IKN #214Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 214, June 9th 2013
Contents
This Week: An issue of four stocks.
Fundamental Analysis: IMPACT Silver (IPT.v)
Stocks to Follow: Overview, Rio Alto (RIO.to) (RIOM), Bellhaven (BHV.v), B2Gold (BTO.to)
(BTG), OceanaGold (OGC.to) (OGC.ax), Focus Ventures (FCV.v), Minera IRL (IRL.to) (MIRL.L),
Duran Ventures (DRV.v), Lara (LRA.v), Bear Creek (BCM.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Panoro Minerals (PML.v), Strait Minerals (SRD.v), Reservoir
Minerals (RMC.v).
The Lottery Ticket Basket: Overview, Marlin Gold (MLN.v).
Regional Politics: Esperanza Resources (EPZ.v) denied its environmental permit, Tahoe
Resources (THO.to) (TAHO): The Alberto Rotondo case in Guatemala, Colombia: Tolima
marches against AngloGold Ashanti’s Colosa project, Ecuador: Mining law reform moves to the
final stage.
Market Watching: Bellhaven Copper and Gold (BHV.v), The Philippines mining law proposals
B2Gold (BTO.to) and OceanaGold (OGC.to), Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) thoughts.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
An issue of four stocks
We do touch on other issues and matters around the edges, but this week’s edition of The IKN
Weekly concentrates on four of our covered and owned companies in particular, as there’s been
plenty of newsflow about them.
• Bellhaven Copper & Gold (BHV.v): Thanks to its roaring start.
• Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) (RIOM): Due to its newsflow and strongly negative market
price action of last week.
• B2Gold (BTO.to) and also its new US ticker (BTG): Due to the apparent over-reaction
and selling on the news about mining tax reform in The Philippines (with OceanaGold
also in the mix)
• IMPACT Silver (IPT.v): We catch up with its performance in 1q13 and consider the
stock’s fundamentals.
No big intro this week, we just dive straight in.
1

Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Updating IMPACT Silver (IPT.v)
This is a note I’ve been meaning to get to for a couple of weeks ever since IPT released its
1q13 results on May 23rd. What follows updates the
original charts and analysis offered in IKN193 dated
January 13th 2013 (feel free to mail if you want a copy
re-sent) that saw an update with the 4q12 results in
IKN205 dated April 17th 2013.
The top operations story to take away from IPT in 1q13
is that the re-ramping of production at the company is
going well. The new mining operations at the
Cuchara/Oscar end of RMZ are improving grade at its
main Mines of Zacualpan (RMZ) operation as expected
(see this small chart right) and this improvement is
likely to continue in the next quarters.
Also, throughput is rising nicely with an average of
472tpd reported in 1q13, which puts the company on
the way to its intermediate term term of 500tpd. If we
take a longer view we can see how IPT has slowly but
surely added throughput capacity to its RMZ ops, so it’s
reasonable to assume the company target will be
achieved.
All that (and an implied 84% recovery rate, better than
our assumed 81%) means that IPT produced well in 1q13 and has got off to a better start than
I expected in 2013. Production came in at 165,651 oz Ag which was 15k higher than our model,
while sales at 163,065 oz Ag were much better than expected, as IPT clearly decided not to
send ounces to inventory as we’d previously assumed (in hindsight, a good thing).
IPT: Production and Sales, plus FY13 forecast
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2
11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 tse31q2 tse31q3
g/t Ag IPT: Silver head grades at Guadalupe mill
160 145 146
140 129 131
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2q12 3q12 4q12 1q13
source: company filings
IPT: Throughput tonnes per day, avg per qtr
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Oz Ag
Ag production
Ag Sales
source: IPT data, IKN estimates
As a result of the good first quarter from Cuchara/Oscar (the separate Capire mine, we remind
readers, is not expected to add a great deal for the first couple of quarters of 2013 and will only
really get into its stride in 2014 onwards) we’ve shifted our production expectations for IPT
upwards for the next couple of quarters, as seen above. Largely due to the decent uptick in
grades, by 3q13 we now expect IPT to be producing over 200k oz Ag/qtr, which will be a large
step in the right direction and towards the company plan of becoming a 1m oz/year producer in
the medium-term.
That’s the good news, now the bad news. The good news is that IPT the company is executing
well in 2013. The bad news is the price of silver. This chart, created from the data provided by
Kitco on the London Silver Fix (1) shows that silver has dumped back to market prices last seen
70q1 70q2 70q3 70q4 80q1 80q2 80q3 80q4 90q1 90q2 90q3 90q4 01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1
tpd
source: company filings

in the third quarter of 2010 which a problem for the sector as a whole of course, not just IPT.
Average quarterly silver price
45
40 38.07 38.79
35 31.08 31.82 32.62 30.5 29.91 32.64 30.08
30 25.96
23.6
25
18.78
20
15
10
5
0
3
01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 tse31q2
U$/oz Ag
source: London Fix/Kitco data/IKN ests for 2q13
But when it comes to our focus company today, here’s how revenues have been and are
forecast to be in the next couple of quarters. In fact revenues aren’t doing too badly and once
again, IPT did enough to return a Mine Operating Income (MOI) in 1q13 of $1.1m. We expect
revenues to drop to around $3.5m in the current quarter (even though MOI should remain
positive), but things get better 3q13 onwards as higher production levels at IPT offset the drop
in market price.
IPT: Revenues vs Mine Operating Income
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 tse31q2 tse31q3
U$m
revenues
MOI
source: company filings
However, this next chart shows that IPT in 1q13 posted its third net loss on the trot and we
expect that situation to continue in the next two
quarters. The non-mine costs at IPT are quite IPT.v: operating profit vs net profit per Qtr
5
modest in fact, but as it’s a small operation
4.5
every $100k counts. The losses have been and 4
3.5
are expected to remain modest, but losses they
3
are and although the company has apparently 2.5
cut its costs, IPT will need a stronger silver 2
1.5
price if it wants to return to bottom line 1
profitability under its current circumstances. 0.5
0
-0.5
This chart below, which takes the exact same
-1
data shown in the silver price quarterly average
chart above (red line) then places it against the
main op margin per tonne of rock mined by IPT
per quarter (revenues per tonne minus direct
costs per tonnes) shows just how quickly revenues rise under a stronger price schedule...and
how quickly the margins drop again. IPT is a leveraged play on silver which means its share
price comes under a lot of pressure when the silver price drops.
01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 tse31q2 tse31q3
source: company filings
srallod
SU
fo
snoillim
MOI net profit

IPT: How revenues are leveraged to silver price
$
170
Revenues - direct costs/tonne
150 silver price avg/qtr
130
110
90
70
50
30
10
3q10 4q10 1q11 2q11 3q11 4q11 1q12 2q12 3q12 4q12 1q13
source: London Fix/Kitco/IPT data
And surprise surprise, any resemblance between that blue line above and this IPT three year
price chart is unlikely to be coincidental:
But there is good news from IPT’s financials, too. The company is a tightly run ship that doesn’t
waste much cash on frivolities, also back when
80 IPT.v: Shares Outstanding
times were good had the foresight to raise capital
70
via equity placements (late 2010 and early 2011)
60
50
The result is a company with a decent looking
40
balance sheet. Here are the assets and liabilities
30
charts, including guesstimates for the current
20
quarter, which show a company with a decent 10
cash treasury position (and Capire now in 0
operation, instead of being a cash burning project)
that will be able to soak up easily enough the
small quarterly losses our model expects due to
the new low silver price.
4
01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 tse31q2 tse31q3
source: company filings
tuo
serahs
fo
snoillim
IPT.v: Asset Breakdown
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 tse31q2
source: company filings
srallod
SU
fo
snoillim
9 IPT.v: Debt Profile per Quarter
8
cash other current fixed assets 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 tse31q2
source: company filings
srallod
SU
fo
snoillim
current debt long term debt

Working capital underscores the strength in the balance sheet, with an IKN estimate of a little
over $15m as at the end of the current quarter.
So yes, IPT is making a loss right now but the
small size of those losses is covered by treasury
liquidity and IPT can go on for plenty of
quarters without coming under any sort of
liquidity crisis. As we fully expect silver to
rebound (eventually) we’re looking at one of
the most likely survivors of the small silver
space (it’s much easier to hold IPT than Great
Panther or Huldra, to name just two examples).
But of course, the price has fallen and it’s fallen
significantly from even the last time we looked
at the stock. Back in IKN205 IPT’s share price was 94c and we modelled forecasts on $28/oz
silver, which now seems like a long time ago. This chart is another one updated from previous
analyses and shows the book value (BV) per share of IPR compared to the share price at
quarter’s end (using the current 65c as our modelling assumption for end 2q13). The green line
shows the ratio between the two datasets.
5.0 IPT price and asset ratios
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
5
70q1 70q2 70q3 70q4 80q1 80q2 80q3 80q4 90q1 90q2 90q3 90q4 01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 tse31q2
IPT.v: Working Capital
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
BV/share
PPS end qtr
PPS/BV Ratio
source: IPT filings, IKN calcs
After its modest quarterly losses in the first half of 2013 we estimate IPT’s book value today at
87c/share, which means its share price has tumbled well below its book. That’s usually a sign of
a company that’s in serious trouble as a going concern and although you could make the case
for IPT in trouble if you’re a silver bear, its treasury position means that it will be able to carry
on for years (quite literally) without hitting a crisis point and, if at any point along the way silver
rebounds, IPT will surely move up too.
This final table gives an idea of IPT’s earning potential at different silver prices and at our new
preferred level of $22/oz (given market conditions) we even forecast the company to be able to
make a modest profit in a model year, assuming that the new operations continue to expand as
expected and production goes up. It’s not ever going to be king’s ransom stuff at $22/oz Ag but
it is a level that will allow IPT to see through an extended rough patch for world silver prices if
necessary.
01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 tse31q2
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

IPT.v: Income items for model year at differing silver prices
At 720k oz Ag/year $20/oz Ag $22/oz Ag $25/oz Au $30/oz Au
Sales 19.0 20.6 23.0 26.9
Cash COGS 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4
Depreciation 2 2 2 2
SGA 3 3 3 3
Op income 2.9 4.5 6.9 10.8
Interest 0 0 0 0
Workers Part. 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9
Tax at 30% 0.8 1.2 1.9 3.0
Net income 1.9 2.9 4.4 7.0
Shares out 68 68 68 68
EPS 0.03 0.04 0.07 0.10
Sust Capex -4 -4 -4 -4
FCF/sh -0.01 0.01 0.03 0.07
Sources: IPT/IKN data, IKN ests
Conclusion
At a market cap of just $44.28m, which includes an IKN estimated positive working cap of
$15.5m, IMPACT Silver (IPT.v) looks mightily cheap right now and although its higher cash cost
bracket positions it as a leveraged play to silver that could see it sell off further is the metal
takes another dive, I’m more than willing to risk holding the company through at current levels
for three reasons:
1) IPT will survive this sector downturn in good shape. We need to wait out the slump in
precious metals prices and although IPT won’t be making much of a profit, it’s a good
enough operator at its mine to be able to maintain operating free cash flow while
others around it will fracture cash. Its treasury position gives it plenty of breathing
space, too.
2) Its going about its 2013 job very well. Cuchara/Oscar is now online and feeding the
Guadalupe mill and the satellite Capire operation is out of construction and into
production, with both these projects delivered on time and in budget. We can expect
production to increase as the year goes on, too. The wider silver price issues are
beyond the company’s control, but IPT is delivering so far in 2013 and we like that.
3) If you want to own a potential takeover target in the space, look no further. At its
current market cap and with production moving up steadily towards the corporate
target of 1m oz per annum, a buyer of IPT today would be paying relatively small
change in return for adding a long life asset with plenty of exploration potential and a
decent slug of silver production to its books. We’ve seen some uptick i M&A activity in
recent weeks, with buyers searching for bargains. Any buyer of IPT wouldn’t be adding
a decent project, it would be adding an operating and cash flow positive operation to its
corporate structure, with low political risk profile to boot. The snag in this argument is
the cash cost profile because the better sector players probably wouldn’t want to add to
their average cash costs too much, but there are surely admin synergies to offset this
and perhaps the most attractive part is that IPT at RMZ would become a more efficient
operation if capex were spent at the mine. Small budget IPT cannot do this, but a
company such as First Majestic (FR.to) or even a smaller one such as Fortuna (FVI.to)
could afford to invest in the future of the mine.
We’re not valuing IPT on its earnings potential at the moment, this is more about its asset book
and its relative safety as a corporate during this low point for the sector. The 22c difference
between BV/share and PPS is the first gap that we’d expect closed and if so, that would imply a
33.8% upside to Friday’s close and that’s not a bad place for such a modest target. If you, like I
believe that the worst is now over for the precious metals market prices (in this specific case
silver), the consolidation we’re seeing around these new levels is putting in a strong base and
6

that we’re not likely to see the $18/oz (or even lower) predictions from our friendly
neighbourhood prophets of doom come to pass, then IMPACT Silver (IPT.v) is bound to rise
from its current price level, either from its own efforts or from a third party swooping to buy.
Due to the good start to 2013 operationally, the strong balance sheet and the potential for
quick share price upside (either via silver price rises or M&A), even after this painful silver
downdraft and the loss we’ve taken so far due wholly to the slump in silver, IPT remains
surprisingly easy to hold through. I can think of many riskier and more irresponsible ways to
hold exposure to silver today. We hold but if you don’t own and are looking for silver exposure,
put IPT on your shortlist. A good company that will enjoy any upside in the price of silver, but
isn’t going out of business anytime soon.
Stocks to Follow
Our 14 open positions had a bad week overall, with eight downers (RIO.to, RIO.to trade
position, BTO.to, IRL.to, OGC.to, LRA.v, DRV.v, PLA.v) one unchanged (AQM.v) and five uppers
(IPT.v, GORO short, BCM.v, FCV.v, BHV.v). There were big losers and big winners too, with the
worst losses in Rio Alto (RIO.to down 15.6%), Minera IRL (IRL.to down 12.5%), Duran
Ventures (DRV.v down 12.5%), Plata Latina (PLA.v down 10.5%) and B2Gold (BTO.to down
10%). There were strong upmoves in Bellhaven (BHV.v up 100.0%) and IMPACT Silver (IPT.v
up 14.0%) to leaven the load, however.
With the addition of the separate RIO.to trade and the BHV.v position there are now 14 stocks
on the open list, one less than our self-imposed maximum. Four of them are showing a profit,
ten are showing a loss.
Company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
Top Picks
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to hold C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$2.60 13.0% $6.29 tgt, added Apr13
B2Gold BTO.to buy C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$2.35 -23.5% $5.70 tgt added Apr '13
Recommends
Minera IRL IRL.to spec buy C$0.73 22-jul-12 C$0.28 -61.6% $1.56 tg, added, new avg
OceanaGold OGC.to buy C$3.03 16-sep-12 C$1.77 -41.6% $5.34 tgt growth prod
Lara Expl. LRA.v hold C$1.15 08-apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% solid biz model, LT hold
IMPACT Silver IPT.v spec buy C$1.14 13-jan-13 C$0.65 -43.0% $1.85 tgt Ag spec play
Gold Res Corp GORO short U$10.00 03-may-13 U$9.56 4.4% tgt $7.50
Duran Ventures DRV.v spec buy C$0.045 10-may-13 C$0.035 -22.2% new position, ST trade
Bear Creek BCM.v hold C$2.06 30-may-13 C$2.24 8.7% near-term, 2nd trade in '13
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to buy C$2.68 07-jun-13 C$2.60 -3.0% ST trade position, separate
Smaller/Riskier
AQM Copper AQM.v hold C$0.31 16-oct-11 C$0.035 -88.7% holding thru for my sins
Focus Ventures FCV.v spec buy C$0.175 01-jul-12 C$0.15 -14.3% revised tgt 25c
Plata Latina PLA.v selling C$0.79 10-apr-12 C$0.17 -78.5% trying to sell
Bellhaven BHV.v hold C$0.065 03-jun-13 C$0.13 100.0% new ST position, sell June
Closed in 2013 closed close price
USA Graphite USGT feb'13 U$0.93 08-jan-13 U$0.17 81.7% short tgt made/trade closed
Lachlan Star LSA.to feb'13 C$1.50 30-sep-12 C$0.95 -36.7% sold to reduce port risk
United Silver USC.to mar'13 C$0.21 28-oct-12 C$0.095 -54.8% small Ag sector trade, failed
Aurcana Corp AUN.v apr'13 C$1.07 11-nov-12 C$0.55 -48.6% closed on poor YE results
Gold Res Corp GORO apr'13 U$14.11 25-jan-13 U$9.38 33.5% short tgt made/trade closed
Marlin Gold MLN.v apr'13 C$0.075 10-feb-13 C$0.065 -13.3% closing this week (def)
Bear Creek BCM.v may'13 C$2.58 01-apr-13 C$2.40 -7.0% near-term, time ran out
Lupaka Gold LPK.to may'13 C$1.12 23-oct-11 C$0.32 -71.4% towel thrown in
Tahoe Resources TAHO may'13 U$18.62 08-apr-13 U$14.70 21.1% took profit on ST short
2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 closed positions in appendices below
7

Now for some notes on a selection of the above stocks.
Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) (RIOM): Trading position opened. I bought all I wanted at sub-
$3 price on Monday and was very happy with the purchase at the time, but the rest of the week
went from bad to worse and to the point when I was laughing at the action come Friday. So
much so that I bit the proverbial bullet and bought in again Friday to a size that’s a little bit
uncomfortable, even for my own taste in this Top Pick stock (it happens, it’s not all cold and
calm calculation, you know). I therefore find myself a little shorter on cash than I would prefer
in the portfolio and may accelerate a little of the selling if RIO.to does what it’s supposed to do
next week and puts in a rebound pop.
More on the big RIO.to sell-off last week in ‘Market Watching’ below. It needs extra space as
it’s one of the more important developments of the week, sad to say.
Bellhaven Copper & Gold (BHV.v): Position opened. As laid out last week, your author
opened this new and near-term envisaged trade on Monday and was happy to get all the 6.5c
wanted. Then came the news Wednesday and well, every once in a while a plan comes
together just right. It goes without saying that luck played a big role, as the assay results
turned up even earlier than your author expected (this week coming had been pencilled in), but
the reaction was straight out of the theoretical playbook for a strong intercept.
So we sit with a 100% winner after just one week, which is nice but the main question is what
to do with this position in the near future, not what’s happened to it in the near past. That we
do below in ‘Market Watching’ too.
B2Gold (BTO.to): BTO started the week in fine
style and motored as high as $2.80 Wednesday,
which was 19c up (+7.3%) on last Sunday’s
close and at that time I was feeling quite good
about things. Then the Philippine mining law
reform news hit and this five day chart speaks
eloquently on how that, along with renewed gold
weakness, was received.
We look into the issues in ‘Market Watching’
below
OceanaGold (OGC.to): Much the same story
here, with OGC doing well until midday Thursday
when marketwide panic about those nasty
Philippinos taking all our money saw the stock
dump hard. Once again, see ‘Market Watching’
below for more details.
Focus Ventures (FCV.v): Bits and pieces got
traded at 15c last week, which isn’t a bad thing.
We hear that progress has been slow on the
Reventon drilling but the by now hole two should
be done and off to the labs to join hole#1. All
things being equal, real news should begin to
flow as of this month and that’s just what the
doctor ordered here.
Minera IRL (IRL.to): Another week and no news on any financing deal, which again weighed
on the stock price. I’m going to catch up with the IRL people and find out what I can next week
(June 18th probably) because this is now dragging on too long.
8

Duran Ventures (DRV.v): We had news out of DRV (2) about its (supposed) flagship Aguila
copper project in Peru last week. Here’s the paydirt resource chart which came with the NR...
...and the main story here is that much of the resource has been moved out of the inferred
category and into the more reliable indicated, but along that process a little under 600m lbs Cu
(as well as some of the moly kicker) has been lost in the process. The trimming of inferred
totals as they move to indicated is normal, but that seems to be a comparatively big haircut
from the resource published March 2012, which is likely connected to DRV trying to be a little
more honest about its dealings for once.
To repeat, I’m only long DRV as a spec trade on its Minasnioc JV with RIO and don’t give a rat’s
ass about this so-called flagship, which isn’t much more than a small high grade centre
surrounded by a lot grade halo that a serious company would class as waste. Aguila is more of
a liability than an asset.
Lara Exploration (LRA.v): A headsup here, as LRA looks as though it’s about to go into a
new phase of more frequent news releases to market, both on results from its JV projects and
on the corporate side. LRA has had a quiet few weeks since that excellent Liberdade copper drill
result, but that’s about to change. Volumes remain low in the stock so the share price
fluctuations in the low-$1 band aren’t anything of concern.
Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v): This near-term trade is doing well enough and resisted the
worst of the Friday selling while its peers suffered more. We can let this one ride a few more
weeks if necessary, but if it pops I won’t hesitate in taking profits.
The Copper Basket
After twenty-three weeks of 2013 The Copper Basket is showing a 22.99% loss to level stakes.
9

company ticker price 1/1/13 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Resources NGQ.to 3.40 168.63 354.12 2.10 -38.2%
2 Augusta Res AZC.to 2.43 144.1 350.16 2.43 0.0%
3 Lumina Copper LCC.v 9.43 43.46 291.18 6.70 -29.0%
4 Copper Fox CUU.v 0.83 399.61 251.75 0.63 -24.1%
5 Nevada Copper NCU.to 3.50 80.5 185.96 2.31 -34.0%
6 Hot Chili Ltd HCH.ax 0.72 286.78 137.65 0.48 -33.3%
7 Reservoir Min. RMC.v 2.41 41.46 118.16 2.85 18.3%
8 NovaCopper NCQ.to 1.80 51.89 92.36 1.78 -1.1%
9 Western Copper WRN.to 1.39 93.78 69.40 0.74 -46.8%
10 Panoro Minerals PML.v 0.62 176.25 44.06 0.25 -59.7%
11 Curis Resources CUV.to 0.70 56.31 34.91 0.62 -11.4%
12 Candente Copper DNT.to 0.375 121.93 25.61 0.21 -44.0%
13 Yellowhead Min. YMI.to 0.59 60.97 24.39 0.40 -32.2%
14 Oracle Mining OMN.to 0.80 49.03 13.24 0.27 -66.3%
15 Strait Minerals SRD.v 0.08 56.86 5.40 0.095 18.8%
NB: HCH.ax priced in AUD$, rest CAD$ Portfolio avg -22.99%
The Copper Basket average lost less than one percentage point last week, even though the
count of 12 losers (not naming them all)
Copper Basket 2013 average, weekly
to just three winners (WRN.to, RMC.v,
16%
SRD.v) weighed heavily against it. That’s 12%
because most of the losers were smallstuff 8%
with just three in the 10%+ category, 4%
0%
headed by Oracle (OMN.to down 15.6%)
-4%
and followed by Candente (DNT.to down
-8%
12.5%) and Panoro (PML.v down 12.3%). -12%
Meanwhile all three winners were chunky -16%
-20%
sized gains, headed by the tiny Strait
-24%
(SRD.v up 18.8%) and followed by
Reservoir (RMC.v up 11.8% and Western
(WRN.to up 8.8%).
In other words it could have been worse for The
Copper Basket and the sector wasn’t helped by a
soft week for the metal, either. Copper was
arguably hurt more by the U.S. jobs report
reaction than gold (though PM stocks took the
brunt of the hit) and the metal, though at the
same level as this time last week (on a
downspike), didn’t show well at all pricewise.
We look at inventories, which hit something of a
holding pattern last week. World stocks rose by a
thin 1,489mt to 862,247mt (+0.2%), with the
breakdown being LME stocks up 0.2% to
609,875mt, Comex down 2.9% to 70,900mt and
Shanghai up 1.2% to 181,472mt. As for LME
cancelled warrants, they dropped a little but are
still in their new high bracket at 223,075mt or
36.6% of total stocks. On the subject of
warehousing and specifically the LME, this article
(3) reporting on the departure of the head of the
LME, Martin Abbott, makes the case that th choice of his successor will be a big clue to whether
the LME is about to loosen up its delivery system from warehouses and specifically allow more
10
ht6naj ht31 ht02 ht72 r3bef ht01 ht71 ht42 dr3ram ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpa ht41 ts12 ht82 t5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9
source: IKN calcs, TSX data
31/1/1
morf
egnahc
%

flow from the sheds to end users. True for all metals (esp alu) but it’s something we’ll keep an
eye on for our copper coverage.
Cancelled Warrants at LME, IKN157 to date
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
11
751NKI 951NKI 161NKI 361NKI 561NKI 761NKI 961NKI 171NKI 371NKI 571NKI 771NKI 971NKI 181NKI 381NKI 581NKI 781NKI 981NKI 191NKI 391NKI 591NKI 791NKI 991NKI 102NKI 302NKI 502NKI 702NKI 902NKI 112NKI 312NKI
source: Cochilco, LME
rof
yrotnevni
EML
%
latot
yreviled
resu-dne
Now for updates on just two of the basket stocks:
Panoro Minerals (PML.v): On considering the 12 month chart of Panoro (PML.v) versus
fellow Peru copper play Candente (DNT.to), I was surprised to note that PML has been kicked
every bit as hard as DNT, despite the fact that PML enjoys reasonably good local relations at its
flagship Cotabambas project while DNT is in the process, slowly but surely, of being kicked out
of town at Cañaris/Cañariaco.
It may be time to learn more about PML so I’m going to see if I can set up a meeting with the
local PML guys and find out more. The grade has never wowed me at Cotabambas, but those
who know the project say that mining should be cheap enough to offset that and Constancia
shows that majors will buy these things. Plenty of exploration upside to this too, we hear.
Reservoir Minerals (RMC.v): The darned thing just will not drop. Still looking to buy some as
long as a cheap price shows.
Strait Minerals (SRD.v): Although volumes remain thin it was another good week pricewise
for SRD, which has prompted your author to arrange a meeting with the team this month that’s
set to happen on June 18th in its Lima HQ. The reason I want to get face to face is to find out
as much as possible about the long-delayed permitting track for Alicia (the JV with Teck) and
also why Teck was amenable enough to sponsor SRD through with admin cash recently. All
finding reported back in a couple of issues’ time, but our comments last week about a tiny but
still interesting play that’s perhaps waking up were validated by what we saw in last week’s
market.

The Lottery Ticket Basket
After 23 weeks of 2013 The Lottery Ticket Basket is showing a 31.79% loss to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/13 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Marlin Gold MLN.v 0.10 379.9 22.79 0.060 -40.0%
2 Bellhaven BHV.v 0.14 137 17.81 0.130 -7.1%
3 Eagle Star Min. EGE.v 0.125 69.48 15.29 0.220 76.0%
4 Fancamp Expl. FNC.v 0.125 118.41 8.29 0.070 -44.0%
5 Tango Gold TGV.v 0.13 45.59 5.70 0.125 -3.8%
6 Gryphon Gold GGN.to 0.085 194.64 4.87 0.025 -70.6%
7 Glass Earth GEL.v 0.155 104.79 4.72 0.045 -71.0%
8 Copper North COL.v 0.10 58.62 3.81 0.065 -35.0%
9 AQM Copper AQM.v 0.08 105.57 3.69 0.035 -56.3%
10 Inca One Res. IO.v 0.12 34.0 3.40 0.100 -16.7%
11 Darwin Resources DAR.v 0.20 26.16 2.88 0.110 -45.0%
12 Cream Minerals CMA.v 0.03 155.34 2.33 0.015 -50.0%
13 Rio Cristal RCZ.v 0.025 149.26 2.24 0.015 -40.0%
14 Firestone Ventures FV.v 0.045 36.32 1.09 0.030 -33.3%
15 Netco Silver NEI.v 0.025 47.01 0.71 0.015 -40.0%
Portfolio avg -31.79%
The overall basket gained just under 2%, which isn’t bad considering the seven unchanged
positions which underscores the lack of
general interest in the tinycap end of the 25% Lottery Ticket Basket 2013 average, weekly
market. The list had four winners (BHV.v, 20%
15%
TGV.v, COL.v, IO.v) and four losers (MLN.v,
10%
GGN.to, EGE.v, DAR.v) and benefitted greatly 5%
from the move in Bellhaven (BHV.v up 0%
-5%
100.0%) of course, but Tango Gold Mines
-10%
(TGV.v up 31.6%) helped the average no end -15%
-20%
as well. To the downside we note a chunky
-25%
drop in sector hotpot Eagle Star (EGE.v down -30%
-35%
17.0%).
12
ht6naj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3bef ht01 ht71 ht42 dr3ram ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpa ht41 ts12 ht82 t5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj ht9
source: IKN Weekly data, TSX
2102/1/1
morf
egnahc
%

Marlin Gold (MLN.v): Wexford Capital showed its hand last week. The NR out of MLN on
Wednesday (4) announced the company would be running a $15m backstopped rights offering,
which means that the current 72% owner of MLN will guarantee the offering and buy up any
rights not exercised by the other 28% of owners. The last round of financing for MLN was a
similar deal and saw Wexford move its participation up from 54% to 72%, so we’ll likely see
more apathy form the minority holders this time around and Wexford will end up with over 80%
of all shares (if you want to run a sweep on the final number, put me down for 84%).
This also raises the money MLN needs to finish its construction job at Trinidad, but it also
makes it plain that the real prize Wexford is looking for is 100% of the company and to take the
mine private. Once this round of financing is done we’ll be close to a point where Wexford can
make an offer to those still left in and once over 90% ownership, move to compulsory purchase
of what’s left. That might sound bullish for the share price at first sight, but that’s not likely as
from here Wexford can sit on the PPS for as long as it wants and wear the minority ownership
down in a war of attrition style if it so desires. Timing will be important, so there is perhaps a
trade at some point (with luck just before Wexford makes an offer) but for the time being this
one can be left alone very easily.
I have to admire the way in which Wexford has gone about its business here, as it’s always
been pretty obvious that the fund wanted to have Trinidad all for itself and so far, it’s managed
to grab a lion’s share of equity at a bargain price. So good for them, but there’s no fun here for
retail, not at all.
Regional politics
Esperanza Resources (EPZ.v) denied its environmental permit
This is the story we’ve been following for a while and along the course of time the prospects of
the Cerro Jumil (now re-named Esperanza) gold project getting its permit from the Mexico
government environment Semarnat office moved from probable to doubtful. Last week a large
nail was struck into the coffin of this mine when on Friday (5) Semarnat officially denied the
necessary environmental permits to EPZ, much to the delight of the anti-mine activists in the
locality, along with the politicians who had recently adhered to the no mine campaign.
The decision was made on Wednesday June 5th but only made public Friday, with the main
reason cited being the concern over the
hydraulic resources in the area (i.e. any
mine might drain water away from
farmland) with the secondary reason being
the desire to protect a nearby archeological
zone. As yet there has been no word from
EPZ about this ruling, so we can expect
some sort of news release form the
company next week. By the looks of recent
trading (here’s the 10 day chart) the news
hasn’t been factored into the share price
yet either.
This is a blow to EPZ of course. It’s also
writing on the wall for other contentious
permitting stories, such as anything in the Baja California Sur area (another anti-mine region of
Mexico we’ve followed carefully).
Tahoe Resources (THO.to) (TAHO): The Alberto Rotondo case in Guatemala
The preliminary hearing in the case against Alberto Rotondo, erstwhile head of security at
Tahoe Resources (THO.to) (TAHO) Escobal mine and now accused of ordering the shooting of
people outside the mine gates, happened last Friday (6). Rotondo appeared in court, charges
were laid out and his house arrest order was ratified by the judge. Also, six of the people shot
13

outside the mine gates were allowed by the judge to be co-prosecutors (along with the State)
in the case, a legal move in Guatemala that means Rotondo will have no easy ride when the full
trial begins.
In other news, anti-mine groups in Guatemala made a formal complaint to the OSC in Toronto
Canada (7), accusing THO of hiding material developments from the general public in
connection with the Rotondo affair, something that THO denies. Finally and a little cattily, in a
decision that looks rather like shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted, THO is
currently looking to hire (8) a new Director of Corporate Responsibility. Details on that link if
you’re up for a challenge ☺.
Colombia: Tolima marches against AngloGold Ashanti’s Colosa project
Last Wednesday, the town of Tolima in Colombia, the largest town near the Anglogold Ashanti
(AU) La Colosa gold project, staged a mass protest march through the streets, with 25,000
people taking part according to the governor of the town (9) who led the anti-mining
demonstration, along with political representatives from several nearby towns and population
centres who all voiced their opposition to the Colosa project.
In other news, the Anglogold Ashanti director of communications for the La Colosa project
handed in his resignation on Friday (10) after having spent seven years in the post. His
departure comes just one week after the director of corporate affairs for La Colsa also resigned.
Ecuador: Mining law reform moves to the final stage
The stage is now set for the final congress vote before June 15th on the changes in the mining
law in Ecuador, as Thursday saw (11) the bill contents voted through by parliament. There
were some official “observations” (i.e. points that need clarification) brought up and those will
be part of the second debate, that may well happen by this time next week. Even if not, the
approval is now close and a near certainty, so expect President Correa to make a big fanfare
when he receives the approved bill and signs it into law later this month.
Market Watching
Bellhaven Copper and Gold (BHV.v): Buy, hold or sell?
Here’s a trade that’s working out well. The buy called last weekend, the purchase made at a
rock bottom 6.5c and then, just two days later, the type of news release we were looking for
(12) and a share price that shot higher on strong volume. It’s not often that you get a stock to
double in less than a week and although the position isn’t your author’s biggest (not by a long
way) it’s still a happy place to be right now and brings some cheer after watching the drubbing
taken by BTO.to and RIO.to.
Ok, a trade and a win (on paper), all well and good but what we need to do is look to the
future rather than the past and decide whether BHV today, at 13c rather than 6.5c, is a buy a
sell or a hold. Personally this is a near-term trade in a very trappy and nervous market and as
laid out last week I’d give it until late July at a pinch, but would prefer to have the trade closed
by the end of this month. Some basics:
At 137m shares out and 13c PPS, BHV now has a market cap of $17.8m
On asking this week, your author was told by management that the current treasury position is
around $3m. That’s not too bad but it’s hardly a king’s ransom and there’s little doubt that BHV
will have to finance again this year. Best guess would be in 3q13, but if somebody decides to
offer the company money before that time they’d be mad to turn it down in this market.
So let’s estimate market cap at $18m and EV at $15m.
For that you get a 2.55m AuEq resource at La Mina grading 1.0 g/t AuEq (roughly 2/3rds
straight gold and 1/3 copper kicker in gold equivalent terms) at a 0.3 g/t AuEq cut-off, that
14

resource centred on the main La Cantera Zone and then the smaller, lower grading Middle Zone
at the La Mina project The interesting upside is now being shown by the new La Garrucha zone
at La Mina (BHV optioning in on Anglogold’s neighbouring concession) and it’s anyone’s guess
what that might give us by way of a resource, as we only have the one hole announced last
week to go on so far.
So without La Garrucha in the calculation, La Mina’s resource is being priced at around U$7/oz
in situ (or less if you go with EV/oz). With La Garrucha (and you can throw in whatever amount
you like for a new resource there) that goes lower still, but even at $7 these are cheap gold in
situ ounces.
If they turn out to be mineable, that is. Up to now BHV at La Mina has suffered from a combo
of issues that have pushed the share price to these very low numbers (and recall, even after
last week the stock is still in negative territory year-to-date). One is the lack of size at La Mina
to really grab the attention and make it a
property that makes the potential buyout
lists. Another is the potentially high strip rate
for the reasonable-though-not big resource
so far: to get round strip rate issues from the
pipe-like mineralization at La Mina, size
makes a big difference. Another is the way in
which big low grade open pit projects are
now firmly out of fashion, be they decent
grading compared to peers or not. We’ve
seen this all across The Americas and in all
sizes of projects, from big ones in Chile
(XRC.to), Colombia (SWD.to), the Great
White North (NG) (ITH.to) or points in
between (CKG.v). Another is the potential for
social, community and political risk problems at the La Mina project, as the zone may not turn
out to be amenable to a large open pit mining operation due to local objections.
Anyway that’s a little background, now on to the call on what to do. I won’t lie, on Wednesday
morning when BHV powered straight to 13c and gave my very new position a 100% paper
profit I was tempted to mail out another Flash update and take the profits. But after
consideration I’ve decided to let the position run until the end of June and give BHV a month to
go higher, if it has the legs. Reasons
• I don’t like making snap decisions and so I didn’t jump to sell last week. That’s just me.
• BHV has completed the second hole of the series at La Garrucha, reportedly 422.25m
long with the results likely with us within two to three weeks. If that hole shows
confirmation of what we saw in last week’s NR, BHV will indeed have another large
resource to add to the targets already drilled and the stock should go higher (gold price
willing of course). On checking company literature and mag anomaly maps, the
Garrucha target looks double the size of the Cantera target. As Cantera holds 1.6m oz
Au (not AuEq, but Au) and is the bulk of the overall resource held by BHV at La Mina, if
the company gets lucky and finds double that at Garrucha we’re looking at a 5.5m oz to
6m oz gold mining project here, all at reasonable grade. The potential doubling of size
would move BHV into a different level of exploration junior and its price would not stop
at 13c.
• Between time, we can expect more new out of BHV and the company seems keen on
gaining radar and market traction. This new level of visibility is something I like.
• It was only ever going to be a short term trade and I’m sticking to that call. From here
it’s very unlikely that we’re going to have to book a losing trade, so letting the bet run a
15

little longer seems a reasonable speculative risk on a small position and one I’m willing
to take, if only for casino-type reasons. However be clear that this one will be closed at
some point in June.
However, I’m not chasing BHV and I won’t be adding any more. If you’re not on yet and want
to be, my best guess is to hold out for 10c as an entry point instead of paying the current 13c.
This is still a high risk stock (check those problems and/or potential issues above for more). My
bet is set and I’m happy with both its size and the way it has performed. It is however a limited
time trade and I see no reason to chase. We hold this month, then sell end June latest.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The Philippines mining law proposals, B2Gold (BTO.to) and OceanaGold (OGC.to)
Last week saw news out of The Philippines that negatively affected two of our ‘Stocks to
Follow’. In this section we consider the news, the way BTO.to and OGC.to traded afterwards
and the implications. We also go into a little more detail of the news on our Top Pick stock
BTO.to but leave the numbercrunching on OGC for another day.
Here’s a five day price chart of both of these shares (Toronto versions):
The reason we’re lumping these two stocks together this week is the “news” (put in inverted
commas for reasons explained below that started to hit the wires on Wednesday June 5th, (13)
but for some reason only got reaction as from around midday Thursday. The basic news is that
the government of The Philippines has proposed a new mining tax that would scrap the current
2% excise and 5% royalty (royalty where applicable) and replace it with a 10% charge on gross
metal values. Just about the best report on the details in English is the FT piece linked above
and here (13) but as it’s behind a registration wall, I’ve taken the liberty of pasting it out and
you can find it in Appendix 2 below. Meanwhile, there’s a mountain of reading material available
on the fallout (just Google the obvious keywords, though the Philippines publication ‘Business
Inquirer’ is a good place to start (here’s an example of their good follow-up reporting (14))).
That’s the general situation and story covered, not for points arising, which I’ll do in a semi-
connected series of paragraphs that try to cover all the issues.
Let’s get the mea culpa out of the way here, before moving to the issues that need to be dealt
with: I was behind the curve on this news and since midweek have been reading as much as
possible and playing catch-up. It’s a frustrating situation, this type of thing is always going to
be one of my Achilles’ Heels in the sector and it’s why I try hard to keep myself to LatAm based
companies only. When it comes to LatAm political risk factors I’m more immersed in the subject
and know more but with The Philippines I’m lost on the political scene, have little idea of the
ebb and flow, cannot read between the lines in the same way as my region of choice. As a
result, I’ve been mentally kicking myself for leaving myself exposed with not just one but two
16

covered stocks here at the Weekly (and in my own port). For the last three days the phrase
“Stick To LatAm You Idiot” has been on an endless loop in my head, mantra-syle.
Now to the issue. This is “news” that shouldn’t have come as a surprise to the market. To
begin, this isn’t the first time that the Aquino government has tried to push through a tax
reform on mining, as 2012 headlines will show (example here (15)). Secondly, the committee
that put together the law proposal made it clear in May (16) that the new law bill would be out
soon and even telegraphed the main points of its content.
It’s important to stress that this is a new law, but a proposal for a law reform that has to be
debated in the Philippine parliament, voted upon, approved etc. The timing of last week’s news
seems to be directly related to a) local elections that have just happened (the government
probably wanted its agenda clear of potentially hot issues) and the re-convening of parliament
in July, when the law bill is expected to be debated. Apparently, between now and July the bill
will need to win parliamentary sponsors in order to be heard and the announcement now
should give the government time to lobby for the necessary support.
I read the reports on the tax proposal as they hit the wires Wednesday and thought to myself
something along the lines of, “Ok, 10% is a heavy headline number but in the end it’s just a
proposal, we saw the same kind of thing last year and it died a quiet death, markets not
reacting much, non-issue”. But for whatever reason selling started to kick in 24 hours later and
before anyone could say anything, it was a big, ugly, accelerating downside spike of a move.
Why that should be is up for debate. Initial reports had the new Philippines mining tax as
applicable only to new projects which (as the FT pointed out in its note) things like Masbate
(BTO) and Didipio (OGC) wouldn’t be affected. It seems that new rumours started doing the
rounds on Thursday about how the proposals were for all mining operations in the country, not
just new ones, and that’s the spark that may have started the selling.
Another potential reason for the selling spree is likely to be the general state of the market. You
don’t need me to tell you about the nerves right now, so the circulation of negative sector news
provided the kind of excuse nervous funds need to dump a position in a miner, any miner,
anywhere, shoot first ask questions later. A classic example of the type of vicious circle that this
sentiment can achieve is evident in that OGC/BTO price chart above.
Both on first impressions and then after thought and investigation, the proposal as stands looks
like an inordinately heavy State burden on mining and very much a worst case situation. Raising
taxes on gross metal value would be far more harmful to the sector than on revenues or
bottom line profit, as it immediately squeezes operating margins. Neither does it sit with
comments made by the Philippine Finance Secretary who said on Thursday (from another good
Business Inquirer note) (17):
“We are working with stakeholders to determine the appropriate balance, or ‘sweet
spot,’ that will attract mining investments while ensuring a sustainable fair share of
mining revenue [for the government], with due consideration to social and
environmental aspects.”
Taxing gross metal values is nothing close to a “sweet spot”, neither is it the type of legislation
that would “bring the country into line” with global tax burdens, another phrase that’s been
used a lot in its government these last few days. Add to this the potential for a windfall tax
that’s been added to the law project, a tax that’s been debated and rejected by nearly every
government in the world that’s looked to update its mining laws recently. The only exception is
Ecuador and even there the WFT is now being adapted so that it will only apply for bonanza
metals price situations and then only once the capital costs of any mine are fully recovered.
With all that in place, it’s now time for a risk call on this news: I’m still feeling sheepish
for 1) not keeping up with the flow of news and finding out about this tax development at the
same time as the wider market last week and 2) deciding on Wednesday when the news hit
that the market’s non-reaction was probably correct, the issue was likely baked into the prices
17

of BTO and OGC, it wasn’t something that was going to affect my positions in any way. Wrong
and wrong.
However, after reading up, asking around and getting a better feel for things there’s room to
make tentative call, which is that the chances of a “worst case” situation, where The Philippines
pushes through a 10% gross metals value tax (plus any extra windfall on top) in the way
proposed by the law bill, are not high. The smarter end of the political commentary has been
about this mining tax project being a starting point for debate rather than an end product that
will sail easily through a quick up-and-down vote and that there’s likely to be a great deal of
lobbying before we get to the point where legislators vote on a law. I do not pretend to
understand the inner working of Philippine politics but those who do have suggested that the
scenario proposed by Aquino last week is one that’s designed to get a watered down package
through parliament that may well end up along the lines of the 5% excise tax hike (from 2%)
that was proposed and failed last year. That kind of tax raise is far more palatable than the one
we heard about last week.
As for timing, it seems highly unlikely that any reform becomes law before 2014 and even then
(again, my knowledge of the political machine in The Philippines lets me down and I’m forced
to rely on other opinions) 2014 may be soon.
The bottom line is that the tax laws in The Philippines are going to change, but I doubt whether
the change is going to be as drastic as the letter of the proposals we saw last week. There’s a
lot of water to flow under the bridge before the reforms envisaged get to reality and the
chances of dilution are high. If The Philippine government is serious about finding that “sweet
spot” it will almost certainly have to cede in order to remain an attractive potential location for
future mining exploration and operations, because 10% on gross metal value is simply too
much to bear and takes away the mining company’s precious gross margin potential. Without
that, they’ll go somewhere else in a heartbeat.
Therefore, it’s fair to say that the initial reaction to the news last week (once it had shaken out
of sleeper status) is one of clear overreaction. In some ways that’s understandable if we take
into account the default scenario of very jangly nerves in the mining markets, but it also means
that stocks like BTO were overly hit due to their exposure to The Philippines and over time, the
overreaction should unwind. I’m not just saying that as a fanboy long either, as if there were
enough grounds for real worry and concern about this new move I too would take the
opportunity to sell out, as even by selling BTO and/or OGC at significant losses today I’d be
adding large amounts of welcome cash to the portfolio. The thing here is that given a steady
gold price, BTO/OGC are far more likely to move up than down now after the overreaction of
last week, so why should I sell at the low end?
Now for the potential effects of the tax reform on the valuation models: I’ve taken
several mails from longs in both company (BTO, OGC) shares asking about the type of hit we
can expect from this reform proposal if it passes and becomes law. The way forward here is to
assume a “worst case” of a 10% tax levied against gross metal values as the bill implies, then
apply it to a steady state gold price (which means we can ignore any implications from a
windfall tax, the part of the proposal that’s highly debatable), which for our model and for
argument’s sake we’ll set at the current at-or-about $1,400/oz
If we take as our benchmark the approximate annual production of 200,000oz gold from
Masbate as our benchmark (more useful than the up and coming Didipio, as it’s been operating
at a relatively steady state for a while) and its last stated operating cash cost of ~$850/oz, with
gold at $1,400/oz that gives us a ballpark mine operating margin of $550/oz or $110m/annum.
But if The Philippines takes away 10% from the topline revenue via a 10% gross value tax, our
model’s margin shrinks to $410/oz (10% of $1,400 removed, then op cash costs subtracted),
which means the Masbate mine operating margin drops to 82m/annum, some $28m less than
before. Do the necessary math and that strikes around 12% off the NAV of BTO according to
our model (the same model used in IKN188, IKN194 and IKN208 to place our target price on
18

BTO, see IKN194 for more details).
Therefore we can now adjust the overall target price for BTO in a near-term. Here’s the same-
sum-of-parts table we used in IKN208 to reach our target but with two adjustments made:
1) In the last update, IKN208, we used U$1,500/oz gold as our model and target price
benchmark and as we all now know, even that downside adjustment now looks rather too
optimistic for a reasonable case scenario. We therefore use the $1,400/oz line as our target
model.
2) For the Masbate portion, 12% (well, just a few tenths under in fact) have been shaved off
the NAV-based valuation.
B2Gold (BTO.to): Further adjustments to IKN194/IKN208 for Masbate "worst case"
operations adv. project other+cash Target
Au/oz Libertad Limon Masbate subtotal Otjikoto other total
1300 0.87 0.41 0.79 2.07 0.49 0.45 3.01
1350 0.93 0.44 0.88 2.25 0.53 0.45 3.23
1400 0.98 0.46 0.95 2.39 0.56 0.45 3.40
1450 1.04 0.49 1.02 2.55 0.60 0.45 3.60
1500 1.10 0.51 1.10 2.71 0.64 0.45 3.80
1550 1.15 0.54 1.17 2.86 0.67 0.45 3.98
1600 1.21 0.56 1.27 3.04 0.70 0.45 4.19
source: BTO data, IKN ests/calcs U$1 = CAD$1
The result is that our near-term target for BTO drops from the $3.92 of IKN208 to $3.40 today,
with the difference created by the lower gold price of $1,400/oz and the assumptions of a worst
case tax hit taken at Masbate , its Philippine operation.
Bottom line: BTO looks oversold on the news out of Manila last week and as long as gold
behaves itself (which is a bit of a leap of faith in itself) should eventually regain most if not all
of the lost ground of Thursday and Friday. We’ve dropped our near-term price target to account
for a wrost case situation on this development and to account for gold’s recent move to at-or-
around $1,400 but please note that even under this worst case, BTO new lower target
represents a 44.7% upside to Friday’s close. With the chances of the worst not happening high,
added to the strong delivery record of BTO, this adds up to a good looking bargain created by
sheep-like behaviour of larger money that used the event as an excuse to liquidate at any cost.
As for OceanaGold (OGC.to) (OGC.ax) the general “hold” call is the same as that for BTO, but
I’ll hold off on running the specific numbers until next week.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) thoughts
Three main subjects get mention in this update.
1) The La Libertad roadblock situation went off as expected, RIO first announced a
potential production hit and then when the roadblock was called off, told the market
that everything would be fine.
2) Market action in RIO, particularly at the end of the week, was the worst I’ve seen in the
stock since beginning to follow it two years ago. To my eyes and those of others
consulted, it had all the hallmarks of a fund that’s unwinding a large long position.
3) Fundamentally and operationally nothing has changed at RIO. The share price has
taken a big hit but we fully expect that to reverse once the 2q13 production figures are
announced. In other words, you have about one month to get on this bargain price
19

because as long as gold behaves between now and then (sadly, a necessary caveat)
RIO.to will go higher in July.
Now for details.
1) There were three NRs put out by RIO.to last week, with the first (18) on Monday morning
announcing the departure of COO Victor Gobitz from the company, with a replacement for the
job (with suitably correct CV) already named. We hear that the reason for Gobitz’s departure is
that he’s been headhunted by a major mining company with most of its operations in Peru and
the decision has been totally amicable. Gobitz’s new post hasn’t been announced yet, so no
naming of companies until it is.
Next came the announcement Monday post-bell (19) that the roadblock had affected fuel
supplies at La Arena to the extent where operations would be affected. This came as a slight
surprise to your author, as just a couple of days previous to this word had come that RIO was
good for about a week’s worth of essential supplies, but it seems that management decided to
take the conservative course of action and limit truck fuel in order to be able to guarantee
processing plant fuel for at least two weeks.
Next, pre-open Tuesday, your author sent our the first of the two Flash updates of that day
(see appendix 1, where both flash updates are re-printed) and as things turned out, the call
that the roadblock would soon be over was the correct one. The locals voted to sit down with
government representatives and at 6pm on Tuesday the block was lifted.
We then received official word that all was well at RIO La Arena on Wednesday morning in the
last of the NRs of the week (20). We understand that in the end, no production losses were
suffered at all by the mine as once it was clear that the roadblock would be lifted (the writing
was on the wall midday Tuesday) and the vote was going to be a rubberstamping affair, the
trucks started moving again as normal.
The bottom line to last week’s comings and going is that RIO was an innocent bystander in
another argument, but in the end the right things happened at almost the last minute and no
harm was done at all to its operations.
2) Now for the price action of last week, which turned out to be much uglier than
expected. On Monday I took the opportunity of sub-$3 prices and as per the call in IKN213 last
weekend, opened my separate trading position in RIO and was happy to do so at the prices
offered. When the end of the roadblock was announced all seemed well, but straight afterwards
RIO.to stock came under persistent selling pressure and as mentioned above already, it looks
from all angles as if a large fund position was being unwound. It came as a very unpleasant
surprise to see bids being hit and hit again in
what’s normally a predictable and stable
stock with the type of volume that handles
the day to day roughness, which suggests a
larger position being dumped. The average
volume wasn’t overly high either (around the
three month average over the days) which
suggests there may be more to come, as
others who may want to benefit from the
apparent forced nature of the selling
(potentially a boss’s order, potentially client
liquidation, or any one of a dozen other
reasons) held off from buying. There was
some signs of a pick up in volume Friday and
because of that, I did what I wasn’t planning to do and added quite a bit more to my new near-
term trading position in RIO and averaged it down.
20

Only time will tell whether Friday was the bottom in this selling process and what’s more, the
time that will most likely tell will be next week when RIO opens and acts against or similarly to
the rest of the junior producers market. We have to be clear that more chunky selling into bids,
the same as we saw last week, is a distinct possibility and may push RIO lower then this, even
if gold remains neutral and around its $1400-or-so price point. That was part of my thinking
through Thursday and Friday and it was part of the debate on whether to buy Friday afternoon,
but in the end I decided that the opportunity to buy at prices under $2.60 was too good on
fundamentals to pass over. Which brings us to point number three.
3) Be clear that RIO is having an excellent 2q13. We understand from reliable sources
that April and May saw nearly 38k oz gold place on pad and that already in the first five days of
June, 7k oz were placed. There is an in-house optimistic target of placing 25k oz gold on pad
this month, but even if that number isn’t reached RIO should make 55k oz Au on pad and
return production numbers of at least 50k oz for the quarter (with a highball potential of maybe
55k oz). As noted last week, that’s a big jump from the 43k oz Au production guidance for 2q13
and if all goes well for the rest of the month of June, RIO will offer up a positive surprise to the
market come mid-July’s production announcement. We reiterate that this intel on the pad
ounces placed, though obviously unofficial, is considered reliable by your author. The
production that comes from those placed ounces is estimated by your author compared to
previous ratios between the two sets of figures, but even if the production doesn’t reach the
upper levels of potential in 2q13, the ounces will be on the pads and produced in 3q13.
The bottom line is that although RIO sold off strongly last week, the reasons are not
operations-related and smack strongly of a fund liquidating its position for its own sweet
reasons. This, along with the confirmation that June production has not been affected by the
temporary roadblock in La Libertad (that was totally unconnected to the La Arena mine) and
word that 2q13 for RIO is set to be a production blowout, all add up to a company share price
that’s a screaming bargain at today’s levels. Yes it might go lower if the fund selling returns
next week (or that might have dried up already and things are about to get better quickly) and
if it does, RIO turns into a screamingly-er (dat a word?) buy than it is now. A lot of mining
company stocks got hit last week and I see bargains all around (start with B2Gold, work from
there) but none is priced more cheaply and with the potential for a strong and profitable
rebound in the course of the next month to five weeks than Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) (RIOM).
This, ladies and gentlemen, is the sound of your author banging the table on his single most
preferred junior mining stock, as it’s been unduly hit by a market that will soon be fawning over
the company and its overdelivery against guidance. Buy it, add it but don’t sell it.
Conclusion
IKN214 is done, we close with bullet points:
21

• Buy Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) (RIOM) and as long as gold behaves, sell it for more than
you bought it next month. That simple enough for you?
• Cushioning the portfolio blow of RIO.to, BTO.to and others last week was the new
trade in Bellhaven (BHV.v), which has shot out of the blocks thanks to the drill assay
results that lived up to our best hopes. I’m letting mine run for a while because more
news could easily send this stock higher, but if you’re looking to get on my best guess
is that 10c should be available, especially if traded volumes drop. Personally I’ll just
hold what I have.
• Our other main featured stock this week, IMPACT Silver (IPT.v), has started its 2013
well and looks really cheap from here (yes, I know said that when it was in the 90s
too). IPT is tightly tied to the fate of silver and provides strong upside leverage at
today’s price point (for the metal and for the stock) so if you like the look of silver’s
near-term future and are looking for a vehicle that provides a dosage of safety as well
as upside potential, consider this one. I’m a happy holder here and a win from M&A
activity is by no means out of the question, either.
• It will be interesting to see how the market interprets the Esperanza Resources (EPZ.v)
permit denial news and how many abject idiots decide to class Mexico as “miner
unfriendly” due to this specific decision.
The top long-term picks are Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) and B2Gold (BTO.to). I thank you in
advance for any feedback sent in. Flash updates will be sent promptly if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Otto
22

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalsilver.html
(2) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/duran-reports-aguila-copper-moly-100000968.html
(3) http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/06/06/lme-abbott-idINL5N0EI3A120130606
(4) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/marlin-golds-la-trinidad-project-232800318.html
(5) http://www.oem.com.mx/elsoldecuernavaca/notas/n3011315.htm
(6) https://twitter.com/NISGUA_Guate
(7) http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/complaint-asks-ontario-securities-commission-investigate-tahoe-
resources-after-wiretap-1797349.htm
(8) http://weinrebgroup.com/sustainability-jobs/sustainable-job-director-of-corporate-social-responsibility-tahoe-
resources-inc-reno-nv
(9) http://www.eltiempo.com/colombia/tolima/marcha-en-tolima-contra-la-mineria-a-cielo-abierto_12848584-4
(10) http://www.elnuevodia.com.co/nuevodia/tolima/regional/184571-nueva-renuncia-en-anglogold-ashanti-en-menos-
de-una-semana
(11) http://www.cre.com.ec/noticia/17896/asamblea-nacional-aprueba-informes-de-proyectos-de-tres-leyes/
(12) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bellhaven-drills-217-m-1-110000677.html
(13) http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/06/05/philippines-mining-tax-will-be-tough-test-for-
aquino/?Authorised=false#axzz2VjVQai8O
(14) http://business.inquirer.net/125625/mining-revenue-sharing-proposal-up-for-palace-ok
(15) http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-10/an--phil-mining-tax/4122416
(16) http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=Economy&title=Mining-taxation-to-be-finalized&id=69650
(17) http://business.inquirer.net/125521/with-mine-tax-reform-dof-strives-for-ideal-mix
(18) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/rio-alto-mining-limited-corporate-121156505.html
(19) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/rio-alto-mining-limited-mining-230335996.html
(20) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/rio-alto-reports-resumption-operations-144910551.html
Appendix 1: The two Flash updates on Rio Alto (RIO.to) (RIOM), Tuesday June 4th
Good morning, a few minutes before the open on this Tuesday morning.
I've received plenty of mail regarding our Top Pick Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) (RIOM) in the last 24 hours, so a Flash
update to one and all makes sense.
The main issue is that according to this NR out of RIO.to yesterday...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/rio-alto-mining-limited-mining-230335996.html
...normal production has been halted at La Arena due to a lack of fuel for trucks. This has been caused by the blockade
of the main trunk road in the La Libertad region by "ronderos" (community defence groups) who are protesting against
criminal charges brought against four of their members for acts supposedly committed in 2011.
The decision to suspend due to low fuel stocks is a precautionary measure that allows RIO to be able to fully supply
processing activities for the next 14 days if necessary. It's also pretty typical of the company to disclose quickly and take
a conservative stance against potential problems. We understand that if the roadblock remains in place for more than a
few days (best estimate 3 to 5 days) production forecasts for June and therefore 2q13 may be affected but if the
blockage is cleared in the next couple of days, production figures are unlikely to be affected.
The latest on the roadblock situation is that ronderos and government are in a stand-off: The community groups want
the government to declare official negotiations and if that is done, they'll voluntarily lift the protest and let traffic flow.
Meanwhile the government is using the police force spokespeople to state clearly that if the roadblocks continue until
tomorrow Wednesday, they will be clear by force using squads of police officers.
http://elcomercio.pe/actualidad/1584975/noticia-libertad-ronderos-continuaran-bloqueo-via-hacia-sierra
It's also notable that a national newspaper today Tuesday has got hold of a leaked courtroom document that has details
of the charges brought agains the four ronderos (that include the torture of an 80 year old woman).
http://www.larepublica.pe/04-06-2013/testimonios-prueban-que-ronderos-torturaron-a-detenidos-en-la-libertad
This leakage, clearly from government sources (the newspaper in question is Humala-friendly) suggests the government
is trying to sway public opinion its way in the case and is another indication of a hardline attitude.
If it comes to a showdown between police and protesters it will not make for good headlines and that might happen as
soon as tomorrow. However, there's still time and plenty of room for negotiation between the two sides and if I had to
make a call right now I'd say that a violent conflict, while possible, is not probable. But the most important takeaway is
23

that this roadblock and supply problem at La Arena is likely to be done and over with in the next 48 hours maximum, so
we're not expecting any production problems at RIO.to this month.
The bottom line is that any price weakness in RIO.to today on the back of last night's NR can be taken as a buying
opportunity. The protest may end with or without blood but it's very likely to end this week and things should quickly get
back to normal afterwards. I will be watching this issue carefully and if it isn't cleared up in the next two days you'll get
another update, but for the time being the situation is of zero concern to our investment in RIO.to.
Your author still predicts a much better than expected 2q13 for RIO.to and as laid out in IKN213 last Sunday considers it
an excellent near-term trading opportunity today, aside from its strong long-term investment profile.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
A second flash update on Rio Alto (RIO.to) (RIOM) here, the market has been open for a little over an hour this Tuesday
morning.
News reaches us that the official government resolution to negotiate with the protesters in the La Libertad region has
been published. This means the roadblocks are almost certain to be cleared by tomorrow and without any sort of violent
conflict.
If anyone would like a PDF copy of the scanned resolution from the official gazette, El Peruano, please mail me and I'll
send you by return (that's if you get your kicks from tightly scripted legalese Spanish)
Bottom line: This is good news for RIO.to as it means it is now highly unlikely to suffer any sort of production loss. I
have bought more shares this morning and consider the current window a very good entry point.
Appendix 2: FT report on Philippines mining tax proposal
Philippines: mining tax will be tough test for Aquino
Jun 5, 2013 11:32am
Just a day or two after mid-term elections that tightened Philippine president Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino’s hold on
Congress, his economic managers unveiled a package of potentially contentious proposals to raise mining taxes that
will test the president’s grip on the law-making body when it convenes in July.
The government then began a series of meetings with mining industry representatives on a draft mining tax law that
aims to simplify more than 20 taxes and fees on mining activities by the national and local governments into just a few
payments, while raising the government’s total revenue take that officials say is pitifully low.
Ramon Paje, the environment secretary, said the government wanted to impose a single excise tax rate of 10 per cent
on gross sales of mineral products in lieu of the existing 2 per cent excise tax, 5 per cent royalty tax on minerals in so-
called state reservations, an indigenous people’s share and local business taxes. He estimated that the proposal would
increase several-fold the government’s excise tax collection on mineral products. “If we are getting 1bn pesos now, we
will be getting about 10bn pesos later on,” he said.
The government will also insist on applying the tax on the gross value of each mining company’s output, which will be
computed using monthly trading averages for gold, copper and other precious metals at the London Metals Exchange.
“The formula will be based on prevailing prices rather than actual transaction value to avoid the complications caused by
hedging and other factors,” Paje said.
In addition to the excise tax, the government also wants a share of earnings before income tax above a threshold level
to capture windfall profits when metal prices surge. Local governments will also continue to collect real property taxes
on mining companies but subject to a cap on annual increases in tax assessments.
The government began considering higher mining taxes last year when Aquino (pictured above) issued an executive
order overhauling mining policies in a climate of rising resource nationalism around the world. He froze the processing
of applications for new mining permits, causing mining investments to fall from a peak of $966m in 2010 to $625m in
2011 and just $160m in the first half of 2012, according to the latest government data.
The Philippines is not among the world’s major mineral producing countries but it has caught the attention of a few
global mining companies such as Xstrata, which plans to invest $5.9bn to develop one of the world’s largest untapped
copper deposits on the southern island of Mindanao, and Sumitomo Metals Mining which operates a nickel refinery on
Palawan island and plans to build a second $1bn plant on Mindanao.
Mining industry chiefs who have seen the proposed mining tax package find the proposed tax rate too high and are
preparing to lobby lawmakers to temper the government’s proposals. Aquino’s influence in Congress will be sorely
tested.
& Another Miner in the Philippines Commenting they Believe “A Higher Excise Tax Would Be for New
Projects”… Here are their Key Points Below….
Key Points:
1. The current discussion around finalizing a fiscal regime for mining permits going forward in the Philippines
was expected. Following the signing of the EO79 executive order late last year by the President it was flagged that next
steps was to establish a new fiscal regime for all NEW projects to be permitted for mining in the country. Legislation
needs to go through Congress and with the mid-term elections just completed a few weeks ago, everyone is back to
work to get this going.
2. The EO79 was a positive for mining in the Philippines. It re-affirmed central government control over minerals;
emphasized the importance mining represented to the country and that to appease environmental groups there would
be the establishment of tourism reserves (like national parks in Canada) where mining wouldn’t be permitted; that small-
scale mining would be more closely regulated because of the vast environmental damage it can/is causing; a new fiscal
regime would be established that is more straight forward and more akin to the FTAA structure where the mining
company and Republic of the Philippines share in the benefits of mineral development.
3. There is no change expected to current mining operations already permitted however for future projects
wishing to be permitted for mining, the new fiscal regime would apply. Thus operations like Oceanagold’s Didipio and
24

BTO’s Masbate are not expected to be affected (FTAA) however any future projects that transitions from exploration to
operations outside of the FTAA would be subject to the new regime.
4. The government is engaging with industry on discussion around this new fiscal regime. There has already
been much discussion between the government and industry of which foreign and local mining companies have been a
party to. As often is the case in the Philippines, there is often “chatter” as you say, from politicians in the country with
issues like this but the process is underway it should be clear that this is not an arbitrary decision process. Recent
investment in the industry has slowed because of the delay on renewal of exploration permits and this pending
confirmation of the new fiscal regime so we believe this is being recognized and the government is keen to get things
sorted.
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2012
Closed in 2012 closed close PPS
Soltoro SOL.v jan'12 C$0.87 07-nov-11 C$0.94 8.0% cash moved to BCM.v
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to feb'12 C$0.84 13-oct-10 C$0.98 16.7% trade closed on ELG.v offer
Minefinders MFN feb'12 U$11.68 17-nov-11 U$14.80 26.7% target made, trade closed
Iron Creek IRN.v mar'12 C$0.58 26-sep-10 C$0.31 -46.6% time up on small bad trade
U.S. Silver USA.to apr'12 C$2.18 15-mar-12 C$1.86 -14.7% ST trade no good, cut loss
Augusta Res. AZC.to may'12 C$3.10 29-ene-12 C$2.07 -33.2% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Bellhaven BHV.v may'12 C$0.50 22-sep-10 C$0.28 -44.0% new mgmt not impressive
Zincore Metals ZNC.to may'12 C$0.325 29-jul-11 C$0.17 -47.7% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Soltoro SOL.v may'12 C$0.70 18-mar-11 C$0.41 -41.4% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
U.S. Silver USA.to aug'12 C$1.78 27-jul-12 C$1.36 -23.6% fail ST trade close pre split
Estrella Gold EST.v aug'12 C$0.91 27-mar-11 C$0.14 -84.6% Closed on port realignment
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'12 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.32 397.2% sell call $6.17/ Mar25
Strait Minerals SRD.v oct'12 C$0.125 09-dic-11 C$0.12 -4.0% closing coverage til FY13
Sunward Res SWD.to oct'12 C$1.47 13-mar-11 C$1.21 -17.7% sold, took loss
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'12 U$21.47 09-sep-12 U$17.40 19.0% Short trade closed
Yellowhead Min. YMI.to nov'12 C$1.00 01-abr-12 C$0.63 -37.0% sold, took loss
Primero Mining PPP nov'12 U$7.26 07-oct-12 U$6.73 7.3% Short trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v nov'12 C$3.38 07-nov-11 C$3.72 10.1% Took small profit
Vena Resources VEM.to dec'12 C$0.70 31-may-09 C$0.18 -74.3% Failed trade (caps F)
Galway Res GWY.v dec'12 C$2.19 24-nov-12 C$2.30 5.0% closed good ST arb trade
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2011
Closed in 2011 closed close PPS
Sunward Res SWD.v jan'11 C$1.05 21-nov-10 C$1.63 55.2% target made, trade closed
Serengeti Res SIR.v mar'11 C$0.245 05-dec-10 C$0.285 16.3% sold pre-tgt, ST trade fail
Fronteer Gold FRG apr'11 U$2.37 03-may-09 U$15.24 543.0% buyout, trade closed
Minefinders MFN apr'11 U$9.09 07-nov-10 U$16.89 85.8% target made, trade closed
Metalline Min. MMG may'11 U$1.04 26-jan-11 U$0.89 -14.4% exit, resource disappointed
Peregrine Met PGM.to jul'11 C$0.87 06-mar-11 C$2.60 198.9% buyout offer, closed
Dynasty Metals DMM.to jul'11 C$4.20 03-may-09 C$2.85 -32.1% Sold. Fail. Move on.
Aura Silver AUU.v aug'11 C$0.22 13-oct-10 C$0.16 -36.4% Bad pick. Take loss
U.S. Silver USA.v aug'11 C$0.52 26-jan-11 C$0.71 36.5% closed to make room
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'11 C$2.80 12-may-11 C$4.27 52.5% target made, trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v sep'11 C$3.80 27-may-11 C$4.17 9.7% macro sell call victim
Minefinders MFN sep'11 U$14.70 10-aug-11 U$15.15 3.1% macro sell call victim
Great Panther GPR.to sep'11 C$3.03 22-aug-11 C$2.64 -12.9% macro sell call victim
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'11 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.36 400.9% sold 20%, macro sell call
Focus Ventures FCV.v nov'11 C$0.40 20-apr-10 C$0.20 -50.0% cut losses, bad trade
Regulus Res. REG.v dec'11 C$1.17 14-aug-11 C$0.52 -55.6% cut on news of poor 43-101
2009 and 2010 closed positions in appendices below
25

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2010
Closed in 2010 closed close PPS
B2Gold Corp BTO.to Jan'10 C$0.88 08-nov-09 C$1.49 68.2% target made, trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v Jan'10 C$0.18 23-aug-09 C$0.40 122.2% target made, trade closed
MAG Silver MVG mar'10 U$5.60 23-nov-09 U$7.28 30.0% closed in pdac week
Riverside Res RRI.v mar'10 C$0.435 20-sep-09 C$0.60 37.9% closed in pdac week
Amarillo Gold AGC.v mar'10 C$0.81 31-may-09 C$0.70 -13.6% closed in pdac week
B2Gold Corp BTO.to apr'10 C$1.24 18-feb-10 C$1.50 21.0% target made, trade closed
Lumina Copper LCC.v apr'10 C$0.84 14-jun-09 C$1.55 51.2% total position now sold
Troy Resources TRY.to may'10 C$1.10 03-may-09 C$2.25 104.5% sold on negative results
AuEx Ventures XAU.to may'10 C$2.51 24-may-09 C$3.38 34.7% trade closed
Nevada Copper NCU.to jun'10 C$3.27 14-mar-10 C$2.03 -37.9% need to lower Cu exposure
Carpathian Gold CPN.to jun'10 C$0.39 14-mar-10 C$0.35 -10.3% too exposed to cap raising
Amerix PM Corp APM.v jun'10 C$0.065 08-nov-09 C$0.05 -23.1% victim of macro bear
Antares Minerals ANM.v jun'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$2.10 47.9% sold half
Vena Resources VEM.to jun'10 C$0.37 31-may-09 C$0.23 -37.8% sold half
Minera Andes MAI.to sep'10 C$0.75 28-jul-10 C$0.95 26.7% ST trade closed
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to sep'10 C$0.52 01-aug-10 C$0.75 44.2% target made, trade closed
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'10 C$1.45 25-may-10 C$2.01 34.5% target made, trade closed
Blue Sky Uran BSK.v oct'10 C$0.41 19-may-10 C$0.22 -46.3% v small v bad trade closed
Dia Bras Expl DIB.v oct'10 C$0.14 30-aug-09 C$0.35 150.0% target made, trade closed
S. Amer. Silver SAC.to nov'10 C$1.38 24-oct-10 C$1.60 -15.9% loss on short, small fail
Ventana Gold VEN.to nov'10 C$7.92 27-jun-10 C$13.51 70.6% trade closed on buyout
Lumina Copper LCC.v nov'10 C$1.42 11-aug-10 C$3.65 157.0% trade closed
Antares Minerals ANM.v dec'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$8.40 491.5% trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.v dec'10 C$0.69 23-mar-10 C$2.16 213.0% trade closed
Coro Mining COP.to dec'10 C$0.585 03-oct-10 C$1.24 112.0% target made, trade closed
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2009
Closed positions closed closing PPS
Cardero Res CDY/CDU.to May'09 U$1.20 03-May-09 U$0.87 -27.5% sold on negative news
Eastmain Res. ER.to May'09 C$1.04 06-May-09 C$1.315 26.4% trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v May'09 C$0.165 03-May-09 C$0.235 42.4% trade closed
Latin Amer Min. LAT.v May'09 C$0.12 03-May-09 C$0.158 29.2% trade closed
Aquiline Res. AQI.to July'09 C$2.03 16-Jun-09 C$1.68 -17.2% took loss, bad timing
Chariot Resources CHD.to Aug'09 C$0.20 12-Jul-09 C$0.415 107.5% trade closed
Castle Gold CSG.v Sep'09 C$0.64 02-Aug-09 C$0.60 -6.3% ST trade didn't work out
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to Sep'09 C$2.30 12-May-09 C$4.50 95.7% profit taken
Los Andes Copper LA.v Sep'09 C$0.09 21-Jun-09 C$0.09 0% trade closed
Pediment Gold PEZ.to Oct'09 C$0.80 09-Aug-09 C$1.00 25.0% trade closed
Minera Andes MAI.to Oct'09 C$0.68 03-May-09 C$0.71 4.4% too much bad news
Dynasty Metals DMM.to Nov'09 C$4.18 03-May-09 C$6.01 43.8% half sold
Rusoro Mining RML.v Nov'09 C$0.55 03-May-09 C$0.57 3.6% underperformed
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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