IKN #198Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 198, February 17th 2013
Contents
This Week: Happy Families, Travel plans, First Majestic and Coeur and the memo neither
company has read.
Fundamental Analysis: Radius Gold (RDU.v): A case study of underlying value a junior.
Stocks to Follow: Overview, Marlin Gold (MLN.v), Lachlan Star (LSA.to)(LSA.ax), B2Gold
(BTO.to), Plata Latina (PLA.v), Minera IRL (IRL.to)(MIRL.L), Aurcana Corp (AUN.v), OceanaGold
(OGC.to)(OGC.ax), Lupaka Gold (LPK.to), Focus Ventures (FCV.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Nevada Copper (NCU.to), NovaCopper (NCQ.to), Curis Resources
(CUV.to).
The Lottery Ticket Basket: Overview, Bellhaven (BHV.v), Darwin (DAR.v), Glass Earth
(GEL.v).
Regional Politics: Ecuador’s Presidential election, Peru: Listing in Lima, PDAC 2013: Mucho
Latin America, Peru: Tia Maria coming back on the agenda.
Market Watching: Lachlan Star (LSA.to) (LSA.ax) December quarter results, OceanaGold
(OGC.to) (OGC.ax) December quarter results.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Happy Families
We remind readers that due to “Family Day” (the nicest excuse for a day off work there could
possibly be, I doff my hat Canada) the Canadian stock markets are closed Monday.
Travel plans
Next week your author is off visiting the Darwin Resources (DAR.v) early stage exploration
property at Suriloma, as well as hanging in Lima for a couple of days either side of the site visit
trip to talk with several offices of junior mining companies (including Minera IRL, Rio Alto and a
couple of other companies not currently covered that will remain nameless for the moment).
Due to all this, posting on the blog will be light next week.
First Majestic, Coeur and the memo neither company has read
Will no one rid me of this turbulent priest?"
Henry II
Watching the action in First Majestic (FR.to) and Coeur (CDE) last week (neither of which I
own, by way of full disclosure) I couldn’t help but wonder whether either of the management
teams had got the message being sent loud and clear from the uppoer echelons of the precious
metals mining world. It was also apparent that the respective boards of both companies have a
different idea of what their fiduciary duty might be towards their shareholders than the
shareholders themselves
1

Although not mentioned much by your author (barring one quick blog post at the time and a
quick notice in IKN189) FR has had a all share friendly offer in for Orko Silver (OK.v) since mid-
December (1) that valued the transaction at a ticket price of $2.72 per share for OK.v. On the
day before the deal proposal was announced FR.to was trading at $22.64. That day the stock
dropped 10.4% and today FR finds itself at $17.36. Ahem.
With the backdrop in place, we cut to last Tuesday February 13th as Coeur (CDE) announced (2)
a counter-offer for OK.v, a cash/share $2.70 bid (70c of that being the cash) that was accepted
as a superior friendly bid by OK.v. The result on the two competing stocks can be seen in this
five day chart:
Wednesday Feb 13th saw FR.to rally by as much as 5% at one point, while CDE lost nearly 10%
on the day.
In other words, longs of FR.to were suddenly breathing a very large sigh of relief, while CDE
shareholders were wondering just why its company’s management team had decided to outbid
a friendly offer during an outright awful moment for silver stocks and tank its own share price.
However, midday Wednesday saw First Majestic reversing its gains and the apparent reason for
the change came Thursday when FR announced its reaction to the news (3). The NR was
carefully worded, but gives the distinct impression that instead of thanking its lucky stars for an
out on a deal that had been weighing heavily around the company’s neck for nearly two months
and merely walking away from the deal (and collecting a very useful $11.6m break fee in the
process), FR was seriously considering making a counter-offer to the CDE offer and competing
for OK.v. As the action Thursday shows, CDE rallied and FR.to dropped further. Then came a
very nasty Friday when all stocks got hit, no matter what they were doing or where they were
going, so less can be read into that day’s action except that FR and CDE traded largely in line
with one another.
The implication is clear: This weekend there must be a whole bunch of CDE longs praying that
FR.to makes that counterbid, while there’s a whole bunch of FR.to longs praying that its
management team walks away from the deal and leaves it in the hands of its competitor! And
what that means is that both sets of management are not seeing the wood for the trees, have
not taken on the clear lessons handed down from the Tier 1 mining companies in the last
couple of weeks about reeling in expansion plans and not overpaying for expensive projects in a
“grow at all costs” attitude. Coeur has always struck me as a company with management that
lives in a different epoch (the 1950’s perhaps?) but it would be a real disappointment to see
FR.to, a company that’s executed so well in the last three years, not see the wood for the trees
and take the chance to escape, breathing a large sigh of relief. Walk away Neumeyer, just walk.
2

Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Radius Gold (RDU.v): A case study of underlying value a junior
Last week I received this mail you see below from reader DL.
Hey Mark
Again – I’m sure you’re up on this but just in case:
RDU is offered (315,000 shares) at 17 cents –for a market cap of $14.6mm (17mm fully
diluted)
Liquid NAV:
• $2.5mm cash
• $14.5mm of BTO stock (4.4mm –ish shares left) – I spoke with Jacklyn and couldn’t
get a precise number for what’s left.
Illiquid items:
• $10 per oz for proven and probable reserves above 500k oz at Trebol
• JV with BTO on San Jose and Magnolia (60:40)
• $10mm in future payments from Kappes Cassidy on Guatemala properties
• Guatemala geothermal properties and other exploration properties
• JV with Fortuna in Mexico
• Stock in Rackla and Focus
This just seems too cheap for that management team. FWIW - DL
Radius Gold (RDU.v) is a company I’ve always followed quite closely (and even traded
successfully a couple of time over the years) for reasons that include its solid management
team, its well-run “tight ship” approach to company structure and its potential at times for a
speculative vehicle on exploration and discovery at its projects. So yes I have been largely up
on this DL, but your mail did rouse me from a bit of a stupor around the stock and got me
looking a little more closely, rather than just assuming what I thought I knew was still the true
case of the stock.
We start with the basics and yes indeed, RDU was 17c at the time of DL’s mail and also closed
Friday at 17c. FWIW I have that market cap at $14.73m (86.676m S/O) but that’s splitting hairs
somewhat and DL’s observations are still on the ball. Now let’s take a closer look at the
apparent “value” on offer here.
• First up the easy bit; I agree with the value that the liquid NAV offers on RDU as seen
in the snapshot of the company today (taking that 4.4m shares of BTO as read). In fact
it’s tempting to go further, because being long BTO means I think those shares will
move up, so with a BTO at $4 (it’ll happen folks, pretty promise) we’ll be at $17.6m for
that line item. If that were so then the ~$20m approx in liquid assets would imply 23c
per share in cash and equivalents. For today’s exercise we’ll stick with present day
valuations, but owning this much BTO comes with real life near time potential benefits.
However, we should also note that assuming the 4.4m number is correct, RDU has sold
some 400k shares of BTO since its last reported quarter (when it held 4.815m shares of
BTO).
• Now onto the tougher ones, the illiquid items and the first one, $10/oz for P+P gold
ounces above 500k at Trebol, is at best a long way in the future and at worst worth
nothing. Even if the P+P ounce count goes higher than the 500k minimum, this is
unlikely to be a match-winning amount of money. 200k = $2m, 500k (which is very
unlikely) = $5m. It’s not a big deal and even in the best of circumstances any payday is
counted at years in the future, not months or quarters.
• Next the 60/40 JV with BTO on Magnolia is potentially promising, but it’s also a cash
drain in the near term. This is project and exploration risk, simple and classic.
3

• Next the $10m in cash payments from KCA for Tambor, that in my humble opinion is
worth zero in today’s scenario. RDU did very well to offload that controversial project to
its previous 50/50 partner last year as the social and community protests against the
mine, not to mention the lack of movement on legislation in Guatemala, mean we
should write down on this potential source of revenue rather than expect anything from
it (which leaves the small possibility of being pleasantly surprised down the line, rather
than expecting anything and ending with the strong possibility of being disappointed).
• The Guatemala Geotherm? Don’t hold your breath. That scores a zero, folks.
• JV with FVI in Mexico: That’s worth $300,000 (half cash, half FVI shares) over the next
two years, after which RDU will own 40% of the Tlacolula property and will be required
to fund pro-rata. Now again, I’m not knocking $300k but at the same time this is not a
share price mover.
• Focus and Rackla: Latest data indicates RDU owns 1.007m shares of Focus Ventues
(FCV.v) and 9.866m shares of Rackla (RAK.v). Radius also owns 7.176m warrants of
Rackla, but unless something startling happens to the company those are going to end
up worthless, so I’m putting a fat zero next to those. At Friday’s close those RAK and
FCV shares are worth a total of $778k (and bits), or under a 0.9c/share if you prefer.
To sum up, for me the liquid assets at RDU are worth 20c per share today but as for the other
non-liquid assets, I can only assign at best 2c/share basically covered by the shares in RAK and
FCV held, plus the cash that will slowly flow from the FVI JV over the next two years. Argue
with me about the others if you prefer, but in this market and considering each item’s
circumstances (plus the desire to remain conservative at all times) they offer no value at
present to my eyes. However, when it comes down to it we have a company that’s “worth” 22c
per share right now and is being offered at 17c, which is still not a bad deal
There is another downside component to consider though, the background burn rate at RDU
which fluctuates at or around $100,000 per month when the company isn’t doing much (for
example, at the moment). That’s pretty parsimonious and allows RDU to keep its powder good
and dry when things aren’t so great, but it’s still roughly 1.4c per year. If we’re trying to put a
valuation on today’s RDU I think it’s reasonable to discount one year of background burn, so
round that to a penny and a half and that puts us at 20.5c “value target” for . Apart from this
though, fundamentally speaking I see no reason why RDU cannot trade at a share price some
20% higher than its current level. And for a bit of numerical and statistical backbone for all that
narrative here below are four charts that help put numbers on what RDU has done recently,
with the BTO deal cash flowing into the company showing clearly in the last couple of quarters.
30 RDU.v: Assets Breakdown per qtr
25
20
15
10
5
0
4
60q4 70q1 70q2 70q3 70q4 80q1 80q2 80q3 80q4 90q1 90q2 90q3 90q4 01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 tse21q4 won
source: RDU, IKN ests 4q12/now
srallod
fo
snoillim
RDU.v: Debt Breakdown per qtr
2
fixed
1.8 other current
cash 1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
60q4 70q1 70q2 70q3 70q4 80q1 80q2 80q3 80q4 90q1 90q2 90q3 90q4 01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 tse21q4 won
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT debt
current debt

Along with the low liabilities levels and the current lack of movement on exploration projects
(stymied by the permitting impasse in Guatemala, but frankly that might be a blessing in
disguise) it’s a time when we can run a fairly straight-edged ruler over the state of finances at
this company. In fact the company seems to admit this as well, with exhibit A the new
corporate presentation entitled (4) “a company in transition”.
25 RDU.v: Working Capital per qtr RDU.v: Estimated asset value per share
$/share est fixed assets
20 0.30 liquid assets minus liabilities (working cap)
0.25
15
0.20
10
0.15
5
0.10
0 0.05
0.00
3q12 4q12est now est 2q13est 3q13est 4q13est
soruce: IKN ests
Which all begs the question: Why isn’t RDU trading at 20.5c or 22c? Why is the market so keen
on trading it at 17c?
Radius is not alone
We’ve made a case study of RDU today, but it’s by far from the only example of a small
company that has more than enough tangible assets to fully back its own market valuation.
Here are just a couple more for your consideration, but there are plenty more where these
came from.
1) At the beginning of the year we highlighted the case of Fancamp (FNC.v), which made it to
The Lottery Ticket Basket precisely because of its underlying asset value.
• Today’s FNC market cap: $12.1m
• FNC hold 15m shares of CHM.to, current share price 35.5c, market value $5.325m
• FNC holds 9m shares RGX.v, current share price $1.31, market value $11.79m
• Total marketable value of shares held by FNC.v: $17.115m
Or in cash per share terms, FNC.v is an 11c stock with 15.5c per share in marketables, all that
aside from its own projects.
2) Another easy to reach example is Benton Resources (BEX.v), which made clear as recently as
last Friday (5) that after the recent liquidation of its shares of Stillwater (SWC) it has 17.4c per
share of cash-plus-marketables, which compares to a share price of 14c as at Friday’s close.
Conclusion: Value in a bearish market
A principal curse of the fundamental analyst (your author no exception) is the so-called “value
trap”, that stock you buy because it offers apparent value (to peers, to the market, in the case
of stocks covered by IKN its underlying metal, etc). The stock then proceeds to drop more, to
which the cry from the fundies person is “Was good value! Now great value! Buy more!” but
there’s still nothing to stop that company from dumping even further if the market is a bearish
one and it matters not if nothing bad happens to your specific stock. People, I wish it weren’t
the case but the fact is that I’ve fallen for this trap too many times for my own good and the
bottom line problem of the value trap is confusing what’s truly there with what you subjectively
think is there.
I wish I knew who first coined the phrase as it’s one of my favourites, but company equity has
been famously described as “that sliver of hope that lies between assets and liabilities on a
5
60q4 70q1 70q2 70q3 70q4 80q1 80q2 80q3 80q4 90q1 90q2 90q3 90q4 01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 tse21q4 won
source company filings, IKN ests 4q12/now
srallod
fo
snoillim

balance sheet”, as good a definition of what equity is as I’ve ever seen. If a company has 1m
shares, assets of $2m, liabilities of $1m, does nothing and has no money either coming in or
going out, then as long as the assets can be liquidated for their apparent true value (e.g. you
sell that $500k office unit it owns for $500k) it makes sense that each tiny portion of the equity,
those one million shares, is worth $1. That’s the simple version of affairs, which makes the
theory clear but is then complicated by the factors that come under the “sliver of hope” phrase.
They include operations, whether its product is in demand (or not), whether the company
makes a profit or a loss, what financial benefits or drags the company has, whether the
company is growing and has a bright future, whether its fixed assets might be overvalued on its
books (ask Anglo, Kinross, Barrick, Rio Tinto all about that), those and plenty more. But it can
all be narrowed down to two headings:
What a company has
This is the more objective, hard-number part of share price valuation. Quite simply you look
at the company assets, look at its liabilities, take one from the other and you’re left with a
number. There is often some subjectivity in the margin about line item valuations (i.e. one
person might disagree with another about how much that truck is worth) but as long as
reasonable assumptions are used, this part of company valuation is normally pretty
objective.
What a company (or the person analysing the company) thinks it has
Meanwhile, this is where things get really really subjective and why one person will place a
net asset value for company that’s very different from another person’s estimate (for
example, two analysts). These are the judgement calls and sometime you get them right,
sometimes you get them wrong.
When it comes to identifying value it’s important to know what you’re looking at. Now,
sometimes I get them right and sometimes I get them wrong, but in virtually every single case
of “value trap” I’ve found myself in over the years my mistakes stem from the second category
rather than the first.
• “If the politicians just see a bit of sense and do the plainly obvious logical thing, then
this stock will double from here”. Error
• “The market is giving this company an inadequate 5X PE ratio, when its peers get 8X
and the only reason for this is that it only produces 50,000 oz gold a year, not 100,000
oz. Once people see the value in a profitable gold mining company. No matter what its
size is, then that PE is bound to rise.” Error
• “Cash costs won’t rise so much.” Error
• “The capex figure being used by the company in its modelling looks lower compared to
peers, but that’s justifiable considering its advantageous circumstances.” Error
We could continue, but to get to the point there are some times when the value call depends
more on what might be and other times when it
depends on what is. Now we return to the case
of RDU and its valuation, which is more solidly
built on the first “what the company has”
category rather than what it might achieve with
the next drill hole in Lord-Knows-Where-Next,
Central America. If logical and conservative
mathematical valuation shows pretty clearly
that its current share price and therefore
market valuation is lower than what it owns as
a company, then the reason for the
undervaluing of RDU (and any number of other
6

companies in the same position) lies elsewhere. In the case of other tinycaps it might be
because they’re run by idiots who are just waiting for the next opportunity to waste cash on a
piece of moose pasture, but as that’s not the case with the reputably run and long-lasting RDU
the likely reason is general market sentiment, something that changes from one period to the
next.
I don’t own currently own the stock, but there are a lot worse trades out there than RDU at
17c, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you DL for your mail.
Stocks to Follow
The 14 positions open last week all went down in price, every single one of them, which means
we had 13 losers (not listing them all) and just one positive weekly results from our short on
Gold Resource Corp (GORO). The worst percentage displays came from Plata Latina (PLA.v
down 22.2%), AQM Copper (AQM.v down 16.7%), Aurcana Corp (AUN.v down 14.5%), United
Silver Corp (USC.to down 14.3%) and Lachlan Star (LSA.to down 14.0%), though particularly
painful moneywise for your author’s portfolio were the drops in B2Gold (BTO.to down 8.2%)
and Rio Alto (RIO.to down 5.0%). However, apart from the slight heading benefit via GORO
there was really no escape from the pain anywhere in the list.
With the addition of the small and near-term Marlin Gold (MLN.v) trade, plus the sale of Lachlan
Star (LSA.to), we currently have 14 open positions, one less than our self-imposed maximum.
Of those four are in the green and ten in the red.
Company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
Top Picks
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to buy C$2.04 07-apr-11 C$4.98 144.1% $6.29 tgt
B2Gold BTO.to buy C$3.51 28-nov-12 C$3.26 -7.1% $5.70 tgt 3rd buy Feb'13
Recommends
Minera IRL IRL.to buy C$0.73 22-jul-12 C$0.71 -2.7% $1.56 tg, added, new avg
Aurcana Corp AUN.v buy C$1.07 11-nov-12 C$0.71 -33.6% $1.50 tgt near term play
OceanaGold OGC.to buy C$3.03 16-sep-12 C$2.64 -12.9% $5.34 tgt growth prod
Lara Expl. LRA.v hold C$1.15 08-apr-12 C$1.17 1.7% solid biz model, LT hold
Plata Latina PLA.v hold C$0.79 10-apr-12 C$0.35 -55.7% considering sale
Lupaka Gold LPK.to spec buy C$1.12 23-oct-11 C$0.38 -66.1% holding
IMPACT Silver IPT.v buy C$1.14 13-jan-13 C$1.07 -6.1% new position, $1.85 tgt
Gold Res Corp GORO short U$14.11 25-jan-13 U$13.30 5.7% short, $9.60 tgt
Smaller/Riskier
AQM Copper AQM.v hold C$0.31 16-oct-11 C$0.075 -75.8% holding thru for my sins
Focus Ventures FCV.v hold C$0.175 01-jul-12 C$0.185 5.7% revised tgt 25c
United Silver USC.to hold C$0.21 28-oct-12 C$0.12 -42.9% 60c tgt, avg down Dec'12
Marlin Gold MLN.v hold C$0.075 10-feb-13 C$0.07 -6.7% small, new, near term
Closed in 2013
USA Graphite USGT feb'13 U$0.93 08-jan-13 U$0.17 81.7% tgt made, trade closed
Lachlan Star LSA.to feb'13 C$1.50 30-sep-12 C$0.95 -36.7% sold to reduce port risk
2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 closed positions in appendices below
Now for some notes on a selection of the above stocks.
Marlin Gold (MLN.v): Position opened. As things turned out there was all the 7.5c I could
have wished for early in the week, so the small and near-term trade that was explained in
Fundamentals... last week was duly opened. And as things turned out MLN dumped with the
7

rest of them into the accelerated sell-off later week and finished well down on my entry point.
I will repeat this until blue in the face if necessary, but this MLN position is 1) small and 2) with
a strictly limited time duration. It has until end April latest, win or loss.
Lachlan Star: Position closed. As per the Flash update Friday (see appendix 1) this position
is now off the boards. However please note that I only sold one portion of my position and in
this case I will eventually alter the currently stated 95c closing price once the whole position is
gone (be that move up or down). Friday saw LSA dive sharply on low volume (oh what a
coincidence) once the Flash update came out and I’ll leave the sell-at-any-price to you guys,
not my problem.
Please see ‘Market Watching’ below for a brief summary of the company’s 4q12 financial
results.
B2Gold (BTO.to): Position added. As per the Flash update Friday (see appendix 1) I got
some cheaper stock (sub $3.20) to add to the now large Top Pick investment in BTO, with the
cost average now down to $3.51 as a result. It would be possible to add some more, but the
way things are looking in the market it isn’t my wont to get too aggressive and tap into the
cash cushion, so this is going to be about it for the time being, for me at least.
Meanwhile, on watching fallout from the protest by small-scale miners at the BTO Libertad mine
in Nicaragua last weekend (see IKN197 for the details) the interesting thing has been to see
just how much the State favours BTO over the protesters in this case. This report (6) tells of
how the judiciary filed blanket charges against the 37 people arrested and brought before the
courts (12 are being held in prison, another 16 are being held in hospitals due to injuries) the
charges all stating that 33 police officers on duty at the time were their victims. Aside the fact
that police riot squads are formed for a precise reason, according to the legal defence of the
protesters blanket charges against groups of people are inadmissible in Nicaraguan courts, but
this hasn’t stopped such charges from being made and the courts accepting them. Public
perception in Nica is that Daniel Ortega is a strong supporter of the BTO mining operations
(he’s even rumoured to be a shareholder ) and due to this BTO gets all the love.
Plata Latina (PLA.v): At the thinly traded end of the market. PLA got hammered down 10c,
the whole of its 22.2% loss for the week, by a single 30k trade early Friday morning that
presumably came from some person or some insto with the intention of getting out at any
price. There was a lot of that sentiment about on Friday morning, but unlike stocks that have a
decently liquid market, PLA was hit and stayed down (note the bid/ask stayed at 35c/45c all
day, you can drive a truck through that). There are those that might fret on technical chart
damage due to this (honestly, people do, don’t laugh) but this big percentage loss isn’t at all
worrying, certainly less so than the stock’s deterioration from our 79c average buy level to the
current price deck.
In real news (7) PLA closed its 40c private placement offering on Tuesday, having sold 8.245m
units (1 unit = 1 share + ½ warrant priced at 65c), which raised gross proceeds of just under
$3.3m and means PLA has the cash it needs for FY13’s activities. By the way, we expect news
at PDAC from this company regarding its deep drilling campaign.
Minera IRL (IRL.to): Positive news from IRL Wednesday when the company announced (8)
that the 1.2km long Ollachea access tunnel had been completed, ahead of schedule and under
budget thanks in part to better than anticipated rock conditions in the last part of the tunnelling
process. The other bonus is that IRL reports less underground water flow than expected, which
for one thing helped conditions while the tunnelling was happening but more interesting, is
reported to be good news for the mine once it starts operations as it means lower operating
costs. All details in the NR, we’ll stick to commenting that this is the type of major positive that
nearly always gets overlooked by a market that goes, “Well that’s what you were supposed to
do, isn’t it?” back at the company.
8

I’m meeting up with IRL tomorrow Monday, so expect news next weekend.
Aurcana Corp (AUN.v): We had three NRs from AUN last week. The first Monday (9) which
told of exploration sampling results from around the Mexico La Negra mine ops that have found
fairly decent gold numbers. This one should be classed as a moderate positive that may turn
out to add to the company bottom line somewhere in the medium-term future.
Then came Tuesday’s NR (10) which announced the arrival of a new member of the board, one
Arthur Ditto, a retired miner with an impressive CV.
Then came the NR Thursday as AUN has apparently decided to run a share rollback on an 8-to-
1 basis (11) about which AUN CEO Lenic Rodriguez said, “This is an important step in
Aurcana''s strategic efforts to become a senior silver producer.”
No, it isn’t. First up, although the proposal comes with the normal spiel of “with a higher share
price larger instos can buy our stock, qualify for a NYSE listing, life is beautiful” and as is always
the case it makes not one ounce of difference to the company fundamentals. This is a style
over substance move that really irks me at this point in the company’s development, not just for
the legal fees AUN with entail during the move: This company should be concentrating on
adding real value via excellence in operations, not dicking around with cosmetic adjustments.
AUN will not suddenly become attractive to instos and funds with a price limit on purchases
unless it becomes a successful mining operator, period. If AUN wants to run a shop window
move, it needs to have quality goods on show behind the window before, not afterwards, and if
its management team is more worried about its share price image than getting the operations
running correctly, they do not inspire the type of confidence required to make it in the hard
world of mining rock for a profit (and for your information, on re-reading this passage I edited
out two swear words).
As for the market action, AUN got a real good kicking on Friday and it pains me to say that it
may well have deserved it after that Thursday NR. As I ran the LSA December quarter I found
myself thinking long and hard about AUN and whether I should bail on this one instead of, or as
well as, Lachlan. In the end the decision was to stick with the plan of giving AUN its 1q13 in
order to show its potential, but be clear that this one is the next on the chopping block if it
doesn’t shape up. I’ll take an embarrassing loss if need be here, darnit.
OceanaGold (OGC.to): We do OGC below, but will say here that the Canada market action
Friday in OGC was particularly disappointing, as the overnight trading in Oz was positive after a
strong December quarter results and ConfCall from the company Thursday afternoon (Friday
morning pre-bell Australia time). Even with the wholesale sell-off I thought that OGC would be
able to hang in there with the numbers it had posted along with good guidance, but it was not
to be.
Lupaka Gold (LPK.to): We can confirm that LPK’s application to list on the Peruvian stock
exchange (BVL) is now underway, with this a copy of the full application with local brokerage
Kallpa Securities the sponsor (12) (if umpteen pages of Spanish language legalese is your thing,
then you’ll certainly enjoy that link). This is the reason we’re holding through on LPK for the
moment, with the hope (yeah seriously, I’m down to hope-based investment on this one) that
the listing will do for LPK what it did for LCY.v recently. Then we can get out at a better price.
Focus Ventures (FCV.v): I’m not going to get to hook up with company president David Cass
next week, as he arrives in Lima while I’m in the field and then he’s out in the field by the time
I get back. However I did exchange with him and news on the drilling program at the flagship
Santa Cruz/Reventon project in Mexico is...delays. What a surprise. And the delays are due to
governmental bureaucratic foot-dragging. What a surprise. But Cass also said that everything
on FCV’s side is in place and the government environmental people have visited the site and
given verbal approval for what they saw (that’s usually the time-consumer) so the day after the
9

now pretty straightforward paperwork is signed off by the relevant pen the company will be
drilling (apparently, the changeover to the Peña Nieto admin hasn’t helped at all, with people
leaving and new people arriving in government posts at a regional level). With a little luck FCV
can tell PDAC that the drills are turning, but that underscores the type of delay the company
has seen because the original plan was to be delivering first results from the drilling program to
the PDAC audience. Such are the pleasures of working in LatAm.
In other news, FCV announced Friday evening (13) (yes, the dreaded Friday PM news release)
that it had to correct a couple of very minor data things in its previous publications after a
review by the BCSC. I know that some people gripe about these reviews and wonder why the
BCSC is fluffing around with minor errors in presentations and company materials according to
the rules, but I quite like them all. In the case of FCV, the adjustments were so insignificant
that it’s virtually a pass mark and a positive that it has to announce its corrections. Meanwhile
in more interesting news FCV has a new corporate presentation up on its website, which you
can find at link (14) below. The section on the Aurora copper project in Cusco region Peru is
particularly enlightening and gives a good overview of what’s known, as well as the expansion
potential that FCV sees for the project. And for those of you who’d like more technical
information on Aurora, this FCV page (15) shows sections that help get a handle on the size
potential (even to your author’s untrained geology eye the potential is pretty clear, the trick
now will be to turn that potential into something real). Back to the presentation and the other
takeaway was the company treasury position that stands at $2m to $2.5m. Cass informs this
cash is more than enough to see FCV well past the Santa Cruz/Reventon drill campaign.
The Copper Basket
After seven weeks of 2013 The Copper Basket is showing a 4.35% profit to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/13 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Resources NGQ.to 3.40 158.5 526.22 3.32 -2.4%
2 Lumina Copper LCC.v 9.43 43.46 399.83 9.20 -2.4%
3 Augusta Res AZC.to 2.43 144.1 393.39 2.73 12.3%
4 Copper Fox CUU.v 0.83 397.65 318.12 0.80 -3.6%
5 Nevada Copper NCU.to 3.50 80.5 301.88 3.75 7.1%
6 Hot Chili Ltd HCH.ax 0.72 286.78 215.09 0.75 4.2%
7 Western Copper WRN.to 1.39 93.78 117.23 1.25 -10.1%
8 NovaCopper NCQ.to 1.80 52.77 104.48 1.98 10.0%
9 Panoro Minerals PML.v 0.62 176.25 102.23 0.58 -6.5%
10 Reservoir Min. RMC.v 2.41 41.46 100.75 2.43 0.8%
11 Curis Resources CUV.to 0.70 56.31 61.38 1.09 55.7%
12 Candente Copper DNT.to 0.375 121.93 58.53 0.48 28.0%
13 Oracle Mining OMN.to 0.80 49.03 42.66 0.87 8.7%
14 Yellowhead Min. YMI.to 0.59 60.97 35.36 0.58 -1.7%
15 Strait Minerals SRD.v 0.08 56.86 2.84 0.05 -37.5%
NB: HCH.ax priced in AUD$, rest CAD$ Portfolio avg 4.35%
Seven point zero five percent was hacked away from the basket average gains last week,
making week seven the worst of the year so far for the Copper Basket. Just three of our Basket
components made gains (CUU.v, HAH.ax, NCG.to) with the other 12 all showing losses (no
need to list them all, Sherlocks). No big winners but several big percentage losers to report,
including Strait Minerals (SRD.v down 23.1%), Candente Copper (DNT.to down 15.8%),
Yellowhead Mining (YMI.to down 12.1%) and Oracle Mining (OMN.to down 12.1%). When the
10

dust had settled, it meant that The Copper Basket is back at the level last seen in the first week
of 2013.
Copper Basket 2013 average, weekly
14%
However, the price of the underlying metal 12%
was not to blame for the sector weakness,
10%
as this price chart shows. Trading was
8%
reportedly thin during last week’s Chinese
6%
New Year holiday, which was always to be
4%
expected.
2%
0%
jan6th 13th 20th 27th feb3r 10th 17th
source: IKN calcs, TSX data
So what with the dumpage in gold and copper hanging tough, here’s a bonus chart for today,
that of the gold/copper ratio. We’re now
at or close to the ratio levels seen just
after gold’s big upmove in August 2011,
along with the lows seen during the worst
of the slump last year, in the April/May
2012 period. Those of you with a
technicals bent may see a reversal point
coming our way, you may even be able to
work out the potential percentage gains. I
don’t know, personally I’ll go with “gold
looks relatively cheap right now” and be
done.
Moving to inventories, which hardly
moved on the week on the worldwide
scale, up just 0.3% to 666,133mt. LME
inventories were up 0.5% (401,675mt),
Shanghai didn’t move an inch due to the
Chinese New Year holiday and Comex up
0.2% (67,579mt). As for LME cancelled
11
31/1/1
morf
egnahc
%

warrants, they dropped once again to 7.56% of total holdings. On that subject, reader SL wrote
in with this:
“Mind further explaining me what does 'cancelled warrants' (under the LME
copper section) mean, and its application? Thx”.
That’s a fair question, so here are a bullet point or three to try and explain
• The term “warrant” in the LME is a contract to buy an amount of metal (in the case of
copper, one warrant covers 20 metric tonnes). We could go further and explain that the
word warrant has a specific meaning in British English and its origins pertain to a
collateralized debt but that doesn’t really matter, all we need to know is that it’s the
name used for an LME contract.
• It’s estimated that over time only 1% of the copper warrants traded through the LME
are ever bought in order to take final end-user delivery. The vast majority of the trades,
the warrants, executed are for either speculative (traders trying to make a buck) or
hedging (producers securing a price for physical delivery of copper that never comes
close to an LME warehouse) purposes. However, a small percentage of trades do end
up by seeing copper held at LME warehouses bought and physically delivered to end-
user clients.
• By the same token, only a small percentage of world copper production ever ends up in
a bonded warehouse (be it LME, Shanghai or Comex). Consider the rough example of
current world warehouse inventories at 600,000mt for the past year and the total world
demand for copper that’s a number which revolves around 20 million metric tonnes.
However, the bonded warehouses are sometimes used by producers when they have
excess production (i.e. demand isn’t so great).
• Meanwhile and back to LME warrants, traders are not allowed to trade copper that
doesn’t exist in one of the LME bonded warehouses. In fact, trades are only allowed on
what’s termed “open tonnage” copper that’s open for trading because it hasn’t been
definitively bought by any given person. This is the opposite to “cancelled tonnage”,
namely copper that’s still being held in LME warehouses on which trades are no
permitted.
• This gives rise to the term “cancelled warrant”. This means a warrant that has been
bought and settled (i.e. held to maturity) which implies that the person holding the
cancelled warrant will arrange to move it out of the LME bonded warehouse and to its
end use. In fact this isn’t always the case, as the holder of a cancelled warrant can
decide to reissue a warrant on the amount of copper and trun it into open tonnage
once again. There are other ways that, theoretically at least, traders can game the
cancelled warrants tonnage and make it look as though more or less tonnes of metal
are about to move in or out of LME warehouses (a strategy occasionally used to gain a
trading advantage) but again over time the level of cancelled warrants is understood as
an indication of how much demand there is from end users for the metal.
• Therefore (and we finally get to the point) when the ratio of cancelled warrants to open
warrants, which is exactly what we track on that weekly chart, is high it suggests that
the copper held in LME warehouses is under stronger than normal end user demand
and is usually taken as a bullish signal by the market. Equally, when the ratio of
cancelled warrants is low as it’s been in recent weeks, it’s usually understood to be a
bearish indicator for future price action, as it forecasts soft end user demand.
And that’s why we track cancelled warrants, SL.
12

Cancelled Warrants at LME, IKN157 to date
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
13
751NKI 851NKI 951NKI 061NKI 161NKI 261NKI 361NKI 461NKI 561NKI 661NKI 761NKI 861NKI 961NKI 071NKI 171NKI 271NKI 371NKI 471NKI 571NKI 671NKI 771NKI 871NKI 971NKI 081NKI 181NKI 281NKI 381NKI 481NKI 581NKI 681NKI 781NKI 881NKI 981NKI 091NKI 191NKI 291NKI 391NKI 491NKI 591NKI 691NKI 791NKI 891NKI
source: Cochilco, LME
rof
yrotnevni
EML
%
latot
yreviled
resu-dne
Now for updates on three of the basket stocks:
Nevada Copper (NCU.to): Friday was the day for news from NCU, when the company again
put its best foot forward and told (16) of the progress being made in the permitting process.
The bipartisan bill that needs to pass through the US Congress (we covered it several times in
2012) has been re-submitted and the relevant noises by company, sponsors and all made for
positive reading. No, I’m not being in any way ironic here, this is one of those (few) occasions
when I read an NR and feel generally confident about its company-friendly content. Unlike
other copper projects in the US (Rosemont and Florence to name but two) it’s been apparent
for some time that the majority public opinion in the Pumpkin Hollow locality, starting with the
town of Yerington nearby, is in favour of this project going ahead and becoming a mine given
the correct social and environmental balances and work was in place. NCU has been diligent in
its work and there seems to be every reason to expect permitting to been approved by the
congressional system eventually. Therein lies the rub, because the potential danger to Pumpkin
Hollow’s permitting track lies in delays and potential extra earmarks added to the bill in order to
push it through.
Reaction to Friday’s NR was muted, perhaps by the general horribleness of that market day but
even though traded volumes were low NCU stock bucked the trend and finished higher that day
(by 7c to $3.75).
NovaCopper (NCQ.to): Two bits of news last week from NCQ, with Monday bringing (8)
news of the filing of NCQ’s updated 43-101 resource report for its Ambler district project.
Combining the Arctic and Bornite Zones , NCQ now has 5.9Bn lbs Cu (all categories, with plenty
of that still inferred) as a 43-101 resource, all at very high grading copper and plenty of credit
metals to boot.
Then on Tuesday (17) NCQ reported its 4q12 and year end financials (NCQ’s year ends
November 30th) and no surprises in the numbers. Working capital stood at $21.2m (cash
treasury $22.2m, no liquidity problems here) and the company states that’s enough for the next
12 months. I’d call that a maybe personally, as this chart maps out our forecast working capital
(basically burn rate) for the next three quarters. As it’s now winter in the frosty North we’d
expect burn to drop until the snows are mostly gone and the more expensive types of
exploration and project development are re-started so the current quarter (to end Feb’13) is
forecast as a light spend. However, come end 3q13 (August 31st) our ballpark model points to a
working capital of around $5m, which is likely to be a little too low for comfort for this
company’s management. NCQ says in its MD&A that it expects to run an equity financing at
some point 12 to 18 months from now; put me down for 9 to 15 months.

U$m NCQ: Working capital
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1q12 2q12 3q12 4q12 1q13est 2q13est 3q13est
source: NCQ filings, IKN ests FY13 (assuming no financing)
I have one more thing to say on NCQ today: As regulars over at the blog will testify, I’ve never
been a fan of NCQ’s parent company NovaGold (NG) and to this day consider it at best not
much more than a call option on gold for those who can lock up large amount of money for
large amounts of time (Messrs Paulson, Kaplan come immediately to mind). On a more cynical
day you’ll find me calling it alongside Seabridge (SA) as one of the world’s more expensive
geological anomalies. My negatives on NG have also been directed at its ex-CEO Rick Van
Nieuwenhuyse (RVN) and the team he built around him there, as the company was often very
long on the promo hype but short on the delivery, with that infamous 2007 Galore Creek cost
overrun exhibit A in the way this company was badly run; the $2Bn capex project was suddenly
a $5Bn capex project, partner ABX got cold feet and NG was very close to going under as part
of the fallout (Jack Caldwell’s ‘I Think Mining’ blog has some anecdotal, strong and largely
correct views on that episode at the time, worth a rummage through Google if you’d like to
know more). All that and insider selling patterns that left an awful lot to be desired.
Cut to 2013 and RVN, moved on from NG, is now the CEO of our very own NovaCopper. This
has given me pause and in fact it’s one of the reasons NCQ made it to The Copper Basket this
year, as it gives me no excuses to ignore the stock and means I watch with more than one
jaded eye on what it’s doing. And here’s the thing I want to say about NCQ: I’m pleasantly
surprised, I’d go as far as to say impressed, by the level of disclosure shown by the company in
its filings. Take for example the company year-end MD&A, which is an exemplary document of
disclosure and goes into far more detail than is required by the markets about its financial and
operational activities, as well as being written in a plain English prose that’s simple to
understand. Also, there’s a basic difference between NCQ and its parent, which is one of grade.
While NG’s deposits are low grading (sometimes with refractory problems to boot) and need
those extremely out-of-fashion high tonnage high capex machines built to make them work
(and even then economics are less than sparkling), NCQ at Ambler is very much at the other
end of the spectrum when it comes to grade. Peruse the resource tables at your own leisure,
but when you’re playing with 1.0% copper cut-offs you know we’re talking high grading rock.
NCQ isn’t NG, it’s a different and better animal rockwise and I’m cautiously warming to the
management attitude as well. In a world that’s looking to reward high grading deposits in safe
perceived political risk areas, this is a company I’m going to be watching more carefully in the
future; thank the FY12 YE MD&A for that as much as anything else. Good report.
Curis Resources (CUV.to): Tuesday brought the delivery of the anticipated pre-feas for
CUV’s Florence project in Arizona, USA (18). Also as expected the economics are shown to be
very robust, with a 7.5% discounted NPV of $748m, a post-tax IRR of 31%, capital payback at
just 2.9 years and a 25 year mine life. However the bit that particularly caught my attention
was that CUV plans the first 13 years on the State owned land on which it has secured
operating rights already, thus helping to de-risk the project from its local opponents and
protesters. CUV spiked and peaked on this news but did see selling as the week went on, pretty
much in line with broader market sentiment.
14

The economics and revenue potential of CUV at Florence was not and is not under question by
your author. This whole ballgame is a permitting play so if CUV can get all the permits it needs,
it’s an obvious buy. Until that moment your betting on the outcome of the courtrooms in
Arizona.
The Lottery Ticket Basket
After seven weeks of 2013 The Lottery Ticket Basket is showing a 12.39% gain to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/13 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Eagle Star Min. EGE.v 0.125 69.48 23.62 0.340 172.0%
2 Marlin Gold MLN.v 0.10 192.39 13.47 0.070 -30.0%
3 Glass Earth GEL.v 0.155 104.79 13.10 0.125 -19.4%
4 Bellhaven BHV.v 0.14 121.16 12.12 0.100 -28.6%
5 Fancamp Expl. FNC.v 0.125 109.8 12.08 0.110 -12.0%
6 AQM Copper AQM.v 0.08 105.57 7.92 0.075 -6.3%
7 Copper North COL.v 0.10 58.62 7.62 0.130 30.0%
8 Gryphon Gold GGN.to 0.085 194.64 6.81 0.035 -58.8%
9 Rio Cristal RCZ.v 0.025 149.26 5.22 0.035 40.0%
10 Darwin Resources DAR.v 0.20 26.16 4.58 0.175 -12.5%
11 FDG Mining FDG.v 0.13 45.59 4.33 0.095 -26.9%
12 Cream Minerals CMA.v 0.03 155.34 3.88 0.025 -16.7%
13 Firestone Ventures FV.v 0.045 36.32 3.27 0.090 100.0%
14 Inca One Res. IO.v 0.12 34.0 3.06 0.090 -25.0%
15 Netco Silver NEI.v 0.025 47.01 2.12 0.045 80.0%
Portfolio avg 12.39%
Four of our basket stocks managed to make gains in the tough climate of last week (EGE.v,
COL.v, DAR.v, NEI.v), which was more than I expected. The other eleven lost ground, including
bigger downmoves registered in Rio Cristal (RCZ.v down 36.4%), Inca One (IO.v down 18.2%)
and then weirdly four stocks that all lost 16.666% on the week (BHV.v, GEL.v, AQM.v, CMA.v).
The basket’s big success story continues to be Eagle Star (EGE.v), which flew as high as 40c
and 42c on Wednesday and Thursday before coming back to earth a little. We’re happy for that
company and tall those who sail in here, but as EGE.v now accounts for nearly 12% of the total
12.39% basket gain it’s slightly skewing our overall basket representativity (dat a word?).
More generally, for the first time since starting this 2013 experimental section I had the feeling
15

that it was a worthwhile exercise last week. As Wednesday got worse into Thursday and plain
bad Friday, watching how these cheap and thinly traded stocks got chopped down hard in
percentage terms, all at the same time and all on the same kind of smallfry “get me out” sales
generated by a handful of people at best, it was a good indication of the feeling of capitulation
that was out there. I’m beginning to like this basket after all.
Bellhaven Copper & Gold (BHV.v): Friday saw BHV announce (19) a non-brokered private
placement that looks to sell 14,782,609 units priced at 11.5c (1 unit = share + ½ warrant
priced at 15c) in order ot raise gross
proceeds of $1.7m. The market’s reaction to
this news was, sadly, the one you’d expect
for a microcap penny play that’s trying to
raise capital from a position of weakness in
an unforgiving market:
I have no special inside info on this, but as
the placement is non-brokered and there’s
apparently a finder already set up here, BHV
may have already got its guarantees that the
placement will go through at this price as
expected. However, the action Friday has the
look of a a market pressuring that might
force BHV to re-price the deal in order to
close it successfully. Time will tell, but it’s not going to be a big shock if the eventual placement
is done for 17m units at 10c, rather than the above terms.
Darwin Resources (DAR.v): I’m looking forward to seeing DAR’s Suriloma property, up close
and personal, next week and expect a full report on the site visit next Sunday in IKN199. Today
we note that DAR announced (20) last week it had come to a surface access agreement with
locals on the a specific area of its large Suriloma project, named “La Puerta”, which boils down
to enabling the company to be able to drill where it wants to drill in the first round of drilling,
expected to happen during 2q13.
Glass Earth Gold (GEL.v): The curse of the guru. When including GEL.v in our ‘Lottery Ticket
Basket’ list at the beginning of the year, one
of the reasons cited for the stock is that Brent
Cook likes the company. As it happens, last
Sunday Cook announced he was selling his
position, but even though he made it clear to
his readers that a) there was nothing wrong
with the stock b) there was no reason to sell
at any price and c) he’d take his time selling
during 2013 to exit in a respectable manner
the stock did what you can see in this 10 day
chart last Monday
People, we’ve had this conversation before.
There’s not much more to add to previous
comments on herd mentalities, bar that Cook’s
influence on a stock price is growing as the months roll into years and people realize that he’s a
very smart and level-headed commentator on stock prices, but that also means he’s going to
attract the knee-jerk (with or without the word “knee”) end of the market as well, so it’s the
classic double-edged sword. Some people’s opinions on stocks will always, always move prices
more than others: in the world of miners you have Dines, the world of short sellers you have
Einhorn, the world of art you have Saatchi, the list is endless and varied. It matters not whether
Cook wants to be a short-term influence on prices either; he’s gone the mediatic route and this
kind of thing comes with the territory. Anyway, GEL is now at a place where it might even be a
16

trading buy if you can get any of that generally available 11c again (the late Friday uptick has a
look of tape painting to me).
Regional politics
Ecuador’s Presidential election
Rafael Correa was re-elected today, we just have to wait for the final numbers to see by how
much (and for your information, I wrote that line on Saturday morning). However there is
reason to watch the vote results closely, as the more interesting race today is for the 137 seat
in the National Assembly. Correa made a point in the latter stages of his campaign to promote
the candidatures of his Alianza PAIS party and ask Ecuadoreans to give his party a working
majority in parliament.
Regarding mining, the Correa win is likely to be seen as a modest positive for the sector as he’s
made no bones about promoting his “pro-responsible mining” message and will likely try to
accelerate mining development in his second term. Due to this, if Alianza PAIS wins an overall
parliamentary majority it can be seen as a true positive for the sector’s chances of growing.
However, Ecuador should still be regarded as a basket case for mining and avoided, as the
same Correa who wants mining in the country is the one that slapped the onerous “minimum
51% to the State” burden on miners and has successfully scared away the serious exploration
companies. Also, any Correa victory (presidential and/or parliamentary) will not dilute the
strong anti-mining positions in specific rural areas that host potential projects, so any attempt
to push forward on controversial projects may turn out to be an invitation to social unrest more
than an invitation to new investment capital.
Update: The fast-count result tonight puts Correa at 56.72% of the popular vote and the
expected mile ahead of his nearest rival. No word on the parliamentary make-up yet.
Peru: Listing in Lima
In a world of junior mining companies searching, sometimes desperately, for new sources of
funding, this English language report (21) dated February 12th on the benefits and opportunities
that a listing on the Peruvian BVL stock exchange makes for interesting and informative
overview reading. The article covers many aspects of the relationship between mining
companies and the exchange so it’s not really fair to excerpt (the reco is to read the whole
article) but this segment did catch my eye, even though the report pays little respect to the real
CEO of Lara (LRA.v), Miles Thompson (Gauthier is however company president)
For André Gauthier, President & CEO of Lara Exploration and one of the promoters
of the creation of the junior segment of the BVL, the success of the exchange will
depend upon its ability to offer diversified investment prospects: “We need to get 40
juniors listed in Lima, in order to reach some critical mass that allows investors to
buy and sell more frequently. Everyone is investing in Rio Alto now, and no-one is
selling because there are not many alternatives locally. In Canada the problem is the
opposite, you have too many juniors, and there is lots of ‘pump and dump’”.
As the report points out in another segment, there are currently 17 juniors listed on the BVL
while another four mining companies have moved from the junior list onto the main board.
PDAC 2013: Mucho Latin America
Reader M kindly sent over this link (22) that has the line-up for the 2013 PDAC presentation
rooms. What strikes both M and your author is the amount of focus there is on Latin America
this year, with workshops, presentations and all sorts of features on the region’s countries and
what they can do for the mining world. Two slots, those of Nicaragua and Peru, particularly
catch the eye due to the quality of slated speakers (barring Romulo Mucho, who’s an idiot Peru
career politico that I have the displeasure of knowing personally).
17

Peru: Tia Maria coming back on the agenda
If you’re looking for the next high profile mining project likely to cause social unrest, Tia Maria
should now be high on your list. This massive copper project in the South coast region of Peru
was the centre of massed protests, that included clashes almost two years ago to the day that
saw two dead and the project put on ice. Even though local opposition to the project is still
strong, both owners Southern Copper (SCCO) and the Ollanta Humala government are keen to
start moving this project forward again and the latest is that the Environmental Impact Study
(EIA) has recently been re-submitted by SCCO for evaluation.
This report in Peru’s high circulation national La Republica this weekend (23) took the pulse of
the area around the proposed mine and found that although locals weren’t against the idea of
sitting down and negotiating, their current demands were pretty steep and included:
1) The current EIA should be rejected and a new study compiled, due to the many
problems and doubts that the old study contains (according to locals).
2) The Peru government should hold a local referendum to decide the project’s fate.
3) Any negotiation should involve the State at an active level as mediator between
company and population.
The third of those three is potentially viable but the first, a sort of vox pop that stops a
submitted technical study, is unlikely and the second simply isn’t going to happen. The hardcore
opposition to Tia Maria are local farmers and landowners, so we can expect the noise levels
about this project to increase towards the middle of this year, following the main local harvest
time. Work is made for idle hands, they say.
Market Watching
Lachlan Star (LSA.to) (LSA.ax) December quarter results
As part of our sell call on Lachlan Star (LSA.to) (LSA.ax) in Friday’s Flash update, we made
mention of the company’s Dec’12 financial results posted Thursday evening. The results came is
pretty much as anticipated and here’s a quick rundown of what we saw.
The bottom line figure from LSA wasn’t so pretty, as this comparative monthly chart makes
plain. The net loss posted of $4.55m is
the worst monthly seen by LSA, but this AUS$m LSA: Post tax net profit, per qtr
had already been telegraphed due to the 5
4
company undertaking the last of the
3
major pre-strip developments in order to
2
set itself up for profit in 2013 (see
1
IKN196 for more).
0
-1
Drilling down a little deeper, the reason -2
for the loss is shown more clearly here, -3
with operating expenses of $26.82m -4
sinking revenues from gold sales of -5
sep.10 dec.10 mar.11 jun.11 sep.11 dec.11 mar.12 jun.12 sep.12 dec.12
$21.62 by over $5m. The lion’s share of
source: LSA filings
that expenses column, more precisely
$23.77m, was made up of the company classic cash costs plus the pre-strip costs incurred
(again, see the charts in IKN196 for how the stripping costs are added and how they’re
expected to drop off sharply in 2013), with the rest coming from normal sized
depreciation/amortization and royalty charges.
18

LSA: gold sales vs total operating expenses, per qtr
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
19
01.pes 01.ced 11.ram 11.nuj 11.pes 11.ced 21.ram 21.nuj 21.pes 21.ced
AUS$m
revenues
total exp
source: LSA filings
As for the balance sheet, the overall looks very much in line as LSA added to its fixed asset
value (work on the pits, new plant)
LSA: Balance sheet items per qtr (in AUS$)
AUS$m
The one area in which LSA fell short compared 120
total assets
to expectations is seen here, in its cash 100 total liabilities
net assets
position. Even after adding nearly $6.3m in
80
cash via the exercising of 5.24m options
60
during the quarter (that took shares out to
40
91.62m), cash dropped by nearly $1m to
$7.49m. This goes a long way to explaining 20
why LSA wanted to take out the $10m credit 0
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n
s
e
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e
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ct
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,
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e
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o
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t
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was one of 2well, it’s there if we need it” this source: company filings
type of credit line is seldom arranged without
being used and smacks of a company that’s LSA cash position
not going to reach the type of profit 20
generation potential in the early part of 2013, 18
16
the way your author expected. As mentioned 14
in Friday’s Flash update, this was a secondary 12
10
part of the decision to lose LSA from the
8
‘Stocks to Follow’ list. 6
4
2
However (and as stated Friday) the main 0
reason to sell LSA isn’t company-specific and
more a call on the state of the market. By
transferring cash from the higher cash cost
LSA and into the lower cash cost, clearly
profitable, bigger and generally better regarding B2Gold (BTO.to) we pull in our risk profile by
so much and take into account that things aren’t going the way of the companies that enjoy the
highest leverage to the price of gold. LSA’s December quarter was in line and we weren’t
expecting a net profit as the company did its final deck clearing before going profitable in 2013.
But even with the expected lower strip rates, LSA’s cash cost will remain higher than that of
BTO, as well as being an altogether smaller operation. The call is to rationalize the portfolio and
take the opportunity to buy cheap stock in a company i like more, the Top Pick BTO.
OceanaGold (OGC.to) (OGC.ax) December quarter results
We had the quarterly financial results from OGC on Thursday as well as the company
Conference Call and I was suitably impressed. First the numbers which we’ll do via the usual
suspect charts and starting with operational results
When we last looked at OGC in IKN195, after it had announced its 4q12 production numbers,
our estimate for operating earnings went like this.
01.pes 01.ced 11.ram 11.nuj 11.pes 11.ced 21.ram 21.nuj 21.pes 21.ced
AUS$m
source: company filings

“Our operating earnings estimate is $34.5m, after which comes other
expenses (interest expenses, financial cost, forex) then tax.”
In fact OGC beat our forecast and reported op. earnings of $35.642m, which looks like this in a
comparative chart:
OGC.to: Op. Earnings per qtr
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
20
70q1 70q2 70q3 70q4 80q1 80q2 80q3 80q4 90q1 90q2 90q3 90q4 01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
As for net profit (slightly less interesting that
OGC.to: Quarterly Earnings overview
op- earnings in a growth story such as this, but 140
we still care for the bottom line) that was 120
$24.2m for the quarter. That’ll do nicely. Here’s 100
how revenues stacked up against COGS and 80
that operating earnings item seen in isolation in
60
the first chart, which puts the quarterly record
40
revenues of $123.77m into perspective. We
20
were expecting a decent number from revenues
0
thanks to the strong production quarter seen at
OGC’s New Zealand operations (all in IKN195, -20
not going over those again) but getting the
confirmation was good.
Now a little more about costs, seen in this
chart. Overall COGS were lower in 4q12 than
other months of the year, despite the higher
gold production (thanks to the higher
grades) but we note that
depreciation/amortization was a bigger
charge (the NZ mines with their short carried
life weigh on this item, plus the quarter was
one that mined higher grading zones of the
deposits at both Macraes and Reefton).
Turning to balance sheet items, we first note
the new share count at OGC, up to 293.52m after the placement ran in the last quarter
90q1 90q2 90q3 90q4 01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
revenues
COGS
Op. Earnings
OGC: Costs breakdown
$m
100 G&A
depr&amort
80 COGS
60
40
20
0
1q10 2q10 3q10 4q10 1q11 2q11 3q11 4q11 1q12 2q12 3q12 4q12
source: OGC filings

OGC.to: Shares Out
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
21
70q2 70q3 70q4 80q1 80q2 80q3 80q4 90q1 90q2 90q3 90q4 01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim
Assets have developed like this, with both fixed (up $49m) and current (up $92m) benefitting
from the commissioning of Didipio and the
OGC.to: Assets Breakdown per qtr
equity cash injection, as well as those strong
operating results returned from 4q12. 1100
1000
900
If we strip away the fixed asset component of 800
700
that above chart we get a better look at the
600
company liquidity level. Some of the cash 500
400
raised in the placement has been kept back in
300
treasury with the rest used to pay down long- 200
term debt. 100
0
Speaking of which, below right is the
development of the liabilities position at OGC.
Current debt is up to $199.4m as the final bills
come in for Didipio. The company remains
running a balancing act between liquidity and
debt and thanks to the strong operational
quarter has ensured liquidity is in good shape
as we move into the critical 2013 period and
the start of operations at Didipio, but liabilities
remain the company weak point, we make no
bones about that.
However, overall book value rose and even
after the share count dilution due the the
equity raise, the BV/share moved up 4c to
$1.90. This is a metric that we should watch
closely, as the expected success in 2013 with
Didipio coming fully online bringing higher
production at lower cash costs should raise
BV/share and as long as the market approves
of what it sees, the current 1.5X ratio of BV to
market price should be able to climb to the 2X
levels enjoyed by peers. With OGC’s plans
clearly marked at getting its debt levels down
in the quarters to come, watch the BV/share
for valuation purposes more than straight
bottom line results.
70q2 70q3 70q4 80q1 80q2 80q3 80q4 90q1 90q2 90q3 90q4 01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
fixed
other current
cash
OGC: Current Assets
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4
$m
other current
cash
source: company data
OGC.to: Debt Breakdown per qtr
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
70q2 70q3 70q4 80q1 80q2 80q3 80q4 90q1 90q2 90q3 90q4 01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 21q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT debt
current debt

OGC: Book value per share
2.4
2.2
2 1.81 1.77 1.82 1.88 1.86 1.90
1.8 1.67 1.69
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1q11 2q11 3q11 4q11 1q12 2q12 3q12 4q12
source: company filings, IKN calcs
Your author is happy with the way that the company financials came in for the quarter, but the
positives didn’t stop there. The OGC conference call was one of the better ones I’ve sat in on
recently (the presentation that went with the CC can be found on this link (24)) with plenty of
positives to take away. Firstly, the main good news is that after the temporary stoppage to fix a
teething glitch in the tailings system, Didipio is now back on line and in production. Things are
going better than expected on the ramp-
up as well, with commercial production
now due to be announced at some point
in 2q13 (nothing more specific than that
timeframe was offered, but remarks made
it clear that OGC is looking at the front
end of 2q13 rather than the back end).
Adding in the New Zealand ops, overall
guidance was set for the year at the very
gettable and previously noted ounce
numbers we see here in this table ripped
from the presentation.
The differences for OGC between FY12
and FY13 are on two fronts, first with
higher production (FY12 came in at 232k
oz Au), but secondly and more importantly a significantly lower cash cost. As FY12 was
$940/oz, even at the high end of the 2013 cash guidance and the low end of the production
guidance it would mean (assuming a flat gold price) extra revenue to the tune of $40m ($140 x
285k oz Au). If you fancy the optimistic end of the math that works out at $94.25m ($290 x
325k oz) but let’s take things one step at a time. The company also went into detail about its
expectations for Reefton and Macraes in New Zealand, noting that production guidances were
being set for the calendar year rather than giving any quarterly guidance, because due to the
nature of the mineral bodies it expected to mine lower grading areas and higher grading areas
in turn, which would make for quarterly fluctuations in production numbers. However, some
clue was given during the Q&A at the end, when management said that it expected slightly
better production figures from its NZ ops in the second half of 2013 compared to the first half.
The bottom line to OGC’s4q12 was that the production was good, OGC converted it as expected
into strong earnings and the guidance for the year we’re now in was positive. I was particularly
happy to hear about the re-start of ops at Didipio after that (apparently slight) glitch and as the
market showed in Australia that day, despite the sectorwide headwinds OGC.ax moved up well
on good volumes. Unfortunately, it then hit the big gold smackdown in the North America
timezone Friday and it all went to naught pricewise, but that doesn’t stop the OGC fundies from
being good. Your author is a happy holder of OceanaGold at these levels and reiterates the call
and target price on the stock.
22

Conclusion
IKN198 is done, we close with bullet points:
• So why don’t I own Radius Gold (RDU.v) right now? RDU is one of the better tinycap
explorers out there and see no reason why it can’t be bought (and the value is there
all right) but the personal call is not to add explorecos to my exposure, I want
producers. Fat lot of good it’s done for me thanks to my purchase of Aurcana (AUN.v),
but for the time being I’m going to stick with the plan of finding cash flow positive
entities, rather than a bunch of exploration companies with assets more akin to
liabilities.
• We say goodbye to Lachlan Star (LSA.to), a victim of your author shying away from
extra risk than anything bad happening at the company. It’s one to keep a close eye on
however, as its profit potential is clear as long as 2013 goes to plan (and gold behaves
itself).
• Once again the opportunity offered by OGC at current prices looks tempting. The 4q12
numbers were great, guidance for 2013 is strong and Didipio is right on track. While
out of radio contact I’ll have time to muse on whether that liability profile is too heavy
or whether this is the right price at which to add some shares. However, three trades
last week (buy MLN, add BTO, sell LSA) is a lot of movement for somebody as stick-in-
the-mud as I and another precipitous trade on the heels of that lot might bring about a
nasty rush of blood to the head.
• On the road nest week, with Lima office visits and then a bit of walking around at
altitude.
The top long-term picks are Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) and B2Gold (BTO.to). I thank you in
advance for any feedback sent in. Flash updates will be sent promptly if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Otto
23

Footnotes, Appendices, references, disclaimer
Appendix 1: Flash update of Friday February 15th
Good morning, something less than two hours after the open this Friday:
After considering the sell-off in mining stocks that has accelerated this morning (to the point where it smacks of
capitulation) as well as the Lachlan Star December quarter results...
http://www.lachlanstar.com.au/images/LSA_Interim_Report_TSX_Dec_12_FINAL.pdf
http://www.lachlanstar.com.au/images/LSA_Dec31_2012Managements_Discussion_Analysis_FINAL.pdf
...a couple of decisions have been made
1) I am selling my Lachlan Star (LSA.to) and taking the loss.
There was nothing particularly wrong with the LSA Dec'12 numbers, in fact they came in generally as expected.
However, LSA is (and always was) my leveraged, high cash cost play on gold and with the state of the market I prefer to
reel in the beta-type exposure. The company decision to take a line of $10m credit announced yesterday was also a
minor factor in the decision to leave the stock. This trade has not worked out well, I bought badly and it's never really
been ahead. With the quarter (likely two) that it will need for CMD to turn the undoubted promise of the CMD mine into
bottom line returns, I'm going to face my own reality and take the significant loss. I also think that if LSA delivers on its
promise it is a potential buy and return to my portfolio further down the line, but once on the sidelines it's easier to make
any re-purchase call.
2) The proceeds of the LSA sale will be used to add to my B2Gold (BTO.to) position
As posited in IKN197 last week, I'm good about adding to the Top Pick BTO position if a entry price that allows me to
average down were available. With today's selling and BTO currently under $3.20 that's now a real opportunity and I'm
taking it.
Important
Please note that with the two trades outlined above I am NOT adding to or subtracting from my overall exposure to the
market in absolute cash terms. What I am doing is lessening the risk exposure level of the portfolio somewhat by selling
a riskier position and adding to a comparatively safer one. In the end, the reason behind the call is a simple one: I think
BTO will do better and rebound faster than LSA under current market conditions (in ballpark terms, I see BTO at $4
quicker than LSA at $1.30).
Finally a small point: LSA isn't trading much today and I may have to wait until next week to sell all my position. So be it
and que sera sera, but I am looking to add to my BTO today and will "lend myself" the cash from portfolio reserve levels
if needed to do so.
Footnotes
(1) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/first-majestic-announces-friendly-acquisition-235547435.html
(2) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/coeur-d-alene-mines-corporation-110000599.html
(3) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/first-majestic-considering-superior-offer-175318407.html
(4) http://www.radiusgold.com/i/pdf/CorpPres.pdf
(5) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/benton-sells-stake-stillwater-mining-180900579.html
(6) http://m.laprensa.com.ni/ambito/134892
(7) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/plata-latina-announces-closing-c-134500445.html
(8) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/minera-irl-ltd-announces-successful-070000002.html
(9) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/discoveries-aurcanas-la-negra-mine-130000794.html
(10) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/aurcana-announces-appointment-board-member-133000920.html
(11) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/aurcana-announces-proposed-share-consolidation-133000977.html
(12) http://www.bvl.com.pe/hhii/Expediente%20inscripcion%20LUPAKA%20GOLD%20CORP.pdf
(13) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/focus-ventures-ltd-clarification-technical-024000961.html
(14) http://www.focusventuresltd.com/i/pdf/FCV-Corporate-Pres-Feb-2013-new_DC.pdf
(15) http://www.focusventuresltd.com/s/Aurora.asp?ReportID=569911
(16) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/nevada-copper-permitting-feasibility-study-151541644.html
(17) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/novacopper-reports-end-fourth-quarter-140000780.html
24

(18) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/florence-copper-prefeasibility-study-demonstrates-133000920.html
(19) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bellhaven-announces-non-brokered-financing-132200276.html
(20) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/darwin-obtains-surface-access-agreements-161400213.html
(21) http://gbroundup.wordpress.com/2013/02/12/listing-in-lima-latin-america-opportunities-for-mining-finance/
(22) http://www.pdac.ca/pdac/conv/2013/presentations-rooms.aspx
(23) http://www.larepublica.pe/17-02-2013/arequipa-tambo-condiciona-proyecto-tia-maria
(24) http://www.oceanagold.com/assets/documents/Financial-Results/Q4-2012/130215-OGC-FY-Q4-2012-Results-
Presentation-FINAL.pdf
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2012
Closed in 2012 closed close PPS
Soltoro SOL.v jan'12 C$0.87 07-nov-11 C$0.94 8.0% cash moved to BCM.v
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to feb'12 C$0.84 13-oct-10 C$0.98 16.7% trade closed on ELG.v offer
Minefinders MFN feb'12 U$11.68 17-nov-11 U$14.80 26.7% target made, trade closed
Iron Creek IRN.v mar'12 C$0.58 26-sep-10 C$0.31 -46.6% time up on small bad trade
U.S. Silver USA.to apr'12 C$2.18 15-mar-12 C$1.86 -14.7% ST trade no good, cut loss
Augusta Res. AZC.to may'12 C$3.10 29-ene-12 C$2.07 -33.2% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Bellhaven BHV.v may'12 C$0.50 22-sep-10 C$0.28 -44.0% new mgmt not impressive
Zincore Metals ZNC.to may'12 C$0.325 29-jul-11 C$0.17 -47.7% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Soltoro SOL.v may'12 C$0.70 18-mar-11 C$0.41 -41.4% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
U.S. Silver USA.to aug'12 C$1.78 27-jul-12 C$1.36 -23.6% fail ST trade close pre split
Estrella Gold EST.v aug'12 C$0.91 27-mar-11 C$0.14 -84.6% Closed on port realignment
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'12 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.32 397.2% sell call $6.17/ Mar25
Strait Minerals SRD.v oct'12 C$0.125 09-dic-11 C$0.12 -4.0% closing coverage til FY13
Sunward Res SWD.to oct'12 C$1.47 13-mar-11 C$1.21 -17.7% sold, took loss
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'12 U$21.47 09-sep-12 U$17.40 19.0% Short trade closed
Yellowhead Min. YMI.to nov'12 C$1.00 01-abr-12 C$0.63 -37.0% sold, took loss
Primero Mining PPP nov'12 U$7.26 07-oct-12 U$6.73 7.3% Short trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v nov'12 C$3.38 07-nov-11 C$3.72 10.1% Took small profit
Vena Resources VEM.to dec'12 C$0.70 31-may-09 C$0.18 -74.3% Failed trade (caps F)
Galway Res GWY.v dec'12 C$2.19 24-nov-12 C$2.30 5.0% closed good ST arb trade
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2011
Closed in 2011 closed close PPS
Sunward Res SWD.v jan'11 C$1.05 21-nov-10 C$1.63 55.2% target made, trade closed
Serengeti Res SIR.v mar'11 C$0.245 05-dec-10 C$0.285 16.3% sold pre-tgt, ST trade fail
Fronteer Gold FRG apr'11 U$2.37 03-may-09 U$15.24 543.0% buyout, trade closed
Minefinders MFN apr'11 U$9.09 07-nov-10 U$16.89 85.8% target made, trade closed
Metalline Min. MMG may'11 U$1.04 26-jan-11 U$0.89 -14.4% exit, resource disappointed
Peregrine Met PGM.to jul'11 C$0.87 06-mar-11 C$2.60 198.9% buyout offer, closed
Dynasty Metals DMM.to jul'11 C$4.20 03-may-09 C$2.85 -32.1% Sold. Fail. Move on.
Aura Silver AUU.v aug'11 C$0.22 13-oct-10 C$0.16 -36.4% Bad pick. Take loss
U.S. Silver USA.v aug'11 C$0.52 26-jan-11 C$0.71 36.5% closed to make room
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'11 C$2.80 12-may-11 C$4.27 52.5% target made, trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v sep'11 C$3.80 27-may-11 C$4.17 9.7% macro sell call victim
Minefinders MFN sep'11 U$14.70 10-aug-11 U$15.15 3.1% macro sell call victim
Great Panther GPR.to sep'11 C$3.03 22-aug-11 C$2.64 -12.9% macro sell call victim
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'11 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.36 400.9% sold 20%, macro sell call
Focus Ventures FCV.v nov'11 C$0.40 20-apr-10 C$0.20 -50.0% cut losses, bad trade
Regulus Res. REG.v dec'1 C$1.17 14-aug-11 C$0.52 -55.6% cut on news of poor 43-101
2009 and 2010 closed positions in appendices below
25

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2010
Closed in 2010 closed close PPS
B2Gold Corp BTO.to Jan'10 C$0.88 08-nov-09 C$1.49 68.2% target made, trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v Jan'10 C$0.18 23-aug-09 C$0.40 122.2% target made, trade closed
MAG Silver MVG mar'10 U$5.60 23-nov-09 U$7.28 30.0% closed in pdac week
Riverside Res RRI.v mar'10 C$0.435 20-sep-09 C$0.60 37.9% closed in pdac week
Amarillo Gold AGC.v mar'10 C$0.81 31-may-09 C$0.70 -13.6% closed in pdac week
B2Gold Corp BTO.to apr'10 C$1.24 18-feb-10 C$1.50 21.0% target made, trade closed
Lumina Copper LCC.v apr'10 C$0.84 14-jun-09 C$1.55 51.2% total position now sold
Troy Resources TRY.to may'10 C$1.10 03-may-09 C$2.25 104.5% sold on negative results
AuEx Ventures XAU.to may'10 C$2.51 24-may-09 C$3.38 34.7% trade closed
Nevada Copper NCU.to jun'10 C$3.27 14-mar-10 C$2.03 -37.9% need to lower Cu exposure
Carpathian Gold CPN.to jun'10 C$0.39 14-mar-10 C$0.35 -10.3% too exposed to cap raising
Amerix PM Corp APM.v jun'10 C$0.065 08-nov-09 C$0.05 -23.1% victim of macro bear
Antares Minerals ANM.v jun'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$2.10 47.9% sold half
Vena Resources VEM.to jun'10 C$0.37 31-may-09 C$0.23 -37.8% sold half
Minera Andes MAI.to sep'10 C$0.75 28-jul-10 C$0.95 26.7% ST trade closed
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to sep'10 C$0.52 01-aug-10 C$0.75 44.2% target made, trade closed
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'10 C$1.45 25-may-10 C$2.01 34.5% target made, trade closed
Blue Sky Uran BSK.v oct'10 C$0.41 19-may-10 C$0.22 -46.3% v small v bad trade closed
Dia Bras Expl DIB.v oct'10 C$0.14 30-aug-09 C$0.35 150.0% target made, trade closed
S. Amer. Silver SAC.to nov'10 C$1.38 24-oct-10 C$1.60 -15.9% loss on short, small fail
Ventana Gold VEN.to nov'10 C$7.92 27-jun-10 C$13.51 70.6% trade closed on buyout
Lumina Copper LCC.v nov'10 C$1.42 11-aug-10 C$3.65 157.0% trade closed
Antares Minerals ANM.v dec'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$8.40 491.5% trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.v dec'10 C$0.69 23-mar-10 C$2.16 213.0% trade closed
Coro Mining COP.to dec'10 C$0.585 03-oct-10 C$1.24 112.0% target made, trade closed
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2009
Closed positions closed closing PPS
Cardero Res CDY/CDU.to May'09 U$1.20 03-May-09 U$0.87 -27.5% sold on negative news
Eastmain Res. ER.to May'09 C$1.04 06-May-09 C$1.315 26.4% trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v May'09 C$0.165 03-May-09 C$0.235 42.4% trade closed
Latin Amer Min. LAT.v May'09 C$0.12 03-May-09 C$0.158 29.2% trade closed
Aquiline Res. AQI.to July'09 C$2.03 16-Jun-09 C$1.68 -17.2% took loss, bad timing
Chariot Resources CHD.to Aug'09 C$0.20 12-Jul-09 C$0.415 107.5% trade closed
Castle Gold CSG.v Sep'09 C$0.64 02-Aug-09 C$0.60 -6.3% ST trade didn't work out
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to Sep'09 C$2.30 12-May-09 C$4.50 95.7% profit taken
Los Andes Copper LA.v Sep'09 C$0.09 21-Jun-09 C$0.09 0% trade closed
Pediment Gold PEZ.to Oct'09 C$0.80 09-Aug-09 C$1.00 25.0% trade closed
Minera Andes MAI.to Oct'09 C$0.68 03-May-09 C$0.71 4.4% too much bad news
Dynasty Metals DMM.to Nov'09 C$4.18 03-May-09 C$6.01 43.8% half sold
Rusoro Mining RML.v Nov'09 C$0.55 03-May-09 C$0.57 3.6% underperformed
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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