IKN #333Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 333, September 27th 2015
Contents
This Week: Next week's IKN Weekly may be one day late, Gold beat the miners.
Fundamental Analysis: Minera IRL (MIRL.L) (IRL.to): The end may be nearer than you think.
Stocks to Follow: Overview, Midas Gold (MAX.to), Timmins Gold (TGD) (TMM.to), Teranga
Gold (TGZ.to) (TGZ.ax), Dalradian Resources (DNA.to), B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG), Lake Shore
Gold (LSG.to) (LSG), True Gold (TGM.v), New Gold (NGD) (NGD.to) Atacama Pacific (ATM.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Capstone Mining (CS.to), Panoro Minerals (PML.v).
Low Cost Producer Basket: Overview, Buenaventura (BVN), Agnico Eagle (AEM).
Regional Politics: Regional Review next week, Colombia: Peace breaking out (again)?,
Perumin things, Burkina Faso after the damp squib coup, Guatemala: Jimmy Morales well ahead
in second round polls.
Market Watching: HudBay (HBM) chutzpah and South American press naïveté, Another
bottom signal.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Next week's IKN Weekly may be one day late
A heads-up on IKN334, because due to certain logistical matters I may need one extra day to
write up the Weekly next weekend. Right now my best and most honest guess is that it's 50/50
that I can get the job done in my normal timeframe, but if need be the IKN Weekly issue 334
may end up arriving on Monday October 5th instead of Sunday October 4th.
If I take the extra day, consider these lines my apology in advance. But it's a one-off and
normal Sunday evening service will resume as per.
Gold beat the miners
A nice move in gold last week, breaking
U$1,150/oz for the first time since I can’t
remember offhand and throwing the cloak
of sudden silence over the hitherto
vociferous gold bear camp (who are now
carefully choosing longer timescale charts
to prove their points...they’d better not
choose too long a scale though, got to
pick them very carefully if the agenda is to
be kept).
For sure we closed a little under
U$1,150/oz come Friday and the slight
weakness filtered through, but the result
is that chart above and it’s a bit of a
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rarity, gold the positive metal beating out the gold stocks, the juniors and silver which were all
negative over the five days.
Want my take on it? In the end it’s simple; this is gold really taking back the mantle of go-to
safe haven and protection of capital in dangerous and nervous times. Or if you like, Mrs/Mr
Equity investor trader and player, be careful what you wish for.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
"I assume Diego Benavides is a member of THE
Benavides family. The people at IRL must be
living in some sort of alternate universe to
think they can win a fight with him (them)"
Reader 'BM', mail to your author
September 24th 2015 (1)
Minera IRL (MIRL.L) (IRL.to): The end may be nearer than you think
There are three main parts to today's update on Minera IRL and as it's now becoming rather
legal in nature, we're all about that.
• What we can expect from the charges made by Diego Benavides against Daryl Hodges,
Jaime Pinto, Robin Fryer, Douglas Jones and Carlos Yrigoyen (collectively, part of "Team
Hodges").
• What we can expect from the charges made by Team Hodges (officially Minera IRL
(IRL.to) (MIRL.L) against Diego Benavides et al (Team Benavides).
• As a special extra bonus, we look at one facet of the fascinating history of Jaime Pinto,
non-executive chair of Minera IRL (MIRL.L) (IRL.to). His is a story you won't want to miss.
In fact I'm pretty sure he'll be fascinated to see it reported in the English language for the
first time ever, too (what with the interest Team Hodges has regarding all things IKN
these days).
But before we dive in, a clear warning: As this whole IRL thing is now a story that's moved into
active litigation, I the writer and analyst have to be very careful about what I write. Therefore
I'd like to make it perfectly clear that today's piece is my personal opinion based on analysis of
publicly available documents along with consideration of what we know of the case to date. The
following is a reflection of my own views and reading of the whole affair, no more no less.
Regarding the charges made by Team Benavides against Team Hodges
Without being privy to any sensitive information (in today's piece there's no mention any of the
specific charges made against either side) though told clearly by lawyers representing Diego
Benavides that the charges against these people are both serious and come with ample hard
evidence of their wrongdoing, last week I was given a walk-through of how the case against
Daryl Hodges, Jaime Pinto, Robin Fryer, Douglas Jones and Carlos Yrigoyen (from now on
"Team Hodges") is expected to develop. In a nutshell it works like this:
The original charges against Daryl Hodges and Carlos Yrigoyen were filed on September 8th
2015 (and on this score, it matters not if the people in question play fakey make-believe and
say they didn't know about the criminal charges they face until recently, all that means is their
lawyers in Peru dropped the ball) and were extended to the other three names last week. The
fact it was the first charge made makes all other charges form both sides subordinate to the
original criminal charges. Any charge made against Diego Benavides is, therefore, a counter-
charge.
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The case is now in the hands of the public prosecutor. If that offices decides there is a valid
case to answer (I'll bet you big money they say there is) all five of the people charges will have
to appear in court in Peru in order to defend themselves. They are very unlikely to be arrested
at any point in they comply with the judicial process.
If they decide not to appear in court on the allotted dates, an order to force them to appear will
be emitted by the judge. If that is then ignored, Interpol steps in and will be responsible for
bringing them from wherever they are to Peru, which in practical terms would happen at the
moment those people crossed any international border (e.g. migrations at an airport), not just
into or out of Peru. They would then be brought directly to Peru to answer the charges (and at
this point likely arrested and kept in custody due to flight risk).
It would then be for the court to decide innocence or guilt on any/all charges. If found guilty,
the five men would undoubtedly face jail time in Peru.
To sum up this section: Don't for a minute dismiss the charges against 'Team Hodges' as some
sort of strategic move or lightweight in nature; I know for a fact that Diego Benavides is deadly
serious about seeing these charges through to conviction and has been waiting for the right
moment to bring them forward in order to clear his name that he says has been unjustly sullied
by a whole range of false accusations. As with Interpol involved, if members of Team Hodges
living in countries other than Peru decide to ignore directives to appear in court they're going to
have a tough time leaving any country for any other.
Regarding the charges made by Team Hodges against Team Benavides
I firmly believe that the charges laid against Diego Benavides and those who sail with him
aren't simply not going to be admitted by the Peru public prosecutor, they're going to be
laughed out of court. That's all I'm saying on this matter. Assuming this is so, we'll find out
when the Peruvian judge in charge of the case announces that the charges against Benavides
aren't worth bothering with and they're not admitted to a formal court, being as they are a
waste of time. And when that happens no amount of whisper campaign in Lima will be able to
besmirch his name.
Last week we wrote this at the start of the IRL piece: "The one repeated message I heard from
people last week about the Minera IRL saga is how "Diego Benavides has to clear his name" in
order to progress and put together a credible alternative to the sneak thieves who have tried to
take over the company from Canada". That's still true today and the way in which Team
Hodges is now bombarding the world with litigations and threats of law suits (your author
included...how cute they are) indicates that they're now trying to hide behind the law in order
to get their way (or at least try find a way out). And if you sit down long enough to think about
it, the only way in which these people are going to be removed is by calling an AGM or an EGM,
proposing a proxy slate.
One of the things that Team Benavides has faced in the "clear the name" campaign is a
persistent rumour that all is not well in the books of the two wholly-owned subsidiaries at
Minera IRL, the two companies that run the Peru operations inside the larger corporate
structure and have Diego Benavides as President. The Team Hodges whisper campaign has
been keen on promoting the idea that inside the subsidiaries all is not right and there's a multi-
million dollar fraud going on.
Under normal circumstances, what you'd expect from a functioning corporation is that the
public company board/executive would be invited in by the subsidiary executive in order to look
at the books and check to see if everything's in order. However, since hostilities opened
between Team Hodges and Team Benavides, Diego Benavides has refused access to Team
Hodges to the subsidiary accounts and suchlike. This is understandable, because when you're in
a fight you don't just start handing over weaponry to your enemy (and of course there are large
slices of ego in play in this whole affair, on both sides of the battle) but equally it does leave
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you open to the type of whisper campaign that's been going around about Benavides and
Hodges being the type of lowlife he is has jumped at the chance. One of the results is that you
get paid-for coverage from people like the now forever ignored Alistair Ford of
Minesite/Proactive investors writing pro-Hodges puff pieces (2) that talk of "uncertainty as to
the final destination of tens of millions of dollars" from the Benavides-controlled subsidiaries. No
evidence of course, but as Ford is being paid by Team Hodges to write his guff, that's what you
the gullible reader get to read.
But now Team Benavides has the solution at hand on this score. Due to the whole fight now
moving to courts, what Diego Benavides has done is voluntarily opened his books to the
Peruvian public prosecutor. In this way they get a full independent audit (Benavides has stated
until he's blue in the face that there has been nothing untoward going on in the subsidiaries,
despite the incessant whisper campaign and use of the rumour mill by his enemies, so by
opening the books freely to a third party he has nothing to fear) but the hard numbers inside
the subsidiaries are kept away from the eyes of Team Hodges.
Lastly, it's important to highlight who is the true audience for these charges and counter-
charges because it's not you and it's not me, it's not even the public prosecutor or the judge in
charge of the case. The main audience are the handful of people who would form part of or
back a new board of directors, that's the true audience for the Benavides-Clear-Your-Name
campaign. Yes of course it's not nice when the city in which you live or the sector in which you
work has you as the butt of a vicious and false rumour campaign, so clearing your name in the
public realm will also matter. But the people Team Benavides must convince to their own
satisfaction are the people who would eventually put their own reputations on the line as the
new board to replace this most disastrous and false current board of directors. Consider that it
would work like this:
• Team Benavides knows that the current board are just trying to drain the company and
fire sale the asset to a waiting-in-wings third party in a cosy and mutually profitable deal
(a deal which will screw all other stakeholders.
• Team Benavides wants to build the mine under the terms of the COFIDE deal, see
everyone win and benefit from the next working gold mine in Peru.
• Team Benavides therefore know that the only way to change things, especially now that
litigation has started to fly back and forth, is to call an AGM/EGM, run a proxy slate, throw
out the bad and bring in the new good people who will execute on the plan correctly.
• Team Benavides assembles a group of people willing and able to become the new
directors (at this point, I remind people that Diego Benavides does not want to be on the
board of directors no matter what his enemies might other wise claim; his interest is to
have a board that can scrutinize his work as IRL CEO as he moves the project forward).
• However, the new slate of directors are keen that Benavides clears his name before they
come fully on board (quite right too, they don't want anything blowing up in their faces at
the last minute).
• Therefore Team Benavides brings charges against Team Hodges on various scores,
including defamation of character, and at the same time manages to easily bat away the
lightweight and insubstantial charges Team Hodges makes against him (the "laugh out of
court" moment that's coming up in the next few weeks).
• At the same time, Benavides voluntarily offers the books of the two subsidiary companies
at which he is president to the public prosecutor for full independent examination. When
they're deemed clean by that third party, it will be difficult for the sold-out scum such as
Alistair Ford to keep the campaign going.
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• At this point Team Hodges may try to bog the whole thing down in civil litigation but by
that time the people who really matter, that projected slate of directors, will be confident
that Diego's in the clear and the overwhelming weight of evidence lays against Team
Hodges. That's the moment when the proxy slate firms up and power is wrested away
from the bad guys and into the hands of the good guys.
And all that, ladies and gentlemen readers , is what's going to happen at Minera IRL. Take it to
the bank. What's more, when it does it's going to be wholly positive for the state of the
company share price.
As for the timeline on all this, most people I've spoken to outside the story looking in are now
assuming that we're in for a long judicial battle, writs and charges and pieces of paper flying
hither and thither, months of legal wrangling in the pipeline. But after talking with key members
of Team Benavides I'm of the opinion that it ain't necessarily so Joe. Once the Team Hodges
charges against Benavides are thrown out (they will be) the people who would back a new
board will have ample reason to move forward more quickly than the market currently imagines
and get the ball rolling on the only true way to bring closure to this whole sordid affair, that
new AGM and a new board voted in. Yes for sure we're in the hands of the Peruvian prosecutor
and will be for a few weeks, but don't get downbeat about this Team Hodges talk of "months"
in their NR last week, that may well turn out to be wishful thinking on their part.
The fascinating history of Mr. Jaime Pinto
And now for the special bonus section on Jaime Pinto, which may at first seem unconnected to
the above but I can assure you it is closely tied in with the near future of the current IRL board
of directors.
In order to get a handle on the new non-executive chairman of Minera IRL we need to travel
back in time nearly twenty years (seriously) to the time of the Fujimori government, when dirty
deals and institutional corruption was rife. If we do, Jaime Pinto's name pops up in the middle
of one of the scandals. It's a long and complicated story (as are most multi-million dollar
government corruption scandals) but the essence is simple and the M.O. is similar to the debt
default fight we've seen in Argentina these last couple of years. The skinny is as follows:
• In the mid-1990's Peru's economy was in trouble and its bonds were trading badly
• In 1996, Elliot Associates (yes, the very same as the Argentina case, headed by Paul
Singer and everything) bought (face value) U$20.6m worth of Peru debt bonds for
U$11.4m. The seller was SBC (Swiss Bank).
• In 1998, Elliot Associates sued the government of Peru for the full value plus interest plus
damages of those bonds for U$66m. After a couple of years of legal beagling Elliot Assoc
won the case and the appeal.
• In October 2000 Peru settled with Elliot Associates For U$58m.
In other words, Elliot Associates "did a vulture fund" on Peru. They bought up distressed debt,
the sued the country for the full amount and then managed to get a very lucrative settlement
out of the deal, all in the space of just four and a bit years. So far so morally dubious, but the
post-event uncovering of illegality of the case is another matter and that's where our nice Mr
Jaime Pinto comes in (3). Follow carefully and follow the dates, too:
1) In the period 1994 to 1996, Jaime Pinto was working in the government at the Ministry of
Economy and Finances (MEF). Amongst other matters, he was in charge of overseeing all
transactions made by SBC (Swiss Bank).
2) According to Peruvian law, SBC could NOT sell its Peru sovereign debt holdings to a third
party without first getting permission from the government. SBC had to sell them to the
National Bank (Banco de la Nación) or at least offer them to the national bank first.
3) When SBC sold its bonds to Elliot Associates, it told nobody. That's naughty. However Jaime
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Pinto would have seen the transaction go through and having the power to do so he should
have stopped it. He didn't. And then he should have rung the alarm bell on the deal to the
government. He didn't do that either. These are gross derelictions of duty.
4) Then Jaime Pinto left the MEF (according to the congressional committee report he left on
bad terms too) and after a brief sojourn in a different company was hired as a lawyer for none
other than... Elliot Associates! Yes, amazingly he went to work for a Peru studio that worked
directly for the Paul Singer company. There's no doubt that Pinto had a significant amount of
restricted (inside) information about Peru's debt position, but went to work for a company that
was trying to squeeze the country on that very debt.
5) When the judicial decision went with Elliot Associates and against the State of Peru, the
eventual payment was made (against the advice of Peru's own lawyers in the Fujimori
government) because Singer was threatening to stop new debt emissions and bring the country
into default (notably the very same strategy it's used vs Argentina). Pinto would have known
about this weak spot in the Peru government's defence.
6) The U$58m payment was made by the government of Peru to Elliot Associates in October
2000. Just one month later, the government of Alberto Fujimori fell during the "Vladivideo"
scandal and light began to shine on the corruption during his presidency.
As part of the investigations into the Fujimori era corruptions, a congressional committee was
set up to look into cases of supposed fraud. The Elliot case was one of the matters they looked
at. In July 2003, the congressional commission published its report on the Elliot case and came
to two main conclusions. Here's the screenshot of the relevant segment of the document (found
on this link (4), it's a long one in Spanish but feel free to dive in, it's fun)
That second recommendation translates as follows;
Press criminal charges against Dr. Jaime Pinto for having advised Elliot Associates
between January and February 1998 with privileged (insider) information regarding the
external debt of Peru. Currently, Dr. Pinto has been named by the Ministry of Economy
and Finance as representative of the government of Peru at the Inter-American
Development Bank.
In other words, the congressional committee found enough evidence to recommend criminal
charges against Jaime Pinto for multi-million dollar corruption and use of insider information.
What happened then is that we don't really know how, but the case got "lost" in the hurly-burly
of the transition government and then the Toledo government and all kind of forgotten about
until quite recently.
So to sum up, we know that Jaime Pinto was up to his neck in a big corruption scandal
involving inside information, big money and dirty doings. But it was all a long time ago right? So
what's this got to do with 2015 and the fact that the very same Jaime Pinto is now the
chairperson of Minera IRL? A good question, here's the answer:
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It just so happens that the corruption case involving Elliot Assoc, Jaime Pinto and the Peru
government bonds was never closed! It was never dismissed, laid to rest or annulled. It's still
classified as "frozen" "pending" or "open" (or similar) in the annals of the Peruvian court system
and because of that I'd be able to hazard a guess that the case is now being re-examined by a
team of lawyers who may be interested in dusting off the files, de-frosting it and bringing the
case to a more fitting conclusion, because the penalties if found guilty of the crimes alleged are
not small, we're talking serious stretch jail time here. That is of course if Jaime Pinto continues
to try to pin wholly false and misleading allegations on all and sundry because that's when
teams of lawyers becomes really, but really interested in the past history of their adversaries.
However there's always the opportunity to come to a mutually acceptable negotiated
agreement in such a country, certainly one of the advantages of living in a democracy where
everyone is innocent until proven guilty.
Stocks to Follow
Of the 16 open positions currently in the Stocks to Follow list, just four gave us gains last week
(TGD, ATM.v, LRA.v, TGM.v) and another three were unchanged (LSG.to, IRL.to suspended,
REG.v). Which means nine stocks returned a week-over-week loss (not listing them all) that
include the bigger percentage losers Legend Gold (LGN.v down 30.0%), Starcore International
(SAM.to down 10.0%) and Top Pick B2Gold (BTO.to down 8.1%), which can't seem to catch a
break at the moment (yes, I'm slightly concerned there).
With MAX.to out and TGM.v in, we still have 16 open positions in our 'Stocks to Follow' list, one
more than my usual self-imposed maximum number and a temporary state of affairs. Four
stocks are in the green, one is unchanged, eleven are red.
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company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICK
B2Gold BTO.to STR BUY C$2.17 12-sep-14 C$1.48 -31.8% Top Pick, 1st tgt $2.70
Metals Producers (in current order of preference)
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to buy C$1.07 07-apr-15 C$1.15 7.6% Added Aug, M&A tgt
Teranga Gold TGZ.to str buy C$0.57 15-feb-15 C$0.60 5.3% Added Aug, 83c tgt v cheap
McEwen Mining MUX hold U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$0.925 -15.1% Recovering from lows
New Gold NGD buy U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$2.31 6.0% $3 Price tgt set Sep 6
Timmins Gold TGD buy U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.25 2.0% New position, quick flip idea
Starcore Intl SAM.to spec buy C$0.12 10-jan-15 C$0.09 -25.0% Also "land grab", tgt 19c
Land Grab Stocks (in current order of preference)
Phoscan Chem FOS.to hold C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.275 -1.8% 36c/share of cash
Atacama Pacific ATM.v hold C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.175 -7.9% Spec buy, cheap adv proj
Legend Gold LGN.v hold C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% Spec buy, v small, not working
Lara Expl. LRA.v spec buy C$1.15 08-apr-12 C$0.275 -76.1% solid biz model, LT hold
Other Recommended Stocks (in current order of preference)
Dalradian Res DNA.to hold C$0.64 27-oct-13 C$0.75 17.2% New tgt on financing Sep 20
Minera IRL IRL.to BUY C$0.195 22-jul-12 C$0.075 -61.5% Trading suspended
True Gold TGM.v spec buy C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.18 0.0% Sm. pol risk hit sep'15
Focus Ventures FCV.v hold C$0.23 01-jul-12 C$0.18 -21.7% tgt 50c, phospate great value
Regulus Res REG.v hold C$0.30 06-apr-15 C$0.245 -18.3% Comm. Rels slow progress
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'14 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'14 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'14 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'14 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 closed positions in appendices below
Now for some notes on current basket stocks.
Midas Gold (MAX.to): Position closed. In the end I took a bit more of a percentage loss
than I expected this time last week, because MAX traded weakly in the first couple of days and
that’s during the time I dumped. So be it.
For what it's worth, MAX couldn't rally with the rest of them as the week wore on and we also
saw improved volumes, capped by nearly half a million shares traded between 30c and 33c on
Thursday. Though I'm now out, that day has the smell of an interim bottom about it so if you're
braver than I there may be the move back to 38c/40c to play from here.
Timmins Gold (TMM.to) (TGD): Position opened. Aside from a couple of details, this trade
as outlined last weekend has started on rails and is going to plan. As a reminder, we're looking
to benefit from a rebound that has Goldcorp's (GG) move into the stock (via cash and fixed
assets) as its catalyst and as I got the type of sub-25c price I was looking for on Monday
morning, I'm now long. The only details that have gone "wrong" (very much between inverted
8

commas):
I could have got a sub-23c price early Monday morning, but quite simply I wasn't paying
attention and missed the brief window.
No matter, I like my 24.5c cost average
well enough.
Friday saw TGD (the US listing and my
vehicle) trading between 26c and 27c all
day, right up to the very last tick which
dumped it to its 25c close. I'm not that
worried about a final falsie like this, it'll
wash through next week, but want to
point out that the 0.5c profit so far isn't
a true reflection on the acceptance
gathered by Timmins Gold last week.
Teranga Gold (TGZ.to) (TGZ.ax): Last week and along with many other companies, TGZ
presented at the Denver Gold Forum and of the speeches I've seen (watching recordings,
mostly of the stocks I own/cover) it's the most interesting. You can see the PDF presentation
that went with the talk on this link (5) and it's worth checking out. Much was made of its strong
social licence in the presentation by company President/CEO Richard Young, but they don't
move markets. What does is hard numbers and on the two key points, the phrase is "lower end
of guidance".
• For production, TGZ is now expecting 2015 to come in at the lower end of its guidance
range (200k to 230k). This mean I have to shave perhaps 10k oz off the house model.
• For costs, TGZ also expects 2015 to
come in at the lower end of its guidance
range ($900-$975 per ounce).
The two matters are connected of course, and
the main reason is that TGZ has decided to re-
schedule some of the mining at the new
higher grading Gora deposit in order to mine
more cheaply. In trading, the market reacted
negatively to the lower production news in
2015, but the blip was only temporary and
buyers were there to snap up cheapies.
Dalradian Resources (DNA.to): The story last
week at DNA is that of a stock being sat upon by a
big financing, there's an obvious lid on the price at
80c and nobody's paying that much on the open
market until they know the bot deal has been a
success and the brokerages have moved all the
merchandise. I can't say I'm surprised. We wait until
the closure (due week after next) and then it'll be a
case of seeing how it reacts.
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B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to): A lacklustre week for B2, underperforming the market once again
and getting me to scratch my chin on this whole Top Pick decision not for the first time. B2 also
presented at the Denver Gold Forum as well as Beaver Creek the previous week (at Beaver
Creek it was just about the most popular show of the whole conference, Standing Room Only
when many other talks were half empty) but notably Clive Johnson was not present, word is
that "he is ill". We know he had a bit of leg trouble earlier in the year so IKN wishes him a
speedy recovery and better health, whatever is ailing him.
In trading, the stock followed the benchmarks most of the week but got truly stuffed on Friday
afternoon, it seems to be in the front line when it comes to such moves.
Lake Shore Gold (LSG.to): LSG stuck in a good week at the markets, consolidating its gains
of the week before and notably on good volumes in the latter part of the week. The "small and
profitable Canadian gold producers" as featured by Peter Koven in his Finanical Post report last
week include LSG as noted on the blog (6) and they're becoming quite the fashion thing to
own, all of a sudden. Here's that chunk of the Koven piece that I put on the blog again, by way
of a reminder:
But Kirkland Lake Gold righted itself and is now thriving amid a much weaker gold
price. And it isn’t alone. Other small and medium-sized Canadian gold producers in the
region, such as Detour Gold Corp., Lake Shore Gold Corp., Claude Resources Inc.
and Richmont Mines Inc., have staged impressive turnarounds after being left for dead
by many investors two years ago
This is good.
True Gold (TGM.v): Last week in IKN332:
I expect TGM will make up the 2c lost last week pretty quickly and as such it's
my idea of a decent though risky trade vehicle for those of you with the
penchant for quick flip risk-taking.
10

IKN333 here we are, the two cents re-gained and back at 18c this weekend. And that's re3ally
all there is to say here, the Burkina Faso political upheaval has done some image damage to its
apparent stability (or lack of) at the institutional level but on a day-to-day basis it's not going to
affect the business sector there, nor specifically this project (which is far more exposed to the
opinion of local leaders, rather than national).
I suppose if you're going to invest or trade in a region like West Africa (makes South America
look stable and serious) you're always going to have to roll with the punches of this sort,
expecting the unexpected takes on a whole new level of truth. For me this is a near(ish) term
set up and I don't really care if the mine turns out to be popular with locals or profitable for
backers five year down the line. I'll just sell mine when the price runs to 25c or 30c and say
thank you.
New Gold (NGD) (NGD.to): I'm again enchanted (no other word) by NGD's volatility and I
wish I were better at daytrading, because a week high of U$2.57 and a low of U$2.21 with a
Friday finish of U$2.31 leaves a lot of room to play.
Atacama Pacific (ATM.v): A 16.7% weekly gain makes for a cool headline, but when you
realize it was on one single trade of 5,000 shares on Monday and the thing didn't even open for
the next four days, its shine is lost somewhat. A deep breath, some patience.
The Copper Basket
After thirty-nine weeks of 2015, The Copper Basket is showing a 32.22% loss to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/15 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Reservoir Min. RMC.v 3.96 47.55 219.68 4.62 16.7%
2 Capstone Min. CS.to 2.03 381.95 175.70 0.46 -77.3%
3 NGEx Resources NGQ.to 1.17 187.71 108.87 0.58 -50.4%
4 Nevada Copper NCU.to 1.65 80.5 73.26 0.91 -44.8%
5 Copper Fox CUU.v 0.135 402.96 64.47 0.16 18.5%
6 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.27 173.65 46.02 0.265 -1.9%
7 Western Copper WRN.to 0.68 93.68 36.07 0.385 -43.4%
8 NovaCopper NCQ.to 0.58 60.15 33.68 0.56 -3.4%
9 Hot Chili Ltd HCH.ax 0.16 333.11 33.31 0.10 -37.5%
10 Panoro Minerals PML.v 0.295 220.64 30.89 0.14 -52.5%
11 Regulus Res REG.v 0.35 56.39 13.82 0.245 -30.0%
12 Metminco MNC.ax 0.008 2650 13.25 0.005 -37.5%
13 AQM Copper AQM.v 0.06 141 5.64 0.04 -33.3%
14 Catalyst Copper CCY.v 0.305 31.41 4.71 0.15 -50.8%
15 Coro Mining COP.to 0.045 159.37 3.19 0.02 -55.6%
NB: HCH.ax & MNC.ax priced in AUD$, rest CAD$ Portfolio avg -32.22%
The basket average lost another half point and 5% The Copper Basket 2015, weekly evolution
racked up another 2015 low, but inside the
0%
global figure there were sharp moves both up
-5%
and down. The basic count is five stocks up
-10%
(RMC.v, PML.v, ARG.to, NCQ.to, MNC.ax), three
-15%
stocks unchanged (CUU.v, REG.v, AQM.v) and
-20%
seven stocks down (CS.to, NGQ.to, NCU.to,
-25%
WRN.to, HCH.ax, COP.to, CCY.v). Biggest
-30%
percentage upmoves came from Metminco -35%
(MNC.ax up 25.0%), Panoro Minerals (PML.v up
12.0%) and Amerigo Resources (ARG.to up
11
ht4naj ht81 ts1bef ht51 ts1ram ht51 ht92 ht21 ht62 ht01 ht42 ht7nuj ts12 ht5luj ht91 dn2gua ht61 ht03 ht31 ht72
source: IKN calcs

10.4%), while the biggest to the downside were Coro Mining (COP.to down 20.0%), Capstone
Mining (CS.to down 14.8%) and Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to down 14.4%).
We’re now at 3/4 of the way through the year (believe it or not, how time flies) so it’s time to
run the comparative chart of our components and see how they’ve been evolving.
Copper Basket Components after 39 weeks
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
18.5% 16.7% -1.9% -3.4%
-20%
-40% -30.0%-33.3%-37.5%-37.5%
-43.4%-44.2%
-60% -50.4%-50.8%-52.5%-55.6%
-80% -77.3%
12
v.UUC v.CMR ot.GRA ot.QCN v.GER v.MQA xa.HCH xa.CNM ot.NRW ot.UCN ot.QGN v.YCC v.LMP ot.POC ot.SC
source: TSX, ASX, IKN stats and calcs
Believe it or not (betcha you believe) we have just two stocks in profit now, CUU.v and RMC.v.
Then two others are just about managing to tread
water (ARG.to and NCQ.to) and after that comes
the big gap, with eleven stocks all at 30% down on
the year or more...some of them a lot more, as five
have lost over half their value in these nine months.
A couple of non-perfomances stand out to my eyes:
The drop suffered by Nevada Copper (NCU.to) in
the last quarter was in my opinion way overdue,
and now it’s here. Then the walking disaster that is
Capstone Mining (CS.to) has felt the full weight of
its weak balance sheet and is now an impressive
77.3% down on the year. In short, it’s now being
priced as a Chapter 11 case. No surprise there for
regular readers.
As for copper prices, as this hourlies chart shows it
was not a good week for the metal. U$2,40/lb couldn't be held, we're back at sub-$2.30 levels
this weekend and everyone's lining up to "blame China" (how quickly they forget the only
reason copper moved away from $1/lb ten years ago)
As for the copper market feeling, on weeks such as last week when I've been busy doing other
things and paying less attention to the screen in market hours, I'll play catch-up on copper
news and views by tuning into the end-of-week wrap up comments from the bizwire services.
Reuters is my default setting and this (7) example is a good one, talking about the "...glut of
metal and sagging demand growth in top consumer China could come back to haunt copper
bulls" and so forth, and further down getting the opinion of copper trading desks and
brokerages notes that are talking about a calculated supper surplus next year of 569,000
tonnes (Merrill Lynch), the Goldman Sachs view that low copper prices are here to stay or the
Woodmac "glass half full" opinion that copper "will improve after 2020", by which time my
eldest may be applying for university places (that's scary). That Reuters note has suggestions
from various market talking heads of a potential bottom in the metal, with typical numbers
quoted between U$4,400/tonne and U$4,800/tonne (U$2.00/lb to U$2.18/lb). I think sub-$2 on

a spike is perfectly possible.
Now for the regular weekly inventory bullet points:
• Total world copper stocks rose slightly last week, up 6,004 metric tonnes (mt) (+1.2%)
to finish at 517,257mt.
• Shanghai stocks moved up yet again and by the same rough amount as in recent
weeks. The exact number this time was 7,668mt (+5.2%) and the total is now
155,5154mt. As stated last week, this is bearish.
• And once again, the arb between LME and Shanghai saw LME stocks drop a little, down
7,775mt (-2.3%) to finish at 325,275mt. Same as last week, this has the hallmarks of
one of those things that work right up to the moment when it doesn't.
• Comex warehouses rose sharply, up 6,121mt (+20.2%) to 36,467mt. That's the highest
number this year for the Comex system.
Here's the key Shanghai-only tracker and the song remains the same. We're now at stocks
levels that we normally only see at the beginning of the year between the Western world's
festive season and the Chinese new year and that's not a good sign for end user demand in
China.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014/2015
260000
240000
220000
200000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
13
31'13ceD ht21 ht62 ht9 dr32 ht9 dr32 ht6rpa ht02 ht4yam ht81 ts1enuj ht51 ht92 ht31 ht72 ht01 ht42 ht7 ts12 ht5tco ht91 dn2von ht61 ht03 ht41 ht82 ht11 ht52 ht8 dn22 ht8 dn22 ht5rpa ht91 dr3yam ht71 ts13 ht41 ht82 ht21 ht62 ht9 dr32 ht6pes ht02
Mt Cu
source: Cochilco
Now for notes on a couple of basket stocks:
Capstone Mining (CS.to): It's getting very easy to kick this one while it's down and it's
getting to be a popular pastime too by the looks of recent market commentary passing this
desk (though...ahem....please remember that IKN has been...ahem...pointing to the total dog
nature of this company and particularly its weak financial position all year, not just the last
couple of weeks...ahem), so even though my personal opinion of this stock is very clear and not
about to change, the contrarian in me wants to point to a recent positive signal for the stock.
Board chair George Brack has been putting his money where his mouth is recently, buying two
blocks of 100k shares in the last two weeks that have doubled his total shareholding at the
company (to 400k). At just over C$100k for the two purchases it's not the biggest vote of
confidence ever and I doubt he's risking all his net worth on this one, but it's chunky enough to
make mention and is obviously some sort of attempt by the board chief to draw a line in the

sand for CS.to's woeful share price performance in 2015.
Panoro Minerals (PML.v): On Tuesday last week PML announced an "updated PEA" (8)
which can be translated as "no new work, we re-jig the old numbers to make it look better" and
only took me (along with a handful of professional mining people who saw the document before
me and then sent me mails laughing at the NR) to reach the "assume $3/lb copper base case"
line to see where this complete waste of time
was heading.
For a real-world commentary on the document,
consider that there were whispers going round
the never-say-die hardcore support group of this
stock in the hours before the PEA NR was
published and that in the time on Monday and
Tuesday morning, nearly 300k shares were
traded and the stock was up. Then Wednesday it
dropped back to 12c on 60,000 shares, Thursday
it traded precisely zero shares all day, then to
cap all the fun on Friday it managed a 16.7%
rise (i.e. two cents) on one single trade of 5,000
shares. I think that even Garofalo of HudBay has this one worked out by now (and that's saying
something).
The Low Cost Producer Basket
After 39 weeks, the 2015 Low Cost Producer Basket is showing a 26.06% loss to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/15 Shares out Mkt Cap (Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Goldcorp GG 18.52 830 11.10 13.37 -27.8%
2 Newmont NEM 18.90 528.08 8.76 16.59 -10.2%
3 Barrick ABX 10.75 1164.67 7.65 6.57 -38.9%
4 Franco Nevada FNV 49.19 156.5 6.93 44.29 -10.0%
5 Agnico Eagle AEM 24.89 214.12 5.56 25.99 4.4%
6 Silver Wheaton SLW 20.33 403.75 5.02 12.43 -38.9%
7 Kinross KGC 2.82 1146.2 1.93 1.68 -40.4%
8 Buenaventura BVN 9.56 254.19 1.54 6.04 -36.8%
9 B2Gold BTG 1.62 926.68 1.03 1.11 -23.5%
10 Pan American PAAS 9.20 151.64 1.00 6.57 -28.6%
all prices in U$, using NYSE ticker prices Portfolio avg -26.06%
An interesting week for this tracking basket, one of those occasions that reminds me that’s it’s
been and is a useful part of the IKN
The Low Cost Producer Basket: Weekly performance
Weekly toolbox. Three stocks moved up
30% and comparative to GDX control
(FNV, SLW, AEM) with the best
performance by far Agnico Eagle, up a 20%
strong 6.3%). One stock was unchanged 10%
on the week (NEM) and that leaves six 0%
losers (GG, ABX, KGC, BVN, PAAS, BTG) -10%
and of those, the biggest losers were -20%
Buenaventura (BVN down 12.6%), -30%
B2Gold (BTG down 10.5%), Kinross
-40%
(KGC down 9.2%) and Pan American
Silver (PAAS down 7.5%). All those were
chunky sized losses and with the possible
14
ts13ceD ht4naj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1bef ht8 ht51 dr42 ts1ram ht8 ht51 dr32 ht92 ht5rpa ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yam ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7nuj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5luj ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2gua ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6peS ht31 ht02 ht72
basket
gdx control
source: Google Finance, IKN calcs

exception of Kinross (which had a something of a false uptick finish the week before last and
asjusted back to normality) it’s evident that the bigger sized stocks outperformed the smaller
caps very handily.
Low Cost Basket: Percentage difference between
The gap between our basket and GDX 3.0% basket and GDX control, 2014
remains at over 2% for the second week 2.0%
running. That’s the biggest negative gap 1.0%
we’ve run to the benchmark ETF all year 0.0%
and again is testament to the -1.0%
underperfomance of the smaller cap -2.0%
stocks in our list, which in our case get -3.0%
-4.0%
equal weighting but in the GDX are more
lightly weighted.
The relative outperformance of the
bigger stocks to the smaller ones is
interesting. The impression is of new insto-type money that’s moved into the places they’ll
always prefer first, large-cappers, which have consolidated the gains of the previous week
because the selling didn’t show. Meanwhile, the more speculative flows you see in relief rallies
during bear markets continue to dominate the smaller-sized companies (relatively speaking
small that is, as a stock like B2Gold is about the biggest thing we own on the main ‘Stocks to
Follow’ list). All this strikes me as another piece you’d want to see in order to get the type of
longer-term tide shift you’d want from this bottoming process.
Buenaventura (BVN): With Roque Benavides of BVN in charge of Perumin this week and
making all the conciliatory noises you’d care to hear, it was kind of ironic to watch BVN being
hit harder than just about anything else in the
large(r) gold miner sector and going under U$6
for the first time since 2003.
It wasn’t for the lack of positive news from the
company either, as BVN chose Perumin to
announce that it plans to submit for the
Environmental Impact Permit (EIA) for its 100%
owned San Gabriel (ex-Chucapaca) project in the
South of Peru, the one they were JVing with Gold
Fields until BVN bought out their partner about
18 months ago.
BVN also gave an overview of their plans for production at San Gabriel. Once a big, low-grade
open pit project that was estimated to run at 30,000 tpd onto heap leach pads, BVN now cares
only about the smaller, high grading core of the mineralization (estaimated at 2.5m oz) and will
use underground mining and a 3,000 tpd processing facility. According to VP Operations Igor
Gonzales grade should run at around 6.5 g/t and they’ll look to get perhaps 160,000 oz gold per
year at a low-end cash cost (no exact figure given). Capex is estimated at between U$460m to
U$520m. Part of that capex will be building out key infrastructure that will alow for an easy
doubling of throughput capacity if the company deems it fit in the future (one of those “snap on
another ball mill and we’re nearly there” designs, I’d expect). Overall it’s looking like San
Gabriel is turning into an interesting project and from what I’ve picked up on the
social/community jungledrums, BVN is doing things the right way and so far at least the locals
are accepting the company’s presence.
As regulars know, BVN is one of the stocks I’ve looked at the most without ever taking the
plunge and buying. As 2015 has turned out that avoid (so far) call has turned out to be the
right one, but we’re now into such a deep discount at the company that maybe for the first time
ever, I’m looking at it and thinking it’s not just reasonable value but plain cheap. It has
disadvantages, first of which being the Class A voting share structure which means Roque and
15
ts13ceD ht4naj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1bef ht8 ht51 dr42 ts1ram ht8 ht51 dr32 ht92 ht5rpa ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yam ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7nuj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5luj ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2gua ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6peS ht31 ht02 ht72
|
source: ikn calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq data

his family retains absolute control over the company and means BVN isn’t going to be a
takeover target (unless something very very strange happens and we don’t bet on strange). But
the whole “Peru Family” structure also
means that BVN (and its ilk) are equipped
to see out the bad cyclical times in mining
and stay in good structural shape.
The bottom line is that for U$1.5Bn you get
a company that produced 835,000 oz gold
and 1.88m oz and 18.9m oz silver in 2014,
plus owns just under 20% of Cerro Verde.
Its balance sheet is a little low on cash at
the moment, but it’s solid enough and its
whole raison d’etre as a company is to keep
(that branch of the) Benavides family as
part of the permanent aristocracy of Peru.
It’s not going away as a corporation
anytime soon.
Agnico Eagle (AEM): Among our basket of stocks the bigger caps were neutral or slightly
lower, the smaller caps got whacked and the single outlier to those categories is Agnico Eagle
which had a great week by climbing 6.3% and is once again back in the green on the year. The
motor to the good week came on Monday when the company announced in its (8) "Mexican
exploration update" NR (9) good things about its greenfield El Barqueño project in Jalisco State
Mexico, as well as potential to bump up reserves/resources at its Creston Mascota and La India
operations.
(Sidebar: Is it that difficult to use the Ñ instead of an N when talking about El
Barqueño, people? They are different letters of the Spanish alphabet, like D
and P are different in English, they're different sounds when you say them)
But it's the El Barqueño news that got people purring. Basically the main reason AEM bought
out Cayden Resources this time last year, in the subsequent depressive downturn El Barqueño
has to date been largely ignored as an asset by the market and in just about every analysis (I
freely admit mine too) gets priced at zero. Not any more.
AEM has 10 (yup ten, those rig operators must be happy to have found a job) and they've
already sunk 35,000 metres of holes, with another 32k planned for the rest of the year. AEM is
obviously aggressive with the exploration here and initial results have underscored the reasons
why they paid (a ticket price C$205m but mostly paper) for Cayden last year. AEM now expects
an initial resource in February 2016 and the similarities between this project and its La India
operation (acquired via the Grayd buyout) are clear. AEM has a winning formula in Mexico and
wants to repeat it at El Barqueño.
Strictly speaking, I think AEM got too much of a lift from its news last week and won't climb
much further only on this. If we consider the change in market cap at the company last week
compared to peers, it added something around C$400m to its value and that would mean "The
Cayden Assets" are suddenly being valued at double their purchase price of this time last year,
which doesn't even take into account the market weakness we've seen since then. In the other
hand AEM is the Blue-Eyed-Boy of the mining world right now, loved for its low cash cost and
strong balance sheet position, so that might allow enough love as well.
To round off, one potential negative for next week in this stock: As 50% owner of the Canadian
Malartic mine, it might come under pressure from an environmental report due out tomorrow
Monday that's expected to slam the mine for its pollution record and damage caused to the
local environment. And as for a personal opinion, unlike BVN I think AEM looks particularly
expensive at the moment, it's an easy avoid. I'll pick Goldcorp at these prices anytime.
16

Regional politics
Regional Review next week
IKN334 next weekend will feature the regular and popular (hey, call me rash but I assume from
those the feedback it always gets) Regional Risk review for LatAm countries with a focus on the
mining industry, as always. Same drill as the other editions.
Colombia: Peace breaking out (again)?
We rarely do many photos here at The IKN Weekly (differing form the blog of course) but this
one gets a feature today because it’s one helluva image:
The venue was Cuba at the negotiation table, the date was last Wednesday and to the left,
President Juan Manuel Santos, in the middle a smiling Raul Castro (he looks happy with new
BFFs like the Pope, Obama, Putin and these two on his revamped Revolutionary Christmas card
list) and to the right and less commonly seen in dilpomacy photocals, Rodrigo Londoño, aka
‘Timochenko’ and the current head man of the FARC-EP terrorists in Colombia. And if you think
the plain white (peace) open neck shirts all round are mere coincidence that bridge of mine is
still for sale, this is very careful diplomacy and image-marketing at work. A few doves fluttering
around the meeting room wouldn’t have been out of place.
As for the big the breakthrough in negotiations, in 100 words what we have is a framework deal
between the two sides that will allow the government to investigate and punish FARC members
for human rights abuses, as well as offering compensation to victims of abuses. It’s been the
big sticking point in the negotiations for months and for much of 2015 threatened to derail the
whole process, but now frustration has turned to new hope that a lasting deal is possible and
FARC high command are now talking about disarmament and a formal end to hostilities within
six months. For more than that I direct you to Google, just plug in “Colombia FARC” and have
fun with a couple of thousand reports available from last week but starting with this Reuters
report filed on the day (10) will give you a fair start.
The news is the biggest thing out of South America this week (perhaps this year), one of the
few times the region gets to the world news stage and deservedly so. As recently mentioned on
these pages in a different context, jaw jaw is better than war war. But our focus at The IKN
Weekly is on mining so it’s time to zero in on our subject matter.
I received a mail from reader "H" on Thursday on the subject. Here's what he wrote:
If peace threatens to break out in Colombia in six months’ time (per Dave
17

Forrest info) could selected Colombia mining companies then become a
possible ‘radar’ entry?
In the words of Jon Stewart, two things here. In fact three.
1) I read very few "other analysts". I did read Dave Forrest for a while but stopped maybe two
years ago (can't remember exactly) because I found it a bit of a waste of time, but aside my
own opinion of his Pierce Points thing he's hardly unbiased on the subject of hinterland
Colombia. As well as his forgettable foray into Sunward, he's also heavily invested (both
financially and timewise) in a PGM group exploration project quoted on the Australian market in
one of the politically very risky areas of the country where the FARC either have control
permanently or periodically as the fight for territorial control has waxed and waned over the
years. In short, he's talking his book.
2) I am indeed hopeful that Santos/FARC has made the type of important breakthrough that
will now lead to a real and lasting peace. I think it will be the best thing that's happened to the
region in many, many years and I couldn't wish for a happy ending on the negotiations more
fervently. However, we've seen time and time again that the FARC are not to be trusted and
they've reneged on their word more times than I care to remember (one of the few points with
which I wholly concur with the position of ex-President Álvaro Uribe). To put it bluntly, these
people are not "freedom fighters", they're terrorists, narcotraffickers, liars and all the political
ideology in the world can't cover that fact the upper echelons of the organization are self-
serving scum*. A framework for a deal is better than nothing for sure, but it's still not a deal
and only a fool will consider this week's developments as a fait accompli for peace.
3) Today's problems with Colombia's mining industry, specifically that of the Canadian quoted
junior exploreco miners we look to as potential investments, are not usually caused by the
FARC or other terrorist groups (ELN, far-right paramilitary, "bacrim", whatever). We've seen
plenty of juniors in Colombia trying to work in "safe" regions that have fallen more foul of the
country's seemingly interminable bureaucracy and/or the environmental anti-mining lobby than
anything stopped by terrorist no-go areas. What Colombia needs more than anything else is a
few success stories for formal mining, a story or three that gets a project from exploration
stage through to production using foreign capital and with luck, under the auspices of a
Canadian listed junior miner that provides a return for those who bought the company's shares.
That's all, simple as that. Yes we have Red Eagle (RD.v) now fully funded and constructing at
San Ramon which is good news indeed, but that's just one case, it's a small operation, it's on
the site of an old mine that has made it relatively easy to permit, it has overwhelming local
support. But apart from that? Seen what Continental Gold's done recently? Any news from
Ventana Gold/AUX? Eco Oro in the Paramo de Santurban? AngloGold Ashanti at La Colosa? The
only people who've made money from Colombia's exploration mining scene are people like the
Bullet Group who were smart enough to sell packages of land to juniors at the right time.
And let's be clear here, the vast majority of failures have been in areas untouched by FARC
activity in recent years, so whether peace breaks out or not, apart from the general country
feel-good factor (which will wear off, they always do) a peace agreement in Cuba will be
immaterial to their collective fate. Until a few real success stories happen in the politically safe
zones of Colombia, nobody in their right mind is going to bet serious money on the sketchy
zones for their next mining project.
The bottom line: The breakthrough in talks last week between the government of Colombia and
the FARC-EP terrorists is excellent news, the chances of a lasting settlement have risen sharply,
I sincerely hope a deal gets done. You shouldn't make any bets on miners on the back of this
deal because the biggest problems facing junior explorecos in Colombia have little or nothing to
do with the FARC.
*Perhaps they are suited to the mining industry after all
18

Perumin things
The organizers of last week's five day Perumin conference put on a brave face and were quick
to highlight the stats that suited them best, such as the boast (11) that 100,000 people
attended the event (you get there by counting the same people going through the turnstiles
each day for five days, exhibitors and organizers and police and everyone, plus the "open to
everyone for free last half day on the Friday") but the event was not immune to the general
despondency in the sector, which included the way in which attendees at the inaugural cocktail
party were served pisco in plastic cups (instead of the usual opulence of whiskies and fine
imported drinks served in cut glass). Austerity was the message put forward by head of the
organization committee Roque Benavides (Buenaventura BVN), and everybody got it quickly.
So yes, there were nearly the same amount of corporate entities attending (612 from 50
countries and over 1,400 booths), but the rubber hits the road when the number of
financial/investment/market people are counted. In 2011, this bi-annual event attracted 10,000
of them, and the last edition in 2013, it was nearly 12,000. This year, 4,000 people registered
and paid the entrance fee (though it must be said, there were plenty of people like me who get
offered freebie badges from companies attending). In all, you saw plenty of people milling
around but when push came to shove, not much business done. And the mood, sombre.
As for news and events, a lot of Tia Maria was afforded and most of it sucked up to the pro-
mining position (oh wow what a surprise). Peru's mining minister Rosa Maria Ortíz told us (12)
that the government was making an effort so that the project could get underway next year
before the change in government (believe that believe anything), but also noted that there's a
appeal against the awarding of the construction permit and that until that's sorted out, the
government can't grant that key piece of paper ("it's not our fault you see").
Meanwhile, Southern Peru head honcho Óscar González Rocha told the world that local Tambo
Valley opposition to the project was fading and they hoped to have their social licence from
locals by the end of the year, which is of course another "believe that believe anything"
moment but the press corps don't get invited for free drinks if they don't behave, so that is now
the accepted truth in Peru.
But it wasn't all Tia Maria and it wasn't all negative, because at least a few mining concerns put
on their best faces and brought news and updates on a range projects and corporative matters
that made decent sound bites for our thirsty press people. Examples include the San Gabriel
(Chucapaca) news from Buenaventura (BVN) as seen above, also that the massive Chinese
capital (MMG et al) Las Bambas copper project 95% complete (13) and will start commisioning
in 1q16, then the Cerro Verde expansion project is 96% complete (though will apparently need
a final cash call from its JV partners, if the strong rumours are to be believed) and big zinc
player Volcan announcing a share buyback program (which is nice, though one wonders what
money they'll use to buy back the shares). But overall, the mood was subdued to the point of
depression.
Another interesting announcement at Perumin that deserves a separate paragraph came from
Milpo, the Peruvian mining company now 60% owned by Brazil's Votorantim and run in Peru by
Victor Gobitz (ex- Rio Alto COO). Milpo announced (14) that their interest in taking over the
Michiquillay copper project (bought by Anglo American but then handed back to the State last
year because of 1) ongoing community issues and 2) Anglo's own internal financial problems)
has been given a favourable reply from the Ministry of Energy and Mining (MEM) and is now
considered as a formal offer, which means it's well on the way to getting its prize. Gobitz gave
a nice quote at Perumin on the deal, saying, "We know the current difficulties in the mining
sector, but we believe Michiquillay is a very important asset that merits (all) the headaches (it
will bring". As Gobitz is one of the good guys of mining, IKN wishes him the very best of luck on
this project. He'll need it.
And the wonderful thing about Perumin is that even bad news for the sector gets spun to within
an inch of its own demise and presented by the lapdog press as a positive. Mentioned briefly
19

above in 'The Copper Basket', Wood Mackenzie's presentation at Perumin was about its forecast
for the price of copper and the main point wasn't that they expect copper prices to stay in the
dumpster for the next five years, oh no! It was in the words of Richard Wilson (15), head of
metals at WoodMac, that copper prices will see substantial increases between 2020 and 2025
due to a supply crimp as not enough new projects come on line. He went on to say
(translated):
"This is good news for Peru, as its copper production is in the position to
contribute in the covering of the next deficit in supply."
You see? Crap prices for the next five years is good, not bad.
Burkina Faso after the damp squib coup
Reader NR kindly sent along the link to this analysis (16) of the current situation in Burkina
Faso, home to the True Gold (TGM.v) project as well as plenty of others owned by other
Canadian mining companies. It's entitled "After the coup in Burkina Faso: unity, justice, and
dismantling the Compaoré system" and it's written by Brian Peterson, who's Associate Professor
of History at Union College New York and a specialist on francophone West African history.
You couldn't ask for a better "Burkina National Politics 101" article, the type of thing I lap up
because it's well-written by a field expert for the lay audience and covers all the angles
necessary. It's tempting to paste the whole piece here (it's long) but that wouldn't really be fair,
so here's the opening passage to give you the general overview
After a spectacular series of events − which involved an overthrow, an uprising and an
apology in little more than a week − Burkina Faso finds itself back on its transitional
track.
On 16 September, the elite Presidential Guard (RSP) seized power under the
leadership of Colonel Gilbert Diendéré, a close ally of former president Blaise
Compaoré. Compaoré’s 27 years in office had come to an abrupt halt just 11 months
earlier amidst a popular uprising in October 2014, and there were concerns that the
RSP’s coup had essentially reversed Burkina Faso’s revolution.
However, Burkinabé demonstrators took to the streets in huge numbers once again,
and with the army marching on the capital Ouagadougou vowing to disarm the RSP,
the coup leaders eventually backed down. Diendéré promised to hand back power to
civilian rule and apologised for the coup.
These latest events demonstrate the ongoing determination of Burkinabé civil society
and its ability to mobilise. But despite its strength and victories this past year, a survey
of Burkina Faso’s political landscape going forwards, including in and around the
upcoming elections, suggests that huge challenges for those demanding change lie
ahead.
It then goes into detail about the political balance of power in the country and how the
upcoming election to decide the next President is shaping. Highly recommended, anyone
interested in the state of play in Burkina Faso should consider it a must-read. Sincere thanks to
NR for the heads up.
Guatemala: Jimmy Morales well ahead in second round polls
We've seen the first batch of voter intention polls arrive in Guatemala for the secoond round
run-off between "establishment" Sandra Torres and "outsider" Jimmy Morales and they're all
predicting a comfortable win for Morales on October 25th, with some polls pointing to a margin
of victory of as much as an eye-popping 72/28 in his favour (17). But even if it doesn't turn out
to be that much, the people of Guatemala are now expected to vote for a real change at the
top (even if the party behind Morales has some dubious characters lurking in the background).
On the other hand, it's going to be interesting to see what Sandra Torres tries in order to bridge
that significant gap and the betting is that she's about to go very negative on her opponent.
20

Market Watching
HudBay (HBM) chutzpah and South American press naïveté
On June 4th this year DH, who is one of the nice people in capital markets up in Canada and
regularly converses with me, asked this question. "If you were going to short one copper
producer who would it be?" As usual I kind of fluffed the "if one" part and put forward a couple
of ideas this way:
Gosh, good question. I'd look to the balance sheet and a heavy debt load.
Therefore off the cuff i'd narrow it down to HudBay, First Quantum, Capstone.
and on the subject of HBM in particular, later in the exchange I wrote this:
"... if copper really spikes down HBM will have obvious cash flow troubles and
it's a short strictly on Cu price action (if you see it lower)".
In the end and and asked for "just one" again i plumped for CS.to as my best short candidate in
the copper producer space and that's worked out as a decent call (see above)(, but HBM has
felt almost as much pain as its smaller rival, with the drop from $9+ to today's $4 and bits more
than enough evidence.
Which brings us to this week's HBM news and what HBM CEO Garofalo said in his speech to
Perumin on Thursday. He decided on the upbeat message (not having much else to say I
suppose) and told the assembled audience that HBM was looking to purchase juniors and
projects in Peru or Chile "now that Constancia was at commercial production". No matter that
they can't ship out the conc they're producing sue to a big transport bottleneck problem, or no
matter that the deterioration in the balance sheet over the last six months (current assets
minus inventory doesn't cover current liabilities) would have shareholder up in arms about the
discretionary purchase of another disaster junior (HBM's foray into Panoro still raises chuckles
this end of the world), Garofalo told 'em what they wanted to hear, all thrusting executive style.
And the best thing is that if you read the Perumin coverage from Peru (18) or from Chilean
media (19) the assembled hacks fell for the spiel, hook line and sinker.
21

Because we knew nobody bothers with financials these days, but you would have thought the
journalists would have at least bothered to take a glimpse at the HBM share price performance
and wonder just why it's a stock at multi-year lows-
HudBay (HBM): Pre-tax profit, per qtr
CAD$
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
3q13 4q13 1q14 2q14 3q14 4q14 1q15 2q15
source: company filings
Another bottom signal
I'm now getting idiots mailing me, telling me to look at Metanor (MTO.v) because "it's going to
triple". When the dumbo buy-anything brigade shows up, you know the promo pump artists are
finally getting some traction. By the way, this also explains the move made by First Mining
Finance (FF.v) last week.
Conclusion
IKN333 is done, we end with bullet points:
22

• I'm going to look at Buenaventura (BVN) again, it has "cheap" written all over it now.
• The new trade in Timmins Gold (TMM.to) (TGD) has started well. As long as gold
behaves, I expect it will break back over 30c this week.
• The whole Minera IRL story has moved into litigation and due to that, there's now real
light at the end of the tunnel and a pathway to resolution is now clear. Be clear, Team
Hodges will lose, Team Benavides will win and this mine will be built in a way that
benefits all stakeholders, not just a greedy handful of Toronto scumbags.
• IKN's bullish attitude towards the gold miners and gold in the last few weeks, additions
to positions new trades and all, is beginning to pay off. As 3q15 winds down, we should
expect better things from the last quarter of the year from the sector and inside that,
my idea of the biggest share price sleeper of them all, B2Gold.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Otto
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) http://incakolanews.blogspot.pe/2015/09/minera-irl-mirll-irlto-today-and-sunday.html
(2) http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/110991/minera-irl-suspends-shares-and-dismisses-former-
interim-ceo-110991.html
(3) https://redaccion.lamula.pe/2015/06/21/fondo-buitre-provoco-dano-al-peru-por-50-millones-de-dolares-en-gobierno-
de-fujimori/ecabral/
(4)
http://www4.congreso.gob.pe/historico/ciccor/anexos/CASO%20ELLIOT%20ASSOCIATES%20LLP%20TOMO%20I.pdf
(5) http://www.terangagold.com/files/doc_presentations/2015/09-22-15-Teranga-Gold-DGF-Presentation-(Sept-21)-
Final.pdf
(6) http://incakolanews.blogspot.pe/2015/09/fp-how-smaller-canadian-gold-miners-are.html
(7) http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/25/us-copper-prices-idUSKCN0RP2AF20150925
(8) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/panoro-reports-updated-preliminary-economic-171749283.html
(9) http://ir.agnicoeagle.com/English/investor-relations/news-releases/news-release-details/2015/Agnico-Eagle-
provides-Mexican-exploration-update---El-Barqueno-mineralized-zones-continue-to-expand---Potential-for-reserve-and-
resource-additions-at-Creston-Mascota-and-La-India/default.aspx
(10) http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/24/us-colombia-rebels-idUSKCN0RN1HB20150924
(11) http://www.aminera.com/index.php/mineria-internacional/item/13732-perumin-congreg%C3%B3-a-100-mil-
visitantes-y-dejar%C3%A1-s--5-millones-a-unsa.html
(12) https://poder.pe/2015/09/24/00289-rosa-maria-ortiz-esperamos-que-tia-maria-salga-en-este-gobierno/
(13) http://semanaeconomica.com/article/extractivos/mineria/169950-proyecto-las-bambas-esta-casi-listo-avance-
supera-el-95/
(14) https://poder.pe/2015/09/24/00288-mem-admitio-propuesta-de-milpo-por-michiquillay/
(15) https://poder.pe/2015/09/24/00286-wood-mackenzie-el-precio-del-cobre-tendra-incrementos-sustanciales-entre-el-
2020-y-el-2025/
23

(16) http://africanarguments.org/2015/09/25/after-the-coup-in-burkina-faso-unity-justice-and-dismantling-the-compaore-
system/
(17) http://elperiodico.com.gt/2015/09/23/opinion/intencion-de-voto-para-segunda-vuelta/
(18) http://gestion.pe/empresas/minera-canadiense-hudbay-busca-invertir-proyectos-peru-y-chile-2143844
(19) http://www.aminera.com/index.php/component/k2/item/13717-minera-canadiense-hudbay-revela-inter%C3%A9s-
de-invertir-en-chile.html
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2014
Closed in 2014 closed close price
Fortuna Silver FVI.to jan'14 C$2.80 23-dic-13 C$3.19 13.9% small ST trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to jan'14 C$2.06 07-jun-13 C$2.30 11.7% trading position finally closed
Network Expl. NET.v feb'14 C$0.01 22-jul-12 C$0.005 -50.0% position closed, did nothing
Tahoe Resources TAHO feb'14 U$13.10 08-abr-13 U$21.72 -65.8% short closed due to reality
Darwin Res DAR.v mar'14 C$0.10 14-jul-12 C$0.045 -55.0% tiny risk play dropped
B2Gold BTO.to mar'14 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.35 9.1% closed to free up capital
Pretium Res PVG mar'14 U$5.38 22-nov-13 U$6.50 -20.8% short closed as port longer
Gold Res Corp GORO may'14 U$5.07 26-ene-14 U$4.12 16.7% took profit
Bear Creek Min BCM.v may'14 C$1.63 23-mar-14 C$2.05 25.8% Took profit, sm near-term win
Eco Oro Min. EOM.to aug'14 C$0.48 22-sep-13 C$0.26 -45.8% sold small loser to make room
True Gold TGM.v sep'14 C$0.395 02-feb-14 C$0.41 3.8% M&A won't happen, sold
Santacruz Silver SCZ.v sep'14 C$1.04 26-ene-14 C$0.86 -17.3% silver/M&A spec, rel. small
Timmins Gold TGD nov'14 U$1.38 09-abr-14 U$0.99 -28.3% failed trade, sell, raise cash
Kinross Gold KGC nov'14 U$2.90 20-oct-14 U$2.15 -25.9% V small trade, didn't work, chau
Salazar Res SRL.v hold C$0.28 02-mar-14 C$0.145 -48.2% lost China sponsor
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2013
Closed in 2013 closed close price
USA Graphite USGT feb'13 U$0.93 08-ene-13 U$0.17 81.7% short tgt made/trade closed
Lachlan Star LSA.to feb'13 C$1.50 30-sep-12 C$0.95 -36.7% sold to reduce port risk
United Silver USC.to mar'13 C$0.21 28-oct-12 C$0.095 -54.8% small Ag sector trade, failed
Aurcana Corp AUN.v apr'13 C$1.07 11-nov-12 C$0.55 -48.6% closed on poor YE results
Gold Res Corp GORO apr'13 U$14.11 25-ene-13 U$9.38 33.5% short tgt made/trade closed
Marlin Gold MLN.v apr'13 C$0.075 10-feb-13 C$0.065 -13.3% closed trade
Bear Creek BCM.v may'13 C$2.58 01-abr-13 C$2.40 -7.0% near-term, time ran out
Lupaka Gold LPK.to may'13 C$1.12 23-oct-11 C$0.32 -71.4% towel thrown in
Tahoe Resources TAHO may'13 U$18.62 08-abr-13 U$14.70 21.1% took profit on ST short
OceanaGold OGC.to jun'13 C$3.03 16-sep-12 C$1.18 -61.1% sold on gold drop
IMPACT Silver IPT.v jun'13 C$1.14 13-ene-13 C$0.62 -45.6% sold on silver drop
Duran Ventures DRV.v jun'13 C$0.045 10-may-13 C$0.025 -44.4% ST trade never worked
Plata Latina PLA.v jun'13 C$0.79 10-abr-12 C$0.13 -83.5% closed
Bellhaven BHV.v jun'13 C$0.065 03-jun-13 C$0.12 84.6% closed ST trade
B2Gold BTO.to aug'13 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.44 12.1% sold 1/2 to raise cash
Colossus Min. CSI.to aug'13 C$0.72 24-jul-13 C$0.79 9.7% closed thru nerves on future
Pretium Res PVG.to aug'13 C$8.20 11-jun-13 C$10.14 23.7% closed to raise cash
Bear Creek BCM.v sep'13 C$2.06 30-may-13 C$2.20 6.8% sold on pol risk decision
MAG Silver MVG oct'13 U$7.00 12-sep-13 U$5.62 19.6% near-term short
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'13 U$9.52 03-may-13 U$4.98 47.7% short tgt made, covered
AQM Copper AQM.v oct'13 C$0.31 16-oct-11 C$0.125 -59.7% closed failed trade
First Majestic AG nov'13 U$11.51 07-nov-13 U$10.50 8.8% v near term short, closed
Fortuna Silver FSM nov'13 U$4.00 07-nov-13 U$3.68 8.0% v near term short, closed
Primero PPP nov'13 U$5.70 07-nov-13 U$5.75 -0.9% v near term short, closed
Starcore Intl SAM.to nov'13 C$0.235 08-sep-13 C$0.17 -27.7% ST trade didn't work, sm loss
B2Gold BTO.to dec'13 C$2.22 28-nov-12 C$2.16 -2.7% closed ST trade to raise cash
24

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2012
Closed in 2012 closed close PPS
Soltoro SOL.v jan'12 C$0.87 07-nov-11 C$0.94 8.0% cash moved to BCM.v
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to feb'12 C$0.84 13-oct-10 C$0.98 16.7% trade closed on ELG.v offer
Minefinders MFN feb'12 U$11.68 17-nov-11 U$14.80 26.7% target made, trade closed
Iron Creek IRN.v mar'12 C$0.58 26-sep-10 C$0.31 -46.6% time up on small bad trade
U.S. Silver USA.to apr'12 C$2.18 15-mar-12 C$1.86 -14.7% ST trade no good, cut loss
Augusta Res. AZC.to may'12 C$3.10 29-jan-12 C$2.07 -33.2% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Bellhaven BHV.v may'12 C$0.50 22-sep-10 C$0.28 -44.0% new mgmt not impressive
Zincore Metals ZNC.to may'12 C$0.325 29-jul-11 C$0.17 -47.7% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Soltoro SOL.v may'12 C$0.70 18-mar-11 C$0.41 -41.4% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
U.S. Silver USA.to aug'12 C$1.78 27-jul-12 C$1.36 -23.6% fail ST trade close pre split
Estrella Gold EST.v aug'12 C$0.91 27-mar-11 C$0.14 -84.6% Closed on port realignment
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'12 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.32 397.2% sell call $6.17/ Mar25
Strait Minerals SRD.v oct'12 C$0.125 09-dec-11 C$0.12 -4.0% closing coverage til FY13
Sunward Res SWD.to oct'12 C$1.47 13-mar-11 C$1.21 -17.7% sold, took loss
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'12 U$21.47 09-sep-12 U$17.40 19.0% Short trade closed
Yellowhead Min. YMI.to nov'12 C$1.00 01-apr-12 C$0.63 -37.0% sold, took loss
Primero Mining PPP nov'12 U$7.26 07-oct-12 U$6.73 7.3% Short trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v nov'12 C$3.38 07-nov-11 C$3.72 10.1% Took small profit
Vena Resources VEM.to dec'12 C$0.70 31-may-09 C$0.18 -74.3% Failed trade (caps F)
Galway Res GWY.v dec'12 C$2.19 24-nov-12 C$2.30 5.0% closed good ST arb trade
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2011
Closed in 2011 closed close PPS
Sunward Res SWD.v jan'11 C$1.05 21-nov-10 C$1.63 55.2% target made, trade closed
Serengeti Res SIR.v mar'11 C$0.245 05-dec-10 C$0.285 16.3% sold pre-tgt, ST trade fail
Fronteer Gold FRG apr'11 U$2.37 03-may-09 U$15.24 543.0% buyout, trade closed
Minefinders MFN apr'11 U$9.09 07-nov-10 U$16.89 85.8% target made, trade closed
Metalline Min. MMG may'11 U$1.04 26-jan-11 U$0.89 -14.4% exit, resource disappointed
Peregrine Met PGM.to jul'11 C$0.87 06-mar-11 C$2.60 198.9% buyout offer, closed
Dynasty Metals DMM.to jul'11 C$4.20 03-may-09 C$2.85 -32.1% Sold. Fail. Move on.
Aura Silver AUU.v aug'11 C$0.22 13-oct-10 C$0.16 -36.4% Bad pick. Take loss
U.S. Silver USA.v aug'11 C$0.52 26-jan-11 C$0.71 36.5% closed to make room
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'11 C$2.80 12-may-11 C$4.27 52.5% target made, trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v sep'11 C$3.80 27-may-11 C$4.17 9.7% macro sell call victim
Minefinders MFN sep'11 U$14.70 10-aug-11 U$15.15 3.1% macro sell call victim
Great Panther GPR.to sep'11 C$3.03 22-aug-11 C$2.64 -12.9% macro sell call victim
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'11 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.36 400.9% sold 20%, macro sell call
Focus Ventures FCV.v nov'11 C$0.40 20-apr-10 C$0.20 -50.0% cut losses, bad trade
Regulus Res. REG.v dec'11 C$1.17 14-aug-11 C$0.52 -55.6% cut on news of poor 43-101
2009 and 2010 closed positions in appendices below
25

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2010
Closed in 2010 closed close PPS
B2Gold Corp BTO.to Jan'10 C$0.88 08-nov-09 C$1.49 68.2% target made, trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v Jan'10 C$0.18 23-aug-09 C$0.40 122.2% target made, trade closed
MAG Silver MVG mar'10 U$5.60 23-nov-09 U$7.28 30.0% closed in pdac week
Riverside Res RRI.v mar'10 C$0.435 20-sep-09 C$0.60 37.9% closed in pdac week
Amarillo Gold AGC.v mar'10 C$0.81 31-may-09 C$0.70 -13.6% closed in pdac week
B2Gold Corp BTO.to apr'10 C$1.24 18-feb-10 C$1.50 21.0% target made, trade closed
Lumina Copper LCC.v apr'10 C$0.84 14-jun-09 C$1.55 51.2% total position now sold
Troy Resources TRY.to may'10 C$1.10 03-may-09 C$2.25 104.5% sold on negative results
AuEx Ventures XAU.to may'10 C$2.51 24-may-09 C$3.38 34.7% trade closed
Nevada Copper NCU.to jun'10 C$3.27 14-mar-10 C$2.03 -37.9% need to lower Cu exposure
Carpathian Gold CPN.to jun'10 C$0.39 14-mar-10 C$0.35 -10.3% too exposed to cap raising
Amerix PM Corp APM.v jun'10 C$0.065 08-nov-09 C$0.05 -23.1% victim of macro bear
Antares Minerals ANM.v jun'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$2.10 47.9% sold half
Vena Resources VEM.to jun'10 C$0.37 31-may-09 C$0.23 -37.8% sold half
Minera Andes MAI.to sep'10 C$0.75 28-jul-10 C$0.95 26.7% ST trade closed
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to sep'10 C$0.52 01-aug-10 C$0.75 44.2% target made, trade closed
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'10 C$1.45 25-may-10 C$2.01 34.5% target made, trade closed
Blue Sky Uran BSK.v oct'10 C$0.41 19-may-10 C$0.22 -46.3% v small v bad trade closed
Dia Bras Expl DIB.v oct'10 C$0.14 30-aug-09 C$0.35 150.0% target made, trade closed
S. Amer. Silver SAC.to nov'10 C$1.38 24-oct-10 C$1.60 -15.9% loss on short, small fail
Ventana Gold VEN.to nov'10 C$7.92 27-jun-10 C$13.51 70.6% trade closed on buyout
Lumina Copper LCC.v nov'10 C$1.42 11-aug-10 C$3.65 157.0% trade closed
Antares Minerals ANM.v dec'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$8.40 491.5% trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.v dec'10 C$0.69 23-mar-10 C$2.16 213.0% trade closed
Coro Mining COP.to dec'10 C$0.585 03-oct-10 C$1.24 112.0% target made, trade closed
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2009
Closed positions closed closing PPS
Cardero Res CDY/CDU.to May'09 U$1.20 03-May-09 U$0.87 -27.5% sold on negative news
Eastmain Res. ER.to May'09 C$1.04 06-May-09 C$1.315 26.4% trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v May'09 C$0.165 03-May-09 C$0.235 42.4% trade closed
Latin Amer Min. LAT.v May'09 C$0.12 03-May-09 C$0.158 29.2% trade closed
Aquiline Res. AQI.to July'09 C$2.03 16-Jun-09 C$1.68 -17.2% took loss, bad timing
Chariot Resources CHD.to Aug'09 C$0.20 12-Jul-09 C$0.415 107.5% trade closed
Castle Gold CSG.v Sep'09 C$0.64 02-Aug-09 C$0.60 -6.3% ST trade didn't work out
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to Sep'09 C$2.30 12-May-09 C$4.50 95.7% profit taken
Los Andes Copper LA.v Sep'09 C$0.09 21-Jun-09 C$0.09 0% trade closed
Pediment Gold PEZ.to Oct'09 C$0.80 09-Aug-09 C$1.00 25.0% trade closed
Minera Andes MAI.to Oct'09 C$0.68 03-May-09 C$0.71 4.4% too much bad news
Dynasty Metals DMM.to Nov'09 C$4.18 03-May-09 C$6.01 43.8% half sold
Rusoro Mining RML.v Nov'09 C$0.55 03-May-09 C$0.57 3.6% underperformed
Important Disclosure
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