IKN #285Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 284, October 26th 2014
Contents
This Week: FOMC Week, Lima visit: Impressions garnered.
Fundamental Analysis: Santacruz Silver (SCZ.v) 3q14 production numbers, Minera IRL
(MIRL.L), (IRL.to) meeting.
Stocks to Follow: Overview, Kinross Gold (K.to) (KGC), Focus Ventures (FCV.v), Dalradian
(DNA.to), Reservoir (RMC.v), NovaCopper (NCQ.to), Rio Alto (RIOM) (RIO.to), Minera IRL
(MIRL.L) (IRL.to), B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to), Coro Mining (COP.to).
Copper Basket: Overview, NGEx Resources (NGQ.to), Copper Fox (CUU.v), AQM Copper
(AQM.v).
Low Cost Producer Basket: Overview.
Regional Politics: Brazil: Dilma wins, Meanwhile in Uruguay..., And Puno, Guatemala: Judicial
rumblings against Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to), Peru: Antamina workers to strike.
Market Watching: Bear Creek (BCM.v): My wake up call, Nino Coppero, HudBay’s (HBM)
(HBM.to) bad apple, Endeavour Silver (EDR.to) (EXK) inside trades.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
FOMC Week
Because it was already shaping up as one of the “important Fed meetings”, we previewed this
week’s FOMC Yellenfest to a certain extent last week in IKN284 so no point in trudging over
that ground again. We’re already seeing plenty of forecast papers from the main houses on
what to expect, how QE will be announced as over, what details and language will be key in the
statement Wednesday afternoon. In order to avoid surprises on this, read Bill McBride who says
(excerpted) (1):
• The FOMC will announce the end of QE3.
• The FOMC statement will be shorter.
• Since there is no press conference following the FOMC meeting this month, I don't expect any
major changes to the FOMC statement - just the elimination of certain sections, and some
wording changes.
As always, worth reading the whole Calculated Risk post for what he sees as potentials for
wording changes. As usual there’ll be money won and lost depending on whether Yellen puts a
comma here or there. Anyway, expect the Fed to confound Doug Casey by not causing a stock
market crash. But it’s not his fault he’s wrong.
Lima visit: Impressions garnered
The insight gained from the corporate mining world last week, thanks to meetings and chats
1

with several people (I thank you all, you know who you are) made last week’s trip to The Belly
of the South American Mining Beast (you know it by the name Lima) worthwhile. Part of the
advantage comes from having nice people as friends (and let’s face it, nice people aren’t so
easy to find in mining) another is to have had the chance to step back and compare the change
in atmosphere since the last time I had time to hang around in the city and visit several offices
in one go, which was July.
Cost cutting is the high fashion trend in mining at the moment, and I was told on good
authority that a well known silver mining company (name withheld) had laid off around 30% of
its head office staff just this week. However, the pink slips weren’t seen by anyone in Vice
President (or above) level in the company hierarchy, hardly the first time for this type of cut,
which looks drastic and exemplary on the surface but keeps vested interests intact. The thought
occurs that despite the relatively heavy round of cuts, there’s still plenty of fat to trim from
companies bloated by the good years. In related news, a consultant engineer friend told me
there’s still work out there, particularly among the producers, but mining companies have been
cutting offers to the core and it’s now typical to work for 50% or even 60% less than just a
couple of years ago, doing the same work in the same places for the same people. Those not
willing to get paid less don’t get paid at all.
The overriding impression after doing the rounds in Lima and catching up with contacts was
one of fear. Clearly it’s not been a case of making hay while the sun shines for a couple of
years, but we’re now past the belt-tightening period and also the austerity period. The industry
is now in cut-everything period (except for the vice-president and board member level, see
above) and those that haven’t put aside a nest-egg or comfort money already are now either
actively worried about their future or they’re already laid off.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Santacruz Silver 3q14 production numbers
It’s unusual for IKN to dredge over a company that we’ve sold and left in detail, but today’s
analysis of the painfully poor results seen by Santacruz Silver (SCZ.v) comes with observations
and conclusions that can be applied to a lot of other companies and situations, so an exception
is being made to prove the rule.
To set the scene, a short paragraph to sum up our trade in SCZ during the middle months of
2014. In the update on Santacruz Silver in IKN277, dated August 31st, and then in subsequent
discussions on the stock that culminated with me dropping the position in SCZ.v and taking a
small loss on the trade, the trade thesis was that if 3q14 went well at its Rosario working mine,
the operation would finally go cash flow positive, SCZ wouldn’t need to raise any more cash and
it would be worth holding through. If on the other hand it raised capital it would be a negative
signal for 3q14 operations, because working cap was tight and the company would be flagging
another disappointing quarter’s worth of ops. Therefore when SCZ.v announced on September
18th it was taking a $28m pre-paid credit facility on future silver production, the Flash update
went out the next morning (see IKN280) and the position was sold. As explained in that Flash
update:
“... this deal is the signal I feared about Rosario. We went over the treasury position at SCZ in the
NOBS report of two weeks ago (IKN278) and identified it as a potential weak point. Our estimate
was treasury at ~$5m which was tight but playable (i.e. without extra raising needed) as long as
Rosario was now cash flow positive. If not, $5m would get swallowed quickly and SCZ would
need to raise cash again. I'd assumed that any further raising would come from an equity
financing and as it turns out, yesterday's news shows that not to be the case. But the implication
is the same, that SCZ needs to get more cash into the company at this moment (why else would
they do a deal at such a crappy moment?) and that's not good for the prospects at Rosario in
3q14.”
With that in mind, we’re now going to check in quickly on the 3q14 production numbers
2

announced by SCZ last week (2) with our starting point the average daily throughput and grade
charts. Here’s throughput and as you can see, the average was 263tpd in 3q14
tpd SCZ.v at Rosario: Throughput (tonnes per day)
300
263
251
250 227
200
150
95
100
50 33
0
3q13 4q13 1q14 2q14 3q14
source: SCZ filings, IKN ests
And here’s the head grade development, which shows Ag
at 161 g/t average in 3q14:
Those were two large misses from previous guidance. To
see that we need to go back to the SCZ 2q14 MD&A.
This short paragraph sums up the story SCZ was telling
at the time:
Mill throughput increased throughout the second quarter
averaging approximately 270 tonnes per day (tpd) with
average silver grade 153 g/t. Beginning in May all ore
processed through the milling facility was sourced from the
Rosario Mine and management is not planning on processing third party ore until the third ball mill
is commissioned, which is now expected in early September and will bring milling capacity to 700
tpd. The production level by the end of the third quarter is expected to increase to approximately
450 tpd.
Because of that, our model in IKN277 put average throughput at 333tpd for 3q14 and 200g/t
head grade (and if you look back at the piece in IKN277, you’ll see that even those were
underestimating SCZ numbers of around 360tpd and 230 g/t Ag). Therefore 161g/t Ag and 263
tpd is a long way from target. To put that into context, check out how our model spat out a
production guidance..
THAT WAS THEN....
SCZ.v at Rosario: Ag and AgEq production
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1q14 2q14 3q14est 4q14est
source: SCZ filings, IKN ests
3
zO
qEgA
dna
gA
g/t Ag SCZ.v at rosario: Silver head grade
225
200
175 167 153 161
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
1q14 2q14 3q14
source: company filings, IKN estimates
Ag prod
AgEq prod
...and how that looks in reality (with a suitably adjusted 4q14 in there as well)

...AND THIS IS NOW
SCZ.v at Rosario: Ag and AgEq production
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1q14 2q14 3q14 4q14est
source: SCZ filings, IKN ests
4
zO
qEgA
dna
gA
Ag prod
AgEq prod
For things to go well, we were looking for 174,000 oz silver or 287,100 oz AgEq from SCZ in
3q14. What we got was 115,455 oz silver or
184900 oz AgEq, a miss of over 100,000 oz AgEq SCZ at Rosario: Mine revenues and costs
$m
due to the much slower ramp-up (which is Revenues
5 Op-Ex
obviously from mill ops problems) and the much 4.5 amort/deprec
lower grade (which came from SCZ running third 3. 4 5 Mine operating profit
3
party rock and diluting overall grade when it said 2.5
pretty specifically in the 2q14 filings that it wasn’t 2
1.5
going to do that). 1
0.5
0
-0.5
As a result, here’s how we expect the financials to -1
-1.5 source: company filings, IKN ests
run and even in a relatively optimum sales
-2
situation (e.g. I didn’t factor in too much of the
1q14 2q14 3q14est 4q14est
silver drop in September, averaging things out)
SCZ still isn’t anywhere near running a free cash flow positive operation at Rosario, and be clear
that what you see is before G&A and other financial items that will likely total another $3m or
so. And before tax.
Summing up, this was a most disappointing quarter from SCZ, which missed by a nautical mile
from its own guidance just weeks previously and left the words of CEO Prestamo in last week’s
NR sounding hollow indeed:
"The Rosario Mine is now in position from a development perspective to provide the full mine
capacity of between 450 tpd to 500 tpd in the very near term," stated Arturo Préstamo, CEO of
Santacruz. "Our main focus is to generate free cash flow at the Rosario Mine".
You’ll notice “from a development perspective” and “our main focus” as qualifiers for 4q14, the
type inserted by copywriters to avoid problems later on, rather than spoken off-cuff by CEOs.
Polonius: What do you read, my lord?
Hamlet: Words, words, words.
Discussion and conclusion
First, let’s get the obvious ones out of the way because they’re of lesser importance:
• I was right to dump SCZ when I did, because it’s now 28% cheaper then my exit price.
• I was wrong to buy into SCZ early this year, because the company has not performed
the way I thought it would and mitigated loss or not, a loss is a loss.
With those done, the points I care more about.
• For the 852nd time, balance sheets matter. By focussing in on the state of the

most important part of the books, we saw the potential weak point (cash
treasury/working cap) and could make a decent guess that if SCZ decided to raise cash
its 3q14 wasn’t going to come in well. When SCZ announced its cash raise (ostensibly
to fund the San Felipe mine development, but the timing was obvious) the signal was
clear, we left and as it happens, 3q14 was even more of a trainwreck than I was
expecting.
• Execution matters. One of the weak points already identified with this company was
the tendency to under-deliver. The 3q14 numbers are perhaps the worst of its sins so
far and fully underscore its tendency to BS. By failing to deliver on its ramp-up schedule
in 2014, SCZ has put its financials under pressure and taken blue sky away from equity
holders in a de-facto dilution of future profits (you add shares to the count but maintain
profits, you keep the same number of shares but subtract from future bottom line
profits, it’s the same thing).
• No going back, not yet at least. When selling and leaving the trade in the Flash
update and in IKN280, I wrote I’d consider returning to SCZ and buying the stock if its
price dropped lower. For sure it’s done just that, but until this company and its
management stop BSsing all and sundry with weak excuses for poor execution, there’s
no way SCZ can be considered a buy potential. That’s not even mentioning the
weakness in the price of silver that could set back the company’s FCF+ plans even
further.
And that’s about it for SCZ today. Until it gets its act together it reminds me far too much of
Aurcana nowadays to buy again, not until it’s really shown that it has its act together and can
produce at the rate it’s been promising and failing to produce all through 2014. Discarding
companies as potential investment during DD and before considering a purchase is part and
parcel of the trade. Keeping a close watch on open positions and trying to catch when things
aren’t going well is another, and it’s one I’ve not been as good at doing as the initial barrier DD
investigations and decision process. I seem to have got this one right eventually and taken a
small loss that could have been worse, so I’ll give myself a “have improved” score today for
once.
Minera IRL meeting
I sat down on Wednesday afternoon with Courtney Chamberlain, CEO of Minera IRL (MIRL.L)
(IRL.to) in the IRL offices in Lima. CEO Chamberlain is a tough read, always very careful with
what he says to snotty-nosed impostors such as I, it’s difficult to get even an off-record
comment from him about what’s going on in the company. He’s also a likeable guy (straight-
5

shooting people tend to be) and pleasant company, so the hour of jousting was also fun. Here
are the impressions of our full hour (and then some) of chat.
Yes, IRL is close to a deal. That’s my impression. What I was told is that negotiations are going
on between the company and three other entities. There is no firm offer on the table yet (apart
from the Macquarie debt deal, which is known about). How close is a tough one to answer and
as the company is already fully guilty of setting a deadline for a deal and then missing it...
"I love deadlines. I like the whooshing sound they make as they fly by."
Douglas Adams
...a fact freely admitted by CEO Chamberlain in our meeting on Wednesday as a mistake in
word and deed, the way they’ve set out things this time is to provide “an update on progress”
come the 3q14 filings, which are due filed on November 14th (with the company board meeting
on November 13th). Yes they’re pushing to have something in place and a deal done, but no
guarantees. And let’s repeat, as of last Wednesday talks were clearly advanced (one of the
groups were still in Lima and meeting with IRL when I was there...though perhaps wisely IRL
had spirited them away for lunch while I was snooping around so I didn’t get to meet any of
them or find out names)
We talked about the Macquarie offer and the way in which business has been between the
bank and the miner as well. Firstly (and to counter some of the more uninformed rumours
emanating from Toronto) Chamberlain said that the business relationship between IRL and
Macquarie was good and that they’d been treated fairly by the bank. As far as I can see, this is
a positive at face value and means channels of communication are open and being used by
both sides, but it’s not a definitive “things will always be ok” because any decision to continue
or close an account made by a big financial entity tends not to be done by the point-poeple, i.e.
those in charge of a business relationship, but handed down to them by an upper desk.
Secondly, we talked about why IRL hadn’t accepted the offer made by Macquarie on the
financing deal and the conversation confirmed the deal hasn’t close 1) because Macquarie
couldn’t offer 100% of the cash needed to build Ollachea and 2) it came with an overly hedging
string attached that the miner simply didn’t like. And that’s fair enough.
On hedging, I took this as a cue and asked whether IRL would accept any sort of financing deal
that involved hedging. What came back was more nuanced than a simple no, but it’s clear that
anything above minor hedging of gold isn’t what IRL is looking for. That suits me, because
hedging at this low gold price can bring all sorts of headaches later down the line if gold starts
moving up again, with financial charges taking bottom line profits away and expensive
operations needed to unwind hedge positions (for those of us that remember the 2002 to 2007
period in capital markets). The impression I got is that where IRL is headed isn’t a straight
financial debt deal that comes with hedge positions built in. That suits me, because hedging
takes away blue sky potential from my junior positions.
We talked about the recent share price action in IRL and compared notes on who the large
chunky seller might be. Fact is, neither of us know and Chamberlain has had his feelers out for
an idea as to who it might be too, all to no avail. All we can deduce is that it’s not one of the
larger insto holders because they’re duty bound to report position changes, but for what it’s
worth (not much) the move down from ~15c to ~9c was as sickening for those in the company
as it was for those of us outside. On this subject, Chamberlain wasn’t under any sort of material
disclosure restriction and was open and as clear as possible (other times and on other matters,
inferences have to be drawn by your author).
Talking of which, the impression I got is that Ollachea is headed towards a JV deal and it’s in
late-stages of the deal talks too. Piecing together what I’ve heard on previous occasions with
the back and forth of last week, my best guess is that IRL is about to do a deal with another
mining company and swap out perhaps 60% of the asset in return for most of the capex
needed (and the payback of the Macquarie $30m loan). If I had to guess further, I’d say that
6

just that deal isn’t going to be enough to cover IRL’s part of the build costs so it needs to do a
second deal of some shape or form, perhaps an off-take or forward gold sale, perhaps a
straight and classic debt financing for the shortfall amount. However, I want to stress that this
paragraph really is best guess only and I’m open to being proven wrong (or completely wrong)
here. All you see is best guesses after watching things closely over the weeks and months, plus
keeping my ear to the ground and talking with people inside and outside the company. Overall
I’d be ok about this sort of deal; although obviously not the optimum position where IRL takes
the whole of the project to production by itself and then enjoys all the fruits (bar the local
town’s minority participation), if a company with a good asset and no money can get together
with a company with money looking for a good asset, the fit is better than nothing (and better
than handing all the upside over to a bank). I even have a good idea as to who the other party
might be, but as that correct assumption might ruffle feathers at a delicate time I’m not going
to mention any names in print. Being a shareholder, I want something to happen and not to get
delayed due to loose lips, especially when those lips are my own.
As regards treasury position today, IRL is in an ok place without being swimming in cash right
now and is obviously being careful with its money. Any deal to develop Ollachea with a partner
will come as a relief, because it’s now by far the biggest drain on company coffers so getting it
both financed and moving into construction will be a big benefit to the burn rate. If not, from
what I heard plus checking company obligations going forward we can assume IRL has enough
money to get it to 2q15, but not much further. The bottom line here is that IRL isn’t limping
and isn’t desperate to do the first deal that comes along, but there is a clock ticking somewhere
in the background. Again, this points to a company that wants to get this mine under orders by
mid-November
According to Chamberlain last week’s trip to Ollachea went well. It was part of late-stage DD
done by IRL and one of the third party potential funders for Ollachea. It served a second
purpose of being able to check up on the current state of community and political relations in
Ollachea town and in the wider Puno region. On that score CEO Chamberlain reported that
things between miners and locals remain in excellent shape and the town is happy with the
company and its plans, even though development hasn’t happened on the timeline originally
expected. As for regional politics, CEO Chamberlain agree with something that I’m now taking
as read; Walter Aduviri will not win the second round run off and the preferred candidate for
mining and business in the region, Luque Mamani, will win his job in the November round two.
In other news, the company fixed assets were reportedly in good shape, while a silver lining for
the mining is how the number of informal miners working nearby has dropped sharply, due to
the combo of 1) lower gold prices and 2) a recent clean-up campaign run by the Peru
government in the area recently that evicted a lot of the informal/illegal miners and stopped
their workings. Chamberlain told me that many of the people who had given up on artisan-type
mining were locals and were now waiting for the formal mine to get underway for their next
employment opportunity. A ready supply of labour looks in place.
We also talked about any changes in capex assumptions, what with the market’s new direction
for cost cutting and there availability of cheaper supplies, labour etc to the mining industry due
to the downturn. Officially IRL is keeping to its costs schedule as stands which seems wise to
me. Unofficially (and I had to push on this even to get the slightest sort of admission), IRL will
probably be able to shave off some of the total capex bill and save here and there on the
official numbers. As the capex is the big barrier at Ollachea, I’d call that a mild positive at this
point though I won’t be changing the model assumptions.
I also raised a point that’s been put to me by one or two readers of The IKN Weekly: What with
the Feas study base case using $1,300/oz gold, has the drop to $1,200/oz scuppered talks or
made financing parameters more difficult. The answer was a resounding no (I’m glad to report)
because the feas documents are also quick to point out NAVs and IRRs at different prices for
gold, both lower and higher, and Ollachea’s metrics (on paper) stand up well to a lower gold
price environment (e.g. ~20% IRR at $1.2k/oz Au)
7

Somewhat separately, we also talked a little about Corihuarmi and how that continues to
deliver. It’s now likely that production will be pushed out another year and 2016 should see
meaningful operations at the mine, even assuming the current prices in gold. It’s small stuff
and not moving the share price dial anywhere, but Corihuarmi has covered company G&A costs
along its way and also shows IRL knows how to produce gold at a profit. This year’s drill results
were completely ignored by the market but the discovery of high grading veins there has the
company intrigued and warrants further investigation, though Chamberlain was quick to point
out that budgets are tight and such matters will have to wait until the Ollachea deal is closed
and things are moving forward, at the very least.
And now for a little background into the rest of my week in Lima, because a little narrative
helps hang my thoughts on IRL today. With ~228m shares out and an (at the time) share price
of 8c and 9c, when I left the company office on Wednesday afternoon the market cap of IRL
stood at CAD$20.5m tops. As I was feeling a little under the weather that day (some low grade
bug I’d picked up form my youngest, for your information) that evening was spent running over
the IRL figures in the hotel before dropping off to sleep. The more I thought about it, the more
I kept coming back to one conclusion about today’s IRL; at 8c and 9c the market was pricing in
complete failure at Ollachea, when there was clearly a low probability of that and we may be on
the cusp of the real deal that would finally get the mine built.
We’re now at the point where ANY deal would see IRL’s share price pop higher, not just THE
deal that IRL wants that would keep as much benefit and upside exposure inside the company
as possible. By the end of Wednesday evening I’d almost convinced myself to add some and
send out a Flash update to that end, but it was late and I decided to sleep, get a fresher brain
wait and see how Thursday’s market opened
before making a call. As it happens, next
morning gold opened lower and GDX/GDXJ
went South at the open too, so I scrubbed the
idea of adding a few and went off to the
meetings and lunch scheduled that day (the
lunch was fun, the meets less so and i found
myself scrubbing two possible companies from
my DD list). I didn’t watch the market and
didn’t see the late day reversal and rebound.
Come Friday and my last day in Lima, thoughts
of trading weren’t foremost in my mind and it
was only on arrival at the airport for the plane
home that I got online and saw what had happened to IRL shares that day. Here’s a five day
chart
So first up, that wasn’t me. I didn’t buy any, add any nor did I tell anybody else to do so. What
I suspect (and it’s only a suspicion) is that either somebody else had taken a good hard stare at
the share price and decided that it was unfairly price for failure, or some breakthrough has
been made with the deal negotiations and somebody either got leaky or got greedy. I don’t
know, but that kind of heavy trading coming after strange 100%+ spike is mysterious. What we
need to watch, and watch carefully, is the trading action in London tomorrow (today?) when
that market opens for business, because most of the strangeness happened after the European
close on Friday.
The bottom line: IRL is cheap because it’s going to do some sort of deal on Ollachea at some
point, while the market seems to price in no deal at all and a failed company. What’s more,
signs and signals are that after several unwelcome delays, we are, I believe, close to getting a
deal done that will see Ollachea built and the mine put into production. What shape that deal
might be is a big question and as I’ve mentioned on innumerable occasions before the devil will
be in the details on this one. However, wondering how IRL shares will be affected by such-and-
such a clause when they’re trading at 20c is a different thing than today, when they’re at 9c
and 12c (even 8c for a while back there). Just by doing something as simple as...
8

• Assume Ollachea is a $200m mine
• IRL keeps 40% of that
• And takes a $30m loan to pay its capex corner
• Which leaves IRL at +$50m
• Which is a 22c share price
...makes the case that the share price is fully priced for the unlikely scenario of total failure.
I need to finish this with a personal portfolio call. On the one hand I can smell the value and
the timing opportunity here, on the other hand I already have too many IRL stuck away for
comfort and they’re all SCUBA-level underwater, too. And the on the other hand we have that
strange market action on Friday to consider, which means I have three hands and that’s not
right at all. I can definitely say I’m not a seller of IRL, that’s the easy part especially after
waiting so long for a deal and seemingly being on the cusp of one at Ollachea. Whether I’m a
buyer (and I do still have some cash left on the sidelines, not a massive amount but enough to
make a difference when the shares sell for 10c each) will depend on what happens in the
market action of next week, I suppose. So no decision from me today, but IRL and particularly
MIRL.L will be front and centre on my radar screen next week.
Stocks to Follow
Just three of our (now) 15 open positions made gains on the week (IRL.to, RMC.v, ARG.to) with
Minera IRL by far the best winner thanks to its big pop on Friday (IRL.to up 26.3%). There was
one unchanged stock on the week (SRL.v). This means eleven stocks showed weekly losses
(not listing them all) and another abject display from the junior mining world is thereby logged
and recorded. The worst percentage losses were seen in Coro Mining (COP.to down 20.0%),
Dalradian Resources (DNA.to down 15.7%), NovaCopper (NCQ.to down 12.0%) and GoldQuest
Mining (GQC.v down 9.4%) so although it wasn’t pretty to watch, at least the worst losers came
from (mostly) the smaller and less liquid traded type of company. By way of contrast, things
such as BTO and TGD lost just a penny on the week.
There are currently 14 open positions on our ‘Stocks to Follow’ list, one less than our self-
imposed maximum. Two of our fourteen are in the green, one unchanged, the rest in the red.
9

Reco Current
company Ticker this week Avg Price date PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
Top Picks
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to hold/buy C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$2.71 17.8% Top pick, $3.30 tgt June 15
Recommended long positions (in current order of preference)
Timmins Gold TGD buy U$1.38 09-apr-14 U$1.26 -8.7% $2 tgt, holding thru
Minera IRL IRL.to spec buy C$0.27 22-jul-12 C$0.12 -55.5% Waiting for financing
B2Gold BTO.to buy C$2.32 12-sep-14 C$2.30 -0.9% Top value entry point now
Focus Ventures FCV.v spec buy C$0.23 01-jul-12 C$0.23 0.0% tgt 50c, added, avged up
Reservoir Min. RMC.v buy C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$3.88 -35.9% Time to add, Cu play
First Majestic AG buy U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$6.76 -35.7% Main Ag pos., hit hard by dump
Dalradian Res DNA.to buy C$0.64 27-oct-13 C$0.59 -7.8% Poss add, tgt $1.70
Amerigo Res ARG.to spec buy C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.37 -8.6% Small Cu play, adding here
NovaCopper NCQ.to spec buy C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.81 -22.9% small Cu play started well
Goldquest Min. GQC.v hold C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.145 -44.2% looking for a reasonable out
Lara Expl. LRA.v hold C$1.15 08-apr-12 C$0.50 -56.5% solid biz model, LT hold
Recommended short positions
None at moment
Smaller/Riskier
Kinross Gold KGC spec buy U$2.90 20-oct-14 U$2.71 -6.6% New v small trade spec
Coro Mining COP.to spec buy C$0.125 26-jan-14 C$0.04 -68.0% Cu spec play, can add
Salazar Res SRL.v hold C$0.28 02-mar-14 C$0.165 -35.7% small spec, new China JV
Closed in 2014 closed close price
Fortuna Silver FVI.to jan'14 C$2.80 23-dec-13 C$3.19 13.9% small ST trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to jan'14 C$2.06 07-jun-13 C$2.30 11.7% trading position finally closed
Network Expl. NET.v feb'14 C$0.01 22-jul-12 C$0.005 -50.0% position closed, did nothing
Tahoe Resources TAHO feb'14 U$13.10 08-apr-13 U$21.72 -65.8% short closed due to reality
Darwin Res DAR.v mar'14 C$0.10 14-jul-12 C$0.045 -55.0% tiny risk play dropped
B2Gold BTO.to mar'14 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.35 9.1% closed to free up capital
Pretium Res PVG mar'14 U$5.38 22-nov-13 U$6.50 -20.8% short closed as port longer
Gold Res Corp GORO may'14 U$5.07 26-jan-14 U$4.12 16.7% took profit
Bear Creek Min BCM.v may'14 C$1.63 23-mar-14 C$2.05 25.8% Took profit, sm near-term win
Eco Oro Min. EOM.to aug'14 C$0.48 22-sep-13 C$0.26 -45.8% sold small loser to make room
True Gold TGM.v sep'14 C$0.395 02-feb-14 C$0.41 3.8% M&A won't happen, sold
Santacruz Silver SCZ.v sep'14 C$1.04 26-jan-14 C$0.86 -17.3% silver/M&A spec, rel. small
2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 closed positions in appendices below
Now for some notes on a selection of the above stocks.
Kinross Gold (K.to) (KGC): Position opened. As you can see above, I wasn’t joking when I
said small and spec last week as it’s joined the smaller/riskier end of the portfolio, a multi-billion
dollar producer say next to two micro-minnows in COP and SRL. This gets top-section mention
because judging by at least some of the feedback*, the intention and the small size of this new
trade didn’t get across so very well (which is probably my fault) so here I go again.
• This is not a big trade. It’s a small trade.
• It’s a speculative punt. It’s one I’ll drop if it goes too far against me and I’d drop it
without a second thought. That’s because it’s a small trade (see above) and not going
to affect my life to any great extent, win or lose, in its current state.
• I’m fully aware of the risk that I’m catching a falling knife and in fact, it would be highly
presumptuous, even arrogant, of me to believe I was buying in at the bottom of the K
price drop (again, just look at the price action for the last couple of years). That in itself
indicates I’m relaxed about any near-term loss and willing to see it go lower before it
10

goes higher.
• I consider it little more than a marker, a foot in the door. If K does start rallying and
showing some reasonable percentage improvement I may investigate further and invest
more time and eventually money into the company.
That’s about as boring as I’m going to allow myself to be, anyone who wants more on this
subject and would like me to write the same thing in different ways can write me a mail and
then read the reply. I won’t use any swear words, promise.
Meanwhile we had real an interesting news from K last week that, bizarrely, fit into my whole
thesis about why K looks cheap today. Fruta Del Norte (3) was sold to (what will be) Lundin
Gold, a new vehicle in the Lundin group, for $240m in cash and shares (the amount of cash in
the final payment will depend on how well Lundin Gold’s round of raising goes. Although not
Paracatu (obviously) the idea of a K looking to raise cash by selling its assets is there and
what’s more, as FDN had already been written down to zero on K’s books it’s the equivalent of
adding 21c/share to its current assets balance. This is a net win for K on its financial side,
though you wouldn’t have guessed it by the way it traded afterwards
To be honest, when reading the announcement on Monday evening I thought K would enjoy a
pop to over U$3 on the news and give my small position, started Monday at U$2.90, a nice little
pop and fortunate start. But that was not to be, as gold weakened that same morning, trumped
all bets and all miners started sagging (and didn’t stop). K was no exception to the rule and
here we stand this weekend with another blob of red ink on the table to join the others. Ho
hum.
What last week taught me was that K is still a very nervous beast of a stock and that people are
looking to its 3q14 financials for solid ground on which to stage a potential recovery. What it
also taught me is that my silly idea of selling Paracatu isn’t so silly after all and that K looks
willing to deal on its asset book. On balance, I’d call that a good idea for the company.
*There was quite a lot on this subject and that surprised me. On reflection, perhaps it’s because more people are
looking for ideas and thoughts on the larger cap names than I’d previously imagined.
Focus Ventures (FCV.v): Three things to like about FCV:
• It’s doing volume. OK, it’s not exactly Goldcorp or Apple but FCV.v opens for business
most days these days and did 100k of volume on three of last week’s five trading days,
which is a vast improvement on how it traded just a few months ago. It wouldn’t take
much to crank this volume increase to the next level and make FCV into a reasonable
alternative for anyone wanting to play spec trading in phosphates.
• It’s just done a JV deal. Thursday morning (4) saw FCV announce a deal on its Aurora
copper project with the big-as-they-come Daewoo company of South Korea. Now for
sure it’s a minor part of FCV these days but 1) it shows they can still put together a JV
even in this tough market 2) it’s a good company to partner with 3) it lifts the modest
financial and manpower burden of maintaining Aurora from FCV’s hands and lets them
get on with the flagship task of advancing Bayovar 12 with no distractions 4) you never
know, something may come of Aurora further down the line after Daewoo drills and
explores.
• FCV is attending the International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA) Asia Crossroads
event in Singapore this week (5) (October 28th to 30th), a premier event in the ferts
world (or so I’m led to believe) and I’m also told FCV has a whole bunch of interesting
meetings lined up with all the right kind of players and people (a glance at the
company attendance list (6) and you get the strong impression that anyone who’s
anyone in the world of fertilizers is going to be there).
11

In trading (aside from the volume) FCV ran sideways, closing down a penny this week after
being up a penny the week before. In other words, no big deal as we wait to see whether it can
land the big catalyst for the share price, a JV deal on Bayovar 12.
Dalradian Resources (DNA.to): One week after adding at 62c and feeling very smart, comes
the suitable chastening. Somebody somewhere decided that not holding DNA was a better thing
for their life than holding NA any longer, dumped into thin bid and the stock spent a woeful
time at market on Thursday and Friday as a result. I see no reason for the sell-off and expect it
to return to better numbers this week. If not, the thesis will need re-examining.
Reservoir Minerals (RMC.v): Although not immune to the wholesale junior selling, RMC did
better than most and it was good to see it trading over $4 again (for a while) after giving it the
rousing support it fully deserves last weekend. It also managed to finish the week in the green,
which puts it in the minority of juniors.
NovaCopper (NCQ.to): NCQ continues to suffer under thin trading and people totally
uninterested in holding a junior copper explorer. And as I made the point myself last week that
there’s little reason for majors to buy projects when they can pick up producing mines for much
better value (7), it’s an understandable (though unwelcome) market trend today and as a result
I’m not expecting fireworks from this position anytime soon. But that the very same message as
a couple of weeks ago, so it’s not changing either. I expect NCQ to drift in the copper tide of
ebbs and flows until somebody decides to do something serious with the land and the mineral
there.
Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) (RIOM): Aside from the fluctuations nd machinations of the junior
mining and mining sector of the stock market, over and above the sector-beating performance
of the stock this year (I grasp at the few crumbs of mercy shown by the market towards my
portfolio in 2014), RIO.to has shown a bad habit of not being able to hold onto a 3-handle
when it shows up.
Other people have noticed too, it seems. When it comes to insider selling, one of the things i
care about is who’s the seller rather than how many shares go through. Some peripheral
director or legal beagle who has less of a say in the corporate strategy or day-to-day running of
your mining company is one thing, key personnel who see what’s happening at ground zero is
another. Tim Williams is the man in charge of running La Arena and very definitely falls into
that second category, so seeing him swap out 60,000 of his $1.90 options and selling them at
exactly $3.00 gets my attention more than most insider trades do.
12

In other news, we can expect the site trip reports from the gaggle of Canadians taken round
both La Arena and Shahuindo to hit the newsstands. Let’s see what they have to say for
themselves.
Stop Press: In its report dated Sunday October 26th, BMO has raised RIO.to to “market
outperform” and raised its price target on the stock from $3.25 to $3.50.
Minera IRL (IRL.to) (MIRL.L): See above for gleaned information on the company. Here we
do the trading on the week which was, of course, dominated by the way in which IRL popped
on heavy volume in Toronto trading Friday. At first it looked like a fat finger trader had hit it to
21c, but after the circuit-breaker halt had lifted the buyers were still there and present, buying
the stock up from 10c to 12c via 1.41m in volume.
B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to): BTO acted like a market leader because that’s what it is, among the
juniors at least. To that end, consider
this 10 day chart of BTO (black line) set
against the gold bullion ETF (GLD) and
the juniors ETF (GDXJ)
This is clearly not a company being
traded off its own news. BTO has done
slightly better than the GDXJ in 2014
and more importantly, has shown
resilience since getting severely
dumped upon in September (that
dumpage being why I bought some).
The bet here is on an improved quarter
via the 3q14 numbers (which will be
with us November 14th (7)) and then to
the type of NR buzz it will be able to
create from the opening on Otjikoto and then development news around the newly acquired
Papillon asset(s). We’re about to move into the hot marketing period for BTO and that’s why
we’re here. Any love from the gold market would be considered a bonus.
Coro Mining (COP.to): Two bits of news from COP last week that didn’t stop somebody from
selling in relatively heavy manner (in shares at least) and dropping the stock from 5c to 4c, but
I’d venture the news on Friday was far more positive than the market credit it was given.
The first one was a bit of a mixed bag, when COP announced (8) that its Berta project had
received environmental approval. That’s the good news, the bad news is that COP also
announced that the connected Nora project, at which COP plans to process the Berta mine
feed, still needs surface rights deals and is running over the original schedule. Some leeway
should be given to COP at this point, but there is a potential bottleneck arising which could stop
all its development plans. Worth watching and is almost certainly the reason why the stock saw
selling and dropped to 4c on Thursday. The tailings around the Nora plant are the planned first
production feed that COP wants to get moving and make it into an (admittedly small) operator
instead of just another exploreco by 1q15. Delays here will push its timeline back (a timeline
best explained by stealing this useful table from its latest presentation):
13

Then on Friday came better news. The Definitive Agreement between COP and partners Solway
and Aterra on the San Jorge copper project in Mendoza Argentina was announced signed (9), a
moment which starts the clock running on financial and development obligations by the buyers
towards COP.
Then yesterday Saturday we got more perspective on what “the Russians” (aka Solway and
Aterra) are planning to do with San Jorge via this report (10) that has them “just waiting on
environmental permits” and “moving forward before Christmas” though also “worried about the
2015 election season” and how that might slow things down. What’s clear is the aggressive
stance and the desire to move forward as quickly as possible on San Jorge, which may be good
news for COP.to. As that NR points out, there are several ways in which the JV can move
forward but what seems most likely is one of the options where The Russians buy out the
COP.to 30% participation and leaves them with a 2.5% NSR only, which will still be pretty
valuable if the mine ever starts working, but that would be for the medium-term future. Of the
ways in which COP can be bought out, the cheapest way for the buyers is also the quickest
way, via the payment of a total of $4.3m in cash within six months of signing the DA (the thing
that happened last week). It’s worth checking company literature for all the options on the
table (including the foot dragger one that would make COP pay its corner else be diluted out to
a 2% NSR), but if the Russians are as aggressive as they made out in that Saturday Q&A, they
may just write that cheque and pay COP off immediately. As $4.3m represents a) 2.8c per
share and b) a very useful cash injection that would come at the right time for a company
trying to put together its own operations in Chile, the San Jorge benefit to a 4c stock is well
worth consideration.
With 159.4m share outstanding and a price of just 4c, there’s a lot going on in this $6.37m
tinycapper and just about all its plans make it worth more than this. The reception given to the
San Jorge news, in particular, had me scratching my head because it looks to me as if the
market hasn’t figured out the positives that signing the deal may bring to COP. We need to
watch the surface rights agreement delay for Nora and where that might lead, but getting the
EIA approved for Berta puts the company on the right track in Chile and with a preliminary
agreement with its partners for funding of the deal (check the COP documents for the full story,
but the basic idea is a typical one, that local company ProPipe is optioning in by paying
development costs), closure on surface rights would give the project the clean run to
production in 1q15 or 2q15. Add in the potential for a cash windfall from San Jorge in the near
future and 4c looks particularly giveaway right now.
14

The Copper Basket
After forty-three weeks of 2014 The Copper Basket is showing a 14.34% loss to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/14 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Augusta Res AZC.to 1.51 144.41 541.54 3.75 148.3%
2 Lumina Copper LCC.v 6.29 44.07 440.70 10.00 59.0%
3 NGEx Resources NGQ.to 1.43 168.71 256.44 1.52 6.3%
4 Reservoir Min. RMC.v 4.97 47.55 184.49 3.88 -21.9%
5 Nevada Copper NCU.to 1.35 80.5 128.00 1.59 17.8%
6 Copper Fox CUU.v 0.375 402.96 74.55 0.185 -50.7%
7 Hot Chili Ltd HCH.ax 0.425 333.11 68.29 0.21 -51.8%
8 Panoro Minerals PML.v 0.35 220.25 61.67 0.28 -20.0%
9 Western Copper WRN.to 0.76 93.68 56.21 0.60 -21.1%
10 Curis Resources CUV.to 0.57 74.79 50.11 0.67 17.5%
11 NovaCopper NCQ.to 1.60 60.15 48.72 0.81 -49.4%
12 AQM Copper AQM.v 0.11 139.24 9.75 0.07 -36.4%
13 Cordoba Min. CDB.v 0.90 58.81 8.23 0.14 -84.4%
14 Coro Mining* COP.to 0.10 159.37 6.37 0.04 -60.0%
15 Oracle Mining OMN.to 0.27 49.03 4.17 0.085 -68.5%
NB: HCH.ax priced in AUD$, rest CAD$ //CDB 2x1 split May'14 Portfolio avg -14.34%
The basket average dropped 1.9%, with just
The Copper basket 2014, weekly evolution
three weekly winners to call (RMC.v, NCU.to,
25%
OMN.to) and three others that remained
20%
unchanged (LCC.v, AZC.to, PML.v). That 15%
leaves nine losers (not listing them all) with 10%
the worst of the drops seen in the perma- 5%
losing Cordoba (CDB.v down 30.0%), Coro 0%
(COP.to down 20.0%), Copper Fox (CUU.v -5%
down 15.9%), NovaCopper (NCQ.to down -10%
12.0%) and Hot Chili (HCH.ax down 10.9%). -15%
Bringing some mitigation to those heavy -20%
percentage drops were two heavy
percentage wins from Oracle (OMN.to up
41.7%) and Nevada Copper (NCU.to up
16.9%).
Overall, the story of last week was jagged and
volatile action on low volumes from the small end
stocks. With just a few exceptions, there was
more noise than signal and not a week in which to
read too much.
As for copper prices, they did well enough in a
modest way in straight percentage terms, but the
psychological boost to moving away from the
$3/lb level may turn out to be more positive in the
week to come. As the chart here shows, the move
was clearly lower to higher all week.
China’s GDP growth number came in on Monday
and as that copper price chart suggests, the news
went down well enough with a market that had
talked about something as low as 7.1% for the
quarter. In the en4d the 7.3% GDP growth rate claimed by China was still the lowest for quite a
15
ht5naj ht91 dn2bef ht61 dn2ram ht61 ht03 ht31 ht72 ht11 ht52 ht8 dn22 ht6luj ht02 dr3gua ht71 ts13guA ht41 ht82 ht21 ht62
source: IKN calcs

while, but as this chart shows it’s hardly out of place or liable to send cold shivers of panic
through the world.
China GDP growth
10%
9%
8% 7.7% 7.5% 7.8% 7.7% 7.4% 7.5% 7.3%
7%
6%
5%
4% 6
3%
2%
1%
0%
1q13 2q13 3q13 4q13 1q14 2q14 3q14
source: Cochilco
Though I do get the strong impression that China announces the type of number that the rest
of the world wants to hear, rather than a number that’s close to reality.
Now for the inventories section, here are the bullet points:
• Overall world stock levels moved rose a little, going up a slim 0.5% or 1,456 metric
tonnes (mt) to finish the week at 284,203mt.
• Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks dropped slightly after the previous week’s big jump,
finishing Friday at 95,101mt and down 2,134mt (-2.2%) from last weekend.
• The LME copper warehouse inventories went up for a second week running by roughly
the same amount, this time up 4,900,t to finish at too, but this one only slightly by
5,025mt (+0.3%) to finish the week at 159,550mt.
• Comex warehouse stocks did something that they haven’t done for a long time; they
dropped by a significant amount, down 1,310mt (-4.2%) to drop under 30k and finish
at 29,552mt. It’ll be worth watching this datapoint next weekend.
Here’s our 2014 year to date tracker chart of the Shanghai warehouse only. Things may have
drifted back up, but we’re still a long way from the type of stocks this system held at the end of
last year and the beginning of 2014.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014
220000
200000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
16
ts13ceD ht5naj ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2ram ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpa ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1enuj ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6yluj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3gua ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7 ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5tco ht21 ht91 ht62
Mt Cu
source: Cochilco
Now for some short commentary on three of our basket stocks:
NGEx Resources (NGQ.to): This was the main news bringer of the week from our select
band of companies, thanks to Monday’s announcement of a PEA on its Los Helados project in
the upper reaches of Chile (11) I said all I wanted to say about the report on the blog that

same day (12) as $4.3Bn, for a 9.4% IRR using $3.25/lb copper isn’t going to impress anyone.
It was then amusing to watch how the NGEx debate morphed, because post-PEA the excuses
(you might call them reasons, or logical
extrapolations, or strategic consequences)
offered up by the self-interested anal ysts
covering NGEx were a wonder to behold.
Suddenly, with a bunch of crappy PEA numbers
to explain, we’re told that we should ignore Los
Helados as a stand-alone because its future as
a mine isn’t that, it’s as a feeder pit for
Caserones down the hill. Or it’s not Los Helados
standalone, it’s an altogether bigger and more
wonderful triple pit massive mine that will
contain Los Helados in Chile and the nearby
Josemaria and Filos del Sol deposits on the
Argentina side of the border that will be a
wonderful massive bi-national supermine (and we all know how well the bi-national Pascua
Lama mine’s worked out).
The point is that with the PEA in hand, we the willing investors are told that we should ignore
the PEA because it’s a baseline-only document and isn’t part of the future reality of the mining
zone. Which of course begs the question as to why the PEA was commissioned and paid for and
completed and published but we don’t want to confuse people’s brains too much. Just buy the
stock people (or at least don’t sell the ones you own), ok?
The bullshit spewed out by sycophantic lackeys who kowtow to the established mining names
has to be seen in perspective. How anyone can trust the word of these so-called independent
analysts covering and recommending NGEx as a hot junior after the circus show we saw from
these idiots is beyond my understanding. Its future, if any, will be as feed for Caserones but as
that mine has all the rock it needs for many, many years there’s no need for Pan Pacific to buy
its partner out for anything approaching current prices. It can pick its own time, its own price
and let NGEx wither on the vine until then. As noted, this is why Lundin (LUN.to) is buying
working operations in Chile in the shape of Candelaria, rather the buying its own cousin
company NGEx for what it owns.
I will be most surprised if NGEx doesn’t see trading under $1 during 2015, it’s going nowhere
by burning its cash on expensive projects in the wrong part of the world.
Copper Fox (CUU.v): The pump on rumours seen the week before quickly unravelled once
CUU brought out its news of the meeting with its Schaft Creek partner Teck. Wishful thinking
gave way to reality and the reality hasn’t changed; Schaft Creek is still a marginal and
uninteresting project that’s way down the list of places that will become mines.
AQM Copper (AQM.v): As mentioned last week, on October 15th AQM announced (13) that
drilling has begun at Zafranal on the program that will eventually provide the information for
the pre-feas, due in 18 months or so. I said I’d try to find out what I could about the current
situation at AQM and here goes on that, so for what it’s worth we understand that the first part
of the drill program will concentrate on the less understood oxide zones, while later in 2015
emphasis will move to the sulphide definition and bringing more of the resource up to the
standards needed for a pre-feas.
In effect, AQM is little more than a paid operator of other people’s plans at Zafranal these days.
It needs to fund its corner of the pre-feas budget and has done so (via its Mitsu deal) so that’s
not a problem. The decisions, what to do and how to do it are now being made by major
partner Teck at the site. We should also recognize that AQM is likely to go through a quiet news
period, as serious exploration, resource definition and pre-feas work is done at the behest of a
major, rather than trying to wow us the retail speculation audience. That’s a double-edged
17

sword, as it suggests the share price action will be peripheral and uninteresting for an extended
period though the end result is different than many of those spec vehicles out there.
The Low Cost Producer Basket
After 43 weeks, the Low Cost Producer Basket is showing a 4.19% loss to level stakes
company ticker price 1/1/14 Shares out Mkt Cap (Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Freeport FCX 37.74 1040 32.03 30.80 -18.4%
2 Goldcorp GG 21.67 812 18.07 22.25 2,7%
3 Barrick ABX 17.63 1000 13.52 13.52 -23.3%
4 Newmont NEM 23.03 497.87 11.08 22.25 -3.4%
5 Franco Nevada FNV 40.74 155.39 8.32 53.57 25.8%
6 Silver Wheaton SLW 20.19 357.39 7.05 19.74 -2.2%
7 Agnico Eagle AEM 26.38 173.43 5.06 29.20 10.7%
8 B2Gold BTG 2.02 948.9 1.95 2.05 1.5%
9 Pan American PAAS 11.70 151.41 1.60 10.54 -9.8%
10 First Majestic AG 9.80 117.02 0.79 6.76 -31.0%
all prices in U$, using NYSE ticker prices Portfolio avg -4.19%
Five of our Low Cost Producer Basket stocks went up last week (FCX, ABX, SLW, FNV, AEM)
and the other five went down (GG,
NEM, PAAS, BTG, AG) so the count
was split down the middle and
although the basket average dropped
a little, it’s clear that the bigger
companies of this section had an
easier time of it than the smaller
companies we follow most closely.
However the difference wasn’t that
much and the flattening out process
that started three weeks ago had now
stopped the rot of September. No big
moves among the component stocks
to highlight, either.
The difference between out group of low cost producers and the GDX control has tightened,
too. I’m still not sure what this dataset might offer us by way of insight, though.
Low Cost Basket: Percentage difference between
basket and GDX control, 2014
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
18
ts13ceD ht21 ht62 ht9 dr32 ht9 dr32 ht6rpa ht02 ht4yam ht81 ts1nuj ht51 ht92 ht31 ht72 ht01 ht42 ht7peS ts12 ht5tco ht91
The Low Cost Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
comparative to GDX control
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
source: ikn calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq data
We’re now moving into reporting season for the larger cap mining stocks, so we’re bound to
have more coverage in this section in the next couple of weeks. For now, we’ll stay with
overview only and move to the politics.
ts13ceD ht21 ht62 ht9 dr32 ht9 dr32 ht6rpa ht02 ht4yam ht81 ts1nuj ht51 ht92 ht31 ht72 ht01 ht42 ht7peS ts12 ht5tco ht91
basket
gdx control
source: Yahoo! Finance, IKN calcs

Regional politics
Brazil: Dilma wins
At 51.64% Dilma Rousseff versus 48.36% Aecio Neves it was everso slightly closer than I
imagined, but the win is the thing and Dilma Rousseff has indeed been re-elected as President
of Brazil for another term of office. As a reminder, once the fall-outs done with things will
return to business as usual in Brazil, which is neither a good nor a bad thing for our focus
sector of junior mining.
Meanwhile in Uruguay...
...the exit polls (14) point to a second round run-off between Tabaré Vázquez of the ruling
Frente Amplio and Luis Lacalle Pou of Partido Nacional. With ex-President Vázquez on between
45% and 46% according to the exit polls, he’s not quite at the 50% +1 vote needed for a first
round win but he’ll go into the run-off next month as red hot favourite. As Uruguay is currently
a minor nation when it comes to our sector of junior mining companies, it’s not one that is
particularly topical or comes with a potential trade.
And Puno
On Wednesday 22nd we finally got an official result from the Puno regional governor’s election
(15). Juan Luque Mamani received 29.24% of the vote and will indeed go into a second round
run-off with Walter Aduviri, who received 21.55% of the vote. The run-off election is now slated
for a day in “the last week of November, or failing that the first two weeks in December” (sorry
folks, that’s all we have right now). See below for more thoughts on this and BCM.v.
Guatemala: Judicial rumblings against Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to)
This is one we covered quite closely for a while, particularly when trouble and violence flared up
in THO’s host town San Rafael Las Flores a couple of years ago against the presence of its
Escobal mine there. The result was the government sending in the troops and declaring a state
of emergency, which although lifted by the letter of the law still exists today as military control
posts and troops still exercise control in the town to try and keep things quiet (though under-
reported protest marches and events still go on). Since that hot time THO’s mine has gone into
commercial production and the community risk issues have been swept under the carpet
somewhat, but it’s been worth keeping an eye on matter there recently because legal actions
against the presence of the mine have started making a little headway again. Last Tuesday
October 21st , THO CEO Kevin MacArthur was summoned (16) to appear in front of a judicial
hearing against the company by government prosecutors (rough equivalent to district attorneys
in USA) investigating violence and death threats made against the leader of the local anti-
mining protest group. Not surprisingly his lawyers stood in for him and made the deposition,
but it’s rather interesting to see a branch of the government make such a call for official
statement in front of a judge and is testimony to the tenacity of the anti-mine people in their
almost totally unreported (to the outside world) and un-noticed efforts against THO in
Guatemala.
It’s unlikely that the legal actions and cases brought against Tahoe at Escobal (leader in the
efforts against THO is the environmental pressure group CALAS) re going to make much
headway while the company’s staunch ally Otto Pérez Molina is still President of the country.
However, we’re now less than a year from the next Presidential election in Guatemala (yes,
seriously, it’s slated for September 13th 2015) and as Pérez Molina can’t run again, the field will
be open for a party representative from his PP party to run against a range of other candidates,
which will almost certainly include Sandra Torres of UNE, the ex-wife of ex-President Álvaro
Colom (did you follow all that?). At the same time, all seats in congress will be up for grabs so
local politics will be an active part of the mix. How it all plays out and which candidate moves to
a more confrontational role against the hot and sensitive subject of mining is yet to be seen (a
week is a long time in politics, it’s an eternity in Central American politics, and we’re talking
about a year here) but it’s safe to say that 2015 is set to be politically more turbulent for mining
companies in Guatemala.
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Peru: Antamina workers to strike
There’s a somewhat convoluted system to get through before a body of employees can go on
officially sanctioned and “legal” strike in Peru, but the main union that covers 1,600 or so of the
total 2,800 or so workers at the big Antamina mine (ownership 33.75% BHP, 33.75% Glencore,
22.5% Teck, 10% Mitsubishi) has done just that after exhausting negotiation channels with
management and is now set to go on strike on November 10th, (17) with the bone of contention
being (as usual) pay and conditions.
Market Watching
Bear Creek (BCM.v): My wake up call
I’ve been mulling over a trade in Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) these last few weeks, due to the
favourable turn being taken by the regional political scene in Puno while tempered by the drop
in silver. Up to now I’ve resisted a purchase but the last two editions have made it plain that
I’ve been tempted, with the silver price the only thing holding me back. So comes a
conversation with a friend and industry professional in Lima last week, who cut through all the
crap. I can’t quote him verbatim (memory unsound) but can report his words, which were that
yes Luque Mamani is going to win but so what? Silver at $17/oz is silver at $17/oz, Corani
cannot work at that price, therefore I should stop losing sleep and mulling over a trade until
and unless the market price for silver improves. Until it does, Corani and therefore Bear Creek is
going nowhere.
This is correct. It’s one of those situations where calling the political background correctly has
been fun, but other pieces that need to drop into place for a trade to happen are doing so, thus
the pol risk call becomes academic. A long on BCM is off the table until silver goes higher, end.
Nino Coppero, HudBay’s (HBM) (HBM.to) bad apple
On the blog Thursday, I made reference to a looming insider trading scandal that involves a
lawyer at HudBay (HBM) (HBM.to) who’s apparently been caught buying into Augusta Resource
Corp (AZC) (AZC.to) as he knew HBM was about to make its move and buy the smaller
company. Here’s some more on that.
His name is Nino Coppero and according to the gossip (which is currently rife in Lima where he
lives and works...well, worked) he with or without an associate, depending on which version
you hear set up a satellite company in New York and filled it full of AZC stocks. It’s around this
point when you start wondering just how stupid/greedy/both this guy must be, because doing
this kind of thing is one issue, doing it on the turf of the SEC (a body with far sharper teeth
then anything in Canada or Peru) is another level of dumb.
However, there are several aspects of this story that may turn into a can of worms for HudBay.
One is that Coppero came to the company when HBM bought out Norsemont in order to get its
hands on the Constancia project (now nearing its first day of production, of course). Coppero
worked for Norsemont and according to (retroactive and somewhat schadenfreude-tinged)
gossip, put more than a couple of noses out of joint when there for a couple of reasons. Firstly,
when running the community relations program for Norsemont there’s talk of a $5m payment
from company to community leaders that apparently dissolved into thin air and was
unaccounted/unaccountable later. Second, when HBM completed the buyout it laid off just
about everyone on the Norsemont staff, saying that they weren’t needed any longer because
their posts were already covered internally by HBM people. All except for one person, one Nino
Coppero, who became a member of the HBM legal staff in a smooth transition.
Coppero hasn’t limited himself to inside trading of AZC stock either. Word also has it that he’s
been happily spending HBM money on expensive gifts for a lady of his fancy (who is, sadly, not
his long-term partner) including a $3,000 handbag, which may may proved to be his downfall
as an internal check on expense account items picked up on this and after his explanation for
20

the purchase unravelled (I know the story behind this one, but it’s too gossipy even for this
rather salacious report today and in the end non-material, so I’m going to save a couple of
people’s blushes) a deeper audit got the red light really flashing and people looking into
Coppero’s activities. The rest, as they say, is history. Embezzlement history, but history.
Which brings us to Panoro Minerals (PML.v), because we understand from a third source that
Coppero has been directly involved in HBM’s
interest in this company and one of the
proponents of HBM’s decision to take 10% or
so of the junior. Details on this part of the
story are still vague (most of the gossip is
around the illegal AZC trading), but it
wouldn’t surprise your author in the slightest
to see PML affected by collateral damage as
this story unfolds.
Needless to say, all this does not and will not
reflect well upon HBM the company, its
corporate controls, strategy or the way it’s
gone about doing business in The Americas.
For what it’s worth, this 2014 year-to-date chart pitting HBM against GDX and the copper ETF
COPX shows that HBM has had a tough time since September, but no worse than the rest of
the market.
Endeavour Silver (EDR.to) (EXK) inside trades
A slight return to the message conveyed in the RIO.to piece today. Here’s what Endeavour
Silver President and CEO Bradford Cooke has been doing with his portfolio recently:
To resume that little lot:
• First you exercise 200,000 of your options priced at $3.29, for a nominal cost of
$658,000.
• Then you sell 190,000 of the newly minted shares for total gross proceeds $850,966
• Which means you finish with a cash profit of $192,966 and 10,000 shares of EDR.to
And that’s not a bad week’s work. Before
tax, of course.
A cursory look at the 2014 price chart for
EDR might suggest that he’s been selling
share sin his own company at something
close to a trading bottom or resistance
point for the shares, which makes the
timing of these sales by the CEO that
much more interesting.
21

Conclusion
IKN285 is done, we end with bullet points:
• Even though the meeting was with the cucumber cool, enigmatic and sphinx-like
Courtney Chamberlain, Minera IRL is sending out the signals that a deal is finally within
reach for the Ollachea financing. There’s no deal on the table yet, but talks are clearly
advanced and the thing with the stock now is that any deal will send it higher. When
you’re priced for failure, anything except failure is classed as a win.
• The other minnow stock that catches the eye this week is Coro Mining (COP.to),
because things are starting to gel in Chile and the news from the San Jorge deal seems
to have been unfairly ignored by a market that doesn’t see its potential as a real near-
term cash booster for our beaten up copper play.
• And one other: AQM Copper (AQM.v) may be in for a quiet 2015, but it’s cheap as
anything out there now and its project is liked well enough by main partner Teck. At
some point it’ll be deemed cheap and at the end of this stage just commenced there is
a feas study on a multi-billion pound copper deposit as prize.
• Watching Kinross sell FDN just days after I was musing over the value of its asset book
was slightly bizarre. Mind you, it didn’t do the share much much good. A work in
progress and the smallest of holdings today.
• Bear Creek (BCM.v) is off the table as a potential buy until silver recovers. Politics or
not, it’s the economy stupid.
• Last week was fear and loathing in Lima. Emphasis on fear, with the loathing coming
from a HudBay that might be in hot water for the tricks pulled by its now ex-legal guy.
The top long-term pick is Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to). I thank you in advance for any feedback.
Flash updates will be sent promptly if required by events
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Otto
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/10/fomc-end-of-qe3-shorter-statement.html
(2) http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1432672/santacruz-silver-announces-third-quarter-2014-production-results
(3) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kinross-announces-sale-fruta-del-214933485.html
(4) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/focus-signs-joint-venture-agreement-144608564.html
(5) http://www.ifa-singapore2014.org/
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(6) http://www.ifa-singapore2014.org/Portals/27/Documents/2014_Crossroads_Singapore_registered_companies.pdf
(7) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/b2gold-corp-third-quarter-2014-182426566.html
(8) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/coro-announces-approval-berta-project-152004823.html
(9) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/coro-signs-definitive-agreement-san-153938287.html
(10) http://www.losandes.com.ar/article/empresarios-mineros-apuran-la-aprobacion-del-proyecto-san-jorge
(11) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ngex-announces-positive-result-preliminary-213000469.html
(12) http://www.incakolanews.blogspot.com/2014/10/ngex-resources-ngqto-pea.html
(13) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/aqm-announces-start-zafranal-pre-104500752.html
(14) http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1738907-uruguay-ballottage-tabare-vazquez-luis-lacalle-pou
(15) http://www.pachamamaradio.org/22-10-2014/onpe-oficializo-segunda-vuelta-al-100-de-actas-procesadas.html
(16) http://www.prensalibre.com/opinion/Por-supuesto_0_1235276750.html
(17) http://www.aminera.com/index.php/mineria-internacional/item/7658-trabajadores-de-antamina-acuerdan-huelga-
para-el-10-de-noviembre.html?
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2013
Closed in 2013 closed close price
USA Graphite USGT feb'13 U$0.93 08-ene-13 U$0.17 81.7% short tgt made/trade closed
Lachlan Star LSA.to feb'13 C$1.50 30-sep-12 C$0.95 -36.7% sold to reduce port risk
United Silver USC.to mar'13 C$0.21 28-oct-12 C$0.095 -54.8% small Ag sector trade, failed
Aurcana Corp AUN.v apr'13 C$1.07 11-nov-12 C$0.55 -48.6% closed on poor YE results
Gold Res Corp GORO apr'13 U$14.11 25-ene-13 U$9.38 33.5% short tgt made/trade closed
Marlin Gold MLN.v apr'13 C$0.075 10-feb-13 C$0.065 -13.3% closed trade
Bear Creek BCM.v may'13 C$2.58 01-abr-13 C$2.40 -7.0% near-term, time ran out
Lupaka Gold LPK.to may'13 C$1.12 23-oct-11 C$0.32 -71.4% towel thrown in
Tahoe Resources TAHO may'13 U$18.62 08-abr-13 U$14.70 21.1% took profit on ST short
OceanaGold OGC.to jun'13 C$3.03 16-sep-12 C$1.18 -61.1% sold on gold drop
IMPACT Silver IPT.v jun'13 C$1.14 13-ene-13 C$0.62 -45.6% sold on silver drop
Duran Ventures DRV.v jun'13 C$0.045 10-may-13 C$0.025 -44.4% ST trade never worked
Plata Latina PLA.v jun'13 C$0.79 10-abr-12 C$0.13 -83.5% closed
Bellhaven BHV.v jun'13 C$0.065 03-jun-13 C$0.12 84.6% closed ST trade
B2Gold BTO.to aug'13 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.44 12.1% sold 1/2 to raise cash
Colossus Min. CSI.to aug'13 C$0.72 24-jul-13 C$0.79 9.7% closed thru nerves on future
Pretium Res PVG.to aug'13 C$8.20 11-jun-13 C$10.14 23.7% closed to raise cash
Bear Creek BCM.v sep'13 C$2.06 30-may-13 C$2.20 6.8% sold on pol risk decision
MAG Silver MVG oct'13 U$7.00 12-sep-13 U$5.62 19.6% near-term short
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'13 U$9.52 03-may-13 U$4.98 47.7% short tgt made, covered
AQM Copper AQM.v oct'13 C$0.31 16-oct-11 C$0.125 -59.7% closed failed trade
First Majestic AG nov'13 U$11.51 07-nov-13 U$10.50 8.8% v near term short, closed
Fortuna Silver FSM nov'13 U$4.00 07-nov-13 U$3.68 8.0% v near term short, closed
Primero PPP nov'13 U$5.70 07-nov-13 U$5.75 -0.9% v near term short, closed
Starcore Intl SAM.to nov'13 C$0.235 08-sep-13 C$0.17 -27.7% ST trade didn't work, sm loss
B2Gold BTO.to dec'13 C$2.22 28-nov-12 C$2.16 -2.7% closed ST trade to raise cash
23

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2012
Closed in 2012 closed close PPS
Soltoro SOL.v jan'12 C$0.87 07-nov-11 C$0.94 8.0% cash moved to BCM.v
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to feb'12 C$0.84 13-oct-10 C$0.98 16.7% trade closed on ELG.v offer
Minefinders MFN feb'12 U$11.68 17-nov-11 U$14.80 26.7% target made, trade closed
Iron Creek IRN.v mar'12 C$0.58 26-sep-10 C$0.31 -46.6% time up on small bad trade
U.S. Silver USA.to apr'12 C$2.18 15-mar-12 C$1.86 -14.7% ST trade no good, cut loss
Augusta Res. AZC.to may'12 C$3.10 29-jan-12 C$2.07 -33.2% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Bellhaven BHV.v may'12 C$0.50 22-sep-10 C$0.28 -44.0% new mgmt not impressive
Zincore Metals ZNC.to may'12 C$0.325 29-jul-11 C$0.17 -47.7% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Soltoro SOL.v may'12 C$0.70 18-mar-11 C$0.41 -41.4% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
U.S. Silver USA.to aug'12 C$1.78 27-jul-12 C$1.36 -23.6% fail ST trade close pre split
Estrella Gold EST.v aug'12 C$0.91 27-mar-11 C$0.14 -84.6% Closed on port realignment
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'12 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.32 397.2% sell call $6.17/ Mar25
Strait Minerals SRD.v oct'12 C$0.125 09-dec-11 C$0.12 -4.0% closing coverage til FY13
Sunward Res SWD.to oct'12 C$1.47 13-mar-11 C$1.21 -17.7% sold, took loss
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'12 U$21.47 09-sep-12 U$17.40 19.0% Short trade closed
Yellowhead Min. YMI.to nov'12 C$1.00 01-apr-12 C$0.63 -37.0% sold, took loss
Primero Mining PPP nov'12 U$7.26 07-oct-12 U$6.73 7.3% Short trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v nov'12 C$3.38 07-nov-11 C$3.72 10.1% Took small profit
Vena Resources VEM.to dec'12 C$0.70 31-may-09 C$0.18 -74.3% Failed trade (caps F)
Galway Res GWY.v dec'12 C$2.19 24-nov-12 C$2.30 5.0% closed good ST arb trade
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2011
Closed in 2011 closed close PPS
Sunward Res SWD.v jan'11 C$1.05 21-nov-10 C$1.63 55.2% target made, trade closed
Serengeti Res SIR.v mar'11 C$0.245 05-dec-10 C$0.285 16.3% sold pre-tgt, ST trade fail
Fronteer Gold FRG apr'11 U$2.37 03-may-09 U$15.24 543.0% buyout, trade closed
Minefinders MFN apr'11 U$9.09 07-nov-10 U$16.89 85.8% target made, trade closed
Metalline Min. MMG may'11 U$1.04 26-jan-11 U$0.89 -14.4% exit, resource disappointed
Peregrine Met PGM.to jul'11 C$0.87 06-mar-11 C$2.60 198.9% buyout offer, closed
Dynasty Metals DMM.to jul'11 C$4.20 03-may-09 C$2.85 -32.1% Sold. Fail. Move on.
Aura Silver AUU.v aug'11 C$0.22 13-oct-10 C$0.16 -36.4% Bad pick. Take loss
U.S. Silver USA.v aug'11 C$0.52 26-jan-11 C$0.71 36.5% closed to make room
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'11 C$2.80 12-may-11 C$4.27 52.5% target made, trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v sep'11 C$3.80 27-may-11 C$4.17 9.7% macro sell call victim
Minefinders MFN sep'11 U$14.70 10-aug-11 U$15.15 3.1% macro sell call victim
Great Panther GPR.to sep'11 C$3.03 22-aug-11 C$2.64 -12.9% macro sell call victim
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'11 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.36 400.9% sold 20%, macro sell call
Focus Ventures FCV.v nov'11 C$0.40 20-apr-10 C$0.20 -50.0% cut losses, bad trade
Regulus Res. REG.v dec'11 C$1.17 14-aug-11 C$0.52 -55.6% cut on news of poor 43-101
2009 and 2010 closed positions in appendices below
24

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2010
Closed in 2010 closed close PPS
B2Gold Corp BTO.to Jan'10 C$0.88 08-nov-09 C$1.49 68.2% target made, trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v Jan'10 C$0.18 23-aug-09 C$0.40 122.2% target made, trade closed
MAG Silver MVG mar'10 U$5.60 23-nov-09 U$7.28 30.0% closed in pdac week
Riverside Res RRI.v mar'10 C$0.435 20-sep-09 C$0.60 37.9% closed in pdac week
Amarillo Gold AGC.v mar'10 C$0.81 31-may-09 C$0.70 -13.6% closed in pdac week
B2Gold Corp BTO.to apr'10 C$1.24 18-feb-10 C$1.50 21.0% target made, trade closed
Lumina Copper LCC.v apr'10 C$0.84 14-jun-09 C$1.55 51.2% total position now sold
Troy Resources TRY.to may'10 C$1.10 03-may-09 C$2.25 104.5% sold on negative results
AuEx Ventures XAU.to may'10 C$2.51 24-may-09 C$3.38 34.7% trade closed
Nevada Copper NCU.to jun'10 C$3.27 14-mar-10 C$2.03 -37.9% need to lower Cu exposure
Carpathian Gold CPN.to jun'10 C$0.39 14-mar-10 C$0.35 -10.3% too exposed to cap raising
Amerix PM Corp APM.v jun'10 C$0.065 08-nov-09 C$0.05 -23.1% victim of macro bear
Antares Minerals ANM.v jun'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$2.10 47.9% sold half
Vena Resources VEM.to jun'10 C$0.37 31-may-09 C$0.23 -37.8% sold half
Minera Andes MAI.to sep'10 C$0.75 28-jul-10 C$0.95 26.7% ST trade closed
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to sep'10 C$0.52 01-aug-10 C$0.75 44.2% target made, trade closed
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'10 C$1.45 25-may-10 C$2.01 34.5% target made, trade closed
Blue Sky Uran BSK.v oct'10 C$0.41 19-may-10 C$0.22 -46.3% v small v bad trade closed
Dia Bras Expl DIB.v oct'10 C$0.14 30-aug-09 C$0.35 150.0% target made, trade closed
S. Amer. Silver SAC.to nov'10 C$1.38 24-oct-10 C$1.60 -15.9% loss on short, small fail
Ventana Gold VEN.to nov'10 C$7.92 27-jun-10 C$13.51 70.6% trade closed on buyout
Lumina Copper LCC.v nov'10 C$1.42 11-aug-10 C$3.65 157.0% trade closed
Antares Minerals ANM.v dec'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$8.40 491.5% trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.v dec'10 C$0.69 23-mar-10 C$2.16 213.0% trade closed
Coro Mining COP.to dec'10 C$0.585 03-oct-10 C$1.24 112.0% target made, trade closed
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2009
Closed positions closed closing PPS
Cardero Res CDY/CDU.to May'09 U$1.20 03-May-09 U$0.87 -27.5% sold on negative news
Eastmain Res. ER.to May'09 C$1.04 06-May-09 C$1.315 26.4% trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v May'09 C$0.165 03-May-09 C$0.235 42.4% trade closed
Latin Amer Min. LAT.v May'09 C$0.12 03-May-09 C$0.158 29.2% trade closed
Aquiline Res. AQI.to July'09 C$2.03 16-Jun-09 C$1.68 -17.2% took loss, bad timing
Chariot Resources CHD.to Aug'09 C$0.20 12-Jul-09 C$0.415 107.5% trade closed
Castle Gold CSG.v Sep'09 C$0.64 02-Aug-09 C$0.60 -6.3% ST trade didn't work out
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to Sep'09 C$2.30 12-May-09 C$4.50 95.7% profit taken
Los Andes Copper LA.v Sep'09 C$0.09 21-Jun-09 C$0.09 0% trade closed
Pediment Gold PEZ.to Oct'09 C$0.80 09-Aug-09 C$1.00 25.0% trade closed
Minera Andes MAI.to Oct'09 C$0.68 03-May-09 C$0.71 4.4% too much bad news
Dynasty Metals DMM.to Nov'09 C$4.18 03-May-09 C$6.01 43.8% half sold
Rusoro Mining RML.v Nov'09 C$0.55 03-May-09 C$0.57 3.6% underperformed
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
25