IKN #338Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 338, November 1st 2015
Contents
This Week: A somewhat reduced IKN Weekly today, US Jobs report Friday.
Fundamental Analysis: Lake Shore Gold (LSG.to) (LSG) and Teranga Gold (TGZ.to) (TGZ.ax)
third quarter financials analysis.
Stocks to Follow: Overview, Sandspring Resources (SSP.v), Timmins Gold (TMM.to) (TGD),
True Gold (TGM.v), McEwen Mining (MUX.to) (MUX), Focus Ventures (FCV.v), B2Gold (BTO.to)
(BTG), Starcore Intl (SAM.to).
Copper Basket: Overview,
Low Cost Producer Basket: Overview.
Regional Politics: Argentina: The second round.
Market Watching: Minera IRL (MIRL.L) (IRL.to) quick update, Buenaventura (BVN), New Gold
(NGD).
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
A somewhat reduced IKN Weekly today
I’ve had some personal, strictly non-work matters to cover this weekend and time’s been a big
constraint. As a result this edition of the Weekly doesn’t have as much Regional Politics or
Market Watching content, plus the Copper Basket and Low Cost Producer Basket pieces are
basically bare bones. What we concentrate on are the main events of the Teranga Gold (TGZ)
and Lake Shore Gold (LSG) quarters and analyses.
US Jobs report Friday
We saw gold get slapped a little last week (though be far less than you’d imagine if you listened
to the shock-scream bizpress) by the FOMC release on Wednesday (Gary Biiwii always talks
about the Kabuki Theatre aspect of it and he’s right) then the US Q3 GDP number Thursday.
Which sets the scene for what’s bound to be framed as a “key jobs report” on Friday, so the
usual advice to tune into Calculated Risk and follow the pre-number chatter and adjusted
expectations is made here. As things stand today according to the wonderful Mr. McBride (he’s
got my back on US macro), consensus is for (1) +190k jobs added and a headline
unemployment rate of 5.0% (though consensus tends to be refined during the week).
1

Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Lake Shore Gold (LSG.to) (LSG) and Teranga Gold (TGZ.to) (TGZ.ax) third quarter
financials analysis.
As is normal, these two reported in the same week and as in 1q15 (in IKN312) and 2q15
(IKN325) we’re going to cover their numbers in a double bill event today. The need-to-know is:
• LSG’s numbers are fine, I see no reason to change anything in my position.
• TGZ’s numbers may look soft at first but when you scratch the surface, then consider
what’s being baked into the 4q15 period and then consider where the share price is at
the moment, it’s a stellar opportunity today. I’m close to moving it up to Top Pick.
So let’s get on with it, LSG first and then TGZ below.
Lake Shore Gold (LSG.to) (LSG): A great drill assays NR on Wednesday morning (2) saw
the stock pop very nicely, but there’s no better testament to the newly re-depressed state of
the juniors than the faileure of the upmove in LSG.
I made mention of the ‘little beauty of an out-step’ on the blog that day (3) with this map
reproduced there, the out-step hole at the 144 zone that returned 6.85 g/t gold over an
impressive 59.2m.
No marketing or promo puff, that’s a cracking hole which goes a long way to confirm the
company’s assumption about the exploration and resource size potential of 144, but even that
couldn’t make a price move stick. You have to wonder what this market needs, $20/oz gold
moves or not. If you check the squiggly line for Thursday you might think the market didn’t like
the earnings numbers, but it’s far more about the gold drop and the way LSG was already
coming off (failing to hold) the early gains on that strong exploration news.
Then Thursday brought LSG’s 3q15 numbers (4) (NB: REMEMBER LSG REPORTS IN CANADIAN
DOLLARS, WHICH IS THE DEFAULT CURRENCY IN THE FOLLOWING ANALYSIS UNLESS
OTHERWISE STATED) And here’s the rundown of the need-to-know, starting with the balance
sheet stuff and then the profit and loss stuff, then a round-up and conclusion. Off we go.
2

Balance sheet
The liquidity position is very good. At $87.189M there was more cash treasury than I expected,
with the IKN model previously estimating $80m.
LSG.to: Cash treasury per qtr
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
3
11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
Total current assets at $112.07m were higher than my $106m guesstimate as a result. Fixed
assets also rose as the Temex Resources purchase was succssfully closed and folded into the
company.
LSG.to: Assets
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3
$m
fixed
other current
cash & eq
source: LSG filings
On the other hand, liabilities also rose slightly, with the $42.713m in the current column my
main miss (I had them pegged at $36m).
LSG.to: liabilities per qtr
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3
source: company filings
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LT debt
current debt
In other words I’d expected less current assets and liabilities. In the end LSG reported about
$6m different to either side and that could be anything (they sign a cheque before or after the
cut-off date) and that’s fine by me. This shows in the working capital, which $69.359m
compares very closely indeed to the IKN Weekly forecast of $70m. So yeah, glad you asked,
I’m pleased about getting that as close as dammit.

80 LSG.to: Working Capital per qtr
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
4
11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3
source company filings/IKN ests
srallod
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snoillim
Wrapping up this section, here’s the share count which is now at 456.308m after the Temex
purchase bumped things up by just under 20m papers. As expected.
LSG.to: Shares Out
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3
source: company filings/IKN ests
serahs
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Operting results (P+L)
We move to the operations and the P+L and here it tuns out that my forecast was a little too
optimistic on costs. Nothing to be alarmed about, just a tad too rosy.
Here’s the overview chart, which shows revenues, production costs, depreciation/ depletion/
amortization (DD&A) and the resulting gross profit figure. The good news is that LSG is still
clearly free cash flow positive on operations at its realized gold price in the quarter
(U$1,122/oz).
LSG.to: Quarterly Earnings Overview
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3
$m
revenues Prod Costs
deplet/deprec gross profit
source: company filings/IKN ests
Revenues at $63.048m were smack on the expected figure.

LSG.to: Revenues
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
5
31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3
$m
source: LSG filings, IKN ests
What I got wrong most of all is costs, as seen below. This at $33.943m was $4.5m higher than
my $29.5m guess and as noted above, that was too optimistic on my part.
LSG.to: Production costs (COGS)
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3
$m
Source: LSG filings, IKN ests
So when we isolate the gross profits number, it shows the quarter-over-quarter drop clearly.
LSG.to: Gross profits, per qtr
25
20
15
10
5
0
21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3
$m
source: company filings, IKN ests
That, along with a DD&A figure of $19.317m (about $1.8m higher than my model), saw overall
costs total just over $63m...
LSG.to: Global costs breakdown
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3
$m
Prod Costs deplet/deprec G&A Exploration other
source: company filings, IKN ests

... and that means operating earnings matched revenues very closely and the whole shebang
was at breakeven (well, a nominal loss of $67,000 but you know what I mean):
LSG.to: Op. Earnings
26 (with 4q12 and 4q13 impairments backed out)
22
18
14
10
6
2
-2
-6
-10
6
21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
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snoillim
Once the below-the-fold financials were added and subtracted (including tax) the final score for
the quarter was a net loss of $0.59m, which is less consequential for a growth company than its
gross or operating number but still deserves a line. That’s not too bad really, considering the
3q15 realized price for gold was U$1,122/oz, that the 2q15 average realized price for gold was
U$75/oz higher at U$1,197/oz and that 4q15 is shaping up at over U$1,150/oz...to date at
least.
Summing up operations, though revenues were fine it turns out that I’d overestimated the
favourable effect of the Canadian Dollar’s rise against the Greenback. The Loonie has flattened
out against its chief forex partner in the last few months and its main cost-saving effects as far
as ops are concerned were felt in Q2. In nutshell, that’s where I got my model wrong.
As for where LSG is today and what we can expect from the stock price, I’d point to this
derivate chart that compares book value (total assets vs total liabilities) and the way the two
lines have come together. The Temex acquisition was small but it’s still had a minor accretive
effect to book value.
LSG.to: Market cap versus book value
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3
C$m
mkt cap at qtr end
book value
source: company filings, TSX data
Meanwhile the equity value of LSG has drifted back up and joined the BV once again. As I’d
posit we’re in a market that’s still bearish in attitude towards mining stocks and isn’t willing to
pay too highly for companies that are either breaking even or are making modest profits (or
tiny losees) on operations, even good companies like LSG, this looks like a pretty strong ceiling,
valuewise at least, for LSG to push through under the status quo. What might change that to
the upside are two things:
• A rise in the price of gold. Duh.
• A takeover move for LSG.

And its this second option that got me involved and long in LSG to begin with. I still say that
LSG is worth a lot more to Goldcorp (GG) than the market and that despite its own rough
quarter (see below) GG is the type of company ready to pay up for the ownership of LSG.
Which is where I am today. LSG is a strong company which may not have much direct upside
left in it on its own merits, but is an
obvious takeover target and that’s
why I’m very happy to stay long the
stock. Its quarter was correct
without being stellar, the balance
sheet is improving and though the
costs number was hotter than I’d
have liked, the operations are in
good shape too and it’s shown it can
turn a (mine) profit at a lower gold
price than today’s.
It’s frustrating to see the lack of
reward in LSG last week after it
delivered two positive NRs with
strong fundies news in both, especially that very god 144 zone exploration NR. But that’s where
we are today, the price of gold and its moves trump everything else. So it goes. Hapy hold.
Teranga Gold (TGZ.to) (TGZ.ax) 3q15 results
The opening note we did on Teranga Gold (TGZ) was in a full NOBS report in IKN301 dated
February 15th. Then a week or so later I bought my first position in the stock at 55c. Since then
we’ve run non-NOBS analyses on TGZ’s 1q15 and 2q15 in IKN312 and IKN325 respectively. I’ve
also added to my position as of IKN330 and averaged up slightly on the cost price.
Which brings us to today and the TGZ 3q15 results, but before we dive in and due to the fact
the stock’s share count has changed recently on the back of the placement deal that it
“voluntarily” went into (no pressure, guys), here’s an update of the structure box we use in the
NOBS reports for TGZ:
Shares out: 392.001m
Options: 15.526m (3.83m at 60c, rest very out of money
Warrants: Zero
Fully diluted shares: 407.527m
Current share price: C$0.54
Market Cap: C$211.7m
Approx working cap per S/O: C$0.15
All prices are in US dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.80=CAD$1
The pitch is that you’re getting a solid 200k oz gold producer, with production growth in 2016,
exploration upside, good community relations and profitable operations, for U$170m. I’m now
going to try and show how damned cheap that is.
Post-close last Wednesday TGZ reported its quarter (5) and though TGZ headlined on its lower
costs profile and quickly pointed out the net profit for the quarter, most critical eyes were
immediately drawn to the gold production number that wasn’t just low, but way low:
7

TGZ: Gold production, per qtr
80000
71278
70000
60000
52368 52090
48598 48643 49392
50000
39857
40000 32956
30000
20000
10000
0
8
31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3
Oz Au
source: TGZ filings
TGZ had already mentioned that rain would affect its production quarter but the 32,956 ounce
total was a big drop, not just a drop. Here’s how they explained it in the MD&A last week:
“Production during the third quarter was impacted by heavy rainfall that
caused material handling issues with the oxide material being mined at
Masato, which in turn negatively impacted throughput. As a result, higher
grade oxide material from Masato, which was mined and scheduled to be
processed during the quarter, has been stockpiled and will be processed after
the rainy season ends beginning in late October and into first quarter 2016.”
Despite that TGZ managed to return a profit on the quarter and that was all about the
reduction in costs seen in absolute terms (per ounce is another thing, as we’ll see). That’s not a
bad thing at all, the 3q15 financials were reaosnable under the circumstances, but the thing
that really catches my eye and makes me like TGZ is the guidance it gave for the 4q15 and full
year period.
The company reaffirmed its 2015 guidance of minimum 200k ounces, even though it now
guides to the bottom of that range. That means it’s looking to produce nearly 70k oz in this
current quarter and at its lowest cash cost of the year, too. If they do that, TGZ is in for a
bumper quarter and its current 54c price looks crazily cheap. It got sold last week on the gold
price drop and its own quarterly filings, but anyone looking closely should have bought TGZ last
week, not sold it.
Because of the Q4 promise, all the way through this analysis of the 3q15 numbers I’ve also
added newly refined forecasts and estimates for the 4q15 period with particular heed paid to
the production and revenues sections. TGZ isn’t about what’s just happened, it’s about what it’s
going to do in the last quarter of the year (as well as its 2016 guidance). Its past quarter as a
near-breakeven miner may justify its current low price, the next one will show why it’s a buy
today.
• First we consider production for 3q15 and 4q15
• Then we consider operation revenues for 3q15 and 4q15
• Then we check balance sheet items (though not so important this time)
• Then we wrap it up
And now less blah-blah, more charts.
Production
Here’s a chart with a closer look at production and sales over recent quarters, plus the IKN
forecast for the key 4q15 period. Viewed like this, it’s easy to see how Q3 came in low but how
that’s set to be countered by a very strong Q4. We also note how TGZ managed to deliver a big
final quarter last year (4q14) which backs up the company’s assertion that it can hit its target.

TGZ: gold produced vs gold sold, per qtr
80000 71278 70664
70000
60000
50000 52368 52090 48598 48643 49392
40000 39857
32956
30000
20000
10000
0
9
31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 tse51q4
Oz Au
reported Au prod
Au sold
source: company filings, IKN ests from TGZ guidance
Under the all-important gold production numbers, the next couple of charts show some of the
operational metrics and how I think TGZ can get to its Q4 70k (as noted above the IKN
spreadsheet points at 70,664 oz for Q4, more than close enough for modelling purposes).
Here’s the amount of rock it’s been moving:
TGZ: Tonnages mined, per qtr
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 tse51q4
source: company filings, IKN ests from TGZ guidance
TM
snoilliM
cap. waste mined
op. waste mined
ore mined
Notably, “capitalized waste” (i.e. the low grading stuff TGZ is stockpiling for processing in a
dump leach at some unknown point in the future and about which I’m not wildly enthusiastic)
was low in Q3 and I expect that to continue in Q4. That’s good, it offers a more honest costs
number and doesn’t swell the assets column by much.
Processed ore looks like this and here we see the low number due to the rains in 3q15. On the
contrary, 4q15 should bounce back even though the same rains have reportedly affected
October as well.
TGZ: Ore mined vs ore milled
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 tse51q4
source: TGZ filings, IKN ests from TGZ guidance
TM
snoilliM
ore mined
ore milled
Recovery rates remain high and solid. No reason to suspct any change in this one, but I’ve used
a slightly lower number for Q4 out of conservatism.

100% TGZ: Gold recovery rates
98%
96%
94%
92%
90%
88%
86%
84%
82%
80%
10
21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 tse51q4
source: TGZ filings, IKN ests
Then grades mined to head grades show the effect of TGZ procesing lower-grading stuff in
3q15, again due to the heavy rains. I’m looking for something close to the 4q14 number in the
current quarter.
TZG: Mined grade to head grade, per qtr
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 tse51q4
g/t Au
head grade total
grade mined
source: TGZ filings, IKN ests from TGZ guidance
So if you stick those three metrics together, all of which looking reasonable under the
circumstances, out pops my 70k and bits estimate for the quarter to come.
Operating results (P+L work)
There’s no secret here, this is all about revenues versus costs and as the revenues side of
things depends on the relationship between gold production and gold price, at least half of that
work is contained in the above production section.
Therefore by ading in a chart that shows the average realized price for gold at TGZ per quarter,
plus a best-guess for 4q15 (U$1,150/oz) we
can get to the revenues side of things TGZ Realized price for gold vs LME fix avg, per qtr
quickly. At U$1,112/oz in 3q15, TGZ’s
average realized price was slightly lower than 1350
1300
the LME average (U$1,124/oz). As gold’s
1250
rebounded since then and averaged 1200
U$1,160/oz in October there’s reason to be 1150
moderately cheerful about the quarter to 1100
1050
come. I’m pitching for U$1,150/oz but to
1000
give an idea of he parameters, every $50
950
added to the gold price would add just over 900
U$3.5m to operating profits at the company,
nearly a penny a share. Assuming of course
they hit their production target.
With revenues covered, here’s the main overview earnings chart that sticks revenues against
costs and comes up with gross profits.
31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 tse51q4
U$/oz Au
realized price LME avg
source: TGZ filings, IKN ests

TGZ.to: Quarterly Earnings Overview
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
11
41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 tse51q4
$m
revenues
COGS
gross profit
source: company filings/IKN ests
TGZ managed to stay free cash flow positive in 3q15, but margins were obviously crimped by
the lower production number. Costs however were much lower ($32.497m) and that’s a fine
result. For Q4 I’m expecting costs to pop back up BUT I’m being very conservative in that, as
you can probably make out. I’ll be straight,
here; I’m not baking in the opportunity that
TGZ beats my estimates by a fair distance and
what comes below is me trying to keep a
damper on enthusiasm about what TGZ will be
able to deliver this quarter.
It’s time to take a better look at the costs
situation, starting with the total costs profile
(right) which shows COGS at the mine are by
far the biggest input. For Q4 I’m estimating as
high as I dare, trying to ignore blue-sky, so I’m
pitching close to the highest quarterly COGS
levels returned by the company in early 2014.
Even so, my costs conservatism still predicts 4q15 as the year’s lowest total cash cost per ounce
(the company guides this as well).
TGZ: Total Cash Costs vs All In Sustaining Costs per Oz Au
1300
1191
1200
1100 1060
1000 954 948
900
900 850 813 815 781 841
800 711 696 711 712
700 598 609 602 600
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 tse51q4
TGZ.to: Costs profile
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
tot cash cost
AISC
source: TGZ filings, IKN ests
In the above chart we also see how AISC was hit hard by the low production number, even as
total costs stayed low.
So when the operations are run through the rest of the corporate set-up at TGZ, we get a profit
just returned of $1.215m for 3q15 but an estimated $17m for 4q15, a big jump and back to
what we wanted from TGZ when buying the stock.
31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 tse51q4
$m Finance costs
G&A
COGS
Source: TGZ filings, IKN ests

TGZ.to: operating profits, per qtr
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
12
31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 tse51q4
$m
|
source: company filings, IKN ests
And be clear that I could be overestimating costs by as much as $8m, plus of course gold at
U$1,200/oz would add another $3.5m to the pot. The chances of TGZ having a blow-out 4q15,
not just a good one, are high.
To round out, net earnings looks like this in absolute and per-share terms. TGZ did well to keep
its costs under control in 3q15 and that meant it cold return another profit, small though it is.
For 4q15 even my conservative ways brings in 3c/share, which is a forward P/E of 3.6X. Again I
ask you mine-watching people, how cheap do you need a profitable mining company to be
before you buy some of its stock?
TGZ.to: Net Earnings
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
Balance sheet items
This is the least pressing section of today’s analysis, but it’s still worthwhile because we can see
the effect of the recent cash addition via the share sale to David Mimran (39.2m shares at
C$0.58 a pop raising gross proceeds of
C$22.7m).
TGZ’s total assets stand at $737.9m with
$631m of that covered by the fixed assets
value (i.e,. the mine plus a few extra bits
and pieces), so instead of showing you that
charts here’s current assets only, where we
see how the cash added to the pot by
Mimran sits in comparison to other quarters.
I don’t care what anyone says about the
strategic merits, TGZ didn’t need that
money. But hey, we live with reality and
having more cash in the bank isn’t a bad thing I suppose. Here’s a close-up look at cash only:
31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 tse51q4
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
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TGZ.to: Net earnings per share
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
-0.02
-0.04
31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 tse51q4
cents
|
source: company financials/IKN calcs
TGZ.to: Current Assets
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 tse51q4
$m other current
cash & eq
source: TGZ filings

TGZ.to: Cash treasury per qtr
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
13
31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 tse51q4
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
Opposite the current assets chart, here below is current liabilities. I’d like to see that 4q15 come
in lower than my own estimate (which is basically that of 3q15) and see TGZ putting some of
that new cash to good use in the process, but I’ll stick with a status-quo type model until
otherwise informed.
TGZ.to: Current Liabilities per qtr
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 tse51q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
Stick that little lot together and you get working capital. TGZ has enjoyed a happy and liquid
situation on this one, which is even better now of course. They do have plans to grow in 2016
and beyond of course. That will need funding.
70 TGZ.to: Working Capital per qtr
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 tse51q4
source company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
Finally shares out, which at 392m is up by some 10% and a dilution is a dilution, but all things
considered it’s not that bad and I can live with this new number compared to the old. I wouldn’t
expect TGZ to raise via equity in the future.

TGZ.to: Shares Out
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
14
11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 tse51q4
source: company filings/IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim
What the TGZ stock price can do
To wrap up today, I’m going to show you the same “market cap versus book value” chart I
used above for LSG to show the yawning gap between the two numbers at TGZ. This, ladies
and gentlemen, is why I think TGZ is such a raging buy.
TGZ.to: Market cap versus book value
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 tse51q4
$m
mkt cap at qtr end
book value
source: company filings, TSX data
Or put in ratio terms, this chart that has TGZ at below 0.4X (remember, LSG is at-or-about
1.0X).
TGZ.to: Price/Book ratio
0.6
0.55
0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 tse51q4
source: company data, TSX, IKN calcs
Now I’m clear there are no apples-to-apples comparatives that work and that LSG is a different
fish to TGZ. Country, production numbers, growth, location, risk profile, any number of others.
All the same, under 0.4X for a company that doesn’t need to write-down or impair any of its
fixed assets, that is profitable, with a long-life mine and its own growth profile, is way too
cheap. And once the 4q15 results are in, TGZ will rebound from its current level.
If it weren’t for my latent concerns about being so positive about a company in the West Africa
region (even one that’s accepted and in a very stable place like TGZ) I’d make TGZ my Top Pick
as from today because its 4q15 is going to be somewhere between very good and blowout.

That’s not even mentioning 2016, in which TGZ should beat its 2015 performance handily
thanks to new higher grading feed and planned production upgrades. Above all here it’s the
price, under 60c for this just screams at me. Own some, and though you can make the
argument that the 10% dilution should bring the price target down pro-rata I still think TGZ has
much more to offer than its current discounted price so for the moment I confirm that target.
Stocks to Follow
There were two stocks that put in weekly gains on our list (TGM.v, REG.v) and another five
which stayed unchanged (SAM.to, FOS.to, SSP.v, ATM.v, IRL.to suspended), so it wasn’t a
complete disaster but the reversal in the price of gold obviously took its toll with nine losers
that include al the main gold producing stocks on our list. The biggest percentage drop was in
Legend Gold (LGN.v down 28.6c, or a penny in real terms) but the only drop that hurt was yet
another hit taken by B2Gold (BTO.to down 11.3%). If it weren’t for that one I’d be able to say
the smallish hits taken in the other main positions were bearable, but B2 again ruined my week
and the portfolio feels thinner yet again.
We currently have 16 open positions in our 'Stocks to Follow' list, one above our normal 15
name maximum. Four stocks are in the green, twelve are in the red.
15

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICK
B2Gold BTO.to STR BUY C$2.17 12-sep-14 C$1.41 -35.0% Top Pick, 1st tgt $2.70
Metals Producers (in current order of preference)
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to buy C$1.07 07-apr-15 C$1.16 8.4% Added Aug, M&A tgt
Teranga Gold TGZ.to str buy C$0.57 15-feb-15 C$0.54 -5.3% Added Aug, 83c tgt v cheap
McEwen Mining MUX hold U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$0.90 -17.4% Recovering from lows
Timmins Gold TGD hold (sell?) U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.207 -15.5% Not working may sell
Starcore Intl SAM.to spec buy C$0.12 10-jan-15 C$0.10 -16.7% Also "land grab", tgt 19c
Land Grab Stocks (in current order of preference)
Phoscan Chem FOS.to hold C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.285 1.8% 36c/share of cash
Sandspring Res SSP.v buy C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.185 -5.1% New buy, 30c 1st tgt
Atacama Pacific ATM.v hold C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.14 -26.3% Spec buy, cheap adv proj
Legend Gold LGN.v hold C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.025 -70.6% Spec buy, v small, not working
Lara Expl. LRA.v spec buy C$1.15 08-apr-12 C$0.235 -79.6% solid biz model, LT hold
Other Recommended Stocks (in current order of preference)
Dalradian Res DNA.to BUY C$0.64 27-oct-13 C$0.74 15.6% New tgt 95c to $1 Sep 20
Minera IRL IRL.to Susp. C$0.195 22-jul-12 C$0.075 -61.5% Trading suspended
True Gold TGM.v spec buy C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.24 33.0% 25c to 30c sell price tgt
Focus Ventures FCV.v hold C$0.23 01-jul-12 C$0.12 -47.8% tgt 50c, phosphate great value
Regulus Res REG.v hold C$0.30 06-apr-15 C$0.22 -26.7% Comm. Rels slow progress
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'14 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'14 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'14 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'14 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$.3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 closed positions in appendices below
Now for some notes on current basket stocks.
Sandspring Resources (SSP.v): After the volume that came around the buy reco period a
couple of weeks ago, things went quiet in trading for a period. That’s normal, don’t ever chase
these things, even in bullish moments newsletter pops are temporary in nature and these are
not bullish times for explorecos.
Right up to Friday that is, when we saw the stock wake up a bit and 300k+ shares traded,
mostly buying into the ask. As 20c is my idea of a very good value entry point, that was good to
see and backs up the house opinion a little.
Timmins Gold (TMM.to) (TGD): May sell. We’re due TMM’s 3q15 numbers next week and
when I see them I’ll be looking for excuses to sell into this low price. The market signal on this
quarter is pretty rotten, let’s see if the numbers aren’t quite as bad as the selling has suggested
because if so, TMM is cheap enough to rally a little.
16

But as noted last week, owning this one doesn’t make me proud and I’ll be out soon enough. A
short-term trade with a specific objective that’s gone on a couple of weeks too long.
True Gold (TGM.v): I featured the five day chart of TGM last week to demonstrate how it had
popped and consolidated the gain,
this week the ten day chart that
again shows the original pop and
then how that consolidation has
continued.
TGM is trading very strongly, no ifs
or buts, and managed a weekly gain
while all around were wilting and
dying. However I am a seller at the
right price on this one and if I see
30c next week I’ll take it without any
extra notes or updates required.
McEwen Mining (MUX): MUX gave us its 3q15 production numbers last week (6) which
confirmed the guidance increases previously announced in September. it had already
announced. El Gallo I produced 19,558 oz AuEq and San José 23,832 AuEq, so the 43,390 oz
consolidated production number for gold equivalent (silver from 49% owned San José making
up most of the non-gold production, El Gallo’s silver production being minor) stacks up to
previous quarters like this:
MUX: Gold equivalent production
Oz Au Eq
50000
43633 43390
39164
40000 34108 34319 34981 35640
32163 31218 30599
30000 28118
20000
10000
0
1q13 2q13 3q13 4q13 1q14 2q14 3q14 4q14 1q15 2q15 3q15
source: company filings
We saw a price blip the next morning which noted the market’s approval but it didn’t last and
the ten day trend is a better commentary
on the stock today. Bottom line is that the
MUX produciton numbers were very much
in line with expectations (including my
own) and the company is following the
macro trend for gold stocks.
We get the 3q15 financials from MUX on
Thursday. They make make a difference,
but I can only see the stock rallying and
consolidating higher on a gold price pop.
Which isn’t a bad thing to say, as it should
be one that benefits quickly from any gold
rebound.
17

Focus Ventures (FCV.v): After the close on Friday FCV filed its 3q15 financials and MD&A (to
August 31st), which contained no big surprises. The cash position as at that date was $704k
and working capital at $379k, which gives the recent $2m placement announcement more
logical backing because according to the terms of the Sprott loan “...the Company is required to
maintain a minimum cash balance of $500,000 and minimum working capital of $250,000
during the term of the loan” and we have to be close to those numbers now. Apart from that,
little to glean from this set of financials that we didn’t know already.
B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to): No respite for B2 as it sells when others sell but doens’t rally when
others rally. My position is clear enough, that we give this stock the opportunity to fulfill its
2015 guidance with a strong 4q15. But the way it’s trading suggests the market is far less
forgiving or indulgent about this stock than I am.
Starcore Intl (SAM.to): SAM reported its Q4 and year last week and though the numbers
look okay (without sparkling) and the neutral market reaction is about right in my view, I’m not
going to try and fake things here because aside from scanning through the financials and MD&A
and picking up the main points (a $60k net loss on the quarter and $393k operating loss, not
going to break the bank), I haven’t taken a good hard look at the numbers yet (it’s been a
hectic week and weekend, sorry). I should have a better view on this stock this time next
weekend, with a calm couple of days ahead of me and time to play with numbers. I don’t think
the world needs a quick call on this one, anyway.
The Copper Basket
After forty-four weeks of 2015, The Copper Basket is showing a 31.37% loss to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/15 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Capstone Min. CS.to 2.03 381.95 255.91 0.67 -67.0%
2 Reservoir Min. RMC.v 3.96 47.55 211.60 4.45 12.4%
3 NGEx Resources NGQ.to 1.17 187.71 93.86 0.50 -57.3%
4 Nevada Copper NCU.to 1.65 80.5 78.09 0.97 -41.2%
5 Copper Fox CUU.v 0.135 402.96 62.46 0.155 14.8%
6 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.27 173.65 52.96 0.305 13.0%
7 Hot Chili Ltd HCH.ax 0.16 333.11 44.97 0.135 -15.6%
8 Western Copper WRN.to 0.68 93.68 37.47 0.40 -41.2%
9 NovaCopper NCQ.to 0.58 60.15 29.77 0.495 -14.7%
10 Panoro Minerals PML.v 0.295 220.64 24.27 0.11 -62.7%
11 Metminco MNC.ax 0.008 2650 13.25 0.005 -37.5%
12 Regulus Res REG.v 0.35 56.39 12.41 0.22 -37.1%
13 AQM Copper AQM.v 0.06 141 5.64 0.04 -33.3%
14 Catalyst Copper CCY.v 0.305 31.41 5.03 0.16 -47.5%
15 Coro Mining COP.to 0.045 159.37 3.19 0.02 -55.6%
NB: HCH.ax & MNC.ax priced in AUD$, rest CAD$ Portfolio avg -31.37%
The overall basket aveage was down 5% The Copper Basket 2015, weekly evolution
2.32%. We saw five risers (CS.to, 0%
RMC.v, ARG.to, REG.v, CCY.v), eight -5%
droppers (NGQ.to, NCU.to, PML.v, -10%
WRN.to, CUU.v, HCH.ax, NCQ.to, -15%
MNC.ax) and two unchanged stocks -20%
(AQM.v, COP.to) on the week. The -25%
biggest moves were downmoves, -30%
namely the 20.6% lost in Hot Chili -35%
(HCH.ax) and the 16.7% lost in
Meminco (MNC.ax) as the two
18
ht4naj ht81 ts1bef ht51 ts1ram ht51 ht92 ht21 ht62 ht01 ht42 ht7nuj ts12 ht5luj ht91 dn2gua ht61 ht03 ht31 ht72 ht11 ht52
source: IKN calcs

Australian-listed stocks in our basket re-adjusted after their runs. Those together account for
just about all of the basket’s average drop, so once you
throw that thought in the mix you’re left with a slightly
negative week for copper juniors, not much more.
Copper prices were soft on th week, but at least this time it
wasn’t due to China Fears (TM), but more on the dollar
strength after the Fed went hawkish on us again.
It’s the end of another month, here are the warehouse tracking charts:
Copper inventories, per month, 2012 to date
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
The big change is copper leaving the LME and entering the SHFE Shanghai system, all on
arbitrage they say. The small chang eis the rise in Comex stocks, now close to 10% of the
world total again. This is where that warehouse usually tops out.
Now our regular weekly warehouse comment section:
• Total world copper stocks dropped by 17,063 metric tonnes (mt) (-3.4%) to finish at
486,027mt. That’s quite a big change.
• Shanghai stocks moved up again, another “around 10k” that was almost exactly that
this time. Stocks went up by 9,808mt (+6.7%) to finish the week at 180,157mt.
Bearish.
• The big drop was at the LME, stocks lost 19,8250mt (-7.1%) to stand at 257,775mt this
weekend. That’s the second big one in a row. Bullish of sorts, I suppose.
• And same as the last few weeks at the Comex with another big percentage, up 4,341mt
(+9.9%) to 43,754mt. Nearly 10% of the gig now.
Here's the Shanghai-only tracker chart, which shows the rise in stocks very clearly.
19
21.naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 31.naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 41.naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 51.naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco
Mt Cu Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
LME Shanghai Comex 80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
source: Cochilco
21.naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 31.naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 41.naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 51.naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco
LME Shanghai Comex
source: Cochilco

Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014/2015
260000
240000
220000
200000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
20
31'13ceD ht21 ht62 ht9 dr32 ht9 dr32 ht6rpa ht02 ht4yam ht81 ts1enuj ht51 ht92 ht31 ht72 ht01 ht42 ht7 ts12 ht5tco ht91 dn2von ht61 ht03 ht41 ht82 ht11 ht52 ht8 dn22 ht8 dn22 ht5rpa ht91 dr3yam ht71 ts13 ht41 ht82 ht21 ht62 ht9 dr32 ht6pes ht02 ht4tco ht81 dn2von
Mt Cu
source: Cochilco
The Low Cost Producer Basket
After 44 weeks, the 2015 Low Cost Producer Basket is showing a 18.60% loss to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/15 Shares out Mkt Cap (Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Goldcorp GG 18.52 830 10.64 12.82 -30.8%
2 Newmont NEM 18.90 528.08 10.28 19.46 3.0%
3 Barrick ABX 10.75 1164.67 8.96 7.69 -28.5%
4 Franco Nevada FNV 49.19 156.5 7.93 50.69 3.0%
5 Agnico Eagle AEM 24.89 214.12 6.06 28.30 13.7%
6 Silver Wheaton SLW 20.33 403.75 5.49 13.59 -33.2%
7 Kinross KGC 2.82 1146.2 2.30 2.01 -28.7%
8 Buenaventura BVN 9.56 254.19 1.63 6.41 -32.9%
9 Pan American PAAS 9.20 151.64 1.15 7.57 -17.7%
10 B2Gold BTG 1.62 926.68 0.99 1.07 -34.0%
all prices in U$, using NYSE ticker prices Portfolio avg -18.60%
And down we go again. Our basket of PM producers lost % on the week, with every single
component down. Some fared worse than others though, with the biggest hits taken by
Buenaventura (BVN down 19.4%), Goldcorp (GG down 17.5%), Kinross (KGC down 13.4%) and
B2Gold (BTG down 11.6%) and for this size of company, those are big hits indeed. GG down
17.5%? Ouch.
The Low Cost Producer Basket: Weekly performance
30% and comparative to GDX control
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
ts13ceD ht11 ht52 ht8 dr42 ht8 dr32 ht5rpa ht91 dr3yam ht71 ts13 ht41 ht82 ht21 ht62 ht9 dr32 ht6peS ht02 ht4tco ht81 ts1von
basket
gdx control
source: Google Finance, IKN calcs

Low Cost Basket: Percentage difference between
3.0% basket and GDX control, 2014
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
21
ts13ceD ht11 ht52 ht8 dr42 ht8 dr32 ht5rpa ht91 dr3yam ht71 ts13 ht41 ht82 ht21 ht62 ht9 dr32 ht6peS ht02 ht4tco ht81 ts1von
|
source: ikn calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq data
It was interesting to read the news entitled “Barrick, Newmont Shares Rise During Earnings
Week Despite Softer Gold Prices” on Kitco Friday morning (7) by the way. Pumpers gotta pump.
Regional politics
Argentina: The second round
As noted on the blog at the time last week, the first round result in the Argentina election
wasn’t just a surprise, it was a total shock. My only excuse for calling it wrong (which I did,
heavens did I!) is that the vast majority of polls in the country were predicting a Scioli victory
by at least five points (the anti-CFK media) and as much at 11 or 12 points. Even the exit polls
on the night showed Scioli winning, so when the first results came through the effect was
stunning.
In the end Scioli won the first round by about two points (Macri’s early lead taken away as
outlying provincial Argentina results came though later). But it’s now a fascinating run-off for
the big prize and although I now have Macri as slight favourite, there’s no way of knowing how
the final vote will go. What’s more, the runup is going to provide some of the most fascinating
LatAm politics for years.
I have a few more thoughts on this subject and will expand next weekend. Right now, I’d be
careful about investing in Argentina on a purely political bet (i.e. a Macri win). Nothing is certain
in this game.
Market Watching
Minera IRL (MIRL.L) (IRL.to) quick update
The main news out of IRL last week was the announcement Friday that it was under a Cease
Trade Order (CTO) from the OSC in Canada. This on its own should not be something to be
worried about for IRL shareholders, it’s a normal procedure as the company has not filed its
quarter (even though it’s perfectly capable of doing so if it wanted to).
We’re now in the key month for the future of IRL and I watch as Team Hodges are trying every
trick in the book to oust Diego Benavides, get its hands on the subsidiary companies and then
try to strip the assets out of IRL before they’re kicked out. It’s not pretty, but Diego Benavides
has stopped them from doing just that. So far at least.
Buenaventura (BVN)
What with its big drop, BVN again looks eminently buyable at this price. Its quarter wasn’t that
bad, though you’d imagine it to be a chapter 11 case by the way the market reacted. It’s not
and it’s now cheap. I need to decide what t do again.
New Gold (NGD)

Another one that dropped back was NGD, subject of our recent successful trade. For me the
problem was a soft revenues number at $177m (I had $190m modelled). Although cheap again
I think it could get cheaper (esp if gold drops a bit more) so I’ll hold off from being cute and
buying back in at the current price. At least for the moment, something in the $2.20 range
might turn out to be irresistible.
Conclusion
IKN338 is done, we end with bullet points:
• An abridged edition, with no snippety stuff or much comment aside from TGZ and LSG.
Life got in the way, people. Back to normal next weekend.
• Lake Shore Gold (LSG.to) (LSG) is one to hold onto, its 3q15 wasn’t wowsers but it’s
doing just fine and Goldcorp will eventually step up.
• Teranga is so cheap it has me shouting in the same way as when Rio Alto went to
$1.50 in 2013. Seriously seriously cheap and it’s not going to stay that way forever.
• Timmins reports this week coming, my excuses to dump this dog may have run out.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Otto
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2015/10/schedule-for-week-of-november-1st.html
(2) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lake-shore-gold-reports-continued-100000637.html
(3) http://incakolanews.blogspot.pe/2015/10/if-keith-barron-is-right-lake-shore.html
(4) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lake-shore-gold-reports-nine-103000075.html
(5) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/significant-cost-savings-underlie-terangas-101000348.html
(6) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mcewen-mining-announces-record-q3-103000744.html
(7) http://www.kitco.com/news/2015-10-30/Barrick-Newmont-Shares-Rise-During-Earnings-Week-Despite-Softer-Gold-
Prices.html
(8) http://incakolanews.blogspot.pe/2015/10/massive-upset-result-in-argentina.html
(9) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/minera-irl-limited-announces-cease-193528226.html
22

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2014
Closed in 2014 closed close price
Fortuna Silver FVI.to jan'14 C$2.80 23-dic-13 C$3.19 13.9% small ST trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to jan'14 C$2.06 07-jun-13 C$2.30 11.7% trading position finally closed
Network Expl. NET.v feb'14 C$0.01 22-jul-12 C$0.005 -50.0% position closed, did nothing
Tahoe Resources TAHO feb'14 U$13.10 08-abr-13 U$21.72 -65.8% short closed due to reality
Darwin Res DAR.v mar'14 C$0.10 14-jul-12 C$0.045 -55.0% tiny risk play dropped
B2Gold BTO.to mar'14 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.35 9.1% closed to free up capital
Pretium Res PVG mar'14 U$5.38 22-nov-13 U$6.50 -20.8% short closed as port longer
Gold Res Corp GORO may'14 U$5.07 26-ene-14 U$4.12 16.7% took profit
Bear Creek Min BCM.v may'14 C$1.63 23-mar-14 C$2.05 25.8% Took profit, sm near-term win
Eco Oro Min. EOM.to aug'14 C$0.48 22-sep-13 C$0.26 -45.8% sold small loser to make room
True Gold TGM.v sep'14 C$0.395 02-feb-14 C$0.41 3.8% M&A won't happen, sold
Santacruz Silver SCZ.v sep'14 C$1.04 26-ene-14 C$0.86 -17.3% silver/M&A spec, rel. small
Timmins Gold TGD nov'14 U$1.38 09-abr-14 U$0.99 -28.3% failed trade, sell, raise cash
Kinross Gold KGC nov'14 U$2.90 20-oct-14 U$2.15 -25.9% V small trade, didn't work, chau
Salazar Res SRL.v hold C$0.28 02-mar-14 C$0.145 -48.2% lost China sponsor
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2013
Closed in 2013 closed close price
USA Graphite USGT feb'13 U$0.93 08-ene-13 U$0.17 81.7% short tgt made/trade closed
Lachlan Star LSA.to feb'13 C$1.50 30-sep-12 C$0.95 -36.7% sold to reduce port risk
United Silver USC.to mar'13 C$0.21 28-oct-12 C$0.095 -54.8% small Ag sector trade, failed
Aurcana Corp AUN.v apr'13 C$1.07 11-nov-12 C$0.55 -48.6% closed on poor YE results
Gold Res Corp GORO apr'13 U$14.11 25-ene-13 U$9.38 33.5% short tgt made/trade closed
Marlin Gold MLN.v apr'13 C$0.075 10-feb-13 C$0.065 -13.3% closed trade
Bear Creek BCM.v may'13 C$2.58 01-abr-13 C$2.40 -7.0% near-term, time ran out
Lupaka Gold LPK.to may'13 C$1.12 23-oct-11 C$0.32 -71.4% towel thrown in
Tahoe Resources TAHO may'13 U$18.62 08-abr-13 U$14.70 21.1% took profit on ST short
OceanaGold OGC.to jun'13 C$3.03 16-sep-12 C$1.18 -61.1% sold on gold drop
IMPACT Silver IPT.v jun'13 C$1.14 13-ene-13 C$0.62 -45.6% sold on silver drop
Duran Ventures DRV.v jun'13 C$0.045 10-may-13 C$0.025 -44.4% ST trade never worked
Plata Latina PLA.v jun'13 C$0.79 10-abr-12 C$0.13 -83.5% closed
Bellhaven BHV.v jun'13 C$0.065 03-jun-13 C$0.12 84.6% closed ST trade
B2Gold BTO.to aug'13 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.44 12.1% sold 1/2 to raise cash
Colossus Min. CSI.to aug'13 C$0.72 24-jul-13 C$0.79 9.7% closed thru nerves on future
Pretium Res PVG.to aug'13 C$8.20 11-jun-13 C$10.14 23.7% closed to raise cash
Bear Creek BCM.v sep'13 C$2.06 30-may-13 C$2.20 6.8% sold on pol risk decision
MAG Silver MVG oct'13 U$7.00 12-sep-13 U$5.62 19.6% near-term short
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'13 U$9.52 03-may-13 U$4.98 47.7% short tgt made, covered
AQM Copper AQM.v oct'13 C$0.31 16-oct-11 C$0.125 -59.7% closed failed trade
First Majestic AG nov'13 U$11.51 07-nov-13 U$10.50 8.8% v near term short, closed
Fortuna Silver FSM nov'13 U$4.00 07-nov-13 U$3.68 8.0% v near term short, closed
Primero PPP nov'13 U$5.70 07-nov-13 U$5.75 -0.9% v near term short, closed
Starcore Intl SAM.to nov'13 C$0.235 08-sep-13 C$0.17 -27.7% ST trade didn't work, sm loss
B2Gold BTO.to dec'13 C$2.22 28-nov-12 C$2.16 -2.7% closed ST trade to raise cash
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2012
Closed in 2012 closed close PPS
Soltoro SOL.v jan'12 C$0.87 07-nov-11 C$0.94 8.0% cash moved to BCM.v
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to feb'12 C$0.84 13-oct-10 C$0.98 16.7% trade closed on ELG.v offer
Minefinders MFN feb'12 U$11.68 17-nov-11 U$14.80 26.7% target made, trade closed
Iron Creek IRN.v mar'12 C$0.58 26-sep-10 C$0.31 -46.6% time up on small bad trade
U.S. Silver USA.to apr'12 C$2.18 15-mar-12 C$1.86 -14.7% ST trade no good, cut loss
Augusta Res. AZC.to may'12 C$3.10 29-jan-12 C$2.07 -33.2% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Bellhaven BHV.v may'12 C$0.50 22-sep-10 C$0.28 -44.0% new mgmt not impressive
Zincore Metals ZNC.to may'12 C$0.325 29-jul-11 C$0.17 -47.7% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Soltoro SOL.v may'12 C$0.70 18-mar-11 C$0.41 -41.4% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
U.S. Silver USA.to aug'12 C$1.78 27-jul-12 C$1.36 -23.6% fail ST trade close pre split
Estrella Gold EST.v aug'12 C$0.91 27-mar-11 C$0.14 -84.6% Closed on port realignment
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'12 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.32 397.2% sell call $6.17/ Mar25
Strait Minerals SRD.v oct'12 C$0.125 09-dec-11 C$0.12 -4.0% closing coverage til FY13
Sunward Res SWD.to oct'12 C$1.47 13-mar-11 C$1.21 -17.7% sold, took loss
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'12 U$21.47 09-sep-12 U$17.40 19.0% Short trade closed
Yellowhead Min. YMI.to nov'12 C$1.00 01-apr-12 C$0.63 -37.0% sold, took loss
Primero Mining PPP nov'12 U$7.26 07-oct-12 U$6.73 7.3% Short trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v nov'12 C$3.38 07-nov-11 C$3.72 10.1% Took small profit
Vena Resources VEM.to dec'12 C$0.70 31-may-09 C$0.18 -74.3% Failed trade (caps F)
Galway Res GWY.v dec'12 C$2.19 24-nov-12 C$2.30 5.0% closed good ST arb trade
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2011
Closed in 2011 closed close PPS
Sunward Res SWD.v jan'11 C$1.05 21-nov-10 C$1.63 55.2% target made, trade closed
Serengeti Res SIR.v mar'11 C$0.245 05-dec-10 C$0.285 16.3% sold pre-tgt, ST trade fail
Fronteer Gold FRG apr'11 U$2.37 03-may-09 U$15.24 543.0% buyout, trade closed
Minefinders MFN apr'11 U$9.09 07-nov-10 U$16.89 85.8% target made, trade closed
Metalline Min. MMG may'11 U$1.04 26-jan-11 U$0.89 -14.4% exit, resource disappointed
Peregrine Met PGM.to jul'11 C$0.87 06-mar-11 C$2.60 198.9% buyout offer, closed
Dynasty Metals DMM.to jul'11 C$4.20 03-may-09 C$2.85 -32.1% Sold. Fail. Move on.
Aura Silver AUU.v aug'11 C$0.22 13-oct-10 C$0.16 -36.4% Bad pick. Take loss
U.S. Silver USA.v aug'11 C$0.52 26-jan-11 C$0.71 36.5% closed to make room
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'11 C$2.80 12-may-11 C$4.27 52.5% target made, trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v sep'11 C$3.80 27-may-11 C$4.17 9.7% macro sell call victim
Minefinders MFN sep'11 U$14.70 10-aug-11 U$15.15 3.1% macro sell call victim
Great Panther GPR.to sep'11 C$3.03 22-aug-11 C$2.64 -12.9% macro sell call victim
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'11 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.36 400.9% sold 20%, macro sell call
Focus Ventures FCV.v nov'11 C$0.40 20-apr-10 C$0.20 -50.0% cut losses, bad trade
Regulus Res. REG.v dec'11 C$1.17 14-aug-11 C$0.52 -55.6% cut on news of poor 43-101
2009 and 2010 closed positions in appendices below
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2010
Closed in 2010 closed close PPS
B2Gold Corp BTO.to Jan'10 C$0.88 08-nov-09 C$1.49 68.2% target made, trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v Jan'10 C$0.18 23-aug-09 C$0.40 122.2% target made, trade closed
MAG Silver MVG mar'10 U$5.60 23-nov-09 U$7.28 30.0% closed in pdac week
Riverside Res RRI.v mar'10 C$0.435 20-sep-09 C$0.60 37.9% closed in pdac week
Amarillo Gold AGC.v mar'10 C$0.81 31-may-09 C$0.70 -13.6% closed in pdac week
B2Gold Corp BTO.to apr'10 C$1.24 18-feb-10 C$1.50 21.0% target made, trade closed
Lumina Copper LCC.v apr'10 C$0.84 14-jun-09 C$1.55 51.2% total position now sold
Troy Resources TRY.to may'10 C$1.10 03-may-09 C$2.25 104.5% sold on negative results
AuEx Ventures XAU.to may'10 C$2.51 24-may-09 C$3.38 34.7% trade closed
Nevada Copper NCU.to jun'10 C$3.27 14-mar-10 C$2.03 -37.9% need to lower Cu exposure
Carpathian Gold CPN.to jun'10 C$0.39 14-mar-10 C$0.35 -10.3% too exposed to cap raising
Amerix PM Corp APM.v jun'10 C$0.065 08-nov-09 C$0.05 -23.1% victim of macro bear
Antares Minerals ANM.v jun'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$2.10 47.9% sold half
Vena Resources VEM.to jun'10 C$0.37 31-may-09 C$0.23 -37.8% sold half
Minera Andes MAI.to sep'10 C$0.75 28-jul-10 C$0.95 26.7% ST trade closed
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to sep'10 C$0.52 01-aug-10 C$0.75 44.2% target made, trade closed
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'10 C$1.45 25-may-10 C$2.01 34.5% target made, trade closed
Blue Sky Uran BSK.v oct'10 C$0.41 19-may-10 C$0.22 -46.3% v small v bad trade closed
Dia Bras Expl DIB.v oct'10 C$0.14 30-aug-09 C$0.35 150.0% target made, trade closed
S. Amer. Silver SAC.to nov'10 C$1.38 24-oct-10 C$1.60 -15.9% loss on short, small fail
Ventana Gold VEN.to nov'10 C$7.92 27-jun-10 C$13.51 70.6% trade closed on buyout
Lumina Copper LCC.v nov'10 C$1.42 11-aug-10 C$3.65 157.0% trade closed
Antares Minerals ANM.v dec'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$8.40 491.5% trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.v dec'10 C$0.69 23-mar-10 C$2.16 213.0% trade closed
Coro Mining COP.to dec'10 C$0.585 03-oct-10 C$1.24 112.0% target made, trade closed
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2009
Closed positions closed closing PPS
Cardero Res CDY/CDU.to May'09 U$1.20 03-May-09 U$0.87 -27.5% sold on negative news
Eastmain Res. ER.to May'09 C$1.04 06-May-09 C$1.315 26.4% trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v May'09 C$0.165 03-May-09 C$0.235 42.4% trade closed
Latin Amer Min. LAT.v May'09 C$0.12 03-May-09 C$0.158 29.2% trade closed
Aquiline Res. AQI.to July'09 C$2.03 16-Jun-09 C$1.68 -17.2% took loss, bad timing
Chariot Resources CHD.to Aug'09 C$0.20 12-Jul-09 C$0.415 107.5% trade closed
Castle Gold CSG.v Sep'09 C$0.64 02-Aug-09 C$0.60 -6.3% ST trade didn't work out
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to Sep'09 C$2.30 12-May-09 C$4.50 95.7% profit taken
Los Andes Copper LA.v Sep'09 C$0.09 21-Jun-09 C$0.09 0% trade closed
Pediment Gold PEZ.to Oct'09 C$0.80 09-Aug-09 C$1.00 25.0% trade closed
Minera Andes MAI.to Oct'09 C$0.68 03-May-09 C$0.71 4.4% too much bad news
Dynasty Metals DMM.to Nov'09 C$4.18 03-May-09 C$6.01 43.8% half sold
Rusoro Mining RML.v Nov'09 C$0.55 03-May-09 C$0.57 3.6% underperformed
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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