The IKN Weekly, issue 341 — Nov 22, 2015
The IKN Weekly
Week 341, November 22nd 2015
Contents
This Week: A week of votes, Tide in and tide out.
Fundamental Analysis: B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG)
Stocks to Follow: Overview, Timmins Gold (TMM.to) (TGD), Legend Gold (LGN.v), Teranga
Gold (TGZ.to) (TGZ.ax), True Gold (TGM.v), Sandspring Resources (SSP.v), McEwen Mining
(MUX), B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to), Lake Shore Gold (LSG.to) (LSG), Dalradian Resources (DNA.to),
Focus Ventures (FCV.v).
Copper Basket: Overview.
Low Cost Producer Basket: Overview.
Regional Politics: Peru Madre de Dios: A murdered environmentalist, Guatemala and Tahoe
Resources (TAHO) (THO.to), Colombia Segovia, Colombia: The Atico Mining news release this
week, Dominican Republic: Christian group calls for closure of Barrick Pueblo Viejo, Mexico:
Torex Gold (TXG.to) and the ejidos, Brazil: The Samarco tailings dam failure story continues.
Market Watching: Almaden Minerals (AMM.to) (AAU) finances, Sunridge Gold (SGC.v) again,
Minera IRL (MIRL.L) (IRL.to): Style over substance in the Team Hodges dirty tricks campaign.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
A week of votes
The days ahead see voting and results from one big election, one small one. The big one is in
Argentina and by the time you read these words we’ll at least have the polls closed in the run-
off between Macri and Scioli, we may even have a preliminary result. However, I’d expect that
we don’t get a real result until some time on Monday. Worth mentioning here that the opinion
polls point to a Macri victory this weekend, though it’s also worth underscoring how bad a job
those same polls did in round one.
The small one is Minera IRL and the EGM on Thursday which will announce the results of the
voting for the new board. If you haven’t voted yet, please get your proxies in by early on
Tuesday 24th (though the voting window has already closed for those of you who bought shares
via the Peru stock exchange). And one thing’s for sure, whatever the result on Thursday we’ll
be able to ease off on the coverage of this most taxing and difficult of subjects once the main
episode of this fight is all over. I certainly hope the company will be able to put all its internal
shenanigans behind it and get on with the job in hand, building its mine.
Tide in and tide out
There really isn’t that much about the individual stocks that we track in this week’s edition, not
in ‘Stocks to Follow’ and not in ‘Market Watching’, which is basically because of this chart:
1
There’s little point in stockpicking when the whole world rises and falls as one. The fates of just
about every liquid producer we own cover at The IKN Weekly, BTO, TGZ, LSG, MUX et al, was
the same last week with a rollercoaster midweek, a decent rally and then drop on the back of
Friday selling.
As things stand today I’m interested in holding these cheapies, perhaps adding to them and
then there are other stocks that are my idea of a great near-term trade such as Buenaventura
(BVN) or New Gold (NGD). But s I write these words this weekend there seems less point in
picking one or other stock when they’re all rangebound, all acting the same way, all beholden
to the moves in the price of gold. So hey, why not save yourself the monthly you send to me
and just buy GDX or GDXJ if you like the future prospects of the setcor, or short those ETFs if
you don’t? Much easier than thinking.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Getting up to date on Starcore International (SAM.to)
NB: All prices in this anal ysis are in Canadian Dollars unless otherwise stated.
It’s been a while since we’ve updated on Starcore International (SAM.to), the precious metals
play operating in Mexico that doubles for our investment purposes as a small gold producer and
a “Land Grab” name collecting a bunch of interesting assets onto its books which should (or so
the theory goes) pay off nicely once this turgid market turns and mining properties are given
real value again.
With the release of not just one but three pieces of news last week (plus the fact as mentioned
above in today’s intro that there’s relly not much going on in the way of fundies in the bigger
names, aside from gold’s tidal moves) today gives an opportunity to catch up on SAM.to, run
through its numbers and consider the position at current valuations. But for those who like
their IKN fundies pieces with TL:DR summaries at the top, I’ll say that the position
is a hold as stands: There’s no reason at all to sell, there are decent reasons to
expect better share prices in the future, but by he same token I see no real reason
to jump in and add more until the stock gets a little momentum. With the market the
way it is, the world seems likely to ignore this type of small, backwater stock until the bigger
boys make a move.
As for the three pieces of recent news, here’s a quick list:
On November 16th SAM announced (1) that production for its first financial quarter of 2016
(1q16), ended October 31st, came to 5,196oz gold equivalent. This was a modest improvement
recent quarters and SAM credited the discovery of a new manto lens which in turn bumped up
2
average head grade for the improvement. We take a better look at the operating numbers
below.
On November 17th SAM announced (2) that it had raised CAD$4.5m via the sale of secured
bonds, which mature in one year and have an interest rate of 8%. Most of the cash is to be
used to kickstart the Altiplano toll milling operation (see below) by providing it with the liquidity
needed to pay ore providers upfront. The rest of the money raised will be put to work in
upgrading its operating San Martín mine, Queretaro.
On November 18th SAM announced (3) that its ‘Altiplano’ plant is about to begin production.
This is the asset it brought into its structire via the merger with Cortez Gold (ex-CUT.v) earlier
this year and is in essence a toll milling project that will service the local artisanal-style mining
companies in the locality. Production of gold and silver concentrates should start “in the next
two weeks” and we can expect it to start running at 25 tonnes per day (tpd) before ramping
towards a targeted 50tpd. This news, along with the November 17th bond issue news, gets a
little more treatment below.
With the three pieces of news in place we now move to consider how they might affect our
investment.
Operations
Our first job is to check on the latest production figures, consider them in light of previous
quarters and make a few predictions on how
they’re going to affect the company’s financials. SAM: tonnes per day throughput
90000
Starting with mill throughput (right), what
80000
strikes the casual observer is the consistency of 70000
the tonnages churned out by SAM at San 60000
Martín. The mill runs at a solid 850tpd average 50000
and the 78,016mt processed in 1q16 was 40000
30000
smack on the average for any recent quarter.
20000
10000
Recovery percentages are also consistent, these 0
guys know their local rock very well.
Here (above right) also is average gold head grade (not gold equivalent, just the gold) and we
see the bump up from recent lows of 2 g/t to last quarter’s 2.22 g/t Au. It’s still a little low
compared to historical numbers and I’d suggest there is room for improvement. To give a rough
guide for that, if we add just 0.1 g/t to the gold head grade it improves quarterly production by
over 200 oz Au. In these small ops, that’s the type of number that makes a difference.
Putting it all together, here’s the gold equivalent chart that shows the quarter back above 5k oz
AuEq, much better than the previous two quarters.
3
31.tco 41.naj 41.rpa 41.yluj 41.tco 51.naj 51.rpa 51.yluj 51.tco
tpd
source: company filings
SAM.to: Gold recovery percentage
100
95
90 89.00 88.20 86.70 86.90
84.61 84.50 85 89.00 86.00 79.30 86.90 86.30 85.60 86.60
80 83.90
81.00
75 78.40
75.00
70
69.50
65
11.yluj 11.tco 21.naj 21.rpa 21.yluj 21.tco 31.naj 31.rpa 31.yluj 31.tco 41.naj 41.rpa 41.yluj 41.tco 51.naj 51.rpa 51.yluj 51.tco
SAM.to: Avg gold head grade (g/t) per qtr
3.50
3.00
2.812.89
2.50
2.40
2.14 2.152.032.01 2.23
2.38 2.55 2.342.422.362.22
1.982.00 2.22 2.00 1.70
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
source: company filings
11.yluj 11.tco 21.naj 21.rpa 21.yluj 21.tco 31.naj 31.rpa 31.yluj 31.tco 41.naj 41.rpa 41.yluj 41.tco 51.naj 51.rpa 51.yluj 51.tco
g/t Au
source: company filings
SAM.to: Gold Equivalent produced
7500 6900 7000 6315
6500 6000
5 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 5100 5338 5749 5381 5130 5194
5000 4800 4429 4686
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
4
31.naj 31.rpa 31.yluj 31.tco 41.naj 41.rpa 41.yluj 41.tco 51.naj 51.rpa 51.yluj 51.tco
oz AuEq
source: company filings
This chart shows pure gold (not AuEq) production and presumed sales. We calculate that at
4,823oz for this quarter just gone.
SAM.to: Gold produced vs gold sold, per qtr
7000 6300
6500
6000 5600
5500 4900 5240 4998 4814 4823
4 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 4100 4315
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
31.tco 41.naj 41.rpa 41.yluj 41.tco 51.naj 51.rpa 51.yluj tse51.tco
Oz Au gold prod
gold sold
source: company filings, IKN ests for gold sold Jul'15
So much for production, now for what that production might have made SAM the company in
cashmoney terms. This first chart shows revenues numbers for recent quarters, plus our house
projection for 1q16 that’s based on full sales of production plus London Fix average prices for
both gold and silver in the quarter.
10 SAM: "Calculated" vs Reported revenues, per qtr
9 (calc revs = tonnage + grade + recovery + realized prices for gold and silver)
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
31.tco 41.naj 41.rpa 41.yluj 41.tco 51.naj 51.rpa 51.yluj tse51.tco
$m
total rev calc
total actual revs
source: SAM filings, IKN calcs, Oct15 ests
As the actual revenues number is consistently higher than the pure calc (normal, because it’s in
Loonies) we project the quarter just gone at $6.5m. That compares favourably to the previous
quarter but it’s still no great shakes compared to the $7m and $8m numbers we’ve seen before.
This calculated revenus by metal shows how SAM’s production and cash flow is dominated by
its gold production, silver’s just a minor kicker.
SAM.to: Revenue by metal
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
5
21.tco 31.naj 31.rpa 31.yluj 31.tco 41.naj 41.rpa 41.yluj 41.tco 51.naj 51.rpa 51.yluj tse51.tco
$m
silver
gold
source: company filings, IKN ests
Revenues are one thing, costs another. Let’s start with that sketchy benchmark, cash costs, but
at least it’s a benchmarker that’s run on
the same metrics each quarter at SAM,
there’s no pretence of trying to fiddle the
numbers. This chart that tracks average
realized gold price (including our
assumption for the latest quarter) and
average cash cost per AuEq Oz (ditto)
shows that the last four or five quarters
are of the same ilk. We’ve seen the
margin between these two squiggly lines
crimp, but they’ve also managed to stay
apart and that means that on a strict
operations basis at least, SAM is still cash
flow positive. This is good.
Those last couple of charts dovetail neatly into the next section.
Earnings update
As mentioned above, mine cash costs are one thing and real costs in cash terms are quite
another (for more, see the AISC critiques we’ve run recently). In the 4q15 period (to July 31st
2015) SAM registered the first negative result on mine operating earnings for a long time, with
$6.366m in revenues outgunned by $6.759m in costs. That was a bit of a bummer (and most of
it was hidden on the bottom line by some fancy dancing financials adjustments, the net loss
was only $96,000) but the good news is that thanks to the better production schedule in 1q16
(that head grade) we expect revenues to beat out COGS once again this quarter.
SAM.to: Operations overview
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1 31.tco 41.naj 41.rpa 41.yluj 41.tco 51.naj 51.rpa 51.yluj tse51.tco
SAM.to: Cash cost AuEq vs Au realized price
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
$m revenues
COGS
mine op earnings
source: SAM filings, IKN ests
This chart gives an isolated close-up of the sky blue bars above, mine op earnings:
11.yluj 11.tco 21.naj 21.rpa 21.yluj 21.tco 31.naj 31.rpa 31.yluj 31.tco 41.naj 41.rpa 41.yluj 41.tco 51.naj 51.rpa 51.yluj tse51.tco
U$/oz
Au realized price
cash cost AuEq
source: company data, IKN ests
SAM.to: Mine Operating Earnings
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
6
21.yluj 21.tco 31.naj 31.rpa 31.yluj 31.tco 41.naj 41.rpa 41.yluj 41.tco 51.naj 51.rpa 51.yluj tse51.tco
source: company filings/IKN ests
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Of course these aren’t massively SAM.to: Earnings
8
profitable figures, as this next chart 7
clearly indicates. But we expect SAM to 6
5
come in around breakeven once again. 4
And if it misses, it won’t miss by much. 3
2
The basic story here is of a mine that’s
1
ticking over and making small profit/loss, 0
-1
depending on the minor quarterly
-2
adjustments. It’ll stay that way until gold -3
starts moving back up.
Summing up both operations and
earnings, the key words here are
“consistent” and “breakeven”. At current gold (and silver) prices SAM.to isn’t making much
money for us, but neither is it fracturing cash. Its regular production schedule is notable in its
throughput, recovery percentage, head grade evolution etc (laudable in a mine this small) and
its controlled costs, but it’s nobody’s idea of a massive moneymaker either. If and when gold
prices pick up San Martín is bound to become immediately profitable. So all you need to do is
tell me when gold hits U$1,300/oz or U$1,500/oz and we’re home safe....easy eh....
The Balance Sheet
Always my personal favourite bit of a company’s financials (you’ve got your oddball things in
this crazy world and I’ve got mine), for once the balance sheet at SAM is the most interesting
bit of the puzzle. Here we get to see how the newly incorporated Cortez (ex-CUT.v) has shifted
things, as well as that new financial debt taken on board last week that’s being partly used to
fund its start-up.
We start with assets and the total of $69.2m in 4q15 (to end July) moves to an IKN estimated
$71.5m at end October with the
addition of the Altiplano fixed asset
(plus a little cash), then to an IKN
estimated $75.8m in 2q16 (to end
January 2016) once the new loan is
factored in.
As the chart right is dominated by
the fixed assets, here below is just
the cash treasury and short-term
investments columns isolated, which
gives a better idea of liquidity.
11.rpa 11.yluj 11.tco 21.naj 21.rpa 21.yluj 21.tco 31.naj 31.rpa 31.yluj 31.tco 41.naj 41.rpa 41.yluj 41.tco 51.naj 51.rpa 51.yluj tse51.tco
$m
pre-tax earnings
net earnings
source: SAM filings, IKN ests
SAM.to: Assets Breakdown per qtr
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
11.yluj 11.tco 21.naj 21.rpa 21.yluj 21.tco 31.naj 31.rpa 31.yluj 31.tco 41.naj 41.rpa 41.yluj 41.tco 51.naj 51.rpa 51.yluj tse51.tco tse61.naj
$m
cash st inv other current fixed
source: company filings, IKN ests
SAM: Cash & short-term investments
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
7
31.tco 41.naj 41.rpa 41.yluj 41.tco 51.naj 51.rpa 51.yluj tse51.tco tse61.naj
$m
source: SAM filings, IKN ests
What we see is that, in theory at least, SAM is keeping its liquidity level in a good place and
should go through to 2016 with $10m sloshing about. That’s a good thing, but it also begs the
question as to why it took out a $4.5m
loan at 8% interest last week in order to
pay for things at Altiplano. We’ll get to
that in a minute.
Here are liabilities (right). In the October
quarter these are set to jig up a little
because along with the Cortez acquisiton
came a modest net financial debt on the
CUT balance sheet. That jags higher in
January 2016 when the $4.5m loan
becomes part of the current profile.
Here below again, isolated from the above
chart, is the near-term liabilities and we
see the risk that SAM is taking on via the new one year loan. It’s one thing to have positive
working capital, another when the positives include run-of-mine stuff and the negatives include
straight pure cash debt due in less than a year.
SAM.to: Near term Liabilities per qtr
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
31.tco 41.naj 41.rpa 41.yluj 41.tco 51.naj 51.rpa 51.yluj tse51.tco tse61.naj
source: company filings/IKN ests
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SAM.to: Liabilities per qtr
50
40
30
20
10
0
SAM has used this new cash to fund its start-up at Altiplano and that’s fair enough, but it’s not
a riskless move either. The idea seems to be to use the money to pay the first ore suppliers,
get the virtuous circle moving, fund next purchases from cash flow and pay down the loan from
the operting margin at Altiplano. Sounds fine on paper and as it’s a toll-milling operation, the
type in which gross margins are baked into the business model, risks aren’t as great as they
might be in a classic gold mine. But there’s still execution risk involved and if SAM doesn’t get
this new arm up and running profitably on its schedule, things could become financially tight
towards the end of 2016 and the loan repayment looms larger. I don’t think SAM is at risk of
going out of business even in the worst of snafu cases at Altiplano (unless gold really dives
much lower anyway) but we should expect teething problems in any new produciton facility,
not just this one, so if it isn’t quite as smooth as the glossy presentation would have us believe
11.yluj 11.tco 21.naj 21.rpa 21.yluj 21.tco 31.naj 31.rpa 31.yluj 31.tco 41.naj 41.rpa 41.yluj 41.tco 51.naj 51.rpa 51.yluj tse51.tco tse61.naj
source: company filings/IKN ests
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LT debt
current debt
there’s a chance things get tight and affect corporate liquidity come next year end.
The bottom line is simple enough: SAM will be just fine if it delivers on Altiplano. It doesn’t
need a perfect, glitch-free ramp-up, just a reasonable one. If not it could find itself in a semi-
cash crunch. That’s the risk here, it’s an execution risk.
Here right is working capital, which
looks good enough and we also see
how the new debt cancels itself out on
either side of the balance and leaves
things roughly the same as before (this
may drop a little in the April 2016
period when part of the cash is used for
upgrades to fixed assets at San Martin,
but we’ll cross that bridge when we
come to it). However, hidden a little
inside this ostensibly healthy looking
chart is a cash and treasury that’s not
quite as liquid as it appears. For
example, $6.5m of that total $9.5m in working capital as at October 2015 (IKN estimated) is
covered by receiveables, inventories and pre-paids. That’s not cash liquidity, it’s the run-of-
company items that need to be on the current assets but don’t provide real world cushions to a
company. This for me is why SAM decided to raise $4.5m last week by emitting debt paper.
To round off this part of the game, here’s shares out. Due to the Cortez acquisition the number
of shares has risen to 180.614m.
SAM.to: Shares Out
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
8
01.tco 11.naj 11.rpa 11.yluj 11.tco 21.naj 21.rpa 21.yluj 21.tco 31.naj 31.rpa 31.yluj 31.tco 41.naj 41.rpa 41.yluj 41.tco 51.naj 51.rpa 51.yluj tse51.tco tse61.naj
source: company filings/IKN ests
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fo
snoillim
SAM.to: Working Capital per qtr 14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
However there’s another upmove in the pipeline for SAM’s share count, because on September
3rd the company did what amounts to a share-for-debt deal with a creditor it inherited from the
Cortez Gold buyout (the people that helped build the Altiplano facility). As explained in the
latest MD&A...
On September 3, 2015, the Company announced that it issued 15,972,810
Subscription Receipts (the “Receipts”), in full and complete settlement of outstanding
debt as at July 31, 2015 in the aggregate amount of USD $1,725 owed to certain
creditors. The Receipts were issued at a deemed price of $0.14 per Receipt.
...and that means that I’m going to assume those scrips become fully paid-up shares by the end
of January, even though they have a ticket price of 14c and we’re currently well below that. At
this point in time I feel it’s a more honest assessment to call the share count at 196.587m,
rather than the strict sense 180m and bits as at the end of the October quarter.
Derivatives and ratios
These final couple of charts are becoming regulars in our anal yses at The IKN Weekly at the
moment, as they’re a useful hack on the way that assets are being hammered by the market.
11.yluj 11.tco 21.naj 21.rpa 21.yluj 21.tco 31.naj 31.rpa 31.yluj 31.tco 41.naj 41.rpa 41.yluj 41.tco 51.naj 51.rpa 51.yluj tse51.tco tse61.naj
source company filings/IKN ests
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This first one shows the SAM share price at the end of each quarter, set against the Book Value
(i.e. total assets minus total liabilities)
of the company. Up to mid 2013 they SAM.to: share price vs book value/share
worked together in a fairly normal way 0.45
(in 2012 its San Martin operations were 0.4
0.35
nicely profitable due to the high gold
0.3
price, of course) but in 2014 and 2015 0.25
the two lines parted ways. While the 0.2
0.15
share price has dropped, BV at SAM
0.1
has increased as it has added assets to 0.05
the structure (Creston Moly, Altiplano 0
etc). SAM has collected properties and
the market doesn’t care a jot,
continuing to hit down the share price
because the only thing it really cares
about is whether its ops, small or not,
are profitable. As we’ve see, at current
prices we’re “breakeven at best” so the
apparent interest level in owning SAM
shares is marginal.
This second chart combines the two
above into a ratio. At an IKN estimated
0.32X for 1q16 (Oct’15), SAM’s assets
are now being valued at deep discount
to book (and for what it’s worth, I don’t
see much fat to cut there by way of
impairments). Yes this is a reflection of
the market and the negative sentiment,
but it’s also connected to a stock that pays its way thanks to its operations, doesn’t deplete its
cash position by much and is capable of raising the type of capex that will allow it to expand in
the next weeks and in 2016 (the Altiplano start-up, plus the scheduled San Martin
improvements)
Discussion and conclusion
The SAM decision to take on financial debt in order to kickstart the Altiplano toll milling facility
has a couple of elements to consider. Firstly, it seems to be separating it financially from the
core asset of the company, the San Martín mine, by raising separate capital and planning to pay
down the debt with the toll mill cash flow. That’s a fair strategy but it’s not a riskless trade
either. Now we’re looking at $4.5m in current financial debt, there’s a clock running on the
Altiplano facility and getting it working profitably has no comfort room, there’s cash to pay back
or else.
However, even when taking that new risk into consideration SAM looks remarkably good value
at this point and at these prices. If we assume the bigger share count (with the scrips) of
196.587m, you have a $17.7m mining company at Friday’s close of 9c and for that you’re
getting a lot for your money:
• A gold operation that might not be making oodles of cash, but it’s not a loser either and
any improvement of the gold price will see it throwing off very useful free cash flow.
• The new toll milling operaiton, about to go into production. I’ve delibrately stayed away
from making firm predictions on what that might achieve because I want to see how
the early stages of production go, what average grades it runs etc, before making a
call. What we do know is that the toll milling game is all about fixing margins and, as
long as they can do it right, positive cash fow is straightforward. What we have today is
an asset and time will tell how profitable that asset becomes, but SAM is confident
enough to raise $4.5m on the back of its plans and by the way they managed to close
9
11.yluj 11.tco 21.naj 21.rpa 21.yluj 21.tco 31.naj 31.rpa 31.yluj 31.tco 41.naj 41.rpa 41.yluj 41.tco 51.naj 51.rpa 51.yluj tse51.tco
pps at qtr end
bv/share
source: company filings, TSX, IKN calcs
SAM.to: Price/Book Ratio
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
31.naj 31.rpa 31.yluj 31.tco 41.naj 41.rpa 41.yluj 41.tco 51.naj 51.rpa 51.yluj tse51.tco
source: company data, TSX, IKN calcs
the debt deal at a reasonble 8%, others are too.
• A book of exploration stage assets that include the Creston moly deposit, picked up for
a song. We’ve talked about this one before and even though moly’s out of style the
way flared jeans or trilby hats are, it’s had a ton of exploraiton work done on it in time
and as carrying costs are minimal, SAM can afford to play the long game with that one.
• A financially solid looking company that will be able to run through a continued period
of poor prices for metals if necessary. The new debt is a bit of a worry, but away from
that specific there’s enough liquidity at the company and its ops will continue to pay for
the ehad office, at least. What this company most definitely is not is an exploreco stuck
witha finite and dwindling cash position.
As things stand today, I’m not in a rush to buy more SAM but I’m no seller either. Any marekt
improvement would be reflected in its share price, thanks largely to its production, but when
assets come back into fashion theis is a stock that will still have the sky as a limit. That means
that even if I miss the first few pennies of a recovery, there will be plenty of profit available for
the addition on a rebound.
I’m a very relaxed holder of SAM.to at these levels and in this current market. A decent
risk/reward balance and it wouldn’t take much from the amcro components to see it jump far
and fast.
Stocks to Follow
So much for the rebound reported this time last weekend, which did indeed turn out to be of
the dead cat variety. Again. Just one of our stocks made headway last week (TGM.v) and
another five remained unchanged (SAM.to, ATM.v, IRL.to suspended, FCV.v, REG.v) which
means a full eight showed losses (BTO.to, LSG.to, TGZ.to, MUX, FOS.to, SSP.v, LRA.v, DNA.to)
and the worst percentage losers came from Lara Exploration (LRA.v down 12.0%) and Teranga
Gold (TGZ.to down 8.9%).
We currently have 14 open positions in our 'Stocks to Follow' list, one below our self-imposed
15 name maximum. We’re down to just two positions in the green, all the others are in the red.
My stars I suck.
10
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICK
B2Gold BTO.to STR buy C$2.17 12-sep-14 C$1.38 -36.4% Top Pick, good 3q15
Metals Producers (in current order of preference)
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to buy C$1.07 07-apr-15 C$1.01 -5.6% Added Aug, M&A tgt
Teranga Gold TGZ.to buy C$0.55 15-feb-15 C$0.51 -7.3% 3 purchases, like under 60c
McEwen Mining MUX hold U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$0.84 -22.9% looking cheap again
Starcore Intl SAM.to hold C$0.12 10-jan-15 C$0.09 -25.0% Also "land grab", tgt 19c
Land Grab Stocks (in current order of preference)
Phoscan Chem FOS.to hold C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.25 -10.7% 35c/share of cash
Sandspring Res SSP.v spec buy C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.165 -15.4% New buy, 30c 1st tgt
Atacama Pacific ATM.v hold C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.15 -21.1% Spec buy, cheap adv proj
Lara Expl. LRA.v hold C$1.15 08-apr-12 C$0.22 -80.9% solid biz model, LT hold
Other Recommended Stocks (in current order of preference)
Dalradian Res DNA.to BUY C$0.64 27-oct-13 C$0.67 4.7% New tgt 95c to $1 Sep 20
Minera IRL IRL.to Susp. C$0.195 22-jul-12 C$0.075 -61.5% Trading suspended
True Gold TGM.v spec buy C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.21 16.7% 25c to 30c sell price tgt
Focus Ventures FCV.v hold C$0.23 01-jul-12 C$0.12 -47.8% tgt 50c, phosphate great value
Regulus Res REG.v hold C$0.30 06-apr-15 C$0.20 -33.3% Comm. Rels slow progress
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'14 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'14 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'14 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'14 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 closed positions in appendices below
Now for some notes on current basket stocks.
B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to): Just for a moment it was looking like a good week for BTO, then
Friday took all the shine off the stock’s performance (which is true for many others, of course).
This chart of the US listed BTG vs. The GDXJ juniors ETF has the story, which also includes
what’s now becoming a tradition late Friday weak moment. Ugh.
11
One good thing to take away from this is that the Mali hotel episode didn’t seem to unduly
affect company or stock. As mentioned in other places of todya’s issue, the chart for BTO could
be the chart for many a medium or even large scale precious metals play, it’s a tidal thing.
True Gold (TGM.v): One cheer for TGM, half a penny up on the week and our only winner in
the whole bunch. Without bouncing back into my idea of the right sell level, it now looks as
though “bought right” is a fair epithet for this position at 18c.
Sandspring Resources (SSP.v): Last week I swapped idea on SSP with a mining guy who
knows his way around projuects like this one. We agreed on many issues, such as the early
stages of its metalurgy work and the high looking capex for a project like this. But his view was
that the capex figure currently used was carrying a lot of fat and it would almost certainly come
in a lot lower when the feas gets updated, that’s due in 2016. I think that’s fair comment and I
also think that’s exactly why people like Frank Giustra have jumped on board SSP; they’ve done
their homework and see and big reserve of gold here that will leverage well in years to come.
My own position isn’t that involved of course, for me this is a trade and if I see my out number,
maybe 30c, I’ll take it without any fret or worry. But to get there SSP will need to follow gold
price moves, because for the time being it’s just another project, rising and falling on the same
tide as the others and not generating its own news.
Phoscan Chemicals (FOS.to): Last week FOS reported its quarter for the period ending
October 31st 2015 (4). There are some minor matters to considers, such as the minor increase
in burn rate during the last period due to the company’s strategic review, which involved hiring
consultants to do jobs and look for things, but when it’s all said and done there are only two
datapoints that really matter with this stock.
1) Its liquid asset value per share. Here are some bullets in that:
• With no debt and fixed assets now at basically zero, treasury is what matters at FOS.
• As at October 31st FOS had current assets of CAD$53.935m and working capital of
CAD$53.507m. Those figures are nearly all either straight cash or near-term liquid
investments (which are as good as cash).
• FOS has this weekend 152.529m shares outstanding.
• This means FOS has net liquid assets per share of CAD$0.35
• This weekend the stock sits at a share price of CAD$0.25
• The arbitrage to its liquid net asset value is at 40%. That’s a lot of gap.
2) Its inertia. Once again a quarter has come and gone without a move being made to deploy
that undervalued cash (and that phrase can be taken quite literally in this case), which means
value is not being added again and the chances of the share price reaching parity with the cahs
pile is slim. Those looking for a quick fix gain in FOS have been frustrated for many years and
12
until the company comes out of hibernation and does something, we’re likely to stay in the 25c
to 30c range. As things stand today FOS is a hold. It may even be a buy if you can get 25c
shares, but I probably wouldn’t buy again at my cost average of 28.5c and I certainly wouldn’t
at 30c, due to its lack of dynamics and the continued drag of the macro market in mining.
The Copper Basket
After forty-seven weeks of 2015, The Copper Basket is showing a 36.74% loss to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/15 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Reservoir Min. RMC.v 3.96 47.55 202.56 4.26 7.6%
2 Capstone Min. CS.to 2.03 381.95 158.51 0.415 -79.6%
3 NGEx Resources NGQ.to 1.17 187.71 90.10 0.48 -59.0%
4 Nevada Copper NCU.to 1.65 80.5 58.77 0.73 -55.8%
5 Copper Fox CUU.v 0.135 402.96 58.43 0.145 7.4%
6 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.27 173.65 43.41 0.25 -7.4%
7 Hot Chili Ltd HCH.ax 0.16 333.11 43.30 0.13 -21.9%
8 Western Copper WRN.to 0.68 93.68 31.85 0.34 -50.0%
9 NovaCopper NCQ.to 0.58 60.15 30.08 0.50 -13.8%
10 Panoro Minerals PML.v 0.295 220.64 26.48 0.12 -59.3%
11 Regulus Res REG.v 0.35 56.39 11.28 0.20 -42.9%
12 Metminco MNC.ax 0.008 2650 10.60 0.004 -50.0%
13 AQM Copper AQM.v 0.06 141 6.35 0.045 -25.0%
14 Catalyst Copper CCY.v 0.305 31.41 4.87 0.155 -49.2%
15 Coro Mining COP.to 0.045 159.37 3.19 0.02 -55.6%
NB: HCH.ax & MNC.ax priced in AUD$, rest CAD$ Portfolio avg -36.74%
The overall basket average hits a new low 5% The Copper Basket 2015, weekly evolution
for the year this weekend, down another 0%
1.89% on the back of the now headline- -5%
making weakness in the price of copper. -10%
Small congrats under the circumstances -15%
-20%
should go to the five stocks that managed to
-25%
eke out small gains on the week (NGQ.to,
-30%
WRN.to, CUU.v, HCH.ax, AQM.v) and the
-35%
other three that stayed unchanged (REG.v, -40%
MNC.ax, COP.to) mostly due to a lack of
interest. But the seven losers were from the
more liquid traded end of the sphere (CS.to,
RMC.v, NCU.to, PML.v, ARG.to, NCQ.to, CCY.v) and
included big percentage losses in Catalyst (CCY.v down
18.4%), Panoro (PML.v down 14.3%), Amerigo (ARG.to
down 13.8%) and most importantly Capstone (CS.to
down 9.8%) which is now back to the “yes, we’re
distressed” share price. And that’s all to do with spot
copper, people.
Talking of which, here right is the hourly chart that has
the metal down under U$2.10/lb and heading for the
crisis level, two dollars. I can’t see anything out there to
stop it from happening. As for commentary on copper
market prices, this time I’m going to leave the words to
Sergio Hernández, executive VP of Cochilco, who in an
interview with Chile’s biznews magazine Pulso last week
(5) tried to put the best face on the plunge in the price of
13
ht4naj ht81 ts1bef ht51 ts1ram ht51 ht92 ht21 ht62 ht01 ht42 ht7nuj ts12 ht5luj ht91 dn2gua ht61 ht03 ht31 ht72 ht11 ht52 ht8 dn22
source: IKN calcs
copper but couldn’t help sounding negative. The very best spin he could possibly find was...
“(The price of copper) was inside the possibilities of analysts, given a series of
international factors that have been influencing its price. However the price
drop been been of a magnitude and speed greater than expected.”
...and that’s not saying much. Especially as it was Cochilco predicting an average of U$2.80/b
for copper in 2015 as late as June this year.Hernández went on to the blame for copper’s drop
on a range of things such as “the normalization of US monetary policy” (translation: Janet hikes
in December), a new flux of supply due to come onto the market in 2016 and 2017 from mines
in Indonesia, Peru and Mexico (e.g. Las Bambas) as well as the deceleration of China’s
economy in relative terms.
Notable, when asked whether copper could continue its drop, he replied by noting the big
copper mining companies have been trying hard to reduce operating costs. That’s a long-
winded politically astute way of saying “yes, copper drops more”. For what it’s wroth, I’m forced
to agree.
Now our regular weekly warehouse comment section:
• For the second week running, the total world copper stocks number hardly budged,
clicking up by just forty-eight tonnes and finishing at 513,807 metric tonnes (mt) come
Friday.
• Shanghai stocks nudged up a little and are now at 199,288mt, just under that 200k
barrier.
• The LME saw stocks drop by 8,700mt modest 5,075mt (-3.3%) to finish at 252,325mt.
As to where that copper went...
• ....once again the new trend of seeing inflows into the system of the smallest of our
three (they’re shifting from LME?) with the Comex warehouse total up by 6,832mt
(+12.3%)to finish Friday at 62,194mt. This is now a significant portion of the world
total and the days that we consign Comex to the footnotes are now gone. There’s a
bearish looking trend emerging here, it pays to heed trends.
Here's the Shanghai-only tracker chart, which hasn’t changed much in the last three weeks. I
think that if the line punches through 200k there’s not going to be much to stop it and the all-
time record holding of just under 260k in storage will quickly come under pressure.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014/2015
260000
240000
220000
200000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
14
31'13ceD ht91 ht9 dn2ram dr32 ht31 ht4yam ht52 ht51 ht6yluj ht72 ht71 ht7 ht82 ht91 ht9 ht03 ts12 ht11 ts1bef dn22 ht51 ht5rpa ht62 ht71 ht7nuj ht82 ht91 ht9 ht03 ht02 ht11 ts1von dn22
Mt Cu
source: Cochilco
That’s all for today, unless you really want to hear another episode of “Capstone sucks”. Yeah,
thought you didn’t.
The Low Cost Producer Basket
After 47 weeks, the 2015 Low Cost Producer Basket is showing a 26.77% loss to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/15 Shares out Mkt Cap (Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Goldcorp GG 18.52 830 9.80 11.81 -36.2%
2 Newmont NEM 18.90 528.08 9.36 17.72 -6.2%
3 Barrick ABX 10.75 1164.67 8.36 7.18 -33.2%
4 Franco Nevada FNV 49.19 156.5 7.37 47.07 -4.3%
5 Agnico Eagle AEM 24.89 214.12 5.62 26.24 5.4%
6 Silver Wheaton SLW 20.33 403.75 5.07 12.55 -38.3%
7 Kinross KGC 2.82 1146.2 2.01 1.75 -37.9%
8 Buenaventura BVN 9.56 254.19 1.14 4.50 -52.9%
9 Pan American PAAS 9.20 151.64 1.01 6.66 27.6%
10 B2Gold BTG 1.62 926.68 0.95 1.03 -36.4%
all prices in U$, using NYSE ticker prices Portfolio avg -26.77%
A negative week for the basket, with three risers (NEM, SKW, AEM) and seven droppers (GG,
ABX, FNV, KGC, BVN, PAAS, BTG), but aside from yet another big leg down in Buenaventura
(BVN down 7.8%) the damage wasn’t great. Maybe I’m just getting used to it all, in “the
beatings will continue until morale improves” style.
So the overall basket average clicked back a bit but as the chart here suggests, we’re not
breaking down any further and this is the third period in which we’ve rattled around in this -
25% to -30% zone since the Northern summer.
The Low Cost Producer Basket: Weekly performance
30% and comparative to GDX control
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
15
ts13ceD ht11 ht52 ht8 dr42 ht8 dr32 ht5rpa ht91 dr3yam ht71 ts13 ht41 ht82 ht21 ht62 ht9 dr32 ht6peS ht02 ht4tco ht81 ts1von ht51
basket
gdx control
source: Google Finance, IKN calcs
Low Cost Basket: Percentage difference between
3.0% basket and GDX control, 2014
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
ts13ceD ht11 ht52 ht8 dr42 ht8 dr32 ht5rpa ht91 dr3yam ht71 ts13 ht41 ht82 ht21 ht62 ht9 dr32 ht6peS ht02 ht4tco ht81 ts1von ht51
|
source: ikn calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq data
Buenaventura (BVN): Last week it was down to a U$1.38Bn market cap, a price I considered
‘wild’. This is now down to $1.14Bn for an 800k/year gold producer, which besides that owns
nearly 20% of Cerro Verde amongst a bunch of other things Now for sure copper’s going
through a rut, but Cerro Verde will be profitable and keep churning out the metal at copper
prices much lower than these today, and for decades to come, too.
Then again, I though BVN was a raging bargain when it went under U$6. Here we are at
U$4.50. So yes it’s cheap, it’s very cheap, but it’s anyone’s guss as to where the bottom might
be now.
Regional politics
Peru Madre de Dios: A murdered environmentalist
Back in 2012, the environmentalist, anti-illegal mine activist and promoter of the formal logging
industry in the Madre de Dios region of Peru Alfredo Vracko was already receiving death threats
from illegal gold miners connected with the local and regional politicos that run the area (6).
Last week, at around 7pm on Thursday 19th November, the threats turned into acts. Here’s
how the major environmental news website Mongabay reported on the murder in English (7)
while more detailed Spanish language reports in Peru’s national daily El Comercio (8) (9) are
also available. Here’s Mongabay:
Another prominent environmentalist has been killed in Peru.
On Thursday night, Alfredo Ernesto Vracko Neuenschwander, a woodworker
who led a movement to resist forest invasions by illegal gold miners in Peru’s
biodiverse Tampopata region, was gunned down at his home along the
Interoceanic Highway in La Pampa, Madre de Dios, reports INFOREGIÓN.
Vracko was 58.
Illegal gold miners are suspected to be responsible for the murder, according
to INFOREGIÓN. Vracko had faced down many threats from miners,
especially after he formed FEFOREMAD, an association of woodworkers to
defend forest concessions in La Pampa. But despite his efforts, he reportedly
received little help from Peruvian authorities.
Alfredo Vracko’s Facebook profile picture.Vracko joins a growing list of
Peruvian environmentalists and indigenous leaders who have been killed for
trying to protect their homes and livelihoods. According to a report published a
year ago by Global Witness, at least 57 activists were killed between 2002
and 2014.
Guatemala and Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to)
Luis Solano is from Guatemala and is a journalist and writer. He’s been on tour through the
country and in Canada recently promoting his new work (10), “Curfew: The Pacific Resistance
to Canadian Mining and Militarization in Guatemala” (original Spanish title ““Estado de sitio”
resistencia pacífica a la minera canadiense y a la militarización en Guatemala””, and the main
target for his presentation and writings is the Escobal mine run by Tahoe Resources (THO.to)
(TAHO). In it he catalogue an array of worngdoings by TAHO at Escobal, including false flag
operations against locals opposign the mine, police and army violence, blind eyes turned by the
Otto Pérez Molina admininstration, the continued militarization of the locality, the dubious way
in which the permits were granted to the mining company etc. I think this is interesting mainly
due to the timing, what with the new Jimmy Morales administration about to take over. This
journalist has done a lot of work on the story and if the new Morales government decides it
wants a test case for corruption in the Pérez Molina era, it will get plenty of grist for its mill
here.
I’ll also repeat here that I don’t know which way the incoming President Jimmy Morales is going
to lean onisues such as this, but he has at least campaigned on a “clean up this town” platform
and there’s no real way of knowing how his admin is going to go until it starts. But I will say
that the potential for a serious Black Swan event for TAHO is high and as a consequence I
avoid this stock and the hype that surrounds it very easily.
16
Colombia Segovia
The latest from Segovia and the brewing conflict between Gran Colombia Gold (GCM.to) and
the local co-operative miners (11) is that there’s a suspension of any strike action while fact-
finding missions are carried out by both parties and by the regional government of Antioquia.
Once that period is done, a new meeting between all three parties is due to take place on
December 10th in order to attempt to thrash out a deal. At this point we have no idea what that
would entail or its chances of success, but at least the opposite sides are keeping cool heads
about it all and there’s no violentce or striking at the moment. Not a bad thing, let’s see how it
unfolds in December.
Colombia: The Atico Mining news release this week
Colombia constantly claims that it’s sorting out its mining sector and is a safe, miner-friendly
place to go work. What then to make of the announcement from Atico Mining (ATY.v) last
Wednesday (12):
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - Nov 18, 2015) - Atico Mining
Corporation (the "Company" or "Atico") (TSX VENTURE:ATY)(OTC PINK:ATCMF)
advises that the Colombian subsidiary Minera El Roble S.A. has received notice of a
claim from the mining authority in Colombia requesting payment of royalties related to
past copper production.
The mining authority is basing its claim on the current mining law, which is subsequent
to the prevailing mining law under which Minera El Roble S.A. executed the contract
regulating its royalty obligations. The current mining law in Colombia explicitly states
that it does not affect contracts executed prior to this law entering into force. Therefore,
the Company and its legal counsel's position is that the authorities claim is not
legitimate and the Company has complied rigorously with its royalty payments due and
called for under the current contractual obligations.
The claim of approximately $2 million USD is at an administrative level and the
Company will attempt to favorably resolve the claim at this level, and if necessary, will
vigorously defend itself should legal action be required.
Or as I put it to a reader and regular mailpal as a reply when he also picked up on the same
story, mailed in and echoed my private opinions...
“That's exactly what i thought on reading it yesterday. I mean, $2m is a
pain in the butt for a smallish miner like Atico, but it's never going to kill
the company. However the optics from the Colombia tax people and
therefore the govt and the country as "miner friendly" are just awful.”
It’s long past the time when Colombia stops merely talking the talk about being a mining
friendly jurisdiction and starts walking the walk.
Dominican Republic: Christian group calls for closure of Barrick Pueblo Viejo
I doubt this is any sort of serious or active threat to the mine at the moment, particularly as the
Dominican Republic government are very keen on its continuation (and getting the decent sized
17
royalty cheques), but it’s interesting enough to show you and does speak of the grassroots
opposition to mining in Dom Rep. Those of you thinking of joining Ron McEwen and jumping on
the GoldQuest (GQC.v) bandwagon may want to consider this, too.
Last Thursday (13) the religious group “Paz Dominicana” called for the halt of mining operations
at the Barrick Pueblo Viejo mine (60% ABX/ 40% GG) via a filing made to the Dom Rep
parliament. The groups spokesperson said, “We demand that work is stopped at this mine, as it
is significantly affect the local populations.” Paz Dominicana said that pollution from the mine
had adversely affected the health of hundreds of locals, including deaths. It accused the
company of using the local water supply “indiscriminately”, when it should only be for the
consumption of local population.
Mexico: Torex Gold (TXG.to) and the ejidos
In an interview published in the magazine “Mine Latin America” this week (14), Andrés Recalde,
the director of government relations at Torex Gold (TXG.to) had some interesting and wholly
positive comments to make about the “Ejido” system of land ownership among locals in Mexico.
He said (translated), “The success of the project we have in Guerrero is due to the
revolutionaries, Emiliano Zapata and Francisco “Pancho” Villa, because they establishd and
model of land ownership with legal clarity, so that all “ejidos” (local community land owner
groups) know their obligations and rights toward the land”. He went on to say that the system
in Mexico is superior to that in places such as (his exmaple countries) Peru or Dominican
Republic because ownership rights are ofen in doubt due to the registration processes and
mining companies will often have to buy surface rights from multiple people in different deals,
but (translated), “...on the other hand in Mexico it’s very clear, the “ejido” owners cannot sell
the land, only rent it out. For the Canadian mining companies it’s an advantage that in Mexico
there’s a clear vision of land ownership (right), this is a great help.”
Brazil: The Samarco tailings dam failure story continues
Another week in which this story was largely ignored by the North and made big headlines in
Brazil and the South. Four things to offer you in this update.
1) Andrew Mackenzie, CEO of BHP, said that the company is committed to make Samarco a
working min again and will not abandon the project. As Reuters pithily noted last week (15)
(good ongoing reporting job from those guys, one of the very few) BHP did exactly that and
walked away from the OK Tedi mine in Papua New Guinea when the tailings dam there failed
and the Fly River was polluted.
2) IKN learns that the engineering company which supervised the engineering work and design
of the Samarco tailings dams, as well as other tailings dams at the many large-scale iron ore
mines in the Minas Gerais State of Brazil since 1996, is Robertson GeoConsultants (RGC) of
Vancouver. As its website points out (16):
.
“Samarco Mine - Technical Reviewer and Auditor for all tailings dams and
waste rock piles for this large iron ore mining complex in Brazil (Samarco
Mineração, S.A.). (1996 - present)”
We feel that RGC isn’t going to have a great 2016.
3) The Federal Public Ministry of Brazil (MPF) is a bigboy ministry that’s not to be messed with.
On Friday it gave The Samarco mine company 24 hours to stop the advance of some 50 million
cubic metres of toxic mud that was now threatening to make it to the mouth of the local
tributary and directly contaminate the much bigger Doce River. According to reports (17) the
MPF demands “...immediate action from Samarco in order to avoid an unprecedented
environmental catastrophe”.
4) To that end, a judge has ordered a fine of R$10m (U$2.66m) per day against Samarco until
such time as there’s a guarantee that the pollution will not be able to reach the sea (18).
18
As we keep mentioning both here and on the blog, this is not a story that will go away if you
ignore it up there.
Market Watching
Almaden Minerals (AMM.to) (AAU) finances
Last week in the piece on Almaden (AAU) (AMM.to) that noted my interest in the stock as a
potential trade on a beaten up gold exploreco name, we finished with these words:
“... AMM will need to go to market and raise cash at some point in the near
future. This is why I’m not yet a buyer of this but once its financing is
announced and the terms of the deal are known (as well as how it’s received
by the market) it’s one that can again be actively considered as a trade
potential.”
And as if by magic, on Tuesday 17th November AMM came out with (19)...
VANCOUVER, BC--(Marketwired - November 17, 2015) - Almaden Minerals
Ltd. ("Almaden" or the "Company") (AMM.TO)(NYSE MKT: AAU) is pleased to
announce that it has closed a non-brokered private placement involving the
issuance of 4,506,666 units ("Units") at $0.75 per Unit (continues)
...an unexpected financing and one that company president Morgan Poliquin described as a
balance between the need for cash and the avoidance of too much dilution. And that’s fair
comment and fair enough, as it comes from a team that’s always been very careful about
things like excess share count dilution. They also have plenty of their own skin in their game.
The $3.38m raised give the company what I’d consider reasonable tick-over cash that will see it
al through 2016 if necessary. It puts the shares outstanding count up to 77.66m, which in turn
makes market cap this weekend some CAD$54.36m. We could back out treasury and play at EV
if you like, but as the cash at bank is going to be used eventually I see little point in that line so
overall, Ixtaca today is being valued at that number, CAD$54m or so. That’s not dirt cheap
(pardon the pun) for a gold project in today’s market, but it is one that’s a cut above most of
the dross out there and is certainly more advanced.
Today’s market is a total drudge, with zero interest among the wider investment community in
trading the explorecos, even less than there is for the producers large medium or small. I’ve
alreayd played a few trades that bet on the “Land Grab” idea, with the latest being Sandspring
(SSP.v) because that one is indeed at dirt cheap levels already. What I see here with AMM,
strategically speaking at least, is two ways to play:
a) A stock you could buy today and forget about for a while if necessary be prepared for any
near-term weakness in order to win in the long-run, or...
b) ...a stock that should get perky once gold makes a more decisive rally (let’s pencil in a
number North of U$1,200/oz, for rough argument’s sake).
As of this weekend I’m in the b) camp, as I own other things that deploy capital in the same
way as any investment in AMM would do, plus I’m a bit bored with suffering through these
near-term losses (see SSP.v) before they start showing fruits and see no reason why I need to
add another to the list. Ixtaca is a decent deposit with a lot of serious work done on its
development designed to attract a real buyer (rather than the fakey type of work designed to
throw sequins in the eyes of the general market) and as such, must be somewhere on some
company’s potential shopping list. If and when this market turns, it’s one that will be at the top
of any new shopping list and if you find yourself in a different position than I on this pleasant
19
and warm Sunday afternoon in November, I wouldn’t stop you from taking a bite of it next
week at the current decent 70c entry price. But for me and for the time being, I’ll watch and
wait on the sidelines.
Sunridge Gold (SGC.v) again
Just as a matter of record, I did indeed take the plunge and bought a few (not many) SGC.v
last week at what I consider a really good
risk/reward pice for the potential arbitrage,
24c. This isn’t going to be one of the formal
recos in the ‘Stocks to Follow’ list, consider it
one of the occasional and infrequent ‘side
bets’ that happen on these pages.
I plan to hold them through the New Year
period and to the shareholders’s decision
meeting due in January, at which I will vote
for the distribution option if, as expected, it’s
offered. However, if in the meantime SGC
shares take a hike higher and move towards
the likely 35c-or-so final deal price, I’d also
consider selling early and banking the small
arb win. To give an idea of that, 30c by Christmas would probably be enough (an ex-comms
25% win).
Minera IRL (MIRL.L) (IRL.to): Style over substance in the Team Hodges community
dirty tricks campaign
I’m impressed as to the lengths Team Hodges has gone in trying to make out that the Ollachea
community is split. Those lengths were shown to the world in the Team Hodges news release
out Saturday (20) that was featured on the blog that evening.
I’m also impressed that people are actually buying into their cock and bull story. Not just your
average Joe either, this smear campaign and montage of lies has shown signs of suckering in
some hefty financial hitter.
Which is why I’ve guarded my tongue on this whole matter. And it’s also why this edition of The
IKN Weekly has been waiting for the official news release from Team Benavides on the false
flag events of last week in Ollachea. That’s now available and here it is, for your consideration.
Investigation by the Ministry of Energy and Mines During Visit to
Ollachea Finds Acts of Social Disruption and Illegitimacy of Published
Statements
Lima, 23 November 2015, Minera IRL SA reports that a visit by a
representative of the Ministry of Energy and Mining to the Community of
Ollachea, where the Ollachea Gold Project is located, found acts of social
disruption had been instigated by the non Executive President of Minera IRL
Limited and that illegitimate statements supposedly representing the
Community had been published by the same individual.
• A specialist representative for the region of Puno from the Ministry of
Energy and Mining visited the Community of Ollachea last Saturday
21 of November, interviewing community members and
representatives of Company Minera Kuri Kullu, (a subsidiary of
Minera IRL SA), demonstrating the illegitimacy of a supposed
community statement that non executive President Jaime Pinto
promoted and made public through a press release.
20
• The issued statement and other acts of disturbing public peace, public
defamation, usurping of functions, and acts against public faith were
promoted by Jaime Pinto and Don McIver, VP of Exploration, with
the objective of trying to obtain favourable votes in the upcoming
shareholders EGM to be held on November 26.
• The details of these actions will be made known in the near
future and the legally recognized authorities of the Rural
Community of Ollachea will file criminal charges. The
Ministry of Energy and Mining, through their office of Social
Affairs, has been informed from the visit to Ollachea of all of
these actions, and along with proof and testimonies, will be
conducting their own investigation.
“We are shocked by the mistreatment and perverse approach of Mr Pinto
towards the Community of Ollachea. We commit all our efforts to restore the
trust and commitment that the Community and Company have built and
maintained over 8 years, that have permitted us to achieve all our permitting
and financing for the Ollachea Gold Project. We hope to recuperate the lost
time due to the stress of the Company, in order to shortly begin construction,”
stated Diego Benavides, President of Minera IRL SA and Minera Kuri Kullu
SA.
The Rural Community of Ollachea rejects and declares null and void
the Declaration of Minera IRL Ltd (published in its press release of the
21 of November), as its contents do not reflect the position of the
Community, do not have the authorization of the Community
President nor the General Assembly of the Community, who are the
only bodies authorized to express the views of the Community. What
is more, the Declaration of Minera IRL Ltd contains one or more
falsified signatures which have been proven by comparing them to
those in the Official Registry of Community Members, which has a
total of 760 persons registered.
The use by Mr Pinto and Mr McIver of a small group of community
members, known for their negative approach and desire for personal
gain, to intimidate and threaten signatures from local people, has been
denounced by the Community to the Ministry of Energy and Mining.
Mr. Pinto is currently under investigation for corruption by the Second
Provincial Fiscal Court Specialized in Crimes of Functionary
Corruption (2da Fiscalía Provincial Penal Especializada en Delitos de
Corrupción de Funcionarios), regarding the loss for the State of Peru of
some U$50m due to the purchase of sovereign debt during Mr. Pinto’s
time at the Ministry of Economy and Finances (MEF).
Also, during his time as Executive Chairman of Mantaro Peru SA, a
subsidiary of Stonegate Agricom of the Sprott Group, Canada, Mr.
Pinto supervised actions of agitation and division among neighbouring
21
communities to a phosphate project in the Central highlands of Peru,
which resulted in the permanent paralyzation of the project.
Mr Don McIver currently faces charges brought by Peru’s Criminal
Investigation Directorate (Dirección Investigación Criminal DIRINCRI)
for the illicit appropriation and disposal of assets of Minera IRL SA.
Along with Mr. Carlos Yrigoyen, Controller, and Yuri Valdiviezo,
Head of Exploration, it is alleged that Mr. McIver appropriated and
destroyed the exploration drill core of the Corihuarmi mine, valued at
over U$1m, in an action connected to the intention of the current Board
to close the Corihuarmi mine, the only source of income of the
company. The destruction of the drill core has impeded the continued
geological model of the deposit.
In conclusion, the Community of Ollachea exhorts Mr Pinto and Mr
McIver to abstain from continuing with this campaign of defamation
and public disorder in regard to the decisions of the Community.
Also, the Community wishes to inform that on November 28 it will
hold a General Community Assembly to report on legal actions to be
pursued and to make decisions regarding the group of Community
members who were bribed in order to generate dissent in the
Community.
For further information contact: minera@irl.com.pe
What I will say about this is that the subtlety of the involvement of the Ministry of the Economy
may be lost on the average punter, but it won’t be lost on anyone with any nous about how
Peru works and what it means. The bottom line here is that The Ministry of Energy and Mines’
social management desk has had more than enough of the rabble-rousing and the people
behind it, led by the non-executive chair Jaime Pinto, are in big trouble. As a company head
Jaime Pinto is now radioactive on a Fukushima level, untouchable and unapproachable. The
only question remaining is whether the outside world works out how poisonous he is before or
after the EGM, because afterwards it willl be to late to save themselves or the project.
.
Conclusion
IKN341 is done, we end with a few bullet points:
• A last call: If you haven’t voted your IRL proxy yet, you have until the morning of the
24th Americas time to do so If you have any shares and would like to vote them I and
the Team Benavides people would happy to guide you through the simple process, so
just get in touch. The good news, the REALLY good news is that by this time next week
the whole EGM show will be over and IRL will be able to get back to being a mining
company, rather than a football.
• The election in Argentina today is a very important one, not just for the country but for
the region. A Macri win will be rightly seen as a shift of political balance to the right for
South America as a whole. A Scioli win will mean something in the vicinity of ‘business
as usual’. It’s a fascinating contest and I predict that we won’t have anything we can
consider a “winner” until tomorrow Monday.
22
• Same as last week, Sunridge Gold (SGC.v) looks good on the arb. But this time I speak
as a (small) shareholder of the company.
• The mining sector remains in the grip of gold price moves and the comments made on
B2Gold today could have been written for Lake Shore, Ternaga or a whole host of
other names.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Otto
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) http://www.starcore.com/s/news-releases.asp?ReportID=730367
(2) http://www.starcore.com/s/news-releases.asp?ReportID=730525
(3) http://www.starcore.com/s/news-releases.asp?ReportID=730680
(4) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/phoscan-chemical-announces-results-quarter-223901106.html
(5) http://www.portalminero.com/pages/viewpage.action?pageId=105710412
(6) http://www.peruthisweek.com/news-suspended-congressman-linked-to-peru-illegal-miners-protest-11687
(7) http://news.mongabay.com/2015/11/environmentalist-gunned-down-by-illegal-miners-in-peru/
(8) http://elcomercio.pe/peru/madre-de-dios/madre-dios-asesinan-3-disparos-concesionario-madera-noticia-1857851
(9) http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/articulo/mundo/2015/11/21/asesinan-activista-contra-mineria-ilegal-en-peru
(10) http://movimientom4.org/2015/11/estado-de-sitio-resistencia-pacifica-a-la-minera-canadiense-y-a-la-militarizacion-
en-guatemala/
(11) http://aminera.com/index.php/mineria-internacional/item/14755-colombia-plan-para-poner-fin-a-la-crisis-minera.html
(12) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/atico-mining-corporation-corporate-134531103.html
(13) http://elveedordigital.com/ciudadania/item/28725-paz-dominicana-solicita-el-cese-de-operaciones-mineras-barrick-
gold
(14) http://sipse.com/mundo/estructura-ejidal-en-mexico-da-certidumbre-a-mineras-extranjeras-178973.html
(15)
http://www.portalminero.com/display/NOT/2015/11/19/Brasil%2C+BHP+Billiton+no+planea+dejar+Samarco+tras+accid
ente+minero
(16) https://www.rgc.ca/?page=page&id=22
(17) http://www.portalminero.com/pages/viewpage.action?pageId=105710439
(18) http://brasil.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,justica-determina-que-samarco-impeca-chegada-da-lama-ao-mar-multa-
e-de-r-10-mi-ao-dia,10000002419
(19) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/almaden-minerals-ltd-announces-closing-211700069.html
(20) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/minera-irl-limited-reports-ollachea-001736431.html
23
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2014
Closed in 2014 closed close price
Fortuna Silver FVI.to jan'14 C$2.80 23-dic-13 C$3.19 13.9% small ST trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to jan'14 C$2.06 07-jun-13 C$2.30 11.7% trading position finally closed
Network Expl. NET.v feb'14 C$0.01 22-jul-12 C$0.005 -50.0% position closed, did nothing
Tahoe Resources TAHO feb'14 U$13.10 08-abr-13 U$21.72 -65.8% short closed due to reality
Darwin Res DAR.v mar'14 C$0.10 14-jul-12 C$0.045 -55.0% tiny risk play dropped
B2Gold BTO.to mar'14 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.35 9.1% closed to free up capital
Pretium Res PVG mar'14 U$5.38 22-nov-13 U$6.50 -20.8% short closed as port longer
Gold Res Corp GORO may'14 U$5.07 26-ene-14 U$4.12 16.7% took profit
Bear Creek Min BCM.v may'14 C$1.63 23-mar-14 C$2.05 25.8% Took profit, sm near-term win
Eco Oro Min. EOM.to aug'14 C$0.48 22-sep-13 C$0.26 -45.8% sold small loser to make room
True Gold TGM.v sep'14 C$0.395 02-feb-14 C$0.41 3.8% M&A won't happen, sold
Santacruz Silver SCZ.v sep'14 C$1.04 26-ene-14 C$0.86 -17.3% silver/M&A spec, rel. small
Timmins Gold TGD nov'14 U$1.38 09-abr-14 U$0.99 -28.3% failed trade, sell, raise cash
Kinross Gold KGC nov'14 U$2.90 20-oct-14 U$2.15 -25.9% V small trade, didn't work, chau
Salazar Res SRL.v hold C$0.28 02-mar-14 C$0.145 -48.2% lost China sponsor
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2013
Closed in 2013 closed close price
USA Graphite USGT feb'13 U$0.93 08-ene-13 U$0.17 81.7% short tgt made/trade closed
Lachlan Star LSA.to feb'13 C$1.50 30-sep-12 C$0.95 -36.7% sold to reduce port risk
United Silver USC.to mar'13 C$0.21 28-oct-12 C$0.095 -54.8% small Ag sector trade, failed
Aurcana Corp AUN.v apr'13 C$1.07 11-nov-12 C$0.55 -48.6% closed on poor YE results
Gold Res Corp GORO apr'13 U$14.11 25-ene-13 U$9.38 33.5% short tgt made/trade closed
Marlin Gold MLN.v apr'13 C$0.075 10-feb-13 C$0.065 -13.3% closed trade
Bear Creek BCM.v may'13 C$2.58 01-abr-13 C$2.40 -7.0% near-term, time ran out
Lupaka Gold LPK.to may'13 C$1.12 23-oct-11 C$0.32 -71.4% towel thrown in
Tahoe Resources TAHO may'13 U$18.62 08-abr-13 U$14.70 21.1% took profit on ST short
OceanaGold OGC.to jun'13 C$3.03 16-sep-12 C$1.18 -61.1% sold on gold drop
IMPACT Silver IPT.v jun'13 C$1.14 13-ene-13 C$0.62 -45.6% sold on silver drop
Duran Ventures DRV.v jun'13 C$0.045 10-may-13 C$0.025 -44.4% ST trade never worked
Plata Latina PLA.v jun'13 C$0.79 10-abr-12 C$0.13 -83.5% closed
Bellhaven BHV.v jun'13 C$0.065 03-jun-13 C$0.12 84.6% closed ST trade
B2Gold BTO.to aug'13 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.44 12.1% sold 1/2 to raise cash
Colossus Min. CSI.to aug'13 C$0.72 24-jul-13 C$0.79 9.7% closed thru nerves on future
Pretium Res PVG.to aug'13 C$8.20 11-jun-13 C$10.14 23.7% closed to raise cash
Bear Creek BCM.v sep'13 C$2.06 30-may-13 C$2.20 6.8% sold on pol risk decision
MAG Silver MVG oct'13 U$7.00 12-sep-13 U$5.62 19.6% near-term short
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'13 U$9.52 03-may-13 U$4.98 47.7% short tgt made, covered
AQM Copper AQM.v oct'13 C$0.31 16-oct-11 C$0.125 -59.7% closed failed trade
First Majestic AG nov'13 U$11.51 07-nov-13 U$10.50 8.8% v near term short, closed
Fortuna Silver FSM nov'13 U$4.00 07-nov-13 U$3.68 8.0% v near term short, closed
Primero PPP nov'13 U$5.70 07-nov-13 U$5.75 -0.9% v near term short, closed
Starcore Intl SAM.to nov'13 C$0.235 08-sep-13 C$0.17 -27.7% ST trade didn't work, sm loss
B2Gold BTO.to dec'13 C$2.22 28-nov-12 C$2.16 -2.7% closed ST trade to raise cash
24
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2012
Closed in 2012 closed close PPS
Soltoro SOL.v jan'12 C$0.87 07-nov-11 C$0.94 8.0% cash moved to BCM.v
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to feb'12 C$0.84 13-oct-10 C$0.98 16.7% trade closed on ELG.v offer
Minefinders MFN feb'12 U$11.68 17-nov-11 U$14.80 26.7% target made, trade closed
Iron Creek IRN.v mar'12 C$0.58 26-sep-10 C$0.31 -46.6% time up on small bad trade
U.S. Silver USA.to apr'12 C$2.18 15-mar-12 C$1.86 -14.7% ST trade no good, cut loss
Augusta Res. AZC.to may'12 C$3.10 29-jan-12 C$2.07 -33.2% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Bellhaven BHV.v may'12 C$0.50 22-sep-10 C$0.28 -44.0% new mgmt not impressive
Zincore Metals ZNC.to may'12 C$0.325 29-jul-11 C$0.17 -47.7% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Soltoro SOL.v may'12 C$0.70 18-mar-11 C$0.41 -41.4% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
U.S. Silver USA.to aug'12 C$1.78 27-jul-12 C$1.36 -23.6% fail ST trade close pre split
Estrella Gold EST.v aug'12 C$0.91 27-mar-11 C$0.14 -84.6% Closed on port realignment
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'12 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.32 397.2% sell call $6.17/ Mar25
Strait Minerals SRD.v oct'12 C$0.125 09-dec-11 C$0.12 -4.0% closing coverage til FY13
Sunward Res SWD.to oct'12 C$1.47 13-mar-11 C$1.21 -17.7% sold, took loss
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'12 U$21.47 09-sep-12 U$17.40 19.0% Short trade closed
Yellowhead Min. YMI.to nov'12 C$1.00 01-apr-12 C$0.63 -37.0% sold, took loss
Primero Mining PPP nov'12 U$7.26 07-oct-12 U$6.73 7.3% Short trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v nov'12 C$3.38 07-nov-11 C$3.72 10.1% Took small profit
Vena Resources VEM.to dec'12 C$0.70 31-may-09 C$0.18 -74.3% Failed trade (caps F)
Galway Res GWY.v dec'12 C$2.19 24-nov-12 C$2.30 5.0% closed good ST arb trade
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2011
Closed in 2011 closed close PPS
Sunward Res SWD.v jan'11 C$1.05 21-nov-10 C$1.63 55.2% target made, trade closed
Serengeti Res SIR.v mar'11 C$0.245 05-dec-10 C$0.285 16.3% sold pre-tgt, ST trade fail
Fronteer Gold FRG apr'11 U$2.37 03-may-09 U$15.24 543.0% buyout, trade closed
Minefinders MFN apr'11 U$9.09 07-nov-10 U$16.89 85.8% target made, trade closed
Metalline Min. MMG may'11 U$1.04 26-jan-11 U$0.89 -14.4% exit, resource disappointed
Peregrine Met PGM.to jul'11 C$0.87 06-mar-11 C$2.60 198.9% buyout offer, closed
Dynasty Metals DMM.to jul'11 C$4.20 03-may-09 C$2.85 -32.1% Sold. Fail. Move on.
Aura Silver AUU.v aug'11 C$0.22 13-oct-10 C$0.16 -36.4% Bad pick. Take loss
U.S. Silver USA.v aug'11 C$0.52 26-jan-11 C$0.71 36.5% closed to make room
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'11 C$2.80 12-may-11 C$4.27 52.5% target made, trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v sep'11 C$3.80 27-may-11 C$4.17 9.7% macro sell call victim
Minefinders MFN sep'11 U$14.70 10-aug-11 U$15.15 3.1% macro sell call victim
Great Panther GPR.to sep'11 C$3.03 22-aug-11 C$2.64 -12.9% macro sell call victim
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'11 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.36 400.9% sold 20%, macro sell call
Focus Ventures FCV.v nov'11 C$0.40 20-apr-10 C$0.20 -50.0% cut losses, bad trade
Regulus Res. REG.v dec'11 C$1.17 14-aug-11 C$0.52 -55.6% cut on news of poor 43-101
2009 and 2010 closed positions in appendices below
25
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2010
Closed in 2010 closed close PPS
B2Gold Corp BTO.to Jan'10 C$0.88 08-nov-09 C$1.49 68.2% target made, trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v Jan'10 C$0.18 23-aug-09 C$0.40 122.2% target made, trade closed
MAG Silver MVG mar'10 U$5.60 23-nov-09 U$7.28 30.0% closed in pdac week
Riverside Res RRI.v mar'10 C$0.435 20-sep-09 C$0.60 37.9% closed in pdac week
Amarillo Gold AGC.v mar'10 C$0.81 31-may-09 C$0.70 -13.6% closed in pdac week
B2Gold Corp BTO.to apr'10 C$1.24 18-feb-10 C$1.50 21.0% target made, trade closed
Lumina Copper LCC.v apr'10 C$0.84 14-jun-09 C$1.55 51.2% total position now sold
Troy Resources TRY.to may'10 C$1.10 03-may-09 C$2.25 104.5% sold on negative results
AuEx Ventures XAU.to may'10 C$2.51 24-may-09 C$3.38 34.7% trade closed
Nevada Copper NCU.to jun'10 C$3.27 14-mar-10 C$2.03 -37.9% need to lower Cu exposure
Carpathian Gold CPN.to jun'10 C$0.39 14-mar-10 C$0.35 -10.3% too exposed to cap raising
Amerix PM Corp APM.v jun'10 C$0.065 08-nov-09 C$0.05 -23.1% victim of macro bear
Antares Minerals ANM.v jun'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$2.10 47.9% sold half
Vena Resources VEM.to jun'10 C$0.37 31-may-09 C$0.23 -37.8% sold half
Minera Andes MAI.to sep'10 C$0.75 28-jul-10 C$0.95 26.7% ST trade closed
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to sep'10 C$0.52 01-aug-10 C$0.75 44.2% target made, trade closed
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'10 C$1.45 25-may-10 C$2.01 34.5% target made, trade closed
Blue Sky Uran BSK.v oct'10 C$0.41 19-may-10 C$0.22 -46.3% v small v bad trade closed
Dia Bras Expl DIB.v oct'10 C$0.14 30-aug-09 C$0.35 150.0% target made, trade closed
S. Amer. Silver SAC.to nov'10 C$1.38 24-oct-10 C$1.60 -15.9% loss on short, small fail
Ventana Gold VEN.to nov'10 C$7.92 27-jun-10 C$13.51 70.6% trade closed on buyout
Lumina Copper LCC.v nov'10 C$1.42 11-aug-10 C$3.65 157.0% trade closed
Antares Minerals ANM.v dec'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$8.40 491.5% trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.v dec'10 C$0.69 23-mar-10 C$2.16 213.0% trade closed
Coro Mining COP.to dec'10 C$0.585 03-oct-10 C$1.24 112.0% target made, trade closed
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2009
Closed positions closed closing PPS
Cardero Res CDY/CDU.to May'09 U$1.20 03-May-09 U$0.87 -27.5% sold on negative news
Eastmain Res. ER.to May'09 C$1.04 06-May-09 C$1.315 26.4% trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v May'09 C$0.165 03-May-09 C$0.235 42.4% trade closed
Latin Amer Min. LAT.v May'09 C$0.12 03-May-09 C$0.158 29.2% trade closed
Aquiline Res. AQI.to July'09 C$2.03 16-Jun-09 C$1.68 -17.2% took loss, bad timing
Chariot Resources CHD.to Aug'09 C$0.20 12-Jul-09 C$0.415 107.5% trade closed
Castle Gold CSG.v Sep'09 C$0.64 02-Aug-09 C$0.60 -6.3% ST trade didn't work out
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to Sep'09 C$2.30 12-May-09 C$4.50 95.7% profit taken
Los Andes Copper LA.v Sep'09 C$0.09 21-Jun-09 C$0.09 0% trade closed
Pediment Gold PEZ.to Oct'09 C$0.80 09-Aug-09 C$1.00 25.0% trade closed
Minera Andes MAI.to Oct'09 C$0.68 03-May-09 C$0.71 4.4% too much bad news
Dynasty Metals DMM.to Nov'09 C$4.18 03-May-09 C$6.01 43.8% half sold
Rusoro Mining RML.v Nov'09 C$0.55 03-May-09 C$0.57 3.6% underperformed
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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