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The IKN Weekly
Week 250, February 23rd 2014
Contents
This Week: More thoughts on the gold market.
Fundamental Analysis: NOBS report on True Gold Mining (TGM.v).
Stocks to Follow: Overview, Minera IRL (IRL.to) (MIRL.L), Eco Oro (EOM.to), Santacruz Silver
(SCZ.v), Pretium Resources (PVG.to) (PVG), Focus Ventures (FCV.v), Dalradian Resources
(DNA.to), B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG), Coro Mining (COP.to).
Copper Basket: Overview, Reservoir Minerals (RMC.v), Oracle Mining (OMN.to).
Low Cost Producer Basket: Overview, Pan American (PAAS) and Newmont (NEM).
Regional Politics: Colombia: The páramo de Santurbán decision to be made public in March,
Colombia: Protesters block access to the AngloGold Ashanti La Colosa mine.
Market Watching: The week before Peedac, More seriously.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
More thoughts on the gold market
Once again, this subject isn’t part of the normal brief of The IKN Weekly but as the whole
edifice is now firmly in the hands of the
moves in the price of gold I’m going to
spend a little time on what I’ve been
seeing in the gold market, why “This
Time Is Different” (as per last week’s bull
call), why new money is moving into our
preferred sector (unlike any moment you
care to mention during the false dawns
of 2013) and why it’s time to be and stay
bullish on the miners.
We start here, with this two week chart
that tracks the ETF proxies of gold (GLD)
silver (SLV) the precious metals miners
(GDX) and the juniors (GDXJ) is shown
today in order to point out a three
things:
• The big move up came on Thursday/Friday of the previous week. Natch.
• Last week, the sector successfully consolidated that move. Again, scan the chart below
for more than five seconds and the eyes have it.
• The action was made even healthier by the Wednesday weakness that accelerated and
became a meaningful downspike into the close that day. Plenty of nerves were washed
1

through the market (note how GDXJ moved down 7% on a gold price move that wasn’t
much more than U$10/oz start to finish), but once it was done buyers were quick and
happy to move back in, snapping up the bargains.
In short, what we witnessed last week was textbook consolidation of an important move. In this
specific case, the important move was gold’s breakout from ~$1,280/oz to ~$1,320/oz (as
noted last week), which was followed in fine style by the speculative indices that take their cues
from the mother metal. Those that would see the squiggly lines fall had their opportunity,
confident buyers returned and outgunned the bears.
As mentioned last week, this is NOT a drill and this time it IS different. New money is flowing
into the sector and the higher quality companies are already benefitting from the loosened
purse strings. Stocks are higher because key driver gold is moving higher, and gold is higher
because this isn’t a speculative move on the future popularity of the metal, but a demand-
driven move that is responding to its current popularity That is very different and here comes
your evidence: For the first time since GLD holdings peaked in December 2012, there has been
a steady increase in the amount of gold held by
the main traded bullion ETF. And like it or not GLD: Tonnes of gold held by ETF
that matters to us today, because whether you 810
consider GLD “real gold” or “paper gold” it is and
805
will remain the cutting edge of the gold trade
business (as opposed to the longer-term 800
investment/hoarding cycle).
795
As this chart shows (and please note the cut 790
down Y-axis; not trying to fool you all, just want 785
to show the changes more clearly), we’re still a
780
long journey away from the 1,350+ tonnes that
GLD had under its wing in late 2012, but the
trend of 2013 of constant and consistent down
has now altered.
To give an idea of the cash involved here, aside fractions there are 32,150 troy ounces in one
metric tonne. So if we round out and say GLD has added ten tonnes of physical gold to its
holdings in the last five weeks (in fact it’s slightly more) then call gold at an average of
U$1,300/oz. It means GLD has added U$418m in real gold (hey hey, headsup, not its headline
market cap price but its real gold holdings) in the period. In the great scheme of world financial
flows it’s still pretty small beer, but 1) it’s a start 2) the trend is broken and is now positive 3)
the West (whatever that moniker really means) has finally started to do the same as the East
(i.e. China plus friends) and is adding to its gold holdings. The well-documented flow of bullion
from West to East in the latter part of 2013 isn’t the only game in town any longer.
Gold is the baseline upon which we speculate via mining stocks, with our choice of subject the
particularly volatile juniors. Early 2014 is offering up a fine speculative opportunity because
unlike any moment in 2013 the foundations of gold price are solid, not built on the same
speculation. Last week’s market showed the type of strength you’d want from the early stages
of a bullish trend and even if gold doesn’t immediately shoot off into the stratosphere (for the
record, I’d be happy enough with $1,320/oz or about for the next few weeks) the better quality
mining companies i.e. profitable producers or those with peer-approved development
properties, will benefit as confidence in the sector increases. My call to you is to own RIO.to,
but feel free to go your own way and pick your own preferred quality junior.
2
2-naj 6-naj 8-naj 01-naj 41-naj 61-naj 12-naj 32-naj 72-naj 92-naj 13-naj 40-bef 60-bef 01-bef 21-bef 41-bef 91-bef 12-bef
source: company filings
dlog
sennot
cirtem

Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
This week we run an analysis on True Gold Mining (TGM.v):
NOBS fundamental report dated February 23rd 2014
True Gold Mining Inc. (TGM.v)
Company Overview
True Gold Mining Inc. (Canada: TGM.v, USA: RVREF, Frankfurt 3RV.f) is an exploration stage
junior mining company operating in Burkina Faso, Central/West Africa. Its flagship is the Karma
gold mine project, in said country. Current (estimated) share structure is as follows:
Shares out:397.55m
Options: 21.58m
Warrants: 64.93m
Fully diluted shares: 484.06m
Current share price: $0.395
Market Cap: $157.03m
Approx cash per S/O: $0.19
All prices are in Canadian dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.90=CAD$1
Overview
The trading theory behind the position taken in TGM a few weeks ago was that of “buy the
bought deal, wait for the deal to close, ride the post-deal pop, sell”, but unlike many others in
the same boat at the moment (DNA, LYD, LGC, others), your author’s chosen charge has seen
its share price stay pancake flat during and now after its financing period.
I’m aware that people whose work and opinions I trust like the TGM Karma project and for the
purposes of my buy a few weeks ago, that and no more than a few minutes of scanning the
numbers was enough (a near-term fliptrade IS different). However, its flat performance was not
part of the plan, so although it wasn’t ever going to be a deeply examined position, at least
some work was overdue on the stock. What follows is the result of the work and it’s being
shared because it’s one of those “the more I looked, the more I liked” stories. The result is that I
may have begun with a modest and near-term plan for this position, but after due consideration
things have changed. Read on for the why.
Management and holdings
The recent round of financing saw most of the main holders of the company top up. The biggest
shareholder of TGM is mining investment fund Liberty Metals & Mining Holdings LLC which
holds 77.5m shares, or 19.9% of shares outstanding. Next, major Canadian miner Teck has a
touch over 45.5m shares, around 11.5% of shares out. Management members hold a few
hundred thousand here or 2m there, with the insider major exception being company executive
chair and main driver Mark O’Dea (of Fronteer fame, among other success stories) who owns
just under 9.6m shares, or 2.4% of the total number of shares outstanding. Along with the
approximate 15% held by other instos, major holders lock up nearly 50% of the shares out in
TGM and although that might not be a massive amount of skin in the game at managerial level
(~5% of S/O, with a fair chunk of the options/warrants on top) there’s a goodly amount of
insto/major interest to keep the team on their toes.
3

President and CEO is one Dwayne Melrose (O’Dea isn’t doing the day-to-day running on this
one), who has a geologists’ background but isn’t stuck in the world of theoretical rockbanging
only. His CV includes 21 years at the Kumtor mine (now owned by Centerra) and saw it develop
from early stages through resource expansion and then into operation. He then moved to Minco
where he was in charge of developing mines cross-company. It’s a good background and he
has ample experience for what’s needed at TGM today.
Financials overview
This company is one of the most straightforward financially you could imagine, but there are a
couple of specific things we need to highlight from
our usual suspect charts. $m TGM: Expenses other exp.
stock comp
3 prof fees
salaries
This time we’ll start with the P+L, only because 2.5
there’s very little to say about a standard and non-
2
worrisome situation. Here are the general (i.e. non-
1.5
direct exploration) expenses which hover around
the $2m/qtr mark. Reasonable. 1
0.5
Below right is the only other chart from this section
0
today, net losses which since 3q13 have included
1q13 2q13 3q13 4q13est 1q14est
exploration and evaluation as a line item (instead of source: company filings
it being simply noted in the cash flows and then
capitalized). There’s not much of an advantage to 16 TGM: Net Loss, per qtr
either method at this stage of a small mining 14
company’s life, but at least the new way shows just 12
how much the real net loss in cash terms is to the 10
company each month. Anyway, the numbers are 8
moderate and treasury easily covers the latest 6
quarters and those before the build-out starts. 4
2
We move to the balance sheet and here come 0
things we care about a little more. Assets look like
this, with special attention needed for the “short
term investment” section of the columns. The recent
round of financing added $51-9m (gross proceeds) to the structure and we expect most of that
to be put into interest-bearing accounts for the time being, while the 3q13 write down of assets
(sky blue) wasn’t much more than good housekeeping in the face of the gold price drop and
didn’t affect the development of its property or the company’s standing in the market (it was
priced in already).
Liabilities are of minor concern here. TGM carries near-term account liabilities of a little over
$2m, which is normal. At some point in 2014 we can expect some financial debt to be added
when the final financing package is arranged for Karma construction, see below in “Valuing
TGM” for more on that-
4
31q1 31q2 31q3 tse31q4 tse41q1
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
TGM: Assets Breakdown per qtr
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 tse31q4 tse41q1
source: company filings, IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
$m TGM: Liabilities position
LT debt
10
ST inv 9 current debt
fixed
8
other current
cash 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
4q12 1q13 2q13 3q13 4q13est 1q14est
source: company filings

And so to working capital, in which we see just what the latest round of financing has done for
the company. We expect TGM to round off 1q14 with a very healthy $60m (and change) in
working capital, which compares to the capex ticket price of $131.5m for Karma as announced
in the very recent feas (which includes contingency and working capital needs). Quickmath and
quarterly burn between now and the construction decision (expected 2q14) points to a company
that already has around $50m of the cash it will need to build its mine, so between TGM and
Karma the mine is around $80m in capital shortfall.
80 TGM: Working Capital per qtr
On this score, the current warrants
position could provide up to $30m in 70
funds assuming that TGM starts 60
trading above the 47c strike, as we’d
50
expect plenty of the large
40 stakeholders (Liberty Teck etc who
bought into the latest financing round) 30
would have no problem in converting
20
their derivatives position into paid-up
10
shares. As for the rest TGM has
already indicated that it would look to 0
finance its build-out via a combo of
debt and equity, but as we’re not that
far from the total (and depending on
how those warrants get on...by the
way, they’re tradeable for those of you who really like the adrenaline rush). More thoughts on
how TGM could eventually set up financing below
And now, to shares outstanding. The way in which TGM went to market, added an extra layer,
full overallotment taken and all that means the count has shot up to nearly 400 million shares
out, which brings me to the potential reason as to why TGM hasn’t moved in the way I was
expecting it to move. That’s a lot of paper for any market, but especially for a Canadian listed
company because over there its participants
have a particular aversion to swimmingpool
dilution of companies. Take the Australian
market for example and people aren’t so
worried about seeing their juniors with half a
billion (or more) shares out, but Canada’s
capital markets seem to automatically
connect large dilutions with corporate
failure.
They may of course have a point, because
financing (cid:1) rollback (cid:1) goes nowhere (cid:1)
rollback (cid:1) financing (etc) is a well-trodden
path amongst the bullshit end of the Venture
exchange. Me, I’m not so worried about this
aspect of TGM because 1) I always care for
market cap more than shares out and 2) all signs are that TGM is just one modest raising away
from getting its producing mine and what we saw this month was the big share count move, no
more major dilutive moves expected. However, I do recognize that TGM’s large count may have
affected its potential to bounce back quickly from those who spend less than a minute deciding
whether to sponsor a company or not (i.e. 90% of fund managers who tend to be too busy with
their choice of lunchtime restaurant and quite right too, guys; priorities are priorities after all).
Company assets
True Gold in its current corporate guise is a fairly new entity, having been re-named (from
Riverstone Resources) at the beginning of 2013. Under its previous corporate name it was still
the owner of the Karma project (and minor Liguidi project, also in Burkina Faso), its 100%
ownership subject to some specific though relatively small NSRs on parts of the concession
held by previous owners, plus a sliding scale 3% to 5% government royalty. However, the
development of Karma has accelerated notably since Riverstone became TGM and due to this,
5
21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 tse31q4 tse41q1
source company filings, IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
400 TGM: Shares Out
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
)21naj(11q4 )rpa(21q1 )luj(21q2 )tco(21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 tse31q4 tse41q1
source: company filings, IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim

our analysis will concentrate on financials to 2013 only (plus future quarters and eventual target
projections).
1) Liguidi: This is the company’s second-strong project and is billed as “One of the largest gold
anomalies in Burkina Faso” in its limited literature. Last year saw the company run mainly
baseline exploration on the site, though RC drilling also returned some decent hits such as 5.81
g/t Au over 4.0 metres. It’s a prospective concession, but for our purposes today is not a part of
our valuation or asset value considerations. That’s because TGM will succeed or fail on the
back of Karma.
2) Karma: The TGM flagship and our object of attention today. Karma is an advanced-stage
exploration project in Burkina Faso, which boasts decent resource size and plenty of potential
for eventual exploration upside, but more importantly a recently published feasibility study (FS)
that shows strong economics and, importantly, all major permits already in place. It’s planned as
a straightforward and classic open pit/heap leach/cyanide solution/carbon leach recovery mine.
Although it will source its mineral from five separate sites on the project during the mine plan
life, its set up at least in the first years of production and other characteristics (such as rock
friability, low reagent consumption, fast leach kinetics) reminds your author a lot of the La Arena
mine run by Rio Alto (RIO.to) in Peru (which we know pretty well round these pages). TGM
plans to make a construction decision on Karma in the near future and may be in operation as
early as 2015.
Here’s the current resource count, as summed up by one of the many tables in the recently
published 43-101 compliant FS:
g/t Au Oz Gold
A few notes on the above:
1) At first glance, the cut-off (starting at 0.2 g/t Au for the oxide material) looks quite low,
but on examination of the economics (below) it makes sense, as Karma has all the
hallmarks of a low cost operation. Along with the relative cheap capex ticket price, TGM
can afford to run a low cut-off here without being accused of exaggerating its resource.
2) A lot of the resource is held in sulphide material, both in the indicated and the inferred
categories. This part is interesting because the FS mine plan calls for an 8.5 year mine
life that uses nearly exclusively either oxide or transition material, thus leaving the
sulphide resource for a potential second stage as yet undefined. In fact, TGM plans to
use just 1.8 million tonnes (mt) of sulphide rock in its 8.5 year mine life operation that
will process a total of 33.2mt, with most of that being the easiest to access and
economically strongest oxide material. This implies that there’s a strong potential for
eventual mine life upside at Karma, via a stage two sulphide operation with around 2m
oz gold in already identified supply.
3) The average grade of the 8.5 year mine plan is 0.89 g/t gold and the expected recovery
percentages over life of mine (LoM) is 87%. However, years one to five of the plan
show better grades and recoveries, which will make for stronger production and quick
capital payback in the first years.
The mine plan that TGM has developed to put on top of this deposit is explained in fine detail in
the 43-101 FS (it’s a good one, by the way) and revolves around a standard technology heap
leach that would run at an average of 4m tonnes per year (call it 11k tonnes per day). The
overriding impression on the production facility is that of simplicity, it’s a straightforward plan,
the rock is easy to mine and process, the equipment needed isn’t much more than off-the-peg
6

mine engineering. We like simple when it comes to mining for gold, we like it a lot.
And thusly, one short paragraph gets to sum up a highly detailed 371 page feasibility study.
Pathetic I know, but in this report we’re going to keep things concise (for a darned change) and
move straight on to a valuation for the company.
Valuing TGM
True Gold Mining is all about Karma, so to get a target price for its stock we need to look at
what this gold project is capable of doing. These days that’s all about profit margins, so here we
go with out spreadsheet model of the revenues and earnings potential of the stock. But before
diving in , please note that your author’s valuation of TGM will be gauged on its performance in
the first five years of its 8.5 year mine life. Yes we could go the current LoM feas parameters,
but the chances that this will be the only production plan for the Karma property are between
slim and none. Karma and its underlying large sulphide resource will surely get a stage two
operation once the oxide/transition mine is underway and the performance of its first years will
be the determining factor for eventual expansion. I’m aware that concentrating on the better
years of this mine plan may paint an overly rosy picture compared to the official published
documents, but after due consideration this way seems more realistic to get a true handle on
company valuations.
Ok, so here’s our list of assumptions:
• We assume a model year of years 1-5, which averages out throughputs, grades,
operating costs and expected percentage recoveries of gold. Details of yearly
production forecasts are available in that (very thorough) FS, get your copy over at
SEDAR. To that end, here are out model parameters:
• Throughout of 11,000 tonnes per day
• Average gold grade of 1.02 g/t Au (I may well be lowballing and it comes in at 1.05 to
1.08)
• Gold recoveries of 90% (again, this figure may be low and it eventually results in a 92%
average)
• Direct operating cash costs (as per the company definition of “mining costs, processing
costs, on-site G&A”) of U$530/oz. This is lower than the TGM LoM forecast of $591/oz,
the difference coming from the higher production expected in years 1-5
• Royalties as per current Burkina Faso laws (we assume a global 5% deduction)
• Other minor items
If therefore put this first set of assumptions into table form and apply four different average gold
prices to the mix, this is what we get:
TGM Karma: Production Estimates for median year 1-5
gold price $1,200/oz Au $1,300/oz Au $1,400/oz Au $1,500/oz Au
thruput tonnage (m) 4.015 4.015 4.015 4.015
Au prod. Oz 118,514 118,514 118,514 118,514
Direct cash op. costs U$/oz 530 530 530 530
operating income ($m) 65.5 76.2 86.9 97.6
source: IKN estimates
To expand and get to a net profit assumption, we do the following
• Shares out total of 480m on production day one and a $50m debt financing facility. By
taking the $131.5m capex cost and subtracting the working capital expected at end
2q14 (a touch over $50m), it means we have $80m to find in order to build the mine.
Therefore, we build in $30 of share equity financing which could either come from the
existing warrants or may come from a new round of placement, plus a $50m debt facility
(as anything smaller probably wouldn’t be of much interest to the banking types). In fact,
raising capital for this mine is likely to be either straightforward (thanks to the Mark
O’Dea track record of success and the sparkling Rolodex he has by now) or
7

unnecessary (TGM/Karma gets bought out by people with the cash to build and again,
O’Dea’s record of successful M&A is clear) and the process of getting the capex
together isn’t one that worries me. It’s a question of how the chips might fall and the
combo decided upon is my idea of a best guess, as long as we assume that TGM gets
to keep and operate the asset.
• Due to the debt facility, we assume interest servicing over the five years of $5m/annum,
which is probably higher than reality but builds in some cushion
• Depreciation estimated at $8m/annum. A rounded guess.
• G&A set slightly higher than the company’s own forecasts in the FS (some 10% higher,
in fact)
• Corporate tax at 20%, as Burkina Faso offers mining companies this lower rate in order
to make the country more attractive to foreign investment.
• Sustaining capital of $2m/annum, which may be low over LoM but shouldn’t be far away
for years 1-5. Again, we’d expect further capital development later on at Karma
• CAD$1 = U$0.90, as per the current forex
• Other minor adjustments
And here’s how the condensed income items table works for our four different gold price
assumptions:
TGM.v: Income items for model year (1-5) using 1.02 g/t Au, 90% recovery
At 10,000tpd thruput $1,200/oz Au $1,300/oz Au $1,400/oz Au $1,500/oz Au
Sales (U$m) 135.1 146.4 157.6 168.9
Cash COGS 48.2 48.2 48.2 48.2
Depreciation 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
GA 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7
Op income 65.5 76.2 86.9 97.6
Interest 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Workers Part. 2.6 3.0 3.5 3.9
Tax 11.6 13.6 15.7 17.7
Net income 46.3 54.5 62.7 71.0
Shares out (m) 480 480 480 480
EPS 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.15
Capex -2 -2 -2 -2
FCF/sh 0.11 0.13 0.14 0.16
Source: IKN ests
We choose U$1,300/oz as baseline, but it’s notable that even at U$1,200/oz Karma works really
well and throws off very decent net profits (thanks to that low cash cost profile). We also see
that even with the big fat share count getting bigger, and 11c annual EPS is no small beer when
the stock in question is trading under 40c right now. On that subject, here’s how we set the price
target for TGM:
TGM: Sales and earnings Target price & valuation data at various gold prices
Gold Price $1200 $1300 $1400 $1500 using four different gold prices
Sales (C$m) 135 146 158 169 12-month target $0.75 (on 6x annual EPS using
Upside to target 90% gold at U$1300/oz)
EPS 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.15 Mkt cap (C$m) $157 Enterprise value $98
Cash flow 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.16 P/sales ($1200) 1.07 EV/sales ($1200) 0.67
P/E ($1200) 4.1 EV/EBITDA ($1200) 1.3
P/E ($1300) 3.5 EV/EBITDA ($1300) 1.2
P/E ($1400) 3.0 EV/EBITDA ($1400) 1.0
The 12 month target using $1,300/oz gold comes to 75c pr share and works on a 6X PE
multiple, which takes into account that at this time next year TGM at Karma will still be building
8

a mine, rather than having a working operation. Once operational and showing the type of
strong moneymaking performance we expect, TGM should be able to command a higher
multiple to 6X but all the same, we’re still offered a 75c price target and upside potential of 90%
to Friday’s closing price. That’s good. However, before reaching a conclusion we need to
consider the major incognito of the TGM story (apart from where the gold price is going to be
come the day, of course), that of political risk:
Political risk in Burkina Faso
We broach this subject by bringing in world travel advisories for the country and this map (1)
supplied by the United Kingdom government is about the best visual aid I came across while
trawling the web.
For your information, Karma is located North of the capital Ouagadougou and just to the right of
the city of Gourcy, i.e. well inside the red “advise against all travel” zone. As for official advise,
the UK government on that page gives the diplo-speak version of “keep calm and carry on”, or if
you prefer here’s the relevant Australian government site, also typical of others (including the
French who know more about the country than most):
The government of Burkina Faso has warned that terrorist and criminal groups
continue to express a desire to attempt to kidnap Westerners in the areas bordering
Mali and Niger. See the Terrorism section below for more information.
The straight dope: Political risk for TGM.v at Karma is a weakness in my analysis, period. If you
like, go with the official company line of “well it isn’t British Columbia, but it’s workable enough”
which then quickly shifts gears to extol the strong and friendly working relationship between
company and national government, a typical case of steering the conversation to more solid
ground (one I see a lot when Peru community relations is discussed with junior management
teams and is always a bit of a red flag in my book).
But the truth is that I’m not comfortable with the Burkina Faso pol risk and that’s as much due to
my own ignorance than anything else. I’m aware that government agencies overplay safety
concerns in order to cover their own hides, I’m aware that companies will smoothtalk their way
around sticky subjects of this ilk, I’ve exchanged with several people with first hand experience
of the country in the last couple of weeks who tell me “better than many other places in Africa”,
which sounds fair enough. But the fact remains that I’m not personally knowledgeable enough
about Burkina to be able to make a confident call. Ask me about Bolivia, corners of Colombia,
Argentina and its patchwork and you’ll get an opinion from me (whether you like it or not) but a
landlocked African country? Sorry, the closest I’ve ever been is a short stay in Morocco. This is
always going to be a problem for me, however long I decide to hold my TGM position and
however many other opinions I gather from the outside world on Burkina and/or the immediate
environs of Karma. As for you the reader, consider it a weakness in my analysis that affects the
way I approach this investment.
9

Discussion and conclusion
If you go by the total in-situ gold count of around 3.3m oz gold (including the sulphides and the
inferred counts) and today’s market cap of $157m (or EV of ~$100m if you prefer), TGM looks
cheap as a takeover target at U$50/oz (or $33/oz EV). If you consider that the structure needs
no more than $80m in cash and 18 months of time added to it in order to create a working mine
that would throw off $54.5m in net profits per annum over the first five years, its financials also
look very robust. And then if you consider that even with today’s reduced $1.3k gold price, the
current mine plan would be more than enough (perhaps double the needed cash) to fund a
stage two sulphide operation to take advantage of the two million ounces or so that have
already been identified at Karma, there’s a great long-term opportunity here. Or put simply,
Karma today is an obvious takeover target for the type of mining company that knows it African
countries, is looking to expand quickly (using other people’s money) and has the risk profile that
wouldn’t be diluted by the unknowns and doubts of Burkina Faso. In other words, Endeavour
Mining (EDV.to) could step up and offer paper for TGM.v tomorrow morning and I would bat an
eyelid in surprise.
But even if TGM doesn’t find itself bought out by a larger player, it has a very decent prospect
on its hands which offers a simple, straightforward construction and mining process, plus very
robust economics at today’s gold prices (or even lower). Aside from the price of gold, the doubt
here has to be its country risk and that’s one which could be utterly benign from start to finish of
the company, may increase over time or may suddenly fare up out of nowhere. On that score I
must plead ignorance (bar the type of background reading that anyone in the 21st century can
do online). The upshot is that TGM isn’t a stock without risk, but then again we’re staring down
the barrel of a potential 90% gain in 12 months on reasonably conservative financial
parameters, so that somewhat elevated risk comes with plenty of potential reward. That’s the
balance we want form a junior after all, isn’t it?
When I opened the position a few weeks ago, the idea was to trade a niche in the financing
markets that had opened up. Things went well for stocks such as DNA.to on this score, but as
TGM hasn’t reacted in the appropriate manner it was time to take a look and wonder why. The
result of this slightly deeper analysis is that a better opportunity has been spotted, because it
looks like people are being put off of the obvious potential of this company because they think
its share structure is now overly diluted. I disagree, mainly because we’re not far from the end of
the capex raising process now but also because share count and share price are minor factors
compared to the real numbers, those of market cap and earnings potential.
TGM may end up being bought out (EDV or other) but even if not, this is a stock price that
screams value at today’s levels.
Management with a track record of success,
great looking small gold asset, mine life and
resource expansion obvious and not yet
baked into the share price, timeline to
production relatively short. The IKN Weekly
calls buy on True Gold Mining Inc (TGM.v)
and sets a 12 month price target of 67.5c on
the stock, derived from the nominal 75c
financials target and adjusted downwards by
10% to take into account the higher political
risk profile of the geographical location. Out
target represents a 70.9% upside to Friday’s
close of 39.5c. This is no longer a flip-and-
sell stock, it’s one I’m willing to hold onto and
watch appreciate throughout 2014.
End of Report
10

Stocks to Follow
Last week five of our 13 open positions registered weekly gains (BTO.to, LRA.v, EOM.to, SCZ.v,
PVG short), two stayed unchanged (GORO short, DAR.v) and six lost ground (RIO.to, IRL.to,
DNA.to, COP.to, TGM.v, FCV.v). Most of the moves were small ones in either direction, the
exceptions being the re-traces seen in Coro Mining (COP.to down 17.6%) and Focus Ventures
(FCV.v down 17.2%) after their spikes of the previous Friday, which just means they’re back at
more logical levels for the time being. Overall the week was one that saw consolidation and
checking back of positions and that’s probably a healthy thing.
With covering of the TAHO short we now have 13 open positions on our ‘Stocks to Follow’ list,
two less than our self-imposed maximum. Six are in the green, six are in the red, one is
unchanged.
Company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
Top Picks
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to str buy C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$2.67 16.1% best LT value
Minera IRL IRL.to hold C$0.30 22-jul-12 C$0.18 -40.0% top pick called at 24c, added
Longs
B2Gold BTO.to buy C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.18 3.6% sold 1/2, rest rides. Quality
Lara Expl. LRA.v hold C$1.15 08-apr-12 C$1.00 -13.0% solid biz model, LT hold
Eco Oro Min. EOM.to add C$0.48 22-sep-13 C$0.45 -6.3% adding more, spec pol risk
Dalradian Res DNA.to hold C$0.65 27-oct-13 C$0.82 26.2% Holding on good run
Coro Mining COP.to buy C$0.125 26-jan-14 C$0.14 12.0% Cu spec play started well
True Gold TGM.v hold C$0.395 02-feb-14 C$0.395 0.0% Was flip, now LT hold
Santacruz Silver SCZ.v hold C$1.04 26-jan-12 C$1.18 13.5% added, now full position
Shorts
Pretium Res PVG short U$5.38 22-nov-13 U$6.70 -24.5% $4 downside target
Gold Res Corp GORO short U$5.07 26-jan-14 U$5.47 -7.9% New re-short now full pos.
Smaller/Riskier
Focus Ventures FCV.v hold C$0.175 01-jul-12 C$0.24 37.1% revised tgt 25c
Darwin Res DAR.v hold C$0.10 14-jul-12 C$0.05 -50.0% drills mediocre, hold for now
Closed in 2014 closed close price
Fortuna Silver FVI.to jan'14 C$2.80 23-dec-13 C$3.19 13.9% small ST trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to jan'14 C$2.06 07-jun-13 C$2.30 11.7% trading position finally closed
Network Expl. NET.v feb'14 C$0.01 22-jul-12 C$0.005 -50.0% position closed, did nothing
Tahoe Resources TAHO short U$13.10 08-apr-13 U$21.72 -65.8% short closed due to reality
2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 closed positions in appendices below
Overall a quiet week for stocks, which isn’t a bad thing. I’m expecting more fun and games
once PDAC gets underway but for this week, commentary is kept well below last week’s levels.
Now for some notes on a selection of the above stocks.
Minera IRL (IRL.to) (MIRL.L): Position added: Please note cost average down to 30c via
averaging down last week. Interesting to note IRL’s whipping boy status among those who
don’t give more than a cursory glance at its financials, as your author has been sent a few
“analyses” from supposed experts (names withheld) that would be funny if they didn’t have
such a reach with the investment public. But hey, let them continue. In the end they’ll do what
they always do and quietly drop the subject, preferring to shout about their winning picks only.
Eco Oro Minerals (EOM.to): Added a few more: I saw it running on Wednesday and was
tempted to add a few, so I did. It fell back to a more reasonable 45c come the end of the week,
11

but the signal was clear enough; anyone wanting size in EOM will have to pay up, which is what
will happen when the Páramo call goes with this company. For more news and the latest ETA
on the key páramo news, see ‘Regional Politics’ below.
Santacruz Silver (SCZ.v): One line of reply I’0ve taken from a few mailers since pointing to
FVI as a suitable buyer of SCZ is “what about Silvercrest?” and that came to mind again when
SVL announced its $20m bought deal financing last week. After all, what does that company
need with capital right now, unless it plans to put on another growth spurt? In trading news
SCZ did well and traded solidly, finding a floor at $1.10 and buyers all the way back up. I’m
getting more comfortable about re-holding some silver exposure with every week that passes
and it might be time to add another name to holdings.
Pretium Resources (PVG) (PVG.to): The financing finally arrived and in the end PVG has
gone for a sort of compromise solution (2) of running a flow-through financing (which at least
means we know the cash is going into the ground in Canada) which will raise $26m gross once
the overallotment facility is filled (and it will
be). That’s a decent cash raise, but due to the
high burn rate of this junior it’s nowhere near
enough to see the company through 2014 and
means PVG will have to go back to market
again before the year is done. As the 5 day
chart here shows, the news on Thursday
evening took the edge of PVG’s week and the
stock closed down slightly, though it was
hardly an almighty cave-in
With the expected financing round now
announced, it’s time for me to make a call on
the position and the decision is to hold for the
moment, at least for a couple of weeks to see
how PVG comes out of the other side of PDAC. I am bullish about the prospects for gold, but a
little hedging wouldn’t go amiss for the time being either and as I’m happy overall with the
general shape of the portfolio, plus utterly confident that no major would be stupid enough to
buy into this story and buy out PVG/VoK on the flimsy and geologically controversial evidence
presented so far, there’s no rush on my part.
Focus Ventures (FCV.v): FCV did what I expected it to do and traded back under the 25c
warrants trigger price last week. So be it, but there’s no rush here either and the real fun won’t
begin before the drills are turning and results
flowing from the Bayovar project. On that score, we
hear that the timeline is still set for drilling to begin
early March, so at some point next month I expect
to be road tripping to see for myself.
Dalradian Resources (DNA.to): The ten day
price chart is what we need here, rather than the
five day chart. Once again we see a tempering of
an overenthusiastic previous week, but the final
final here is that DNA is trading nearly 20% higher
than its recent bought deal ticket price.
B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG): A good week, which saw
BTO benefitting from just the type of “first in line” investment we expect form a market that
sees GDX and GDXJ as the main entry portal for mining stocks. It wasn’t so very long ago that
our half position was trading 50% lower than today, but here we are with a blob of green next
to its name again.
12

The news last week from BTO was about exploration at Masbate, which returned some very
decent looking grades in a new area of the mine but all the same, it wasn’t the type of NR that
will affect its FY14 too greatly.
Coro Mining (COP.to): Some minor news from COP last week, when on Tuesday it
announced (3) that due to delays in the drilling program it doesn’t have enough information yet
to decide whether to fold or carry on with the El Desesperado project in Chile. Therefore it’s
come to an agreement with the underlying owner to extend the optioning-in period that will
allow for the necessary time. In trading, COP dropped back from the previous week’s spike on
moderate volumes (the big % drop coming Friday when somebody liquidated 100k or so of
shares).
The Copper Basket
After eight weeks of 2014 The Copper Basket is showing a 17.96% gain to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/14 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Augusta Res AZC.to 1.51 144.41 516.99 3.58 137.1%
2 Reservoir Min. RMC.v 4.97 41.76 288.14 6.90 38.8%
3 NGEx Resources NGQ.to 1.43 168.71 273.31 1.62 13.3%
4 Lumina Copper LCC.v 6.29 44.07 235.77 5.35 -14.9%
5 Hot Chili Ltd HCH.ax 0.425 333.11 153.23 0.46 8.2%
6 Copper Fox CUU.v 0.375 402.96 132.98 0.33 -12.0%
7 Nevada Copper NCU.to 1.35 80.5 121.56 1.51 11.9%
8 Western Copper WRN.to 0.76 93.68 83.38 0.89 17.1%
9 NovaCopper NCQ.to 1.60 53.4 76.90 1.44 -10.0%
10 Panoro Minerals PML.v 0.35 204.71 63.46 0.31 -11.4%
11 Curis Resources CUV.to 0.57 74.79 53.85 0.72 26.3%
12 Coro Mining COP.to 0.10 159.37 22.31 0.14 40.0%
13 Cordoba Min. CDB.v 0.45 31.88 17.85 0.56 24.4%
14 AQM Copper AQM.v 0.11 139.05 17.38 0.125 13.6%
15 Oracle Mining OMN.to 0.27 49.03 11.52 0.235 -13.0%
NB: HCH.ax priced in AUD$, rest CAD$ Portfolio avg 17.96%
Another place where we saw retracement, as the Copper Basket dropped 3.2% of its melt-up
gains of the previous week. Of the 15
components, seven went up (LCC.v, AZC.to, The Copper basket 2014, weekly evolution
RMC.v, CUU.v, HCH.ax, PML.v, OMN.to) and 25%
eight went down (NGQ.to, NCU.to, NCQ.to,
20%
WRN.to, CUV.to, COP.to, AQM.v, CDB.v).
There were some decent percentage winners 15%
among the names, including the moves in
10%
Oracle Mining (OMN.to up 27.0%) and
Reservoir Minerals (RMC.v up 10.6%), but 5%
overall they were outweighed by the losers
0%
that were headed up by Coro Mining (COP.to
jan5th 12th 19th 26th feb2nd 9th 16th 23rd
down 17.6%), AQM Copper (AQM.v dow
source: IKN calcs
16.7%) and Nevada Copper (NCU.to down
11.1%).
Copper the metal had another quiet week and stayed right in the middle of that long-standing
trading range. For what it’s worth, Chile’s sector watchdog CESCO last week called for a 2014
average price of between $3.00/lb and $3.30/lb, which means they’re not taking many chances
though that wide range may indicate downside pressure. As there’s not much extra to add to
13

the price move news this week, here’s a longer-view chart that shows the range as well as any:
Moving right along, we get to the inventories news, with numbers supplied as usual by Cochilco
(4). Total world stocks rose by a very minor 0.1% to finish the week at 494,979mt, but again it
was the moves inside that overall world figure that matter the most. The lesser news first, with
small Comex stocks drop by 643 metric tonnes (4.0%) to finish at 15,518mt. So to the real stuff
and LME stocks dropped by 13,775mt (4.6%) to 285,350mt, while Shanghai Futures Exchange
warehouse inventories jumped again, this time by 13,770mt (7.6%) to finish the week at
194,111mt. Interesting that barring five measly tonnes, what left LME arrived in Shanghai.
Now for some updates on component stocks on just two of our component stocks:
Reservoir Minerals (RMC.v): RMC gave us news, more news and very positive market action
once again. The first news on Tuesday (5) was the release of the final set of drill assays, a
process of 1) FCX gave RMC a whole bunch of data 2) RMC passed it on. The interesting
intersections this time weren’t about the already known high-grading zone, but more on the
holes to the East of the main zone, the best (FMTC 1328) showing 902m of 0.65% Cu and 0.14
g/t Au (0.75% CuEq). That’s nothing more or less than a full-scale large porphyry intersect, the
type that get people hot and bothered all over the world. That’s a hole that compares well to
most any large porphyry system in Latin America (see Relincho, Haquira, Taca Taca, Galeno,
and any number of others owned by juniors that have given up big drill results in the last few
years) so even without the big and rich high sulphide epithermal resource next door (and now
under a 43-101 resource) this would be an exciting project. As it is, it’s a humdinger of a
system that’s being revealed.
The other news last week was of a financing round (6) that was priced at $5.75 and is set to
raise $33m in gross proceeds. It filled in about 14 nanoseconds of announcement, which shows
in the way the stock traded over the week. RMC didn’t skip a beat and traded into Friday under
the assumption that it’s not if but when FCX make its move and looks to buy out the company
from the project.
Oracle Mining (OMN.to): As posited last week OMN rebounded and put in the best
percentage win of the Copper Basket pack last week. However, as this chart shows unless you
were the earlybird who picked up those 20c shares on Tuesday morning, it wasn’t a tradeable
14

move.
However and as noted last week, the chances of it repeating 30c are still pretty good. The
question to ask is whether you’d risk an illiquid stock right now. Me, no.
The Low Cost Producer Basket
After 8 weeks of 2013, the Low Cost Producer Basket is showing a 21.87% gain to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/14 Shares out Mkt Cap (Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Freeport FCX 37.74 1040 34.69 33.36 -11.6%
2 Goldcorp GG 21.67 812 22.41 27.60 27.4%
3 Barrick ABX 17.63 1000 20.95 20.95 18.8%
4 Newmont NEM 23.03 497.87 11.64 23.38 1.5%
5 Silver Wheaton SLW 20.19 357.39 9.23 25.84 28.0%
6 Franco Nevada FNV 40.74 147.01 7.72 52.53 28.9%
7 Agnico Eagle AEM 26.38 173.43 5.95 34.28 29.9%
8 Pan American PAAS 11.70 151.41 2.29 15.13 29.3%
9 B2Gold BTG 2.02 651.4 1.88 2.89 43.1%
10 First Majestic AG 9.80 117.02 1.41 12.09 23.4%
all prices in U$, using NYSE ticker prices Portfolio avg 21.87%
The basket average added 1.87% to
the score and as seen in the tracking The Low Cost Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
chart, even managed to close the comparative to GDX control
gap a bit between it and the 30%
benchmark GDX. Seven of the 25%
components went up (ABX, GG, 20%
SLW, FNV, AEM, PAAS, BTG) and
15%
three went down (FCX, NEM, AG)
10%
and what strikes is how the relative
laggards of the group just keep on 5%
lagging, while success begets 0%
success at the top of the pile.
15
ts13ceD ht5naj ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2bef ht9 ht61 dr32
basket
gdx control
source: Yahoo! Finance, IKN calcs

Newmont (NEM) and Pan American (PAAS) go in different directions
The moves we saw in, Pan American Silver (PAAS) (PAA.to) and Newmont (NEM), two of our
featured basket stocks, on Friday morning were interesting, because both reacted to quarterly
results news that was similar in many respects, as both reported a large quarterly net loss due
largely to write downs (NEM $1.17Bn net loss on a $2.09Bn impairment, PAAS a $293m net loss
on a $337m impairment) but as this chart shows, reaction was very different for the two stocks:
The reason seems to be reserves. NEM disappointed the market by cutting nearly 11m oz Au
from its gold reserves and as pointed out here, the company may be cutting just 2.5m because
of gold price assumption, but I really don’t get why anyone should think “revisions due to
updated mine designs etc etc...” should be any different from “less gold because gold price is
lower”.
Meanwhile, even though PAAS adjusted its reserves for the drop in silver price during 2013, it
managed to increase its P+P Ag reserves number. That apparently made the difference (even
though you have to be very leery about the absolute quality of some of those ounces, starting
with the ones contained underground at Navidad).
Despite the mediocre numbers, I still think the world is being too harsh on NEM at the moment
and fancy it to play catch-up to the field as 2014 goes on.
Regional politics
Colombia: The páramo de Santurbán decision to be made public in March
It was starting to look this way, but now we have some official guidance. It seems President
Santos is thinking election strategy already, because news is (7) that the final decision on the
border limits of the Páramo de Santurbán regional nature reserve (i.e. the line which will
determine whether miners can or cannot develop their local concessions) will be announced
after the national legislative elections, which are set for March 9th. NB: This vote is to elect new
members to the national Congress and should not be confused with the presidential election set
16

for May.
According to a statement for Colombian Environment Minister and person in charge of the
eventual decision, Luz Helena Sarmiento, at the 3rd Congress of Responsible Mining held last
week in Cartagena, the boundary has been decided and that “after the March elections we will
be in the next round table meeting with the (local region) mayors”. As she is already on record
as saying that the boundary limits will be revealed at the next meeting of local politicians, the
date has now been set. She went on to say that, “we could show the limit (today) but it will be
adopted once the solutions have been reached and implemented with the local residents.”
Once again, we need to separate the interminable delays as the clear negative and the signal of
what’s to come as the clear positive. The process is dragging on and on, but the way in which
the Santos government obviously doesn’t want to attract attention to this issue before a local
vote to decide congressional representatives means that it’s trying to avoid an emotive
response from the electorate at the wrong time. And as in a recent poll (8) 33% of Colombians
said they have a negative image of mining in the country, the wrong announcement at the
wrong time could easily lose votes.
It’s taking a lot longer than originally planned, but on the other hand it does mean I’ve had
chance to buy more Eco Oro (EOM.to) at lower prices and get a better position. This is a
political risk trade win just waiting to happen but it needs at least three more weeks, it appears.
Colombia: Protesters block access to the AngloGold Ashanti La Colosa mine
More Colombia and not the first time this has happened, but the latest in a series of protests
against the massive gold mine project in Antioquia, Colombia. Reports last week (9) were of an
extended (five days and counting) road block that was stopping workers from reaching the La
Colosa project, composed of locals who say they have already seen their water resources suffer
since the arrival of the mining company and fear the area will be turned dry in the event of the
mine becoming a reality.
Market Watching
Twas the week before Peedac and all through the house...
...not a creature was stirring, not even an investor relations representative with a news release.
We did of course have new financings announced to the market last week, including Reservoir’s
financing and Pretium’s flow through (see above) and others such as the highly regarded
(though every time I look it’s overpriced for my taste, but WTFDIK) Silvercrest Mines (SVLC)
(SVL.to) raising its $20m (10) in a bought deal, but bigger ones such as Detour’s (DGC.to )
CAD$150m cash raise as well (which from the look of the PPS action afterwards will almost
certainly finish as being $172m, thanks to the overallotment facility).
But aside the corporate raising type of NR, there was little going on in the way of significant
newsflow for the juniors. Which is unsurprising, because next weekend sees the start of the big
PDAC bash in Toronto and by some strange coincidence, we’re sure to get those drill assay
results back form the lab just in time for the Monday morning NR.
Which is my cute way of telling you there’s not much in ‘Market Watching’ this week.
More seriously...
Flippancy aside, the conclusions drawn from watching the market last week were less about
specific stories and move about the macro sector.
• Bought deals and financings continue to flow
• Gold looks healthy and consolidated well (see today’s intro)
• Doubts remain about the bull side in the copper market (see Copper Basket)
17

• Political upheaval in Ukraine, which could lead to anything (and markets don’t like
uncertainties). The lesser factor of Venezuela too, but those looking for some sort of
“change” there are relying more on their own personal hopes than anything that
resembles reality.
These are interesting times, in the Chinese sense. It as if the miners’ financial theatre of 2014 is
being set now, with scenery and props being wheeled into position.
Conclusion
IKN250 is done, we end with bullet points:
• Today’s edition is mostly about the top two pieces, less about the tracking sections. The
gold market may have disappointed others because it refused to shoot Northwards
immediately on command of the fiat-prophets-of-doom, but from my vantage point
everything looks in good shape. But aside from the held bullion (which makes watching
th events in the Ukraine that much easier) your author’s concern is miners not the
metals and as the bet round these parts is to support the quality end of the market
(and leave the stupid stocks like GCM and AUN to those who still think roulette is fun),
consolidation of the sector must be welcomed, as it’s the force that separates wheat
from chaff.
• As for stocks worthy of your consideration, True Gold (TGM.v) shows up well after a
better look at its fundamentals today. There is risk, mainly from the uncertain politics
(I’m no Burkina expert and that’s unlikely to change), but there’s more than enough
potential reward from a very solid set of economics and logical development path to
outweigh those doubts. TGM isn’t one that i’ll ever bet the farm upon, but it is one that
can offer a good win. The M&A angle means it could come sooner rather than later,
too.
• At this point last week I wrote “Be bullish about this market”. That hasn’t changed and
neither had the suggestion that you take a closer look at the larger cap mining
companies, rather than focus on these juniors we do round here. If you take my
suggestions on favoured stocks then fine (start with RIO.to), if you prefer other names
then you won’t hear complaints from this quarter, as long as they pass the ‘quality’
smell test. Just be long miners, that’s all.
The top long-term picks are Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) and Minera IRL (IRL.to). I thank
you in advance for any feedback. Flash updates will be sent promptly if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Otto
18

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/burkina-faso
(2) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pretivm-complete-20-million-flow-213900811.html
(3) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/coro-amends-option-terms-el-153316276.html
(4) http://www.cochilco.cl/Archivos/destacados/20140221114420_MERC%202014%2002%2021%20(2).pdf
(5) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/reservoir-minerals-reports-further-high-211013083.html
(6) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/reservoir-minerals-raise-cdn-33-152400460.html
(7) http://www.vanguardia.com/economia/local/248029-delimitacion-de-santurban-se-conocera-tras-elecciones
(8)
http://www.elcolombiano.com/BancoConocimiento/3/33_del_pais_tiene_imagen_negativa_de_mineria/33_del_pais_tien
e_imagen_negativa_de_mineria.asp
(9)
http://www.elcolombiano.com/BancoConocimiento/M/manifestantes_bloquean_la_via_a_la_mina_de_anglogold_en_jeri
co/manifestantes_bloquean_la_via_a_la_mina_de_anglogold_en_jerico.asp
(10) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/silvercrest-mines-announces-20-million-211600409.html
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2013
Closed in 2013 closed close price
USA Graphite USGT feb'13 U$0.93 08-jan-13 U$0.17 81.7% short tgt made/trade closed
Lachlan Star LSA.to feb'13 C$1.50 30-sep-12 C$0.95 -36.7% sold to reduce port risk
United Silver USC.to mar'13 C$0.21 28-oct-12 C$0.095 -54.8% small Ag sector trade, failed
Aurcana Corp AUN.v apr'13 C$1.07 11-nov-12 C$0.55 -48.6% closed on poor YE results
Gold Res Corp GORO apr'13 U$14.11 25-jan-13 U$9.38 33.5% short tgt made/trade closed
Marlin Gold MLN.v apr'13 C$0.075 10-feb-13 C$0.065 -13.3% closed trade
Bear Creek BCM.v may'13 C$2.58 01-apr-13 C$2.40 -7.0% near-term, time ran out
Lupaka Gold LPK.to may'13 C$1.12 23-oct-11 C$0.32 -71.4% towel thrown in
Tahoe Resources TAHO may'13 U$18.62 08-apr-13 U$14.70 21.1% took profit on ST short
OceanaGold OGC.to jun'13 C$3.03 16-sep-12 C$1.18 -61.1% sold on gold drop
IMPACT Silver IPT.v jun'13 C$1.14 13-jan-13 C$0.62 -45.6% sold on silver drop
Duran Ventures DRV.v jun'13 C$0.045 10-may-13 C$0.025 -44.4% ST trade never worked
Plata Latina PLA.v jun'13 C$0.79 10-apr-12 C$0.13 -83.5% closed
Bellhaven BHV.v jun'13 C$0.065 03-jun-13 C$0.12 84.6% closed ST trade
B2Gold BTO.to aug'13 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.44 12.1% sold 1/2 to raise cash
Colossus Min. CSI.to aug'13 C$0.72 24-jul-13 C$0.79 9.7% closed thru nerves on future
Pretium Res PVG.to aug'13 C$8.20 11-jun-13 C$10.14 23.7% closed to raise cash
Bear Creek BCM.v sep'13 C$2.06 30-may-13 C$2.20 6.8% sold on pol risk decision
MAG Silver MVG oct'13 U$7.00 12-sep-13 U$5.62 19.6% near-term short
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'13 U$9.52 03-may-13 U$4.98 47.7% short tgt made, covered
AQM Copper AQM.v oct'13 C$0.31 16-oct-11 C$0.125 -59.7% closed failed trade
First Majestic AG nov'13 U$11.51 07-nov-13 U$10.50 8.8% v near term short, closed
Fortuna Silver FSM nov'13 U$4.00 07-nov-13 U$3.68 8.0% v near term short, closed
Primero PPP nov'13 U$5.70 07-nov-13 U$5.75 -0.9% v near term short, closed
Starcore Intl SAM.to nov'13 C$0.235 08-sep-13 C$0.17 -27.7% ST trade didn't work sm loss
B2Gold BTO.to dec'13 C$2.22 28-nov-12 C$2.16 -2.7% closed ST trade to raise cash
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2012
Closed in 2012 closed close PPS
Soltoro SOL.v jan'12 C$0.87 07-nov-11 C$0.94 8.0% cash moved to BCM.v
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to feb'12 C$0.84 13-oct-10 C$0.98 16.7% trade closed on ELG.v offer
Minefinders MFN feb'12 U$11.68 17-nov-11 U$14.80 26.7% target made, trade closed
Iron Creek IRN.v mar'12 C$0.58 26-sep-10 C$0.31 -46.6% time up on small bad trade
U.S. Silver USA.to apr'12 C$2.18 15-mar-12 C$1.86 -14.7% ST trade no good, cut loss
Augusta Res. AZC.to may'12 C$3.10 29-jan-12 C$2.07 -33.2% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Bellhaven BHV.v may'12 C$0.50 22-sep-10 C$0.28 -44.0% new mgmt not impressive
Zincore Metals ZNC.to may'12 C$0.325 29-jul-11 C$0.17 -47.7% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Soltoro SOL.v may'12 C$0.70 18-mar-11 C$0.41 -41.4% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
U.S. Silver USA.to aug'12 C$1.78 27-jul-12 C$1.36 -23.6% fail ST trade close pre split
Estrella Gold EST.v aug'12 C$0.91 27-mar-11 C$0.14 -84.6% Closed on port realignment
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'12 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.32 397.2% sell call $6.17/ Mar25
Strait Minerals SRD.v oct'12 C$0.125 09-dec-11 C$0.12 -4.0% closing coverage til FY13
Sunward Res SWD.to oct'12 C$1.47 13-mar-11 C$1.21 -17.7% sold, took loss
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'12 U$21.47 09-sep-12 U$17.40 19.0% Short trade closed
Yellowhead Min. YMI.to nov'12 C$1.00 01-apr-12 C$0.63 -37.0% sold, took loss
Primero Mining PPP nov'12 U$7.26 07-oct-12 U$6.73 7.3% Short trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v nov'12 C$3.38 07-nov-11 C$3.72 10.1% Took small profit
Vena Resources VEM.to dec'12 C$0.70 31-may-09 C$0.18 -74.3% Failed trade (caps F)
Galway Res GWY.v dec'12 C$2.19 24-nov-12 C$2.30 5.0% closed good ST arb trade
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2011
Closed in 2011 closed close PPS
Sunward Res SWD.v jan'11 C$1.05 21-nov-10 C$1.63 55.2% target made, trade closed
Serengeti Res SIR.v mar'11 C$0.245 05-dec-10 C$0.285 16.3% sold pre-tgt, ST trade fail
Fronteer Gold FRG apr'11 U$2.37 03-may-09 U$15.24 543.0% buyout, trade closed
Minefinders MFN apr'11 U$9.09 07-nov-10 U$16.89 85.8% target made, trade closed
Metalline Min. MMG may'11 U$1.04 26-jan-11 U$0.89 -14.4% exit, resource disappointed
Peregrine Met PGM.to jul'11 C$0.87 06-mar-11 C$2.60 198.9% buyout offer, closed
Dynasty Metals DMM.to jul'11 C$4.20 03-may-09 C$2.85 -32.1% Sold. Fail. Move on.
Aura Silver AUU.v aug'11 C$0.22 13-oct-10 C$0.16 -36.4% Bad pick. Take loss
U.S. Silver USA.v aug'11 C$0.52 26-jan-11 C$0.71 36.5% closed to make room
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'11 C$2.80 12-may-11 C$4.27 52.5% target made, trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v sep'11 C$3.80 27-may-11 C$4.17 9.7% macro sell call victim
Minefinders MFN sep'11 U$14.70 10-aug-11 U$15.15 3.1% macro sell call victim
Great Panther GPR.to sep'11 C$3.03 22-aug-11 C$2.64 -12.9% macro sell call victim
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'11 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.36 400.9% sold 20%, macro sell call
Focus Ventures FCV.v nov'11 C$0.40 20-apr-10 C$0.20 -50.0% cut losses, bad trade
Regulus Res. REG.v dec'11 C$1.17 14-aug-11 C$0.52 -55.6% cut on news of poor 43-101
2009 and 2010 closed positions in appendices below
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2010
Closed in 2010 closed close PPS
B2Gold Corp BTO.to Jan'10 C$0.88 08-nov-09 C$1.49 68.2% target made, trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v Jan'10 C$0.18 23-aug-09 C$0.40 122.2% target made, trade closed
MAG Silver MVG mar'10 U$5.60 23-nov-09 U$7.28 30.0% closed in pdac week
Riverside Res RRI.v mar'10 C$0.435 20-sep-09 C$0.60 37.9% closed in pdac week
Amarillo Gold AGC.v mar'10 C$0.81 31-may-09 C$0.70 -13.6% closed in pdac week
B2Gold Corp BTO.to apr'10 C$1.24 18-feb-10 C$1.50 21.0% target made, trade closed
Lumina Copper LCC.v apr'10 C$0.84 14-jun-09 C$1.55 51.2% total position now sold
Troy Resources TRY.to may'10 C$1.10 03-may-09 C$2.25 104.5% sold on negative results
AuEx Ventures XAU.to may'10 C$2.51 24-may-09 C$3.38 34.7% trade closed
Nevada Copper NCU.to jun'10 C$3.27 14-mar-10 C$2.03 -37.9% need to lower Cu exposure
Carpathian Gold CPN.to jun'10 C$0.39 14-mar-10 C$0.35 -10.3% too exposed to cap raising
Amerix PM Corp APM.v jun'10 C$0.065 08-nov-09 C$0.05 -23.1% victim of macro bear
Antares Minerals ANM.v jun'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$2.10 47.9% sold half
Vena Resources VEM.to jun'10 C$0.37 31-may-09 C$0.23 -37.8% sold half
Minera Andes MAI.to sep'10 C$0.75 28-jul-10 C$0.95 26.7% ST trade closed
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to sep'10 C$0.52 01-aug-10 C$0.75 44.2% target made, trade closed
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'10 C$1.45 25-may-10 C$2.01 34.5% target made, trade closed
Blue Sky Uran BSK.v oct'10 C$0.41 19-may-10 C$0.22 -46.3% v small v bad trade closed
Dia Bras Expl DIB.v oct'10 C$0.14 30-aug-09 C$0.35 150.0% target made, trade closed
S. Amer. Silver SAC.to nov'10 C$1.38 24-oct-10 C$1.60 -15.9% loss on short, small fail
Ventana Gold VEN.to nov'10 C$7.92 27-jun-10 C$13.51 70.6% trade closed on buyout
Lumina Copper LCC.v nov'10 C$1.42 11-aug-10 C$3.65 157.0% trade closed
Antares Minerals ANM.v dec'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$8.40 491.5% trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.v dec'10 C$0.69 23-mar-10 C$2.16 213.0% trade closed
Coro Mining COP.to dec'10 C$0.585 03-oct-10 C$1.24 112.0% target made, trade closed
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2009
Closed positions closed closing PPS
Cardero Res CDY/CDU.to May'09 U$1.20 03-May-09 U$0.87 -27.5% sold on negative news
Eastmain Res. ER.to May'09 C$1.04 06-May-09 C$1.315 26.4% trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v May'09 C$0.165 03-May-09 C$0.235 42.4% trade closed
Latin Amer Min. LAT.v May'09 C$0.12 03-May-09 C$0.158 29.2% trade closed
Aquiline Res. AQI.to July'09 C$2.03 16-Jun-09 C$1.68 -17.2% took loss, bad timing
Chariot Resources CHD.to Aug'09 C$0.20 12-Jul-09 C$0.415 107.5% trade closed
Castle Gold CSG.v Sep'09 C$0.64 02-Aug-09 C$0.60 -6.3% ST trade didn't work out
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to Sep'09 C$2.30 12-May-09 C$4.50 95.7% profit taken
Los Andes Copper LA.v Sep'09 C$0.09 21-Jun-09 C$0.09 0% trade closed
Pediment Gold PEZ.to Oct'09 C$0.80 09-Aug-09 C$1.00 25.0% trade closed
Minera Andes MAI.to Oct'09 C$0.68 03-May-09 C$0.71 4.4% too much bad news
Dynasty Metals DMM.to Nov'09 C$4.18 03-May-09 C$6.01 43.8% half sold
Rusoro Mining RML.v Nov'09 C$0.55 03-May-09 C$0.57 3.6% underperformed
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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