IKN #192Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 192, January 6th 2013
Contents
This Week: Political risk in copper (and other) projects.
Fundamental Analysis: The Copper Basket 2013
Stocks to Follow: Overview, Galway Metals (GWM.v), OceanaGold (OGC.to)(OGC.ax), Minera
IRL (IRL.to)(MIRL.L), Focus Ventures (FCV.v), Lachlan Star (LSA.to)(LSA.ax), B2Gold (BTO.to),
Rio Alto (RIO.to).
Copper Basket: Overview, Candente Copper (DNT.to), NovaCopper (NCQ.to), Nevada Copper
(NCU.to), Western Copper and Gold (WRN.to).
The Lottery Ticket Basket: Overview.
Regional Politics: The new head of Mexico’s Semarnat environment office Juan José Guerra
Abud, Colombia sees protests against AngloGold Ashanti’s ‘La Colosa’, Colombia’s concessions
system to be unfrozen by June, Guatemala’s biggest problem in 2013 is the mining sector,
Mexico: A potential bottleneck in sector growth: Lack of qualified professionals.
Market Watching: Goldgroup Mining (GGA.to) redux, A preview of Rio Alto Mining’s (RIO.to)
4q12 production figures.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or given to any
third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Political risk in copper (and other) projects
Panorama of Cerro de Pasco, the mine that made
William Randolph Hearst and family rich
Foreword: Today was always going to be the edition to roll out the 2013 Copper Basket, but on
top of that there’s more about copper and the companies concerned with it than anything else
in this week’s edition which starts right here.
1

You stare at the screen long enough and patterns start to emerge. One sub-sector of juniors
that currently holds much of my interest is the copper exploration companies, which may be
because I’ve spent the last few week filtering through the space to put together the new 2012
Copper Basket (see ‘Fundamentals...’ below) but is also do the fact that I think there’s money
to be made from the sector and I currently have limited exposure there.
As usual, the market sorts out the wheat from chaff and cream from the whey and prices
market peers accordingly. However, I’ve watched a trend develop that looks like it’s now
strengthening further, that of political risk. The moves in Western Copper and Gold (WRN.to)
and Nevada Copper (NCU.to) recently look for all the world like a market that’s searching hard
for a copper project that’s in a politically safe jurisdiction. The same can be said for NGEx
Resources (NGQ.to), which by luck of the frontier line has its main deposit in Chile rather than
Argentina. Meanwhile, Lumina Copper (LCC.v) at its Taca Taca project has tried and failed to
find a buyer, despite the deposit having reached high-end world class status with 20Bn lbs
copper at above average grades. Staying in Argentina, Stillwater’s (SWC) purchase of Altar has
turned out to be the type of Albatross around its neck that causes proxy slates from concerned
shareholders to oust the decision-makers on that deal. McEwen Mining (MUX) has lucked out on
finding ways to monetize its massive Los Azules copper project, also in Argentina. Meanwhile
over in Panama, a business friendly but large-scale mining virgin of a country, even First
Quantum’s (FM.to) move to take over Inmet (IMN.to) comes with its own level of political
uncertainty. The prize in copper poundages there is a big one which probably tipped the
balance for FM.to, but up to now there’s no sign of the sell-side anal yst’s wet dream white
knight that will help IMN.to get a better price. And I haven’t even mentioned Ecuador yet. Or
the unfriendly areas of Peru (eg the Majaz project). Or ‘The Stans’. Or about half of Africa. Or
closer to many IKN readers’ homes is the ‘Idle No More’ movement of First Nations in Canada,
which started due more to oil sands and the C-45 bill but the sustained and (most interestingly)
coordinated manner of the fast-growing movement along with the their generalized calls for
protection of lands, drinking water et cetera is easily transferrable to hard rock mining projects.
The other end of political risk is local-level, rather than the national country or regional
reputation, as anyone who has followed Augusta Resources (AZC) can attest. That’s also true
for smaller-scale U.S in-situ copper plays Excelsior (MIN.v) and one of our new names on the
list Curis Resources (CUV.to) which faces stiff opposition from at least one sector of its local
townspeople (it’s on the new list as much to see how that story develops as anything else). It’s
worth noting too that mega copper projects aren’t the only type of mega project out there
(check Navidad in Chubut, lead/silver/zinc, or our picture above of Cerro de Pasco which is the
same type of metals mix) but they’re certainly an archetype. Up in the sparsely populated areas
of Chile you can build another La Escondida without having serious pushback problems from
locals, but just imagine trying to get a new Cerro de Pasco project through a permitting process
in the 21st century.
The other factor in the mix that makes copper explorecos more sensitive to political/social risk
factors has already been hinted at above, but needs to be said out loud, that of size. The trend
to give not just importance but utmost importance to political and social risk is most noticeable
in the big copper projects, as by their very nature they’re almost always open pit, visually
intrusive (unlike u/g vein mining), potential sources for significant ground/air/noise pollution,
take physical space and also (often an overlooked factor by everyone bar affected locals) need
manpower counted by the thousand rather than dozen or hundred, the type of influx of new
faces that can drastically change a community. The pro-project lobby will always push the
“think of how many more chocolate bars your corner shop will sell!” ideas of economic growth,
but there are enough examples of rural communities seeing their generations-old lifestyles
change abruptly and forever (and the case studies available on the internet for one and all to
see) to make those potentially affected think long and hard about the trade-offs between a
continuing bucolic lifestyle and the pros and cons of more hard cash sales. Unsurprisingly, there
are plenty who’ll turn their back on the cash.
Giving a price premium to a junior to reward low political/social risk is nothing new of course,
but we’re now at the point where it’s not just a factor, but the factor. Good on-paper economics
2

are also important to your project valuation of course and always will be (to name but two,
Schaft Creek (CUU.v) and Vizcachitas (LA.v) aren’t going to happen, even though they sit in
friendly localities). However, good relations aren’t just important these days, they’re vital. In my
opinion, the premiums now being paid for Nevada Copper (NCU.to) as it de-risks its permitting
process and the more speculative cash flowing into Western Copper (WRN.to) (by which I mean
the capex bill may kill Casino, its big but low grade project) are a direct result of the market
looking round at what’s on offer and saying “Ok guys, show me something big and in a safe
place and if it has reasonable economics too, I’ll go for it.” However, even after you’ve bought
and speculated on your safe copper project, the state of the current market gives no
guarantees that you’ll get your desired buyout from the majors afterwards.
To wrap up this intro (that’s started to ramble a bit and has gone on too long already), the
question of political and social/community risk in your large scale mining project is evermore
important and I expect that trend to continue in 2013. The very big open pit copper projects of
this world are classic examples so to finish with a bit of practical advice rather than more long-
windedness, before choosing where to put your money make sure you know:
1) Where the project is located (nation, region and locality)
2) Who is living there and how might they be affected by its arrival (and frankly, “the
fewer the better” is the optimum answer here)
3) What those people potentially affected by the project feel about its arrival
If you feel comfortable about the answers you get to those three questions then you’re
probably investigating a project with a lower than average political risk footprint, that’s a good
thing and now the economics and potential share price value can be considered.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
The Copper Basket, 2013
As planned, we today cover the new Copper Basket. First we say goodbye (sometime good
riddance) to the stocks getting dropped. Second we map out the reasons for the new choices.
Third we profile each of the new basket companies.
De omnibus rebus
Let’s first say goodbye to the seven names leaving our list, with a quick word as to why each of
the companies are being dropped:
• Baja Mining (BAJ.to): BAJ is being dropped because its a total snafu, a company and
share price ripped to pieces by the worst type of CEO mismanagement possible. Now
that it’s a minor partner at Boleo, still up to its eyeballs in debt and needing further
rounds of financing to keep the portion of the project it still holds, the stock offers little
reward set against the massive risk of hoping it can do something right for a change.
• Regulus Resources (REG.v): Although the share price slipped badly in 2012 (along
wit plenty of other companies in the sector, of course), the reason we’re letting REG
drop is different. The way its flagship Rio Grande property is now shaping up, it’s
looking much more like a gold-with-copper story than a copper-with-gold, particularly in
that South-Western corner that’s the main object of company attention these days.
• Duran Ventures (DRV.v): A bit of a mix, as although DRV’s flagship story remains
the Aguila copper project, there’s every chance that DRV is driven (or otherwise) this
year by drilling at its two gold projects optioned to Rio Alto. Thus see REG above.
3

• Excelsior Mining (MIN.v): Pretty simply, we’re swapped out this underperforming
and overhyped dog and bringing in a similar type of company in Curis (CUV.to), with
the main difference between the two being that CUV actually has a decent shot at
rewarding its shareholders as long as it gets its locals on-side.
• Catalyst Copper (CCY.v): “You’ll never work in this town again, Mr Greenslade”.
Catalyst Copper is the vehicle that’s left in John Greenslade’s hands after his Baja
Mining ouster and was for a time (while everything was peachy keen at BAJ) the target
of potential M&A action for the larger entity (that would have greatly benefitted his own
back pocket, long with those of Frank Giustra, Gordon Keep and a host of other usual
suspect extras). But these days the cat is out the bag and the Greenslade name being
radioactive as it is means that new financing or further participation from partner Teck
is unlikely. This project was never a top level proposal, but the structure now on top of
the deposit is as near untouchable as they get.
• AQM Copper (AQM.v): The main reason to drop AQM is that its share price has been
beaten into the seven types of pulp and the tracking basket this year is concentrating
on slightly larger market cap explorecos that can (if we’re lucky) give a better
representation of the market as a whole. AQM’s Zafranal still has its merit, but the PPS
is now down to a place that can skew very easily, either way. The secondary reason is
that we’re putting it in out Lottery Ticket Basket this year, so no need to track it twice.
We’re getting rid of the smallfry and getting in companies that will give us a better
bellweather basket for 2013...or at least we hope. I still hold my shares in AQM and the
coverage will continue for as-long-as in the Stocks to Follow section.
• Crazy Horse (CZH.v): This name was originally included by popular demand (you
guys out there) and I was always leery of its low grades, marginal looking economics
and aggressive promotional profile. I’m not saying that I’m immune to failure with other
names (start with AQM.v bought at 31c, work your way down) but on this one I was
right as the Taysan project is now on “care and maintenance” and the company stock
price duly hammered for its non-performance. We drop CZH because it’s going
nowhere, and because of the desire to have bigger, better traded and more
representative stocks in the list (see above).
And with that speedy overview we say farewell to the names leaving our list after 2012 and
move to today’s more pressing matters.
Novus ordo seclorum*
It’s time to introduce the new arrivals to The Copper Basket 2013. On an overall level, I’ve gone
for companies with higher market caps this year after getting somewhat screwed by last year’s
decision to spread companies in The Copper Basket over large and small market cap
subsections. When the market went to pot, far too many of the small plays became deadbeat
stocks that were too tiny, too dry of funds and of too little interest even to the most speculative
end of the market to be of any interest. In short, they stayed dead. Therefore this year we’ve
chosen to put in higher market caps therefore (and barring the single “tinycap” representative
I’ve decided to leave in, the still potentially likeable Strait Minerals) the lowest market cap in the
list is $38m. A final note before diving in is this, well worth repeating at such a moment:
I DO NOT OWN ALL THE STOCKS IN THE COPPER BASKET. I DO NOT RECOMMEND
THEM AS BUYS. THEY ARE CHOSEN AS A REPRESENTATIVE BUNCH OF THE COPPER
JUNIOR EXPLORATION SECTOR, NO MORE NOR LESS.
So to business and we’re going to do it in order of market cap (as at Friday’s close) and in the
same style as ever, you get:
• Name, ticker, PPS, S/O, market cap
4

• A little introduction on the company and its property/properties
• Things to like, things to watch for, perhaps things that aren’t so good
• Why it’s being included in this year’s list
Without further ado....
NGEx Resources (NGQ.to)
Ticker: NGQ.to, Share price, $3.24, Shares out 158.5m, Market Cap $513.54.
NGQ was the no-brainer choice for our 2013 Copper Basket because although it’s already pretty
darned expensive at over half a billion dollars, its flagship ‘Los Helados’ project ticks off just
about every box you’d want for a large copper deposit
• Miner friendly country
• Miner friendly region in-country
• Big resource with plenty of opportunity to get bigger
• Remote location away from any community worries
• Surprisingly good infrastructure profile considering its remote location
• Strong JV partner who looks for all the world like the eventual buyer of either the whole
company or this specific asset
Just to cover a few of those points, Los Helados is just (by which we mean just, less than 2km
from the frontier) on the Chilean side of the Andes frontier between Chile and Argentina, which
means it’s very very on the right side of the border. In fact NGQ has two other prospective
assets very close to Los Helados, namely Josemaria and Filo del Sol, but even though they are
in just 10 or 20km away they’re both on the Argentine side of the border and as such have to
compete with a whole bunch of projects that are getting ignored due to that country’s political
risk profile. The three projects together are a true district, but that pesky political line gets in
the way of valuing the other two targets very highly, at the moment at least.
No folks, the subject matter for us is Los Helados in Chile and the story behind this project gets
better when we consider that Pan Pacific Copper (PPC), a JV between Japan’s JX Nippon (66%)
and Mitsui (34%), has taken a 40% share of Los Helados. The interesting bit here is that PPC is
the 75% owner and operator of the big Caserones copper project that’s currently under
construction just 20km from Los Helados. This means that the big Japan partner is committed
to the area, is already putting in all necessary infrastructure as part of the $3Bn construction
plan and is the obvious candidate to eventually buy the other 60% of Los Helados it doesn’t
already own and use it to feed more its by-then operating mill.
The final big plus at Los Helados is the resource upside, as NGQ reports the project open on
just about all flanks and at depth, without mentioning the potential for exploration at the
Argentina-side assets that may be able to turn into a bilateral deal if that country ever gets its
act together and become truly miner-friendly
As for that resource, the centrepiece of the show, here’s what it looks like today:
The Los Helados 43-101 compliant resource
Grades Contained Metal
tonnes (m) cutoff CuEq Cu % Au (g/t) Ag (g/t) CuEq % Cu Bn lbs Au Moz Ag Moz
indicated 1114 0.3% 0.42% 0.19 1.46 0.55% 10.34 6.65 52.4
inferred 1015 0.3% 0.38% 0.14 1.3 0.47% 8.41 4.7 42.45
totals* 2129 18.75 11.35 94.85
*IKN can do this total, NGQ can't because it's against 43-101 rules (CuEq = 1 oz Au = 466lbs Cu)
Los Helados counts up at 18.75Bn lbs Cu (current estimates of 90% recovery) plus plenty of
gold (likely 60% recovery) that all goes to a high grade and very marketable concentrate, just
what a bunch of Japanese smelters would look for, in fact.
5

The downsides to NGQ today include the following thoughts and potentials:
• The main issue to consider is price. At its $513m market cap the stock is already
expensive and it’s debatable as to how much the Japanese minority partners (or hey,
somebody else is always possible) will pay for the 60% it doesn’t already own. If we
exclude the Au/Ag byproduct metals, the 60% ownership gives us 11.25Bn lbs under
NGQ control, which is about 2.2c/lb Cu in-situ. That’s still cheap compared to deals in
recent years (that started at around 3c/lb and saw higher numbers paid too) but the
days of the done deals in the copper space seem a long time ago. With the FM.to move
on IMN.to there is a bit more to like about the sector M&A potential, but how long we
might wait on this is one to debate. At today’s price I consider NGQ as reasonable
without being knockdown wowser-cheap value, which means the risk of downside
cannot be discounted.
• Grade isn’t that strong overall compared to the preferred 0.3% CuEq cut-off, though
with the infrastructure advantages, good recoveries and met and likely cheap
operational parameters, this isn’t the biggest of worries.
• It’s at high altitude and a tough place to work. True for exploration, double true for
eventual production when the mine is running 365 days a year. That will make salaries
and costs higher than the average.
The bottom line is that NGQ, thanks to its Chilean asset (and no thanks to its Argentine ones)
has become a leading M&A candidate in the copper sector and due to that, we want it on our
list.
Hot Chili Ltd (HCH.ax)
Ticker: HCH.ax, Share price, AUS$0.70, S/O 286.78m, Market Cap AUS$200.75m
When asking for suggestions for the 2013 basket, one of the observations from out there that
resonated was “get some Australian exposure”. This makes a lot of sense, what was Oz being a
leading mining exploration nation and my lack of coverage on country stocks so far (bar the
dual listings such as OGC and LSA) so there and then I decided to put at least one name in.
After considering several options, the one I’ve gone for to represent Australia on our list is Hot
Chili Ltd, a company that’s aggressively moving forward on its flagship ‘Productora’ project
located in Chile. HCH has an option to buy into 100% of the project and has already come up
with an initial resource for the main central part of the project with the table (ripped from the
website) here:
6

The total indicated + inferred copper of 483,000 tonnes is 1.06Bn lbs in old money (by the way,
under JORC rules, unlike Canadian 43-101, companies are allowed to add indicateds and
inferreds together) which means that Productora can hardly be called the biggest project out
there, but despite that there’s plenty to like about this project. Here’s a list:
• It’s in Chile. More specifically it’s about 10 miles from the town of Vallenar (call it
roughly half way between Santiago and Antofagasta in the North) and just 5km off the
main Panamerican highway. A fine address.
• There’s plenty of room for resource upside. HCH has already reported some very
decent drill numbers since the initial resource was published (eg 49m of 1.1% copper)
and the company reports that it has so far only explored 1.5km of an estimated 9.4km
strike length at site.
• The company is cashed up after running a three tranche round of financing in late
2012, HCH now has an IKN estimated AUS$45m in working capital to its name. Not
only is this good and means the company can get on with things, it’s also significant
that a small junior could raise that amount of cash for a base metals project at an
undoubtedly difficult market time for junior financing.
• It has an interesting local sponsor. On board is Compañia de Aceros del Pacifico (CAP),
Chile’s largest iron ore producer which, via a subsidiary has bought into HCH twice (the
latest being a $4m purchase as part of the 2012 financings) and now holds around
5.7% of shares out. This is a strong strategic partner to have in-country and a badge of
success for the junior.
• As well as Productora, HCH has a couple of other interesting early stage projects,
including a deal with Codelco to option into up to 60% of the Mantos project owned by
the Chile state-owned giant
Overall we like the look of HCH because its in the right country, has a prospective looking
project heading up its asset book and has the cash and attitude to move things forward. The 12
month price chart shows Hot Chili
had a bit of a rough moment in
mid-2012 (hardly an isolated
case) but has bounced back well
recently and is closing in on the
best price ever seen in the stock,
the low 80c range of early 2011.
It’s a welcome addition to our
Copper Basket coverage and
although not a knock-down
bargain at current valuations, has
plenty of potential exploration
upside to offer. That’s exactly
what we want from an exploration
company, isn’t it?
7

Panoro Minerals (PML.v)
Ticker: PML.v, Share price, $0.61, Shares out 176.25m, Market Cap $107.51m
PML is a Peru company with a book of exploration assets, mainly in the Central/South Central
regions that are generally miner-friendly. At present it has two assets with 43-101 compliant
resource estimates to their names.
• Cotabambas: As at the recent resource update of September 2012, the Cotabambas
project is given an inferred resource of 404.1mt grading 0.42% Cu (0.62% CuEq
including Au and Ag by-products) which implies contained 3.75Bn lbs contained copper.
On top of that, initial-stage met work suggests positives in recoveries (~87% Cu) and
concentrate quality and PML also estimates there to be “exploration potential” of up to
520mt of mineralization at the deposit (pinches of salt required).
• Antilla: This project near Cusco has a 43-101 resource of 154mt grading 0.47% Cu plus
minor moly (Mo) credits, implying nearly 1.6Bn lbs contained copper.
With $12.2m working capital as at end 3q12 (Sept 30th), PML would have just enough cash to
see it through 2013 given current burn rates, therefore the most likely situation will be a new
round of financing later this year. Although it hasn’t yet found a massive world-class copper
deposit, we already know that the 3Bn lb to 5Bn lb resource bracket is a marketable asset in
Peru (eg Constancia) and with plenty of other exploration targets to go for, PML offers our
Copper Basket 2013 edition a straight shot exploration company that will likely follow the
market trends. On a personal level it’s never been a company that’s lit my fire or caused me to
think “Hey wow! Great value here!” but at the same time I’ve never had much against it. As for
the share price, I’ve noted on a few occasions that it gets quite a bit of promotional coverage
from both Canadian-side commentators and from Lima (it quotes on Peru’s BVL stock market)
so the potential to use PML as a trading vehicle is also in play.
NovaCopper Inc (NCQ.to)
Ticker: NCQ.to, Share price, $2.03, Shares out 51.89m, Market Cap $105.34
NovaCopper was spun out of NovaGold in 2012 and took with it from the parent company the
Ambler group of mineral deposits in Northwestern Alaska, now re-named the Upper Kobuk
Mineral Projects (UKMP). NCQ also took from the parent company Rick van Nieuwenhuyse (ex
CEO there, now Pres/CEO of NCQ) and other members of the NovaGold team. Finally on the
8

structure side, we note that main NovaGold sponsors are also backing NCQ, with Electrum
Partners of New York (Kaplan) owning over 25% of shares out.
As for projects and what the company is doing, as good a place to start as any is the latest
corporate presentation (1) as long as you can filter our the promo style of NCQ that’s also a
hallmark of its parent company. This target map (that scale bar at the bottom isn’t easy to
make out on this reduced size version, but it’s 5 miles, which makes the whole Ambler district
about 40 miles long) does as good as any other slide to give an overview of NCQ’s assets at
present....
...and as you can see there is 1) lots to explore and 2) a main resource already outlined at the
‘Arctic’ project of 4.9 Bn lbs CuEq (all categories). It’s held in very high grading rock too, a
reported 7.0% CuEq (made up of 4.1% Cu, 6% Zn 1% Pb 60 g/t Ag and 0.8 g/t Au). To cap it
off, Arctic already has a PEA (scoping study) published on it that presumes a $262m capex to
build an underground mine ops and 4000tpd mill that offers very strong economic parameters
(just one quick line, a base case post-tax NPV-8% of $533m, which implies an IRR of 26%,
using $2.50/lb copper and other reasonable assumptions for the byproduct metals) though the
real prize that NCQ will be shooting for is most likely more exploration, more resource upside
from the other earlier stage targets, more collective resource and a bigger mine operation fed
by them all further down the line. In fact, the company’s stated corporate objective is to get to
10Bn lbs CuEq in the Ambler district.
We like the rocks at NCQ. We’re not so hot about the heavy-promo management style. The
other thing to watch at the company is burn rate, because exploration in remote Alaska doesn’t
come cheap and the $40m that set the company going at the spin-out is unlikely to get it
through the whole of 2013 (even with the recent $5m treasury boost from exercised warrants.
On the other hand, access to funds is likely to be fairly straightforward thansk to its big
backers, but that can also mean those big players doing deals that best suit them, rather than
us little retailers. Finally, it’s fair to say that until today, the short trading life of NCQ has seen
pretty choppy price action so those of you interested in this story might consider it as a trading
vehicle, rather than a longer-term buy’n’hold investment vehicle. However, there’s enough to
like about NCQ to warrant its inclusion and the tipping point for me personally was getting
some Alaska/Far North exposure into the basket.
9

Reservoir Minerals (RMC.v)
Ticker: RMC.v, Share price, $2.48, Shares out 41.46m, Market Cap $102.82m
If you start this section by scrolling down to the 12 month price chart at the end, you’ll see that
for the first part of 2012 RMC was pottering along at-or-around 50c on low traded volumes.
That suddenly changed on July 16th when the company announced (2). The July 16th NR
announced excellent drill result at its Timok property in East Serbia of 266m of 1.23% CuEq
(1.07% Cu) from work done by by Freeport McMoRan (FCX) as part of its optioning deal on the
property. That’s a very good holes and naturally the stock perked up, but things went haywire
on September 4th when RMC announced (3) a hole drilled by FCX that returned 160m of
10.16% CuEq (6.92% Cu) which is one of the best holes seen by anyone, anywhere in the
world no matter what your metal.
In fact, RMC has plenty of other properties, five others in Eastern Europe and one in Cameroon
Africa and any of those might provide extra value added news in the months (years) to come,
but the reason to like this stock and have it on our basket in 2013 is Timok. According to the
terms of the deal with FCX, the major can earn into a maximum of 75% by delivering a
feasibility study on the property (and after the results seen so far this year it’s almost certain to
do just that) so RMC is on a profitable looking free ride for 25% of an important deposit for the
foreseeable future. Just how much rock, or what overall grade, or what met or geological
problems the geology Gods might
throw at Timok is yet to be seen but
the current ~$100m market cap for a
quarter of a potential world class
mine of the future looks like a fair
speculative exploration bet from
here. To add an extra cherry on top
of this cake, one of the key men
behind RMC is Miles Thompson,
known to IKN readers as the main
driver of Lara Resources (LRA.v)
alongside Andre Gauthier. A better,
straighter-shooting executive in the
world of junior mining is tough to
find and having Thompson on board
is its own recommendation.
1

Oracle Mining (OMN.to)
Ticker: OMN.to, Share price, $0.80, Shares out 49.03, Market Cap $39.22m
OMN is a rather under-radar exploration company with a flagship project in Tucson Arizona, the
Oracle Ridge copper mine. This is an old producing underground mine that started operation in
1991 but was closed in 1996 due to low prices. It’s is now being moved forward by OMN and
what we current have is a historic reserve (i.e. NOT 43-101 compliant) of 8.14 million tons at
2.33% copper which indicates a contained copper resource of 379m lbs. OMN has already done
enough drill work and seen the type of results that give credence to that historic resource, so
it’s not pie in the sky stuff. Also, the historic resource doesn’t take into account precious metals
by products or the opportunity to expand the resource from its present tonnage. There’s also a
decent and thorough technical report already published by OMN that you can find on link (4).
Today’s task is to get Oracle Ridge to feasibility study level that will then enable the company
and its backers to make a construction decision and build a mine. The plan is currently
ballparked at building a 2000tpd mill, which implies an approximate 11 year mine life. As for
financing, OMN has plenty of interesting financial backers, including Red Kite (the big copper
trading house that likes doing finance deals on start-ups) who own 19.9% of shares, RichStone
Mining Investments Ltd who own 15.9% of shares, not forgetting insiders/officers who have
16.6%...this is a tightly held company. It also has a letter of intent signed with Credit Suisse for
a $70m loan facility, the kind of cash it will need to actually start building its machine.
We like OMN because it’s going about the job of actually building its own operation and doesn’t
have “got to sell this to a major” as its principle exit strategy. Also, the way in which the big
backers have taken equity means that retail shareholders are likely to enjoy the ride as well if
things go well for the company. It’s
smaller sized mining than the
average copper proposition, which is
good for the range we look to cover
in The Copper Basket. It’s also going
about its work in a quiet and
unassuming manner, not trying to
wow the retail world with flashy
promos, which means that if things
go well (that phrase again) it will get
its discovery moment from a wider
audience and benefit thereof. Finally,
it’s in strongly positive mining
country and being a past-producing
underground operation, less prone to
community protests than the
Rosemonts (AZC) of this world.
Curis Resources (CUV.to)
Ticker: CUV.to, Share price, $0.68, Shares out 56.31m, Market Cap $38.29m
Last of the new entries is Curis Resources (CUV.to) and it’s one that’s been chosen for slightly
different reasons. For the lowdown on this company’s Florence advanced stage copper project
in Arizona USA I urge you to check out link (5) below which takes you to the company’s latest
corporate presentation. Here we’ll just offer up the basic resource count (from company
website) which shows an all-categories 3.35Bn lbs copper.
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Now for the reasons CUV.to is in this year’s list:
• We have dropped Excelsior Minerals (MIN.v), which was our representative of the “in-
situ copper recovery” sub-section of copper plays. These are companies with operations
or projects that inject dilute acid into copper-laden bedrock and recover the solution
that has been impregnated with copper. The metal is then recovered from the solution.
• Curis Resources (CUV.to) at Florence is also an in-situ copper recovery project. In fact
it’s even later stage than the MIN.v project and is basically ready to go now.
• Its problem is political risk, as the company has attracted strong opposition from at
least one section of locals who live near the project. They object to the mine going into
operation on environmental grounds, worrying about the effect on water tables,
agriculture etc.
• If it were for these environmental protests Florence would most likely already be in
production. As things stands there’s a legal battle going on between company and anti-
mining community members which sets CUV aside from most of our other projects (an
obvious exception being AZC, already a member of the team).
• We have therefore included CUV in our list this year because a) I was keen on retaining
an in-situ recovery play as part of the mix and b) CUV is likely to march to a different
beat, that of the results from courtrooms rather than results from drilling or the copper
spot market.
One of the downsides to this project is that Curis it’s one of the Hunter Dickinson stable of
companies who have proven themselves to be far too arrogant and patronizing for their own
good over the years, as well as being rather thin-skinned when it comes to criticism (6). Just
the kind of combination that’s needed to antagonize locals into hating you and your project and
mobilizing them against you, in fact. In your author’s considered opinion the HDI Group needs
to change its attitude and drastically
improve the way it goes about political
and community/social risk matters,
both in this example and in other
places.
As for company valuations, as you see
below the last three or four months
have been typified by sharp spikes and
drops in the share price which have
nearly always corresponded to legal
victories and losses for the company in
its fight to get fully permitted. If CUV
eventually wins the day, gets all the
papers it needs and goes into
operation at Florence, this share price
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has the potential to go a lot higher. However be clear that if the judges rule against the
company the price will head South.
Conclusion
That wraps up our presentation of the new names for this year’s Copper Basket. The choices
are made, it’s now up to the vagaries of the market to see how well they do.
*know your US one dollar bill
Stocks to Follow
Week one 2013 was good one for our list, with ten making positive moves (not listing them all)
and just two stocks losing a little ground (FCV.v, USC.to). The biggest moves registered were in
Minera IRL (IRL.to up 9.8%) and Lupaka Gold (LPK.to up 9.4%). We’re now in a new year so
all the 2012 closed trades have been shuffled off to the appendices (remember folks, we hide
nothing and show every closed trade, good bad and ugly, over the 192 weeks).
Even though markets and such are ‘officially’ back from the Christmas period it was still a fairly
quiet week and newsflow rhythm hasn’t picked up yet. That will probably change in the days to
come, as we’re now moving into the timeframe for 4q12 production numbers from miners large
and small Plenty for this fundies guy to get his teeth into, for sure.
We currently have 12 open positions, three less than our self-imposed maximum. Of those five
are showing a profit and seven are showing a loss.
Company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
Top Picks
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to buy C$2.04 07-apr-11 C$5.24 156.9% $6.29 tgt
Recommends
Minera IRL IRL.to hold C$0.73 22-jul-12 C$0.90 23.3% $1.56 tg, added, new avg
B2Gold BTO.to hold C$3.45 28-nov-12 C$3.64 5.5% $4.55 tgt
Aurcana Corp AUN.v buy C$1.07 11-nov-12 C$0.98 -8.4% $1.50 tgt near term play
OceanaGold OGC.to buy C$3.03 16-sep-12 C$2.78 -8.3% $5.34 tgt growth prod
Lara Expl. LRA.v hold C$1.15 08-apr-12 C$1.20 4.3% solid biz model, LT hold
Lachlan Star LSA.to hold C$1.50 30-sep-12 C$1.28 -14.7% $2.23 tgt, hi beta to Au
Plata Latina PLA.v hold C$0.79 10-apr-12 C$0.49 -38.0% considering sale
Lupaka Gold LPK.to hold C$1.12 23-oct-11 C$0.465 -58.5% holding
Smaller/Riskier
AQM Copper AQM.v hold C$0.31 16-oct-11 C$0.085 -72.6% holding thru for my sins
Focus Ventures FCV.v hold C$0.175 01-jul-12 C$0.18 2.9% revised tgt 25c
United Silver USC.to buy C$0.21 28-oct-12 C$0.17 -19.0% 60c tgt, avg down Dec'12
Closed in 2013
n/a
2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 closed positions in appendices below
Now for some notes on a selection of the above stocks.
Galway Metals (GWM.v) notice: As announced in IKN190 (and reminded via the blog last
week (7)) your author made good on his plan to sell his inherited spin-out shares in Galway
Metals (GWM.v) when trading in the company started on January 4th. The price received, 6c,
1

was at the low end of expectations but I wasn’t really in the game to squeeze every last half
cent out of the stock price and simply wanted to cash out, liquidate and be done. It wouldn’t
surprise me in the slightest to see GWM.v trend back up to its approximate residual cash value
in the days ahead (~8c) but two two pennies are for somebody else.
When the other spin-out, Galway Gold (GLW.v), starts trading (near future probably) I won’t be
in such a hurry to sell at the first possible opportunity. Even though the plan isn’t to hold this
one I’ll be looking for a better price from GLW before disposing, with 30c mentally slated in
right now.
OceanaGold (OGC.to) (OGC.ax): OGC continues to act somewhat strangely and maybe it’s a
bit too welcoming to the
daytrade/fliptrade communities for its
own good. This is one of the stocks
we’ll look to for a good 4q12
production statement and 2013
guidance, though I am starting to
scratch my head and wonder just
what type of catalyst it needs to move
up to price levels that better reflect its
strong fundamentals.
Minera IRL (IRL.to) (MIRL.L): An interesting little interview with IRL CEO Courtney
Chamberlain came out last week (8). Most of the content goes over ground that’s been
previously covered (which doesn’t make it irrelevant, simply repeated, and it’s still worth
reading the whole report) but there was one short segment regarding plans for financing that
caught my eye. Here it is:
Chamberlain says the next big milestone is to finance the projects. In Argentina [at Don Nicolas],
“We are looking seriously at self-financing,” he told Proactive Investors, with any deal secured
against the assets. In Peru [at Ollachea], "We are seeing interest from banks and looking at a
more traditional debt/equity arrangement."
That’s pretty interesting, because (as we’ve repeated on too many occasions already) the
make-up of the financing deals, particularly that of Don Nicolas, will go a long way to
determining whether IRL gets shifted up to ‘Top Pick’ level on our list and see your author buy
a chunk more of the stock. A deal that keeps as much benefit as possible in the hands of
shareholders is what we’re looking for from IRL, so in the case of Don Nicolas what we’d really
like to see is a debt financing deal that’s non-dilutive, that can be paid off quickly and keeps
everybody, bankers and shareholders alike, happy. Therefore seeing the phrase “a deal secured
against the assets” fits right in with that scenario and it also fits in with the previously reported
(on these pages) and long-understood jungledrum rumours from Buenos Aires that IRL was
looking to do a deal with local money in order to build its machine. By 1) clearly separating the
deals for Ollachea and Don Nicolas and 2) moving to use the operation in Santa Cruz and its
assets as the collateral for the financing of Don Nicolas, IRL is dropping a strong hint that it’s
going to be that local money to fund its Argentina operation. Meanwhile, a “more traditional
debt/equity” arrangement for Ollachea would likely come afterwards and (hopefully, gold price
and market Gods permitting) the portion of equity financing raised at a higher price than
today’s sub-dollar levels. But first things first and I’m very keen on seeing the deal that IRL
eventually enters into to fund Don Nicolas, as it’s likely to set the tone for the company’s
fundamentals and share price potential for the years to come.
Meanwhile in trading, IRL returned a very good near-10% win on the week but volumes were
thin and we shouldn’t read too much into the jump (just 3k shares traded on Friday, for
1

example). If you’re looking to start/add to an IRL position I don’t think there’s any need to pay
a 9-handle for the moment, mid-80s should get you a fill as long as you apply patience.
Focus Ventures (FCV.v): It’s not the tell-all big clue that some try to make it out to be, but
all the same insider trading is something I keep one eye on and it’s not always the biggest
movements that are the most interesting ones (else I’d be rattling on about the First Majestic
officers selling their stock every other week). Smaller trades can often catch the eye more, with
an example being the moves seen in Focus Ventures /FCV.v) recently (9). Star of our show is
Mario Szotlender, one of the core players in the Goldgroup Mining stable of companies, and we
start by noting the 500k shares he sold in early December. On inquiring at the time, your
author was told that this was a pre-arranged deal from years ago that allowed company
president David Cass (cast in the role of best supporting actor today) to buy the 1/2 m shares
which had been held until then by Szotlender, so even though it looks like Szotlender was
dumping bigtime, in fact it was president Cass taking up the pre-agreed option to own more
shares (sidebar: I presume the reason Cass is not shown as the new owner of the 500k shares
is something along the lines of them being held for him or his family by a third party, but I
honestly don’t know and didn’t ask that far). Thus we have exhibit A, a company pres keen on
owning more of his company’s shares and calling in a private option. Exhibit B is what
MarioSzotlender has done since that time, which is to but 237,000 shares at prices between 17c
and 19c in the last three weeks.
Even though the cash moved in by Szotlender isn’t that massive (around $42k), that looks like
fairly significant buying to me. It also comes in the window before that expected start of
newsflow from the drilling program at Santa Cruz/Reventón, the project that we’re looking to
for news drivers in 2013 (and the timing should see the news flowing just as we get to PDAC-
time, though that of course would be an utter coincidence).
Lachlan Star (LSA.to): Better. The one we’re worried about picked itself up and traded well
last week, even ignoring the noise around that sudden Fed-note inspired drop in gold. The
other good bit is that the move happened on Wednesday 2nd and powered by average volumes
of 275k traded that day, so although things went a bit thin afterwards the return to slightly
better prices had decent money backing it up. LSA remains leveraged to gold however and your
author awaits the December quarter numbers (esp cash cost and guidance) before making any
adjustments to the current call. In the meantime, spot gold will guide this share price.
B2Gold (BTO.to): It traded up, it traded down, it traded back up again. BTO is in the front
van of stocks these days, so it’s also one of the first to get pushed around if macro events send
the market one way or the other. It was that way with gold last week, reacting knee-jerk style
to the Fed minutes report and then to the rebound in gold when people began to decide on
Friday that the media’s interpretation of those Fed minutes was so much hot air and maybe we
1

should own gold after all. Tomorrow Monday will be an interesting day, as although I don’t
normally get all rah-rah about intraday action, a decent early move for the metals complex will
be very welcome.
Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to): We preview 4q12 production numbers at RIO in ‘Market Watching’
below. Here we note that the stock had a decent little rebound week on low-ish (compared to
the 3 month average) but still acceptable volumes. Most of the commentary in the BTO piece
above also applies to RIO.
The Copper Basket
After one week of 2013 The Copper Basket is showing a 4.15% profit to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/13 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 NGEx Resources NGQ.to 3.40 158.5 513.54 3.24 -4.7%
2 Lumina Copper LCC.v 9.43 43.46 417.22 9.60 1.8%
3 Augusta Res AZC.to 2.43 144.1 371.78 2.58 6.2%
4 Copper Fox CUU.v 0.83 397.65 322.10 0.81 -2.4%
5 Nevada Copper NCU.to 3.50 80.5 311.54 3.87 10.6%
6 Hot Chili Ltd HCH.ax 0.72 286.78 200.75 0.70 -2.8%
7 Western Copper WRN.to 1.39 93.78 123.79 1.32 -5.0%
8 Panoro Minerals PML.v 0.62 176.25 107.51 0.61 -1.6%
9 NovaCopper NCQ.to 1.80 51.89 105.34 2.03 12.8%
10 Reservoir Min. RMC.v 2.41 41.46 102.82 2.48 2.9%
11 Candente Copper DNT.to 0.375 121.93 67.06 0.55 46.7%
12 Oracle Mining OMN.to 0.80 49.03 39.22 0.80 0.0%
13 Yellowhead Min. YMI.to 0.59 60.97 39.02 0.64 8.5%
14 Curis Resources CUV.to 0.70 56.31 38.29 0.68 -2.9%
15 Strait Minerals SRD.v 0.08 56.86 3.98 0.07 -12.5%
NB: HCH.ax priced in Australian dollars, rest Canadian dollars Portfolio avg 4.15%
Week one of our new list. We’ve welcomed the new additions to the list in “Fundamentals...”
today and now it’s time to see how the stocks got on last week. There is a slight wrinkle in the
stats, as we’re about to look at the week-over-week changes which aren’t the same as those
right column percentages, because December 31st fell on the Monday and gives an extra day to
the weekly stats. This means, for example, that Strait Minerals (SRD.v) is down 17.6% week-
over-week but is down 12.5% on our table.
1

So to business and since last week nine of our 2013 Copper Basket stocks made gains (LCC.v,
AZC.to, NCU.to, HCH.ax, WRN.to, NCQ.to, RMC.v, DNT.to, YMI.to), two were unchanged
(CUU.v, OMN.to) and four showed a weekly loss (NGQ.to, PML.v, CUV.to, SRD.v), all of which
implies a bright start to the year for the coppers. Some pretty impressive upmoves amongst
them too, led by Candente Copper (DNT.to up 48.6%) and followed by Nevada Copper (NCU.to
up 15.4%), Augusta Resources (AZC.to up 14.2%), NovaCopper (NCQ.to up 11.5%) and
Reservoir Minerals (RES.v up 10.2%). Worst of the losers was Strait Minerals (SRD.v down
17.6%).
Now for the macro data and this weekend, total world stocks stand up 0.7% at 590,832mt
copper, with the LME covering 320,225mt (+0.7%) Comex at 64,149mt (+0.2%) and Shanghai
at 206,458mt (+0.8%), in other words, minor stuff. Also this week we catch up with our regular
monthly inventory charts. The big rise in LME stocks over the Christmas/New Year period is
clearly shown here, as is the lowered overall percentage in Shanghai warehouses
As the percentage chart suggests, we’re seeing the same type of inventory build-up that we
saw this time last year, which also implies that as January moves on, the temporary build-up
will dissipate. That’s also the strong clue picked up from the cancelled warrants datapoint,
which stands this week at 22.35% of LME inventories (i.e. 71,575mt of copper) and tells us that
a lot of metal is about to leave the warehouses.
Cancelled Warrants at LME, IKN157 to date
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1
751NKI 851NKI 951NKI 061NKI 161NKI 261NKI 361NKI 461NKI 561NKI 661NKI 761NKI 861NKI 961NKI 071NKI 171NKI 271NKI 371NKI 471NKI 571NKI 671NKI 771NKI 871NKI 971NKI 081NKI 181NKI 281NKI 381NKI 481NKI 581NKI 681NKI 781NKI 881NKI 981NKI 091NKI 191NKI 291NKI
source: Cochilco, LME
rof
yrotnevni
EML
%
latot
yreviled
resu-dne
Copper inventories, beginning of month 2012
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
Meanwhile a Reuters article dated January 4th (10) that laid out the case that both copper and
iron ore prices are now ahead of themselves was the most thought-provoking report I read on
the sector during the week. The theory put forward by columnist Clyde Russell is that both
metals have enjoyed a boost due the renewed growth in China, but so far at least that Chinese
growth hasn’t been much more than modest so the speculative rebounds in metals prices might
need to retrace somewhat. The argument is more complex than that of course and I urge you
to use that link and go read the article yourself. It’s also a little unfair to excerpt only one
section (I mulled over pasting out the whole thing in fact, but don’t want to fill up the Weekly
with too much “other”) but this one gets to the statistical point being made by Russell:
21.naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 31.naJ
source: Cochilco
reppoc
sennot
cirtem
Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
LME Shanghai Comex 70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
21.naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 31.naJ
LME Shanghai Comex
source: Cochilco

“...the recovery in China's key manufacturing sector is still modest, and certainly nowhere the
scale of the rally seen after the global financial crisis and recession of 2008-09. The official
Purchasing Managers' Index held steady at 50.6 in December, it's third consecutive month above
the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. The official survey was slightly more
muted than the HSBC PMI, which rose to 51.5 in December, its highest reading in 11 months.
However, the official survey captures more of the large, state-controlled industries that are key to
metals demand, while HSBC focuses more on smaller enterprises. The official PMI recorded a
2012 low of 49.2 in August, meaning it has gained 2.8 percent since then. This is a small rally
compared to between November 2008 and December 2009, when the PMI gained from 38.8 to
56.6, a jump of 46 percent, and even well short of the 8.8 percent gain recorded between
November 2011 and April last year.”
With that in mind, here’s a chart of copper prices since 2004 and the red shaded areas are the
two previous China PMI expansion periods mentioned in the note. We also circle the copper
prices during latest China PMI upmove period. As you can see, the 2002-2010 period was the
one right after the Lehman/subprime financial crisis and we know a lot about that price rebound
period these days. More interesting is the second period between November 2011 and April
2012 which saw China’s PMI rise by a decent 8.8%, but by that time copper was already
fetching high market prices and the effect of the production growth spurt on copper was
modest at best.
The implication is that the current growth period in China isn’t going to be a market-moving
event for copper prices. It will likely support the current range, but it’s more difficult to imagine
copper breaking and staying above $4 again unless the growth cycle accelerates. All this plays
towards my general overview that 2013 is going to be a steady and relatively quiet one for
copper prices and I’m basing most of my thoughts on the sector around a copper price that
fluctuates around $3.50/lb all year (just like it’s doing now) rather than factoring in big bullish
or bearish moves. For sure $3.50/lb is more than enough for any copper mining company worth
its salt to make tidy profits, but it’s not the kind of headline grabber that sets up a catalyst for
1

M&A action, either. The bottom line is that it’s going to pay to be selective when choosing
junior copper exposures, as I’d say there’s less chance of seeing all boats rising on a tide.
Equally, choosing well will protect from any ‘tide’s out’ moments along the way.
Bottom bottom line: Buy quality. Oh dear, did it take me that many words to come up with
something that obvious? Apologies. Now for updates on some of our covered companies:
Candente Copper (DNT.to)
DNT put in the move of the week and a better case of organized pumping is tough to imagine.
It turns out that DNT received its water permit from Peru’s water authority, ANA, on December
7th 2012 (11) and that drilling started at Cañariaco on December 21st (12) (two rigs that were
already on site), but the news of the permit was
only made official on January 3rd. With the
mostly Lima money already positioned it was all
hands to the pumps and the strategy worked
better than even they likely imagined.
Yes, the issuance of the delayed water permit is
a positive event for DNT. However, it’s not a
permit application that’s tied in any way to the
ongoing social unrest around the Cañariaco site
and its issuance, sensu stricto, had nothing to
do with politics and everything to do with the
approval of ANA of DNT’s plan for water use
and treatment.
Equally, the drill rigs that are now turning were already on site and had no gauntlet to run with
any road-blocking locals. The net result is that yes, the fact that DNT has its drilling program on
the go at Cañariaco is a positive and it means the company will be able to supply true
exploration news to the market in the weeks and months to come. However, it doesn’t change
the poor community relations situation the company has with locals (town of Cañaris and other
nearby villages) a single jot and as I watched DNT rocket higher on the news Thursday
morning, I lamented once again (13) on the diffuculty of getting a lend and being able to short
these low priced Canadian equities.
NovaCopper (NCQ.to): Although volumes traded weren’t massive, this new member of the
troupe had a good week largely due to the
news Wednesday (14) that Electrum Strategic
Resources, long-time partner of NovaGold and
therefore this spin-out company too, had on
December 31st exercised its 5,222,879
warrants in NCQ priced at $1.48. This has the
effect of 1) bringing shares out at NCQ to
51.89m 2) bringing Electrum’s shares of that to
13.26m, or 25.6% of the company and 3)
depositing a very useful $7.73m in cash into
NCQ’s treasury. The news did to the company
what you can see in this five day price chart.
Nevada Copper (NCU.to): Another stock to enjoy a good week, NCU came out with news
Thursday (15) that said, in essence, the US Senate bill introduced late December that seeks
approval for mine development at Pumpkin Hollow didn’t get its reading (the company blamed
the fiscal cliff shenanigans for holding up normal business) and they were now looking for
passage of the bill during 2013 (and hinted at early-ish 2013, though hints shouldn’t cut much
ice with the junior mining market).
1

In fact any progress from 2012 would have been an extra bonus to NCU, as the timeline
originally set by the company was for a decision
by mid-2013. The most interesting part of the
NCU news last week wasn’t so much the contents
of the NR, which combined the “nothing doing in
112th congress” news with a general update on
the permitting track that wasn’t anything new.
No, the interesting bit was the price moves
(right). In a bearish case market this kind of
reaction doesn’t come from near non-news. I
think it might tie into the way WRN.to has found
new legs and my working theory at this time is
that the market is trying to identify the clearest
buyout candidate in the copper exploration
space.
Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to): While we’re on the subject, a quick check-in on WRN
which added 10c on the week but for a while back looked like really running as it was 20% up
on January 2nd before profit-taking (egged
on by the Fed minutes publication) kicked in.
The big event for WRN will be its upcoming
feasibility study, rumoured to be hitting the
wires any day now. If it can convince via the
numbers that this low grade project which
will require high grade capex is commercially
viable, I may have to eat my words about
my perma-dislike for this story. However, a
mediocre feas will do for WRN what the
recent Schaft Creek FS has done for Copper
Fox and with no big sugardaddy backer to
temporarily prop the price deck, either.
The Lottery Ticket Basket
After one week of 2013 The Lottery Ticket Basket is showing an 8.89% gain to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/13 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Marlin Gold MLN.v 0.10 192.39 23.09 0.120 20.0%
2 Gryphon Gold GGN.to 0.085 194.64 16.54 0.085 0.0%
3 Bellhaven BHV.v 0.14 121.16 16.36 0.135 -3.6%
4 Glass Earth GEL.v 0.155 104.79 16.24 0.155 0.0%
5 Fancamp Expl. FNC.v 0.125 109.8 14.27 0.130 4.0%
6 AQM Copper AQM.v 0.08 105.57 8.97 0.085 6.3%
7 Copper North COL.v 0.10 58.62 8.21 0.140 40.0%
8 Eagle Star Min. EGE.v 0.125 60.73 7.89 0.130 4.0%
9 Rio Cristal RCZ.v 0.025 149.26 6.72 0.045 80.0%
10 FDG Mining FDG.v 0.13 45.59 6.38 0.140 7.7%
11 Cream Minerals CMA.v 0.03 155.34 5.44 0.035 16.7%
12 Darwin Resources DAR.v 0.20 26.16 4.97 0.190 -5.0%
13 Inca One Res. YEL.v 0.12 34.0 3.40 0.100 -16.7%
14 Firestone Ventures FV.v 0.045 36.32 1.82 0.050 11.1%
15 Netco Silver NEI.v 0.025 47.01 0.71 0.015 -40.0%
Portfolio avg 8.89%
2

Our new feature for 2013 goes live and posts a week one profit too boot. I’m still not totally
sure how this experiment is going to work out and after just one week there won’t be much to
talk about so today we just take a few lines to mark prices. Nine of the components made
upmoves last week (MLN.v, FNC.v, AQM.v, EGE.v, FDG.v, COL.v, CMA.v, RCZ.v, FV.v), two were
unchanged (GGN.to, GEL.v) and the other four went down (BHV.v, DAR.v, IO.v, NEI.v).
The only real comment to make this week follows on from the big weekly percentage winners
and losers. We note that Rio Cristal went up by 80% (with 20% of that move coming from a
5,000 share trade Thursday), Copper North by 40% and others with double figure upmoves.
Meanwhile Inca One lost 16.7% (by trading just 1,000 share on Friday). The point here is that
the percentage gains and losses may often look spectacular at this, the tinycap end of the
market, but until decent volumes flow through any of the names the moves are more show and
of any practical use.
With that in mind here’s a table showing the names in another order. It’s purely subjective,
personal stuff but after considering the typical volumes that have been flowing through our
Lottery Ticket Basket names in the last few weeks and months, I’ve come up with a ranking of
how “tradeable” our companies are. In fact none of them are truly tradeable in a fast and liquid
way suitable for daytrading, larger quantities of cash, etc. However, the top five are reasonably
traded and can offer the potential to be in and out for smaller trades at the bid/asks of any
given moment.
possibly tradeable
Gryphon Gold
Bellhaven
Glass Earth
Fancamp Expl.
Cream Minerals
marginally tradeable
Copper North
Eagle Star Min.
close to untradeable
Marlin Gold
Rio Cristal
Darwin Resources
Netco Silver
untradeable at this time
Firestone Ventures
FDG Mining
Inca One Res.
The other ten (COL.v descending to IO.v) are housed in three different categories, but in
practical terms none of them can be thought of as good vehicles for flippers at the moment.
However, our ranking may change as the year moves on so this ranking is best considered a
snapshot of the present, rather than some sort of definitive verdict.
Regional politics
The new head of Mexico’s Semarnat environment office, Juan José Guerra Abud
He was sworn in last month, but Juan José Guerra Abud, the new Secretary of the Environment
and head of Mexico’s environmental bureau, Semarnat officially took up the reins of his new job
2

on Thursday (16). As such this is a good opportunity for a quick overview of the new head guy
in this key office in the environmental permitting for mining companies in Mexico.
Señor Guerra Abud, just turned 61 years old with a master’s degree in economics (CV here
(17)) has been a public functionary for many years and has headed up several bureaux at both
regional and national federal level, so his CV is right for a post of this standing. He belongs to
the Mexican Green Party (Partido Verde Ecologista de México, or PVEM) which teamed up in
alliance with EPN’s PRI party in last year’s election, therefore his political credentials also fit the
bill. But perhaps most importantly he is known as a close ally and confidante of the new
President, Enrique Peña Nieto, a friendship that’s lasted for well over a decade. The posting of
Guerra Abud therefore meets with the wishes of the smaller alliance party to have some of its
people in positions of power and also keeps the President happy as one of his inner circle of
most trusted friends is in one of the right places (Guerra Abud was part of EPN’s transition team
in the period between the election victory and the possession of power on December 1st, such is
his standing with the new President).
His appointment should be welcomed by mining companies because the now ruling PRI party is
very much pro-mining and Guerra Abud is hardly the type or profile of person who will go
against the wishes of his President if there’s a tough mining vs environment/community call to
be made. Under this context it’s understandable why Goldgroup Mining (GGA.to), for example,
chose to defer its environmental permitting application until such time as the new Semarnat
team was in place. However this doesn’t mean there are slam-dunk wins in the offing for
mining companies, as let’s stay with the GGA example and recall that the regional governor of
Veracruz, locality of the GGA.to Caballo Blanco project, is on record as being firmly opposed to
the project and he’s a PRI man who backed Peña Nieto all the way, too.
The bottom line to the story here is that the appointment of Juan José Guerra Abud to run
Semarnat is probably a positive for mining companies, because he’s a confidante of President
EPN and the new ruling PRI party is on record as wanting to encourage as much as possible
new mining investment in the country.
Colombia sees protests against AngloGold Ashanti’s ‘La Colosa’
English language news service Colombia Reports came up with good coverage (18) on a protest
by locals against the La Colosa mine project. Here’s a chunk of the script to get the idea:
Hundreds of protesters gathered in Doima, a small town in the Tolima department, on the day
before Christmas to demonstrate against their municipality of Piedras being considered for an
AngloGold Ashanti gold ore processing plant. Protesters were concerned that gold ore
processing, which uses large amounts of water and requires chemicals, often including cyanide,
would diminish and pollute local water supplies.
"We only have one source of water, the river," said one protestor. "If they pollute the river and
streams it will be the end of everything [...]. And we are scared because this is a big company
doing business all around the world."
The Piedras municipality is an agricultural area dominated by large-scale rice production and is
being considered for a processing plant for "La Colosa," a gold mining project in Cajamarca,
Tolima with the potential to become the biggest gold mine in South America.
Some residents of Doima also felt that the mining company has not been straightforward with
them, saying they only discovered the reason for the company's presence after they had been in
the municipality several months. "[The company] sent the local authorities a letter around July but
they only said they were going to be carrying out a survey of flora and fauna," the Mayor of
Piedras, Arquimedes Avila Rondon, told Colombia Reports.
2

Colombia Reports then gets the views and quotes from AngloGold Ashanti (AU) as well, so it’s a
balanced article offered and good reporting (click through (18) to read it all). Suffice to say that
opposition to the project is ongoing despite the best attempts of AU to improve its standing in
the community.
Colombia’s concessions system to be unfrozen by June
More news out of Colombia last week (19) was that that the “catastro minero”, perhaps best
translated as the land survey of concessions, that has been under a complete overhaul for over
a year to try and get its system up to date, will be ready by June (and by the sounds of things,
June by the latest). This in turn implies that the concessioning system in Colombia will be
unfrozen and mining companies will be able to apply for and receive new staking grounds and
concessions for the first time
As it happens, The Colombia Gold Letter, a subscription letter, has covered this issue very well
and in depth by snagging an extensive interview that’s published in English in its in its January
edition, out last week. The interview is with the president of the National Mining Agency (ANM,
Maria Constanza Garcia, who is the person in charge of the “catastro” overhaul and therefore
exactly the right person to talk with. And as luck would have it you can get your hands on a
free copy of the normally pay-for Colombia Gold Letter by clicking on link (20) below which will
take you to a tweet from Ian Slater, CEO Red Eagle (RD.v). He was given permission by the
author of The Colombia Gold Letter, Paul Harris to offer up the link for free, so for those who
want to know more that link is highly recommended.
Guatemala’s biggest problem in 2013 is the mining sector
That according to Guatemala political commentator/sociologist and country experts Renzo Rosal
and Cristhians Castillo in this touch-all-bases report from LatAm’s leading business/economics
publication, America Economia (21) that looks forward to the issues that will most affect
Guatemala in 2013. Here’s the part of the report that pertains to mining in Guat:
Traffic Lights: Political scientist Renzo Rosal compares the focal issues of social conflict “with
traffic lights that warn us which of these problems may reach levels of violence.” The red light is
for those conflicts in which the government is seen to be losing the argument and that present a
difficult panorama for the current administration. “They are issues in which no positive results
have been achieved, that generate anxiety and high social expectations”, explains Castillo.
The issue that generates the most concern is the exploitation of natural resources, particularly in
communities where there is opposition to the mining of gold and other metals. On November 19th
last year, locals from Mataquescuintla, Jalapa, who are against the operation of a mine in San
Rafael Las Flores, Santa Rosa, a neighbouring community, set mining company vehicles on fire
and led a day of disturbances.
“There are serious problems in Mataquescuintla, Santa Rosa and Santa Cruz Barrillas
Huehuetenango. Mining activity has reached conflict levels,” said Rosal.
Mexico: A potential bottleneck in sector growth: Lack of qualified professionals
The subject of this report (22) out yesterday Saturday is worth relaying to this audience. The
Mexico Chamber of Mining, Camimex, is concerned about the lack of professionals with earth
sciences qualifications, despite having set up its own scholarships program in 2008 that has so
far seen 1,571 students enter university to study the necessary earth science subjects, 329
graduate and 179 of those achieve formal titles. The report states that the lack of qualified
personnel for mining is a latent threat to growth prospects, though one thing not mentioned is
how a tight jobs market will cause extra cost pressures to companies. The Camimex 2012
annual report is also quoted as saying, “The mining sector must continue to promote earth
science courses so that more young people adopt the mining industry for their professional
development. To this end, in 2011 Camimex added another $1m to the scholarship trust.”
2

Market Watching
Goldgroup Mining (GGA.to) redux
Put simply it rose by over 10%.
We started our recent round of soft coverage on GGA in IKN188 when the stock was 35.5c. It
was then featured last week when we noted insider buying and how the timing is now
roundabout right for the re-application of its enviro permit (see note on Juan José Guerra Abud
in Regional Politics above). Monday December 31st saw trading between 35.5c and 37.5c, but
with the new year came new buying and GGA closed at 40c for the week, the highest prices
we’ve seen since early October.
Let’s repeat, this isn’t a stock I’d consider holding for an extended period, but there does seem
to be a set-up forming here that may allow for a quick win on near-term news catalyst.
A preview of Rio Alto Mining’s (RIO.to) 4q12 production figures
The shorter version here is that I think RIO is about to post production figures that are slightly
lower than I previously forecast, but it will meet its 2012 guidance of between 190,000 and
210,000 oz Au and should guide strongly for 2013.
Now for the longer version: I confess that I’m a bit late to the story and playing catch-up,
because the October 2012 production figure details for mining companies in Peru were
published by the Ministry of Energy
RIO.to: Monthly gold production figures
and Mining (MEM) on December 27th
(NB: Nov and Dec '12 estimates)
(23) and I only got round to checking 25000 24401
them last week. On doing so I saw 22500 20144 19560
t o h p a e t r a L ti a o n A , r p e r n o a d u S c . e A d , 1 t 2 h , e 8 8 R 7 I o O z g m o i l n d i n in g 1 2 7 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 16692 17639 15426 15091 15998 17039 15000
15000 12887 13000
October which looks like this next to
12500
the previous months at the mine. 10000
7500
As you can see, that 12.8887 ounce 5000
2500
month of October is plenty lower than
0
previous months and indicates that
RIO hasn’t started shifting to higher
throughput levels or finished mining
the lower grading Ethel pit (which is
due mined out by end 2012, according to the last operational update from the company). That
was confirmed when I chased up on the story with that somebody close to the story at the La
Arena mine who has been consulted previously and has proven accurate (no names no
packdrill), but I was told that the variable nature of a dump leach operation means that trying
2
21naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco tse
von
tse
ced
Ozt Au
source: MEM

to extrapolate average production levels from a single month can be misleading, which is fair
comment. On further prodding, it seems likely that RIO will hit its 2012 guidance almost exactly
in the middle and from that you can see the above guesstimates for production in November
and December. If the last two months of 2012 come in as guessed in the chart (13k for
November, 16k for December) is would tot the year up to just under 203,000 oz gold. That’s
about 7k ounces less than your author’s own last adjustment guesstimate.
The last time we carefully covered numbers from RIO was IKN185 dated November 18th, the
edition when we looked at the 3q12 financials recently booked. It’s worth recalling from the
analysis that 3q12 saw around 8000 oz of gold produced buy not sold in 3q12 (for accounting
reasons only, the sales weren’t booked in time) so 4q12 will benefit from those ounces sold.
Here’s how we put that in IKN185:
“If we take RIO’s average price for 3q12 of $1,611/oz gold as our estimated price, the
addition cash to the 4q12 top line is between and $12.94m and $16.02m (low end
8,032 oz as per the pre-announced sales, or high end 9,944 oz as per 3q12
production), or perhaps RIO will elect to use them to pay off its forward gold sales
facility even further. Time will tell on that, but the difference in expected and achieved
revenues in 3q12 is simply explained and not a problem.”
Adding 8k ounces to a softer-than-we expected 4q12 will go a long way to bolster the
company’s year end financial position (and frankly I’m not that bothered if RIO decides to book
those ounces via top-line cash of via forward gold sales facility payoffs, the balance sheet gets
its benefit either way). So even though 4q12 isn’t going to be as good as I originally expected
(probably my fault more than RIO’s), it’s main objective of meeting guidance will happen and
we can look forward to a better 2013 in guidance. That’s because we’re very likely to hear that
mining at the Ethel zone is now done, which also means that it was be all systems go for the
full throughput upgrade to 36ktpd as the Ethel area is part of the real estate needed for the
dump leaching of the new higher production levels. Couple this with the return to the higher
grading rock (we’re estimating an average grade of ~0.8 g/t Au in 2013, which compares to the
~0.5 g/t Ethel rock we’ve seen mined in the last few months) and we could soon see RIO
return a 70,000 oz gold quarter, all being well.
Along with 2013 production guidance, there are two other catalysts in the pipeline in the near
future of RIO. Firstly we can expect an updated resource count for the oxide gold at La Arena
and as there have been positive developments in both grade (via reconciliation) and new zones
discovered since the last resource count, chances are that we’re looking at a pretty substantial
addition to the current numbers. Then secondly we can expect initial drilling results from the
promising La Colorada target, South of the today’s operations but still very much a part of the
big La Arena land package concession (and with surface rights already secured via purchase,
which bodes well for what we can expect and also gives an idea of the high regard RIO has for
the project).
The bottom line to our update is that we should expect somewhat lower production for the
4q12 period than originally forecast on these pages. However 200k oz for 2012 would still be a
perfectly acceptable result, hits guidance in the middle, and as sales should outstrip production
by at least 8,000 oz (and potentially 9k oz, but this all depends on whether RIO pre-pays more
of the forward sales contract) the financials will be strong. Then comes guidance for 2013 and
after that, we have catalyst-level newsflow in the near-term pipeline.
Conclusion
IKN192 is done, we close with bullet points:
• 2013 has started well enough, Fed minutes scare-ette aside, and although a market
rebound after that plainly awful tax-loss December were expected it was nice to see
2

them start to appear. Further improvement in gold that follows on from late Friday’s
collective decision to ignore the hawks on Ben’s team would be rather welcome.
• Today was copper day and we spent most of the edition talking Cu. It’s good to get all
this out the door as next week I have a PM company I’m keen on highlighting.
• It’s my eldest daughter’s ninth birthday tomorrow, which is a good thing. She now has
virtually the same shoe size as my wife and uses her sandals, which is just a little bit
scary
The top long-term pick is Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to). I thank you in advance for any feedback
sent in. Flash updates will be sent promptly if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Otto
Footnotes, Appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) http://www.novacopper.com/i/pdf/presentations/2012-11-16_NCQ_CormarkMarketing.pdf
(2) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/reservoir-minerals-drills-266-metres-160025454.html
(3) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/reservoir-minerals-drills-160-metres-135600851.html
(4) http://www.oracleminingcorp.com./_resources/pdfs/tech_report_April_2012.pdf
(5) http://www.curisresources.com/i/pdf/CUV_Presentation.pdf
(6) http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2012/06/curis-resources-cuvto-run-by-wankers.html
(7) http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2013/01/galway-metals-gwmv-small-headsup-for.html
(8) http://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/38995/things-coming-together-nicely-for-minera-irl-says-
chairman-38995.html
(9) http://www.canadianinsider.com/node/7?ticker=FCV
(10) http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/01/04/column-russell-metals-asia-idINL4N0A90HE20130104
(11) http://www.gatoencerrado.net/store/noticias/70/70571/detalle.htm
(12) http://elcomercio.pe/actualidad/1518235/noticia-pese-protestas-reanudan-perforaciones-exploratorias-proyecto-
canariaco_1
(13) https://twitter.com/incakolanews/status/286874736372379649
(14) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/novacoppers-largest-shareholder-adds-additional-130000078.html
(15) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/nevada-copper-corp-status-congressional-140000675.html
(16) http://www.info7.com.mx/a/noticia/368253/normal/ultimo/24
2

(17) http://sitl.diputados.gob.mx/LXI_leg/curricula.php?dipt=495
(18) http://colombiareports.com/colombia-news/news/27573-anglogold-ashanti-gold-mine-spurs-protests-in-central-
colombia.html
(19) http://www.portalminero.com/display/NOT/2012/12/26/Catastro+minero+colombiano,+listo+para+junio
(20) https://twitter.com/ianpaulslater/status/287252921668747264
(21) http://www.americaeconomia.com/politica-sociedad/politica/guatelama-las-senales-de-alerta-que-deben-
enfrentarse-en-2013
(22) http://www.oem.com.mx/elsoldemexico/notas/n2830747.htm
(23) http://www.mem.gob.pe/descripcion.php?idSector=1&idTitular=5187
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2012
Closed in 2012 closed close PPS
Soltoro SOL.v jan'12 C$0.87 07-nov-11 C$0.94 8.0% cash moved to BCM.v
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to feb'12 C$0.84 13-oct-10 C$0.98 16.7% trade closed on ELG.v offer
Minefinders MFN feb'12 U$11.68 17-nov-11 U$14.80 26.7% target made, trade closed
Iron Creek IRN.v mar'12 C$0.58 26-sep-10 C$0.31 -46.6% time up on small bad trade
U.S. Silver USA.to apr'12 C$2.18 15-mar-12 C$1.86 -14.7% ST trade no good, cut loss
Augusta Res. AZC.to may'12 C$3.10 29-ene-12 C$2.07 -33.2% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Bellhaven BHV.v may'12 C$0.50 22-sep-10 C$0.28 -44.0% new mgmt not impressive
Zincore Metals ZNC.to may'12 C$0.325 29-jul-11 C$0.17 -47.7% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Soltoro SOL.v may'12 C$0.70 18-mar-11 C$0.41 -41.4% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
U.S. Silver USA.to aug'12 C$1.78 27-jul-12 C$1.36 -23.6% fail ST trade close pre split
Estrella Gold EST.v aug'12 C$0.91 27-mar-11 C$0.14 -84.6% Closed on port realignment
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'12 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.32 397.2% sell call $6.17/ Mar25
Strait Minerals SRD.v oct'12 C$0.125 09-dic-11 C$0.12 -4.0% closing coverage til FY13
Sunward Res SWD.to oct'12 C$1.47 13-mar-11 C$1.21 -17.7% sold, took loss
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'12 U$21.47 09-sep-12 U$17.40 19.0% Short trade closed
Yellowhead Min. YMI.to nov'12 C$1.00 01-abr-12 C$0.63 -37.0% sold, took loss
Primero Mining PPP nov'12 U$7.26 07-oct-12 U$6.73 7.3% Short trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v nov'12 C$3.38 07-nov-11 C$3.72 10.1% Took small profit
Vena Resources VEM.to dec'12 C$0.70 31-may-09 C$0.18 -74.3% Failed trade (caps F)
Galway Res GWY.v dec'12 C$2.19 24-nov-12 C$2.30 5.0% closed good ST arb trade
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2011
Closed in 2011 closed close PPS
Sunward Res SWD.v jan'11 C$1.05 21-nov-10 C$1.63 55.2% target made, trade closed
Serengeti Res SIR.v mar'11 C$0.245 05-dec-10 C$0.285 16.3% sold pre-tgt, ST trade fail
Fronteer Gold FRG apr'11 U$2.37 03-may-09 U$15.24 543.0% buyout, trade closed
Minefinders MFN apr'11 U$9.09 07-nov-10 U$16.89 85.8% target made, trade closed
Metalline Min. MMG may'11 U$1.04 26-jan-11 U$0.89 -14.4% exit, resource disappointed
Peregrine Met PGM.to jul'11 C$0.87 06-mar-11 C$2.60 198.9% buyout offer, closed
Dynasty Metals DMM.to jul'11 C$4.20 03-may-09 C$2.85 -32.1% Sold. Fail. Move on.
Aura Silver AUU.v aug'11 C$0.22 13-oct-10 C$0.16 -36.4% Bad pick. Take loss
U.S. Silver USA.v aug'11 C$0.52 26-jan-11 C$0.71 36.5% closed to make room
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'11 C$2.80 12-may-11 C$4.27 52.5% target made, trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v sep'11 C$3.80 27-may-11 C$4.17 9.7% macro sell call victim
Minefinders MFN sep'11 U$14.70 10-aug-11 U$15.15 3.1% macro sell call victim
Great Panther GPR.to sep'11 C$3.03 22-aug-11 C$2.64 -12.9% macro sell call victim
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'11 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.36 400.9% sold 20%, macro sell call
Focus Ventures FCV.v nov'11 C$0.40 20-apr-10 C$0.20 -50.0% cut losses, bad trade
Regulus Res. REG.v dec'1 C$1.17 14-aug-11 C$0.52 -55.6% cut on news of poor 43-101
2009 and 2010 closed positions in appendices below
2

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2010
Closed in 2010 closed close PPS
B2Gold Corp BTO.to Jan'10 C$0.88 08-nov-09 C$1.49 68.2% target made, trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v Jan'10 C$0.18 23-aug-09 C$0.40 122.2% target made, trade closed
MAG Silver MVG mar'10 U$5.60 23-nov-09 U$7.28 30.0% closed in pdac week
Riverside Res RRI.v mar'10 C$0.435 20-sep-09 C$0.60 37.9% closed in pdac week
Amarillo Gold AGC.v mar'10 C$0.81 31-may-09 C$0.70 -13.6% closed in pdac week
B2Gold Corp BTO.to apr'10 C$1.24 18-feb-10 C$1.50 21.0% target made, trade closed
Lumina Copper LCC.v apr'10 C$0.84 14-jun-09 C$1.55 51.2% total position now sold
Troy Resources TRY.to may'10 C$1.10 03-may-09 C$2.25 104.5% sold on negative results
AuEx Ventures XAU.to may'10 C$2.51 24-may-09 C$3.38 34.7% trade closed
Nevada Copper NCU.to jun'10 C$3.27 14-mar-10 C$2.03 -37.9% need to lower Cu exposure
Carpathian Gold CPN.to jun'10 C$0.39 14-mar-10 C$0.35 -10.3% too exposed to cap raising
Amerix PM Corp APM.v jun'10 C$0.065 08-nov-09 C$0.05 -23.1% victim of macro bear
Antares Minerals ANM.v jun'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$2.10 47.9% sold half
Vena Resources VEM.to jun'10 C$0.37 31-may-09 C$0.23 -37.8% sold half
Minera Andes MAI.to sep'10 C$0.75 28-jul-10 C$0.95 26.7% ST trade closed
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to sep'10 C$0.52 01-aug-10 C$0.75 44.2% target made, trade closed
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'10 C$1.45 25-may-10 C$2.01 34.5% target made, trade closed
Blue Sky Uran BSK.v oct'10 C$0.41 19-may-10 C$0.22 -46.3% v small v bad trade closed
Dia Bras Expl DIB.v oct'10 C$0.14 30-aug-09 C$0.35 150.0% target made, trade closed
S. Amer. Silver SAC.to nov'10 C$1.38 24-oct-10 C$1.60 -15.9% loss on short, small fail
Ventana Gold VEN.to nov'10 C$7.92 27-jun-10 C$13.51 70.6% trade closed on buyout
Lumina Copper LCC.v nov'10 C$1.42 11-aug-10 C$3.65 157.0% trade closed
Antares Minerals ANM.v dec'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$8.40 491.5% trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.v dec'10 C$0.69 23-mar-10 C$2.16 213.0% trade closed
Coro Mining COP.to dec'10 C$0.585 03-oct-10 C$1.24 112.0% target made, trade closed
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2009
Closed positions closed closing PPS
Cardero Res CDY/CDU.to May'09 U$1.20 03-May-09 U$0.87 -27.5% sold on negative news
Eastmain Res. ER.to May'09 C$1.04 06-May-09 C$1.315 26.4% trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v May'09 C$0.165 03-May-09 C$0.235 42.4% trade closed
Latin Amer Min. LAT.v May'09 C$0.12 03-May-09 C$0.158 29.2% trade closed
Aquiline Res. AQI.to July'09 C$2.03 16-Jun-09 C$1.68 -17.2% took loss, bad timing
Chariot Resources CHD.to Aug'09 C$0.20 12-Jul-09 C$0.415 107.5% trade closed
Castle Gold CSG.v Sep'09 C$0.64 02-Aug-09 C$0.60 -6.3% ST trade didn't work out
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to Sep'09 C$2.30 12-May-09 C$4.50 95.7% profit taken
Los Andes Copper LA.v Sep'09 C$0.09 21-Jun-09 C$0.09 0% trade closed
Pediment Gold PEZ.to Oct'09 C$0.80 09-Aug-09 C$1.00 25.0% trade closed
Minera Andes MAI.to Oct'09 C$0.68 03-May-09 C$0.71 4.4% too much bad news
Dynasty Metals DMM.to Nov'09 C$4.18 03-May-09 C$6.01 43.8% half sold
Rusoro Mining RML.v Nov'09 C$0.55 03-May-09 C$0.57 3.6% underperformed
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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