IKN #222Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 222, August 4th 2013
Contents
This Week: Gold unscathed, A break.
Fundamental Analysis: An update on production at Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) (RIOM).
Stocks to Follow: Overview, Colossus Minerals (CSI.to), Gold Resource Corp (GORO), Tahoe
Resources (THO.to) (TAHO), Darwin (DAR.v), AQM Copper (AQM.v), B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG),
Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v), Pretium Resources (PVG) (PVG.to), Network Exploration (NET.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Reservoir (RMC.v), NGEx (NGQ.to), NovaCopper (NCQ.to).
The Lottery Ticket Basket: Overview, Bellhaven (BHV.v), Marlin Gold (MLN.v).
Regional Politics: Colombia’s miner’s strike update, Kinross may get something out of Fruta
del Norte, Nicaragua and Canada and a bilateral trade deal, Chile energy costs at record highs.
Market Watching: Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) (FSM) redux, Working on Buenaventura (BVN),
Atna Resources (ATN.to) results and gossip, More Lowell Copper (JDL.v).
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Gold unscathed
The FOMC, the U.S. jobs report and other assorted fun items that made for a heavy macro data
week has passed us by and the result on gold is here for your viewing pleasure:
1

That’s a chart I can easily accept, ladies and gentlemen readers, and apart from a not-very-
meaningful Thursday/Friday overnight wobble when somebody in Hong Kong placed a bad bet
on the U.S. Bureau Labor Statistics July 2013 report on The Employment Situation, gold didn’t
see the underside of U$1,300/oz. So two more small pieces positioned into the (much) larger
puzzle, and what those pieces suggest is that benign data don’t move gold much. That might
sound obvious, but it wasn’t that way a mere two or four months ago when the market found
itself with the uncanny knack of seeing “bearish for gold” in just about any set of results you
care to present. In other words, last week underscored the we have indeed bottomed out of
gold and if U$1,300 doesn’t hold for a shorter period, the space down to and including $1.2k
will be a very hard nut for bears to crack.
The August fun remaining for us centres around the 2q earnings reports now due from a
plethora of juniors (the larger entities are already in full season and some (K) were better than
others (ABX)). Aside the few that may come in this week (perhaps RIO.to, GORO) I’m expecting
a quiet week for the sector, or at least hoping for one because...
A break
As of this afternoon your author is travelling and catching up with three girls already relaxing
with family in the middle of nowhereville. As many mails were received asking for a few photos
and just one of you saying no, some photos will appear of Peru’s altiplano and the family this
time next week. I’ll be checking mail and the market close prices most evenings (as long as the
weak 3G internet coverage is the same as it was last time I was there) but the blog will almost
certainly remain untouched until I’m back at home base, Friday evening. Hope you have a nice
week. Photos will be a feature of IKN223.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
An update on production at Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) (RIOM)
I am both cognizant and wary of Boy Who Cried Wolf syndrome, I don’t like to see it in others
and as a result I try my very hardest to avoid it in my own declarations, but this short piece on
RIO gets the Fundies space this week because I am basically obliged to bang on the table,
ignore my own fears of repetition and tell readers that RIO is indeed a screaming buy right
now.
I want to be as clear as possible so here’s a statement to the effect: The other companies we
feature, like and hold as long positions in The IKN Weekly are all fair trades with their own
specific advantages and parameters. I see nothing wrong with any of them and as of today I’m
a relaxed and happy holder of all positions. But RIO at CAD$2.26 is the single stock you should
hold, add or buy in the immediate term (your pocket, your portfolio, your call) as its due for a
revaluation based on the news in the pipeline. Gold at $1,300/oz will be enough to see it rise
significantly in the days and weeks
to come. Rio Alto (RIO.to): Gold ounces placed on pad monthly, plus
35000 declared monthly production, Jan 2012 to date
There, I’ve said it. Now to the meat
30000
of the argument and unofficial but
25000
reliable word from somewhere in La
Libertad province, Peru (did you 20000
see what I did there?) tells your
15000
author that July was an excellent
10000
month for operations at La Arena.
The number will need to be 5000
confirmed at a later date but we
0
hear that the company placed
29,400 oz Au onto its pads during
the month, which is a record single
month of production for the mine.
2
21naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 31naj bef ram *rpa *yam *enuj yluj
oz Au
oz Au placed on pad
oz Au sold
source: MEM data/IKN ests

Again we stress that ounces placed does not equal ounces produced, as this chart of all months
since commercial production was declared shows. However, if we consider the firm data on
ounces sold recently, the unofficial data of ounces placed, take into account the time lag that’s
created by the leaching cycle playing catch-up to the recent hike in production tonnages and
then make a decent stab at the type of
recovery rate expected for the gold, we end
RIO.to: 2013 quarterly sales, guidance vs result
up with an estimated production of 24,000 oz
70000 65000
Au for July 2013 alone, putting the company guidance 62000
60000 result
well on course to beat our in-house estimate 48427
50000
of 65,000 oz produced in 3q13.
40000 36355
30000
Along with the cash cost benefits that come
from producing more gold and the subsequent 20000
improvement in margin, the July figures, if 10000
repeated in August and September, will blow 0
most production estimates for La Arena out 1q13 2q13 3q13 4q13
source: RIO data, IKN ests for results 3q13/4q13
the water (including our own which sit at the
higher end of the scale already) and
underscore its profitability as a mine. Our estimates plus the two announced production
quarters would bring RIO in to just under 212,000 oz Au for 2013. If July is a guide, that could
be beaten quite easily.
This is important for two reasons; first for the eventual production and cash flow for 3q13 but
secondly because with July in, RIO can choose to guide strongly for the current quarter when
announcing its 2q13 financial results later this month (it has until August 14th to file, last year it
filed on Tuesday August 7th). We expect a decent financial result from 2q13 (if average gold
sale was $1,350, we base earnings at 9.5c/share) but the market will want to know if the
production upgrade has continued and although still unofficial, that July gold placement
number, a company record for a single month by quite a way, shows it most definitely has.
There is more than RIO will need to deliver in order to truly get its mojo back, including the
need to show the market that the stage one oxide operations will indeed go on much longer
than the current resource life indicates.
That part of the RIO story needs to be
unlocked by its exploration program, but
considering its privileged location and the
amount of exploration going on in its
environs (as well as seeing first hand what
the company is doing on this score) your
author is confident that RIO will be mining
oxide gold for many years to come.
Another issue looming over the company
is the timely production (now tucked back
a little to 1q14) of the final plans for the
key stage two sulphide operation and to
decide just how it wants to get the capital
together to move its plans forward, as
assuming gold doesn’t zoom back to $1,700/oz and cover everything RIO will need another
source of cash, be that equity, debt, forward sales or whatever. But there’s just too much
pessimism baked into this current share price, way too much in fact, and I’m confident that RIO
is about to deliver strongly positive operating news to the market, both in this quarter and it’s
looking good for the next, which will allay a lot of the gloom that’s settled over the stock and
get it moving back up again (and badly timed it may have been, but that’s exactly why I took
out a separate trading position in the stock at a $2.68 average).
The price that’s being baked into RIO today, the market cap of under $400m, is silly. It’s that of
a company with marginal assets and no growth plans, not a profitable miner with a growth
3

pipeline of economically solid project(s). This thing is going back over $3 in the near-term and
what it needs to do that is a good set of 2q13 financials and a strong guidance for the rest of
this year. Both those things are in the cards, so as long as gold gives us a level playing field, it’s
time to make a bit of money in this market. Own RIO, the rest is noise.
Stocks to Follow
A negative week for our list, with five winners (RIO.to, GORO short, RIO.to trading position,
TAHO short, AQM) two unchanged (LRA.v, NET.v) and seven losers (BTO.to, IRL.to, BCM.v,
PVG.to, CSI.to, FCV.v, DAR.v).
We currently have 14 open positions on our ‘Stocks to Follow’ list, one less than our self-
imposed maximum. Just three of the positions are in the green now, one is unchanged and ten
are in the red.
Company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
Top Picks
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to Str buy C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$2.26 -1.7% $6.29 tgt time to buy
B2Gold BTO.to buy C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$2.79 -9.1% $5.70 tgt added Apr '13
Recommends
Minera IRL IRL.to spec buy C$0.73 22-jul-12 C$0.205 -71.9% waiting on finance news
Lara Expl. LRA.v hold C$1.15 08-apr-12 C$0.90 -21.7% solid biz model, LT hold
Gold Res Corp GORO short U$9.70 03-may-13 U$7.44 23.3% to tgt, port hedge cont.
Bear Creek BCM.v hold C$2.06 30-may-13 C$1.85 -10.2% Cheap at $20 Ag
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to buy C$2.68 07-jun-13 C$2.26 -15.7% ST trade position, separate
Pretium Res PVG.to buy C$8.20 11-jun-13 C$8.38 2.2% New position, M&A play
Tahoe Resources TAHO short U$13.10 08-apr-13 U$14.80 -13.0% added to short, port hedge
Colossus Min. CSI.to buy C$0.72 24-jul-13 C$0.69 -4.2% trading buy, 90c tgt
Smaller/Riskier
AQM Copper AQM.v hold/add C$0.31 16-oct-11 C$0.085 -72.6% want to add at 6c
Focus Ventures FCV.v spec buy C$0.175 01-jul-12 C$0.07 -60.0% revised tgt 25c
Darwin Res DAR.v spec buy C$0.10 14-jul-12 C$0.11 10.0% drill res-Aug'13
Network Expl. NET.v spec buy C$0.01 22-jul-12 C$0.01 0.0% V. small spec, foothold
Closed in 2013 closed close price
USA Graphite USGT feb'13 U$0.93 08-jan-13 U$0.17 81.7% short tgt made/trade closed
Lachlan Star LSA.to feb'13 C$1.50 30-sep-12 C$0.95 -36.7% sold to reduce port risk
United Silver USC.to mar'13 C$0.21 28-oct-12 C$0.095 -54.8% small Ag sector trade, failed
Aurcana Corp AUN.v apr'13 C$1.07 11-nov-12 C$0.55 -48.6% closed on poor YE results
Gold Res Corp GORO apr'13 U$14.11 25-jan-13 U$9.38 33.5% short tgt made/trade closed
Marlin Gold MLN.v apr'13 C$0.075 10-feb-13 C$0.065 -13.3% closed trade
Bear Creek BCM.v may'13 C$2.58 01-apr-13 C$2.40 -7.0% near-term, time ran out
Lupaka Gold LPK.to may'13 C$1.12 23-oct-11 C$0.32 -71.4% towel thrown in
Tahoe Resources TAHO may'13 U$18.62 08-apr-13 U$14.70 21.1% took profit on ST short
OceanaGold OGC.to jun'13 C$3.03 16-sep-12 C$1.18 -61.1% sold on gold drop
IMPACT Silver IPT.v jun'13 C$1.14 13-jan-13 C$0.62 -45.6% sold on silver drop
Duran Ventures DRV.v jun'13 C$0.045 10-may-13 C$0.025 -44.4% ST trade never worked
Plata Latina PLA.v jun'13 C$0.79 10-apr-12 C$0.13 -83.5% still trying to sell
Bellhaven BHV.v jun'13 C$0.065 03-jun-13 C$0.12 84.6% closed ST trade
2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 closed positions in appendices below
4

Now for some notes on a selection of the above stocks.
Colossus Minerals (CSI.to): OK, a bad week for this spec play that saw prices as low as 66c
on Thursday (generally available at that price, too) and makes my “smart” decision to take 72c
last week look just a teensy tiny bit stupid. However (and there’s always a but, right?) this one
is still under its financing period and funny things can and do go on at such times, psychological
games galore from one side or the other. It’s not so smart (dare I say stupid?) to read too
much into intraday or intra-week activity in stocks under these circumstances. The basic facts
remain the same, and they start with the near certain 100% filling of this placement and when
it’s done, we expect the Canadian promo machine to grind into gear. That’s why I’m long, so
once the ducks start to get in line we’ll find out whether I’m right or wrong, not before.
Gold Resource Corp (GORO): Still no news about whether GORO had re-started its mining
operations after the reported death of July 26th (1), which is somewhat unusual because we’d
expect the re-start, as was the closure, to be a mandatory disclosable event. Also strange
because in your author’s experience, mine shutdowns after a bad workplace accident in Mexico
usually go on for 72 hours at most unless there are complicating matters; here we’re looking at
nine days and counting (or 1/10th of a quarter). This may be the reason why GORO provided
our portfolio with the best weekly performance of any single position, the short gaining 9.3%
(and dropping below our $7.50 downside target again). It also might be the upcoming quarterly
results (last year GORO reported this quarter on August 9th) which we expect to be mediocre at
best.
We’re at target here and can close this short position with its planned win, but we’re going to
hold on a while longer to see the 2q13 numbers and how they might affect the company. After
that, a decision gets made.
Tahoe Resources (TAHO): Our other short hedging position also gave us a win, but of a far
more modest 2% type. The only news from Guatemala mining world was that President Otto
Pérez Molina offered to halt his moratorium plan if the country’s congress would just vote
through his mining law changes once and for all, which smacked of the devious plan all along.
Congress kind of chortled back at him and did no such thing.
Darwin Resources (DAR.v): DAR jagged back eventually to a level more akin to its risk
status, but trading all week was wafer thin and I’d expect that to continue until we get those
all-important drill results, slated for mid-month. Our biggest loser on the week but it was to be
expected. I personally am not expecting to do any trading next week, but I will have time to
check in on the market at the end of the day (if the boss lets me, anyway) and this is one I’ll
keep tabs on, for either news or a cheap (under 10c) entry point for a few more.
AQM Copper (AQM.v): What I most like is the return of some decent traded volume days
(over 1m shares traded on the week, best day Thursday with 362k). What I don’t like is that
the damned thing won’t drop to 6c and allow me my window to add a few more and lower the
cost average. That’s all here.
B2Gold (BTO.to): I feel kind of crappy about the short commentary on BTO last week (here
reproduced in full):
Our Top Pick had another good week, but I can’t help but feel it’s getting to
the top of its potential as a runner in the near term and I’m thinking of re-
allocating at least part of the cash held here into other places. I’m not shifting
out, but I wouldn’t stop anyone from reallocating at least some of their cash
from BTO to RIO right now.
No I’m not being cutesy with you, I’m truly narked about that. I’m annoyed because although it
caught the trend it was way too wishy-washy and turned out to be a weak message in the face
of strong selling that turned, in my opinion at least, into overselling come Friday. A 10.9% drop
5

in just five trading days is a big loss to take in a stock like this and I wish I’d had more
conviction about the call, very-near-term or not.
But I personally wouldn’t have sold and won’t sell either, not yet at least. BTO is everything a
good junior should be, with cash flow, projects and a winning team at the helm. As for more
prosaic matters and we have our date for the 2q13 numbers (2), Wednesday August 14th, so
come IKN224 on August 18th it may be time to run a closer ruler over BTO and see how things
stand.
Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v): In IKN220 we specifically address the fragility of low volume
rebounds in junior explorecos when
talking about BCM. We did the same last
week in IKN221 with (and let’s quote it),
“...good week for the share price, though
we need to remind readers once again
that without a significant uptick in volume,
any gain such as the one we saw last
week must be considered at least
vulnerable.” And sure enough, after
peaking at $2.31 late Monday in light
trading, the stock returned to the $2-level
and was then battered down late Friday to
$1.85 by a stonking block trade which
gave the share its first dose of real volume
in weeks (and unsurprisingly, the seller
trying to get out paid a heavy penalty. So we’re back to square one and the stock price we saw
around IKN220, all on zero news from the company.
Pretium Resources (PVG.to) (PVG): PVG looks like it’s found a new level to trade around
until the key bulk sample results turn up later this quarter (timing being well). Meanwhile
professional geologists continue to make catty remarks in public or in private about the
“mineability” of VOK. It’s all starting to smack too much of jealousy guys, I’ll take my chances
on the bulk sample result and stay long until then, minimum.
Network Exploration (NET.v): As I said last week, not dwelling on this tiny position but a
couple of comments are required on its 2q13 numbers (quarter ending May 31st) posted last
week. First we see that with just $22k in current assets, NET is the epitome of a company
running on fumes and that’s what needs to be kept in mind by anyone wondering just why I’m
calling this a high-risk trade. In the simplest of sentences, if its current placement doesn’t close,
NET is going NEX list at point point.
Related to that, in the MD&A there was this recorded:
1.15 Subsequent Events
During the period from June 1 to July 30, 2013, the Company:
a) Received an unsecured loan from a director for $4,000.
b) Received $20,000 in share subscriptions.
In other words a) one of the team is using a credit card to keep key personnel paid and b) so
far, there’s not much of the $500k placement officially covered. To this end, I got in touch with
the company Pres/CEO Alexander Helmel and asked if he could give any further comment. He
replied that there are more subscriptions to the placement, but the cash is being held back til
the close and as such he can’t announce on it. He didn’t say anything directly, but reading
between the lines there was quite a bit of confidence from him about the placement closing
soon. We’ll see on that, as it’s the key to the whole game here and the difference between the
win and the lose. Until we have solid news, this one isn’t going to get any bigger than its 50k
shares at a penny.
6

The Copper Basket
After thirty-one weeks of 2013 The Copper Basket is showing a 29.77% loss to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/13 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Resources NGQ.to 3.40 168.63 320.40 1.90 -44.1%
2 Augusta Res AZC.to 2.43 144.1 306.93 2.13 -12.3%
3 Lumina Copper LCC.v 9.43 43.46 204.26 4.70 -50.2%
4 Copper Fox CUU.v 0.83 399.61 203.80 0.51 -38.6%
5 Nevada Copper NCU.to 3.50 80.5 165.03 2.05 -41.4%
6 Reservoir Min. RMC.v 2.41 41.46 131.84 3.18 32.0%
7 Hot Chili Ltd HCH.ax 0.72 286.78 119.01 0.415 -42.4%
8 NovaCopper NCQ.to 1.80 51.89 104.30 2.01 11.7%
9 Panoro Minerals PML.v 0.62 204.7 63.46 0.31 -50.0%
10 Western Copper WRN.to 1.39 93.78 53.45 0.57 -59.0%
11 Curis Resources CUV.to 0.70 56.31 39.98 0.71 1.4%
12 Candente Copper DNT.to 0.375 121.93 21.95 0.18 -52.0%
13 Oracle Mining OMN.to 0.80 49.03 20.59 0.42 -47.5%
14 Yellowhead Min. YMI.to 0.59 60.97 11.89 0.195 -66.9%
15 Strait Minerals SRD.v 0.08 56.86 3.13 0.055 -31.3%
NB: HCH.ax priced in AUD$, rest CAD$ Portfolio avg -29.77%
Over last week seven of our 15 Copper Basket names made gains (NGQ.to, CUU.v, NCU.to,
WRN.to, PML.v, RMC.v, DNT.to), one
remained unchanged (OMN.to) and the Copper Basket 2013 average, weekly
12%
other seven registered a week-over-week
8%
loss (LCC.v, AZC.to, HCH.ax, NCQ.to, 4%
YMI.to, CUV.to, SRD.v). The best 0%
-4%
percentage moves were in Candente
-8%
Copper (DNT.to up 16.7%), Panoro -12%
Minerals (PML.v up 10.7%) and NGEx -16%
-20%
Resources (NGQ.to up 10.5%) while the
-24%
worst loss was taken by Curis Resources -28%
(CUV.to down 10.1%). Overall the basket -32%
average dropped 0.71% and was close to a
wash.
Copper market prices had a positive week
and moved away from the $3 floor level again.
That’s a strong looking resistance level that keeps
on working (until it doesn’t). As the price chart
here shows, the move from just-above $3 to
$3.20/lb come the early hours of Friday was
steady and consistent, with just the last few hours
after the soft-ish jobs report taking the edge off
the best prices for the week. Copper has bounced
around between $3 and $3.2 since mid-June if it
broke away, the next line in the sand would
probably get drawn at $3.40/lb, the top price it
saw in May.
Moving to inventories, and another quiet week to
report in slack volumes of physical sales,
according to all the main desks. This is truly one
sector that’s on hold until August, no faking. World
7
ht6naj ht31 ht02 ht72 r3bef ht01 ht71 ht42 dr3ram ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpa ht41 ts12 ht82 t5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4gua
source: IKN calcs, TSX data
31/1/1
morf
egnahc
%

inventories dropped by 12,153mt (or 1.4%) to stand at 830,356mt. Of that total, LME stocks
dropped by 2.0% to 608,675mt with nearly all of that change coming from the 9,425mt drop
registered at its Malaysia warehouse system. Comex warehouse stocks dropped by 2.8% to
58,110mt and the only datapoint worthy of a small eyebrow raising is the 1.2% upmove in
Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse stocks, which are now at 163,571mt. LME cancelled
warrants moved up a tiny touch, to 52.1% of stock. No change from the new normal there.
Cancelled Warrants at LME, IKN157 to date
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
8
751NKI 951NKI 161NKI 361NKI 561NKI 761NKI 961NKI 171NKI 371NKI 571NKI 771NKI 971NKI 181NKI 381NKI 581NKI 781NKI 981NKI 191NKI 391NKI 591NKI 791NKI 991NKI 102NKI 302NKI 502NKI 702NKI 902NKI 112NKI 312NKI 512NKI 712NKI 912NKI 122NKI
source: Cochilco, LME
rof
yrotnevni
EML
%
latot
yreviled
resu-dne
Now for updates on some of our basket stocks
Reservoir Minerals (RMC.v): RMC beats the bunch again and shows great strength, no
doubt helped in some part by the confidence that
the positive late week action in copper brought,
but its popularity is pretty specific and it’s very
much the go-to junior these days.
I know the price I want (as you do, not going to
bore you forever) but I’m now considering at
least a starter position at these higher prices, if
only to get the foot in the door. On the other
hand I’m starting to get to a limit of how much
more money I want exposed in equities right
now (always want a cash cushion in the juniors
portfolio) so in a perfect (or better will do) world
I’d sell another position in order to fund any new purchases. Perhaps the trading position in RIO
can go soon, at $3 or above. That would give more than enough space.
NGEx Resources (NGQ.to): A decent rebound from this oversold stock last week. The Pascua
Lama snafu must have hurt NGQ at some market level, what with its plans for a high-Andes
cross border Chile/Argentina large scale development hitting too many recognition buttons. If I
had a voice inside this company, I’d be telling them to keep anything located in Argentina for
the exclusive interest of their geologists and away from the public relations departments, who
should just hammer on Los Helados, Helados and Helados, point to the mine just down the
road from that project which is developing just fine thanks very much and count the ways in
which the industry should love their multi-billion pound Chile resource. Don’t use the A word in
public, guys.
NovaCopper (NCQ.to): The most interesting fundamentals news from the copper exploreco
sector last week was supplied by NovaCopper (NCQ.to) as it delivered its PEA (scoping study)
for the “Arctic Open Pit Polymetallic Deposit” (3). I was hoping to be impressed by the PEA
project economics of this high-grade deposit, but have to say that although good enough they
weren’t great and that the market reaction to the news, summed up on this chart...

...looks about right to me. Low volume, somewhat lower prices, a general lack of interest. Yup.
We’ll know more once the PEA is filed to SEDAR and as of now we only have the NR plus the
conference call (CC presentation here (4)) that came with the announcement as our information
sources. The general impression, that needs to be confirmed by the actual document, is that
this is a “good PEA” (i.e. not one of those bullshit throwaway PEAs we’ve suffered over the last
few years that has “wow the market at whatever cost to honesty” as its sole objective) that’s
been done in a serious and responsible manner. There’s lots of info already available and I
recommend that you peruse both NR and corporate presentation while listening the the CC
recording in the background for more, but here we’ll just highlight a couple of tables and make
a couple of comments.
First this one, that sums up the post-tax project economics. NCQ has chosen U$2.90/lb as its
base case price for copper (kinda wish they’d chosen $2.75, but not a major gripe) along with
reasonable price assumptions for the other payable metals (see note under table) and they’ve
offered up a range of discount rates as well, with the company preferring the reasonably
conservative 8% disc, which is good to see. The result is a post-tax 17.9% IRR and a five year
payback on its planned 12 year mine life. That’s not bad, but it’s not sparkling either. The main
issue is the relatively high capex cost slated (initial capex $717.7m, plus sustaining capex of
$164.4m) for the relatively small size of the mine and mill (10k tpd) that is almost certainly the
product of the remote location of the Ambler cluster (Arctic being the most advanced target
there).
If it were one of these mega-mine projects, the 100k tpd copper monsters of Chile or Peru for
example, I’d have a gladder eye for this type of IRR. But smaller means I’d want more bang on
the profit margin items and although good, this isn’t great.
9

The other subject I want to cover in this brief and obviously incomplete overview is one that
stuck with me after reading over the offerings several times, that of the clear polymetallic
nature of Arctic. This table does the job of showing mine life and average year production of
each payable metal, as envisaged by the PEA:
If we zoom in on the average Annual Production figures on the right of Table 2, it’s obvious that
Arctic does not live by copper alone and that the multiple concentrate products and the circuits
they’ll need are another factor that have boosted the capex ticket price and may add
complications to the mine. If we then take the base case prices used by NCQ for its economic
assumptions (above) and plug them into those average annual production estimates, we get a
cash and percentage breakdown of each metal’s contribution to the whole:
• Copper: $362.66m (59.56%)
• Zinc: $129.05m (21.19%)
• Lead: $21.69m (3.56%)
• Silver: $57.68m (9.47%)
• Gold: $37.82m (6.21%)
• Total: $608.90m
As you can see, copper is clearly the main economic metal but at just under 60%, this project
won’t work just on the copper circuit. Zinc is a big component of economics, then comes silver.
Overall, I understand that Arctic can be seen as the stage one of greater things at Ambler and
once the infrastructure is in place for this project and the mining is underway, it can unlock the
value held at the other exploration targets and make for a long-term camp that will be able to
mine value for many years to come. However, on first pass (and admittedly without seeing the
full PEA, that pleasure awaits us soon) it doesn’t jump out as an obvious project to move on
due to the relatively high initial barrier of capex in the long-way-North. That and the apparent
complexity of its product mix is enough to put me off from becoming an owner for the moment,
though I suspect that in the next bullish cycle (whenever that may be) NCQ could become a
real success story. This one is for the serious miners of this world, not silly investment players
and flippers such as I.
The Lottery Ticket Basket
After 31 weeks of 2013 The Lottery Ticket Basket is showing a 35.83% loss to level stakes.
10

company ticker price 1/1/13 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Marlin Gold MLN.v 0.10 379.9 24.69 0.065 -35.0%
2 Bellhaven BHV.v 0.14 137 16.44 0.120 -14.3%
3 Eagle Star Min. EGE.v 0.125 69.48 15.63 0.225 80.0%
4 AQM Copper AQM.v 0.08 105.57 8.97 0.085 6.3%
5 Fancamp Expl. FNC.v 0.125 118.41 5.92 0.050 -60.0%
6 Tango Gold TGV.v 0.13 45.59 4.56 0.100 -23.1%
7 Glass Earth GEL.v 0.155 104.79 3.67 0.035 -77.4%
8 Inca One Res. IO.v 0.12 34.0 3.23 0.095 -20.8%
9 Darwin Resources DAR.v 0.20 26.16 2.88 0.110 -45.0%
10 Copper North COL.v 0.10 58.62 2.34 0.040 -60.0%
11 Gryphon Gold GGN.to 0.085 194.64 1.95 0.010 -88.2%
12 Rio Cristal RCZ.v 0.025 17.259 1.21 0.070 -72.0%
13 Netco Silver NEI.v 0.025 47.01 1.18 0.025 0.0%
14 Firestone Ventures FV.v 0.045 36.32 0.91 0.025 -44.4%
15 Cream Minerals CMA.v 0.03 155.34 0.78 0.005 -83.3%
Portfolio avg -35.83%
The Lottery Ticket Basket saw just two
stocks make gains on the week (MLN.v, 25% Lottery Ticket Basket 2013 average, weekly
20%
AQM.v), six remain unchanged due mainly to 15%
the continued tinycap apathy (GGN.to, 10%
5%
GEL.v, COL.v, CMA.v, IO.v, NEI.v) and seven 0%
drop because apathy get people dumping -5%
-10%
failed positions, too (BHV.v, FNC.v, EGE.v, -15%
TGV.v, DAR.v, RCZ.v, FV.v). Overall the -20%
-25%
basket average lost a touch over 3.5% and -30%
-35%
that sounds about right, considering the
-40%
state of the market, the August lull and the -45%
continued dry market for funding.
Bellhaven Copper & Gold (BHV.v): A notable
exception to the dry market was BHV. Admittedly it
didn’t do much on Friday but that was the exception to
the rule and 100k+ trading days are now common for
the stock, making it just about tradeable to the small
pennyflip investor. The trading range of between
11.5c and 13c last week (13%) make it flippable, too.
So overall we’re back to where the overall table
percentage
Marlin Gold (MLN.v): This company made the most interesting move of the week of all the
tiddlers, up 30% and on decently accelerated volumes, too. The reason was undoubtedly the
initiation of coverage on MLN.v by Cormark on Thursday August 1st, when analysts Tyron
Breytenbach and Kyle McPhee called the stock a buy and set a 15c target price. I have a copy
of the 28 page report and it’s a pretty thorough summary of the long case for the stock, so if
you’d like to me to forward it to you just say the word. The front page summary is pasted here
and it just about covers the main bases:
Marlin Gold Mining Ltd. (MLN - TSXV) - Buy CAD 0.15
Reeling In The FCF - Thursday, August 01, 2013
Marlin is on the cusp of gold production at its past producing open-pit, heap leach
11
ht6naj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3bef ht01 ht71 ht42 dr3ram ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpa ht41 ts12 ht82 t5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7luj ht41 s12 ht82 ht4gua
source: IKN Weekly data, TSX
2102/1/1
morf
egnahc
%

project (La Trinidad) in Sinaloa state, Mexico . The Company is a recent reincarnation
of Oro Mining, following a tender offer by Connecticut-based Wexford Capital to take a
majority stake in the Company. Wexford has a history of turning around distressed
assets in the resource space and has essentially financed Marlin through to production
with a series of rights offerings, while also installing an excellent Management team
and Board.
With Trinidad construction nearly half complete and positive cash flow within sight for
early 2014, we believe Marlin is highly undervalued. Of particular interest is the FCF
yield offered by Marlin, which amounts to 270% cumulatively over the initial five year
mine life at spot gold prices ($1,300/oz). With no major financing or permitting hurdles,
a favorable project jurisdiction, and a capable Management team, we see no reason
for the valuation discount.
We believe the current situation offers new investors disproportionate upside as the
largest shareholder has a C$0.07 per share cost base and the motivation/experience
to generate a positive return. We also believe the fully funded free cash flow profile at a
straightforward operation with vast exploration upside makes Marlin a strong
acquisition target.
We are initiating coverage with a Buy rating and C$0.15 target price.
Meanwhile, we need to consider that for the purposes of context the Cormark analysis assumes
the successful closing of the current backstopped rights issue (Wexford doing the backstopping
of course) and that the share count goes to 680m S/O, 726.7m F/D with insiders (i.e. Wexford)
holding 547m shares. Those assumptions sound reasonable to me, though for the moment
we’re sticking with the official current count on these pages.
The report is a sellside long idea and as such, it’s fine. I agree on many of the points it makes
too, but I’m still not a buyer of MLN, although there may be a potential for the M&A trade later
on. With Wexford holding so much control of MLN, the theory goes that they’d want to
consolidate full ownership, take MLN
private and have all that luverley gold
for themselves (it’s always been their
target). Buying out the remnant public
shares may turn out to be a decent
M&A play, but funny things can happen
around the time of mine start-ups and
although any buyout would surely come
at a premium price to market, I’ve yet
to work out what the market price will
be come the day of the buyout move. It
could be at today’s 6.5c, it could be
higher, but if things go wrong on the
ramp-up, it could be lower too. It’s a
story I’m keeping more than one eye
upon, but only for a trade at a specific time and even that is as yet undecided.
Regional politics
Colombia’s miner’s strike update
English language site ‘Colombia Reports’ has kept close tabs on the ongoing miners’ strike in
the country, with this weekend’s update (5) stating that the government has taken a hard-line,
“take it or leave it” attitude at the negotiation table that has not gone down well with strikers.
The strike therefore continues and marches are planned for next week, particularly around the
city of Medellín. Meanwhile, Spanish language local media continues to document the clashes
between miners and police/army units, such as this one on video (6) at an illegal roadblock in
the Risaralda region on Saturday or this one (7) documenting 10 injured during violence at
Marmato (a word you’d immediately recognize if you’ve followed the disaster zone that is
GCM.to) in the Caldas region.
12

Finally by way of comment, I find it interesting that this strike is getting very little media
attention in the English speaking North. There’s little doubt in my mind that if it were happening
in a “non-friendly” country’s mining region such as Argentina you’d have wall-to-wall coverage
on the sometimes violent clashes and non-stop commentary about the strike being yet another
indication of how the unstable government was about to fall. Or something similar at least.
Ecuador: Kinross may get something out of Fruta del Norte after all
There has been plenty of talk in Ecuador about the Fruta del Norte gold project this week, as
the official deadline for the Kinross decision to keep or hand back the deposit happened on
Friday. As this report (along with many others) notes (8), the local head of Kinross Ecuador,
Dominic Channer (who’s been on board the FDN project since its Aurelian days) was present
along with his delegation at the Ecuador Mining Ministry on Thursday for continued talks, with
details not forthcoming from tight lips on all sides about the subjects under discussion.
However, it’s become clear that Chinese money, in the shape of China vehicle Junefield
Resources, is in advanced stage talks to take over the project with a view to putting it into
production in less than one year. And although officially Kinross is now out of the picture and
the hand back leaves the company with nothing (apart from a $720m write-down on assets),
the company has already stated that it’s keen on a “mutually acceptable deal” which is thinly
disguised code for “give us some compensation”. And the likelihood is that K will get some cash
payment too, not least for the detailed technical information it holds on the project (drilling,
advanced geological studies etc) that a company like Junefield will be very keen on getting its
hands on if it wants to aim for a very tight schedule for eventual first production (in fact a new
company offering to produce in less than a year is perhaps even reckless and is bound to raise
questions about operational and environmental safety). The three sides are clearly talking and
with K officially calling its pull-out via ts 2q13 financials, a deal is probably in the offing. With
Kinross currently expected to get zero zip nada (barring that $720m balance sheet hole) from
FDN, anything the company can rescue would probably be seen as a bonus by the market but
with 1.14Bn shares currently outstanding, any cash received from a deal would have to be
pretty sizeable in order to make a difference at share price level. That’s unlikely to happen.
Nicaragua and Canada to work on a bilateral trade deal
It’s been a long-term goal in Canada to get a trade deal, of the Free Trade/Tariff type, with the
so-called CA-4 countries of Central America (comprising Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala and
Honduras). However, up to now the deal has never really got off the ground and that is likely
connected to the way in which Canada wants to promote its main know-how export of mining
in the region but at least one of the members, El Salvador, has been very anti-mining in recent
times. Therefore the news last week that Canada is now looking to reach either a full
agreement with CA-4 or a simple bilateral agreement with Nicaragua catches the eye. The
decision is a mutual one too, as the two countries signed a memorandum to work together in
order to reach said deal.
We’ve tracked the progress made by Nicaragua in the mining field and they way in which it’s
become, to the surprise of some northern commentators who consider its hard-left leader
President Daniel Ortega before actual facts or data, the go-to region for mining development in
the region between Mexico and South America (BTO.to the poster child, of course).
At the presser to announce the working group was Canada’s Minister of Foreign Relations John
Baird and President Ortega and it’s the Ortega comments (9) that are particularly interesting.
Direct quotes translated: “Specifically it would be in the best interests of Nicaragua, its
economy and its producers, to reach a commercial agreement with Canada, an issue that e and
Chancellor Baird now have on agenda to continue working in this direction. [Canada] is already
present [in Nicaragua] in the mining sectors, in the tradition mining regions such as the Wes,
the North Atlantic Zone and in Chontales.”
As a slight aside, we note that Chancellor Baird is currently on a LatAm regional visit and will be
down this way until August 9th. As well as his stay in Nica last week, he’s due to visit Costa
13

Rica, Colombia, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay and Brazil.
Chile: Energy costs at record highs
The title of this report in Chile’s high circulation “serious” newspaper La Tercera (10) is
(translated) “July Marks Record in Energy Costs Due to Drought and Hike in Oil Prices” and
along with the subhead that goes “During the month average U$230.50/MWh, a price 69%
higher than in July of 2012” sums up the
situation well. We’re also given this chart
that shows the margin costs of electricity in
every July month since 1998 and gives the
July 2013 number good context.
It must be said that July, along with August
is traditionally one of the highest cost
months of the year for energy, because it’s
when the hydro stations are at pre-melt lows
(the ice in the Andes starts turning to water
and running downhill as from the end of the
worst of the winter weather, starting
September) and the country needs to
depend on its hydrocarbon (oil, gas, coal)
fired power stations the most. However, the tendency is clear and it adds to the pressure on
costs for the mining industry in Chile. It’s unlikely to be a coincidence that Peru’s Mining
Ministry has again been pushing its cost advantages in relation to Chile in the mining sphere,
with the country’s Mining Minister Jorge Merino saying (11) during a radio interview Wednesday
(that was picked up by the State news agency Andina), “We are very competitive in energy.
The cost of energy in Peru at peak hours is four time less than in Chile.”
Market Watching
Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) (FSM) redux
Our main featured stock last week, FVI didn’t move up any further towards the $4 level and
spent nearly all the week fiddling around in the
$3.50 to $3.70 range. Fair enough and I can’t say
I’m surprised, but it’s also correct to say that FVI’s
performance was typical of the wider market, no
more nor less than others.
However, a pre-req for any decision to short FVI
(again, probably via the easier FSM NYSE listing) is
a move above $4 and to perhaps $4.20, which now
seems less likely. With the 2q13 earnings report
now just around the corner and expected to come
in on the soft side, the window for any trade may
be closing here. So be it, after all “avoid” is as valid
a call as “long” or “short” in my book.
Working on Buenaventura (BVN)
There’s no decision or call being made. There are no secrets either, therefore I think it correct
to mention in a couple of lines here today that I’ve spent most of my working week taking a
close look at Buenaventura (BVN) with a view to it becoming an investment position at some
point. The initial conclusions are that it looks cheap, its books are in relatively good order and
it’s certainly one of the companies that will weather the storm and enjoy the eventual upside
once the sector rebounds. However, it’s probably not the right time to buy in now and there
may be more downside coming in the nearest of the near term.
14

What prompted BVN as a subject for study is a growing feeling that started a couple of weeks
ago when I noticed that BTO was at 50% of the market cap of BVN and even though I’m an
obvious fan of BTO as a company, it gets to the point when the depressed prices of the bigger
players start to impede on the future growth prospects of the younger upstarts. The initial
feeling was that the BVNs of this world would need to put in a rebound in order to allow some
“space” for the lower-tier companies to continue growing in size and value. Yes we like the
profitability of BTO and the growth in production too, but perspective is also required. For
example, the current BTO guidance of 360,000 to 380,000 for the 2013 year compares to the
375,000 oz gold that BVN produced and sold this 2q13 quarter, and that’s without even
mentioning the 4.5m oz silver or the lead, zinc and copper credits. On another subject, BTO’s
growth pipeline is nothing to be sniffed at and we’ve chewed over its organic expansion
prospects enough times already, but it pales next to the extensive asset book enjoyed by BVN,
mostly in Peru, too.
Anyway, I’m not going to bang on too much about this today because an investment call hasn’t
been made yet and there’s probably no need to make one in the very near future either, what
with BVN’s mediocre 2q13 results keeping the lid on any rebound potential for the moment. But
I quickly found that it’s a more than interesting company at the moment and at its current
share price levels.
Atna Resources (ATN.to) results and gossip
On Wednesday evening ATN reported its 2q (12) and the numbers weren’t good, nor was the
guidance about covering financial obligations (find
the list of concerns in both the financials and the
MD&A). The stock as a result did what you can see
in this five day chart, but the interesting one was
the reaction that came after the worst of the selling
had done its thing, as Friday’s action was a long
way from bad and went at least some way to
backing up a tune this desk pocked up on the
sector jungledrums Thursday and Friday.
I’d expect a fair percentage of readers know this
stock at least as well as I, as it’s one bullet I’ve
managed to dodge during 2012 and 2013, having
looked at it a couple of times and passed (due to balance sheet frets more than anything else,
for what that’s worth). What’s more, I’m pretty sure there’s at least a few of you that know this
company a lot better than I, for various reasons too.
And what I’m 100% sure is that nearly all of you will know that ATN got itself into real
problems recently as its Pinson mine has underperformed to the extent that it’s now on care
and maintenance only and will not be able to contribute the expected revenues to help pay
down its rather large and looming debt pile.
But even though this one isn’t a normal subject of conversation on these pages, I think it fair to
pass on a little piece of gossip picked up that ATN is now being considered as a merger target
by a large mining company (not a big company, just a larger one than ATN). I will not, repeat
NOT be trading on this gossip picked up, mostly because I’m away from the office next week
and I’m not going to break my sphericals in order to set up what would probably turn out to be
be just another smallish, near-term-ish trading position (I have enough of those already) and
I’m much more interested about tramping about on some dusty track and enjoying some rural
scenery. But considering shape and source I do think it fair to pass this snippet along. Do with
this what you will.
15

More Lowell Copper (JDL.v)
"Cowards die many times before their deaths,
The valiant never taste of death but once."
Julius Caesar, Act 2, Sc II, ll 32-37
On Thursday we again got a Q&A from David Lowell on his new Lowell Copper (JDL.v) vehicle
and the thoughts behind the Ricardo property that the company has picked up, this time at
Mineweb (13). This whole issue was treated in some detail in IKN219 last month (with some
follow-up in IKN220) but apart from noting that it’s once again interesting to see the interview-
shy Lowell doing the promo thing with media, it wasn’t a story that I had planned to cover any
further for the time being. Until a mail was received on Friday. The mail came from somebody
who remains anonymous, but it’s fair to say that he knows the property very well and due to
that, he could give a lot more background as to how the Ricardo concession came to be.
In the early 1990s the theory behind the hunt for the “lost part of Chuqui” (see IKN219 and
other places, including that Thursday Q&A) was already almost certainly well known to Lowell,
because his partner on many of his academic papers, John Guilbert (including that famous 1970
paper that defined porphyry deposits forever, mainly thanks to a neat little sketch), was in close
contact with people working the area including one Richard Baker (who had been posted as an
Adjunct Professor at the University of Arizona at Guilbert’s behest). To lapse a little into geol-
speak, Baker had mapped the West Fissure (the key structure to the Chuquicamata deposit.)
for Anaconda in the 1960s and claimed to have recognized that Chuqui was faulted, with the
other half lying south of Calama by virtue of the now (infamous) supposed “left-lateral slip”.
The upshot to this theory is the idea that Ricardo hosts the “the other half” of Chuqui. And in
fact, the name of the concession “Ricardo” comes from the name of the self-proclaimed theory
generator behind it, Richard Baker.
It also turns out that Baker was not only a bit of a snake-in-the-grass, but a desperate one too
who he had recently shunned the bottle. Although supposedly contracted by the University of
Arizona and in charge of Guilbert’s Chilean field program, he spent most of his time in Chile that
year doing virtually no work related to the university project, living large, getting the Ricardo
claim staked under his name, and then pitching the project to anyone that was interested, all
on university money, including big-name companies such as Rio Tinto. In the end Rio Tinto
didn’t bite, but it did give Baker a consulting contract and royally pissed off John Guilbert since
Baker had done precious little work for the university while on its payroll, then quit. What
happened then is that the VP Exploration for Codelco took out an option on Ricardo, but the
story goes that Codelco was just as keen to stop other people exploring Ricardo and finding
something in their own back yard. From that point, we already know from the list in IKN219
about the exploration and drilling programs that have gone on at Ricardo and have yielded very
little by way of results. We need to note as well that although not disproven, there has never
been general agreement about the “left-lateral slip” theory among those structural geologists
that have studied the problem and that drilling up to now hasn’t done much to help its cause.
16

As for Richard Baker, namesake behind the Ricardo project and the founder of a theory that
has managed to entice enough large companies and smart geological teams into looking at the
property without finding anything of worth, he was found dead in his room at the Park Hotel in
Calama sometime later in the 1990’s. He left his recently married wife with a hefty credit-card
debt to clear up, too.
Meanwhile, since trading started in JDL.v the stock has been pushed up to 90c and the low
volumes traded make it clear that it’s tough to get any sort of position, with small players
wanting a piece having to pay up. The result is that JDL.v now runs a market cap of $62.16m
and that’s a lot considering our previous calculation on the value here, now updated:
• Market Cap: $62.16m (69.57m S/O)
• Working Cap: ~$11m
• Goodwill (i.e. hope, or "Lowell's Brain" to be generous with the wording): $51m.
So yes, if the quasi-legendary “other bit” of Chuqui is found there’s an awful lot of percentage
upside to today’s share price. But if it’s not, there’s a helluva lot of percentage downside in
play, too. However, you’re less likely to hear about that from the Vancouver promo crew.
Conclusion
IKN222 is done, here are some bullet points:
• Rio Alto (RIO.to) (RIOM) is still a buy, now even more so than last week (when I said
exactly the same darned thing at this same point) because it’s just had a killer July at
the mine. You have been duly warned.
• The more I find out about Lowell Copper’s Ricardo project, the less I like the odds on
offer. Though I must say it’s going to be fun watching the promo develop and I’ll even
take my lumps if the genius head man hits the big paydirt and I get all my cynicism
deservedly thrown back in my face. But this one is definitely for other people, not me.
• Reservoir Minerals (RMC.v) is becoming an itch that I need to scratch. It’s now frankly
annoying me that I’m not a holder yet. As for the other interesting copper exploreco,
NovaCopper (NCQ.to), it’s good, not great. If I’m going to buy one of these, there’s no
doubt at all in my mind which one is at the top of the list now.
• This edition is getting sent out earlier than usual this Sunday because I have a bus to
catch. See you all next weekend.
The top long-term picks are Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) and B2Gold (BTO.to). I thank you in
advance for any feedback sent in. Flash updates will be sent promptly if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Otto
17

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) http://www.goldresourcecorp.com/releases/GRC-2013-07-26-1.pdf
(2) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/b2gold-corp-second-quarter-2013-214154958.html
(3) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/novacopper-announces-positive-preliminary-economic-110000548.html
(4) http://www.novacopper.com/s/Presentations.asp
(5) http://colombiareports.com/santos-government-fails-to-reach-agreement-with-miners/
(6) http://www.cmi.com.co/m/p/u.asp?ig=3847
(7) http://www.noticiasrcn.com/nacional-pais/disturbios-paro-minero-dejan-al-menos-10-heridos
(8) http://hablemosdemineria.com/2013/08/02/junefield-negocia-concesiones-mineras-con-
kinross/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+HablemosDeMineria+%28Hablemos+
de+mineria%29
(9) http://noticias.lainformacion.com/economia-negocios-y-finanzas/mineria/nicaragua-y-canada-se-comprometen-a-
buscar-un-acuerdo-comercial_M2XR6ksEI8XqDKFZCJMMQ6/
(10) http://www.latercera.com/noticia/negocios/2013/07/655-535367-9-julio-marca-record-en-costo-de-energia-por-ano-
seco-y-alza-del-petroleo.shtml
(11) http://www.andina.com.pe/espanol/noticia-peru-es-atractivo-para-inversion-minera-sus-bajos-costos-energia-
468576.aspx
(12) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/atna-reports-second-quarter-2013-210000663.html
(13) http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en//mineweb-exploration?oid=199591&sn=Detail
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2012
Closed in 2012 closed close PPS
Soltoro SOL.v jan'12 C$0.87 07-nov-11 C$0.94 8.0% cash moved to BCM.v
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to feb'12 C$0.84 13-oct-10 C$0.98 16.7% trade closed on ELG.v offer
Minefinders MFN feb'12 U$11.68 17-nov-11 U$14.80 26.7% target made, trade closed
Iron Creek IRN.v mar'12 C$0.58 26-sep-10 C$0.31 -46.6% time up on small bad trade
U.S. Silver USA.to apr'12 C$2.18 15-mar-12 C$1.86 -14.7% ST trade no good, cut loss
Augusta Res. AZC.to may'12 C$3.10 29-ene-12 C$2.07 -33.2% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Bellhaven BHV.v may'12 C$0.50 22-sep-10 C$0.28 -44.0% new mgmt not impressive
Zincore Metals ZNC.to may'12 C$0.325 29-jul-11 C$0.17 -47.7% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Soltoro SOL.v may'12 C$0.70 18-mar-11 C$0.41 -41.4% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
U.S. Silver USA.to aug'12 C$1.78 27-jul-12 C$1.36 -23.6% fail ST trade close pre split
Estrella Gold EST.v aug'12 C$0.91 27-mar-11 C$0.14 -84.6% Closed on port realignment
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'12 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.32 397.2% sell call $6.17/ Mar25
Strait Minerals SRD.v oct'12 C$0.125 09-dic-11 C$0.12 -4.0% closing coverage til FY13
Sunward Res SWD.to oct'12 C$1.47 13-mar-11 C$1.21 -17.7% sold, took loss
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'12 U$21.47 09-sep-12 U$17.40 19.0% Short trade closed
Yellowhead Min. YMI.to nov'12 C$1.00 01-abr-12 C$0.63 -37.0% sold, took loss
Primero Mining PPP nov'12 U$7.26 07-oct-12 U$6.73 7.3% Short trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v nov'12 C$3.38 07-nov-11 C$3.72 10.1% Took small profit
Vena Resources VEM.to dec'12 C$0.70 31-may-09 C$0.18 -74.3% Failed trade (caps F)
Galway Res GWY.v dec'12 C$2.19 24-nov-12 C$2.30 5.0% closed good ST arb trade
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2011
Closed in 2011 closed close PPS
Sunward Res SWD.v jan'11 C$1.05 21-nov-10 C$1.63 55.2% target made, trade closed
Serengeti Res SIR.v mar'11 C$0.245 05-dec-10 C$0.285 16.3% sold pre-tgt, ST trade fail
Fronteer Gold FRG apr'11 U$2.37 03-may-09 U$15.24 543.0% buyout, trade closed
Minefinders MFN apr'11 U$9.09 07-nov-10 U$16.89 85.8% target made, trade closed
Metalline Min. MMG may'11 U$1.04 26-jan-11 U$0.89 -14.4% exit, resource disappointed
Peregrine Met PGM.to jul'11 C$0.87 06-mar-11 C$2.60 198.9% buyout offer, closed
Dynasty Metals DMM.to jul'11 C$4.20 03-may-09 C$2.85 -32.1% Sold. Fail. Move on.
Aura Silver AUU.v aug'11 C$0.22 13-oct-10 C$0.16 -36.4% Bad pick. Take loss
U.S. Silver USA.v aug'11 C$0.52 26-jan-11 C$0.71 36.5% closed to make room
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'11 C$2.80 12-may-11 C$4.27 52.5% target made, trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v sep'11 C$3.80 27-may-11 C$4.17 9.7% macro sell call victim
Minefinders MFN sep'11 U$14.70 10-aug-11 U$15.15 3.1% macro sell call victim
Great Panther GPR.to sep'11 C$3.03 22-aug-11 C$2.64 -12.9% macro sell call victim
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'11 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.36 400.9% sold 20%, macro sell call
Focus Ventures FCV.v nov'11 C$0.40 20-apr-10 C$0.20 -50.0% cut losses, bad trade
Regulus Res. REG.v dec'11 C$1.17 14-aug-11 C$0.52 -55.6% cut on news of poor 43-101
2009 and 2010 closed positions in appendices below
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2010
Closed in 2010 closed close PPS
B2Gold Corp BTO.to Jan'10 C$0.88 08-nov-09 C$1.49 68.2% target made, trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v Jan'10 C$0.18 23-aug-09 C$0.40 122.2% target made, trade closed
MAG Silver MVG mar'10 U$5.60 23-nov-09 U$7.28 30.0% closed in pdac week
Riverside Res RRI.v mar'10 C$0.435 20-sep-09 C$0.60 37.9% closed in pdac week
Amarillo Gold AGC.v mar'10 C$0.81 31-may-09 C$0.70 -13.6% closed in pdac week
B2Gold Corp BTO.to apr'10 C$1.24 18-feb-10 C$1.50 21.0% target made, trade closed
Lumina Copper LCC.v apr'10 C$0.84 14-jun-09 C$1.55 51.2% total position now sold
Troy Resources TRY.to may'10 C$1.10 03-may-09 C$2.25 104.5% sold on negative results
AuEx Ventures XAU.to may'10 C$2.51 24-may-09 C$3.38 34.7% trade closed
Nevada Copper NCU.to jun'10 C$3.27 14-mar-10 C$2.03 -37.9% need to lower Cu exposure
Carpathian Gold CPN.to jun'10 C$0.39 14-mar-10 C$0.35 -10.3% too exposed to cap raising
Amerix PM Corp APM.v jun'10 C$0.065 08-nov-09 C$0.05 -23.1% victim of macro bear
Antares Minerals ANM.v jun'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$2.10 47.9% sold half
Vena Resources VEM.to jun'10 C$0.37 31-may-09 C$0.23 -37.8% sold half
Minera Andes MAI.to sep'10 C$0.75 28-jul-10 C$0.95 26.7% ST trade closed
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to sep'10 C$0.52 01-aug-10 C$0.75 44.2% target made, trade closed
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'10 C$1.45 25-may-10 C$2.01 34.5% target made, trade closed
Blue Sky Uran BSK.v oct'10 C$0.41 19-may-10 C$0.22 -46.3% v small v bad trade closed
Dia Bras Expl DIB.v oct'10 C$0.14 30-aug-09 C$0.35 150.0% target made, trade closed
S. Amer. Silver SAC.to nov'10 C$1.38 24-oct-10 C$1.60 -15.9% loss on short, small fail
Ventana Gold VEN.to nov'10 C$7.92 27-jun-10 C$13.51 70.6% trade closed on buyout
Lumina Copper LCC.v nov'10 C$1.42 11-aug-10 C$3.65 157.0% trade closed
Antares Minerals ANM.v dec'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$8.40 491.5% trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.v dec'10 C$0.69 23-mar-10 C$2.16 213.0% trade closed
Coro Mining COP.to dec'10 C$0.585 03-oct-10 C$1.24 112.0% target made, trade closed
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2009
Closed positions closed closing PPS
Cardero Res CDY/CDU.to May'09 U$1.20 03-May-09 U$0.87 -27.5% sold on negative news
Eastmain Res. ER.to May'09 C$1.04 06-May-09 C$1.315 26.4% trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v May'09 C$0.165 03-May-09 C$0.235 42.4% trade closed
Latin Amer Min. LAT.v May'09 C$0.12 03-May-09 C$0.158 29.2% trade closed
Aquiline Res. AQI.to July'09 C$2.03 16-Jun-09 C$1.68 -17.2% took loss, bad timing
Chariot Resources CHD.to Aug'09 C$0.20 12-Jul-09 C$0.415 107.5% trade closed
Castle Gold CSG.v Sep'09 C$0.64 02-Aug-09 C$0.60 -6.3% ST trade didn't work out
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to Sep'09 C$2.30 12-May-09 C$4.50 95.7% profit taken
Los Andes Copper LA.v Sep'09 C$0.09 21-Jun-09 C$0.09 0% trade closed
Pediment Gold PEZ.to Oct'09 C$0.80 09-Aug-09 C$1.00 25.0% trade closed
Minera Andes MAI.to Oct'09 C$0.68 03-May-09 C$0.71 4.4% too much bad news
Dynasty Metals DMM.to Nov'09 C$4.18 03-May-09 C$6.01 43.8% half sold
Rusoro Mining RML.v Nov'09 C$0.55 03-May-09 C$0.57 3.6% underperformed
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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