IKN #252Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 252, March 9th 2014
Contents
This Week: Selling B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG), Five reason why we are now in a bull market for
gold stocks, Travelling.
Fundamental Analysis: The reasons why I’m selling B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG).
Stocks to Follow: Overview, Salazar Resources (SRL.v), Eco Oro (EOM.to), Santacruz Silver
(SCZ.v), Pretium (PVG.to) (PVG), Gold Resource Corp (GORO), Focus Ventures (FCV.v), Coro
Mining (COP.to), Rio Alto (RIO.to) (RIOM), True Gold (TGM.v), Minera IRL (IRL.to) (MIRL.L).
Copper Basket: Overview, NovaCopper (NCQ.to), Curis (CUV.to).
Low Cost Producer Basket: Overview, Freeport (FCX), B2Gold (BTG).
Regional Politics: The Fraser Institute 2013 survey, Mining in Venezuela (and beyond), Chile:
Energy supply upgrade on the way, Peru: “Conga isn’t a big deal”, Peru: Informal miners
threaten to descend on Lima, Colombia adds (yet another) layer of political bureaucracy to
permitting, Colombia: All systems go, Argentina: Everything is perfect in Santa Cruz, Dominican
Republic: The different one.
Market Watching: Regarding old picks.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Selling B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG)
As usual, a quick headsup on portfolio moves here at the top, so you don’t need to wade
through the muck of below if you don’t feel like it. I’m selling the rest of my B2Gold (BTO.to)
position, which is basically the half left over which to this day has been considered a core
position of the ‘Stocks to Follow’ list. The reason I’m selling the BTO is that I’m bullish this
market. Details on that below.
Five reason why we are now in a bull market for gold stocks
Well, in fact it’s even better than that, because we’re at the start of a bull market for gold
stocks and now’s the time to get positioned in order to benefit from what will happen in the
next couple of years. The type of action you want from the mining sector to be confident about
its medium-term future has shown up and evidence now abounds:
1) New money is moving into the sector. That starts with large, chunky share action
running through the Tier 1 miners and with a few exceptions (FCX, NEM) that’s exactly what
we’ve seen so far. In fact, it’s the precise reason why we started and are running the ‘low cost
producer basket’ section this year, because it gives us a handle and comparison for the seniors
vs the juniors. That money is now rotating into the smaller stocks which, which leads us to
reason number two.
2) Crappy stocks and their promoters are back. From near-total radio silence, we’re now
being pummelled once again by the “paid for coverage” people in mining, all the usual suspects
suddenly have something to say and more often than not, they’re promoting the failure
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companies that provide them with a monthly stipend. We’ve seen big gains in truly crappy
companies (sadly, I just can’t bring myself to buy or reco things like GPR.to, ITH.to, AUN.v and
more fool me, hey?) that don’t stand up to the most cursory of examinations in the world of the
serious person, and that means they’re not afraid to pay people to pump their hides. However,
it isn’t just the dumb end of the market that’s seeing the benefit.
3) Real financing deals are being struck, with brokerages suddenly open for bought deals
business, companies announcing and then expanding their private placements by popular
demand, the whole nine yards. It isn’t for every seedy two-bit company yet (and there are
many that won’t find a backer because they have nothing), but those deemed quality by the
market eyes have done deals and now we’re getting news of the dog end companies like U.S
Silver & Gold (USA.to) or Barkerville (BGM.v) running much-needed placements and backed by
the Sprotts of this world (already embedded into these dogs, but you can’t fault his cojones).
4) M&A activity has picked up. Primero for Brigus was a good one, a key move seems to
have been Goldcorp’s bid for Osisko (it felt that way at the time, too) and there have been a
fair handful of others too, but the thing here is that the whole atmosphere has changed.
Consider this headline (1) from September 5th 2013:
“Global mining deals down 74% and not much hope for 2014”
Now this one (2), from December 6th 2013:
“2014 looks bleak for mining industry, lawyers say”
But here comes 2014 and see the difference (3), from January 26th 2014:
“Mining News: Merger deal brightens juniors’ horizons”
And this one, (4) from February 25th 2014:
“EXCLUSIVE-Small miners size up mergers, deals may be elusive -Reuters survey”
I could continue, but anyone who hasn’t seen the pick-up in corporate-level dealmaking in the
last couple of months has not been paying attention to the mining sector. There have been
concrete deals, but the air of expectation is now equally as important and people (just like me)
are casting the runes and wondering where the next deal shows up.
5) Gold has bottomed. Ok, this one is debatable (and has been via my email inbox for a
couple of weeks with several people; when bullish listen to bears and vice versa) but what I see
is a new trend in gold that’s broken more than a few points of resistance between $1,190 and
$1,340 and has done more than enough to warrant serious respect. If you care to disagree with
that one then fine, it’s what makes a market after all, but if you think this chart...
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...runs the risk of reversal at 130 after trending higher since the middle of December, then why
not wait until 135 hows up, or maybe when those previous 137 peaks from June’13 and Sept’13
are beaten? But then of course you’d want to backtest and be sure of the move because that’s
what TA does, so there’s the 140 line for you as well.
By then RIO.to will be a $4 stock again and IRL will be trading in the 50s, but they’ll still be
time to grab on and get gains. More modest perhaps, but gains all the same. So yes, of course
there’s still a lot of nerves about and people telling you to be cautious; thing is that’s what
happens at the beginning of a bull market. In fact it can’t possibly be any other way, because a
fully confident sector would have already pushed stocks and valuations higher and be in the
mature phase of the cycle.
In the end, to follow and be interested in this most volatile of market sectors you have to be a
speculator at heart, it’s necessary to take risks. For well over a year it’s been tough going for
juniors and a lot of share prices have been crushed. As a result, it’s been a heads-down, no-
peeknig-over-parapets markets for a long time and in my personal case, no commitment of
larger cash (while keeping interest via the shorting of some stocks and some smaller, nearer-
term trading ideas in punctual situations). That time is now past at The IKN Weekly, it’s time to
get bullish and longer, take more risk on board and hold for longer periods. Big gains await
those who can see out the first rougher periods of a bull market, that’s where we are today.
Travelling
Next week I’m on the road and visiting Focus Ventures (FCV.v) Bayovar 12 phosphate property
in the Northern coastal region of Peru. The trip is Tuesday to Thursday, so expect light posting
on the blog those days. Expect a full report and any necessary change to the investment reco
on the stock next week.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Selling B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG)
The call to sell the rough 50% I have left of the original position in BTO almost happened on
Friday morning. Along with the newly bullish attitude round these parts, the run in BTO last
week that culminated with its close above $3.40 on Thursday got me thinking hard about how
much might be left in the tank for upside in BTO share and whether the cash embedded here
would be better off being used somewhere else. By the time I’d finished revising the numbers,
the late-ish Thursday evening decision was “Ok, if the BLS jobs report comes out gold-friendly,
I’ll send out the Flash update to call sell that day. If not, it can wait til the weekend”. As we
now know, the jobs numbers took the edge from gold’s run and as a result most stocks slipped
Friday, so I felt no rush in calling sell on BTO. Which brings us to today’s note.
Reasons to sell BTO
• First and foremost, because I firmly believe we’re entering a long-term bullish phase for
mining stocks.
• Due to that, I want to add more leverage and risk to the portfolio.
• I do not try to fake having a bottomless pocket of funds and money with which I can
play the market. This means that on occasion, it’s necessary to sell one thing in order
to buy another.
• I have not fully decided what I’m going to use the BTO funds to buy, or where the cash
ends up (at least some of that decision gets made on the road this week). But I know I
want to deploy it in stocks that can provide me with better potential percentage upside
than BTO.
• BTO is scheduled to report its quarter and year on Friday and I think it’s not going to
wow the market with its numbers. Neither will they be bad, but the occasion is more
likely to be one that sees BTO lose a few pennies from its PPS, rather than gain them.
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• I have NOT lost faith in BTO as a company, I still think it’s an excellent mining company
and a blue-chip amongst junior stocks. The reason to sell is because it’s flown first and
fast and although there may be some upside left, my contention is that others are more
likely to play catch up than seeing BTO streak further into the distance.
Intro over, details coming up.
Exhibit A: B2Gold has outperformed peers in 2014.
And as that above chart shows, has done so by quite a distance. This is largely due to its first
mover status and rightful place in the mind’s eye as a quality company run by a quality team.
It’s growth profile helps as well, as does its continued profitability. This is a top class company
on all levels, but then again it’s not the only one out there and to outperform GDX by 30% is
the type of run that only gets sustained by fundamentals.
Exhibit B: production growth in 2014 slight, real jump comes in 2015 and beyond.
OzAu BTO: annual production and estimates
700
600 Otjikoto
Masbate
500
Limón
400 Libertad
300
200
100
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014est 2015est 2016est
source: BTO filings, IKN ests
This chart shows the 2013 booked production of just over 376k oz gold (slightly under our
adjusted target of 380k for the year, due mainly to temporary glitches at Masbate that are now
overcome). BTO has guided for a consolidated production target of between 395k and 420k this
year, which makes sense from where we see the company and our target is close to the middle
of that range at 411k oz Au. This next quarterly chart shows how that breaks down a little
further:
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BTO: gold production by mine
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
5
01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 tse41q1 tse41q2 tse41q3 tse41q4
oz Au
Masbate prod
Limon prod
Libertad prod
source: company filings
In short, BTO is going to have a decent enough year in 2014, but the next real growth spurt
isn’t due until Otjikoto comes online, which may see commissioning and first pours earlier than
schedule but won’t be commercial until 2015. With the spurt seen in BTO this quarter, a lot of
the growth already looks baked in and there’s a year between us and real production
differences. And before moving to a few financial considerations, let’s remember that Masbate
added greatly to the production profile of BTO last year, but as that was a (nearly) all paper
deal the share count went up accordingly.
BTO: Shares outstanding
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
70q3 70q4 80q1 80q2 80q3 80q4 90q1 90q2 90q3 90q4 01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4
m S/O
source: company filings/IKN ests, plus IKN assumption of Volta deal
closing by Dec 31st 2013
So to the financials to come next Friday and we already know (because BTO told us (8) that
quarterly revenues came to U$138m from sales of 106,185 oz of gold (that’s a net average of
U$1299.62/oz, which is higher than the quarterly LME fix average of just over U$1,272/oz, so
good sales management on show).
BTO: operating revenues and costs
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 tse31q4
$m
revenues COGS Op. Rev
source: company filings, IKN ests for 4q13
By estimating COGS this brings us an operating revenue estimate of U$41.2m and once shares
count is factored in, it looks like this chart below

BTO: Operating Revenue per share, per qtr
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00
6
11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 tse31q4 tse41q1 tse41q2 tse41q3 tse41q4
$/share
source: company filings, IKN ests
We’re expecting BTO to run an operating revenue (not net, understand) of 7.3c/share, which is
10.4X its market cap in US dollar terms as at Friday’s close. That’s not cheap, folks. To give an
idea of that, it’s a little more difficult to give a straight line comparative with classic net EPS
with a growth story such as this, because the net number gets knocked out by other financials
at time (this time around we may see some minor impairments on some of the in-situ gold
ounces carried at $1,550/oz, though not all of them are priced in that high), but assuming
expenses etc come in at the average and there are no other one-time line items, that U$41.2m
estimated operating revenue would suggest a net profit for 4q13 of around U$18m, or
2.67c/share. That’s a 28X PE on Friday’s close and like I day, that’s not cheap even for a star-
player stock.
Which brings me to a valuation estimate for the company and the last couple of times we’ve
valued BTO (back in March/April, then back in November 2013) we went for an asset-based
valuation method which was summed up by this table:
B2Gold (BTO.to): Current asset-based valuation (all in US Dollars except target totals in Canadian Dollars)
operations adv. project other+cash Target
Au/oz Libertad Limon Masbate subtotal Otjikoto other total C$
1300 0.87 0.42 0.77 2.06 0.49 0.40 3.25
1350 0.93 0.45 0.86 2.24 0.53 0.40 3.49
1400 0.98 0.47 0.93 2.38 0.56 0.40 3.67
1450 1.04 0.49 1.00 2.53 0.60 0.40 3.88
1500 1.10 0.51 1.08 2.69 0.64 0.40 4.10
1550 1.15 0.54 1.15 2.84 0.67 0.40 4.30
1600 1.21 0.56 1.24 3.01 0.70 0.40 4.52
source: BTO data, IKN ests/calcs U$0.90 = CAD$1
I’ve stared at this for longer than is humanly healthy since last Thursday and tried to make a
case for adjustment of this-or-that item but in the end I’ve decided to let it stand as per, mostly
in order to give a straight line between the previous thoughts (when BTO was wildly
undervalued) and today (where it looks at, or close to its full value). The only different between
then and now is the CAD/USD forex, which is adjusted to U$0.90 = CAD$1 as per our revised
policy (for the record, all numbers apart from the pink column at the end are in USD, the target
is therefore for BTO.to and is in CAD$).
With gold at its current level (we assume U$1,350/oz for valuation purposes), our target is at
CAD$3.49, which was nearly touched last week and isn’t far away from Friday’s close, either.
And that’s the main issue here; it looks that BTO has fulfilled its ‘first mover’ sector status and
rushed strongly to something around full valuation on 2014 expected performance. There’s a lot
of the good news baked into this price now and although it wouldn’t surprise me much to see
BTO go higher, a move to $4 looks less likely unless of course gold puts in a decent spurt (I’d
fully expect BTO at $4 with $1,500/oz gold, for example).

Conclusion
The reasons why I’m liquidating my BTO next week are:
• A great company and stock, but it looks fully valued compared to peers and to its
upcoming quarterly financials.
• It may have upside left (and certainly does if gold goes higher), but other stocks will
likely provide better bang per buck from here.
• I’m not a bottomless pit of money, so if I want to add risk to the portfolio at least part
of the process is moving money from less risky equities to more risky equities. Hence
the sale.
The mere fact that a stock has moved up sharply doesn’t mean that it can’t continue to do so,
but the fundamentals and comparatives of BTO and other stocks strongly suggest that the fast
past of its upmove, at the very least, is now coming to a close. With the sector likely to benefit
from a much better atmosphere in 2014 (gold’s continued strength the baseline to that) I want
to take the not-unsubstantial amount of money I have in BTO and put it to work in other stocks
that should be able to offer better upside. Those stocks may be additions to current positions or
may be new longs, but whatever the eventual destination the cash raised isn’t likely to stay on
the sidelines for too long.
Stocks to Follow
Of the 13 open positions on our list, six made upmoves last week (RIO.to, BTO.to, EOM.to,
TGM.v, FCV.v, SRL.v), two were unchanged (IRL.to, DNA.to) and five went down (LRA.v,
COP.to, SCZ.v, PVG short, GORO short) which is even-ish on paper, but the fact is that the
portfolio had a very good week. That’s because Rio Alto made a big gain (RIO.to up 10.2%)
and put back just about all lost ground from the previous week. Along with RIO.to, Focus
Ventures (FCV.v up 12.2%) and Eco Oro Minerals (EOM.to up 8.7%) were strong. To the
downside, we note the drops in Coro Mining (COP.to down 12.0%) and Santacruz Silver (SCZ.v
down 9.0%).
With the swap of Darwin for Salazar there are still 13 open positions on our ‘Stocks to Follow’
list, two less than our self-imposed maximum .Seven are in the green and five are in the red,
but keep an eye on the closed losers underneath, because they count as well.
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Company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
Top Picks
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to str buy C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$2.60 13.0% best LT value
Minera IRL IRL.to hold C$0.30 22-jul-12 C$0.18 -40.0% top pick called at 24c, added
Longs
B2Gold BTO.to closing C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.34 8.9% selling to add more risk
Lara Expl. LRA.v hold C$1.15 08-apr-12 C$1.08 -6.1% solid biz model, LT hold
Eco Oro Min. EOM.to add C$0.48 22-sep-13 C$0.50 4.2% adding more, spec pol risk
Dalradian Res DNA.to hold C$0.65 27-oct-13 C$0.86 32.3% Holding on good run
Coro Mining COP.to buy C$0.125 26-jan-14 C$0.11 -12.0% Cu spec play, can add
True Gold TGM.v hold C$0.395 02-feb-14 C$0.41 3.8% Was flip, now LT hold
Santacruz Silver SCZ.v hold C$1.04 26-jan-14 C$1.01 -2.9% added, now full position
Shorts
Pretium Res PVG short U$5.38 22-nov-13 U$6.58 -22.3% $4 downside target
Gold Res Corp GORO short U$5.07 26-jan-14 U$5.52 -8.9% New re-short now full pos.
Smaller/Riskier
Focus Ventures FCV.v hold C$0.175 01-jul-12 C$0.275 57.1% visit next wk, report pending
Salazar Res SRL.v spec buy C$0.28 02-mar-14 C$0.29 3.6% small risky spec, vg rocks
Closed in 2014 closed close price
Fortuna Silver FVI.to jan'14 C$2.80 23-dec-13 C$3.19 13.9% small ST trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to jan'14 C$2.06 07-jun-13 C$2.30 11.7% trading position finally closed
Network Expl. NET.v feb'14 C$0.01 22-jul-12 C$0.005 -50.0% position closed, did nothing
Tahoe Resources TAHO feb'14 U$13.10 08-apr-13 U$21.72 -65.8% short closed due to reality
Darwin Res DAR.v mar'14 C$0.10 14-jul-12 C$0.045 -55.0% tiny risk play dropped
2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 closed positions in appendices below
Now for some notes on a selection of the above stocks.
Salazar Resources (SRL.v): Position opened. There was no point in buying the silly pop on
Monday morning, so once things had settled I took a small piece of 28c and that’ll do to begin
with. Be clear that this new trade is in the “Smaller/Riskier” category for a good reason.
Eco Oro Minerals (EOM.to): By way of a quick reminder, this weekend (5) sees the regional
and congressional elections in Colombia mentioned a couple of weeks ago. As the decision on
the boundary of the Santurbán páramo is expected after this vote, word from Colombia’s
environment ministry may now come at any time. As for trading EOM had what could be called
a ‘good PDAC’ and trended higher, though volumes didn’t really catch fire. This is our political
risk bet, so we wait for the news to hit before deciding what to do. But in theory 1) Colombia
speaks 2) price goes up 3) we sell. What could possibly go wrong?
Santacruz Silver (SCZ.v): Not a good week for SCZ, which traded down in the way that says
“we didn’t impress at PDAC”, not something that warms the cockles of your author’s heart. The
worry (yes I worry about things) is that we’re about to see further timeline delays on its
ramping of Rosario revealed when it gives us its annual and 4q13 numbers soon. By way of
reminder, the key phrase used in the 3q13 report was “Management is confident that the mine
plan remains on track to increase production to 500 tons per day by the end of the first quarter
of 2014”, so we want evidence of that being on course come the time.
One week of weak trading can just be an anomaly of course, so no rush to judgement.
However this is the one that caused most concern to my portfolio last week.
Pretium Resources (PVG) (PVG.to): PVG closed its flow-though placement last week that
added around $24m to its treasury. As the company has been relatively inactive in exploration
terms so far this quarter, the IKN best guess is that sales from its bulk sample gold program
8

last year will cover its burn, which means (in rough terms) that new+old treasury (from the
4q13 numbers last week (6), which came in with no surprises) means the company will have
around $35m in cash at the end of 1q14. That’s decent money but as soon as it starts the drills
turning again on this expensive development it’s not going to last, so PVG is near certain to
finance again this year, best guess 3q14.
In trading PVG acted slightly artificially, and that’s the main reason why I’m not in a rush to
close this short despite the growth of my bullish outlook for the market. No need to cover at
any price here, something closer to $6 is likely to show again at least.
Gold Resource Corp (GORO): GORO gave us news of ho-hum drilling results from its
‘Switchback’ discovery at El Aguila (7) which showed there was gold underground, but of the
same deep and thin veined variety that it now costs them to mine from reserves and resources.
For me the results were a wash, but the market reacted positively to what it saw so WTFDIK.
No news on the company’s annuals last week, so presumably at least we’ll see them in the
week to come (though they have until March 15th as a limit-limit to file, I believe). I’m definitely
staying short into that filing.
Focus Ventures (FCV.v): Next week a site visit to the exciting (darnit, tried not to use that
word and failed) Bayovar 12 phosphate project, so plenty more next week for sure and this
time I’m taking a camera with a memory
chip that works. Here today we’ll stick with
trading patterns and as is often the case, the
top half of this five day chart showing the
price action looks healthier than the bottom
part that shows the volume. Another week in
which no day saw 100k+ trading action, so
the lightly traded upmove will always be
prone to a sharp correction. And with
another reminder that 10 days of 25c+
pricings mean FCV can call in and exercise
those warrants, I’m not expecting the 27.5c
close of Friday to hold.
This play is now about the drilling taking
place. The market is paying a little more attention to FCV, but real news will drive its future
from here. That’s why i’m off to the desert corner of Peru’s coast next week.
Coro Mining (COP.to): COP dropped by 12% last week, but trading was very thin and the
company gave no NR to PDAC, so it’s not a downmove that is worth sweating about. The
9

combo of travel plus copper the metal’s weakness last Friday will put me off from adding at this
level next week (unless I sit down in the office Friday morning and change my mind, if so you’ll
hear about it). Same as last week it’s easy to hold COP, my idea of the small spec foot in the
copper exploreco door.
Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) (RIOM): RIO’s price action and traded volume was strong over
PDAC and it regained the lost ground of the week before, which is good. I’m due to catch up
with Alex Black in his office next week (his flight permitting, we’ll have a couple of hours
overlap in Lima) so some straight talk available on the state of the mine next weekend.
True Gold (TGM.v): This one is at last showing signs of life and just for a while on Thursday
threatened to break out from the current levels
and go challenge highs. It wasn’t to be, but the
PDAC week was also fuelled by decent news of
a drill discoveries at two new targets on its
main Karma property (see the NR (8) for details
of the hits, which were pretty positive looking
and may eventually add to the mine resource
and life). TGM was at pains to note that Karma
is a big geographical area, that there’s plenty of
places to go looking for more gold on their
grounds and that being a simple, open-pit type
of mine plan the production would be easily
scaleable.
Minera IRL (IRL.to) (MIRL.L): I’m meeting with IRL people on Tuesday, so expect an
overdue update on this position next weekend. I’ve been waiting for the opportunity to go face
to face with IRL before expounding further, but to give a little background to the way I
currently see and hear things a few words are in order, if only to assuage a few mails received
in the last couple of weeks...apologies for not replying to them, really wanted to get my facts as
straight as possible before saying anything.
What I’ve picked up from the wires and jungledrums is a general antipathy towards the stock
from people who don’t know it very well, but are in the type of influence-moving position in
certain professional houses that get their opinions quickly replicated. What seems to be
happening is that IRL gets a word as a potential, then boss person pulls up the financials, sees
the debt with Macquarie and makes an instant “no way” decision. Now, I have nothing
particularly against this way of doing business in general because that’s largely how I go about
filtering stock or company ideas myself; you can't follow them all and with a new idea, the first
place you look is the financials. If they pass 1st base then you can dig a little deeper, if not
move on. In the case of IRL I’m aware that anyone from a financial background that’s new to
the stock won’t get a great first impression from its financials, (it's not at 18c for nothing) but
I’m also aware that my own quick filtering system isn’t infallible (I’d guesstimate that over the
years perhaps 5% of stocks I should have paid attention to don’t get past first base). There are
“ones that get away" from an initial filtering system that does them no justice, and I’m
absolutely certain (note the conviction here) that IRL is one of them.
What that means is that I expect IRL will benefit greatly from the pick-up in the market. Why
so? That’s because the wonderful world of mining (and Macquarie for that matter) thinks that
IRL is currently a slave to Macquarie’s big ownership position and that for any financing deal for
Ollachea, the company is going to get screwed by the bankers leaving us poor equity holders
with mere crumbs. This is why I want to meet IRL face to face next week, because if what I’ve
heard on the other side of the famous market jungledrums is true this buyer's market for the
Ollachea asset is going to change and become a seller's market. We’ve already seen in several
places and deals that IF (repeat if) you have a decent gold asset the market is now affording it
more value then even a couple of months ago and what I’m now looking towards is a scenario
10

where Macquarie offers another crappy-ish deal to while assuming IRL has no other options,
but then IRL turns round and says "No thanks, because we have a better offer". At that point
the balance of power will shift and IRL gets a deal that works, be it from Macquarie or a third
party. The key here is getting a second firm offer and from what I hear that's what IRL is
working on now and on that point, I’m going to leave you all in suspense because I want to find
out as much as possible next week before commenting further.
Bottom line: Minera IRL looks really cheap right now, and don’t believe the opinions of the
average parrot-like Canadian brokerage spokesperson on this one because they’re behind the
curve.
The Copper Basket
After ten weeks of 2014 The Copper Basket is showing a 18.73% gain to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/14 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Augusta Res AZC.to 1.51 144.41 490.99 3.40 125.2%
2 Reservoir Min. RMC.v 4.97 47.5 340.58 7.17 44.3%
3 NGEx Resources NGQ.to 1.43 168.71 313.80 1.86 30.1%
4 Lumina Copper LCC.v 6.29 44.07 231.37 5.25 -16.5%
5 Hot Chili Ltd HCH.ax 0.425 333.11 149.90 0.45 5.9%
6 Nevada Copper NCU.to 1.35 80.5 128.80 1.60 18.5%
7 Copper Fox CUU.v 0.375 402.96 122.90 0.305 -18.7%
8 Western Copper WRN.to 0.76 93.68 84.31 0.90 18.4%
9 NovaCopper NCQ.to 1.60 53.4 74.76 1.40 -12.5%
10 Curis Resources CUV.to 0.57 74.79 71.05 0.95 66.7%
11 Panoro Minerals PML.v 0.35 204.71 61.41 0.30 -14.3%
12 Cordoba Min. CDB.v 0.45 31.88 19.13 0.60 33.3%
13 Coro Mining COP.to 0.10 159.37 17.53 0.11 10.0%
14 AQM Copper AQM.v 0.11 139.05 16.69 0.12 9.1%
15 Oracle Mining OMN.to 0.27 49.03 10.79 0.22 -18.5%
NB: HCH.ax priced in AUD$, rest CAD$ Portfolio avg 18.73%
The basket average dropped just 0.23% overall, which was better than I expected after the
way Friday’s copper market shaped.
The Copper basket 2014, weekly evolution
Eight stocks went up (NGQ.to, HCH.ax, 25%
NCU.to, NCQ.to, WRN.to, CUV.to, AQM.v,
20%
CDB.v) and seven went down (LCC.v,
AZC.to, RMC.v, CUU.v, PML.v, COP.to, 15%
OMN.to)), so the basic count was pretty even
10%
too. Best of the winners was Nevada Copper
(NCU.to up 9.6%), while worst of the losers 5%
were two of the smallest caps on the list,
0%
Coro Mining (COP.tp down 12.0%) and
Oracle Mining (OMN.to down 10.2%).
The week’s big metals story was the drop in
copper on Friday, that seems to have been cause by a combo of a first-ever Chinese corporate
bond default (9) (which although no massive deal in itself sent a ripple of nerves through Sino-
market concerns and wondering whether it was merely the first of many), then Ukraine nerves
and then the Friday jobs report that sent most of the commodities complex lower. But the net
effect was a sharp drop and copper fell out of its comfort zone for the first time in a while. To
make it a really special occasion however, it will need to stay there and not spike back into the
11
ht5naj ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2ram ht9
source: IKN calcs

trading range (as seen the last couple of occasions). This first five-day chart shows how copper
fell off its own little cliff as March 6th became
March 7th, then the dailies chart below it gives us
some more context. Expect a lot of eyes on the
base metals complex next week, all wondering
whether it was just another spike or whether
something bigger has just changed.
As for inventories, the script of “less LME more
Shanghai” continues and until the Chinese end of
world stocks starts levelling out, copper bulls are
in for a hard time methinks. Total world stocks
rose a little in fact, up a very minor 403 metric
tonnes (mt) to finish at 487,712mt. Of that total,
Comex stocks dropped again by 1,406mt
(11.0%) to finish at 11,392mt, then LME stocks
dropped by 7,225mt (2.6%) to 269,000mt, while
Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse
inventories moved up 9,034mt (4.6%) to finish
at 207,320mt. Around the world the LME
warehouses are being emptied and the stocks going to
Shanghai, except for one place, the relative backwater LME
warehouses of New Orleans which hold 167,300 tonnes of
the world total, basically a third of the total.
Now for some updates on component stocks on just two of
our component stocks:
NovaCopper (NCQ.to): A Friday evening NR (10) from
NCQ notified the world that the company was cancelling its
round of financing announced Feb 19th. Reasons why this
announcement makes perfect sense:
On Feb 19th NCQ traded at $1.50. This weekend it’s at $1.46
and has been as low as $1.36 in the interim, all on low
volumes. In short, there’s not much interest in the stock from
third parties.
Roughly half of the $20m proposed placement was due to come from the NovaCopper big
backers, including New York based Electrum, Paulson & Co and then Baupost. That cash is
almost certainly still available
The difference in recent fortunes between
NovaCopper and its mothership company
NovaGold (NG) (from which it was spun out) is
stark. This chart is ample evidence to show how
much better 2014 has been to the bigger “nova”,
which closed Friday at U$4.03 (CAD$4.46). No
matter what I might think about that stock (for
the record, way overvalued) there’s a lot of equity
value there and if the group is serious about NCQ,
it would come as no surprise to see some sort of
incestuous deal done.
Curis Resources (CUV.to): I watched this one with interest last week, because there’s now
growing evidence that its run up of the week before wasn’t some flash in the pan and there’s
12

serious cash accumulating CUV now.
The Low Cost Producer Basket
After 10 weeks, the Low Cost Producer Basket is showing a 18.78% gain to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/14 Shares out Mkt Cap (Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Freeport FCX 37.74 1040 33.48 32.19 -14.7%
2 Goldcorp GG 21.67 812 21.96 27.04 24.8%
3 Barrick ABX 17.63 1000 19.91 19.91 12.9%
4 Newmont NEM 23.03 497.87 12.25 24.60 6.8%
5 Silver Wheaton SLW 20.19 357.39 9.00 25.18 24.7%
6 Franco Nevada FNV 40.74 147.01 7.45 50.65 24.3%
7 Agnico Eagle AEM 26.38 173.43 5.62 32.38 22.7%
8 Pan American PAAS 11.70 151.41 2.16 14.28 22.1%
9 B2Gold BTG 2.02 651.4 1.98 3.04 50.5%
10 First Majestic AG 9.80 117.02 1.30 11.14 13.7%
all prices in U$, using NYSE ticker prices Portfolio avg 18.78%
The basket average added back a little, though at 5.1% gap from its control benchmark GDX,
it’s the biggest difference between
The Low Cost Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
us and them since this experiment
comparative to GDX control
began. For the first time we had a 30%
splitting of the ways with
25%
components too, with six making
20%
gains (GG,, NEM, AEM, PAAS, BTG,
AG) and four making losses (FCX, 15%
ABX, SLW, FNV). Best move was 10%
seen in B2Gold (BTG up 5.9%)
5%
though a specific round of applause
0%
goes to Newmont (NEM up 5.8%),
as for one that large it was a big
rebound...and overdue, too.
Freeport McMoRan (FCX): Things were going
so much better for the hit-upon FCX last week,
right up to Friday when the bottom fell out of
copper and FCX saw all its gains from the week
taken away. Also, as this chart shows the nearly
25 m shares traded via its main NYSE ticker comes
in at more than double normal traded volume.
FCX can’t seem to catch a break this year.
B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to): Another quick word
about BTG at this point, as well as covering it in
the ‘Fundamentals...’ today and calling sell on the
portion I still own, because I freely admit that part of the reason I’m selling is because BTG and
performed so well compared to its larger neighbours of this list. Sure it has that air of wonderful
about it, but we’re now at the stage where it looks expensive next to larger companies like
AEM, not just outperforming market cap peers such as PAAS or AG.
Regional politics
13
ts13ceD ht5naj ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32 dn2ram ht9
basket
gdx control
source: Yahoo! Finance, IKN calcs

The Fraser Institute 2013 survey
To begin, you can get your copy of the Fraser 2013 report on this link (11) published last week
(as usual, timed to come out at PDAC) and as it’s one of the standard reads of the industry
you’re highly recommended to do just that. With that said, I need to voice the problems I have
with The Fraser Institute’s report, both in terms of methodology and also how it (mis)shapes
industry opinion. For this I’ll focus in on Peru as an example, though many of the comments
apply equally to other countries.
First the method and to give a snapshot of things, here’s the main “league table” of LatAm
countries from the report (there are other tables that cut and slice data in different ways, for
that and for coverage on other world regions you need to read the whole thing).
First thing to note is that French Guiana scores higher than Peru. In fact, of the 112 countries
or regions surveyed, Peru is placed exactly in the middle of the pack at 56th (Venezuela gets
11th out of 112, you’ll notice). Just behind comes Panama.
• Point one: Ranking countries with little or no history of formal mining operations, of
no “mining culture” and where development is early-stage at best over a country with
hundreds of years of mining history, infrastructure, workforce and legal backing does
not even pass the smell test.
Next, note that Argentina isn’t amongst the countries in that above list, because Argentina gets
its own regional breakdown in a separate section which is shown here:
14

And here you can see that Salta and San Juan regions are rated a better place to go mining
than Peru, while Mendoza is one of the world’s worst places.
• Point two: Why does Argentina get ‘regional’ treatment while Peru does not? This is
an obvious weakness in the survey, because if Argentina were treated as a single entity
its overall score wouldn’t be bad, it would be awful. Or on the other side of the coin,
Peru deserves regional examination because the situation as regards mining in regions
(i.e. States) such as Pasco, La Libertad, Moquegua or Arequipa are far better than
those in Loreto, Cajamarca, Ucuyali. The fact of the matter is that Peru is a complicated
map for mining companies and is full of local issues and regional idiosyncrasies, so
considering it as a single region gives a wholly incorrect impression. This is true also of
other countries, Mexico and Colombia spring to mind.
We then come to the opinions and quotes included in the Fraser report. Even though Fraser
does do a CYA operation with its normal caveat at the beginning of this long section ,which
states...
“This survey captures both general and specific knowledge of respondents. A
respondent may give an otherwise high-scoring jurisdiction a low mark
because of his or her individual experience with a problem. We do not believe
this detracts from the survey.”
...that’s naive at best. Nearly every “report of the Fraser report” in media channels, every year,
will quote the comments in this section and the impression given is very often a negative in
those quotes. Not only that, but in the case of Peru (my example today) the look is very often
that where somebody has screwed their own roost due to their own bad practices and then
thinks that their experience applies to everywhere in the country equally. I mean, if the people
running Dorato Resources were the judges on the country’s mining sector, the place would
score lower than Venezuela! So yes, I disagree with Fraser and say that the comments
delivered do indeed detract from the survey, especially in this soundbite world where we now
live. Talking of which, here are a couple of examples of the quotes about Peru from this year’s
edition:
“Very complicated situations in Bolivia and Peru regarding social forces
against the mining industry.”
Yes perhaps, if you’re in the wrong place or you made a hash of your own community relations
“Community decisions are not binding and subject to change at each local
election, non-stop community meetings, huge increase in cocaine production
and trafficking in northern Peru.”
Again for the first point that’s your experience in Majaz, not his experience in Huancavelica.
Second, what’s so bad about having non-stop community meetings? If the idea of excluding
locals from the stakeholder process or not letting them be involved when it doesn’t suit you
sound bad, you should have picked somewhere else to go exploring. As a wise man once said
to me when explaining the difference between operating in Brazil and operating in Peru, for
100% of a budget, in Brazil you spend 90% of it on lawyers and 10% of it on community
relations. In Peru you spend 10% of it on lawyers and 90% of it on community relations. And
lastly, tell me why cocaine trafficking should be a problem to you? Not a problem in Colombia,
Mexico, Guatemala?
I’m not trying to make out Peru as a perfect jurisdiction for mining operations, but I am telling
you that you get a clear false impression about the place from the Fraser report and with local
knowledge, experience and a basic positive attitude towards communities from the beginning
that derives from plain common sense, you avoid the problems that others are all too quick to
15

illustrate. Our example country rates in 35th place in the lesser “Best Practices Mineral Potential
Index”, which is compiled on “pure mineral potential” rather than all the human nonsense that
countries pile on top of companies and that’s closer to the reality, but if Salta Argentina gets to
be 41st in the world as a region, there are some specific places in Peru that would be in the top
20 if split away from the trouble areas. And again, it’s the soundbite impression that comes
from the report that reaches the wider bizmedia, not the details. To give a separate example
away from Peru, I read on Saturday in Chile’s radioagricultura (12) that, “In five years, Chile
has gone from 7th to 30th place in the ranking compiled by The Fraser Institute of Canada”.
Which is ostensibly true, but what’s (conveniently) omitted from that statement is how Fraser
now covers many more regions and not just countries (e.g. Argentina split into 11 bits) and five
years ago, there were only 72 places included in the survey rather than the 112 of today. That
shock-treatment headline is sophistry, not fact.
To wrap up, the larger problem is that of credibility of the report. As I know a bit about Peru
mining (not everything, but quite a lot of the scene has rubbed off on me this last decade, has
to be said) it becomes easy to pick holes in the comments and scoring system, which is also
true for other places in LatAm (just to take one example, some anonymous commenter
complains that in Guatemala a Presidential candidate is calling for 50% royalties to be levied
against mining companies. In fact that call came from one Archbishop Álvaro Ramazzini of San
Marcos State and dates back to 2009, so it’s hardly topical or an immediate threat to mining
there). So I’m supposed to swallow whole Fraser’s opinions and ranking of countries in Africa?
Of Australian regions? Its view of British Columbia versus Quebec? If in my view the basis and
methodology, not to mention those view-skewing comments and anonymous quotes, are
misleading and not based on sound practices, it’s kind of tough to use the report as a case for
going to or avoiding a jurisdiction in a country I know precisely zero about.
Bottom line: Fraser Mining Report: Pinch of salt.
Mining in Venezuela (and beyond)
"Believe me, it's not about the oil."
George Bush Sr.
LatAm’s trouble neighbourhood gets an airing today for a change, because we have something
to report that directly about mining. This article (13) is on a PDAC round-table and is entitled,
“New wave of first movers consider Venezuela’s mineral wealth”. As it’s pretty self-explanatory
I’ll just quote a couple of passages:
TORONTO (miningweekly.com) – Mining companies are starting to see Venezuela as an
increasingly attractive proposition for future investment Norton Rose Fulbright partner Jorge
Neher told delegates at a Latin America roundtable on March 4.
Neher practises both in Colombia and Venezuela, specialising in mining, electricity, energy and
resources.
They have been spurred on as President Nicolas Maduro’s Chavist regime starts to teeter.
....
Neher reports growing client and company interest in Venezuela. “They sense something is
happening and they want to be the first to have a foot in the door when things change. And when
things do finally change in Venezuela, the country [has the potential] to be a leading nation in both
the mining and oil and gas sectors,” he said.
“Canadian companies have always been the spearhead of resource investment around the world,
so I expect Canadian investors will be at the forefront into Venezuela when the time comes,” he
added.
“So while I don’t know when, I do know it will be huge,” he continued.
You may agree or disagree with the government of Venezuela’s stance and politics (I’m strongly
opposed to them). You may agree or disagree with the opposition (I made my views on that
one clear in this post over at the blog (14) which began “One of the main problems with the
16

Venezuela situation today is that you might not be into the Maduro government, but the
choices offered by the established opposition are pretty freakin' cruddy too.”) or its new
militancy (I’m opposed, they’re trying to overthrow by violent and illegal means a government
elected by its people and ratified in regional government elections as legitimate late last
year...sorry, but election democracy counts for something). But we’re living in 2014, an age
where information moves at a vastly different speed to that of the early 1990’s when the Gulf
War, Kuwait and eventually Iraq’s oil were the big prizes to be cut up and distributed to the
winners. The need for capital investment in Venezuela in the event of a regime change may
well be true, but the type of views aired by Neher are fuel to the fire and offers the type of
solid evidence Maduro needs to back up his Imperialist conspiracy theories. Not only that, but if
the end game for Venezuela is to profit from its disorder, you can bet your mortgage on any
change in government isn’t the end of the instability there, just as the country’s troubles were
already long-standing before a certain Mr Chávez came on the scene.
Venezuela is FUBAR and for investment purposes I wouldn’t touch the place under any
circumstances, but the point is larger than that. The above is not the way to do business in
Latin America, not any longer, that mentality belongs to the 20th century and needs to be
confined to history. Until this point has sunk in, there will continue to be a whole bunch of
Northerners who will fail and continue to fail in their dealings here and in all countries, not just
Venezuela.
Chile: Energy supply upgrade on the way
This week Chile’s government ruled (15) that seven electricity power stations planned for the
North of the country would be permitted “without the need for indigenous consultancy” because
the locations of the seven planned plants would not interfere with any sacred zones or
archeologically important sites (among other reasons). This is probably the government pushing
through its plans rather roughly but they’re likely to get away with it too and if so, will be one
the way to solving the energy bottleneck in the North Chile region that has seen mining
companies baulking at further development.
Peru: “Conga isn’t a big deal”
The strong smell of BS came from the mouth of Buenaventura (BVN) chief Roque Benavides
last week when asked about the troubled Conga gold project in Cajamarca region, Peru (owned
by Yanacocha, which is in turn 43.5% BVN, 51.5% NEM and 5% World Bank).
When asked about the project by Peru’s biggest radio news channel RPP while at the Peru Day
festivities in New York (the Peru delegation rang the opening bell at NYSE, etc) he said (16):
“It’s a copper project with gold, it’s not the biggest project, but it’s a project with adequate
profitability and we consider that it could give a lot of extra life to allow us to continue exploring
in the Yanacocha zone”. He then went on to explain that the project is still profitable despite
the drop in gold and copper prices in the last couple of years.
To start with its a gold project with a copper kicker, as the quickest glance at any economic
cash flow study will soon show (call the revenues 2/3rd gold and 1/3rd copper, as a rough
guide), so why Roque would want to make it out to be a copper project can only be some kind
of political spin. Second, if he thinks a U$5Bn capex project isn’t that big he needs to check
what “big” means. Thirdly, that “profitable” line is pure BS. Sure you could get it running free
cash flow positive at $1.3k/oz gold and $3/lb copper, but this isn’t a real option for a mine to be
built until gold gets past $1.5k (my numbers can be defended at leisure on a later date, but it’s
not that difficult a model).
The reason Roque doesn’t want Conga to be an issue (it’s reasonably profitable, it’s reasonably
big, it’s not gold really y’know, in the end it’s not that big a deal) is that he doesn’t want it to be
a leading issue in the upcoming regional election in Cajamarca in October, and that’s because
he doesn’t want to provide fuel to the opposition camps, led by Gregorio Santos.
In other Conga news (17), a group of mining executives (no other details were given) went to a
17

village festival last week and after having a few beers, got a bit rowdy and starting shouting
their support for the Conga project and arguing with locals. It ended with the visitors having
one of their three vehicles set on fire (nobody in it at the time, hasten to add) which indicates
that feelings are still running deep, even if the whole issue has slipped away from national
headlines.
Peru: Informal miners threaten to descend on Lima
The planned “small/artisanal-type” (i.e. illegal) miners’ strike planned for March 17th and led by
(embarrassingly) Ollanta Humala’s own father Isaac is in final planning stages. One event now
planned (18) is to bring around 5,000 illegal/informal miners from the Puno region (Madre de
Dios and Rinconada) to Lima in order that they march through the streets of the capital. If that
part of the strike action happens as indicated watch out, because it has the hallmarks of a
potential violent flashpoint.
Colombia adds (yet another) layer of political bureaucracy to permitting
Thanks to reader PM (and RM) for the headsup on this. Last week Colombia’s constitutional
court was handed down a ruling on whether a specific point of the country’s new mining law,
namely whether the country could indeed impose a mining project on a local area without the
permission of its regional authorities, was constitutional. The basic story here is that
• The national government wants that to be the case, because it makes it easier to push
forward with its pro-mining agenda
• Several regional authorities oppose it, because they don’t want mines set up in their
localities (with the test case being the Tolima region’s opposition to AngloGold Ashanti’s
massive La Colosa gold project).
• The law line item was sent to the courts.
On Wednesday the Constitutional Court handed down its ruling (19) and on a vote of 5 to 2,
side with the government. BUT (and here’s the rub) it also stated in so many words that locals
cannot be left out of the decision process and must be consulted and have participation in the
permitting process and debates thereof. In other words, the courts have just added another
layer of bureaucracy (and likely delays) to the permitting process of any mining project in
Colombia. It also points to the bad way in which the new law has been put together and can be
challenged rather easily by any authority in the country which might want to do so. In short,
the Colombia mining snafu continues, no end in sight.
Colombia: All systems go
Ah but wait, that’s all wrong, because according to declarations at PDAC by the Minister of
Mines in Colombia, Amylkar Acosta (20), “the inconveniences of the mining and energy sectors
have been solved little by little, thereby positioning the “locomotive” (the growth and
development catchphrase in Colombia’s government) as an important source of financing for
the government budget.” Acosta continued by saying:
“We have been making a great effort so that mining can move forward with social responsibility
and without detriment to environmental sustainability, so that it’s done with something
fundamental; with transparency.”
So our impressions of Colombia as a difficult place to get legal stability for mining are in fact
misplaced, because the country’s mining minister said so at PDAC. We stand corrected.
Argentina: Everything is perfect in Santa Cruz
Another place to get the pure positive spin at PDAC was Argentina, with much focus on the
Santa Cruz region in the South. During its country presentation (21) at the conference, we
heard Mining Minister Jorge Mayoral tell the world that the region was a great place to set up a
mine, followed swiftly by presentations by Eduardo Villcorta of Goldcorp (Cerro Negro) saying
that things were going well at the project (which is what you’d expect to hear after the
company had committed nearly $4Bn to the mine). Latero Mayoral congratulated Yamana’s
18

Peter Marrone for the commitment his company has shown to the region (Cerro Moro).
Dominican Republic: The different one
Also at PDAC, the government of Danilo Medina put its best foot forward and promised four
new government level initiatives to help grow the mining industry inside Dominican Republic
(22). The measures planned are:
• Promote the passage of a new mining law
• Develop the institutional strength of the National Mining Board
• A new government policy for the development of the mining geology sector
• Support the development of small-scale mining
They all sound pretty bureaucrat-ese, but the signals here are pretty good because mining has
turned into something of a vote winner for President Medina since he re-negotiated the State
burden contract with Barrick Pueblo Viejo and got more money for the country from the mine.
This government is now keen to double down on that success and attract more companies into
the country and as the majority of his fellow citizens seem to cautiously approve of the policy
(there’s always a no-mining section of society though, anywhere you go) chances are that we’ll
see this happening. Overall, Dominican Republic is one of the few LatAm jurisdictions that has
impressed me over the last year or so with its positive attitude towards mining and there may
be a decent future for juniors and explorecos that set up here. One that’s been getting positive
reviews recently (after being hyped way too much and flying too high before) is Goldquest
(GQC.v) and although its current 43-101 compliant resource is smaller than first speculated,
there’s room for the deposit to grow and even if it doesn’t could be a small mine with what it
has today.
Market Watching
Regarding old picks
I meant to comment on a mail received on February 27th from reader FH, but it slipped my
mind. Fortunately F nudged me again late last week so here’s the note. First, the main body of
F’s mail:
“I was hoping I might get your advice on some stocks I am holding. I believe
most were old picks of yours. I know your call was to sell many moons ago but
I didn't.
...
Are any of these worth holding much longer? I have positions in BHV, EST,
LPK, PLA, REG, SRD, SWD, TRY, VEM, YMI and ZNC.”
And now for a reply, which come in three parts. First a quickie on coverage of old picks here,
second the meat of the article and some direct comments on the stocks noted (and yes, they’re
all companies we’ve covered and I’ve owned to a greater or lesser extent via these pages), and
last up some more general comments about how these type of holds can affect portfolio
management.
First, it needs to be said that it’s not the normal way of things to retain coverage on closed
positions, because once they’re closed they’re closed. All the above were held by me at some
point, but once I’ve moved on they tend not to get much mention. On occasion I’ll go back to a
closed stock and start a new trade going again and in that case coverage will continue. But in
general I feel no real compulsion to keep track of stocks I’ve traded and closed, mainly for the
practical reason that there’s enough to do monitoring open trades and looking for future
19

potentials and there’s only so many hours available per day.
Now for the practical thoughts on each stock mentioned by FH
BHV.v (Bellhaven Copper & Gold): It has community issues (that church which sits on the
property) and it’s one of these low grade porphyry gold (with copper kicker) deals that the
market once liked and now hates. It’s also short of cahs in the danger of a sizeable dilution is
clear. BUT this one could rally thanks mainly to the 43-101 count and its rock bottom share
price (and remember, that toerag Thom Calandra pumps this which is my idea of hellish
coverage, but at least it has a chance of getting its name put in front of a bunch of neophytes
at some point). It wouldn’t take much more than a round of positive macro news out of
Colombia for miners plus a few people searching round for a deep bargain for this one to put in
a relief rally (though I wouldn’t hold my breath on that mine being built). I wouldn’t sell now
and those of you looking for a high risk trade could do worse.
EST.v (Estrella Gold): Sell This one has just done a deal on its Colpayoc property with an
Australian firm, which has breathed some sort of life into the structure. But it’s still a company
that’s gone nowhere and success chances are slim so it’s one I’d liquidate given the chance.
LPK.to (Lupaka Gold): Sell. This is one of my biggest mistakes since starting the letter, because
I didn’t sell it when I should have, hung on and paid the price. When I eventually got out the
damage was done, but it’s down even further since then and there’s no reason to expect any
change to that. It holds dubious assets and it’s going nowhere, that’s my call.
PLA.v (Plata Latina): Sell. On the plus side it has cash to tide itself over and smart people who
have preserved treasury through the rough period. On the minus side its business plan is to drill
deep for very-high-grade silver targets and its program so far hasn’t come near to repeating the
success of its discovery hole (on which the corporate financing and structure was built. Silver is
out of fashion pricewise and these deep holes are expensive, not a good combo. Its lightly
traded so not easy to liquidate, but I’d sell if a buyer shows up.
REG.v (Regulus Resources): This is one I mentioned a few weeks back and although its asset is
in Argentina (Rio Grande) and it hasn’t lived up to initial promise, it could be one to hold onto.
That’s because it has ~12c per share of cash, which is a strong backbone. It’s also optioning
into a project in Canada (owned by REG directors, the Leask brothers), so it has an explorer’s
chance of finding something to move the market this year.
SRD.v (Strait Minerals): Sell. Since dropping SRD, we’ve had results from the Alicia property JV
with Teck that were for all intents and purposes dusters, then the decision by Teck on Feb 13th
to hand back on the JV option (23). That’s all you really need to know about SRD at this stage,
this is one that’s best left and what little money you can retrieve placed somewhere else.
SWD.to (Sunward Resources): A little more difficult to call, but it’s still a sell in my opinion. First
up, it’s shown life at these current prices and from a baseline price of 20c or so has popped to
30c , then after falling back to 20c reached 25c and its Friday close of 23c. That’s a long-
winded way of saying that I wouldn’t sell out at any price, but wait for a window (28c? 30c?).
Secondly, although it’s in the unfashionable “low grade, high tonnage bulk mining” category,
along with no-hope stocks such as Exeter, International Tower Hill, NovaGold, Chesapeake and
others, the SWD Titiribi mine is theoretically more workable than others due to large size,
higher grading starter pit opportunities, plus lower capex and opex profiles thanks to its location
in Colombia. However, it’s that very location of Colombia which is also a (def. permitting,
potentially community) problem and the fact is that even if I see a bit more hope in this stock
compared to its peers, it’s still mightily out of fashion as part of that group. I’d like to be wrong,
but I can’t see a future for any of these stocks unless gold zooms back to its past highs and if
that happens, i’ll be happy enough on other horses. The bottom line here is that the risk/reward
doesn’t cut it for me so while it still has some equity value, I’d dump and take the loss if I still
held. Good theory, didn’t work out.
20

TRY.to (Troy Resources): The last qtr was pretty good, costs under control, good production
and it seems very keen on pressing forward with its Guyana project. But its main exposure is to
Argentina and I couldn't hold anything without checking the political news pages every 15
minutes. You could play it as a speculation and potentially benefit from the current quarter
where Argentina’s currency controls are loosening, the exchange rate is more favourable and
gold has rebounded. That combo suggests an earnings spike, but inflation will probably catch
up to the bottom line in the second half of 2014. Overall not the worst and if you hold today I
wouldn’t be in a big hurry to sell. But I wouldn’t own due to the Argentina angle.
VEM.to (Vena Resources): The basic problem here is that it has no money and due to that I
avoid, period. However, the newly revised JV deal with Forrester on the Las Princesas property
gives it a bit of life and makes sense, especially as Peter Mullens is on board with Forrester.
He’s an ace geol and his Peru rock knowledge is second to none, so the mere fact he's
interested in Las Princesas is eyecatching (he discovered pico machay, almusar, many others)
YMI.to (Yellowhead Mining): Sell. Going nowhere, out of favour property with community and
enviro permitting issues, revolving door directorate plus neighbour Copper Mountain (CUM.to)
showing zero interest in doing a deal, even at its knockdown market cap. Sell and move on.
ZNC.to (Zincore Metals): The problem is the lack of cash. Its property is stil prospective and JV
partner First Quantum may have moved in on ZNC on very favourable terms (getting big
chunks of the deal for a low price in order to keep ZNC afloat), but it’s been tenacious so far
and must like the geology of Accha and think there’s a shot at a big copper porphyry. It’s a
tough call, but i’d sell this one as well and move on because it looks as though ZNC is getting
diluted out of its property and even if something nice shows up, it won’t be able to benefit.
The last part of this note is probably the most important. One of the reasons I stick to a 15
open position maximum in the covered stocks of The IKN Weekly is to maintain the type of
portfolio discipline necessary for success. It’s all too easy (and I know because I’ve been down
this road) to buy a bit of this, a bit of that, then watch them underperform and stick them in
some sort of mental remainder drawer, or simply ignore them when opening the port page.
Then some way down the line, one or three years later, you can’t even remember why you
bought it in the first place or what it’s doing there as something you actively own. I’m not trying
to get at you FH, because you’re by no means alone in this and you’re not the only person to
hold remnants then wonder what to do with them at a later date, but the fact must be faced
that it’s a mistake, that the cash that is (or more to the point was) locked up in these share can
be (would have been) better deployed in another place.
The Stocks to Follow list has its self-imposed maximum mainly for my own mental and financial
health, as it makes me think carefully about what I really want to do with my money and when
a change of direction is warranted (such as now, with a newly bullish atmosphere now
emerging) how to expose my cash to the forces of the market. It can feel psychologically
difficult for some people to sell at a loss and to be frank, I don’t find it 100% simple myself but
when push comes to shove, I’ve learned enough about the market to know that you can’t win
them all, that humility makes you more money than arrogance and that cutting your losses
(sometimes deep ones too) is a necessary pat of the process for longer-term success. I’m not
anyone’s fund or portfolio manager here (apart from my own) and due to that at some point
this note might start sounding preachy, so I’m going to wrap it up in a line or two. I’m not a
perfect investor myself, but I know and have learned that selling losers isn’t a luxury or an
option, it’s a necessity.
Or put another way, if I were FH I’d sell all those positions tomorrow morning without drawing
breath and then buy RIO.to with the proceeds.
21

Conclusion
IKN252 is done, we end with bullet points:
• Selling a producing gold miner is a bullish move for the sector. B2Gold 8BTO.to) has
risen higher and faster than the crowd, but what I’m looking for now is more risk
leverage and not just another 10% or 15% from a solid name. As Friday sees the 4q13
and annuals report and it looks as though BTO will deliver to the market’s expectation,
nothing beyond, it’s time to move this decent chunk of money to somewhere that gives
real bang per buck from a newly bullish sector.
• Focus Ventures (FCV.v) site visit coming up this week, and it’ll be good to get on my
first visit this year. The North of Peru is different from the South in the same way
Arizona is different from Montana, or Southern Spain is different from Northeast France,
so it’ll nice nice to get some different scenery too.
• Along with FCV, I get face time with management of both our Top Pick stocks next
week, IRL and RIO. All tidbits and snippets to come.
• I’ve been wanting to get that off my chest about the Fraser Institute Survey for a while.
It’s more the way its findings are taken as some kind of biblical truth that irks, more
than the granular research, because as a place to kick off research it seems generally
ok but with some holes. However, the way in which its conclusions are often at odds
with what I see hear smell touch taste in LatAm has given me many a pause for
thought.
• We’re in a bull market for gold stocks, and the sooner you realize is and shake off those
early run nerves, the better it will be for all of us. Follow me into my preferred plays,
listen to a different stockpicker, pick your own, use a sector ETF or whatever other
method you prefer, but be long now and stay long in 2014, no matter what choppiness
shows up in the days and weeks ahead, the months and years will make you richer.
Don’t say you weren’t warned.
The top long-term picks are Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) and Minera IRL (IRL.to). I thank
you in advance for any feedback. Flash updates will be sent promptly if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Otto
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) http://www.mining.com/global-mining-deals-down-74-percent-and-no-much-hope-for-2014-90134/
(2) http://business.financialpost.com/2013/12/06/2014-looks-bleak-for-mining-industry-lawyers-say/
(3) http://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/553474307.shtml
(4) http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/02/25/mining-pdac-deals-idUKL2N0LN0KO20140225
(5) http://colombiareports.co/alcohol-ban-begins-colombian-election-weekend/
(6) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pretivm-reports-fourth-quarter-end-001217721.html
(7) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-corporation-expands-switchback-discovery-233500554.html
(8) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/true-gold-intersects-high-grade-113000067.html
(9) http://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3317073/Base-metals/LME-OFFICIALS-Copper-prices-hit-seven-month-low-as-
China-bond-default-smacks-confidence.html
22

(10) http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1319201/novacopper-cancels-previously-announced-financing
(11) https://www.fraserinstitute.org/uploadedFiles/fraser-ca/Content/research-news/research/publications/mining-survey-
2013.pdf
(12) http://www.radioagricultura.cl/client/radioOnline.html
(13) http://www.miningweekly.com/article/new-wave-of-first-movers-consider-venezuelas-mineral-wealth-2014-03-07
(14) http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2014/02/leopoldo-lopez-hes-not-messiah-hes-very.html
(15) http://www.mineriaaldia.com/gobierno-blinda-proyectos-termoelectricos-en-zonas-licitadas-no-habra-consulta-
indigena/
(16) http://www.rpp.com.pe/2014-03-07-roque-benavides-conga-aun-es-rentable-pese-a-caida-del-oro-y-cobre-
noticia_675140.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
(17) http://elcomercio.pe/peru/cajamarca/conga-antimineros-queman-camioneta-proveedor-noticia-1714524
(18) http://www.pachamamaradio.org/07-03-2014/cinco-mil-mineros-de-puno-amenazan-con-tomar-la-ciudad-de-
lima.html
(19) http://www.semana.com//nacion/articulo/mineria-gobierno-debera-consultar-regiones/379631-3
(20) http://www.elnuevosiglo.com.co/articulos/3-2014-locomotora-minera-ya-no-tiene-obst%C3%A1culos-acosta.html
(21) http://www.mineriaaldia.com/santa-cruz-empresas-mineras-confirmaron-
inversiones/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook
(22) http://www.entornointeligente.com/articulo/2152963/El-Gobierno-concibe-la-mineria-como-una-fuente-de-
desarrollo-
(23) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/strait-provides-status-alicia-property-213623351.html
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2013
Closed in 2013 closed close price
USA Graphite USGT feb'13 U$0.93 08-jan-13 U$0.17 81.7% short tgt made/trade closed
Lachlan Star LSA.to feb'13 C$1.50 30-sep-12 C$0.95 -36.7% sold to reduce port risk
United Silver USC.to mar'13 C$0.21 28-oct-12 C$0.095 -54.8% small Ag sector trade, failed
Aurcana Corp AUN.v apr'13 C$1.07 11-nov-12 C$0.55 -48.6% closed on poor YE results
Gold Res Corp GORO apr'13 U$14.11 25-jan-13 U$9.38 33.5% short tgt made/trade closed
Marlin Gold MLN.v apr'13 C$0.075 10-feb-13 C$0.065 -13.3% closed trade
Bear Creek BCM.v may'13 C$2.58 01-apr-13 C$2.40 -7.0% near-term, time ran out
Lupaka Gold LPK.to may'13 C$1.12 23-oct-11 C$0.32 -71.4% towel thrown in
Tahoe Resources TAHO may'13 U$18.62 08-apr-13 U$14.70 21.1% took profit on ST short
OceanaGold OGC.to jun'13 C$3.03 16-sep-12 C$1.18 -61.1% sold on gold drop
IMPACT Silver IPT.v jun'13 C$1.14 13-jan-13 C$0.62 -45.6% sold on silver drop
Duran Ventures DRV.v jun'13 C$0.045 10-may-13 C$0.025 -44.4% ST trade never worked
Plata Latina PLA.v jun'13 C$0.79 10-apr-12 C$0.13 -83.5% closed
Bellhaven BHV.v jun'13 C$0.065 03-jun-13 C$0.12 84.6% closed ST trade
B2Gold BTO.to aug'13 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.44 12.1% sold 1/2 to raise cash
Colossus Min. CSI.to aug'13 C$0.72 24-jul-13 C$0.79 9.7% closed thru nerves on future
Pretium Res PVG.to aug'13 C$8.20 11-jun-13 C$10.14 23.7% closed to raise cash
Bear Creek BCM.v sep'13 C$2.06 30-may-13 C$2.20 6.8% sold on pol risk decision
MAG Silver MVG oct'13 U$7.00 12-sep-13 U$5.62 19.6% near-term short
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'13 U$9.52 03-may-13 U$4.98 47.7% short tgt made, covered
AQM Copper AQM.v oct'13 C$0.31 16-oct-11 C$0.125 -59.7% closed failed trade
First Majestic AG nov'13 U$11.51 07-nov-13 U$10.50 8.8% v near term short, closed
Fortuna Silver FSM nov'13 U$4.00 07-nov-13 U$3.68 8.0% v near term short, closed
Primero PPP nov'13 U$5.70 07-nov-13 U$5.75 -0.9% v near term short, closed
Starcore Intl SAM.to nov'13 C$0.235 08-sep-13 C$0.17 -27.7% ST trade didn't work sm loss
B2Gold BTO.to dec'13 C$2.22 28-nov-12 C$2.16 -2.7% closed ST trade to raise cash
23

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2012
Closed in 2012 closed close PPS
Soltoro SOL.v jan'12 C$0.87 07-nov-11 C$0.94 8.0% cash moved to BCM.v
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to feb'12 C$0.84 13-oct-10 C$0.98 16.7% trade closed on ELG.v offer
Minefinders MFN feb'12 U$11.68 17-nov-11 U$14.80 26.7% target made, trade closed
Iron Creek IRN.v mar'12 C$0.58 26-sep-10 C$0.31 -46.6% time up on small bad trade
U.S. Silver USA.to apr'12 C$2.18 15-mar-12 C$1.86 -14.7% ST trade no good, cut loss
Augusta Res. AZC.to may'12 C$3.10 29-jan-12 C$2.07 -33.2% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Bellhaven BHV.v may'12 C$0.50 22-sep-10 C$0.28 -44.0% new mgmt not impressive
Zincore Metals ZNC.to may'12 C$0.325 29-jul-11 C$0.17 -47.7% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Soltoro SOL.v may'12 C$0.70 18-mar-11 C$0.41 -41.4% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
U.S. Silver USA.to aug'12 C$1.78 27-jul-12 C$1.36 -23.6% fail ST trade close pre split
Estrella Gold EST.v aug'12 C$0.91 27-mar-11 C$0.14 -84.6% Closed on port realignment
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'12 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.32 397.2% sell call $6.17/ Mar25
Strait Minerals SRD.v oct'12 C$0.125 09-dec-11 C$0.12 -4.0% closing coverage til FY13
Sunward Res SWD.to oct'12 C$1.47 13-mar-11 C$1.21 -17.7% sold, took loss
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'12 U$21.47 09-sep-12 U$17.40 19.0% Short trade closed
Yellowhead Min. YMI.to nov'12 C$1.00 01-apr-12 C$0.63 -37.0% sold, took loss
Primero Mining PPP nov'12 U$7.26 07-oct-12 U$6.73 7.3% Short trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v nov'12 C$3.38 07-nov-11 C$3.72 10.1% Took small profit
Vena Resources VEM.to dec'12 C$0.70 31-may-09 C$0.18 -74.3% Failed trade (caps F)
Galway Res GWY.v dec'12 C$2.19 24-nov-12 C$2.30 5.0% closed good ST arb trade
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2011
Closed in 2011 closed close PPS
Sunward Res SWD.v jan'11 C$1.05 21-nov-10 C$1.63 55.2% target made, trade closed
Serengeti Res SIR.v mar'11 C$0.245 05-dec-10 C$0.285 16.3% sold pre-tgt, ST trade fail
Fronteer Gold FRG apr'11 U$2.37 03-may-09 U$15.24 543.0% buyout, trade closed
Minefinders MFN apr'11 U$9.09 07-nov-10 U$16.89 85.8% target made, trade closed
Metalline Min. MMG may'11 U$1.04 26-jan-11 U$0.89 -14.4% exit, resource disappointed
Peregrine Met PGM.to jul'11 C$0.87 06-mar-11 C$2.60 198.9% buyout offer, closed
Dynasty Metals DMM.to jul'11 C$4.20 03-may-09 C$2.85 -32.1% Sold. Fail. Move on.
Aura Silver AUU.v aug'11 C$0.22 13-oct-10 C$0.16 -36.4% Bad pick. Take loss
U.S. Silver USA.v aug'11 C$0.52 26-jan-11 C$0.71 36.5% closed to make room
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'11 C$2.80 12-may-11 C$4.27 52.5% target made, trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v sep'11 C$3.80 27-may-11 C$4.17 9.7% macro sell call victim
Minefinders MFN sep'11 U$14.70 10-aug-11 U$15.15 3.1% macro sell call victim
Great Panther GPR.to sep'11 C$3.03 22-aug-11 C$2.64 -12.9% macro sell call victim
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'11 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.36 400.9% sold 20%, macro sell call
Focus Ventures FCV.v nov'11 C$0.40 20-apr-10 C$0.20 -50.0% cut losses, bad trade
Regulus Res. REG.v dec'11 C$1.17 14-aug-11 C$0.52 -55.6% cut on news of poor 43-101
2009 and 2010 closed positions in appendices below
24

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2010
Closed in 2010 closed close PPS
B2Gold Corp BTO.to Jan'10 C$0.88 08-nov-09 C$1.49 68.2% target made, trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v Jan'10 C$0.18 23-aug-09 C$0.40 122.2% target made, trade closed
MAG Silver MVG mar'10 U$5.60 23-nov-09 U$7.28 30.0% closed in pdac week
Riverside Res RRI.v mar'10 C$0.435 20-sep-09 C$0.60 37.9% closed in pdac week
Amarillo Gold AGC.v mar'10 C$0.81 31-may-09 C$0.70 -13.6% closed in pdac week
B2Gold Corp BTO.to apr'10 C$1.24 18-feb-10 C$1.50 21.0% target made, trade closed
Lumina Copper LCC.v apr'10 C$0.84 14-jun-09 C$1.55 51.2% total position now sold
Troy Resources TRY.to may'10 C$1.10 03-may-09 C$2.25 104.5% sold on negative results
AuEx Ventures XAU.to may'10 C$2.51 24-may-09 C$3.38 34.7% trade closed
Nevada Copper NCU.to jun'10 C$3.27 14-mar-10 C$2.03 -37.9% need to lower Cu exposure
Carpathian Gold CPN.to jun'10 C$0.39 14-mar-10 C$0.35 -10.3% too exposed to cap raising
Amerix PM Corp APM.v jun'10 C$0.065 08-nov-09 C$0.05 -23.1% victim of macro bear
Antares Minerals ANM.v jun'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$2.10 47.9% sold half
Vena Resources VEM.to jun'10 C$0.37 31-may-09 C$0.23 -37.8% sold half
Minera Andes MAI.to sep'10 C$0.75 28-jul-10 C$0.95 26.7% ST trade closed
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to sep'10 C$0.52 01-aug-10 C$0.75 44.2% target made, trade closed
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'10 C$1.45 25-may-10 C$2.01 34.5% target made, trade closed
Blue Sky Uran BSK.v oct'10 C$0.41 19-may-10 C$0.22 -46.3% v small v bad trade closed
Dia Bras Expl DIB.v oct'10 C$0.14 30-aug-09 C$0.35 150.0% target made, trade closed
S. Amer. Silver SAC.to nov'10 C$1.38 24-oct-10 C$1.60 -15.9% loss on short, small fail
Ventana Gold VEN.to nov'10 C$7.92 27-jun-10 C$13.51 70.6% trade closed on buyout
Lumina Copper LCC.v nov'10 C$1.42 11-aug-10 C$3.65 157.0% trade closed
Antares Minerals ANM.v dec'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$8.40 491.5% trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.v dec'10 C$0.69 23-mar-10 C$2.16 213.0% trade closed
Coro Mining COP.to dec'10 C$0.585 03-oct-10 C$1.24 112.0% target made, trade closed
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2009
Closed positions closed closing PPS
Cardero Res CDY/CDU.to May'09 U$1.20 03-May-09 U$0.87 -27.5% sold on negative news
Eastmain Res. ER.to May'09 C$1.04 06-May-09 C$1.315 26.4% trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v May'09 C$0.165 03-May-09 C$0.235 42.4% trade closed
Latin Amer Min. LAT.v May'09 C$0.12 03-May-09 C$0.158 29.2% trade closed
Aquiline Res. AQI.to July'09 C$2.03 16-Jun-09 C$1.68 -17.2% took loss, bad timing
Chariot Resources CHD.to Aug'09 C$0.20 12-Jul-09 C$0.415 107.5% trade closed
Castle Gold CSG.v Sep'09 C$0.64 02-Aug-09 C$0.60 -6.3% ST trade didn't work out
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to Sep'09 C$2.30 12-May-09 C$4.50 95.7% profit taken
Los Andes Copper LA.v Sep'09 C$0.09 21-Jun-09 C$0.09 0% trade closed
Pediment Gold PEZ.to Oct'09 C$0.80 09-Aug-09 C$1.00 25.0% trade closed
Minera Andes MAI.to Oct'09 C$0.68 03-May-09 C$0.71 4.4% too much bad news
Dynasty Metals DMM.to Nov'09 C$4.18 03-May-09 C$6.01 43.8% half sold
Rusoro Mining RML.v Nov'09 C$0.55 03-May-09 C$0.57 3.6% underperformed
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
25