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The IKN Weekly
Week 241, December 15th 2013
Contents
This Week: Coming out swinging, Shaking the tree, The “trouble with 43-101” debate
continues, Fedwatch.
Fundamental Analysis: Pretium Resources (PVG) (PVG.to): The simple reason to be short.
Stocks to Follow: Overview, B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG), Rio Alto (RIO.to) (RIOM), Eco Oro
Minerals (EOM.to), Dalradian Resources (DNA.to), Focus Ventures (FCV.v), Tahoe Resources
(TAHO) (THO.to), Minera IRL (IRL.to) (MIRL.L).
Copper Basket: Overview, Changes to the Copper Basket in 2014, Augusta Resources
(AZC.to) (AZC), Curis Resources (CUV.to), Panoro (PML.v).
The Lottery Ticket Basket: Overview, Tango Gold (TGV.v), Marlin Gold (MLN.to).
Regional Politics: Argentina: Barrick cuts 1,500 jobs at Pascua Lama Argentina, Uruguay:
More on the rising level of debate over mining activity, Mexico Oaxaca: The two anti-mine
protesters to Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) (FSM) San José mine, located and being held by organized
crime police.
Market Watching: The large cap basket for 2014: An alternative name by popular demand,
South American Silver (SAC.to): An obvious short (for those who can), Fortuna Silver (FVI.to)
(FSM) now a possible trade buy, Focus Ventures (FCV.v): Price and company action converging,
The Radius Gold (RDU.v) B2Gold (BTO.to) arbitrage opportunity.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Coming out swinging
The theme of this week’s edition is somewhat different to that of previous weeks. Along with
highlighting my conviction about the short potential of Pretium, the Market Watching section is
set aside for three near-term trading ideas, three long (FVI.to, FCV.v, RDU.v) and one short
(SAC.to). Along with that, we’re putting Coro Mining (COP.to) back on the copper basket radar
because that’s suddenly looking far more attractive.
In short, I’m feeling more militant about this market and it’s time to be a little more pushy with
trading ideas. This stems from a) the look of oversold and ready for rebound in the market b)
the desire to offer up a few more proactive ideas from which you, the reader, can pick and
choose and c) the fact that in recent weeks I’ve been far too wishy-washy and indecisive about
this market. There are trades out there and even though they’re near-term ones with more
modest targets, they’re worthy of a bit of work, spotlight and feature here in the Weekly. It’s
also directly related to the next section of this week’s intro (with thanks due to Jim).
Shaking the tree
This is absolutely the last time the subject of unsubscriptions and will be mentioned, because I
get the strong feeling the repetitions are getting boring to read and the point has been made to
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the Nth degree. So just two mails from readers get shared today to give an idea of the
feedback from last week (which included three people unsubbing); the first one from AW is just
the kind of thing I wanted to encourage:
I thought I should write to say that after reading the last IKN, I decided I
should cancel my subscription.
As I hope I've said to you before, I think IKN is the best news service out there
for the mining sector; I find it very amusing, its clearly full of great ideas and
the detail makes everything else look shoddy.
Although I don't think its expensive at all for what it is, because I don't actively
trade the junior mining sector, I don't think I can justify the monthly outlay.
Wishing you all the best, AW
The fact that it includes a little ego-massage was quite nice, too ☺. Meanwhile “Jim in Tucson”
(I’m sure he won’t mind me using his first name and location) also mailed in with this one:
You're correct I (everyone) should blow you off because you haven had a
profitable idea in two years now. You're such a Limey Prick you don't even
reply to my insults and or encouragements. To busy watching soccer and
whining about peasants. The name of game is PROFIT!!! WTF did you go to
biz school?? Sick and tired or your BS analysis that yields nada. Find
something that makes money. If this is too exhausting for your tiny brain then
give everyone their money back and admit you are a fraud. Being serious now
kid. PUT UP OR SHUT UP. No more pussy ass excuses.
Semper Fi
Jim in Tucson
It should be pointed out that 1) Jim hasn’t unsubscribed ☺ and 2) he and I go back quite a
way. So thanks man, I needed that kick up the butt and it was well-delivered. Also addressing
him directly, I didn’t reply to your last couple of mails because there’s often nothing possible
left to say; as is often the case, your logic and arguments are watertight and undeniable.
The “trouble with 43-101” debate continues
The most interesting debate about 43-101, its usefulness, lack of worth, reliability or otherwise,
started with comments made by Clive Johnson of B2Gold and Joseph Conway of Primero (P.to)
at a mining conference round table last week, were picked up on by an “old timer P.Geo” and
then “reader W” of IKN and last week continued to gather debating steam through a ping-pong
of posts and reports on IKN and on Mineweb (latest episode here (8)). There’s more to come in
this debate as well, so watch the blog tomorrow Monday for the next expert to step up and
make their case, this time in strong defence of the current system (just waiting for the writer to
provide final copy).
Since adding my insignificant tuppence worth last weekend I’ve been deliberately staying out of
the way in the debate because I want to see how far it can travel through the words of mining
pros that have to either deal first-hand with 43-101, regulate 43-101 or work under the 43-101
rules, rather than people such as I, whose interactions with the system are passive. It’s clear
enough from the amount of feedback received that the whole subject has touched a raw nerve
(most of the mails are not for public display, sadly) which, as one of the protagonists “W”
mentioned to me yesterday, may well have been the reason that Johnson and Conway
broached the subject to begin with. So before I throw in any more op-ed, I’m good about
seeing how far the conversation can go...and tomorrow’s installment is likely to add fuel to the
fire ☺.
Fedwatch
Wednesday lunchtime is the main macro event of the week, with the Fed’s will-they-or-won’t-
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they-taper saga having its next key moment and then straight afterwards (and probably just as
important as the official Fed communique this time) Bernanke is scheduled to give a presser.
How much of a “no taper today” is baked into the current market? That’s the biggest single
issue and the chances are that clues as to when the taper begins (March 14? Earlier? Even
‘never’ as some suggest) are going to be bigger market movers than the no change expected at
this particular FOMC, for the headline at least.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Pretium Resources (PVG) (PVG.to): The simple reason to be short
Today I want to use the Fundamentals space of the Weekly to expand somewhat on the
argument behind shorting Pretium Resources (PVG) (PVG.to). Friday morning brought the final
results from the PVG bulk testing and as expected by most of the market, the last 2,212 tonnes
processed brought forth 1,650 oz gold at an average recovered grade of 23.2 g/t.
What happened after that on Friday had me knocking my hand away from the buy switch (well,
the short switch, same thing really) as witnessed later on the blog (2) in a slightly cryptic
manner, as in the US pre-market PVG traded as high as U$6.70 before a dose of realism set in.
These numbers may have surprised some but 1) most of the market were expecting this type of
result to put the whole resource from the bulk at-or-around 6k oz and 2) they still don’t change
a thing and the serious concerns raised by Strathcona (and shared by your author) have not
been addressed by these numbers. Therefore the opening pop was greeted by opportunistic
traders selling and in the end, PVG was hardly changed from the previous day. This, I believe,
was the most logical reaction to the whole bulk sample news and now that the events are
behind us, I expect PVG to move lower.
Here’s the updated table that was also featured on the blog early Friday morning (3):
PVG: VOK Bulk sample results
date tonnes processed gold recovered (oz) avg oz/t reported avg g/t
22-oct 2167 281 0.13 4.03
22-nov 8090 4215 0.52 16.20
diff between 5923 3934 0.66 20.66
13-dec 10302 5865 0.57 17.71
diff between 2212 1650 0.75 23.20
source: PVG data, IKN calcs
We now know the results of the bulk sample program, which was designed by its proponents
(PVG and Snowden) to test gold content at VOK and be representative of the whole deposit.
The bulk sample expected to yield around 4,000 ounces of gold but in the end gave up 5,865
oz, which is better, right? Not necessarily, so today we walk through the basics of the
previously mooted “too good to be true” argument that casts doubt over the results obtained.
We go step-by-step on several issues that need to be covered and then tied together to get the
bigger picture:
1) Those critical of the bulk sample and its results, people that include myself and far more
importantly Strathcona who resigned from the project in order to protect their weighty
reputation, have pointed out that the bulk sample taken is unlikely to be a true representation
of the whole because too much seems to have been taken from the area very close to or
including the recently discovered Cleopatra vein.
2) To put that into context, the VOK deposit current claims a probable reserve of 15.1m tonnes
grading 13.1 g/t gold for 6.6m oz of probable reserve (along with 5.3m oz of silver kicker, but
3

this is all about the gold, folks).
3) The bulk sample was 10,000 tonnes. In other words, just 0.066% of the reserve as stands.
That kind of tiny sample when compared to a much larger whole may be statistically applicable
in other situations, but doubt has to be cast on VOK and its extreme high grading thin veins
and low grading stockwork (which is basically waste). Where you can use a 0.066% sample
with reasonable accuracy is a public opinion poll (2,000 people sampled gives a good idea of
the opinions of a 30m population country), because the questions are normally of an up/down
variety (“Do you approve or disapprove of the President?”), with simple parameters and
choices. In mining, a small sample can give a good idea of a larger whole in big, uniform
grading mineralized systems, such as porphyry copper deposits (for just one example). But a
grade that fluctuates wildly in a deposit such as VOK? This is a tiny sample and in my view (and
that of many other people, often with far more professional qualifications than I) is not
something that inspires the type of confidence that Robert Quartermain, PVG and Snowden are
trying to instill in it.
4) At this point, we need to make mention of the method used to create this “probable
reserve”, which in the case of the ultra-high grading vein areas (the critical part of VOK) was
multiple indicator kriging (for a reasonably simple and plain English intro to the subject, this
paper (4) was recommended to me and it’s now recommended to you; for the record I read
and understood enough to be now dangerous about the subject). The long story short,
indicator kriging and/or multiple indicator kriging is a mathematical method for arriving at a
resource estimate and although very useful in many situations, gets mountains of criticism for
its potential inaccuracy when used to deal with a deposit that has large low grading areas
interspersed with small high grading areas; precisely the situation we have at VOK. In the
words of one highly experienced and industry-renowned geologist, written to your author on
November 26th just after the second bulk sample result was published by PVG and sent the
stock higher, “And relying solely on mathematics (indicator kriging) as a proxy for geology does
not work”. Are we clear on that? Top, third party geols say the method used to arrive at the
VOK reserve does not work. The math is not a proxy for real geology.
5) Now for another piece in the puzzle. Here is the definition of a probable mineral reserve
according to CIM (5), the people behind 43-101. Recall that a VOK’s gold is called a probable
mineral reserve.
A “Probable Mineral Reserve” is the economically mineable part of an Indicated and, in
some circumstances, a Measured Mineral Resource demonstrated by at least a
Preliminary Feasibility Study. This Study must include adequate information on
mining, processing, metallurgical, economic, and other relevant factors that
demonstrate, at the time of reporting, that economic extraction can be justified.
Now, to understand a little more, we now read up on how a QP arrives at an indicated resource
(note that a probable reserve is “the economically mineable part” of an indicated resource).
Here’s that passage from the CIM literature and I’ve taken the liberty of bold-typing one section
of the definition:
Mineralization may be classified as an Indicated Mineral Resource by the Qualified
Person when the nature, quality, quantity and distribution of data are such as to
allow confident interpretation of the geological framework and to reasonably
assume the continuity of mineralization. The Qualified Person must recognize the
importance of the Indicated Mineral Resource category to the advancement of the
feasibility of the project. An Indicated Mineral Resource estimate is of sufficient quality
to support a Preliminary Feasibility Study which can serve as the basis for major
development decisions
We got that? VOK’s reserve is what it is because the person who did the calculation is confident
of their interpretation of the rocks. This is why mining companies employ QPs of course; they’re
experts and their subjective view is supposed to bring more confidence to the overall contents
of a deposit than that of a layman such as I. Quite right too.
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So let’s re-cap on the several issues we’ve touched upon so far.
• We have a probable reserve at VOK calculated using a method that gets no end of
criticism from the industry.
• However it’s a reserve calculation that allows “confident interpretation of the geological
framework”, according to the QP who signed off on it.
• That same QP selects a tiny 0.066% portion of VOK to back up his claims and calls it
representative of the much larger whole.
• He than predicts, according to the very same confident interpretation of the reserve
calculation and the same methodology, that the 10,000 tonne representative bulk
sample chosen holds 4,000 ounces of gold.
• In fact, his prediction is out by 46.6%. It matters not whether the prediction was
pitched 46.6% too high or, as is the case, fell short by 46.6%. His model and opinion
are that 1) VOK has its probable reserve with the size and grade estimated to his own
confidence and 2) he says the bulk sample was representative of his model. So tell me,
how can you have a confident interpretation after missing your model estimate by
nearly half?
And I’d really, but really like to know the answer to that last question, because if you can tell
me then I’ll close both my mouth and my short on PVG, once and for all. Therefore it gets
repeated for emphasis:
How can you have a confident interpretation of the VOK deposit if
your model predicts a number which misses by nearly half?
I want to make it clear that I’m not saying that there’s no gold at VOK, because there obviously
is gold there. What’s more, those ultra-high grading veins are chock full of the stuff, which was
proved to nearly everybody’s satisfaction by the 10,000t bulk sample taken from the deposit.
What I’m saying is there are serious problems with the claim that the 10,000t sample taken
from VOK, just 0.066% of the whole, is representative of the larger deposit. Something is
wrong and it’s either the model of the probable reserve which is way out, or the bulk sample is
not representative of the whole, or even both are wrong.
There is no logical way, that 1) the bulk sample is representative and 2) the
probable reserve number is correct. Those two logically cannot stand next to each
other, period. That doesn’t mean there’s no gold at VOK (there is), it means that the
methodology that’s been used to calculate the reserve is wrong in at least one place (quite
possibly two) and is therefore unreliable. It means that we don’t know how much gold there is
in VOK. Simple reasoning (hence the title of this piece) states that either 1) the reserve is
unreliable or 2) the bulk sample is unreliable or 3) both are unreliable, because the methods
used to calculate them are clearly unreliable. Whatever the reality may be, we’re getting smoke
blown in our eyes by Pretium Resources and that’s why I’m short this stock.
At this point it seems the most likely conclusion to draw is that the bulk sample is unreliable.
That would means the whole exercise in mining and processing that 10,000 tonnes was a big
waste of time (except for recovering ~$7.3m worth of gold, which isn’t to be sniffed at I
suppose). However, that also means that PVG’s and Snowden’s constant claims that the bulk
sample is representative and can be trusted are just so much hot air. It also means that all the
suspicions that the market has (your author very much included) that the bulk sample was
“overly selected” (let’s say, all diplomatically like) and included too much of the mineralization
around the Cleopatra vein. However, the worst case is much worse, because if it turns out the
reserve calculation is wrong there’s a lot more egg to place on faces of all concerned and the
5

whole project will have to go back to the drawing board.
To round off and on a slightly different subject, let’s not forget that financing is still an issue at
PVG.
100 PVG: Working Capital per qtr
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
6
01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 tse31q4
source company filings, IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
Maybe Mr Quartermain was waiting for the last of the bulk sample before running a placement,
or maybe he has enough tucked away to get into 1q14 (the numbers suggest that is true, but
tight). But the period in which this company will have to raise money, one way or another, is
fast approaching us.
Stocks to Follow
A rebound week for the list, with nine of the 13 positions we held this time last week making
upmoves (not listing them all), one staying unchanged (NEI.v), just three losing ground (TAHO
short, PVG short, DAR.v) and when two of those three losers are the short hedges which
registered very modest losses, that’s not so bad either. Best of the bunch were the double
figure percentage moves in Minera IRL (IRL.to up 16.7%), Eco Oro (EOM.to up 16.7%) and
Focus Ventures (FCV.v up 15.2%), plus a welcome sidebar mention to the rebound that Rio Alto
(RIO.to up 10c or 7.3%) put in, thanks mostly to its decent and potentially significant rally on
Friday.
With the disposal of the small trading position in B2Gold we now have 12 open positions on our
‘Stocks to Follow’ list, three less than our self-imposed maximum. Twelve show red, but a
glimmer of light now comes from Focus Ventures, in green at last.

Company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
Top Picks
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to str buy C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$1.47 -36.1% best LT value
Minera IRL IRL.to hold C$0.35 22-jul-12 C$0.175 -50.0% top pick called at 24c
Longs
B2Gold BTO.to hold C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$2.23 -27.4% sold 1/2, rest rides. Quality
Lara Expl. LRA.v hold C$1.15 08-apr-12 C$0.74 -35.7% solid biz model, LT hold
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to str buy C$2.34 07-jun-13 C$1.47 -37.2% added Oct'13 avg down
Eco Oro Min. EOM.to hold C$0.50 22-sep-13 C$0.385 -23.0% st pol risk play, added
Dalradian Res EOM.to hold C$0.65 27-oct-13 C$0.63 -3.1% Avg down again
Shorts
Tahoe Resources TAHO short U$13.10 08-apr-13 U$16.45 -25.6% port hedge, easy2b short
Pretium Res PVG short U$5.38 22-nov-13 U$5.66 -5.2% new short, news driven
Smaller/Riskier
Focus Ventures FCV.v spec buy C$0.175 01-jul-12 C$0.19 8.6% revised tgt 25c
Darwin Res DAR.v hold C$0.10 14-jul-12 C$0.06 -40.0% drilling again soon
Network Expl. NET.v hold C$0.01 22-jul-12 C$0.005 -50.0% V. small spec, foothold
Closed in 2013 closed close price
USA Graphite USGT feb'13 U$0.93 08-jan-13 U$0.17 81.7% short tgt made/trade closed
Lachlan Star LSA.to feb'13 C$1.50 30-sep-12 C$0.95 -36.7% sold to reduce port risk
United Silver USC.to mar'13 C$0.21 28-oct-12 C$0.095 -54.8% small Ag sector trade, failed
Aurcana Corp AUN.v apr'13 C$1.07 11-nov-12 C$0.55 -48.6% closed on poor YE results
Gold Res Corp GORO apr'13 U$14.11 25-jan-13 U$9.38 33.5% short tgt made/trade closed
Marlin Gold MLN.v apr'13 C$0.075 10-feb-13 C$0.065 -13.3% closed trade
Bear Creek BCM.v may'13 C$2.58 01-apr-13 C$2.40 -7.0% near-term, time ran out
Lupaka Gold LPK.to may'13 C$1.12 23-oct-11 C$0.32 -71.4% towel thrown in
Tahoe Resources TAHO may'13 U$18.62 08-apr-13 U$14.70 21.1% took profit on ST short
OceanaGold OGC.to jun'13 C$3.03 16-sep-12 C$1.18 -61.1% sold on gold drop
IMPACT Silver IPT.v jun'13 C$1.14 13-jan-13 C$0.62 -45.6% sold on silver drop
Duran Ventures DRV.v jun'13 C$0.045 10-may-13 C$0.025 -44.4% ST trade never worked
Plata Latina PLA.v jun'13 C$0.79 10-apr-12 C$0.13 -83.5% closed
Bellhaven BHV.v jun'13 C$0.065 03-jun-13 C$0.12 84.6% closed ST trade
B2Gold BTO.to aug'13 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.44 12.1% sold 1/2 to raise cash
Colossus Min. CSI.to aug'13 C$0.72 24-jul-13 C$0.79 9.7% closed thru nerves on future
Pretium Res PVG.to aug'13 C$8.20 11-jun-13 C$10.14 23.7% closed to raise cash
Bear Creek BCM.v sep'13 C$2.06 30-may-13 C$2.20 6.8% sold on pol risk decision
MAG Silver MVG oct'13 U$7.00 12-sep-13 U$5.62 19.6% near-term short
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'13 U$9.52 03-may-13 U$4.98 47.7% short tgt made, covered
AQM Copper AQM.v oct'13 C$0.31 16-oct-11 C$0.125 -59.7% closed failed trade
First Majestic AG nov'13 U$11.51 07-nov-13 U$10.50 8.8% v near term short, closed
Fortuna Silver FSM nov'13 U$4.00 07-nov-13 U$3.68 8.0% v near term short, closed
Primero PPP nov'13 U$5.70 07-nov-13 U$5.75 -0.9% v near term short, closed
Starcore Intl SAM.to nov'13 C$0.235 08-sep-13 C$0.17 -27.7% ST trade didn't work sm loss
B2Gold BTO.to dec'13 C$2.22 28-nov-12 C$2.16 -2.7% closed ST trade to raise cash
2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 closed positions in appendices below
Now for some notes on a selection of the above stocks.
B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG): Trading position sold and of course, sold the day before it bounced
back to $2.30, which would have meant a small win instead of a small loss and a recorded blob
of red on the table. So be it, Murphy’s Law and all that, but I was still glad to see BTO bounce
as I still hold a fair amount longer-term.
7

Trading now, and this 10 day chart that pits BTO against the gold bullion ETF (GLD) illustrates
how the stock is getting its act back
together. That’s a 10+% move from
early the previous week and a good
finish to last week as well (again, this
may be the end of tax loss selling
pressure from larger players).
I’m happy to hold the investment
position, but for trading purposes
better leverage to BTO is now offered
by Radius (RDU.v). See ‘Market
Watching’ below for more on that
trading idea.
Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) (RIOM): On Friday evening, the S&P/TSX index adjustments were
announced (they go into effect at close December 20th) and Rio Alto (RIO.to) (RIOM) was
confirmed as being deleted from the main Composite index. Here’s the list of the miners who’ll
be leaving the index
• Dundee Precious Metals (DPM.to)
• Endeavour Silver (EDR.to)
• Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to)
• Rubicon Minerals (RMX.to)
• Taseko Mines (TKO.to)
Interestingly, of the ten additions to Canada’s “Big Board” index there were zero mining
companies included. The deletion of RIO.to was widely called by the market and may be one of
the causes of its recent weakness, as such the news is probably baked in to a great extent.
However, this type of news may cause some limited weakness next week (you’ll often get late
day Friday strange trading around stocks that are added/deleted to indices) so those of you
looking for a bargain entry point (and I’m one of those, as witnessed last week) may look to
next Friday for the right spot.
That’s because yes, the action in RIO was healthier last week and the smell of a tide turning (I
was born by the sea) was in the air. Particularly Friday, because what was missing were the
lumpy, bid-hitting sales. The tax loss selling period ostensibly continues until just after
Christmas but as pointed out to me by a handful of readers after IKN240, a couple of them with
direct contact to brokerage desk trade activities, the rump of the selling was due to be done by
last Friday latest and anything from now is more smaller retail, rather than larger insto. This
favours the hardest hit stocks such as RIO (and I hear you with your “it’s not only RIO, XYZ and
ABC have been hard to own too” mails)
Eco Oro Minerals (EOM.to): Thursday saw the first round table discussion between all sides
(government, locals, organizations of all flavour) on the fate of the Páramo de Santurbán and
where (quit literally) the line would be drawn. The meeting went on the five hours and although
no concrete decisions were made, there was useful information gleaned at the end of it and
once again, the signs are positive for the Vetas-based mining companies such as EOM.
• The eventual limits of the Páramo nature reserve will be announced in February,
according to the latest from the Environment Minister at least. We remind you not to
hold your breath on that, but we did hear that the boundary will be larger than the
current altitude, limited reserve. One key moment for this issue will be on January 7th
(slated, unconfirmed) when the Humboldt Institute, makers of the fine grade maps of
Colombia, will unveil their new and detailed maps of the area which are being used to
8

draw the boundary lines.
• Yet again, significant hints were dropped about the Vetas municipality and its traditional
economic activity, mining, being unaffected by the Páramo decision. Also, the message
that “current concessions will be honoured” was repeated, which is not new (we heard
it a couple of weeks ago) and in favour of the holdings of EOM and others. The
indications were again enough to get the anti-mine groups complaining of a whitewash
and favouritism towards miners, with particular venom reserved for the large-scale
foreign investment projects such as EOM at Angostura, etc.
• The urban areas downstream are now not going to be tapped fro cash in order to pay
for the Páramo reserve, but the minster insists that her idea is to make the reserve a
profitable entity, rather than a drain on government coffers.
• The next steps are a series of round tables that will work on specific areas and issues,
with those directly affected by specific areas of the Páramo plan gathering and,
hopefully, reaching agreements. The first of these happens on December 20th and
they’ll resume in January 2014, once Christmas/New Year is out of the way.
Overall, the December 12th meeting, first of
several, wasn’t one that offered any black/white
indications but was again positive in vibes and
indications for mining concession holders in the
region, particularly those in and around Vetas.
That includes EOM.to and may be the reason we
saw the price recover well, though we need to
point out that decent volume was early-week
bargain hunters only, and Thursday/Friday
trading was very thin.
Dalradian Resources (DNA.to): Unlike many others, DNA did decent volumes last week.
Over the five days, the aggregate was over 600k shares traded and as prices trended lower-to-
higher, that smacks of accumulation which is not a bad thing at all.
This one month chart sure does suggest that 55c was the place to buy this stock (which is quite
good, because I added a few 55c shares myself).
Focus Ventures (FCV.v): Another good week on low volumes for FCV and thanks to that, we
finally have a blob of green on the screen in the above above (which is no mean effort, as it
wasn’t so very long ago that FCV was showing us a 50+% loss on the position and causing the
9

type of pain that is still doled out by others on the list). This is a good thing and it’s time to take
a closer look at the way in which the business plan of the company and the trading pattern
seem to be converging to one point. That point is 20c and the discussion is long enough to
warrant a separate section in ‘Market Watching’, below.
Tahoe Resources (THO.to) (TAHO): As TAHO has spent the last ten days bouncing in a new
trading range of between U$16 and U$17, the Friday close that basically splits those two prices
is fair enough.
In the ongoing legal battle between the mining
company/government and locals around Escobal, the
anti-mine camp scored a minor victory on Tuesday
(6) when Guatemala’s Constitutional Court ruled
against the government and miner, by stating that
the governmental move to annul locals’ rights to a
prior consultancy was illegal and that locals did
indeed have the right to vote on the presence of any
large industrial project, such as a mining
development, under OIT169. The win was mainly
theoretical however, because the pressure groups
have had veyr little success in convincing the government to uphold its own laws on the matter;
they tend to be simply ignored.
Minera IRL (MIRL.L) (IRL.to): In Argentina, it’s now generally accepted and common
knowledge that the Don Nicolas project is on rails, the build-out starts next year and the project
will become a mine. It’s been featured in many pro-government articles on mining in the last
seven days (the mining ministry has been promoting its 2013 “successes” and 2014 “massive
investment plans” pretty heavily, no matter that their arguments are full of holes) with Don
Nicolas one of the four poster child projects for the year ahead (and also in my view, the one
most likely to actually happen on schedule). This might have been the cause for the decent
little rebound in IRL’s share price, or it may just be sellers now worn out and not much lower
left to go. What we want from IRL in the near future is more on the financing package it’s
putting together for Ollachea.
The Copper Basket
After fifty weeks of 2013 The Copper Basket is showing a 32.10% loss to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/13 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Resources NGQ.to 3.40 168.66 263.11 1.56 -54.1%
2 Lumina Copper LCC.v 9.43 43.61 237.24 5.44 -42.3%
3 Reservoir Min. RMC.v 2.41 41.68 233.41 5.60 132.4%
4 Augusta Res AZC.to 2.43 144.35 223.74 1.55 -36.2%
5 Copper Fox CUU.v 0.83 402.96 169.24 0.42 -49.4%
6 Nevada Copper NCU.to 3.50 80.5 108.68 1.35 -61.4%
7 Hot Chili Ltd HCH.ax 0.72 297.46 101.14 0.34 -52.8%
8 NovaCopper NCQ.to 1.80 53.02 84.83 1.60 -11.1%
9 Panoro Minerals PML.v 0.62 204.71 61.41 0.30 -51.6%
10 Western Copper WRN.to 1.39 93.68 50.59 0.54 -61.2%
11 Curis Resources CUV.to 0.70 63.13 37.25 0.59 -15.7%
12 Candente Copper DNT.to 0.375 122.05 25.02 0.205 45.3%
13 Yellowhead Min. YMI.to 0.59 63.45 10.79 0.17 -71.2%
14 Oracle Mining OMN.to 0.80 49.03 8.58 0.175 -78.1%
15 Strait Minerals SRD.v 0.08 57.26 2.86 0.05 -37.5%
NB: HCH.ax priced in AUD$, rest CAD$ Portfolio avg -32.10%
10

One was unchanged (SRD.v), then six dropped (NGQ.to, HCH.ax, WRN.to, PML.v, NCQ.to,
OMN.to) and eight made gains (LCC.v,
Copper Basket 2013 average, weekly
AZC.to, CUU.v, NCU.to, RMC.v, DNT.to,
12%
YMI.to, CUV.to) in a week that saw big 8%
moves in both directions for basket 4%
0%
components. Biggest wins were -4%
registered by Copper Fox (CUU.v up -8%
-12%
10.5%), Yellowhead (YMI.to up 9.7%)
-16%
and Curis (CUV.to up 9.3%), while -20%
-24%
biggest losses came from Panoro (PML
-28%
down 18.9%), NovaCopper (NCQ.to -32%
-36%
down 16.2%), Hot Chili (HCH.ax down
15.0%) and Oracle (OMN.to down
14.6%), which tipped the overall
balance to the downside and had the
basket average lose just less than a
point on the week.
The metal had a better week than the
juniors, however. Generally bullish tone
was struck by a market that cares more
about the dropping stocks level than the
obvious manipulation of the price
discovery warehouse stocks, which put
copper back up towards the higher end
of its now long-standing trading range.
To show you that, today we feature the
daily chart that goes back to July, draw
in a line at $3.20 and another at $3.35
per pound, then a little circle to show
what happened last week in context.
In other words, a good enough move at
face value, but until we see $3.40/lb
there’s nothing new here.
On to copper inventories, which dropped
again. The LME count went to 393,000mt last week (down 3.7%), Comex 15,592mt (down
5.2%) and Shanghai Future Exchange warehouse stocks were 143,153mt (up 1.0%) which
means overall, total world stocks dropped by 14,343mt (2.5%) to 551,745mt. The worldwide
downtrend in stocks therefore continued, but the Shanghai number showed a slight and area-
specific bucking of the trend. One to watch for the next week or two, perhaps.
Finally in the market summary, last week a widely distributed Cochilco forecast put copper at a
long-term (from here to the year 2020) price average of between U$2.90/lb and U$3.00/lb.
Rather than just quote the NRs, I’d like to point you towards the actual presentation PDF that
dates back to late October and authored by Jorge Valverde, director of studies at Cochilco. It’s
a macro-economics based paper (expect a few formulae, but nothing too heavy) with the first
part concentrating on the effect of copper on Chile’s overall economy and the second part on
the world supply/demand equations. It’s a recommended note because it shows this long-term
price forecast isn’t one that Cochilco has just plucked out of the air (and as a special bonus,
give you chance to brush up on some basic Spanish vocabulary). Find it at link (7) below.
For me, the argument is very solid and gives good reason to allow copper developments, be
they large, small, owned by seniors juniors or other, to stick in a $3/lb realistic case for project
economics. As a preference, I’d still like to see companies use a $2.75/lb base case in order to
stick some decent backbone into their plans, but there doesn’t seem to be any reason to go
11
ht6naj ht02 r3bef ht71 r3ram ht71 ts13 ht41 ht82 ht21 ht62 ht9 dr32 ht7luj ts12 ht4gua ht81 ts1pes ht51 ht92 ht31 ht72 ht01 ht42 ht8
source: IKN calcs, TSX data
31/1/1
morf
egnahc
%

lower than that nowadays.
Changes to the 2014 Copper Basket
As well as putting together the new large cap basket, my thoughts have wandered to what
should be done with the Copper Basket for 2014, what companies should leave, which ones
could enter etc. It’s been pretty tough, because most junior explorers have been beaten down
nastily (with one shining exception) and in general terms, the biggest and most interesting
copper projects and new deposits aren’t in dedicated junior company hands any longer. This
makes replacements for the names a little difficult, but a few changes are going to happen and
it’s also at this point that I ask for suggestions to go alongside the names here.
The basic plan this year is to extract the companies that have the look of being totally broken
stocks. That in fact might apply to quite a few of them (there are a whole bunch of 40% to
60% losers listed up there), but there are a few that really have the look of no-return about
them. Therefore the idea is to lose these names:
• Candente Copper (DNT.to): Cañariaco is dead and this stock is buried
• Oracle Mining (OMN.to): I have more time for OMN than many other small copper
juniors, and the recent management change is probably heading in the right direction.
But the stock has dropped too far, too fast and looks broken.
• Yellowhead Mining (YMI.to): YMI has withered and nearly dies on a combo of
apathy, neighbour woes, lack of funds and permitting issues. Low grade projects are
now at the back of the queue. Again, the stock looks broken and not about to come
back
There are others in the list that I personally don’t like much (e.g. CUU.v, PML.v, LCC.v) but
that’s not a reason to exclude them from the representative basket. In the end, the one I most
hummed and hahed about was Panoro (PML.v) because Cotabambas with its low grade and
potential issues around permitting (a provincial town would have to move, not just a small
village) is looking in trouble, but as PML has a plenty more concession territory to its name in
the interesting Andahuaylas –Yauli belt of South Peru, it gets to stay and is allowed its
speculative place.
We now turn to the proposed replacements for the three to go, which are
1)Coro Mining (COP.to)
There are four things I like about COP.to at this point:
• It’s cheap at a $14.5m market cap (which is about to go higher, as the 138.3m shares
out count is soon to be 160.8m, thanks to the 22.5m unit placement at 10c (1 unit = 1
share + ½ warrant) the company is currently running.
• It’s recently got rid of the welter burden of San Jorge in Mendoza in Argentina and can
now concentrate its efforts on its Chilean assets.
• Those assets are pretty good and these days, COP gets to do things cheaply after
attracting JV partners for its main projects who are earning in and giving COP a free
ride.
• The management. Alan Stephens and his team were arguably unlucky in Mendoza (or
arguably naive in their dealings with Argentines), but they’re good copper people by all
reports and now that they can concentrate on the much easier Chile, it should suit their
style.
COP may turn into a comeback kid story in 2014 and if it starts to show that, I want to keep a
12

close eye on it. That’s why it gets a space in Copper Basket 2014.
2) AQM Copper (AQM.v)
We dropped AQM from the list last year (though kept radar via the Lottery Basket list) because
development had stalled at Zafranal. But this year AQM has done deals, got the project moving
using OPM and has held on to its minority portion. The share price has recovered somewhat
too.
As Zafranal is one of the few large copper projects out there still in (minority) hands of a junior
exploreco, it makes sense to add it back in now that real development is re-starting on the
asset.
3) Cordoba Minerals (CDB.v)
New on the scene and still in corporate formation (we expect it to merge with other local
landowners soon and create a larger entity, CDB has an interesting early stage project on its
hands in Colombia. It’s also being driven by the Gold Group umbrella company of
Ridgway/Szotlender fame, so the pedigree is pretty good, too.
So those are the planned changes, just three out and three in, however if you have a
suggestion for a stock I may have overlooked (very possible, knowing how my brain works) feel
free to pitch the idea. You know the mail address.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Now for updates on a few of our basket stocks.
Curis Resources (CUV.to): We now have a date, so stick this one in your diary. Last week
(8) a schedule was set (after several delays) for the trial over the granting or otherwise of the
key water permit for CUV’s Florence Copper project. The administrative trial will now begin on
March 18th 2014 and will run for 15 days, after which the verdict is expected to be delivered
within 20 days. So the quickmath suggests that if this goes according to plan, we’ll know one
way or the other about CUV’s project in mid to late April.
There is more to the story of course, such as the civil claim for $403m that CUV is in the
process of launching to combat the town of Florence’s efforts to change the eminent domain
category of the copper project land and stop the in-situ mine from happening, i.e. the
developments we reported last week. Still, the water permit trail will be a key moment in this
battle and brings the type of up-down decision that will go a long way to resolving the case; it
also comes with the type of specific time window that investors and speculators like.
Panoro (PML.v): Again tiny volumes, with the tape painting of last week unwound
(unsurprisingly) and just 8,500 shares traded over the whole week. This chart shows the
liquidity problem that PML has hit (and we’ve commented upon) better than another long
paragraph of prose. Avoid PML.
13

Augusta Resources (AZC.to)
As this report (9) in the Arizona Star pointed out last week, the problem that Rosemont has is
now less about the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) decision on the project and more about the
Environmental Protection Agency’s call. With its draft decision now published, the USFS has
made its positive (with caveats) recommendation clear and although there will still be some
hurdles to cross, it’s a relatively straight path to official permit delivery for Rosemont. Then
come the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers decision on a water permit, but after that things get
sticker. Here’s an excerpt of the report for your consideration:
After that, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will decide on Rosemont Copper’s
application for a separate Clean Water Act permit to dredge and fill materials in
washes and streams in and around the mine site. The Environmental Protection
Agency — which to date has been sharply critical of the project — has legal power to
veto the permit.
The EPA, Pima County, the Bureau of Land Management and the Arizona Department
of Environmental Quality have raised questions about the project’s impacts on
Davidson Canyon and Cienega Creek, and ADEQ must decide if the mine meets state
standards protecting those creeks.
Still, for Rosemont, “The draft (decision), which includes the approval of the preferred
Barrel alternative, provides the road map for the operation of the Rosemont Copper
Project,” said Gil Clausen, Augusta’s president and chief executive officer. “This
decision is the conclusion of six years of analysis conducted by the service and the
cooperating agencies. This input allowed the service to develop a sound alternative
that will meet all of the required regulations while addressing public concerns and
issues.”
But mine opponent
Gayle Hartmann countered that the Forest Service is saying the mine proposal meets
federal law without the final sign-off on that point from other agencies. She noted that
the EPA has said repeatedly that the mine proposal doesn’t meet the Clean Water Act
and that mitigation plans are inadequate.
“The Forest Service was trying, probably as much as anything, to wash its hands of
this project and let other agencies take over,” said Hartmann, president of Save the
Scenic Santa Ritas.
That doesn’t look nearly as straightforward as the company tries to make out and goes a long
way to explaining just why so many people were keen on selling into the USFS positive decision
a couple of weeks ago. I avoid this trappy story.
The Lottery Ticket Basket
After 50 weeks of 2013 The Lottery Ticket Basket is showing a 36.28% loss to level stakes.
14

company ticker price 1/1/13 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Marlin Gold MLN.v 0.10 680 47.60 0.070 -30.0%
2 Eagle Star Min. EGE.v 0.125 79.13 15.03 0.190 52.0%
3 AQM Copper AQM.v 0.08 105.57 13.20 0.125 56.2%
4 Fancamp Expl. FNC.v 0.125 177 9.74 0.055 -56.0%
5 Bellhaven BHV.v 0.14 136.81 4.10 0.030 -78.6%
6 Inca One Res. IO.v 0.12 34.0 3.57 0.105 -12.5%
7 Netco Silver NEI.v 0.125 9.4 3.10 0.330 164.0%
8 Tango Gold TGV.v 0.13 76.24 2.67 0.035 -73.1%
9 Gryphon Gold GGN.to 0.085 194.64 1.95 0.010 -93.5%
10 Copper North COL.v 0.10 58.7 1.76 0.030 -70.0%
11 Glass Earth GEL.v 0.155 105.67 1.59 0.015 -90.3%
12 Darwin Resources DAR.v 0.20 26.16 1.57 0.060 -70.0%
13 Agave Silver AGV.v.v 0.30 21.55 1.29 0.060 -80.0%
14 Rio Cristal RCZ.v 0.025 17.259 0.43 0.025 -90.0%
15 Firestone Ventures FV.v 0.045 36.82 0.37 0.010 -77.8%
Portfolio avg -36.28%
Seven went down (MLN.v, BHV.v,
25% Lottery Ticket Basket 2013 average, weekly
GEL.v, EGE.v, COL.v, DAR.v RCZ.v),
20%
three were unchanged (GGN.to, FNC.v, 15%
10%
AGV.v) and five went up (AQM.v,
5%
TGV.v, IO.v, FV.v, NEI.v), with the 0%
-5%
biggest percentage upmove from -10%
Firestone (FV.v up 100.0%) and the -15%
-20%
biggest downers from Copper North -25%
(COL.v down 33.3%) and Glass Earth -30%
-35%
(GEL.v down 25.0%). I’ll be glad when -40%
-45%
this is all over, in just two week’s time.
Tango Gold (TGV.v): A late Friday NR, which sets the scene correctly. TGV seems to be trying
to re-negotiate is Topacio option deal from a position of weakness and aside from that, has
scaled back employees to virtual zero and got rid of its CEO (10). Things do not look good for
TGV in the near-term.
Marlin Gold (MLN.v): An interesting move last week, as MLN decided (11) to make public its
interest in acquiring Animas Resources (ANI.v) and made a hostile bid that upsets the plans of
ANI and its friendly suitor, GoGold.
The move didn’t do much to the MLN stock price and it’s more interesting from the ANI side of
things (as noted on the blog last week (12)) because MLN seesm to have walked in uninvited
on the cozy deal Animas and GoGold were setting up for themselves and by voting with cash,
have shone the spotlight on a junior-to-junior deal that looks like it was vastly undervaluing the
San Gertrudis asset to the detriment of ANI shareholders. The politics that unfold around this
deal may become interesting. As for San Gertrudis, it’s not a bad little surface level deposit and
MLN’s interest isn’t misplaced, in my humble opinion.
There may be a trade here, but the trade would theoretically be to buy ANIO.v shares and then
sell them to MLN.v. Right now ANI is trading at 7.5c, which is a big 33.3% pre-commish arb to
the supposed price MLN will pay, but a lot will depend on how both ANI and GoGold react to
this unsolicited counterbid. The main sticking point would be if the aNI board decide (for their
own sweet and very selfish reasons) that the GoGold deal is still the better one (using the NSR
15
ht6naj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3bef ht01 ht71 ht42 r3ram ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpa ht41 ts12 ht82 t5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 s12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht6tco ht31 ht02 ht72 r3von ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1ced ht8 ht51
source: IKN Weekly data, TSX
2102/1/1
morf
egnahc
%

as their argument point) and recommend against MLN. That’s why I’m not currently rushing in
and scooping up ANI shares, but if the right noises come the trade could be profitable. Flash
update material, perhaps.
Regional politics
Argentina: Barrick cuts 1,500 jobs at Pascua Lama Argentina
The decent local media channel covering the Northeastern Argentina region, El Diario Del Cuyo,
first reported a story on Friday (13) which was then picked up by regional media and even
made English language copy by yesterday Saturday (e.g. here’s Reuters, reporting about ¾ of
the story (14)). The need to know is:
Of the 4,800 to 5,000 workers employed at Lama (the number varies), which is the Argentina
side of the Pascua Lama project, the 3,500 workers who are residents of San Juan are being
kept on until end April minimum. The other 1,300 to 1,500 workers, said to be comprised of
400 foreign nationals and around 1,000 Argentines from other provinces, are being laid off.
At a best guess, the decision to employ the 3,500 (pre-crisis there were around 10,000 workers
at Lama) instead of trimming workforce to the bone as was originally planned, will cost Barrick
around U$30m until April and around U$70m if employed to the end of 2014. This would
roughly double the U$60m ABX had originally set aside for care and maintenance costs in 2014
for the Lama end of the project, however it’s the veritable drop in a bucket compared to the
overall U$5Bn+ already thrown at the project.
The decision to keep on the 3,500 local workers is almost certainly politically motivated and
comes after some negotiations. As noted in the very interesting report linked on the blog last
week (15) ABX was coming under pressure from the San Juan province to keep paying salaries,
with the big bargaining chip being the “continued well-being” of Veladero, the ABX gold mine
that lies South of the Pascua Lama project and also in San Juan. The provincial government’s
strategy may not have been very subtle, but it’s probably the difference between full-scale lay-
offs and the 3,500 who’ll keep on receiving salaries. Also, the inference is that the April 2014
minimum employment will likely get extended, else cause “problems” for the other mine. It’s
how business is done in Argentina, ladies and gentlemen, though the April minimum decision
does give ABX the chance to play hardball come the time, which is always a possibility if the
world gold market deteriorates further. We shall see.
Changing the subject slightly, we also had plenty of talk floating around the Southern
Hemisphere last week that Barrick is actively looking for a Chinese JV partner to move Pascua
Lama forward, one example of many this report in Chile’s best biznews paper (16), which is one
of those unsubstantiated rumours that makes a lot of sense. But as the saying goes down here,
“Hay un gran trecho entre dicho y hecho” (close enough is “there’s a big gap between word and
deed”) and as ABX really doesn’t have much in the way of kudos to lose at this point in the
South, there’s no reason to suppose the propagation of the jungledrums equates to a near-
done deal this time, either.
Uruguay: More on the rising level of debate over mining activity
The headline-grabbing passage of the marijuana law in Uruguay is the only issue the world
seems to care about as regards the country, which is fair enough I suppose. But behind that
and as noted last weekend, the mining debate is rising in-country and that was underscored by
reports last week (17) that President José Mujica has asked his ministers to go on a pro-mining
campaign to promote the benefits of mining activity in the country. During the cabinet meeting
last Monday, Mujica asked his ministers, with special emphasis given to the Ministries of
Industry, Housing and Farming, to begin an eduational campaign on the virtues of mining in the
country and to do so calmly and without aggression to explain the benefits that large-scale
mining can bring. This comes on the back of the presidential decree to permit the construction
of a deep-water port in the coastal Rocha region that would be used by the iron ore mine
16

projects currently under consideration.
According to the post-meeting press conference, the government recognizes growing public
antagonism towards large scale mining projects and therefore the government plans to use
media and public debate platforms to explain the administration’s position and to “show that
they are fundamental pieces in the development and sustainability of the country”.
Mexico Oaxaca: The two anti-mine protesters to Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) (FSM) San
José mine, located and being held by organized crime police
Last week the story of the disappeared husband and wife protesters, this week at least their
location has been identified. After getting a court ruling that required the regional government
and police force to release information, it turns out (18) that Salomé García López and husband
Olegario Víctor Ruíz Martínez, members of the main opposition group to the Fortuna Silver
Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) (FSM) San José mine in Oaxaca, were arrested by the ‘Seido’ police
force who specialize in combatting organized crimes in the state. They are being held in the
Siedo police station, but as yet there have been no charges made against them, nor have third
parties been told of the reasons for their arrest, both of which are against the due process
arrest laws in Mexico.
Market Watching
The large cap basket for 2014: An alternative name by popular demand
Thank you all for the mails sent in for suggestions and alternative names for the 2014 Large
Cap Basket, set to begin in the just three weeks’ time. All the ideas were taken on board and
there were plenty of different companies mentioned too, not a one was out of place.
After due consideration, one name that was mentioned more than any other is getting the nod.
Franco Nevada (FNV) fits our criteria well, is a solid big cap size (at ~$6.2Bn mkt cap) and will
make for a useful gold-biased counterpoint to the silver streamer that’s on board already, SLW.
Franco Nevada will take the place of Fresnillo (FRES.L).
South American Silver (SAC.to): An obvious short (for those who can)
This one isn’t for everyone, because it’s a Canadian-only listed company and therefore not so
easy for us retail minnows to short.
This is more of a headsup message
for those of you on insto desks with
the clearer opportunity to run
shorts, because I have not a single
clue as to why this company, post
HDG merger, is suddenly getting
valued at $140m.
SAC.to in the days when it was run
by Greg Johnson (ex-Nadagold and
a real self-serving promo BS
merchant) was prone to pumped
hype and it seems to have run on
the idea that the sum of two
broken companies is worth far
more than its parts. As the
potential audience for this short is insto desk-bound I’ll simply invite them to take a closer look
at the company and see if they can work out why it should have popped so much since mid-
November. Once you’ve looked, you’ll be looking to short it too. Also, with a share price of over
$1, access is easier than the average smallcap, too.
17

Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) (FSM) now a possible trade buy
The dive in FVI has been pretty steep these last few days and this weekend we find it at $2.95.
From looking relatively expensive (or at least priced fully to peers) it’s now looking cheap
enough to be a potential trading buy, and here’s why.
This is the main reason, an unjustly oversold stock price.
FVI.to: Equity, BV, PPS, ratios
3.40
3.20
3.00
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
18
90q4 01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 won
BV/share
BV/PPS ratio
source: company filings, TSX, IKN calcs
With the book value rising and the share price dropping, the ratio of price to book value is now
1.38X and the lowest since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. If FVI were a money-
losing entity, as so many other silver producers are at these current price levels, we could make
a case for the justification of this new low level, but as the next chart shows...
FVI.to: Quarterly Earnings overview
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 tse31q4
source: company filings, IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
revenues
COGS
Mine Op. Income
...even with silver lower (in this case, we assume an average 4q13 silver price of $20.60/oz,
based on the London Fix average
Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) (FSM): Ag production by qtr
to this point and averaging slightly
lower) FVI is still making a profit. 1400000
We expect the increased cost 1200000
efficiency of the now expanded
1000000
San José mine, now running at 700000
1,800tpd, to offset at least some 800000 377377468865486296 502835 491181 492773580570 536191
100790
of the price drop and maintain 600000
margins for the company. I’d
400000
agree this the projections aren’t
200000
559959 536426484226509897524906 519549 499445493438568722580000
for a massive profit-making
quarter and if things stay tough, 0
with silver under $20/oz, we’d
need to scrape another $1.5m to
$2m from the top line for future
quarter projections as well.
However, it means that FVI isn’t about to go into loss-making territory and as such, it’s unwise
11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 tse31q4
source: company filings
rtq/gA
secnuo
San José Silver prod (oz)
Caylloma Silver prod (oz)
6

to throw this baby out with the bathwater silver stock (USA.to, GPR.to, GORO) that are losing
money at the current price deck.
Net earnings are the place people will eventually look (even though this year-end result won’t
be reported until March and the weakness in
the last couple of weeks may be connected 24 FVI.to: Net Earnings per qtr
to the last two quarters, in which FVI 20
16
reported losses (one mainly due to the write-
12
down of in-situ asset value, the other pre- 8
San José expansion). However, our model 4
shows FVI returning a clear though modest 0
-4
profit in 4q13 and as long as silver doesn’t
-8
cave completely, that should continue
-12
through FY14.
As for a trading target, to bring that P/BV
ratio back to a more reasonable 1.7X we’d
need FVI back at $3.60. That would indicate a ~20% upside to today’s levels, which is fairly
modest but looks one of the safer near-term bets you could make on the silver market today.
It’s also well inside the recent trading range of FVI.
The bottom line is that FVI shows all fundamental signs of being particularly oversold all of a
sudden. It’s on no need of new cash and now that the San José expansion is in place, would
need a big further drop in the price of silver to start operating at a loss. Potentially hit by tax-
loss selling, FVI is suddenly a really strong near-term value proposition.
Focus Ventures (FCV.v): Price and company action converging, potential catalyst
approaching, interest rising (& greed gland opening)
It’s been years in the holding, but the faith put in the brains trust at Focus Ventures (FCV.v)
may be about to pay off. This six month chart
shows how FCV has recovered from its summer
lows and even showed chunky buyers showing up
in November (more on that later), with last Friday’s
close of 19c the best number we’ve seen since
February and on a par with the trading prices we
had in 2012, too.
We’ve covered quite closely the company’s new
direction towards phosphate plays in the last few
weeks and months so there’s no need to go into too
much detail here, but as quickly and simply as
possible:
19
01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2 31q3 tse31q4
source: FVI filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

• FCV has put together a big package of phosphate concessions, including the very
prospective Bayovar property near an major phosphate producing mine and an
advanced stage project in Northern Peru.
• The market reception for the change in direction (away from typical gold/silver/copper
etc projects) has been good, with initial acceptance and now significant insto backing.
• Cash is raised, permits cleared and all is now set for drilling of the flagship property
starting January next year. Assuming they find what they believe they’ll find, interest in
the FCV story is set to grow.
• Compared in a straight line manner to asset values of the neighbouring mines and
properties in the Bayovar region, FCV offers very strong leverage to its current share
price.
There’s your overview, now for an update on new info gleaned, thoughts thunked and,
importantly, a longer gaze at the share structure of today’s FCV because my distinct impression
is that the very recent share price action is part of a set-up that should, all going well with the
truth machine in January/February, see this stock pop much higher in 1q14.
Let’s start with an overview of the share count, which is updated today following the successful
closing of the $1.5m placement, as noted last week.
• Shares Issued and Outstanding: 52,783,774
• Warrants: 20,082, 273
• Options: 2,635,000
• Total Fully Diluted Share count: 75,501,047
So far so good and Friday’s 19c close means that FCV now has a market cap of $10.02m.
However, today we dig a little deeper into the share structure, because the interesting bit lies in
the warrants count. Here’s how those 20,082,273 warrants are currently structured
No. Of Shares Exercise Price Expiry Date Potential Dollar Value
57,840 $0.20 Jan 31, 2014 $11,568
7,037,000 $0.20 July 31, 2014 $1,407,400
12,670,800 $0.20 Nov 27, 2015 $2,534,160
316,633 $0.16 Nov 27, 2015 $50,661
The lines that catch the eye are the 7m and bits warrants that expire in July next year and the
12.67m in November 2015, all at a 20c strike. What makes them even more interesting is that
the November 2015 warrants have a forced exercise clause that will allow FCV to call them in if
the stock trades above 25c for 20 consecutive days. Along with the minor lines, that’s over $4m
in potential treasury and nearly all at a 20c strike.
Which makes the creeping move up to Friday’s close of 19c more interesting. There’s a clear
warrant overhang here, but if FCV can make it over that 20c hump successfully, there will be a
lot of clear running room for the stock and at 25c, exactly the sort of treasury cash it needs, all
without the mess and fuss of a difficult financial market, is there for the taking.
Next up, lets go back to the most recent buying action and recall that the buyer of the ~860k
share block in late November was Rick Rule, via his U.S Global fund. Now, we don’t know how
20

much of that block was for Rule himself and how much was for the fund clients, but we do
know that the fund was the buyer at 13c and since then, we’ve seen a low volume rise in FCV
to a price that sits just under the warrant exercise. Now, as I’m the kind of person that doesn’t
believe in coincidences, I’d vouch that there’s a direct connection between that recent block buy
and the way in which FCV has traded up. And by the way, you can come across good and bad
reports of Rule, but one thing you cannot fault him on is his agenda when it comes to
investments; there are no secret corners, second-guessing or no false motives there, his is “buy
low sell high goodbye”, straight hard-nosed capitalism and you know exactly where he’s coming
from on any deal. I respect that (and wish more moving parts were as straightforward to gauge
in this crazy juniors game).
Back to the narrative and in FCV we have a stock that’s been quietly traded up to a significant
warrant overhang price point and an underlying company that’s raised the money it requires for
a clearly dated drilling campaign that’s expected to deliver good results. institutional and (so-
called) sophisticated investor interest has been re-kindled and the right sort of money has
bought in at low prices.
That was then and today, now for the future and what it might hold for us greedy retailers
hunting for a winning spec trade. What we’d want to see from FCV in the next couple of
months is a pattern that goes roughly like this:
1) Continued low level interest in trading the stock until drilling begins, with the 20c
warrant overhang a natural ceiling for the stock price but at the same time, an FCV that
doesn’t retreat and is held at-or-around the 17c-20c range.
2) Improved volumes begin to kick in, providing the type of trading liquidity that attracts
larger speculators (and also gives the earlier money an out if desired).
3) Drill results arrive, the market approves and FCV breaks above the key 20c warrant
overhang price point. Once above it, the stock should be clear to move higher (with
perhaps the 25c forced exercise point the next stop).
4) Warrants exercised, treasury topped up, much improved trading and volume action in
the stock and increased buzz about FCV as a new player in the phosphates sphere.
5) Price continues to climb, Rule and the early guys cash out to their content and count
their winnings, we also sell high the shares we bought low, everybody home for tea
and cake.
What could possibly go wrong?
Well of course lots of things, including the potential for duds from the drilling program, but at
least from what I’ve gathered this program around Bayovar is as close to a lay-up as you get in
exploration geology. It would be a big shock NOT to find the same type of phosphate
mineralization at the target zone as there is in the whole plateau there. The nature of the laid-
down then gently risen geology makes for these very big and uniform layers; it's as simple as
geology gets. So if things go well with the drillbit (and there’s no reason why they shouldn’t,
when we put into the equation the decent names and their market/radar making potential
there’s every chance that good numbers aren’t going to go un-noticed by a market that’s so far
largely unaware of the “new FCV”.
As I mentioned in a mail to a fellow long in FCV last week,
my perfect world mental model is Eagle Star (EGE.v), the
way it reacted to good news on its phosphate concession in
Brazil in early 2013 and how that it subsequently popped and
became a rare success in the tinycap junior exploreco world
in 2013 (here right is the 12 month price chart, note
particularly the price/volume action in January-March period)
To sum up, with the combination of new cash on board FCV,
either willingly funding the recent $1.5m financing or willingly
21

buying chunky blocks of shares on the open market after the necessary DD, along with the run
to a new development’s drill program that looks highly likely to deliver good numbers to a
largely unaware general market, all has the look of a company getting its stars aligned and its
ducks in line at the right time. Along with what looks like a key 20c price level that can be first
traded around and then broken through, we have an interesting combo of serious money,
significant potential price upside and a clear timeframe in which it all happens.
The Radius Gold (RDU.v) B2Gold (BTO.to) arbitrage opportunity
More work on what I believe is the best of the
three “valued at cash” prospects mentioned a
couple of weeks ago, the most interesting was
the arbitrage potential of B2Gold to RDU. It’s a
stock that’s largely dependent on the quality
company B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG) for its
valuation, so a sharper eye should now be kept
on its relative valuation because BTO is showing
interesting signs of life. First things first and lets
update our valuation data:
• RDU share count 86.676m S/O
• Share price 10c
• Therefore Market Cap: $8.67m
That was easy enough. Which we compare to its cash and purely financial assets:
• BTO shares: $8.65m (3.88m X $2.33)
• FCV.v shares: $0.19m (1m X 19c)
• Cash: $2.1m
• Total: $10.94
As cash is for all intents and purposes working capital in the case of RDU and burn rate is now
very low due to no exploration activities and office-only basic burn this is in my opinion a fair
valuation. That brings us to a cash-per-share valuation of 12.6c a share which looks like a keen
bargain compared to Friday’s 10c close, at least to me.
However and importantly, the market doesn’t seem to agree with me and is apparently loathe
to pay 12.5c for RDU shares and its apparent residual value. Why that might be is a debate we
could have and it might touch on issues of tinycap trust, of market efficiency or the stickiness of
low volume, low priced stocks.
But that’s for another day, as today I’m taking Tucson Jim’s words to heart and offering up a
practical profit-seeking framework. Let’s assume the following:
a) we take the current action at face value and state that the market isn’t interested in the
current ~2.5c, ~25% arbitrage.
b) At some point, if the arbitrage gets too wide the market will indeed pay up for RDU
shares and lessen or even close the gap.
From there, let’s assume (and this time it’s subjective, draw your own line in the sand if you
prefer) that the market will start playing catch-up on the RDU/BTO arb when the gap goes over
30% (today’s 25% apparently not enough to tempt). From there we can put together this table:
22

Radius Gold (RDU.v): Arbitrage to B2Gold share price movements
BTO pps ($) other assets equal ($m) RDU pps "fair value" % arb to 10c % arb to 9.5c % arb to 9c
2.00 2.29 0.116 15.95 22.05 28.83
2.10 2.29 0.120 20.43 26.76 33.81
2.20 2.29 0.125 24.90 31.48 38.78
2.30 2.29 0.129 29.38 36.19 43.75
2.40 2.29 0.134 33.85 40.90 48.73
2.50 2.29 0.138 38.33 45.61 53.70
2.60 2.29 0.143 42.81 50.32 58.68
2.70 2.29 0.147 47.28 55.04 63.65
2.80 2.29 0.152 51.76 59.75 68.62
2.90 2.29 0.156 56.24 64.46 73.60
3.00 2.29 0.161 60.71 69.17 78.57
source: RDU data, IKN calcs
On the left, the BTO share price variable. Next, we assume cash + FCV shares at $2.29m
constant. The middle column is the nominal cash+financial asset value of one RDU share.
Then to the right we have three columns, that show the arbitrage gap for RDU at three share
prices; 9c, 9.5c and 10c (the recent and somewhat sticky trading range). You’ll note that those
columns are shaded gold (and why not gold after all?) when the arb is over 30% (pre-
commish).
We then come to the trade potential of the arb, so here goes with the plan:
1) If you can get 9c for RDU, take it. Unless BTO drops to 42 and below, that price
looks very safe and with strong percentage upside to the theoretical price wherever it
may be.
2) If BTO rises above $2.30, 9.5c looks good too. You could make the case for $2.20
(i.e. today’s price or even three pennies less) and I’d wholly agree, but the market
apparently needs more temptation. However, 36% pre commish should be enough to
get a move form our smaller stock.
3) If BTO goes on a significant run higher take any price because if it truly catches
fire, RDU at 10c or even 11c could quickly change to 15c.
There does seem to be good value on offer here, but with the state of the market as it is,
there’s the potential for a great, knockdown bargain entry point instead of just a very good one.
As this six month price chart shows, it
does go through fallow periods of
volume, only to spike up again and
become very tradeable and right now,
the average of under/plenty under 10c
(apart from one last trade Friday
afternoon that painted the tape a bit)
looks relative good value.
Bottom line: Here’s a quick trade, with
a surfeit of tangible asset backbone, that
could pay for the Christmas
turkey’n’trimmings. The table suggests
the potential of a very good arbitrage
with one of the best junior gold stocks in
the Canadian market and if sub-10c
prices show up again the value goes to the type of percentage gap that overrides the potential
risks of buying into a tinycap. This time next week, as long as the price and entry works
for me, you may find a new line on the ‘Stocks to Follow’ table with RDU featured.
23

Conclusion
IKN241 is done, we end with bullet points:
• There are trades to be made out there. They may not be the biggest ones and they
may not have two or three bagger targets attached, but these near-term ideas to play
off oversold looking stocks are valid speculations in this market. This week FVI.to and
RDU.v look interesting, while FCV.v and COP.to are shaping as good ones to hold into
the start of 2014. Of the four, RDU.v at under 10c is one that will get my purse-strings
unknotted most quickly as long as BTO maintains its recovery pattern. FVI under $3
looks cheap too, with the recent (tax loss?) selling pushing it down to the levels that far
worse silver companies sit. Then there’s also the potential of a quick arb trade in
Animas (ANI.v), but that one needs its newsflow watching.
• Add all those to Eco Oro (EOM.to) and Dalradian (DNA.to), because I particularly like
the way those two longs are beginning to trade.
• However and to be clear, own RIO.to above all other. Vastly cheap and now showing
signs of putting in a richly deserved recovery run. It’d be about time, too.
• Meanwhile, shortside ideas appeal as well. South American Silver (SAC.to) is an inflated
sack of nothing that those in the position to short in Canada would do well to check
carefully. And as noted in the Pretium (PVG) piece today, something just isn’t right with
the information that this company’s valuation is hung upon.
The top long-term picks are Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) and Minera IRL (IRL.to). I thank
you in advance for any feedback. Flash updates will be sent promptly if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Otto
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2013/12/the-trouble-with-43-101-debate-continues.html
(2) http://www.incakolanews.blogspot.com/2013/12/mining-prs-and-ottotrans-part-81.html
(3) http://www.incakolanews.blogspot.com/2013/12/a-pretium-pvg-bulk-sample-table.html
(4) http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.114.9175&rep=rep1&type=pdf
(5) http://web.cim.org/UserFiles/File/CIM_DEFINITON_STANDARDS_Nov_2010.pdf
(6) http://www.elperiodico.com.gt/es/20131210/pais/239405/
(7)
http://www.cochilco.cl/Archivos/presentaciones/20131212125222_ESTRUCTURA%20Y%20PROYECCION%20DEL%2
0MERCADO%20DEL%20COBRE.pdf
(8) http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2013/12/13/trial-set-over-arizona-permit-for.html?page=all
(9) http://azstarnet.com/news/business/forest-service-will-allow-rosemont-but-mine-is-still-not/article_07211a66-7d95-
5236-bb2a-586b4a88c8d1.html
(10) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tango-gold-corporate-230104996.html
(11) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/marlin-gold-announces-intention-cash-160200480.html
(12) http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2013/12/ikn-predicts-next-steps-in-animas.html
24

(13) http://www.aminera.com/index.php/mineria-internacional/item/1463-barrick-se-comprometi%C3%B3-a-seguir-al-
menos-hasta-abril.html
(14) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/barrick-laying-off-1-500-144711197.html
(15) http://www.incakolanews.blogspot.com/2013/12/the-state-of-play-in-argentina-mining.html
(16) http://www.df.cl/barrick-buscaria-socio-chino-para-reactivar-proyecto-pascua-lama/prontus_df/2013-12-
11/220805.html
(17) http://noticias.terra.com.ar/internacionales/mujica-pidio-a-sus-ministros-que-hagan-campana-pro-
mineria,917273c590ac2410VgnCLD2000000ec6eb0aRCRD.html
(18) http://www.adnsureste.info/index.php/noticias/politica/63634-qaparecenq-activistas-en-oaxaca-estan-en-la-seido-
1355-h
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2012
Closed in 2012 closed close PPS
Soltoro SOL.v jan'12 C$0.87 07-nov-11 C$0.94 8.0% cash moved to BCM.v
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to feb'12 C$0.84 13-oct-10 C$0.98 16.7% trade closed on ELG.v offer
Minefinders MFN feb'12 U$11.68 17-nov-11 U$14.80 26.7% target made, trade closed
Iron Creek IRN.v mar'12 C$0.58 26-sep-10 C$0.31 -46.6% time up on small bad trade
U.S. Silver USA.to apr'12 C$2.18 15-mar-12 C$1.86 -14.7% ST trade no good, cut loss
Augusta Res. AZC.to may'12 C$3.10 29-ene-12 C$2.07 -33.2% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Bellhaven BHV.v may'12 C$0.50 22-sep-10 C$0.28 -44.0% new mgmt not impressive
Zincore Metals ZNC.to may'12 C$0.325 29-jul-11 C$0.17 -47.7% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Soltoro SOL.v may'12 C$0.70 18-mar-11 C$0.41 -41.4% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
U.S. Silver USA.to aug'12 C$1.78 27-jul-12 C$1.36 -23.6% fail ST trade close pre split
Estrella Gold EST.v aug'12 C$0.91 27-mar-11 C$0.14 -84.6% Closed on port realignment
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'12 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.32 397.2% sell call $6.17/ Mar25
Strait Minerals SRD.v oct'12 C$0.125 09-dic-11 C$0.12 -4.0% closing coverage til FY13
Sunward Res SWD.to oct'12 C$1.47 13-mar-11 C$1.21 -17.7% sold, took loss
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'12 U$21.47 09-sep-12 U$17.40 19.0% Short trade closed
Yellowhead Min. YMI.to nov'12 C$1.00 01-abr-12 C$0.63 -37.0% sold, took loss
Primero Mining PPP nov'12 U$7.26 07-oct-12 U$6.73 7.3% Short trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v nov'12 C$3.38 07-nov-11 C$3.72 10.1% Took small profit
Vena Resources VEM.to dec'12 C$0.70 31-may-09 C$0.18 -74.3% Failed trade (caps F)
Galway Res GWY.v dec'12 C$2.19 24-nov-12 C$2.30 5.0% closed good ST arb trade
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2011
Closed in 2011 closed close PPS
Sunward Res SWD.v jan'11 C$1.05 21-nov-10 C$1.63 55.2% target made, trade closed
Serengeti Res SIR.v mar'11 C$0.245 05-dec-10 C$0.285 16.3% sold pre-tgt, ST trade fail
Fronteer Gold FRG apr'11 U$2.37 03-may-09 U$15.24 543.0% buyout, trade closed
Minefinders MFN apr'11 U$9.09 07-nov-10 U$16.89 85.8% target made, trade closed
Metalline Min. MMG may'11 U$1.04 26-jan-11 U$0.89 -14.4% exit, resource disappointed
Peregrine Met PGM.to jul'11 C$0.87 06-mar-11 C$2.60 198.9% buyout offer, closed
Dynasty Metals DMM.to jul'11 C$4.20 03-may-09 C$2.85 -32.1% Sold. Fail. Move on.
Aura Silver AUU.v aug'11 C$0.22 13-oct-10 C$0.16 -36.4% Bad pick. Take loss
U.S. Silver USA.v aug'11 C$0.52 26-jan-11 C$0.71 36.5% closed to make room
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'11 C$2.80 12-may-11 C$4.27 52.5% target made, trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v sep'11 C$3.80 27-may-11 C$4.17 9.7% macro sell call victim
Minefinders MFN sep'11 U$14.70 10-aug-11 U$15.15 3.1% macro sell call victim
Great Panther GPR.to sep'11 C$3.03 22-aug-11 C$2.64 -12.9% macro sell call victim
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'11 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.36 400.9% sold 20%, macro sell call
Focus Ventures FCV.v nov'11 C$0.40 20-apr-10 C$0.20 -50.0% cut losses, bad trade
Regulus Res. REG.v dec'11 C$1.17 14-aug-11 C$0.52 -55.6% cut on news of poor 43-101
2009 and 2010 closed positions in appendices below
25

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2010
Closed in 2010 closed close PPS
B2Gold Corp BTO.to Jan'10 C$0.88 08-nov-09 C$1.49 68.2% target made, trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v Jan'10 C$0.18 23-aug-09 C$0.40 122.2% target made, trade closed
MAG Silver MVG mar'10 U$5.60 23-nov-09 U$7.28 30.0% closed in pdac week
Riverside Res RRI.v mar'10 C$0.435 20-sep-09 C$0.60 37.9% closed in pdac week
Amarillo Gold AGC.v mar'10 C$0.81 31-may-09 C$0.70 -13.6% closed in pdac week
B2Gold Corp BTO.to apr'10 C$1.24 18-feb-10 C$1.50 21.0% target made, trade closed
Lumina Copper LCC.v apr'10 C$0.84 14-jun-09 C$1.55 51.2% total position now sold
Troy Resources TRY.to may'10 C$1.10 03-may-09 C$2.25 104.5% sold on negative results
AuEx Ventures XAU.to may'10 C$2.51 24-may-09 C$3.38 34.7% trade closed
Nevada Copper NCU.to jun'10 C$3.27 14-mar-10 C$2.03 -37.9% need to lower Cu exposure
Carpathian Gold CPN.to jun'10 C$0.39 14-mar-10 C$0.35 -10.3% too exposed to cap raising
Amerix PM Corp APM.v jun'10 C$0.065 08-nov-09 C$0.05 -23.1% victim of macro bear
Antares Minerals ANM.v jun'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$2.10 47.9% sold half
Vena Resources VEM.to jun'10 C$0.37 31-may-09 C$0.23 -37.8% sold half
Minera Andes MAI.to sep'10 C$0.75 28-jul-10 C$0.95 26.7% ST trade closed
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to sep'10 C$0.52 01-aug-10 C$0.75 44.2% target made, trade closed
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'10 C$1.45 25-may-10 C$2.01 34.5% target made, trade closed
Blue Sky Uran BSK.v oct'10 C$0.41 19-may-10 C$0.22 -46.3% v small v bad trade closed
Dia Bras Expl DIB.v oct'10 C$0.14 30-aug-09 C$0.35 150.0% target made, trade closed
S. Amer. Silver SAC.to nov'10 C$1.38 24-oct-10 C$1.60 -15.9% loss on short, small fail
Ventana Gold VEN.to nov'10 C$7.92 27-jun-10 C$13.51 70.6% trade closed on buyout
Lumina Copper LCC.v nov'10 C$1.42 11-aug-10 C$3.65 157.0% trade closed
Antares Minerals ANM.v dec'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$8.40 491.5% trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.v dec'10 C$0.69 23-mar-10 C$2.16 213.0% trade closed
Coro Mining COP.to dec'10 C$0.585 03-oct-10 C$1.24 112.0% target made, trade closed
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2009
Closed positions closed closing PPS
Cardero Res CDY/CDU.to May'09 U$1.20 03-May-09 U$0.87 -27.5% sold on negative news
Eastmain Res. ER.to May'09 C$1.04 06-May-09 C$1.315 26.4% trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v May'09 C$0.165 03-May-09 C$0.235 42.4% trade closed
Latin Amer Min. LAT.v May'09 C$0.12 03-May-09 C$0.158 29.2% trade closed
Aquiline Res. AQI.to July'09 C$2.03 16-Jun-09 C$1.68 -17.2% took loss, bad timing
Chariot Resources CHD.to Aug'09 C$0.20 12-Jul-09 C$0.415 107.5% trade closed
Castle Gold CSG.v Sep'09 C$0.64 02-Aug-09 C$0.60 -6.3% ST trade didn't work out
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to Sep'09 C$2.30 12-May-09 C$4.50 95.7% profit taken
Los Andes Copper LA.v Sep'09 C$0.09 21-Jun-09 C$0.09 0% trade closed
Pediment Gold PEZ.to Oct'09 C$0.80 09-Aug-09 C$1.00 25.0% trade closed
Minera Andes MAI.to Oct'09 C$0.68 03-May-09 C$0.71 4.4% too much bad news
Dynasty Metals DMM.to Nov'09 C$4.18 03-May-09 C$6.01 43.8% half sold
Rusoro Mining RML.v Nov'09 C$0.55 03-May-09 C$0.57 3.6% underperformed
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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