IKN #307Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 307, March 29th 2015
Contents
This Week: Fyodor and jobs on Friday, Gold up miners up, gold down miners down, But it's
not all gloom.
Fundamental Analysis: Selling two, covering one, buying one.
Stocks to Follow: Overview, Rio Alto Mining (RIOM) (RIO.to), First Majestic (AG) (FR.to),
Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) (FSM).
Copper Basket: Overview, NovaCopper (NCQ.to), Amerigo (ARG.to), Copper Fox (CUU.v),
Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to).
Low Cost Producer Basket: Overview, Franco Nevada (FNV), Barrick (ABX).
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Fyodor and jobs on Friday
"...man is a frivolous and incongruous creature, and perhaps, like
a chess player, loves the process of the game, not the end of it."
Notes from the Underground, Fyodor Dostoyevsky, 1864
It swings around again, the US BLS non-farm payrolls report Friday morning that will provide
the main macro indicator for the US next week. As usual IKN recommends an eye kept on
Calculated Risk (1) during the week, as the market soothsayers firm up their under/over
opinions on the magic numbers (right now its 247k and 5.5%) and shape the herd's reactions.
Never mind that the announced numbers on Friday morning invariably get changed further
down the line and really don't mean that much in their raw state anyway. Hence the quote you
see up there.
By the way and total OT, as I searched worldmachine to get that quote exactly right I stumbled
upon Notes from the Undeground, available as a 100% legal, zero problems, free e-book
download from the Gutenberg Project, right here (2). It came with a strong recall today of my
Eng Lit teacher, who way back when told me it was "a rewarding text", which is academic code
for "tough to read" and guaranteed heart-sinking for any student who hears their mentor say it.
Though it's true about the reward, as all the Dostoyevskys you'll ever read afterwards are a
doddle in comparison.
Gold up miners up, gold down miners down
As is above, so is below.
As is below, so is above.
Hermes Trismegistus
Once again I'm drawn to the conclusion that there's little joy or alpha for stockpickers in this
current mining company market. We, part of the thin slice of the investment world mad enough
to place mining as its priority, are doing little more today than cheering on the prospects of the
gold price as it continues in its bottoming process (with perhaps an extra hat-tip due to the
1

copper price for base metals purposes) and while that goes on the vast majority of the
dependent stocks, be they Barrick Big or Starcore Small, move on the big tide.
To illustrate, here's a year-to-date chart that includes a bunch of tickers I plugged into an
original chart of GDX in about ten seconds. I didn't think on which to include but just threw in a
few names, big medium small, that get semi or regular coverage in The IKN Weekly:
After hitting the enter button there was no editing out, what you see above is ten seconds'
worth of ticker entries, followed by a few minutes' worth of your author's thoughts on the
resulting mess.
• We came off a tax-loss selling December in which mining shares of all types were weak.
• We saw a good start to 2015 as the overselling compensated.
• We then saw gold move above U$1,300/oz. The stocks responded.
• We then saw gold drop back through U$1,200/oz and to under U$1,150/oz. The stocks?
Yes you've guessed it.
• And now the cork has bobbed back to U$1,200/oz. The stocks? No further comment
needed.
So maybe I could throw sequins in your collective eyes with the next alpha-seeking mega stock
ultrapick that will beat the market hands down, but I don't see much point. Today's market for
miners is about getting the strategy right for the sector, it's not about making the relative
judgements of this-versus-that issue or trading vehicle. For sure you need to avoid the
fundmentally weak and poor companies (be they the BS-merchants selling moose pasture or
the debt-laden Allied Nevadas, Luna Golds or Gran Colombias that are in the process of black
hole collapse under their own financial gravity), but once you have that exercise out of the way
and looming financial debt isn't an issue, at the moment I don't see why how a competitively
priced, well managed and fundamentally undervalued McEwen Mining (MUX) beats out the
flabby, poorly managed and perenially disappointing Great Panther (GPR.to) (GPL), just for two
examples of personally preferred and hated stocks (I have a list of the first type, a loooong list
of the second). If gold goes to U$1,300/oz they're both going to fly, period.
So let's not fool ourselves: I the stockpicker can cheer Company XYZ and jeer Company ABC,
but under the present market circumstances for miners it's nearly all hot air. Perhaps you the
reader get some peripheral entertainment value from the jolly banter, but that's about all I can
offer you on company specifics with an open and honest heart.
2

But it's not all gloom
The reason there are plenty of changes in the portfolio this week is about the general strategic
positioning of a whole portfolio, not about the relative merits of its components. What I see in
the metals market today can be boiled down to the following:
1) It's still all about gold. I'd make a potential exception for copper and therefore the derivative
industrial metals that track Cu, but essentially the world of digging metal out the ground is still
behest to the slings and arrows of gold's outrageous fortunes.
2) Long-term nothing has changed, I'm still bullish on gold's (thus the sector's) prospects. The
nebulous concept of how long is long-term is an altogether tougher one to answer, of course.
3) However, the near-term looks more interesting now. My catalyst may be the large amount of
cash that's about to drop into my account via the sale of Rio Alto, but the deeper prompt that's
getting me to start the shifting process in the 'Stocks to Follow' list is the better outlook for gold
the metal and how it's traded so far this year.
A couple of weeks ago I ran this chart in IKN304 which shows that although gold's held up
reasonably well against the impressive
How's your metal doing in US dollar terms in 2015?
rise in the value of the US Dollar, it's 2 1.48
far from the only metal to have done 1 0.13
0 so. However, that was considering
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wealth (or value), it's done far better -7
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And please note that word "guess" there too, it was chosen deliberately. Because while we're
on the subject of not fooling each other let's state clearly that guesswork is the baseline and
starting point of all financial forecasting by everyone, no exceptions. What happens is that
some people are better at guessing than others and as a result reap more fame and fortune
than peers. Her or him, they're getting paid millions in salaries and bonuses due to their track
record of high percentage, insightful and educated guesswork. Me, I'm trying to work out what
to do with my small pile of money and you're paying me less than U$10 per week to read my
thoughts. That's what's called 'necessary context'. IKN ran all sorts of guesses for 1q15 but at
least the two majors ones (see the top of IKN294 for a reminder) worked out well. The major
guess for 2q15 is that gold's going to do relatively well in the market period and I want to
lengthen my risk exposure. That will come in stages, today's as seen in the next segment is
reaping cash, covering the only active short and buying a new position. There are more trades
in the pipeline but first things first so without further ado...
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Selling two, covering one, buying one.
Today I put on my Michael Corleone hat, as there are several strands of family business to
settle. To cater for the TL:DR readership, 'Stocks to Follow' is getting an overhaul via the
following trades.
1) Selling Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) (RIOM)
2) Selling GoldQuest Mining (GQC.v)
3) Covering the Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) (FSM) short position
4) Buying Phoscan Chemicals (FOS.to)
What follows are comments short or long on each trade, depending on how much previous
flagging I've given out already. The main section is about trade 4) the purchase of FOS.to I
plan for next week.
Apart from the successful in/out AR.to move (specific in nature) and a few minor doodlings
round the edges, the portfolio has held its current shape since the latter part of 2014. I now
see junior mining sector attitudes shifting; If we set aside the worst of the all-gonna-die
permabears, the equally annoying to-da-moon permabulls, and concentrate our efforts on the
more reasonable opinions there's been a palpable change in sentiment recently. Gone is the
outright negativity of a market not knowing if the bearish sentiment will ever end, in is a market
that assumes the bottoming-out is now in progress. Now for sure, opinions inside the
"reasonable commentarists" zone is nuanced and varied, some are more bearish and others
more bullish, but as long as there's a logical and cogent argument backing up the calls, I'm
okay with most of them.
1) Selling Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) (RIOM)
This is the easy one. As noted in the Flash update of Thursday morning (see appendix 1) I
expected to be fully out of the stock this weekend. As it happened I only sold a small
percentage on Thursday at a price that was a bit too low for my taste and just before the price
went a lot lower. So yes it's time to liquidate here, but I'm not going to take any old stupid
price either.
In my mind's eye as I wrote the Flash update last week (well, the evening before in fact) I had
$3.60 as a reasonable out price, with $3.50 at a pinch. Quite honestly, with gold moving well
early Thursday I though it would have been a very easy out, which goes to show how good I
4

am (not) about near-term sentiment trading. So feel free to shake your fist at me, as I said I'd
be sold by now and I'm not sold out yet. Given the right price (let's say $3.50+, I'll be gone by
IKN308
2) Selling GoldQuest Mining (GQC.v)
This is a simple case of cutting the dead wood. This failed trade hasn't "fit" into the portfolio for
a long time, the exploration project hasn't come up with much and to date I've only held on
because it's drilling again, with the chance of it showing something this time that it hasn't last
time. Today's the today to admit my failure, stop casting at hope and move on.
3) Covering the Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) (FSM) short position
This decision was flagged a to a great extent in IKN306 last week. This is about becoming
longer to the market and it's happening at the same time as the Rio Alto sale in order to offset
the temporarily higher level of cash held.
The short trade in FVI hasn't been a failure, but it's now reasonably clear to me that the market
isn't about to sell the stock just because it's set for a fallow-ish 2015. This company (rightly I'd
say) is considered at or near the top of the small/medium silver operators space, the argument
I've always had is on its valuation, not its execution.
As things stand it looks as though I'm going to escape this short with a minor (pre-commish,
pre-lend) profit. So be it, but in real terms it will go down as a wash trade. Its true beenfit has
been helping me see my First Majestic (AG) position through a rough period and kept me
holding on there. Pure psychology of course, I am not immune.
4) Buying Phoscan Chemicals (FOS.to)
This is the new news and arrival for the 'Stocks to Follow' list, so it makes up the majority of
today's piece. Let's start with a link to the company website (8) and share price chart:
A superior "share priced less than cash" trade, a "New Land Grab" stock
Back in IKN303 came the extended strategy note "The new land grab: Be part of it". That day,
the only company mentioned in direct context as a new trade was Legend Gold (LGN.v) and we
opened it as a very small position too. Along with LGN, the concept of getting long on cheap
and beaten down asset plays was extended to companies already owned, such as Lara
Exploration (LRA.v) and semi-related Starcore (SAM.to).
We then expanded on the idea a little in IKN304, but in that edition and since then, no trades
that fit the strategy have come up opn these pages. That changes today, because Phoscan
(FOS.to) is my idea of a solid trade that fits right into the new strategy. Here's the basic share
structure via our normal top box:
5

Shares out: 152.051m
Options: 3.325m
Warrants: Zero
Fully diluted shares: 155.376m
Current share price: C$0.275
Market Cap: C$41.81m
Approx working cap per S/O: 36c
All prices are in Canadian Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.80=CAD$1
NB: For this analysis, all dollar values are in Canadian Dollars (CAD) unless otherwise stated
A simple story: FOS.to has cash
The final line of the above structure box isn't the whole story here, but it's at least half of it and
it certainly forms the basis as to why this is an attractive trade option. As at October 31st 2014,
FOS had CAD$55.955m in cash. Liabilities are basically zero, so that's your working cap, too.
The company claims its Martison phosphate property is worth $96m and that's booked as a
fixed asset. That's debatable but for our purposes we can totally ignore this part of the set up
because it's the cash position that makes FOS.to interesting.
The company has an underlying burn rate of around $150,000 per month, which is about as
low as you could ever want from such a company so that would suggests straight cash at
around $750k lower as at today end March 2015. As the quarter ending January is the annual
and there are auditors to pay (maybe some extras here and there too), let's round that to
$800k and assume a cash sub-total of $55.15m.
But before we get a final cash position we need to subtract some more, because FOS.to has
been spending its cash on one specific item; share buybacks. Since October 31st has run the
following in buybacks (here you see the block cancellation dates only and how many shares
were cancelled on each date, the purchases often came in smaller packages between the
official cancellation dates):
FOS.to: Buybacks since last reported qtr
Date Shares Cancelled
Nov 14th 2014 580,500
Dec 1st 2014 473,000
Dec 16th 2014 464,010
Jan 5th 2015 446,000
Jan14th 2015 63,500
Jan 30th 2015 433,500
Feb 18th 2015 399,520
Mar 2nd 2015 56,500
Mar13th 2015 73,500
Mar 27th 2015 499,500
TOTAL 3,489,530
Up to the cut-off date of its next quarterly report (the annual, ended Jan 31st 2015) FOS.to had
cancelled 2,460,510 shares. To this weekend that's up to 3,489,530 shares which means its
current share count is 152,050,783.
If we consider the price chart above, it's clear that apart from that spike on the first trading day
of March (a PDAC thing?) the stock has been a steady trader at between 28c and 29c. Let's tale
as conservative a view as is reasonable and assume FOS.to bought back every single one of
those 3.49m shares at 29c apiece. That means it's spent $1.012m on buybacks since its last
reported quarter. Therefore, the IKN best estimate for its cash position as at this weekend is
$54.13m, which we round down to $55.1m. As at this weekend, FOS.to has a share price of
6

27.5c, which means its market cap is currently $41.81m.
There, in a nutshell, is why FOS.to is interesting. It's a company that's running a tickover burn
around $1.8m per year, it has a phosphate project that may or may not be worth something at
some point down the line, but aside from the low burn rate it has this as the most simple and
compelling of reasons for ownership:
• Share price: 27.5c
• Net cash per share: 36.2c
And theoretically, that's a (pre-commish) 31.6% upside on cash alone. Not bad.
As this chapter's title says, the reasons to like FOS are almost as simple as they come in the
junior world. The main asset may not be that great but it has more cash that its current market
cap, i.e. it's trading for less than cash. However, FOS has been in the "trading less than cash"
bracket for literally years, so why the sudden interest now and why am I keen on it all of a
sudden? For that, we delve deeper.
The further attraction of FOS.to as an investment
So far so good but there are other "trading for less than cash" entities out there, it's hardly
unique on this score. However FOS.to brings other elements to the table that make it more
interesting than most and here's the next little list of things for consideration:
1) A high level of cash in absolute terms. With around CAD$55m in its treasury, FOS.to has a
significant warchest to play with and that's what we want from a company that, potentially at
least, invest its cash into the current beaten-down land asset market. This isn't one of those
stocks with $2.5m in the bank and 150m shares trading at 2c, those are the ones that simply
die more slowly than their zero-treasury peers.
2) A track record of running a low burn rate for many quarters (which also points ot its now
proven corporate patience), which means its current asset advantage isn't going to be watered
away in the space of just a a few quarters.
3) A potentially valuable asset that's currently being valued at zero (that could indeed be worth
nothing in the end, but it's also the epitome of a no-lose bet). This is a secondary aspect of FOS
that I'm not banking on as I buy in, but needs at least a line of recognition today.
4) But above all and the one that earns your author's seal of approval, the continued share
buybacks we've seen these last few months. The pattern of the last quarters screams financial
acumen and smarts; FOS.to has the obvious inside track opportunity of paying less than cash
for an issue and is using it to the best of its ability. To see the company buying its own shares
instead of something else (neither is it pressured into the "do something!" trap), thereby
guaranteeing that it is adding value to the shares left outstanding (that guarantee being the
laws of mathematics, not some sketchy CEO's promise).
The drawbacks
Does this sound too good to be true? For sure the "buy for less than cash" idea is a pitch, and it
the cynical among us (include me in) shouldn't be slow to ask just why that nice Mr. Market
apparently allows us to buy something that's demonstrably worth 36c for just 27.5c. So once
the hardcore efficient market theortists have stopped jumping up and down and have screamed
at us to "Get on now!!!", three exclamation marks de rigeuer, the saner among us consider the
drawbacks to FOS.to as a potential. I'm going to leave aside the corporate-wide risks of
suddenly being ripped off by a company, or the management team making a new and dumb
strategic decision of some type or other. That's because they've shown themselves to be ultra-
cautious with their money already and the length of time they've been quietly waiting on the
sidelines gives reason for reasonable trust, at least.
7

So to the drawbacks as seen today and there are two that I think merit mention. One minor,
one that needs more careful consideration.
The minor: The low burn rate and the buying back of shares by the corporation at below cost is
very prudent and laudable, but in the real world there is a slight net dilution to asset value per
share. To illustrate the math we can apply reductio ad absurdum and if we consider that
today's FOS.to continues for five years and...
• FOS.to buys back shares at 29c each at a TSX rules maximum rate of 10% per year
• Its burn remains at around $1.8m per year
...at the end of the five year period, each share is backed by around 31c of cash, rather than
the 36.2c cash of this weekend. In other words, the math theory points to a company that's
losing 1c per share per year. In even more words, the advantage of buying back at the current
reduces overall dilution, but even considering the low cash burn rate of FOS.to it's still not
enough to fully counter it. Which means that even the patient approach of FOS.to has a ticking
clock somewhere and it will need to do "something" at some point in order to create value.
There's no hurry but in the long run we are indeed all dead, Mr Keynes.
As for the major drawback, it's the usual one in these situations and connected to the minor
matter; Patience required. This is not a company that's going to pander to the retail market's
desire for news and progress and growth and promises of a bright and thrusting future. If
you've got this far into today's IKN piece on FOS.to and are starting to consider it as a
reasonable investment potential, you may get lucky and find yourself buying in just days before
something BIG happens but it's far more likely that you're going to have a period of months
and even years on your hands without much news or action from the stock.
For instance, I happen to know that Brent Cook owns and likes this stock, but he's done both of
those since 2009. If I have this right, he bought in at 33c when the underlying cash position
valued FOS.to at somewhere around 40c per share, so he's been watching for six years (hear
that? Six years) without much happening. Think about it.
However it's not just a case of saying to yourself, "Yeah well okay, I may be holding a while"
and once you've got that latent negative settled in your head pressing the buy button, because
the active negative in the mix is opportunity cost. Put a thousand or ten thousand or a hundred
thousand into FOS.to and that's cash you're tying up. Sell them before the market has revalued
the shares and by definition you're selling them too cheaply, just as the person who sold you
your "way too cheap" shares did. Be aware of the circumstances, of the possible scenarios in
which the market starts popping and suddenly there are juniors adding double-digit gains all
around you, while the conservative plays such as FOS.to lag behind. If that's going to annoy
you come the time, then perhaps this trade isn't for you.
Discussion and conclusion
This bit is highlighted as it's the thing that matters: I'm buying Phoscan (FOS.to) next
week and it will be a part of the 'Stocks to Follow' list as from next week. There is
no reason whatsoever to pay more than 29c for a position in this stock and I'll be
aiming to buy in for around 28c, which seems a reasonable get. There's no formal price
target set on the stock at the moment, but if you'd like a rough guide then let's aim at the 36c
liquid asset value per share. There will be a time limit on this trade, however.
The purchase of FOS.to is all about the "New Land Grab" initiative that kicked off in IKN303.
This year 2015 offers a strong theoretical advantage to the small player such as I, in that we
can buy the small, unloved unwanted, out of fashion properties and projects while the large
miners money is still ignoring them, much like the bottom of the last cycle in the late 1990s and
early 2000s. The theory of "buy low, hold, sell high as the cycle moves upwards" is simple
enough but when it comes to being a smaller-scale player there are a few extra disadvantages
to overcome. One of the main ones is dilution, because "new land grab" idea of purported on
8

these pages (and others, I'm not claiming innovation or a patent on the idea) is all fine and
good, but as previously discuissed it suits the Ross Beaty's of this world more than the public
company shareholder buyer. As we saw with his brilliant Lumina gameplan for the approx 15
years to 2014, Mr Beaty or anyone in a similar position can buy six figure or seven figure ticket
price land assets outright and then can throw them private limited company structures with
virtual zero burn and nobody to answer to.
But when your vehicle is necessarily public, complications can arise. Let's take First Mining
Finance (the soon to be FF.v) as an example, the company currently being set up by Keith
Neumeyer of First Majestic (FR.to) fame and about to float that's designed as a "Mineral Bank".
Yes it's doing the right kind of thing at the right time, but being public one wonders about its
need to to burn admin cash. Also, how will the new FF.v justify itself to people just like me,
annoying and petty retail yappers who at some point will demand that management and
officers "do something" in order to justify their monthly paychecks? And then at some point the
money may run out, which means a new share raise. Now that might happen in non-dilutive
circumstances as FF.v moves to secure new properties at a higher share price, but then again it
may not and we the equity buyers may feel as though we're just paying other people's salaries
(again). I honestly don't know whether I'm being unfair to FF.v with my little sketch here (and
I'm sure the company will tell me that I am being unfair), but it's not a difficult scenario to
conjure up and it all means dilution of potential profits as an equity-level holder.
That's not the case with FOS.to. For one thing, anybody who's been long the stock for the last
three or five years will know that the FOS CEO Stephen Case doesn't care about playing the
promo game. For another we can look to the combo of the low burn that's majority offset by
those smart buybacks and it's as close to the Beaty-type "private holding company" concept as
I think I can get on the open market. We know that FOS is looking for smart things to do with
its cash and that's also what I want to hear in 2015. As a final bonus, considering it's such a
"quiet" stock on a corporate level it's fairly well traded, so getting in (and eventually out) is far
easier than many of the tinycaps.
This new position will make it to the 'Stocks to Follow' list as from next week and will sit nicely
alongside my Starcore (SAM.to). SAM.to gets to collect assets (American Consolidated, Creston
Moly) but won't suffer from "do something" thanks to its small but positive free cash flow
mining operation. Phoscan adds another string to our bow as the portfolio alters course and
positions for the new market circumstances.
There will be more trades to come, too. The positioning has only just begun
Stocks to Follow
A strange week. Just one of our open positions managed to register a weekly win (AG) and just
two others remained unchanged (TGZ.to, SAM.to). That means the other eleven registered a
weekly loss and that would normally mean bad news, but as it happened just about every loss
was either just a penny or two or a percentage point or two (or both). Taking it strictly week-
over-week, there really wasn't that much damage done.
We currently have 14 open positions in our Stocks to Follow list, one less than our self-imposed
maximum. Six are in the green, eight are in the red. There will be fewer positions this time next
week.
9

Current
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
Top Picks
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to SELLING C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.33 44.8% now selling
Recommended long positions (in current order of preference)
McEwen Mining MUX STR buy U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.03 -5.5% Added Mar'15, top value
Dalradian Res DNA.to buy C$0.64 27-oct-13 C$0.96 50.0% Nov'14 tgt $1.25, top Au expl
B2Gold BTO.to buy C$2.32 12-sep-14 C$1.99 -14.2% Dependent on Au price moves
Teranga Gold TGZ.to buy C$0.55 15-feb-15 C$0.65 18.2% New position, 83c tgt
Starcore Intl SAM.to buy C$0.12 10-jan-15 C$0.15 25.0% Small Pos., added, tgt 19c
Focus Ventures FCV.v hold C$0.23 01-jul-12 C$0.24 4.3% tgt 50c, good finance news
First Majestic AG hold U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$5.87 -44.1% Now in pair trade with FSM
Minera IRL IRL.to hold C$0.27 22-jul-12 C$0.06 -77.8% Waiting for financing news
NovaCopper NCQ.to hold C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.77 -26.7% small Cu play low vols, hold
Lara Expl. LRA.v hold C$1.15 08-apr-12 C$0.41 -64.3% solid biz model, LT hold
Recommended short positions
Fortuna Silver FSM SELLING U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.87 6.1% In pair trade with AG
Smaller/Riskier
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v SELLING C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% may sell soon
Legend Gold LGN.v spec buy C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.065 -23.5% new spec buy, v small trade
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'14 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'14 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'14 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'14 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 closed positions in appendices below
Now for some notes on current basket stocks.
Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) (RIOM): Selling. As noted above and as per the Flash update of
Thursday (see appendix 1) I thought it would be fully sold by now. It's not, because after
selling just a few it occurred to me that there's no reason to sell at any old price just because.
The disposal of the erstwhile Top Pick will continue however.
Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) and First Majestic (FR.to) (AG) Pair Trade: For the last
time, the tracker chart starting from
the date the pair trade was squared
off and began, November 16th 2014:
AG is +15%, FSM is -16%, our pair is
31% to the good. I'll take that. As
noted above, we're losing the Fortuna
Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) short this week
so as from IKN308 next Sunday, we'll
have to stop pretending that AG has
been a success and go back to the
cruel reality of highlighting just how
badly it's done since inception.
Yes AG has done better than most
silver plays in 2015 and that's a good
thing, but nothing takes away from the badly-timed original purchase and then addition I made
10

in mid-2014, the cause of the heavy percentage (and absolute terms cash) loss so far.
The 2015 performance to date gives some reason to be cheerful and in this current improving
market for gold (therefore silver) it's looking like one of the better ones to ride, therefore it
stays for a while yet.
The Copper Basket
After thirteen weeks of 2015 The Copper Basket is showing a 4.78% loss to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/15 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Capstone Min. CS.to 2.03 381.95 473.62 1.24 -38.9%
2 Reservoir Min. RMC.v 3.96 47.55 195.43 4.11 3.8%
3 NGEx Resources NGQ.to 1.17 187.71 178.32 0.95 -18.8%
4 Nevada Copper NCU.to 1.65 80.5 143.29 1.78 7.9%
5 Copper Fox CUU.v 0.135 402.96 104.77 0.26 92.6%
6 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.27 173.65 64.25 0.37 37.0%
7 Western Copper WRN.to 0.68 93.68 56.21 0.60 -11.8%
8 NovaCopper NCQ.to 0.58 60.15 46.32 0.77 32.8%
9 Hot Chili Ltd HCH.ax 0.16 333.11 39.97 0.12 -21.9%
10 Panoro Minerals PML.v 0.295 220.25 39.65 0.18 -39.0%
11 Regulus Res REG.v 0.35 56.39 16.07 0.285 -18.6%
12 Metminco MNC.ax 0.008 1822.6 9.11 0.005 -37.5%
13 AQM Copper AQM.v 0.06 139.24 9.05 0.065 8.3%
14 Catalyst Copper CCY.v 0.305 31.39 6.59 0.21 -31.1%
15 Coro Mining COP.to 0.045 159.37 4.78 0.03 -33.3%
NB: HCH.ax & MNC.ax priced in AUD$, rest CAD$ Portfolio avg -4.78%
Just three weekly winners to reprot on the 4% The Copper Basket 2015, weekly evolution
week (NCU.to, ARG.to, AQM.v), then three 2%
others stayed unchanged (PML.v, HCH.ax,
0%
MNC.ax). The other nine dropped, with the
-2%
biggest percentage-terms losses incurred by
-4%
Coro Mining (COP.to down 14.3%), Catalyst
-6%
Copper (CCY.v down 10.6%) and Western
-8%
Copper & Gold (WRN.to down 10.5%). As the
-10%
chart to your right shows, the evolution of the
Copper Basket this year remains stubbornly
negative. On the other hand, it's hardly an
unmitigated meltdown disaster, so far at least.
11
ht4naj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1bef ht8 ht51 dn22 ts1ram ht8 ht51 dr32 ht92
source: IKN calcs

We're now 13 weeks and counting on the section, which means a quarter of 2015 has flown
past already (my how it flies) and that in turn gives us the excuse to run our first quarterly
overview chart of Copper Basket components and get a visual handle on the winners and losers
from our bunch:
Copper Basket Components after 13 weeks
100% 92.6%
80%
60%
37.0%
40% 32.8%
20% 8.3% 7.9%
3.8%
0%
-20% -11.8%
-18.6%-18.8%
-25.0%
-40% -31.1%-33.3%
-37.5%-38.9%-39.0%
-60%
12
v.UUC ot.GRA ot.QCN v.MQA ot.UCN v.CMR ot.NRW v.GER ot.QGN xa.HCH v.YCC ot.POC xa.CNM ot.SC v.LMP
source: TSX, ASX, IKN stats and calcs
Top performer in the first quarter by quite a distance was Copper Fox (CUU.v), benefitting from
a concerted promo effort. Then come Amerigo (ARG.to) and NovaCopper (NCQ.to), with the
other three winners so far of the minor type. Down at the stinkers' end are Catalyst (CCY.v),
Coro (COP.to), Metminco (MNC.ax), Capstone (CS.to) and Panoro (PML.v), all 30%+ losers in
the quarter. Not good.
To sum up the quarter for our basket, its overall
average has been saved by a move in a serial
offender pump vehicle that magically manages to
claim a $100m+ market cap once again, thanks to
another promo that screams style over substance.
Hardly a strong position or set-up for the rest of the
year, but to our sub-sector's credit it has managed
to withstand a pretty heavy hit on the copper price
without total collapse. Of the lot, ARG.to and its
ability to have secured the financing deal for its
growth project has been the most impressive
achievement, so its 37% YTD win is of merit (and
that's form somebody who cut and ran, remember).
Changing gears, here's how copper the metal
traded and the visual is dominated by the two big
and speculative looking price spikes, particularly
that one above $2.90/lb on Monday. However, the
bears had the last say last week and it must be said
clearly, the drop on Friday didn't look healthy for the sector at all. As I read through Gary
Tanashian's NFTRH weekly earlier this Sunday morning, his call that copper won't interested
him until it's over $3/lb caught my eye, because he's about the smartest chartist I know and
also because it's where I've set my line in the sand, too. A little bias confirmation goes a long
way :-).

So to inventories and as we're nearly at the end of another month (and next week is the
shortened Easter week) here are the long-term inventory tracker charts. The trend is clear, the
question is whether we'0ll see more warehouse inflows this quarter (as in 2013) or whether it's
a spike we can ignore (as in 2014). If you put a gun to my head I'd bet on the former, but even
then it's not much of a clue as to whether the underlying copper stocks are worthy trading
vehicles yet.
Inventories time, here are the regular bullet points:
• Total world copper stocks lost a shaving, but still stayed above 600k. We're down 1,295
metric tonnes (mt) compared to last and at 602,655mt this weekend.
• Shanghai Futures Exchange didn't continue its drop last week, so the potential topping
out process we identified last week now has a ? next to its name. Stocks rose just
slightly but rise they did, up 4,243mt (+1.8%) to 243,592mt. Some of that new bullish
feeling diluted as a result.
• On the other hand, LME warehouses stocks dropped slightly and by roughly the same
amount, down 4,575mt (-1.3%) to finish the week at 337,175mt.
• Comex warehouses dropped a bit, losing 963mt (-4.2%) finish at 21,888mt. Smaller
stuff.
Here's the regular Shanghai-only chart, that shows how the new high level hasn't turned into a
spike-and-drop, we're now three weeks and counting. Watch this space.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014/2015
260000
240000
220000
200000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
13
31'13ceD ht21 ht62 ht9 dr32 ht9 dr32 ht6rpa ht02 ht4yam ht81 ts1enuj ht51 ht92 ht31 ht72 ht01 ht42 ht7 ts12 ht5tco ht91 dn2von ht61 ht03 ht41 ht82 ht11 ht52 ht8 dn22 ht8 dn22
Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Mt Cu
source: Cochilco
Now for some notes on two of our basket components.
NovaCopper (NCQ.to): We watched it run up on thin volumes, it's no surprise therefore to
see it retrace from 90c a couple of weeks ago to 7cc this weekend. As a long I'm a holder, it's
going to need more than a few thousand shares moving the stock 10% either way to make a
difference, though.
21.naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 31.naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 41.naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 51.naj bef ram
Copper inventories, per month 2012-2014
1000000
LME Shanghai Comex
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
source: Cochilco
21.naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 31.naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 41.naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 51.naj bef ram
Mt Cu
LME Shanghai Comex
source: Cochilco

Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): Last week ARG closed its financing deal for its Cauquenes
expansion project (4) that sets the company fair to boost production, with the first benefits
expected to be seen in 4q15. Yes I'm out of the stock, but that won't stop me from re-entering
at a higher price if copper's macro outloook improves.
Copper Fox (CUU.v): No. I'm most definitely not going to get all "told ya so" on you all.
What's more in IKN306 I wrote this about
CUU.v: "If you enjoy the coinflip end of
the junior market or playing psychological
chicken with a manipulating market maker
then be my guest, I'm not going to stop
you", and that's just as true today. It's still
an in-play gambling vehicle, no matter
that it's still massively overvalued at
$100m+ mkt cap.
But it did indeed come back a little
towards reality last week and those 30c
prices disappeared quickly.
Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to): I'm back looking at this stock, thanks to its quarterly
financials filed late Friday evening that show how it's taking care of its cash position and
liquidity. Current assets (nearly all cash/cash eq and guaranteed certificates paying a modicum
of interest) are down to CAD$16.95m and minor liabilities put working cap at $15.7m. This
compares to a current assets position of $23.92m this time last year and basically means
WRN.to burned through $7m in 2014. That's not a bad result considering the size of Casino and
it also includes the community relations program and its ongoing permitting program. WRN
reports the latest as (and I quote):
On November 28, 2014, the Casino Project re-entered the YESAB process after a six-month hold
period to allow for additional consultation with Little Salmon/Carmacks First Nation (“LSCFN”). On
January 23, 2015, YESAB provided its Adequacy Review Report to the Company. This report
outlines the YESAB’s requests for further information before the Casino Project may proceed to
the public screening phase of assessment. Western submitted additional information on March
16, 2015. YESAB will review the additional information and either declare the application
adequate to advance to the screening phase or request further information.
In other words, the step-by-step process continues at Casino.
It's not the perfect company, the grade is low and the project's capex hurdle of around $2.5Bn
doens't make for particularly attractive reading in present market circumstances. But, isn't that
just what we (me) want from the
undervalued unloved projects in order
to fit with the 'New Land Grab'
concept? And yes that mine life
average grade doesn't make anyone's
eyes pop out (it's no Timok) but it's
under 43-101, the economic study
holds up and even when we adjust to
the current lower copper price, its IRR
stays over 18%.
With an EV of $50m, it beats Copper
Fox's profile into a cocked hat. Finally,
as we've seen over the last six
months, WRN has this predictable
habit of getting to the 55c/60c level and bouncing back to 70c. We tend to like predictable in
this crazy game.
14

The Low Cost Producer Basket
After 13 weeks, the 2015 Low Cost Producer Basket is showing a 1.69% gain to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/15 Shares out Mkt Cap (Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Goldcorp GG 18.52 812 14.96 18.42 -0.5%
2 Barrick ABX 10.75 1164.67 13.03 11.19 4.1%
3 Newmont NEM 18.90 499 11.09 22.23 17.6%
4 Franco Nevada FNV 49.19 156.08 7.48 47.94 -2.5%
5 Silver Wheaton SLW 20.33 357.39 7.01 19.62 -3.5%
6 Agnico Eagle AEM 24.89 173.43 5.00 28.84 15.9%
7 Kinross KGC 2.82 1114.5 2.63 2.36 -16.3%
8 Buenaventura BVN 9.56 254.19 2.58 10.16 6.3%
9 B2Gold BTG 1.62 948.9 1.48 1.56 -3.7%
10 Pan American PAAS 9.20 151.41 1.39 9.17 -0.3%
all prices in U$, using NYSE ticker prices Portfolio avg 1.69%
Nine stocks out of the ten lost ground, with the only winner coming from Barrick (ABX) that
managed to kick back against the Thursday/Friday weakness due to its own slice of good news.
Which means that after a quarter of the year the basket is just hanging in above breakeven,
but also means that six out of our ten components are underwater.
The Low Cost Producer Basket: Weekly performance
and comparative to GDX control
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
15
ts13ceD ht4naj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1bef ht8 ht51 dr42 ts1ram ht8 ht51 dr32 ht92
basket
gdx control
source: Google Finance, IKN calcs
Low Cost Basket: Percentage difference between
basket and GDX control, 2014
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
-0.50%
-1.00%
-1.50%
-2.00%
-2.50%
-3.00%
ts13ceD ht4naj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1bef ht8 ht51 dr42 ts1ram ht8 ht51 dr32 ht92
|
source: ikn calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq data
Barrick (ABX): The god news here came from Zambia, as that country's government seems to
have stepped back from the imposition of its crazyhigh royalty rate hike plan that would have
seen royalties jump to 20% from their current 6%. Here's Reuters with more (5) and how it's
been affected ABX:
TORONTO, March 27 (Reuters) - Barrick Gold Corp , the world's biggest gold producer by output,
will continue operating its Lumwana copper mine in Zambia while awaiting changes to the
country's mineral royalty tax, the company said on Friday.
Barrick had said it would suspend operations after Zambia hiked mineral royalties for open pit
mines to 20 percent from 6 percent in January. Major staff cuts to Lumwana's 4,000 workers were

planned for March, Toronto-based Barrick had said.
"We are encouraged by the President's recent statement and will carry on operating at Lumwana
while we await details on the government's proposed solution," Barrick spokesman Andy Lloyd
said in an email in response to a query from Reuters.
The new royalty plan, which has rattled unions and mining companies in Zambia, Africa's second
largest copper producer, also increased the royalty tax rate on underground mines to 8 percent
from 6 percent.
Zambian President Edgar Lungu on Wednesday directed the finance and mining ministers to
change royalties on mining firms by April 8, saying the government could consider temporarily
reverting to the 2014 tax regime as a new rate is negotiated.
The news was already filtering through the jungledrums by Thursday, which can be seen in this
five day price chart.
Overall, it looks as though ABX's threat to shhut down the mine and leave the country that's
been in place since December has worked the trick.
Franco Nevada (FNV): FNV reported its 4q14 and year on Wednesday evening (6) , with the
numbers generally accepted as in line by those who follow the stock more carefully than I. But
as is often the case, the filing gave rise to a liquidation opportunity and FNV dropped heavily in
real and comparative terms against peers.
16

Conclusion
IKN307 is done, we end with bullet points:
• I've had a horrid case of writer's block all weekend. The result is a seriously abridged
edition of the weekly, for which I can only apologize There are some days when the
thing virtually writes itself, others when it feels like pulling teeth to get words down on
the page. This edition wasn't even one of the latter ones, but much worse than even
that. It got to the point with the Regional Risk section where I was totally blocked on,
so in the end I'm just going to chicken out and defer until next week. On consideration,
I think my mind is too concerned with the moves in the portfolio and the concrete
trades (three exits, one entrance), it's not so often the table changes by four names in
the space of one week. Also, downloading and then reading the first 50 pages of
Fyodor's 'Notes...' last night didn't help. I started it to try and snap myself out of the
funk, but to no avail. Writer's block is high frustration, but the (lack of) results suffered
by readers is tangible. I can only apologize again and pledge a better job next week.
• Today comes confirmation of the sale in Rio Alto (RIO.to) (RIOM), the clearly flagged
decision to cover the Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) short and the smaller scale decision
to throw in the towel on the long-time loser GoldQuest (GQC.v)
• But the main change today is the addition of Phoscan Chemicals (FOS.to) to out 'Stocks
to Follow' list (and that I'll be buying next week). This one is the next step in setting
the portfolio towards the cheap land asset plays that were first discussed a month ago.
FOS.to has cash and has been looking to deploy it for quite a while. For me, 2015 will
give the company the right window, but in the meantime its prudent share buyback
policy and below cash value shares give it a strong floor at the current price level. Yes it
could go down by a few pennies, but the risk is stacked heavily to the upside.
• If I were braver I'd buy copper stocks at this point, with (in order of appeal) RMC.v,
and WRN.to on my radar. ARG.to too, I suppose. But I'm not brave.
• Today is Palm Sunday. I wish you all a peaceful Easter week.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Otto
17

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/
(2) http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/600
(3) http://www.phoscan.ca/
(4) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/amerigo-closes-bank-financing-cauquenes-113000636.html
(5) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/barrick-keep-operating-zambia-copper-165234192.html
(6) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/franco-nevada-reports-strong-end-210000986.html
Appendix 1: Flash update dated Thursday March 26th 2015
Good Thursday morning, just under an hour before the opening bell and for the first time in many days in South Peru, a
sunny morning. El Niño has been having fun along the Pacific coast of South America.
Selling Rio Alto (RIO.to) (RIOM)
I sell my RIO.to shares either today Thursday or tomorrow Friday, but they'll be gone by this weekend. I've waited for
the gold price to go back North of U$1,200/oz after watching through its minor sag (didn't really have much doubt that it
would recover) and now that it has, it's time to liquidate this position. The move back to the $3.50/$3.60 range in the last
couple of days was healthy and shows interest in the RioTahoe story hasn't faded.
The precise sell will depend on my gut feeling (yep, trying to be far too cute on this right until the end) and I'm probably
a seller tomorrow rather than today. A lot depends on how it trades in the next couple of hours, market sentiment etc.
It's been a great ride, both up and down, but having originally bought in the 50c to 60c range and loaded up the majority
of the position at $1, ultimately it's also been a profitable ride. I wish the New RioTahoe company and all its
shareholders the best of fortune as I wave goodbye.
Other news
In other news, feedback from the Focus Ventures (FCV.v) note this week has been interestnig and falls into three
general piles. One pile liked the photos. Another thought I was dismissing the threat to the share price from the debt
debt too lightly. The last group thought I was being way too nervous about the threat of the debt deal to the share price
(with "whimpey" being my fave feedback word so far).
The photos aside, if I'm getting criticism from either side of the spectrum that probably means I've pitched my opinion
just right.
Enjoy your Thursday.
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2014
Closed in 2014 closed close price
Fortuna Silver FVI.to jan'14 C$2.80 23-dic-13 C$3.19 13.9% small ST trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to jan'14 C$2.06 07-jun-13 C$2.30 11.7% trading position finally closed
Network Expl. NET.v feb'14 C$0.01 22-jul-12 C$0.005 -50.0% position closed, did nothing
Tahoe Resources TAHO feb'14 U$13.10 08-abr-13 U$21.72 -65.8% short closed due to reality
Darwin Res DAR.v mar'14 C$0.10 14-jul-12 C$0.045 -55.0% tiny risk play dropped
B2Gold BTO.to mar'14 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.35 9.1% closed to free up capital
Pretium Res PVG mar'14 U$5.38 22-nov-13 U$6.50 -20.8% short closed as port longer
Gold Res Corp GORO may'14 U$5.07 26-ene-14 U$4.12 16.7% took profit
Bear Creek Min BCM.v may'14 C$1.63 23-mar-14 C$2.05 25.8% Took profit, sm near-term win
Eco Oro Min. EOM.to aug'14 C$0.48 22-sep-13 C$0.26 -45.8% sold small loser to make room
True Gold TGM.v sep'14 C$0.395 02-feb-14 C$0.41 3.8% M&A won't happen, sold
Santacruz Silver SCZ.v sep'14 C$1.04 26-ene-14 C$0.86 -17.3% silver/M&A spec, rel. small
Timmins Gold TGD nov'14 U$1.38 09-abr-14 U$0.99 -28.3% failed trade, sell, raise cash
Kinross Gold KGC nov'14 U$2.90 20-oct-14 U$2.15 -25.9% V small trade, didn't work, chau
Salazar Res SRL.v hold C$0.28 02-mar-14 C$0.145 -48.2% lost China sponsor
18

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2013
Closed in 2013 closed close price
USA Graphite USGT feb'13 U$0.93 08-ene-13 U$0.17 81.7% short tgt made/trade closed
Lachlan Star LSA.to feb'13 C$1.50 30-sep-12 C$0.95 -36.7% sold to reduce port risk
United Silver USC.to mar'13 C$0.21 28-oct-12 C$0.095 -54.8% small Ag sector trade, failed
Aurcana Corp AUN.v apr'13 C$1.07 11-nov-12 C$0.55 -48.6% closed on poor YE results
Gold Res Corp GORO apr'13 U$14.11 25-ene-13 U$9.38 33.5% short tgt made/trade closed
Marlin Gold MLN.v apr'13 C$0.075 10-feb-13 C$0.065 -13.3% closed trade
Bear Creek BCM.v may'13 C$2.58 01-abr-13 C$2.40 -7.0% near-term, time ran out
Lupaka Gold LPK.to may'13 C$1.12 23-oct-11 C$0.32 -71.4% towel thrown in
Tahoe Resources TAHO may'13 U$18.62 08-abr-13 U$14.70 21.1% took profit on ST short
OceanaGold OGC.to jun'13 C$3.03 16-sep-12 C$1.18 -61.1% sold on gold drop
IMPACT Silver IPT.v jun'13 C$1.14 13-ene-13 C$0.62 -45.6% sold on silver drop
Duran Ventures DRV.v jun'13 C$0.045 10-may-13 C$0.025 -44.4% ST trade never worked
Plata Latina PLA.v jun'13 C$0.79 10-abr-12 C$0.13 -83.5% closed
Bellhaven BHV.v jun'13 C$0.065 03-jun-13 C$0.12 84.6% closed ST trade
B2Gold BTO.to aug'13 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.44 12.1% sold 1/2 to raise cash
Colossus Min. CSI.to aug'13 C$0.72 24-jul-13 C$0.79 9.7% closed thru nerves on future
Pretium Res PVG.to aug'13 C$8.20 11-jun-13 C$10.14 23.7% closed to raise cash
Bear Creek BCM.v sep'13 C$2.06 30-may-13 C$2.20 6.8% sold on pol risk decision
MAG Silver MVG oct'13 U$7.00 12-sep-13 U$5.62 19.6% near-term short
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'13 U$9.52 03-may-13 U$4.98 47.7% short tgt made, covered
AQM Copper AQM.v oct'13 C$0.31 16-oct-11 C$0.125 -59.7% closed failed trade
First Majestic AG nov'13 U$11.51 07-nov-13 U$10.50 8.8% v near term short, closed
Fortuna Silver FSM nov'13 U$4.00 07-nov-13 U$3.68 8.0% v near term short, closed
Primero PPP nov'13 U$5.70 07-nov-13 U$5.75 -0.9% v near term short, closed
Starcore Intl SAM.to nov'13 C$0.235 08-sep-13 C$0.17 -27.7% ST trade didn't work, sm loss
B2Gold BTO.to dec'13 C$2.22 28-nov-12 C$2.16 -2.7% closed ST trade to raise cash
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2012
Closed in 2012 closed close PPS
Soltoro SOL.v jan'12 C$0.87 07-nov-11 C$0.94 8.0% cash moved to BCM.v
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to feb'12 C$0.84 13-oct-10 C$0.98 16.7% trade closed on ELG.v offer
Minefinders MFN feb'12 U$11.68 17-nov-11 U$14.80 26.7% target made, trade closed
Iron Creek IRN.v mar'12 C$0.58 26-sep-10 C$0.31 -46.6% time up on small bad trade
U.S. Silver USA.to apr'12 C$2.18 15-mar-12 C$1.86 -14.7% ST trade no good, cut loss
Augusta Res. AZC.to may'12 C$3.10 29-jan-12 C$2.07 -33.2% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Bellhaven BHV.v may'12 C$0.50 22-sep-10 C$0.28 -44.0% new mgmt not impressive
Zincore Metals ZNC.to may'12 C$0.325 29-jul-11 C$0.17 -47.7% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Soltoro SOL.v may'12 C$0.70 18-mar-11 C$0.41 -41.4% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
U.S. Silver USA.to aug'12 C$1.78 27-jul-12 C$1.36 -23.6% fail ST trade close pre split
Estrella Gold EST.v aug'12 C$0.91 27-mar-11 C$0.14 -84.6% Closed on port realignment
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'12 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.32 397.2% sell call $6.17/ Mar25
Strait Minerals SRD.v oct'12 C$0.125 09-dec-11 C$0.12 -4.0% closing coverage til FY13
Sunward Res SWD.to oct'12 C$1.47 13-mar-11 C$1.21 -17.7% sold, took loss
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'12 U$21.47 09-sep-12 U$17.40 19.0% Short trade closed
Yellowhead Min. YMI.to nov'12 C$1.00 01-apr-12 C$0.63 -37.0% sold, took loss
Primero Mining PPP nov'12 U$7.26 07-oct-12 U$6.73 7.3% Short trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v nov'12 C$3.38 07-nov-11 C$3.72 10.1% Took small profit
Vena Resources VEM.to dec'12 C$0.70 31-may-09 C$0.18 -74.3% Failed trade (caps F)
Galway Res GWY.v dec'12 C$2.19 24-nov-12 C$2.30 5.0% closed good ST arb trade
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2011
Closed in 2011 closed close PPS
Sunward Res SWD.v jan'11 C$1.05 21-nov-10 C$1.63 55.2% target made, trade closed
Serengeti Res SIR.v mar'11 C$0.245 05-dec-10 C$0.285 16.3% sold pre-tgt, ST trade fail
Fronteer Gold FRG apr'11 U$2.37 03-may-09 U$15.24 543.0% buyout, trade closed
Minefinders MFN apr'11 U$9.09 07-nov-10 U$16.89 85.8% target made, trade closed
Metalline Min. MMG may'11 U$1.04 26-jan-11 U$0.89 -14.4% exit, resource disappointed
Peregrine Met PGM.to jul'11 C$0.87 06-mar-11 C$2.60 198.9% buyout offer, closed
Dynasty Metals DMM.to jul'11 C$4.20 03-may-09 C$2.85 -32.1% Sold. Fail. Move on.
Aura Silver AUU.v aug'11 C$0.22 13-oct-10 C$0.16 -36.4% Bad pick. Take loss
U.S. Silver USA.v aug'11 C$0.52 26-jan-11 C$0.71 36.5% closed to make room
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'11 C$2.80 12-may-11 C$4.27 52.5% target made, trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v sep'11 C$3.80 27-may-11 C$4.17 9.7% macro sell call victim
Minefinders MFN sep'11 U$14.70 10-aug-11 U$15.15 3.1% macro sell call victim
Great Panther GPR.to sep'11 C$3.03 22-aug-11 C$2.64 -12.9% macro sell call victim
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'11 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.36 400.9% sold 20%, macro sell call
Focus Ventures FCV.v nov'11 C$0.40 20-apr-10 C$0.20 -50.0% cut losses, bad trade
Regulus Res. REG.v dec'11 C$1.17 14-aug-11 C$0.52 -55.6% cut on news of poor 43-101
2009 and 2010 closed positions in appendices below
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2010
Closed in 2010 closed close PPS
B2Gold Corp BTO.to Jan'10 C$0.88 08-nov-09 C$1.49 68.2% target made, trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v Jan'10 C$0.18 23-aug-09 C$0.40 122.2% target made, trade closed
MAG Silver MVG mar'10 U$5.60 23-nov-09 U$7.28 30.0% closed in pdac week
Riverside Res RRI.v mar'10 C$0.435 20-sep-09 C$0.60 37.9% closed in pdac week
Amarillo Gold AGC.v mar'10 C$0.81 31-may-09 C$0.70 -13.6% closed in pdac week
B2Gold Corp BTO.to apr'10 C$1.24 18-feb-10 C$1.50 21.0% target made, trade closed
Lumina Copper LCC.v apr'10 C$0.84 14-jun-09 C$1.55 51.2% total position now sold
Troy Resources TRY.to may'10 C$1.10 03-may-09 C$2.25 104.5% sold on negative results
AuEx Ventures XAU.to may'10 C$2.51 24-may-09 C$3.38 34.7% trade closed
Nevada Copper NCU.to jun'10 C$3.27 14-mar-10 C$2.03 -37.9% need to lower Cu exposure
Carpathian Gold CPN.to jun'10 C$0.39 14-mar-10 C$0.35 -10.3% too exposed to cap raising
Amerix PM Corp APM.v jun'10 C$0.065 08-nov-09 C$0.05 -23.1% victim of macro bear
Antares Minerals ANM.v jun'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$2.10 47.9% sold half
Vena Resources VEM.to jun'10 C$0.37 31-may-09 C$0.23 -37.8% sold half
Minera Andes MAI.to sep'10 C$0.75 28-jul-10 C$0.95 26.7% ST trade closed
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to sep'10 C$0.52 01-aug-10 C$0.75 44.2% target made, trade closed
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'10 C$1.45 25-may-10 C$2.01 34.5% target made, trade closed
Blue Sky Uran BSK.v oct'10 C$0.41 19-may-10 C$0.22 -46.3% v small v bad trade closed
Dia Bras Expl DIB.v oct'10 C$0.14 30-aug-09 C$0.35 150.0% target made, trade closed
S. Amer. Silver SAC.to nov'10 C$1.38 24-oct-10 C$1.60 -15.9% loss on short, small fail
Ventana Gold VEN.to nov'10 C$7.92 27-jun-10 C$13.51 70.6% trade closed on buyout
Lumina Copper LCC.v nov'10 C$1.42 11-aug-10 C$3.65 157.0% trade closed
Antares Minerals ANM.v dec'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$8.40 491.5% trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.v dec'10 C$0.69 23-mar-10 C$2.16 213.0% trade closed
Coro Mining COP.to dec'10 C$0.585 03-oct-10 C$1.24 112.0% target made, trade closed
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2009
Closed positions closed closing PPS
Cardero Res CDY/CDU.to May'09 U$1.20 03-May-09 U$0.87 -27.5% sold on negative news
Eastmain Res. ER.to May'09 C$1.04 06-May-09 C$1.315 26.4% trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v May'09 C$0.165 03-May-09 C$0.235 42.4% trade closed
Latin Amer Min. LAT.v May'09 C$0.12 03-May-09 C$0.158 29.2% trade closed
Aquiline Res. AQI.to July'09 C$2.03 16-Jun-09 C$1.68 -17.2% took loss, bad timing
Chariot Resources CHD.to Aug'09 C$0.20 12-Jul-09 C$0.415 107.5% trade closed
Castle Gold CSG.v Sep'09 C$0.64 02-Aug-09 C$0.60 -6.3% ST trade didn't work out
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to Sep'09 C$2.30 12-May-09 C$4.50 95.7% profit taken
Los Andes Copper LA.v Sep'09 C$0.09 21-Jun-09 C$0.09 0% trade closed
Pediment Gold PEZ.to Oct'09 C$0.80 09-Aug-09 C$1.00 25.0% trade closed
Minera Andes MAI.to Oct'09 C$0.68 03-May-09 C$0.71 4.4% too much bad news
Dynasty Metals DMM.to Nov'09 C$4.18 03-May-09 C$6.01 43.8% half sold
Rusoro Mining RML.v Nov'09 C$0.55 03-May-09 C$0.57 3.6% underperformed
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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