IKN #260Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 260, May 4th 2014
Contents
This Week: Adding to Timmins, Hoop Dreams, GLD doesn’t lead the market any longer it lags
the market.
Fundamental Analysis: NOBS update on Timmins Gold (TMM.to) (TGD) 1q14 financials
Stocks to Follow: Overview, Timmins Gold (TGD) (TMM.to), Lara Exploration (LRA.v),
Dalradian Resources (DNA.to), Focus Ventures (FCV.v), Gold Resource Corp (GORO), Rio Alto
(RIO.to) (RIOM), Minera IRL (IRL.to) (MIRL.L), Eco Oro (EOM.to), True Gold (TGM.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Reservoir Minerals (RMC.v), NovaCopper (NCQ.to), Augusta
Resource Corp (AZC.to) (AZC), Nevada Copper (NCU.to) and NGEx Resources (NGQ.to).
Low Cost Producer Basket: Overview, Newmont (NEM).
Regional Politics: Panama elects its new President today, Chile: Bachelet is setting the scene
for mining tax rises, Mexico: Baja California Sur environmental saga part 145.
Market Watching: Sulliden Gold (SUE.to): More delays, Allied Nevada (ANV) redux, Gold
Resource Corp (GORO) evolves and progresses... and hits a 52 week low.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Adding to Timmins
As seen below, I’m looking to add to my position in Timmins Gold (TGD) (TMM.to) next week
on the back of a 1q14 financial report that were solid and had plenty to like once they were
picked apart. Headsup done, more down there.
Hoop Dreams
I’m not very good at this sort of thing, so I’m just going to jump straight in at the deep end and
say be prepared, I’m going to ask you for money (but the good news, it’s not for me). To cut a
long story short, I’ve made contact with and checked out a group here in Arequipa that offers
English classes to a group of children in one of the poorest areas of the city. The group’s name
is HOOP (which stands for Helping Overcome Obstacles Peru), they have the requisite Twitter
(1) and Facebook (2) pages so you can see what they’re doing, it’s run by a Canadian who lives
here in Arequipa named Brad Brasseur (3) and its basic structure is to take volunteers from all
over the world who come, live here for a while and help. However, HOOP isn’t some informal or
sketchy structure either. It’s a registered NGO in Peru and it’s also a registered charity, which
means donations to the project are tax deductible.
I’ve already witnessed first-hand the outstanding work they’re doing for the children of families
in the zone and next week, you get to see what I’ve been seeing via a separate photo-report of
HOOP’s activities. Thus ends the softening up short note, full pitch next week.
GLD doesn’t lead the market any longer, it lags the market
When it comes to gold and its price movements. one of the main lines of argument put forward
1

by Iwnattos over at his blog, My Own Market Narrative, is that what happens in the
industrialized West (or North, or as he puts it “the Whiteys”) is of little importance these days.
That line of thinking fits in with the way the price of GLD (here on this chart multiplied by 6.4,
the reason for that slightly odd multiple is in IKN258) moved on Friday compared to the bullion
holdings registered by GLD, which dropped again that day by 2.39 tonnes to stand at 782.85mt,
the worst level for over four years.
The chart above shows a reasonably clear relationship between gold bullion holdings of GLD
and the price of GLD. However, its days of leading indications through the big upmoves of years
gone, then the downmove in bullion holdings as paper was turned into metal and dumped on
the market, seem to be over. Those moves fuelled gold’s rise and fall in fairly classic bubble
style (and yes, it’s easy to call bubble in hindsight isn’t it?) and the metal’s price didn’t find
relative stability until the hot money had left GLD entirely. Since then (basically 2014) we’ve
seen fluctuations in the holdings at GLD that include a top of around 820 tonnes mid March and
the Friday news of a new low. However and on reflection, as after all I’ve been watching this
relationship for signs of gold to come myself, what we see above doesn’t smack so much of
bullion the leading indicator. If anything it’s been a lagging indicator, which means we can’t
read very much at all into Friday’s action on its own. This is where the Iwnattos argument
enters the fray, because he’s been asserting more longer than most other people (certainly
before it was fashionable to point to Hong Kong gold import figures) that what happens in the
industrialized West isn’t what gold’s about any longer. From the way in which GLD now seems
to follow the changes in gold price rather than lead them, he has more evidence to go on.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
This week we update on Timmins Gold Corp (TMM.to) (TGD):
NOBS update report dated April 13th 2014
Timmins Gold Corp. (TMM.to) (TGD)
2

Company Overview
Timmins Gold Corp. (Canada: TMM.to, USA: TGD, Frankfurt T66.f) is a producing junior gold
mining company operating in Mexico. Its main asset is the San Francisco open pit heap leach
mine in the Northern State of Sonora, Mexico. Current share structure is as follows:
Shares out: 163.379m
Options: 11.375m
Warrants: none
Fully diluted shares: 174.754m
Current share price: U$1.41
Market Cap: U$230.36m
Approx cash per S/O: U$0.27
All prices are in United States dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.90=CAD$1
NB: As before (and because your author’s position is via a NYSE trade) we use the US listing of
TGD as our default preference and all analysis is done in U.S. Dollars.
Today’s update
We covered Timmins Gold (TGD) in some detail just three editions ago, so today’s update will
lean on that coverage and direct you there for background on the company and its San
Francisco mining operation. We’re here today because TGD reported its 1q14 numbers on
Thursday evening (4) so the job is to check our model against the reality and come to a few
conclusions. So, things should be fairly brief this time as we’re focussed specifically on its
corporate and financial results
Financial results overview
The main difference between our forecast and the reality of 1q14 was costs of production and
the tax burden taken by TGD. The tax is ok news, because from the looks of things TGD is
front-loading its obligations and things will be lighter in the quarters to come. However, costs
were heavier and on closer examination there it looks like they’ll stay higher than I expected
originally.
Therefore the ballpark conclusion to the company is that we’ll see slightly lower operating profits
than expected but slightly higher net profits than modelled in the three quarters to come.
Meanwhile, over at the balance sheet TGD seems to be taking a prudent and longer-term
attitude, paying down obligations rather than simply collecting cash. I like this as it smacks of a
company looking years (rather than weeks or months) into the future, but goes against some
speculation noted last week that TGD may be on the prowl for an acquisition. That I doubt, I
also doubt highly it would entertain any sort of friendly takeover bid at this time. The only
potential for M&A I see is a like-for-like fusion with a peer which would increase the eventual
company’s corporate weight and bring new followers. Possible, though until prices rise unlikely
Anyway, here are some details
Timmins Gold (TMM.to): Gold sales per quarter
Production
40000
We already knew the production total
for 1q14 in April and that chart is 35000
repeated here. Please note that we’re 30000
not expecting TGD to follow up on Q1 25000
with similar levels of production the 20000
rest of the year. It’s possible of course
15000
(e.g. it would only need the company
10000
to mine some higher than expected
5000
grade and those figures would pop
nicely) but we’ll leave the potential 0
upside to one side so that if it comes,
it’s a welcome surprise to the model.
3
21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 tse41q2 tse41q3 tse41q4
Oz Au
source: company filings

P+L things
Here’s the overview chart that combines revenues, COGS (TGD includes depreciation and
depletion in its COGS number) and the resulting
gross profit. For 1q14 revenues came in almost TMM.to/TGD: Quarterly Earnings overview
50
exactly on our estimate at $47.05m, which
45
means it was the best quarter of revenues ever 40
at the company. However, costs at $31.505m 35
were hotter than our forecast by over $2.5m so 30
we need to check where that mistake came 25
from. 20
15
10
This chart shows a breakdown of that COGS
5
number into its three reported components,
0
namely classic production costs at the mine (the
trucks, the mill, the supplies, the labour etc), a
small cost TGD has been taking for three
quarters as it stockpiles lower grading material
due to the lower price of gold, than the
deprec+deplet number. That one’s been
climbing due to capital costs and along with the
stockpiling expense has made a difference.
It’s somewhat masked behind the better
production and revenue numbers, but if we take
a peek at the same costs in terms of per gold
ounce sold (below right and note the cut down
Y-axis, done for easier viewing of the contrasts)
we can see than the extra costs above the
normal run of mill (no pun intended) has made a
greater difference. That in retrospect was the
weakness in my model and therefor I’ve
adjusted it for the quarters to come.
Next in the bottom right corner and in green is
how operating profits have been going. TGD
had a very decent $12.86m result in Q1 here
(G&A was $2.674, which is nice and tight and
smacks of an efficient corporate operation), but
we expect operating profits to drop as less gold
is produced in our model. However, the
company will remain clearly and usefully
profitable which is no mean feat these days.
To cover net profits, I’ve chosen the EPS chart
to illustrate (below). As TGD seems to have
paid forward a sizebable part of its State
burdens during the 4q13 (provision) and 1q14
periods, even though operating profits drop we
can expect bottom line profits to remain steady
and, as long as gold increases to our $1,350/oz
projected average for the second half of 2014,
see those profits increase slightly. TGD
returned a 2.9c EPS in Q1 and if our forward
guesstimates work out exactly, the bottom line
EPS is projected at 10.6X for 2014. Now that’s
not the cheapest out there (8X would be really
competitive), but it’s solid and profitable and will
benefit from an upwards rating for the sector, as well as any leverage from an improving gold
price.
4
11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 tse41q2 tse41q3 tse41q4
source: company filings, IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
revenues
COGS
Gross profit
$m Timmins Gold TGD/TMM.to: Breakdown pf COGS
35
depletion and depreciation
30 stockpiling cost
production costs
25
20
15
10
5
0
2q12 3q12 4q12 1q13 2q13 3q13 4q13 1q14
source: company filings
Timmins gold TGD/TMM.to: Production and total
U$/oz COGS per ounce sold, per quarter
900
prod costs/oz
875
850 Total COGS/oz
825
800
775
750
725
700
675
650
625
600
2q12 3q12 4q12 1q13 2q13 3q13 4q13 1q14
source: company filings, IKN calcs
TMM.to/TGD: operating profit
25
19.166 19.253
20
15.793 16.384
14.345
15 13.043 12.861
9.63610.44910.334 9.2619.245 9.5009.500
10 7.900
5 3.382
0
11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 tse41q2 tse41q3 tse41q4
U$m
source: company filings, IKN ests

TMM.to/TGD: Earning per share, per qtr
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
-0.02
-0.04
5
11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 tse41q2 tse41q3 tse41q4
U$
source: company filings, IKN ests for FY14
Balance sheet things
We see that the cash raised by TGD during 1q14 in its placement has boosted the baseline item
of our columns. The general tone here is one of quiet improvement of the company asset base
and not faraway from the global forecast of three weeks ago
TMM.to/TGD: Assets Breakdown per qtr
350
325
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 tse41q2 tse41q3 tse41q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
Trade/Rec
Inventory
fixed
other current
cash&ST
TMM.to/TGD: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
Where we do see a difference is in liabilities 120
and cash/working capital. First the liabilities and 110
100 the pleasant surprise here was to see how
90
much TGD had paid down its current 80
obligations. If I’m reading this event right, it 70
60
looks as though TGD is going to make an effort
50
to improve its balance sheet status by directing 40
cash flow towards the further pay down of debt 30
20
during the year, which makes sense on a
10
longer-term basis and makes for a more 0
attractive and efficient structure. It’s credit to the
company if it can pay down during the relatively
lean times for the gold price.
However, due to the extra costs that weren’t seen in
my original guesswork I’ve throttled back o the
forecasts for working cap in 2014. Q1 ended with
TGD having $67.23m in working capital (or
$24.27m “without inventory”, to hark back to a small
point made in IKN257), which is a little under $5m
less than anticipated (those costs and the higher tax
burden). That’s now expected to reach $95m by the
end of the year
11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 tse41q2 tse41q3 tse41q4
source: company filings, IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT debt
current debt
100 TMM.to/TGD: Working Capital per qtr
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 tse41q2 tse41q3 tse41q4
source company filings, IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim

Finally, share out came in right on schedule and are expected to remain steady for the indefinite
future. This is, after all, a profit making miner.
TMM.to/TGD: Shares Out
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
6
11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 tse41q2 tse41q3 tse41q4
source: company filings, IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim
Discussion and conclusion
I’ve decided to add to my position in TGD next week, but it won’t be at any price or a hurried
purchase. The company got a boost from its decent financials, but the results were tempered by
the impression given off by lower than expected bottom line results (extra costs, extra tax).
Along with that, the market has taken the company at its word when it says that its 2014
guidance hasn’t been changed by the blowout 1q14 production numbers and assumes, as I do,
that the rest of the year won’t be quite as good production wise (various wise and learned
reasons have been offered up by anal ysts on this one, we’ll just stick with the numbers at the
end).
What we have in TGD is a solid gold producing company that will return profits during all
quarters of 2014, but it’s long mine life and apparently mature corporate attitude will add value
as time goes on, all this notwithstanding the leverage it will enjoy if gold starts moving up again.
It’s still a clear second fiddle to Rio Alto (RIO.to) (RIOM) in my book but that doesn’t make it a
bad instrument; on the contrary I want to raise my percentage holding in this after seeing how
it’s used the cash produced in this apparent bumper quarter (and in the background, there’s a
chance it surprises to the upside again in the next quarter, which has been largely discounted
by the market and would provide a great boost on its own if it happens). I’m adding to my
position in TGD and expect $2 is an eminently reachable target as the year progresses.
End of Report

Stocks to Follow
Of our 13 open positions last week, four made gains (BCM.v, EOM.to, GORO short, COP.to),
one stayed unchanged (DNA.to) and the other eight showed weekly losses (RIO.to, FCV.v,
TGD, IRL.to, SCZ.v, LRA.v, SRL.v). The best moves came from Coro Mining (COP.to up 18.8%)
and the Gold Resource Corp short (GORO short up 8.3%), while the worst were booked by the
tiny position in Salazar (SRL.v down 18.6%) and then Lara Exploration (LRA.v down 8.4%). Just
about all the others were rather inconsequential moves either down or up and the main
takeaway from the week just gone is of a portfolio and a sector that remains in a holding
pattern,
We currently have 13 open positions on our ‘Stocks to Follow’ list, two less than our self-
imposed maximum. Four are green, nine are red, same as last week.
This Reco Current
Company Ticker week Avg Price date PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
Top Picks
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to str buy C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$2.18 -5.2% best LT value
Recommended long positions (in current order of preference)
Focus Ventures FCV.v str buy C$0.23 01-jul-12 C$0.31 34.8% tgt 50c, added, avged up
Dalradian Res DNA.to hold/buy C$0.65 27-oct-13 C$0.93 43.1% Going well, tgt up to $1.70
Timmins Gold TGD buy U$1.40 09-apr-14 U$1.41 0.7% new trade improving fundies
Minera IRL IRL.to hold C$0.30 22-jul-12 C$0.145 -51.7% top pick called 24c, demoted
True Gold TGM.v hold C$0.395 02-feb-14 C$0.37 -6.3% LT hold, takeover play
Santacruz Silver SCZ.v hold C$1.04 26-jan-14 C$0.85 -18.3% added, now full position
Bear Creek Min BCM.v add/hold C$1.63 23-mar-14 C$1.47 -9.8% Ag/pol risk trade, avged down
Lara Expl. LRA.v hold C$1.15 08-apr-12 C$0.76 -33.9% solid biz model, LT hold
Eco Oro Min. EOM.to hold C$0.48 22-sep-13 C$0.32 -33.3% waiting on paramo res.
Recommended short positions
Gold Res Corp GORO short U$5.07 26-jan-14 U$4.33 14.6% Re-short now full position
Smaller/Riskier
Coro Mining COP.to spec buy C$0.125 26-jan-14 C$0.095 -24.0% Cu spec play, can add
Salazar Res SRL.v hold C$0.28 02-mar-14 C$0.175 -37.5% small risky spec, vg rocks
Closed in 2014 closed close price
Fortuna Silver FVI.to jan'14 C$2.80 23-dec-13 C$3.19 13.9% small ST trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to jan'14 C$2.06 07-jun-13 C$2.30 11.7% trading position finally closed
Network Expl. NET.v feb'14 C$0.01 22-jul-12 C$0.005 -50.0% position closed, did nothing
Tahoe Resources TAHO feb'14 U$13.10 08-apr-13 U$21.72 -65.8% short closed due to reality
Darwin Res DAR.v mar'14 C$0.10 14-jul-12 C$0.045 -55.0% tiny risk play dropped
B2Gold BTO.to mar'14 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.35 9.1% closed to free up capital
Pretium Res PVG mar'14 U$5.38 22-nov-13 U$6.50 -20.8% short closed as port longer
2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 closed positions in appendices below
Now for some notes on a selection of the above stocks.
Timmins Gold (TMM.to) (TGD): Adding: Further to the above in Fundamentals today, this
one is getting boosted in the week ahead by some shares.
Lara Exploration (LRA.v): Lara sold off on the news (5) that Antofagasta (ANTO.L) was
returning its option on the big Sami property in South Peru after a limited drilling program,
though it has to be pointed out that trading continues to be very light in the stock and the
selling we saw last week shouldn’t be of any concern.
7

Equally of no concern is ANTO’s hand-back of the Sami option. Ever since I’ve been hanging
round LRA as a company, Sami is the property about which they’ve waxed most lyrical. It’s very
large and has a multitude of targets on site, most of which are gold related. However, ANTO
wanted to stick a few drills into a certain, very specific and small target on the Sami property in
order to test its potential for copper. As the
returns weren’t what it was looking for after
this (very limited) program ANTO has handed
back, but that shouldn’t put anyone off the
idea of Sami or detract from its potential. One
of these fine days a larger company will option
Sami and run a more systematic exploration
campaign there (it’ll need a larger sized
company and probably one looking for
precious metals only) and when they do, Sami
can start showing its true potential. I continue
to like LRA as a longer-term, covers-many-
bases exploration play because it will still only
need one of its big bunch of properties to
make a real discovery and the stock will be on
a strong and free ride upwards. In the meantime, it’s tight structure and emphasis on using
other people’s money means it’s not going to fall apart on a corporate level and downside from
this current low level is surely limited now.
Am I a buyer of LRA today? No, because it’s an illiquid stock and I’m looking to place my cash
in more dynamic securities (example, more Timmins the week ahead). But this is as firm a hold
as I have in the portfolio and the type of company that
junior speculators need to own.
Dalradian Resources (DNA.to): Tape painting? Yup of
course. The late Friday pop to 93 from the 90c available for
a day and a half, no matter what gold was doing, is
certainly artificial but makes no difference in the great
scheme of things; it’s going a lot higher anyway ☺.
Focus Ventures (FCV.v): It seems as though FCV has chosen the route of publishing a larger
amount of drill holes all at the same time, rather than announcing them to market on a
piecemeal basis. That’s because we’re now in May and no NR has arrived, but it’s also because
I’ve heard a whisper from a third party who says that’s how it’s going to be. Fair enough and
not a particular worry, as the stock now seems consolidated at or above the 30c level and
trades aren’t threatening anything lower. This stock is only going to be moved by news
fundamentals anyway and from what I’ve seen, up close and personal, there’s every reason to
feel confident about the weeks and months to come.
Gold Resource Corp (GORO): A longer piece on the GORO announcement of reserves is
found in ‘Market Watching’ below. Here we simply note that it hit a new 52 week and four year
low close on Friday evening, which is good news for us shorters. However, last week’s thoughts
are still very much in play so once GORO gives us its 1q14 financials a more proactive hold-or-
cover decision will be made.
Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) (RIOM): RIO had a quiet week, with very modest volumes on
display apart form Friday morning when it reacted with the field to the gold moves.
8

The next date with serious news here is Friday, when RIO reports its 1q14. We’ll go into the
details on Sunday but as a preview and
reminder here are the current IKN forecasts RIO.to: Quarterly Earnings Overview
$m
for the main operating numbers (feel free to revenues COGS amorts gross profit
90
laugh at them later when reality hits).
80
70
For 1q14 we’re pitching for sales of $67.9m, 60
costs to come in at $34.5m and a gross 50
profit of $25.4m. The two main things that 40
30
could skew the forecast out include more
20
pre-payment of gold to the loan facility than
10
expected (a minor thing), and higher
0
operating costs (the thing that I’ll be paying
1q13 2q13 3q13 4q13 1q14est
most attention to in these numbers).
source: company filings IKN ests for FY14
Whatever happens Friday RIO is still the
single most obvious junior producer bargain out there, so own some.
Minera IRL (IRL.to) (MIRL.L): I’m in Lima for a day next week (for your information, I’m
picking my mother up from the airport and she’s staying with us for a while) and while there,
have a near-confirmed meeting with Courtney Chamberlain pencilled in. Assuming the meeting
happens, expect an update on corporate activities next Sunday.
Eco Oro Minerals (EOM.to): We saw a pop and drop on Friday, but there’s some cheer to be
taken from it because 1) it was on decent volume and 2) there were a couple of bits of news to
back it up. The first was that the Environment
Ministry’s ruling on the border for the páramo
de Santurbán is already being challenged, and
apparently successfully, by some of the people
affected by the decision. In this first case at the
moment it’s a challenge from farmers to the
North of the páramo (rather than the western
areas that affect the Vetas mining community
and EOM at Angostura) but Minister Sarmiento
has now said (6) she’s open for negotiations on
this appeal, which is slightly bizarre due to the
extended nature of the decision process and
the backing down just a couple of weeks later.
It could be part of the weird and rarefied
atmosphere you get in South America just before Presidential elections, as we’re just three
weekends away from that event now.
The second event looks more likely to be a stock mover and the source of Friday’s buying. On
Friday morning the company announced (7) a change of President and CEO, with one Anna
Stylianides coming in as an interim to replace Joao Carrelo. The move to an interim boss, plus
the between the lines message held by this part of the NR...
“Ms. Stylianides replaces Joao Carrelo as the Company’s President & CEO, whose agreement
with the Company came to the end of its term and has not been renewed. Mr. Carrelo has also
resigned as a director of Eco Oro.”
...shouts “the guy’s been sacked” loudly and clearly, which indicates there was some sort of
sticking point inside the company. I’d admit it’s easy to read too much into these things, but
that scenario fits in with my own bemusement about why EOM hasn’t been more proactive
these last few weeks in making its investment case to the market (there’s enough to like here)
and the replacement at the top of the company. That and the share price action on Friday gives
me a little more hope (ugh, that verb) we could see EOM waking up soon. Holding for the
moment.
9

True Gold (TGM.v): It’s getting slightly frustrating to hold this (not nearly enough to get my
hands loose though) because there seems to be
somebody out there who’s keen on keeping a
lid on the share price (check out the staggered
drop Friday afternoon as a small piece of
evidence to the effect). Meanwhile the
financials were reported on Tuesday (8) which
were basically in line with what was expected. I
still think a Nevsun or Endeavour will snap this
company up one of these fine days.
The Copper Basket
After eighteen weeks of 2014 The Copper Basket is showing a 7.35% gain to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/14 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Augusta Res AZC.to 1.51 144.41 431.79 2.99 98.0%
2 NGEx Resources NGQ.to 1.43 168.71 376.22 2.23 55.9%
3 Reservoir Min. RMC.v 4.97 47.5 296.40 6.24 25.6%
4 Lumina Copper LCC.v 6.29 44.07 232.25 5.27 -16.2%
5 Nevada Copper NCU.to 1.35 80.5 175.49 2.18 61.5%
6 Copper Fox CUU.v 0.375 402.96 94.70 0.235 -37.3%
7 Western Copper WRN.to 0.76 93.68 91.81 0.98 28.9%
8 Hot Chili Ltd HCH.ax 0.425 333.11 83.28 0.25 -41.2%
9 NovaCopper NCQ.to 1.60 53.4 65.68 1.23 -23.1%
10 Panoro Minerals PML.v 0.35 204.71 61.41 0.30 -14.3%
11 Curis Resources CUV.to 0.57 74.79 56.09 0.75 31.6%
12 AQM Copper AQM.v 0.11 139.05 15.30 0.11 0.0%
13 Coro Mining COP.to 0.10 159.37 15.14 0.095 -20.0%
14 Cordoba Min. CDB.v 0.45 31.88 10.84 0.34 -24.4%
15 Oracle Mining OMN.to 0.27 49.03 9.32 0.19 -29.6%
NB: HCH.ax priced in AUD$, rest CAD$ Portfolio avg 7.35%
Last week, seven of our 15 basket components made gains (LCC.v, NGQ.to, CUU.v, NCU.to,
WRN.to, COP.to, OMN.to), one was
unchanged (PML.v) and seven dropped in The Copper basket 2014, weekly evolution
25%
market valuations (AZC.to, RMC,v, HCH.ax,
NCQ.to, CUV.to, AQM.v, CDB.v), so even on 20%
the headcount. The biggest moves to the
15%
upside were seen in Coro Mining (COP.to up
18.8%), NGEx Resources (NGQ.to up 14.9%) 10%
and Oracle Mining (OMN.to up 11.8%), while
5%
the biggest to the downside were Cordoba
Mining (CDB.v down 17.1%), Hot Chili 0%
(HCH.ax down 15.3%) and Augusta
Resource Corp (AZC.to down 11.3%).
10
ht5naj ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2ram ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpa ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam
source: IKN calcs

Copper prices ended the week flat, with earlier
weakness countered by the general rise in
commodities on Friday that came with the weakening
dollar. But as this dailies chart shows, a new trend
channel formed from the mid-March lows and it’s
been pretty steady in its direction too.
Inventories dropped again, though this time it was
the LME’s turn to eschew tonnage. Shanghai Futures
Exchange copper warehouse inventories were
unchanged at 105,156mt. Meanwhile, LME stocks
made the significant drop this week, down 12,500mt
(5.2%) to 229,800mt while over at the Comex
warehouses copper were down 703mt (4.1%) to
16.430mt. That puts total world inventory figures for
our bonded warehouses at 351,386mt and as it’s the
end of another month, here’s how that looks on our
monthly inventory tracking charts:
Copper inventories, per month 2012-2014
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
As the left-hand chart shows, we’ve seen a big drop in inventories this month and we now have
the lowest number, and by quite some distance, since September 2012 (427kt copper total). As
the right-hand chart shows, the drop is mostly due to the exodus of copper from Shanghai
warehouses. Don’t make the mistake of trying to over-analyse this one and point to this strange
thing or that wrinkle in the modern day copper market; what you have above is bullish, period.
Now for updates on a few of our featured basket stocks:
Reservoir Minerals (RMC.v): RMC dropped back to
where it was two weeks ago (aka the start of the
interesting buy zone), drifting down on no news and
light trading. It’s got my antenna twitching once
again, as it’s top of my list for copper shopping no
doubts.
NovaCopper (NCQ.to): After laying out the case for
the interesting NCQ in the somewhat extended section
last week, its weekly performance fitted in with the
current set up as seen by these eyes. NCQ dropped
slowly and steadily on light volumes (rhyming with
RMC above) and the feedback from certain people
who will remain nameless read the piece (and generally agreed with it) indicates that we are
indeed close to getting an announcement on the round of financing necessary to fund its work
11
21.naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 31.naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 41.naj bef ram rpa
Mt Cu Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
80
LME Shanghai Comex
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
source: Cochilco
21.naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 31.naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 41.naj bef ram rpa
LME Shanghai Comex
source: Cochilco

in 2014 at least. That’s when I think NCQ becomes a potential trade or investment for us, down
here at retail level.
Augusta Resource Corp (AZC.to) (AZC): The contents of Thursday evening’s NR (9) is the
main reason AZC had a soft week, as it told of at least delays (and maybe more sinister
problems in the wings (10)) for its Rosemont permitting schedule. However as the five day
chart indicates, the negative news had been
going round the marketplace for days as this
report in the AZ Star (11) dated Monday April
26th shows (which does a good job of showing
the pros and cons of Rosemont’s permitting to
date and what are remaining issues)
After posting the short comment linked above
on the blog, I received two highly detailed and
educational mails from reader B, a person
must remain anonymous but is vouched by
your author as being somebody with vast
experience who really but really knows the
things that need to be done in order to build a
mine in North America. Because of the depth
of detail, it’s impossible to share his correspondence with you (printing the mails verbatim
would make his ID obvious to experienced mining people, something he does not want) but he
did allow me to edit and reproduce some of the main points made, so here are a few of B’s
thoughts presented in bullet point form from his two mails, very slightly edited to protect IDs:
• I can empathize with ACZ’s 404 shortcomings as recently defined by the
ACOE. Both the ACOE and EPA have a tendency to “move the target” as the
permitting process evolves.
• Keep in mind that around 20 years ago ASARCO couldn’t permit Rosemont
and they were pumping sulfuric acid for an in situ leach project in Arizona ...
that time
• (admittedly, ASARCO’s community relations were dreadful). Having
experience in the Santa Rita Mountains,
• the ACOE/EPA are not what worries me; eventually that will be overcome
(when, who knows, because the Feds do not work on a defined timeline). It is
the bleeding-heart east/west coast “displaced” liberals with too much money
and too much time, many of whom are members of the Saving the Scenic
Santa Ritas group, the same group that harangued ASARCO ~20 years ago,
who will impede development of this copper deposit when it is permitted (US
law does not allow federal agencies to “deny” permit applications sensu
stricto, but will tend to delay things by requiring changes “to their liking” before
granting a permit).
• Arizona is not a mining state; it is a state with mining. Nevada is a mining
state as well as a state with mining
• In the case of AZC, in my opinion they have a very good plan with respect to
the proposed mine, handling/discharging water, and other matters.
• ...the Feds do not work on a timeline and tend to delay things given that they
cannot refuse a permit, but the company must agree to and comply with all
changes that they propose.
• The NFS (Forestry Service) people in that neighborhood are very
12

knowledgeable and forthcoming. The ACOE people are not all that bad, but
are overshadowed by the EPA. The state people for permitting are very
difficult to work with and are not generally keen on mine development.
• The county folk have been given a schooling by the courts. On jurisdiction, the
district is represented by Raúl Grijalva, who wants to make the whole state a
Wilderness area.
• ...keep in mind that Tucson is the liberal bastion of Arizona; they tote guns,
but not as many as those outside of Tucson...
• ...the Save the Scenic Santa Ritas group is poised to pounce on any permits
granted with unlimited funds
IKN back. Those should give you the flavour and, after having the privilege of reading B’s
longform mails, the one I really wanted to share and highlight is, “Arizona is not a mining state;
it is a state with mining. Nevada is a mining state as well as a state with mining” because it hit
the nail on the head. The bottom line is that Rosemont isn’t going to be an open and shut case,
even if it gets its permits in good order this year, and the downside to this project is still of the
fall-off-cliff-into-abyss variety no matter what AZC (or Hudbay (HBM) for that matter) tell you
otherwise. Getting the comments of a knowledgeable neutral such as B on this project is both
valuable and rare and though his line of “great project, crappy address” isn’t a new one, B is of
the opinion that the locals can stop this project in many ways that other commentators haven’t
seen. In fact one of his non-reprintable comments was about how the only people who seem to
fall for the Augusta line of reasoning hook, line and sinker are the brokerage analysts who
cover the stock and if you go higher up the financial foodchain the company’s proposals aren’t
swallowed so easily.
Nevada Copper (NCU.to) and NGEx Resources (NGQ.to): Both of these went up again,
NGQ strongly so and NCU adding 8c to its pop of the previous week. I’m still of the firm opinion
that people are betting (no other word) on these companies because they see a limited field of
options out there. They both have clear weaknesses (NGQ the Argentina exposure, NCU last
year’s mediocre feas study) and they’re definitely not for me.
The Low Cost Producer Basket
After 18 weeks, the Low Cost Producer Basket is showing a 12.15% gain to level stakes
company ticker price 1/1/14 Shares out Mkt Cap (Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Freeport FCX 37.74 1040 36.07 34.68 -8.1%
2 Goldcorp GG 21.67 812 20.52 25.27 16.6%
3 Barrick ABX 17.63 1000 17.40 17.40 -1.3%
4 Newmont NEM 23.03 497.87 12.31 24.72 7.3%
5 Silver Wheaton SLW 20.19 357.39 8.07 22.58 11.8%
6 Franco Nevada FNV 40.74 147.01 7.16 48.70 19.5%
7 Agnico Eagle AEM 26.38 173.43 5.60 32.31 22.5%
8 Pan American PAAS 11.70 151.41 2.00 13.18 12.6%
9 B2Gold BTG 2.02 651.4 1.85 2.84 40.6%
10 First Majestic AG 9.80 117.02 1.15 9.79 -0.1%
all prices in U$, using NYSE ticker prices Portfolio avg 12.15%
For a change a bit of a mixed bag, with three downers (ABX, NEM, BTG) and seven uppers
(FCX, GG, SLW, FNV, AEM, PAAS, AG) from our field of ten. The best move came from Agnico
Eagle (AEM up 11.3%) thanks to its excellent reported quarter, which timed nicely into the
Friday morning pop and made the stock flavour of the day. Newmont (NEM down 6.5%) was
the worst performer.
13

Our basket made up a little ground on
The Low Cost Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
our control GDX too (probably comparative to GDX control
because ABX and NEM are more 35%
highly weighted in that index ETF). 30%
Overall and with exceptions (e.g. 25%
anything involved with aborted M&A 20%
talks) it was better to be a senior than 15%
a junior last week which is probably a 10%
positive near-term signal for our 5%
normal focus of attention.
0%
Newmont (NEM): I haven’t gotten into the feel
for the way larger miners trade around M&A yet.
First there was my poor analysis of the GG
versus AEM/AUY thing over Osisko (I thought GG
would come again for OSK, which was plain
wrong) and now with the failed ABX/NEM talks I
get the scenario right but the paydirt call wrong.
Last week I wrote at this point...
“...the ABX/NEM failed merger talks aren’t the first time these two have tried and failed, it’s
hardly new news and what’s more, it’s a difficult fit. Once the scoop factor had died down it
should have been considered a wash, but the market decided to buy NEM and sell ABX. These
companies are virtually unchanged from 10 days ago, the ABX drop isn’t fundamentally justified
and the emotion will wear off; ABX is a trading buy here.2
...and indeed the talks were called official failures once a flurry of he-said-she-said NRs were
published by either side, but the right call wasn’t to see ABX up and NEM unchanged, it was to
see ABX (virtually) unchanged and NEM down. So right analysis, wrong trade and the problem
is that I really don’t understand why. Tier one miners, a whole different set of politics it seems
(mental note: stick to the numbers).
Regional politics
Panama elects its new President today
What you need to know as a junior mining investor(cid:2) Nothing will change.
For the rest, today’s election is basically a three-way between
• José Domingo Arias, the right wing candidate from the alliance between the current
Martinelli government party (Cambio Democrático (CD)) and the Molirena (Movimiento
Republicano Nacionalista) party, aka Molirena.
• Juan Carlos Varela, ex-Veep until he fell out with current President Martinelli and the
candidate from the centre-right alliance between the Partido Panameñista and the
Partido Popular.
• Juan Carlos Navarro, the centre-left candidate from the Partido Revolucionario
Democrático (PRD).
Polls have the three at-or-around the 30% point each, so it’s going to be a close scrap and
14
ts13ceD ht21 ht62 ht9 dr32 ht9 dr32 ht6rpa ht02 ht4yam
basket
gdx control
source: Yahoo! Finance, IKN calcs
Low Cost Basket: Percentage difference between
basket and GDX control, 2014
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
ts13ceD ht5naj ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2ram ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6rpa ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4yam
source: ikn calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq data

political watchers in the region will have a lot of fun dissecting the results. But on a foreign
policy and specifically mining level, there’s nothing much to choose between the governments
that any of the three will form. Which is why it hasn’t had much of a mention here in the weeks
running up to today’s election, of course.
Stop Press: According to exit polls, Varela is your winner.
Chile: Bachelet is setting the scene for mining tax rises
And it’s not even subtle any longer. A presentation given by Sergio Hernández, Executive VP of
Cochilco, last Wednesday at a mining conference in Santiago, didn’t say out loud that Chile’s
new government was going to raise taxes on mining companies but was as big a hint as you
can imagine. Entitled “The Specific Taxation on Mining Activity” (exact title El Impuesto
Específico a la Actividad Minera) went into details about what mining companies in the country
pay, what they don’t pay and how new taxes might be raised on the sector, especially as the
bill to annul the 2004 tax stability law for foreign capitals has now been sent for debate to its
parliament. As an example of what was said, the presentation material (available here (12)) on
page eight had a list of things concerning “The Search for Better Benefits for the Country from
Mining Production” and here’s the translated bullet list:
Non-renewable natural resources belong to the State
Options
• Raise price of mining concessions
• Royalties
• Specific Taxes
• Levies and controls on exporters
Then later in the presentation...
In Chile there already exists a mining royalty
A Specific Mining Tax would take into consideration the price cycle and the conditions of each
mining operation
Chile has largely based its social and economic development on the revenues from mining
Taxes from the sector are an important part of State fiscal revenues.
The writing is on the wall here, Chile’s going to add some sort of extra tax to the mining
industry and from the clues given, the recent Mexico model of levying from EBIT may be its
way forward.
Mexico: Baja California Sur environmental saga, part 145
Over at Baja California Sur, the latest round (13) of the fight between the regional government
(plus anti-mine enviro people) and the pro-mining national government (via the Semarnat
enviro bureau) over the test case Los Cardones property is taking shape. The first issue is that
the locals are accusing Semarnat of dragging its feet and not publishing a decision on Cardones
by its own April 30th deadline, implying along the way that they know Semarnat feels compelled
to issue a negative on the project but is being stopped by larger political reasons. The second is
a protest against the mine project which is due to Stara on May 7th and will consist of a demo
and situ-in at the regional parliament building. The plan is again to force government official to
issue a binding decision on Los Cardones.
Market Watching
Sulliden Gold (SUE.to): More delays
Unsurprisingly, the timeline for construction permits at Sulliden Gold’s (SUE.to) Shahuindo
project have been set back again. We’ve had a whole bunch of dates set for this already, with
for example this report (14) dated September 2013 telling us:
15

“Sulliden Gold (SUE:TSX) has cleared the final hurdle at its Shahuindo gold and silver
project in northern Peru by receiving an ‘okay’ for their Environmental Impact
Assessment. With this milestone complete, after an 18 month permitting process, the
company expects to begin construction within 30-60 days (once final project finance
package completed). The construction will take them into Q3/2014 when they expect
to begin production.”
Seriously, it said “final hurdle” there. The latest as far as I can make out is the current
corporate presentation that has SUE receiving the construction permit “during 1h14” (i.e. in the
next two months). However the latest from this end of the world (15) that apparently can’t be
found in any English language literature is that SUE “...is waiting on its final permits to start
construction of its Shahuindo gold project (Cajamarca) at the end of 2014 or the beginning of
2015”, quote unquote (translated).
The problem here is a combination of two factors. Firstly, there’s the Cajamarca regional
election in October and the way the national government doesn’t want to rock the boat and
potentially spoil the chances of the more pro-mining candidates running against their bugbear
governor, Gregorio Santos. The other is that try as they might at SUE, the company hasn’t
managed to buy the necessary remaining surface rights to the property and that’s because
there are enough locals that hate the
sight of the company and simply will
not sell.
This five year chart of SUE shows
that the company is still not re-
testing its 52 week lows, even while
other promised and failed juniors are
doing just that.
For me there are two things in SUE’s
favour at this time stopping it from
going lower. First the company cash
position, which stood at ~$50m as at
the end of its last quarter (Jan 31st
2014) and negligible liabilities held.
That cash covers 16c per share of its ~310m shares outstanding. Secondly, the potential that if
one of the non-Santos, pro-mining candidates wins the Cajamarca election later this year, the
national government will feel suitably emboldened and issue a compulsory purchase order on
the locals who refuse to sell the key missing surface rights to the property, therefore freeing up
development. We’ll see about that one but if that doesn’t happen SUE will just continue to go
nowhere.
Allied Nevada (ANV) redux
In last week’s piece “What Allied Nevada at Hycroft and Kinross at Tasiast have in common”,
the finger was pointed at a little “combo-IRR” trick that both companies are using in order to
justify a large capital outlay on expansion. On reflection I probably didn’t explain the point as
well as I should have, because three “huh?” type mails arrived early last week about it. So to
throw a bit more light on it here’s an exchange I had with one of the mailers, reader ‘JM’:
JM: You're saying the companies are calculating an IRR that doesn't include the costs
that have already been incurred? So it's sort of a "going forward from here" IRR? If so,
I can kinda understand the motive: they're saying "from this point forward Tasiast is
making a profit", and that's a nice thing to tell your investors. Is your concern that the
sunk costs should be included in IRR calcs because they haven't been written off?
Your author: Consider the ANV 2013 MD&A (attached). For what it’s worth, ANV is a
the easier model because it only has one operating mine. K is messier, but the
principle is the same. Go to page 61, which gives the quickview quarterly results and
16

you see ANV made 10c/share in 4q13. That's the type of operation being added as
free profit margin in order to justify its $1.3Bn expansion outlay. When ANV shows me
what kind of IRR will be produced by the expansion cash only, then we have honest
numbers on the table. Until then it's bullshit.
So hopefully that explains my position a little better. In other news, since then we’ve seen ANV
dive sharply against peers and market, as this five day chart illustrates nicely:
All that on top of the 6% drop the week before last between the spike on Wednesday’s feas
study news and the week’s end, as noted in IKN259 last Sunday. Therefore, as I chew myself
out on the bad calls when they occur I think there’s reasonable licence to say “Got this one
right” today.
Gold Resource Corp (GORO) evolves and progresses... and hits a 52 week low
The main news from GORO last week was that it had finally produced a reserves report (16) for
its Arista mine property, which was billed as “the evolution and progression of our company” by
its cheerleader-in-chief, the overpaid CEO Jason Reid. What it revealed to the market was how
thin its reserve position is (something we’d assumed for many quarters) and the result was to
see GORO selling off.
Your author gave the announcement the necessary short shrift on the blog (17), such as the
way GORO decided to use a 51.4X gold/silver ratio for its gold equivalent calculations (today’s
rate is 67X and we haven’t seen 51.4X for a year and a half) and announce it had 381,400 oz
AuEq, when a contemporary calculation makes that under 328k. By the way, I didn’t make a big
fuss about those the high price assumptions of U$1,550 gold and $30 silver because they come
from a standard SEC formula. However, it is an obvious problem for GORO in the pipeline and
that will become apparent as the higher priced years for gold and silver roll out of the said
17

formula.
The interesting bit was how that sell-off continued on Friday while gold and other mine equities
rebounded, something patently obvious from the GORO vs GLD chart here, which leaves GORO
at a new 52 week low close this weekend. This is, of course, something that I’m not
complaining about. As mentioned, there’s a bit of eye-opening going on around this stock (not
soon soon, as last week’s note at this point bears witness to my wondering on whether it was
going to drop) and not a moment too soon.
GORO: Construction and Development Costs per
Today, the GORO AuEq (which is still the
$m quarter
standing joke in itself, but let’s not go there
8
today) in-situ is valued at just over 7
U$700/oz and that’s still expensive by 6
anybody’s standards. 5
4
However, there is a decent corporate 3
reason behind this move. According to the 2
SEC rules, GORO couldn’t classify itself as a 1
producer without having P+P reserves, 0
which means it couldn’t capitalize its 1q11 2q11 3q11 4q11 1q12 2q12 3q12 4q12 1q13 2q13 3q13 4q13
source: GORO filings
construction and development costs. Up to
now it has had to expense them which
means the amount of cash you see in these bars has been coming out of the operating profits
column of the company.
What’s more, as the reserves report is dated December 31st 2013, we can expect GORO to start
capitalizing these costs as from this quarter about to be reported, 1q14. This doesn’t mean the
cash isn’t being spent, but it will allow the company to report a decently higher amount of
operating profit (say, $5m or $6m per qtr) from now on and it’s going to have a new and fancy
headline with which is can play its next round of sophistry.
But the key to this stock, as mentioned last week in a different aspect, is still going to be
watching the company’s treasury position. Expensed or capitalized, GORO is going to have to
spend money on development (and quickly) if it wants to maintain its reserves position. That
means drilling, surverying and other geological niceties that do not come cheap and no matter
if they are booked on the P+L or the balance, cold hard cash will be necessary. So when the
quarter arrives, keep your eyes on the prize and the working capital and/or treasury position,
don’t get fooled by an operating profit that hits $5m or $6m higher than previously forecast
round these parts.
18

Conclusion
IKN260 is done, we end with bullet points:
• I like the look of the Timmins Gold (TGD) (TMM.to) quarter so I’ll look to add a few,
hopefully averaging down the position slightly along the way.
• The gloss is well and truly off Gold Resource Corp (GORO), but the quarterly filings for
1q14 will still be akey factor in deciding whether I continue shorting this dog.
• Augusta Resource Corp (AZC.to) (AZC) looks more of a mess every time i look at it.
HudBay may be making a large mistake there.
• Meanwhile the copper space is looking better and better. If Reservoir (RMC.v) can
throw me a late bone and a cheap entry point, expect a Flash update to the effect
during the week. The other one, NovaCopper (NCQ.to), can wait until the details of its
2014 financing are known.
• Things to look forward to this week include Rio Alto’s (RIO.to) quarter, the potential for
the FCV drills to show up and the arrival of my mother for a decently long stay with us
here. That’ll be fun and the kids are really looking forward to seeing ‘awicha’ (a word
that can be explained another day).
The top long-term picks are Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) and Minera IRL (IRL.to). I thank
you in advance for any feedback. Flash updates will be sent promptly if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Otto
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://twitter.com/HOOPPERU
(2) https://www.facebook.com/HOOPPeru
(3) http://teamsocialwork.com/ngo-internet/
(4) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/timmins-gold-reports-earnings-operations-221433896.html
(5) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lara-exploration-ltd-antofagasta-relinquishes-210614579.html
(6) http://www.larepublica.co/minambiente-postergar%C3%A1-la-l%C3%ADnea-de-p%C3%A1ramo-para-
ajustarla_116551
(7) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/eco-oro-minerals-announces-executive-125200308.html
(8) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/true-gold-mining-reports-end-231814210.html
(9) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/augusta-provides-permitting-233700293.html
(10) http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2014/05/augusta-resource-corp-azc-azcto-azc.html
(11) http://azstarnet.com/news/blogs/desertblog/article_2ba70b62-ccd1-11e3-9dbf-
19

0019bb2963f4.html#.U2BK2zFyM0E.twitter
(12)
http://www.cochilco.cl/Archivos/destacados/20140430113310_20140428%20Imp%20Especifico%20Act%20Minera%20
v1.pdf
(13) http://www.bcsnoticias.mx/sin-fecha-definida-resolutivo-de-minera-los-cardones/
(14) http://ceo.ca/2013/09/11/sue-sulliden-clears-final-hurdle-at-shahuindo-and-recieves-environmental-okay/
(15) http://www.tecnologiaminera.com/tm/d/noticia.php?id=10276
(16) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-corporation-releases-report-la-130000951.html
(17) http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2014/04/gold-resource-corp-goro-gold-miner-with.html
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2012
Closed in 2012 closed close PPS
Soltoro SOL.v jan'12 C$0.87 07-nov-11 C$0.94 8.0% cash moved to BCM.v
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to feb'12 C$0.84 13-oct-10 C$0.98 16.7% trade closed on ELG.v offer
Minefinders MFN feb'12 U$11.68 17-nov-11 U$14.80 26.7% target made, trade closed
Iron Creek IRN.v mar'12 C$0.58 26-sep-10 C$0.31 -46.6% time up on small bad trade
U.S. Silver USA.to apr'12 C$2.18 15-mar-12 C$1.86 -14.7% ST trade no good, cut loss
Augusta Res. AZC.to may'12 C$3.10 29-jan-12 C$2.07 -33.2% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Bellhaven BHV.v may'12 C$0.50 22-sep-10 C$0.28 -44.0% new mgmt not impressive
Zincore Metals ZNC.to may'12 C$0.325 29-jul-11 C$0.17 -47.7% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Soltoro SOL.v may'12 C$0.70 18-mar-11 C$0.41 -41.4% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
U.S. Silver USA.to aug'12 C$1.78 27-jul-12 C$1.36 -23.6% fail ST trade close pre split
Estrella Gold EST.v aug'12 C$0.91 27-mar-11 C$0.14 -84.6% Closed on port realignment
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'12 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.32 397.2% sell call $6.17/ Mar25
Strait Minerals SRD.v oct'12 C$0.125 09-dec-11 C$0.12 -4.0% closing coverage til FY13
Sunward Res SWD.to oct'12 C$1.47 13-mar-11 C$1.21 -17.7% sold, took loss
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'12 U$21.47 09-sep-12 U$17.40 19.0% Short trade closed
Yellowhead Min. YMI.to nov'12 C$1.00 01-apr-12 C$0.63 -37.0% sold, took loss
Primero Mining PPP nov'12 U$7.26 07-oct-12 U$6.73 7.3% Short trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v nov'12 C$3.38 07-nov-11 C$3.72 10.1% Took small profit
Vena Resources VEM.to dec'12 C$0.70 31-may-09 C$0.18 -74.3% Failed trade (caps F)
Galway Res GWY.v dec'12 C$2.19 24-nov-12 C$2.30 5.0% closed good ST arb trade
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2011
Closed in 2011 closed close PPS
Sunward Res SWD.v jan'11 C$1.05 21-nov-10 C$1.63 55.2% target made, trade closed
Serengeti Res SIR.v mar'11 C$0.245 05-dec-10 C$0.285 16.3% sold pre-tgt, ST trade fail
Fronteer Gold FRG apr'11 U$2.37 03-may-09 U$15.24 543.0% buyout, trade closed
Minefinders MFN apr'11 U$9.09 07-nov-10 U$16.89 85.8% target made, trade closed
Metalline Min. MMG may'11 U$1.04 26-jan-11 U$0.89 -14.4% exit, resource disappointed
Peregrine Met PGM.to jul'11 C$0.87 06-mar-11 C$2.60 198.9% buyout offer, closed
Dynasty Metals DMM.to jul'11 C$4.20 03-may-09 C$2.85 -32.1% Sold. Fail. Move on.
Aura Silver AUU.v aug'11 C$0.22 13-oct-10 C$0.16 -36.4% Bad pick. Take loss
U.S. Silver USA.v aug'11 C$0.52 26-jan-11 C$0.71 36.5% closed to make room
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'11 C$2.80 12-may-11 C$4.27 52.5% target made, trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v sep'11 C$3.80 27-may-11 C$4.17 9.7% macro sell call victim
Minefinders MFN sep'11 U$14.70 10-aug-11 U$15.15 3.1% macro sell call victim
Great Panther GPR.to sep'11 C$3.03 22-aug-11 C$2.64 -12.9% macro sell call victim
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'11 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.36 400.9% sold 20%, macro sell call
Focus Ventures FCV.v nov'11 C$0.40 20-apr-10 C$0.20 -50.0% cut losses, bad trade
Regulus Res. REG.v dec'11 C$1.17 14-aug-11 C$0.52 -55.6% cut on news of poor 43-101
2009 and 2010 closed positions in appendices below
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2010
Closed in 2010 closed close PPS
B2Gold Corp BTO.to Jan'10 C$0.88 08-nov-09 C$1.49 68.2% target made, trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v Jan'10 C$0.18 23-aug-09 C$0.40 122.2% target made, trade closed
MAG Silver MVG mar'10 U$5.60 23-nov-09 U$7.28 30.0% closed in pdac week
Riverside Res RRI.v mar'10 C$0.435 20-sep-09 C$0.60 37.9% closed in pdac week
Amarillo Gold AGC.v mar'10 C$0.81 31-may-09 C$0.70 -13.6% closed in pdac week
B2Gold Corp BTO.to apr'10 C$1.24 18-feb-10 C$1.50 21.0% target made, trade closed
Lumina Copper LCC.v apr'10 C$0.84 14-jun-09 C$1.55 51.2% total position now sold
Troy Resources TRY.to may'10 C$1.10 03-may-09 C$2.25 104.5% sold on negative results
AuEx Ventures XAU.to may'10 C$2.51 24-may-09 C$3.38 34.7% trade closed
Nevada Copper NCU.to jun'10 C$3.27 14-mar-10 C$2.03 -37.9% need to lower Cu exposure
Carpathian Gold CPN.to jun'10 C$0.39 14-mar-10 C$0.35 -10.3% too exposed to cap raising
Amerix PM Corp APM.v jun'10 C$0.065 08-nov-09 C$0.05 -23.1% victim of macro bear
Antares Minerals ANM.v jun'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$2.10 47.9% sold half
Vena Resources VEM.to jun'10 C$0.37 31-may-09 C$0.23 -37.8% sold half
Minera Andes MAI.to sep'10 C$0.75 28-jul-10 C$0.95 26.7% ST trade closed
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to sep'10 C$0.52 01-aug-10 C$0.75 44.2% target made, trade closed
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'10 C$1.45 25-may-10 C$2.01 34.5% target made, trade closed
Blue Sky Uran BSK.v oct'10 C$0.41 19-may-10 C$0.22 -46.3% v small v bad trade closed
Dia Bras Expl DIB.v oct'10 C$0.14 30-aug-09 C$0.35 150.0% target made, trade closed
S. Amer. Silver SAC.to nov'10 C$1.38 24-oct-10 C$1.60 -15.9% loss on short, small fail
Ventana Gold VEN.to nov'10 C$7.92 27-jun-10 C$13.51 70.6% trade closed on buyout
Lumina Copper LCC.v nov'10 C$1.42 11-aug-10 C$3.65 157.0% trade closed
Antares Minerals ANM.v dec'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$8.40 491.5% trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.v dec'10 C$0.69 23-mar-10 C$2.16 213.0% trade closed
Coro Mining COP.to dec'10 C$0.585 03-oct-10 C$1.24 112.0% target made, trade closed
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2009
Closed positions closed closing PPS
Cardero Res CDY/CDU.to May'09 U$1.20 03-May-09 U$0.87 -27.5% sold on negative news
Eastmain Res. ER.to May'09 C$1.04 06-May-09 C$1.315 26.4% trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v May'09 C$0.165 03-May-09 C$0.235 42.4% trade closed
Latin Amer Min. LAT.v May'09 C$0.12 03-May-09 C$0.158 29.2% trade closed
Aquiline Res. AQI.to July'09 C$2.03 16-Jun-09 C$1.68 -17.2% took loss, bad timing
Chariot Resources CHD.to Aug'09 C$0.20 12-Jul-09 C$0.415 107.5% trade closed
Castle Gold CSG.v Sep'09 C$0.64 02-Aug-09 C$0.60 -6.3% ST trade didn't work out
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to Sep'09 C$2.30 12-May-09 C$4.50 95.7% profit taken
Los Andes Copper LA.v Sep'09 C$0.09 21-Jun-09 C$0.09 0% trade closed
Pediment Gold PEZ.to Oct'09 C$0.80 09-Aug-09 C$1.00 25.0% trade closed
Minera Andes MAI.to Oct'09 C$0.68 03-May-09 C$0.71 4.4% too much bad news
Dynasty Metals DMM.to Nov'09 C$4.18 03-May-09 C$6.01 43.8% half sold
Rusoro Mining RML.v Nov'09 C$0.55 03-May-09 C$0.57 3.6% underperformed
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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