IKN #245Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 245, January 12th 2014
Contents
This Week: Gold versus silver, The Canadian Dollar versus the US Dollar: Times have changed,
No IKN Weekly next weekend.
Fundamental Analysis: Deferred.
Stocks to Follow: Overview, Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) (FSM), Dalradian Resources (DNA.to),
Rio Alto (RIO.to) (RIOM), Pretium Resources (PVG.to) (PVG), Tahoe Resources (TAHO)
(THO.to), Minera IRL (IRL.to) (MIRL.L), Eco Oro (EOM.to).
Copper Basket: Overview, NGEx Resources (NGQ.to), Coro Mining (COP.to), Reservoir
Minerals (RMC.v).
Low Cost Producer Basket: Overview.
Regional Politics: Colombia: The environmental permit for exploration story has legs,
Uruguay: Anti-mining groups not cutting much ice (yet), Chile: Problems permitting Caserones,
Peru: The 2014 Cañariaco circus begins, Regional Presidential elections in 2014.
Market Watching: Tognetti and Mirasol (MRZ.v), Excellon Resources (EXN.to) may be in
serious trouble, The 4q13 production results begin in earnest.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Gold versus silver
The simple story here, we’ll leave the deeper arguments to the dedicated bullion-watcher
people and websites. Even as we remember with a chill in the spine just how bad 2013 was for
gold, this chart of the Gold/Silver ratio shows that silver had an even worse time of it. The
trend has been clear since the spike low in 2011 and after basically treading water in 2012 in
the 50X to 55X range, silver lost another ~15% in relative price to gold last year, even as gold
did its own swan dive.
1

The reasons behind this relative drop are up for debate (they always are) and this isn’t really
the place, but I would point to the way in which industrial metals are coming back into market
focus, thanks mainly (or at least the headline grabbing reason) to the admittedly tepid but still
clear US economic recovery. As most silver production comes as a by-product of base metals
production (zinc, lead, copper) it makes for a faster potential market surplus to that of gold
(always worth remembering that dedicated silver companies such as First Majestic are the
exception, not the rule). Silver isn’t gold, neither is it poor man’s gold. It’s silver and has its own
rulebook. It’s not a coincidence that my portfolio exposure to silver is minimal at the moment
and, after having sold out of the quick trade thing in FVI last week, I’d venture to say I’m net
negative the metal thanks to the TAHO short, at least as far as the stocks side of the overall
port is concerned (I hold some silver physical long-term).
The Canadian Dollar versus the US Dollar: Times have changed
I considered making mention of this in December and now slightly regret not doing so. This
chart sums up neatly the way in which the forex between the two North American dollars has
changed and the notes show the way in which I’ve been considering the deterioration in the
Loonie compared to the Greenback over time. For most of 2013 it wasn’t an issue that overly
concerned and for that reason, I’ve kept the fundies analyses at a steady 1:1 rate. But starting
November and then into December the Loonie weakened more considerably against the
Greenback and then last week the acceleration down to the current ~U$0.92 per CAD$1 forces
action
The weaker Loonie affects mining companies in many ways, here are just a few main points:
• The simplest are the share prices, with the most obvious examples being those stocks
with dual listings. Just a few off the cuff, Fortuna Silver (FVI.to is CAD$3.26, FSM is
U$2.98), Tahoe Resources (THO.to is CAD$17.87, TAHO is U$16.41), B2Gold (BTO.to is
CAD$2.30, BTG is U$2.10), and Great Panther (GPR.to is CAD$0.84, GPL is U$0.77)
are four we follow here from a whole big bunch we could choose from.
• Secondly, it will positively affects producer companies that report in Canadian dollars,
as for each U$1 of metal sold, the company gets CAD$1.08 to put on there revenues.
We assume of course that the company is free cash flow positive in its mine site
operations. However, this group is quite small these days as most mining companies,
used to selling their wares on the world market for USD, use the United State dollar for
their reporting currency (again, covered companies that fall into that category around
these parts include RIO.to, FVI.to, BTO.to etc)
• Thirdly, it will negatively affect those companies which need to spend in U.S. dollars,
have little or no income and report in Canadian dollars. This is the most relevant for our
2

purposes because it’s a good description of your actual Canadian junior exploreco, and
most of those report in Canadian dollars. When, for example, a bill is presented to a
Canadian exploreco for U$1m worth of drilling, that’s going to take CAD$1.08m out of
its cash treasury and that’s the kind of difference we need to take into consideration.
There has been a lot of cost cutting in the explorer section, but the currency moves of
the last six weeks, especially that of the last week, have the capacity to cancel those
savings out.
• The final point I want to make is a more general one but it’s a positive (nice to end on
an optimistic note, no?); A weakening currency is usually good for that country’s stock
market. In the face of a devaluing currency, people will look to find ways in which to
protect asset value and one of the easiest ways is to invest in places that give direct
exposure to the stronger currencies in the outside world. It’s no coincidence that
Argentina’s stock market was one of the world’s biggest percentage gainers last year
and although I’m not saying the Loonie is about to take a dive the way that the Argy
Peso or the Venezuelan Bolivar Fuerte did last year, the principle is the same.
All those and more, but the practical side is what we need to consider and therefore, from this
moment all IKN analyses will move their USD/CAD forex assumption from 1:1 and use 1:0.92.
No IKN Weekly next weekend
Final reminder: Next week sees your author and his family in Tarapoto, with the week after
including some beach time and capital city tourism. The Weekly will next appear on January
26th in abridged form and full service returns February onwards.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Deferred.
Stocks to Follow
The row of positive weekly reports continue, but not quite as across the board this time. Of the
13 positions open this time last week, seven made gains during the week just gone (RIO.to,
IRL.to, RIO.to trading position, TAHO short, PVG short, FCV.v, FVI.to), one was unchanged
(NEI.v) and the other five showed losses (BTO.to, LRA.v, EOM.to, DNA.to, DAR.v). There were
no double figure percentage wins (though a small shout-out due to RIO.to for its decent 5.1%
addition) and no double figure percentage losses.
With the closure of the near-term trading position in Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) the list is back
down to 12 open positions, three less than our self-imposed maximum. Ten are in the red, two
in the green.
3

Company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
Top Picks
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to str buy C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$1.84 -20.0% best LT value
Minera IRL IRL.to hold C$0.35 22-jul-12 C$0.205 -41.4% top pick called at 24c
Longs
B2Gold BTO.to buy C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$2.30 -25.1% sold 1/2, rest rides. Quality
Lara Expl. LRA.v hold C$1.15 08-apr-12 C$0.89 -22.6% solid biz model, LT hold
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to str buy C$2.06 07-jun-13 C$1.84 -10.7% re-add Dec'13 avg downx2
Eco Oro Min. EOM.to hold C$0.50 22-sep-13 C$0.41 -18.0% st pol risk play, added
Dalradian Res DNA.to add C$0.65 27-oct-13 C$0.63 -3.1% Avg down again
Shorts
Tahoe Resources TAHO short U$13.10 08-apr-13 U$16.41 -25.3% port hedge, easy2b short
Pretium Res PVG short U$5.38 22-nov-13 U$5.17 3.9% $4 downside target
Smaller/Riskier
Focus Ventures FCV.v spec buy C$0.175 01-jul-12 C$0.22 25.7% revised tgt 25c
Darwin Res DAR.v spec buy C$0.10 14-jul-12 C$0.065 -35.0% drilling again soon
Network Expl. NET.v hold C$0.01 22-jul-12 C$0.005 -50.0% V. small spec, foothold
Closed in 2014 closed close price
Fortuna Silver FVI.to jan'14 C$2.80 23-dec-13 C$3.19 13.9% small ST trade closed
2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 closed positions in appendices below
Now for some notes on a selection of the above stocks.
Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) (FSM): Position sold. As per the Flash update of last Tuesday (see
appendix 1) as roughly to plan, FVI was sold for its trading profit last week. By the time Friday
had come and gone the stock was priced at $3.26 so I left a little cash on the table (more
notably, on a couple of quick occasions last week it punched through my slated-in $3.30
target), but it’s not one to fret over and a win is a win.
We had November’s nationwide production figures for mining published in Peru and FVI’s
Caylloma mine is one of the reporters. We now know that in October Caylloma (NB, not FVI, as
the following figures do not include the Mexico San José operations at all) produced 5,744kg Ag
and in November 5,581kg Ag, which adds up to a two month total of 364,147 oz silver. If
December comes in at the average of those two, we’re looking at 546k oz Ag for 4q13, which
we can guesstimate round up to 550,000 oz of silver. That would be below the 3q13 production
at the mine of 568,722 oz Ag and also below the current IKN estimate of 580k oz Ag for the
4q13 period (note, no zinc, lead or gold by-products counted).
Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) (FSM): Ag production by qtr
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
700000770000770000800000800000
800000 377377468865486296502835 491181492773580570 536191
100790
600000
400000
200000
559959536426484226509897524906519549499445493438568722580000520000550000550000550000
0
4
11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 tse31q4 tse41q1 tse41q2 tse41q3 tse41q4
Oz Ag/qtr
6
San José Silver prod (oz)
Caylloma Silver prod (oz)
source: company filings
December may be a bumper month and I recall that FVI in the last couple of years has made a

special production effort end year, so my slightly lower projection may not be the case when it
publishes its final production numbers (perhaps this week coming). This chart from the previous
analysis note shows how that fits into the bigger picture.
If silver rallies and FVI reports a good quarter, I think the stock can rise from here and rise
pretty easily. However those are two larger-sized ‘ifs’ and as the whole idea was to play a very
oversold share price to its near-term rebound, I happily take my cash and sit out the next
chapter. Add to the mix my thoughts as outlined in the intro section above on silver’s relative
performance to gold and you’ll gather that if there is to be any return to FVI (or its peers), the
nearer-term trading attitude is the most likely reason.
Dalradian Resources (DNA.to): Trying to add next week. DNA couldn’t hold on to the
gains made on low volume trading the previous week and fell back to the 60c level before
closing Friday at 63c. Still no word on the start of the underground drilling campaign at
Curraghinalt, but it’s sure to start soon enough.
You may note that I’ve stuck “add” next to its name on the above table, because if it goes
under 60c again I’m going to try and get some more (from where we are it wouldn’t take much
more than a weak day or two for gold and a nervous holder). I’m not a fan of pre-setting
trades, but unless the chance opens up tomorrow Monday that’s what I’ll have to do, being
basically incommunicado for the rest of the week. Maybe a bid at 58c and another at 55c.
Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) (RIOM): News Monday from RIO was one of those events that is
wholly positive and good news for the company, as well as showing that it really has its
corporate act together due to the speed of the process, but in the end isn’t news that moves
markets. The November Peru mining production numbers mentioned in the FVI section above
also brought the La Arena total, so here’s the updated chart on that.
RIO.to: Monthly gold production figures
27500
25256 26000
25000 24401
22500
20144 19560 20184 20951
1 2 7 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 16692 17639 1542615091 15998 17039 15635 15431 18109 23426
15000 12887 1379313670 12897
11871
12500 1071210114
10000
7500
5000
2500
0
5
21naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 31naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced
Ozt Au
source: MEM/IKN ests for Dec13
RIO at La Arena posted a November production total of 23,425 oz Au, which means it needs to
put in a new monthly record of just under 26k oz (25,623oz to be anally exact) for the month of
December just gone if it’s going to make the 70k production/sales number that your author
heard (strictly off-record) and relayed a couple of weeks ago. That’s by no means out of the
question and we should get the 4q13 production number from the company this week coming.
Meanwhile, here’s something sent out from Raymond James to its clients on Friday (with
sincere thanks to reader L, who sends many interesting snippets over from brokerage world;
your mails are always greatly appreciated, sir).
Channel check on production – Our channel check today indicates that gold production at Rio
Alto’s La Arena mine in Peru was approximately 23,000 oz in November. Add that to our check
that we had previously for October and the total for the first two months of the quarter is
approximately 44,000 oz.

Potential to beat our forecast on 4Q13 production – While we don’t know what the month of
December was like, given that our forecast for the quarter is 59,000 oz, the fact that they’re at
75% of our forecast over only the first 2/3 of the quarter provides potential for them to beat our
forecast when they announce the production results (I expect them to report the 4Q13 production
next week, but it could be as soon as today). As a reference, when they produced 59,157 oz in
3Q13 it was a quarterly record, so a beat could make for a good headline with a new quarterly
record. YTD through 3Q13 they’ve produced 143,940 oz, and full year guidance is 190,000 -
210,000 oz, implying 4Q13 guidance of 46,060 – 66,060 oz.
IKN back and we can say that “channel check” means RJ has discovered where to go for the
Peru production numbers, so good
for them. But we can also say that
RJ probably doesn’t have its ear too
close to the ground if it was still
forecasting as low as 59k oz Au for
4q13 last week. Mind you, if the
thought that RIO.to is about to
report a bumper quarter is only
beginning to occur to some market
participants, that suits us just fine as
the chances are we’ll get a nice price
bump on the news (assuming gold
price behaves, the ever-necessary
caveat). This might even explain the
outsized gains we saw on Friday, as
although the way on which gold was
affected by the U.S jobs news was a
decent kickstarter RIO.to did better than most liquidly traded goldies (this chart compares
RIO.to to GLD and GDXJ)
Anyway, next week should be a good one for RIO stock and the sooner it’s back with a 2-
handle the better, as far as I’m concerned. Own it.
Pretium Resources (PVG) (PVG.to) We await the financing round, which looks like
happening at-or-around $5. Apart from that, little to report.
Tahoe Resources (THO.to) (TAHO): The other short position had a quiet week too, with the
only thing to catch my eye the
action on Friday. TAHO rallied into
the open that day with the rest of
the mining crew (the BLS jobs
report providing the spark) but
selling came quickly enough. That
(pleasantly) surprised me and
thoughts of how close we are to a
TAHO quarterly production report
came to mind. As the Escobal
mine isn’t in commercial
production yet there’s no strict
need for a 4q13 number, but the
company has indicated it’s going
to report on progress and as such,
a number should pop out between
next week and the week after.
Minera IRL (MIRL.L) (IRL.to): Another week in which we saw IRL claw back a bit of the lost
ground, but at least volumes returned to the main London ticker and trading was reasonably
fluid. The company says it’s busy in the background on the necessary financing package for
6

Ollachea and that’s the next key event for our purposes.
Eco Oro Minerals (EOM.to): The next stage of the long drawn out consulting period is due
on Monday January 20th and by the time reports on that appear, I should at least have some
limited evening internet time (stage two of the two week vacation happens inside internet
range). If developments worthy of comment come up, a Flash update isn’t out of the question.
Meanwhile and semi-related, one eye drifts over to a neighbour of EOM.to at Vetas, Galway
Gold (GLW.v), which ran into an optioning glitch last week. On Friday the company reported (1)
that it had moved to exercise its right of full
purchase of its Vetas property, but the
optioner had rejected the payment. The two
thoughts arising are that first, for those who
remember, local Colombians pulled the same
type of trick on Ventana Gold when that
company moved to exercise its right of
purchase. After a bit of back-and-forth
between the two parties, a new deal was
struck and everyone finished up happy
(except for Eike Batista, who bought at the
top of the market, but that’s another story).
This looks like the same kind of trick being
pulled but there is an interesting wrinkle
here. The terms of the GLW deal with the
underlying owner is one that relies on the number of ounces under 43-101 multiplied by the
current average for the gold price. Now, if I were the owner of Vetas, I might just be a touch
suspicious that GLW is slow-playing its exploration campaign in order to buy out the property
having put together a low amount of gold for the 43-101, and then doubling down on the
bargain deal by moving to buy while gold was at a low relative price to just a year or so
ago...even six months ago in fact. Chances are that the local Colombian owner feels his being
played for a patsy by GLW and wants a far better deal than the cheque they cut. However, we
also need to consider that four point three million dollars isn’t a dogmeat sum of money, either.
It occurs to me that if the local owner is rejecting a $4.3m cheque for his property, it means
that he’s extremely unworried about the Vetas property falling within the eventual Páramo no-
development zone. After all, we know that local political leaders have already met with the
national government authorities and have a clear idea of where the Páramo boundary is going
to be set and the chances that the local mayor hasn’t spoken to the local landowner about this
are precisely zero. As Angostura is in the same location, it’s another positive sign for the
eventual boundary decision.
The bottom line here is that I’m happy to stick with my spec play in EOM.to, but the way in
which the parties are now fighting over the buyout clause and eventual ownership of GLW’s
Vetas property is a signal that both sides consider it to be worth a lot more than the market is
making out right now. Once we have some definition in the EOM story and the price moves up
(because last week’s shenanigans were another piece of the puzzle that points the way up and
gives me even more confidence that we’re on the right track here) i may eventually rotate some
of the cash into GLW.v (sidebar, a stock that I owned for a few hours when it spun out of the
Galway Gold takeover, but sold almost immediately).
The Copper Basket
After two weeks of 2014 The Copper Basket is showing a 2.92% gain to level stakes.
7

company ticker price 1/1/14 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Lumina Copper LCC.v 6.29 43.81 268.99 6.14 -2.4%
2 NGEx Resources NGQ.to 1.43 168.71 236.19 1.40 -2.1%
3 Reservoir Min. RMC.v 4.97 41.76 233.02 5.58 12.3%
4 Augusta Res AZC.to 1.51 144.41 194.95 1.35 -10.6%
5 Hot Chili Ltd HCH.ax 0.425 333.11 139.91 0.42 -1.2%
6 Copper Fox CUU.v 0.375 402.96 132.98 0.33 -12.0%
7 Nevada Copper NCU.to 1.35 80.5 104.65 1.30 -3.7%
8 NovaCopper NCQ.to 1.60 53.4 87.58 1.64 2.5%
9 Western Copper WRN.to 0.76 93.68 75.88 0.81 6.6%
10 Panoro Minerals PML.v 0.35 204.71 75.74 0.37 5.7%
11 Curis Resources CUV.to 0.57 74.79 44.87 0.60 5.3%
12 Coro Mining COP.to 0.10 160.8 18.49 0.115 15.0%
13 AQM Copper AQM.v 0.11 139.05 17.38 0.125 13.6%
14 Cordoba Min. CDB.v 0.45 31.88 15.94 0.50 11.1%
15 Oracle Mining OMN.to 0.27 49.03 13.73 0.28 3.7%
NB: HCH.ax priced in AUD$, rest CAD$ Portfolio avg 2.92%
It was a generally negative week for exploreco coppers, reflected in the table fairly well. On the
week just three of our names made gains (RMC.v, NCQ.to, COP.to), one was unchanged
(CDB.v) and the other eleven showed losses (not listing them all). The best upmove came from
Coro Mining (COP.to up 15.0%), while there were no double figure percentage droppers, as
most of the losses were of the penny-or-two type. The overall basket lost 1.24% on the week.
As for copper prices, we were again treated to a whole bunch of market analysts and
soothsayers telling us that copper’s now
looking good for 2014 and again, the price
action ignored their calls. Selling pressure
arrived Wednesday and Thursday to push this
futures contract under $3.30/lb, and although
things improved on the back of that weak jobs
report (though an industrial metal should
rallying on crappy jobs report is a function of
the currency in which it’s traded, rather than
the future of industrial life as we know it)
we’re still back inside our longer-term trading
range ($3.20-$3.35) again.
To the copper inventory numbers and world
stocks depleted again. Total world stock levels
dropped by 19.516 metric tonnes (3.9%) to
stand at 480,128t, Of that total, LME
warehouse inventories went down by 15,200t
(4.2%) to 343,8755mt, the now close to
unimportant Comex stocks were down 851t
(5.7%) to 14,064mt, while Shanghai Future
Exchange warehouse numbers were down by 3,465t (2.8%) to 122,189t. So no slowdown of
the warehouse depletion trend yet, though we should tip our hat to January 31st and the
Chinese New Year (we have a horse coming) as a significant date for metals trading in the near
future.
Now for some updates on a few of our component stocks:
NGEx Resources (NGQ.to): A negative week to add to a big pile for NGQ. Clues to its
8

ongoing weakness can be found below in the ‘Regional Politics’ section, as the Caserones
copper project in Chile has hit big permitting problems. If we consider that the Caserones
copper mine...
1) Is owned by Japan’s Pan Pacific Copper, JV partner with NGQ.to at its Vicuña/Los
Helados project.
2) Caserones is just down the road from Los Helados on the Chile side of the border.
3) The issue that’s stopping Caserones from moving forward is its requirement for more
water, which the locals and authorities oppose.
...it’s not that surprising that Los Helados isn’t receiving the type of support it used to have. The
equation is simple, “No Water = No Mine”, so what we may end up with is a Vicuña project
that’s fully dependent on its Argentine side for water supply in order to become a true mine
possibility (which may explain just why NGQ is so keen on exploring and developing the two big
Argentina-side targets for the project, Josemaria and Filo del Sol, and lumping them all together
as a single package instead of separating its big and more advanced Los Helados deposit into a
saleable item by itself).
If your company’s future success is at the mercy of Argentine politicians, then may your
preferred deity help you.
Coro Mining (COP.to): Sheldon Inwentash and Pinetree Capital has decided that they like
COP.to enough to add to their large pile of the
stock. This action looks like the main reason behind
the 15% pop on decent volume last week
The share accumulations look carefully calculated
too, as with the latest additions Pinetree/Sheldon
control 14.9m shares, which is just under the 10%
formal disclosure barrier for Canadian stocks now
that the first tranche of its latest private placement
has closed. We can expect the second part of that
placement to close soon, which will bring COP.to up
to our assumed number of 160.8m shares out (in
table above).
Obviously I’m not the only one looking at “New COP” with different eyes these days.
Reservoir Minerals (RMC.v): RMC had news out this week, but not on its hotpot Timok JV
with FreePort (FCX): Rather, it got on with normal business for a project generator model
company and optioned out another project to another company (3), this time the Sebia-located
Parlozi silver/lead/zinc project to Midlands Minerals (MEX.v). It’s a standard sort of deal in which
RMC gets a free ride on development and MEX.v gets to earn up to 75% of the property over a
staged earn-in period (see the NR for the nitty-gritty).
9

In trading RMC did well, up 35c on the week and although volumes weren’t massive they were
regular and and upward trend is back in play after its end of year slump-ette (a bit of profit
taking then?).
The Low Cost Producer Basket
After 2 weeks of 2013, the Low Cost Producer Basket is showing a 3.63% gain to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/14 Shares out Mkt Cap (Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Freeport FCX 37.74 1040 37.62 36.17 -4.2%
2 Goldcorp GG 21.67 812 18.83 23.19 7.0%
3 Barrick ABX 17.63 1000 18.18 18.18 3.1%
4 Newmont NEM 23.03 497.87 11.85 23.80 3.3%
5 Silver Wheaton SLW 20.19 357.39 7.62 21.33 5.6%
6 Franco Nevada FNV 40.74 147.01 6.19 42.08 3.3%
7 Agnico Eagle AEM 26.38 173.43 4.73 27.26 3.3%
8 Pan American PAAS 11.70 151.41 1.82 12.04 2.9%
9 B2Gold BTG 2.02 651.4 1.37 2.10 4.0%
10 First Majestic AG 9.80 117.02 1.24 10.57 7.9%
all prices in U$, using NYSE ticker prices Portfolio avg 3.63%
Interesting how Freeport (FCX), with its market giant size and emphasis on copper rather than
gold as its main revenue metal, is the only basket stock to be in the red at this early stage of
the year. Meanwhile Goldcorp (GG) has flown into 2014 with a clear lead on its Tier 1 gold
rivals.
In all, seven of our stocks made gains (ABX, GG, SLW, FNV. AEM, PAAS, AG) and three showed
a weekly loss (FCX, NEM, BTG) and with our smallest gold name B2Gold losing out to the
average, signs that big gold is doing better than small gold so far.
Once I get back from being lazy around nice places in the North of Peru, we should have
enough of a sample size to begin using this new section more and getting a decent reading to
compare against our preferred juniors. We’ll also start featuring some of the component
companies in fundies write-ups, in the style of The Copper Basket, though these are all well
covered companies among brokerage firms so there won’t be any direct competition to those or
full scale analyses. What we could do (if you like) is throw a few of the better house reports
your way on these names, though.
Regional politics
Colombia: The environmental permit for exploration story has legs
A few weeks ago we reported on the word out of Colombia that its government was thinking of
imposing full Environmental Impact Permit (EIA) requirements on exploration activities in
Colombia. This weekend the Environment Minister, Luz Sarmiento, confirmed that word on the
street by announcing (4) her department was preparing a bill to be debated in Congress that
would require mining companies to apply for and be granted enviro permission to drill holes, go
trenching etc.
These people are crazy squared. Instead of freeing up the sector they want to promote, the
plan is to bog it down again with yet another layer of time-consuming bureaucracy in the name
of “level playing fields”. If it needed to be stressed, once again we see the innate problems in
dealing with a country that has no history or framework of formal, large scale mining activity.
This is why we stick to Chile, Peru, Mexico, Brazil as our preferred hunting grounds in LatAm,
while others are considered on a case by case level only.
10

Uruguay: Anti-mining groups not cutting much ice (yet)
Anti-mining protesters who are collecting signatures in order to force a national referendum on
mining activity in Uruguay said last week (5) that they had already collected 10,000 signatures
for their cause. Which is fine, but by national law they need to get 260,000 signatures, i.e. 10%
of the eligible voting population by the end of March in order to force the vote. That’s looks a
long way off, but we’ll keep an eye on numbers progress anyway.
Chile: Problems permitting Caserones
Back in March 2013, the Japanese Pan Pacific Copper owned ‘Caserones’ copper mine in the
high Andean region of Chile announced (6) its first production of copper (cathode via its SX-EW
plant, to be exact). However, from then until now the mine has to all intents and purposes been
stopped from ramping into full production, as a report (7) in Chile’s Pulso last week made clear.
The problem revolves around the thorny issue of water. Caserones ran into permitting problems
after its EIA was emitted, because it changed its plans on eventual use of the local water
resource and applied to have more deep wells drilled in order to supply the mine. Chile’s
government people, the Superintendency of the Environment (Superintendencia de Medio
Ambiente, or SMA) slapped 23 infractions on the company because of this, which Pan
Pacific/Caserones attempted to comply with via what’s called a ‘Declaration of Environmental
Impact’ (DIA), which is relatively simple paperwork. In fact they submitted two DIAs but at this
point the opposition to the mine, which in particular includes locals worried about the potential
drainage of water supply to their homes and land, slapped an injunction on the company saying
that they couldn’t just answer the government via DIAs, but they needed to re-do and submit a
full Environmental Impact Study (EIA) that would need a lot more time, and money to
complete, not to mention full public hearings and local voted approval for the changes.
The upshot is that Caserones is still not working. In fact general manager at the mine, Nelson
Pizarro Contador, recently testified to the environmental body SMA the following:
“The Caserones project, from March 12th 2013 started partial operations, focussed on
the start-up of the cathode processing plant, which compared to its operating capacity
will contribute around 13% of the production capacity of Caserones. The current
production is in a range at less than 10% (of operating capacity)”.
In other words, Caserones has its SX-EW plant going ok, but its main concentrate operation is
still at zero due to the legal problems around water. But even that is apparently breaking the
rules, because the SMA replied that Caserones should be at 0% production until the water
permit issues is fully resolved.
Peru: The 2014 Cañariaco circus begins
Last week the first shots of 2014 were fired between the political interests that swirl around
Candente Copper’s (DNT.to) Cañariaco project. As reported on the blog last week (8) Cañaris
locals are about to take up the anti-mine protests once again, with those reports followed by an
interview with the elected community leader (9) who said roughly the same things as in
previous occasions (though more detail in Spanish on that link if you want it) and said bad
things about his regional President of Lambayeque, Humberto Acuña, basically because Acuña
supports the development of Cañaris. Acuña then had his say in a report this weekend (10) and
accused Barrios of having ulterior political ambitions that were motivating his protest, says the
last time he organized a meeting only two people turned up and also that Candente were
welcome in the region as long as the company abides by the law. With all that, the stage is set
for this year’s round of shouting at each other around the project area but with DNT.to rather
short of cash, it might turn out to be a year in which little of real note happens.
Regional Presidential elections in 2014
We’ve done a bit on this and mentioned the more interesting mining countries’ elections, but
today we go more comprehensive and cover all the Presidential elections set for LatAm in 2014,
11

as there are a full seven of them which makes for plenty of regional politicking this year. In
chronological order they are Costa Rica, El Salvador, Panama, Colombia, Uruguay, Brazil and
Bolivia. Of the bunch, the ones that might throw up a political change or advantage for junior
mining investors are El Salvador, Colombia and Uruguay. Here come a few details on each
election.
El Salvador, February 2nd: Along with Costa Rica (see below) this is the first big country
vote of the year and it’s looking like a tight race. To the right we have the ARENA Party
candidate Norman Quijano and to the left the FMLN Party (the current government under
Mauricio Funes) and its candidate, Salvador Sánchez Cerén. Somewhere in the centre is the
‘Unidad’ coalition party candidate Elías Antonio Saca González, known to the world as Tony
Saca. Current polls have Sánchez Cerén (FLMN) at 34% of voter intention leading slightly
against Quijano (ARENA) at 32%, with Saca (Unidad) a somewhat distant third with 16%.
However, El Salvador requires a 50% + 1 vote winner to be its next President, so it’s a virtual
certainty that a second round run-off, dated March 9th, will happen between the two big
parties. Saca role then becomes key and there’s an awful lot of race left in this one between
now and June, when the new President is due sworn in.
El Salvador has been very anti-mining for some time (even before the current Funes FLMN
government) and it’s understood that if current Vice President Salvador Sánchez Cerén wins,
things are bound to continue that way. However, an ARENA victory will be seen, perhaps only
at first or perhaps it will last, as a plus for the potential to re-start projects in the country.
If you fancy a trading tilt at this political risk story and a bet on an ARENA win boosting mining
potential in the country (whether the good feeling lasts or not), one way of playing with plenty
of backstop would be a long in OceanaGold (OGC.to) (OGC.ax), which took over the El Salvador
based Pacific Rim (ex-PMU) last year in a paper-only deal with a $10.2m ticket price. That’s a
small number sat next to OGC’s market cap of $484m as at Friday’s close, so leverage is not
going to be high. But the politically troubled El Dorado project is more than interesting in pure
rock terms and OGC could expect a bonus boost. The other side to this story is that Pacific Rim
has a $315m claim running with the ICSID world tribunal and could win that, or could settle
with the new and potentially friendlier government, thus winning decent cash for OGC.
El Salvador has been off my radar as a mining investment jurisdiction for what seems like
forever, but that might not preclude it as a place for a speculative trade this year, as the fluid
political scenario may offer an opportunity. This is the most interesting vote story for the first
half of 2014 in LatAm. For those of you who want to keep tabs on developments in the election
campaign in the English language, Tim’s El Salvador Blog (11) is recommended
Costa Rica, February 2nd: The other first vote of the year also happens on Feb 2nd but
without beating around the bush this election has less interest for us, the mining investor
and/or regional political opportunity speculator. The main candidates for this election are:
• Johnny Araya representing the current government party, Partido Liberación Nacional
(National Liberation Party), which will be going for a three-peat after having the last
two Presidents Óscar Árias and current Laura Chinchilla)
• José Maria Villalta of the left wing Partido Frente Amplio (Broad Front Party)
• Otto Guevara of the Movimiento Libertario, literally Libertarian Movement, which is kind
of right wing, definitely pro-business, but shouldn’t be confused with the USA definition
of the word libertarian).
There are a couple of other minor candidates in the mix, but the next President will be one of
those three. For most of 2013 the government candidate Araya led the field, but once
campaigning got underway seriously he quickly lost his lead and currently José Maria Villalta
has his nose in front with around 20% to 22% of voter intention, with Araya and Otto Guevara
just behind (both between 15% and 19%, depending on your poll). But make no mistake, this
one will be close and could go to any of the three.
12

Also, as this election needs a winner to get 40%+1 vote to be elected it’s another that will
almost certainly go to a run-off (slated for March 5th) and then the minor places get to be
kingmakers. Again, a lot of water left to flow under this particular bridge. However, Costa Rica’s
population has made it crystal clear to its candidates that supporting mining activity within its
border is a big vote loser, so whoever wins isn’t going to move the needle much on its strong
antipathy towards our industry of focus. This is an election worth watching from the sidelines,
but unless you have your own reasons and ties to Costa Rica, it’s not one for us.
Panama, May 4th: This may turn into a tight race, but at the moment the sitting Martinelli
government candidate, José Domingo Arias, is leading the voter intention polls with between
36% and 39%. After him come the PRD (the Torrijos party) candidate Juan Carlos Navarro
who’s polling around 23-25% and also another Juan Carlos, this time Juan Carlos Varela of the
Partido Panameñista (PPa) (who was Martinelli’s Veep until they had a big fall-out) who is put in
at the same 23% to 25% level. One of these three will be the next President. However, there
are still plenty of undecided voters and once again, the shape of round two will be vital for the
outcome.
On the mining side, the likelihood is that whoever wins the current mix of official approval for
the development of the country’s mining industry, sat by very stodgy bureaucracy and social
protests, will continue. This isn’t a Presidential election that will change the mining scene too
much, so it’s not one that I’m likely to follow too closely on these pages as the year progresses.
Colombia, May 25th: This one is now firming up and current President Juan Manuel Santos is
beginning to look like a racing certainty for re-election. His main rival will be the right wing
Oscar Iván Zuluaga, from ex-President Álvaro Uribe’s camp.The big issue in Colombia is that of
the FARC/government peace talks and as long as they hold together and make (slow) progress,
Santos should get his vote. The thinking is that the FARC now realize the only serious
competition to Santos is Zuluaga and as he would call off all pace talks immediately, it makes
sense for the terrorist group to stay at the negotiating table. What happens once Santos gets
the job again is another talking point.
Brasil, October 5th. Current incumbent Dilma Rousseff should win it. Brazil’s economy is
going through a small slump, but it’s unlikely to be enough to put people off voting for the
popular (and Lula-backed) Dilma once again.
Bolivia, probable vote date October 5th: Evo Morales is red hot favourite. The chances of
Evo not being elected this time around are as close to zero as elections nine months in the
future come. The opposition to his MAS party is fractured, disorganized and prefers to
concentrate its efforts on regional political matters. Meanwhile Bolivia is going through a strong
economic growth period with the benefits being enjoyed by all social strata. Very easy to call.
Uruguay, October 26th: This is the final national vote of the year and it’s certainly one to
watch for our subject, as Uruguay is beginning to get serious about formal mining and it may
well become a leading election issue this time around. Ex-President Tabaré Vázquez, from the
same Frente Amplio (the centre-left “Broad Front” alliance) party as current President Mujica, is
currently leading most opinion polls but it’s still very much the uncertain panorama at the
moment, with main candidates still jockeying for position. By way of opposition, the most likely
figure is Jorge Larrañaga of the National Party (Partido Nacional).
Market Watching
Tognetti and Mirasol (MRZ.v)
John Tognetti, chair and central figure at Haywood Securities, has been a long-time sponsor
and proponent of Mirasol Resources (MRZ.v) and a big owner of company shares. He’s been
13

quiet over the stock for a while but the buying has started again, as in December 2013 he
added 121,000 shares to his pile while last week added a very chunky 2.4m more at a 90c buy
price (12). This was enough to get a regulatory letter sent to SEDAR, as he now owns 7.953m
shares of MRZ, which is 24.96% of its 44.155m shares outstanding.
For what it’s worth MRZ is a stock that Brent Cook also likes, due previously to its good
Argentina project that’s now been bought into by Coeur and now for its Chilean exploration
project potential, as well as its brains trust. As for me, over the years I’ve looked at it a few
times and always thought it expensive for what it was, particularly as it was dependent on
stability in Argentina for its success, though admittedly I didn’t look at it at the same time as
Cook, who got in very cheaply before the Joaquin project in Argentina took off and became a
serious discovery (that’s the advantage Brent Cook as an geologist who visits these projects
with an experienced explorationists’s eye can bring to the table, that’s not something a guy like
me will ever pretend to emulate). At its current ~$41m market cap, reasonable burn and a lot
of treasury cash (a current IKN estimated working cap of $31m, or 70c per share) made up of
roughly half cash and roughly half shares in Coeur (CDE)) this is one of those stocks with plenty
of fundamental backbone that will stop its share price from dropping much further, though
some downside is possible today, and its moderate burn plus any further price weakness in CDE
means longer term downside is possible. I’m neutral on MRZ, you may want to look further.
Excellon Resources (EXN.to) may be in serious trouble
The aftermath of the accident on Thursday (sadly, IKN reported it to the English speaking world
before the mining company (13), which is a very poor show) may not be the last word in the
story and Excellon Resources’ (EXN.to) stock price may be affected more than the usual way in
which fatal accidents affect companies working in Mexico, i.e. virtually zero. That’s because big
miners’ union, in English “The Mine, Metal and Steel Workers Union” (in Spanish it’s the very
long-named “Sindicato Nacional de Trabajadores Mineros, Metalúrgicos, Siderúrgicos y Similares
de la República Mexicana”, acronym SNTMMSSRM, which usually goes by the simple name “Los
Mineros”), has jumped on the case and spoken of its previous complaint of bad health and
safety practices at the mine. Jorge Luis Mora, head of the local section of the SNTMMSSRM,
told press (14) that his union had been reporting irregularities at the mine for the last two years
to the State Director of Safety, Ecology and Hygene which include old and decrepit machinery,
electric cables being used in bad state of repair, cables that sit in water currents and a
explosives storage space that has high tension electricity cables running right through it. Here’s
a quote on the union’s opinion of the conditions of work at the mine:
“Our mining colleagues died due to burns caused by an electrical discharge that occurred due to
the negligence of the company, which obliges our mining colleagues to work in sub-human
conditions without the slightest regard for the hygiene and safety measures that must be
adopted in the mining industry.”
Here’s another quote from an English language report (15) on the accident:
“...according to the union, the short-circuit was “caused by a lack of supervision, non-
existent safety measures and the scant interest in such matters on the part of the
company” and the municipal, state and federal governments.
The union called on federal authorities to “stop the constant violations” by Excellon
Resources, a company that for years has committed “systematic violations” against
“workers’ rights in terms of hygiene, safety and freedom of association.”
As this five day chart shows, EXN was down at the open on Friday but recovered during the day
and all on low volumes. The market assumption seems to be that there’s no company-changing
news here, but this might turn into a more serious moment for the company (there’s a whole
back-story about its bad blood with landowner neighbours, too) and we may see EXN revisit the
sub-Loonie prices seen in November if Mexico decides to make a test case of this accident and
come down harder than expected.
14

Under the circumstances, this is very possible. The mine is currently closed for inspection from
the authorities and the normal pattern in these things is to see it re-open withing a day or
three. Next week’s news on whether that happens as per normal schedule is worth monitoring
and a shorting opportunity is in the cards for those with lend access to Canadian listed stocks
(in other words, the same kind of punctual shorting opportunity situation as South American
Silver (SAC.to) a few weeks ago).
The 4q13 production results begin in earnest
We’ve had a few (Endeavour Silver (EDR.to) (EXK) tends to be one of the first out of the box
and we saw that one last Thursday (16)) but next week and the week after will bring the rump
of the 4q13 production numbers from the juniors and mid-tiers. I’m watching out for Gold
Resource Corp (GORO) as the plan is to see whether it can get a pop on the promo and if so,
short the brute at something above $5. I’m also particularly interested in the RIO.to numbers
and whether I was wrong to sell FVI.to last week, but any indication of costs from any of the
sector companies will be particularly useful.
Conclusion
IKN245 is done, we end with bullet points:
• I’m around the house tomorrow Monday and leaving on a jet plane early Tuesday
(though I do know when I’ll be back again) so will have time to monitor the market,
post a bit etc. But from Tuesday until next Monday, your author is off grid (happy to
say, looking forward to the break) and the only electronic device that will pass these
hands is a small family snapshot camera. From Monday 20th onwards we’re still
travelling, but I will be checking market close prices and e-mails in the evenings.
• I’ll also be fishing for the addition to Dalradian (DNA.to) tomorrow, but if I don’t get an
average down price (60c or below suits) I’ll leave a couple of bids in the system, as
noted above.
• As for gold last week (which got nary a mention) it’s good to see it higher, but I’m yet
to be convinced that anything has changed so for the moment at least, assume we’re in
a trading range rather than a new trend upwards. As noted on the blog at one point
last week, if gold can beat U$1,280/oz then I’ll pay a lot more attention. Also, any rally
being led by stocks such as Aurcana (AUN.v up 40% in the last 10 days) and
International Tower Hill (ITH.to up 31% in the last ten days) isn’t one that has long-
term fundamental value analysis at heart, it’s more likely built for casino suckers.
• The Colombian Páramo story is getting interesting, even though it’s dragging on an
15

annoyingly and inordinately long time. The GLW events point to a positive outcome for
the specific Vetas municipality and that’s another positive sign for our trade.
• Coro Mining (COP.to) is still very much on the shortlist, but I’ve decided to take these
days away to have a good think about both it and the way in which I’d like to position
my portfolio for the year to come.
• Rio Alto is due a very good week, not just the type of good one we’ve seen on this
rebound. Production numbers should be with us this week and may provide the
necessary spark. It’s still crazycheap at anything under $2.
The top long-term picks are Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) and Minera IRL (IRL.to). I thank
you in advance for any feedback. Flash updates will be sent promptly if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Otto
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/galway-gold-announces-status-exercise-161700186.html
(2) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/galway-gold-announces-status-exercise-161700186.html
(3) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/reservoir-minerals-options-parlozi-lead-221912330.html
(4) http://noticias.lainformacion.com/economia-negocios-y-finanzas/mineria/colombia-estudia-imponer-licencias-
ambientales-para-la-exploracion-minera_DM0LUNcwMsg0UVWnt0SOx4/
(5) http://www.lr21.com.uy/comunidad/1152444-10-000-firmas-recolectadas-impedir-megamineria-cielo-abierto-uruguay
(6) http://www.nuevamineria.com/revista/2013/03/15/caserones-pone-en-marcha-su-unidad-de-catodos/
(7) http://www.pulso.cl/noticia/empresa-mercado/empresa/2014/01/11-36491-9-la-mina-lista-para-partir-que-no-puede-
hacerlo-por-conflicto-ambiental.shtml
(8) http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2014/01/good-to-see-candente-copper-dntto.html
(9) http://www.larepublica.pe/11-01-2014/acuna-cristobal-barrios-tiene-intereses-politicos-y-pretende-ser-alcalde
(10) http://www.larepublica.pe/11-01-2014/acuna-cristobal-barrios-tiene-intereses-politicos-y-pretende-ser-alcalde
(11) http://luterano.blogspot.com/
16

(12) http://www.canadianinsider.com/node/7?ticker=MRZ
(13) http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2014/01/excellon-exnto-on-subject-of-dead-miners.html
(14) http://www.elsiglodetorreon.com.mx/noticia/951698.saltan-las-anomalias-de-la-platosa.html
(15) http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=1466738&CategoryId=14091&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook
(16) http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2014/01/endeavour-silver-edrto-exk-4q13.html
Appendix 1: Flash update dated Tuesday January 7th 2014
Hi there, Tuesday post-open.
Just the quickest of notes to say that as posited in IKN244, I'm taking the modest but quickly generated profit in the
Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) (FSM) trading position. It may go higher from here, it may not. The point of my sale is more about
sticking to my own plan than trying to guess the next move in silver, gold and the dependent stocks.
Hope you're having a pleasant week.
Best, O
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2013
Closed in 2013 closed close price
USA Graphite USGT feb'13 U$0.93 08-jan-13 U$0.17 81.7% short tgt made/trade closed
Lachlan Star LSA.to feb'13 C$1.50 30-sep-12 C$0.95 -36.7% sold to reduce port risk
United Silver USC.to mar'13 C$0.21 28-oct-12 C$0.095 -54.8% small Ag sector trade, failed
Aurcana Corp AUN.v apr'13 C$1.07 11-nov-12 C$0.55 -48.6% closed on poor YE results
Gold Res Corp GORO apr'13 U$14.11 25-jan-13 U$9.38 33.5% short tgt made/trade closed
Marlin Gold MLN.v apr'13 C$0.075 10-feb-13 C$0.065 -13.3% closed trade
Bear Creek BCM.v may'13 C$2.58 01-apr-13 C$2.40 -7.0% near-term, time ran out
Lupaka Gold LPK.to may'13 C$1.12 23-oct-11 C$0.32 -71.4% towel thrown in
Tahoe Resources TAHO may'13 U$18.62 08-apr-13 U$14.70 21.1% took profit on ST short
OceanaGold OGC.to jun'13 C$3.03 16-sep-12 C$1.18 -61.1% sold on gold drop
IMPACT Silver IPT.v jun'13 C$1.14 13-jan-13 C$0.62 -45.6% sold on silver drop
Duran Ventures DRV.v jun'13 C$0.045 10-may-13 C$0.025 -44.4% ST trade never worked
Plata Latina PLA.v jun'13 C$0.79 10-apr-12 C$0.13 -83.5% closed
Bellhaven BHV.v jun'13 C$0.065 03-jun-13 C$0.12 84.6% closed ST trade
B2Gold BTO.to aug'13 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.44 12.1% sold 1/2 to raise cash
Colossus Min. CSI.to aug'13 C$0.72 24-jul-13 C$0.79 9.7% closed thru nerves on future
Pretium Res PVG.to aug'13 C$8.20 11-jun-13 C$10.14 23.7% closed to raise cash
Bear Creek BCM.v sep'13 C$2.06 30-may-13 C$2.20 6.8% sold on pol risk decision
MAG Silver MVG oct'13 U$7.00 12-sep-13 U$5.62 19.6% near-term short
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'13 U$9.52 03-may-13 U$4.98 47.7% short tgt made, covered
AQM Copper AQM.v oct'13 C$0.31 16-oct-11 C$0.125 -59.7% closed failed trade
First Majestic AG nov'13 U$11.51 07-nov-13 U$10.50 8.8% v near term short, closed
Fortuna Silver FSM nov'13 U$4.00 07-nov-13 U$3.68 8.0% v near term short, closed
Primero PPP nov'13 U$5.70 07-nov-13 U$5.75 -0.9% v near term short, closed
Starcore Intl SAM.to nov'13 C$0.235 08-sep-13 C$0.17 -27.7% ST trade didn't work sm loss
B2Gold BTO.to dec'13 C$2.22 28-nov-12 C$2.16 -2.7% closed ST trade to raise cash
17

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2012
Closed in 2012 closed close PPS
Soltoro SOL.v jan'12 C$0.87 07-nov-11 C$0.94 8.0% cash moved to BCM.v
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to feb'12 C$0.84 13-oct-10 C$0.98 16.7% trade closed on ELG.v offer
Minefinders MFN feb'12 U$11.68 17-nov-11 U$14.80 26.7% target made, trade closed
Iron Creek IRN.v mar'12 C$0.58 26-sep-10 C$0.31 -46.6% time up on small bad trade
U.S. Silver USA.to apr'12 C$2.18 15-mar-12 C$1.86 -14.7% ST trade no good, cut loss
Augusta Res. AZC.to may'12 C$3.10 29-ene-12 C$2.07 -33.2% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Bellhaven BHV.v may'12 C$0.50 22-sep-10 C$0.28 -44.0% new mgmt not impressive
Zincore Metals ZNC.to may'12 C$0.325 29-jul-11 C$0.17 -47.7% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Soltoro SOL.v may'12 C$0.70 18-mar-11 C$0.41 -41.4% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
U.S. Silver USA.to aug'12 C$1.78 27-jul-12 C$1.36 -23.6% fail ST trade close pre split
Estrella Gold EST.v aug'12 C$0.91 27-mar-11 C$0.14 -84.6% Closed on port realignment
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'12 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.32 397.2% sell call $6.17/ Mar25
Strait Minerals SRD.v oct'12 C$0.125 09-dic-11 C$0.12 -4.0% closing coverage til FY13
Sunward Res SWD.to oct'12 C$1.47 13-mar-11 C$1.21 -17.7% sold, took loss
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'12 U$21.47 09-sep-12 U$17.40 19.0% Short trade closed
Yellowhead Min. YMI.to nov'12 C$1.00 01-abr-12 C$0.63 -37.0% sold, took loss
Primero Mining PPP nov'12 U$7.26 07-oct-12 U$6.73 7.3% Short trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v nov'12 C$3.38 07-nov-11 C$3.72 10.1% Took small profit
Vena Resources VEM.to dec'12 C$0.70 31-may-09 C$0.18 -74.3% Failed trade (caps F)
Galway Res GWY.v dec'12 C$2.19 24-nov-12 C$2.30 5.0% closed good ST arb trade
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2011
Closed in 2011 closed close PPS
Sunward Res SWD.v jan'11 C$1.05 21-nov-10 C$1.63 55.2% target made, trade closed
Serengeti Res SIR.v mar'11 C$0.245 05-dec-10 C$0.285 16.3% sold pre-tgt, ST trade fail
Fronteer Gold FRG apr'11 U$2.37 03-may-09 U$15.24 543.0% buyout, trade closed
Minefinders MFN apr'11 U$9.09 07-nov-10 U$16.89 85.8% target made, trade closed
Metalline Min. MMG may'11 U$1.04 26-jan-11 U$0.89 -14.4% exit, resource disappointed
Peregrine Met PGM.to jul'11 C$0.87 06-mar-11 C$2.60 198.9% buyout offer, closed
Dynasty Metals DMM.to jul'11 C$4.20 03-may-09 C$2.85 -32.1% Sold. Fail. Move on.
Aura Silver AUU.v aug'11 C$0.22 13-oct-10 C$0.16 -36.4% Bad pick. Take loss
U.S. Silver USA.v aug'11 C$0.52 26-jan-11 C$0.71 36.5% closed to make room
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'11 C$2.80 12-may-11 C$4.27 52.5% target made, trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v sep'11 C$3.80 27-may-11 C$4.17 9.7% macro sell call victim
Minefinders MFN sep'11 U$14.70 10-aug-11 U$15.15 3.1% macro sell call victim
Great Panther GPR.to sep'11 C$3.03 22-aug-11 C$2.64 -12.9% macro sell call victim
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'11 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.36 400.9% sold 20%, macro sell call
Focus Ventures FCV.v nov'11 C$0.40 20-apr-10 C$0.20 -50.0% cut losses, bad trade
Regulus Res. REG.v dec'11 C$1.17 14-aug-11 C$0.52 -55.6% cut on news of poor 43-101
2009 and 2010 closed positions in appendices below
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2010
Closed in 2010 closed close PPS
B2Gold Corp BTO.to Jan'10 C$0.88 08-nov-09 C$1.49 68.2% target made, trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v Jan'10 C$0.18 23-aug-09 C$0.40 122.2% target made, trade closed
MAG Silver MVG mar'10 U$5.60 23-nov-09 U$7.28 30.0% closed in pdac week
Riverside Res RRI.v mar'10 C$0.435 20-sep-09 C$0.60 37.9% closed in pdac week
Amarillo Gold AGC.v mar'10 C$0.81 31-may-09 C$0.70 -13.6% closed in pdac week
B2Gold Corp BTO.to apr'10 C$1.24 18-feb-10 C$1.50 21.0% target made, trade closed
Lumina Copper LCC.v apr'10 C$0.84 14-jun-09 C$1.55 51.2% total position now sold
Troy Resources TRY.to may'10 C$1.10 03-may-09 C$2.25 104.5% sold on negative results
AuEx Ventures XAU.to may'10 C$2.51 24-may-09 C$3.38 34.7% trade closed
Nevada Copper NCU.to jun'10 C$3.27 14-mar-10 C$2.03 -37.9% need to lower Cu exposure
Carpathian Gold CPN.to jun'10 C$0.39 14-mar-10 C$0.35 -10.3% too exposed to cap raising
Amerix PM Corp APM.v jun'10 C$0.065 08-nov-09 C$0.05 -23.1% victim of macro bear
Antares Minerals ANM.v jun'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$2.10 47.9% sold half
Vena Resources VEM.to jun'10 C$0.37 31-may-09 C$0.23 -37.8% sold half
Minera Andes MAI.to sep'10 C$0.75 28-jul-10 C$0.95 26.7% ST trade closed
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to sep'10 C$0.52 01-aug-10 C$0.75 44.2% target made, trade closed
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'10 C$1.45 25-may-10 C$2.01 34.5% target made, trade closed
Blue Sky Uran BSK.v oct'10 C$0.41 19-may-10 C$0.22 -46.3% v small v bad trade closed
Dia Bras Expl DIB.v oct'10 C$0.14 30-aug-09 C$0.35 150.0% target made, trade closed
S. Amer. Silver SAC.to nov'10 C$1.38 24-oct-10 C$1.60 -15.9% loss on short, small fail
Ventana Gold VEN.to nov'10 C$7.92 27-jun-10 C$13.51 70.6% trade closed on buyout
Lumina Copper LCC.v nov'10 C$1.42 11-aug-10 C$3.65 157.0% trade closed
Antares Minerals ANM.v dec'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$8.40 491.5% trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.v dec'10 C$0.69 23-mar-10 C$2.16 213.0% trade closed
Coro Mining COP.to dec'10 C$0.585 03-oct-10 C$1.24 112.0% target made, trade closed
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2009
Closed positions closed closing PPS
Cardero Res CDY/CDU.to May'09 U$1.20 03-May-09 U$0.87 -27.5% sold on negative news
Eastmain Res. ER.to May'09 C$1.04 06-May-09 C$1.315 26.4% trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v May'09 C$0.165 03-May-09 C$0.235 42.4% trade closed
Latin Amer Min. LAT.v May'09 C$0.12 03-May-09 C$0.158 29.2% trade closed
Aquiline Res. AQI.to July'09 C$2.03 16-Jun-09 C$1.68 -17.2% took loss, bad timing
Chariot Resources CHD.to Aug'09 C$0.20 12-Jul-09 C$0.415 107.5% trade closed
Castle Gold CSG.v Sep'09 C$0.64 02-Aug-09 C$0.60 -6.3% ST trade didn't work out
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to Sep'09 C$2.30 12-May-09 C$4.50 95.7% profit taken
Los Andes Copper LA.v Sep'09 C$0.09 21-Jun-09 C$0.09 0% trade closed
Pediment Gold PEZ.to Oct'09 C$0.80 09-Aug-09 C$1.00 25.0% trade closed
Minera Andes MAI.to Oct'09 C$0.68 03-May-09 C$0.71 4.4% too much bad news
Dynasty Metals DMM.to Nov'09 C$4.18 03-May-09 C$6.01 43.8% half sold
Rusoro Mining RML.v Nov'09 C$0.55 03-May-09 C$0.57 3.6% underperformed
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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