IKN #213Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 213, June 2nd 2013
Contents
This Week: Buying two stocks next week, Doug Kass buys GLD.
Fundamental Analysis: Adding Rio Alto (RIO.to) (RIOM), buying Bellhaven Copper & Gold
(BHV.v), notes on last week’s Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) purchase.
Stocks to Follow: Overview, Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to), Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v),
B2Gold (BTO.to), Focus Ventures (FCV.v), Minera IRL (IRL.to) (MIRL.L), Gold Resource Corp
(GORO), Duran Ventures (DRV.v), Plata Latina (PLA.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Candente (DNT.to), Oracle Mining (OMN.to), Strait Minerals
(SRD.v).
The Lottery Ticket Basket: Overview, Marlin Gold (MLN.v), Glass Earth (GEL.v).
Regional Politics: Chile: More evidence of rising capex, Peru: La Libertad roadblock,
Argentina: Santa Cruz update, Ecuador: Mining law reform progress and Kinross news.
Market Watching: Peru, Sulliden (SUE.to) and political risk misconceptions.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
"Do not cry havoc when you should but hunt with modest warrant"
Menenius Agrippa
Coriolanus, Act 3, Sc1, L275
Buying two stocks this week
Back when toga parties weren’t confined to frat houses, Senator Menenius Agrippa was trying his
hardest to persuade his friend Coriolanus not to seek hot-headed vengeance on political
enemies (he failed, Coriolanus had his way and the star of the play was eventually assassinated
due to his bad decision...hey, what do you expect from a tragedy anyway?). Menenius’s
position was always that of diplomacy and prior thought before measured action but screw the
Shakespeare, time to talk stock trading.
There’s still a lot of risk out there in the junior mining market and I’m still nervous about the
price of gold. No matter how good any individual trade in any mining equity might look, another
slump in gold sweeps all bets off the table and would at best leave any new money deployed
with the Pyrrhic victory of having been wrong for the right reasons. To that end, I’m still 100%
uninterested in my preferred, longer-term investment timescale that’s based more on calm and
rational fundamental analysis. However, the prospect more near-term trades does interest me
today so today we add to the recent trend and next week your author will be that much longer
the market.
• Earlier in May I opened a small long trade on the small Duran Ventures (DRV.v)
• Last week I closed a short (TAHO) which added more net long exposure to the portfolio
• Via the Flash update Thursday (see appendix 1) opened a near-term long trade on Bear
Creek Mining (BCM.v).
1

Today there are two more trades being bolted on and more cash put to work. They are:
• Buying Bellhaven Copper & Gold (BHV.v). The reasons for the trade and the
specific and strict timeframe are laid out in ‘Fundamentals...” below.
• Adding to Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to). This will be a near-term position that’s traded
around the large core position held in out Top Pick stock. It will be carried separately to
the main position due to its specific set-up and objectives. Again, details in
‘Fundamentals...” below.
It needs to be stressed (and it’s a message that will get boring repetitions below, too) that the
trades being put in place are smaller in scale and less ambitious in scope than the preferred
type of medium/long term trade (12 months timescale typical) that your author prefers. I’m still
nervous about this market and if gold decides to suddenly drop again, it wouldn’t take much for
me to dump these traders, take the loss and move on. These near-term trades are more about
playing the market and using a level-headed approach to risk/reward that may, if fortune
favours, show a reasonable cash profit in a shorter than normal time period. But they’re not set
up as the type of trade from which retirement-funding profits will ever be achieved.
Doug Kass buys GLD
For me. the most significant gold market news last week came in this report (1), in which Doug
Kass of Seabreeze announced that he’d gone long GLD last Wednesday morning. I encourage
you to read his note and get the full story, but here are the reasons he cites for his decision to
build a long position in gold:
1) Expectations for the price of gold are now low and diminished.
2) A most unpopular asset class provides a contrarian's appeal.
3) Last month's gold selloff looks like a selling price and volume climax.
4) Negative sentiment extreme.
5) The growing consensus view of an acceleration in the rate of global economic
growth may be too optimistic.
6) The U.S. dollar's recent strength might peter out.
7) More currency debasing lies ahead.
8) Inflation is gold's friend
9) Tail risks remain
10) Demand for physical gold is rising
Now I don’t know about you, but reading that list the one word that comes to mind is
“contrarian”. It really sums up at least the first five points Kass makes and although he pays lip-
service to tried and trusted goldbug themes (inflation, fiat printing presses, physical gold
demand, lahlahlah) his long thesis looks tightly tied to the fact that Kass is a contrarian who’s
making a contrarian’s call. This isn’t a goldbug with deeply held ideological convictions
speaking, this is a man famous for making money in the stock market (usually using short
positions) who really likes to zig when others zag. And that’s what I most like about Kass’s call;
it’s coming from a non-believer who sees gold as a simple medium for a potentially profit-
making trade. There’s no religion involved, no deep philosophy, no guns, no Austrianisms, no
preppers, nothing but a bit of old fashioned capitalist greed from a guy that deserves the
moniker market legend far more than any of the permafool goldbugs that drown out more
reasoned voices on gold.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Adding Rio Alto (RIO.to) (RIOM), buying Bellhaven Copper & Gold (BHV.v), notes on
last week’s Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) purchase
2

Your author’s plan is to add two new trades to the ‘Stocks to Follow’ list next week, adding to
the new long in Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) as per last Thursday morning’s Flash update (see
appendix 1). Today’s fundies section therefore is dedicated to these three new positions,
though it should be pointed out that as all three are set out as near-term trades rather than
longer term investments, they’re more about the present day and less about the longer-term
prospects of the companies being used as vehicles. Here goes with details on the three trades
Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to)
The first thing to say here is that we already have a large and long-term position in our Top
Pick Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) (RIOM) and we’ve picked over the longer-term prospects of this
story one more than many occasions. Today’s envisaged trade in RIO.to is different to the long
already in place and works like this:
• Your author is making a smaller, separate near-term trade in RIO.to that will be for all
intents and purposes separate from the larger, long-term investment already in place
• As from next week, the new trade will be run on a separate line item on the ‘stocks to
Follow’ list.
• The plan is to hold for perhaps six weeks, or two months maximum, then sell.
• This is all about near-term company specific newsflow expected from the stock. We’re
less interested in the underlying fundamentals.
• The target price is not the same as our larger position.
Now for details and the factors behind the call:
1) Improvement in the gold macro situation. This is the one that causes most nerves and
basically why I’m still far more interested in near-term trades rather than longer-term sector
investment, but there has been enough modest improvement with the way gold (and its
friends) has traded in the past couple of weeks, with a baseline semingly being put in at-or-
around $1,400/oz, to warrant mention.
2) RIO has lagged the field recently. Compared to other sector-leaders RIO.to hasn’t done
quite as well in the last couple of weeks, it took a lot of effort for the stock to rise above and
then stay above $3 and the overall impression is of a stock lagging its peers. I’m not worried
about any quality issues at RIO (far from it) after seeing firsthand how things are going ta La
Arena recently, therefore consider this minor lag as part of the opportunity that has presented
itself.
Specifically, RIO.to underperforming in the very near past may be connected to the protests in
its immediate vicinity in La Libertad, Peru last week. Please see ‘Regional Politics’ for more on
this, though I’d add here that anyone thinking RIO is the real reason for the roadblocks in La
Libertad last week (and probably this week coming) needs their head examined and/or to
change news sources rapidly.
3) The recent depreciation seen in the Peruvian Nuevo Sol (PEN) versus the US Dollar
(USD) means that operating costs in dollar terms have dropped significantly in recent weeks
(here’s a smaller version of the chart featured last week and as you can see, even since last
weekend the drop has moved further with the PEN
at ~U$2.715. This is around 7.5% higher than the
beginning of 2013 and around 5% better than the
end of 1q13, which means we can expect
significantly lower costs in dollar terms for many
of the cost input items at La Arena (and the
administrative offices). Overall, it’s fair to assume
a 3% cost reduction in pure forex terms for this
quarter, which is somewhat unexpected (after
seeing the Peruvian Sol do nothing but appreciate
over the last couple of years) but surely welcomed
3

by the beancounters at RIO.to and many other LatAm-exposed mining companies (as the same
can be said for companies working in the rest of Peru as well as Chile, Colombia, Brazil and
other)
The last reason is the most important one of the lot, the most company-specific. The main
reason behind today’s call is that according to well-placed sources RIO is having a strong 2q13
so far and we can fully expect the company to beat guidance. As per the company 2013
guidance published in late February (2) RIO is looking for 43,605 oz gold poured this quarter.
RIO.to: 2103 quarterly production guidance vs
result
70000
guidance
60000
result
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1q13 2q13 3q13 4q13
source: RIO data, IKN ests for 2q13
Signs from 1q13 were good that RIO was indeed underpromising and would allow RIO to over-
deliver as the year went on. As 1q13 beat guidance handily (3) by delivering 36,255oz
(+1739oz ore tonnes placed on pad and +665oz in better than expected grade) the signs were
already there but from what we hear, April was a good month at the mine and May was very
good. It’s more difficult to assume actual produced ounces at this stage, but ounces placed on
pad is easier stuff and as the La Arena mine (thanks to its well run operation and ore that gives
up its content easily, cheaply and quickly) has been operating smoothly and fairly predictably,
the relationship between placed ounces and produced ounces has always been fairly tight.
Here’s a chart that shows the monthly numbers for that and adds in April and May 2013
estimates as well:
Rio Alto (RIO.to): Ounces placed on pad versus ounces sold
monthly, Jan 2012 to date
24000
22000
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
4
21naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 31naj bef ram *rpa *yam
oz Au
oz Au placed on pad
oz Au sold
source: MEM data/IKN ests
As suggested above, “ounces placed” for April and May should be pretty close. The “ounces
sold” number is derived from that from the average loss (just over 5%) seen between the two
datasets in previous reported months (and if you’re wondering, monthly production numbers
are reported to and then published by Peru’s Ministry of Energy and Mining, it’s just a case of
knowing where to look).
What we see is an April which was always expected to perform better than the first three
months of 2013, but beat even those higher guidances. Meanwhile, very fresh numbers indicate

that May wasn’t just good but excellent, with around 21,500oz gold placed on pad. We
obviously don’t have a clue about the numbers for June (as we’ve only just started that month)
but assuming a decent-without-standout-standout result of around 18k oz for the current
month, this would put RIO’s 2q13 production quarter at perhaps 53,700 oz and over 10,000 oz
more than guidance. It would also put RIO just under 12,000 oz ahead of schedule for the year
and merely hitting guidance for 3q13 and 4q13 would mean it delivered more than the upper
end 210,000 oz gold guidance for the full year.
And this, ladies and gentlemen, is why we’re adding to our RIO this week. The combo of a
company with production going much better than expected right now, a recent
underperformance in share price that looks ripe for the catch-up, potentially overstated political
risk from a protest that has nothing to do with RIO and looks to be finishing soon and a move
in the USD/PEN forex pair that will likely improve operating costs at RIO.to. Therefore, the
trade will be:
• Add a near-term trade package of RIO.to to the portfolio next week
• Track its performance via a separate line item in the ‘Stocks to Follow’ list
• Wait until 2q13 production numbers are released, likely around mid-July.
• Sell the near-term trade shares either then or a maximum of two weeks later (to allow
suitable market reaction) without touching the already in-place longer-term shares.
Therefore this trade has a strict time limit of end July.
• The end
What could possibly go wrong? ☺
Well the answer to that is a lot and as this is not a riskless trade (oh look, I bold-typed and
underlined that too, have a guess as to why) you need to go in with eyes wide open. First and
foremost, this trade will depend on the movements in the price of gold over the next six weeks
or two months and if gold drops, RIO.to is very likely to drop with it no matter how well or not
the company is doing at its mine. Being wrong for the right reasons is scant consolation if
there’s a hole left in your portfolio account once the trade is completed, so be clear that RIO
and all its peers are still highly dependent on the vagaries of their underlying metal(s). Apart
from that, we may see a worse than expected June form RIO which cancels out the good things
from April and May once the quarterly totals are done. Another potential hitch is that the
current roadblocks in La Libertad go on for longer than expected (say another week) and start
to actively affect production at La Arena. Overall I’m prepared to take those risks and consider
the deck is stacked in favour this time, but I’m aware that things could go wrong with this near-
term timescale that leaves less room for flexibility.
5

Buying Bellhaven Copper & Gold (BHV.v)
The trade here is smaller, riskier and unlikely to suit most people’s palates. However it’s one
that I’m going to make and so it gets space here. Word is that on Thursday Resource Venture
Partners, the fund run by BHV’s central figure Paul Zweng, added 1.5m shares of BHV to its
pile. That’s a chunky purchase that averages down the fund’s overall price point for BHV
considerably (the fund now has around 10.6m shares of BHV according to IKN educated
guesstimates, which is around 7.7% of its current ~137m shares out) and a more-than
interesting move by the man in Zweng that knows the La Mina project better than just about
anyone out there.
It also comes at a time just after the change at the top at BHV (goodbye ex-CEO Highsmith,
who basically did nothing bar watching the share price drop).
The Resource Venture Partners purchase also comes at a time when we can start looking to the
wires for the first results from the new drilling program on the land optioned from Anglogold
recently.
Those are the company specific reasons behind the decision to buy a small and near-term
position in BHV, but there are other thoughts to add to the mix before we go any further. Firstly
there was this (4), the NR out of Seafield Resources (SFF.v) on Tuesday. On one level it was
fairly ignorable news because SFF has shown the world on more than several occasions that it
loves issuing headline-moving news releases more than serious news releases, but the
interesting bit is how the headline did indeed manage to move the stock from a thinly traded
4.5c to a volume-injected 7c. That’s the type of combo that would go down well enough at
other beaten-to-near-death junior explorecos in Colombia, which very much includes BHV, a
near-neighbour of SFF.
Secondly this, another Colombian exploreco play that moved like crazy on renewed volume
interest via recent drill results. This time it was Solvista (SVV.v), which went from 25c to 55c on
its May 21st NR (5) that reported 456m of 1.46 g/t AuEq amongst other chunks of crunchy
goodness, again suggesting that these Colombia gold plays have been beaten down too far and
the bold trader can find value by getting in on next right one, as long as decent drill numbers
are forthcoming.
This brings us back to BHV and thanks to a complete lack of backlog at the assay labs these
days it’s a fair guess that assay results the first hole at La Garrucha (collared on May 16th (6))
should be with us at some point this month. I know the BHV has always been keen on the
prospects of La Garrucha and the signal of Zweng adding to the fund pile is likely significant. In
other words and to cut to the chase, if you get a feeling of ducks in line from that little lot then
you’re not the only one.
The bottom line here is that your author has decided to take a chance and buy some BHV, but
be clear that this one isn’t the same make-up as the trade proposed in RIO.to above because
it’s a higher risk trade, period. That means the rewards are potentially higher (which makes it
worth my while) but this is a sub-10c pennystock with a poor corporate track record of delivery
and a lack of cash at bank. It will also be a small trade in absolute cash terms and this time
next week will be in the ‘Smaller/Risker’ sub-section of the Stocks to Follow list below in order
to reflect that (and yes, I’m aware of what I said about Duran Ventures when it was added
recently, but with this BHV trade I really want to underscore the difference in attitude between
it and the RIO trade). This trade is a drill hole speculation, no more no less, and we’re
assuming BHV hits good holes at La Garrucha and that the market responds in the same way as
it did with SVV.v and SFF.v by bringing a decent percentage rebound the way of a severely
beaten stock. This of course aside from the same risks in the wider gold market that we’re
considering for the RIO.to trade, as they apply in equal measure here. As for the terms of the
trade
• Your author buys next week. The current 6.5c would be a nice spot, but 7c would be ok
6

as well and at a pinch I’d enter at 7.5c. Anything higher than that and I pass, as this
needs to be a cheap entry to maximize chances of a near-term win.
• We wait for assay results from the first hole at La Garrucha, which should be along at
some point in June.
• Depending on the reaction to that news, we hold through a while longer or sell there
and then. There are more holes in the program for La Garrucha (hole two is already
underway) so that gives a bit of flexibility on timing. However...
• The trade will close end July at the very latest. I’d prefer to close it in this month of
June, but as there is a little bit of wriggle room on this strategy I’ll give myself one
more month if needed. However, end July is absolute, no-quibble maximum as this is a
near-term trade (assuming of course a good entry point is found and it opens).
I’ll leave you with the horror story that is the BHV 12 month share price chart, which may help
you decide that this risk-trade is not for you, but if you like the idea of this bottom fishing
target, don’t pay up and make sure value is on your side at the entry.
Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v): More on Thursday’s buy call
In the Flash update Thursday morning (see appendix 1) where I wrote that we’d take a closer
look at the BCM.v fundies and the Corani project too, so that’s what you’re getting here.
BCM.v: Assets Breakdown per qtr
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
First thing is to update on the company financials charts, as last week saw BCM file its 1q13
results. There really isn’t that much in the way of surprises here and the analysis we ran in
IKN205 on BCM (if you want a copy you know the address) covers most bases. The only thing
that really caught my attention was the $61.2m cash treasury position, which was $3m higher
7
80q4 90q1 90q2 90q3 90q4 01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 tse31q2
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
BCM.v: Working Capital per qtr
140
fixed
other current 120
cash
100
80
60
40
20
0
80q4 90q1 90q2 90q3 90q4 01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 tse31q2
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

than your author’s forecast of $58m at bank and shows a company that’s cut right back on its
burn rate during this period when permitting the Corani project is a be-all and end-all of efforts.
As company liabilities ($1.5m ST, $1.5m LT) continue at the same negligible rates we’ve seen
since the beginning of 2011, it suggests that our previous end-June forecast of $53m in cash
and $57m in working capital is probably
underestimating now and I now add $2m to
BCM.v: Expenses Breakdown
each of those numbers. In any case, BCM has 12
zero liquidity worries.
10
8 The reason for the better than expected cash
position can be seen in this next chart. 6
Exploration expenses are down to levels we
4
saw in 1q11 and as we expect the same story
2
in 2q13, the estimates there are now much
less than they were in IKN205. The other 0
‘usual suspects’ charts don’t have much to
offer that’s news from the update two months
ago, so we’ll leave things there rather than
bore you to death with the shares out
(unchanged), net loss (as expected), liabilities (nothing much) etc etc. In summary, BCM has
tightened its collective belt and is now clearly waiting on the government of Peru to award its
EIA before it starts any sort of serious spending again.
We now turn our attention to the reason to like BCM today, its world class Corani project in
Puno region, Peru.
Stress testing Corani: The last time we looked at the numbers that Corani might offer up
once in operation, we plugged in silver numbers of between $25 and $40 per ounce. Today
things are rather different so our task is to consider the project under a lower silver price deck
and with potentially higher costs. The main changes to our model coming your way right now,
then come the tables spat out by the XLS and then the price target.
• Capex now at $800m. That’s $100m up on the previous estimate and $250m higher
than the official BCM guidance right now. However, later this year we’re due an
updated Feas from the company that’s widely expected to raise the capex ticket, so by
adding $100m now (it’s ciggypack stuff) we remain on the conservative side of the
argument.
• We pay for that capex with a $600m loan, 58m extra shares and the current cash
treasury. This means our model changes with the addition of 50m shares from our last
effort and puts the share count at 150m S/O. Debt servicing ($60m/annum) stays the
same as before. It’s ballpark stuff and we again emphasize that the BCM exit strategy is
almost certainly to sell Corani to the highest bidder (and as an aside I still say Pan
American Silver (PAA.to) (PAAS) is the obvious best fit)
• We raise opex estimates from $10/t moved to $12/t. We were assuming a conservative
number before, we’re now going for a highly conservative number to fully stress test
this mine and its potential. Today’s analysis isn’t about nailing down a share price
target, it’s more about seeing whether Cornai works even under mediocre market
conditions.
• Four silver prices of $20/oz, $23/oz, $25/oz and $30/oz. We set our default at $23 but
$20/oz isn’t out of the question these days so that’s where the baseline goes. Any lower
and we’d be forced to throw in the towel on the sector, not just this stock, so no $15
etc predictions are thrown at you..
• The other variables remain the same. We run a 22,500tpd operation at BCM, use the
8
90q1 90q2 90q3 90q4 01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4 31q1 tse31q2
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
other exp.
prof fees
wages & mgmt salaries
share based compensation
exploration costs

mineral grades and projected recoveries for silver, lead and zinc, we assume a flat
$0.90/lb average price for the two base credit metals. Depreciation is guesstimated at
$25m/year, G&A, tax, etc etc all stuck in at reasonable levels.
Here’s how things turn out:
BCM.v at Corani: Income items for model year at differing gold prices
At 22.5Ktpd thruput $20/oz Ag $23/oz Ag $25/oz Au $430/oz Au
Sales 326.2 354.0 372.5 418.8
Cash COGS 98.6 98.6 98.6 98.6
Depreciation 25 25 25 25
SGA 15 15 15 15
Op income 171.3 197.7 215.3 259.3
Interest 60 60 60 60
Workers Part. 8.9 11.0 12.4 15.9
Tax at 30% 30.7 38.0 42.9 55.0
Net income 71.7 88.7 100.0 128.4
Shares out 150 150 150 150
EPS 0.48 0.59 0.67 0.86
Sust Capex -10 -10 -10 -10
FCF/sh 0.58 0.69 0.77 0.96
Sources: BCM/IKN data, IKN ests
In other words, we get a mine paid for and debt serviced and even when using a much higher
than expected opex cost at $23/oz silver Corani returns BCM a post-tax EPS 59c per year over a
20 year life of mine. That suggests the current share price is covered by a 4X P/E ratio and
looks cheap. For what it’s worth, here’s a target box that assumes a 6X PE at $23/z silver:
BCM: Sales and earnings Target price & valuation data
Ag U$/oz $20 $23 $25 $30 using four different silver prices
Sales (C$m) 326 354 372 419 12-month target $3.55 (on 6x annual EPS using
Upside to target 63% silver at $23/oz)
EPS 0.48 0.59 0.67 0.86 Mkt cap (C$m) $201 Enterprise value $144
Cash flow 0.64 0.76 0.83 1.02 P/sales ($20) 0.57 EV/sales ($20) 0.41
P/E ($20) 4.6 EV/EBITDA ($20) 0.7
P/E ($23) 3.7 EV/EBITDA ($23) 0.6
P/E ($25) 3.3 EV/EBITDA ($25) 0.6
This gives a 63% upside as at Friday’s close, which isn’t some sort of hard and fast target but
does go a long way to underscore that even under our highly conservative, “stress test” type of
model BCM looks pretty decent fundamental value at today’s share price.
The bottom line: This new trade on BCM is less about its fundamentals and more about market
conditions. I like the new low entry price we were offered last week and the news out of Peru
about new easier permitting for big civil works projects. That news managed to positively affect
other stocks more than BCM, but the strong community relations position enjoyed by BCM at
Corani (see previous analyses for more on that, e.g. IKN204, IKN205) puts it in a better
position than most anyway and we fully expect Corani to gets its EIA this year. Finally and as
mentioned in the Flash update last week, the PM markets do look better and slightly less prone
to another dumpage, which gives reason to deploy a few shekels now. Once again, I’m
nowhere near confident about the near-term or medium future of gold (and in this case silver)
so bets are near-term in nature and not big trades, but the risk/reward balance looks pretty
good here and so it’s time to put a bit of money where the proverbial mouth is. Today we’ve
shown that the robust Corani project can indeed (under our conservative and ballpark estimates
9

at least) stand up to a world of lower silver prices and higher costs and still return a profit to
any eventual operator. We wouldn’t want Ag to go much lower, but even at $20 it’s a profitable
mine. The combination of a good entry point and a solid, world class project means that I’m
now long again BCM. The last trade didn’t work out but at least we bailed before the worst of
the drop. Now for a second bite at the cherry and with a little fortune, a better outcome.
Stocks to Follow
We started the week with 12 open positions and finished with 12 open positions, as Tahoe
Resources short (TAHO) was covered and the new near-term long trade in Bear Creek Mining
(BCM.v) was opened. Of the 12 that we have now, nine went up during the week (not listing
them all), one was unchanged (AQM.v) and two lost ground (GORO short, FCV.v). In other
words a much better week for the list and for juniors in general, driven by the decent action in
gold and its friends. The best of the list’s percentage moves were seen in Plata Latina (PLA.v up
18.8%), Minera IRL (IRL.to up 18.6%), Duran Ventures (DRV.v up 14.3%), B2Gold (BTO.to up
13.6%), while the losers both double figure percentage status (FCV.v down 12.5%, GORO
down 10.1%). I doubt it’ll come as much surprise, but your author and his back pocket enjoyed
the move in BTO.to more than any other.
There are currently 12 stocks on the open list, three less than our self-imposed maximum (this
time next week it’ll be back up to 14, though). Three of our positions are in the green, nine are
in the red.
10

Company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
Top Picks
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to hold C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.08 33.9% $6.29 tgt, added Apr13
B2Gold BTO.to buy C$3.07 28-nov-12 C$2.61 -15.0% $5.70 tgt added Apr '13
Recommends
Minera IRL IRL.to spec buy C$0.73 22-jul-12 C$0.32 -56.2% $1.56 tg, added, new avg
OceanaGold OGC.to buy C$3.03 16-sep-12 C$1.91 -37.0% $5.34 tgt growth prod
Lara Expl. LRA.v hold C$1.15 08-apr-12 C$1.14 -0.9% solid biz model, LT hold
IMPACT Silver IPT.v spec buy C$1.14 13-jan-13 C$0.57 -50.0% $1.85 tgt Ag spec play
Gold Res Corp GORO short U$10.00 03-may-13 U$9.60 4.0% tgt $7.50
Duran Ventures DRV.v spec buy C$0.045 10-may-13 C$0.04 -11.1% new position, ST trade
Bear Creek BCM.v buy C$2.06 30-may-13 C$2.18 5.8% near-term, 2nd trade in '13
Smaller/Riskier
AQM Copper AQM.v hold C$0.31 16-oct-11 C$0.035 -88.7% holding thru for my sins
Focus Ventures FCV.v spec buy C$0.175 01-jul-12 C$0.14 -20.0% revised tgt 25c
Plata Latina PLA.v selling C$0.79 10-apr-12 C$0.19 -75.9% trying to sell
Closed in 2013 closed close price
USA Graphite USGT feb'13 U$0.93 08-jan-13 U$0.17 81.7% short tgt made/trade closed
Lachlan Star LSA.to feb'13 C$1.50 30-sep-12 C$0.95 -36.7% sold to reduce port risk
United Silver USC.to mar'13 C$0.21 28-oct-12 C$0.095 -54.8% small Ag sector trade, failed
Aurcana Corp AUN.v apr'13 C$1.07 11-nov-12 C$0.55 -48.6% closed on poor YE results
Gold Res Corp GORO apr'13 U$14.11 25-jan-13 U$9.38 33.5% short tgt made/trade closed
Marlin Gold MLN.v apr'13 C$0.075 10-feb-13 C$0.065 -13.3% closing this week (def)
Bear Creek BCM.v may'13 C$2.58 01-apr-13 C$2.40 -7.0% near-term, time ran out
Lupaka Gold LPK.to may'13 C$1.12 23-oct-11 C$0.32 -71.4% towel thrown in
Tahoe Resources TAHO may'13 U$18.62 08-apr-13 U$14.70 21.1% took profit on ST short
2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 closed positions in appendices below
Now for some notes on a selection of the above stocks.
Tahoe Resources (TAHO): Short covered. A bit of seller’s regret came right on the heels of
this taken profit, because TAHO/THO.to was notably weak on Thursday and Friday when all
around were rebounding (it finished the week at U$14.53, I’d covered at U$1.470 earlier). It
does look as though larger money (or at least larger money than mine) is trying to exit this one
quietly and I have that sinking feeling of having covered too early. Let’s see how this one goes,
because the personal position is merely covered and is easy enough to run out again. It’ll do
nicely if more short position is required for the overall portfolio, or if the political situation in
Guat starts to turn against the company.
Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v): Position opened. Happy with this one, as I rook a little $2.10
to mark the trade Thursday and filled all I wanted on Friday at the “$2-or-thereabouts” that I
really wanted, ending with a $2.06 average entry point which subsequently looked very cool
next to the late Friday pop. See above for more.
However, there is this worth mentioning on the political risk front, news (7) that BCM has
signed another agreement with locals, this time with the national Mining Ministry as an official
third party, to work with local farmers to improve local livestock (mainly llamas and alpacas) via
breeding, improved foodstuffs and better medication programs. Once again we see the fruits of
BCM’s strong community relations and locals happy with the presence of the mine.
B2Gold (BTO.to): I will not beat about the bush, BTO’s action was a thing of great beauty last
week. The big launch Thursday morning, on the back of the pop in gold that morning, left a
gap in the chart over which you TA fans may do a little handwringing, but that’s your problem
and not mine. It came on pre-pop volume Wednesday volume and the volume stuck around
Thursday and Friday, nothing short of vital in this sector leading stock.
11

BTO this week will be a reflection of the gold market (though likely leveraged), so if you want
very-near-term clues, look to the gold spot market rather than the company.
Focus Ventures (FCV.v): Called this one right, as least for one week. FCV’s volume dried up
and the small amount it did saw the price drop 2c on Friday, which all points to a company that
needs more solid news from its projects before things really start to move. I’m still on the
sidelines with the addition, I’m still looking to add at 11c or 12 at a pinch, just like last week.
These things aren’t impossible to trade, they just need small moeny targets and patience in
large dollops.
Minera IRL (IRL.to): Better, much better. There’s still a long long way to go before the deep
damage to this position is healed and the reality is that
at some point I’ll likely have to add more and average
down in order to have a decent shot at an overall
profit (which means, yep, risking more cash on this
name), but the rebound we saw last week was very
welcome and importantly (can’t be underemphasized)
came on much better traded volumes in both Canada
(nearly 500k IRL.to traded in four days, including 274k
on Wednesday and London (over 900k MIRL.L trade in
four days, including 421k on Thursday). This is what’s
supposed to happen!
So better things, but a lot of ground to make up yet.
We await news from the Don Nicolas gig, but every week that passes adds more doubt to that
deal, it has to be said.
Gold Resource Corp (GORO): I’m perfectly relaxed about losing 10% week-over-week in this
one, as its hedge factor was directly in play and any loss in GORO was easily outweighed by
gains in other junior places. The next company-specific news from GORO is likely to be its 2q13
production numbers mid-July, but the thing that I think will make this one sink is either a) its
3q13 financials that’ll come in August or b) news of Hochschild (HOC.L) bailing on the stock
once its AGM is done with. Both are logically possible.
Duran Ventures (DRV.v): Our recently added smallfry play put in a good percentage win but
that’s all there really is to report, as trading was thin and interest low. I bought this stock for its
Minasnioc angle so it’s a case of waiting until news appears on that front. Until it does, I’m not
expecting much in the way of share price action or volume.
Plata Latina (PLA.v): Ditto DRV, as the percentage win as PLA rebounds on very low volume
12

from the worst excesses of its sell-off made its week look much better than it was. The plan to
leave this position once it’s back at something resembling reality is still firm and unchanged, but
as we don’t need the space on the list for the moment (we’ll have 14 open stocks this time next
week, all going to plan) there’s still some time and patience available. On our list but it’s one to
sell, not buy.
The Copper Basket
After twenty-two weeks of 2013 The Copper Basket is showing a 22.16% loss to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/13 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Resources NGQ.to 3.40 168.63 360.87 2.14 -37.1%
2 Augusta Res AZC.to 2.43 144.1 374.66 2.60 7.0%
3 Lumina Copper LCC.v 9.43 43.46 299.44 6.89 -26.9%
4 Copper Fox CUU.v 0.83 399.61 271.73 0.68 -18.1%
5 Nevada Copper NCU.to 3.50 80.5 186.76 2.32 -33.7%
6 Hot Chili Ltd HCH.ax 0.72 286.78 140.52 0.49 -31.9%
7 Reservoir Min. RMC.v 2.41 41.46 105.72 2.55 5.8%
8 NovaCopper NCQ.to 1.80 51.89 96.00 1.85 2.8%
9 Western Copper WRN.to 1.39 93.78 63.77 0.68 -51.1%
10 Panoro Minerals PML.v 0.62 176.25 50.23 0.285 -54.0%
11 Curis Resources CUV.to 0.70 56.31 37.16 0.66 -5.7%
12 Candente Copper DNT.to 0.375 121.93 29.26 0.24 -36.0%
13 Yellowhead Min. YMI.to 0.59 60.97 25.00 0.41 -30.5%
14 Oracle Mining OMN.to 0.80 49.03 15.69 0.32 -60.0%
15 Strait Minerals SRD.v 0.08 56.86 4.55 0.08 0.0%
NB: HCH.ax priced in AUD$, rest CAD$ Portfolio avg -22.16%
Copper Basket 2013 average, weekly
The Copper Basket saw six of its
16%
component stocks put in a winning week (),
12%
one remain unchanged (YMI.to) and eight
8%
stocks show a weekly loss (NGQ.to, LCC.v, 4%
PML.v, NCQ.to, RMC.v, DNT.to, OMN.to, 0%
CUV.to), so the headcount clearly shows a -4%
-8%
sector that didn’t benefit from the positive
-12%
vibes in the same way as the PM juniors. -16%
However, thanks largely to the big -20%
percentage move on low volumes seen in -24%
Strait Minerals (SRD.v up 45.5%) the
overall basket put in a winning
performance, up a touch over 1% since
IKN212. The worst loser by quite some
distance was Oracle Mining (OMN.to down 28.9%) which had
a very tough May, rotten even judged next to the poverty of
sector standards. All other stocks made relatively minor
percentage moves.
Moving to the metal, which traded in a very tight range last
week with the high and the low just 5c apart...not like Dr
Copper at all, really. In much the same way as report in last
week’s edition, there was all the bullish bias confirmation you’d
ever want in the trade press if you think copper’s going higher
soon, but exactly can be said for the bear side of the coin.
Though happily we are back to China as the focus of nearly
everyone’s attention; it’s just that people can’t decide whether
13
ht6naj ht31 ht02 ht72 r3bef ht01 ht71 ht42 dr3ram ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpa ht41 ts12 ht82 t5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj
source: IKN calcs, TSX data
31/1/1
morf
egnahc
%

data from the world’s biggest user and importer are good or bad.
So to inventories and as May is now done it’s time for our now regular the end of month review
of world stocks, charts as follows.
The top themes for May are the drop in overall world copper stocks and the ever-increasing
concentration of stocks at LME. The drop in copper at Shanghai futures exchange warehouses
during the month was nothing short of dramatic, down 17.4% (217,180mt to 179317mt) from
end April. LME stocks dropped a little too (11k mt) but the theme there is still how LME copper
is apparently being hoarded by the industry middlemen using the bonded warehouses to keep
potential end user supply away from the physical market. The theory goes that these stocks will
be freed up come the end of the year, but that’s by no means a given and we may be moving
towards the type of situation suffered in the Alu market, where metal is kept away from buyers
on a near-indefinite timescale thanks to the idiosyncrasies of the LME system and the greed of
its participants. Could be, and the Shanghai stock drop indicates that there’s enough real end-
user demand to keep things buoyant as well. At end November 2012, the LME held 48.78% of
world copper warehouse inventories, with Shanghai at 40.21%. In just six months the
panorama has changed dramatically, with LME now at 70.69% and Shanghai at 20.83%.
Wrapping up, LME inventories hiked again and now stand at 38.1% of all stocks, which would
normally be a bullish sign but these are strange days.
Cancelled Warrants at LME, IKN157 to date
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
14
751NKI 951NKI 161NKI 361NKI 561NKI 761NKI 961NKI 171NKI 371NKI 571NKI 771NKI 971NKI 181NKI 381NKI 581NKI 781NKI 981NKI 191NKI 391NKI 591NKI 791NKI 991NKI 102NKI 302NKI 502NKI 702NKI 902NKI 112NKI 312NKI
source: Cochilco, LME
rof
yrotnevni
EML
%
latot
yreviled
resu-dne
Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Now for updates on some of the basket stocks:
Candente Copper (DNT.to): We reported on the problems at the Cañaris round table
negotiations last week but since then the meeting has been delayed not once but twice, with
the meeting now set to go ahead on June 15th. They’ll still be virtually empty shell round table
talks though, with even the pro-mining local community representatives now refusing to attend
and leaving the government and the mining company to make pleasant chat. Top priority will
be the official ratification and/or rejection of the two votes made last year. The first gave DNT
is social licence and is contested by locals as having happened in strange circumstances, the
21.naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 31.naJ bef ram rpa yam
Copper inventories, per month 2012/2013
1000000
LME Shanghai Comex
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
source: Cochilco
21.naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 31.naJ bef ram rpa yam
Mt Cu
LME Shanghai Comex
source: Cochilco

second saw an overwhelming vote by locals to kick the mining company and is, surprise
surprise, contested by DNT as having happened in unofficial circumstances.
Oracle Mining (OMN.to): OMN is showing the
classic problems faced when a thinly traded stock in
an out-of-favour sector gets hit by a persistent seller.
The stock was driven lower and lower last week and
although the 200k block we witnessed Friday might be
the end of things, our obviously determined seller may
well have more left to dump on the market next week
and drive the already “unfairly low” price even lower.
Strait Minerals (SRD.v): SRD had a good week,
with even a little volume to speak of on Monday (124k
shares) that popped the stock to 8c, after which is basically stayed where it was. SRD, via its
Teck JV at Alicia, is one of the companies that looks set to most directly benefit from the
permitting flexibilization initiatives announced last weekend by President Ollanta Humala (see
IKN212), as it’s things such as the community agreement papers and permits from the people
who oversee archeological matters in Peru that have stopped this drill program in its tracks.
Yes, it’d be good to see Alicia finally get moving.
The Lottery Ticket Basket
After 22 weeks of 2013 The Lottery Ticket Basket is showing a 33.68% loss to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/13 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Marlin Gold MLN.v 0.10 379.9 26.59 0.070 -30.0%
2 Eagle Star Min. EGE.v 0.125 69.48 18.41 0.265 112.0%
3 Bellhaven BHV.v 0.14 137 8.91 0.065 -53.6%
4 Fancamp Expl. FNC.v 0.125 118.41 8.29 0.070 -44.0%
5 Gryphon Gold GGN.to 0.085 194.64 5.84 0.030 -64.7%
6 Glass Earth GEL.v 0.155 104.79 4.72 0.045 -71.0%
7 Tango Gold TGV.v 0.13 45.59 4.33 0.095 -26.9%
8 AQM Copper AQM.v 0.08 105.57 3.69 0.035 -56.3%
9 Copper North COL.v 0.10 58.62 3.52 0.060 -40.0%
10 Inca One Res. IO.v 0.12 34.0 3.06 0.090 -25.0%
11 Darwin Resources DAR.v 0.20 26.16 3.01 0.115 -42.5%
12 Cream Minerals CMA.v 0.03 155.34 2.33 0.015 -50.0%
13 Rio Cristal RCZ.v 0.025 149.26 2.24 0.015 -40.0%
14 Firestone Ventures FV.v 0.045 36.32 1.09 0.030 -33.3%
15 Netco Silver NEI.v 0.025 47.01 0.71 0.015 -40.0%
Portfolio avg -33.68%
Surprisingly for some, there were but five 25% Lottery Ticket Basket 2013 average, weekly
winning moves amongst our Lottery Basket 20%
15%
components (MLN.v, BHV.v, COL.v, CMA.v,
10%
NEI.v), while six stocks remained unchanged 5%
(GGN.to, AQM.v, DAR.v, IO.v, RCZ.v, FV.v), 0%
-5%
which means four stocks lost ground last week
-10%
(GEL.v, FNC.v, EGE.v, TGV.v). The biggest -15%
-20%
moves were the 50.0% gains in both Cream
-25%
Minerals (CMA.v) and Netco Silver (NEI.v), -30%
though they’re both more akin to electroshock -35%
treatment for a cardiac arrest victim than a
real move in anything remotely healthy or
15
ht6naj ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3bef ht01 ht71 ht42 dr3ram ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7rpa ht41 ts12 ht82 t5yam ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2nuj
source: IKN Weekly data, TSX
2102/1/1
morf
egnahc
%

tradeworthy. I say surprisingly for some because it’s no surprise for me. The pattern now fixing
in for this basket fits the theory we’ve been pushing about the how the decent juniors will
detach from the crud and rebound, while the bad end of the sector will continue with pain and
more pain until final death arrives. Last week we noted six stocks that might still have a trade in
them, however this week we name and shame...
• Gryphon Gold (GGN.to)
• Glass Earth Gold (GEL.v)
• Cream Minerals (CMA.v)
• Rio Cristal (RCZ.v)
• Netco Silver (NEI.v)
...as five stocks that are dead and buried, lost beyond hope of retrieval, broken and smashed to
the point where all the king’s horses and all the king’s men wouldn’t even bother trying to put
them back together again. And a word on AQM Copper (AQM.v) while here, that large bag held
by your author. It is in a terrible state, but amazingly I retain hopes left for this thing so I’m
leaving it off the list of dead, broken stocks for the time being. Feel free to laugh at that call.
Marlin Gold (MLN.v): I had my hand slapped last week, and rightly so, by A. Reader who
noted that the share count for MLN.v as used on the above table was way out of date. Since
Wexford ran the secondary in MLN ($15m at 8c per share), the share count has risen from
192.4m to 379.9m, giving MLN a market cap of $26.6m as at Friday’s close and it’s now the
biggest of our tinycap crop, by quite some way. That’s a big jump in the share count and I’d
forgotten to update my database, which was naughty.
Glass Earth Gold (GEL.v): The only surprising thing about GEL last week was that after
hitting 4c, somebody decided to pay up for the stock and pushed it back to 5c before it closed
4.5c Friday. They either have no idea what they’re buying or they’re in denial. This stock is
broken, dead, finished.
Regional politics
Chile: More evidence of rising capex
We know all about Barrick Pascua Lama, but last week saw news from Codelco that
underscores the rising costs of capex in the big mine industry in Chile. The State run company
is currently in permitting stage for the expansion of the Radomiro Tomic mine in the
Antofagasta region, with the plan to move from its current oxides operation to sulphides
starting in 2018. That’s all for the future, but our interest comes from the way in which Codelco
officially budgeted the Radomiro Tomic stage two sulphides capex at U$4.4Bn in March, via its
official investment plan presented to the government that time. However, when presenting its
environmental impact study on May 30th Codelco revealed (8) a budget of U$5.4Bn, or in other
words the price tag has risen by a full billion in just one quarter.
Peru: La Libertad roadblock
Interesting stuff from the La Libertad region of Peru last week, as the local “Ronderos” (rural
defence organizations in Peru, see IKNs passim) have been conducting protests for the last
seven days against the arrest warrant and potential trial of four of their members, who have
been charged with kidnapping and holding people against their will, charges that carry a
maximum penalty of 25 years in jail (see media coverage here (9)for all you can eat in Spanish
language). To cut a long story short, the ronderos say the people kept against their will were
criminals who were active in their areas and that the rondero groups were only doing what they
are organized to do, namely protecting their localities from crime. They also say the judge who
issued the arrest warrants has accepted a bribe to do so.
That’s the background and now for the reason why it’s interesting. For the first four days, the
ronderos staged partial roadblocks in the La Libertad region but got very little press coverage or
traction. Then in the period day five until today (there are apparently 3,000 people in the
16

protests today Sunday, a big number) the ronderos upped the ante and fully blocked the main
trunk road that runs through the region (past mines such as Quiruvilca, Alto Chicama, La Arena,
San Simon La Virgen etc) which is the only real supply road for the towns of Otuzco,
Huamachuco amongst others. They then added “pollution from mining” to the list of protest
complaints and suddenly were given national level press coverage! That’s the way the game is
played in Peru these days, ladies and gentlemen. If you have a grievance about some judge or
courtroom or other and block a road, nobody will care because you’re not pressing the right
buttons and not affecting (potentially or in reality) the economic activity of the country.
However, mention the magic words “mining protest” and you’re immediately afforded all the
press coverage and sympathy you require for your cause.
In practical terms, the current protest and roadblock actions are a big nuisance to locals but not
affecting mining operations in the region as yet. The word from your author’s main cause for
concern, Rio Alto’s (RIO.to) (RIOM), is that operations have been normal, they’ve run out of
bread in the canteen for lack of wheat supplies, but apart from that type of minor hitch things
are ok. However, if the protest goes on for much longer (another week, roughly speaking)
production may start to be affected. That’s not so likely, because negotiations are now moving
ahead and the rondero groups have said today they’ll call off the roadblocking actions as soon
as a resolution regarding the start of high-level talks between the sides is published in Peru’s
official gazette, ‘El Peruano’. That will probably happen in the next day or two.
Argentina: Santa Cruz update
This subject has been mentioned before, but we now have a little more detail on the changes
that the provincial Santa Cruz government in Argentina want to bring into its mining industry
and the main one is a 1% tax to be levied on the value of any reserves declared on a privately
owned metals mining company properties. That’s a hike form the current situation, though to
be fair it’s not a big one and as the payments up to this point in Santa Cruz have been
extremely low compared to peer regions, it’s still a reasonably competitive deal. It remains to
be seen just what Santa Cruz decides to define as “reserves”, because the word tends to
translate badly between Spanish and English so it’s by no means a given that it will only apply
to the 43-101 definition of “reserves” and not to “resources” as well. The same report (10) goes
on to note that exploration investment has dropped sharply in the Santa Cruz region this year
and gives specific examples.
• Cerro Vanguardia (Anglogold Ashanti (AU)) has cut its exploration budget by 30%
• Minera Santa Cruz (51% HOC.L, 49% MUX) has cut its exploration budget by $12m
• Minera Triton (PAA.to) has dropped its drilling budget from $11m to just $1m
• Patagonia Gold (PGD.L) has cut its drilling program by 50%
• Cerro Negro (GG) has cut its investment budget for the next stage of development
(post commissioning) by 50%
• Mariana Resources (MARL.L) has cut its total budget by 66%
• Samco Gold (SGA.v) will drill just 2,000m of the 40,000m program is had planned
(though that tiny junior is likely more constricted by its own treasury).
As well as those, we also know that Minera IRL (MIRL.L) (IRL.to) has cut back on its
exploration at Don Nicolas and will concentrate on mine construction when (if?) its financing
deal is finally closed.
Ecuador: Mining law reform progress and Kinross news
First up, last week saw (11) the first debate in parliament of Ecuador’s mining reform bill (see
IKN211 for details), which received majority approval from congress (only the minority
indigenous party Pachakutik voted against) and as such, the bill was sent back to committee for
further refinement before the second debate and vote, expected in the next two weeks.
Ecuador has until June 15th to pass this bill as it has been deemed officially urgent by President
Correa.
The other news out of Ecuador is that the presidential secretary Alexis Mera (a de facto
17

government spokesperson and whose word reflects Correa’s opinions) made it clear last week
(12) that the August 15th time limit for an agreement between the government and Kinross
(K.to) (KGC) regarding the deal to move forward Fruta del Norte (FDN) and that in the event of
Kinross and the government failing to reach a final deal, the company would be stripped of its
concession and it would be handed back to the government. Mera said (translated), “If Kinross
wants to accept the conditions that the country has offered then fine, if not they can leave. We
are not going to insist. We are not going to extend the time limit for the operations permit in
Ecuador.”
There’s almost certainly a link between the passage of the mining bill and the agreement
between State and Kinross here. Once the law is passed, Correa and K will be able to fanfare
the final agreement as a triumph of the new law’s enactment and laud it as a great advance for
the country etc etc. We remind readers that the 5th of the five major changes proposed to the
mining law, was presented as follows in IKN211:
“Adjustments to the windfall tax (WFT) laws that will mean any new mining
operation does now pay WFT until its capex is covered by operational
revenues.”
The has always been the main sticking point between Kinross and Ecuador, with the company
not wanting to pay any sort of WFT. With the situation post-change presumably akin to that of
Dominican Republic, the likelihood of a deal is much higher. And once again again, as
mentioned in IKN211 the changes being moved through in Ecuador do indeed look positive for
the industry. Whether or not they result in an immediate sector rebound for Ecuador exposed
juniors is rather doubtful, but if Kinross does finally close on its deal then builds its mine at
FDN, a re-rating should follow eventually.
Market Watching
Peru, Sulliden (SUE.to) and political risk misconceptions
This is another one of those pieces that fits somewhere in between ‘Regional Politics’ and
‘Market Watching’. I’d originally planned it as being cleanly and squarely for the politics section
and I also didn’t want to go in for yet another session of Sulliden bashing. However, to get the
real point across mention has to be made of the deceptive strategies SUE.to has been using
behind the scenes so after consideration this gets presented to you in ‘Market Watching’
because it uses SUE.to as an example of false impressions the market has of Peru and its
mining scene. But SUE at Shahuindo is more an example than the main event here, as the true
takeaway can be applied to any and every mining company working the country.
So to business: In IKN212 last week we made mention of the initiative in Peru to improve the
permitting track for large civil works in the country. What follows continues from that note and
we start by quoting a section of the Scotiabank “Daily Mining Scoop” publication that is
published every weekday morning by that house. Here’s a section of the mailer in its
Wednesday May 29th edition:
- Peru Streamlines Permitting Process – Definite Positive for Sulliden: Earlier this week, the
Peruvian government passed a supreme decree requiring officials to complete certain stages of
environmental impact studies (EIS) on specific timelines, and limiting the entire process to 90
days. The supreme decree is part of a series of initiatives President Ollanta Humala recently
announced that aim to boost investment. According to media articles, under the decree the mines
and energy ministry (MEM) will now have three working days from the point at which an EIS is
submitted to send it to the public institutions that are required to give an opinion on the document,
such as the national water authority. The institutions then have 30 working days to review the
document and submit any comments or changes required. MEM will then have a maximum of 10
working days to pass the comments or changes onto the company, should there be any, and
once any issues are resolved and the document is re-submitted, MEM has three working days to
re-submit the EIS to the public institutions for a final evaluation. Final opinions will then be
required within another 10 working days. From that point, MEM has 20 working days to make a
final decision on the EIS, and, if approved, to issue the environmental certificate. Scotia Mining
18

Sales notes this is a definite positive for companies with permitting-stage projects in Peru, such
as Sulliden Gold (SUE-CN, not covered) who is rapidly advancing the Shahuindo gold heap leach
project (see slide below outlining permitting progression), with the project funding (and validation)
recently bolstered by a $24 million private placement from Agnico-Eagle for a 9.96% stake in the
company.
That made me laugh. No matter that the Peru government moves could be interpreted as
beneficial to dozens of mining companies, from the very largest to the very smallest and no
matter that there are 89 Peru-exposed companies listed on the TSX that hold between them
260 exploration stage projects (13), Scotia just happened to decide, out of nowhere, that the
one to feature on the back of the Peru government news was Sulliden. The Scotia piece then
continued with slides taken from the latest SUE presentation and its suitably rose-tinted
financial projections and that’s all fine, but it also helped a great deal in solving a small question
that had appeared to me day before, May 28th: Just why SUE.to had suddenly started moving
on volume for no apparent reason mid-morning Tuesday.
What me, cynical?
If there’s one thing I’ve learned about Stan Bharti plays it’s that they don’t suddenly start
moving all one their own for no reason whatsoever, therefore seeing it pumped on the back of
thin “improved permitting process in Peru” news the next day started to make sense. Due to
this, I spent the next couple of hours on Wednesday morning making discreet inquiries to
certain people in several brokerages and, sure enough, word was that representatives of SUE.to
had been in contact with just about all of them in the days before, making the pitch and getting
sellside to consider the advantages of the story (and I think we’d best just leave that part of the
story there). Put simply, what we saw last week was a sellside pump spurred on by a company
doing an effective IR job.
It’s also one of the worst companies you could pick as getting “a definite positive” from this
Peru government initiative and the way in which the story propagated, from house to house
and from those houses to clients and the media, shows just how badly the Peru political risk
situation is understood abroad. This is really why I didn’t (and still don’t) want this piece to
descend into yet another round of SUE-bashing, because in the end the company’s public
relations moves are only ever going to promote the positives in their story, it’s not up to SUE to
reveal the whole truth, which is far less positive for the company’s image than the selective
truth it put forward to no end of ears last week.
First up, consider this news story (translated) from Peru last week (14). Please be clear that the
greater region is Cajamarca and the provinces mentioned of Cajabamba and San Marcos are
the zones inside Cajamarca most affected by the Shahuindo project.
Gregorio Santos asked to annul workshops held by Sulliden Shahuindo
29 May 2013
Juan Arribasplata
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Several social organizations from the Condebamba valley in Cajamarca, along with the
president of the Environmental Defence Front and Interests association, Edilberto
Liñan, have demanded that Cajamarca’s regional president, Gregorio Santos, annul
the outcome of workshops held by mining company Sulliden Shahuindo in different
localities in Cajabamba as according to their argument they were held in a fraudulent
manner.
Tanina Poveda, director of the radio news program Con-tacto de Cajabamba told
Noticias SER that local defence organizations in the Cajabamba and San Marcos
provinces have stated that if the regional president doesn’t sign the resolution that
annuls the workshops and their results, they will present themselves at his office in
order to demand his signature. “The defence movement have asked for an interview
with Santos before our planned protest march to Cajamarca city, hopefully we’ll get an
answer.”
The report continues, but the thrust is covered by those first two paragraphs. What we have is
continued strong local opposition to the Shahuindo project which may be right or wrong and is
almost certainly not simply about environmental worries. There is a lot of informal/illegal mining
going on the the Shahuindo zone which is sponsored and/or protected by local leaders (who
presumably get their juicy cuts of the proceeds). For a lot more on that subject this Spanish
language report (15) (that considers many angles, including the difficult history of the
Shahuindo project, the dark players in its background, the amount of mining business being
done there and the large amount of environmental damage being done by those informal
miners) is an unbeatable source and since its publication in 2012 the situation has got worse,
rather than better. The point here is that regional governor and well-known pain in the butt
Gregorio Santos, who is now considering his options for the round of elections coming in 2014
and weighing up different options for his next elected post (16) is being asked to choose
between supporting a foreign mining company or his local constituents. Take a wild guess on
which way this one’s going to go, people.
We now get to the point of all this talk about SUE at Shahuindo, its price rise on promo
pumping in Canada last week and the things we’ve mentioned in the last two weeks that are
going on at both national and regional level in Peru politics. It can be boiled down into a simple
statement and it’s the single thing to take away from this piece of rambling prose, which is why
it’s getting highlighted:
Peru’s national government has has been, is and will forever be in favour of mining.
The initiatives mentioned in IKN212 last week are an extension of that attitude and
are positive enough, but there’s nothing that’s truly changed at a baseline or deeper
level with that announcement. However, one thing that should be crystal clear by
now and after the last few years providing ample evidence is that without local
support, mining projects in Peru are not going to happen and are worth nothing.
Are we clear? The national government favoured, favours and will favour and support projects
such as Conga, Majaz, Tia Maria, Santa Ana, Cañariaco and a host of others in exactly the same
way it will support SUE.to when (not if, but when) it awards the environmental permit to the
Shahuindo project later this year. The national government can streamline all the national
permitting tracks it wants and send in all the police it cares to send in to try and strongarm
people into accepting its preferred way of doing things. But without local support, things like
Shahuindo are not, not and three times not going to happen, ever. That SUE.to based last
week’s pump job on the national initiative is laughable, not because the package of measures
will apply to all companies in the country (it will) but because SUE.to is hiding the real reason
for the indefinite delays and serious problems faced by the company and its project away from
the investment community, an attitude that’s fully aided and abetted by the Canadian
brokerage community, of course.
It’s wrong to say flat never on this issue, because things can change with time, but never can
be used with a qualification: Unless SUE at Shahuindo tackles an eventually improves the
20

serious and manifold problems it has with the local residents, Shahuindo will never happen. It
matters not one jot that the national government is in favour, is streamlining things and that
the nationally run Mining Ministry will approve the project’s environmental permit because what
matters is at a local or regional level. The problems at Shahuindo go back to before SUE.to time
there, but the current owners have done very little to improve matters (it’s a complicated
situation, nuanced and no side can claim to be whiter than white but in several ways things are
worse than before, in fact) and Peru version 21st century is very different from the country of
even 20 years ago, where national will could be imposed on local communities or there’d be
blood until surrender was achieved.
The bottom line is straightforward enough: Those brokerage boiler room employees who
were phoning clients in Vancouver, Toronto etc last week to urge them into SUE stock last week
do not know what they’re talking about. But the thing is, the boiler room boss giving the phone
lackeys the orders doesn’t have a clue, either. Neither does their boss who told them to man
the pumps on SUE because they’d heard good things. That’s because s/he got the information
from a company that has its own very specific agenda and will cherrypick its facts carefully,
without ever giving the full story. Good news travels fast, bad news travels slowly.
Mining companies working Peru projects in the 21st century reap what they sow at a local level.
The lion’s share of problems at Conga stem from the arrogant and high-handed way Yanacocha
S.A. has gone about business at the Yanacocha mine over the last 20 years (main blame lies
with Roque Benavides). Lupaka Gold (LPK.to) can go into Invicta with the best intentions in the
world, but the way in which AAG.v treated locals a few years ago has screwed the roost there,
permanently. Those two and dozens more are available as examples, but the flipside is also
true and it’s why I’m confident about the future of Minera IRL (IRL.to) at Ollachea or Bear
Creek (BCM.v) at Corani, because right from the start and all the way through the project
development track those companies have been smart, understanding respectful and intelligent
with their local community dealings with the result being a win/win. Now for sure it’s not always
that simple and this short article can’t catch it all (e.g. Santa Ana has its own specific reasons
for failing miserably, things we’ve touched upon in previous editions of The IKN Weekly) but a
simple “local community relations are vitally important and don’t you ever forget it” covers
maybe 90% of the issue well enough. Do not confuse national and regional political risk in Peru
(or anywhere else for that matter, but Peru is a top case study for these things) and don’t fall
for the soft soap that serial sophists such as the people at SUE.to will have you believe. Without
local support, you’re in serious trouble and it doesn’t matter how wonderful the national
government thinks you are.
Conclusion
IKN213 is done, we close with bullet points:
• The main fare today are thew two new positions we’re adding this week, that of the
separate trader in Rio Alto (RIO.to) (RIOM) and the riskier Bellhaven (BHV.v). The key
will be to watch the gold market, because if metals go South there will be no escape for
the equities. But as signs have been modestly good it’s time to add some modest
exposure to the market.
• Along with BHV and RIO, we went long Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) late last week via
the Flash update announcement and duly closed our Tahoe Resources (TAHO) short, so
the portfolio is now clearly longer in profile than it was.
• I’ve been asked a lot about other potential shorts and although there are plenty that I’d
love to short (such as SUE.to), the fact they only quote on the TSX (or V) makes them
difficult in practical terms. I want to keep things real here and offer ideas that of active
use to just about any reader who wants to play the short side, which means picking
stocks that are quoted on the NYSE/Nasdaq and are more easily available as lends. As
yet I’m not looking for new shorts, but there are a few targets to mull over with one of
21

them Primero (P.to) (PPP), which still looks overextended compared to its earnings
potential.
• In Peru national politics are miner friendly. You need to know your local situation
because it’s the whole ballgame.
The top long-term picks are Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) and B2Gold (BTO.to). I thank you in
advance for any feedback sent in. Flash updates will be sent promptly if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Otto
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) http://www.thestreet.com/story/11935165/1/kass-the-case-to-buy-gold.html
(2) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/rio-alto-produce-190-000-110000356.html
(3) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/rio-alto-produces-36-355-110000187.html
(4) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/seafield-discovers-porphyry-style-mineralization-110000259.html
(5) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/solvista-gold-reports-continued-drilling-120000280.html
(6) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bellhaven-collars-first-drill-hole-110000918.html
(7) http://www.andina.com.pe/Espanol/noticia-minag-municipalidad-corani-y-empresa-minera-promoveran-desarrollo-
alpaquero-puno-460831.aspx#.UalG99K_Vcc
(8) http://www.latercera.com/noticia/negocios/2013/06/655-526216-9-radomiro-tomic-se-encarece-en-us-1000-
millones.shtml
(9) https://www.google.com/news?ncl=dPsktpCqcJtwfrMo3d3T8BxHMkIAM&q=la+libertad+ronderos&lr=Spanish&hl=es
(10) http://www.cronista.com/negocios/Mineras-santacruceas-siguen-de-cerca-posibles-cambios-impositivos-20130531-
0068.html
(11) http://www.eldiario.ec/noticias-manabi-ecuador/267459-la-ley-de-mineria-regresa-a-comision/
(12) http://www.elnuevoempresario.com/ecuador_221071_tesis-de-la-ecuarunari-se-queda-sin-piso-empresa-minera-
kinross-dejaria-de-operar-en-el-pais.php
(13) http://www.andina.com.pe/Espanol/noticia-hay-89-empresas-listan-la-tsx-tienen-260-proyectos-peru-
460958.aspx#.UauJE9K_Vcc
(14) http://www.noticiasser.pe/29/05/2013/cajamarca/piden-gregorio-santos-que-anule-talleres-realizados-por-minera-
sulliden-shahuin
(15) http://www.scribd.com/doc/91028716/DIAGNOSTICO-ALGAMARCA-GRUFIDES
(16) http://www.gatoencerrado.net/store/noticias/74/74638/detalle.htm
Appendix 1: Flash update dated Thursday May 30th
Good Morning, around 7am local time, an hour and a half before the opening bell, on a cold morning where winter's
setting in, 7,800 feet above sea level.
It's still a near-term trade perspective rather than the type of investment I prefer. It won't be a massive trade in cash
terms, either. However, today I buy Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v). More on the trade this weekend, including a close
look at the company financials and its Corani project as stands today in the new lower price and higher costs
environment. However the main reasons are:
1) It's a quality project and the company share price, under $2 at the close, looks like it's lagging even compared with
other beaten down peers.
2) Several juniors with Peru exposure have bounced a little this week thanks to the news of the government's plans to
make permitting easier and quicker for mining companies. BCM hasn't bounced and may be next on the list of movers.
We remind readers that unlike other projects that have serious and project-killing local opposition (e.g.Sulliden Gold's
(SUE.to) Shahuindo), Corani has strong support from the people who live locally.
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3) Precious metals prices have shown well these last few day. no massive upmoves, but enough to strengthen your
author's best guess that we're bottomed out at current prices. As such, putting some of the sidelined cash to work
makes portfolio sense.
As a final aside, the price chart comparative of SUE.to (which has been pumped hard by more than one sellside
brokerage in Canada this week) to BCM.v makes interesting viewing:
If you care to investigate further, the comparative works at 12 month and 24 month levels as well. There are no
guarantees with like-like share prices, but this current period looks out of the ordinary and the track records of the two
shares suggest they'll close that gap eventually.
I'll be happy enough with a buy price for BCM.v of $2 or thereabouts.
CAVEAT: The US metals markets are not open yet. If there's a significant sell-off in silver (gold) between now and my
buytime for BCM.v, I'll pass on the trade.
Best, O
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2012
Closed in 2012 closed close PPS
Soltoro SOL.v jan'12 C$0.87 07-nov-11 C$0.94 8.0% cash moved to BCM.v
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to feb'12 C$0.84 13-oct-10 C$0.98 16.7% trade closed on ELG.v offer
Minefinders MFN feb'12 U$11.68 17-nov-11 U$14.80 26.7% target made, trade closed
Iron Creek IRN.v mar'12 C$0.58 26-sep-10 C$0.31 -46.6% time up on small bad trade
U.S. Silver USA.to apr'12 C$2.18 15-mar-12 C$1.86 -14.7% ST trade no good, cut loss
Augusta Res. AZC.to may'12 C$3.10 29-ene-12 C$2.07 -33.2% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Bellhaven BHV.v may'12 C$0.50 22-sep-10 C$0.28 -44.0% new mgmt not impressive
Zincore Metals ZNC.to may'12 C$0.325 29-jul-11 C$0.17 -47.7% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Soltoro SOL.v may'12 C$0.70 18-mar-11 C$0.41 -41.4% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
U.S. Silver USA.to aug'12 C$1.78 27-jul-12 C$1.36 -23.6% fail ST trade close pre split
Estrella Gold EST.v aug'12 C$0.91 27-mar-11 C$0.14 -84.6% Closed on port realignment
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'12 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.32 397.2% sell call $6.17/ Mar25
Strait Minerals SRD.v oct'12 C$0.125 09-dic-11 C$0.12 -4.0% closing coverage til FY13
Sunward Res SWD.to oct'12 C$1.47 13-mar-11 C$1.21 -17.7% sold, took loss
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'12 U$21.47 09-sep-12 U$17.40 19.0% Short trade closed
Yellowhead Min. YMI.to nov'12 C$1.00 01-abr-12 C$0.63 -37.0% sold, took loss
Primero Mining PPP nov'12 U$7.26 07-oct-12 U$6.73 7.3% Short trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v nov'12 C$3.38 07-nov-11 C$3.72 10.1% Took small profit
Vena Resources VEM.to dec'12 C$0.70 31-may-09 C$0.18 -74.3% Failed trade (caps F)
Galway Res GWY.v dec'12 C$2.19 24-nov-12 C$2.30 5.0% closed good ST arb trade
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2011
Closed in 2011 closed close PPS
Sunward Res SWD.v jan'11 C$1.05 21-nov-10 C$1.63 55.2% target made, trade closed
Serengeti Res SIR.v mar'11 C$0.245 05-dec-10 C$0.285 16.3% sold pre-tgt, ST trade fail
Fronteer Gold FRG apr'11 U$2.37 03-may-09 U$15.24 543.0% buyout, trade closed
Minefinders MFN apr'11 U$9.09 07-nov-10 U$16.89 85.8% target made, trade closed
Metalline Min. MMG may'11 U$1.04 26-jan-11 U$0.89 -14.4% exit, resource disappointed
Peregrine Met PGM.to jul'11 C$0.87 06-mar-11 C$2.60 198.9% buyout offer, closed
Dynasty Metals DMM.to jul'11 C$4.20 03-may-09 C$2.85 -32.1% Sold. Fail. Move on.
Aura Silver AUU.v aug'11 C$0.22 13-oct-10 C$0.16 -36.4% Bad pick. Take loss
U.S. Silver USA.v aug'11 C$0.52 26-jan-11 C$0.71 36.5% closed to make room
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'11 C$2.80 12-may-11 C$4.27 52.5% target made, trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v sep'11 C$3.80 27-may-11 C$4.17 9.7% macro sell call victim
Minefinders MFN sep'11 U$14.70 10-aug-11 U$15.15 3.1% macro sell call victim
Great Panther GPR.to sep'11 C$3.03 22-aug-11 C$2.64 -12.9% macro sell call victim
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'11 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.36 400.9% sold 20%, macro sell call
Focus Ventures FCV.v nov'11 C$0.40 20-apr-10 C$0.20 -50.0% cut losses, bad trade
Regulus Res. REG.v dec'11 C$1.17 14-aug-11 C$0.52 -55.6% cut on news of poor 43-101
2009 and 2010 closed positions in appendices below
23

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2010
Closed in 2010 closed close PPS
B2Gold Corp BTO.to Jan'10 C$0.88 08-nov-09 C$1.49 68.2% target made, trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v Jan'10 C$0.18 23-aug-09 C$0.40 122.2% target made, trade closed
MAG Silver MVG mar'10 U$5.60 23-nov-09 U$7.28 30.0% closed in pdac week
Riverside Res RRI.v mar'10 C$0.435 20-sep-09 C$0.60 37.9% closed in pdac week
Amarillo Gold AGC.v mar'10 C$0.81 31-may-09 C$0.70 -13.6% closed in pdac week
B2Gold Corp BTO.to apr'10 C$1.24 18-feb-10 C$1.50 21.0% target made, trade closed
Lumina Copper LCC.v apr'10 C$0.84 14-jun-09 C$1.55 51.2% total position now sold
Troy Resources TRY.to may'10 C$1.10 03-may-09 C$2.25 104.5% sold on negative results
AuEx Ventures XAU.to may'10 C$2.51 24-may-09 C$3.38 34.7% trade closed
Nevada Copper NCU.to jun'10 C$3.27 14-mar-10 C$2.03 -37.9% need to lower Cu exposure
Carpathian Gold CPN.to jun'10 C$0.39 14-mar-10 C$0.35 -10.3% too exposed to cap raising
Amerix PM Corp APM.v jun'10 C$0.065 08-nov-09 C$0.05 -23.1% victim of macro bear
Antares Minerals ANM.v jun'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$2.10 47.9% sold half
Vena Resources VEM.to jun'10 C$0.37 31-may-09 C$0.23 -37.8% sold half
Minera Andes MAI.to sep'10 C$0.75 28-jul-10 C$0.95 26.7% ST trade closed
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to sep'10 C$0.52 01-aug-10 C$0.75 44.2% target made, trade closed
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'10 C$1.45 25-may-10 C$2.01 34.5% target made, trade closed
Blue Sky Uran BSK.v oct'10 C$0.41 19-may-10 C$0.22 -46.3% v small v bad trade closed
Dia Bras Expl DIB.v oct'10 C$0.14 30-aug-09 C$0.35 150.0% target made, trade closed
S. Amer. Silver SAC.to nov'10 C$1.38 24-oct-10 C$1.60 -15.9% loss on short, small fail
Ventana Gold VEN.to nov'10 C$7.92 27-jun-10 C$13.51 70.6% trade closed on buyout
Lumina Copper LCC.v nov'10 C$1.42 11-aug-10 C$3.65 157.0% trade closed
Antares Minerals ANM.v dec'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$8.40 491.5% trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.v dec'10 C$0.69 23-mar-10 C$2.16 213.0% trade closed
Coro Mining COP.to dec'10 C$0.585 03-oct-10 C$1.24 112.0% target made, trade closed
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2009
Closed positions closed closing PPS
Cardero Res CDY/CDU.to May'09 U$1.20 03-May-09 U$0.87 -27.5% sold on negative news
Eastmain Res. ER.to May'09 C$1.04 06-May-09 C$1.315 26.4% trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v May'09 C$0.165 03-May-09 C$0.235 42.4% trade closed
Latin Amer Min. LAT.v May'09 C$0.12 03-May-09 C$0.158 29.2% trade closed
Aquiline Res. AQI.to July'09 C$2.03 16-Jun-09 C$1.68 -17.2% took loss, bad timing
Chariot Resources CHD.to Aug'09 C$0.20 12-Jul-09 C$0.415 107.5% trade closed
Castle Gold CSG.v Sep'09 C$0.64 02-Aug-09 C$0.60 -6.3% ST trade didn't work out
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to Sep'09 C$2.30 12-May-09 C$4.50 95.7% profit taken
Los Andes Copper LA.v Sep'09 C$0.09 21-Jun-09 C$0.09 0% trade closed
Pediment Gold PEZ.to Oct'09 C$0.80 09-Aug-09 C$1.00 25.0% trade closed
Minera Andes MAI.to Oct'09 C$0.68 03-May-09 C$0.71 4.4% too much bad news
Dynasty Metals DMM.to Nov'09 C$4.18 03-May-09 C$6.01 43.8% half sold
Rusoro Mining RML.v Nov'09 C$0.55 03-May-09 C$0.57 3.6% underperformed
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
24