0.93 08-ene-13 U$0.17 81.7% short tgt made/trade closed
Lachlan Star LSA.to feb'13 C$1.50 30-sep-12 C$0.95 -36.7% sold to reduce port risk
United Silver USC.to mar'13 C$0.21 28-oct-12 C$0.095 -54.8% small Ag sector trade, failed
Aurcana Corp AUN.v apr'13 C$1.07 11-nov-12 C$0.55 -48.6% closed on poor YE results
Gold Res Corp GORO apr'13 U$14.11 25-ene-13 U$9.38 33.5% short tgt made/trade closed
Marlin Gold MLN.v apr'13 C$0.075 10-feb-13 C$0.065 -13.3% closed trade
Bear Creek BCM.v may'13 C$2.58 01-abr-13 C$2.40 -7.0% near-term, time ran out
Lupaka Gold LPK.to may'13 C$1.12 23-oct-11 C$0.32 -71.4% towel thrown in
Tahoe Resources TAHO may'13 U$18.62 08-abr-13 U$14.70 21.1% took profit on ST short
OceanaGold OGC.to jun'13 C$3.03 16-sep-12 C$1.18 -61.1% sold on gold drop
IMPACT Silver IPT.v jun'13 C$1.14 13-ene-13 C$0.62 -45.6% sold on silver drop
Duran Ventures DRV.v jun'13 C$0.045 10-may-13 C$0.025 -44.4% ST trade never worked
Plata Latina PLA.v jun'13 C$0.79 10-abr-12 C$0.13 -83.5% closed
Bellhaven BHV.v jun'13 C$0.065 03-jun-13 C$0.12 84.6% closed ST trade
B2Gold BTO.to aug'13 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.44 12.1% sold 1/2 to raise cash
22

Colossus Min. CSI.to aug'13 C$0.72 24-jul-13 C$0.79 9.7% closed thru nerves on future
Pretium Res PVG.to aug'13 C$8.20 11-jun-13 C$10.14 23.7% closed to raise cash
Bear Creek BCM.v sep'13 C$2.06 30-may-13 C$2.20 6.8% sold on pol risk decision
MAG Silver MVG oct'13 U$7.00 12-sep-13 U$5.62 19.6% near-term short
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'13 U$9.52 03-may-13 U$4.98 47.7% short tgt made, covered
AQM Copper AQM.v oct'13 C$0.31 16-oct-11 C$0.125 -59.7% closed failed trade
First Majestic AG nov'13 U$11.51 07-nov-13 U$10.50 8.8% v near term short, closed
Fortuna Silver FSM nov'13 U$4.00 07-nov-13 U$3.68 8.0% v near term short, closed
Primero PPP nov'13 U$5.70 07-nov-13 U$5.75 -0.9% v near term short, closed
Starcore Intl SAM.to nov'13 C$0.235 08-sep-13 C$0.17 -27.7% ST trade didn't work, sm loss
B2Gold BTO.to dec'13 C$2.22 28-nov-12 C$2.16 -2.7% closed ST trade to raise cash
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2012
Closed in 2012 closed close PPS
Soltoro SOL.v jan'12 C$0.87 07-nov-11 C$0.94 8.0% cash moved to BCM.v
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to feb'12 C$0.84 13-oct-10 C$0.98 16.7% trade closed on ELG.v offer
Minefinders MFN feb'12 U$11.68 17-nov-11 U$14.80 26.7% target made, trade closed
Iron Creek IRN.v mar'12 C$0.58 26-sep-10 C$0.31 -46.6% time up on small bad trade
U.S. Silver USA.to apr'12 C$2.18 15-mar-12 C$1.86 -14.7% ST trade no good, cut loss
Augusta Res. AZC.to may'12 C$3.10 29-jan-12 C$2.07 -33.2% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Bellhaven BHV.v may'12 C$0.50 22-sep-10 C$0.28 -44.0% new mgmt not impressive
Zincore Metals ZNC.to may'12 C$0.325 29-jul-11 C$0.17 -47.7% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Soltoro SOL.v may'12 C$0.70 18-mar-11 C$0.41 -41.4% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
U.S. Silver USA.to aug'12 C$1.78 27-jul-12 C$1.36 -23.6% fail ST trade close pre split
Estrella Gold EST.v aug'12 C$0.91 27-mar-11 C$0.14 -84.6% Closed on port realignment
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'12 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.32 397.2% sell call $6.17/ Mar25
Strait Minerals SRD.v oct'12 C$0.125 09-dec-11 C$0.12 -4.0% closing coverage til FY13
Sunward Res SWD.to oct'12 C$1.47 13-mar-11 C$1.21 -17.7% sold, took loss
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'12 U$21.47 09-sep-12 U$17.40 19.0% Short trade closed
Yellowhead Min. YMI.to nov'12 C$1.00 01-apr-12 C$0.63 -37.0% sold, took loss
Primero Mining PPP nov'12 U$7.26 07-oct-12 U$6.73 7.3% Short trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v nov'12 C$3.38 07-nov-11 C$3.72 10.1% Took small profit
Vena Resources VEM.to dec'12 C$0.70 31-may-09 C$0.18 -74.3% Failed trade (caps F)
Galway Res GWY.v dec'12 C$2.19 24-nov-12 C$2.30 5.0% closed good ST arb trade
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2011
Closed in 2011 closed close PPS
Sunward Res SWD.v jan'11 C$1.05 21-nov-10 C$1.63 55.2% target made, trade closed
Serengeti Res SIR.v mar'11 C$0.245 05-dec-10 C$0.285 16.3% sold pre-tgt, ST trade fail
Fronteer Gold FRG apr'11 U$2.37 03-may-09 U$15.24 543.0% buyout, trade closed
Minefinders MFN apr'11 U$9.09 07-nov-10 U$16.89 85.8% target made, trade closed
Metalline Min. MMG may'11 U$1.04 26-jan-11 U$0.89 -14.4% exit, resource disappointed
Peregrine Met PGM.to jul'11 C$0.87 06-mar-11 C$2.60 198.9% buyout offer, closed
Dynasty Metals DMM.to jul'11 C$4.20 03-may-09 C$2.85 -32.1% Sold. Fail. Move on.
Aura Silver AUU.v aug'11 C$0.22 13-oct-10 C$0.16 -36.4% Bad pick. Take loss
U.S. Silver USA.v aug'11 C$0.52 26-jan-11 C$0.71 36.5% closed to make room
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'11 C$2.80 12-may-11 C$4.27 52.5% target made, trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v sep'11 C$3.80 27-may-11 C$4.17 9.7% macro sell call victim
Minefinders MFN sep'11 U$14.70 10-aug-11 U$15.15 3.1% macro sell call victim
Great Panther GPR.to sep'11 C$3.03 22-aug-11 C$2.64 -12.9% macro sell call victim
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'11 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.36 400.9% sold 20%, macro sell call
Focus Ventures FCV.v nov'11 C$0.40 20-apr-10 C$0.20 -50.0% cut losses, bad trade
Regulus Res. REG.v dec'11 C$1.17 14-aug-11 C$0.52 -55.6% cut on news of poor 43-101
2009 and 2010 closed positions in appendices below
23

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2010
Closed in 2010 closed close PPS
B2Gold Corp BTO.to Jan'10 C$0.88 08-nov-09 C$1.49 68.2% target made, trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v Jan'10 C$0.18 23-aug-09 C$0.40 122.2% target made, trade closed
MAG Silver MVG mar'10 U$5.60 23-nov-09 U$7.28 30.0% closed in pdac week
Riverside Res RRI.v mar'10 C$0.435 20-sep-09 C$0.60 37.9% closed in pdac week
Amarillo Gold AGC.v mar'10 C$0.81 31-may-09 C$0.70 -13.6% closed in pdac week
B2Gold Corp BTO.to apr'10 C$1.24 18-feb-10 C$1.50 21.0% target made, trade closed
Lumina Copper LCC.v apr'10 C$0.84 14-jun-09 C$1.55 51.2% total position now sold
Troy Resources TRY.to may'10 C$1.10 03-may-09 C$2.25 104.5% sold on negative results
AuEx Ventures XAU.to may'10 C$2.51 24-may-09 C$3.38 34.7% trade closed
Nevada Copper NCU.to jun'10 C$3.27 14-mar-10 C$2.03 -37.9% need to lower Cu exposure
Carpathian Gold CPN.to jun'10 C$0.39 14-mar-10 C$0.35 -10.3% too exposed to cap raising
Amerix PM Corp APM.v jun'10 C$0.065 08-nov-09 C$0.05 -23.1% victim of macro bear
Antares Minerals ANM.v jun'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$2.10 47.9% sold half
Vena Resources VEM.to jun'10 C$0.37 31-may-09 C$0.23 -37.8% sold half
Minera Andes MAI.to sep'10 C$0.75 28-jul-10 C$0.95 26.7% ST trade closed
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to sep'10 C$0.52 01-aug-10 C$0.75 44.2% target made, trade closed
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'10 C$1.45 25-may-10 C$2.01 34.5% target made, trade closed
Blue Sky Uran BSK.v oct'10 C$0.41 19-may-10 C$0.22 -46.3% v small v bad trade closed
Dia Bras Expl DIB.v oct'10 C$0.14 30-aug-09 C$0.35 150.0% target made, trade closed
S. Amer. Silver SAC.to nov'10 C$1.38 24-oct-10 C$1.60 -15.9% loss on short, small fail
Ventana Gold VEN.to nov'10 C$7.92 27-jun-10 C$13.51 70.6% trade closed on buyout
Lumina Copper LCC.v nov'10 C$1.42 11-aug-10 C$3.65 157.0% trade closed
Antares Minerals ANM.v dec'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$8.40 491.5% trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.v dec'10 C$0.69 23-mar-10 C$2.16 213.0% trade closed
Coro Mining COP.to dec'10 C$0.585 03-oct-10 C$1.24 112.0% target made, trade closed
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2009
Closed positions closed closing PPS
Cardero Res CDY/CDU.to May'09 U$1.20 03-May-09 U$0.87 -27.5% sold on negative news
Eastmain Res. ER.to May'09 C$1.04 06-May-09 C$1.315 26.4% trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v May'09 C$0.165 03-May-09 C$0.235 42.4% trade closed
Latin Amer Min. LAT.v May'09 C$0.12 03-May-09 C$0.158 29.2% trade closed
Aquiline Res. AQI.to July'09 C$2.03 16-Jun-09 C$1.68 -17.2% took loss, bad timing
Chariot Resources CHD.to Aug'09 C$0.20 12-Jul-09 C$0.415 107.5% trade closed
Castle Gold CSG.v Sep'09 C$0.64 02-Aug-09 C$0.60 -6.3% ST trade didn't work out
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to Sep'09 C$2.30 12-May-09 C$4.50 95.7% profit taken
Los Andes Copper LA.v Sep'09 C$0.09 21-Jun-09 C$0.09 0% trade closed
Pediment Gold PEZ.to Oct'09 C$0.80 09-Aug-09 C$1.00 25.0% trade closed
Minera Andes MAI.to Oct'09 C$0.68 03-May-09 C$0.71 4.4% too much bad news
Dynasty Metals DMM.to Nov'09 C$4.18 03-May-09 C$6.01 43.8% half sold
Rusoro Mining RML.v Nov'09 C$0.55 03-May-09 C$0.57 3.6% underperformed
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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