IKN #230Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 230, September 29th 2013
Contents
This Week: Adding to Minera IRL, Trivial pursuits, Macro data.
Fundamental Analysis: Minera IRL (IRL.to) (MIRL.L).
Stocks to Follow: Overview, Eco Oro Minerals (EOM.to), Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v), Rio Alto
Mining (RIO.to) (RIOM), ), Minera IRL (IRL.to) (MIRL.L), MAG Silver (MVG) (MAG.to), Tahoe
Resources (THO.to) (TAHO), Focus Ventures (FCV.v), B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG), AQM Copper
(AQM.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Panoro Minerals (PML.v).
The Lottery Ticket Basket: Overview, Tango (TGV.v), Netco (NEI.v), Marlin (MLN.v).
Regional Politics: Regional risk update revised edition second update.
Market Watching: Keeping an eye on Santa Barbara Resources (SBL.v), Kinross (K.to) (KGC)
not moving forward on La Coipa phase 7 (Pompeya) in Chile, Bear Creek (BCM.v) sets itself on
a collision course with Peru political risk.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Adding to Minera IRL (IRL.to) (MIRL.L)
In the usual style, a quick top-of-report line to make sure trade plans are seen by one and all.
I’m looking to add to my position in Minera IRL next week, at-or-around the current share price.
Therefore the Top Pick gets to grow bigger in absolute size in my portfolio and the cost average
will drop a few pennies, too.
Trivial pursuits
Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury
Signifying nothing.
Macbeth, Act 5, Sc 5, ll 24-28
A couple of thoughts arising from mails received after that intro to the Eco Oro (EOM.to) note
of last week. There’s a difference between the second addition to Top Pick Minera IRL (IRL.to)
(MIRL.L) planned for this week and the other trades that have been the recent fodder at The
IKN Weekly. Since the decision to throttle back earlier in the year, raise cash and add more to
the short side of the portfolio was made, the forays into the market have tended to be small
and near-term oriented. Bellhaven, Colossus Minerals, Duran Ventures, Rio Alto separate, Bear
Creek, Starcore, MAG Silver short and Eco Oro are all examples of this, with some of those now
closed and others with the clock ticking loudly. Others like Pretium and AQM Copper were
planned as investment-type positions but the attitude changed along the way, without
1

forgetting the call to raise a decent chunk of cash by selling half of BTO that really underscored
the current attitude (for me at least).
And so to the point: I’m keenly aware that just about all of the trades mentioned above aren’t
very good reasons for running an investment publication such as The IKN Weekly. The attitude
of scalping a 10% or 30% profit (or loss) here and there by dipping in and out of a nervous
market isn’t the way to make a real difference to anyone’s portfolio, mine very much included.
Earning enough to cover commissions in the Bear Creek Mining isn’t going to change anyone’s
tax bracket, neither is the type of bigger percentage win with smaller money that Bellhaven
gave us a few weeks ago, equally the losses taken in Duran Ventures when that plan was
aborted aren’t going to be sorely remembered further down the line. These near-term trades
are more a case of your author trying to keep his brain working while spinning the wheels and
trying to come to a decent decision about the longer-term prospects for this wild market. One
tentative step towards a more positive viewpoint gets taken today, as I add a few more to a
true investment position in Minera IRL, but that’s only really because the price has gone down
to a place that allows me to make a decent difference to my cost average without worrying
about the long-term effect of buying for 25c or 23c.
Even at the best of times The IKN Weekly isn’t much more than another tiny voice in a very big
market, it’s a trivial thing that with good fortune brings value to a small number of people, you
good self very much included, dear reader. But these are not the best of times and the current
pattern to trying to score a few small trade wins in weeks, rather than decent, game-changing
successes that normally come over timescales that measured in years, dilutes its purpose
further and makes it almost incalculably unimportant document in the great scheme of things.
All importance is relative of course, which is why that opening quote came to mind as this intro
rant began to take shape. Those were some of Macbeth’s final words before dying at the end of
the play and came on his hearing of the death of Lady Macbeth (it’s a tragedy after all, and Bill
Quill didn’t tend to spare many of his characters from a bloody end). The words strike as
nihilistic and fatalist but they also contain a device that Shakespeare was fond of using; by
addressing the subject of the theatre and the actor’s relationship with his audience he often
turned the tables, breaking the suspension of the fantasy world that a theatrical play can bring
to its enrapt audience. Macbeth, who with all grand plans by then turned to dust, had decided
that not even the death of his own wife (and his pending end) mattered any longer, but
Shakespeare the writer rammed this sentiment home to his audience by quietly suggesting to
those present in the Globe Theatre that the play itself, his very writing, was just as trivial.
The IKN Weekly makes no pretense of being a source of literary style and substance and your
author is fully aware that he’s not even fit to clean Shakespeare’s figurative boots. But there’s
nothing wrong with borrowing from a master on occasion and one of the things I’m keen to get
across in this ongoing series of rants and ramblings about the silly little subject we cover. The
trades laid out in The IKN Weekly are one thing, the discussions on economic trends and
political happenings are another, the notes on the wins enjoyed and losses suffered in your
author’s trading portfolio another still, but in my own personal fantasy world I like to think that
from time to time readers are pulled away from a rant or a number-filled narrative and reflect
on the importance, or complete lack thereof, of this crazy junior mining game we play. Nothing
that happens on these pages is important, nothing at all. At best and an optimum result is that
things are provided that become the means to an end, but that’s all there is here. However, I
try to keep the sound and fury away from the weekly and only at the blog ☺.
Macro data (an ironic turn)
So if we have this right (1), if there’s no budget passed by the US Congress before end
September 30th we don’t get an employment report on Friday and without that piece of data,
the Fed won’t be in a position to make a call on tapering at the October FOMC so we’ll keep to
status quo. And that’s good for gold, despite it being the same US macro situation that’s seen
gold drop $400/oz during 2013. That’s because the USA isn’t such a big influence on gold after
all, because demand for the metal is mainly seen in other countries, though it’s priced in dollars
and that’s important because the USA influences the price of its own currency more than any
2

other. And because there’s a big political rift brewing and the US government may be about to
shut down, we may see a crisis of confidence in the world’s biggest and most influential
economy that could cause its currency to weaken as everybody looks for a safe haven for their
investment cash, which is normally the T-bonds priced in dollars that are emitted by the US
government, as they’re understood as the safest investment there is, so as more people run
away from the dollar and hide in the safe haven of dollar bonds, the weakening dollar should
strengthen and compensate for its own weakness, thereby sending a strong message of
confidence to the markets and pushing investments out of safe havens and back into riskier
issues such as equities and away from protection devices such as gold bullion.
Which only points at something that I’ve suspected for years; financial events that are good for
the price of gold are in fact bad for the price of gold.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Adding to Minera IRL (MIRL.L) (IRL.to)
This isn’t going to be a long piece today and more than anything else, it’s an invitation to re-
read the NOBS report of IKN226, dated September 1st 2013. Just four weeks ago we took a
close look at the company after its promotion to Top Pick status on August 19th and made the
case for the stock as an investment position, and since that time, the only thing to have altered
is the share price, up 6.4% (while GLD dropped 4.2% in the same period of time).
What we’ve also seen is a company that’s delivered on its pledges, with the latest being the
fundamentally strong news of the EIA permit approval on Thursday morning. I’ll admit freely
that we didn’t see the type of move in IRL’s share price that was mooted as possible in the
Flash update of Wednesday evening (see appendix 1) and on consideration the probable cause
of that is the market looking and wondering just how IRL plans to raise the capital it requires to
build Ollachea. This is why the IKN226 NOBS report is suggested as further reading, because in
the issue we tackled in some detail the question of how IRL intends to raise for Ollachea and
what it might mean to the share structure and price. By way of reminder here’s a chunk of
script from the report:
From IKN 226 NOBS report
The bottom line is that the base case for financing is a 70% debt / 30% equity deal. There
may be some changes to that if a right terms on another offers (personally I wouldn’t rule
out IRL selling 10% or 20% of Ollachea if the price is right), but the confidence of doing
debt/equity was also clear enough and there seems to be more than enough interest from
the necessary backers on both sides of the deal to make it happen. Overall this is a good
thing because the larger-than-50% debt component will keep share dilution down, but we
also need to take into account what the ~30% in equity would do to the share count.
• If we assume that IRL needs to raise $180m in order to build Ollachea, this puts
the equity component at $54m.
• To simplify the math, let’s assume IRL raises those at-or-around today’s price, at
25c per share in a rights issue.
• That would mean 216m shares added to the pile. In other words, taking into
account today’s S/O number, assuming equity and rounding, we’re looking at a
company that will take its share count to 400m
I agree that’s a bit of an eye-popping number and looks like pretty heavy dilution from here,
but that would be the end of the financing process for IRL and adding Don Nicolas and
Ollachea eventual production together, that would be the share count of a company
producing around 140,000 ounces of lower quartile cash cost gold per year. It’s also worth
noting that if we compare equity per share and price per share of the last quarter ends
(chart right) the very low ratio shows that the market is fully expecting EV/share to be
3

diluted by at least half and probably more. A price/book ratio of just 0.25X is indicative of
either a company that’s past all hope and is
dying a death (which makes no sense in this IRL: Equity per share
case, else IRL would never have closed an 1.60
$80m financing deal for Don Nicolas or be in an 1.40
advanced position for financing Ollachea), or it’s
1.20
a company that’s receiving much less credit for
1.00
its assets than it deserves. What this meta-data
says to your author (and it says it loud) is that 0.80
the the share count could double (I’d go as far 0.60
as to say that the market is expecting it to least 0.40
least double) and the P/BV ratio would still be
0.20
0.5X, leaving a lot of room for the share price to
0.00
grow rapidly when the market suddenly realizes
that IRL isn’t about to roll over and die. This is a
share price that could rebound to 50c very
quickly on the right catalyst.
IKN230 back and I’ve included the chart that went with the script in the NOBS report because
it’s a good visual on what the overly-feared dilution that’s likely for Ollachea’s financing really
means in practice. What we seem to be seeing today is a share price that’s being kept around
the 24c to 25c price and the working theory is that this type of deep discount number suits the
larger money that will source the capex cash, because they get to average down on already
held positions. Meanwhile, this nervous market is hardly one where new spec cash is lining up
to fund fresh ideas, so there’s not a lot of open market pressure on the stock. If we combine
this with IRL’s previously mentioned (to your author) strong confidence that the cash to build
Ollachea is available from financing sources and its clearly stated intent to secure financing and
move that process on as soon as the ESIA was in the company hands, it all points to a financing
deal that’s close to happening, with the equity component at-or-around the current share price.
There may be devils in the details (e.g. bankers like hedging programs to guarantee their
principal, mining companies don’t) and once the deal is closed we’ll have all that to chew over,
but what your author sees at this point is something akin to a last opportunity to fill up at the
current share price for Minera IRL. As I too am underwater on this position (having bought too
early at higher prices) I’m keen to work my cost average down and as long as gold doesn’t slip
down too far, the economics of Ollachea show it to be a profitable operation even before the
high likelihood of mine extension and new discovery kicks in.
That’s a long-winded way of saying that it’s time I added my final tranche of this relatively new
Top Pick position. Unlike just about all other trades in the last six months, this addition won’t be
a near-term trade idea, but the type of investment that I prefer to take along the timeline that
it deserves.
Stocks to Follow
Last week was strange and this week was quiet, the calm after the storm. Of the 14 stocks that
were open this time last week, four made gains (IRL.to, BCM.v, GORO short, MVG short), seven
made a weekly loss (RIO.to, BTO.to, LRA.v, RIO.to trading position, SAM.to, TAHO short,
FCV.v) and three were unchanged (AQM.v, DAR.v, NEI.v), as was the new position in Eco Oro
(EOM.to unch). However, all move bar BCM.v were small, with either smallish percentage
moves or light volume or both. The best performing stock was Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v up
18.9% to the IKN out price of $2.20, or up 20.0% on the week), there were no losers of size.
With the addition of Eco Oro Minerals (EOM.to) and the disposal of Bear Creek (BCM.v) we still
have 14 open positions on our ‘Stocks to Follow’ list, one less than our self-imposed maximum.
4
11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 31q2
equity/share
share price
price/book ratio
source: company filings

Two of the positions are in the green, the new one is unchanged, eleven are red.
Company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
Top Picks
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to buy C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$2.09 -9.1% best LT value
Minera IRL IRL.to str buy C$0.47 22-jul-12 C$0.25 -46.8% top pick called at 24c
Longs
B2Gold BTO.to hold C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$2.63 -14.3% sold 1/2, rest rides. Quality
Lara Expl. LRA.v hold C$1.15 08-apr-12 C$0.88 -23.5% solid biz model, LT hold
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to buy C$2.68 07-jun-13 C$2.09 -22.0% ST trade position, separate
Starcore Intl SAM.to buy C$0.235 08-sep-13 C$0.23 -2.1% new trade, runs to Nov max
Eco Oro Min. EOM.to buy C$0.56 22-sep-13 C$0.56 0.0% new trade, st pol risk play
Shorts
Gold Res Corp GORO short U$9.52 03-may-13 U$6.73 29.3% tgt $5, best short, added
Tahoe Resources TAHO short U$13.10 08-apr-13 U$17.39 -32.7% port hedge, easy2b short
MAG Silver MVG short U$7.00 12-sep-13 U$5.94 15.1% near-term short
Smaller/Riskier
AQM Copper AQM.v hold C$0.31 16-oct-11 C$0.125 -59.7% 6c buy op gone, 15c tgt
Focus Ventures FCV.v spec buy C$0.175 01-jul-12 C$0.135 -22.9% revised tgt 25c
Darwin Res DAR.v hold C$0.10 14-jul-12 C$0.09 -10.0% drill res-Aug'13
Network Expl. NET.v hold C$0.01 22-jul-12 C$0.005 -50.0% V. small spec, foothold
Closed in 2013 closed close price
USA Graphite USGT feb'13 U$0.93 08-jan-13 U$0.17 81.7% short tgt made/trade closed
Lachlan Star LSA.to feb'13 C$1.50 30-sep-12 C$0.95 -36.7% sold to reduce port risk
United Silver USC.to mar'13 C$0.21 28-oct-12 C$0.095 -54.8% small Ag sector trade, failed
Aurcana Corp AUN.v apr'13 C$1.07 11-nov-12 C$0.55 -48.6% closed on poor YE results
Gold Res Corp GORO apr'13 U$14.11 25-jan-13 U$9.38 33.5% short tgt made/trade closed
Marlin Gold MLN.v apr'13 C$0.075 10-feb-13 C$0.065 -13.3% closed trade
Bear Creek BCM.v may'13 C$2.58 01-apr-13 C$2.40 -7.0% near-term, time ran out
Lupaka Gold LPK.to may'13 C$1.12 23-oct-11 C$0.32 -71.4% towel thrown in
Tahoe Resources TAHO may'13 U$18.62 08-apr-13 U$14.70 21.1% took profit on ST short
OceanaGold OGC.to jun'13 C$3.03 16-sep-12 C$1.18 -61.1% sold on gold drop
IMPACT Silver IPT.v jun'13 C$1.14 13-jan-13 C$0.62 -45.6% sold on silver drop
Duran Ventures DRV.v jun'13 C$0.045 10-may-13 C$0.025 -44.4% ST trade never worked
Plata Latina PLA.v jun'13 C$0.79 10-apr-12 C$0.13 -83.5% closed
Bellhaven BHV.v jun'13 C$0.065 03-jun-13 C$0.12 84.6% closed ST trade
B2Gold BTO.to aug'13 C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$3.44 12.1% sold 1/2 to raise cash
Colossus Min. CSI.to aug'13 C$0.72 24-jul-13 C$0.79 9.7% closed thru nerves on future
Pretium Res PVG.to aug'13 C$8.20 11-jun-13 C$10.14 23.7% closed to raise cash
Bear Creek BCM.v sep'13 C$2.06 30-may-13 C$2.20 6.8% sold on pol risk decision
2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 closed positions in appendices below
Now for some notes on a selection of the above stocks.
Eco Oro Minerals (EOM.to): Position opened. It’s been tricky to buy, with asks evaporating
as soon as a bid turns up, but by being patient I got some at 56c average and expect the same
type of strategy will see the position filled to my personal content soon enough (it’s not a big
one, either). As for feedback to last week’s note, I’ll make on general comment on the “I
thought you hated this stock” comments that arrived: It’s capitalism, the coin that says you
shouldn’t fall in love with your stocks has two sides, price governs value. And hell, in the end
it’s only a trade, nobody is going to kill or be killed.
Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v): Position closed. The barest of green endings for this largely
unsatisfactory trade (see appendix 2), so I’ll channel my inner Black Knight (2) and say “All
5

right, we’ll call it a draw”. More on the reasons for dropping BCM in ‘Market Watching’ below.
Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) (RIOM): Apart from watching the stock get walked down to $2 for
a block cross deal and then buoyed back up there wasn’t much action in RIO last week, which
is frustrating in itself because it started and finished at low levels. We’re now about to hit an
important period for newsflow from the company, with production for 3q13 expected to be
around 55k oz Au (that’s better than the market expects), while costs will also be under
scrutiny as oil prices have kept rising in 3q13 and may eat into expected margins if RIO can’t
economize in other areas. I’ve also noticed an uptick in frustrated-type mails from readers and
fellow shareholders regarding RIO, which may be due to the quiet period in newsflow we’ve
been going through alongside the annoying weakness in the share price. For me it’s also a mild
growing pain but the case is as simple as it was one and two weeks ago, RIO.to is a clear
bargain at this level and decent production, a decent reported quarter and the expected flourish
in 4q13 will show that to be true (gold price willing). I continue to be unashamedly bullish on
this company, oversold and misunderstood that it most certainly is.
Minera IRL (MIRL.L) (IRL.to): There’s that note above in fundies that underscores the plans
for this Top Pick position. Last week we didn’t get the type of share price pop posited in the
Flash update (up 4.2% sounds better than “up a penny”, both are correct), but things weren’t
bad either and the volume which greeted the Thursday news (3.56m in London, 676k in
Canada) was wholly positive. Technically speaking, a move over 26c could be considered
breakout material with the next line in the sand around 30c; we have to start somewhere I
suppose.
MAG Silver (MAG.to) (MVG): On Tuesday morning an auto-alert I’d previously set on the
portfolio dinged into life, telling me that my MVG short was now 20% to the good. I’d set it on
opening the position as a “hey man,
maybe you’d think about covering and
taking profits here” headsup, but in the
end Tuesday’s downspike was too quick to
be of much use. When shorting MVG, the
plan was to consider it a near-term
position and also, probably, cover at $5-
and-bits. Well we’re now at a 5-handle for
the stock (and in less than three weeks,
so got there quickly) so it’s turned out
quite well so far, certainly a handy extra
layer of downside protection against the
longs held. But please be clear that this
isn’t a short that has a long way left to go
down (or at least I don’t think so), its
objectives are more modest than those of
the larger GORO short position and I’ll be content enough to take a 20% or 25% pre-commish
win if offer such a thing in the next couple of weeks.
In other news, Dan MacInnis of MAG was at the Denver Gold Show and said (3) that as long as
permits were forthcoming from the Mexico, Juanicipio would be green-lighted for development
“in the next few weeks”, a statement that may have helped the stock’s recovery from the
Tuesday lows. That may turn out to be true, but it doesn’t seem to sit with either the recently
revised MAG timesline for development or with JV operator FRES and its heel-dragging attitude.
MacInnis also made positive sounds about the Cinco de Mayo project, saying that the company
hoped to improve the poor community relations situation (which is totally of their own doing,
but details details etc) and re-start exploration and development there at some point in mid-
2014. Your author’s best guess on that development timescale is closer to ‘when hell freezes
over’, but we’re all allowed an opinion.
Tahoe Resources (TAHO): According to TAHO at Denver last week, construction is now 95%
6

complete and the company is “deep into commissioning”. We do acknowledge that the TAHO
share price has held up better than the average silver play in the last few weeks and as such,
the portfolio hedge component of this short trade hasn’t been working that well recently. Let’s
see how the ramping process goes in the quarter to come.
Focus Ventures (FCV.v): After the recent spurt of interest on its phosphate plans, FCV trades
went back into hibernation and market trades were limited to just Wednesday. It’s now pretty
clear that the financing is scheduled around the current price, so I expect it’s a case of the
company lining up willing sponsors and getting the placement done, as until then there’s
unlikely to be anything doing.
B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG): BTO seems to have found a floor level at $2.60, which may make
the stock tradable for those so inclined to scalp pennies. The company made its share of bullish
noise on its prospects at the Denver bash, with the main thrust being how it’s a perfectly
profitable company even with gold at $1,300/oz. Easy to hold from here.
AQM Copper (AQM.v): I watched this Q&A interview (Spanish language) published in Peru’s
Gestión business newspaper last week (4) which added to my meeting the week before last at
Perumin with the interviewee, Juana Rosa Del Castillo, the (fairly) new manager of the Zafranal
project and came away nonplussed with what I heard. I now know that the partners at Zafranal
(AQM has its 30% share) have a 2014 exploration plan and budget taking shape for the project,
so next year will see more action from the project and that might filter through to further
improvement in the company share price, but it now looks as though my pencilled in dump
price of 15c isn’t about to materialize in the months to come and it may be time to liquidate at
the current 11c or 12c level. No decision yet and no rush felt, but this one has dragged on for
too long and at some point the loss will have to be realized.
The Copper Basket
After thirty-nine weeks of 2013 The Copper Basket is showing a 20.44% loss to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/13 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Augusta Res AZC.to 2.43 144.35 304.58 2.11 -13.2%
2 NGEx Resources NGQ.to 3.40 168.66 301.90 1.79 -47.4%
3 Copper Fox CUU.v 0.83 402.96 229.69 0.57 -31.3%
4 Lumina Copper LCC.v 9.43 43.61 220.23 5.05 -46.4%
5 Reservoir Min. RMC.v 2.41 41.68 202.56 4.86 101.7%
6 Nevada Copper NCU.to 3.50 80.5 195.62 2.43 -30.6%
7 Hot Chili Ltd HCH.ax 0.72 297.46 121.96 0.41 -43.1%
8 NovaCopper NCQ.to 1.80 53.02 104.98 1.98 10.0%
9 Panoro Minerals PML.v 0.62 204.71 82.91 0.405 -34.7%
10 Western Copper WRN.to 1.39 93.68 70.26 0.75 -46.0%
11 Curis Resources CUV.to 0.70 63.13 39.14 0.62 -11.4%
12 Candente Copper DNT.to 0.375 122.05 31.73 0.26 -30.7%
13 Oracle Mining OMN.to 0.80 49.03 18.39 0.375 -53.1%
14 Yellowhead Min. YMI.to 0.59 63.45 13.01 0.205 -65.3%
15 Strait Minerals SRD.v 0.08 57.26 4.01 0.07 -12.5%
NB: HCH.ax priced in AUD$, rest CAD$ Portfolio avg -20.44%
Another set of numbers that had a calmer week. Six of our Copper Basket stocks put in a
weekly gain (NGQ.to, LCC.v, NCU.to, WRN.to, NCQ.to, YMI.to), eight showed losses (AZC.to,
CUU.v, HCH.ax, PML.v, RMC.v, DNT.to, OMN.to, CUV.to) and just one stayed unchanged
7

(SRD.v), though nothing moved up
or down in double figure
percentages and most trading was
light. The overall average lost 0.9%,
which was in line with the small
movements
We’re not ¾ of the year in and so
let’s check on the development of
the league table for our Copper
Basket components. As you can see,
we now have a very clear leader of
the pack, Reservoir Minerals at
100%+ gains, Then comes the only
other to show green ink,
NovaCopper (NCQ.to) and all the others are down on the year. Best of the rest are the a-bit-
over-ten-percent losses felt by CUV.to, SRD.v and AZC.to.
The Copper Basket: Component performance after
110% 39 weeks
90%
70%
50%
30%
10%
-10%
-30%
-50%
-70%
-90%
8
v.CMR ot.QCN ot.VUC v.DRS ot.CZA ot.UCN ot.TND v.UUC v.LMP xa.HCH ot.NRW v.CCL ot.QGN ot.NMO ot.IMY
source: IKN data
After those, things get a bit rougher and if we offer up a second chart that shows all the
components except RMC.v (below), we get a clearer picture of the losses incurred.
The Copper Basket: Component performance after
30% 39 weeks (without RMC.v)
10%
-10%
-30%
-50%
-70%
-90%
ot.QCN ot.VUC v.DRS ot.CZA ot.UCN ot.TND v.UUC v.LMP xa.HCH ot.NRW v.CCL ot.QGN ot.NMO ot.IMY
Copper Basket 2013 average, weekly
12%
8%
4%
0%
-4%
-8%
-12%
-16%
-20%
-24%
-28%
-32%
source: IKN data
None of the other performances are great, but the ~30% losers such as NCU.to and CUU.v do
look better than the 65% loss taken at YMI.to. By the way, the light grey bars show where
things stood after 1q13 and the darker grey was the standings after 2q13, therefore a case for
improvement can be made for some of the names, such as PML.v, WRN.to, SRD.v.
Back to the week’s highlights and copper market prices did what you can see in this chart, with
$3.30/lb broken to the upside on reasonably bullish macro data from China and the US, though
yet again nothing definitive.
ht6naj ht31 ht02 ht72 r3bef ht01 ht71 ht42 dr3ram ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpa ht41 ts12 ht82 t5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92
source: IKN calcs, TSX data
31/1/1
morf
egnahc
%

One of the reasons for better copper market prices
was the ongoing de-stocking tendency at the
world’s warehouses. This week world stocks
dropped by 41,439mt, or 5.4%, to stand at
702,478mt. Of that total, the biggest drop was
seen at the LME, down 5.8% to 541,125mt.
Comex was down 5.9% to 28,359mt and Shanghai
Futures Exchange warehouse stocks also dropped,
by 3.9% to 150,994mt.
As it’s the end of another month (bar one day)
here are our monthly tracking charts for
inventories and the differences in absolute
Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
tonnages held are clear,
though notably the
percentages (~75% for LME)
haven’t moved that much. As
for cancelled warrants at the
LME, they clicked up a bit last
week, back at 50.8% of total
stocks.
That’s a lot of copper macro
chart stuff this week, so less
stocktalk and just the quickest
word on one name.
Panoro Minerals (PML.v): A date for your diaries is the third week in October, as PML is
scheduled to do the rounds of brokerages in Vancouver and Toronto that week in order to
convince the great and the good (and anal ysts) that their company is the veritable bees knees.
The Lottery Ticket Basket
After 39 weeks of 2013 The Lottery Ticket Basket is showing a 33.85% loss to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/13 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
9
21.naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 31.naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes
Copper inventories, per month 2012/2013
1000000
LME Shanghai Comex
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
source: Cochilco
21.naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 31.naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes
Mt Cu
LME Shanghai Comex
source: Cochilco
Cancelled Warrants at LME, IKN157 to date
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
751NKI 951NKI 161NKI 361NKI 561NKI 761NKI 961NKI 171NKI 371NKI 571NKI 771NKI 971NKI 181NKI 381NKI 581NKI 781NKI 981NKI 191NKI 391NKI 591NKI 791NKI 991NKI 102NKI 302NKI 502NKI 702NKI 902NKI 112NKI 312NKI 512NKI 712NKI 912NKI 122NKI 322NKI 522NKI 722NKI 922NKI
source: Cochilco, LME
rof
yrotnevni
EML
%
latot
yreviled
resu-dne

1 Marlin Gold MLN.v 0.10 680 68.00 0.100 0.0%
2 Eagle Star Min. EGE.v 0.125 79.13 15.83 0.200 60.0%
3 AQM Copper AQM.v 0.08 105.57 13.20 0.125 56.3%
4 Bellhaven BHV.v 0.14 136.81 11.63 0.085 -39.3%
5 Fancamp Expl. FNC.v 0.125 177 7.97 0.045 -64.0%
6 Tango Gold TGV.v 0.13 76.24 5.34 0.070 -46.2%
7 Inca One Res. IO.v 0.12 34.0 3.06 0.090 -25.0%
8 Copper North COL.v 0.10 58.7 2.94 0.050 -50.0%
9 Darwin Resources DAR.v 0.20 26.16 2.35 0.090 -55.0%
10 Netco Silver NEI.v 0.075 9.4 1.97 0.210 68.0%
11 Gryphon Gold GGN.to 0.085 194.64 1.95 0.010 -88.2%
12 Glass Earth GEL.v 0.155 105.67 1.59 0.015 -90.3%
13 Cream Minerals CMA.v 0.03 155.34 0.78 0.005 -83.3%
14 Rio Cristal RCZ.v 0.025 17.259 0.69 0.040 -84.0%
15 Firestone Ventures FV.v 0.045 36.82 0.55 0.015 -66.7%
Portfolio avg -33.85%
Another week when the tinycaps were
25% Lottery Ticket Basket 2013 average, weekly
ignored. We had just two of our stocks
20%
go up, but to their credit both Marlin 15%
10%
Gold (MLN.v up 25.0%) and Netco Silver
5%
(NEI.v up 40.0%) put in big moves. A 0%
-5%
full seven of our names remained -10%
unchanged (GGN.to, GEL.v, AQM.v, -15%
-20%
TGV.v, COL.v, DAR.v, FV.v) which -25%
indicates the apathy and then five others -30%
-35%
went down (BHV.v, FNC.v, EGE.v, -40%
-45%
CMA.v, RCZ.v), with tow of those
adjusting down by 50% (CMA.v and
RCZ.v) as the penny-sized death rattle
continues.
Tango Gold Mines (TGV.v): We can confirm that TGV.v is about to hit the streets of Europe
on a marketing push and is looking to target high net worth individuals for additional financing.
This points to a company looking to run a non-brokered private placement more than getting an
immediate boost to its share price (though you never know, the two may go hand in hand).
This is one of the few nanocaps on the list that isn’t dead yet, so we’ll keep an eye on
newsflow. The general plan remains to produce a PEA, raise the type of cash needed to put a
small mill into operation by next year, create easy cash flow. A lot depends on the raising of
cash, therefore.
Netco Silver (NEI.v): It’s not something that’s particularly tradable, but my eye is naturally
drawn to strange trading patterns so a word on the recent moves in NEI.v is due. What we
have is a company that in the last two weeks has seen a 100%+ improvement in its share
price. That’s not a bad thing of course, but the mystery is that since dropping its Argentina
silver concessions, NEI still doesn’t have a project of merit on board and is basically a shell
company.
Not only that, but its financial point to it being a shell that’s no sort of a bargain. As at end
2q13 it had total assets of $52k and total liabilities of $151k, for a working capital of negative
$100,000, give or take a few hundred dollars. And since that time, it’s borrowed a further
$60,000 ($50k of that from a director, Steve Vestergaard, who’s new at the company and
clearly has plans for his new vehicle, though his background as a video games company
director is less of a fit) which it’s paying back at a 12% interest rate and also gave a chunk of
bonus warrants to the lenders as part of the deal. Right now it’s in the process of running a
10
ht6naj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3bef ht01 ht71 ht42 dr3ram ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpa ht41 ts12 ht82 t5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 s12 ht82 ht4gua ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1pes ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92
source: IKN Weekly data, TSX
2102/1/1
morf
egnahc
%

placement that will add 10m units (1 share, full warrant) and raise $500k, with which it will
presumably pay off its debts and use the rest
as working capital.
In other words, if this placement closes as
expected and the current share price is
maintained, NEI.v will be a ~20m share out
company with a ~$4m market cap, no
project of merit and $300k in cash at bank.
If we compare that to the NEX market
(where juniors go to die) I’m told that today
you can get control of a nicely scrubbed and
clean structure junior for as little as
$300,000. Curiouser and curiouser...
All in all it’s a rather strange move in NEI.v
these last few days. Time will tell whether the company has made progress on the type of deal
in the O&G sphere that it’s been looking to do and whether it will make the new structure
worthy of this new price.
Marlin Gold (MLN.v): For less than $10,000 worth of stock traded over the whole week, MLN
added $13.6m to its market cap. That’s the way these things happen at the micro end of the
market. Once again, take any more up or down with a pinch of salt if it’s not accompanied by
volume.
Regional politics
Regional risk update, revised edition, second update
This week sees our regular end-of-quarter overview of the region’s political risk scene for junior
mining. This is the second time for the new, revised format with the first one seen in IKN218.
Previously, the old style ran every quarter until IKN204.
A little reminder of the scoring categories and system, which is dealt with in detail in IKN218
but a quick reminder here makes sense. First the six categories:
a) National Government Miner Friendly: The country on its national stance towards
mining activity.
b) Community/Social Miner Friendly: The overall attitude of locals towards mining,
11

either in specific zones or in country regions.
c) Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Friendly: The openness towards FDI and the
safeguards it gives to foreign capital looking for a home.
d) Mining Culture: Countries or regions with generational traditions in mining are easier
places in which to operate than those which have little previous exposure to formal
mining operations.
e) Geopolitical Optics: The way in which the outside world sees this country, an
important factor, no matter if the perception be right or wrong.
f) Internal/National Political Stability: A gauge of how stable the country in question
is politically.
Second, these days we concentrate on nine countries with the potential to host companies,
rather than try to offer a comprehensive LatAm-wide view that takes in countries with little or
no appeal for investment or speculation in juniors. Therefore we focus on Chile, Peru, Mexico,
Brazil, Colombia, Nicaragua, Dominican Republic, Argentina and Guatemala. We also tip a hat
towards three other potential jurisdictions in Panama, Uruguay and Guyana, but that’s about as
far as we go. The other countries listed are best considered as being watched, not much else.
So without further ado, here’s the updated table. Below come the country notes.
September'13 Latin American Country Risk For Foreign Mining Companies
Nat. Govt Community/Social Geopolitical Internal Nat.
Country FDI Friendly Mining Culture Total
Miner Friendly Miner Friendly Optics Political Stability
LatAm countries under active consideration for junior mining project location
Chile 9 7 7 10 9 9 51
Peru 9 6 8 9 7 7 46
Mexico 8 6 7 9 7 7 44
Brazil 7 5 7 8 9 8 44
Colombia 7 4 9 6 8 6 40
Nicaragua 8 6 7 6 5 6 38
Dom Rep 6 5 6 5 6 7 35
Argentina 8 5 3 6 3 5 30
Guatemala 7 2 5 3 4 4 25
Potentially relevant LatAm countries for junior mining
Panama 6 5 9 3 9 7 39
Uruguay 7 4 7 3 8 9 38
Guyana 8 5 6 5 4 3 31
Countries of little or no interest for junior mining exposure
Bolivia 3 5 2 9 2 7 28
Paraguay 5 5 6 2 3 5 26
Honduras 7 4 4 5 2 2 24
Ecuador 4 1 3 4 4 7 23
Costa Rica 1 1 5 1 6 7 21
Haiti 6 3 4 1 3 3 20
El Salvador 1 1 4 1 6 7 20
Venezuela 1 5 1 3 1 6 17
source: The IKN Weekly house estimates
Active consideration countries
12

Chile: Community/Social Miner Friendly up 1 point, FDI Friendly down 1 point,
Geopolitical optics down 1 point
Chile still sits at the top of our risk tree by quite some distance and isn’t about to lose its well-
deserved position as the best place to go mining in LatAm in the indefinite future, but the
overall score is a point lower than last quarter. Some of the doubts raised by the Pascua Lama
development halt (e.g. the community opposition, the judicial decisions against the company,
government backing of judiciary in official statements) have now abated and the projects going
ahead, as well as Chilean governmental will to tackle and improve the power generation supply
bottlenecks (spot power prices in the key North regions are down to their lowest levels since
2009 this month) have helped Chile get its mining mojo back. However, the country has taken
an image hit and that may continue as Chile’s parliament is now debating on whether to
implement a “Glacier Law” that may delay development of high Andean projects. Preliminary
pronouncements on the law project are due around this time (5) and if, as is rumoured, Chile
decides to include so-called “rock glaciers” (aka black glaciers) in a protection law bill (i.e. areas
of high mountain where water is stored frozen just beneath the surface) its effect on timelines
for projects at altitude may be greater than the industry currently anticipates.
Peru: Internal National Political Stability up 1 point
There have been a lot of issues floating aorund Peru in the last quarter and as usual it’s a
patchwork of good and bad political news for companies and projects working there. To the
negative are the ongoing impasse in Cajamarca (Conga et al), the Cañariaco project going
nowhere fast, another strike at Shougang (pay and conditions, as usual) and strike actions by
informal (aka artisanal, though “illegal” fits just as well in most cases) miners that give those
who want to focus only on bad news more than enough to play with. On the other hand there
have been plenty of positives too, with the government’s new-found willingness to make
permitting easier in the country top of the list. We’ve seen this with drilling and water use
permits finally popping out the other end of the bureaucratic chain at a much faster pace, we’ve
also seen it with environmental impact permit approvals coming for three junior mining projects
(Sulliden’s Shahuindo, Bear Creek’s Corani, IRL’s Ollachea) in quick succession. Also, the fact
that Chinese money is now forming an orderly queue in the pre-bidding process for
Glencore/Xstrata’s disposal sale of Las Bambas shows that there’s plenty of interest in large
capex ticket projects in the country.
When it comes to scoring all these things it’s often a case of balancing one item against the
other and considering the fabric of the bigger picture instead of specific issues. Peru and Mexico
are probably the toughest balancing acts of the lot, because local issues matter a lot and
override national policies on a regular basis. Therefore, the only adjustment being made to the
headline score for Peru is on a national political scale and the country gets a point added. The
Ollanta Humala government has now settled into the type of slightly disliked rut that’s been the
norm in Peru for the last decade (no matter who is head of state) and the country’s focus on
economic growth continues as per normal too. The country’s preference for neoliberal policy is
being called neither good or bad on these pages, it is being called a clear reality and there
seems to be little in the way of serious opposition (outside of small reactionary groups) to
change the course. As always, it’s vital to know your specific region in Peru and community
relations are a paramount issue, not something that can be ignored and addressed at a later
date. But overall, as long as the locality is acceptable and your management team is fully
switched on about how to do mining business in Peru, the country remains a happy hunting
ground for junior mining development, for both producers and explorers.
Mexico: National Government Miner Friendly down 1 point, Community/Social Miner
Friendly down 1 point, Geopolitical optics down 1 point
Mexico has been the most interesting country for mining political risk affairs in the last quarter,
as in the Chinese curse “may you live in interesting times”. The trends have included the rise in
community opposition to mining projects (particularly open pit type) and the government’s
proposed to raise the state burden on mining companies via a royalty system of payment of
7.5% (plus another 0.5% for precious metals miners) on pre-tax earnings (rather than mine
13

gate revenues) which has the sector up in arms.
To take the second item first, as it happens the Enrique Peña Nieto government’s plan to levy
its royalty on what amounts to EBIT is most likely a negotiation position. We called it as such
on these pages a few weeks ago and the consensus of the heads of mining companies with
Mexico exposure at the Denver Gold Show last week was exactly that call; that the EPN admin
is faking a hard line in order to pass the type of proposal that went through the lower house of
parliament earlier in the year, hat of a 5% royalty on gross revenues, with less pushback from
the mining companies. However, the image that EPN is sending abroad isn’t a good one,
especially at a time when mining margins are being crimped hard (and often to non-existence in
the more marginal precious metals mining projects) so there’s a case to be made for a country
that’s in the process of shooting itself in the foot and deterring future FDI from flowing its way,
hence the one point drop in geopolitical optics.
The royalty law (best guess 5%) will eventually pass and be incorporated into the reality of
mining in Mexico without much fuss over the long term. However, community opposition to
projects isn’t such a transitory thing as the royalty issue and looks set to grow. In general terms
I ask readers to look to the current situation in Peru as the model for Mexico’s future, as the
past history of easy access to new concessions and little or no local or community consultation
on mining projects in Mexico over the last few years seems to be pointing us towards the way
in which Peru has this patchwork of projects, some accepted and acceptable, others with some
opposition and some that are vehemently rejected by local residents (and for a whole range of
reasons). Baja California Sur, Chiapas have now been joined by Morelos, Veracruz, Oaxaca and
even SL Potosi, and the latest is that the patchwork of anti-mining pressure groups are joining
together to form into a nationally organized association.
Brazil: Community/Social Miner Friendly down 1 point
The normal bugbear of miners (esp junior miners) in Brazil is the bureaucratic stodge that the
country throws at companies, but this quarter has for a change featured community and social
pushback on projects instead of the normal national problems. To a certain extent the two go
hand in hand in Brazil, because those opposed to the development of a project (for ecological,
social/community or whatever else reason) can use the country’s legal and permitting system to
halt or slow down development. As LatAm trend towards more environmental protection is as
evident in Brazil as anywhere else, the legal system is ready to help them (and hinder the
miner). The situation at Colossus Minerals (CSI.to) is something of a one-off and is steeped in
its own local history, but ones such as Belo Sun (BSX.to) at Volta Grande are more typical and
not only face serious delays, but face having to explaon to the market just why timelines are
being stretched.
The other main development in the Brazil mining sector is the ongoing (and slow, as was
always to be expected) passage of the royalties changes in the country. As things stand today
the vote to raise mining royalties from the current generally paid 2% to a generally paid 4%
(with specific exceptions) is expected next month , with Oct 20th currently slated as the big day
in Brasilia. The national-versus-local political situation as regards royalties and where the funds
end up are the main reason for delays in the law passage and a lot of the debate is about who
gets what, rather than what the miners will eventually pay. However, even when (rather than
if) royalty payments move to 4% in Brazil the country will still be a competitive place to go
mining, even more so now that the dollar/Real forex rate has relaxed. It touched as high as
R$2.44 = U$1 in mid-August (on overselling) and is back down to R$2.25, but that’s still a lot
better than the ~R$2 to U$1 rate we’d been getting used to and official government policy
speeches in the last few days make it clear that the Dilma government doesn’t want the Real to
strengthen back for the time being.
Colombia: National Government Miner Friendly up 1 point, Internal National
Political Stability up 1 point
Colombia was the great new hope two or three years ago, then its reputation went downhill
fast due to a lack of law reform and regional political issues (as well as the realization that the
14

FARC isn’t the spent force that government tried to make it out as being, or that the far right
wing paramilitaries weren’t as demobilized as the happy shiny propaganda said). But the good
news here is that it seems as though Colombia is finally getting its collective act together.
First up, we have the progress being made in the negotiations between the Santos government
at the FARC which has been slow but has also been steady. The fact that the two sides are still
talking and have reached preliminary agreements on several key issues is strongly positive in
itself (for detailed coverage in English, the Just the Facts blog run by WOLA (6) is an
unbeatable source) and the likely knock-on effect is that current President Juan Manuel Santos
will get re-elected next year (the next presidential election is set for August 7th 2014) due to the
general public approval in Colombia on how the talks are going [sidebar: Santos has suggested
that he run on a two year ticket, then after that step down with a new rule in place that gives
any future President one single six year term, instead of the current 2x4 year potential terms].
We haven’t mentioned much about this issue here at the Weekly so far, but a close eye is being
kept on the FARC/Govt peace talks because if successful, a lot more of the country that’s
currently too dangerous to explore will be opened up to mining development.
The next factor that’s going Colombia’s way is that it looks as though it’s finally getting its
lawmaking act together. We’ve seen the resolution of the concessions freeze in the last three
months and the upcoming environmental boundary decision on the Páramo de Santurbán
(we’re long EOM.to because of this) promises to be the first active decision on environmental
boundaries to favour the mining industry in years. We’re still waiting for the much-delayed
mining reform laws to pass congress but that’s now making progress as well, which will mean
that Colombia will finally have the type of legal framework in place that will allow juniors to
successfully and confidently move from exploration to production stages.
It’s still not a perfect world out there for miners in Colombia; AngloGold Ashanti can point to the
community problems it’s having at the massive (and politically important) La Colosa project,
Eike Batista’s fall from grace has put the AUX Ventana Gold project on ice (apparently the
Batista companies have no head in Colombia any longer) and delays at many projects weigh
upon the country risk profile. So there’s still a lot to improve if Colombia is going to get its
momentum back, but the last quarter has seen the country make headway on several fronts
and what we can say is that investment cash is still flowing into the Colombia natural resource
sector. The latest figures from the Colombian Banco de la Republica show net Foreign Direct
Investment up by 5% to U$8.28Bn in the first half of 2013, compared to the same period in
2012, with 58.9% of the FDI taken in the O&G and hard rock mining sector (Colombia has a
slightly annoying official system that lumps together O&G and hard rock mining into the “mining
industry”, so it’s often impossible to get a better breakdown on how much is going into the sub-
sectors).
Nicaragua: Community/Social Miner Friendly down 1 point
The rise of Nicaragua as a mining destination has been the success story of the sector in LatAm
these last few years, with much of the credit due to B2Gold (BTO.to) for its pathfinding role
(hey, shareholder or not, credit where it’s due). It’s still for me a great place for juniors to set
up shop and probably the last bargain place on the continent that comes with a decent
reputation, but we’re starting to get a few headwinds and they need to be recognized. One
comes from local mining concerns, typically small informal mining companies or cooperative
groups that work veins in the old and dangerous pick/shovel style, that are complaining about
the preference given to the formal mining companies and how they’re being driven out of
business as a result. It’s a natural thing for national governments to prefer companies that pay
taxes and work in safe conditions, but that doesn’t stop the old-timers from kicking up a fuss,
setting roadblocks (most recently at BTO Libertad mine) and playing the nationalism card (e.g.
“foreigners taking all our gold leaving us with nothing”). We’re also seeing the first concerted
efforts from environmental groups to stop mining companies from exploration and development
of projects and although it’s minor level compared to the situations in Costa Rica, El Salvador or
Guatemala, we’re now seeing some local protests about the arrival of mining companies,
particularly in the lesser developed North-East of Nica.
15

Overall though, this is still a very good option for juniors and these days I take more interest in
a company that works Nicaragua than most other places. The recent deal that saw Colombia’s
large private mining company Mineros S.A. buy out the private Nicaragua based gold miner
Hemco underscored the growing reputation it has.
Dominican Republic: National Government Miner Friendly up 1 point
The good news here is that the government spat with Barrick Pueblo Viejo (60% ABX, 40% GG)
is now resolved and a deal has been struck which looks like a win-win. For this reason alone,
Dom Rep gets a point added to its score. The country’s policy to fast-track permits for those
juniors wishing to come and explore is on the books too and although we haven’t seen many
takers yet, that’s probably more to do with the poor state of the sector and the lack of juniors
willing to take new risks and expand on new horizons at the moment.
Argentina: Unchanged
Goldcorp’s (GG) Chuck Jeannes summed up the conventional wisdom on Argentina at the
Denver Gold Show last week when saying (7) that any new investment would be “very difficult”
due to the government, monetary and labour issues encountered there. Jeannes main focus is
the Cerro Negro project in Santa Cruz and he was particularly peeved about the 1% tax on in-
situ reserves that the provincial government has decided to levy on deposits there (no word on
whether merely having resources gives a loophole yet), but the problems that official inflation
and exchange rates bring when compared to the likely reality are also high on the list (the main
result is ever-rising costs in the official dollar terms that companies must work under).
However, things such as the deal Minera IRL has sealed with local money (the source a car
parts plant in Tierra del Fuego with a long history of profitable business in Argentina but with a
need to invest rather than remit profits) show that doing business in the country is possible and
alongside the problematic business scene, the official political support for mining business at a
national level, as well as from those provinces deemed “miner friendly” in the patchwork that is
Argentina, are pointers towards a better future.
Your author has made a distinction between high capex and low capex projects in the country
for many months, with those needing big ticket expenditures called as a plain avoid. What
we’ve seen from the stock price of Lumina Copper (LCC.v) has underscored that call, as has Mr.
Jeannes all-but admitting that he wasted $4Bn of company cash by buying Cerro Negro, but the
smaller capex deal (e.g. IRL at Don Nicolas) is another kettle of fish. The country is not for the
risk averse amongst you, but the right small capex footprint project run by people who know
how to operate in a high inflation environment could offer a bargain still.
Guatemala: Unchanged
It’s unchanged because things have stayed roughly the same over the last quarter (with most
eyes trained on Tahoe Resources at Escobal to see how the ramping up process goes there),
but unchanged isn’t necessarily a good thing. It doesn’t mean things can’t change quickly
either, as Guatemala is still an unstable place with regions that are still ungovernable from the
centre (with an AK-47 mob attacking a police station (8) and successfully rescuing a local leader
from arrest this weekend in the northern drug-raddled Huehuetenango region case in point,
though the arrest and related problems are also obviously connected to local resistance against
a hydro-electric power station project (9)), so any air of stability should never be taken as some
sort of norm.
Potentially relevant countries
Panama: National Government Miner Friendly down 1 point, Community/Social
Miner Friendly up 1 point
It’s one of those situations where I’d like to like Panama more. The country is booming
economically and mining companies have had a welcome mat rolled out for them by the sitting
government, but word from those who are exposed to the country is of bureaucratic swamps
16

and the need to either pay bribes or wait in a long line behind the rest. The community
situation is still in flux as well, with indigenous locals firmly against some projects and effective
at delaying their progress, despite having to face strong-arm government tactics. But the way
in which the First Quantum (ex-Inmet) Cobre Panama project is moving forward (latest is that
plant construction should begin next year) gives more than a little room for real hope that
serious, formal mining is coming to the country.
Uruguay: Community/Social Miner Friendly down 1 point
The rumblings out of Uruguay in recent months are of a country that’s keen at a governmental
level to promote responsible mining projects, but also of a population that’s getting its anti-
mining environmental-based opposition to mining projects more organized and serious. The
result is that the Mujica government hasn’t paid much more than lip-service to its pro-mining
stance in the period. It has to be pointed out that in a small population country (Uruguay has
3.3m people, with 50% of those living in the capital, Montevideo) with a high level of education
compred to just about any country in LatAm and greatly dependent on agro for its living
standards, large-scale mining projects and a wholesale move to making open pit mines a part
of the country fabric is always going to be a hard sell. There is a space for specific projects, but
the environmental cause is always going to have a strong hand whihc is why we call Uruguay as
potentially interesting if the right project comes along, rather than any great new area play for
the industry.
Other countries
Bolivia: National Government Miner Friendly down 2 points
The latest from Bolivia is a law passed that allows the government to take back without penalty
and nationalize any mining concession deemed to be dormant and privately owned, with
estimates of the number of concessions potentially affected ranging around 2,000 of the 9,700
concessions currently granted in the country. Bolivia’s mining industry isn’t about to go away
and between the privately owned mines being run successfully, the large numbers of local co-
operatives and the State-run operations will continue to be a significant part of the nation’s
economy. However, it’s been clear for a long while that there’s no room for the speculative
exploration junior and the latest law underscores that fact. Good for mining, but not for
capitalism.
Ecuador: National Govt Miner Friendly up 1 point, Geopolitical optics up 1 point
I‘m not about to change my (or anyone else’s mind) on the dire junior mining scenario in
Ecuador, but it has to be said that the country is now trying its hardest to become attractive to
foreign mining capital (perhaps the lessons from the Kinross Fruta del Norte episode are finally
sinking in). Ecaudor’s State run mining company Enami is now trying to move forward in JV
with Chile’s Codelco and the larger scale projects are being offered, mainly to Chinese capital
(which normally prizes a guarantee of resource supply to home over profitmaking ability) on the
back of the Mirador development project. All that and Correa’s decision to move ahead with the
Yasuni crude oil project in the jungle region of the country are signs that Ecuador is serious
about its natural resource projects. However, the basic problems of complete inexperience in
formal mining, high State burdens and plenty of community opposition to projects remain and
are more than enough to put anyone off exposing their portfolio to Ecuador.
Venezuela: Internal National Political Stability up 1 point
Considering all the constant negative noise around Venezuela in both English and Spanish
language coverage of the country, the call to add to its points total may seem strange at first
sight, particularly in the category of national political stability. But the fact is that the new
Maduro government has ridden out the worst of the early storm regarding opposition claims of
fixed elections and so forth and is now pretty much firmly installed as a real active government.
It’s still the worst place to have a junior mining company in Latin America and that’s not about
to change, so please don’t touch this place with a bargepole when it comes to capital
investment (in mining or in anything else, for that matter). But don’t expect the woeful
17

opposition to be able to change the direction of the country, mediocre as its new President is.
Conclusion
This ends our quarterly regional political risk round-up. The overall tendency is that of a region
that’s tightening up rules for miners and that’s not such a good things for the free-market way
of thinking, with environmental laws, more organized opposition and extra tax burdens the
continued trends. Of all the countries covered, the best impressions from the quarter come
from Colombia and Peru. Colombia has the look of a country that’s finally turning a corner in its
efforts to make itself miner-friendly, while Peru’s permitting process has suddenly got a lot
easier, which will encourage those companies who want to do the basic things such as drill and
develop. Whether or not the metals market price window has passed them by already is
another question, though. Until end December for the next installment.
Market Watching
Keeping an eye on Santa Barbara Resources (SBL.v)
We mentioned it in IKN227 September 8th the very next day Santa Barbara (SBL.v) announced
it had started its drilling program at the Sancos
project in JV with Rio Alto (RIO.to) and now, 20
days later (the type of timeframe we’d expect
from preliminary examination of a drill hole or
three) we get a price pop to 9c, from the
generally available 6c of the last couple of
weeks. Volumes have yet to convince anyone
but the tea-leaf reading signs aren’t bad here,
so we again bring this tiny junior to your
attention.
Disclosure: No position.
Kinross (K.to) (KGC) not moving forward on La Coipa phase 7 (Pompeya) in Chile
The saga of the Kinross (K.to) (KGC) La Coipa gold mine in Chile is apparently coming to an
end. In March K decided to wind down production at La Coipa by the end of this year due to
high cash costs, but there was still the potential for its development project on site, the so-
called phase 7 or Pompeya development, to grant extra mine life And in July K started the
environmental permitting procedure for phase 7 earmarking $200m for the project if approved,
with the last official word from the company this weekend still being (10) “The Company is
continuing to assess the remaining mineral reserves and resources and exploration potential at
La Coipa, including the future potential of La Coipa Phase 7(Pompeya)”. However, last week
Chilean press reported (11) has pulled the plug on its permitting track for Coipa phase 7, which
is a de facto closure notice for the mine in 4q13.
Bear Creek (BCM.v) sets itself on a collision course with Peru political risk
Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) got a lift from the market when announcing its ESIA permit approval
last week, but after considering the angles your author decided it was time to sell the stock
(see appendix 2). One of the reasons was that the so-called “near-term trade” had been on the
books since May and four months was rather stretching the timeline. Another was that adding
to the cash position is a smart move at most times, with that doubly so in these nervy markets.
But the one that tipped the balance and most featured in the Flash update decision to sell the
stock was the way in which BCM is once again keen on hitching the fate of Corani with that of
its Santa Ana project, also in Puno.
Let’s see what BCM CEO Andrew Swarthout says about the situation, according to this Reuters
report from the Denver Gold Forum (12):
18

"We are working very, very hard now that Corani is on a safe path to recover
Santa Ana," said Swarthout, adding that he expects to know by yearend if a
resolution will be possible.
"This is just not the time to finance it," said Swarthout. "Especially when there
exists a possibility, and a good one I think, of recovering Santa Ana."
Meanwhile, along with the carrot comes the stick, as at the same time in Spanish language
media, VP Corp Development Andrés Franco (who has probably put his job on the line with this
strategy) told reporters (13) (translated), “At this moment we’re looking to open doors in order
to converse on the subject. The objective is to overcome conflicts that might go to international
tribunals and come to an agreement in which the State and the company can solve their
problem”. That main problem is that the Alan García government, just before leaving office,
cancelled the Santa Ana concession in order to stop the protests by Aymara people in Puno that
were threatening both the region and the good order of the Presidential election going on at
the time.
We could go on here and add layers of detail, but the bottom line is simple enough: Now that it
has the ESIA permit, BCM has decided to leverage its newly strengthened position and is saying
that if Peru wants them to build Corani, they need to get Santa Ana back. If not, BCM is going
to take Peru to the international beak.
This is extremely stupid. It gets to the point where I don’t know how to say the same thing
using different words and although I understand why Swarthout and Co would want to recover
legal ownership of Santa Ana (and use Corani as some sort of bargaining chip in order to do
so), even if some sort of paper is signed by the national government it won’t make a jot of
difference; Santa Ana will never be built because the Aymara people who live there don’t want
it to happen, period.
It doesn’t matter what the national government says or thinks about the subject. It’s not even
important what the regional governor of Puno, Mauricio Rodríguez says (his position last week
was to say that the Aymara people weren’t against mining projects and he was working with
some Aymara leaders in order to get the project back on track). What matters are the people in
the area and here are a few quotes from the Aymara leadership that really matters, reported
last week after the Corani ESIA was awarded and BCM made its Santa Ana plans clear.
On mining in general (14):
“If a concession is awarded in the South zone [of Puno region], the Aymara people will
rise up in protest”.
“The consequences of mining activity are negative”.
On Santa Ana (15) (16):
“It is a provocation. The Aymara people have a firm position of saying no to mining in
this area.”
On Regional president Mauricio Rodríguez and his declarations in favour of BCM (17):
“He’s working with fantasy Aymaras”
“His words are a provocation (to us)”.
“If the Aymara people re-start protests, the guilty party will be Mauricio Rodríguez”
I could continue, but if you want to get the situation into context, consider a scenario where a
Canadian First Nations people are dead set against a mining project, but then suddenly because
of combination of a piece of paper signed by PM Harper and the agreement of one First Nations
person in a hundred, they stop their protests and welcome the mining company in to do all the
business it wants. Do you get it now? Santa Ana is not going to happen, ever, because The
Aymara Nation refuses to host the mine or any mine owned by outsiders, a word that includes a
whole bunch of Peruvians next to foreign nationals. And there are 400,000 Aymara on the Peru
19

side of the border in that region and there are only two roads running in and out. And they’ve
never been conquered in battle, not even by the Incas (who incorporated the area into their
empire by negotiated settlement, the only tribe they didn’t manage to beat in combat). And
believe me, hand on heart, as most of you know already there’s your author’s personal
experience and long-standing respect in play here; you do not f___ with the Aymara.
From an outsider’s point of view, the new BCM position, conditioning Corani on the recovery of
Santa Ana, is logical enough. However, I’m left with a feeling of something between
disappointment and amazement that Andrew Swarthout has failed to learn anything about the
people with whom he’s been working for several years and has put the future of his company’s
truly worthy asset in jeopardy because of his ignorance. If Swarthout’s call were to continue to
claim recovery of Santa Ana without trying to involve the now-permitted Corani as some sort of
bargaining chip it would be more palatable and even now, when his gambit on Santa Ana fails
(because it will) he may find that no harm has been done to progress at Corani. Then again, he
may find that the uprising and violence caused by the protests of Aymara sully his company’s
reputation in the country once and for all. Or he may just find himself back to square one but
having wasted a few years of time on Corani’s progress. Whatever the reason, I find it very
easy to walk away from a company operating in Peru that has no idea about how to operate in
Peru, with little tact and the desire to use divisive strategies in order to get what it wants.
Conclusion
IKN230 is done, we end with some bullet points:
• Adding to Minera IRL (IRL.to) (MIRL.L) is the most pro-active decision I’ve made
regarding the market in months. Come this time next week the position will be an
outsized long and beginning to rival Rio Alto (RIO.to) in size. I’m looking to bring down
the cost average to around 35c if possible.
• The quarterly regional risk review gives me a natural opportunity to sit back and reflect
on the way things have been going for miners in LatAm. This week’s thoughts have
drifted mostly towards Colombia and wondering whether that country is about to get its
mining mojo back after a couple of years in which it’s handed mostly disappointments
to a previously over-eager sector. I’ll be happy to see things improving there, because
there are certainly bargains aplenty these days.
• Bear Creek may or may not be in the process of snatching political risk defeat from the
jaws of victory, but what I do know is that its attitude immediately raises its risk profile.
I wish them luck, but won’t be riding with them any further until they stop insisting on
a project that will never, ever happen.
• October promises to be a key month for many of the near-term trade positions
currently open on the list. As news arrives for SAM.to, EOM.to, GORO, RIO.to amongst
others, decisions will be made. And as long as you don’t take any of it too seriously,
we’ll be just fine.
The top long-term picks are Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) and Minera IRL (IRL.to). I thank
you in advance for any feedback sent in. Flash updates will be sent promptly if required by
events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Otto
20

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/09/report-employment-report-to-be-delayed.html
(2) http://www.imdb.com/character/ch0032564/quotes
(3) http://www.proveedoresdemineria.com/v2_notas.php?id=5592
(4) http://gestion.pe/empresas/aqm-copper-buscara-punto-medio-inversion-zafranal-2077182
(5) http://www.biobiochile.cl/2013/09/03/concluye-fase-de-audiencias-que-estudia-la-creacion-de-proyecto-de-ley-sobre-
proteccion-de-glaciares.shtml
(6) http://justf.org/
(7) http://www.bnamericas.com/news/mining/further-investments-in-argentina-will-be-very-difficult-says-goldcorp-ceo
(8) http://www.prensalibre.com/huehuetenango/Disturbios-Huehuetenango-Captura-Mynor_Lopez-_hidroelectrica-
Santa_Cruz_Barillas_0_1001300046.html
(9) http://comunitariapress.wordpress.com/
(10) http://www.kinross.com/operations/operation-la-coipa-chile.aspx
(11) http://www.aminera.com/mas-noticias-nacionales/51190--se-desinfla-la-fiebre-del-oro-otra-minera-pospone-
proyecto-y-chile-se-aleja-del-esperado-qtop-5q
(12) http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/25/mining-denver-bearcreek-idUSL2N0HL1L220130925
(13) http://www.rpp.com.pe/2013-09-27-bear-creek-busca-dialogo-para-activar-proyecto-santa-ana-
noticia_634903.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
(14) http://www.pachamamaradio.org/04-07-2013/dirigente-aymara-amenaza-con-levantamiento-de-darse-concesion-
minera-al-sur-de-la-region.html
(15) http://www.pachamamaradio.org/10-08-2012/puno-pueblo-aymara-vive-de-los-recursos-naturales-y-no-del-
extractivismo.html
(16) http://www.rpp.com.pe/2013-09-26-consideran-como-provocacion-pretension-de-recuperar-minera-santa-ana-
noticia_634502.html
(17) http://www.pachamamaradio.org/27-09-2013/hermes-cauna-pueblo-aymara-no-permitira-la-mineria-al-sur-de-la-
region.html
Appendix 1: Flash update dated Wednesday September 25th
Good Wednesday evening, a quick update.
We note that Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) has a good day today, up ~18% on the news that its environmental and social
impact permit (ESIA) for the Corani project has been approved by the Peru government.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-creek-announces-approval-corani-120000499.html
Hopefully we'll get the same type of positive reaction from Minera IRL (MIRL.L) (IRL.to) tomorrow, as we hear (from
non-company sources) that the company has also had its ESIA for the Ollachea project approved and should announce
as such tomorrow morning. As this is one of the key elements of the IRL story left to put into place it should go down
well with the market, gold price willing.
Finally thanks for the several mails received re. the earthquake. In fact the quake as felt here was long in duration but
not a big deal and in my case, nothing more than a just-in-case step out of the house for a couple of minutes (you never
know how shaky they're going to be until they've finished). People on the coast of Peru have had a much tougher day.
Appendix 2: Flash update dated Friday September 27th
Good morning, 07:19am and an hour before the open on this summery-already Friday morning,
Selling Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v)
It's only a small position and for a supposed near-term trading call, it's been in the portfolio for longer than imagined.
The ESIA announcement came this week and the stock reacted well enough, but on consideration I think it's time to
leave this one.
The NR that accompanied the ESIA approval announcement and also comments made to press by CEO Swarthout are
cuase for concern. It seems that BCM.v is either trying to use Corani as political leverage on the Peru government into
re-approving Santa Ana, or BCM is actually serious about its plan of developing Santa Ana first in order to fund Corani.
Either way and for some reason only really known at director level of BCM, the company has decided to open up a can
of worms and via this line of thinking has exposed itself to a greatly heightened level of political risk. I repeat (for the
umpteenth time) that Santa Ana doesn't have a chance of happening, and on that score I'll add a little extra in Sunday's
edition of the weekly, but that call has not changed. The only good way this BCM strategy ends is to get a national
government approval and then palm the asset off to a third party, but that is by no means a given. At this time I run
away from political risk and I'm especially keen on staying away from exploration stage junior mining companies that
wish higher levels of risk onto themselves.
21

As gold and silver are doing well this morning (Au +1.4% as I write this) today may give a decent window in which to
sellat a slightly higher price than yesterday's $2.19 close. The position has turned out to be a disappointment and today
sits with a very minor green ink position that's as near to unchanged as dammit. The desire to raise cash is greater
however, so it's time to sell. More this weekend.
Eco Oro Minerals (EOM.to)
I've managed to snag a very few and still want more EOM.to to fully start this near-term trade trade, but with just a few
bought the position is open open for Stocks to Follow purposes.
Minera IRL (MIRL.l) (IRL.to)
Pricewise, the market reaction to yesterday's news was subdued, which was a little disappointing. However volumes in
both London and Toronto were good and with gold looking perkier today (please don't tell me it's because of the US
debt ceiling stupidity) we may have a decent reaction still. I note that Jennings reaffrimed its 75c price target on the
news this morning (with thanks to reader LR for the headsup). Reaffirmed Top Pick buy.
Enjoy your Friday, until IKN230 this weekend.
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2012
Closed in 2012 closed close PPS
Soltoro SOL.v jan'12 C$0.87 07-nov-11 C$0.94 8.0% cash moved to BCM.v
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to feb'12 C$0.84 13-oct-10 C$0.98 16.7% trade closed on ELG.v offer
Minefinders MFN feb'12 U$11.68 17-nov-11 U$14.80 26.7% target made, trade closed
Iron Creek IRN.v mar'12 C$0.58 26-sep-10 C$0.31 -46.6% time up on small bad trade
U.S. Silver USA.to apr'12 C$2.18 15-mar-12 C$1.86 -14.7% ST trade no good, cut loss
Augusta Res. AZC.to may'12 C$3.10 29-ene-12 C$2.07 -33.2% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Bellhaven BHV.v may'12 C$0.50 22-sep-10 C$0.28 -44.0% new mgmt not impressive
Zincore Metals ZNC.to may'12 C$0.325 29-jul-11 C$0.17 -47.7% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Soltoro SOL.v may'12 C$0.70 18-mar-11 C$0.41 -41.4% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
U.S. Silver USA.to aug'12 C$1.78 27-jul-12 C$1.36 -23.6% fail ST trade close pre split
Estrella Gold EST.v aug'12 C$0.91 27-mar-11 C$0.14 -84.6% Closed on port realignment
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'12 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.32 397.2% sell call $6.17/ Mar25
Strait Minerals SRD.v oct'12 C$0.125 09-dic-11 C$0.12 -4.0% closing coverage til FY13
Sunward Res SWD.to oct'12 C$1.47 13-mar-11 C$1.21 -17.7% sold, took loss
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'12 U$21.47 09-sep-12 U$17.40 19.0% Short trade closed
Yellowhead Min. YMI.to nov'12 C$1.00 01-abr-12 C$0.63 -37.0% sold, took loss
Primero Mining PPP nov'12 U$7.26 07-oct-12 U$6.73 7.3% Short trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v nov'12 C$3.38 07-nov-11 C$3.72 10.1% Took small profit
Vena Resources VEM.to dec'12 C$0.70 31-may-09 C$0.18 -74.3% Failed trade (caps F)
Galway Res GWY.v dec'12 C$2.19 24-nov-12 C$2.30 5.0% closed good ST arb trade
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2011
Closed in 2011 closed close PPS
Sunward Res SWD.v jan'11 C$1.05 21-nov-10 C$1.63 55.2% target made, trade closed
Serengeti Res SIR.v mar'11 C$0.245 05-dec-10 C$0.285 16.3% sold pre-tgt, ST trade fail
Fronteer Gold FRG apr'11 U$2.37 03-may-09 U$15.24 543.0% buyout, trade closed
Minefinders MFN apr'11 U$9.09 07-nov-10 U$16.89 85.8% target made, trade closed
Metalline Min. MMG may'11 U$1.04 26-jan-11 U$0.89 -14.4% exit, resource disappointed
Peregrine Met PGM.to jul'11 C$0.87 06-mar-11 C$2.60 198.9% buyout offer, closed
Dynasty Metals DMM.to jul'11 C$4.20 03-may-09 C$2.85 -32.1% Sold. Fail. Move on.
Aura Silver AUU.v aug'11 C$0.22 13-oct-10 C$0.16 -36.4% Bad pick. Take loss
U.S. Silver USA.v aug'11 C$0.52 26-jan-11 C$0.71 36.5% closed to make room
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'11 C$2.80 12-may-11 C$4.27 52.5% target made, trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v sep'11 C$3.80 27-may-11 C$4.17 9.7% macro sell call victim
Minefinders MFN sep'11 U$14.70 10-aug-11 U$15.15 3.1% macro sell call victim
Great Panther GPR.to sep'11 C$3.03 22-aug-11 C$2.64 -12.9% macro sell call victim
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'11 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.36 400.9% sold 20%, macro sell call
Focus Ventures FCV.v nov'11 C$0.40 20-apr-10 C$0.20 -50.0% cut losses, bad trade
Regulus Res. REG.v dec'11 C$1.17 14-aug-11 C$0.52 -55.6% cut on news of poor 43-101
2009 and 2010 closed positions in appendices below
22

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2010
Closed in 2010 closed close PPS
B2Gold Corp BTO.to Jan'10 C$0.88 08-nov-09 C$1.49 68.2% target made, trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v Jan'10 C$0.18 23-aug-09 C$0.40 122.2% target made, trade closed
MAG Silver MVG mar'10 U$5.60 23-nov-09 U$7.28 30.0% closed in pdac week
Riverside Res RRI.v mar'10 C$0.435 20-sep-09 C$0.60 37.9% closed in pdac week
Amarillo Gold AGC.v mar'10 C$0.81 31-may-09 C$0.70 -13.6% closed in pdac week
B2Gold Corp BTO.to apr'10 C$1.24 18-feb-10 C$1.50 21.0% target made, trade closed
Lumina Copper LCC.v apr'10 C$0.84 14-jun-09 C$1.55 51.2% total position now sold
Troy Resources TRY.to may'10 C$1.10 03-may-09 C$2.25 104.5% sold on negative results
AuEx Ventures XAU.to may'10 C$2.51 24-may-09 C$3.38 34.7% trade closed
Nevada Copper NCU.to jun'10 C$3.27 14-mar-10 C$2.03 -37.9% need to lower Cu exposure
Carpathian Gold CPN.to jun'10 C$0.39 14-mar-10 C$0.35 -10.3% too exposed to cap raising
Amerix PM Corp APM.v jun'10 C$0.065 08-nov-09 C$0.05 -23.1% victim of macro bear
Antares Minerals ANM.v jun'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$2.10 47.9% sold half
Vena Resources VEM.to jun'10 C$0.37 31-may-09 C$0.23 -37.8% sold half
Minera Andes MAI.to sep'10 C$0.75 28-jul-10 C$0.95 26.7% ST trade closed
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to sep'10 C$0.52 01-aug-10 C$0.75 44.2% target made, trade closed
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'10 C$1.45 25-may-10 C$2.01 34.5% target made, trade closed
Blue Sky Uran BSK.v oct'10 C$0.41 19-may-10 C$0.22 -46.3% v small v bad trade closed
Dia Bras Expl DIB.v oct'10 C$0.14 30-aug-09 C$0.35 150.0% target made, trade closed
S. Amer. Silver SAC.to nov'10 C$1.38 24-oct-10 C$1.60 -15.9% loss on short, small fail
Ventana Gold VEN.to nov'10 C$7.92 27-jun-10 C$13.51 70.6% trade closed on buyout
Lumina Copper LCC.v nov'10 C$1.42 11-aug-10 C$3.65 157.0% trade closed
Antares Minerals ANM.v dec'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$8.40 491.5% trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.v dec'10 C$0.69 23-mar-10 C$2.16 213.0% trade closed
Coro Mining COP.to dec'10 C$0.585 03-oct-10 C$1.24 112.0% target made, trade closed
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2009
Closed positions closed closing PPS
Cardero Res CDY/CDU.to May'09 U$1.20 03-May-09 U$0.87 -27.5% sold on negative news
Eastmain Res. ER.to May'09 C$1.04 06-May-09 C$1.315 26.4% trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v May'09 C$0.165 03-May-09 C$0.235 42.4% trade closed
Latin Amer Min. LAT.v May'09 C$0.12 03-May-09 C$0.158 29.2% trade closed
Aquiline Res. AQI.to July'09 C$2.03 16-Jun-09 C$1.68 -17.2% took loss, bad timing
Chariot Resources CHD.to Aug'09 C$0.20 12-Jul-09 C$0.415 107.5% trade closed
Castle Gold CSG.v Sep'09 C$0.64 02-Aug-09 C$0.60 -6.3% ST trade didn't work out
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to Sep'09 C$2.30 12-May-09 C$4.50 95.7% profit taken
Los Andes Copper LA.v Sep'09 C$0.09 21-Jun-09 C$0.09 0% trade closed
Pediment Gold PEZ.to Oct'09 C$0.80 09-Aug-09 C$1.00 25.0% trade closed
Minera Andes MAI.to Oct'09 C$0.68 03-May-09 C$0.71 4.4% too much bad news
Dynasty Metals DMM.to Nov'09 C$4.18 03-May-09 C$6.01 43.8% half sold
Rusoro Mining RML.v Nov'09 C$0.55 03-May-09 C$0.57 3.6% underperformed
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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