IKN #312Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 312, May 3rd 2015
Contents
This Week: Macro events this week, Bifurcation: The good news and the bad news and the
good news, And then there's the forex.
Fundamental Analysis: The 1q15 financials from Lake Shore Gold (LSG.to) (LSG) and
Teranga (TGZ.to) (TGZ.ax).
Stocks to Follow: Overview, Atacama Pacific (ATM.v), Timmins Gold (TMM.to) (TGD),
Dalradian Resources (DNA.to), McEwen Mining (MUX) (MUX.to), B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to), First
Majestic (AG) (FR.to), NovaCopper (NCQ.to), Starcore Intl (SAM.to), Focus Ventures (FCV.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to),
AQM Copper (AQM.v).
Low Cost Producer Basket: Overview, Goldcorp (GG), Franco-Nevada (FNV), (NEM),
Buenaventura (BVN).
Regional Politics: Do your risk DD at a local level, Guatemala: It's an election year all right,
Chile quickly recovering from the Northern floods, Peru Tia Maria, Colombia: Santurban anti-
mining groups haven't stopped the protests, Mexico: Nice map, Argentina: Latest polls point to
Scioli again.
Market Watching: The Coastal Gold (COD.v) merger gets competition PLUS STOP PRESS,
GoldQuest (GQC.v) releases its PEA, Thinking about Atico Mining (ATY.v).
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Macro events this week
There are three potentially interesting world macro economic events next week, all of which
pointing to potential effects on Friday.
1) The UK General Election which happens on Thursday May 7th but the effects of the
results will only start filtering through on Friday morning. The normal case is a Conservative win
is good for the British Pound (GBP) and a Labour win the opposite effect, with similar pressures
on the London Stock Exchange indices (though you may need to be careful what you wish for
this time around, plus there's a much narrower ideological gap between the ostensible right and
left in the mian UK parties these days). This isn't the place for a full primer, but be clear that as
The UK is not about the absolute number of votes cast and more about who wins each
constituency battle, the important thing is the number of seats won in parliament, with the
magic majority number 325 (650 seats, house speaker gets casting vote). Also be clear that the
result could be heading towards a type of stalement nightmare scenario which returns no
winner, nor a logic coalition which would allow either David Cameron (Conservative and current
PM) or Ed Miliband (Labour leader) to form a workable parliament.
2) The China trade balance figures out overnight Thursday, which macro-watchers are
apparently going to pore over more closely than normal for signs of Chinese economic
slowdown. This is definitely not my forte as a subject, so consider this line or three as a simple
1

headsup on a potential market mover in the days to come and go read up from better informed
sources if you desire.
3) The US BLS jobs report for April that's out pre-open Friday, which currently has cmarket
consensus on the headline numbers of +220,000 non-farm payroll jobs and the unemployment
rate to click down a notch to 5.4%. Those numbers tend to be adjusted as the week moves on
so as usual, Calculated Risk (1) is the strong reco for updated views during the week. After the
soft BLS numbers plus downward revisions seen in March, the market may be a little nervier
than usual going into this set of figures.
All in all, Friday could turn into a turbulent end to the week. Traders among you should keep it
nimble, meanwhile us plodding gold holders will just shrug our shoulders and wonder what all
the fuss is about yet again.
Bifurcation: The good news and the bad news. And the good news
The good news: This type of action in the mining stocks is exactly what we'd want to see from
a sector that's turning itself around.
This is exactly what we'd want to see from a a bifurcating market, the type of action in which
the quality starts to separate itself away from the dross. This type of move is something that
people as experienced and successful in the junior realm as Rick Rule have called for and here's
your example quote from him (2):
"The market is going to start to bifurcate and the bifurcation will be those
companies that can raise enough money to continue to add value and those
companies that can’t."
In that, Rule calls for the top 10% to move away from the 90% of stocks that don't have the
necessary. This makes sense and it's why I've been trying to pull the portfolio around to include
decent and cash flow positive gold miners TGZ, LSG, BTO, MUX* etc.
The bad news: That Rick Rule quote is from February 2013. It's one Rule hasn't been shy about
repeating between then and now, either (stick "rick rule" and "bifurcation" into the Googlebox
and discover at your own leisure). In other words, this splitting away of good from bad has
been a long time coming and that long wait has certainly contributed to our collective pain.
The good news: It may be late, but it's going to happen one of these fine days and from what I
saw last week, the game is on. Rick Rule is hardly alone in timing the rebound badly, misery
has company on that one and I'm absolutely guilty of seeing too much into anything even
vaguely resembling a rebound in 2013 and 2014. OK, and 2015 if you insist (though I will toot
my own horn at this point and say that this year is treating me well so far). Anyway, that's
2

another way of saying that this pet 'Land Grab' idea I have going is starting to show real
results, it's not just hot air, this is not a drill, it's happening and if you want to make money in
the markets you should be getting yours, too.
*The jury's out on MUX, but if it shows what I think it's capable of, it's crazy cheap at today's levels. Pretty promise.
And then there's the forex
For the moment, IKN is going to keep using a CAD$1 = U$0.80 forex conversion in its financial
analyses of Canadian junior stocks where necessary. However, it hasn't escaped your author's
attention that the Loonie stuck in a bit of a rally in April:
This is good for the most reactive part of the buy-low-sell-high equation for stock prices in
Canadian dollars, the bit that values the equity. Time will then tell upon the comparative
advantage of cash costs in US Dollars against other currencies, any rebound in capex costs and
similar matters. The above is more immediate and appeals to the market players' collective
greed glands in a very direct way:
• Canadian stocks cheap in USD terms
• Canadian Dollar goes up
• Stocks get better in USD terms
You don't need a rocket scientist programming a Spoofing Algo for your basement trading
computer to know that the TSX will attract greenbacks from South of its border. And that
means Candian stock prices would play catch-up to those denominated in USD.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Review of the 1q15 financials from Lake Shore Gold (LSG.to) (LSG) and Teranga
Gold (TGZ.to) (TGZ.ax).
On time and in good style, we got the 1q15 financials from several mining companies and two
of our current longs in the gold producer sector, Teranga Gold (TGZ.to) (TGZ.ax) and Lake
Shore Gold (LSG.to) (LSG), we among them. As mentioned on the blog the day of the releases
(3) pre-bell Wednesday, " Both very good". I'm not going to go into deep detail on these today,
the idea is to point to a few of the usual suspect charts, make observations as and when,
explain why I'm good about owning both of these after what we saw in the financials and move
on (another attempt not to be so damned long-winded on you, might even happen one of these
days). So just for the record before we dive in, the need-to-know:
Lake Shore Gold (LSG.to) is the one that looks best to me and with most potential upside. The
more I stare at what it's doing, the more I think Goldcorp will buy it and add it to its kingdom.
3

Teranga Gold (TGZ.to) is in good shape and fully justifies holding or even buying while in the
60s, but looking to the rest of 2015 it's one on which I'll stick to my current target fairly strictly
and if the market offers me 83c for my shares, I'm going to take that, sell and take profits.
Lake Shore Gold (LSG.to): Wednesday April 29th saw the results arrive (4) and here come
some of the usual suspect charts to illustrate what we have from LSG in 1q15. Assets were just
about where I expected them, but cash treasury at $70.72m was $3.6m higher than the
expected, a small plus. The estimate for 2q15 treasury shifts up slightly to $73.5m.
Liabilities look like this (below), they're dropping as expected and LSG made a big fanfare of
noting that in this May month the last gold note payment will be made, thereby making the
company financially debt free. That last payment is around $2.6m and won't break the bank.
LSG.to: liabilities per qtr
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
4
11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 tse51q2
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LSG.to: Cash treasury per qtr
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
LT debt
current debt
As a result of the jump in cash and the drop in
current liabilities, the working capital position
we'd estimated as a slightly conservative
$56m in fact jumped to a wholly impressive
$61.35m. We should see some follow-through
on that in 2q15 and push close to $70m.
Here's the thing with LSG today, it's strong
point; it's a cash collecting machine right now
and as that will continue through 2015.
Anything added here makes a takeover bid (by
GG, by whoever) that much more attractive.
That's one good looking chart right here, it's
the 144 zone development paid for
organically, it's all sorts of things.
11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 tse51q2
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
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snoillim
LSG.to: Assets
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 tse51q2
$m
fixed
other current
cash & eq
source: LSG filings
80 LSG.to: Working Capital per qtr
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 tse51q2
source company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim

Moving to operations, here's the main overview chart:
LSG.to: Quarterly Earnings Overview
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
5
31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 tse51q2
$m
revenues Prod Costs
deplet/deprec gross profit
source: company filings/IKN ests
The big eyecatcher is the $79.124m in revenues, a new company record for a quarter and
something that can hide all sorts of extra
expenses. And in fact costs did come in hotter LSG.to: Gross profits, per qtr
25
than expected at just over $33m, with
depreciation and depletion higher at $22m 20
and bits. But still, gross profit on operations of
$23.345m was a good showing (right): 15
10
Below right is a breakdown of costs (not just
the mining COGS) that shows exploration at 5
over $5m was double your author's guess.
0
That must be all about LSG getting aggressive
at the 144 zone and so I've adjusted my 2q15
call to the same $5m. Overall I'm expecting a
slightly lower production rhythm in 2q15 and
costs to drop slightly to match that.
Net earnings at $12.066m was a headline
catcher, but as LSG has had some strange ins
and outs on tax paid over the previous
quarters, I'll stick with operating earnings as my
preferred straight line gauge. Here that is in
absolute terms and in per-share terms, both
batting strongly in the quarter just gone and
expected to return a profit (though slightly
more modest assuming a flat gold price) in
2q15.
21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 tse51q2
$m
source: company filings, IKN ests
LSG.to: Global costs breakdown
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 tse51q2
$m
Prod Costs deplet/deprec G&A Exploration other
source: company filings, IKN ests
LSG.to: Op. Earnings
26 (with 4q12 and 4q13 imparirments backed out)
22
18
14
10
6
2
-2
-6
-10
21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 tse51q2
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
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snoillim
LSG.to: operating earnings per share
(with 4q12 and 4q13 impairments backed out)
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
º 0.00
-0.01
-0.02
-0.03
21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 tse51q2
cents
source: company financials/IKN ests

Overall, LSG delivered on what we
expected. The good news too was the the
headline buyers perked up when they saw
LSG's results and came for the stock,
much along the lines we'd imagined here.
The next job is to consolidate those gains,
but if gold gives us a break I see my
nominal $1.50 target being taken out
pretty quickly. But this isn't one I'm going
to sell at target, as the more I look the
more it has Goldcorp written all over it.
Right address, profitable operations,
plenty of growth in the pipeline right sized
morsel. It took me time to warm sufficiently to LSG to won the stock but now I'm in, I'm a very
happy camper. It's going higher
Teranga Gold (TGZ.to)
Wednesday April 29th was also the TGZ reporting date (5) and in the same style, here come
usual suspect charts and commentary. This time I'll start with operations and production
numbers, here's the main overview:
TGZ.to: Quarterly Earnings Overview
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
6
41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 tse51q2 tse51q3
$m revenues
COGS
gross profit
source: company filings/IKN ests
We were expecting a big drop from the whopping 4q14 and in the end we saw a drop, but
nowehere near as big as expected. The IKN revenues forecast of $61.3m was blown away by
reported revenues of $68.491m and our costs estimate of $54m was beaten by a long way too,
with COGS in at just $48.155m. That combo made for strong gross profits of just over $20m
and they held together for a net of $17.542m as well.
Reasons for the big differences start with the sales of gold being higher than production:
TGZ: gold produced vs gold sold, per qtr
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1
Oz Au
reported Au prod
Au sold
source: company filings, IKN ests from TGZ guidance

You can see that on the right of this chart, with 48,643 oz produced and 56,223 oz sold. The
difference came from inventory (see the chart further down below) and that's fair enough, but
it's only a one-time shot.
Cash costs came in really nicely. Here's those on a per-ounce basis, total and AISC. The AISC at
$841/oz is well below the company target average for the year of $900 to $950.
TGZ: Total Cash Costs vs All In Sustaining Costs
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
7
21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1
U$/oz Au
tot cash cost
AISC
source: TGZ filings, IKN ests form TGZ guidance
But on further examination, that looks like a bit of balance sheetiness is going on as "capitalized
stipping" shot up, so although costs of ore and waste movement were lower (light grey and red
together) TGZ still moved the same amount of rock as in 4q14. The difference was taken off
the balance sheet and assumed to be the low grading stockpile stuff they plan to process on a
run of mine dump leach basis one day. Seeing is believing on that.
TGZ: Tonnages mined, per qtr
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 tse51q2 tse51q3 tse41q4
source: company filings, IKN ests from TGZ guidance
TM
snoilliM
cap. waste mined
op. waste mined
ore mined
Average mined grade at 1.17 g/t was lower than the 2015 guidance average, as was the mill
head grade of 1.90 g/t (they want to run average of 2.1 g/t this year). This is something that
needs to improve (and may account for all that capitalized stripping in the quarter):
TZG: Mined grade to head grade, per qtr
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 tse51q2 tse51q3 tse41q4
g/t Au
difference
grade mined
source: TGZ filings, IKN ests from TGZ guidance
However recovery grade at 92.6% was a welcome improvement from the typical 90% or
thereabouts. That small percentage tweak adds nearly 1,400 oz to the production pile.

As for earnings, they weren't as strong as 4q14 but they were stronger than expected thanks to
those aforementioned extra gold sales, mainly.
TGZ.to: Net Earnings
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
8
31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 tse51q2 tse51q3
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
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snoillim
Moving to the balance sheet, assets look like this. No worries.
TGZ.to: Assets
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 tse51q2
$m
fixed
other current
cash & eq
source: TGZ filings
Inside that cash treasury remained high, which came as a bit of a surprise
TGZ.to: Cash treasury per qtr
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
...but again, it's about the way inventories were drawn down via extra sales over production:
$m TGZ: Gold inventories bullion in circuit
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
4q12 1q13 2q13 3q13 4q13 1q14 2q14 3q14 4q14 1q15
source: company filings

Liabilties have continued to drop as expected, right in line, and that's a good thing.
TGZ.to: Liabilities per qtr
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
9
11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 tse51q2
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT debt
current debt
What's interesting is to note how quickly trade payables have dropped at TGZ, down to
$9.462m from levels of around $20m in previous quarters. A lot of its current liabilities are now
with the government of Senegal in accounts payable and royalties. With those gone (and they
will drop in 2q15) the balance sheet gets even stronger.
TGZ: Trade and other payables
(i.e. near-term run-of-mine financial liabilities)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1
$m
A/cs payable to Senegal
Govt royalties
sundry creditors
trade payables
source: TGZ filings
Stick it all together and we have a TGZ with further improvement in working capital, now
brushing $40m. This one should creep higher as the year progresses. That's good.
50 TGZ.to: Working Capital per qtr
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1
source company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
During the quarter TGX delivered the outstanding 7,500 oz of gold to FNV as dues for its
stream, so that's back to the normal level again and from here, it'll be 5,625oz quarter.
Overall what I see in TGZ is a company that put its very best foot forward in order to impress in
1q15. That's fine, but it also means that unless gold price improves 2q15 and 3q15 (at least)
will not be anywhere near as good. That shows in the estimates for net earnings in the above
chart (a tad over $5m per quarter) which on 353m shares out is around a penny and a half
quarterly EPS.

Assuming Gora comes online in 4q15 production and profits will rise. But until then it'll be
flattish profits, which brings me to the price target. As things stand today the IKN purchase
made at 55c looks very good and here we are in the high 60s. If TGZ takes off and reaches my
target in the next few months I'll sell my position happily enough because chances are that
corporate results won't sparkle as brightly and the stock can come back (where greedily, I'd buy
it again). If the share price doesn't move higher I'm a happy enough holder. What would
change that is a move in the gold price, as to around $1,250/oz that plan works but if gold goes
over $1,300/oz TGZ,along with most other golds stocks, could move much much higher. In that
case, I'd hold on tight and so do you. With both hands and white knuckles.
Bottom line: Unless gold flies, if I see my 83c target price I'll take profits on TGZ. If not, I'm a
happy holder of TGZ. If I'm still holding come 4q15, it'll be time to revisit the model.
Stocks to Follow
A good period, the first for a while and some pleasant relief to call the portfolio in better shape
this weekend. Of the current 16 open positions four made weekly losses (MUX, LRA.v, FCV.v,
IRL.to) and one remained unchanged (FOS.to) which leaves eleven winners on the week. not
listing them all, but we highlight the biggest gains set by Lake Shore Gold (LSG.to up 12.1%),
Starcore International (SAM.to up 11.1%) and Teranga Gold (TGZ.to up 9.7%). If it weren't for
the laggard MUX, all of our producer stocks would have been winners last week, which is pretty
cool when we consider that gold dropped by % W-o-W.
With the addition of Atacama Pacific (ATM.v) last week we now have 16 open positions in our
Stocks to Follow list, one more than our our self-imposed maximum. It's not the first time we've
breached the max and it won't be a permanent situation (e.g., Timmins Gold won't be hanging
around long). Of our 16, seven are in the green, one is unchanged, eight are in the red.
10

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
Metals Producers (in current order of preference)
McEwen Mining MUX buy U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$0.972 -10.8% Added Mar'15, top value
B2Gold BTO.to buy C$2.32 12-sep-14 C$1.90 -18.1% Dependent on Au price moves
Teranga Gold TGZ.to buy C$0.55 15-feb-15 C$0.68 23.6% New position, 83c tgt
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to buy C$1.04 07-apr-15 C$1.20 15.4% New FCF+ prod. Poss M&A tgt
First Majestic AG hold U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$5.01 52.4% Holding, only silver exp left
Timmins Gold TGD spec buy U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% New, ST spec rebound play
Starcore Intl SAM.to hold C$0.12 10-jan-15 C$0.15 25.0% Also "land grab", tgt 19c
Land Grab Stocks (in current order of preference)
Phoscan Chem FOS.to buy C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.28 0.0% New trade, 36c/share of cash
Atacama Pacific ATM.v spec buy C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.225 18.4% New Spec buy, cheap adv proj
Legend Gold LGN.v spec buy C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.07 -17.6% Spec buy, v small trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to hold C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.70 -33.3% small Cu play low vols, hold
Lara Expl. LRA.v hold C$1.15 08-apr-12 C$0.295 -74.3% solid biz model, LT hold
Other Recommended Stocks (in current order of preference)
Dalradian Res DNA.to buy C$0.64 27-oct-13 C$0.90 40.6% Nov'14 tgt $1.25, top Au expl
Regulus Res REG.v spec buy C$0.30 06-apr-15 C$0.37 23.3% New bet on 2016 drill prog.
Focus Ventures FCV.v hold C$0.23 01-jul-12 C$0.205 -10.9% tgt 50c, now raising cash
Minera IRL IRL.to hold C$0.27 22-jul-12 C$0.08 -70.4% Waiting for financing news
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'14 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'14 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'14 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'14 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 closed positions in appendices below
Now for some notes on current basket stocks, though not so much as it was a pretty quiet
week all told.
Atacama Pacific (ATM.v): Position opened. There were a couple of decent chances to get
some 19c early in the week and that was a good thing, because suddenly some size came for
the stock and 21c was a cheap price. A nice start, nothing set in stone yet and the way in which
Friday came and went without a single trade is indicative of the way in which this stock has a
long road of repair to do yet. But this is a Land Grab play straight and classic, so seeing people
willing toi snap at the ask and buy because they also consider what the company owns to be at
a deep discount is what we want to see.
Timmins Gold (TGD) (TMM.to): We didn't get the quarterly results, they're due next week
on Tuesday May 5th. For the record and to repeat, I'm expecting something around breakeven
for the 1q15 numbers and I'm guessing that's better than many people expect. What we did get
from TMM last week was confirmation that the stupid merger between itself and Newstrike is
going though as expected, with both sets of board voting it up on April 29th. That seems to
have helped the stock and it rallied pretty well and held onto most of the gains.
To underscore and repeat, this position is designed as a near-term trade and won't hang
around in the portfolio long, with two months as absolute limit maximum. The plan is simple:
• I expect TMM to return a 1q15 that's better than the market expects (this publication
thinks it's going to be around breakeven, others seem to have assumed a hefty loss).
11

• Now the NES.v is done, I expect TMM to come out of its quiet period and aggressively
market the company.
• I expect to see TMM move back above 70c and towards 80c and then I expec to sell for a
quick and easy profit.
• Ka-ching, close and goodbye. What could possibly go wrong?
The first part of the critical time window starts this week with the publishing of its 1q15
numbers. This time next weekend I'll have a better idea as to just how stupid this trading plan
of mine really is.
Dalradian Resources (DNA.to): DNA kicked and screamed its way back to the Beaty 90c line
in the sand on lowish volumes without impressing me or anyone else, I though it would pop
with the sector leaders. Not that I'm going to sell out or anything, but I will keep half an eye on
DNA in the week ahead because it should be perkier than this. We're in what's likely to be a
slow news period for the company as it gets on with the development drill program at
Curraghinalt, so maybe it's just that and I'm reading too much into this.
McEwen Mining (MUX):MUX continues to underperform peers and looks trapped at the U$1-
or-abouts range. As the company told us its 1q15 financials would be filed "in early May" and
that's where we are today, it's a fair bet we get the results in the week ahead. As noted
previously, your author's looking for a modest profit from El Gallo I, a likely loss from its 49% of
San José (though you never know with operator HOC.l and its own box of tricks agenda there)
and an overall small loss for the consolidated MUX. Good surprises would be seeing a positive
bottom line, bad surprises would be any more write-downs or a hefty net loss.
B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG): Along with MUX, another that's merely flatlining. BTO reports its
quarter on May 15th so there's still nearly two full trading weeks between us and that event.
First Majestic (AG) (FR.to): The filing on Wednesday (6) that showed that CAD$11.4m of
the recent CAD$30m bought deal was registered to the main book runners BMO shows that the
offer wasn't fully taken and the underwriters are now holding a bag on the stock at CASD$6.50.
That may well cause an overhang on the price, as we pointed out in that same post that FR.to
hasn't seen trading above the CAD$6.50 deal price since the day it was announced. It adds up
to a near-term headwind for FR.to, or perhaps that should say another near-term headwind.
Meanwhile, let's see how the 1q15 financials come out, scheduled as they are for May 7th (7).
We know the production numbers so share price movements will largely be influenced by the
costs lines published
by FR next week. The FR.to: Silver Equivalent production, per qtr
signals on costs in the 4500000
production NR were a 4000000
little difficult to read,
3500000
with hints of extra
3000000
costs in some areas
and hints of cost 2500000
savings in others. 2000000
1500000
The other thing I'll
1000000
watch is the working
500000
cap number, which
was a slight negative 0
at end 4q14 and since
the close of 1q15
we've seen FR.to add
12
11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1
Oz AgEq
La Guitarra AgEq
Del Toro AgEq
San Martin AgEq
La Parrilla AgEq
La Encantada AgEq
source: company filings

CAD$30m to treasury via that damned bought deal. Presumably the 1q15 working cap number
will also be slightly negative, but it's one that will require scrutiny.
NovaCopper (NCQ.to): On Saturday evening I received an unsolicited though pleasant
introduction mail from Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse, President and CEO of NovaCopper. He'd
reached out (always a good sign from any CEO) to give an overview of the NCQ plans with
Sunward in the fold and here's a small segment of the mail:
"With the acquisition of Sunward announced, we are now finalizing plans for
our 2015 program to advance our Ambler projects to feasibility over a 2 to 3
year period – no sense in being in a hurry given the markets."
And that's fair enough. As assumed, SWD's Titiribi project seems to be the one that will go on
the back boiler, NCQ will take it calmly in moving the Ambler projects forward, protect its now
larger treasury and also make further community relations efforts (as previously noted on these
pages, there are pro groups and contra groups to the Ambler project, with plenty of discussion
centred around the road planned to the built through this wilderness region). So on Sunday
morning I sent him back this quick reply:
Hi Rick and thanks for the mail, appreciated.
Just one question at this point: What with the company planning to take less hurried timeline
towards feasibility of Ambler, does this mean NCQ officers will be taking a pay cut in order to
reflect the lower workload?
Best, Mark (aka Otto)
I got a reply from that and suffice to say, I wasn't so impressed. In trading NCQ got used to the
idea of the new acquisition and rebounded a little from the initial and understandable loss of
two weeks ago. With copper rising the way it suddenly is, there's no reason to be anything but
patient for the time being here. I expect NCQ will simply rise or fall with the sector tide, it's not
a place to look for alpha.
Starcore Intl (SAM.to): Pre-open Tuesday SAM came up with a news release that caught me
a little unawares, but in retrospect it was
in the cards (all hail me, the Monday
morning QB). As noted on the blog that
morning (8) it's moving on a third
acquisition the the last year by folding
sister company Cortez Gold (CUT.v, and
by the way 'corte' is 'cut' in Spanish, with
'cortar' the verb) into the mothership
vehicle. Unlike the Creston Moly
acquisition but very similar to the
American Consolidated (ex-AJC) merger of
last year, CUT.v is from the same stable
of companies as SAM.to (9) and has
several directors in common. It's also
been beaten up by the ongoing sector
drag (no surprises there) and up until last
Tuesday morning found itself trading at new low levels in March and April:
And here's a three month chart, which screens out that rather weird spike and drop to $1 seen
in early January.
13

As for CUT.v ops, its main project is the 'Altiplano' processing plant in central Mexico, which is
basically a variant on the intermediary toll milling business plan. This time it's a toll processing
plan that makes its money from concentrates rather than raw rock. The idea is to accept copper
and lead concentrates from small local miners (there are around 20 locally, according to CUT.v)
and offer them better refining and founding terms than they currently get from smelters and/or
traders. Then using the more efficient processing techniques at the CUT.v plant, they get the
gold and silver out (at roughly 90% recovery), thereby benefitting from the margins created
from the precious metals by-products. For more on the business model and the rose-tinted
spectacle version of the economics, check out the latest set of NRs (e.g. this one (10)) and the
April 2015 corporate presentation over at the CUT.v website, but as a business model goes it
looks pretty robust and the real beauty for SAM.to shareholders (i.e me, Eric Sprott and
potentially you) is that the plant is now basically paid for and built.
It's not the first time I've looked at CUT.v, but as noted above it caught me a little unawares
because I hadn't paid attention to the stock recently. By a simple look at the price charts above,
the SAM.to merger looks pretty opportunistic to me at current share price levels and the close
relationship between SAM.to and CUT.v means the deal is very likely to happen as planned.
Here's how I put it to one reader as a reply to a "what you think?" mail received on the news:
I looked at CUT a few months ago (can't remember exactly when) at a point
when it was moving up quite sharply, wondering what the fuss was about. I
came away from the basic DD thinking "yup, that makes sense, let's see if
they can get it open on the cash they have today" and left it at that, with a
mental note to revisit and look carefully if the machine started operating on
time. I kinda thought about the SAM connection too, but didn't really see how
the two companies could get together (SAM's the mothership and CUT looked
too expensive). So I basically forgot about the thing until this morning. When I
opened the NR i was "Three for one! That's cheap!"
And this is the thing: When I looked before CUT.v looked too expensive to be bought out by
SAM.to. The surprise came with the un-noticed drop in CUT.v, which is likely about their lack of
cash to get free cash flow positive on its business model. That's where SAM.to comes in,
because as a coporation it has the treasury to fund CUT into full production.
As a business model, taking somebody else's mined material, processing it and keeping the
margin difference makes sense (Dynacor (DNT.to) has show it works in Peru, but with slightly
different pruchased material). This deal makes a LOT of sense for SAM.to and the fact that both
stocks rose on news of the deal...
14

...is evidence it's not being done in a total rip-off way by the mothership company (eg no Bharti
tricks in play), even though I'd quickly agree that SAM.to's timing on this is opportunistic. It's a
deal that favours SAM.to shareholders and as I'm one of them, I'm good about it. Hey, it's
capitalism and it's not always "fair", get used to the idea.
As things stand today SAM.to has 151.947m shares outstanding, plus 11.785m options and
557k warrants outstanding. As the merger means (and let's quote), "Starcore will issue
approximately 28,667,550 Starcore Shares and 10,245,750 common share purchase warrants
exercisable at $0.13 and $0.25, and expiring in January, February and March of 2016", those
number go to these on a pro-forma basis:
New Starcore
• S/O: 180.62m
• Options: 11.785m
• Warrants: 10.8m
• F/D: 203.2m
And at 15c, the pro-forma market cap comes to $27.1m. For that price you get a company
that's adding a whole bunch of cheap assets to its core of a positive free cash flow gold mining
operation. Yes for sure it's a small one, but it avoids the "do something" problem that other
Land Grab plays potentially suffer (see FF.v) and keeps dilution down and people happy about
"something" happening. In the meantime, the assets being bolted on should appreciate if I
have this Land Grab theory correct.
What was that last paragraph? A long-winded way of saying "I really like Starcore from here".
Focus Ventures (FCV.v): On Wednesday (11) the Gold Group mothership company Radius
Gold (RDU.v) officially changed its business to become an investment issuer. We now wait to
see whether RDU becomes a direct source of some of the funds FCV will need to pay off that
Sprott loan. I for one would welcome that sort of move, as it would take away the ticking clock
from Bayovar12 ownership. How about putitng $2.5m to it, guys?
In trading FCV did very little, though we note (12) that Gold Group head honcho and poker star
Simon Ridgway has been nibbling and buying a few more FCV shares on the open market. He
bought another 6,000 last week which is a small number, but that puts his personal holding of
FCV.v up to 3,257,014 shares and that's an altogether bigger number.
The Copper Basket
After eighteen weeks of 2015 The Copper Basket is showing a 6.72% loss to level stakes.
15

company ticker price 1/1/15 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Capstone Min. CS.to 2.03 381.95 622.58 1.63 -19.7%
2 Reservoir Min. RMC.v 3.96 47.55 202.09 4.25 7.3%
3 NGEx Resources NGQ.to 1.17 187.71 176.45 0.94 -19.7%
4 Nevada Copper NCU.to 1.65 80.5 152.15 1.89 14.5%
5 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.27 173.65 76.41 0.44 63.0%
6 Copper Fox CUU.v 0.135 402.96 70.52 0.175 29.6%
7 Western Copper WRN.to 0.68 93.68 56.21 0.60 -11.8%
8 NovaCopper NCQ.to 0.58 60.15 42.11 0.70 20.7%
9 Hot Chili Ltd HCH.ax 0.16 333.11 38.31 0.115 -37.5%
10 Panoro Minerals PML.v 0.295 220.25 31.94 0.145 -50.8%
11 Regulus Res REG.v 0.35 56.39 20.86 0.37 5.7%
12 AQM Copper AQM.v 0.06 141 8.46 0.06 0.0%
13 Metminco MNC.ax 0.008 1822.6 8.20 0.0045 -43.8%
14 Catalyst Copper CCY.v 0.305 31.41 6.28 0.20 -34.4%
15 Coro Mining COP.to 0.045 159.37 4.78 0.03 -33.3%
NB: HCH.ax & MNC.ax priced in AUD$, rest CAD$ Portfolio avg -6.72%
4% The Copper Basket 2015, weekly evolution
An improvement on the week, as you might
2%
expect after the strong price action in the
underlying metal. The overall basket average 0%
rose by % on the week with the bigger names -2%
tending to be the better performers, which is -4%
what the bulls would want and expect. Seven -6%
stocks put in gains (CS.to, NGQ.to, NCU.to, -8%
ARG.to, HCH.ax, NCQ.to, REG.v), three were -10%
unchanged (AQM.v, COP.to, CCY.v, our three
smallest by market cap) and five showed losses
(RMC.v, PML.v, WRN.to, CUU.v, MNC.ax). The
best moves came from Hot Chili (HCH.ax up
15.0%), Capstone Mining (CS.to up 13.2%), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to up 12.8%) and
Regulus (REG.v up 8.8%), with the only big percentage loser Metminco (MNC.ax down 10.0%).
Meanwhile, over where the big boys play the copper market was full-on bullish and these charts
will save both you and I a few hundred words of explanation. On the left you get the dailies,
which shows that Friday's close was the hgighest for copper in 2015. On the right you get the
hourlies, which shows how Thursday and the China macro news made all the difference and
saw copper bid up incessantly.
16
ht4naj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1bef ht8 ht51 dn22 ts1ram ht8 ht51 dr32 ht92 ht5rpa ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yam
source: IKN calcs

As for reasons it's all down to the obvious one, China. This Reuters report (13)...
LONDON, May 1 (Reuters) - Copper prices rose on Friday to their highest since
December thanks to seasonal demand and hopes for economic stimulus measures in
top consumer China.
has the basic story and also traders calling for the rally to top out at around U$,6500/tonne
(that's U$2.95/lb in old money) unless the market gets new fundies impetus. That sounds about
right to me and for the moment I'm sticking to my "show me above $3/lb" call to get out of my
official neutral position on copper.
We move to inventories and here's the state of play in our month-end tracking charts:
The story is Shanghai, with the LME seeing little action since March and the China-dependent
SHFE system getting its now well-documented drawdown, better late than never. As for the
weekly action here are the regular bullet points:
• Total stocks dropped again and for the third week running, Shanghai is the story. World
copper stocks dropped by a total of 18,054 metric tonnes (mt) (-3.2%) to close Friday
at 549,932mt.
• Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped big again, this time by 20,120mt (-9.7%) to finish
at 188,165mt. So, three weeks of -4.1% then -9.7% then -9.7%, bullish by any
measure.
• LME warehouses stocks made little movement again, up the same 450mt as last week
(kinda weird) (+0.1%) to finish at 338,125mt.
• Comex warehouses continued its own mini-rollercoaster, this time up 1,616mt (+7.3%)
to finish at 22,026mt.
The Shanghai-only weekly chart is here, the new de-stocking trend fully confirmed. The only
question now is to wonder how low it goes and whether the number will go under 100k again.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014/2015
260000
240000
220000
200000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
17
31'13ceD ht21 ht62 ht9 dr32 ht9 dr32 ht6rpa ht02 ht4yam ht81 ts1enuj ht51 ht92 ht31 ht72 ht01 ht42 ht7 ts12 ht5tco ht91 dn2von ht61 ht03 ht41 ht82 ht11 ht52 ht8 dn22 ht8 dn22 ht5rpa ht91 dr3yam
Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Mt Cu
source: Cochilco
21.naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 31.naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 41.naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 51.naj bef ram rpa
Copper inventories, per month 2012-2014
1000000
LME Shanghai Comex
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
source: Cochilco
21.naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 31.naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 41.naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 51.naj bef ram rpa
Mt Cu
LME Shanghai Comex
source: Cochilco

Now for some notes on a few of our basket components.
Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to): For a moment I thought I'd get my 70c out last week,
but the stock faded back. If volume picks up so will price and I'll take my small sidebet profit.
No rush if it doesn't.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): All it needed was for me to give up on the trade for it to do
what I thought it capable of doing. Oh ha ha, so witty
I am not, but ARG.to is now turning into the success
story of 2015 small copper. To nitpick, it still doesn't
have any big volume backing and until the upgraded
operation comes on line at the end of the year it's
going to be a lossmaker, but it looks for all the world
like there's longer-term money supporting the ARG.to
price now.
I have to say that it looks overbought now, but my
track record precludes any sort of expert good
judgment on the stock. There's a lot of 2016 upside
now baked into this current price and the next two
quarters at least aren't going to show strong results.
AQM Copper (AQM.v): AQM released its 2014 year-end financials on Thursday evening and
everything looks in order. As at December 31, 2014 working capital was $2.41m, with the cash
position at $2.14m. The company states that's sufficient to cover its 2015 budget, which is the
regulatory period only. I'd expect that cash to last into 2016 as well.
18

AQM also confirmed that its pro-rata share of the exploration and development JV budget was
fully covered and it's all good to get through to the Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) publication date,
which is still slated for early 2016. With 140.997m shares out and a 6c market price that's been
steady for quite a while, this is still my idea of deep value in the copper space, though obviously
it's high risk. It's one I've traded before, once well, once very badly and then a quick in-and-
out. The project itself is lowish grading but the central sweet spot grades well and there's more
than enough for the type of quick payback starter pit type operation the market tends to like.
Metallurgy will be a key factor and that's going to get a lot of light shone upon it when the PFS
turns up. I know the Teck people like this project and it's one they've kept on (or close to) their
books for many years. The last variable to consider is Tia Maria, as although Zafranal isn't that
close to the contentious coastal project it is quite close and significanly, there's a big
agricultural development just a few kilometres away from the mine site. You can bet the AQM
people are wathcing the Tia Maria situation very carefully (as well as cursing the Grupo Mexico
idiots for doing such a bad community relations job over the years) and if the situaiton thaws
there, AQM will be a more interesting project.
Once again, I'm going to stay on the sidelines here for the moment. But it's one that has a
chance and at 6c, there's a big potential win in percentage terms if things start to go right.
The Low Cost Producer Basket
After 18 weeks, the 2015 Low Cost Producer Basket is showing a 10.05% gain to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/15 Shares out Mkt Cap (Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Goldcorp GG 18.52 830 15.50 18.68 0.9%
2 Barrick ABX 10.75 1164.67 15.22 13.07 21.6%
3 Newmont NEM 18.90 499.08 13.22 26.49 40.2%
4 Franco Nevada FNV 49.19 156.5 8.35 53.37 8.5%
5 Silver Wheaton SLW 20.33 403.75 8.14 20.17 -0.8%
6 Agnico Eagle AEM 24.89 214.12 6.79 31.73 27.5%
7 Buenaventura BVN 9.56 254.19 2.85 11.21 17.3%
8 Kinross KGC 2.82 1146.2 2.80 2.44 -13.5%
9 Pan American PAAS 9.20 151.64 1.44 9.50 3.3%
10 B2Gold BTG 1.62 921.27 1.43 1.55 -4.3%
all prices in U$, using NYSE ticker prices Portfolio avg 10.05%
A good week for the producers, with our basket average moving up in lockstep with the GDX
benchmark and ending the week 10% up on the year, which isn't bad. Just one loser on the
week which was Goldcorp (GG), then one that remained unchanged (BTG). The other eight
were weekly winners and among them some good moves too, led by Franco-Nevada (FNV up
8.4%), Agnico Eagle (AEM up 6.4%), Kinross (KGC up 6.1%), Newmont again (NEM up 6.0%)
and Silver Wheaton (SLW up 5.3%). As the tracking chart shows, we're in the best sector shape
since PDAC.
The Low Cost Producer Basket: Weekly performance
and comparative to GDX control
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
19
ts13ceD ht4naj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1bef ht8 ht51 dr42 ts1ram ht8 ht51 dr32 ht92 ht5rpa ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yam
basket
gdx control
source: Google Finance, IKN calcs

Our list is just ahead of the benchmark GDX by a tiny, slivery 0.21%:
Low Cost Basket: Percentage difference between
basket and GDX control, 2014
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
-2.0%
-2.5%
-3.0%
20
ts13ceD ht11 ht52 ht8 dr42 ht8 dr32 ht5rpa ht91 dr3yam
|
source: ikn calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq data
For the record (and for what it's worth) I took time last week to update the exact share counts
of our basket component stocks. End April's a good time to do it because as you get the main
bunch of Management Information Circulars during the month and the up-to-date share
number is a regulatory filing in that document. Two of the chunkiest changes happened to
Agnico Eagle and Goldcorp (due to acquisitions paid for in shares), most changed by modest
amounts only.
Goldcorp (GG): Goldcorp got whacked again, mostly due to its own bad numbers, partly due
to bad timing. This five day chart that pits GG against our benchmark GDX squiggly line tells the
story nicely, as GG published its 1q15 pre-
open Thursday morning, the same day that
gold and the mining complex went down
(14) for some made up stupid reason about
US weekly jobs that were the flimsiest of BS
excuses to manipulate the price down.
The BS stench of the artificial gold price
dump fooled few people and as noted both
above and below, plenty of other stocks in
the the gold producer universe staged
decent recoveries from the early hit. But we
also had to have a whipping boy and that
was GG. Again.
I mentioned a few editions ago that GG looked to me like a good bet to buy on its recent
weakness. That shows you how dangerous a little knowledge can be, because my call 100%
sucked and GG continues to lag all others, including ABX which has hardly been a star
performer either (no matter what CEO Thornton says or how much he's overpaid).
But back to GG: The main drag on the financials last week was a higher than expected
depreciation number, which was probably a one-time occurance but also smacks to me as yet
another assets write-down, just hidden among the P+L this time. That knocked net earnings to
a small loss (EPS -1c) when the world expected a modest profit, and they'd pre-released
production and cash costs numbers, so it was a bucket of cold water. The thing here is that GG
was expected to have its weakest quarter in Q1 and things should only get better. It looks way
oversold (instead of merely 'oversold' in my previous bad guess) and unlike peers, has
underlying balance sheet strength and a very decent pipeline of near-term growth, what with
Eleonore and Cerro Negro now online. And it has a strong balance sheet. I'm not really into big
caps and The IKN Weekly follows these larger companies as a basket ultimately in order to
gauge the relative performance of our preferred small-fry juniors but if I were to buy and reco a
Tier 1 for the rest of this year, it'd be GG. Stick me down as "theoretically bought at under
U$19" and see where things stand come Christmas, mainly because its assets are truly worth

what they say they're worth and its financial debt position is fully under control (can't say that
for ABX). And did I mention the strong balance sheet that I really like at GG? The $831m
working cap? The $20.50 BV/share ratio? I did? Oh, good.
Franco Nevada (FNV): Friday saw the official confirmation that FNV will become a component
of the Canadian TSX 60 big board, with estimates of tracking indexes, funds etc needing to add
around 3.8m shares by May 7th to get their weightings in line. That made for strong demand
for the stock as as a result...
...a good week that totally ignored the soft gold price and beat out just about all its peers.
That's the NYSE FNV ticker by the way, but the TSX ticker action was nearly identical.
Buenaventura (BVN) 1q15 results
A short update on BVN, covering the main number only. We got its 1q15 results post-bell
Wednesday and BVN reported a U$17.3m net profit (15). We noted last week in IKN311 that
Yanacocha was due to throw off around $50m in operating profits for BVN and its $26.5m in
booked profits (after extras) was right in line with that. This implies the rest of BVN ran at a
small overall loss. Overall a non-exciting
quarter that came in on the soft side but
was enough to see BVN's share price
consolidate its gains from the previous
week.
As for development news, Tambomayo
was reported on schedule, with the
company waiting for construction permits
and 2q16 slated for commissioning. The
new mine would run at around 110k to
120k oz Au/annum, plus around 3m oz
Ag, which makes for a very decent
kicker. I was interested to note that BVN
is obviously waiting for the official
construction permits from the
government and not going for the euphemistic "pre-construction" route that can have mine
operations start just a few weeks after the official permits are awarded. BVN looks keen to play
this one 100% by the book.
21

Regional politics
Do your risk DD at a local level
We covered the Bear Creek (BCM.v) Santa Ana events when they happened and we've
occasionally made reminder of the anti-mining atmosphere in the Puno region of South Peru
covered by what's know as "Aymara Nation", an area to the South of Lake Titicaca that
stretches down to Bolivia and is home to the Aymara culture. This sub-region has a different
(and negative) attitude towards mining and foreign direct investment than the Northern Andean
mountain regions of Puno.
Here's the topical example: A couple of weeks ago a rumour started spreading that an area of
the Aymara region close to Lake Titicaca had been put under mining concession. A local
committee was formed and they discovered that an application for a concession had been made
by a private mining company that included one of the local political leaders. As a result (16)
(17), the locals have banded together, have said that any move to even start exploration in the
zone would be resisted, that the local politico who now won't set foot in the area should come
and face "community justice" (it won't be lethal or deeply violent, but neither is it very
pleasant) and that any attempt by national authorities to impose a mining project would see
protests "worse than the Aymarazo" in 2011 that caused the stoppage at Santa Ana.
The moral of this little story could be region-specific and to say "Junior exploreco keep away
from Nación Aymara". But it's more about the specific local knowledge needed in all parts of
Peru and even the wider LatAm region. Just because a country declares itself "miner friendly", it
doesn't mean that mining activity is welcomed over its length and breadth. Specific local
knowledge is always paramount and will always trump official national policy.
Guatemala: It's an election year all right
Last weekend and all through the week just gone Guatemala politics has been dominated by a
full-scale corruption scandal that directly involves the country's Vice President Roxana Baldetti
and the links to the President himself, Otto Pérez Molina, are way too strong to be mere
coincidence. To pick one decent English language primer on the subject out of several options
(18) and offer a small excerpt:
Prosecutors on 16 April revealed the results of an eight-month investigation into a
network created to defraud the national revenue agency. Dubbed by prosecutors “La
Línea” – or “The Line” for the telephone number provided to importers seeking to
evade duties – the group allegedly took bribes in return for underreporting the value of
imported goods. According to prosecutors, it operated within customs offices at ports
and border crossings, manipulating shifts so that conspirators could be placed on duty
at specific times in specific locations.
Authorities arrested 21 suspects on 16 April, including the current and former heads of
the revenue agency. The fraud was allegedly orchestrated by Vice President Roxana
Baldetti’s private secretary, Juan Carlos Monzón, who recently travelled with her to
South Korea. His whereabouts since are uncertain and he has been declared
a fugitive.
In fact Señor Monzón was in South Korea when the scandal blew and has apparently decided
not to return to Guatemala with his employer. Because of innocence and that. This is a multi-
million dollar corruption case with very strong evidence of wrongdoing at all levels of the
current administration and it's a full-blown scandal, be in no doubt.
As last week also saw the official start of the election campaign period, it becomes a lesser
point as to whether President Otto Pérez Molina survives this crisis or not. The likelihood is that
he'll ignore all resignation calls and keep a low profile (he can't be re-elected and as head of
state has no right to campaign for his preferred successor),
What's also interesting is the lack of coverage being given to the subject both inside Guatemala
22

(frankly it's easier to read updates in English than it is in Spanish from the normal madia
sources in Guat) and in the international mainstream, which would be howling for blood by now
if it weren't for President Pérez Molina's "business friendly" right wing mantle. The world seems
to want to ignore this one and hope it goes away, but what I see is a playing field that's ripe for
a populist grassroots movement to surge and upset the established balance of power between
the leading parties who are all in this highly corrupt game together. I used the word "tinderbox"
on the blog last week (19) to describe the country, that's no exaggeration and the man
featured in that post, Dionisio Gutiérrez, is just the type of figure some new people-led
movement could rally behind. Just because you're hearing nothing doesn't mean that nothing's
happening.
Meanwhile, in another front you'll hear nothing about, another local province ran a local
referendum (which the national government will not recognize) that declared itself free from
any sort of mining activity (20). In this way Cunén, Quiché added itself to the other 40
provinces in Guatemala that have self-declared themselves free from mining.
Chile quickly recovering from the Northern floods
As posited on these pages a couple of editions ago, the damage to Chile's mining sector caused
by the Atacama flash floods of March is going to be temporary in nature. For the month, Chile's
INE beancounters last week estimated that North region mining production was affected with a
drop of around 6% from previous forecasts, which is a drop of course but hardly a disaster.
Meanwhile on Friday mining minister Aurora Williams said that road infrastructure repairs were
ongoing and 80% of roads and connectivity had already been re-established. To quote the lady
(translated near-literally just for fun and to show you how formal Spanish sounds) (21), "The
advances in the recuperation of connectivity in the roadways that go to mining works have
reached 80%". Bottom line: this isn't a supply crimp on copper, nor is it oging to be a big hit to
Chile's overall economy in 2015 or beyond.
Peru Tia Maria
Last week saw attacks by anti-miners on the houses of locals who won't join in the protest, a
particularly interesting moment when the local police station was attacked by way of revenge
(or so the locals say) for the brutality meted out by police in recent confrontations, a beefing up
of police presence as a result of that police station stoning (that went on for about an hour and
reported had the police inside rattled) and a showdown yesterday Saturday evening that
finished with shotgun injuries for one local protester (no prizes for guessing what happened
there). We also saw leaders of the anti-mine movement turn up at a negotiation talk in
Arequipa city, only to be greeted at the meeting by a range of strongly pro-mine politicians who
wanted to join want was supposed to be a meeting between mining ministry officials and local
only. Unsurprisingly the anti-mine Tambo Valley local leaders walked out of what they called a
staged circus show. In other words, it may have been off the international headline radar but
things haven't got any better.
Colombia: Santurban anti-mining groups haven't stopped the protests
What we're not getting is a lot of media coverage on the anti-mining protests in and around the
Paramo de Santurbán uplands, the same ones that host Eco Oro and their friends. However the
protests and pushback against mining continues there as witnessed last week wehna another
march demanding the protection of the area's water and the nullifying of mining concessions
took place. (23). As noted previously, I don't see an ounce of value in Eco-Oro (EOM.to) as a
play even if it gets to build its mine (there's an awful lot of share dilution to come even with a
green light), but if the political and community atmosphere improved in the region then CB Gold
(CBJ.v) might be a low priced, high risk/high reward option to consider.
Mexico: Nice map
I'd like to draw your attention to this link, because I came across it while checking out an anti-
mining report last week (not linking to the report because it was nothing special,, a long
diatribe with more heat than light and written in classic lefty style) (24). It's a PDF map that
shows all the mining projects and operations in Mexico owned by foreign capitals. It includes
23

projects, working operations and other categories and it blows up really big so you can see the
fine detail. It's well worth a looksee and is good source material.
Argentina: Latest polls point to Scioli again
Last time we mentioned pollster Poliarquia, one of the more reliable in the country. Today we
mention a polling hosue called 'Management & Fit' (yeah, I think it's a weird name too) and its
latest voter intention poll out Thursday for the Presidential election in October. The headline
news is (25):
Scioli 33.3%
Macri 29.4%
Massa 14.6%
One takeaway is the continued collapse in support for Sergio Massa and the firming up of our
assumption that it's going to be a fight between Scioli and Macri from here (with Scioli
favourite). But the interesting thing here is that 'Management & Fit is generally considered to
be an anti-Kirchnerist polling company with a bias against the current CFK government and its
very likely candidate Scioli. Noteworthy for example is how the very same pollster put Macri in
the lead in February 2015 (26) on 27.9%, with Scioli on 23.6% and Massa on 18.8%. This
shows how Scioli has held onto and even extended an advantage over his rivals.
The PRO party of Macri and its candidates had a strong showing the the Capital Federal PASO
primaries last weekend, but as mentioned in IKN311 that was to be expected and also CapFed
really isn't so important in the great scheme of National political things (which still surprises
people after all these years; even Perón himself used to fail to capture the city...democratically
speaking, of course). Overall, we're seeing the fading of Massa and the strategic positioning of
the two people now set to duke it out for the big job. Scioli and Macri, with Scioli in the front
and looking solid.
Market Watching
The Coastal Gold (COD.v) merger gets competition
I'm sure you've seen how First Mining Finance (FF.v) launched a competing bid for Coastal Gold
(COD.v) last week (27), trying to take the prize away from the Bharti investment vehicle
Sulliden Mining Capital (SMC.to) who then upped their bid very slightly (28) and then Coastal
Gold (COD.v) after independent review (oh how we laughed (29)) decides to approve the SMC
bid and ignore the nominally higher offer from FF.v (30) deciding that the lowball offer was the
better one. Nothing to do with the way Stan Bharti runs all moving parts except FF.v of course.
Anyway, flippancy aside I want to say two things:
1) Theoretically there's an interesting risk trade here. You buy COD.v tomorrow Monday at 3c (I
wouldn't pay a tenth more than that), hope that the merger with SMC.to is voted down and
then FF.v will be able to buy the shares off you at aorund 5c (or perhaps more). The risk is that
the SMC.to is approved and you're then stuck holding a Bharti penny disaster.
2) After careful deliberation, checking the terms of the deal and consulting with a few of the
people going active on this, I'm not going to buy any COD.v myself tomorrow. For one reason
it's risky. For another, if the COD/SMC fails on the 6th I firmly believe there will be a window in
which I can pick up shares at a competitive price and flip them back to the eventual buyout
winner at a higher price. I may have to pay mroe than 3c that day, but the risk will be much
lower and the reward may even turn out to be higher in percentage terms if they really start
scrapping for the assets.
So there it is, the call for those of us outside and watching is to wait until May 6th, see what
happens at the EGM (or even before that) and then perhaps make a move. Though I will state
clearly that if you happen to be a holder of COD.v share, your best course of action is to vote
24

against the SMC deal and for the FF.v deal when you get the chance to do so later on.
STOP PRESS: Late Sunday night FF.v has just upped its bid on COD.v and here's the link
and an excerpt:
http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/first-mining-delivers-renewed-proposal-to-acquire-coastal-gold-corp-tsx-
venture-ff-2015773.htm
Based on the closing prices of each of First Mining, COD and Sulliden as of
May 1, 2015, the Increased Proposal implies a value of $0.06 per COD
common share, which represents a premium of:
167% to the implied value of $0.0225 per COD common share under the
Sulliden Agreement (the total value of Sulliden's offer being $3,807,618 as
opposed to the total implied value of First Mining's offer which is
$10,153,649);
261% to the unaffected COD common share price on February 27, 2015, the
last trading day prior to the public announcement of the Sulliden Agreement;
and
100% to the current market price of the COD common shares.
This may tip the balance. Without going back to the model, I'd say that if you can get 3c shares
tomorrow they're now definitely worth the risk. But it's way too late here to start thinking again,
I'm way tired and want to get the Weekly sent. Sorry.
GoldQuest (GQC.v) releases its PEA
Last Wednesday GoldQuest Mining (GQC.v)
published (31) news of a revised PEA (scoping
study) for its Romero gold project in Dominican
Republic.
As this 10 day chart shows, GQC had already moved
up sharply before the PEA was delivered and the
Wednesday morning saw trading peak at 20c (from
an easy to get 9c just the week before) which
smacked of good jungledrums. When the PEA came,
we saw eyecatching headline numbers such as this
selection of highlight bullet points...
• Pre-tax net present value ("NPV") of $355 million based on a 6% discount rate ($219 million NPV
after-tax).
• Pre-tax internal rate of return ("IRR") of 46% (34% IRR after tax).
• Life-of-mine ("LOM") all-in sustaining costs ("AISC") of $572/oz gold equivalent ("AuEq") payable.
• Payback of capital within 2.7 production years.
• Pre-production capital expenditure estimate of $143 million, plus $92 million of sustaining and closure
capital over LOM totaling $235 million.
• A nine-year underground mine at an average production rate of 912,500 tonnes per year (2,500
tonnes per day) with an average production of 117,000 recovered AuEq oz per year.
25

...but it's worth your time to read all the NR. As market watcher Junior Gold Miner Seeker
pointed out last weekend (32), before GQC delivered the 43-101 study, respected newsletter
writer Eric Coffin has been talking GQC up in recent days and the reaction in the stock price
came both before and after the material news:
For the record I have been, am and will remain a fan of Eric Coffin's, he's one of the best
commentators on the sector out there. What we saw from him in April was a good old
fashioned promo on a junior and by heavens, it worked! It's part of the territory when the
market's in reasonable shape, so seeing one pulled off in these sick times for explorecos was
both interesting a somewhat refreshing. I applaud Coffin (and hope he took some profits).
Regarding my own thoughts on the content of the GQC report, a mailpal "sector pro" in a
regular three-cornered discussion group-ette (we definitively put the world to rights and are
never, ever wrong about anything, oh yes) asked for my initial thoughts on the GQC PEA that
same morning, here's what I wrote back:
Apart from the fact I sold my GQC at under 10c and missed the pop? That alone
discounts my opinion as of any authority, but I'll add:
Eric Coffin has done a very good promo job on this the last week and a half. Kudos to
him.
The PEA looks good enough. It's probably "optimized" and the sustaining capex figure
looks suspiciously high for a 9 year project (maybe offloading from the capex). But it
has the type of eyecatching IRR you'd want from a smaller sized project.
However the comparison is the thing: Ollachea is a similar size, more advanced, an
obviously better project, more upside, a better address, unbeatable political risk profile.
So if Ollachea gets ignored so will this, macq debt or not.
I'm not a buyer of GQC on this.
He basically agreed with that call (though worth mentioning that he's not as enthusiastic as me
on Minera IRL's Ollachea project, but that's not a new call of his).
My point is this: This wekeend GQC sits at a higher market cap than IRL, but in the great
scheme of thing the $8m or so difference in market cap isn't that great and allows us to
compare their projects. The GQC Romero has its advantages such as a slightly higher annual
gold production (by perhaps 10k), a lower ticket price and the corporation doesn't have that
$30m in Macquarie financial debt hanging rounds its neck like a yoke.
BUT: Romero is at PEA stage, it's in a country with no track record of formal mining and poor
infrastructure. Meanwhile IRL at Ollachea is a far more advanced project, has strong community
support, it's in the right place in the right country and has all the things you need on hand to
build and run the mine and has serious permitting done and awarded such as its EIA. Ollachea
26

has obvious exploration upside that's a near-certainty to improve the mine life into the far
distance and also, it's not faking an inch on its capex, its "sustaining capex" or general
operating costs.
And here's the bottom line: We know that Ollachea is being roundly ignored by this crappy
market at present (and I know that because I have the languishing shares to prove it). Now I'm
not saying one will be a mine before the other, or both will be mines or neither, what I am
saying is that if IRL at Ollachea is ignored in the way we've seen, then that's the fate of GQC at
Romero as soon as the bubbly promo hype wears off. So it may sound like sour grapes on my
part, what with selling my GQC at a big percentage loss just before a pop would have turned it
into a sale at a semi-big percentage loss (in fact it's not sour grapes, but at least the accusation
would stand to reason), but GQC is not one that interests me.
Thinking about Atico Mining (ATY.v)
I dusted off the model for Atico Mining (ATY.v) last Thursday after it announced its production
numbers for the 1q15 period (33) and on due consideration, plus taking into account its recent
and sustained price drop, I'm more interested in this stock now than at any point since its IPO.
What follows is little mroe than am ATY.v primer, because it hasn't been mentioned much on
these pages, but if there's any or enough interest in the weeks ahead (from any of you out
there and/or from me as a potential personal investment) we can go into more detail.
Here are a couple of price charts showing the three year timeline since just after the IPO on the
left, then the 12 month chart on the right. The 45.5c this weekend is the lowest since its early
days, with a high of over $1 marked in early 2013 on a dubious Casey Research-led pump job.
As for this week's news, as these production charts easily demonstrate for the main paying
metal copper (around 80% of revenues) and then gold (the other 20%, as long as we don't
include the cash from the very minor silver revs) 1q15 came in very light
Mlbs Cu ATY.v: Copper production per qtr ATY.v: Gold production per qtr
Oz Au
3.5
3500
3
3000
2.5
2500
2
2000
1.5 1500
1 1000
0.5 500
0 0
1q13 2q13 3q13 4q13 1q14 2q14 3q14 4q14 1q15 1q13 2q13 3q13 4q13 1q14 2q14 3q14 4q14 1q15
source: company filings source: company filings
However that had already been flagged by the company and it was mainly due to lower mill
throughput for the quarter due to machinery downtime (though we should also note that head
grades were a little lower during the quarter, too).
27

What ATY has in the pipeline for 2015 is the coming
online of a throughput upgrade and better uptime for mt/qtr ATY.v: Tonnages milled
50000
the mill that should see processed tonnages and
therefore production move higher. That's what a lot of 40000
its current promotion is based upon and from my
30000
perspective, it's well baked into this price.
20000
ATY.v has 97.59m shares out, which puts its market
10000
cap at CAD$44.4m this weekend. Also, as at the last
reporting date of December 31st the cash position of 0
U$5.1m was pretty good, but working cap was 1q14 2q14 3q14 4q14 1q15
negative $1.2m or so because the original financial source: company filings
debt (mostly from Traficura) that set up the company
is now coming due and $6.2m moved to current liabilities. With this soft quarter we've just seen
reported, plus financial obligations in the pipeline, things might become tight at ATY.v.
And therein lies the potential opportunity in the stock and why it's getting a mention today. I'm
definitely not a buyer today as the next set of financials may make the stock look weaker than
most people imagine. The 45.5c share price today is interesting but it doesn't strike me as a
scremaing bargain. However, if the 1q15 financials come in as badly as I think they may and
the market starts to notice the pressured balance sheet, this equity could go lower and present
a decent buying opportunity. The potential trade would then hinge on getting a decent bargain
entry point into a producing copper/gold miner at what could turn out to be a good time to
renew positions in copper companies. ATY also brings strong exploration upside to the table
and a mine that could be in production for years or even decades to come at current rates, or
open to expansion thanks to the discovery of more high sulphidation lenses the company ahs
alreayd made since opening up there. That's all for today's intro, feel free to prod me for more
if it's piqued your interest enough.
Conclusion
IKN312 is done, we end with bullet points:
• Atacama Pacific (ATM.v), open and immediately in the green. This is the type of signal
that puts a spring in my step about the 'Land Grab' plan I'm running for 2015, the scent
of being on the right track and others looking for the right sort of bargain, too.
• The more I look at what Starcore (SAM.to) is doing, the more I like it. It could be unfair
on Cortez (CUT.v) shareholders to fold it into SAM.to at such a cheap multiple
compared to anything in 2014 but fair's for other worlds, this is capitalism. Ha.
• Lake Shore Gold (LSG.to) might even be the one I make into a Top Pick, the way things
are going. Still very keen to see what McEwen Mining (MUX) comes out with in its
1q15, but LSG has that ducks-in-line feel about it now.
• I've passed on Atico (ATY.v) plenty of times. I even passed on it before it existed,
which is a story for another day. We may finally be approaching an interesting buy
window on the stock. Not yet though, let's see how its quartelrly financial come in and
how the market reacts in the weeks after that.
• Please check out that STOP PRESS on FF.v and Coastal (COD.v).
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Otto
28

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/
(2) http://www.smallcappower.com/experts/posts/junior-venture-exchange-needs-cleansing-says-rick-rule-of-sprott-
global-resource-investments
(3) http://incakolanews.blogspot.ca/2015/04/teranga-tgzto-tgzax-and-lake-shore.html
(4) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lake-shore-gold-reports-strong-103000852.html
(5) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/productivity-improvements-favourable-cost-conditions-100000601.html
(6) http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2015/04/if-you-want-to-know-who-took-up-first.html
(7) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/first-majestic-silver-corp-first-150000929.html
(8) http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2015/04/more-junior-mining-incest-starcore.html
(9) http://www.imining.com/s/Home.asp
(10) http://www.cortezgoldcorp.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=687795&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Cortez-
Completes-Construction-and-Begins-Testing-of-Altiplano-Processing-Pl...
(11) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/radius-gold-completes-change-business-205045579.html
(12) https://www.canadianinsider.com/company?menu_tickersearch=Focus%20Ventures%20Ltd.%20%7C%20FCV
(13) http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFL5N0XS0JO20150501?sp=true
(14) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldcorp-reports-first-quarter-results-120000690.html
(15) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/buenaventura-announces-first-quarter-2015-030300236.html
(16) http://www.larepublica.pe/01-05-2015/dirigentes-de-chucuito-alertan-de-otro-aymarazo
(17) http://radioondaazul.com/?c=noticia&id=49528
(18) http://blog.crisisgroup.org/latin-america/2015/04/30/ending-corruption-in-guatemala/
(19) http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2015/04/more-guatemala.html
(20) http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2opx54
(21) http://aminera.com/index.php/mineria-nacional/item/11127-ministra-de-miner%C3%ADa-destaca-avance-en-
recuperaci%C3%B3n-de-faenas-tras-aluviones-en-atacama.html
(23) http://www.elcolombiano.com/alerta-en-santurban-por-mineria-EJ1812143
(24)
http://www.economia.gob.mx/files/comunidad_negocios/industria_comercio/mapa_proyectos_mineros_empresas_capit
al_ext.pdf
(25) http://www.lavoz.com.ar/politica/scioli-y-macri-concentran-dos-tercios-de-la-intencion-de-voto
(26) http://www.lapoliticaonline.com/nota/87131/
(27) http://incakolanews.blogspot.ca/2015/04/first-mining-finance-ffv-makes-move.html
(28) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sulliden-mining-capital-amends-offer-120000962.html
(29) http://incakolanews.blogspot.ca/2015/04/coastal-golds-codv-unbiased-opinion.html
(30) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/coastal-gold-provides-proposed-transaction-120000553.html
(31) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldquest-releases-highlights-revised-pea-100100955.html
(32) http://juniorgoldminerseeker.blogspot.com/2015/04/eric-coffin-can-still-draw-crowds.html
(33) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/atico-produces-2-0-million-124709162.html
29

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2014
Closed in 2014 closed close price
Fortuna Silver FVI.to jan'14 C$2.80 23-dic-13 C$3.19 13.9% small ST trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to jan'14 C$2.06 07-jun-13 C$2.30 11.7% trading position finally closed
Network Expl. NET.v feb'14 C$0.01 22-jul-12 C$0.005 -50.0% position closed, did nothing
Tahoe Resources TAHO feb'14 U$13.10 08-abr-13 U$21.72 -65.8% short closed due to reality
Darwin Res DAR.v mar'14 C$0.10 14-jul-12 C$0.045 -55.0% tiny risk play dropped
B2Gold BTO.to mar'14 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.35 9.1% closed to free up capital
Pretium Res PVG mar'14 U$5.38 22-nov-13 U$6.50 -20.8% short closed as port longer
Gold Res Corp GORO may'14 U$5.07 26-ene-14 U$4.12 16.7% took profit
Bear Creek Min BCM.v may'14 C$1.63 23-mar-14 C$2.05 25.8% Took profit, sm near-term win
Eco Oro Min. EOM.to aug'14 C$0.48 22-sep-13 C$0.26 -45.8% sold small loser to make room
True Gold TGM.v sep'14 C$0.395 02-feb-14 C$0.41 3.8% M&A won't happen, sold
Santacruz Silver SCZ.v sep'14 C$1.04 26-ene-14 C$0.86 -17.3% silver/M&A spec, rel. small
Timmins Gold TGD nov'14 U$1.38 09-abr-14 U$0.99 -28.3% failed trade, sell, raise cash
Kinross Gold KGC nov'14 U$2.90 20-oct-14 U$2.15 -25.9% V small trade, didn't work, chau
Salazar Res SRL.v hold C$0.28 02-mar-14 C$0.145 -48.2% lost China sponsor
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2013
Closed in 2013 closed close price
USA Graphite USGT feb'13 U$0.93 08-ene-13 U$0.17 81.7% short tgt made/trade closed
Lachlan Star LSA.to feb'13 C$1.50 30-sep-12 C$0.95 -36.7% sold to reduce port risk
United Silver USC.to mar'13 C$0.21 28-oct-12 C$0.095 -54.8% small Ag sector trade, failed
Aurcana Corp AUN.v apr'13 C$1.07 11-nov-12 C$0.55 -48.6% closed on poor YE results
Gold Res Corp GORO apr'13 U$14.11 25-ene-13 U$9.38 33.5% short tgt made/trade closed
Marlin Gold MLN.v apr'13 C$0.075 10-feb-13 C$0.065 -13.3% closed trade
Bear Creek BCM.v may'13 C$2.58 01-abr-13 C$2.40 -7.0% near-term, time ran out
Lupaka Gold LPK.to may'13 C$1.12 23-oct-11 C$0.32 -71.4% towel thrown in
Tahoe Resources TAHO may'13 U$18.62 08-abr-13 U$14.70 21.1% took profit on ST short
OceanaGold OGC.to jun'13 C$3.03 16-sep-12 C$1.18 -61.1% sold on gold drop
IMPACT Silver IPT.v jun'13 C$1.14 13-ene-13 C$0.62 -45.6% sold on silver drop
Duran Ventures DRV.v jun'13 C$0.045 10-may-13 C$0.025 -44.4% ST trade never worked
Plata Latina PLA.v jun'13 C$0.79 10-abr-12 C$0.13 -83.5% closed
Bellhaven BHV.v jun'13 C$0.065 03-jun-13 C$0.12 84.6% closed ST trade
B2Gold BTO.to aug'13 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.44 12.1% sold 1/2 to raise cash
Colossus Min. CSI.to aug'13 C$0.72 24-jul-13 C$0.79 9.7% closed thru nerves on future
Pretium Res PVG.to aug'13 C$8.20 11-jun-13 C$10.14 23.7% closed to raise cash
Bear Creek BCM.v sep'13 C$2.06 30-may-13 C$2.20 6.8% sold on pol risk decision
MAG Silver MVG oct'13 U$7.00 12-sep-13 U$5.62 19.6% near-term short
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'13 U$9.52 03-may-13 U$4.98 47.7% short tgt made, covered
AQM Copper AQM.v oct'13 C$0.31 16-oct-11 C$0.125 -59.7% closed failed trade
First Majestic AG nov'13 U$11.51 07-nov-13 U$10.50 8.8% v near term short, closed
Fortuna Silver FSM nov'13 U$4.00 07-nov-13 U$3.68 8.0% v near term short, closed
Primero PPP nov'13 U$5.70 07-nov-13 U$5.75 -0.9% v near term short, closed
Starcore Intl SAM.to nov'13 C$0.235 08-sep-13 C$0.17 -27.7% ST trade didn't work, sm loss
B2Gold BTO.to dec'13 C$2.22 28-nov-12 C$2.16 -2.7% closed ST trade to raise cash
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2012
Closed in 2012 closed close PPS
Soltoro SOL.v jan'12 C$0.87 07-nov-11 C$0.94 8.0% cash moved to BCM.v
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to feb'12 C$0.84 13-oct-10 C$0.98 16.7% trade closed on ELG.v offer
Minefinders MFN feb'12 U$11.68 17-nov-11 U$14.80 26.7% target made, trade closed
Iron Creek IRN.v mar'12 C$0.58 26-sep-10 C$0.31 -46.6% time up on small bad trade
U.S. Silver USA.to apr'12 C$2.18 15-mar-12 C$1.86 -14.7% ST trade no good, cut loss
Augusta Res. AZC.to may'12 C$3.10 29-jan-12 C$2.07 -33.2% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Bellhaven BHV.v may'12 C$0.50 22-sep-10 C$0.28 -44.0% new mgmt not impressive
Zincore Metals ZNC.to may'12 C$0.325 29-jul-11 C$0.17 -47.7% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Soltoro SOL.v may'12 C$0.70 18-mar-11 C$0.41 -41.4% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
U.S. Silver USA.to aug'12 C$1.78 27-jul-12 C$1.36 -23.6% fail ST trade close pre split
Estrella Gold EST.v aug'12 C$0.91 27-mar-11 C$0.14 -84.6% Closed on port realignment
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'12 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.32 397.2% sell call $6.17/ Mar25
Strait Minerals SRD.v oct'12 C$0.125 09-dec-11 C$0.12 -4.0% closing coverage til FY13
Sunward Res SWD.to oct'12 C$1.47 13-mar-11 C$1.21 -17.7% sold, took loss
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'12 U$21.47 09-sep-12 U$17.40 19.0% Short trade closed
Yellowhead Min. YMI.to nov'12 C$1.00 01-apr-12 C$0.63 -37.0% sold, took loss
Primero Mining PPP nov'12 U$7.26 07-oct-12 U$6.73 7.3% Short trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v nov'12 C$3.38 07-nov-11 C$3.72 10.1% Took small profit
Vena Resources VEM.to dec'12 C$0.70 31-may-09 C$0.18 -74.3% Failed trade (caps F)
Galway Res GWY.v dec'12 C$2.19 24-nov-12 C$2.30 5.0% closed good ST arb trade
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2011
Closed in 2011 closed close PPS
Sunward Res SWD.v jan'11 C$1.05 21-nov-10 C$1.63 55.2% target made, trade closed
Serengeti Res SIR.v mar'11 C$0.245 05-dec-10 C$0.285 16.3% sold pre-tgt, ST trade fail
Fronteer Gold FRG apr'11 U$2.37 03-may-09 U$15.24 543.0% buyout, trade closed
Minefinders MFN apr'11 U$9.09 07-nov-10 U$16.89 85.8% target made, trade closed
Metalline Min. MMG may'11 U$1.04 26-jan-11 U$0.89 -14.4% exit, resource disappointed
Peregrine Met PGM.to jul'11 C$0.87 06-mar-11 C$2.60 198.9% buyout offer, closed
Dynasty Metals DMM.to jul'11 C$4.20 03-may-09 C$2.85 -32.1% Sold. Fail. Move on.
Aura Silver AUU.v aug'11 C$0.22 13-oct-10 C$0.16 -36.4% Bad pick. Take loss
U.S. Silver USA.v aug'11 C$0.52 26-jan-11 C$0.71 36.5% closed to make room
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'11 C$2.80 12-may-11 C$4.27 52.5% target made, trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v sep'11 C$3.80 27-may-11 C$4.17 9.7% macro sell call victim
Minefinders MFN sep'11 U$14.70 10-aug-11 U$15.15 3.1% macro sell call victim
Great Panther GPR.to sep'11 C$3.03 22-aug-11 C$2.64 -12.9% macro sell call victim
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'11 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.36 400.9% sold 20%, macro sell call
Focus Ventures FCV.v nov'11 C$0.40 20-apr-10 C$0.20 -50.0% cut losses, bad trade
Regulus Res. REG.v dec'11 C$1.17 14-aug-11 C$0.52 -55.6% cut on news of poor 43-101
2009 and 2010 closed positions in appendices below
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2010
Closed in 2010 closed close PPS
B2Gold Corp BTO.to Jan'10 C$0.88 08-nov-09 C$1.49 68.2% target made, trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v Jan'10 C$0.18 23-aug-09 C$0.40 122.2% target made, trade closed
MAG Silver MVG mar'10 U$5.60 23-nov-09 U$7.28 30.0% closed in pdac week
Riverside Res RRI.v mar'10 C$0.435 20-sep-09 C$0.60 37.9% closed in pdac week
Amarillo Gold AGC.v mar'10 C$0.81 31-may-09 C$0.70 -13.6% closed in pdac week
B2Gold Corp BTO.to apr'10 C$1.24 18-feb-10 C$1.50 21.0% target made, trade closed
Lumina Copper LCC.v apr'10 C$0.84 14-jun-09 C$1.55 51.2% total position now sold
Troy Resources TRY.to may'10 C$1.10 03-may-09 C$2.25 104.5% sold on negative results
AuEx Ventures XAU.to may'10 C$2.51 24-may-09 C$3.38 34.7% trade closed
Nevada Copper NCU.to jun'10 C$3.27 14-mar-10 C$2.03 -37.9% need to lower Cu exposure
Carpathian Gold CPN.to jun'10 C$0.39 14-mar-10 C$0.35 -10.3% too exposed to cap raising
Amerix PM Corp APM.v jun'10 C$0.065 08-nov-09 C$0.05 -23.1% victim of macro bear
Antares Minerals ANM.v jun'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$2.10 47.9% sold half
Vena Resources VEM.to jun'10 C$0.37 31-may-09 C$0.23 -37.8% sold half
Minera Andes MAI.to sep'10 C$0.75 28-jul-10 C$0.95 26.7% ST trade closed
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to sep'10 C$0.52 01-aug-10 C$0.75 44.2% target made, trade closed
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'10 C$1.45 25-may-10 C$2.01 34.5% target made, trade closed
Blue Sky Uran BSK.v oct'10 C$0.41 19-may-10 C$0.22 -46.3% v small v bad trade closed
Dia Bras Expl DIB.v oct'10 C$0.14 30-aug-09 C$0.35 150.0% target made, trade closed
S. Amer. Silver SAC.to nov'10 C$1.38 24-oct-10 C$1.60 -15.9% loss on short, small fail
Ventana Gold VEN.to nov'10 C$7.92 27-jun-10 C$13.51 70.6% trade closed on buyout
Lumina Copper LCC.v nov'10 C$1.42 11-aug-10 C$3.65 157.0% trade closed
Antares Minerals ANM.v dec'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$8.40 491.5% trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.v dec'10 C$0.69 23-mar-10 C$2.16 213.0% trade closed
Coro Mining COP.to dec'10 C$0.585 03-oct-10 C$1.24 112.0% target made, trade closed
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2009
Closed positions closed closing PPS
Cardero Res CDY/CDU.to May'09 U$1.20 03-May-09 U$0.87 -27.5% sold on negative news
Eastmain Res. ER.to May'09 C$1.04 06-May-09 C$1.315 26.4% trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v May'09 C$0.165 03-May-09 C$0.235 42.4% trade closed
Latin Amer Min. LAT.v May'09 C$0.12 03-May-09 C$0.158 29.2% trade closed
Aquiline Res. AQI.to July'09 C$2.03 16-Jun-09 C$1.68 -17.2% took loss, bad timing
Chariot Resources CHD.to Aug'09 C$0.20 12-Jul-09 C$0.415 107.5% trade closed
Castle Gold CSG.v Sep'09 C$0.64 02-Aug-09 C$0.60 -6.3% ST trade didn't work out
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to Sep'09 C$2.30 12-May-09 C$4.50 95.7% profit taken
Los Andes Copper LA.v Sep'09 C$0.09 21-Jun-09 C$0.09 0% trade closed
Pediment Gold PEZ.to Oct'09 C$0.80 09-Aug-09 C$1.00 25.0% trade closed
Minera Andes MAI.to Oct'09 C$0.68 03-May-09 C$0.71 4.4% too much bad news
Dynasty Metals DMM.to Nov'09 C$4.18 03-May-09 C$6.01 43.8% half sold
Rusoro Mining RML.v Nov'09 C$0.55 03-May-09 C$0.57 3.6% underperformed
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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