IKN #266Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 266, June 15th 2014
Contents
This Week: Something just changed for the better in the precious metals market (maybe), I
am your Rio Alto pumper.
Fundamental Analysis: Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) (RIOM): A new company, new target price.
Stocks to Follow: Overview, Minera IRL (MIRL.L) (IRL.to), Timmins Gold (TGD) (TMM.to),
True Gold (TGM.v), Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) (RIOM), GoldQuest Mining (GQC.v), Focus
Ventures (FCV.v), Santacruz Silver (SCZ.v).
Copper Basket: Overview.
Low Cost Producer Basket: Overview.
Regional Politics: Colombia has decided: It’s Santos, Argentina: Keeping an eye on the 2015
Presidentials map, Peru: Political party financing, illegal mining, drugs etc Uruguay: Aratiri
stuck, Coeur CEO’s opinion on Peru as a mining destination.
Market Watching: next week
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Something just changed for the better in the precious metals market. Maybe.
I added that “maybe” on the end because however much I’d like to be more bold or definite
about the call, one week (nay,
three days) of evidence is much too
thin and we’ve suffered through too
many false dawns as it is. But last
week’s market action looked great
for the miners, whichever way you
examine it.
One of the very few charts I’ve
cared about and keep caring about
over the years is the Gold/Silver
Ratio (GSR), because when it’s
working it can give a useful signal
about the risk appetite of our
sector (very quickly a higher GSR
means gold’s loved more than silver
which means the market doesn’t
want to take on as much risk or is
battening down the hatches, the
opposite applies too, of course).
1

That looks like a change in tide to me, and when coupled with the way stocks bounced hard
while gold put in reasonable but small percentage gains, it looks as though people are ready to
bolt on more risk to their portfolios.
Once again, I remind readers the same as I need to remind myself on occasion: We’re investors
in companies at The IKN Weekly, not investors in metals. Those companies just happen to
make (or want to make) metals as their finished product, but the difference is still a vast one.
I, Rio Alto pumper
Yes, I took it upon myself last week over at the blog to do a bit of shameless pumping for my
biggest position stock. Many of you noticed enough to send in remarks and I particularly liked
the way PB addressed me as “Dear RIO pumper” in his mail before talking about another issue
(by the way PB, we’ll do that next week). Reasons I decided to do a bit of shameless stock
promo are:
1) I rarely do it on the open blog and thought it’d make a change
2) Once I saw that the information gleaned in last week’s trip was apparently making a
difference, it made sense to share and help things along.
3) I was already getting comments about last week’s piece from people who are not IKN
Weekly subscribers (errr...please don’t share with others, yeah?) so the info was
obviously travelling around. Therefore sharing the Flash update wasn’t going to do
much harm
4) We the readers are probably already in full positions of RIO.to, so I didn’t feel as
though it was going to cramp anyone’s style.
5) I enjoyed it and it made a nice change.
However, it was a bit of a one off and i’m not planning to follow up, neither on RIO.to or
promoting any other stock in the same way.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) (RIOM): A new company, a new target price
Last week a whole report and political risk call on New RIO, one that came with a dose of
personal humble pie. I’d called SUE incorrectly and that was a mistake, but after seeing first
hand Shahuindo, including the big and ongoing progress being made there as well as the
benign social situation (Cajamarca or not), the fears that RIO has bought a bad asset are all but
gone. This week we do the simple stuff. We have a look at how the “New RIO” shapes up
economically and what we can expect from the share price going forward. It’s straightforward,
it comes on bite-sized chunks, it has a number at the end.
I’m keeping this model as simple as possible (underlined for good reason) because we’re still a
long way out from Shahuindo producing any gold, but even if we keep things realistically vague
we get to a fairly good place valuation-wise. So what follows are the main variables and what
we need to consider in the mix for New RIO, then what pops out at the end is a valuation
based on our current RIO model but adjusted for the incorporation of the new asset.
The new share count
This all-share deal means RIO’s share count is going to get bigger come September and
closure. For the shares outstanding of New RIO, the house best guess and the one we’re using
for valuation purposes is 315m shares out. That’s worked out by assuming the pro-rata number
as announced in the May 21st merger NR is correct. That’s 340m S/O, but we now subtract the
27m shares that RIO has bought from AEM. This brings us to 313m which I round up (they can
throw some exercised things in there) to 315m. Simple.
2

Raising the capex
RIO needs to raise cahs to build its new mine. As mentioned last week, I’m expecting the capex
bill for Shahuindo to drop considerably from the current $130m used by SUE.to in its feasibility
study. The best guess estimate is $90m from here, which begs the question as to how New Rio
plans to pay for the Shahuindo build-out. To be honest I think this is going to be pretty easy
and on very favourable terms for shareholders, to whit:
As RIO in its May 21st merger announcement stated New RIO would hold ~$45m in treasury,
and RIO.to has just used ~$30m of that to buy Agnico Eagle’s (AEM) shares of SUE.to, this
means New RIO will start life with around $15m in cash.
We have perhaps eight quarters of La Arena production before the final cheques need to be
written for the Shahuindo build out, so that’s two years of cash flow from its profitable.
On more than one occasion in the last few weeks, CEO Black has made it clear that RIO.to is in
good credit position and ready to take out a line of debt financing when ready. I’d expect that
to happen and I’d expect it to happen sooner rather than later. Although a $50m line would
probably be enough, I’d expect them to go higher, perhaps $70m or $75m. The obvious
advantage is that there is no further share dilution through raising this way and the line of
credit can be left on standby until needed.
Bottom line here; Once the market sees that RIO has access to credit and won’t need to raise
via equity in order to build Shahuindo, we’ll get more thumbs up from the money people.
Production outlook
As for the shape of production in New RIO and a stab at its forward revenues, here’s my best
guess as to what lies in store for the company.
Rio Alto Mining: Forecast annual production
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
source: IKN estimates *assumes 2/3rd AuEq Cu, 1/3 Au at La Arena Stage 2
3
)2
anerA
rof
qEuA(
uA
zO
La Arena 2*
Shahuindo
La Arena 1
Between now and 2016 we’ll see the company churn out at the current rate, until phase one of
Shahuindo comes online. From then on, New RIO is set to be a company that produces gold (or
gold equivalent) from its currently held assets at a rate that turns around 350,000 oz per year
and won’t drop under 300k for the foreseeable future. I’ve stopped the chart at 2025, but
assuming Stage 2 gets the go-ahead it has resources for 20 years at 80,000 tonnes per day and
as it plans to start at 30ktpd, there’s no feed supply or mine life problems there. As for
Shahuindo, 15 years is where we can begin to calculate things and that will push us out to
beyond 2030. That’s more than enough for our purposes, methinks.
In short, this company that produces gold at U$1k total, all-inclusive, all-in costs will be set on
churning out 350k oz AuEq per year all the way to the horizon, so if we call gold at its current
price for the whole long decade or two that’s your ballpark minimum $100m per year in bottom
line profits, year in year out.

The economics
To go a little further, here’s how we see the cash flows analysis working in the years up to and
including 2017, when the first full year of Shahuindo kick in.
Rio Alto: Forward sales forecasts
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
Total sales ($m) 268.5 286.0 299.0 429.0
Cash COGS 154.0 154.0 161.0 214.5
Depreciation 30.0 34.0 37.0 40.0
SGA 12.0 18.0 22.0 22.5
Op income 72.5 80.0 84.0 167.0
Interest 5.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
Workers Part. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tax 20.2 18.0 19.0 39.8
Net income 47.2 54.0 57.0 119.3
Shares out 315 315 315 315
EPS $ 0.15 0.17 0.18 0.38
FCF/share 0.24 0.28 0.30 0.50
Sources: IKN estimates
This assumes a flat U$1,300/oz gold price and a few other variables, too:
• Production outlook as above
• Share count as above
• A flat operating cash cost rate of U$700/oz. Best guess on experience and that, but
obviously difficult to fit a single price into a longer-term model.
• G&A that grows slightly as Shahuindo comes on line, but still kept tight compared to
peers.
• U$1 = CAD$0.90
• Debt servicing at $8m per annum on the new financial debt
• Effective tax rate at 25%, instead of Peru’s standard corporate tax rate of 30%. This is
a best guess based upon tax breaks that the company will enjoy as it ploughs free cash
flow back into capital projects inside the country and to be honest, I think I’m being
very conservative by using 25% and there’s more discount than that. But it’s a start
point.
• Other minor matters, all of which are very much in line with our previous models of
RIO.to.
Once that lot is in, we can offer you an initial price target for your consideration:
Sales and earnings RIO.to: Initial target price & valuation data
2014 2015 2016 2017 At U$1300/oz gold
Sales ($m) 268 286 304 444 12 month target $2.50 (based on 6x EPS
Sales growth 7% 6% 46% Upside to target 15% for 2017)
EPS 0.15 0.17 0.18 0.38 Mkt cap ($m) $384 Enterprise value $410
Cash flow 0.25 0.28 0.30 0.51 P/sales (2014) 1.34 EV/sales (2014) 1.43
P/E (2014) 14.5 EV/EBITDA (2014) 4.0
P/E (2015) 12.7 EV/EBITDA (2015) 3.6
P/E (2016) 12.0 EV/EBITDA (2016) 3.4
At this point, it’s not feasible to use a higher multiple for earnings on a project that’s only going
to show its true worth from 2017 onwards, so a 6X PE multiple is where we set things.
However, that must be pointed to as low for this type of production size, coming as it does with
4

clear financial profitability, so once things solidify I’d expect that multiple to be re-rated by the
market. However, even at a modest U$1,300/oz gold price (yes I know it’s lower than that
today. It won’t be for long) and a 6X PE, New RIO returns a higher target price than Friday’s
close. In my view that’s where we stand today, pre-deal close and pre-RIO’s plans for the
development of Shahuindo. In short, there’s room for more appreciation.
However, what we really need to do is make a leap of faith and assume that 1) the deal closes
correctly 2) RIO gets to move forward and start building its new mine by the end of this year
and 3) financing is forthcoming. Under such circumstances I think we’d be justified in attaching
a more normal PE to New RIO and that’s shown via the yellow highlight block of this table:
Rio Alto: Target sensitivity at various gold price & P/Es
Avg Au (U$/oz) Target at 10X PE Target at 8X PE Target at 6X PE
1200 3.30 2.64 1.98
1250 3.73 2.99 2.24
1300 4.16 3.33 2.50
1350 4.60 3.68 2.76
1400 5.03 4.02 3.02
1450 5.46 4.37 3.28
1500 5.89 4.71 3.54
source: IKN calcs
As you see, there are various gold prices and Pes used to generate multiple price targets, so
pick the one you’re most comfortable with. Personally I’m good with U$13,00/oz gold at a 8X
PE by the end of this year, which points towards a target of $3.33/share. However, you’ll also
note how New RIO will benefit greatly from gold price leverage and if we get the rally into the
end of 2014, price targets begin to look juicy indeed. This table is the same dataset as above,
but adjusted for the potential percentage price increase compared to Friday’s close of $2.17:
Rio Alto: Percentage upsides at various gold price & P/Es
Avg Au (U$/oz) % upside 10X PE % upside 8X PE % upside 6X PE
1200 52.07% 21.66% -8.76%
1250 71.89% 37.79% 3.23%
1300 91.71% 53.46% 15.21%
1350 111.98% 69.59% 27.19%
1400 131.80% 85.25% 39.17%
1450 151.61% 101.38% 51.15%
1500 171.43% 117.05% 63.13%
source: IKN calcs
Therefore, although there are plenty of price bracket in which I can see New RIO turning into a
double, we’re going to aim lower for the time being and assume three things:
1) The deal and then the project goes according to plan. I now believe those to be very
reasonable assumptions
2) The market rewards the bigger and longer mine life New RIO with a re-rating, which is
represented here by a bump-up of its PE multiple from 6X to 8X (which is still hardly
excessive). Again, that’s a reasonable assumption at this point.
3) Gold averages U$1,300/oz. We’re under that right now, but I’m going to stick with the
average call for 2014.
With those three assumptions, our new price target for New RIO is generated at $3.3s,
representing a 53.5% upside to Friday’s close.
5

That’s where I think this stock is going and that’s why it’s back as a Top Pick.
Stocks to Follow
A better week for the list with just one stock losing ground since last weekend (SRL.v). Two
others remained unchanged (LRA.v, EOM.to) which means a full nine of our basket stocks
enjoyed a winning week and about time too. I won’t list them all, but the top movers in
percentage terms were Coro Mining (COP.to up 23.1%), Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to up 17.3%),
Timmins Gold (TGD up 13.5%), Santacruz Silver (SCZ.v up 11.8%) and True Gold (TGM.v up
9.1%, all worthy a decent results.
Overall a strong rebound after weeks of drudgery, all on the back of a gold price that moved up
by 1.95% (using GLD as the marker). It’s been quite a while since we had back-to-back winning
weeks for gold (the two weeks ending April 8th to be exact) so a good week this time would
give extra impetus to our potential rally.
We currently have 12 open positions on our ‘Stocks to Follow’ list, three less than our self-
imposed maximum. Four are in the green, one is unchanged since inception, seven are red.
6

Reco Current
Company Ticker this week Avg Price date PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
Top Picks
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to hold C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$2.17 -5.7% Top pick, revised tgt June 15
Recommended long positions (in current order of preference)
Focus Ventures FCV.v str buy C$0.23 01-jul-12 C$0.265 13.0% tgt 50c, added, avged up
Timmins Gold TGD buy U$1.38 09-apr-14 U$1.68 21.7% adding 3rd time, $2 tgt
Minera IRL IRL.to ADDING C$0.28 22-jul-12 C$0.18 -35.7% still adding this week
Dalradian Res DNA.to hold C$0.65 27-oct-13 C$0.87 33.8% Going well, tgt up to $1.70
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v buy C$0.295 27-oct-13 C$0.295 0.0% drillplay spec
True Gold TGM.v hold C$0.395 02-feb-14 C$0.42 6.3% LT hold, takeover play
Santacruz Silver SCZ.v hold C$1.04 26-jan-14 C$0.85 -18.3% silver/M&A spec, rel. small
Lara Expl. LRA.v hold C$1.15 08-apr-12 C$0.72 -37.4% solid biz model, LT hold
Eco Oro Min. EOM.to hold C$0.48 22-sep-13 C$0.26 -45.8% paramo resolution missing
Recommended short positions
None at moment
Smaller/Riskier
Coro Mining COP.to spec buy C$0.125 26-jan-14 C$0.08 -36.0% Cu spec play, can add
Salazar Res SRL.v hold C$0.28 02-mar-14 C$0.165 -41.1% small risky spec, vg rocks
Closed in 2014 closed close price
Fortuna Silver FVI.to jan'14 C$2.80 23-dec-13 C$3.19 13.9% small ST trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to jan'14 C$2.06 07-jun-13 C$2.30 11.7% trading position finally closed
Network Expl. NET.v feb'14 C$0.01 22-jul-12 C$0.005 -50.0% position closed, did nothing
Tahoe Resources TAHO feb'14 U$13.10 08-apr-13 U$21.72 -65.8% short closed due to reality
Darwin Res DAR.v mar'14 C$0.10 14-jul-12 C$0.045 -55.0% tiny risk play dropped
B2Gold BTO.to mar'14 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.35 9.1% closed to free up capital
Pretium Res PVG mar'14 U$5.38 22-nov-13 U$6.50 -20.8% short closed as port longer
Gold Res Corp GORO may'14 U$5.07 26-jan-14 U$4.12 16.7% Re-short now full position
Bear Creek Min BCM.v may'14 C$1.63 23-mar-14 C$2.05 25.8% Ag/pol risk trade, avged down
2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 closed positions in appendices below
Now for some notes on a selection of the above stocks.
Minera IRL (MIRL.L) (IRL.to): Still adding. I picked at a few last week but there’s still
room for more, so the accumulation will continue in the week ahead. The cost average has
dropped a little to 28c and I’m looking to shave maybe another 2c from that once all is done
and dusted.
What we’re looking for this week from IRL is news of the construction permit award out of the
relevant bureaucratic office in the Peru government. It’s due any moment and although you can
never guarantee timing from Peru public servants, at least next week is the right window. As
regards last week’s note on IRL, a couple of mails arrived that (paraphrasing) accused me of
being rather too cryptic about the reasons to add at the moment. I agree.
Timmins Gold (TGD) (TMM.to): This one also did really well last week and the surge seems
to be based on a market that’s now ganging up against the current management team and
siding with Sentry and its proposed proxy slate. Simply put, the thinking is that the board
changes will remove an entrenched management thereby opening the company up to a friendly
takeover deal and as far as I’m concerned, if that what it takes to move this company above $2
(assuming a $1.3k gold price) and to my idea of its fair valuation, I’ll take it. No need to sell
into this move, every reason to hold for my price later.
7

True Gold (TGM.v): Fair to say that this stock is keen on keeping itself front and centre via
the use of news releases. This week’s news was pretty decent too, as on Monday TGM
announced (1) a drill intercept that’s good enough to demand a quoted chunk of the NR:
“...step-out drilling at the Karma Gold Project's Nami deposit ("Nami")
intersected 29.5 g/t gold over 6.0 metres and extended the deposit 250
metres north, along a corridor 150 metres wide. This previously untested
extension has the potential to add an additional 50% to the strike length of
the current Nami deposit outlined in the Feasibility Study. The deposit remains
open for further expansion.”
So far Nami has been a minor part of the whole Karma concession resource, with around 100k
oz Au in oxide and sulphide rock in total if you add up the M+I and the inferred. This oxide-only
intercept clearly adds plenty more to that and the company is jazzed about its potential to add
serious ounces to the whole project and with good reason, too. TGM has always maintained
there’s a whole lot more gold to discover at Karma and most of the disparate targets are still
open in most directions, so this Nami hit fits right in with their claims. It’s also exactly the sort
of thing you’d want to show to a prospective buyer for the company and as that’s really why
we’re long this stock, the news last week was wholly good to my eyes.
To the market’s, too. Up 9.1% with strong volumes (at least 400k every day, Thursday 900k)
it’s becoming a real live trading vehicle in the gold exploreco subsector.
Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) (RIOM): We do RIO in ‘Fundamentals...’ today, here we’ll do news
and trading. First the news last week (2) of the resignation of RIO.to director Roger Norwich.
I’ve checked up on that and can confirm that it’s a genuine and serious health problem, the
type that means you stop what you’re doing and concentrate on getting better. This isn’t the
place for gossip on the details and that’s all you’re getting, because it’s all any of us need
outside of Mr Norwich’s family circle.
As for trading comment, along with the move in B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG) last week, RIO’s
rebound on great volume are two examples of just why I’m no good at predicting sentiment
trades. In BTO’s case I thought the company had poisoned itself with another obviously dilutive
and shareholder-unfriendly deal that would put people off owning the thing, in RIO’s case it’s
the weight of the impending SUE deal that I thought would keep it quiet and neutral for at least
a few weeks until the deal was closed. Wrong on both counts, both got busy in the market and
showed excellent gains and although the gold rebound obviously helped, this was a market
keen to buy premium junior producers again, no matter what company-specific circumstances
people as silly as me thought might hold them back.
GoldQuest Mining (GQC.v): Another that reacted well to the sector turnaround price-wise,
though in this case the volumes stuck
under 100k every day last week so the
stock wasn’t one of first line interest to
the world.
We’re now six weeks from the NR (3)
announcement of the start of the 2014
drill campaign at Tireo (i.e. greater
Romero) which means we’re just about
entering the time window in which we can
expect first assay results (if the drillers
and the labs were both speedy). I don’t
have any special knowledge of the timing
of results and I’d expect this team to keep
a pretty hermetic lid on the numbers as
they’ve done before, so it’s unlikely we’ll get a volume/price signal before any good news.
8

However, it’s worth underscoring (so let’s do just that in a literal sense) that this one is still very
cheap today and a good risk/reward balance for a drill play where the geols have a good idea of
exactly where they want to stick the holes after doing plenty of prep work. If you fancy a higher
risk spec buy for June 2015, GQC fits the bill.
Focus Ventures (FCV.v): On Monday FCV announced (4) that Tim Oliver was joining the
company as Director of Projects and as the NR stated, his job will be to, “...establish the best
options for the planned process work for the Bayovar 12 phosphate project in northern Peru,
and to develop the engineering, metallurgical and environmental roadmap for the project as it
moves through resource calculation to prefeasibility and bankable feasibility engineering
studies.”. Three thoughts on this:
• Although I’ve never met him I know that peers think highly of Oliver and I’ve had a few
e-mail exchanges with Tim Oliver over time and consider him a top class hire.
• One of the subjects he and I have discussed by mail previous is FCV’s Bayovar 12
project. I know he likes its chances and so it’s both interesting and positive to see this
hire, in my view.
• It’s good to see FCV hiring. What’s more, hiring smartly because a group of (mostly)
geologists have handed over what’s mainly an engineering workload at Bayovar to an
experienced engineer in Tim Oliver. A lot of corporate sense in this and good to see the
delegation aspect.
Overall, this news isn’t of the market wow market mover type but it’s the kind done by a
company getting serious about its project. Wholly positive signals from this one and a darned
good choice of person for the job, too.
Santacruz Silver (SCZ.v): I’ve been holding on quietly to my small silver exploreco exposure
vehicle as it’s dropped with most others, so the rebound last week was welcome. No particular
news here apart from that a couple of weeks ago that stuck the production increase on another
slight delay, just a weekly signal that this sub-sector got a jolt of life. I’ll continue to hold
because this is an asset play, not one about the rush for bottom line profits.
The Copper Basket
After twenty-four weeks of 2014 The Copper Basket is showing a 5.89% gain to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/14 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Augusta Res AZC.to 1.51 144.41 415.90 2.88 90.7%
2 Lumina Copper LCC.v 6.29 44.07 348.15 7.90 25.6%
3 NGEx Resources NGQ.to 1.43 168.71 340.79 2.02 41.3%
4 Reservoir Min. RMC.v 4.97 47.5 290.70 6.12 23.1%
5 Nevada Copper NCU.to 1.35 80.5 189.98 2.36 74.8%
6 Copper Fox CUU.v 0.375 402.96 92.68 0.23 -38.7%
7 Western Copper WRN.to 0.76 93.68 85.25 0.91 19.7%
8 Panoro Minerals PML.v 0.35 204.71 75.74 0.37 5.7%
9 Hot Chili Ltd HCH.ax 0.425 333.11 69.95 0.21 -50.6%
10 Curis Resources CUV.to 0.57 74.79 58.34 0.78 36.8%
11 NovaCopper NCQ.to 1.60 53.4 51.80 0.97 -39.4%
12 Cordoba Min. CDB.v 0.90 58.81 41.76 0.71 -21.1%
13 Coro Mining* COP.to 0.10 159.37 12.75 0.08 -20.0%
14 AQM Copper AQM.v 0.11 139.05 11.82 0.085 -22.7%
15 Oracle Mining OMN.to 0.27 49.03 8.34 0.17 -37.0%
NB: HCH.ax priced in AUD$, rest CAD$ //CDB 2x1 split May'14 Portfolio avg 5.89%
9

Last week our list saw five winners (LCC.v, NCU.to, WRN.to, COP.to, OMN.to), two unchanged
stocks (PML.v, CDB.v) and eight losers (NGQ.to, AZC.to, RMC.v, CUU.v, HCH.ax, NCQ.to,
CUV.to, AQM.v) but despite the numerical
The Copper basket 2014, weekly evolution
disadvantage the winners carried more 25%
weight on the overall average and brought it
20%
back up 1.32% due to the larger percentage
gains in Coro Mining (COP.to up 23.1%), 15%
Nevada Copper (NCU.to up 12.4%) and
10%
Oracle Mining (OMN.to up 9.7%).
5%
Copper prices tried to rally and failed, sinking
0%
back to the just-above-three level and with
them dragging the copper juniors to
underperform their precious metals cousins
(as we see above and as we’ll see below in
the next section.
With that in mind we move to our regular
inventories section and here are your bullet
points:
• Total world stocks dropped by 3,943
metric tonnes (mt), or 1.5%, to stand at
265,396mt.
• Shanghai Futures Exchange copper
warehouse inventories made the biggest
move, down 4,571mt, or 5.3%, to finish
the week at 86,500mt. You can see how
the Shanghai warehouse stocks have
fared in 2014 in the chart below, we’re
hitting new lows again.
• The LME copper warehouse finished down
a puny 150mt at 167,775mt.
• The Comex warehouses copper
inventories moved up a 778mt to
15,692mt.
So another negative week for stocks in Shanghai which was picked up by those who would rah-
rah again (though pointedly, it didn’t work this
time.I read the stuff produced by Scotia on
copper, mainly because they’re permabulls
and are only interested in pumping the metal
in order to shift equities inventory. Once you
have that clear they’re a useful source,
because it’s then possible to judge the
unadulterated bull case against the more
measured arguments from other places. Last
Friday Scotia came out with “Two Datapoints
to Buy Copper” and rather than paraphrase,
here’s the text of both arguments (charts and
tab les accompanied, but they’re not needed
here in order to present the house case)
Strong Demand – Shanghai Copper Inventories are down 4.6kt WoW to 81.9kt….
As shown in the stacked chart below global inventories are now down 46kt YTD to
961kt or 18 days of consumption (very low). The Street was expecting a 500kt
10
ht5naj ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2ram ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpa ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51
source: IKN calcs
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014
220000
200000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
ts13ceD ht5naj ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2ram ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpa ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1enuj ht8 ht51
Mt Cu
source: Cochilco

surplus this year but we are near the halfway point of 2014 and it looks like we are
seeing a balanced / small deficit situation yet copper prices are down 10% YTD (now
at ~$3.00/Ib). We think the disconnect here is well known to buyers and we will
continue to see strong support / buying here.
Copper Supply Related: Seems Mine Concentrate Supply is Tighter Than You
Think … BHP Billiton Gets Lower 2H TC/RC Fees of 95.5 / 9.5 versus 99 / 9.9
Before…. As we discussed earlier this week where we noted that BHP was looking
for lower 2H/14 treatment and refining charges from Asian smelters (they were
looking for low 90’s according to some sources) – looks like they were successful in
lowering their charges by 3.5%.. perhaps not as much as they wanted but Scotia
Mining Sales believes the lower fee is a sign that copper mine supply is not as robust
as many Analysts think. To some degree blame a bit of this on Indonesia but we also
think scrap supply at $3.00/Ib copper is lackluster coupled by ongoing struggles to
ramp-up new projects.
Those aren’t bad arguments in fact. I continue to be very interested in taking a larger position
in copper juniors, with RMC.v, NCQ.to and others on the list. However, I’m still not committing
as the copper market is currently rather strange and the last thing I want to do is be wrong for
the right reasons by buying the right stock but still watching it dive along with the whole sector.
The Low Cost Producer Basket
After 24 weeks, the Low Cost Producer Basket is showing a 11.00% gain to level stakes
company ticker price 1/1/14 Shares out Mkt Cap (Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Freeport FCX 37.74 1040 35.33 33.97 -10.0%
2 Goldcorp GG 21.67 812 20.46 25.20 16.3%
3 Barrick ABX 17.63 1000 16.99 16.99 -3.6%
4 Newmont NEM 23.03 497.87 11.65 23.40 1.6%
5 Silver Wheaton SLW 20.19 357.39 8.08 22.61 12.0%
6 Franco Nevada FNV 40.74 147.01 7.41 50.41 23.7%
7 Agnico Eagle AEM 26.38 173.43 5.77 33.29 26.2%
8 Pan American PAAS 11.70 151.41 2.08 13.72 17.3%
9 B2Gold BTG 2.02 651.4 1.69 2.60 28.7%
10 First Majestic AG 9.80 117.02 1.12 9.59 -2.1%
all prices in U$, using NYSE ticker prices Portfolio avg 11.00%
The overall basket average gained well last week, with just our copper/gold/other outlier
Freeport (FCX) registering a loss
The Low Cost Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
and all others putting in a winning
comparative to GDX control
week. The best numbers came 35%
from the smallest market cap 30%
stocks as they rebounded fastest
25%
(BTG up 13.5%, AG up 10.1%)
20%
but a serious shout-out also
15%
required for Goldcorp (GG up
10%
9.6%) which made a very big
5%
move compared to its market cap.
0%
On the other hand Newmont
(NEM) underachieved in the rally,
up just 29c.
11
ts13ceD ht21 ht62 ht9 dr32 ht9 dr32 ht6rpa ht02 ht4yam ht81 ts1nuj ht51
basket
gdx control
source: Yahoo! Finance, IKN calcs

This section is more about the gauging of performance of the bigger players to the smaller
players, so although it’s good to feature individual commentary on component stocks (e.g.
we’ve done quite a bit of B2Gold here recently) it’s not the main purpose. What I gather from
this week is both useful and positive: that the larger cap miners have (mostly) sprung fast and
(mostly) on much improved volumes, which is as clear a sign of new money entering the sector
as you’d care to imagine. This bodes well for the week ahead, though the touchstone is still the
price of gold and will still need close monitoring.
Low Cost Basket: Percentage difference between
basket and GDX control, 2014
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
12
ts13ceD ht5naj ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2ram ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpa ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1nuj ht8 ht51
source: ikn calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq data
Regional politics
Colombia has decided: It’s Santos
We now know that current President Juan Manuel Santos has won today’s second round run-off
election by a margin of (rounded up) 51% to 45%, with 4% spoiling ballots of the 48% of
electors who voted (which means a little over 2.5m more Colombians than in round one voted
and that’s what made all the difference it seems). The Alvaro Uribe backed candidate Zuluaga’s
loss means Colombia has decided against taking a shift back to the right and is going to stick
with Santos’s overall centre-right position (roughly speaking, Santos has been socially central,
economically right wing). The main foreign policy difference on today’s result is that the peace
talks between the FARC (5) and the government will continue in La Habana Cuba and there will
be no immediate return to full scale fighting between the two sides, at least as long as the
process is moved forward in good faith. The result moves against the round one result but isn’t
a big shock, as the higher turnout and the better campaigning by the Santos camp in the time
between the rounds made the difference, but it was still much much closer than the near-lock
situation we had at the start of 2014. The result is a setback for the hard right ex-President
Uribe, as his unhappiness with Santos as his term wore on turned into outright rebellion and his
championing of the traditional right wing stance of Zuluaga, but in the end it wasn’t enough
even though the Uribe factor kept Zuluaga afloat after several scandals hit the team.
As for the mining side of things, the Santos second term will have to step up and push the
agenda more strongly as Santos 1 has been a great disappointment. The failure to pass legal
reforms and the appeasement to environmentalists have stopped all momentum and that needs
to be turned around before investments here make real sense on a countrywide scale. On the
bright side, this Santos win almost certainly means a more peaceful country politically so the
chances of Colombia being pulled back into a hotter conflict that puts off FDI is lowered.
Argentina: Keeping an eye on the 2015 Presidentials map
Colombia is today’s big election and its result is bound to have a political effect on the region,
but when it comes to our focus subject of junior mining companies and potential trades, it’s not
going to have much direct influence in the near term (and in the longer-term, I fear for the
country stability factor.
On the other hand, the Argentina 2015 Presidential election has a lot in play both regionally and

for potential trade opportunities, so it’s one we need to watch carefully. In this election to
decide who succeeds Cristina, one thing is direct statements on mining policy but another, more
important one is the macro-economic model each candidate backs. That’s because FDI will be
encouraged or repelled in turn more about the proposals of each candidate on issues such as
inflation, trade barriers, monetary stability etc. With that in mind, this weekend local bizmedia
InfoBAE ran a good graphic (6) that not only shows the current state of play in opinion polls
and voter intention, but does an good job in broaching a difficult subject for non-Argentine
political watchers by grouping the candidates and showing how their paths can be enhanced or
stopped by the round of internal party primary elections (known as PASO) that will decide the
Presidential candidates for the October 15th 2015 big day. Here’s the chart:
It’s not cut’n’dry simple because candidate Sergio Massa may eventually decide to run within
the FPV (blue) zone or even hook up to form a Pres/Veep ticket with one of those, or those
inside FPV may defect and run solo, but as things stand today that above graphic is a pretty
decent snapshot of the way the race is beginning to firm up. Some notes
• FpV (Frente para la Victoria) is where the main action is at the moment. This is the
Kirchner brand of the umbrella PJ (Peronist) party and they need to choose a successor
13

to Cristina. Scioli is up front with Randazzo now his main internal challenger. With some
variations, both of those would represent a continuation of current policies and that
would mean a leftist brand of Peronism (as for a definition of Peronism, there simply
isn’t enough room in the whole Weekly let alone the ‘Regional Politics’ section; it has
always been and will always be a strange mish-mash of we on the outside consider
leftist and rightist policies). At around 27% of total voter intention, FpV’s choice of
candidate will be a key moment in this campaign. So will the political maneuverings
that go on once that official FpV candidate is chosen, because more than anything it’s
the Pres/Veep ticket that will send big signals to the outside investment world about
Argentina.
• Frente Renovador is a vehicle that’s been created around Sergio Massa in order to get
him to the Presidential vote day whatever happens. It’s a kind of semi-dissident
position to the current government of CFK and proposes some more orthodox economic
policies that would go down well with foreign investors, but if successful Massa
wouldn’t be a massive move away from the current government style.
• Union PRO and its candidate Mauricio Macri is the only party with policy ideas that
would be recognizable in “standard type” countries, and its proposals are right out of
the centre-right neoliberal playbook. This means a Macri win in 2015 would be very
positive in the eyes of the world, but it’s going to be a real uphill struggle for him and
his party to break the country away from the grip of Peronism.
• Frente UNEN (pink) is a slightly strange catch-all left/centre/centre-right coalition made
up of several Argentine political players that’s been put together in order to have a
chance of putting forward a candidate with percentage voting power come the day.
• De La Sota is the current “Dissident Peronist” frontrunner, which can be translated as
the old school Peronism that doesn’t like the Kirchnerist style of Peronism of FPV.
As for mining, right now the only party that says negative things about our preferred sector is
Frente UNEN (and then only half the time, because it’s a real catch-all group with lots of
individual positions). The candidate that would see Argentina-exposed stocks rally if they won
come 2015 are Macri and Massa (in that order), but neither Scioli nor Randazzo would be bad
for the sector either. De La Sota doesn’t really have much chance either way.
Peru: Political party financing, illegal mining, drugs etc
Two Fridays ago a story appeared in one of the only truly independent news media in Peru
(Hildebrandt en Sus 13) about how bosses of illegal mining operations in Peru added about
U$50,000 to the campaign funds of current President Ollanta Humala during his election
campaign in 2009. It was a nice piece of journalism and had a modicum of scoop gravitas about
it but it’s hardly the type of thing that would normally make waves in the country. However the
other political parties and national mainstream press (who together are already jockeying for
position for the next government and determined to keep the country’s President promoting
right wing policies) jumped on the story and have made it loud enough that even a few of you
have sent me links this week to English language reports on the hoo-hah.
So be it. I didn’t mention the story in last weekend’s edition because I mentally edited it out,
and that’s because i didn’t think it particularly new, newsworthy or influential. The opposition
and media grab and hype of the story now makes that otherwise so here are a few words.
Take for example this reaction (7) from an expert analysts of Andean narcotrafficking when
asked by Puno media for a thought or two. He framed his answer to the question, which was
specifically about the Puno region of Peru, but the answer is just as valid for many other
regions and provinces of Peru. The issue is topical because we’re now in the campaign season
for the round of regional elections for Peru in October 2014, which will decide the fate of many
regional governor, provincial governor and city/town mayor jobs.
14

“During the current electoral process, around 80% of the financial resources used by
the candidates in the Puno region come from illicit activities such as illegal mining,
narcotrafficking and contraband according the the narccotrafficking analyst Jaime
Antezana Rivera, who said that there are mafia groups who finance candidates in
order to defend the status quo.”
In Peru, these things only get a mention when it suits some-or-other political agenda and in this
case, it’s being used to stick one in the current President. However it will all blow over because
it always does, and that’s because the corruption goes deep into every political group and party
in this country. To choose just two datapoints of many, illegal gold mining accounting for
around 20% of all gold exports from Peru last year (it suddenly and mysteriously becomes legal
when it’s time to ship it out of the country) and with Peru now the number one cocaine
producer and exporter in the world. You think the country’’s authorities are blind to the balck
cash slushing around? You think this can go on behind the backs of the politicos without some
of the vast profits produced going to keep a lid on things politically? Just because it doesn’t
normally make the news, it doesn’t mean it’s not going on.
Uruguay: Aratiri stuck
Back in early 2014 Uruguay pushed through laws and announced agreement on contract details
with Brazil’s Zamin Ferrous over the big Aratirí iron ore project in the country and here we
watched carefully because its advancement looked positive as pathfinder for more formal
mining projects in the country (though no investments made in Uruguay yet, as junior options
are very limited).
Cut to today and the project hasn’t moved forward. As this report (8) notes, the government is
blaming the company for the delay as it has not as yet presented all of its environmental impact
plan, including the mine closure plan in particular. This may be a practical business decision
from a Zamin that doesn’t want to commit new capital to a project under current market
conditions, but it’s still a negative signal coming out of Uruguay for its mining industry. As we’re
now entering election season and the vote to replace current President Mujica is coming up at
the end of this year, I’d now expect the country’s “nascent mining industry” (an old and worn
cliché these days) to be put on ice until 2015 minimum.
Coeur CEO’s opinion on Peru as a mining destination
Last week Michael Krebs, CEO of Coeur (CDE) was in Peru and local business sheet Semana
Economica did a decent Q&A with him, published on Friday (9). Here’s the most relevant
excerpt from the piece (translated):
Semana Economica: During your expansion period, did you consider Peru
as a possible location for expansion?
Michael Krebs: Yes we did and we continue to consider it (as an option).
Peru has always been one of the main silver producing countries in the world.
We have presence in Mexico, the USA and Australia and Peru has always been
a large gap in our portfolio. It’s a major mining country with a long tradition
of mining, good human resources, a positive legal framework and good
infrastructure in many places. But quite simply, until now we haven’t found
the opportunity that fits with all our criteria in terms of costs and returns. At
this point in time, moving into a new country isn’t our main priority but at
some point it will be. Because of this i like to come here (to Peru) a couple of
times a year and keep in touch with the market.
Semana Economica: What would be your ideal mining project in Peru?
Michael Krebs: A low cost mine that’s already in production, with a
polymetallic deposit (silver, gold, lead, zinc) that would generate returns
greater than our capital cost (around 10%).
The only part of that Q&A that doesn’t ring true is the economic reasons for not moving on
15

Peru, as this is the same comapny that tried to buy out USA Silver (USA.v at the time in a
hostile bid, hardly a low cost mining operation.
Market Watching
Next week
Conclusion
IKN266 is done, we end with bullet points:
• Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) (RIOM) is still very much the centre of things here. Today0s
adjustment of the price target to $3.33 also implies that there’s no dilution in this SUE
deal.
• I’m still adding to my Minera IRL (IRL.to) (MIRL.L) position in readiness of better things
from the company.
• If you’re looking for an exploreco gold play and don’t like that so much, GoldQuest
(GQC.v) looks good this combination of price and imminent drill numbers.
• Peru’s still a great place to go mining, whatever anyone else may say. Politics sucks
though. Meanwhile, Argentina may be the next place to find the beaten down issues
that can bounce hard, so their 2015 election race will need to be watched closely.
The top long-term pick is Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to). I thank you in advance for any feedback.
Flash updates will be sent promptly if required by events
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Otto
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/true-gold-finds-extension-nami-103000365.html
(2) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/rio-alto-announces-resignation-director-213313556.html
(3) http://www.goldquestcorp.com/index.php/news/2014-news/264-goldquest-commences-10-000m-exploration-drill-
program-surrounding-the-romero-project-dominican-republic
(4) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/focus-appoints-timothy-oliver-director-123000681.html
(5) http://thisisadamsblog.com/post/87313726169/how-to-end-a-peace-process-without-actually-saying
(6) http://www.infobae.com/2014/06/10/1571722-massa-sigue-primero-mientras-se-polariza-la-interna-kirchnerista-
scioli-y-randazzo
(7) http://www.pachamamaradio.org/11-06-2014/el-80-de-candidatos-financian-campanas-con-dinero-de-la-droga-
mineria-y-narcotrafico.html
16

(8) http://www.aminera.com/index.php/mineria-internacional/item/4827-proyecto-aratir%C3%AD-no-puede-concretarse-
por-falta-de-informaci%C3%B3n.html
(9) http://semanaeconomica.com/article/extractivos/138561-coeur-mining-el-peru-siempre-ha-sido-un-vacio-en-nuestro-
portafolio/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2012
Closed in 2012 closed close PPS
Soltoro SOL.v jan'12 C$0.87 07-nov-11 C$0.94 8.0% cash moved to BCM.v
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to feb'12 C$0.84 13-oct-10 C$0.98 16.7% trade closed on ELG.v offer
Minefinders MFN feb'12 U$11.68 17-nov-11 U$14.80 26.7% target made, trade closed
Iron Creek IRN.v mar'12 C$0.58 26-sep-10 C$0.31 -46.6% time up on small bad trade
U.S. Silver USA.to apr'12 C$2.18 15-mar-12 C$1.86 -14.7% ST trade no good, cut loss
Augusta Res. AZC.to may'12 C$3.10 29-jan-12 C$2.07 -33.2% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Bellhaven BHV.v may'12 C$0.50 22-sep-10 C$0.28 -44.0% new mgmt not impressive
Zincore Metals ZNC.to may'12 C$0.325 29-jul-11 C$0.17 -47.7% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Soltoro SOL.v may'12 C$0.70 18-mar-11 C$0.41 -41.4% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
U.S. Silver USA.to aug'12 C$1.78 27-jul-12 C$1.36 -23.6% fail ST trade close pre split
Estrella Gold EST.v aug'12 C$0.91 27-mar-11 C$0.14 -84.6% Closed on port realignment
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'12 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.32 397.2% sell call $6.17/ Mar25
Strait Minerals SRD.v oct'12 C$0.125 09-dec-11 C$0.12 -4.0% closing coverage til FY13
Sunward Res SWD.to oct'12 C$1.47 13-mar-11 C$1.21 -17.7% sold, took loss
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'12 U$21.47 09-sep-12 U$17.40 19.0% Short trade closed
Yellowhead Min. YMI.to nov'12 C$1.00 01-apr-12 C$0.63 -37.0% sold, took loss
Primero Mining PPP nov'12 U$7.26 07-oct-12 U$6.73 7.3% Short trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v nov'12 C$3.38 07-nov-11 C$3.72 10.1% Took small profit
Vena Resources VEM.to dec'12 C$0.70 31-may-09 C$0.18 -74.3% Failed trade (caps F)
Galway Res GWY.v dec'12 C$2.19 24-nov-12 C$2.30 5.0% closed good ST arb trade
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2011
Closed in 2011 closed close PPS
Sunward Res SWD.v jan'11 C$1.05 21-nov-10 C$1.63 55.2% target made, trade closed
Serengeti Res SIR.v mar'11 C$0.245 05-dec-10 C$0.285 16.3% sold pre-tgt, ST trade fail
Fronteer Gold FRG apr'11 U$2.37 03-may-09 U$15.24 543.0% buyout, trade closed
Minefinders MFN apr'11 U$9.09 07-nov-10 U$16.89 85.8% target made, trade closed
Metalline Min. MMG may'11 U$1.04 26-jan-11 U$0.89 -14.4% exit, resource disappointed
Peregrine Met PGM.to jul'11 C$0.87 06-mar-11 C$2.60 198.9% buyout offer, closed
Dynasty Metals DMM.to jul'11 C$4.20 03-may-09 C$2.85 -32.1% Sold. Fail. Move on.
Aura Silver AUU.v aug'11 C$0.22 13-oct-10 C$0.16 -36.4% Bad pick. Take loss
U.S. Silver USA.v aug'11 C$0.52 26-jan-11 C$0.71 36.5% closed to make room
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'11 C$2.80 12-may-11 C$4.27 52.5% target made, trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v sep'11 C$3.80 27-may-11 C$4.17 9.7% macro sell call victim
Minefinders MFN sep'11 U$14.70 10-aug-11 U$15.15 3.1% macro sell call victim
Great Panther GPR.to sep'11 C$3.03 22-aug-11 C$2.64 -12.9% macro sell call victim
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'11 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.36 400.9% sold 20%, macro sell call
Focus Ventures FCV.v nov'11 C$0.40 20-apr-10 C$0.20 -50.0% cut losses, bad trade
Regulus Res. REG.v dec'11 C$1.17 14-aug-11 C$0.52 -55.6% cut on news of poor 43-101
2009 and 2010 closed positions in appendices below
17

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2010
Closed in 2010 closed close PPS
B2Gold Corp BTO.to Jan'10 C$0.88 08-nov-09 C$1.49 68.2% target made, trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v Jan'10 C$0.18 23-aug-09 C$0.40 122.2% target made, trade closed
MAG Silver MVG mar'10 U$5.60 23-nov-09 U$7.28 30.0% closed in pdac week
Riverside Res RRI.v mar'10 C$0.435 20-sep-09 C$0.60 37.9% closed in pdac week
Amarillo Gold AGC.v mar'10 C$0.81 31-may-09 C$0.70 -13.6% closed in pdac week
B2Gold Corp BTO.to apr'10 C$1.24 18-feb-10 C$1.50 21.0% target made, trade closed
Lumina Copper LCC.v apr'10 C$0.84 14-jun-09 C$1.55 51.2% total position now sold
Troy Resources TRY.to may'10 C$1.10 03-may-09 C$2.25 104.5% sold on negative results
AuEx Ventures XAU.to may'10 C$2.51 24-may-09 C$3.38 34.7% trade closed
Nevada Copper NCU.to jun'10 C$3.27 14-mar-10 C$2.03 -37.9% need to lower Cu exposure
Carpathian Gold CPN.to jun'10 C$0.39 14-mar-10 C$0.35 -10.3% too exposed to cap raising
Amerix PM Corp APM.v jun'10 C$0.065 08-nov-09 C$0.05 -23.1% victim of macro bear
Antares Minerals ANM.v jun'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$2.10 47.9% sold half
Vena Resources VEM.to jun'10 C$0.37 31-may-09 C$0.23 -37.8% sold half
Minera Andes MAI.to sep'10 C$0.75 28-jul-10 C$0.95 26.7% ST trade closed
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to sep'10 C$0.52 01-aug-10 C$0.75 44.2% target made, trade closed
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'10 C$1.45 25-may-10 C$2.01 34.5% target made, trade closed
Blue Sky Uran BSK.v oct'10 C$0.41 19-may-10 C$0.22 -46.3% v small v bad trade closed
Dia Bras Expl DIB.v oct'10 C$0.14 30-aug-09 C$0.35 150.0% target made, trade closed
S. Amer. Silver SAC.to nov'10 C$1.38 24-oct-10 C$1.60 -15.9% loss on short, small fail
Ventana Gold VEN.to nov'10 C$7.92 27-jun-10 C$13.51 70.6% trade closed on buyout
Lumina Copper LCC.v nov'10 C$1.42 11-aug-10 C$3.65 157.0% trade closed
Antares Minerals ANM.v dec'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$8.40 491.5% trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.v dec'10 C$0.69 23-mar-10 C$2.16 213.0% trade closed
Coro Mining COP.to dec'10 C$0.585 03-oct-10 C$1.24 112.0% target made, trade closed
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2009
Closed positions closed closing PPS
Cardero Res CDY/CDU.to May'09 U$1.20 03-May-09 U$0.87 -27.5% sold on negative news
Eastmain Res. ER.to May'09 C$1.04 06-May-09 C$1.315 26.4% trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v May'09 C$0.165 03-May-09 C$0.235 42.4% trade closed
Latin Amer Min. LAT.v May'09 C$0.12 03-May-09 C$0.158 29.2% trade closed
Aquiline Res. AQI.to July'09 C$2.03 16-Jun-09 C$1.68 -17.2% took loss, bad timing
Chariot Resources CHD.to Aug'09 C$0.20 12-Jul-09 C$0.415 107.5% trade closed
Castle Gold CSG.v Sep'09 C$0.64 02-Aug-09 C$0.60 -6.3% ST trade didn't work out
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to Sep'09 C$2.30 12-May-09 C$4.50 95.7% profit taken
Los Andes Copper LA.v Sep'09 C$0.09 21-Jun-09 C$0.09 0% trade closed
Pediment Gold PEZ.to Oct'09 C$0.80 09-Aug-09 C$1.00 25.0% trade closed
Minera Andes MAI.to Oct'09 C$0.68 03-May-09 C$0.71 4.4% too much bad news
Dynasty Metals DMM.to Nov'09 C$4.18 03-May-09 C$6.01 43.8% half sold
Rusoro Mining RML.v Nov'09 C$0.55 03-May-09 C$0.57 3.6% underperformed
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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