IKN #185Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 185, November 18th 2012
Contents
This Week: Short week part one, Short week part two.
Fundamental Analysis: Third quarter results review of Aurcana (AUN.v), Rio Alto (RIO.to)
and United Silver Corp (USC.to).
Stocks to Follow: Overview, Bear Creek (BCM.v), Aurcana (AUN.v), OceanaGold (OGC.to),
Lachlan Star (LSA.to), Rio Alto (RIO.to), Lupaka (LPK.to), Minera IRL (IRL.to), United Silver
Corp (USC.to).
Copper Basket: Overview, Augusta Resources (AZC.to).
Regional Politics: Overview, Peru: Informal miners to strike as from tomorrow, Chile: BHP
underscores the message in IKN184, Chile: Teck lays off at Quebrada Blanca, Colombia:
Anglogold ratchets up, Peru: Gold Fields(GFI)/Buenaventura(BVN) Chucapaca project in South
Peru under doubt due to costs, Guatemala: The local vote against Tahoe (THO.to) (TAHO) and
others, MAG Silver (MVG) (MAG.to) given 48 hours to get out of Cinco de Mayo.
Market Watching: B2Gold (BTO.to) back at a buyable price, Fortuna (FVI.to) (FSM) goes
under $5, Darwin Resources (DAR.v) update, Orko Silver (OK.v) retail pump gathers pace,
Exeter Resources (XRC.to) (XRA) redux, Gold Resource Corp (GORO) last call, U.S. Silver & Gold
(USA.to) quarter, Jaguar Mining (JAG.to) (JAG) 3q12 earnings weren’t good.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or given to any
third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Short week (part one)
Due to U.S. Thanksgiving, the week to come will be a relatively quiet one as U.S. markets close
fully Thursday and operate on much reduced volume until 1pm local time Friday. However,
there is one potentially interesting macro policy event to look forward to, as Ben Bernanke
speaks Tuesday lunch time at the Economic Club of New York to the assembled glitterati. The
title of the speech is The Economic Recovery and Economic Policy” so expect Fedwatchers to be
scouring every comma-laden sentence for clues.
Short week (part two)
The week in which it would have been really useful to have some short positions open in junior
mining companies came just after I’d closed my short positions in GORO and PPP. Humph.
The drop, as illustrated by our “five days of...” regular post on Saturday and reproduced here,
seems to have been set off by weakness in gold and silver, but was magnified manifold times
by mining stocks of all shapes and sizes, with just a few notable exceptions managing to escape
downdraft (and a quick hoorah for IRL.to at this point).
1

As for causes, we’ve all read about that there good ol’ fiscal cliff and we should all know by now
that Canadian tax loss selling season is now gearing up. There’s also the potential for new tax
brackets in the USA as from next year, as reported in a million places but done quite well here
(1) at Business Insider (not my usual idea of a place to get wise, but they do decent stuff on
occasion). Read the whole thing for full context, but the biased shock! horror! part of the story
that’s got people up in arms is neatly encapsulated in this short sentence:
In short, unless Congress compromises, the top bracket for federal dividend
taxes will nearly triple on January 1, from 15% to 43.4%.
As Iwnattos points out (2) (it’s where I got the heads-up on that BI piece), chances of that kind
of tax rate hike on dividends 1) passing undiluted through congress and 2) ever being fully
applied are unlikely to say the least. But in a market that wants and is actively looking for
reasons to sell off stocks and get into nice safe (?) cash, it’s the type of thing that can set of
chunky sell-offs of the kind we saw through the hump last week.
I’d like to offer up more advice about the tax-loss selling season or the very-near-term jitters,
but I can’t. That’s because I don’t share those jitters and I’m looking at a timescale beyond
what happens in the next few days. However, I am affected by this because 1) I’m now faced
with some very interesting potential entry points for likeable producer stocks and 2) I don’t
know whether to buy right now or wait a while to see if they get even cheaper. In some cases,
such as AUN.v and USC.to last week (see Flash update appendix 2) it was an easy and natural
space to add to positions already taken, but as seen below today in ‘Market Watching’, I’m
stuck wondering whether a purchase of B2Gold (BTO.to) is good now or better in a few
days...or whether I’ve already missed the best entry point (and that wouldn’t be the first time in
that stock).
Anyway, I’m now rambling. Let’s get some real work done.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Today’s Fundies section follows on from the Flash update of Thursday November 16th (see
appendix 2 below) and considers the numbers posted by three of our covered stocks last week,
namely Rio Alto (RIO.to), United Silver Corp (USC.to) and Aurcana (AUN.v).
2

Aurcana Corp (AUN.v) 3q12 numbers
Before getting down to business, I want to share a mail received on Monday from reader ‘CW’
(slightly redacted to protect innocent and guilty alike):
I am a subscriber, personally follow Aurcana very closely and was
pleased to read your recent coverage on them. Additionally, I have been
doing my own research on the company that I publish on my blog. You
probably already know all the stuff I present there, but I thought there
might be some tidbits you could find useful. Anyway, if you do get a
chance to give it a look, I'd be interested in any comments you might
have.
http://www.investmentrevaluationcatalyst.com/
Points arising:
1) Before that mail arrived I didn’t know the website existed, nor that it was being run by
a subscriber to The IKN Weekly either. It’s what comes of not dredging through the
internet to crib off other people’s ideas, I suppose.
2) The site is a good source of information on several stocks but particularly good (in fact
it’s excellent ) on Aurcana and I strongly recommend it to any of you that want to know
more about the company.
3) No CW, I didn’t know all the stuff that’s on your blog and I’ve learned from your
writings too, so a public thank you for offering up the link. I’ve been particularly
impressed with the depth of knowledge CW shows on the La Negra mine and deposit
which has reaffirmed my positive view on what AUN.v is doing there.
4) In subsequent mail exchanges with CW last week, we both agree that the company’s
tendency to over-promise is the Achilles’ Heel to the story. However, from the analysis
and calculations offered up by CW he is more optimistic about the company and its
future, as I’m sure you’ll see on visiting the site. Perhaps I’m simply more (too?)
cynical, but for the time being I prefer to stick with my highly conservative model (that
elicited other responses and feedback along the lines of “wow, that’s really lowball this
time Mark!” from a couple of you) that still shows AUN as a valid investment option. I’ll
leave the disappointments for other people.
5) CW and I have different objectives in our positions in AUN.v, which also might explain
point 4) above. It seems that CW is in for a longer haul and is looking for the big,
multiple-bagger win from AUN.v. Personally I reiterate my intention to use AUN.v as a
near-term play and benefit from what I see as a ‘sweet spot’ for investment that can
ride a re-rating and upwards revaluation of the company as it brings its second mine,
Shafter, on line. I’ll be happy with hitting my more moderate target and moving on,
CW’s patience is made of stronger stuff.
The rest I’ll let you discover at CW’s highly informative and highly recommended site that
covers AUN.v in detail (3). Go look for yourself
and get wiser on this stock, as I did after AUN.v: Assets Breakdown per qtr
reading the material on offer. Also, at some 200
point during the week I’ll be plugging CW’s 180
quality site on the open blog, but without 160
140
specifically mentioning that I’m long AUN.
120
100
Now let’s get to the results and we do those 80
via the usual suspects charts. Assets look like 60
40
this and if you’re wondering where all the cash
20
has been going at AUN, you can see it right 0
here. AUN has spent it all on fixed assets, with
the capitalized costs of work at La Negra and
Shafter swelling its overall asset value.
3
90q4 01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
fixed
other current
cash

Liabilities continue to stay under control and more than reasonable for this type of junior, the
change coming back in 4q10 when it rid
itself of the SLW stream and moved to take
all silver price upside for itself at the cost of
adding more shares. Nothing different in
3q12, bar a slight uptick in current liabilities
to $16m...no biggie.
Working capital came in slightly better than
I expected at $10.54m, which was about
the best piece of news from this set of
quarterlies. It means that AUN is much
more likely to have the cash it needs to get
to Shafter commercial production (now
scheduled for December 2012) without
needing any further external finance.
AUN.v: Working Capital per qtr
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
4
90q4 01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3 tse21q4 tse31q1
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
AUN.v: Debt Breakdown per qtr
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
And on this working cap chart today, I’m pencilling what I’d like to see from AUN i the next two
quarters to come. The time for the big capex and build-out is now coming to a close and what
we want to see from the balance sheet more than any other metric is a working cap that starts
its upwards climb, indicative not only of a company that can run an operating profit but can
translate that to a bottom line financial profit. This will mark the major turning point in AUN’s
fortunes and it is, in a nutshell, why your author has bought at this time. Up to late 2012 AUN
has sold a promise of profits in the future, but when Shafter goes commercial later this quarter,
it will stop being a financial liability and start being a true asset that generates wealth for its
stakeholders.
Shares out are up to 457m, with a few
options/warrants exercises along the way
moving the count up by nearly 2m since
the last company literature and 6.3m
since 2q12. Meanwhile, the build-out
expenses look like this below.
90q4 01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT debt
current debt
AUN.v: Shares Out
500
400
300
200
100
0
90q4 01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim

Main mine building expenses, 2010 to date
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1q10 2q10 3q10 4q10 1q11 2q11 3q11 4q11 1q12 2q12 3q12
source: company filings
5
m$U
mineral property expenditures
purchases of property, plant, equipment
On the Conference Call AUN said that the big ticket items for growth at La Negra and start-up
at Shafter were now all done and minimal expenditures were anticipated going forward. We
may see a final bar of expenses in 4q12, but come FY13 this part of the company’s outgoings
will be done and dusted. Less cash for equipment, more for bottom lines.
On operations AUN returned these financials:
AUN.v: Quarterly Earnings overview
20
15
10
5
0
-5
The general consensus from the chattering classes was that AUN did ok in the quarter but no
better than that. It certainly didn’t put in a sparkling quarter and hadn’t produced as much as
was first expected from the La Negra upgrading for those anal ysts wanting a quarter that hit it
out the ballpark, but I’m fine with what I see here personally. I again return to my default
position of this management team being forever too optimistic about what they can achieve in
what timeframe. When 2012 becomes 2013 we’ll want to see real, larger scale profits get
booked, but 3q12 (and to some extent 4q12) are the transition quarters, so we can’t and
shouldn’t read too much into them.
One thing that caught the attention was that AUN didn’t sell nearly as much metal as it
produced in the quarter. It caught the attention of the aforementioned ‘CW’ in our exchanges
on the stock too and as part of our dialogue I put together this very simple chart (below) that
tries to gauge the revenue apparently held back from 3q12 numbers that will, presumably at
least, give an extra kick to the company’s 4q12 results. We have the 3q12 payable production
figures in the first column, then the sales as registered, then the difference between the two
(base metals in tonnes, silver in troy ounces). I then add in a conservative type guess for the
average market price for each metal in our current quarter and then the final column does the
math and comes up with how much cash AUN might get from the 3q12 excess when added to
the normal 4q12 run of mine production. The best guess answer is that AUN has $4.06m
waiting in the wings, which would be very useful cash at a time like this when money is needed
to get Shafter into commercial production.
01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
AUN.v: Op. Earnings vs Net Earnings, per qtr
7
revenues 6
COGS
5
Op. Earnings
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
Op. Earnings
Net

Unsold production at AUN, 3q12
3q prod 3q sale diff avg $ 4q12 guess est rev boost 4q12 ($m)
Zn (mt) 2120 1574 546 0.85 1.02
Cu (mt) 732 566 166 3.4 1.24
Pb (mt) 553 481 72 0.95 0.15
Ag (oz) 376687 323825 52862 31 1.64
Total 4.06
With luck and if all goes well, come this time next year $4m in retained or extra revenues in any
given quarter will hardly be noticed. However, 4q12’s cash position is still of some concern as
depletion happens before the whole company goes cash flow positive, so this is a nice thing
today.
The bottom line to AUN’s quarter (we’re cutting it short here) is that I was happy enough with
what I saw to have taken advantage of Wednesday’s sell-off to buy more AUN and get my cost
average down to $1.07 (having bought Monday as planned at $1.12 and $1.13).
Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) 3q12 numbers
The results from RIO last week were unimpressive on the headline numbers (as several of you
noted on writing in), but scratch the surface and it’s really not that bad at all. The Flash update
on Thursday (appendix 2) summed up my position so here comes a bit of flesh on those bones,
but before we dive in a word about “the reassuring analyst” meme. It’s all too common to see a
set of apparently disappointing results from a producing mining company (senior or junior) and
then see its fan club or supporters, retail pro or otherwise, rush to a company’s defence and
point to this-or-that mitigating circumstance that explains that-or-this miss...and how we
shouldn’t be worried...and how any subsequent sell-off should be looked on as one of those
cute and wonderful buying opportunities. I really don’t try to do that, as especially with the
producing miners you have to let the numbers speak for themselves. I haven’t been afraid to
call a spade a spade in previous analyses and won’t be afraid to do so in the future either, there
are no sacred cows on our ‘Stocks to Follow’ list and even a Top Pick company isn’t immune
from an immediate reversal and decision to sell if it doesn’t come up to scratch (recall FVI back
in March, that’s exactly what happened). However in this case I’m happy, perfectly happy about
the numbers report by RIO. Reasons for being relaxed about RIO today include correct and
expected levels of production, deferral of sales and in-line costs that again provided no
surprise, but the main reason is (once again) that 3q12 was always going to be “the soft one”
and anyone judging RIO on this quarter doesn’t know what the hell they’re looking at. Because
of that, rather than go into great detail here are the main datapoints and differences that
showed up in 3q12:
The first one was sales and revenue. Back in its early October NR RIO announced (4) quarterly
production of 47,010 oz Au and then sales like this:
“Sales in the third quarter of 45,098 ounces of gold at an average price of $1,600 per
ounce generated cash sales proceeds of $72.2 million.”
When the 3q12 financials come out, we find that sales were in fact just 37,066 oz and revenues
$60.9m (at a price of $1,611/oz), so what went wrong? Well nothing really, it’s more a financial
thing that saw time run out on booking revenues in the 3q12 period and the accountants
getting stickly and say that RIO can’t in fact book all the revenues it expected to book.
Therefore we’re simply going to see the gold sales booked as extra in the 4q12 report and
when your author asked CEO Alex Black about this, he said that measures will be taken to
minimize this effect in 4q12 and beyond which is just a blah-di-blah way of saying that we can
fully expect all the 4q12 production to be sold and booked in the period. Therefore 4q12 will get
a nice boost in revenues from those “missing” ounces. If we take RIO’s average price for 3q12
of $1,611/oz gold as our estimated price, the addition cash to the 4q12 top line is between and
$12.94m and $16.02m (low end 8,032 oz as per the pre-announced sales, or high end 9,944 oz
as per 3q12 production), or perhaps RIO will elect to use them to pay off its foward gold sales
6

facility even further. Time will tell on that, but the difference in expected and achieved
revenues in 3q12 is simply explained and not a problem.
Next, costs. As mentioned in the Flash update Thursday, there was dismay about the headline
cash cost number as published in the NR of $690/oz, but if we consider that price is derived
from gold sold and gold sales were artificially low, then the true costs for 3q12 weren’t bad at
all. If we consider the evolution of the COGS line item in RIO’s financials in 2012, here’s how
they look (green chart left).
U$m RIO: COGS/qtr U$/oz Au RIO: COGS per Oz Au produced
35 30.918 600 526 564
30 26.545 500 452
25.273
25
400
20
300
15
200
10
100
5
0 0
1q12 2q12 3q12 1q12 2q12 3q12
source: company filings source: company filings
So in fact mine site costs in absolute dollar terms dropped by over $4m at La Arena compared
to the 2q12 that everyone liked so much. Now we can take those numbers and do a COGS per
ounce produced calculation like this (red chart right). We see costs of goods sold have risen per
ounce, but that’s what you’d expect from moving the lower grade mineral that was always the
plan in 3q12. Also, spending $564/oz at your mine (note, G&A, exploration, other company
niceties are not included in this) to produce an ounce of gold means you’re making a tidy profit
on each ounce, whichever way you cut it.
Meanwhile, RIO build for the future and not just via the sulphide project that will get its
feasibility study next year. In 3q12 RIO also reported land acquisition costs that took cash away
from the balance sheet. Here we see the jump
(note that up to 2q12 RIO booked land as part of RIO: Land and other mine assets
25
“other mining assets” but now it’s a separate line
item, so here for comparative purposes we add
20
the two together for 3q12). This land purchase is
connected to the ‘La Colorada’ target, some 9km 15
South of the current operations and on the RIO
10
La Arena concession, which the company has
been particularly keen about recently and will 5
start a full scale drilling program this quarter. The
0
decision to pay for the land and get uninhibited
4q11 1q12 2q12 3q12
surface rights and access should be taken as a
other = camp office + accomodation
big hint to a good future for this target.
This quick overview of selective information fro the RIO quarter explains just why RIO did
better than the average junior from Wednesday onwards. Once the market had got over the
the “ugh” feeling from topline numbers that didn’t make expectations and started check out the
workings of the quarter, those that want to accumulate RIO began to look at the weakness
Tuesday and especially Wednesday (when all boats sank) as a buying opportunity; not a rahrah
anal yst “hey cheap here get in everybody!” type of buying op, but one back up by the
fundamentals. If RIO has a softer than expected 4q12 and then misses on its expected
throughput and production increases in 1q13, then we’ll need to consider its future and our
share price target more carefully. This is always-programmed soft quarter of 2012 leaves little
or nothing to worry about and I can easily reiterate our Top Pick call on the stock.
7

United Silver Corp (USC.to) 3q12 numbers
The third and last update today and the simplest to cover, as this is a small company that we’ve
bought more for its underlying financial strength and potential as a M&A event than for its
sparkling results in any given quarter. Still, it’s useful to keep our pulse on results and check to
see if the thing is functioning as expected so here goes.
First to the operating, money generating side of USC and overall revenues were $4.21m for the
quarter which compares to your author’s forecast of $4.65m as per the NOBS report of IKN182.
Likewise earnings came to just under $800k which was about 100k lower than your author’s
best guess of just under $900k in that report. In other words I was a little hot on my
expectations but it really wasn’t that bad for a first pass at the company. To mitigate slightly my
operating costs estimates were $150,000 higher than the company reported $3.45m. What’s
more important here is that the functioning, cash flowing subsidiaries of USC are working more
or less as expected and deliver the type of free ash flow that justifies the company’s current
sub-$18m market cap on their own, in your author’s considered opinion at least. This is the
type of operational result that backstops our investment in USC at current prices and means
there really is limited downside to the price. I like heads-you-win-tails-you-don’t-lose trading
alternatives like this.
Here’s the breakdown of revenues and earnings into the three subsidiary companies and if you
care enough to check the results of 3q12 against the charts offered up in IKN182’s report, I
think we were pretty close overall.
USC: Revenues from operations, per quarter USC: Gross profit from operations, per qtr
$m $m
5 Fabrication & Machine Services 1 Fabrication & Machine Services
4.5 Contracting Services 0.9 Contracting Services
Mine Services 0.8 Mine Services
4
0.7
3.5 0.6
3 0.5
2.5 0.4
0.3
2
0.2
1.5 0.1
1 0
0.5 -0.1
-0.2
0
-0.3
1q11 2q11 3q11 4q11 1q12 2q12 3q12
1q11 2q11 3q11 4q11 1q12 2q12 3q12
source: company filings source: company filings
8

Moving over to assets and liabilities, USC moved the fixed asset write down as mentioned in
IKN182 to the balance sheet as expected. Apart from that there’s little to report here.
USC.to: Assets Breakdown per qtr
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Working capital interests us more (as is often the case in explorecos) and here we see that
things are getting a little thin. Even though USC made
a tidy profit from its operating subsidiaries, it spent
another $1.76m on exploration activities (which was
as expected, the company having moved he
contractor force over to Crescent to dig tunnels, re-
open faces as reported etc) that has depleted working
cap to just over $1m as at 3q12 end. The implication
is pretty clear that USC will need to get some more
funds on board in some way or another, but as it has
its financing partner Hale on board that’s not going to
be surprised by this depletion (recall head guy Hale is
on the BoD at USC) and clearly has a longer term plan
here, the chances of USC not being able to raise
necessary funds are slim. The cash may come as a longer-term loan, it may come via a share
sale. One way or another it’s going to come, however.
One thing that augurs for the future in USC’s 3q12 numbers is this right, its investment
activities compared to previous quarters. The company shelled out the sum total of $14,000 on
the items we previously covered and basically
confirmed that it has done what it needed to do on
this score. It’s a good thing, because now USC will
be able to concentrate expenditures on exploration
of Crescent and not spend its cash on the other
parts of its plan, for example the mill facility or the
purchases it needed to make for its mine. On this
score the heavy lifting seems to have been
completed and we’ll now look for USC to enjoy the
fruits of its expenses.
The bottom line to this abridged update on USC
and its 3q12 numbers is that the company seems
to be executing its plan well enough. Revenues from its subsidiaries were reasonable and
useful, exploration is ongoing at Crescent. We wait to see how the company will raise cash for
its 2013 operations (and what part Hale will want to play in that) and we also look forward to
results of its work at Crescent that aims to get the test-level mining into operation and cash
flow to fund things. The timing on that will be important, as the longer it waits, the more USC
will need to find from other financing sources (e.g. loan, share placement). However, we
continue to like this tinycap above many others because at current prices (and that useful
internal cash flow) downside is limited and upside from a result at Crescent could be very
lucrative. Happy holders.
9
90q4 01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
USC.to: Debt Breakdown per qtr
10
9
fixed
other current 8 cash 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
90q4 01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT debt
current debt
º
USC.to: Working Capital per qtr
9
8
7
6
5
4
3 2
1
0
-1
-2
90q4 01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
USC: Investment activities, per quarter
$m
6 additions to mining interest
5 invest in mill facility
property purchases
4
3
2
1
0
1q11 2q11 3q11 4q11 1q12 2q12 3q12
source: company filings

Stocks to Follow
We have 13 open positions. In the last seven days, two of them made gains (VEM.to, IRL.to)
and of those two only IRL can be spoken of in truly positive terms thanks to its trendbusting
15.7% gain. In other words it was a bad week for our list and although the worst percentage
numbers were posted by AQM Copper (AQM.v down 22.2%) and United Silver Corp (USC.to
down 14.5%), the real cash damage came from companies like Aurcana (AUN.v down 10.0%)
Lachlan Star (LSA.to down 8.4%) Rio Alto (RIO.to down 7.9%), OceanaGold (OGC.to down
7.8%) and Lara Exploration (LRA.v down 5.6%) that all got hit by a sectorwide pulling of the
plug.
With sale of Yellowhead Mining (YMI.to) and the covering of the Primero Mining (PPP) short
and the addition of Aurcana (AUN.v) we now have 12 stocks on our open positions list, three
less than our self-imposed maximum. Five of those stocks are green, seven red
Company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
Top Picks
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to buy C$2.04 07-apr-11 C$5.25 157.4% $6.29 tgt
Recommends
Vena Resources VEM.to hold C$0.70 31-may-09 C$0.195 -72.1% target lowered to 42c
Lupaka Gold LPK.to hold C$1.12 23-oct-11 C$0.445 -60.3% holding
Lara Expl. LRA.v buy C$1.15 08-apr-12 C$1.35 17.4% solid biz model, LT hold
Plata Latina PLA.v hold C$0.79 10-apr-12 C$0.44 -44.3% considering sale
Minera IRL IRL.to hold C$0.73 22-jul-12 C$0.96 31.5% $1.56 tg, added, new avg
OceanaGold OGC.to buy C$3.03 16-sep-12 C$3.30 8.9% $5.34 tgt growth prod
Lachlan Star LSA.to hold C$1.50 30-sep-12 C$1.42 -5.3% $2.23 1st tgt
United Silver USC.to buy C$0.245 28-oct-12 C$0.235 -4.1% new position 60c tgt
Aurcana Corp AUN.v buy C$1.07 11-nov-12 C$0.99 -7.5% new position $1.50 tgt
Smaller/Riskier
AQM Copper AQM.v hold C$0.31 16-oct-11 C$0.07 -77.4% considering sale
Focus Ventures FCV.v hold C$0.175 01-jul-12 C$0.205 17.1% revised tgt 25c
Closed in 2012 closed close PPS
Soltoro SOL.v jan'12 C$0.87 07-nov-11 C$0.94 8.0% cash moved to BCM.v
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to feb'12 C$0.84 13-oct-10 C$0.98 16.7% trade closed on ELG.v offer
Minefinders MFN feb'12 U$11.68 17-nov-11 U$14.80 26.7% target made, trade closed
Iron Creek IRN.v mar'12 C$0.58 26-sep-10 C$0.31 -46.6% time up on small bad trade
U.S. Silver USA.to apr'12 C$2.18 15-mar-12 C$1.86 -14.7% ST trade no good, cut loss
Augusta Res. AZC.to may'12 C$3.10 29-jan-12 C$2.07 -33.2% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Bellhaven BHV.v may'12 C$0.50 22-sep-10 C$0.28 -44.0% new mgmt not impressive
Zincore Metals ZNC.to may'12 C$0.325 29-jul-11 C$0.17 -47.7% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
Soltoro SOL.v may'12 C$0.70 18-mar-11 C$0.41 -41.4% bad mkt, bad trade cut loss
U.S. Silver USA.to aug'12 C$1.78 27-jul-12 C$1.36 -23.6% fail ST trade close pre split
Estrella Gold EST.v aug'12 C$0.91 27-mar-11 C$0.14 -84.6% Closed on port realignment
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'12 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.32 397.2% sell call $6.17/ Mar25
Strait Minerals SRD.v oct'12 C$0.125 09-dec-11 C$0.12 -4.0% closing coverage til FY13
Sunward Res SWD.to oct'12 C$1.47 13-mar-11 C$1.21 -17.7% sold, took loss
Gold Res Corp GORO oct'12 U$21.47 09-sep-12 U$17.40 19.0% Short trade closed
Yellowhead Min. YMI.to nov'12 C$1.00 01-apr-12 C$0.63 -37.0% sold, took loss
Primero Mining PPP nov'12 U$7.26 07-oct-12 U$6.73 7.3% Short trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v nov'12 C$3.38 07-nov-11 C$3.72 10.1% Took small profit
2009, 2010 and 2011 closed positions in appendices below
Now for some notes on a selection of the above stocks.
1

Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v): Sold. In the end I got out at a fairly nice price, but as most of
that cash (not all) was ploughed into Aurcana (AUN.v) which saw its own price drop as the
market sagged, it’s not much of a real life victory. However, BCM has now gone from our list
and its leaving gives me mixed feelings; A win is a win I suppose, but Corani is worth a lot
more than this current price. Perhaps if things clean up in 2013 and BCm makes the kind of
progress in its environment permitting that attracts the attention of the majors we can return to
this stock for another long position later. But for the time being, producers are our aim.
Aurcana Corp: Position opened. I bought on Monday as planned, then bought on Thursday
as the market sold off and cheap numbers turned up in several names, not just that of AUN.
Friday saw more weakness and sub-loonie prices which I ignored, so the start of this position
can hardly be called auspicious but it has come at a lower price than I’d expected to pay. More
on AUN in ‘Fundamentals...’ above as we check out its quarterly numbers.
OceanaGold (OGC.to), Lachlan Star (LSA.to), Rio Alto (RIO.to), others: Rather than
repeat the same story in several paragraphs, here’s a chart with these names
and a bunch of others including Fortuna (FVI.to) Argonaut (AR.to) and First Majestic (FR.to).
Apart from LSA.to that traded slightly weirdly early week, the pattern is repeated in these and
in plenty of others. What happened last week was much less to do with anything specific in
your preferred stock and much more about a big fat risk off button being pressed somewhere
by somebody. I personally think it’s all rather false and liable to bounce back starting next
week, but the problem is that I only think that rather than being anything close to sure about it
and, knowing myself as the poor judge of market momo and intraday stuff that I most certainly
am, it’s not the time to commit any more cash until the market gives me some sort of all clear.
The ones I have I’ll hold, but I’m happy about having a decent sized piece of cash still on the
sidelines here (most of which dates back to the FVI sale, fwiw) and there’s no need to go
through yet another episode of repenting at mine leisure...done that too often in 2012 already.
Lupaka Gold (LPK.to): Somebody came for LPK on Tuesday and 428k shares were traded at
or around this same 45c price we’ve seen for the last weeks, lending more weight to the
current theory that LPK is done with dropping and finally putting in a floor price. Apart from
that day trading was its usual light.
Minera IRL (IRL.to): IRL bucked the market trend and had a good week, which was pleasant
to see and it does look as though the Flash update in which we mentioned IRL as a right adding
1

price on November 9th did catch the bottom (y’see, stopped clocks really do get em right
occasionally). There was reasonable to good volume too, both in Canada and London. If
somebody larger wants in I can hardly blame them.
United Silver Corp (USC.to): Another company that gets the 3q12 coverage above. As for
trading, this chart brought me great cheer as it shows that it wasn’t just me waiting for the 25c
(and below) prices to turn up in order to buy/add. As things turned out I got enough to ratchet
my avg price down a notch and it’s now registered at 24.5c. That the last trade of the week
saw it move down to 23.5c and give us red ink is of no importance at all; this one is all about
the low downside risk and the chances of getting a big win from a deal based around Crescent,
odd pennies here and there don’t and won’t worry.
The Copper Basket
After forty-six weeks of 2012 The Copper Basket is showing a 48.63% loss to level stakes.
company ticker price 1/1/12 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Copper Fox CUU.v 1.15 398.97 418.92 1.05 -8.7%
2 Lumina Copper LCC.v 13.19 43.2 392.26 9.08 -31.2%
3 Augusta Res AZC.to 3.17 144.1 377.54 2.62 -17.4%
4 Nevada Copper NCU.to 5.18 72.8 247.52 3.40 -34.4%
5 Western Copper WRN.to 1.58 93.28 63.43 0.68 -57.0%
6 Candente Copper DNT.to 0.97 121.67 43.19 0.355 -63.4%
7 Baja Mining BAJ.to 0.80 338.5 37.24 0.11 -86.3%
8 Regulus Res REG.v 1.24 99.88 34.96 0.350 -71.8%
9 Yellowhead Min. YMI.to 0.80 52.82 32.75 0.62 -22.5%
10 Duran Ventures DRV.v 0.18 184.72 22.17 0.12 -33.3%
11 Catalyst Copper CCY.v 0.08 274.48 15.10 0.055 -25.0%
12 Excelsior Min MIN.v 0.63 56.12 11.50 0.205 -67.5%
13 AQM Copper AQM.v 0.39 105.6 7.39 0.07 -82.1%
14 Strait Minerals SRD.v 0.150 56.86 5.12 0.09 -40.0%
15 Crazy Horse CZH.v 0.35 64.48 3.87 0.06 -82.9%
Portfolio avg -48.63%
Repeat Note: I DO NOT OWN ALL THE STOCKS IN THE COPPER BASKET. I DO NOT RECOMMEND THEM AS BUYS.
THEY ARE CHOSEN AS A REPRESENTATIVE BUNCH OF THE COPPER JUNIOR EXPLORATION SECTOR, NO MORE NOR
LESS. In fact I currently own two of the stocks on the list, namely Yellowhead Mining and AQM Copper. From the
outset, back in 2010 when the first version of The Copper Basket made its debut, the idea has been to select a range of
names in the junior copper exploration sector that offer a fair representation of what’s out there, the big, medium and
tiny, the well-run, acceptable and nasty, the world class deposit potentials and the small, scratchy assets, ones that
might get taken out by majors, others that might get moved to production by the same company. The Copper Basket is
nothing less than an index, a measuring the pulse of the sector if you like.
And with that, The Copper Basket hits 20% Copper Basket 2012 average, weekly
its 2012 low. We’re now closing in on a 15%
10%
50% average basket loss and the 5%
disaster that is 2012 couldn’t be more 0%
-5%
clearly confirmed. During the week we -10%
-15%
saw three stocks make gains (NCU.to,
-20%
DRV.v, SRD.v), two remain unchanged -25%
-30%
(CUU.v, WRN.to) and the other ten
-35%
that we’re not going to list drop, but -40%
-45%
the biggest losers were seen in AQM
-50%
Copper (AQM.v down 22.2%),
Excelsior Mining (MIN.v down 16.3%)
and Baja Mining (BAJ.to down 15.4%). source: IKN Weekly calcs, TSX
1
2102/1/1
morf
egnahc
%

In world stocks news, world levels moved up to 512,304mt (+1.9%) but this time it was the
LME that saw the inventory increases, up 6.8% while Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks
dropped for the first week in many weeks, by 0.7%. As for LME cancelled warrants, they
dropped again to 14.57% of total inventories which continues the weak signalling from end
users.
It’s difficult to get enthusiastic about our copper basket names this late in the year with little
newsflow and the constant beating that the prices take, so today commentary just one of our
covered stocks
Augusta Resources (AZC.to) (AZC): We had a “late Friday night” NR out of AZC, that time
of the week when junior miners try to bury news. The NR (5) was all about the Rosemont
permitting process, was 858 words long and can be summed up in three: Permit delayed again.
If you want more, the blurb from Pres/CEO Clausen is:
"The USFS has been working diligently and we are confident that as we are
near completion, they will continue to manage the process closely so all
permits required will be received in the first quarter of next year. We are also
pleased to see the USFS referring to working towards the issuance of
Rosemont's final EIS, thereby mitigating any belief that a supplemental report
is required."
An Ottotrans of that is “we don’t know when we get the permit”. I’d expect AZC to sell off on
this news tomorrow morning, but not in a disastrous way because the writing was on the wall
about a further delay to this seemingly interminable story anyway.
Regional politics
Peru: Informal miners to strike as from tomorrow
At midnight tonight (i.e. as from Nov 19th 2012) informal “artisanal” miners are expected to
start an indefinite strike in eleven regions of the country (basically all the mining regions that
matter) in protest against government directives that force the sector’s workers to register,
become formalized etc (6). We can expect roadblocks on main arteries and headlines
forthcoming, with perhaps a main focus the South section of the main Panamericana route
along the coast of Peru, for example in the Ica and Arequipa regions around Nazca. Expect
more light than heat as a result, with the potential for some commentators to extrapolate some
new heightened risk for Peru’s mining industry as a whole. That would be an erroneous analysis
as what we’re gong to see is simply another round in the battle between the informals and the
government, not anything particularly new. It won’t stop those who want to warn of doom from
warning about doom, however.
Chile: BHP underscores the message in IKN184
The message in last week’s “existential crisis” note on Chile was backed up last week by noises
out of world bigboy miner and operator of the world’s single biggest copper mine, Chile’s La
Escondida. BHP Billiton’s (BHP) Peter Beaven, president of the base metals division, said during
a presentation last week that Chile “finds itself at a crossroads” as it needs energy supplies at a
lower cost in order to build towards competitivity. Specifically, Beaven claimed that Chile energy
was three times more expensive than in Peru of the USA and costs of operation were raised
further by the need to transport water to the high altitude regions (and that’s without
mentioning the capex for water, either). Beaven’s opinion was backed up by Codelco’s CEO
Thomas Keller who agreed that Chile’s mining industry had lost competitivity in the last few
years and this was an important challenge for the years to come. The comments came during
BHP’s announcement (7) that it is moving forward with its plans to build its own power supply,
1

the 500MW Kelar power station that was previously planned then put on ice in 2008, at a cost
to the company of around U$800m. The difference now is that BHP will build Kelar to run on
natgas rather than the original plan for coal, as by 2015 the company envisages a stronger
supply of gas will begin to run from shale projects in the region (not specified by BHP during
the presentation, but that sounds a lot like the Vaca Muerta project in Argentina).
Chile: Teck lays off at Quebrada Blanca
Add this to the list: Teck (TCK) last week laid off 159 workers from its Quebrada Blanca mine in
Chile. Here are the direct quotes from the Teck people as reported in Chile’s serious business
daily, Diario Financiero (8)
“Rising operating costs, due to lower copper grades and diminishing supergene reserves
as well as other related operational challenges, have brought the need to restructure our
operation at Quebrada Blanca”.
“It was very difficult to make the decision to reduce our workforce”, said Álvaro Díaz,
general manager at Quebrada Blanca. “We know that this is a complex moment of
uncertainty for our employees, and because of this we’ve prepared a variety of plans to
make sure they receive adequate support through this transition. By taking this decision
today we improve the long term sustainability of our Quebrada Blanca operation and the
important role it plays in the region’s economy.”
Gotta love that ManagerSpeak, no? For me, the more interesting issue is what kind of light this
casts upon Teck’s previous stated plans to move into a stage two upgrade of production at
Quebrada Blanca, as laying off 159 workers isn’t the sort of thing you’d normally do before a
big capex expansion project.
Colombia: Anglogold ratchets up
Changes at Anglogold Ashanti’s (AU) Colombia operations are a big signal that the company is
about to move up through the gears and start more aggressive developments of its projects.
Last week AU announced (9) that its Colombia country president to this time, Rafael Herz, was
being moved to VP of sustainability (supposedly a move to take charge of community and social
relations, but also a clear demotion). In place comes a team of two, with Ken Kluksdahl as new
country president (internally promoted from senior VP Americas projects) and Charles Carter
who will report directly to company CEO Mark Cutifani in South Africa. Most eyes in Colombia
will be on AU’s big La Colosa project, but we should also recall the Gramalote project, the 50/50
JV AU has with B2Gold (BTO.to). But either way, the change at the top strongly suggests that
Anglogold Ashanti will be getting serious about its plans for Colombia in 2013, anticipating the
expected (and long overdue) mining law reform next year.
Peru: Gold Fields (GFI) and Buenaventura (BVN) Chucapaca project in South Peru
under doubt due to costs
An interesting development out of South Peru last week, when Gold Fields (GFI), 51% partner
and operator (with Buenaventura 49%) of the Chucapaca gold project in that region said via
regulatory filings to the Jo’burg stock exchange that the original plans for a 30,000tpd open pit
to work the 7.6m oz Au deposit didn’t pass their financial benchmarks and the project would go
back to the drawing board, perhaps turning into an underground operation. Here’s a chunk
from South Africa’s mining site MiningMx (10) that sums things up well enough:
"The partners have studied the viability of a large open-pit operation capable of
sustaining a 30,000 tonnes per day throughput," Gold Fields said in a statement to the
JSE today. Initial studies suggested a 100,000 oz/year mine but this has since
changed in the feasibility study.
"A first draft of the feasibility study has been completed and as a result of relatively
high capital and operating costs this option would not have delivered acceptable
project returns," the company said in its statement.
As a slight sidebar, I get the impression that 100,000 oz number should in fact be 500,000 oz,
as that’s what Chucapaca was slated as in the original plans. But away from the potential typo
there, it’s apparently costs that are the hurdle Chucapaca couldn’t overcome which points firmly
1

at the high relative capex of setting up an open pit operation these days. However, this report
in Peru’s Gestion (11) featured more of the comments GFI made about having locals on-side, as
it noted GFI had previously planned to have Chucapaca up and running by the end of 2015 as
long as social community and environmental permits were awarded. The decision to re-focus
Chucapaca as an U/G (or perhaps combined open pit U/G) operation would help the
environmental footprint and make the mine easier to permit. But the main point here is that we
again see a big mining company moving away from a high capex project, a sentiment back up
by the closing quote of the MiningMx report:
Nick Holland, CEO of Gold Fields, said at the group's June quarter results that it would
seek smaller, profitable operations in the future.
“We’re exploring whether we should build 150,000 oz/year operations such as Cerro
Corona. If it makes money, what’s wrong with that?” he said.
Guatemala: The local vote against Tahoe (THO.to) (TAHO) and others
Ir’s another one of those pieces that could sit either her or in ‘Market Watching’, because
although about country risk it’s now firmly fixed on one company.
I received plenty of mails last week from you people out there (thanks to all, keep them
coming) about the ongoing issues faced by Guatemala’s mining industry, with most prompted
by the blog post on Wednesday (12) that reported on the vote by locals near the Tahoe
Resources Escobal project (known as Santa Rosa in Guatemala, via the name of the company’s
wholly-owned subsidiary that runs the show there) against mining operations of all types,
production or exploration, in the region. As reported in the post that day...
Ninety-eight percent of the population of Mataquecuintla in Jalapa voted against mining
exploration and production in their municipality during the referendum that took place on Sunday
(November 11th) in the region.
The vote was organized with the backing of the (country's official electoral body) Supreme
Electoral Tribunal, which provided the logistics, and of the Procurator of Human Rights as
guarantor. The mayor, Hugo Manfredo Loy, announced that of 10,375 votes 10.022 were for the
"no".
There are plenty of matters arising from this, so here are a few bullet points that try to cover
the main points and most of what follows are re-hashes of the answers I sent during specific
mail exchanges.
1) Yes THO had a down day Wednesday and a down week, dropping over 10%. However,
this chart that puts TAHO up
against the junior miner ETF
(GDXJ) suggests that it didn’t do
any worse than the sector average.
I’d agree that the news from
Guatemala may have been taken
as a good excuse to dump shares,
but when you sell you’ll always find
a reason for doing so anyway.
Therefore, I’d say that the vote
result news may have facilitated
the drop, but it’s unlikely to be the
main reason in a week seeing
across the board weakness in
mining equities.
1

2) Several people sent me this photo (and interestingly, they all sent the exact same
photo, same crop, same size, same everything, all
of which suggests a single source). There was little
variance in the message that came with the image,
too: The line was that this was a false ballot, pre-
printed by anti-mine people and handed out to locals
who were coerced, bribed, ordered (according to the
story) to go vote immediately. This explains the
overwhelming vote count against mining and it’s an
obvious fix.
I disagree with this take and it’s pretty obvious that
someone with a vested interest in spreading their
own propaganda has been bullshitting institutions
and fund managers. To get to the point, here’s how
I answered one of those mailers (the first one that
wrote in with the info):
What you have there is the literature that the anti-mine campaign was using to
canvass voters before the day of the vote, not an actual voting ballot paper. The
general idea is that the anti-mine brigade go round, show people that and say, "If
you're with us, this is how you should mark your ballot paper on Sunday".
Be clear that the referendum was overseen by the national electoral body, the TSE.
The vote on the day would have been fair and used blank ballots (and as a sidebar,
note that the referendum question really is quite neutrally and fairly worded, not
slanted anti-mine speak as was the case in Ecuador recently (Quimsacocha) or Peru
a few years ago (Majaz)). However, when a result is so lop-sided it's fair to say that
the anti-mine people did a better job getting their side of the argument out.
Bottom line: That photo is of a campaign leaflet, not a ballot paper.
And for the record, the ballot question translated is, “Do you agree with the development,
installation and operation of chemical metals mining projects in any part of the municipality of
Mataquescuintla, department of Jalapa?”, which is hardly the “do you agree to the rape of our
country’s natural resources by capitalist pig foreigners?” questions that are sometimes used to
sway results.
3) The next issue is whether the vote is legally binding and the answer is that
potentially it is, though it’s very unlikely. What has happened since the vote result is that THO’s
subsidiary in Guatemala has filed a blocking order (called ‘amparo’ in Spanish) which is a
perfectly normal and standard legal procedure. The order is to get the country’s Constitutional
Court (CC) to rule on whether the vote is legally binding, which the CC will do in due course
(perhaps weeks, or a few months, but it’s tough to gauge accurately). Even though the TSE
was in charge of the vote and it all went off in a standard, peaceful manner, the sheer size of
the No vote and the obivous support at national governmental executive level for mining
projects in general and THO’s Escobal in particular strongly suggest that in a country with weak
and pliable institutions such as Guatemala, the CC will rule against ratifying the vote and for the
mining company cause (and yes, I’m being diplomatic there).
4) In all honesty, I’d be extremely surprised if the CC rules in favour of the No vote of
last weekend. However, institutional weakness of the type in Guatemala is a double-edged
sword and in that lies the risk to mining reform and projects such as THO’s Escobal. For their
own reasons, anti-mining NGOs working Central America have now decided to make Escobal
their prize piñata and are now focussing their efforts on trying to get the project stopped. This
is not good for the company and particularly for its current stated timeline for development,
which requires the issuance of the operating permit by the end of this year. The problem here
is that at present Guatemalan permits of this sort are in moratorium and the country’s congress
1

has only just started debate on the proposed mining reforms (see recent IKN Weekly coverage
in last few issues). Those reforms have a long way to go, committees, debates etc, and while
that happens it’s going to be difficult to award a permit to THO at Escobal that doesn’t come
under immediate (and quite frankly justified) criticism from those who’d want the mine never to
happen. It would be making an exception to a years-old moratorium just before a whole new
law goes through the country’s legislative system that has the goal of changing the law and
ending the moratorium! With THO at Escobal now being highlighted as a sort of test case by
the anti-mining groups, it’s a tough permit to see happening right now and even if it is emitted,
Guatemala’s government opens itself up to accusations and attacks that won’t help its greater
cause of setting up a mining sector law that works.
5) The other angle that comes from an institutionally weak country such as Guatemala
is that which can be summed up by the old phrase ‘vox populi vox dei’. If (and I’m not
suggesting it will happen, only that it’s possible) anti-mining viewpoints in Guatemala reach
critical mass and the general public goes with that flow, a groundswell type protest movement
against mining would hold great sway with its country’s government. We’ve seen how El
Salvador and Costa Rica have made themselves virtual no-go mining zones in the same way
(we also note how the left wing Sandinista government in Nicaragua has moved strongly pro-
mining, so it’s wrong to try and pigeonhole this issue as a left/right divide) so if the current
Pérez Molina government, or any government that comes after it, were eventually faced with a
choice of Escobal or governability, you don’t need a PhD in social sciences to work out which
way it would jump. Guatemala and countries like it are not places in which you can guarantee
the government’s support for decisions that can be unpopular in the short-term.
The bottom line to last week in Guatemala is the same one that I’ve been making for months
on end: The country is a reasonable place in which you can place speculative, risk capital for
junior mining companies at exploration stage right now. A lot depends on the individual
circumstances of your small junior (yup folks, you gotta do that DD) and there’s also a lot riding
on the passage (or not) or the mining law reforms. However THO as Escobal is a $3Bn market
cap company and that way, way too rich for my blood in a country like that, world class rocks
or not. Anti-mining groups scored a public relations victory last week with that vote, no matter
what the CC ends up as ruling. But right now I’d say the chances of THO getting a workable
operating permit for Escobal that comes inside its projected timeline of 4q12 doesn’t cause
massed protests as minimal. There’s a lot more risk around this project than anyone committed
to the company will let on. I wish them luck but until the mine is a done deal it’s extremely easy
to avoid it as an investment vehicle.
MAG Silver (MVG) (MAG.to) given 48 hours to get out of Cinco de Mayo
A bit of a stop press report, arriving at this desk late Sunday afternoon. According to reports,
The ‘El Barzón’ group that had its leader and his wife assassinated recently and claim that MAG
silver (MAG.to) (MVG) was behind the killing, yesterday afternoon resolved to kick MAG out of
its Cinco de Mayo project. Here’s Mexico’s newspaper of record, Reforma (13):
Landholders from Benito Juárez in the municipality of Buenaventura, decided during an
official assembly to expel the Canadian mining company Cascabel (wholly owned
subsidiary of MAG Silver) and establish a 100 year prohibition on exploration by any
mining company that wishes to establish operations in the zone.
“This agreement, reached with 240 of the 400 total landowners present, is homage to
the sacrifice of the life of our compatriot Ismael Solorio and of his wife Martha Solis,
assassinated in the environmental fight of this zone”, commented Luz Estelka Castro,
the groups lawyer.
The 240 landholder members means that quorum was made and of the 240 present the voted
was reportedly unanimous. Here are more details from this report (14) from Mexico’s daily
Progreso.
In the proclamation of the meeting of November 17th 2012, registered in the National
Agrarian Register that finished at 2pm, the followed was approved: Restrict permits of
1

any mining company for a period of 100 years for exploration or mineral production,
and if in the future a new application is made to explore or produce it must be
accompanies by studies, permits and corresponding authorizations and approved
unanimously by the assembly.
“The company El Cascabel, MAG Silver o Majors and/or its subsidiaries are not
authorized to explore or produce...A period of 48 hours is established, from the end of
this meeting, for the company to withdraw all its machinery, equipment and materials
and well as its personnel from from the Benito Juárez area”.
“This courageous and firm decision of the community is the base to confront any
attempt by the mining company to pressure legally, paralegally or illegally in order to
extract the mineral wealth from the Benito Juárez area, municipality of Buenaventura.
At the same time it is also a call of hope for communities all over Mexico and Latin
America that face the voracity of transnational extractive companies, hungry for basic
materials and natural resources.”
I think it’s fair to say that MAG has a problem.
Market Watching
B2Gold (BTO.to) back at a buyable price
Over the months and years I’ve made no secret about liking this quality gold mining company
and along the way we’ve registered some decent winning trades in the stock, too (check below,
but one trade in 2009/200 finished +68.2%, next in 2010 finished +21.0%, next in 2010
finished +34.5% and the latest in 2011 closed +52.5%). It’s a stock I’ve track pretty closely
since then too, having kicked myself on a couple of occasions in late 2011 and 2012 for missing
good looking entry points and later watching the price rise without me on board.
Last week saw BTO sell off pretty sharply and reach the $3.50 share price I pencilled in a few
weeks ago, on considering the shape of the company if the currently M&A plans with CGA
Mining (CGA.to) close correctly. BTO sits this weekend at $3.53 and I’ve spent much of the last
48 hours trying to convince myself not to buy the stock next week. I’ve just about done that
and so I’m not calling a buy on it right now here today, but if in the next 48 hours the mining
sector market stabilizes, don’t be at all surprised to see a Flash update arriving in your mailbox
headlined “buying BTO” or something or that ilk.
1

Fortuna (FVI.to) (FSM) goes under $5
It was only last week that these words appeared...
...that alluded to potential value if FVI saw a drop under $5 and all of a sudden, the window is
opened.
I’ll be frank and say that with AUN on board, exposure to silver via more modest exploration
stories (FCV, PLA, USC etc) a preference for gold producers for the next purchase (BTO now
topping list at this new price deck) and a desire to keep a decent sized cash position (because
I’m whussy) I’m not a buyer of FVI right now. However, this is more about you than me and it
would be remiss not to mention this price opportunity today. FVI might go lower still and I’m
not saying it’s a no-brainer no-loser (if it were I’d be buying) but at Friday’s close of $4.68 and
considering silver and gold market prices, this is a value entry point on fundies.
Semi OT: In a frustrating and downright rotten year we call 2012 FVI has stood out personally
for two reasons. First, the call to sell it in late March was the best single call I’ve made all year
and second, the decision to be patient and let a reasonable exit price come to me in the months
that followed was eventually rewarded too.
Darwin Resources (DAR.v) update
In what seems like an age ago, rather than six months (must be the wretched 2012 for the
sector that blunts memories this way) we ran a
short feature on Darwin Resources (DAR.v) in
IKN157 dated May 6th. The company had just
IPO’d at that time and I had the chance to meet
up with company head honcho George Carman.
In the IKN157 note we summed up by saying it
was a serious exploration company, worth
watching but no reco until we see hard results
from the explorations. Then it was 40c, just
after we featured it the stock sunk from its IPO
level and from then until now it’s bounced
around the 20c level, as this chart shows.
1

Also since that time there’s been a change in focus at DAR.v, because the company couldn’t
reach a satisfactory agreement with locals at its Alto Quemada project in Arequipa region Peru,
so has switched its attention to the North of Peru, specifically to its Suriloma project in the La
Libertad region.
That’s the preamble and catch-up out the way, which means we now get to the reason for
featuring DAR.v on these pages this week, the NR out of the company last Wednesday
November 14th (15) with results from trenching and channel sampling at the ‘La Puerta’ target,
one of six at Suriloma. This is the type of NR that interests geols more than markets, but all the
same DAR.v seems to be onto something similar to Sulliden’s Shahuindo deposit in
neighbouring Cajamarca province (NB: you don’t need to like the company on top of Shahuindo
to see that the deposit is a good one). There’s a long way to go for DAR.v at Suriloma, but the
words quoted from Pres/CEO Carman look fair enough:
"La Puerta is proving to be a substantial epithermal structure hosting at least two sub-parallel
zones each up to 25 metres wide, that we have mapped for 1km of strike. The quartz stockwork
mineralization is fully oxidised at surface and offers the potential for a moderate to large
tonnage deposit. In addition, the opportunity exists for narrower zones of bonanza grade gold -
silver to be developed as veins within the mineralized stockwork. The Darwin team are excited
by the surface results so far, and we look forward to advancing the property to first stage
drilling. We are aiming for drill permits to be in place Q1 2013."
The latest financial report (16) shows that DAR has been careful with its money and right now
has an IKN estimated $2m in cash still at bank from its original IPO rasing of $4m. With the
results from early stage exploration at Suriloma now rolling in and looking promising, this is still
a tinycap worth keeping an eye on as it moves to drill target definition and a likely drilling
program in 2013. It’s not a stock I’d personally buy right now but at 26.2m shares out, a lot of
those held by tight hand institutional support, a brains trust of good straightshooter geols trying
to make real discoveries (instead of mining the market) and its $4.85m market cap, the
package may appeal to those who like them high risk/high reward.
Therefore consider today’s short update on DAR as a small headsup and an invitation to start
doig your own DD on the company. It’s one I’m watching and after its false start at Alto
Quemada it’s starting to show results from its grassroots exploration.
Orko Silver (OK.v): The retail pump gathers pace
Here’s a mail received from reader LS this weekend:
Just thought you would like to be informed of Orko Silver giving the impression they are
going to be taken out on the Korelin Economics Report. A friend of mine sent it to me,
so your prediction of a BS retail pump is playing out as per IKN173. (17) . It’s Segment
5 you want to listen to it.
Thanks LS, but as it’s Sunday I
have better things to do than listen
to Al Korelin* and paid-for
informercials masquerading as
insight and objective information.
But it’s worth featuring here to
underscore the M.O. of companies
like OK.v, who’ll tell you exactly
what you want to hear whenever
you want to hear it. Just to be
clear, OK and its La Preciosa
project comes a long way down my
list of potential M&A targets for
serious mining companies and as
this chart may remind you, back in
April Pan American Silver (PAA.to)
(PAAS) agreed.
2

*I have better things to do Monday thru Saturday too
Exeter Resources (XRC.to) (XRA) redux
Well, I got this one right at least; We mentioned XRC as part of our write-up on the Hochschild
(HOC.L) friendly bid for Andina Minerals (ADM.v) last week. We pointed out that although XRC
was same metal, same region and same beaten-to-death share price moves as ADM in recent
times, there are big differences between the projects which stem from the size and capex
requirements of XRC’s Caspiche (they’re big). Cut to the action and this 10 day chart shows the
big ramp-up XRC enjoyed on the back of the ADM/HOC news two Thursdays ago, followed by
the quick retreat that started the day after then really set in last week. Today XRC.to finds itself
at $1.27, lower than before the ADM deal.
Big capex low grade gold projects are out of fashion, period.
Gold Resource Corp (GORO) last call
We note that Gold Resource Corp’s (GORO) 3q12 financials finally came out last week (after
being delayed) and were in fact very close to our expected numbers. We also had another
weirdly staged conference call (transcript here (18)) that shed little light on the manifold
troubles at the company and reads more like a corporate presentation promo than anything
approaching a critical examination of directors by their shareholders. No matter, as for the
moment we’ll stay neutral GORO and watch from the sidelines. As for the key dividend issue,
the company strongly hinted that the 6c dividend will be kept in place for the rest of 2012 (as
expected and noted last week)but also left the door open for a change in the dividend policy in
FY13 (again, no surprise). Therefore and aside any developments in the class action suit now
being faced by the company, we’d look to the 4q12 production report out some time in January
as the next real fundamental news from GORO.
U.S. Silver & Gold (USA.to) quarter and further thoughts
I made mention of U.S. Silver and Gold (USA.to) last week, noted the subdued reaction the
company received from anal ysts after its recent
USA.v: Quarterly Silver Production (oz)
site tour beano, the late week drop in the share
(3q12 AuEq prod incl Drumlummon gold)
price and the upcoming 3q12 numbers. We got 800000
those numbers from USA.to on schedule Tuesday 700000
600000
evening (19) and although we’re not going
500000
deeply into the company, here are just a couple
400000
of the generated charts so from the numbers
300000
and further thoughts on what this company is 200000
trying to achieve and why I don’t think it’s a buy 100000
right now. Here’s the production schedule and 0
3q12 is now a composite total, featuring the
567,555 oz silver produced at the main Galena
mine and then a silver equivalent from the 2,223
2
90q1 90q2 90q3 90q4 01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3
source: company filings

oz gold produced at the small-scale Drumlummon operation that came into the company via the
RX Gold merger (we convert those gold ounces into AgEq at 1:50).
Next is cash cost on those AqEq ounces after by product credits (lead zinc and copper remain
by-product credits, the Drumlummon gold is considered a co-product and not a by-product
credit, so these two charts count the same
beans and jive correctly). As we see, costs USA.v: Cash cost per quarter
25
(3q12 AuEq prod incl Drumlummon gold)
remain high and it’s one of the things
addressed by USA.to management in the 20
3q12 conference call and the MD&A, with
15
guidance for more efficient operations and
lower cash costs for 4q12 (again we see a 10
company promising a better 4q12, quite the
5
habit this year). With average realized prices
for silver under $28/oz for the quarter, profits 0
remain thin and it’s the same story at USA.to
as ever: This is a leveraged play on the metal,
period. If you like the chances of silver going
up to $35/oz and above, get on board this
one for a high beta correlation and bigger wins than just playing SLV. If silver goes down
however, you do too.
But it’s the final chart of the three I wanted to display here that’s got me thinking about what
USA.to is today compared to the company its
new management says it wants to be. The
working capital position dropped
considerably in the quarter and now stands
at $22.2m as at end 3q12, which compares
to $40.44m in 3q11. That’s a big drop, which
was partially explained by the company as
suffering from one-time fees connected with
the RX Gold merger, but all the same it’s the
absolute sum of cash USA.to has available
that gives me pause. After all, that’s not
much capex grunt with which it can execute
its grand plans to be a 500,000 oz silver
producer by 2015 and again indicates USA.to
is planning on being a paper printer (or perhaps taking significant financial debt on board its
financial structure) in order to fund its expansion plans.
Seriously, where else is the cash coming from? At its sweetest spot back in the first half of,
when cash costs were $18/oz and silver market prices were regularly $20/oz higher, USA
returned net profits of $5m and $6m per quarter. Yes that’s useful money but even an optimum
performance such as those (instead of the ongoing mediocrity of the last four quarters) isn’t
going to add the type of cash USA would need for organic growth. I see USA.to disappointing
its backers in one of two ways as this story develops; either it’s going to growth less quickly
than the current aggressive plans portray, or its’ going to dilute current holders and take away
their projected upside. The company might well deliver on its plans and see its market cap
growth as a result, but if the share price stays in the same bracket as that happens, it’s only
those who draw salaries from the structure who end up winning.
Jaguar Mining (JAG.to) (JAG) 3q12 earnings weren’t good
We gave the headsup last week in IKN184, then the Flash update came out before the bell on
Tuesday (see appendix 1) to state clearly that JAG is not a buy. This turned out to be the right
call as this five day chart amply demonstrates:
2
80q1 80q3 90q1 90q3 01q1 01q3 11q1 11q3 21q1 21q3
source: company filings
srallod
SU
USA.to: Working Capital per qtr
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
70q4 80q1 80q2 80q3 80q4 90q1 90q2 90q3 90q4 01q1 01q2 01q3 01q4 11q1 11q2 11q3 11q4 21q1 21q2 21q3
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

That’s a nasty drop by anyone’s standards, 28.4% down from this time last week and on strong
volume. It also means that JAG will likely come under pressure from the New York Stock
Exchange over listing requirements, as it has only recently regained compliance (20) for its
NYSE listing that requires the stock’s share price to be at a minimum average of U$1.00
averaged over a 30 day period. As the NYSE has already had its eye on JAG it’s bound to be
under scrutiny right now and if it can’t regain its previous $1+ price it’ll be in danger of losing
its main board listing. I’m going to keep an eye on JAG and it may even present another one of
those bounce-back opportunities before the next set of numbers are reported, but for all intents
and purposes our previous working theory of JAG as a turnaround play and a real potential
investment (rather than a possible risky flip) must be put on ice until the company can show
better results. Not a company for me right now, sadly. Maybe 2013.
Conclusion
IKN185 is done, we close with bullet points:
• It turned out to be a different type of Weekly this time, full of snippety bits of
information on plenty of issues and stocks instead of deeper focus on a few. That might
be because I’m seeing opportunities arise in plenty of places while discarding potential
of others, so my eyes are all over the place right now.
• As for one opportunity above others, put B2Gold (BTO.to) back front and centre thanks
to this price sag. I’m not diving in immediately but if next week gives the right signals I
may well buy before IKN186 is a reality. If so expect a Flash update pre-purchase and
expect a deeper fundies look at the stock next weekend.
• It was a hairy week and the midweek sell-off was no fun, but unless it accelerates
significantly in the next three days (remember Thanksgiving lull) I’m not going to worry
about it. Call me stupid at your own leisure later.
• The MAG Silver (MVG) (MAG.to) story will be interesting to watch. Especially as I’m not
a shareholder.
The top long-term pick is Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to). I thank you in advance for any feedback
sent in. Flash updates will be sent promptly if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Otto
2

Appendix 1: Flash update of Tuesday November 13th
Good morning, a touch before 8am local time, still an hour and a half before the daily market bunfight begins.
Jaguar Mining (JAG) filed its 3q12 last night...
http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1069301/jaguar-mining-reports-third-quarter-2012-financial-results-sees-further-cash-
cost-improvement
...your author has had fun with the SEDAR filings this morning and as a result here's a quick note. Details can come at
the weekend but Flash updates are for the bottom line calls and in this case I cannot see a trade in JAG at the moment.
There are good things in the numbers and the company is clearly making some progress with its turnaround plan,
particularly when it comes to corporate costs. However, the main problem is that it's not producing enough gold, with the
main soft spot an underperformance at its Turmalina mine which has been guided to continue in the quarter(s) to come.
According to the parameters I'd set as some sort of benchmark in order to be able to recommend the stock as a trade,
costs came in just about in line but revenues missed by around $6m. With the guidance given in this 3q12 report we
can't expect much improvement on those key revenues either and there's a noticeable extension to the timelines, with
the company now referencing "end 2013" as its target for the completion of the turnaround.
I have no desire to keep anyone on tenterhooks until the weekend about this stock, therefore the call today is to wait on
the sidelines as JAG may well provide a better entry point in the months ahead, in price and/or timing terms. Today
Jaguar Mining (JAG) (JAG.to) is NOT a buy.
Appendix 2: Flash update of Thursday November 15th
Good morning, around 7am (2 1/2 hrs to the open) on a warm and sunny Thursday morning. A couple of notes on three
of our covered companies starting with our top pick (and biggest personal holding), Rio Alto (RIO.to)
RIO Alto (RIO.to)
I've taken a few comments and queries on the difference between RIO's quarterly results and my estimates for the
quarter (NR here)...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/rio-alto-generates-34-3-120000176.html
..., which had higher numbers. That's fair enough so a few quick lines here (with more in the weekend's edition, for
sure). The main point is that any anal yst's estimates are just that. RIO is a still a rapid growth story and it's also still
relatively small compared to the more mature and multiple-mine tier one and two producers, companies which can be
tracked more accurately by their very nature. Smaller growth companies do something on their financials that we don't
expect, such as in RIO this quarter buying land rights, and it makes a noticeable dent in a single quarter's numbers. So
quickly and in three points, RIO's lower numbers compared to the IKN forecast were due to three things
1) My estimate is on EBIT, not bottom line
2) RIO sold and booked revenues on ~37k oz gold, which is ~10k oz less than 3q12 production
3) RIO paid out $18.5m for surface rights acquisitions
Meanwhile, costs were fine. RIO noted its cash cost for ounces sold wa $690/oz, higher than in previous quarters. But if
we take costs against produced ounces, that drops to $560/oz which is inside guidance. Yes there is some cost
pressure but nothing out of the ordinary. Also, I remind readers that 3q12 was always going to be the soft quarter of
2012 (and all future quarters, 2013 and beyond for what that's worth) as the higher grading material runs out and the
company moves to its new higher throughput rate.
RIO shares sold off yesterday, but very much in line with the rest of the market. I have no problems with the RIO booked
numbers and therefore reiterate the company's Top Pick status. There's a lot more to come from RIO in the quarters
ahead.
United Silver Corp (USC.to)
A quick line to note that I took advantage of the 25c and sub 25c prices that appeared in USC yesterday and bought
what I consider my full position (for the time being at least). Meanwhile a first pass look at USC's quarter filed last night
shows a working capital of $1m, a gross profit of $790,000 on operations and a net loss of $1.89m, mainly due to the
company spending $1.76m on exploration expenses, plus taking the anticipated financial expenses due to its loan from
Hale. I'll be taking a clsoer look at the line items today but as seen so far all this is inside the bounds of the expected
and I again note that the profit generating parts of USC alone justify its current sub-$19m market cap, with the Crescent
mine the upside growth potential (and where the company is spending its cash, apparently). I'm happy to have waited
for the right price to come along for the full entry here. Reiterated recommend.
Aurcana (AUN.v)
I also bought some more AUN.v yesterday, as even though i wasn't planning to do so after my Monday purchases, the
low prices that showed up tempted me. I now have more AUN.v than I'd planned on taking originally, but it's not an
overexaggerated position and I'm comfortable enough. Average buy price will be $1.07 in Sunday's edition. As for the
company's 3q12 numbers (NR here)...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/aurcana-reports-third-quarter-financial-130000251.html
... I'm fine with them (again, more details Sunday). What I have noticed is that, speaking generally, people and analysts
that have followed and reco'd AUN for an extended period are more gumbly about the slower than expected progress at
the new Shafter operation. This isn't a surprise to me and I remind readers that my single main concern about AUN is its
tendency to over-promise/under-deliver (OPUD). Due to this i've been very conservative in my 2013 production
modelling and given myself a lot of leeway on the numbers (even more than usual when checking out a company), but
even taking this approach there's a lot to like about AUN once Shafter is declared commercial and is running as a
profitable mine instead of dragging on cash. On that subject, I was happy to see working cap come in at $10m and as
further capex bills from this point are now minimal, chances of equity dilution are minimized. I'm good about the general,
strategic call on this stock. This is the right time to take a first position in AUN and enjoy a sweet spot of share price
appreciation as Shafter moves into production and La Negra grows.
2

Footnotes, Appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) http://www.businessinsider.com/new-dividend-tax-2012-11
(2)http://myownmarketnarrative.blogspot.com/2012/11/sunday-reading.html
(3) http://www.investmentrevaluationcatalyst.com/
(4) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/rio-alto-produces-47-010-110000406.html
(5) http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1073227/augusta-resource-provides-rosemont-permitting-update
(6) http://www.rpp.com.pe/2012-11-18-mineros-artesanales-anuncian-paro-indefinido-en-once-regiones-del-peru-
noticia_541369.html
(7) http://www.aminera.com/component/content/article/114-expomin2010/44705-bhp-presentara-en-dos-semanas-
estudio-de-impacto-ambiental-de-central-a-gas-en-el-norte.html
(8) http://www.df.cl/minera-quebrada-blanca-anuncia-el-recorte-de-159-puestos-de-trabajo/prontus_df/2012-11-
15/173135.html
(9) http://www.dinero.com/empresas/articulo/de-presidente-vicepresidente-anglogold/164323
(10) http://www.miningmx.com/page/news/gold_and_silver/1462534-Gold-Fields-returns-Chucapaca-to-drawing-
board#.UKj2BeTau88
(11) http://gestion.pe/empresas/gold-fields-ve-muy-costoso-proyecto-oro-chucapaca-
2051757?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
(12) http://www.incakolanews.blogspot.com/2012/11/what-neighbours-think-of-tahoe.html
(13) http://www.reforma.com/estados/articulo/679/1357828/?Titulo=acuerdan-expulsar-a-minera-de-chihuahua
(14) http://www.proceso.com.mx/?p=325558
(15) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/darwin-channel-results-highlight-gold-134500901.htm
(16) http://www.darwinresources.com/i/pdf/DAR-FS-12Aug31.pdf
(17) http://www.kereport.com/2012/11/17/hard-assets-san-francisco-2012/
(18) http://seekingalpha.com/article/1011551-gold-resource-corp-management-discusses-q3-2012-results-earnings-call-
transcript?part=single
(19) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-silver-gold-reports-adjusted-210000048.html
(20) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/jaguar-mining-regains-compliance-nyse-205400629.html
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2011
Closed in 2011 closed close PPS
Sunward Res SWD.v jan'11 C$1.05 21-nov-10 C$1.63 55.2% target made, trade closed
Serengeti Res SIR.v mar'11 C$0.245 05-dec-10 C$0.285 16.3% sold pre-tgt, ST trade fail
Fronteer Gold FRG apr'11 U$2.37 03-may-09 U$15.24 543.0% buyout, trade closed
Minefinders MFN apr'11 U$9.09 07-nov-10 U$16.89 85.8% target made, trade closed
Metalline Min. MMG may'11 U$1.04 26-jan-11 U$0.89 -14.4% exit, resource disappointed
Peregrine Met PGM.to jul'11 C$0.87 06-mar-11 C$2.60 198.9% buyout offer, closed
Dynasty Metals DMM.to jul'11 C$4.20 03-may-09 C$2.85 -32.1% Sold. Fail. Move on.
Aura Silver AUU.v aug'11 C$0.22 13-oct-10 C$0.16 -36.4% Bad pick. Take loss
U.S. Silver USA.v aug'11 C$0.52 26-jan-11 C$0.71 36.5% closed to make room
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'11 C$2.80 12-may-11 C$4.27 52.5% target made, trade closed
Bear Creek Min. BCM.v sep'11 C$3.80 27-may-11 C$4.17 9.7% macro sell call victim
Minefinders MFN sep'11 U$14.70 10-aug-11 U$15.15 3.1% macro sell call victim
Great Panther GPR.to sep'11 C$3.03 22-aug-11 C$2.64 -12.9% macro sell call victim
Fortuna Silver FVI.to sep'11 C$1.07 03-may-09 C$5.36 400.9% sold 20%, macro sell call
Focus Ventures FCV.v nov'11 C$0.40 20-apr-10 C$0.20 -50.0% cut losses, bad trade
Regulus Res. REG.v dec'1 C$1.17 14-aug-11 C$0.52 -55.6% cut on news of poor 43-101
2009 and 2010 closed positions in appendices below
2

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2010
Closed in 2010 closed close PPS
B2Gold Corp BTO.to Jan'10 C$0.88 08-nov-09 C$1.49 68.2% target made, trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v Jan'10 C$0.18 23-aug-09 C$0.40 122.2% target made, trade closed
MAG Silver MVG mar'10 U$5.60 23-nov-09 U$7.28 30.0% closed in pdac week
Riverside Res RRI.v mar'10 C$0.435 20-sep-09 C$0.60 37.9% closed in pdac week
Amarillo Gold AGC.v mar'10 C$0.81 31-may-09 C$0.70 -13.6% closed in pdac week
B2Gold Corp BTO.to apr'10 C$1.24 18-feb-10 C$1.50 21.0% target made, trade closed
Lumina Copper LCC.v apr'10 C$0.84 14-jun-09 C$1.55 51.2% total position now sold
Troy Resources TRY.to may'10 C$1.10 03-may-09 C$2.25 104.5% sold on negative results
AuEx Ventures XAU.to may'10 C$2.51 24-may-09 C$3.38 34.7% trade closed
Nevada Copper NCU.to jun'10 C$3.27 14-mar-10 C$2.03 -37.9% need to lower Cu exposure
Carpathian Gold CPN.to jun'10 C$0.39 14-mar-10 C$0.35 -10.3% too exposed to cap raising
Amerix PM Corp APM.v jun'10 C$0.065 08-nov-09 C$0.05 -23.1% victim of macro bear
Antares Minerals ANM.v jun'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$2.10 47.9% sold half
Vena Resources VEM.to jun'10 C$0.37 31-may-09 C$0.23 -37.8% sold half
Minera Andes MAI.to sep'10 C$0.75 28-jul-10 C$0.95 26.7% ST trade closed
Gold-Ore Res GOZ.to sep'10 C$0.52 01-aug-10 C$0.75 44.2% target made, trade closed
B2Gold Corp BTO.to sep'10 C$1.45 25-may-10 C$2.01 34.5% target made, trade closed
Blue Sky Uran BSK.v oct'10 C$0.41 19-may-10 C$0.22 -46.3% v small v bad trade closed
Dia Bras Expl DIB.v oct'10 C$0.14 30-aug-09 C$0.35 150.0% target made, trade closed
S. Amer. Silver SAC.to nov'10 C$1.38 24-oct-10 C$1.60 -15.9% loss on short, small fail
Ventana Gold VEN.to nov'10 C$7.92 27-jun-10 C$13.51 70.6% trade closed on buyout
Lumina Copper LCC.v nov'10 C$1.42 11-aug-10 C$3.65 157.0% trade closed
Antares Minerals ANM.v dec'10 C$1.42 06-dec-09 C$8.40 491.5% trade closed
Rio Alto Mining RIO.v dec'10 C$0.69 23-mar-10 C$2.16 213.0% trade closed
Coro Mining COP.to dec'10 C$0.585 03-oct-10 C$1.24 112.0% target made, trade closed
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions, 2009
Closed positions closed closing PPS
Cardero Res CDY/CDU.to May'09 U$1.20 03-May-09 U$0.87 -27.5% sold on negative news
Eastmain Res. ER.to May'09 C$1.04 06-May-09 C$1.315 26.4% trade closed
Radius Gold RDU.v May'09 C$0.165 03-May-09 C$0.235 42.4% trade closed
Latin Amer Min. LAT.v May'09 C$0.12 03-May-09 C$0.158 29.2% trade closed
Aquiline Res. AQI.to July'09 C$2.03 16-Jun-09 C$1.68 -17.2% took loss, bad timing
Chariot Resources CHD.to Aug'09 C$0.20 12-Jul-09 C$0.415 107.5% trade closed
Castle Gold CSG.v Sep'09 C$0.64 02-Aug-09 C$0.60 -6.3% ST trade didn't work out
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to Sep'09 C$2.30 12-May-09 C$4.50 95.7% profit taken
Los Andes Copper LA.v Sep'09 C$0.09 21-Jun-09 C$0.09 0% trade closed
Pediment Gold PEZ.to Oct'09 C$0.80 09-Aug-09 C$1.00 25.0% trade closed
Minera Andes MAI.to Oct'09 C$0.68 03-May-09 C$0.71 4.4% too much bad news
Dynasty Metals DMM.to Nov'09 C$4.18 03-May-09 C$6.01 43.8% half sold
Rusoro Mining RML.v Nov'09 C$0.55 03-May-09 C$0.57 3.6% underperformed
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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